The Ringer NFL Show - Draft Reactions and Way-Too-Early Predictions With Mike Lombardi and Kevin Clark (Ep. 105)

Episode Date: May 1, 2017

The Ringer's Robert Mays and Mike Lombardi huddle up to discuss good value picks in the third and fourth rounds (03:00), the San Francisco 49ers' good fortune (05:00), and John Ross (12:00). Then Kevin Clark joins the show to discuss the most improved teams (21:00), and the gang wraps up with their "Way-Too-Early Predictions" (36:30). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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from sports and concerts to comedy and theater. Best of all, our listeners get $20 off your first Seekkeek purchase to sound the Seek app and enter promo code Ringer NFL today. That's promo code R-I-N-G-R-N-FL for $20 off your first Seekkeek purchase. To the Ringer NFL show. My name is Robert Mays. I'm a writer at The Ringer. Have a fun kind of post-draft show for you today. We're going to be Welcome by Kevin Clark a little bit later to talk about the teams that help themselves the most during this process, some way too early predictions for the 2017 NFL season. But before we do that, we're going to dig into a little bit more of the nitty gritty from the last few rounds of the draft with Michael Lombardi. Mike, how you doing? I'm good, Robert. How are you?

I'm great. I am good. You know what? I had such a nice weekend that I almost forgot that my entire world crumbled around me on Thursday night. So that's how good it actually was. Well, at least don't, now you've got to go get your Mitch Tribusky jersey out after you bought your Mike Lennon jersey, so everything'll be good. I feel so bad for the people that bought the Mike Lennon jersey. Almost as bad as I feel for Mike Lennon, who has to wear a Bears jersey now.

Yeah, or how about John Fox? I guess he didn't really know everything. Oh, my God. All the details that have leaked out are just disastrous. Peter King and his MLQ Beat's day, which is pretty much a must read every year after the draft, just because of the access he tends to get at this time of year, was with, with the 49ers and they figured it was Solomon Thomas. They had no idea.

Based on everything that John Lynch and Bragg Maratha were saying, I believe that's how you pronounce his name. I'm not exactly sure. Just in that moment, it was, it seems like the bears were bidding against themselves. So for the most part, everything that we've learned about this in the latter stages of it, haven't made me feel good about what happened originally.

But I don't want to talk about that anymore because I'm just going to start getting depressed. Let's talk about things that actually went well. for teams on draft weekend. And first thing I wanted to ask you, we chatted obviously on Friday night as the third round was going, but we haven't talked since the third and fourth. The third round ended and the fourth round happened. In those two rounds, were there picks that you thought were particularly good value and who

were they? You know, like, I think that that round is always fascinating because you can get guys who potential could start. Like the Eagles picked Matt Collins or was Super Carolina, who's probably one of the best special teams players you're ever going to see in the draft. You know, I'm not in love with Toysmith whatsoever. I think Toy Smith was a bad signing for the Eagles. I think a guy like Mac Collins can do some things eventually down the road.

So you like that. I think Perrine, you know, picking him, I thought he was a really outstanding value in that round, you know, where they got hit. The running back from Oklahoma. The running back from Oklahoma. Yeah. I thought the Redskins really were having a good draft. I think that a lot of the players they picked, I like. Maybe that's why graph grades are so kind of miskewed because if you like the players they pick,

you think they have a good. It's self-servant. Yeah, exactly. Ultimately happens with draft grades. It just really becomes your preference. But I thought the Redskins did well. And, you know, even the Rams, I wasn't crazy about the Rams draft. And then they picked the defensive linemen from eastern Washington.

I thought I had a chance to be a decent rusher. So I think there's some players in that round that, you know, when you pick there and things are going good for you, you know, you get a chance to get a potential starter or at least a guy for the 18 team. That's the most important thing. The 18 team really matters. Yeah, and that's what you want. You want guys that can contribute way that you can kind of mold into those roles.

When it comes to Matt Collins. What I mean, though, Robert, is I mean, like, you draft them in 17 and you hope for the 18th draft. Oh, sure. You know, they're going to come in and really make a difference for you. Sure, absolutely. Yeah, you have a year where they kind of can be background players and hopefully step into the foreground in their second season.

That makes total sense. Now, I mean, Washington can't really seem to go wrong in this draft picking guys that played defense for Alabama. That's probably a good choice. There are so many dudes on that team that were productive. And the fact that Jonathan Allen fell as far as he did, we didn't really talk about that on Thursday, but there were some concerns. He wasn't as twitchy at the combine as people had hoped.

There were some injury issues that teams were worried about. But at 17, he's a player that was so incredibly productive in college that you have to feel good about that. Yeah, I think more the medical than the workout. I think the workout, you know, it was concerning, but the medical, I think the shoulders were a concern. And, you know, look, Ruben Foster dropped all the way down. That 49ers should count their lucky stars that they didn't pick Ruben Foster at the third round.

I mean, the third pick overall, and they ended up getting the 31 because Ruben Foster may require for the season even begins. Now, people are saying he's fine, everything's going to be good. That's not what I'm told by a lot of teams in the league. That's why he slipped. People think it's more the character. I'm tending to believe it was more the injuries and that shoulder, whether it's the torn labor or the rotator cuff. So the 49ers are really fortunate that they would have turned that card in at three.

They would have probably been holding their breath to think he's going to stay healthy for the season. Is that always how it goes? Every single year there are these value picks where we react in this way. It's like, oh, man, can you imagine, can you believe this team got so-and-so here? Even with Dallas last year, they tried to trade up for Pxton Lynch. If they do that, there is no DAC press guy. You need a little bit of luck. And sometimes, oh, go ahead.

One step even more. They try to trade up in the fourth round to get Connor Cook. Yeah, exactly. Like you forget that. Yeah. Sometimes you need a little bit of luck and to be saved from yourself. So in this case, you know, San Francisco comes out of this draft looking like geniuses. In reality, they're probably sitting there saying, well, of course we'll take three

picks to move down to one spot. and then they get the guy they want a 31 because other teams didn't want him. So I don't know. In the immediate aftermath, I wrote today just kind of what I could glean from certain teams' plans from this year's draft. That's how I usually like to think about the draft. Not where these picks are good and bad necessarily because there's a reason guys fall. There's a reason guys go where they are.

Like you said, if you enjoyed a guy pre-draft, you're going to like where he went if he slipped a little bit. But in my mind, the draft is valuable in saying, what do teams want? want to be based on what they did this weekend. And that's particularly informative when it comes to new GMs, blank slate rosters like San Francisco and the Browns have, or teams that are going in drastically different directions. We talked about Carolina last week. I feel like what the Ravens did with their past defense was very indicative of where they

think they are, saying, we know our run defense is good. Let's be great in these other areas. So in that vein, did any team's plan or approach surprise or interest? you? I think the Ravens was Tim Williams was the guy that everybody thought was the great talent. There's nobody going to speak to the talent. There's some issues off the field, but they could manage him in that sense. And I think

getting him, and I think he's the perfect compliment for Brandon Williams, the big defensive tackle they spent all that money for. Tim Williams loves to run the corner. He's very good at running the edge. And I think if he plays effectively for Baltimore, it's going to be because the defensive tackle inside is going to power rush the guard and force the quarterback to have to step backwards, so right into where Tim Williams likes to rush.

So I think he'll be the perfect compliment for Baltimore's rush. I think it'll help them. I think he gives them another more athleticism on the field because as the game changes so much, that you're going to have to have guys that can run on the field that track down quarterbacks. And I think that's really where, you know, that's where I think you see these picks

and, like, the Patriots taking rivers from Youngstown State. that's another example of a team that sees they've got to have to have more speed on the field all the time to track down some of these quarterbacks that move around. And I think that was the emphasis mostly in the draft, especially later, taking a flyer on guys that could run. I thought the Ravens draft was fascinating. And I think it plays into what their offseason has been in a way. If you look at all the moves they've made in the past two months, so Timmy Gerning and gets traded because they probably weren't going to pay him anyway, understandable.

So you draft Chris Wormley as a guy out of Michigan in the third round. who hopefully can be a long-term replacement for him. Bronson Confucius is somebody they picked in the third round last year that didn't play last season. He was hurt all year, so you hope that he can be a player in your front seven this season. Kamala Correa didn't play a ton last year. He's an inside linebacker that you hope can step in. So these 2016 picks that you hope are going to be a part of your plan, just like you said. They're your 2017 players, even though they went last season.

You add that to the idea that you signed Brett Brandon Carr to essentially a one-year deal for just a cornerback that can play in the NFL, which they were solely lacking last year when Jimmy Smith got hurt. And then you have Tony Jefferson to go with Eric Weddell. You've all that, and then you sign two pass rushers who are very different. You know, Tim Williams is just a good pass rusher. He knows how to do it. And Tyos Bowser is a monster athlete. So all of these different pieces that are moving around, I think that if they hit in the right way,

we're looking at a unit that can challenge anybody to be the best one in the league. Well, I do. And I think here's the problem with the Ravens. they had 30% of their playtime was removed from their team that hadn't been replaced. So this draft is going to have to provide 30% playtime for what they're missing. They were the number one team going into the draft that had not replaced playtime from their year prior. Because they don't sign many guys in free agency.

Pardon me? They don't really go heavy in free agency most of the time. When teams fill needs, I mean, that Jefferson signing is kind of out of character for them. Right. And some of those guys that you mentioned that were on IR last year that didn't play, they're going to have to contribute too. So the draft and the registered team from last year. So, and I think you could see the sense of Baltimore.

They know next year's a big year for them. They're going to have to make that giant step. I think the other team that did really well was Cincinnati. I know we all talk about the Nixon pick, but to get Carl Lawson in the fourth round and to get some of the players that they acquired, I wasn't in love with the John Ross pick. I understood it completely. People had John Ross as a medical, but I understood why they did it.

And I think it's always fascinating when you see Cincinnati, They keep adding more players to their offense that keep helping Andy Dalton. And the key thing they're going to have to do is protect Andy Dalton. They lose Whitworth and pre-agency. Are they going to be good enough in the offensive line? Because last year they weren't. Last year it was a huge problem. They lose Zeitler to the Browns.

They lose. So, you know, I think to me all these skill players, they're going to have to get better. But I liked what they did. I liked Willis in the third round. I liked Lawson. I like some of things they did. Even like Shaq Evans, they picked the lineback from Oklahoma. So this team's got a chance.

Baltimore, I like that. I think they did. You know, one thing we know about the draft, it's the teams that can develop players that are effectively going to be the best. I mean, like Sammy Coach, you've got to feel like the Steelers didn't develop him. They come back into the draft. They had a receiver in the draft. Sammy Coach now becomes available, you know, and see how they can develop players.

Yeah, what Cincinnati did is fascinating because I feel like if you're trying to piece together that John Ross pick. You picked Boyd last year. He's not a burner by any stretch. He's going to be an underneath guy. And then you have A.J. Green. In a way, it kind of feels like the construction of the Falcons receiving court last year, where you have your number one clear-cut premier guy in A.J. Green.

That's Julio Jones. And then you have a solid possession guy that can kind of move the chains for you. That's Boyd and Sanoo. And Ross gives you what Taylor or Gabriel provided, the Falcons last year, somebody that can take the top off and allow A.J. Green and Boyd to work underneath. The problem is the falcons. can sign Taylor Gabriel for $17 the week before the season and the Bengals

spent the number nine overall pick on John Ross. Right. And look, John Ross is, a lot of people had him as a mean on microfactor surgery on the knee. There was a medical concern on John Ross. Can he stay healthy? I think, look, we know this. The coverage is going to get rolled in AJ Greek. We understand that. So Ross is going to see a lot of single coverage. And if he can make the place down the field, especially in the red zone,

where he could help Andy Dalton, because that's really, when you look at the Bengals season last year, their inability to convert third downs in the red zone and our inability to make field goals is the reason they're picking in the top 10. Yeah, absolutely. And getting effort back full time will help with the red zone efficiencies you think. And you think about the Bengals, even when they were good offensively, they haven't had

that burner guy that can just take you down the field outside the numbers. Marvin Jones can do that occasionally, but Marvin Jones wasn't on the field for them very often. Marvin Jones has hurt a lot. And we didn't see that version of the Bengals offense that much. Right, exactly. But when Marvin Jones was healthy, and I think this is symbolic of the pick, that's why they drafted Ross. Because Marvin Jones made their offense much more effective. And I think that's what they're hoping to get out of Ross. Why do you think Lawson slipped? I mean, he was a guy that was productive at Auburn. People liked him coming into the draft to get him in the fourth round. Is there a reason that you can point to?

I think it's all medical. I mean, look, when I was doing Auburn three years ago, I was watching an Auburn tape. And there was some, I think it was the kid the 49ers drafted in the third round. from Auburn. I was doing him, and I'm like, my God, who is this 55? He's really a good player. You look, and he's a freshman. And they got him out of Florida, so you know it was a recruiting battle to get him. And then he hurts his knee, and then I was down there working out coats,

and I was asking how Lawson's knee was, and everybody said he was coming back. But I think it was really all about the injury. I don't think it had anything to do with anything other than that. I think his injury, lack of height made it concerning, and so therefore, you know, he slipped, but Cincinnati Bengals-type pick, they get them in a discounted rate, just like they got Willis at a discounted rate, the defensive line, and they have a success ratio of turning these guys into good players.

And I thought that we talked about this, me, Kevin and Danny, the week before the draft, that the Bengals needed a sudden element to their defense. They have guys that can play, but they don't have a lot of turn-your-head athleticism, just give you whiplash watching the guy play, and Willis can do that. That's how athletic he is. We thought it might come in the middle of their defense, but it coming at past rusher, it still gives them the type of feel

that they've been missing over the last couple years. No doubt. But the way they rush, though, I think they rush. They're a little bit like New England. They don't like the rush on edges and run up the field. They try to power the pocket and keep the quarterback in front of them, which is a good way to rush. But I agree.

I think what you're saying is so true. I think they needed more speed on the field, and I think they're going to get it. Another thing I thought was interesting that I want to chat about before we get out of here is two teams, not making big moves at quarterback, not the types of moves that the Texans or the chiefs or the Bears did, but clearly planning for the future. And that's both the Giants and the Steelers picking Davis Webb and Josh Dobbs, respectively.

Do you think either one of those guys have a chance with some time to eventually be the successor or these straight, we need a backup just in case shit goes bad picks? Yeah, I do. I think it's going to take some time, you know, for both players. I mean, one guy, you know, Mahomes beat out Davis Webb. He had to go to Cal. He's been in shotgun, which he'll be in shotgun all the time in the McAdoo offense. But I do think that that gives them some time to develop the players and come in and learn the offense.

And there's really no pressure. Josh Dodds have no pressure on playing right now. He can come in and learn and speed a backup and move on from there. Yeah, and I think that's the biggest thing is that if you, a third and a fourth round pick, the chance of finding a starter in that range anyway, it's just not very good. I mean, the odds are not with you. You don't want to throw those picks away. But if you know you need a future option of quarterback and you like that guy enough and

on your board, he fits that spot, I think it's a logical time for both of those teams to be trying to do this stuff. Right. And then when you look at the fact that most teams are paying over $2 million for a backup quarterback, if you get a backup quarterback, if you get a solid number two in the fourth round, you're not paying $2 million a year for a backup. save yourself a lot of cap room with that pick. So even though he may never become a starter for you,

he may never not be what you hope for. If he's a really good backup, you've got four years in an economic value that you can't really, you have a hard time replaced. And I think that makes it a successful pick. Is that why the Patriots pick a quarterback every two years? Well, because, you know,

they don't want to go out and spend $2 million for backup. That's what I mean. Resources somewhere else. Exactly. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Exactly. That makes a ton of sense. I'd never thought about that before.

But if you are just looking at it, for a guy who is a disaster, is like a breaking case of disaster option, why not spend one-a-fourth of the cost, maybe less? I mean, that makes total sense. Yeah, I mean, because look, here you are. I mean, you're going to be sitting there saying you got to, you know, the guy you put in the game can't win the game for you anyway. If you sign, whether it's Matt Flynn, and I don't mean there's disparage anybody's career, but most of those guys that are career backups, you know, they can't win the game free anyway. You might as train your own guy to see if he can help you.

And I think that's why New England does it. That's how I would do it if I was running to be. And it's not even about whether there's solid backup quarterback options. You think about a guy like Brian Hoyer, right? So Brian Hoyer is picked by the Patriots. He's in New England for those first three years. He's making 310,000, 400, 500. He goes to Arizona, does whatever.

But then for the most part, after that, you know, we're looking at 3 million, 5 million when he was in Cleveland. That's those numbers. a million, we signed him for a million dollars in Cleveland and he ended up starting for us. And the next year they cut them, try to replace them with it. And people haven't replaced them. I mean, look, Brian Hoyer is what he, Brock Osweiler wasn't better than Brian Hoyer. No. I mean, they replaced Brian Hoyer with Brock out.

That that showed out didn't work out. So do you know how badly I want Brian Hoyer to be the starting quarterback for the Bears right now? Do you know how badly I want that to be my life? So desperately bad. I mean, the problem is you could have, you could have signed them and then kept, you know, but look, we'll see how this all plays out. I think with Brian. case is doing is he's putting a lot of resources in the quarterback, which is a smart thing to do. Whether he's right or not, we'll find out.

My only problem is, especially after reading that Peter King thing, is just that it seems like they didn't need to, they were willing to do it for the two-thirds, and then they had to throw in the extra fourth. Like, you're a team with a lot of players that you need. You can't just throw away draft picks like their tic-tacks. At the end of the day, at the end of the day, at Tribusky's really great, like they think is you won't even remember the fourth. Of course.

I mean, that is 100% true. but the opportunity cost by handing a quarterback $18 million and him not even being a potential starting quarterback for you past this season is frustrating. Even if Glennon's great, even if they win nine games and Mike Glennon just this slinging around the yard and they can get a first round pick for him next year, it's still bad input no matter what the output. That's all I'm saying. So, all right, Mike, thank you very much.

Really appreciate it. And we'll be back soon. Of course. Talk to you later. You bet. Thanks, guys. Thanks. Hey, it's Bill Simmons.

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Subscribe to it wherever you listen to your podcast. And we're thinking about once a week, right? Yeah, let's do it. And we are welcome now by Mr. Kevin Clark. Kevin, how you doing? I'm hyperventilating over this list of sparky athletes the Packers drafted. Yeah, I know you're super into that. Someone just tweeted it at me.

A few teams, you know, really went that direction. I think the Browns drafted a lot of, I described it today as if they were looking for guys that just could be in the X-Men, not necessarily football players. The Chiefs. If you're the Browns or the 49ers, that's exactly what you should be doing. So it makes total sense. I had a lot of Chiefs fans tweeting at me some of these guys, the Villanova Kid, the Michigan wide receiver.

I mean, there's some real. I mean, I've written about many times how devoted to combine numbers the Chiefs are, but I didn't expect they'd take it this far. All right, we're going to dig into a little bit of that, but mostly in reference to the teams that. we think got the biggest bump this weekend. So we're going to have two different conversations here. The first is if some of these picks break right, you know, we do this all the time with the draft.

We see the teams that pick certain players, the positions at which they pick them and say, oh, it's over. They got it. They got the guys they need. Those guys need to become the best versions of themselves for that to be relevant. So for the purpose of this conversation, that's the universe in which we're going to be operating. If these picks hit, which teams get the biggest bump. And then from there, we're going to kind of piggyback on that.

to talk about a way too early attempt at figuring out who's going to be playing in the Super Bowl and going deep into the playoffs. So let's have that first conversation. If you're looking at certain drafts, certain positions that were filled, if it goes well, which team in your mind got the biggest bump from this weekend? For me, I think that there's a lot of ways you can go with this. But for me, I think we've always looked at what would the Colts look like if they had competent decision makers? Sure. Ryan Grigsen basically ran a thought experiment on how you can screw up a franchise quarterback. That's what he did in some of these drafts.

So when I look at the Colts draft, Malik Hooker's safety, great, great play. I mean, people were talking about him going fifth or six overall. Quincy Wilson, a really athletic cornerback from Florida. I mean, I talked to some recruiting gurus who basically said he's so athletic he could have played any position on the field. It's incredible that he basically stuck a corner. and learned the corner skills he did and the coverage skills he did because he is really athletic out there.

And then you have Terrell Basham out of Ohio at defensive end in the third round. That's three players who could be contributors right away. The Colts were eighth in points four last year, 22nd and points allowed, okay? They were 27th and passing yards allowed. All you need is a little incremental improvement, and they would run away with that division.

Oh, see, I totally disagree. that they've run away with that division. I don't think the Titans help themselves all that much. The Titans were really good already. The Titans are a pretty team. They're pretty good. The Titans are in a very good shape to be better this year than they were last year. I don't know about that.

Their quarterback was a second year quarterback last year. It'll be a third year quarterback this year. They go get a guy in the secondary that they needed in Logan Ryan. I definitely think the Titans are in a good spot to take a step forward this year. Man, there was a chance. There was a chance if they took a different guy than Corey Davis fifth overall, you know, Mike Lombardi and I were both scratching our heads. We were together during the draft.

I mean, the Corey Davis thing at five was real weird. I think you could have gotten value at receiver later in the draft. I think if they had taken a great defensive player there, I think we're having a very different conversation about the AFC South right now. I really like the Colts a lot, but I like the Titans down after this draft. Corey Davis doesn't excite you compared to the other players that went there, but they needed a wide receiver. They needed one. If he can be a number one receiver, then that makes sense.

Adori Jackson gives them a corner. Even Johnny Smith, the guy from Florida International, that's a vertical tight end. That dude moves. It just feels like they added enough pieces offensively, and if they can get something from Ryan, if Jackson can make a play, they added Ciparin in the back end, I think that they have a chance to be better than they were last year. And I mean, I immediately defaulted to the Titans, but of course there is the Texans at this point in that division. And that's where I'm going right now because I think that if we're looking at drafts that could go the right way and if they do, who's helped the most? I think it's Houston. Sure.

I mean, if Watson can come in and be a competent quarterback, which is no guarantee. But again, that's not the conversation we're having. If he can come in and be decent, which is all you need to do to be better than what they had last year, pieces on that offense. There absolutely are. I'm concerned about some of the offensive linemen. Those are great players either, but you have receiving options. Fuller's fast and Deodre Hopkins is good, man. You got a couple tight ends that can play a little bit. And if Watson come in and just kind of make it all come together and then you look at that defense, things start to get interesting. I know you lose, I know you lost Boyer, but Zach Cunningham is the type of player

they needed. Because where they got cooked last year is lack of athleticism and inside linebacker. So that's the biggest glaring need, in my opinion, on their defense. So they added the player that filled the biggest need they had on offense by far and the biggest league they had on defense to go along with the team that made the playoffs last year. I really think they become a scary proposition in the AFC if Watson pans out. Yeah, look, you know, Chase Serrano was in the office when they made that Sean Watson pick and he basically made the same point. He said, we made the playoffs with the worst quarterback of all time,

and now we have a competent quarterback. However, a rookie quarterback, let's not, I know this is a copycat league and that's the old cliche, but like, I know Dak Prescott was really good last year, but let's not assume now that every rookie quarterback is going to be able to get you to that many wins. I just don't, I think that there's going to be, there's a lot of growing pains, man, and like I just don't know. There's a reason that Bill O'Brien keeps saying that Tom Savage is a starter. Obviously, I don't believe that, but I do believe that there's going to be growing pains. and maybe for the first couple games he goes with Savage. It is really hard to be a quarterback in the NFL right now. The practice time is really, really limited.

I mean, you go from, it doesn't matter where you are in college anymore. You still run tons of spread elements. There's not enough pro elements in the college offense. I think that's a little bit overstated at this point because teams run so much shotgun because the NFL is running a little more spread elements. But I do think there's a lot of terminology, a lot of things you have to learn. And I don't know if you can necessarily do that by September. In order to win this division, you're going to have to win 12 games.

I just, I see Watson. I don't know if that's true. I think the Colts are going to be good, man. So you're saying that Deshaun Watson can't come in and play quarterback right away, but Malik Hooker is instantly going to be like the best safety in the NFL? What I said is you need incremental improvement from the defense. I think you're overstating how good the offense was last year. They were eighth in the NFL.

And points scored. They were not that good. That's what the offense is. points. Offense is about efficiency. It's not a scoring points. Efficiency. They were 12. They were 12th. A year after being 30th, I mean, obviously no luck. But I don't think they're necessarily this machine on offense where if they were

an average NFL defense, they suddenly become a super contender. That's not what I see. They're going to win 11 games this year. Because I think Andrew Luck is pretty good. I think the offense is efficient, no matter what you say. I think T. W. Hilton is a great player. It's fine. It's a decent offense. It's not a juggernaut. I think that if you get I we sort of disagree here on the Colts offense

I mean it's not the Packers it's not Aaron Rogers you know scoring a will if you're going to have a decent defense you need to have a score at will offense that that's what Super Bowl contenders are made of if you have a very good unit you need the other one to at least be competent and I don't know if we're quite there yet they were 29 to DVOA last year and 30 second against the run they didn't add any thumpers Jonathan Hankins is a good player I like the path I like what they've done

at least they have a plan and someone making the decisions that seems to have an understanding of what to do but I'm not necessarily penciling it in by any stretch look I mean the the teams that were above the teams that were best in the league

last year at yards were play obviously the Falcons are an outlier but the Redskins the Saints the Patriots were above them I mean I just think that you all if the Saints for instance devoted a ton of resources to defense and they actually hit on them, they would be Super Bowl contenders, okay?

They're my next team. Let's get to them. We'll circle back to the Coltsville later, but you go ahead and with your Saints point. So here's, okay, and I think this is a perfect segue, because I agree with you that the Saints are one of those teams that could desperately need,

they desperately need an influx on defense in order to help the fact that they have a very good offense. But there's a gap to me. The Saints were six last year. year in offensive TVA. They're every year they're in the top eight. And I like what they have from a talent standpoint and much more than I like what the Colts have.

The Saints offensive line is one of the best three or four in the league. The Colts is not. Drew Breeze at this stage is a better quarterback than Andrew Luck, even if you think it's particularly close. I like Ty White Hilton more than I like a lot of the players on the Saints offense, but Michael Thomas can play. And you have Mark Ingram, you have Albin Kamara as a speed element now. I don't know what Adrian Peterson is.

That doesn't matter to me. but I like the Saints offense considerably more than I like the Colts offense. And then you think about the defensive pieces that they added. You go get Marshawn Latimore with the 11th overall pick. And then you go get a safety in the next round. They're trying to add pieces and you have Ramcheck as a way to kind of cover for yourself when it comes to offensive line health. One of the reasons that I'm concerned are when we talk about teams having these great lines

and how they're going to be the foundation, offensive line get hurt a lot. But what Ramchick gives you is he, gives you at least some sort of contingency plan if one of your tackles goes down. So I think they covered themselves offensively and they gave themselves a higher ceiling defensively. And when combined with some of the players they added in free agency, I think that their defense hits, they're much more dangerous than Indianapolis. So a couple things on the breeze versus luck argument.

Obviously, in a vacuum, especially last year, when luck was so banged up and basically the last two years, he's been as injured as any quarterback who was playing. I mean, really, when you hear about his kidneys, when you hear about his shoulder, I mean, the fact that he was ever on the field in the last two years is a minor miracle. I know he missed some time, obviously, two years ago, and that was a disaster. But, I mean, the fact that he's been on the field, he injured his shoulder in September of last year. And so I think that he had surgery this offseason, I think he'll be a little healthier. Having said that, Drew Breeze is 38 years old.

And if you're going to short a quarterback, I would, at some point that has to end. It happened with Peyton Manning, where he was great. great, he was great until the moment he wasn't great. And I just think, and I know Peyton Manning had neck surgery and four neck surgeries, but I mean, things fall apart for players in their late 30s. This is not this is not golf, okay?

You know, Freddie couples, you know, in contention of the Masters of 59, that's not going to happen at some point. Drew Brees needs his Augusta. I don't know what that is. It'd be amazing. It's probably the Superdome, honestly, playing on that track inside. Jack Nicholas in 86, they'll just have one

more year. I still believe it far if you come back and start for somebody right now. I just think if you have to short a quarterback, it's a 38-year-old. That is fair. It's not about me shorting Andrew Luck. I think Andrew Luck is a very good quarterback and played very well last year. I'm not trying to take that away from him. I just think at this point, Breeze and the Saints offense is one of the safer bets in the league

to be right up there every single year. You're right that at some point it's going to fall off, but it wasn't last year, and I don't know if it's going to be this year. I think it's a safer bet that the Saints offense is a top five offense than the Colts. That's what I'm saying. I don't think the Colts will be what they were last year. I think they'll be in that 5 to 8 range. I'm just saying our hypothetical conversation is what happens if the defense, if these

picks hit. And they went defense with their first three. And I think their first two picks were really, really good. If they get into a good secondary situation, I think they're going to win the division. I think that division is pretty tough. That's all I'm saying. You said they'd walk to it. I completely disagree.

If their picks hit, if their picks hit, then yes. Now, if Deshawn Watson is Dak Prescott Part 2, then it's a different conversation. Then, you know, then you probably need one more win. You probably, you know, there's a chance that one of these teams, everything goes right, and there's a 12 and 14. There's a chance that Deshawn Watson is, you know, the best rookie quarterback we've seen in years and they go 13 and 3. That defense is that good. We're just having a hypothetical conversation on what happens if a team's pick, a team's pick's hit. And for me, I like what the Colts did.

The Watson thing is interesting to me in a few different ways. One, I want to see when he starts getting the reps because I was talking to some people around the Raiders recently about why Carr succeeded as early as he did. And I think that it's a similar way, similar thing to what Dak did. And all the coaches and GMs I spoke to for that kind of mid-round quarterback's fine, mid-round quarterback find story that I did last week, they said that being the guy matters early because you get the first-round first-team reps. And it goes beyond that. Everyone in the building sees you as the starting quarterback. You are the starting quarterback. And Tyron Smith and Des Bryant and all those guys looking at Dak Prescott on August 26th

and saying, you're our starting quarterback. It ended up mattering. That was a thing. So I hate to see the Texans dick around with Tom Savage until a week before the season and then say, all right, Deshaun Watson, you're the starting quarterback. I think that stuff is important. So if they do that, I think it will help. do, Prescott succeeded in large part because of the infrastructure that existed in Dallas.

Right. And that was one of the points I was going to, I mean, Lamar Miller is not Ezekiel Elliott. That offensive line in Houston is not the Dallas offensive line. That is 100% correct. But I also think that it's not a bad infrastructure to walk into. It's not as if he was the first overall pick and this team was terrible. Even though the offense struggled last year, to me it was in large part because the quarterback and because their offensive line worries me a bit.

I think with Kelly coming back, who they lost for the entire season last year, you can find a situation with him and Mance and Jeff Allen, who they signed last year, Dwayne Brown looked great near the end of the season. I know he's getting up there in age. I think their line can be better than it was last year, and the quarterback could definitely be better. You had that to some nice receiving options. They picked the Dante Foreman kid from Texas in the third round. I think that that is a more comfortable scenario than most big-time quarterbacks get when they come into the league.

So I feel like there are opportunities for it to be successful early if he gets the shot. That's all I'm saying. I totally agree with you. think the entire division is one hypothetical after another because I just think that there's so there are teams in that. I think all three of those teams could be anywhere from from seven game winners to 13 game winners truly. I mean, I think there are more variables in the AFC South than any other division.

I think all of those teams can be contenders in the right way. I think that's correct. Jacksonville is frisky or certain elements of the roster, but Blake Borders is still their quarterback, so it doesn't matter. All right. Hey, they picked up the 50-year option on Bortals. Yeah, I saw that. Breaking news, right?

So, all right, those are the teams we think can get the biggest bump, but let's get into the teams that we feel, even if it doesn't necessarily break the right way. If certain elements do, certain elements don't, we feel as of today, with rosters more or less set pending some weird free agency moves, who's there? Who are going to be the teams that are playing for as super as we get to the end? And I think that we're both in agreement on the team that is at the top of that list. The Jaguars? That's right.

We'll play Portals. We just talked about it. Yeah. Okay. So, you want me to go first? Yeah. Go ahead, buddy. So there's a couple of teams that I wanted to put in the final four, and I just couldn't do it.

I think the Panthers are going to be a lot better than they were last year. Can't do it. I don't even know if they're going to get the divisional round. I think there's just too many good teams. I've written about this a couple times. I mean, there's a handful of franchises that have just risen to the top and really aren't going to get toppled until their quarterback gets hurt, basically, because they've surrounded their quarterbacks. with enough talent, they manage a salary cap.

And even if they don't manage a salary cap, well, the salary cap is so huge now that even the worst teams can manage it. So my picks are a little chalky, but there's nothing I can do here. I think chalk is what you should be doing at this point. That's what we're doing. Yeah, I mean, I would like to go bold and be like the lions are going to make the Super Bowl. But there's just not, it's just not a hill I'm going to die on. And maybe as it gets closer and I visit these teams,

you know, in June or July, and start talking to more people around the league, that that's when these sort of proclamations get made. So in the NFC, a rematch of last year's playoff game, but in the divisional round, not the conference championship, I think the Packers and the Cowboys. I think I just don't see a team leapfrogging either of them. I just think their situations are too good. I mean, the things that both of them do and do well, those things are sustainable.

Offensive line is sustainable. Aaron Rogers being really good is sustainable. The run game is sustainable. And so the Packers drafted enough athletes, as we always joke about, to keep that going. I think that the Cowboys, obviously, with Taco Charlton, addressing their pass rush, that's only going to help. It can't hurt. And they were still pretty damn good even without maybe an elite pass rush last year.

So that's my NFC championship. And of that, if I had to guess, I'm just going to go Packers. The Packers are my team as well. I think that Atlanta is in there in a little bit, but I think that the loss of Kyle Shanahan matters. I don't, until I see what Steve Clark, Starkeesian is as an offensive coordinator, I'm not going to feel that great about it. So that's one thing to take into consideration.

I just like what Green Bay did. I think adding Kevin King is a guy that can come in a point. He was my pick. He was my ideal dream pick on last week's podcast for the listener. And they moved down to get him. Yeah. I mean, they got to move down to get them. They heard.

Josh Jones is a, you know, you add him in the secondary. You have some pieces there. I think that with Jamal Williams, the guy they pick in the fourth round, he's another running back. You can pick a running back in the first round. fourth round to just be part of a rotation. We'll see what happens with the offensive line. You know, they...

In Greenback? Yeah, you lose T.J. Lying. They're usually good. They've those position. That spot has been solid for a while. It hasn't always been during Rogers' tenure, which people forget. In the early days of Rogers, their line was actually pretty bad.

But that had a lot to do with Rogers not understanding how to use them in the right way quite yet. I feel like it's harder to be at that place now. I thought it was interesting. There was a report. In the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that Packers coaches were just beside themselves so that Thompson let T.J. Lang go.

I can understand that. T.J. Lang is a hell of an influence in that locker room. I mean, at some point, at some point, I know how they treat free agency. I know how they treat players with high price tags. But at some point, just keep T.J. Lang. Yep. I totally agree. I mean, unless you're worried about the hip and everything else,

that's probably, that's a play in their thought process, I still don't like it. But, all right, so let's go to Dallas. They would have been my other team. I'm just worried about whether they're going to be able to stay on offense. I feel like we're just penciling them in as this top four group again. You lose Leary, who is your better guard. I know that he was the backup coming into last season,

but he's better than Lyle Collins. He's a better player right now. And then Doug Free goes. Doug Free's not some superstar, but who knows what the hell Chas Green is? So you have two pieces there, and that goes beyond the fact that they're good offensive linemen, stayed relatively healthy last season.

You know, I know Tyrone Smith missed a couple games early, but when it mattered, that group was intact. And they got better when their left guard got hurt. So I feel like that's something to keep in a consider, to take into consideration. We've never seen Smith, Frederick, or Zach Martin go down for extended periods of time. If that happens, you suddenly become much worse

in the most important area of your franchise. So that's just something to keep in mind. And I think that Dak was really good last season. I don't know how, we're just going to be able to say he's going to be better this year. I don't necessarily think that. But wasn't that your argument with Mariotta? There's just

natural improvement from year to year? I think that the Titans added more players to give Mariotta a boost. I think there's not necessarily natural improvement from year to year, but I think the Titans supporting cast and the infrastructure and just kind of the bubble around him in that offense, they added

pieces to it. The Cowboys couldn't solely because of money reasons and because they needed to add so many resources. is to their defense. Hey, I kind of like, I know, obviously, in the fourth round, you can't just go around saying he's going to be a starter. I like that guy. I kind of like Ryan Switzer.

Yeah, he can play a little bit. But I, you know, I don't know how many snaps he's going to get. No. You can understand that Corey Davis is going to be on the field from Dave 1 as the number one receiver. I just think that Switzer, by November, once he gets worked into the offense, could be a nice little X factor in the playoffs. Sure, but, like, they had receivers. No, of course.

That's a fourth round pick. What, what, when you say you wish that they had a little more help, what would you have liked them? Obviously, they had to go defensive. with our first three picks because that's the biggest question mark. Okay. But if you were to have picked an offensive weapon, what would you have done for the Cowboys? I would like to see them have another tackle.

Yeah. I mean, it's just, I see a guy that's a blue-chip, pedigree guy to come in and play the right tackle. He didn't have no offense of Remind at all. No. I mean, I think they feel comfortable with the guys they have. And that's fine. They know much more about Chaz Green than any of us do, because what could we possibly know?

But that's what I'm saying is I think that line just isn't going to be the group it was last season. And if that's not the case, then I wonder what the offense as a whole looks like. I think it can still be great. I'm just not sure it's a guarantee the way that some people. So who's your second NFC championship? I honestly don't know. I have no idea.

What just happened? That's what I'm saying. We had the show built around this. Dallas is in there and Atlanta's in there. I can't make a pick yet. Those are the teams that I think are in the running. Those are the next two on my list. And I think Seattle isn't that far off.

Wow. You're trading back in this conversation. Yeah, that's exactly what I'm doing. I don't have one. I'm sorry. Just trading, you're not, you got on the clock and panicked and couldn't do anything. It's half, it's half Dallas, half Atlanta with Seattle hanging in the background. That's what I'll say.

Great. I'm sorry. Luke warm takes. All right. It's May 1. We're getting close to football season. Yeah, exactly. Right.

Yeah, I better have some definitive answers. On May 1st. All right. Let's do the AFC and let's get out of here. All right. So let's say that you're, we all know who's the second one in this conversation. I swear to go, we should not even spend any time on the Patriots. All I have to say is, and I tweeted this on Thursday night, or maybe Friday night, I think

it's Friday night. The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year. The Patriots are definitively better this year than they were last year when it comes to the talent on paper. Like, there's no question about that. They have better players. Like, it's absolutely ridiculous that you have a team that won the Super Bowl that Added Stefan Gilmore, a couple cheap guys on defense that other teams didn't like, but they

could probably get more out of. Dwayne Allen can play. I think Mike Gillisly can really play. So you had all these pieces that weren't very expensive to a team that won the Super Bowl. It's ridiculous. I have no idea how this continues to happen. Oh, yeah, Brennan Cooks is on this team, too, by the way. Yeah, Mark Daniels from the front.

Yeah, Mark Daniels tweeted out as a Patriots beatwriter, tweeted out essentially what the Patriots did with their picks because obviously they traded out. They only took four players. And so really they took their first round pick. They got Brandon Cooks. Second round pick, Connie Ely. Okay. Fourth round pick, Dwayne Allen.

Fifth round, Mike Gillisley. Fifth round, James O'Shaughnessy. Fifth round, Barcavius Mingo, who's obviously departed and gone with the Colts. Sixth round, Kyle Van Nuoy. That's what they did with their draft picks. They took four players. Belichick showed up. Belichick stopped being.

wearing Tommy Bahama at the Cape for an hour to come in and just probably pick, you know, future pro bowlers. Antonio Garcia has won. Derek Rivers, fastest available three cone at the time of any defensive lineman. So that was not. That's how he picks. That was an obvious pick. He put a no prep for the draft.

He walked in, he walked in with his boat shoes and said, can't get a three cone guy and then walked out. That was it. That was Belichick on draft weekend. He's going to win the next nine Super Bowls. Yeah, we're all screwed. Anybody that roots for a team should just stop rooting for that team, especially if it's the one that I root for. Not worth our time.

I think Connie Ealy might be pretty good at some point. I think Coney Ely was fine. He would have been Super Bowl MVP. That's a weird argument because the Pandas didn't come close to winning that game, but he had a damn good Super Bowl. Yes, he did. And I know that probably skews our opinion of him, but it seems like what Belichick is doing

is kind of splitting the difference between understanding how much time he has with Brady, but also not making panic moves related to it. You know, you're not winning now by sacrificing resources, but you're trading two years of a rookie contract for four years of a rookie contract.

And the way you're kind of closing that gap a little bit is that the guys you're trading for, we know what they are in the NFL for better or for worse. So I understand that strategy. I actually think it makes a lot of sense. I totally agree with you. All right. My second AFC team, Oakland Raiders.

Because... I can't... That's a good one. I can't disagree with you. The Oakland Raiders, I had been picking the Oakland Raiders to make a deep, deep playoff game since last summer. Obviously, when Derek Carr goes down on Christmas Eve, I think it was, that changed everything. They had no chance in the playoffs. I mean, the mood around that team dropped.

Derek Carr, I think intangibles are overrated, having said that Derek Carr is a leader unlike I've seen at such a young age. He was that team last year. Kalil Mack is a great guy, great player. He and Bruce Irvin have a really good handle on that defense. But from a team perspective, the leader is Derek Carr. So they had no chance in the playoffs once he went down. Breaking your leg, not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things. You'd much rather have a broken leg than some sort of nerve damage

or something that's going to take a little longer to heal. So I think he'll be back. And then the defense was a tire fire at times. but Carl Joseph will be healthy for the entire season. They got Conley in the first. Obie Mellon Fowaloo, who is my favorite human being on the planet in the second round, safety. It's my fiance and OB, are 1A and 1B,

as far as my favorite humans. Just if you look at his measurables, I mean, he was close to Byron Jones's all-time broad jump mark, which, I mean, I would tell you told me that a guy almost beat Byron Jones's broad jump mark, I don't even care how good of pro-Biron Jones is. I would trade up to the first round, first overall pick and get Obie. That's all I would be.

I really hope you run a team someday. And just get the jumpers. You're going to have the same boat shoes as Belichick. You're just going to care about the broad jump instead of a free card. The boat shoes thing is so overstated about me. I'm just saying you're going to come into that version of yourself. I own like two pairs. I'm from Florida.

We get issued that at birth. All right. Continue your love, your overwhelming love of the Raiders. Super Bowl. Anyway, they went defense. Look, I just think the health of the defense, I think Colomac is going to have an incredible year, even better than he was last year. And to go defense, you know, your first three picks, I love it. Everything about that makes sense. I think they absolutely are going to be in that conversation. I'm going to go with Pittsburgh just to be a little bit different. I think that that offense has a chance to be very good again.

If Brian comes back, you pick Juju Smith-Schuster, I call him Schuster Smith, as a way to just get Sammy Coats out of your life. You know, I don't think that's a Martavis Bryant. It is a slight Martavis Bryant insurance policy, but I think that's a way to say goodbye, Sammy Coates, this was fun. So you have a guy that can come and play for you right away at those spots. The rest of the offense is set, clearly. The offensive line is one of the best in the league every year. Ruffisberger can play. And I like DJ Watt. You know, I think they needed a guy at that spot to pair with Bud Dupree who came on late. They're loving those athletes at Pass Rush. That's exactly what Watt is. You'd hope that those

young corners, you know, they were some combination of injured and raw last season. Hopefully that can change as we move forward. I think that they're going to be right in the mix again. I almost pick the Steelers as a breaks right team. And what I mean by that is, T.J. Watt, if he is an impact player his first year, Bud Dupree's really good. That's a nasty pass rush. Totally.

And that's a team, if you combine that offense with the nasty pass rush, that's a Super Bowl winner. Yeah, I agree. And I like the players they have in the middle. I think that not having Cam Hayward, the playoffs is something we didn't really talk about. I mean, this is a defense with some players on it. And I think the Wock and BNX hit, then they're certainly in the conversation. Yeah. All right, buddy.

I agree with you. That's all we got. I think that, I don't know, we know exactly what our schedule is. We will, I'll tweet it out. I'll let you guys know when we're going to be back. So, like, I'm literally going to China on Thursday. Yeah, you're going to China after me. Yeah, I'm not going to China, but I'm going to other places.

The data rates for me to call into a 40-minute podcast might be a little high. I'm sure that, yeah, I'm sure your girlfriend would love that. But yeah, we'll figure that out. All right, buddy, we will, as always, thank you for doing this with me. Thank you guys for listening. It's always fun. And we'll talk to you soon. Thanks, guys.