The Ringer NFL Show - Ep. 60: Pro Bowl Snubs, MVP Odds, and Playoff Scenarios With Robert Mays and Danny Kelly

Episode Date: December 22, 2016

The Ringer's Robert Mays and Danny Kelly discuss Pro Bowl roster snubs (6:00), who the real MVP is (18:00), the best-case-scenario playoff matchups (28:00), and the most impactful Christmas Day games (40:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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And they've stuck to that playbook ever since. Miller Light. Spell different because it's brute different. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. My name's Robert Mays. I'm a writer at the Ringer. Joining me on the other line, it's Danny. Danny, how are you?

Hey, I'm doing great, man. How are you doing? I'm all right. I'm at my mom's house. Just cooking Christmas cookies, so it's just very distracting. It's like seeping in underneath the door. I'm trying to block it with some towels, but it's just not working very well. Tis the season, man, tis the season.

We should probably let everybody know just for clarity purposes. We're recording this on Wednesday because obviously it's a holiday week. People are out and about. So if there's anything that happens, you know, if somebody gets hurt very badly in the next two days, that's the reason we didn't talk about it. So apologies for the fact that our coworkers have families and lives. Yeah, that's just really selfish of them. I don't appreciate it at all.

It's bullshit. but somehow I think both you are going to get both you and I are going to get by all right so I kind of wanted to talk about some stuff again because it's Wednesday because we're not right on the cusp of these games happening I want to do some more big picture conversations yep and the first thing I wanted to touch on just because it happened last night and I don't know how much you care about this but the pro bowl rosters were announced yeah and it feels like outrage about the pro bowl rosters is just an annual tradition now as much as the release of the pro bowl rosters is yeah is there is there

First of all, do you give a shit about this? I guess it's my first question to you. Short answer on that is no. I just really don't. I mean, I don't. I like the all pro teams a lot more. Sure. That matters.

Yeah. I mean, I can see. I understand the Pro Bowl thing, though, because there's, I think there's quite a bit more, there are quite a few more guys that make the Pro Bowl than the all pro team. But there is still sort of the element of this is just a popularity contest, name recognition contest. and you get a lot of guys that have been good in their curve or maybe not that good this year make the Pro Bowl. But we'll get into kind of like all the team and everything.

I thought actually this year's Pro Bowl teams were pretty good, though. That's what I thought as well. I feel like that was just worth mentioning. I like the guys that made it. I feel like a lot of the guys who were deservate did make it. The fact that it's little things. The fact that Vic Beasley is on there as an outside linebacker is ridiculous. I mean, that's just so stupid.

we do that every season. I feel like maybe we figured out that Cleo Mac probably ends up in the defensive end category correctly. So that's a good thing. I like that Chudevian Clowny made it. I feel like people haven't been paying enough attention to how good he's been. I know the sack totals aren't mind-boggling, but he's been fantastic against the run. So he does somebody that deserve to make it. I like that those three Raiders offensive lineman made it.

I think that speaks to the season that it's been, which the Pro Bowl often does. So overall, I don't think it's a totally objectionable list, but I'm with you that it's not hugely important. Yeah. I mean, like normally there, I feel like most seasons, there's two or three guys on there where you're like, what the fuck? But like this, I mean, I was looking through just prepping for the show and I was like, well, I mean, these look fine to me. Like, there's nothing like, there's nothing totally glaring or weird about it. And like he said, there's a few. Yeah, it's not at the year.

Who made it like Brandon Merriweather, or Brandon Merriweather made it like twice. those are like, oh man, we're really doing this. I know Lorenzo Alexander's kind of surprising, but he's put up a bunch of sacks. I mean, outside of that, I get it all. The corners all look decent. I think that Casey Hayward's been really good this year. So I'm glad that he made it for the first time in his career.

So, yeah, I tend to agree with you. Yeah, and I mean, I guess should we talk about guys that maybe borderline didn't deserve to make it? Because there were a few. I mean, who's on that list for you? Well, I guess. Maybe not the word does not deserve doesn't really work, but like I was a little bit surprised that Reggie Nelson was on there this year Yeah, that's fair. Maybe there was a little bit of overflow from last year because he you know had all these picks last year was really good last year I didn't think he was all that great this year so far

And Earl Thomas wasn't on there which is a little bit suspect. I know that's coming from me But just the fact that I guess the proble sort of ignores sometimes the overall effect someone has on a team versus like the stats, you know what I mean? So that was a little bit weird. It's kind of a weak NFC pass rushing group. The fact that Everson Griffin made it as the defensive end is kind of surprising, but then you think about who else

would have made it from that side, and because you put Vic Beasley as an outside linebacker, it's not that surprising that no one else got in that defensive end wise in the NFC. Right, and it's actually a little bit surprising Mike Bennett made it in. Yeah, he's missed so much time. He missed

time. He's not really, I mean, it's kind of the same deal. He's not like a full-time defensive end anyway. And he plays a lot of inside. You know, he plays out more the guard a lot. And I think on the year, I'm checking it right now. He has three sacks. So, I mean, that's surprising.

I mean, that's just a legacy pick. That's a lifetime achievement award. On the other hand, it is cool to see Cliff Averill make it finally because he's always been a very strong pass rusher. And, you know, I think his stats just weren't there enough, you know, compared to some of the other, like, top-tier pass rushers. So seeing him make it for the first time, his career is pretty cool. If we really did this, what you probably do is you would say,

okay, Vic Measley moves to edge rusher, which is how they should describe that position. And then KJ. Wright should have made it as an outside linebacker. It's little things like that. I mean, I'm not going to get super upset over those things because they don't actually matter, but they could do this in a better way. Yeah, no, how long is it going to be until they start doing that? Because I think Edge is really becoming more ubiquitous. I mean, it really does, especially with so many sub packages and things like that. It's like I don't even, honestly, sometimes I don't even know like what,

like what scheme teams run enough to like call them a defensive end or an outside linebacker because they change it. No, you don't. That's the entire point right now is that you can't make that distinction. Right. So I'm all for that. I mean, I think that would be amazing if they change that to just edge and then like off ball

linebacker or whatever. I don't know what you call it. Just outside linebacker. Yeah, move linebacker. That's fine with me. Just off the linebacker. Off the line linebacker. Actual definition of a linebacker.

Right, exactly. Yeah, so I mean, I don't know. We can quibble over that stuff. But let's see. Who else I have written down here? I thought that it was, I don't know, it was kind of surprising that Amari Cooper made it over Crabtree.

Yeah. He's probably not the best rider's receiver on his team this year. Right. Which is, so that was a little bit of a weird one to me. Yeah, I love that. I think there's more touchdowns. Sorry, go ahead. No, the NFC wide receivers just, they did that the right way.

I mean, those are the guys I feel like probably should have made it. Julio Evans, Beckham, Fitzgerald, that group, no real quibble for me. No, there's no, yeah, there's not really anything you can complain about there. The tight end group, Greg Olson definitely deserves to be in there. Jordan Reed, I think you could definitely make the argument he deserves to be in there. Not that I'm like, I actually don't. I wasn't like looking at the pro bowl rosters and being like, oh, the Seahawks didn't make it enough. I thought Jimmy Graham actually has had a really good year.

So he could have been, he could have been, you know, part of the tight end group. Are there any, are there any quarterbacks that you thought got the snub this year? Not really. I mean, Rathlisberger isn't having a great season, but I don't know who necessarily would have thrown in ahead of him in the AFC. I'm not sure a ton of guys have been markedly better. You guys can say luck. Yeah, that's a good one. Yeah, his team just hasn't been good enough.

So, yeah, I would probably put luck ahead of Rathusberger. In the NFC, I mean, Ryan, I think is a no-brainer. I think Rogers is a no-brainer. I guess that's fine. I mean, who would you throw ahead of any of those guys? I mean, the only argument I think he could make is for Stafford. Yeah, I mean, that's, again, it's not like a, you know, the word snubb gets thrown around. I don't think he's getting snubbed today.

He was borderline. He was borderline pro bowl caliber. I'll put it that way. And that's fine. And he's had a great season. You probably could have acknowledged that, but I don't have a huge problem with any of the guys that got it. Yeah. And a lot of these guys are going to get in anyway as alternates because.

Exactly. Yeah. By the end of the season, it's not going to matter anyway. So that's a good point. By the end of the season, we're going to have about 100 pro bowlers. I don't even know how many there are. But like, it's going to make double. Because there's so many guys just don't want to play.

I mean, we saw what happened last year with, with, with, He got hurt in the Pro Bowl and that caused him to miss part of the season. So, you know, I don't know. You guys talked about sort of that they're changing up some of the format of the Pro Bowl, right? They're doing more some fun, I guess, like skills competitions and dodgeball and shit and stuff like that. Yeah, we'll see if that actually makes me tune in, but at least they're trying to do something.

I appreciate the effort more or less. Yeah, totally. So, I don't know. Let's get into some other stuff that's both voted on and semi-arbitrary and doesn't have anything to do what's going on in the football field. I think this is just a good time to reevaluate the MVP situation. Because the odds came out this week. I believe that ESPN stats and info threw them out there,

and I think a lot of people were chatting about them as a result of that. And right now, Ezekiel Elliott is the favorite. He's 15 to 8. And then from there, you get your stable of quarterbacks. So Brady's 2 to 1. I do that every freaking time. Derek Carr is 6 to 1. Matt Ryan is 7 to 1, and Aaron Rogers is 14.

to one. So just taking into account those odds, who the favorites are right now, I want to go over the strengths and the weaknesses and the arguments for both. So let's start with Zieg. And figuring out the strengths for his argument is very easy. One, he leads the NFL in rushing comfortably. Two, the MVP tends to be a narrative-driven award. If it's your season, a lot of the time you will get the MVP award. So that argument is very much in play with Zique. So you have those two things, just how much he's come onto the scene, you know, that team has really dominated a huge part of the storylines over the entire year. So if you're trying to make a case against him, what would it be? Well, I mean, I think if, I mean, it's clear if you're trying to make an

argument against him, it's one look at what Prescott has done, you know, as the quarterback of that team. And, you know, you could just make the argument and the fact that he's not quarterback is, you know, one of them. Just because the quarterback is so much. important. Now, the other thing you could say is he's not running for all those yards if he doesn't have like the elite of the elite offensive line in front of him. Yep. You know, so the run game in general is a very, I mean, it's a team. It's a team effort. I mean, you have to get the blocking in front of you. Obviously, he's done really, really well with what he's been given. And, you know, he has the stats. He's made the play. He's made a lot of big plays late in games to put

games away so you know I can definitely see how he's the favorite right now and you know there it's kind of like if you're making arguments for and against MVP a lot of it is just philosophical like yep you know like how you land that's what this conversation is which I don't mind yeah so like for me I probably would pick a quarterback over a running back like nine times out of ten and in this case I probably that suck though that it's just most valuable quarterback that's my least favorite thing about the MVP award in the NFL. It's so slanted that way, because if you're going by most valuable, it's inherently going to be a quarterback. And that's why in recent years, it's been so rare that we have a running back. The last time a running back won the MVP was 2012,

and I feel like that happened because of two things. One, Adrian Peterson was Wolverine, coming back from that ACL and rushing for 2,000 yards. And two, there wasn't a clear-cut quarterback that could have won it. My vote that year was for what? I mean, that was, was the most kind of the corkiest year in recent memory and this year I feel like one of the reasons Zeeke has a little bit of an inside track to get it is one all that Dallas stuff and two there isn't a clear-cut quarterback choice yeah and I mean that's kind of what I was going to say next is like nine times of ten I pick a quarterback but this year there's like four or five quarterbacks you could pick they're splitting the vote weirdly yeah exactly um so I mean do you pick

Brady after he missed four games, even though they won three of them. You know what I mean? Like there were things like that. Like, clearly Brady is going to be hugely, hugely important. Like, you can't just look at those four games that they play without him. And then you look at Carr, who's had a whole bunch of, you know, game-winning drives and fourth quarter comebacks this year, you know, he's been amazing. Matt Ryan has put up ridiculous stats.

You wrote about that last week. Like, his stats are insanely good. And then you have Rogers who's just freaking, like, on a tear right now and he is probably playing better than any player in the NFL right now potentially. So I mean there's a couple other guys that I think

could put, I mean if you were talking about Lazica Elliott, I think you have to throw Levyon Bell in the equation honestly just based on what he's done as both a receiver and a running back. I mean like he is he's just insane like he's having an underrated year as a

superstar I think. I totally agree. He leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage. You know, he is the, even with Zee getting as much work as he is, I still think Levyon Bell is a more important part of his offense than Zke's, both as a runner and a pass catcher, because that offensive line is nowhere near what the Dallas offensive line is. It's a fine group, but they can't push people around. And it's not as if Levyon Bell just has this massive volume that allows him to wreck stuff up. He's averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He's getting a lot per clip. And you can find that with everything he's doing in the

passing game. It's insane. Yeah. And he's carried that offense a couple games when Rathesburgers look like shit. Yep. You know, not only can you make the argument that he's more important to that offense. Like I think he could be potentially more important to any offense in the NFL. So like that's why I had him written down as a right-in guy. You know, You said he's leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and he missed, I think, three games. Yeah, it's nuts. So it's just insane the year he's having, and it's actually been relatively quiet. Like, obviously, the Steelers aren't on the level of the Cowboys this year.

It's just they've been hit and miss. They're getting hot at the right time, but they've been hit and miss all along, like, throughout the year. So they're just not getting quite as much pub, but, like, I don't know. Like, if Elliot's in the conversation, I think you've got to put Bell in there, too. right now on a 16 game pace, he would have 105 receptions. Jeez. He has 72 catches and 11 games. That's nuts.

Yeah. I mean, you think about that for a running back. Marshall Falk never had 100 catches in a year, did he? I mean, that's just all-time type of stuff. I mean, you think about the guys that have been the most important pieces of their passing game as running backs. And the type of year he's having right now, he's in the country. conversation with any single one of them. It's really, really crazy.

Yeah, Marshall Fogg could, the most catches he ever had in a year was 87. Bell has 72 right now, and he missed a handful of games, and there's still two games left. God. Yeah. I think it's crazy the year he's having. It's all-time type of stuff. Yeah. I mean, you think there's two games left.

Say he gets 200 yards, say he gets 150 yards from scrimmage in both of those games, which is not out of the question at all. No. That gives him 2047. the season with those games missed. He actually could have made a serious run at the all-time Yarsum Scrimmage record if he had played every single game. Wow.

Yeah, I mean, it's like we don't eat. We're not even really talking about him. I mean, I know. I know. It's weird. I understand the sort of the MVP is generally on a one of the top like five, four or five teams in the NFL usually, right? Like Cam Newton, you know, was that guy last year when the, when the, when the

Panthers went 15. and one. You know, it's generally a, you have to be successful to be the MVP kind of thing. But yeah, I don't know. If I'm, you know, if I'm voting, I'm definitely putting him on the ballot for sure. Barnwell wrote about this a couple years ago. He was trying to figure out what constitute an MVP, just kind of the bullet points you'd have to hit to get there. And having the most fantasy points in the league was important. And right now, Aaron Raj, seriously, it was. I mean, it's not that people look at that, it's just that you have to have that sort of production to win it. It is a statistical award in some ways. So if you look at that, Aaron Rogers is at 308.6 right now. Matt Ryan is right

there. So I feel like both of them have had statistical seasons that lead to MVP awards, which is why I feel like that's not why I think they both deserve it, but you could see each of them winning it. For sure. From a most valuable perspective, I still think that you could probably argue that it's Rogers, especially considering what he's done in the last six weeks. or so and how guys like Russell Wilson have fallen off people I made that same argument for earlier this year. But I right now, just based on the season that he's had and rewarding a guy for having a monster year, I think that Matt Ryan deserves it. I'm with you.

And I was trying to figure out who I actually would pick for this. And I kept landing on Ryan. I just think that offense wouldn't be, I just think the Falcons wouldn't really be in the conversation without him. And I mean, obviously you could say the same about other guys. But I just think like number one, that's like my gut. Number two, the stats are there 100%. Like he's had a ridiculous season. What was the stat you'd said? Like his yards for attempt was the, is on pace to be one of the highest ever or something like that. It's like the set of most ever right now. He's at 9.33. Yeah. For the season. The next highest in the league is Brady at 8.24. He's averaging a full

yard per attempt more than anybody else. And you look, he's completing 68.6% of his passes, which is the third most in the league after Sam freaking Bradford and Breeze. He's averaging 310 yards a game. They are historically high scoring offense. I know his, the scheme is really good, and he's helped a lot by the players around him. But this isn't a Kirk Cousins, we're 7th in DVOA, it's a dangerous offense, and it's really driven by the guys around him.

This is the best offense in football right now. Get rid of Oakland, get rid of Dallas. If you look at every single measure for offensive output right now, yards per play, DVOA, anything, it's Atlanta. And they would not be close to that without him. Yeah, I'm actually on board with Ryan winning it. I totally agree with you. It's just one of those things where it's probably going to be Elliott. I feel like he'll probably win it.

but the just the numbers are there this like one of the best offenses of all time you know he's just played so like mostly flawless out throughout the whole year you know he hasn't had any of the backbreaking picks they had last year and I don't know I'm on board I oh you oh the the Falcons are one of the best offenses of all time that's your saying yes that's what I'm sorry yeah yeah totally no no I thought you were talking about the Cowboys was like that's the thing though people think the Cowboys are really good they're very good they're very good offense, but the Falcons have just burned teams down. It's been really amazing to watch. And I know it was San Francisco last week, but it doesn't matter who it is. And if you look at

the Falcons schedule, I mean, that's one of the most impressive things about what Ryan has done, is that they have played an absolutely brutal group of defenses. Denver, Seattle, the Chargers, who are pretty much a top 10 team by DVOA, the Eagles who are really good defense, Arizona, Kansas, city. These are the defenses that they've played this season. They have the number one strength of schedule difficulty by DVOA for defenses that they faced.

And they have the number one team by DVOA. That group is that group of defenses is really impressive. I'm trying to look up the Cowboys, so I know they played the Giants twice and lost of them twice. They played the Raiders. Dallas is sixth. So that's what actually bumps Dallas

ahead of New England in DVOA. Dallas is second in value. they get bumped up because of who they've played. But Atlanta is number one without readjusting for who they've played and they've played the toughest schedule. That is insane. I mean, you're kind of preaching to the choir here. I like the Ryan pick.

This isn't for you, Danny. This is for the people. You get the word out, man. I mean, like, yeah. Trying to convert. I'm on board. I'm on board. All right.

I'm glad we both have decided that Matt Ryan is probably the deserved MVP. and will not win it because it's going to go to Ezekiela no matter what we do. All right, buddy, before we get to the rest of the show, let's hear from a couple of our sponsors. Today's ringer NFL show is brought to you by Miller Lite. Miller Light is brewed to be the light beer with more taste, less calories, and half the carbs.

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Go to meundies.com slash NFL show right now for 20% off your first order. That's meundies.com slash NFL show. This is the time of year, man, we're like underwear and socks and all that. It becomes hugely important. I just find myself wanting to be in a onesie at all times. I just, whatever you're wearing all lounging around the house at this point in the calendar, I don't know. It seems more important than it does it any other time in the year.

That's just me, though. Not all of us live in a temperate climate of the perceiving. Northwest. It's not just you. It's been cold here, man. I mean, it's been in the 20s here. Yeah, go fuck yourself. I looked out my window the other day and it was a chill negative two. It was great. I've gotten very familiar with the delivery men in my neighborhood. It's funny because I was the other day, it snowed here and it like never snows here. And so I was, I was like shocked because I had to have the heat on all day long. It was crazy. It was just crazy terrible person. You're an absolutely terrible person.

All right, let's move on to the next parts of our show here. I wanted to chat about not who's going to make the playoffs, but just some of the possible scenarios that could exist and what excites us. Because, you know, the actual ins and outs of, well, this team can make it with this tiebreaker and all that, your eyes can glaze over very quickly. But what I thought could actually be exciting is to do some, have some conversations about what playoff matchups would actually be fun and which one seems possible.

Looking at some of the stuff and how it could shake out, what has you juiced? Well, you know, right now, we have the chance of seeing the Packers versus the Falcons in the wildcard round, which would be a lot of fun, I think. You know, two really, really good offenses right there, two, like we were talking about, two MVP candidates. I think for a wild card game, that's almost as good as you're going to get, like honestly. And so I'm excited about that potential. I wrote down I mean this isn't

one of those games that I'm like Oh I can't wait for this but Lions Giants Feels like it would be a fun game You know just based on There are two teams that have kind of Overachieve I don't know if overachieved is the right word But like they've surprised us this year With how good they've been

And I think that would be another fun wildcard game Right now I think that's right now Those are the two NFC wildcard games How they're slated if the playoffs are right now So you know right now be if they started right now, but I feel like there's going to be some shuffling. I wouldn't be surprised at all if those were the six teams that ended up making it, but I do think it's going to be a little bit different at the end.

Because, so here's right now, or excuse me, Detroit is still in the, has the four seed winning the NFC North. There's a pretty good chance that Detroit does not end up in that spot. Because if they, yes. So if the Packers went out and Detroit loses to, the Packers went out, Detroit automatically has to lose another game. So that would mean that the Packers jump Detroit and become the four seed in the NFC, and Detroit falls back.

If Detroit loses out, then things start to get very interesting. So if Detroit loses out and Tampa loses out, and then Washington wins out, Washington gets in. Which would mean Washington would go to Atlanta for the three-six game. Oh, that'd be fun. How much fun would that be? I mean, that is just a game with a lot of points. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.

Two really good offense, again. I wouldn't mind that at all. The Redskins look kind of like they're falling off right now. I don't know if they're going to pull it off, but that would definitely be really interesting. I think another game that sort of the, if things fall differently, then wouldn't the Packers play the Giants? Yes. So that is the game that seems like it's probably going to happen, would be the Giants going to the Packers in the 5-4 game. That's an awesome game. Think about Rogers the way he's playing right now against that defense. And this would be the third time they played against each other in the playoffs in the last 10 years. You know, remember that 2007 NFC championship game where Tom Cawflin looked like Jack Frost. It's just like his nose is going to fall off. I actually do remember that. Yeah.

So, I mean, that brings memories back of that. It played against each other in 11. So the last two times the Giants have won the Super Bowl, they've had to beat Green Bay on the way to get there. Oh, yeah, okay. Which is very fun. So that one's a cool one. But then you look at some of the other NFC scenarios.

If right now, it looks like if Detroit wins either of these next two games, they're going to get it. They'll be the six at least? Yes, because if the Tampa would have to win out most likely to get there, because Tampa has six losses already. So Detroit, if they beat Dallas and then lose to Green Bay or they lose to Green Bay, or they lose to Dallas and beat Green Bay, they're probably going to get in. And there's a chance that Packers are still the six in that scenario.

Okay. So all those teams could get in, and that would be fun if they did. But those are the games I'm looking at there. I think that Detroit and the Giants is really funny, or it's really fun. And I think that somehow, if the Washington were to play Atlanta, that would just be a blast. Yeah, I agree. The NMC right now looks more exciting, doesn't it? Because I'm looking at the AAC, and we got the potential of a Chiefs Texans game, which...

I mean, that's brutal. I guess Titans' Chiefs would be fun, because the Titans just went to Kansas City and won. So that would be a lot of fun. So here is what I'm hoping for. And that's that I would like Tennessee to win. I want Tennessee to get in because then you could have Kansas City in Tennessee. Yes. Yes, but you could also, Kansas City, Tennessee is fun in the first round,

just because we just saw it. I think both those teams are entertaining. But we could also have Oakland, Tennessee, which I know that game has already happened and it was that entertaining, but I feel like Tennessee's offense is better now. I just think that could be a really fun game in the first round. Oakland could end up in the wild card round. Who's going to overtake them right now? Kansas City.

Oh, I guess the cheats. If Oakland loses one more and they end up with the same record, Kansas City has the tiebreaker. That's very plausible to see Casey getting the buy and Oakland slipping back. That's really easy to see. I see, yes, that's interesting. That would be a fun one. Titans or Raiders? Ooh, I like that a lot.

That's definitely more interesting than what's on the slate right now. I like that one a lot. So if the Titans were to play the Raider, you know, that I like, I enjoy that one. And then there's also a scenario where if Oakland gets the buy and, Pittsburgh is the three seed. We could have Oakland and Pittsburgh in the divisional round. That would mean Kansas City is the five. So if they beat Tennessee, we'd have KC. New England.

So it would be Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, and then maybe a Pittsburgh, New England AST championship game. Oh, boy. Yeah. That is what hell of a couple weekends. That would be amazing. I think the Chiefs Patriots would be a fun game, too. Exactly.

That would be the most entertaining way it could all be. break, in my opinion. Because right now, it looks like Miami's probably going to get in because they would need to lose out more or less and then have some other wonky stuff happen. So if they win one of these games against Pittsburgh or against Buffalo or New England, they're probably getting in, which makes things less fun. Is Matt, is Tanna Hill going to come back? I haven't actually really been like paying close attention to that or is it just Matt Moore

all the way through. I think it's going to be Matt Moore all the way, which makes things way. less interesting. It's not as fun. Yeah. There is a chance as well if Miami somehow loses both of their next two games we could get Baltimore and Pittsburgh as the three six game.

That would be fun. Baltimore and Pittsburgh is a first round playoff game is pretty great. Yes. That would be fun because I would like to see the Ravens get in. No offense to the Dolphins fans, you know, just Matt Moore in the playoffs isn't that exciting. But like the best defense in the NFL

if not, you know, if not the top one, one of the top three. Making an end of the playoffs could like just totally fuck up some stuff. Yes. I would not mind seeing Baltimore get in, but they pretty much need to beat the Steelers to do that. They desperately do because they already have six losses. So they would need to win out most likely to make it. There's some scenarios where they can be nine and seven, but those are harder to get to. For Pittsburgh, this Baltimore game is essentially a playing game. Because if they lose to Baltimore, then they would need the dolphins to lose out. Because if Miami wins one of these next two games,

and they both finish 10 and 6, unless another team ends up at 10 and 6, I believe Denver, then Pittsburgh's not going to make it because Miami has the tiebreaker. Wow. Yeah. So there's a real chance where the Steelers could make it.

That's the thing. It's like weird teams rooting for other teams because if Miami and Pittsburgh are the two teams tied for the sixth lead with 10 and 6, then Pittsburgh, then Miami gets in. because they have a time in there as well, then Pittsburgh wins because it's a three-way tiebreaker. So it's all this crazy shit that has to happen. So that's the thing.

If the Steelers lose to Baltimore, they're hoping that Denver wins out because that means Denver would be 10 and 6 and the dolphins maybe as well. So those are all the kind of different things flying around the people have to root for. But I think that it's not hard to imagine that Oakland, Pittsburgh, KC, New England, divisional around. battle and then we have whatever that aFC championship game ends up being. Battle Royale. I know that a lot of this season has sucked in terms of quality of play and watching

the games and everything else, but it's playoff time now and we really have some awesome options that are on the table. I feel like and granted I wrote this early on or like halfway through the season so basically I'm just agreeing with myself

but the first half of the season which you always should. I was pretty right about it. Let's be honest. The first half of the season kind of sucked. We've had some pretty good football lately. We've had four or five straight weeks of like pretty exciting, you know, good matchups. You know, the Monday night game, or was it Sunday or whatever?

Sunday night game, the Cowboys and Box was really, really good. Like, if you look at that game early on the year, that looks like a terrible matchup, but that turned out to be a really good game. We've had some really, you know, just solid weeks of matchups. And I wrote this is what I'm agreeing with myself about like it sets up for a really wild finish. And I think, I mean, I don't know, I'm looking at the playoffs in the last couple weeks of the season. And there's going to be a lot of fun. Like there's going to be some crazy battles right now.

And the year of no great teams means that anyone, you know, can kind of run with it. And it's kind of like Game of Thrones. Like you just don't know what the hell is going to happen. Like, you know, some of your favorite characters could get killed off in the next, you know, within the first week of the playoffs. So it's going to be fun. There's a very real chance that we're looking at a Kansas City, New England, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Dallas against Green Bay or the Giants,

and Seattle against Atlanta, finally. Yes. That would be amazing. I mean, those games are just in terms of quality of play, stylistic matchups, everything you could want out of those games, you're going to get. Do you remember what Oakland paid Pittsburgh last year? vaguely it was like a firestorm i mean they just drew like a thousand yards combined

the chance to say i know it's colder and everything else but i just think that you have a ton of offensive arsenals that could be involved in the playoffs here and i'm very excited to watch it yeah no it's like the styles make fights thing and and it's setting up like you said to to have some great stylistic you know matchups and so uh yeah it's gonna be great and that's i guess that's the benefit of having a season where there's tons of teams that are very unbalanced. You know, there's very, there's like only a few really balanced teams right now. And so matchups matter. Like who they're playing matters.

And so, I don't know, this is going to be, there's going to be some pretty, I just feel like it's going to be a crazy. There's just going to be some weird upsets and, you know, crazy games. And, you know, I don't know how I think that the home field will matter, but I don't know if it's going to be quite as important this year. I think for the Cowboys, it's going to be big. You know, the Seahawks, it's important, but they're just sort of not as dominant anywhere anymore. So I don't know if it's like that big a deal.

I just think it's going to be crazy what kind of like what happens is going forward. All right, Danny, let's actually talk about some of the games that could make these matchups a possibility going forward. But before we do that, let's hear from our sponsors one more time. No team goes into the season without a game plan. And Buffalo Wild Wings knows the football fancied a game plan that's built for game day glory, a game plan that should include 21 signature sauces and seasonings, a great lineup of beer taps, and an arsenal of wall-to-wall TVs. All those details make for a game day plan that can't be beat.

So, win or lose, if you're a football fan, you still win at having the best game-day atmosphere around. Buffalo Wild Wings. Wings, beer, sports. We do it for you because you're a football fan. Russell brought to you by Capital One. Capital One knows you've got questions about your credit. You may be asking, who's really in charge of my credit score, or how does my credit actually work? That's why Capital One created the Credit Wise app.

So you can check your credit score anytime you want, right in the app. And it's free to everyone, Capital One customer or not. In fact, millions of Credit Wise users have improved their score by 20 points for more. So download the app for free today. Availability depends on presence of credit history from TransUnion. Credit Wise is offered by Capital One Bank, USA. All right, Danny, let's get into a couple of these games. Let's start with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, something we mentioned earlier.

Obviously, the marquee game of Christmas Day, something I will be watching in lieu of speaking with my family. Is there any reason to think that Pittsburgh is in a better spot now to attack this Baltimore defense than they were the first time these two teams played this year? I don't know. You know, I think Levy on Bell is just playing a lot better. I don't know if they're in a better spot now, because I think that Rathesburg has actually kind of been off lately.

Yeah. I heard someone talking about, I can't remember where I saw it, but people were saying, like, oh, how surprised would you be if, like, after the season it came out that Rathsberger was playing hurt or whatever? Bill was talking about that. Okay, yeah, there it is. And so, I mean, I think that I wouldn't be that surprising because he's looked pretty, like, regular. I mean, even bad at times. Yeah.

So if anything, they might be a little bit worse off. I think the way that Bell is playing, though, changes. You know, it's just they can lean on that for sure. But if they don't... That becomes harder against Baltimore, though. Right. I mean, you're looking at the number one run defense in the league. So that slight shift in the Pittsburgh offense has actually made them less poised

to take advantage of a Baltimore defense. It's kind of a weird shift that screws them. Yeah, and so I don't know, but this... Again, it's just... Pittsburgh is so much more balanced than Baltimore. Like Baltimore, for a minute there, we're like, okay, maybe Baltimore's offense is actually really good now. Nope, wrong. I don't think they are.

I think that maybe they're marginally better than they were early on in the year, which is not saying a whole lot. But I just think that Pittsburgh, it's at home for Pittsburgh. They're just balanced. Their defense is playing really well right now, I think. And that gives them a good chance. Like, this could be one of those lower scoring games. It's maybe not going to be a shootout. But I like Pittsburgh in it just because they're balanced right now.

They're one of the most balanced teams in the NFL right now. Their defense is playing so much better that you just believe they can make this a rock fight. If Baltimore does ugly it up, Pittsburgh is in a position to play that game. And you do just assume kind of like where the Giants are right now. I know that Pittsburgh's offense is better than the Giants offense. But against Baltimore's defense, you're just hoping that, all right, once or twice during this game, can us having the three best players in the field be more important than anything else? Yeah, I think that's a good comparison.

Just because they're equipped to win those low-scoring games because they are now with that defense playing well. Yeah. You know, they have like you said, like you said, they have those guys that can make a big play here or there. I mean, that's like Beckham can take as like a slant 60 yards at any time. Same with Bell. Same with Brown. I think, you know, like that gives them the ability to win these games. games. It's kind of remarkable how good Baltimore's run defense has been. Their run defense

TVOA is negative 30.8, which is number one in the league comfortably. It's about 8% higher than the giant, or excuse me, about 5% higher than Seattle who's number two. Would you like to hear a fucking ridiculous statistic? I would. Denver is number one in past defense TVOA at negative 33.3. Yeah. Who do you think is number two? And what do you think theirs is? In past defense? Well, maybe Seahawks? I don't know. That's a good question.

It's Philadelphia. Philly. Philly, it's Philadelphia. They're at negative 10.2. The Broncos are three times better than any other past defense in the league right now. If you wonder how a defense can be number one a DVOA while ranking 24th in run defense,

that's how you do it. That is absolutely unbelievable. I mean, that is one of the more remarkable splits I think you could ever see. That is insane. Because they're better this year at the past defense than they were last year. I think it, isn't it per football outsiders, isn't it like one of the best past defenses ever? Oh, yeah, absolutely. I believe Tampa in 2002 is still the best.

I mean, they had something crazy. But I know that, I know that those, the Broncos are right there. I mean, but it's crazy. It is kind of nuts. They just can't stop the run. They just can't stop. That's the problem. Just kind of little differences that you have.

Oh, Tampa Bay in 2002 is a negative 51.9. Holy shit. How many Hall of Famers did they have on that? Sap, Rice, Brooks, Lynch, Barber. Yeah. Jesus. They were pretty dang good. Yeah.

All right. And then that Broncos' Cheaps game is the other one. I mean, it's the one to watch. We don't have any more time, but obviously that's a monstrous game. And that kind of defense that the Broncos can play, it keeps them in this game. it gives them a chance to win out. And even as we talk about all these exciting playoff scenarios and involve these high-flying offenses or whatever,

the Broncos could still do this because of the talent they have on that side of the ball. They could still win out and they could get plenty of help. And we absolutely could still see that team in the postseason. I mean, they still have the ability to completely take a quarterback out of the game, which just changes the calculus of everything, you know? And so I don't know. I still think Denver has a good shot of just screwing things up just based on their ability to kind of just make like a quarterback irrelevant.

So yeah, that Sunday or the Christmas Day matchups are great. I can't wait for that. All right. Well, we'll be back the middle of next week, I believe, guys. We'll be back on Tuesday, obviously Christmas Day and the day after we are going to give some people a chance to spend some times with their loved ones if they have them. And we'll talk to you guys when we get a chance. So enjoy your holiday. Please enjoy the weekend of football.

And we'll talk to you soon. Capital One created the Credit Wise app so you can check your credit score anytime you want right in the app. It's free to everywhere, so download Credit Wise today. Availability depends on presence of credit history from TransUnion. CreditWise is offered by Capital One Bank, USA.