The Ringer NFL Show - Emergency Khalil Mack Pod | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 292)

Episode Date: September 1, 2018

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark link up for an emergency discussion of the Chicago Bears acquiring Khalil Mack. They discuss the parameters of the deal (01:00), what this means for the Oakland Raiders (11:15), and new expectations for the Bears’ future (20:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's your NFL show. It is an emergency Kalil Mack podcast. I'm Kevin Clark joining me from a wedding on a cell phone. Robert Mays. Hey, buddy. How are you? I'm okay. I'm excited to be potting.

I'm wearing shorts in the office, which is a major faux pa on weekdays. But there's no rules on Saturday mornings. Yeah, we're living our best lives today. I'm sitting just west of San Francisco on the Pacific Ocean overlooking some cliffs. There you go. Just kind of stared out over the water and loving everything about life. Okay. It's a great day, Kevin. Okay. So it's a great day for you because your Chicago Bears traded two first-round picks for

Colomac. Colomac is a top three, top five defensive player in the NFL. He's as dominant of force as there is on the defensive side of the ball when he's at his best. And he's playing for a franchise that hasn't had a dominant player like that since Julius Pepper is a couple years ago. Robert, when you look at this trade and everything that comes with it, the draft capital that's given up, the extension that they're going to have to give him, your immediate thoughts are what? Let's party? I don't know. I'm very happy. I understand the risks. And I understand it's a lot to give up. And I understand that not only are you giving up the picks, but this is likely going to come

with an extension that probably tops what Aaron Donald got from the right. Presumably they know the number, right? Presumably they have to know the number before giving up the draft capital, so I don't think the extension will take long. No, I think it'll be almost immediate. So you're likely going to give him a deal with about $23 million a year. So here's how I kind of frame all of this. So let's think about it in the most practical terms. It's the two first round picks and the extension.

And so essentially the Cleo Mac with that extension, is that worth two first round picks? And I understand the arguments on both sides. I mean, it's not just, oh, well, it's just one first round. pick because essentially one is for Khalil Mack. That's not how it works. I mean, he's making $23 million a year, most likely with upwards of $85 million

guaranteed. So it's two first round picks on rookie deals and Kalil Mac. So it's a little bit more complicated, but the Bears have really kind of shown their hand this offseason in terms of what they want their plan to be, right? So Trubisky's on a rookie deal. We have seen how teams assemble

rosters when they have a quarterback on a rookie deal. We've seen the Eagles kind of load up. We've seen what the Rams have done this offseason. essentially doing something not totally dissimilar by giving up a first round pick for Brandon Cooks and giving him a massive extension. Brandon Cooks is not Khalil Meck. So I understand the thought process here, but the Bears have a plan that is about two to three years long. I'd say three years.

You have Trubisky on two more years of his rookie deal and then the fifth year option after this season. Most of the contracts they've handed out, Alan Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Tray Burton, the defensive contract, even Prince of Mukumara, Akeem Hicks is a couple more years that gave Kyle Fuller a big extension. A lot of the younger guys on that defense, like the Adi Jackson's of the world, or they're not coming up anytime soon.

So financially, it feels like there is a window to make this palatable because they've really pushed their chips into the table over the next three years. I'm probably rationalizing a little bit, but I can understand how you get there if you're the bears pretty easily. Okay, so a couple things.

bits of context. Number one is our own Mike Lombardi tweeted out a few minutes ago. I don't know if you saw it, that he's told that the bear's offer was by far the strongest featuring the two ones. No other team was willing to pay that much draft capital. In my opinion, I'm sure, I mean, obviously, this is such an obvious statement, but there are layers to it. It matters where these picks are. And that is tied in with how successful the bears are. So it's hard to say, oh, well, it's the 25th pick and not the fourth pick. it's this difference in value. If they're winning, this doesn't matter. If they're winning, it's like we always talk about,

I mean, when Mike Shanahan used to say, no one's ever said you've overpaid for a great quarterback, if Colomac is the transformative figure on that defense, and they go from the 10th overall defense last year to the number one overall defense, obviously you add Royquan Smith and a couple of other pieces, you still have Vic Fangio. No one's going to be saying in two years,

damn, I wish they had that, you know, I wish they had that capital to draft a, athletic tight end or whatever it is, nobody cares. And that's just... And that's... And that's... The entire point of this is that if Trubisky does not work out... If he does not get elevated by Nakey,

if that offense doesn't take a significant step forward, none of this matters anyway. Right. So that's it. That's the thought for me. It doesn't matter... Even if it's the fourth pick, yes, it's going to look awful,

but it was going to be awful anyway. Right. I mean, that means that Trubisky just totally landed flat and you need to invest the next couple seasons in him no matter what. So it was going to be a flaming disaster any way you split. Okay. So that's why I'm okay with it, because even if it does end up being a top 10 pick, that is the worst case scenario independent of the Cleo-Mack trade and the Cleo-Mack extension.

So the one thing I think I will say on the positive side for the Bears is what we've known now is that you need to go all in as soon as you have your rookie quarterback. You cannot wait to see if he's the guy. And it's a bit, it's sort of a cousin of what's going on with Kansas City where even though Trubisky played last year, they don't really know if he's the franchise guy, but they've seen enough practices and enough preseason games to say, you know, we feel comfortable going all in because you have to. You have to go, look at Dallas.

Dallas got caught flat-footed and there's a lot of reasons they did that. They didn't know that Tony Romo was going to get hurt. They didn't know Dak Prescott was going to make $700,000. and be a top half of the league quarterback, and in 2016, be maybe a, you know, close to great quarterback. And they weren't ready. They didn't have the cap flexibility. They didn't go all in with the weapons around him.

They had Jason Witten's retirement. They just weren't equipped to go all in. Had they known they were going to hit on Dak Prescott and he was going to make less than a million dollars for a few years, they could have completely transformed the franchise. And the Bears had that plan. The Bears are trying to meet in the middle. That's what I'm saying. That's exactly what I'm saying.

They're trying to anticipate that guy taking his step forward. Because that's what you need to do. You don't have enough time. You don't have time to do anything other than that. There's only three years left. These windows are small. The only way to, once that five years is up, and you have to have a high-priced quarterback,

because that's just the cost of doing business, the only way then to maintain that competitive balance is have an elite elite quarterback who makes up for the three or four players you're missing with that cap money. And that's very difficult to do. That's a harder needle to threat. It's five of those guys. And when people are saying, how can you give up this much for a non-quarterback,

including the salary, it's because they're paying their quarterback $7 million next year. The salary cap is a certain number. The bears are 37 million under the cap next season right now. Before this Mac expense, you assume they'll probably negotiate his number down decently this year. I mean, I assume it'll come in, maybe it like 10, somewhere around there. The Rams got Donald to about eight, but the bears don't need to do that because they sell up some space right now. And then it'll probably take a slight jump next season. So let's say it's, for argument sake, 27.

The bears have 37 million in space now, and they've spent a lot in free agency over the last couple of years. You have logical cuts like Beyond Sims. The bears can easily work within a salary cap next year, even with back jumping to a huge number. I mean, they can do this. This is the reason that you create an ocean of caps. space is to spend it. And players like Coel Mac don't become available in free agency. Yeah. That is the reality of this.

So you cannot get Coril Mac in free agency. So what you're doing is you're saying, will I give up two first round picks for the right to get a player I would never be able to get on the open market? That's exactly what just happened. So there's a couple of things. Number one, this is less, if I'm looking at it from a glass half empty perspective, I think that it's less a cap thing, a more draft capital thing. And it's interesting to me

because Adam Schaeffer tweeted this out. So obviously this would top if it's two ones and that's it. We don't know the full parameter's the deal, but if it's two ones and that's it and there's no sort of offsetting fourth round pick or anything like that, this would top the Jared Allen trade, which was a 1-1, 2-3s, and a swap of fives. And then going back further, and this is just a different sport, basically. In 1988, the Seahawks traded Fred Young to the Colts for two. first round picks and in 88

the Redskins had to give up two first to get Wilworth Marshall but that was in a compensation for free agency and then Sean Gilbert was two firsts in 1998 and it's 20 years ago what's different about that I mean it's obvious and it's the team building

question of our era which is the rookie contract thing if you hit on two first round picks now they cost five six million dollars seven million dollars depending on where it is and I remember 11 years ago, Bill Parcell's first press conference with the Dolphins when he took over, and

they had the first overall pick. And he kind of hinted that teams didn't want the first overall pick because it was just too expensive. And the game changed so much after 2011 when they cap the rookie wages. And now first round picks are a hell of a lot more important than they were 20 years ago, 10 years ago, when the Jared Island trade happened.

So I just, if you're going to spin it negatively, I think it's not a salary cap. thing. I don't let. And this salary cap can be solved. It rises 10 to 12 million dollars a year now. It's, it's, there's not enough hours in the day for teams to spend that much money. It's a draft capital thing for me. If it doesn't work out, that's going to be the downside. I totally agree with you. And that's a lot to give up with you. Those two picks, again, if the bears aren't very good and they're a little bit higher in the draft, then we're going to look back at this and say, wow, I cannot believe they don't have the thing. A rare player.

Guys like Khalil Mack do not have become available. That's just how it works. So here's a good news. And that's why they made this deal. And it's, The other thing here is that I understand that, and I completely agree, but let's not ignore the uncertainty that comes with the draft. Of course. I know, of course. And most strong picks are a 50-50 proposition anyway. And in Kaleel Mack, it is a 100% proposition. You're most likely dedicating money to him for three years.

It may be four, if they spread out the guarantee, a little bit more like they did with Donald, which is fine. It'll be 31. Yep. you get Khalil Mack from 27 to 31 with a defense that's already pretty complete when you look at the just personnel top to bottom. I understand why you go out and a limb and do this because these deals just aren't on the table very often. And that probably speaks to what the hell the Raiders are doing.

Okay, so the flip side of trading two first round picks and that much draft capital is I'm not totally sure that John Gruden is going to make them pay. No. Like John Gruden's not going to go out and crush it. John Gruden's not going to go out and take the two best players. And he's not going to have a 20, you know, a Seahawks draft from 2011 and 2010 and just draft like four future Hall of Famers.

I don't think that's going to be happening. Yeah, I was thinking they're just going to draft some left guard. And then you're going to say, wow, I'm going to do and take that. Okay, I have a question. If you're a raider right now, especially Derek Carr. I mean, obviously, like, the Twitter's whatever, but he has not been shy about like, this is weird. If you're in that locker room, what the fuck are you thinking?

Like, how, if you walk into work today, I can't even imagine what the conversation is. They just trade our best player. For no, for, I mean, obviously you get the two picks, but why did this happen? How did this get this way? What are we doing here? Is John Gruden ever...

I explained away to Mark Davis stuff. Do you think that that is real? Because it feels like maybe the idea that it was reported that they had the cash flow and everything else happened too fast. Maybe that's not actually the case and they're just more going on here than we think. Or John Gruden's incompetent. It could be one of those two. Lewis Riddick tweeted this out. No logical reason for Raiders to make this football move. No salary cap reason either.

This has to be a cash. issue. And we talked in the middle of the week about how that was the, I had heard from everybody just the thought that it was maybe tied to the funding issue. And it was all thirdhand. It was all sort of league gossip. And then people who were much closer, and I said this at the time, people were much closer to the process, Raiders reporters like Vic Tafer reported it was not a cash issue. And so just to refresh everybody's free agency knowledge. So, the funding rule makes it so that you have to put all the guaranteed money

you owe a player into escrow. So you have to have the money up front. You cannot sort of get the money from year to year. And so the theory went. Did they say take a loan out for one of Manning's contracts? Isn't that the last time this became like a thing? It shouldn't exist.

The rule shouldn't exist. Is there a reason that NFL teams are going to just run out of money? They literally print money. Yeah, I don't understand any part. of this. But that speaks to just like how ridiculous this all is, is that the move and everything else going into it probably has played a factor in this.

I mean, if I were a Raiders fan right now, I cannot imagine how pissed off I'd be. Okay, let's take a quick break. Today's show is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. Hiring used to be hard, multiple job sites, stacks of resumes, and a confusing review process. But today, hiring can be easy, and you only have to go to one place to get it done. ZipRecruiter.com slash ringer NFL. ZipRecruiter sends your job to over 100 of the web's leading job boards, but they don't stop there. With their powerful matching technology, ZipRecruiter scans thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and invite them to apply to your job.

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Have the Raiders ever seen an NFL negotiation? Have they ever, do they not know whether it's Levion Bell or Aaron Donald or any of these guys? It's like, oh, wow, this is getting ugly. It's getting heated. And then like a week, a September 1st comes along and they show up and you give them more guaranteed money and you say, we're going to look at this next year, whatever it is, and you keep them on the team.

Or you just give them the money. Just give them the money like they did with Aaron Donald. It took two off seasons, but it happened with Aaron Donald. There are so many ways to resolve these things. And what the Raiders did was they made the fake stuff real. All of the posturing, ooh, we're going to trade them. We're not going to talk to them. We're going to break off negotiations.

All of the posturing, the Raiders are the first team in history to actually do for real. That's, so two things. One, that's why I wrote about it this week. Because it just felt like that was happening. it's like, there might be some fire here. I mean, this is not like the rest of these things. This is going on a while. And two, what I've heard from people who have been around the Raiders in the past,

that apparently when they came to Mack with an extension, he was so turned off by Groin that it really did, like, put painfully and kind of irrequibably, irrecurably sour-taste in the mouths of both of those parties what they were talking. That is my understanding. I've heard that from a couple of people, but apparently it started off on such a bad note that it was going to be really hard to come back. And again, that just speaks to their inability to negotiate like a professional NFL team. Okay, there's a couple things. Number one, I agree.

The relationships seem irreparably damaged, okay? Having said that... We both can't say irreparably, apparently, today. I'm too excited. Having said that, do you know how many people in the NFL work together well? and absolutely fucking hate each other. Yes, it's called being a professional. Absolutely fucking.

There are coaches and quarterbacks, head coaches and quarterbacks, coordinators, offensive coordinators and quarterbacks, offensive coordinators and head coaches. Maybe it doesn't last for three or four years. But right, you get two beers in them at the combine, and they're going, that fucking guy. Like, it happens. And you know why everybody sticks together

is because there's a lot of money to be made and a lot of glory if everyone, is rowing in the same direction. You know what? If John Gruden and John Gruden is like, oh, I don't like Colum. I don't, if he, if it was all personal, I feel like those things could have been resolved.

There's a lot of acrimonious relationships in this league. I'm going to take it because the end result of all that dysfunction is Kalil Mac is on the Bears right now. Okay, let's talk for a second. Short term, short term expectations for the Bears now, 2018. I think they can make the playoffs. I mean, I think that would, again, it's all about, the offense. I think the defense, you know, defense is hard to predict. Aaron Schatz

Street about it today. He's 100% right. Defense is not necessarily a, this is what it looks like on paper. It's going to be a. Sometimes that's not how it goes. But they have, that was the one spot on this defense that I looked at and said they really need somebody there. And now they have the best guy. That front seven is disgusting. I mean, that unit top to bottom is one of the more complete in the NFL now with Kalilback. There are no like defined weaknesses. I mean, maybe Jonathan Bullard is not as good of another interior alignment as you'd want. I don't know what else to say. Leonard Floyd has his issues, but he's pretty darn good.

The Roquan, Danny Trevathan, that's secondary. That unit has a chance to really take a huge step because what Kulamak does, he's like the rug and the Big Lobowski. Like, he just brings the room together. He is going to give so many single teams to the guys on that defensive line. And their run defense is going to be better because of him. everything becomes elevated because Khalil Mack is there.

They can easily have a top five defense now. It's all about the offense. Can the offense, I'm not asking them to be last year's rants, but can they take a significant step forward just by virtue of scheme, helping their quarterback and elevating the past catchers? It's a loaded NFC, but they absolutely could win 10 games

if things break the right way. It is so funny to me that on July 29th that the report came out, that John Gruden and Colomack had never spoken and Gruden was like oh no I did talk to him once when I got the job and then that that's supposed to help as if that would diffuse it

I did he's a quote I did speak with him when I got the job when I first got the job when I first got hired I spoke with him oh thank you John could you imagine any other franchise where like it's just one guy Sean McVey

got hired last year when Aaron Donald won a new contract wouldn't have looked weird if Sean McVeigh was just like I don't really have that much interest in talking to you Aaron Donald Yeah definitely I mean I had my doubts

about the John Gurdon era in Oakland They have gotten much much more pronounced over the last 24 hours I would say I would also say that they're moving soon I feel like I'm ready to believe anything with the Raiders?

I mean, absolutely. The Raiders could be the worst team in the NFL this year. Maybe. I'm... I'm saying, they could. I'm ready to believe anything with that. Any store, we're going to see... Is there a reason that the Raiders will not have a bottom five defense this year?

I mean, they had bad defenses when they were good in 2016. They had the 29th ranked defense by DVA last season with Khalil Mack. they added no players they were pretty bad in 2016 but they just had a yeah they just allowed incredibly huge place everything about this is great

you're excited hey buddy I literally was just I was having breakfast at the hotel and September by Earthwind and Fire came on and I like almost started dancing in the restaurant I'm at a wedding I cannot imagine how things are gonna go for that point in the good news is you get to dance

oh yeah you get to dance in a judgment FreeZone. Hey, I know this is a Calil Mac emergency podcast, but I would be remiss if I didn't say that Paxton Lynch has made the 53-man roster in Denver. Wow, that's what matters today. Good for Paxton Lynch. The only person having a better day than me is Paxton Lynch. They will look at the waiver wire, but on the first wave of cuts, Paxton Lynch has survived. If it weren't for any other day, I would say he won. But you know what? Today, I am the

winner. Did he win? I think he kind of just wants to go somewhere else. Jobs are good. I like jobs. I mean, the money's guaranteed. That's the beauty of being a first round pick. It's wonderful.

Paxton Lynch, by the way, Paxton Lynch, by the way, a great argument the first round picks are overrated. We're tying a bow on the entire podcast by letting you listener know that if you have a first round pick, sometimes you end up with Paxton Lynch. Or sometimes you trade

two of them, and you get Khalil Mack. Exactly. It's a great day, man. My favorite day is a Bears fan. Recently, it was probably the day they signed Julius Pepper's. I'll do it as the Julius Pepper's Day. And I remember it fondly. And in similar way, I will remember the scenery. I remember the feeling.

Waking up and my phone was just, like, littered with text messages and Twitter notifications. It's the best kind of day. I, and just like, out of obligation, I tweeted it yesterday that if you were available, I think it made sense for the bears. And then somehow it was willed into existence, which full 12 hours. So real quick, we did the short-term expectations, long-term. Do they have to get to a Super Bowl for this move to have worked out? I don't think that's how it works.

I think you make the moves available to you in the moment. And that's kind of why I understand it right now, because it's about, it's not about results. You have a plan and they are adhering to that plan. It's a plan that's probably lasting about three years. and that's fine with me. I mean, if you have a coherent understanding of where you want to go and how you can get there, if it doesn't work out, that's okay.

And right now, in my mind, they have one, and that is so much more than I can say about this team over the last five. I'm happy for you. Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. It's a good day. All right. That's it for us. Thanks, guys. Talk to you guys next week.