The Ringer NFL Show - Elliott and Goff Get Paid, Plus: Division Winners and Super Bowl Predictions | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: September 4, 2019

Ezekiel Elliott and Jared Goff sign contracts that pace the league at their respective positions in guaranteed money (2:00). Then we preview who will win each division, share wild-card picks (10:45), give out some awards, and pick our Super Bowl winners (41:45). Host: Robert Mays, Kevin Clark Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode of the Ringer NFL show is brought to you by CBS SportsHQ. If you follow the pod, you know we love analysis and information. We don't yell at each other. We don't throw out hot takes. We don't beat the same topics into the ground. That's how CBS SportsHQ does things too. It's a sports network that streams live 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they're focused on bringing you the latest news, highlights, stats,

game previews, game reactions, fantasy advice, and gambling games. No fake debates, no politics, no made-up drama. It's just sports. or real sports fans. The best part, you get all of this for free. I don't mean a free trial or part of some special cable package. It's legitimately free for everybody.

You don't even need to log in. Just open the CBS Sports app and watch anytime, anywhere, on your phone or at home on your Apple TV, Roku, or Fire TV. It couldn't be easier. So download the CBS Sports app

and watch CBS Sports HQ today. Support for today's show comes from Collection by Michael Strayhan, available exclusively. at JCPenney. Collection by Michael Strayhan makes it easy to look good and feel your best no matter of the occasion. The collection includes suit separates, sport coats, dress shirts, neckwear, belts, accessories, basics, denim, luggage, and shoes. Big and tall and boy sizes too.

Collection by Michael Strayhan is available exclusively at JCPenney. Visit a store near you or go to JCP.com. To the ringer NFL show, I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin Clark. Kevin, how you doing, buddy? I'm stuck in a never-ending running-back value debate that will never cease. It will be on a slow boil, and then when it's not on a slow boil, will be front and center in the NFL news cycle. It is the equivalent. You ever throw on those shows in the morning,

and they're just for some reason doing LeBron v. Jordan? Oh, yeah, absolutely. That's us now, but we're just doing running backs. It's just a little peek behind the curtain. I'm writing my power rankings this week, and they are an undertaking in terms of, like, overall word count. And I fell asleep last night while watching or while writing the Panthers one and woke up this morning, just like sitting up. And I woke up to the alert on my phone that

Zeke Elliott had signed the contract and then I opened Twitter. And it was just the worst possible thing to come flying at me this morning when I was completely disoriented. I was not ready for it whatsoever. Yeah, I had to get up to do it to make a call in early morning. And I had a similar experience to you. I just inundate it. It was like I actually found out that he signed his contract because I saw 47 tweets about running backs and how much you should pay them before I saw the news. Okay, I can sort of figure out what happened here. And then value god, Howie Roseman.

Did you see this report? Yes, I did. I saw your tweet about it. Howie Roseman just waking up to find value. He calls the chargers and offers them basically a scam trade in which he offers them Jordan Howard, who they got for a mid-round pick, and the teams would swap... Mid-round pick, it was like a swap of seventh-round picks.

And then... Well, then the trade with the Chargers would be a swap of mid-round picks, and the Chargers would eat the salary. So basically, they were offering, essentially, like, the Jedevian Clowny package for Melvin Gordon. Everyone has that guy in their fantasy league where you just get offered horrendous trades just because the guy's seeing what he can get away with.

And the first thought when you see them is, God, this fucking guy. Howie Roseman is this fucking guy, and I really respect it. I love Howie Roseman. I don't have... It's incredible. Why wouldn't you?

I have detailed many times on this podcast. I don't have a team. I don't really care of rooting interest one way or the other. If I wore a fan, I would want Hallie Rosen be my GM. So like having a great pilot. I have a great pilot,

and you're like, this pilot just knows what he's doing. Yeah. I think you and I are in... We're in accordance there. All right. What, do you want a good pilot? No, that I would take Howie Roseman as my GM probably.

And we're generally pro-good pilots. Yeah, pro-good pilots is good. I like landing safely when I go from place to place. All right, so we're going to get into just our kind of down-the-middle preview here. Who's going to win each division, who we think is going to win the Super Bowl, some awards, all that stuff. Before we do that, though, is there anything you want to say about the golf and Zika extensions just because, you know, they're huge news, But for the most part, when the stuff like this happens, my response is, okay, that sounds right. I mean, I expected Zeke to be the highest paid running back.

I expected golf's contract to mirror the Wendt's contract just because that's the world we live in right now when it comes to how NFL players are paid. So it goes back to something I remember Thomas Mitrov saying to me in July, which was they, there were people, I don't know if you meant media or other people kind of around football who were like, you get Matt Ryan for 29 and a quarter. And he said, you know what? what are we doing here? Because he's going to get 30. He's going to get 30. And then the next thing is going to be the next quarterback who'll get 32. The next quarterback at 33, 34, 35. So I get the short contract thing. One of the things I think is interesting is it's a four-year deal heavily guaranteed. When I did my, I did a Kirk Cousin story last year. And one of the things that both he and his agent, a couple people around the Vikings had said is that the lesson is not going to fully guaranteed contract or whatever, reach for agency, even though obviously, those are two very big parts of the story. The less is to do a three-year deal. And if you want huge guarantees, go short. Short deals can be your friend.

Whether that's, and look, Kirk Cousins really took advantage of the franchise tag but make these sort of one-year deals, but that's not ideal, especially for a non-quarterback. But if you're a quarterback and you sign three, four-year deals, you will be richly rewarded because the market keeps resetting itself over and over and over again. So I like that Jared Gough did this. I like that he bet on himself.

He's going to have, look, even if the bottom falls out from Jared Gough, he's still going to get big money. I mean, Sam Bradford made $10 million last year. That, I mean, that's just ridiculous. Yeah, it's a four-year extension, but it's, I mean, in reality, he's under team control for the next six years. Right. But what I'm saying is that he's taking essentially a four-year mega-deal, right? Whereas some guys might go five, some guys have gone six in the past.

and I understand where both sides are coming from. I think it's a total win for probably both sides. Yeah, and this was always going to happen. And I know we've had the discussion in the past and other people have of, well, you know, what could Sean McVe do with another quarterback? And what would Jared Gough look like without Sean McVeigh? Yeah. Guess what?

We don't have to know. And the Rams don't have to know. This is a bird in the hand. We know what we're getting sort of thing with the Rams. And I wrote a big story about it a couple weeks ago about why teams do this uncertainty, job security, familiarity, all of those things hold weight when it comes to these decisions. I have a pretty good feeling that this contract was inevitable after the first season that Jared Goff had with Sean McVeigh. I think when that year happened, Sean McVeigh pretty

much came to the conclusion that this is the guy he wanted. And that's from a one, my offense can function perspective, two, I like spending time with a guy every day. And again, these seem like silly things, but they actually do hold weight when it comes to these really impactful decisions. I mean, this was inevitability for however much we want to create thought experiments around it. Yep, I'm with you. And I think Jared Goff understands that he needed to stay there. I mean, it was funny. I was talking to somebody last night. Why would you want to be anywhere else? Well, he gets to be the real person in the thought experiment, which is like, you know, I ran a story today and Daniel Lovsky and said, well, what would Matthew Stafford look if he had Sean McBae?

Well, Jared Goff gets to be the guy who gets Sean McVey. So don't leave. No leaving. Yeah. I mean, he gets to live in Los Angeles. He gets to make $110 million. And he gets to work with one of the best offensive coaches in football. So let's get to the Zeech contract because the six-year deal when it comes to Zique,

I feel like this is one of those things where we still overreact to contract numbers when they come out, especially for non-quarterbacks. Yeah. The Cowboys always do six-year deals. Or longer. year deals are what the Cowboys, that's their standard operating procedure. They're going to be like one of these hockey teams that signs guys to 15 year deals. Well, the advantage of doing a six year deal, which is the reason that the Cowboys have done it so much in the past.

And especially now when they know they're going to be up against the cap as they resign all these people is that with a six year deal, you can convert signing bonus. You can convert based salary into signing bonus and pro rated over the length of a contract. And then they've done that so many times at Tyron Smith. That's the benefit of a six year deal is that it creates. financial flexibility for you later on. So that's what they're doing. They're trying to make sure they have flexibility moving forward. And some teams aren't willing to do that.

But the Cowboys are because they don't care about shelling out the cash earlier than they need to because they're the Cowboys. They have the cash on hand. So, I mean, it was not surprising to me that it was six years because this is always what the Cowboys have done because it's how they figure out and how they think about themselves financially. Also, they just love paying people. Yes.

And they do. And I mean, that is absolutely one of the hallmarks of the franchise under Jerry Jones. And I do think that it has some. I mean, it's is an overpay 100%. But again, I felt like this was an inevitability. We, I don't want to sit here and have another debate about running back value on this podcast. It's just, it's not worth it.

We already know the answers to all this stuff. But again, teams do things for other reasons besides nickel and diming every single thing they can out of certain positions. I was thinking about the motivation for this stuff. I was thinking of this this morning. And I'm extremely analytically inclined. I look at all the data and all the numbers, and I consider myself progressive football observer.

But essentially the argument right now is that nothing matters except quarterbacks, but also we shouldn't pay quarterbacks. We should just have them on their rookie deals forever. Like everyone should make like $400,000 in perpetuity. I'm starting to get in with everything. I really am. It's end? No, I don't know.

I'm starting to get to a point where it's just like this stuff is getting a little bit bothersome. I don't want to take a Twitter break because that's the first step towards announcing that you've taken a Twitter break which is the most obnoxious thing in the world. So I'm going to maybe just like spend a day off of Twitter and reset but not announce it.

Yeah, that's probably... I'm definitely not announcing what I'm doing right now because that would be announcing a Twitter break. All right. Let's get to our actual preview here. Here's what we're going to do. We're going to go division by division. We're going to pick a winner.

And then after that, I think we should do the awards And then following that, let's talk about who we think is going to the Super Bowl. Okay? So let's start with the NFC North because that's where I always start. Who is your NFC North winner? Let's pull up the old document here. Minnesota Vikings.

Okay. I could understand any of three answers in this scenario. Did you pick the Packers? I did pick the Packers. Is this a reverse jinx for you? It's not not a reverse jinks. If you don't think I put the Packers one spot higher than the Bears in my power rankings for a reason, then I'm not really sure what to tell you.

the defense will be good. The Packers' defense. Sorry, the Packers' defense. The Packers' defense. But walk me through your Vikings reasoning, because I understand that. They were 12th in my rankings. It's not as if they were far off from the Bears and the Packers. I think the Vikings are in a group of four, five, six teams that they only need a couple of breaks here and there. I believe in their roster talent still. I think that when we've talked about in this podcast, Anthony Bar, getting him back is one of the most unharrowded moves of the offseason. I still, I I am a huge fan of 1 through 47 having a deep roster.

That's why I'm picking the Eagles to win the Super Bowl. That's why I just enjoy the way that they position themselves. They've got, you know, maybe down the road they'll have some cat problems. We've certainly gone through that. You've written about that, just how they were able to build that team. They'll be using more play action this year, as again, you've written about. I think Kevin Soponsky's and Gary Kubiak, that system is going to only help Kirk Cousins. So I think that the type of team

that only needs three, four, five things to break right. And I see them breaking right this year, whereas they did not last year. I tend to agree with you on a lot of those points. So let me play devil's advocate a little bit with the Vikings. One, as much as we want to have them be this play action analytically driven team, every single key decision maker in that franchise,

including the general manager and the head coach, have come out publicly and said that they want to be a team that runs the ball often. It doesn't matter how much your quarterback or your offensive coordinator buy into the analytics department if your head coach is going to go nuts if you don't run the ball 40 times a game for no reason. Okay. Two, I think the defense still has a lot of the same names that we're used to. But I also can see them taking a slight drop off compared to the last couple of seasons. I think they were second and fourth in defensive DVOA over the last two years.

Barr is a good player when he's right, but he's had his issues in coverage as of late, and so has Eric Kendricks. If you talk to people there, there's a freak out going on right now about the cornerback depth, which seems insane when it comes to the Vikings, but I think Xavier Rhodes was worse last season

than he was the year before, and if he, whether that's injury, whatever, if he did take a slight fall, and they don't have other guys on that team that can pick up for it in the secondary, whether that's Anthony Harris taking a, step back in his first full year as a starter, whether that's the cornerback depth outside of Xavier Rhodes, whether that's Mike Hughes coming back from injury, whether that's Trey Wayne's

being ineffective. I just think that there's reason to believe, and also, if this defense gets hurt, they can't afford that. They could in years past. There is not the depth that there's been before because so many guys have gotten paid. We see that all over the league. So I can build a case for how the defense can be worse. I tend to think they'll be fine because I have a ton of faith in Zimmer, and I do think they still have a lot of talent. Sure. So are you, you see the Bears is better than the Vikings. You see a Packers, Bears, Vikings.

It's all so jumbled up, man. I mean, I could see it going so many different ways. I also think the Vikings' offense will be better. I feel like their offensive line is considerably more talented. I mean, bringing Bradbury in there. I think Josh Klein is a solid player. You assume O'Neill gets better at right tackle in year two. I think the system really does lend well to Cousins.

I think he's going to have a, a really nice season. But I do think that if the defense take a step back, everything else, I feel like those three are really jumbled up. I mean, the Bears, again, I wrote about this today. It all comes down to Trubisky. I think the defense will still be excellent. I mean, they have so much talent.

And I think that they have, you know, really no apparent weaknesses. The two guys, they lost, they replaced pretty much instantly in free agency. The offense returns everyone. And I also think the Bears' offense, the guys, there are tiny little incremental improvements they can make outside of the quarterback that I think are important. You know, James Daniels moving to center and white hair moving to guard. I think that's really nice for their offensive line. I think they'll be better if they stay healthy.

I think Alan Robinson's going to be a monster this year. Year 2 in the system coming back from an ACL, Montgomery is a huge upgrade over Howard. It also makes them way less predictable. I mean, that team is so stacked outside of the quarterback. If he can even almost figure it out, I think they're going to be super dangerous. That being said, if I'm making a lot of it. a bet in this division it's going to be on Aaron Rogers still. And that's why I'm going with the Packers. Okay. I think I have Packers is a wide card team. Yeah. I mean, I think we're both

high on them. I like the defense. You know, I have questions about how it's all going to work out. There's Adairius Smith is a much better interior rusher than an outside rusher. So if they do move him inside, is Rishon Gary, a guy that can step in, stuff like that. But I think for the most part, they've figured this out. I mean, they have two new starting safeties. I think I, Eric Alexander is a star. And I do think they're going to figure it out with that scheme offensively. I have a ton of faith in that partnership that they have. And we've talked about this forever and how that may be one of the defining

storylines of the season. And I think it works out well for them. Agree. All right. Next. NFC East. I think this is a short conversation. Giants.

We both think the Eagles are the best team in the NFC. I mean, I don't know how you could make an argument for any other roster. And it's not as if there's a lot of projection. when it comes to them schematically. I mean, we've seen what this team can be with this coaching staff, and the answer is a Super Bowl winner. Best roster talent in the NFL, presumably healthy Carson Wentz, elite front office.

There's not much more to say about it. I just love their contingency plans. And it's almost like a fantasy team that's so stacked that the moves you make are just to make sure that if someone gets hurt, it doesn't torpedo your season. Like, Andre Dillard is the handcuffed to their offense. just in case one of their tackles gets hurt. It's just a luxury that so few teams in the NFL could possibly have.

And then I think if you look at their skill position talent, I mean, the idea that you could just drop Deshaun Jackson in there with Alshan Jeffrey, with J.J.R. Saga Whiteside, those two tight ends. Miles Sanders is the best running back on that team now. I just, they are so freaking loaded, man. Until the Chargers panic and trade Melvin Gordon, give the Brock Osweiler a deal. Send Melvin Gordon and a two for a second.

seventh in Jordan Howard. All right, NFC West. I have the Rams. I assume you do. Yeah, I do, I do too. Are you worried about them at all? Yeah, I didn't mean a- You're building a case against them.

I did mean a Kimes podcast yesterday, and I asked her if, you know, she was obviously around it, if there was any chance of implosion there. And her, I mean, it basically came down to, you know, if they get bad luck on injuries, which I tend to think is the only way. She was actually high on Blake Bortles as a backup situation. which was quite strange, but that's neither here nor there. That's neither hair nor there. But, yeah, I think they're pretty much dialed.

They've got a ton of talent. They have a system where, you know, anybody can look like what Jared Gough looks like, but Jared Gough can also like Jared Gough can look like. So I'm not too worried about them. Double-digit wins should be fairly easy for them. Yeah, I tend to agree. I think that, you know, again, you're looking at contingency plans. I don't know what would have to go wrong for them to totally,

implode. But their offensive line depth, especially on the interior, is not what it was because now Brian Allen and Joe Nobom are starters. You know, it's little stuff like that. But that stuff can matter. You know, when you have just little tiny decreases in town and really important position, I mean, that stuff really does come to fruition when you're supposed to be one of the best teams in the league.

So I think getting weddell for them is really nice. I think it's a really cheap way to kind of stem the loss of Lamarcus Joyner. They have a little bit less flexibility in the secondary. with Joyner gone. You know, if Roby Coleman were to get hurt, for example, things like that, I think that they would be a little bit of a bind. But this team is a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. It's mostly the roster that we saw go to the Super Bowl last year.

And I do have a ton of faith in McVeigh. I mean, I still do think that he's one of the best coaches in the league. I think their offense is going to look a lot different than it did last year. Not a lot different. But I think we're going to see some wrinkles that we did not see a year ago because they understand they have to adapt a little bit to stay ahead of the curve. So my general thought is that McVeigh, for all the system talk or, you know, Offensive Revolution talk, one of the things about McVeigh that everybody overlooks is that he's actually a great leadership coach.

Yes. And that's one of the things I think gets lost in this whole, you know, looking at the system he runs. And he runs a good system. But he is the type of guy who's going to not let a team get off the rails, I think. I think that's an important thing if they start to go in a bad direction. I think the floor on the Rams is currently constructed is quite high. Yes. And I do think that they've really constructed a culture there that has put them in position to succeed.

I mean, the fact that they could get Clay Matthews and Eric Wedd for the prices they did, I don't have a ton of faith in Clay Matthews at this point in his career. But I do think that, you know, with McVeigh there and just with the feeling in that building and kind of what's being said around the league about that situation, they're in a really good spot. both this year and moving forward. All right. NFC South. Falcons.

Okay. All right. I can see it. All right. Walk me through it. Yeah. I mean, again, this is the type of team.

Their offense was for the positions they were put in fairly efficient. Bad... It was one of the top ten offenses in football. Bad offensive line. Bad offensive line. The spine of the defense was ripped out almost immediately. they address both of those

and I think that that's they get healthy they get a couple of things to go right I am intrigued to see how the Dan Quinn defensive coordinator thing goes but I think they are going to be much better

than they were last year I think that there's a bit of a jumble it's kind of like what we talked about with the NFC North where I think that there's really three teams and in week 16 we probably won't know who's going to win and then in week 17

and a little shake out. But I think that it's just a couple of breaks here and there, and I like the Falcons in that spot. My concern there, and I think everything you said is correct, the offense should be really good again. I have two things that kind of worry me. One, I don't know how good of an offensive coordinator, Dirk Cutter is.

And if they kind of follow the plan that the Falcons had last year in 2016, which is a lot of play action, you know, similar concepts, all of that. And there's some continuity there. I have a lot of faith in their ability to succeed. Like you said, they address their biggest weakness by far, which was the offensive line. I mean, not only do they have two new starters on the right side, most likely if McGarry ends up being the right tackle.

But now you have depth with Carpenter, Jamon Brown being that other guard spot. So you can kind of withstand some injuries that you could not last year. But by doing that, they really left their defense unaddressed. I mean, there's nobody on that unit that's new. So you can easily say.

I think that, you know, I think that getting healthy is new. Yes, it is. But even if they're healthy, we've already seen this group of players, and it's never been better than like a top 24 unit. So even if they're not the worst defense in the league. If they're the 20th best defense and the fifth best offense, they win the division, right? I don't know if that's necessarily true.

I mean, they're going to be in that. They're going to be in that jumble. Yes. They're going to be really good if that's the disdive. distribution, but I do think this division is so good that that defense might not be good enough to get them where they want to go. I pick the Panthers. And this is more a statement thing than anything else. I don't dislike the Saints. The Saints are higher in my rankings than the Panthers are. I just think that at this time of year, sometimes you have to do certain things to let people know you're high on teams that other people might not be. And that's how I sit with the Panthers. I just think that their offense last year was excellent for the first half of the season before Cam got hurt. If he's healthy, their offensive line is significantly better in terms of personnel with Paradise and Williams in the mix now. And maybe Greg Little as insurance, let's say somebody goes down, he has to play guard, whatever. I love the young receivers.

I think McAfrey is a superstar. Olson got the surgery last off season where he didn't the year before. I think he's going to be healthier and more explosive. I love what North Turner's done with that scheme. And I think that they did an excellent job of adding pieces to that defense. Brian Burns to me is going to be a monster. I'm with you on that one. I am looking forward to the Christian McCaffrey cycle

where he kicks out for another running back value debate. The other thing that when I was kind of, again, going through all these teams, one of the things about Carolina that I liked is that I feel like the number one goal with your secondary at this point is to build a group that's flexible and deep. How many answers to how many different questions do you have?

And now with adding Tray Boston, they have Rishon Golden back there. They have Ross Cockrell, who's played a lot of safety for them in certain packages, and is just a solid player. He was hurt last year. They have Boston. I think that Dante Jackson get a lot better. You have Bradbury on the other side. We'll see what happens and who ends up being that slot corner for the entire season.

But again, I think they're deep. And when you look at what they have on the defensive front now, especially on the interior, I just think that that was the number one issue they had last year, is past rush, and I think that's going to be a lot better. This team, I just think, is really underrated when it comes to overall roster talent. Yeah, there's going to be a jumble. Like in the north, it's possible we end up with some combination. We're not quite on right now.

All right. Who's your first block our team? Saints. So you get to your take. I don't have them just because I... You don't have them in the playoffs. You don't have them in the playoffs. I don't have the Saints in the playoffs.

And the reason I don't have the Saints in the playoffs. And the reason I don't have the Saints in the playoffs is... Because you hate them and it's personal. I just think that the NFC is so stacked. And two, at the top, it's so close with all of these teams. And what happened last year late in the season worries me with Breeze. I know he was good in the playoff game. And maybe we should overlook what happened down the struts just because if you're going to be the best in the last season of the game,

your arm's probably not dead. But the guy's 40 years old. We've seen a little bit of a drop off when it comes to his home road splits. We're splitting hairs. but I think that that's why they're the odd team out, or they're on the outside looking at it. So the age thing is why it worries you more than, say, some of Jared Goff struggles in the second half of the season.

Yeah, I just think that there's a chance Breeze really falls off a cliff where there's not with golf necessarily. Yeah, listen, I see it. I have, I no longer short, I did this last year, I no longer short quarterbacks based on age because I just have no idea what the hell is going on. And these guys might play 20. So I'm picking the Saints.

Again, I believe in their talent. I think Alvin Kamar is one of the most dynamic guys in football. Obviously, they've got Michael Thomas. I think that there's some connections there. I mean, they completed like 85% of their passes to Michael Thomas last year. At some point, it becomes a reality that there's just very, very few things more efficient than a Drew Breweries Michael Thomas pass. I don't think that's going to fall off that much from one year to the next.

No, it probably isn't. And I also think that with Jared Cook, there, he could be their number two receiver. I mean, that kind of Kamara Cook combination could really give them a dynamic that they didn't have last season when they were kind of searching for that number two guy. And I love the fact that they managed to find Eric McCoy in the second round and retool on the fly when, what's his name when their center retired? Yeah.

I mean, I just think that that's such an amazing, they've done a really, really good job of making sure they've filled their holes in real time and not had any weaknesses going forward to make the most of Breezes last couple years. And McCoy is just the latest example of that. Give me your wild card, James. I have the Bears and the Cowboys. Okay. I have faith in the Bears' offense moving.

By the way, the Packers are my second team. Just everybody knows. Okay. So you have the backwards. I have the Bears and the Cowboys. And again, I think the Bears, I completely understand the Fangio to Pagano downgrade. I'm concerned about it.

I really am. But even if they fall from 1 to 5, 6, 7 in defensive efficiency, I have faith in this offense to get better. I think Nagy's a fantastic coach. I love the personnel. And he said to me this offseason, we were talking about Trubisky. I mentioned to him that,

well, yeah, I'm a homestead an entire year to sit in that system before we had to play. And he learned from a legitimate genius in Alex Smith. And when he said to me was, it's not just that. Legitimate genius. Oh, Alex Smith is one of the smartest people in professional football, easily.

Okay. Legitimate genius. Okay. In terms of football, absolutely he is. I mean, that guy is like, he's right up there with everybody. To learn from him is an unbelievable education as a rookie. And the Bears didn't have that, not only on Trubisky's side, but with the entire offense. I think in year two, to learn a very dense system, again, with Robinson getting healthy, all

that stuff, I think they have a chance to take a step forward. And maybe I'm convincing myself of that because I wanted to be true, but that's where I am. With Dallas, I legitimately believe that their offense last year, schematically is what held them back. I think they have enough talent on that side of the ball to be really good. I think we can see a different version of Dak Prescott with more pre-snap motion, with more play action, all of that stuff with Kellan Moore calling the shots. And if that's the case, I think their defense is going to be good enough to sustain them.

Yeah, I think they're going to be right there in that next, but I think that there's, I think there are better teams than they are, they are. I think there are better coached teams than Dallas has been in the past. but if they really do give the keys to Kellyn Moore and that's an offense that starts helping its quarterback actively in the way that the best offenses in the NFL do, I think they can get really scary in a hurry. I think they will benefit from the fact that the Giants

and the Redskins are probably not very good this year. I think two of the worst five teams in the NFL, in my opinion. Hmm. Possibly. I think the Giants might be okay, like six wins, not like two wins. I think Eli remains. remains a problem.

And I don't think their defense has much talent. Okay. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break. Today's episode is brought to you by floor and decor. Don't miss out. Floor and decor is the only one-stop flooring shop

that keeps general contractors, flooring specialists, and renovation experts ahead of the game. Thanks to their fully stocked warehouse of hard surface flooring, no job is too big. Job lock quantities of tile wood and stone are in stock and available

for convenient worksite delivery. Also, their dedicated Pro Services team is here to help make it easy for you to run your business, offering everything from 14-day product storage to financing solutions to express pickup. Sign up for ProPremure rewards, and you'll automatically rack up points that you can exchange for prizes. Plus, you'll have access to over 15 discounted services to help you grow your business. Explore your local floor and decor and discover how quality flooring products every day

low prices can completely change your game. Visit floorandecore.com today to locate the floor and decor nearest you and score savings and service, you can't find anywhere else. That's floor and decor.com. Let's move to the AFC. AFC North. It's yours. I have the Browns.

Browns are a wildcard team for me. I have the Browns win the division. I'm all aboard the hype train, man. I just, I think their defense is stacked. I'm with you. I feel like that's the thing that people are overlooking here. Offensive line doesn't worry you? Offensive line worries me.

If we're building a case against them, that is 100% where it starts. I mean, it's not only the fact that their left tackle with somebody who's kicked around the league, but they have weaknesses elsewhere. You know, Corbett losing that right guard job, that concerns me. They really, after trading Zitler, only have two above-average starters and one high-quality starter. So that's absolutely the issue, but I do think that, especially with the way Mayfield

plays, he can mitigate that. He gets rid of the ball quickly, and when he does extend plays, I think he understands his escape routes and how to do it outside the pocket well enough to not put his linemen in a bind. You know, we've seen really good quarterbacks survive with subpar offensive lines. And my optimism when it comes to the Browns is completely tied up in Mayfield going from an exciting, fun guy to one of the truly great quarterbacks in the NFL. I think that's possible. At the end of 2019, where we rank Baker Mayfield among quarterbacks?

I think he could be like in the top seven. Top seven. Do you want to do it very quickly? Like, who would it be? Yeah, Mahomes. Mahomes, Brady, Rogers, Breeze. Phil Rivers? Russell Wilson would probably be in the conversation to me.

Rothesburg would probably be right there. Russell Wilson would probably be right there. So I guess in order to do that, one of those older guys would have to fall out, right? Yeah, or he just balls out, and he's just like third behind Mahomes and Brady. There's a gap between Mahomes and Brady and everybody else. Yeah, no, I just think that there's a gap there.

I think Breeze is still there. There's a lot of quarterbacks who can, I think Breeze and Rogers are still there. I really do. Statistically, Breeze certainly is. Oh, I just think in terms of overall play, Breeze is still there. I'm really intrigued to see Rogers. Rogers in this offense will be interesting to see.

I can't stop believing in Rogers until I have undying evidence that it's time. I mean, I'm not going to be the first person to throw dirt on Aaron Rogers. That's not going to be a move I make because that's going to come back to haunt me in a very bad way. Okay. Okay. So do you have the Steelers in the playoffs? Yes, I do. I have them as a wild card team.

We just flipped them. Yeah, in my power rankings, the Steelers are directly behind the Browns. I mean, I just think that the Steelers are a really promising team. What do you like about the Steelers? Do you think their offense just doesn't miss a beat without Antonio? I don't think their offense doesn't miss a beat, but I still think that Ralthusberger has a lot of talent. I think that Devin Bush will give them some athleticism. I still believe in the front seven.

Obviously, there's some concern about their cornerbacks. But, like, every team has a whole. Every single team has a hold. And I think the Steelers just have enough pluses to overcome their minuses. I, again, believe in their 1 through 47. Yeah, I think that that's a good way to look at it. But even if you look at the hole with them being the secondary, and they signed Stephen Nelson in Free Agency,

he's not a star, but he's a functional piece. So now you have a cornerback group of Hayden, Stephen Nelson, and Mike Hilton, who I think is criminally underrated. and if Edmonds can get better in year two on the back end, and he has a ton of talent, you're starting to look at a defense that doesn't really have any holes now that Devin Bush is there. And I think that's when they get truly scary

because I don't know if the offense will be quite as good without Brown, but I do feel like they have the pieces to make sure that they're still a top 10 unit. So when you combine those two things, there's no reason to think that they can't challenge either of the top two teams in the AFC. Yep. And then, I mean, I think, James Connor's pretty good.

And I also think that, you know, look, I don't know. I've never seen Freddie Kitchens as a head coach. I believe in the guy. We've both talked to him this summer. I like him a lot, but I'm not, it's really hard for me to take a guy who's never been head coach for and say this guy's going to win a pretty good division right off the bat. I need to be, I don't want to sound like kind of like a,

I don't want to go full pregame show here, but like I kind of need to see it. It's a reasonable question. I mean, I don't blame you for things. thinking that. And if I'm being completely honest here, part of the reason I'm doing this is it's fun. I mean, it's just fun to root for teams that we're really excited about and fun

to have some just emotional stock in them. And that's where I am with the Browns. At this point, it's like, fuck it. I just want this team to be good and I want to enjoy watching them. I might as well just put my full-throated support behind it. Okay. Are we having fun picking the Browns?

I'm having a really good time picking the Browns. I'm having a fantastic. time. All right. AFC East Patriots, not much else to say. I mean, I think we both,

you don't have the bills as a wildcard team, do you? No. No. But I think we're both encouraged by the direction the bills are going.

I feel like there's still a year away and there's a lot of Josh Allen kind of concerns there. When it comes to the Jets, I just think they have too many holes. They're exciting when it comes, you know, there are a lot of players in that team I like.

Defensively, I think there's still sort of a mess, you know, a corner. That's the number one issue. They still don't have any edge rushers. And, I mean,

they have not nearly the talent on defense that the Browns had last year, and Greg Williams still held that unit back. On offense, the offensive line is still a really big concern. Also, are you doing the Jets? Yeah. In relation to Freddie Kitchens, I've seen Adam Gase coach, and I'll leave it a thing. Yeah, and I think he, I am excited about Sam Darnels. I think Sam Darnold can be really good.

I don't know if Adam Gase is the dude to make Sam Darnold really good. Agree. You know what it would have helped if the Jets had Joe Douglas in place for free agency in the draft. I mean, it's so brutal. The polite thing and just everything else is just like, oh, my God. I do like their past catching group. I think that they have complimentary skill sets. You know, Anuwa is the possession guy, Crowder in the slot, Herndon stretching the seam,

and then Anderson being that deep threat. That's a fun group to me, especially when you throw Bell into the mix. But again, I don't know if Adam Gase is the right person to get the most out of it. All right? All right. Yeah. I mean, they're the best team of the AFC to me. AFC South.

I have the Texans. Yeah, me too. I feel bad about that. Yeah, I mean, but there aren't really any other options. I don't feel good about the Jags. I think their defense takes a step back. I don't know what Foles is going to be for an entire season. I think the Colts could still win the division.

So we will get to that in two seconds here. Wildcar teams. We talked about the Steelers. The other wildcard team in the AFC. I have the Browns and the Ravens. So I was considering the Ravens. Because, but that would be three teams from the same division, which is difficult. Very difficult.

Because it's hard to get that many wins. I'll tell you what, it helps when the fourth theme is the Bengals. It certainly does. I would typically just pencil the Chargers in there. And I do think the Chargers still have a lot of talent. I'm really worried about the Chargers' offensive line, man. Well, I'm worried about, like, everything but Philip Rivers at this point. I mean, Derwin James is out.

The offensive line. They're already set up to fail. They're just not going to have Melvin Gordon. He's going to be playing for the, Eagles when they send Melvin Gordon in a first round pick for a I think losing Melvin Gordon is not nearly as worrisome to me as the state of their offensive line on losing German James those are the most important things and I'm looking at just reasons to be pessimistic about that so I have the charges with a

question mark next to it I think the Ravens could absolutely do it I feel like the Colts are probably in that mix as well but I mean I think Frank Drake might be an awesome coach I think he might too I that the way they've constructed that offense both with the line, the weapons, how open guys are in that scheme. I 100% think the Colts could win 10 games if things break right for them. That would not surprise me. Yeah, I'm picking the Ravens, but I could see the Colts. I could see the Colts.

I'm concerned about Lamar Jackson a little bit. I mean, I don't think that's out of line. I also think that when you look at Baltimore's Front Seven, they have no talent. I mean, there is a complete lack of proven guys in the Front Seven. And Hartwell was asked about that today, and he says he's feeling good about it. it. Feeling good. He says everybody else.

Who saw that? A Harbaugh? John Harba. I mean, they've done such a good job of just conjuring productive players in that area of their defense. Martindale's a good DC. He absolutely is. And they do a great. The thing about that is, and I feel like he's the perfect person for this with their talent

because they brought a ton of heat last year. They're going to need to do that again this year. And you have the secondary talent to make that possible. So I do think the pieces are there for them to be better than people expect. But I don't think they'll be, you know, the third best team in the league by DVOA like they were last season. So if the offense doesn't take a step forward, it's going to be harder for them to win double-digit games.

Yeah, I'm with you. I definitely think that there's kind of a 1A and 1B and with that six playoff spot. I think they're concerns, but I'm going with the Ravens. Yeah, the AFC is so weak. I just kind of wish we could put one of the teams that doesn't make it in the NFC into that spot

and have it be a little bit more interesting. We just need to go full college and just start assigning, assigning bowls. We need a committee. All right. Before we move on, let's take one more quick break. I've ever had to miss a football game because you couldn't get somewhere to watch it? I know that's a problem for me all of the time.

You're trying to watch on your phone, you're trying to just catch it at a sports bar somewhere out of the corner of your eye. It's never easy, though. That never has to happen again, though, with Tune-in. You're all-in-one audio app for live sports, news, music, and podcast. With Tune-in premium, you can listen to live and on-demand coverage of every single game of the NFL season. And that's just the beginning. Tune-in also gives you access to every live MLB, NBA, and NHL game, not to mention all your favorite college football teams.

Tune-in doesn't just have sports either. You can also get 24-hour news from all the major outlets, over 100 exclusive music channels, and all your top podcasts, including the Ringer NFL show and all the shows on the Ringer podcast network. For a limited time, go to Tunein.com slash NFL to get Tunein premium for 50% off. That's tune-in.com slash NFL.

Take live sports, music, news, and podcasts wherever you go with Tune In. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. We need a game plan for protection. State Farm agents are here to help. Personalized service, agents are available to talk in person, overtext through the State Farm app. So go with the one with coverage and agents you can count on. Find an agent in your neighborhood today.

Offensive rookie of the year, who you got? Offensive rookie of the year, Hardman from Kansas City. I like them. Really? I think that, I think that, there's going to be a massive offensive production

performance from McKinsey Chiefs in general. I think everybody's going to eat. By the way, this was made before Shady McCoy was signed, I don't know if it's necessarily going to change anything. This is a guy who runs a 4-3. I think that

Brett Veach was really excited about him. I think that it's not going to take a lot for the offensive. You picked Josh Jacobs, right? I did pick Josh Jacobs. I don't think it's, I don't think it's going to take a lot to an offensive rookie of the year this year. And I think that he's going to have some big primetime games and he'll get enough

yardage to where we'll be talking about him. The volume to me is the concern. I think that McCall... I think that... I think that the volume, I think in general, there's just going to be so much yardage to go around. Does that make sense? Yeah, but I mean, there's so...

There are only so many targets, man. If Watkins stays healthy, I could see McCollman having a season where he catches 25 passes and seven of them are touchdowns. And I still think that would make it difficult to win offensive rookie of the year. I mean, that's essentially what Calvin Ridley did last season. I think with Jacobs, he's just going to have so much volume that if he ends up rushing for

1100 yards on 3.8 yards of carry and adds 40 catches in the passing game, they're going to give it to him. Obviously, Kyler Murray is in this discussion as well. I feel like Jacobs is a safer bet. A slightly rough go of it. Yes. I think they could have some fits and starts, and that's why I wouldn't pick him. They don't have that much talent.

even if you believe in the experiment, I just think Jacobs is the safer pick. Defensively, I'm assuming we have the same guy. Who do you have? Devin Bush. Oh, no, I had Josh Allen. Really? Yeah.

All right. These are all going to be so, very rarely, why do you have Devin Bush? I love Devin Bush, but I just think that there's going to be so many headlines. I agree, but Josh Allen looked like a complete beast in some of those plays in the preseason. I could see him showing out. But he's not even going to start. No, I know, man.

I think that I like Devin Bush a lot. It was when I was a minute's podcast the other day, she said that someone, someone, one of the stewarders compared him to Bobby Wagner at one point. I think he's really good, but I think that Josh Allen will, will show up this year.

I think Devin Bush is just going to have such a role in that defense. And if they're a playoff team, we're going to have a lot of that, you know, the storyline about how he kind of reinvigorated them and filled the role that Shazir used to have, all that stuff. I just think that there's going to be so much focus on him that if he has the impact he can have,

that there's going to be way more attention paid to him than any other defensive rookie. All right, defensive player of the year. We have the same guy, Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett. Two reasons. One, I think the Miles Garrett is unbelievably talented. And two, I think that sack totals are often a product of how your offense plays as teams are trying to catch up. I think the Browns are going to have one of the best four or five offenses in the NFL and be playing with a lot of leads. And I think that means Miles Garrett is going to eat.

Agree. I think they're going to, again, the big game thing is, really important. This is a slightly narrative award. It's not like Coach of the Year narrative, but it's close. Coach of the year. Freddy Kitchens. I mean, if the Browns make the playoffs, and this is the guy that

reinvigorated the Browns, I think that that's kind of a given. Who is yours? Frank Craig. Oh, that's a good one, too. Again, it's a narrative award. If Frank Reich wins nine games, people are going to be like, what a job. And I actually think that they have so much roster talent, they definitely should win nine games.

So, yeah. God, the battle with the narratives. If the Colts win nine games and the Browns make the playoffs, who wins out? I actually didn't the Browns. Yeah, I think so, too. That's why I pick Catchers. Come back, play the year? Oh, I didn't pick a comeback player of the year.

Uh-oh. It was good. Who was yours? Earl Thomas. Yeah, that was mine too. I think that's the one I submitted to our site-wide picks last week. So I'm just going to roll with that. I think he's going to be awesome.

I think that secondary is going to be great. I'm excited to watch them play. Are you going off a list that's not the things you submitted? No, I built a different list like in the last half hours. I forgot that I submitted those. It's all the same. You just have different picks? It's all the same.

It's all the same ones so far. The only one I didn't remember was comeback player of the year. Oh, okay. So that was, I remember all the other ones. But you did pick, in the picks you will have, you will have Earl Thomas on the website. I'm almost certain that I did. Yes.

I also comeback player of the year is whatever. Okay, MVP. I love comeback player of the year. Well, Chad Pennington for you. Hey, is offensive player of the year an MVP same person for you? No. I mean, I think offensive player of the year could be,

I don't remember who I picked. I didn't write down the awards I didn't care about. It was last year. So Mahomes won both last year. Yeah, I think it's difficult to win both. I think you have to have a transcendence season. I think that Patrick Mahomes is still playing football. So, like, Cam Newton did it.

Matt Ryan did it. Mahomes did it. I think Mahomes will do it again. Oh, I do not think he will be in the MVP this year. Okay. Who's going to win the MVP? I have Carson once because I think that the Eagles are going to go like 15 into one. Okay. The MVP is often a product of how good your team plays.

I agree, but I also think that... And it's also people get fatigued. The guy, the same guy rarely wins it twice in a row. Yeah, very rarely. So I read this in the blurb. I think that at some point the numbers, I think Mojom's numbers might be just so much better than everybody else is that they have to give it to him. Yeah, but if he throws like 38 times, touchdown passes and Wenz throws 33.

I don't think it's... I don't think it's that. I don't think it's going to be 33. I think it's going to be like above 40. You're bullish on the Mahomes non-touchdown regression thing, which I appreciate. Yeah, I am. I think Patrick Mahomes is really good. I think that the offense is really good.

Like, if you're not, if you're going to be bullish on anybody, like, ever, it wouldn't it be Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid? Isn't this what? Isn't this what we like watch football? ball for is that we have the best young quarterback, you know, in decades and the best coach for the best quarterback. That's awesome.

Trust me. I'm pumped about watching them. In the same way, in the same way you pick the Browns because it's fun to pick the Browns. I'm picking Patrick Mahomes to be good because I want Patrick Mahomes to be, just throw seven touchdowns for the rest of my life. So do I. For the express reason that I am picking the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl.

Are you picking them to win the Super Bowl? I am not picking them to win the Super Bowl. losing to the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia Eagles. I have it. I wish I could pick a tie in the Super Bowl. You know what? I just want that Super Bowl to go into like,

I guess it can't go into multiple. It can't go into multivorettes, right? We can just play that game into oblivion? What was it? Was it the Rams Panthers game like 15 years ago that went to double overtime? Do you remember that? Let's do it.

I'm into this. Just six overtimes between the Chiefs and the Eagles and the Super Bowl. In Miami, Florida. Back in your home state. Back in my home state. Yeah, and where I went to college. But, yeah, I think that it's going to be a great, I think it's going to be a great Super Bowl.

It's absolutely going to happen. There will be literally no variables between now and then. So just lock it in. Except for the Patriots inevitably going. Oh, no, the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl. But, you know, the Super Bowl, it's going to be, I don't know how it's going to happen. I haven't really worked it out.

But it's definitely going to happen that both, it's going to be true that the Eagles and the, the Chiefs are going to play in the Super Bowl and the Patriots are going to win it? Yeah, that's probably true. Well, it's kind of like how I picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl before training camp and then I was like, well, how are the Patriots going to win the Super Bowl? And then their franchise quarterback retired. The Patriots are figuring out a way to somehow sabotage the Super Bowl.

Life finds away. All right. Thank you very much, Jeff Goldblum. Jeff Goldblum. I appreciate your presence in this podcast. All right. Finds away. That is a, that's all we got, guys. The NFL season is here. I have to watch the Bears play tomorrow.

And I'm trying to forget that that's a thing. I'm sorry. I'm sorry you're suffering with it. I'm totally kidding. I'm actually, now that I don't have to hedge it anymore because the off season's over and the actual games are starting,

I'm all in. You're going full Homer? On what? On the sport of football or the Chicago Bears? On the Bears, I'm all in. Super Bowl. This is happening. Okay.

Wait, are you just change a Super Bowl pick to the Bears? No, but I'm holding out real hope that they can be really good. There's no, absolutely no reason to emotionally hedge or have tempered expectations anymore. So I'm just leaning into this full bore. Okay. All right. I disagree.

All right, guys, as always, thank you so much for listening to the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast network. We will be back on Sunday night with our week one recap, which sounds weird to say, but that's where we are. We'll talk to you guys soon. Today's episode is brought to you by Flore and Decor. Flore and Decor is where the pros go for tile, wood, stone, and installation. materials. But the best part about floor and decor is their PRO services and loyalty reward

program. From the dedicated pro hotline, the exclusive pro app, your floor and decor team is just a touch away. Visit floorindicor.com today to find the location nearest you.