The Ringer NFL Show - Don't Panic About Jalen Hurts, Eagles Fans! Plus, the State of the Commanders, Dream Playoff Scenarios, and More Big Takeaways From Week 15 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: December 20, 2022

Ben and Sheil begin the pod by sharing their reactions to the news about Jalen Hurts's injury and speculating about how the Eagles will adjust heading into the playoffs. They then debate Washington head coach Ron Rivera's coaching potency and talk about what next year's Packers are going to look like (11:10). Next, Ben breaks down an underrated 2022 draft class and Sheil explains why Bill Belichick should not get any more passes as an elite coach (29:44). They end the pod by dreaming up their perfect playoff pairings (47:39). Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mac Jones is ripped. Matt Patricia's calling plays. The Celtics are title favorites. And The Ringer has a new Boston show. I'm Brian Barrett, host of Off the Pike, the show covering all things Boston sports. I'll have shows multiple times a week covering your favorite teams and with your favorite ringer and local guests.

Plus, maybe Bill will stop by to rant about the socks. Follow off the pike with me, Brian Barrett, now on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Taken. I'm Shield Kapari. As always, joined by Ben Solak. we come to you every week after Monday night football where the Packers this week beat the Rams 24 to 12. We also got some breaking Monday news, which always throws a little wrinkle into the extra point taking plans with Jalen Hertz's injury. We're going to get to all of it today. Benjamin Solac, how we do it. What a weekend of NFL football.

You got to kind of squint so you don't catch the Monday night football game we just watched, which is just like over in a pleasant amount of time. like had a few plays. You're like, oh, nice. And you kind of just get past it. But man, Saturday into Sunday. That's the best weekend I can remember quite some time. Really enjoyed it.

It was fantastic. No doubt about it. So like I said, normally, listen, we lead the show with Monday night football. We're going to get to Monday night football. I've got a Packers take here coming up. But we're going to lead with the big news of the day. And that's that Jalen Hertz suffered a shoulder sprain during the Eagles win over the Chicago bear.

So listen, we each give three takes. We end with the extra. point taken. My first take on the show is that Eagles fans should be concerned but not panicked about the Jalen Hertz injury. I really, you know, the panic, I'm sure Ben, you're on text threads or messages of that. People are flipping out. People are not flipping out. You're trying to get a gauge on how concern you should be if you're the Eagles or an Eagles fan right now. So let's get the details of this. End of the third quarter, Eagles run a little zone read. Travis Gibson lands on Hertz. His right shoulder kind of gets crunched into the ground. Ben, I said it on the Ringers-Filly special show.

It's the first time I can remember this year where Jalen Hertz was slow to get up after a play. And this is a guy who's the ball is in his hands a lot on pretty much every play. He's running the ball. He's passing the ball. And this was the first time. So he's got the shoulder sprain. How long is he going to be out? I think Jeff McLean of the inquires said he's in danger of missing the next two games. So here's the thing. one hand, you can really spin this in a positive way for the Eagles. They are well built to handle this setback. They have built a big lead in the NFC where they just need to win one of their final three games at Dallas, home against New Orleans, home against the Giants. They just have to win one

and they lock up the one seed in the NFC. That's all they need to do. So you can say, you know what, it's not that big of a deal. It comes at an okay time for them. They should be able to win one of those games with or without hurts, and then you look ahead to the playoffs. Now, that two-week time period, Ben, that could turn into a five-week time period because there's a little caveat here. If they clinch, then all of a sudden, they're facing an interesting decision about what to do. I mean, if they beat the Cowboys here coming up and they're six-point underdog, so they're not supposed to win that game. But if they win that game with Gardner Minshu, they literally have nothing to play for in terms of playoff seating in the final two weeks of the season.

So this is a team that is pretty conservative with injuries, with preseason, that kind of thing. You wonder, would they just sit hurts? And if they do, now of a sudden, you're talking about going into the divisional round with your starting quarterback having not played football in a game situation in five weeks. So you got to balance those two things out. So that's kind of where I'm at with this injury. Now, here's my concern. If you're a fan or, you know, someone who says, well, no, this is a lot worse than you're making it out

to be shield. Here's the deal. My concern is not that they're going to lose the one seat. I think they're going to get the one seat. Your concern would have to be, does Hertz look like the same guy when he returns? Are they comfortable using him in the designed run game? Will he be rusty in his first game action? Because you know what? That first game action could be against Michael Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round at Lincoln Financial Field. Those are impossible questions to answer, but that's kind of my bigger concern. I think they're going to be fine. in terms of playoff positioning. I think they're in a good spot in that he can take his time and come back when he's ready.

My concern would be what does he look like when he comes back? Where are you on sort of the panic meter and what I just laid out in terms of jail and hurts? Yeah, it's funny because when you have a quarterback who's just out for five weeks with injury, you don't think about him coming back in the regular season being like, oh, I wonder what the rust will be like. But once you go to playoff time, you're like, oh, I wonder what the rust is going to be like, you know, it starts to become a factor. Like it in my head with logic, I'm like, oh, Hurts been playing a lot of football. Can't get a couple weeks off.

It's going to be great. It's going to be a nice break. But then, you know, you're like that panic meter, like you say goes off, especially because I'm an Eagles fan. I'm just like, what if he comes back? He takes a couple of drives to get ready and he's afraid to get hit. Like, you know, you kind of spiral the whole thing. I agree with you that over the course of the day on Monday when the betting markets are

just moving the lines towards the Cowboys, the Cowboys are increasingly becoming favorites, while also Patrick Mahomes was increasingly becoming the favorite for MVP. I mean, he was not on Monday morning and is now as we're recording on Monday evening. And it starts to become clear like, oh, Jalen Hertz is like he's hurt after that Bears game. Like there's something up. You go into a state of total panic. And then now I think like with the news are like separated, excuse me, strained AC joint in. I've seen the throwing shoulder and I've also seen not the throwing shoulder.

So I don't even know if it's a throwing shoulder. Yeah, it's the throwing shoulder. Yeah. It was the main thing I heard. but I'd also seen non-throwing shoulder reports. When you hear that, you go, okay, well, what do quarterbacks do with strange throwing shoulders? And, you know, Jimmy Groppo had it. It didn't miss any time when he had it back in January.

Kyler in 2020 had it missed no time. Drew Locke in 2020 had it missed two games. CJ Stroud separated his AC joint this year in college and missed no time. Bryce Young missed one game with this injury. But also, sometimes when those players came back, you know, the velocity on the ball wasn't necessarily there to the same degree. and like, you know, they're a little bit off throwing. Well, Jaylen Hertz played in this, with his injury in the fourth quarter and, like,

got a deep ball to AJ Brown, which has kind of been a big part of his role in the Eagles passing game this year. So you kind of gather all the day and you go, all right, you know what? Like, if the Cowboys game were for the division and tied records, what hurts probably to be playing in this game, yeah. And the Eagles are both lucky and rewarded for the work they've done to put themselves in the spot where they've only lost one game. They've handled their business late. They have gotten out of like week five games and week three games with wins, such that they're protected and they're able to put Gardner Minshu out there.

So I think like, you know, all together, if you're the Eagles, you're like, okay, we've largely dodged bullets this year. Here's one. Let's just be really, really careful with it. The other part of this, that's very funny is the Eagles play the Cowboys in Week 16. Hated division rival. Cowboys still have a point, no, no, no, no, 1% chance to win the division. So you want to win the game, whatever.

more valuable to the team is the game they have next week against the New Orleans Saints in week 17 because they could swing in beating the Saints the Saints first round pick from like being like 11th or 12th like a top five pick. And the reason why the Saints first round pick matters to the Eagles is because they own it. This is a rare case of a team very late in the season being able to improve their draft position in the first round by winning. That's very interesting. And so I wouldn't even be surprised if we see a little Jalen Hertz out for the Cowboys.

Maybe if the Eagles were like, you know, really tactical, they'd like also rest some more starters for the Cowboys. And then just throw all the starters back here for the Saints game. They're not going to do that. But I think you could see Jaylen Hertz miss this week 16 game and then get some week 17 action. Eagles will be incentivized to beat the Saints. And I think it'll be incentivized to let Hertz, you know, kind of run the shoulder on a Saturday, run the shoulder on a Sunday, excuse me, make sure it looks good. So I think all together, they're fine.

you have to walk through the briar patch here a little bit. Just make sure you handle this correctly. This organization, very familiar with MVP quarterback late season injuries. So they're going to be cautious and figure it out as best they can moving forward. My guess, and this is just a guess, is the next time we see Jalen Hertz is in the playoffs. I just think they're going to be conservative. I think they're going to look at it and say, we're going to get that one seed without jail. Now, it'll get really interesting if after week 17, they don't have it locked up yet.

and you have the Giants and you're like, all right, we gotta stop messing around. Then he plays. Yeah, I think they play him in that context if he's healthy. Yeah, then he plays. But like you said, the Saints have the ninth pick now. You want to beat them. There are so many what-ifs that can happen. But we will see, listen, it certainly throws a wrinkle into the NFC playoff picture for sure.

And I think you mentioned it. The Eagles have been fortunate to dodge really bad injuries. And so now you're just sort of on pins and needles going into the final three games like AJ Brown, Devante Smith, there are these guys that you want to keep healthy and not add to it so that you're healthy for the playoffs. There are two very interesting season-long arcs that are going to be put to the task that I think is going to be really fun over the next few weeks, which is, A, like, Jamie Hertz MVP. The case for detracting from Jaylen Hertz's MVP candidacy is that his supporting cast is so incredible. Well, we might now see what that supporting cast looks like with the second quarterback, Garda Minchu, who we've seen start and seen been good and then been bad and, like, you know, he's made plays and whatever. So, like, this is, it's not like, you know, Brock Purdy's going out there,

and we don't know Jack about this guy. Like, we know Minchu, if it's a good supporting cast, can at least, like, be respectable. So we're going to see some of that. And then number two is start looking at that head coach and carousel coming down the mountain in a few weeks. Shane Stiking, Eagles office coordinator has had his name thrown around in it. Buddy, you want to secure a job.

You go from the way Hertz plays to the way Minchue plays. There are two very different play styles. We saw this a little bit last year. Minchu had to play against the Jets, very different play styles, and make the offense hum, beat the Cowboys with the backup. in Dallas. You want to get a head coaching job. Everybody's watching on Christmas Eve, baby. Get it done. And you know, lock that puppy up.

So two, two things that have got talked about a lot this year that now, like, you know, we have a little bit of a proving ground for them. Eagles Cowboys, still a lot of reasons to watch that game. And Minchew, a free agent at the end of the season. So he's got play. He thinks he should be starting anyway. So plenty to get to listen. Ben and I do the Ringers-Filly special pod. We're going to talk more about Hertz and everything going on with the Eagles tomorrow after we hear from head coach Nick Siriani and see what's going on down there at the

facility. So be sure to check that out. For now, that's what we think about Hertz. Let's move on to Ben's first point of the day. Ben, what do you got? Yeah, so I, that Sunday night football game, Washington Giants, kind of a not a win and you're in, not a losing your go home, but pretty close in terms of the NFC playoff picture. And yeah, Washington got hosed a little bit. That game late, with the referee, which is a separate thing unto itself. The Giants now in a spot to probably make the playoffs, Washington now in a spot where it's going to be difficult. But I want to talk about this Washington team.

In the three seasons of which Ron Rivera has been their head coach, 2020, they start one in five, they finish seven and nine. So that's what, six and four down the home stretch, win the division, right? That's the year that Heineke ends up to the plate, taking over late and then playing in the wild card round against Tampa Bay. 2021. They start two and six. And then they get to six and six in the middle of the season before faltering down the stretch. They go seven and ten. This year they start one and four. They have been six, two and one in their last seven games there. Now seven, six and one in the season. They continue to have these limp starts and then these midseason surges. And there's frustration with Ron Rivera in Washington. And I think his job security and the job security of Scott Turner's office coordinator and Jack Del Rio, his defense coordinator, I think a lot of that's going to be interrogated and looked at this year.

And I'm curious to see what the result is. But my take is this. I think Washington's well-coached. I think they figure it out. I think the mid-season improvements are a sign that they figure out what's going wrong and handle it better than a lot of teams would. Now, should they do a better job of figuring stuff out in August? Yes, absolutely.

But when you see consistent mid-season improvement like this, man, there are a lot of teams in the NFL that stay static. There are a lot of teams of the NFL that don't get better midseason like this. I think that's impressive coaching. I'm willing to be talked off of that. It's hard to figure out, but that's the side I think I land on. The side that I certainly do not land on is the side of Washington's management of the quarterback position. To what degree Ron Rivera has more so been the architect of this as opposed to ownership,

as opposed to the front office, what have you. But they go into the 2021 season with Taylor Heineke and, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Allen, they go into the 2022-2 season, having acquired Carson Wentz with Tapeyneke as the backup. And then you have this game, you know, Heinecke, every time he gets in, he makes the team a little bit better.

He makes the offense a little bit more functional, right? Like when he gets in for Kyle Allen, the scrambling helps or the decisiveness help. He gets in for Carson Wentz, and he's got actual accuracy to the intermediate level of the field, and he can make a guy miss in the pocket. Like, he helps. But Heineke is a good benchmark for like Ken Hang at the NFL level.

I think he's a perfectly cromulent backup. He's like a minchew, right? but then you have those two late drives. They're down by five and then they're down by eight. And they get inside Giants Red Zone on both drives. And you have a Taylor Heineke sack into a fumble. And then you have the turnover on downs. Two fumbles in this game for Taylor Heineke.

Greg Rosenthal shares that he has the highest turnover-worthy play percentage of all quarterbacks this year tied with Zach Wilson. And Ron Rivera insinuates to the media this week, they might make a change of quarterback if Heineke struggles starting against San Francisco. So I think, Washington is well coached. And I think Ron Rivera and Scott Turner and Jack Del Rio

I think it would be defensible to keep them. Washington is the team this offseason. That if anybody's going to get ludicrously aggressive at quarterback, we talk about the Jets. We talk about like Atlanta, right? If a team's going to get crazy

at like free agent quarterback, I think this is the team to do it. Trade quarterback, I think this is the team to do it. Like we talk a lot about like Derek Carr to the Jets, like Aaron Rogers to the Jets, Jimmy Grappalo to the Jets. I think Washington's going to be right in there. He's going to be aggressive in there.

Look at the building blocks, man. Is receiving court sick? John Dotson, 4105 at a touchdown. Terry McClure and Curtis Samuel, right? Backfield, Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson. They got these two out of backfield. The offensive line's really freaking weird. It's like all free agents that are all over 30.

You got to figure that out. I'm not going to brush over that. That's kind of bad. It'd be really great for them. Chief Rulier was healthy. If Sam Cosley can figure it out. I'm not brushing by offensive line. But I do think with the desperation in the coaching staff to prove itself,

and the fact that they've had this quarterback carousals prevented them from being stable, prevented them from having a true run for four months, I would not be surprised if we see the biggest, you know, jam on the quarterback for agent market, whoever that ends up being, being very aggressively pursued and grabbed by Washington this offseason. I think they're a completely mediocre coaching staff. I don't see how anyone could be impressed by Ron Rivera is there because they needed a respectable spokesman for the owner who is a disgrace to the league. And so would say a disgrace to humanity in general. And they needed someone to kind of sit there and speak for the team

and talk about, you know, talk about, they have a good relationship with the media, get out in front of the camera and do all those things. I mean, as a head coach, what is Ron, listen, Ron Rivera seems like a great guy. He's had success in the past. I don't know what he's where he's giving you an edge in the year 2022. as an NFL head coach. I mean, they're 21, 25, and one in three seasons with Ron Rivera as a head coach. The last time Ron Rivera had a winning season as an NFL head coach was 2017, Benjamin. That's one, two, three, four.

This is his fifth season. He's under that. So I'm not saying he's terrible. Like, I don't think he's one of the worst coach. If you want to find me the most mediocre, he might be the most mediocre coach. I feel mean because everybody likes Ron Rivera. I've never met the guy. He seems like a great guy.

I think he may be the most mediocre coach. in the NFL. I don't see anywhere where he's really giving you an edge. Now, they've had two of the last three seasons. The defense has been good. So if you want to, I don't know if that's what you were going to say. I think they've done some good stuff. Certainly on defense, now they've invested a lot of resources in their defensive line. So, you know, it shouldn't be terrible. But, you know, give him credit there. The leadership seems to be fine. You know, the culture within the players seems to be fine there with Ron Navarre. So those things are feathers in his hat. Now, the quarterback situation, like they took their big swing sort of last year and were probably the most aggressive team, irrationally aggressive team, I would say, in their trade for Carson Wentz. Now, could they do that pretty much every year? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I don't know that there's a guy out there where I say he would want to go to Washington. That's always an issue. He would want to go to Washington. Washington will give up what it takes to get the guy and you plug him in there and there's some kind of contending team. So I don't know. I just feel like they're a franchise stuck in mediocrity.

It's all because their ownership is the number one reason why that franchise stinks, why it stunk for a long time or been admired in mediocrity for a long time. So if they want to stick with the same coaching staff and say, hey, run it back. Let's go seven and nine. Maybe we get some good injury luck or some good one score game luck next year. And we go nine and eight with whoever's the quarterback. Then I'm fine with that. But I just don't find them very interesting at all from a football perspective.

So, right. 21, 25, and 1, it is for Ron Rivera over three years there. Yeah. The quarterbacks he has started. This year, eight starts of Taylor Hankeke, six starts of Carson Wentz. Last year, one start of Ryan Fitzpatrick, 15 starts of Taylor Hankekeke,

one star of Gary Gilbert. Okay, but isn't he making the calls at quarterback? I mean, I feel like he has the keys there to do what he wants at, at quarterback. I feel like he has a lot of power there. So I can't separate the two and say like, oh, some, you know, GM is sticking him with bad quarterback. I mean, he made the decision to trade for Carson Wentz when we all knew that was a bad decision at the time and he did it anyway.

And now Carson Wentz is on the bench. Just disparaging Martin Mayhew. How dare you? Martin Mayhew famously one of the most powerful general managers in the league. But, okay, right. So Heineke, Gilbert, Fitzpatrick, and then in 2020, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen, he absolutely is a part of making those decisions. And this is why, like, you know, harped on this with the John Robinson thing. The coach general manager balance is so important, right?

why was Kyle Allen brought in? Because Ron Rivera knew who he was. Coaches being in charge of personnel is never good. It's never, never, never, never, never, never, never good. But 21, 25, and 1 with that group of quarterbacks is not bad. It really isn't. It's fine. Again, I'm not telling you Ron Rivera's the greatest.

And this is a tricky thing with the massive explosion of popularity of head coaches being play callers. They just say, what does Ron Rivera bring? And that's a warranted question. The answer is, same thing Mike Tomlin brings, a culture, vision. Like, you know, like, you know, like a top down

understanding of how the business works, right? Like the assignment of roles and like keeping the staff organized. And like that, that's such a hard thing to get your thumb on the pulse of, right? Which is like, I think Tomlin's a better head coach than Rivera. I think we've seen that. I think John Harba was a better coach than Rivera. I think we've seen that. It's just what's you like,

for a lot of the head coaches who aren't play callers in this modern era, it's like, okay, well, what are you bringing? Because I got head coaches right now who they bring their offense or their defense every single year. and it's sick, and I know they can never leave because they're my head coach. They can only leave if I fire them. So there's a tricky aspect to that.

I just watched that Washington team. I watched them over the last two weeks, both of their Giants games, they were critical games to them, and they tied one and they lost one, and they had opportunities to win it, and, like, the fact that Rivera can't get them over the hump and, like, you know, secure a playoff spot for them in year three,

that's absolutely concerning. But I watched this team, especially with these pass catchers, and the way this defensive line plays, and they had no Chase Young, and, like, Benjamin St. Juice is down, and like Jamie Davis is improving. I think I like, guys you could step in

and really make this defense solid. I look at the roster and I go, man, like you get a Derek car on here. They're like, they're 11 and 6. Like this quarterback room, I really think is that, has been that poor over time

that if you get, like if you get the Ron Rivera of quarterbacks in here, 11 and 6. If you get the, if you get the Ron Rivera of quarterbacks, mediocre, mediocrity into Washington, the roster is good.

The roster is ready. And so I think, I think, Washington would be well-suited and understandable, justified, I should say, if they get aggressive at quarterback this upcoming year. It's also justified. Like I said, there's a case to you may that they should just blow it up and reset, where it's like, okay, like, yeah, we need to get a new quarterback, but we're not going to trust this coaching staff with it. We're going to trust the next coach step with it. I get that. They're a tricky team to figure out. Receivers are good.

I don't know that I like the roster as much as you do. Duron Payne, I think will be a free agent. Chase Young, you don't know what you're getting out of him. I don't get out of Montez Sweat, baby. He hasn't played. Montes Sweat has been. Casey To Hill, Eagles great, playing well. This is easily the most commanders talk we've done on extra point taking all season long.

I made a distinct effort in prep. I had time today to try and find teams we haven't talked about. And I, dude, I tried for ages to find something interesting to say about the Arizona Cardinals. And I was like, I just hate the team. I can't stand these guys. I was like, all right, Washington, we're going for it. This episode of the Ringer NFL

show is brought to you by State Farm. All right, football fans, the good neighbors over at State Farm wanted me to let you know that you really don't have to get that personal to get the personal price plan. Seriously, there's no need to tell anyone that you still sleep in an old school pair of your team's pajamas or that you have a breakfast ritual on game days that you insist results in a win. I feel like my friends and family. It's always sitting in the same spot during a game or what you wear, what jersey do you have on, what sweatshirt do you have on? If it's not working in the first half, you change in the second. But anyway, that's right. The State Farm Personal Price Plan simply helps you create an affordable

price just for you. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Call or go to StateFarm.com today to create your State Farm Personal Price Plan. Prices vary by state. Options selected by customer, availability and eligibility may vary. All right, my second take. Now, we want to circle back to the Monday night game and at least talk about one of these teams. So Packers win the game. they're six and eight. I think they have a 12% chance to make the playoffs. They would have to jump the Lions, the Seahawks, and either those commanders or the Giants to get into the postseason.

I don't think that's going to happen. But here's my take, Ben. And I think it was early on. It might have been week five, week six, where my take was like Aaron Rogers is going to be playing elsewhere in 2023. I've changed my tune. I think the Packers might just run it back in 2023.

I think they might look at this situation. and say, hey, look at what Christian Watson did in the second half of this. He said, they might look at it and say, you know what? The NFC is not loaded. We made this huge financial commitment to Aaron Rogers where, yes, we can get out of it, but it's tricky to get out of it. It was our first year after the Devante Adams trade. Let's retool a little bit.

Let's get Roger's thumb healthy, assuming he still wants to be there. And let's just add a little bit to the offensive line, to the wide receivers. now, you know, if you talk about like Romeo Dubs, Christian Watson and another player or and a playmaking tight end. Thought it was Dobbs. We keep it doing this all year, man. What's this guy's name? How do you spell it?

D-O-U-B-S. I think it's Dubs. We definitely had this conversation on like my second podcast at the ringer, which was in August. So yes, it's Christmas time. We should have it figured out by now, but listen. Watching him in Nevada was great because I hate the thing that scouts do. Like, this kid can really play like this kid out of Nevada. Like, say his name.

You know his name. I did it constantly for. Romeo D. I was like, yeah, they've ever seen right on Nevada. He can really, I've refused. I heard so many different pronunciations. I couldn't do it. He's, yeah, he's got a good first name.

I could have just called him Romeo. But let me ask you this, Ben, where do you think the Packers ranked in offensive DVOA going into this game? I know it's decently high. And the reason why I know it's decently high is because I've been looking at like offensive performance in the running game over the last like five, six weeks. And the Packers are like lapping the league. They're, their, rushing that's been incredible recently.

Yeah, they're 12th in offensive DVOA in a season where it feels like everything has sucked for them. And so I look at that and I say their run game should still be pretty good. They still got those backs coming back. They got to figure out some stuff on the offensive line, maybe make an aggressive move for a wide receiver or tight end and maybe run it back. Like they don't, they have, you know, Elkine Jenkins and you got to figure out the defense.

That might be a coordinator change or something else. But I think I've changed my tune on this, on what the Packers are. going to do this offseason. I think there might be a little drama around, oh, is Aaron Rogers going to be available or not? I think when we sit here on August, whatever, 25th of 2023, and we're doing division previews of the NFC North, I think we're going to be talking about Aaron Rogers in a Packers uniform. And I think they might be, you know, considered a team that can definitely get back into the mix and certainly get back into the playoffs next year. What do you think? Have you changed your tune or am I nuts? I don't know what your original tune was. So maybe you

didn't don't have to change it. My tune on the Packers is always like what's Aaron Rogers is his vibe, right? Like it's like, I think the Packers should keep Rogers in the sense that like you have, he's got a ton of money in his deal and he's very good. He's been very good. He's a back to back MVP. Like he doesn't have the best season from him,

but we've had stretches where he's been really bad and then he's been really good again. And like armed talent wise, he's depreciating, but at discrete levels, right? It's not like he's like falling off a cliff or anything. So I'd be fine with that. I'd also be fine with moving on from him if you don't want the headache. You know what I'm saying?

Like if you're looking at your team and going right, we're not ready. Like we got to develop these young guys. Like this is just too much. And like you want to make the Jordan Love switch. I think that's defensible as well. With what I've seen over the past few weeks, I think you feel better about the offense overall. I don't think like, you know,

Christian Watson had a ton of touchdowns. But snap to snap, like they drive for this guy top 35 and he's a home run threat right now, which is nice, but I don't think that you're like, we got them. Romeo Doves have been a good return on a fourth round pick. No two ways about that. I like the way that young man plays, but you're not sitting there going, we got them. The receiver core is set in Alan Lazzar,

Randall Cobbant for agency. They just cut Sammy Watkins. Your offense has gotten better. I think that's a feather than a captain Matt LaFleur, but I'm not sure the Achilles heel that people anticipated coming into this season has gone away. And so the only way that like,

you're at your 12th and offensive DVOA. The only way you walk into next season being like, yeah, our offense is your championship caliber again is if you solve the same problem you've always had. They still just have the huge, huge, huge, huge gap at receiver. They've done an incredible job working around it short term, long term, it's still too glaring. That and then the defense, which just like, I think it was Joe Buck who had the line. It might have been Akeman. I can't remember, but they were discussing the defense and Matt LaFlemore made a comment to Buck and Akeman before Monday Night Football. We want to get more aggressive on defense. And I think it was Buck

who said, yeah, it's about the third year Matt's told us that. It's like, okay, Joseph, but it, you know, Mike Patton, they were a soft three, four, and they switched it out for Joe Barry, and what have they become? Not just like a soft three, four. A soft three four with seven first round picks on it.

Rogers back to MVP level. They go get Devonte Adams back from the Raiders. David Boktiari decided to start playing football again. Anything can happen. I won't take the team seriously until they change what they do defensively, because at this point, it doesn't have teeth. Yeah, I think those are the two things. One is, and I don't like to call for, hey, replace this guy or fire this guy, but that hasn't

worked out. And if you can get a, I mean, think if they had, you know, your boy, Lou Anarumo with this defense. We'd be talking about the team totally differently. And listen, I could name, you know, think about Demico Ryan's. We could name like eight to ten coordinators around the league where you would easily say, man, this defense would be a lot better. There's more there to get from the group than they're getting right now.

So that's one. And then two, I agree with the own wide receiver. I think if they could make a move to add somebody a more surefire guy, and then those, you know, the Watson's and the dubs and whoever else they have become two, three, and four, now all of a sudden you might have a really interesting group. Now, they've been so patient in the past. They haven't made aggressive moves. So we'll see if they do that or if they don't do that. But I just feel like they're not sort of as far away or as much of a disaster as maybe I thought week five or week six because of some of the developments we've seen later in the season. All right, Benjamin, what do you have for your second point? Taken or not taken? I don't even know. All right. So I accidentally test ballooned this on Twitter.

I didn't even meet to. I didn't think it was going to become a thing. It became a thing. And so now, like, I don't know, there's probably some people listening to us who have heard this take. I'm mostly interested to get your perspective on it because I feel like you'll have good thoughts here. This isn't about you keeping your thermostat at 60 degrees, right?

That's not, you're talking about football. That's a very regular thing that many people do that should not be questioned. the 22 NFL draft was considered not a good class. The first quarterback taken was taken at 20, Kenny Pickett. But even then, the non-quarterback players, Trayvon Walker,

Aidan Hutchinson, two corners, top five. It wasn't the same caliber of dudes we were used to see in top five. There was no Nick Bose in this class. Miles Garrett wasn't coming around the corner, right? This was just a weaker class overall and certainly a quarterback.

You go into that in April thinking, all right, some of these teams in the top five, top 10 are going to make these picks and they're just going to, it's going to be a total waste. It's going to be a big concern. And then here we are in week 15, week 15. And I think the top 15s generally got to be pretty happy with what they've got. Now, the exact terminology I used was not unhappy.

And then that led to some problems. What I'm going to say is, I don't think we have signs of a clear, terrible, bust, press the big red button, what's going on, panic mode. We have none of that right now. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean anything, right? Like, if you did this review in 2019, you would have said the lions think that Jeff Akuta is going to bust. I'm here to tell you, I watched Akuta this season.

Guy didn't bust. Guys been awesome recently. Andrew Thomas, right? That giant's film rookie season. Holy Moses. Guy can't play. And then this season has been much improved. but whenever I watch a rookie in year one,

what I always want to see is exactly what I said, can you hang, can you play? I don't need you to be perfect. Got there you make your mistakes, you know, you're going to have your issues, you're going to have your issues, you're going to be able to function at this level

such as I can continue to give your reps, I can figure out what you need to work on, I can get you in positions where you can succeed, right, and I can tweak your role such that we can start to build you into an NFL player. You're one, I want to know, can you hang? If you give me, you know, the sauce gardener is going to be first team all,

or sick, but I just generally want to see if you can hang. Let's walk through the players. Jaguars, Trayvon Walker, first overall. Is he as good as they came on Timbado right now? Is he as good as other first overall edges? No. But I think when you watch him play, he's transitioning from being a 285-pound defensive tackle

to being a two-point stance outside linebacker. He's at good reps. Aidan Hutchinson, a great example of a guy who early was concerning. They figured out what he does well. They changed his role, no longer the big end, now you're the rush end. He's been much better. Derek Stingley has been banged up.

And, you know, Houston took him at three. And then the guy at four, Soss Gardner's been really freaking good. But when you watch Stingley play, that guy can hang. He had that Stingley film against Cortland Sutton early in the season, man. I'll hang my hat on that for a long time. That was just like third, fourth career game. He's just isolated man coverage on the backside against a wide receiver one. Awesome film.

Soss Gardner, nothing needs to be set at four. Kavon Tibido had the strip sack has really come on late after being injured early at five to the Giants. Ike McQuano. Six over all of the Panthers, first tackle off the board. Man, that early season film was terrifying. Couldn't get his pants on. I just could not get his head screwed on straight.

Recently, you ain't heard a thing about Ikemaquano crickets. And when you don't hear news about offensive linemen, means they're playing well. Evan Neil had seven with the Giants is where we, okay, does that be great? Yeah, and that's an interesting one because he felt like one of the safer guys.

I mean, I hate using the word safe, but you know, you felt like, all right, he's started a lot of games. He played for a big program. He should be able to at least, you know, give you competent play. It's early. You know, you just mentioned the Andrew Thomas example, but just of the guys you mentioned so far, yeah,

he has not been great recently, but, you know, I'm not going to say he's going to stink or anything like that. I liked both Icky and Cross a lot better than Neil coming out. And one of the reasons I did was Neil was just really big, really heavy. He was really heavy-footed, right? He just feet weren't that fast. And that's hurt him at the NFL level. I wouldn't be surprised if he bought.

Recoms a little bit and like body recoms I love how you use I'm gonna start using that in 2023 I'm gonna body recomb yeah exactly January 1st baby we start the body recomb but uh the thing was cross like with with Neil is I you know he he's listed so heavy but you remember those pictures of him in the draft process you're like how is this dude carrying he looked great I thought it was a tight end yeah it might be tough for him to but I just he's just a little heavy and I so I Neil's always when I was tricky on but just round out you know rest of the top Drake London eight to the Falcons Charles Cross tackle and nine of the Seahawks. Garrett Wilson, 10 to the Jets,

Crizalaave, 11 to the Saints. Jamesville Williams, 12 to the Lions, injury you don't really know. Jordan Davis, 13 to the Eagles. Kyle Hamilton, 14 of the Ravens, another started a little bit shaky. He's been great down the stretch. Kenyon and Green. John Dodson, Zion Johnson's been good. Traylon Bergson has been good. Traylon Bergson saw it when he's been healthy.

Trevor Penning. And then he gets Kenny Pickett. For a class that was bad, this is not a good class. We don't have the guys. The NFL drafted it really well, and they're getting guys in a good position. So the take is that, I think the top, the top five, top 10 of the 2020 NFL draft to be really happy with what they've done. It looks like we've got a solid class.

The like one B of the take is I wouldn't be surprised if this happens again in the upcoming class because we're continuing to get guys who had the COVID year. We're continuing to get guys who came out and they're just a one year older and they had one more year of eligibility and they just played for a little bit more. And I think for the next couple of seasons as we see the COVID eligibility and the extra year of spending in college, the extra year maturing affect guys just for this one. window, I want to be surprised if we get a run of drafts of dudes who transition to the NFL and keep their head above water, stay afloat, a lot better than in previous drafts where we see

some guys come in top five, top 10 picks and just immediately flame out. That extra year is just a little bit of padding, a little bit of security. I'll be curious to see if this sensation continues drafts to come. Yeah, you're right. I mean, I hadn't looked at this group, honestly, probably since April or May, just looking at the list year of 2022, the top 15 or 20. So this is the first time I'm doing it live here as we chat. And yeah, I don't think there's a team in there who's probably like, oh my gosh, what, you know, what did we do? Our guy stinks or anything like that. Just as you were reading them out, I mean, if you're a Jets fan, you're probably down in the dumps right now, given how last weekend went. But man, sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson, those are like

the two from this group, like talk about passing just the eye test and you're like, wow, this guy. I mean, what Sauce Gardner's doing? Like, cornerbacks don't come in and do what he's doing as rookies. That does not happen. It doesn't matter if you're the first pick, the fourth pick, whatever pick, a steal in the later rounds to be this good so quickly. And now to know that you've had, you have him, I mean, he's 22 years old to know that you're going to have him long term and hopefully he stays healthy. You have to feel great about that. And man, yeah, Garrett Wilson, like imagine him in one of these offenses where you're getting consistent quarterback play, what kind of numbers he's been putting up. When I tweeted this,

people were like, you're going to tell me the Jags don't wish they had Garrett Wilson right now. No, no, we're not doing a redraft. We're not doing it. If I knew now, you know, I knew them what I knew now. That's not what we're talking about. Nobody drafts a receiver at one. I'm talking about for what, like, the teams expect it when they grab the players, who here feels like their pants around their ankles, who here feels like they totally got God,

they just flubbed it. I don't really think anybody does. That's very rare at this stage right now. And for teams like the Jets who are a potential playoff team, the Seahawks who like, the Seahawks of cratered a little bit. Offices come back down to earth, whatever. But if you told a Seahawks fan at the draft, like, hey, you're going to be seven and seven in week 15. You're going to have a chance to make the wild card round. Charles Claus and Abe Lukas are both starting. And yeah, they got their lunch money taken by Nick Bosa there a little bit, but they still look great.

Therick Woolen looks awesome. Kenneth Walker was all like that's great news, man. This, this 2022 class feels big. It's a good group. Good one. See, you thought, I don't generally think outside the box on these. You thought outside the box, take it back to the draft. And yeah, job. Ringer NFL drafts podcast has kicked off and has been underway. Subscribe with your fantasy football feed. I'm in that zone, baby. The mind is shifted. There you go. It was in your head. It's fun to revisit stuff this time of the season. So that was a good one. All right. My third one, Benjamin, are you ready for this? Oh, no. This is a preamble. Bill Belichick no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt. It's like, I'm tired of here about it.

You had a vendetta against these pages of this podcast this year, man. No, it was a month ago. I said they were the worst coach team in the AFC East, and that was correct. I do find it very funny that a month ago, you're like, they're the worst coach team in the league. And then a month ago, and now they stop deserving the benefit of the doubt. No, no, no. I said they were the worst coach team in the AFC East was the take before. And now, listen, this was like the, I don't know what the word is, the apex, whatever of their season,

was that Jacoby Myers play. And then all the takes came out after the Jacoby Myers play against. the Raiders. And listen, you can easily make the case. That's just one player doing something dumb. I honestly felt kind of bad for him afterwards. It's a mental gaffe in a big spot. He was accountable afterwards. He took responsibility. That's fine. But we need to zoom out and look at the bigger context here. For the last 20 years or so, whenever a team makes any kind of boneheaded play, what do we hear? Oh, you know what? Bill Belichick's teams would never do that. I mean, they never extend the football over the goal line.

I know. In practice? Oh, no, you can't do that on a Bill Belichick team. His teams practice situational football, Ben. No other coach has ever thought to practice situational football. It was one team and it was one organization. The Patriots, they would never make all these mistakes that these other teams are making. He makes it a priority.

Well, guess what? What team makes as many boneheaded mistakes week after week as any other team in the NFL? It's Bill Belichick's 2002 New England Patriots. This isn't a one-time thing. This is all season long. I mean, that Vikings game, I remember, what was that? Three weeks ago, that was a disaster. It seems like every other week we're having some conversation about what is going on with the Patriots.

And then you zoom out even more. This team is seven and seven. Okay, his off-season decisions to do this Matt Patricia, Joe Judge plan, and everyone got tired of hearing about it and you make fun of it. But then I was always going, listen, he'll just go coach the offense if he needs to. He's not going to let it crater. Well, guess what? That was a terrible plan. Okay, your second year quarterback has regressed, your 25th in offensive DVOA.

I wasn't the biggest Mac Jones guy. Mac Jones was a promising rookie. I mean, he was like 13th in EPA per pass play with not like a great supporting cast around him. He was perfectly competent. Yeah, Austin Gale for us had, he tweeted us out today. It was very interesting. This great cumulative EPA on dropbacks for quarterbacks for the 2021 quarterback class. And just as the game number goes up, it's Mac Jones going up on the chart.

and everybody else going down. Remember that first year just Lawrence, bad, Fields, bad, Zach Wilson bad, Davis-Mill is bad. And then you get to like game number 17 when McDaniels left and second season started. And Fields up, Lawrence up, and Max's just cratering. Yeah. Everybody else who had a young quarterback figured something out for their guy.

And you bought him the other way. Yeah, I don't, I'm, listen, I have no reason to be like a Mac Jones apologist. I didn't have some, like, big draft take that Mac Jones is great. But I watched Mac Jones last year. I'm like, wow, he's better than I thought he was going to be. He's accurate. He processes. They might have something here. And that's gone completely downhill in year two.

And then you look at the team building. I mean, remember that offseason? A couple of years ago where Bill Belichick had some cap space to use, Jonu Smith paid him $12.5 million a year. He's being paid at that time, like a top five tight end. Now like a top 10 tight end. He's averaging 18 yards per game over the last two seasons. They still have Nelson Aguilar.

He has 362 receiving yards. he's making $11 million per year. The team building has been bad. The coaching staff decisions have been abominable. The player development, specifically Mack Jones, has been bad. The in-game management has been terrible. The situational football has been terrible. So the time for using the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick, and listen, I'm not saying

he's not a great coach. He's obviously had an unbelievable career. I'm talking about this point in time. I don't want to hear them as an example for anything. I don't want to hear about the Patriot way. I don't want to hear about how it's all Mac Jones. I mean, people tweeting out Mac Jones's stats. Like, yeah, what changed around Mac Jones?

Like, Mac Jones didn't become a different guy from year one to year two. And so this team is 24 and 23 since Tom Brady left. They're most likely looking at three years with one playoff appearance and no playoff wins. And so no longer benefit of the doubt. You don't have to have that seat of doubt in your head when the Patriots make a move. And you say, that doesn't make much sense to me. But I'll give them the benefit of the doubt because it's Bill Belichick. That time is over.

My first thought is, I kind of feel a little bit bad for Bill because it's not like Bill over the course of the Patriots dynasty. It was hopping on the mic and being like, I am so good at this. Right. He kind of like, you know, it was implied by his success. But when you say like, you know, we have to stop. Like, I don't want to hear about the Patriot way anymore. That's, that was us.

That was like, you know, they were winning a lot of Super Bowls and like, you know, we as a football consuming media in public. We're trying to like dissect and figure out what was going down. And so I feel a little bit bad for him in that regard. It's not like Bill was out here being like, Brady's going to leave and I'm going to kill it. Bill is just like, I'm going to keep doing what I do. And, you know, that's obviously not as good. I still think that he's just bored out of his mind.

Like he's just or like he. I don't bored. Oh, I like, give me this take. Well, it's, it's, it's, the metaphor I've long used is this and I'll explain it to you. So you're going to make a joke about how you're old and I'm young. So break it down. All right. When you play a video game, right, in like, you know, this modern era of like streaming video games and like there's a ton of content, like there's downloadable content and everything.

People have now figured out new ways to play video games. One way is to, it's called it 100% in the game. You do every single side quest. You go to a little like early stage and you like choose to go a different round. You do all the background stuff. You 100% of every choice that can be making you make. You run it through as many times as possible 100%. Another way to do it is like a challenge run, right?

where it's like, hey, like, Tetris, but I can only use the left arrow. I can't use the right arrow, right? You just find a way to, like, add additional rules to the game to make it more difficult for yourself, right? Tom Brady's 100% in the game right now, the game of football. He went to the AFC, or he went to the NFC, excuse me, to go win some championships with, like, Brouserians, you know what I'm saying? He's 100% of the game.

He's just screwing around. Like, let's go get all the career pass markers. I want them all 100%. Bill Belichick's doing challenge runs. It's like, what if I tied my hand behind my back with Matt Patricia? what if I gave out only bad free agent contracts, right? Like, I just, I don't understand what's the incentive for him. I don't, like, he's made so many consecutive poor decisions.

Like, even drafting Mac was just like, like, everybody was every like, you know, punt in all at draft analysis like, oh, he's the next Tom Brady. Did you watch him play at all? He never played like Tom. Now, he was a play action deep shot merchant in Alabama, right? Like, taking Mac and then, like, putting him in the Brady offense with McDaniels. And then, like, all the free agent contracts. And now the way he's running his staff, like, I don't understand what interests him.

It just seems like he's just doing things very. That's why I say he's bored. Is he just like poking the NFL with a stick to see what comes out of it? Like, what can I get away with? If I think of seven and seven right now, it's like kind of nuts when you think about it. So it's just I don't, I don't know what he's doing. I don't understand what he's up there. Like what, like just go write a book.

Stop doing this. It doesn't seem to, you don't seem to enjoy it anymore. And you barely seem to enjoy it in the first foot. Well, I'm sure he liked the challenge of trying to win without Brady. I don't think he's trying to sabotage himself, even though that's what it feels like. Like you said, I'm sure he's spread very thin. He's making personnel decisions. He's trying to coach the offense.

He's trying to coach the defense, which I'll give them credit. They've absolutely overachieved on the defensive side of the ball. With that personnel, he can still put together game plans against somebody like Zach Wilson and Cookham. But what are we talking about here? This has been a mediocre team now for three years. years and it's going in the wrong direction. And, you know, he might not like, you're right.

He might not, he might just like kind of like the process and try to figure it out. I don't know that Robert Kraft would enjoy the process of what's going on here over the last three years, especially given that Tom Brady won a Super Bowl without him. So I don't know what's going to happen there in the offseason. I mean, is there any forcing his hand to make an offensive coaching staff change? Is it just, this is Bill Belichick? He'll figure it out. what they're going to do. I mean, Mac Jones is yelling at the sideline every single game now.

I love how angry Mac Jones is. I find it hilarious. You've earned nothing, but also I totally get it. I'm completely with you. I love his vibe right now. The two most consistent things this year for me, at least as a football viewer. One is Mac Jones yelling at Matt Petitioner, someone on the sidelines, and the other is Matt Collins making a catch, finding a camera, and yelling, I'm him over and over again. Those two things. I swear every Sunday I've been on this chair on my right watching football. Both of those things have happened

every single week. Mac Conn, that's underrated. My people out there who are listening, you know you've seen Matt Collins do that every single week this season. All right, so that's my third take. Benjamin, what do you have for your third take? And I think it's going to lead into my extra point taken if I'm correct here. Mac has been

a total joy. Yeah, Matt Collins, not Mac Jones. I'm loving this Mac Collins season. I'm totally into it. I find it hilarious. Okay. The AFC playoff This is the third take.

It's just going to be the best playoffs we've had it in forever, man. This is going to be. This is going to. And like, did I go back and like check the 2016 NFC playoffs to make sure I really remembered it? No. Okay.

Firstly, there's an extra games. They add to the extra teams. Like that and of itself is just like you're just lifting the, lifting the floor there. But bills are making it. it, Chiefs are making it, Bengals are making it, Ravens are making it, right? When I go and I click through 538 playoff Brickers, I do like legitimately 19 times a day. This is the greatest thing that ever existed.

I struggle to get those teams out of the playoffs. And right now, Bill's, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens are all above 98%. Bills and Chiefs have secured it. Chargers are at 83%. I think they're probably making it. Dolphins, it's been a little bit weird. I have a couple losses. They're at 71% chance.

I think they're making it. Already we got some great teams in the bill. I'm loving what we're seeing. That's six. Now it's the AFC South winner, right? You either get these upstart Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence, scored 40 points on the Cowboys, offensive strength improved.

Doug Peterson and coach who's been there before. Or you get the Titans who like, yeah, the Titans are like lost four straight in our total headache. But if there's any team that knows how to go punch or punch with an AFC contender, it's the freaking Titans, man. This is what they do.

If they get in, they're going to, yeah, they're at least going to cover. I don't know if they're going to win a game. they're at least going to cover in the first round. They're going to get in as the four seed. They're going to get like the five seed Ravens. And it's just going to be 1913 with eight minutes left.

And there's going to be like four challenges and three turnovers. It's just the dumbest game you've ever seen. Regardless, Bill's Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Chargers Dolphins, before we even get to the seventh team. That group in and of itself, man, is just six of the best offenses we have in the league. and then one trustworthy defense in Cincinnati, maybe one and a half with the Ravens.

I know I'm kind of on that island. A lot of people aren't there with me. Yeah. So Buffalo, I, I, this, the Trudevius White that's playing is not the Trudevus White of old. And Vaughn Miller's out. And so, you know, the bills have got Jordan Poir. They've got Matt Milano, great player.

But this Bill's defense, man, it's a lot. It's like, it's like the Bengals. It's like real well coached. good communication, but they don't really have a star. It's just the Bengals have like already proven they can do that and do it really well for a long time. Buffalo, I don't know. Buffalo worries me a little bit defensively. But like, okay, even then.

All right. It's like, bills have a generally trustworthy defense, but they had to play a one possession game of the Chiefs. They had to play a one possession game of the Titans. They had to play a one possession game of the Dolphins just last week in their home field with the snow, right? Like, it's not like they're like, you know, the Bengals have games or they win on defense. I don't know if Buffalo has it against a FC contenders.

Same thing is true with the Ravens, right? Then you're 60. okay, get the Titans in there, get the Jaguars in there. We said both those teams are interesting. The jets are still floating around in the picture, right? If one of the dolphins fault or the Chargers fault, so you get this pass rush in there, you kind of throw everything for a loop.

I cannot tell you who in this group, I think, is definitely winning it, man. Like, all seven. I can talk myself into the Dolphins beating the Chiefs so easily. I can talk myself into the Chargers beating the bills so easily. Bengals, I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC. I think Bengals won in the Super Bowl, man. The Bengals team I've seen over the last month,

holy smokes, is the best they've ever looked. They're just so, they're so balanced. And then, like, the Chiefs and the Bills, all we poked holes in them, oh, like, you know, Chiefs are going to overtime with the Texans. Yeah, but they have the superhero quarterbacks. I know what the superheroes do.

I've seen them do it every single freaking year. Like, you look at this Bill's offense on paper. But outside of Stefan Diggs, they got nothing. The wide receiver death has not been good. The running game is not reliable. It doesn't matter. they got, I usually call Josh Allen a Velociraptor. I got a wonderful email from a listener telling me Veloceraptors were actually two feet tall.

And the dinosaur I'm thinking of is the Dionycus or something like that. So they got the Dionycus back there. Fricking, I would pick whatever, you know, dinosaur you like. But they have the superheroes. The Bengals have that. The Ravens have their own. They have their superpower. They have Lamar Jackson.

The Dolvins have this passing offense. The Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence, the upstart, the charges of Justin Herbert. This AFC playoffs is going to be amazing. I can't wait. And I believe strongly that we're going to get a team out of the AFC that surprises us. If you gave me Bill's chiefs or the field right now, I take the field. I think it's going to get bananas. See, I put the Bengals in that group with the Bills and the Chiefs.

I think it will be one of those three teams. I would be surprised. Well, you give me Bill's Chiefs and Bengals, I'd probably not take the field anymore. We get Bengals in the field for me. I don't see, I don't even see like a strong case for the other teams, other than anything can happen type. scenario, but it is going to be fun. Yeah, those teams could absolutely win a game, which is a guy.

I agree with you. The AFC is awesome right now. They say good lead in to my extra point taken, which I'm going to give you, Ben, the most fun playoff brackets within reason. Okay, within reason. So, like, if there's a team that has, like, an 8% chance that I want to sneak in there, I'm not allowed to do that. But I want to see if you agree with me.

I'm going to go AFC first and then NFC, yes, you're raising your hand. Define most fun. Is this? This is what you want to see. If Roger Goodell called you after this podcast and said, listen, don't tell anyone, but I can actually fix these games. You know, maybe what you saw on Sunday night was the start of that. Maybe what you saw on that Vikings game, maybe had something to do with it.

Whatever. He says, I can make this happen for you. You've been churning out such great content. Keelan Cole touchdown while he's standing out of balance. Yeah, I get the phone in. He says, I'm just such a big fan of yours. I'm going to let you determine who the playoff participants are, but you have to tell me now because I don't want to make it too obvious.

so I can kind of make it happen in the next three weeks. So, AFC, here's what it is now. Bills are the one seat. Chiefs would host the dolphins, which, oh, that gave. Jeez, Holston, the Dolphins, baby, 40 to 37 or something. Who knows? Sometimes those games are low scoring, but my gosh, on paper, that would be amazing. Bengals would host the Chargers.

I mean, the takes, Burrow, Herbert would be just too much to handle. And then you mentioned it. Titans would host the Ravens, Benjamin. Titans that beat the Ravens before. Ravens have been the Titans before, but that would be the other matchup. And even if it were Jaguars Ravens, it's a regular season rematch of a great game of a one-point game.

That's right. So the AFC actually don't have a lot of fixing to do. Okay, so that's what it is now. Here's the only thing I want to do. I want to get this Jags team in over the Titans. Yeah, buddy. Mike Rable, you've had a nice run. Listen, I gave you your props last week.

I respect you. I think you'll be fine. But this Jags team, you watched that game against the Cowan, Here's what it was to me. It was a combination of Doug Peterson was in his bag in that game, specifically the first half where they're running screens, misdirection, man beaters, all kinds of things. And then you combine that with Trevor Lawrence just being like, I got to cut it loose and make plays. And he's doing that. You combine those two things.

They put up over 500 yards of offense against the Cowboys. That's a team. I would love to see. I mean, look at who they're doing it with Ben. I mean, we talk about, I mentioned the Patriots. Like the Jaguars are doing it with Zade. Look at what Zay Jones is having a three touchdown game. They went from Evan Ingram career game to Zay Jones career game.

It's a different guy every week. I mean, that's a playoff picture. Yeah, that's coaching and quarterback. If you want to talk about like signs of a good offense, signs of like a well-coached, well-designed, opposite to quarterback that gets it, this NFL pendulum right now is swinging towards target density, right? The Eagles throw to AJ Brown and Devon Smith. The bills throw to Stefan Diggs. You know, the, the dolphins were Tyree Kill and Jaylon Wall.

And then you have this Jags team where like Doug is as good as it gets at being like, if this, then that, if this covers and that, like, this have the field, that half of the field. We like, we go through a dichotomous key of decision making and eventually we end up in the right matchup. And Lawrence, it's very different than the offense he ran in Clemson. Took him a year, West Coast terminology, get a used to NFL speed. Lawrence is just out here going, all right, where's your pressure point? Show me, right?

The entire first half, they're hunting Doron Blan, that rookie corner in the slide. Every third down, Christian Kirkman, first 26, Ron Blan. Lance playing great. So they go, all right, move on. Kelvin Joseph, second year corner on the outside. That guy on Zay Jones. And they connect on a couple. They go, yeah, we found them.

Target a lot. And they just hammer. And that's so cool. Like, that's mid-2000s West Coast that you don't see that nowadays. And they just, this Jags team just goes, we'll figure out where it is. Just give us a couple drives. We'll figure out where you don't like it. And then we're just going to hit it.

We're just going to hit it. We're just going to hit it. Yeah. So I want them in. They've got a great shot. I mean, they just need to. to really keep pace with the Titans over the next two weeks and then beat the Titans in week 18 and they're in.

I mean, the Jags control their own destiny if you want to put it that way. If they went out, they are the AFC South champs. I think the betting markets, Van Duel has them at around a 44% chance. So just slide the Jaguars in there into that four seed. Jaguars will host the Ravens, Bengals will host the Chargers, chiefs host the Dolphins. I mean, unbelievable, wildcard weekend, matchups, the bills.

keep them in the one seat because I like the snow falling in the divisional round and the NFC championship round. We saved the potential for Bill's chiefs until the NFC championship or Bill's Bengals potentially. You got the Lamar factor when he comes back. So that's the only change I want to make. Am I missing anyone? Would you rather see the Jets, the Patriots get in? Do you want to see the Titans stay in?

Or do you like those? The team left out that would be fun to get in as the Jets because the Jets could win a playoff game. with just uproarious defense. The Jets could come in as a seven seed, get the Chiefs as a two seed, and if they were to beat them, which is unlikely,

but if they were to do it, they would do it with a dominant pass rush for four quarters. And I love those games. I love those games where it's, it's the fourth quarter. They've got seven sacks as a team. Like Solomon Thomas picks up a sack,

like a critical, like third and nine, and just the defensive line throwing a party on the field. Guys are running in from the silent. Like those games were just jailbreak defense. defensive pass rush. I love those games. And we talked about sauce, like how much of a sensation he's been.

So the Jets are funny if they make it. It's just this combination of offenses if you get Jaguars over Titans is just right for some sick games. So you would rather see the Jets or the Chargers? I'd rather see the Chargers just because of Herbert, I think, brings a lot more.

Yeah, I agree. I will say also like, you know, I'm not going to get caught by the Chargers. I'm not letting myself do it. Don't do it. Defense has been better the last couple weeks. I'm not getting God.

When you have a... By the way, I want to give Ryan Tandahill a shout out. This is off topic, but I watch that guy, and I mean, talk about somebody who should be complaining a lot who has, like, he has no chance back there on a bunch of these snaps. And all he does is just like he's got the ankle injury. He comes back. He toughs it out. You see him, they have that drive in the fourth quarter.

They just make something happen. He's high-fiving everyone. I just have a lot of respect for him. I mean, you watch it. You couldn't get through a series on Sunday. without him getting sacked, the offensive line having a penalty, and then you look at who he's throwing to. I mean, it literally might be the worst situation for any quarterback in the NFL right now, and he just comes back and comes back and comes back, and then eventually you get a touchdown

in the fourth quarter. So, listen, Tannahill's been in that sort of middle tier of quarterback, but I've grown like a real appreciation for him, not only this season, but in past seasons, but especially this season, when things should be going so poorly, and he just kind of sticks in there, and everybody seems to like him and galvanize around him. So I just wanted to to give Tannahill a shout out now that I'm knocking him out of the playoffs for the Jaguars in my dream scenario. One of the takes that I had scrapped that I was like workshopping for this is just kind of, you know, we're getting into draft season again, right? And it's the pseudo-science of quarterback psychology. We got to what's the guy's vibes, leadership, right? Will Levis out of Kentucky is a

guy that I've comped to Ryan Tannehill in part because of the toughness, in part because he just hangs in there and takes the hits, right? And really, I was going to focus the take on Zach Wilson in terms of like kind of how he's handled the playing poorly and then the benching and clearly the locker room's frustrated with him and still remains frustrated with him or whatever tan hill's an example of like you want to overachieve as an offense make sure the team likes quarterback do the team likes the quarterback when the team sees the quarterback out there with an ankle injury taking hit after him the team see the quarterback to live and die with the rest of the team week and week out matters man it a hundred percent does tan hill's the poster child for that right first round pick

bust it out, bad health, trade it for a fourth rounder on the bench, gets the starting job, and just sits in there and takes lick after lick after lick. It accumulates. It really does. Tannah Hill on the Jats, maybe a point next week. Let's save that one, let it marin it. But just when you said those two things together, I was like, oh, might be interesting. Those contracts up in 2023? NFC.

Up in 2024, after 2023. NFC is a lot different, Benjamin. It's not nearly as juicy. Right now, Eagles would be the one seed. You would have the commanders at the Vikings, the Giants at the 49ers. and the Cowboys at the Bucks in the first round. Now, having said that, the Lions and the Seahawks both have better odds to make it than the commanders. I want to see the Lions and the Seahawks in my ideal scenario get in there over the Cowboys,

oh, sorry, over the Giants and Commanders. So pick two out of those four. Am I right, am I wrong? Commanders, Giants, Lions, Seahawks. If you had to pick two, that would make for the most fun postseason, which two. do you want in there? I got, again, I've got Lions and Seahawks. Lions are a no-brainer.

No brainer. Lions are like third and DVOA over the last five weeks, buddy. Get this team in the playoffs. If they went out 96% chance to make the playoffs, I swear to goodness, if they went out on the 4% chance hit, I'll be devastated. Make it an 18th playoffs.

They're going to make it. Get this team in the playoffs. Yeah. I'm fine with the Seahawks. I'd probably pick the Giants. Really? I love Brian Davel, man. firstly, I rate at all referees at every given time.

That speaks to me. It speaks to my spirit. I appreciate him. Secondly, this is the most throwing against the wall and see what it sticks offense. I have ever seen every single time I see Isaiah Hodgins and then Richie James lined up at wide receiver. I go, there's no way it's Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James. And it's still Isaiah Hodges and Richie James.

Nobody's coming to save them. It's just this. And they're winning games. I think they're a hilariously interesting team. If they got into the playoffs, right, they'd be what, seven seed playing the two seed? At the Vikings. 49ers or Vikings, yeah, yeah.

Or the 49ers could be. The fake punts they'd be pulling, man. The double reverses. Think about the chaos game. You'd get Vikings to Giants with the way those two teams play and tell me you don't want to watch that football game. I think the two coaches who will kind of go that route would be Campbell and Dave.

Now, Campbell might not need to because his team is better and they might be able to line up and win. But if they have to go to like, you know, San Francisco or something and their big underdogs, I think he would, you know, certainly. Wait, Giants, Giants play the Vikings this week. We're getting that game. I totally forgot. They played week 16.

Oh, it's going to be such a fun game. The dumbest thing. You think you've seen the dumbest thing. The dumbest thing that happens in the entire NFL season will happen in that game. Take it to the bank. All right. So Ben is on the fence with Giants or Seahawks. I'll go Seahawks.

So I want Lions at 4th. 49ers and I want Seahawks at Vikings. I don't want to repeat the divisional round where the Seahawks play the Niners and the Lions play the Vikings. So that's how I want to see it in the NFC and then the last thing to go over, Benjamin.

Roger Goodell calls you. Hey, Benny. Who do we want to win this NFC South? Huh? You want Tom Brady to get in there with the Bucks? You want, what do you think about Sam Darnold? Hosting by the way, hosting. a playoff game, or maybe Desmond Ritter.

You know, yeah, he's only throwing a couple passes in the NFL. Would you like to see them? Or who knows, maybe Andy Dalton and New Orleans Saints, and Dennis Allen says you had your last on extra point taken about me a few weeks ago. Well, look at me now. Now I'm hosting a playoff game. Who do you want? Who do you?

This, I couldn't answer this question. I need your guidance. I cannot pick this about who I want to win the NFC South. I wish there was a fun team in there. Can we just move the Lions? over to the NFC South and make them the NFC South champs. See, this is why I asked you the definition of most fun, because you're like most fun means like starting in January,

starting of the playoffs, what's the most interesting? I want this NFC South to be hilarious for the next three weeks. I want as many teams to lose in this division as possible, and then there's still a winner. If I can get a 7 and 10 division winner, I would like to see it, please. That's what I'm looking forward to this division.

Don't care who. Just give me absolute garbage. that's the objective. If I'm picking a team, the Falcons are still the most, like, interesting team to me just because, like, they just run, like, the wishbone in 2022. It's very pathetic. I don't want to see the Bucks at all.

The Bucks irritate me. I watch them out, I'm frustrated. It should be much better than they are. And even when they are better than they are, it's in glimpses. First half against the Bengals, oh, the Bucks are back. No, they're not. They're just, you know, shoot themselves in the same foot they've been shooting themselves in. Panthers is great for the memes, right?

I've been bothering Bill about this. all year. Bill, every, every pod, Bill tries talking to the Panthers. I'm absolutely not, I refuse. They're going to lose their lines and it's going to put a nail in that coffin. Saints, no. We can't, we can't let Mickey Loomis get a playoff game. He's going to start thinking things. He has no business

thinking about the veracity of this team. That's a dangerous road to put that man down. Yeah. Box is, I think, the outcome. But, like, in terms of my enjoyment, Falcons would be really funny. Yeah, I might go Panthers. You're right. You're right. You're right.

You're right. Bill has been on that all year long. He'll be proven right. That would be a tough path to go down. So we're the one of the other teams. Now, if you're a Cowboys hater and you want to think, well, that team's going to host the Cowboys. And if Mike McCarthy loses to like Sam Darnold or Andy Dalton, I mean, or Desmond Ritter, that certainly would be an interesting outcome. All right, those are the perfect playoff pairings. Can't wait. We're going into week 16, three more weeks. Only two more Monday night football games we've got. And then we'll be bringing you, I guess, guess playoff editions of extra point taking that.

I'll do it for this episode. Thanks to everybody for listening. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. Stay tuned for the power rancor. Stay tuned for the island. And I will be back with Lindsay Jones on the Scramble on Thursday. And then Benny Souls will be previewing week 16, week 16 with Danny and Stephen

Ruiz on Friday. All right, thanks everyone for listening. We will talk to you next Monday.