The Ringer NFL Show - Drew Lock Gives the Seahawks a Shot, the Complete Buffalo Bills, and More Big Takeaways from Week 15 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: December 19, 2023

Sheil and Ben return to share their takes on the Seahawks' upset win over the Eagles on ‘MNF’. They then focus on the Buffalo Bills' recent turnaround, and the Falcons' apparent collapse (12:59). ...Next, Sheil sees big coordinator issues in Green Bay, while Ben hopes that the reputation of Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t go the way of the once-impeccable Bill Belichick (29:57). Finally, Ben uses today’s Extra Point to break down the machinations of the Coach of the Year award (51:35). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 The Rigger Gambling Feed is back every Monday. Join myself Joe House, Rahim Palmer and John Dershepsky for East Coast Bias. Sunday's action recap and our favorite bets for Monday night football. Then on Tuesday we got the Rosseudamish show where I'll break down everything you need to know in the betting world. Plus the East Coast Bias boys will be back on Thursday to help you get your betting card sorted ahead of all the NFL action. And then on Fridays it's me back with Warren Sharp, deep diving into the analytics. So be sure to subscribe on. Spotify or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Welcome to Extra Point. Take a chill Kapati here. Joined by Ben Solac following the Seahawks' comeback win in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hertz battled through an illness was okay for three quarters, fell apart in the fourth quarter. I am battling through an illness. I feel like I could have a similar performance where you'll be like, it's not that bad. And then by the time we hit like maybe the 40 minute mark, you'll be like, all right, we need to wrap this up. What is this guy about to say?
Starting point is 00:01:15 So that's what you're getting into here tonight. Benny Solves, how we doing? You know, just love watching my favorite team lose to Drew Locke on national television. That's how I like to spend a Monday. Just watch Drew Locke do his little fake back-back celebration in my face. And the worst part of my first take off the game, the worst part of my first take off the game. Everyone's like, oh, I'm so happy for Drew Locke.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Oh, what I have you. Give a great post game interview, super emotional, super honest. And the whole time I'm just there like, the one guy in America not enjoying it. I actually, yeah, I did enjoy his post-game interview on the field. It was very genuine, authentic, and men a lot to him goes 92 yards to beat the Eagles to keep the Seahawks playoff hopes alive. All right, we're going to talk about that game, but we're also going to talk about everything else that happened in week 15. You were telling me before you're like, you know, you might, you can sit this one out.
Starting point is 00:02:10 Don't worry about it. holidays are coming up. And I'm like, we only got so many more of these, Benny's souls. If I can battle through, I got a battle through. So that's what I decided to do. All right, lead us off. You've got our first take. If you, listen, if you want to hear a big Eagles take or like 45 minutes on the Eagles, you can go to the Winger's Philly Special. We spoke at length about the Eagles angle there. They lose three in a row. They look like they're falling apart. But what is your take for extra point taken on this game? Yeah, I'll give you half of an Eagles take and then I'll give you half of a Seahawks
Starting point is 00:02:38 takes in a little teaser. The Eagles take, and I think it's important, right? We do feel a special per week, but we got to talk an extra point taking about how important this NFC champion of last year, this is kind of falling apart now, three straight losses.
Starting point is 00:02:49 The first time there's been three straight losses for an Eagles team under Nick Seriani since his first season as a coach, Jen's Hurts' first established season as the starter. Fundamentally, the most important thing to understand about the Eagles right now is this. The defensive issues are not going away, and this team can be relied upon to be anyone.
Starting point is 00:03:07 Like, their upcoming schedule as Giants, Cardinals, Giants, and we should be able to say, like, oh, well, you know, they'll beat those three teams, and then once they beat those three teams, because the Cowboys lost the bills, they'll win the division. And, like, sure, but all professional offenses can drop 90s yard scoring drives on this team's head. Once Drew Locke does it to you, everybody's doing it to you.
Starting point is 00:03:27 That's the reality of it. The reason is because personnel-wise, the Eagles last year were a great example of a defense that min-maxed, right? They built through the pass rush. It's been a ton of money resources there, built into coverage, get two strong outside corners, put a ton of money there, and that's your maxing, and then your minning is just, okay, like, TJ Edwards, he's a UDFA's been around for us for a few years, TJ's in there, read Blankets, UDFA safety, throw them out there, he'll get some good reps,
Starting point is 00:03:52 he'll be okay for you, right? So they, they, you gotta fill in the gaps at the non-premium positions, but you're super heavily invest in the premium positions, and that is an acceptable framework for team building, like that's a good way of going about it, like getting a nice defense on the field. That was last year. This year, this year, a team that tried to mid-max and it just goes way too far. Like, firstly, they're maxing, right? They're all their monies on Bradbury and Slay and the Jalen Carter top 10, Jordan Davis, top 15, Hassan Reddick extension, Josh Sweat extension.
Starting point is 00:04:20 They're not getting enough from those players. And then the non-max, the men guys, the linebackers, the safeties, the nickel corner, like they just got nobody, right? They have zero playable linebackers on the roster. They have played significant snaps from Nicholas Morrow, Zach Cunningham, to Kobe Dean and Darius Leonard over the course of the season, excuse me, Shaq Leonard, over the course of the season, and not a one of them has looked like an impact.
Starting point is 00:04:38 player. And so right now this defense does not, there's no solution around the corner. There's no Darius Slay gets back. Matt Patricia takes over play calling and there's a jump here. Like the only way it happens is if Hassan Reddick and Josh Sweets are taking games over. And that's every defense is just hoping their two best guys take games over. Their passers takes games over. So there's this, there's not going away. Like whoever they draw on the wild card round, Minnesota Vikings, Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson, Rams, Matthew Stafford, Stafford, Cooper Cup, Pook, and Akua. They are liable to lose to that team because of their defensive issues.
Starting point is 00:05:06 So there's my little Eagles teaser for you. I will say of the Seahawks, I am objectively kind of happy for Drew Locke. It's really, I think, cool when a guy who had an experience like Locke did where he was drafted to be a starter, had a chance to be a starter, couldn't get that job,
Starting point is 00:05:26 had a lot of criticism, was very disappointed in himself, received a lot of heat, got traded away and had a new start. Can get a big win like this, can get a big moment like that. And I think it is doubly impactful when the guy that he's replacing as the starter went through the exact same thing. And the relationship that Gino and Drew are kind of showing that they have is really, really cool.
Starting point is 00:05:46 Gino was a second round pick. He was going to be the Jep starter. He couldn't get the job. He bounced around the league. He found a home in Seattle. And he's been such a good shepherd to Locke. Like, Locke got asked about him in the post game presser. You know, what does Gino do for you?
Starting point is 00:05:57 And he just went for two minutes on just like, Gino is the man. He's the unsung hero. He said Gino was on the sideline before the two-minute drive, telling Drew Locke that Drew Locke was the best. player on the field, which is lying through your teeth. That's what you got it. That's what you do, right? That's how you lead. Drew Locke hits that game when he touchdown, Smith and Jigba,
Starting point is 00:06:14 throws up his little backpack celebration. Who's there on the sideline doing it right back to him is Gino Smith. Gino's been where he's been and understands what it means to get back on the field as a backup, have an opportunity to win a couple games and put some good film out there. Extend your career. Extend your earning. Hang around in this league.
Starting point is 00:06:29 So it is, it was so cool when it happened to Gino for the Seahawks at the beginning of last year. Obviously not the same thing is going to have. after lock. Geneo's going to be back next week, but it is objectively cool when a guy who goes through that process of being an early pick and all that criticism gets that opportunity to have a big win and it actually gets the hay in the barn. Shout out to Drew Locke. Eagles hat off. Eagles had back on. I hate Drew Locke. But Eagles hat off. Shout out to him. Yeah, no, it was one of the best post game, just on field interviews I've seen in a long time. He was getting emotional. He was
Starting point is 00:06:58 talking about how you get back out there and you're like, can I do this? I mean, even these players at the highest level, they are professional athletes. They always you know, you still have a little bit of self-doubt, always unless you're just like the elite of the elite where you're so used to succeeding. And so I thought that was very honest, very authentic from him. I thought he was great about it. Even when he and Gino Smith had that quarterback competition,
Starting point is 00:07:21 the way Drew Locke was talking about it at that time, I remember being like, oh, this is like pretty impressive here. And so part of that speaks to the culture. You know, Pete, Carol, we can sit here and we can rip him for his in-game decision-making with stuff tonight. And that's absolutely fair. And then you zoom out and you realize, you know what? That's only a part of what being an NFL head coach is.
Starting point is 00:07:41 And this was an old school Seahawks game where Pete Carroll will be jumping on top of lockers. When I covered that Seahawks team, literally on top of lockers in Minnesota, they were playing at University of Minnesota, I believe, that year. And he's on there asking, can you win the game in the, no, can you win the game in the second? No, can you win the game in the third quarter? No, can you win the game in the fourth quarter? And everyone goes nuts. They just hang in there and they hang in there and they hang in there. has this belief that don't worry. The next thing that happens is going to be a good thing for us,
Starting point is 00:08:10 and we're going to eventually win the game. And it doesn't always work that way. Part of it is just kind of that coaching intangibles, philosophy, all that stuff, culture, all the stuff we can't quantify. But the guy's track record speaks for itself. They had never lost four in a row under Pete Carroll. They lost four in a row. Their underdogs at home to the Eagles, they look pretty lifeless for a big part of that game. and then they put together a 92-yard drive in the fourth quarter. They get two interceptions in the fourth quarter. They win that game. They keep their season alive.
Starting point is 00:08:43 Now, hopefully, you get Gino Smith back healthy, and you go at Tennessee, your home against the Steelers, at the Cardinals. None of those are gimmies, but those are very winnable games where you now have a great shot at getting back to the postseason. So a monstrous, monstrous win for the Seahawks, where if you would have interviewed Seahawks fans with what, six minutes left in the fourth quarter. I mean, think of what the conversation would be right now.
Starting point is 00:09:06 It's amazing how much can change in a short amount of time. Six minutes left in the fourth quarter, you're going, they're probably looking at their fifth straight loss. What are the offseason questions? Is it the same leadership back? Is Gino back? What are they? And now we're talking about, hey, they got a great chat to get into the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:09:22 So it's wild. It's why we love it. So much of this can change in such a short amount of time. Yeah, the Cioxs don't yet control their destiny where I like win out and they're in. but in the event that the Vikings lose to the Lions this upcoming week, then they will control their destiny. And let me tell you something. I think the Vikings are going to lose to the Lions this upcoming week.
Starting point is 00:09:41 In the event that the Rams lose to the Saints on Thursday night, the Seahawks control their destiny. I don't think that one's going to happen, but they don't need much to get to a point where they're winning in. And like you said, Titans, Steelers, Cardinals, far from gimmies, but also, I think, eminently winnable games for a team that is going to be getting Gino back and critically. defensively, they started the season strong,
Starting point is 00:10:02 and it was kind of like, holy spokes of the C.OX defense, and that's falling away. I think, like, the reality of their defense is very clear. Offensively, this line is better now than I think it's been like at any point in the season, just from the health, continuity, and play perspective. And then you've gotten some good DK games recently. Smith and Jigbuzz better now than he's been. And you have Walker and Sharbonne both healthy and active.
Starting point is 00:10:24 Like, the first part of the year was like all Kenneth Walker. And then Sharbony kind of got activated once Walker missed some time. another both there. Like, offensively, this is about, once Gino's back, about as good of a Cox unit as we've seen all season.
Starting point is 00:10:35 I do think they have like legit firepower to them down the stretch. Walker was awesome tonight. I mean, he was like, in the middle part of that game. I mean,
Starting point is 00:10:44 he was really putting the offense on his back, breaking tackles, making guys miss. He just looked so much more athletic than those Eagles defender. So he was terrific in this game. I didn't necessarily love
Starting point is 00:10:55 their entire offensive game plan. In this game, about what you saw in that last drive. It was like you probably could have leaned into this more throughout the course of the game, just taking shots against these inexperienced Eagles corners. But overall, I think it's a well-schemed offense. And yeah, they've given themselves a shot with three to go here. So that's all you can ask for.
Starting point is 00:11:14 All right. I'm up. My first take here, Benjamin. Maybe this is how the bills finally do it. Oh, yeah? I love it. Listen, they've never won a Super Bowl. They've come close.
Starting point is 00:11:26 If you're old like me, if you're young like a. so like you won't remember it. If you're old like me, you'll remember the Jim Kelly teams. Jim Kelly. Then they have the Sean McDermott teams. They've never won one. But sometimes Ben, when a tortured fan base finally breaks through, it just has to be weird. It cannot be easy. Eagles first Super Bowl win was Nick Foles, man. Listen, I said, you got to come in the other direction. Those are the two examples that I always, I always reference. One is 2004. I'm in college. Red Sox down 3-0 to the Yankees. If you're younger, you're going, don't bring the Red Sox at that time,
Starting point is 00:12:04 where a cursed franchise had not won since 1918. They're down 3-0 to the Yankees. They come back. They win that series 4-3. They win their first World Series. 2017. Eagles. I did a podcast after Carson Wentz got injured where it was a funeral,
Starting point is 00:12:21 where I said, this team is done. Maybe in the future, they'll have a chance. He'll get healthy. They'll come back. Nick Foles comes in. Nick Foles and Doug Peterson against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl for a franchise
Starting point is 00:12:35 that had never won a Super Bowl, guess what? Somehow they pulled it off. It's just something about sports, sometimes in these situations, it has to get a little weird. So that brings me to the 2020. I do want to say real quick,
Starting point is 00:12:49 you also did have a pod before that Eagles Patriots game where you made another prediction that was far, far, far better than the funeral prediction. You have your flowers for that one. Thank you for reminding everyone of that. Now we have these 20-23 Buffalo Bills, Ben.
Starting point is 00:13:02 We have a season in which they started six and six. We had a revelation that Sean McDermott was using actual 9-11 terrorists as an example of working together. Organization. This was a thing that happened. This was a thing that happened. They lose their best linebacker. They lose their best cornerback. They fire their offensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:13:25 And look where they are. Look at what they did to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. I mean, you watch that game. Josh Allen completes seven passes, and it doesn't matter. They're just pounding the football 49 times for 266 yards under center, play action, shotgun, quarterback designed of three different running backs. It doesn't matter. The Cowboys cannot stop them. Defensively, a group that looked like one of the worst in the NFL in the middle bar.
Starting point is 00:13:57 season. After those injuries, they hold Dag Prescott to 3.9 yards per attempt. This team is now 8 and 6 with a plus 125 point differential that's fifth in the NFL. They are third in DVOA. They're passing the eye test. They've got the juice back. Josh Allen's got the energy back. So maybe, maybe after all this weirdness, the bills, maybe just talking about them in the playoffs isn't enough. Maybe just talking about them as NFC, AFC East Champs isn't enough. Maybe all of this is going to lead to the culminate. Look at that. How many teams in the NFL tomorrow on a neutral field are you picking over the bills? I've got the 49ers. And that might be it. Are there two, is there a better team in the
Starting point is 00:14:49 AFC, then the Buffalo bills right now if they played on a neutral field tomorrow. I'm not sure that there is. On my power rankings, which I like up for that I use for batting, which is just like a general luck at like how good your team is. I have them behind the Niners. I have them behind the Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:15:05 I have them behind the Cowboys. Obviously, I think if the bills and the Cowboys are playing a neutral field tomorrow, I would feel a certain way about it. So I have behind those three. The matchup with Dallas, I think, you know, no Jonathan Hankins. the way they were able to run the football is really, really eye-popping.
Starting point is 00:15:22 It would be one thing if Josh Allen is heroically wrenching this Bill's team through the dust. I'm an MVP caliber player. I'm one of the great. That's what I thought was going to need to happen. And you know what I talked about it. I was very, like I, when we looked at that 6 and 6th and 6th Bill's team and they were 11 to 1 to make the playoffs, I bet on them to make the playoffs, but I bet on more on Josh Allen to win MVP because I said, okay, in the world to which they win the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:15:49 certainly Allen's the MVP. Nobody told me he was going to throw for 97 yards in a multi-score win over the Cowboys. The bills look recently complete. And that's the thing. It's like the nature of this improvement is really the shocking thing. Aaron shots of FDN, who manages DVOA,
Starting point is 00:16:10 show that the bills had a top six, top seven DVOA in the first stretch of the season. And then week five and week six came. And that was when they lost DeQuan Jones, when they lost Chardavius White, and when they lost Matt Milano, right? From week six to 10, 32nd in defensive DVA over that stretch.
Starting point is 00:16:27 Since week 11, back to fifth. They've played the Jets, the Eagles, the Chiefs, and the Cowboys in that stretch. That's nothing to sneeze at, all right? That is a good offensive stretch. Listen, they've made a lot of investments in running the ball since the beginning of 2022. You're starting to see that payoff.
Starting point is 00:16:47 They have a good defensive mind and Sean McDermott who's got more control over the defense than he had in season's past. You've seen that payoff. And it turns out Josh, you still Josh you when he needs to be, right? You didn't need him against the Cowboys, but you still have it. He's been playing that way all season. So the bills feel complete. And then, yeah, they've also kind of looked death in the face over the course of this
Starting point is 00:17:03 with everything that's happened, right? With all the chaos of it all, certainly at the end of last season, there was catastrophe and the DeMarth Hamill. They've been through so much that they're, yeah, certainly going to fields to go through the playoffs. Like, listen, we can get through this. We've gone through worse stuff before. And the pressure comes off a little bit when you're entering, you know, the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:18 potentially the way they're going to enter the playoffs. So we'll see. That's just that was a thought that came to mind when I was watching this Bill's team on Sunday. I don't know how many teams in the NFL I like more than them. They've beaten the dolphins already. They've beaten the Chiefs already. They play the Ravens on a neutral field. Good matchup.
Starting point is 00:17:37 Raven's very good team. I don't know. I might lean bills in that matchup. So you've got that. Those are the teams need to probably get through in the AFC. Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself. maybe they're going to fall apart still down the stretch that happens sometimes with these teams where you feel great about them in week 15 and then they have a setback in week 16, 17 or 18. But man, I really like how they're play.
Starting point is 00:17:58 One thing I don't think you mentioned their offensive line. Like this looks as good as a Bill's offensive line has played maybe since Josh Allen got there. I wrote the exact thing in the hot read. And I texted a couple of people because I wasn't dialed in on the 2018 Bill's offensive line. So I texted some bills people. and I was just like, this is the best office line Josh has played with, right? And everybody was like, yes, period.
Starting point is 00:18:19 But this is, they are a complete, like, Don't get Cade, Khalil Shakir, James Cook. They have targets that are in Stefan Diggs. A lot of the stuff that we've been knocking the bills for the last couple of years, very quietly, well, all this nonsense is going on. They cleaned up a lot of it, and they feel complete.
Starting point is 00:18:35 They really do. Yeah, so there you go. Keep an eye on the bills. I'm not sure what their ceiling is, but man, they're at the Chargers next week, and then they get the Patriots at home. And as Solek pointed out last week, if they pick up a game on the dolphins,
Starting point is 00:18:49 the next two weeks and win those two, they finish the season at Miami in a game that could be for the division. And now you're talking about putting yourself in an even better spot as you go into the AFC playoffs. All right. Take a break. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:02 Come back. We'll get to Solex. Second take. All right. We are back on extra point. Take it. Benny Souls. What do you got?
Starting point is 00:19:23 Yeah. Okay. The Atlanta Falcons. I feel like I should be doing a Stephen A. Smith video like he does for the cowboys where I'm just laughing. The Atlanta Falcons. I didn't mean to do that. I washed my hands of you.
Starting point is 00:19:37 I cast you up. I deny you. Three times I deny you. Truly, truly, truly, I say, I do not know you. I cut whatever bonds we shared. I cast away all association with you. I expunge you from this podcast. Forevermore, you are expelled.
Starting point is 00:19:52 No more. I'm so done. I'm finished with the Atlanta Falcons. You cannot lose a game to the Carolina Panthers, which they don't score a touchdown. When you are within a game, you cannot do this. I'm finished with the Falcons.
Starting point is 00:20:13 Now, when I believed in the Falcons, Sheel, much of it was construed as belief in Desmond Ritter, which certainly was there. But the beginning of my belief in the Falcons, was I really liked this running game, their size, their physicality. I thought they were zagging where the league's offensive meta was zinging. I thought that they were going to present a good foil to what most offenses did, and that that was going to put them in a unique position to put defenses in binds.
Starting point is 00:20:40 Last year, they were third in the league in rushing success rate, shield. There was 11th and explosive run rate. And this was a Marcus Mariano quarterback. They had some mobility in quarterback, not really a mobile quarterback. This was a legitimate rushing team. They invested in the running game early in the draft shield. They added Bejohn Robinson and the first round, Matthew Bergeron to play guard in the second round.
Starting point is 00:21:01 They brought Johnny Smith a second tight end into the building, right? They invested in the offseason in this running game. They are 23rd in Russian success rate this year. They are 14th an explosive. They are 23rd in success rate. Where this team's bread was supposed to be buttered, they completely faltered. They lost the thread.
Starting point is 00:21:20 And that brings you to the second issue, which is development. why are all of the players getting worse here? Bejohn Robinson had his season low participation in rushing share. He had a season low snap participation. If you just watch Bejohn, remember those first few games of Bejohn? We were like, what the frick? Look at this cat.
Starting point is 00:21:40 Move! This guy's going to be a sensation. Catching the ball, running the ball. He's making guys miss some space. He's lost confidence. His routes are bad. A lot of times when I was talking about Ritter and talking about Bejon, I was talking about they don't agree on any routes.
Starting point is 00:21:53 They don't know where the placements are. They're constantly throwing to areas where he's not kind of, they're like the fourth down miss against the Buccaneers two weeks ago where Bejohn bends the route up and Ritter throws it flat. This is happening constantly? Why is your good receiving back getting worse at running routes and catching balls over time? Why is he being phased out of the running game?
Starting point is 00:22:11 Why can you develop him? Kyle Pitts. Pitts is just, the spacing is worse. And the route where Ritter throws the interception, he's trying to target Pitts, and he wants Pitts to work to where they're, space and he doesn't. Like they can't find a way to get him activated.
Starting point is 00:22:26 He's worse now than he wasn't in his rookie season where he was setting tight on records. Ritter. Like even like, even if you're never were like Ritter is good. Ritter is very clearly worse now than he was before he got benched. You were four in three. You were four and three and you benched your quarterback halfway through the Titans game and you went to lose three games in a row and you had to put him back out in the field.
Starting point is 00:22:44 How was that going to help a player? When we were talking about Smith at the podium in the middle of the season where it's like, okay, dude, you're making decisions, you're putting the team a certain way, whatever. Stop hurting. yourself, stop hurting your team, by constantly, like, increasing the visibility on these decisions and back talking anybody who questions them and, oh, you know, you just don't get football and, oh, this is a good football decision. Smith keeps making this team worse.
Starting point is 00:23:08 He's dragging the team down. He is negatively impacting the team. That all brings us now to Ritter, which, like, I thought Ritter was going to be in a good incubator, an environment where they were good off play-action pass, which, by the way, they're not good off play-action passes this year. is the other thing they were supposed to be good at. Good off play action pass and wouldn't have to throw the ball a lot and could just play ball control and just be not an issue for the offense,
Starting point is 00:23:31 then let all the skill position players work for him. Obviously, he hasn't got the running game working for him and the play action pass, the skill position the way you wanted to, but he's now shot himself in the foot so many times. There's no foot left, right? You can't just turn the ball over this much in the red zone. The model for the quarterback of this offense has to be a don't make mistakes quarterback. You got to make tight window throws.
Starting point is 00:23:48 You got to make tough throws. But still, it's like run, run, run and be successful. Like, do not hurt yourself because you're going to play a shorter game. You're going to have fewer drives because of the ball control nature of this offense. You cannot end in turnovers. And Ritter just turning the football over too much. It's not safe enough with the ball to be viable, right? You'd rather have somebody out there who just is sitting on it in game managing.
Starting point is 00:24:07 Your Derek Carr's of the world out there, even if they're not going to elevate for you. At least they're going to let the offense work for itself. And so Ritter has not been able to take on the character, the play style, of the sort of quarterback that this offense needs. So I disavowed this team. I cast them aside. Anybody asks me, say, oh, where those ridder takes? I don't know the man, right?
Starting point is 00:24:27 Peter, when the Romans were crucifying Jesus, I've never heard of him before. I wasn't walking around with him. Who is this guy? I've never heard of this guy. I'm done with them. I'm out on the Falcons, and I never was in on them. There you go. That was a low point Sunday.
Starting point is 00:24:41 You're so right about the team you might have envisioned the Falcons to be. That's the type of game that they should be able to run for 220. 25 yards. One of the worst rushing defenses in the league in the Carolina. Right. It's a downpour. It's a team that is one win all season. Now, I know the Falcons had offensive line injuries,
Starting point is 00:25:01 but give me a break. Every team has injuries this time of year, and they couldn't do it. You know, they get into the red zone. Ritter makes the mistake. And the defense can't get off the field. I mean, that's, what, a 17-play drive that took off like seven minutes of the clock
Starting point is 00:25:15 by the Panthers against your defense. So I think you hit the nail on the head with the offense. you know, Arthur Smith absolutely has a resume of being able to do, as I say, more with less, being an offensive schemer. Last year, this offense was eighth in offensive DVOA with Marcus Mariotta, mostly at quarterback. And so as much as I made fun of you earlier in the season, I did see some of the reasoning for the optimism around this team. They're all the way down to your 25th in offensive DVOA. you spent three straight top 10 picks on offensive players.
Starting point is 00:25:51 You're paying three offensive linemen $10 million or more, and you're supposed to be a good offensive coach in your 25th in offensive DVOA. And by the way, you have no playing at quarterback for the future. Like, that's a freaking disaster to be in that spot. I mean, these are like, what is going on with Bajon Robertson? Right. Like, no, this cannot be. Drake London last, you know, a couple of weeks ago,
Starting point is 00:26:16 takes over that game and puts you in position to win? Like, why is it not every week? What Kyle Pitts? What's going on? You handpick these guys with a vision with a plan. Again, these were top 10 picks. These are premium picks. These are picks that oftentimes you spend at least one of them on the lines of scrimmage
Starting point is 00:26:34 or at quarterback and you spend one on a running back and a tight end. You better be right about those. And it doesn't look like you were right about those. You're 20th in rushing DVOA. How do you go from third to 20th when you added a top 10? pick at running back. It's so bad. It's so bad. That's terrible. So I'm with you. I mean, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:26:53 I don't know what direction they go in. And by the way, you didn't even mention who was the first team who said they're not interested. Lamar Jackson, all right, non-exclusive franchisee. Who is the first team to, you know, leak or report that they're not interested? Who's the Atlanta Falcons? I mean, they've passed your boy, Justin Field, who you like more than me. At least it would be like, I don't know. I could talk myself into that being a lot more fun.
Starting point is 00:27:16 If you had just, they just pass on quarterback over and over and over again and say, well, build up the rest of the roster. In theory, okay, let's see it. Well, now you have one of the worst offenses in the league. You can't win a terrible division and you have no plan for the future. So now what? So, yeah, if you are a Falcons fan, this season really could not have gone any worse for you. And take the fields thing.
Starting point is 00:27:37 I talked about how, like, a quarterback needs to be able to avoid turnovers in order to work in this offense. That's obviously never been fields. But, okay, it should work as of the play action pass and because of the running game. but their running game is remarkably worse than it was last year. Their play action pass game is worse than it was last year. Like, even though like designs-wise, philosophy-wise, that's just how the offense works. I have lost faith in Smith's ability to make a quarterback like that work
Starting point is 00:28:01 because of the issues they've had this season. Like there's no question that Ritter has lost them games with his turnovers. But I don't watch Ritter and see a player who is so dramatically limiting a quarterback that you shouldn't be able to just go run on, run shot, run run run run shot with Caleb McGarry extension Chris Lynch from extension Matt Bergman
Starting point is 00:28:19 Bergeron selection Drew Dolman Bejohn Robinson Tyler Algear multiple tight end sets you are built for this you are built for mediocre quarterback and you just walking down the field with the other 10 players this is what you decided to do
Starting point is 00:28:30 and now and you were good at it and now you're not and it's falling away and so again like my falcons interest was based so much on the philosophy of the team and the way that Smith designed it going back to his titans days
Starting point is 00:28:42 I like the way that he designed offense it stopped working this year. And he has not been able to pull them out of the tailspin. And in the meantime, and his attempts to, he has, I think, like, handicapped and crippled the development of players like Vijon, who's lost steam tremendously, like Ritter, who looks like he's seeing ghosts out there in a terrible way. Like, you had the chance to help these guys if you had your thumb on the pulse of the offense. And if your buttons were working, your dials are working, your system was working, and it did it. You failed the job. And so now you're left, okay, like, you're still a Drake
Starting point is 00:29:10 London team, you're still a Bejohn-Robinson team, you're still a Kyle Pitts team. But all those dudes are a year older, all of them are a year closer to getting paid or getting out, and you still have to solve the quarterback problem. Unbelievable swing and miss of a season offensively for the Falcons. And Ryan Nielsen is good. Ryan Nielsen is good and you're wasting it. And their backup plan was
Starting point is 00:29:27 Taylor Heineckee. I mean, it's like what you talked about. That is not the they avoid mistake type quarterback. Like if they had Jacoby Percett starting every game this season, they probably are winning the division. If every team had Jacoby percent starting every game this evening, maybe 16 and now. Jacoby, man. But four
Starting point is 00:29:43 four throws into that Commander's Rams game. I was like, there he is. Our boy. You're back in? The ideal QB2. Just every time we talked about Jacoby Bresset, we were screaming about the Jets, we refindicated, because look at that man, go.
Starting point is 00:29:58 All right. All right. My second take. I usually don't like doing this, but Matt LaFleur needs to recognize he has a defensive coordinator problem. I'm not the one to say, this guy should be fired, this guy should be fired. I usually try to not do that. But when you watch that game,
Starting point is 00:30:13 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and see Joe Barry's defense get lit up by Baker Mayfield. In what was pretty close to a must-win game for the Packers, Baker Mayfield goes 22 for 28 for 381 yards and four touchdowns. The Bucks had
Starting point is 00:30:31 one fumble and one punt. They scored on every other possession. Four touchdowns. Two field goals. Second half, Packers could not do anything. From Next Gen stats, Benjamin. Again, when the Packers were in zone coverage, Baker Mayfield, 20 for 24 for 361 yards.
Starting point is 00:30:51 This was, based on EPA per fast play, the ninth best performance by a quarterback all season. Baker played well. I don't want to take anything away from Godwin was amazing in that game. At the same time, this is not a one-game thing. Remember last week, this Packers defense failed to sack Tommy DeVito? Did you watch Tommy DeVito against that Saints defense? He got sacked seven times.
Starting point is 00:31:17 He's eminently sackable quarterback. He's eminently sackable. They didn't sack him once on the season. The Packers are all the way down to 29th in defensive DVOA. Last year, they were 25th. The year before, to be fair to Joe Barry, they were 12. So he has one good year out of three. But I look at this Packers team.
Starting point is 00:31:36 We might have been wrong. Let's see what happens in the final three weeks here. They lose two games to the Giants and the Bugs. Oh, that is tough. The offense I thought played well enough to win that game on Sunday against Tampa. I respect loyalty. I don't like just, you know, failure, just pushing the buck and saying this is somebody else's ball.
Starting point is 00:31:54 I respect the loyalty from Lafleur, but you're an offensive-minded head coach. You need to be able to hand the keys to a defensive coordinator and say, take care of it, handle it. I'm going to be hands off, get the most out of the talent we have, give us a little bit of an edge. and we just have not seen that from Joe Barry's defenses the last two years. So this was a transition year for the Packers. Maybe you wanted to stick with him for another year. That's fine.
Starting point is 00:32:20 But looking ahead, like, this can be a legit team next year. Every offensive player is young. You can add to this group. They're getting more reps. I could see me doing an extra point taking in August, say, Packers are going to the suicide. Something wild. You know how you get me on those Jordan love takes.
Starting point is 00:32:38 I'm going to say, pretty much. I want some Jordan Love contracts to talk about. And now he's lost. He's 0.N2 since you said you'd give him the Kyler deal. I'm still in. I'll buy, dude, the Jayden Reed touchdown?
Starting point is 00:32:50 Oh, nasty. He's going to miss some throws. That's fine. You work on that footwork stuff in the off season, like Kyle Shanahan says, you come back the next year and you're even better. He's plenty good enough now.
Starting point is 00:33:02 But assembling a strong coaching staff, I mean, that's like on the top of the list of being a good head coach. Look at what the bike. did. Larry, they go Ed Donatelle to Brian Flores. It completely changed their season. If they're still running this group with Ed Donatel this year, they're not even in the mix. So I'm just saying, you know, Matt LaFler, you got to look at that situation. You have to be smart. You can't be too loyal. Is your defensive coordinator giving you the best chance to maximize the talent on the roster?
Starting point is 00:33:30 If not, you need to think about making a move that well. So there you go. Yeah. You know who he's going to hire, right? Uh-oh. Who is he going to hire? Joe Barry's old boss. Oh my gosh. Staley? Yes, the recently become available, Brandon Staley. Hey, defensive play calling your experience. You can manage that side of the ball for us, head coaching experience.
Starting point is 00:33:49 No. I agree with your assessment. I think you're right to say, you know, loyalty is reasonable. Like, just push the buck and the other guys. That sort of explanation does, in my opinion, pass more muster when the guy wasn't the defense coordinator of the Detroit Lions from 2007 to 2008 was bad then, got another defensive coordinator job with the Washington football team 2015 and 2016 and was also bad then.
Starting point is 00:34:15 Right? There's one thing to say, like, we like our guy, we like his philosophy, we think it's going to turn the corner. When the response is, what about those first two times you coached defense and it didn't turn the corner? Like, that's where I think you lose a little bit, you lose me a little bit. And that's why it's just been tough for me on Barry since 21, 22, like early in his tenure. The other thing is that with Barry is that, like, obviously, the degree to which he's
Starting point is 00:34:37 a defense can be memed, does not actually mean anything in terms of good or bad. We all love taking screenshots of Preston Smith when he's lined up over a slot receiver, right? He's like 280 pound outside linebacker, but structurally, defense-wise, run a 3-4, so he has to. But there is something to be said for the fact that Barry runs stuff that, like, got solved a while ago. Like, I like Dave Canales, the Bucks OC. I think he did a good job, and he's done a good job all season. but in general, like the buttons you push against a Barry style defense, they've been known for a while. They've been known since he got the job.
Starting point is 00:35:13 This is a pretty cut and dry. We're going to line up about 11 players and ask them to be the best guys and line up and play it simple, stupid. Similar like John Gannon with the Eagles, right? Like, all right, four-man rush, like, you know, two linebackers, nickel. Like when you have a basic defense, you're always going to lose to the good OCs. And so, all right, you have good personnel and you beat up the bad OCs and you make it to the playoffs, you're not going to get a three-game run in January where you don't run
Starting point is 00:35:39 into a good coordinator. And you're going to lose that game, right? Kyle Shanahan waxes Joe Barry every time he finds him. Like, it's just, I'm not interested in defensive coordinators who can't do creative things when they're outclassified the opposing offense, when they run into a threshing machine. Because the league is too full of good offenses. You can't expect to run so pure in the playoffs that you don't run into one of those guys. And that's why, like, I always like my Brian Flores, who, like, do a ton of chaotic nonsense. and every so often give up a play where it's like, well, yeah, you know, you had a safety coming off the line of scrimmage to cover a guy 90 yards away.
Starting point is 00:36:13 Like that wasn't going to work. Like, they have those plays. They have those moments. But I prefer those dudes who throw chaos to the wall because it'll give you a fighting chance when you play January football and you invariably run into a Ben Johnson. It runs to a Kyle Shannon. Some guy in the NFC who just schemes it up, X's and O's and outcoaches you for four quarters. Yeah, there's nothing less valuable than beating up on bad offenses.
Starting point is 00:36:34 and patting your stats a little bit and making it look good at the end of the season when we know, no, no, this wasn't a good defense. So that's how I felt watching that Packers game. Now, what I will say is, you know, this Packers defense was built for the Rogers era, right? They invested a lot and they had all these first round picks and, like, you know, it was supposed to be good then.
Starting point is 00:36:53 And there was kind of this feeling like, all right, like it's past its prime and now it's going to be in a bad spot, right? You're going to be, you know, this offense is so young and they're going to be evolving and they're going to be ready. Is the defense going to be there at the, at the same time. Well, I'll tell you, like this, like, they've gotten late in Van Derr, I assume not like Van Derrish, Lucas Van Ness.
Starting point is 00:37:10 I'm always going to get those names wrong. Lucas Van Ness on the field more recently, and he's playing nicely for them. Carl Brooks, day three pick, 300-pounder, defensive line that of Bowling Green. Good little player, all right? They hit on him as well. At corner, Jaya Alexander gets banged up.
Starting point is 00:37:26 They have Rasul Douglas starting all season. They end up shipping Rasul Douglas out because Carrington Valentine. Holy smokes. This kid is nuts. It's full, pure, 100% A-grade defensive back energy. Just constantly in everyone's face. Just for four quarters, the angriest person you've ever met, just screaming at wide receivers,
Starting point is 00:37:47 break up at this, 19 different celebrations for like a third and three inaccurate ball that he didn't actually force. He's playing well. Kishon Nixon's playing well. This front office in Green Bay, they always get away with it. I don't know how they do, but this 23 draft from, from what's named Coogan's, is nuts. The offensive
Starting point is 00:38:05 players are the highlight, like Reed, Luke Musgrave, like they hit on some of those picks, but defensively, they have good young pieces in the cover that have come around. And so, I think the Stevens is in a position where like, even as they start to get older on Devondra Campbell, and older on Preston Smith, and it feels like, right, they might be getting a little bit past their prime. They still got young guys
Starting point is 00:38:21 in the hopper ready to go. Like, this defense can turn around quick. Yeah. They're in a good, they're in a good spot going into 2024. I can already feel it that I'm going to be way too high on this Packers team going into 2024. All right, let's take one more break, and then we'll get back to our third takes. All right.
Starting point is 00:38:50 What do you got? What's your third take? Mike Tomlin's a good coach. He is. Absolutely is. He does have to be careful that he doesn't Belichick himself. And I think that's something we got to watch for this. It's important for me to start with Mike Tomlin as a good coach, because I spend all the
Starting point is 00:39:08 holidays arguing with my dad, whether or not Mike Tomlin's a good coach. My dad told me he. He can't go to the gym anymore because he would go to the gym and listen to Pittsburgh Sports Radio. But Pittsburgh Sports Radio is so upsetting to him now because Tomlin is ruining his enjoyment of football that he just can't work out anymore. I said, nope, get your butt back to the gym. You kind of get in shape. That's an unacceptable answer. But that's where Steelers' fans' heads are at, right?
Starting point is 00:39:27 That's where we're at with Tomlin. Now, Tomlin has had two playoff wins since 2016, right? They've made the playoffs two times since then, right? They haven't had good playoff performances. It was the end of the Ben Rothesberger era, in which case, like, you know, Let's talk about loyalty. That's how the Steelers tend to build things. They were really loyal to Ben Rothesburg over the end of his contract
Starting point is 00:39:46 when in reality, like Ben was just not a functional player for multiple years. They hired Matt Canada to be the OC, and then they kept him around, despite a lot of evidence that they shouldn't. There was loyalty there in that decision. And then, you know, I think Tomlin, and like this is where the Belichick conversation comes into play, I think Tomlin really likes the people that he knows. He really's comfortable with the guys that he's got and with the infrastructure he has. and he's been in Pittsburgh for so long.
Starting point is 00:40:11 He's not like one of these other coaches that's bounced around six different places and met 15 different guys and had a ton of osmosis of ideas and made some new connections and oh, let's bring this guy in and we'll pair him with this wide receiver coach and they'll blend their two offenses. Tom was just kind of operating in his social circle, which is a bit closed off since he's just been in Pittsburgh for so long. And so brings in Canada and he keeps Canada, right? They draft Kenny Pickett.
Starting point is 00:40:33 And when they drafted Pickett, they were like, Tomlin gave the quote where he was like, it's crazy that the guy was in our backyard the whole time. It's like, well, Mike, is there a chance that you just kind of looked in your backyard and stopped a little bit? Like, they like to be loyal to guys and give guys a long leash and kind of keep things in-house. With that said, Tomlin right now, like you and I like to talk about coach making good decisions. Since the last two years, he's seventh worst in making the right fourth down decision rate by analytics, right? He doesn't make the optimal analytics decision.
Starting point is 00:41:02 He doesn't make the optimal coaching staff decisions. The one thing that you and I tend to really grade coaches on, I've stolen this from you. I should really say you tend to great coaches on, is doing more with less. And I think there, Tomlin really passes the sniff test. And that's why he still feels like a good coach, right? The Steelers are just drafting and developing dudes left and right. And they've been doing it for ages, right? Alex Highsmith, fourth round pick.
Starting point is 00:41:23 All of a sudden, he's a huge second contract edge. We're going to get, you know, we're going to go get Minka from Miami. We're going to make him right. We're going to go and get Keanu Benton in the second round. He's going to be a starter for us behind Cam Hayward, right? We're going to draft all these day two wide receivers and Deontte Johnson's going to hit, and George Pickens is going to hit. Jaylen Warren, UDFA, they tend to bring guys on and they get in the Steelers incubator and they end up being successful.
Starting point is 00:41:45 Tomlin has a culture and an ability to do more with less. The Steelers are constantly getting outplayed in these games. They manage to eke out of wins. And I think that is culture. I think that is leadership. I think that's not blinking in the face of danger and that's being good in late game situations, being well coach and executing. So I think Tomlin is a good coach. But because of the proximity issue, right, I kind of know the guys that I know, there's a little bit of Belichick in Tomlin.
Starting point is 00:42:08 And then certainly with this upcoming offensive coordinator hire and this upcoming quarterback decision, there's a lot of Belichick's 22 off season in this upcoming 2023 off season for Tomlin. I was like, all right, Belichick, you did the Matt Patricia thing. That was weird. You've seen Mac Jones for two seasons. You know, you want to make a quarterback change. You want to bring in any competition. Like, what's the situation?
Starting point is 00:42:28 He was like, here's what I'm going to do. Bill O'Brien and I'm going to cut Bailey Zapion camp. And I was like, okay, that very clearly wasn't it, right? now Tomlin comes up with this office coordinator higher in this Kenny Pickett conversation and they've seen the last couple games of Mitchell Trubisky. They know he's not it. They're starting Mason Rudolph of all things.
Starting point is 00:42:47 They've seen enough Mason Rudolph to know he's not it either. So now you have Kenny and you have a new O.C. You've got to get this right because if you don't, we're going to be having the same conversations in 2020 or excuse me in 2024 that we have been having about Belichick in 23
Starting point is 00:43:03 where it's like, okay, I know he's still a good coach. I'm positive he's still a good coach. Like we always do like, oh, if he, he's got put on the street, he'd be hired by another team tomorrow. It's still absolutely true with Belichick. It's so absolutely true with Tomlin. But eventually you run out of capital in the building. Eventually you run out of capital with the fan base, especially when you're a defensive coach and this is an offense-driven league and you can't get that side of the ball right. So Tomlin is a good coach. Dad, I know you're listening. He's a good
Starting point is 00:43:25 coach. Don't text me and say I said it was a bad coach. But the parallels between Belichick's arc and Tomlin's arc are becoming a little bit more clear to me that makes this upcoming coordinator hire and also competition for Kenny Pickett. Really, really important this upcoming offseason. Yeah, he is another guy. And it's, yeah, I think Pete Carroll, even like Kyle Shanning and Sean McVeigh, like their in-game management has not been very good for years. Now, that's the one thing we watch on Sundays and we grade people on.
Starting point is 00:43:53 That's a small portion of what it means to be an NFL head coach. And so I do, I mean, even that, yeah, the Steelers game on Saturday. I mean, the decisions he's making in the fourth quarter of that game are terrible. at the same time you zoom out. What I like most about Tomlin is that he understands what his job is. He gave the interview to Ryan Clark, I think it was last offseason or the year before on their podcast, where he just articulated like what he feels like he needs to do as an NFL head coach, better than anyone I've ever heard say it.
Starting point is 00:44:22 So I think all that big picture stuff, culture, leadership, relating to players, being honest with them, putting guys in position to succeed, developing them. I think he's good at all those things. You're right. I mean, this is a big spot for him. I mean, with Canada, like, it kind of felt like he was trying to find a, like a guy on the cutting edge and he found the absolute wrong guy. Right.
Starting point is 00:44:46 But like the thought there seemed like it was okay, right? He wasn't just hiring somebody he knew. Here's what I'm worried about in terms of the Canada hire. I'm worried, here's what Tomlin did. Tom said, I'm a defensive coach. Man, when those sons guns run motion, it really pisses me off. Who runs the most motion? and they were like Matt Canada.
Starting point is 00:45:04 And he was like, let's get him in here. I got to hear what he has to say about offense. And they interviewed Canada. And they were like, so what do you do offensively? Canada was like a lot of motion. And Tomlin was like, yeah, that's, people do that. And that's bad. Does feel like that's what happened actually.
Starting point is 00:45:15 You got to talk to five people, Mike. You can't talk to one guy. You'll talk to five guys. Be like, what do the offenses do that you don't like? What are the good offenses? You got to bring five different guys in. And it can't just be like point at motion with a big red circle around. I'd be like, this is what we do.
Starting point is 00:45:29 It's got to be a little bit more holistic than that. And that's why, like, again, like, you know, like, that Andy Reid gets fired by the Eagles, and then he goes to Kansden, he has a ton of success. Like, sometimes is it just like, you know, there's a time to move on from a guy, despite all of his success. I don't know about that. Like, I just haven't lived long enough to have that good long term of a view. Like, I think that if I have a good coach in the building, I just want to keep him. But there is something to be said for, like, you have to get out and cross-pollinate.
Starting point is 00:45:56 You have to get out and just interact with and talk to a bunch of different coaches, for an investment schemes to stay on the cutting edge. And so for Tomlin, it's a wide net for offensive coordinator. If you end up hiring not the sexiest name, that's okay. And he'll be fine with that. He won't hire for a name. But you got to cast a wide net and really feel you have a guy who's got unique ideas and new ideas who can get you into the 21st century because you're not near it right now offensively.
Starting point is 00:46:18 Yeah. And this is what happens when you stay in one place for a long time. This isn't unique to Tomlin. You mentioned it with Belichick. I mean, absolutely has happened there. Andy Reed, when he was with the Eagles. And people forget, Juan Kennedy. He literally made his offensive line coach, the defensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:46:34 He had no pipeline to replace. By the way, Sean McDermott, who since then has been one of the better defensive coaches in the entire NFL for what the last 10, 15 years. So this goes on over and over again. It's why, who was it Bill Walsh? Or was Bill Poh was like, you know, five years is a good time to be in one place. And then you move on. Otherwise, ideas get stale.
Starting point is 00:46:55 So there's a lot of reasoning for those types of things. I'm with you. I'm not at the point where, and I understand. in my Steelers fans would be frustrated. They think the team should be better. I mean, I zoom out, and I'm kind of like, this is probably based on talent around where the team should be. You know, there's seven and seven. It hasn't been a great year.
Starting point is 00:47:12 They've probably underachieved to some degree, but not like a massive degree when you look at the quarterback situation and the quarterback injuries. But yeah, either, like, there are two paths to getting really good or to either have a quarterback who is just a difference maker and can elevate everyone around them. I don't think Kenny Pickett's that guy or to have an offensive coordinator who is really good, who can maximize the talent you have there because I do think it's a pretty good supporting cast around Kenny Pickett. So that's going to be the easier move, but we'll see who he chooses to do that with.
Starting point is 00:47:42 And we'll see how the Steelers finish this season. I mean, this has just been sort of a disastrous stretch for them, but I will never totally count them out, even though I don't think Mason Rudolph is going to make the difference. I would agree with you there. The most important thing to remember is that if the Steelers started three and six, and right now we're seven and seven, we'd all be like, freaking Tomlin.
Starting point is 00:48:01 He's such a good coach. Instead, they started six and three, and now they're seven and seven, and now it's Is Mike Tomlin on the hot seat. We are always in this field a victim of relative measures, and Tomlin is uniquely suited for bad relative measures because he constantly punches above his weight. So the moment at which his teams punch at their weight,
Starting point is 00:48:20 it feels like they're underweight. It feels like they're underachieving. We never, ever, ever, ever should have expected anything from a Kenny Pickett-led team. But we did. We got tricked. I said on this podcast, I think the Steelers are good now.
Starting point is 00:48:35 They got me. And if they got me, they got everyone. Because I knew, I knew, no, no, no, they weren't real. But they got me. And so it is the fact
Starting point is 00:48:41 that he overachieves that makes just his regular achievement feel relatively lacking. Yeah, I think that's right. All right. My third take here, Benjamin. Sticking with coaching. Kyle Shanahan should win coach of the year.
Starting point is 00:48:55 I was thinking earlier today. What's my third? third take and abate, then I'm like, this is so stupid how we do this. I mean, just every year, who's the new coach, who they snuck into the playoffs, all right, give that person the coach of the year. Go look at the coach of the year list. There are some terrible freaking coaches on that list, and there are guys like Mike Tomlin, by the way, and Kyle Shanahan, who have never won coach of the year. And so I'm trying to zoom out here and look at it. And you watch that 49ers game. It's only the Cardinals. I get it.
Starting point is 00:49:27 just look unstoppable. They have eight possessions. They score five touchdowns. It's a shock right now when they don't score a touchdown. By any, you know, meaningful metric, they are the best team in the NFL. They're first in DVOA. They're first in point differential. You know, in the last 10 years, I was
Starting point is 00:49:43 looking this up through 15 weeks. The only team that had a better offensive success rate than this year's 49ers are the 2018 Saints. Like, this is the territory they're in. You look at the top 10 best offensive performances of the season. It's five by the 49ers. five by the rest of the league.
Starting point is 00:49:59 So the exercise I like to do when I'm looking at coaching is, hey, if I swap coach X with Coach Y, what does each team look like? And I'm looking at the other contenders here. Shane Steichen has done a terrific job with the Colts. The Miko Ryan has done a terrific job with the Houston Texans. Dan Campbell, Sean McPay, you can name all these coaches. Now do an exercise and swap Shanahan with the other guys and tell me which team is better off. and I think every time you're going to come back to the team with Shanahan is better off.
Starting point is 00:50:31 And I need to say, I'm not like a historical Shanistan, Shannistan, right? That's what it's called. A Shanistan? Sure, go for it. I don't know. I don't know. I'm not someone who's like this comes on every, you know, every pot or tweet. Oh my God, college.
Starting point is 00:50:45 But, I mean, what do you? Like, we all agree that yes, the 49ers are talented, but the straw that stirs the drink is this guy just maximizing every offensive player on their roster. including their quarterback. Like that is the most valuable, pretty much the most valuable thing you can have for an NFL head coach. So they're talented, yes,
Starting point is 00:51:06 but the way he's deploying the guys, the way he's putting Brock Purdy in position to succeed. This is worthy of him winning the award in this very weird season where we thought, do we have a juggernaut? Do we not have a juggernaut? Now the 49ers have kind of separated themselves. So don't just give it to a new coach
Starting point is 00:51:23 who got his team to eight or nine wins and you say, wow, we didn't expect that. I understand that's what we've done historically. But let's reward the coach who we just ask yourself a simple question. Who's done the best job coaching their team this year? Right. I think it's Kyle Shanahan. They're the best team.
Starting point is 00:51:39 He's done the best job. So I think it's him. So there you go. That's my third thing. So this dovetails perfectly into my extra point, which is. All right, perfect. Yeah. My extra point is that the debates and tightness of both the MVP race
Starting point is 00:51:54 and the coach of the year race. race while maddening are very, very healthy and good for us as a football discussing public and a football watching public because it forces and creates conversations like the ones that are happening around Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, an MVP race, and then the ones that are happening in the coach of the year race around guys like Shane Stuyck and CJ Stroud and then Kyle Shanahan. Because you're not the first one to have the Kyle Shanahan take, right? It's been banning up by a couple people who like, all right, if Brockport is not the MVP,
Starting point is 00:52:22 then Kyle Shanahan must be coach of the year, right? because someone's got to have credit for this unbelievable offense. And it's like, yes, absolutely yes, 100% yes. And if you look at the history of coach of the year, we give Coach of the Year award out to a first year coach or a coach on a new team or the coach of a team that has a new quarterback who dramatically over a hit over their win total, the preseasoned win total.
Starting point is 00:52:47 That's who wins it. We gave it to Jason Garrett, man. The Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott, and he was better than we thought. And we said Jason Garrett's the coach of the year. I saw JTO Sullivan, the QB school, asked this week, has anybody ever had as good of stats as Brock Purdy and not won the MVP? And nothing against JT.
Starting point is 00:53:05 That sort of question drives me nuts because what it does, it very clearly indicates MVP is the award for the quarterback with the best stats. Right? Like, we have taken the awards and we've tried to just boil them down into something that's fairly formulaic. Like, all right, like, nobody thought Shane Steichen would be this good coach of the year. Why not? We could have watched him with the Eagles. He's obviously, he's great, he's been great.
Starting point is 00:53:27 But watch him with the Eagles. D'Amico Rhymes of the Texans. Why didn't we think, watch Domingo's defenses? He should have been great. Absolutely, he was great. Because these are collective votes in there are voted on by award givers and by media members, we have the opportunity to sit down and say, okay, Brock Party has unbelievable stats.
Starting point is 00:53:46 But is he really what the MVP usually looks like? Or should that be Christian McCaffrey? And sure, running backs aren't that valuable, but, this guy's probably a little different than the other one. It allows us to look at Lamar Jackson and say, all right, Lamar's counting stats, not amazing. But do you watch him against Jacksonville?
Starting point is 00:54:03 The whole offense is just Lamar. It's just Lamar running around back there. We can ask these questions and take subjective views, right? To talk about a coach of the year, Kyle Shanhan's not doing anything different than he's done the last five years. I think that's why people feel reticent to give him the award. But it's the fact that it's five. years later, Kyle's offense looks kind of, but really nothing like it used to.
Starting point is 00:54:28 They're in gun, in spread formations, not running play action, and still having loads of success. It's the fact that five years later, he is still the defining offensive line in the league that means he should probably get the award for the best coach because he probably is the best coach. We are allowed to have conversations about subjective awards, come to a democratic disagreement, cast the votes and see who gets the thing. And so, like, the idea, like, all right, like, this guy's this stats has got to get them. Oh, if the Colts make the playoffs, then Stuyken must be coach of the year. If the Texans do, then DiMiko must be the year.
Starting point is 00:55:02 I disagree with all those stipulations. I think that it's so good that MVP and coach the year this year are chaotic and everybody's angry about it and we're all just trying to talk through it. I think it makes for a smarter football-consuming public. Makes for great content, too, subtraction point taken. But I'm sure a smarter football public and we all learn more about how football works. that's sick, even though it's also intriguing. Team content. You know, I'm team content.
Starting point is 00:55:25 So, yeah, it's good for us. We can have these conversations. We'll have to go on the record eventually after week 18. That's let the whole regular season play out. We'll do our show after week 18, and we will have to go on the record with our fix. Since we don't get to vote for any, we'll just say it to each other. And that's, and I will be very clear about that this year, because last year I tweeted out my all pro ballot, and I said, this is my all pro ballot.
Starting point is 00:55:48 And a lot of people thought I had an all pro ballot. And I thought it would have been really obvious that they would never give me an all pro out. Now, no shot, Ben's getting an all pro about anytime soon. But a lot of people were like, you are ruining football because you have Mad Judin as a second team all proverse on Reddit. And I was like, guys, I made this Excel spreadsheet in 20 minutes. Like, I cannot stress you know how not real this is.
Starting point is 00:56:11 But the discourse is good. I, a lot of, like, I did a Brock Purdy MVP play sheet on Wednesday. And, like, Nynos fans hated it. And for, like, 24 hours, I did not enjoy my job. because it was just like very negative time. But when I take a step back and I realize, again, I realize, like, this is good. Like, it is cool that we have a tight race for these awards
Starting point is 00:56:30 and we can talk about it with like complex data, complex stats, complex film analysis, and like generally reach a point where we're learning a lot about football. I like the fact that we have fired up about this. It's much better than it we know what 20, 25 years ago. I mean, listen, when I was kind of, I'm so like, I couldn't even get snap counts anywhere. I had to just rewatch those Eagles games and you say,
Starting point is 00:56:50 use a spreadsheet. You were manually counting snaps? I could never. I would be, I would not be employed at this. Listen, this is a quick story time. So I was blogging about the Eagles
Starting point is 00:56:59 and I saw a writer named Mike Reese and I think then at the Boston Globe and I saw his blog and I said, wow, he has like snap counts and personal groupings in here. I wonder where he gets those. So I emailed the man and I said,
Starting point is 00:57:11 hey, where do you get those? I would love to do this. And he goes, I watched, I rewatch the games and I trip there myself. And I go,
Starting point is 00:57:16 all right, I guess that's what I'm going to be doing here. So yes, we have much bit. So shout out to Mike Reese. It was awesome. And yeah, we've come a long way.
Starting point is 00:57:24 So there you go. So when did you start blowing by the Eagles? That was probably 2008-ish. Yeah. Wasn't that long ago. You couldn't get snap counts. I tell people all the time, like the only reason I got into the field is because I started doing draft coverage.
Starting point is 00:57:41 And in the mid-2010s, there was a site called draft breakdown, which the OGs know, draft breakdown, just libraries of publicly available cut-ups, a broadcast. of college football games. So you want to watch John Ross? Here's every John Ross snap. And he's highlighted on every single one. Wow. It was extremely illegal because that's the Pact 12 network's content.
Starting point is 00:58:01 You can put it on the internet. But it was. And so there's just so much film to watch that I can actually sit down and like learn how the game worked. And so absolutely. The availability of stuff is a big, big, big deal. And so am I like, do I love getting yelled out about Brock Purdy? No.
Starting point is 00:58:16 Do I love the fact that I have all of the Brock Purdy film on demand, all of the Brock Purdy stats on demand and I can talk to the people who care deeply about Brock Party for MVP, yeah, that makes the job fun. That's right. You put it all together, you make a pick, it's okay. It's not that serious, as I always say. It's only football. It's not that big of a deal.
Starting point is 00:58:33 All right, we made it. I threw a couple interceptions in the fourth quarter. I live to tell about it. We're on to Cincinnati, on to who do the Eagles play, onto the Giants. Next week. If you are, if the listeners skipped through the intro, hate the intro for some reason, they would have no idea that you were sick. You flew
Starting point is 00:58:52 game to do quite well. Well, thank you. I do feel like I'm going to collapse right after this, but that's okay. We'll be fine. All right. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for the video production. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna. Ram Gapal. Next episode will be Nora and Stephen with dual threat. Then Solac and I will be back on Friday. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great week. We'll talk to you soon on Extra Pointing. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC.
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