The Ringer NFL Show - Ep. 67: The Conference Championships

Episode Date: January 20, 2017

The Ringer's Robert Mays and Danny Kelly thoroughly break down this Sunday's conference championship games, featuring the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Green Bay Packers (02:05) and the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to take on the New England Patriots (23:04). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The people have spoken, and Jeff Ross has returned for Roast Battle 2. The four-night event features top comedians getting verbally violent until just one is left standing, featuring a star-sided lineup of judges, including Snoop Dog, Sarah Silverman, Jason Sudecass. This is a battle you do not want to miss. The four-night event begins January 26th at 10-9 Central on Comedy Central. And don't miss the live finale on Sunday, January 29th at 10-9 Central to see who gets crowned the king or queen of cruelty. No team goes into this season without a game. game plan. And Buffalo Wild Wings knows that football fans need a game plan that's built for

a game day glory. A game plan that should include 21 signature sauces and seasonings, a great lineup of beer taps, and an arsenal of wall-to-wall TVs. All those details make for a game day plan that can't be beat. So win or lose, if you're a football fan, you still win at having the best game day atmosphere around. Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, beer, sports. We do it for you because you're a football fan. Welcome to The Ringar NFL show. My name is Robert Mays. I'm a writer at the ringer, joining me into the line. It's Danny Kelly. Danny, how are you? I'm doing great, man. I am fully into the acceptance phase of grief or whatever you call it. You know, my Seahawks are out of the game at this point, but excited about the games this weekend.

Oh, I thought you were talking about the inauguration. Well, you got, no, I'm not quite there yet. I was like, Danny, I didn't know we were going to go there this early on the show. Let's keep this to sports today, man. Yeah, that works for me because I'm actually excited about the weekend and football that is about to come. I've been in Atlanta all week, just kind of being around the Falcons,

and if I could be more excited about the game on Sunday, I am. It has somehow juiced me even more because that game is going to be fantastic. You know, it's Steelers Patriots on the other side. What more could you want? And we're going to do something similar on this show

to what we've done on the last couple shows we've done with the early playoff rounds. We're just going to dig into these. And because we only have two games, we're just going to beef it up. Let's do this. Let's start with Falcons Green Bay. Okay.

You wrote actually today about a couple numbers that just stuck out to you about these games. What are your numbers of note to go along with this one? Well, first of all, I mean, basically everyone expects this game to be really high scoring. The over under is 61. Has there, I don't know if you've looked it up. Is there ever been a higher playoff game over? Definitively, there has not been. No.

Holy shit. Seriously? Nope. Okay, wow. So there you go. this is, I mean, it's two really, really great offenses against two really pretty bad defenses. And that's kind of what the stats that I picked out talked about. And for the Falcons, first off, 73% of their red zone defensive red zone series ended in touchdowns.

73%, which is, I mean, like the Giants for, for instance, I think we're in the 30s, 39% or something like that. So, I mean, teams are getting touchdowns seven out of 10 times they get inside the 20 yard line, which is, I mean, essentially they're trying to be a bend, don't break offense. I know that's like Dan Quinn's philosophy. That's what sort of the Seahawks are too, you know, keep everything in front of you, don't get beat deep, and then stiffen up in the red zone. But this team is just getting essentially worse once teams get into the inside the red zone. I have a theory about that.

And I was reading your thing today and I was kind of thinking about, why is that the case person I was? And they are very, very good. I wrote about the Falcons defense today and just, the speed they have on that side of the ball. They're ninth in the league and average yards per catch allowed, average yak allowed on receptions. It really speaks to the philosophy and the people that they have.

They're going to let you, Ricardo Allen told me they play pure zone defense, just reading the quarterback's eyes about 80% of the time. And that is going to open up inevitably some stuff underneath. And the Falcons are excellent because of their speed at cleaning that shit up, whether it's Devon Jans, whether it's Keanu-Neal. The problem is when you get into the red zone, that becomes negated. There is no space so you don't have the strength to rely on of being able to clean up that space and cover it.

They cover a lot of ground. When the ground shrinks, that no longer becomes an advantage. And when you look at a team like the Seahawks, you have guys like Michael Bennett. You have guys like Bobby Wagner, KJ. Wright, excellent run defenders that are able to stiffen up when you get into a tighter space. Atlanta, especially as they've lost guys like Adrian Claiborne, who is their kind of Michael Bennett light as a guy that moves inside everything else. They have lost run defenders that make them better. And I feel like that's the reason that when you get into tight areas, they just don't really have a shot against really good offenses. Right.

And I mean, also they don't have Richard Sherman and Cam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who can, you know, they're a very, very good coverage players too. So, I mean, also Richard Sherman and, I mean, Richard Sherman is an excellent run defending corner. That's true. And Cam's Chancellor is a human battering ram. So, I mean, there's a lot of bodies on that Seattle defense that this group just doesn't have. They're trying to develop that physicality, but they're not nearly there yet. Yeah. And I mean, I talked about this a couple of weeks ago when we were talking about how the Seahawks defense has changed without Earl Thomas.

Essentially, it's bad. And so I wonder, you know, like if really anyone can run like the ideal version of the Seahawks defense, which is what I think they're trying to do. in Atlanta without, you know, some of the personnel that they really need. So I don't know, maybe it's kind of an interesting question longer term. Like can the Seahawks quote the Seahawks defense actually work without like Earl Thomas or certain key cogs in it? And right now, obviously the answer for Atlanta is no.

I mean, their defense is just pretty bad overall. So, yeah, that stat really stood out to me, especially against a team like the Packers who have been scoring and moving the ball. ball so easily the last eight weeks or whatever it's been. You know, if they can't force a few field goals, you know, like limit Aaron Rogers once they move the ball into the red zone, make, give, make, force them to have field goals rather than touchdowns. I mean, if they can't do that, then I don't know, like that could be their undoing.

For me, it's not about forcing field goals. It's about taking the Packers offense off the field in a single play. I think that's the only shot Atlanta has of stopping the Packers from scoring points. The number that I pulled is the Falcons have caused 13 turnovers in their last seven games, including the Seattle playoff win. After they had 11 in their first 10 games. So this is really a unit that has started to take the ball away. And there are time where that's a fluke with some teams.

But I think that the suddenness they have all over their defense makes them the type of group that can swing a game in this way. If you look at the numbers, Vic Bleasy leads the league in force fumbles with six. Keanu is tied for third at five. Geez. Dionne Jones is tied for the league lead among linebackers. The Levin passes defense. This team gets their hands on the ball. And I think against Rogers, that's exactly what they're going to need to do.

They're going to need to take the ball away. Because if they don't, I don't think they have a chance of stopping him consistently. Right. Yeah. And that's exactly kind of what I've been writing about. And when it comes to beating either the Packers or the Falcons throughout the whole playoffs, it's essentially like taking the. ball away one or two times. It's like one or two big plays could be the difference because it's

going to be just a shootout otherwise. And the team that makes one or two key stops is probably going to be the one that comes out on top of you know, comes out ahead at the end. So absolutely, I think that's that's a huge one. And I mean, it kind of goes well with what I was saying in the sense that like they're not stopping anyone. They need to get a turnover. They're not stopping anyone inside the red zone, I should say. They need to get turnovers rather than, you know, like you said, forcing field goals. So I think those are two really big points. On the other side of the ball, I had an interesting stat. And I'll ask you this, like if you can explain this to me.

But the Packers finished 23rd in the NFL against the deep ball this year, Perforable outsiders. And if you separate it out into the left, middle, and right, they're first in the NFL on passes to the deep left, negative 702, DUOA. They're 19th in the middle. and then dead last on passes to the deep right. So, I mean, I don't know why they're so different on the left and the right, but they move their corners. They do sometimes.

They weren't always. They have a lot lately. I kind of think Gunter has kind of been turned into their number one guy and, you know, he's the guy. God, which think about that statement for a second. Jesus. Yeah, right. So, I mean, they've just had so many injuries and they're essentially relying on like a, I don't know what mid-round he came from,

but a mid-round rookie to be their shut down corner, you know. And, I mean, he got worked last week by Des Bryant. He played pretty well against the Giants. But overall, the Packers are atrocious on passes to the deep right. And lo and behold, the Falcons, guess where they're deadliest. Yeah. To the deep right. They ranked number one in completion percentage in the NFL, 64.5.

percent on deep passes. That is, I believe the way the NFL does it is 16 yards or more. An average gain on those passes is 21.9 yards. And those are both number one. And that's where Taylor Gabriel does his work. And that's where most of his shots have come is on that side. And the play that I'm thinking about is one that Matt Ryan actually talked to me about earlier in the season, just that they knew they had it as soon as they lined up. And it was the one where Gabriel was on the outside. They had Austin Hooper kind of as a slot receiver to the right. they ran a little pin route with Hooper against Quarters Coverage to pull the safety up, which more or less turns it into man with Gabriel on the outside.

Guess who's not going to guard Taylor Gabriel in man coverage? Any cornerback on the Packers. So that actually leads to my hero of the day for Atlanta, and this can be Taylor Gabriel. I feel like he is the type of guy that can really take advantage of this Packers defense. They struggled against the deep ball, and Atlanta does such a good job of scheming ways to get him open down the field. field that I think he could have a huge game.

And if he does, it's going to be hard for the Packers to score enough points to beat the Falcons, even with Rogers playing this way. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, if you go back to the Giants game when Green Bay, you know, ran away with it sort of in the second half after they got the Hail Mary and kind of took over, early in the game, they had like a couple plays where the Giants just had them beat deep and Eli Manning just missed. Yep.

And then they didn't miss on the one. He hit Tavares king, which. If Tavares King is beating you deep, you should live in constant fear of Taylor Gabriel. Right. And I mean, so Matt Ryan is not going to miss those passes. He hasn't all year. I just, I have this Falcon's offense is so, so efficient and so just they're really, really, really good at executing. And so against this defense, I think that they're going to just kind of feast.

And it's going to be up to Aaron Rogers to, you know, kind of just keep him in the game all game. And another thing we should probably talk about is just that the whole theme with this Atlanta, the offense, right, is that they have so many ways to beat you. Even if Micah Hyde is in the game on every single snap, which considering he was against Dallas, he probably will be against Atlanta, made zero sense. But if you're the Falcons, I could see them using Tevin Coleman out in the slot and out wide a bunch in the hopes of getting either Taylor Martinez or Blake Martinez, excuse me. Who's Taylor Martinez?

Taylor Martinez is the former Nebraska. Is the quarterback for Nebraska? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Getting Blake, getting Blake Martinez and Jake Ryan out on Kevin Coleman, because that's a win for Atlanta every single time. So no matter how you want to spin it, the Falcons are going to find mismatches. I can't, I can find, in my mind, I can build a case for how the Falcons can stop Rogers because they have all of that athletic talent. It's harder for the Packers. I just think that they're so outmatched at every single level that it becomes tough.

Yeah, I agree with you. And I think especially now with, you know, Jordy Nelson's a big question mark for this weekend. I guess he was sick today. So we don't even know, not to mention the rib injuries, like he was like away from the practice because he was apparently sick or whatever. And we don't really know the status of Devante Adams. He, you know, hurt his ankle or his foot last week.

And I think he's been, you know, really limited, if not, you know, just basically not practicing this week. week and so we don't know his status. So Carty said if this was a regular week, these guys would not play, which that has to worry you. Yeah. So, I mean, even if they're in there, they're probably, they're sub, you know, 100%. They're definitely probably like in the 70s or 80s in terms of like their full speed.

So I don't know, man. I'm with you. I can build a vision in my head where Green Bay definitely wins just because of Aaron Rogers magic. But I can also see a situation this week where that. magic kind of runs out and you're like you know you're going to guys that they haven't really relied on the last like 10 weeks or whatever their their offense has taken off because I mean you're missing two of your the biggest touchdown makers in Adams and Nelson now well we'll get to those

we'll get to the versions of the game we're not going to build an upset this week we're going to do each one again because we're beefing up just kind of how we're looking at these but who is your hero of the day well I picked erronewell Allison for that for that reason and it was basically just, you know, they need someone to step up this week. And he's been really, really solid for a rookie, you know, kind of coming on late in the season and just showing he has a lot of talent. And I think that, you know, if we're going to see the Packers come out of this game with a W, then it's going to be kind of the Aaron Rogers show and he's going to be passing to some of these guys that maybe, you know, you don't really expect. So I see Geronimo Allison having a big game and kind of

taking over for the Adams and Nelson, you know, role in that offense. I picked another one. I picked another one for Green Bay just because I thought it was very telling. It's the same guy I picked last week, but for an entirely different reason. Mike Daniels, to me, holds the key to the Packers giving the Falcons offense some trouble because if there's one area of Atlanta's offense that struggles, that's not as good as the others, it's their guards, especially Chris Chester. And if Mike Daniels can really dominate the interior of the pocket as a pass rusher, I think that is the starting point to the version of this game that Green Bay wins.

because otherwise they're totally outmaned on that side of the ball. But if Daniels can really bother Ryan from the get-go, if Ryan can be uncomfortable without a lot of room to move in the pocket, that's the first step. And then from there, it's all Aaron Rogers. If they can bother Ryan on the interior, get a couple punts, a couple three-and-outs, a couple field goals even, that's where you just hope that the guy who,

he's a mythical beast. Like that is all there is to it. He needs to do exactly what he's done over the last two weeks. And as much as we've talked about the Falcons over the last 10 minutes, I'm not fucking picking against Aaron Rogers. Like, how can you at this point? I mean, that's what makes this game so beautiful, honestly, is that in any other situation,

I feel like he'd easily pick the Falcons offense to be like the dominant group in this. but like the Packers are like basically just as good at this point. You know, there's no one playing like Rogers right now. And obviously you can look at the stats for Matt Ryan, but he's not playing the way. No, he's the MVP,

but that there is absolutely a world in which Matt Ryan is the MVP and Aaron Rogers is the best player in the league. Like that's not, those two things are, they're not mutually exclusive. Like you can, we can't have that reality. Right.

And that's exactly what I mean is, it's just, the plays that he's making are so absurd every week. You know, getting out of the pocket making throws. He made one throw last week that we didn't really talk about a ton. You know, obviously everyone talks about the throw to Jared Cook down the sideline that got them within field goal range. But he made another couple of throws on the edge where one of them, he was, he just got

blown up. He got blew up kind of on the edge. And I remember in the game, actually, Joe Buck even said, oh, and Aaron Rogers throws it away. And then they, and then I think it was Cobb caught it on the sideline. It was like, so he literally thought he was throwing the ball away, but he hit like Cobb right on the sideline. So, I mean, he's just making just absurd passes, you know, still full control kind of just at the line of scrimmages. They got a free play touchdown last week.

And I mean, that's just kind of stuff. It's like it's almost cliche to talk about how good Rogers is at this point because he's just making so many great plays. Have you seen a quarterback ever play better than this? Have you ever in your life seen a quarterback like this? No. Honestly, no. because just just the like and again it's it's the style of plays he's exactly exactly i mean it's Brady is a mastermind and so is manning but it's not this this is different yeah and

and i feel like honestly the way that rogers is carrying that offense is different than what we've seen in the past like yeah i mean it's almost like it doesn't matter who he's throwing to and that's kind of what again is like we i talked about earlier like they're not going to have adams and and nelson but like honestly it just might not matter Yeah It's crazy that we're there So you're picking the Packers I actually pick the Falcons in this one

I'm kind of I stuck with I'm sticking with Kind of earlier impressions of the teams And I kind of like You know early on I picked the Cowboys To go all the way But I think just in terms of Like balance on offense

Like they have so many ways to be The Falcons do They have so many different guys that they can look to. They have a run game. And, you know, we'll see how their defense plays. They played pretty well against the Seahawks, honestly. So I don't know how much that's saying right now,

just because the Seahawks offense has been a mess all year, sort of off and on. But, I mean, they look pretty good against the Seahawks playing around, like playing fast, hitting guys, making plays. So I'm sticking with the Falcons, but I think this is going to be another one of those, like, instant classic games like we saw last week where essentially I can see this whole game being like the second half of last week's game with the Cowboys and Packers, where it's just trading points. I hear you.

The Falcons right now look like a better team. And I got a couple more numbers. I've got a couple more numbers for you from what I wrote today. Atlanta is 11th in past defense DVOA over the second half of the season. Really? 11th. That's pretty surprising. Guess who hasn't played over the second half this season?

Desmond Truffauts. They got better. That's really strange. And I think that in a way, it's a problem. product of, like you said, they look fast. And Dan Quinn told me this week, he said there's a difference between being fast and playing fast. And that is the bridge that this team has crossed over the second half of the season. Seven of 11 most played guys on their defense last week were in the first or second season of their career.

Wow. They are so young that almost inevitably they were going to get better as the season went along. And they are. They are just so much more in tune with the defense. They're playing with so much more authority. and that's why I wrote about them this week. Honestly, I just thought that they could really unlock this team's chance to win a Super Bowl. That being said,

here it comes. I've said it over the last couple weeks and I'm sticking by it. I'm not picking against them. I'm just not. And I think that the Falcons are a better team right now. I really do. And I love the way that they've played. I feel like as they've tried to save a defense.

that was the worst in the league two years ago, the best way to do that is to give yourself a couple game-changing, game-swinging talents, and that's what they've done. It's been a beautiful, just schooling in how to build a roster over the last two years in Atlanta. I'm picking Aaron Rogers. Oh, man, I love it.

I always say you've got that Stockholm syndrome now thing where you're like, maybe I do love Aaron Rogers, actually. I mean, I don't, I've made it pretty clear. that as a Bears fan, I still love the Bears, but as a professional in this business, you don't hate teams anymore because you understand that those are people. And I've spoken to many of them. That's the thing that falls away. I can still love the Bears.

I don't hate anybody. And if you don't have an appreciation for what Aaron Rogers is doing right now, you probably don't like football. I mean, honestly, like, if you're not just taking this in and enjoying it, like, you have to reevaluate why you're watching the sport. I mean, like we talked about a few minutes ago, he's playing at a level that we've maybe never seen from any quarterback, honestly. And so, yeah, absolutely. I think, I mean, I feel I was very reticent to pick the Falcons in this one.

Essentially, like home field advantage matters a little bit too. And I think that there's just a few things that make Atlanta look slightly better. But like, yeah, it's like really, really hard to pick against Roger Debt at this point. Like, how do you do that? Two points off of that. One, I'm going to be in the Georgia Dome on Sunday for the last. game in the Georgia Dome between these two teams. And I'm pretty freaking pumped about that.

I'm very, very excited. Two, just know that in the lead up to the game and the moments before it kicks off, as we kind of build up to this beautiful just display of points scoring wonderfulness, you will have picked against Aaron Rogers and you will have to live with that. That's a decision I do have to accept. Yes. All right, bud. Before we get to the other game, let's hear from a couple of our sponsors.

No team goes into the season without a game plan. If they did, game day highlights would be nothing more than a football folly's compilation. And while follies are hilarious, Buffalo Wild Wink's nose, fans prefer the taste of glory on game day. The kind of glory that comes with having 21 signature sauces and seasonings to choose from. Or a great lineup of cold and refreshing beers on tap. Or a collection of waltrowl flat screens so big, it would make your head spin. We cover all of those details. They add up to the kind of game day experience fans can appreciate.

And we do it because we appreciate things. So win or lose, if you're a fan, you still win in having the best game day atmosphere there is. Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, beer, sports. We do it for you because you're a football fan. All right, bud, Pat Steelers, let's do this. Again, you wrote about some really interesting stats just about both of these games. You guys should go check it out on the ringer.com today. by the way, pretty freaking fun week at the ringer.com.

No doubt. I mean, just everyone, yesterday was so great. I mean, Brian Curtis and Obama in sports, we had an oral history of the tuck rule. Alison Herman is doing fantastic work anytime she writes. I am just incredibly proud of my colleagues over there. And I encourage you so, so much to go look at the work that they've done. Please do that. Yeah, absolutely.

I want to, Pete Carroll always talks about competition, man. And every time I pull up the ringer, I'm always just like, damn it, I need to get better. There's just so many freaking good, just writers and amazing articles on the website. I mean, if you look at it today, it's like, there's like 10 new articles that are all worth reading it, like right now. It's just insane. So, I mean, obviously, we're a little bit biased, but, but I mean, it's objectively good stuff. And hands up to the copy desk. That's all I have to say.

They are kings among men. All right. Let's think into this a little bit. What numbers kind of stuck out to you about this one? Well, the first thing, and I kind of wrote about this last week a little bit too, but a big part of the reason the Steelers got to where they are. I mean, obviously you have that deadly trio on offense and, you know, the killer bees and all that. But a big part of it is the defense has played a lot better over the second half the year.

And a big part of that has been because they started blitzing like crazy. And this was the staff from Pat Thorman at Pro Football Football Football. focus, you know, from week eight, after their week eight by, uh, the Steelers blitz, 43% of the time, which was third most in the NFL and then they grabbed an NFL high 30 sacks in that time. So essentially they don't have, they don't have a dominant, you know, force on the outside. I think Bud Dupree could be that guy someday. He's kind of coming into his own, but they don't have like, you know, like a pure edge rush type guy that you can just line up and get sacks with. So they're using creative zone blitzing, you know, dropping one guy.

setting pressure from a linebacker or a corner. And that's just been really, really effective for him. So to me, that combined with the way that the Patriots and Tom Brady in particular plays against the Blitz is the story of this game. And I can get right into the next stat, which is Tom Brady, you know, his whole career, he's basically been a Blitz killer. Like, that's been one of the things that, you know, defines how he plays as a quarterback this year against the Blitz.

He's a 66% passer, 14 touchdowns, no picks, 8.5 yards per attempt, and 131.4 rating against the Blitz. And that's what makes this super interesting, is that... Yeah. So if you look at it... I thought it was fascinating just because you saw what you needed to do to bother Brady last weekend. The Texans did it.

They put it on film. And the good news about that for Pittsburgh is that to copy that, they only have to be themselves. they don't have to step outside what makes them comfortable because what Houston was doing, they weren't sending more bodies after Brady. That's how you get shredded up. They were sending four bodies after Brady in very creative ways,

dropping guys off the line of scrimmage, really making him figure out who's coming and who's not. And it included Whitney Merciless rushing right over the center, and that's exactly what you're going to see from Pittsburgh. Both Ryan Shazir and Lawrence Timmons were among the top five and inside linebackers in past rush snaps this year. They blitz and they blitz with those dudes. And that is exactly what you're going to see.

You're going to see those guys coming off the A gap. You're going to see them challenging David Andrews. And that's where you need to bother Brady for two different reasons. One, like Matt Ryan, he doesn't play well with the muddy interior of the pocket. That's where you can really bother him. And two, the two best offensive linemen on that team right now are the guys on the edge. Marcus Cannon and Nate Soler playing great. You're not going to be able to take advantage of them in that area like you could in the past.

So trying to pick on a guy like Andrews is your number one option. And that's exactly what the Steelers wants to do anyway. Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, just to kind of break it down and get a little nerdy. Let's do that. I love you nerdy, baby. Let's go. So what we're talking about when we talk about, you know, the A gap blitzing is you have one guy on each side of the center.

That's sugar in the A gaps. And essentially what the Steelers do is they line up like five or six or seven guys on the line. and that forces Tom Brady and, you know, their offensive line to set protections. Basically, you know, you have five guys on the line plus a running back in a tight end or whatever, and you have to assign protections based on what they're doing at before the snap. And what happens is they don't always blitz with those guys. They don't always bring pressure. So then you have guys blocking no one.

And then sometimes they do blitz with those guys. And then you have one guy blocking two people. So what it does is just really confuses the offensive line. They don't know where the pressure is coming from. And that's why they're able to send guys up, you know, basically against nobody. Or, you know, you have Lawrence Timmons going 100 miles an hour through an A gap to take on, like, you know. Dionne Lewis. Yeah, Dionne Lewis.

Sorry. And so it's like he's got like 30 something pounds on him or whatever. And it just bulls him over and Brady's down. So, I mean, what the Steelers do is not new, but it's so effective. And they have amazing athletes to do it, which is huge. They got the bodies to do it for sure. Yeah. And Sheaer is the guy I picked as my hero of the day.

I think that he needs a massive game for them to win, and he needs it in the exact ways that we've talked about. Defense, by definition, is inherently reactionary. Because the offense is dictating most of the time, as a defender, you're usually going to be playing off whatever the offense does. What the Steelers are trying to do with both this tactic and their overall defensive philosophy is to make the offense reactionary. Make the offense make decisions after the ball was snap.

the way the defense normally has to. And over the last six, eight weeks, they've done that extremely well. Yeah. The other thing, and I picked Shazier too, and the other reason I was, that's exactly what I was thinking too, but then the other reason is just coverage of linebackers and things that,

you know, we saw the Texans really struggled with, I think they had, I think the Patriots had three touchdowns on, on, you know, just simple routes by running backs out of the backfield. And I mean, that's the thing.

that the Steelers have to really, you know, step up their game. Sheaer is a really, really athletic, you know, very fluid athlete. And so I think he'll be able to hang a little bit more than you saw like McKinney last week to struggle against the speed at running back that the Patriots have. So he's going to be big. He has two picks in their last two playoff games. You know, he's just kind of making plays all over the field. If he can have, like you said, if he can have a huge game, that gives them a chance to beat the Patriots.

And I feel like the Steelers. can kind of negate one of the things the Patriots like to do. And that's New England loves going heavy and going play action out of it. They want to be able to take advantage of you and your base defense. Because for the most part, when you're in your base defense, it limits the package of blitzes you can use. You have to be a little bit more vanilla in base. So when the Patriots bring out James Devils as a full back, Matt Langel is a tight end. They're trying to tell you, okay, we're going to run.

And in reality, they're like, no, we're actually going to play action and throw it on you. And that's going to be interesting to see whether the Patriot or whether the Steelers take that bait, whether they go a little bit heavier, have to get out of those blitz packages, and then have to cover New England with those young corners against guys that now will not have pressure to aid them. Yeah. I mean, this is just such a overall, like, this is such a fun, like matchup because it's such a chess match. It's a beautiful chess match. The idea of McDaniels and Keith Butler and Todd Haley and Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia, this is everything. everything you could want as a football nerd my man i know honestly with the NFL we just as fans we just need to appreciate the two amazing matchups that we have this 100% so absolutely this makes the

wild card round worth it it makes the whole you know the whole first half of the season where we were exactly it was boring because this is like kind of an ideal situation for the NFL when it comes to just you know you have four great quarterbacks in the in the playoffs still got you know i have solid coaches, Tomlin, Belichick, you've got all these great assistants. Like, you know, several of them probably be head coaches soon. And yeah, I mean, it's just a great chess match on both sides. By the way, speaking of that, can we mourn the Kyle Shanahan era in Atlanta for like 30? I don't let's look at the three second moment of silence. Thank you very much. I really appreciate that. We need to show respect to what we just watched all season because that dude with that group of

guys, holy shit, was it fun to watch. And now, it seems like it's over and you're going to have to deal with him it's way too short okay first of all why do they always have to come to the fucking nsie west like why is Wade phillips in the natsy west now like why are you doing this to me um second of all I don't know if you saw this um Ryan O'Hanlin my editor sent me this clip and it was from last year early on in the season Matt Ryan I asked Kyle Shanhan had about that this week yeah that was so great because so basically

to give the background is um you Shanahan came last year to the Falcons, there were some growing pains. You know, they kind of switched it up, switched up the offense, tweaked it. Matt Ryan wasn't, you know, in his normal sort of world. And it took a little while for it to get going, and we've seen what it's become this year. It's basically one of the best offenses of all time.

And there was a clip last year where Matt Ryan sat down next to Shanahan on the bench after, I think, probably a scoring drive. And he was like, dude, I can't wait until I know this offense inside and out because we were going to destroy people. And it was just so prophetic. and true. I mean, honestly, just if you think about the intricacies of an NFL offense, like how many plays there are, how many options in every single play,

how many, you know, different changes you can do with a line of scrimmage, how you, you know, exploit different looks from the, from the defense, how you adjust throughout the game. Like, there's so much stuff you have to learn that it takes a while. And it's kind of just, it's bittersweet, honestly, for just the fans of the game that Shanehan's probably going to move on. And we won't get to see that, you know, more than two years. years in a row. Yeah, and it's a couple points I want to make about this, and we'll use this as a

transition back into Steelers Pat's in a second, but I asked Kyle about all of that, more or less. And you're right, and that there's so much you have to learn. But like Kyle said, he said, I could draw up everything in this offense pretty easily. I know it pretty well. I can never do it. And that's the difference is that you have to be able to start doing it. You have to learn what it looks like in full speed instead of just knowing it on the board. And that's what takes a while to do. Yeah. And Ryan told me something kind of fascinating when I talked to him before Thanksgiving. I said, Thomas Demetrov told me that the most important thing you and Kyle did this offseason

was figure out what didn't work in the offense last year. They said, what was that? What were those things? And I talked to him about it. He gave me an answer, but it was a little bit vague. And I asked Kyle this week. And he said, Matt struggled with playing with his back to the defense. He wasn't comfortable with it because he had rarely played in play action for the most part, like the way that we use it.

So he would just say, well, Kyle, why can't I just throw this without the play fake? And there was a little bit of a give and take there. And that speaks to what kind of reciprocal relationship at offensive coordinator and quarterback have to have is that this is a dialogue. This is, what do you think works? What do you think works? Let's go back and forth about this. And you've seen that in a phenomenal way with this offense. And the other place you've seen that, and in a way is the reason that the Steelers are is able to become who they are is that it hasn't been two years of Todd Haley.

It's been almost five years of Todd Haley. And the way that you get to dig into the layers of an offense is part of what's made the Steelers group so effective. Rathlisberger, Bell, Brown, this offensive line, they haven't had to hit the reset button. So it's allowed them to kind of develop these layers and nuances that have made them so dangerous. Yeah, man. And that's the kind of stuff about, you know, just the inside game of football that's so fascinating. Yeah, 100%. So on that side, which I feel like I love the idea that.

the Patriots offense against this version of the Steelers defense. But this Steelers, the offense still has Levian, Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Rathlisberger. Like, there's still some stuff to watch over here. What is, what's kind of your favorite matchup or inflection point that you're going to be watching? Well, Chris Wessling from NFL.com always tweets out amazing stats, by the way. So I'm always kind of just keeping an eye on his Twitter account. He tweeted something the other day that made me thinking. And it's kind of funny because, you know, we all think about Dallas as sort of the offensive

line, you know, just the ideal, the platonic ideal of an offensive line. But he said, as he pointed out, the Steelers are first in yards per carry before contact and run plays stuffed, the fewest runplay stuffed. And then second in sacks allowed. So like this Steelers offensive line is really, really underrated. It is. And it's, I think there are a few factors that come into play with that. One continuity.

They've missed six starts when they're starters the entire season. This is Marquis Pouncey being able to play all year. So that's played a huge role in this. The other thing, though, and I think with this offense more than any other, is that those numbers are attributable, sorry, those numbers can be attributed to the offensive line in part. Right. But Levin & Bell also plays into that.

And I know that it seems like his before, the before contact isn't that all the line? I wrote about that this week. It's not. What he's able to do with the way that he runs, and his running backs coach from college said this to me, so he fits his blockers onto defendants. because he stalls in the spaces that he knows will draw people in to where his offensive

linemen can get on them faster. And I used a play from the Miami playoff game in the piece that I wrote. And he's stopping as he moves off the B gap. And in the way that he stops and where he does it, he brings Kiko Alonzo back inside just a little bit and makes him pause. And it allows Alhandroville-N-Awa to get up on the combo to Alonzo. So that may seem like it's before contact. which is a product of offensive line play.

In reality, is the Steelers' offensive line very good? Absolutely it is. Does Levion Bell make them look better at every turn? 100%. It's kind of a beautiful, just symbiotic relationship. They are as good because they make each other better in step. It's perfect football. Yeah, and I mean, that's a perfect word for it, really symbiotic,

is because you wrote it and you wrote about how he really studies, just the offensive line blocking schemes and things like that. And he knows intimately like how they think in terms of how they're going to try and block different, you know, defensive looks. And so it works just to perfection. And I mean, I really enjoyed your piece just because he does. He has a style all his own. And I mean, we just don't see. You talk about it's almost like the way he runs typically is described as a negative because you don't want guys stopping at the, or, you know, quote,

dancing at the line of scrimmage. you want guys who are going to run downhill and, you know, keep their pad level really low and all that. But he's the opposite. He makes it work because he's just so explosive. And you showed me another clip last week where he basically, when he kind of takes the hand off and goes to the line of scrimmage, the defensive lineman just kind of stops. And so his explosiveness almost just creates an extra gap, kind of like out of the read option. You know, you have to like respect two different guys in the read option.

For Levi-on-Bell, it's like he's two guys. It's a great comparison. You negate defenders because you slow them down. You make them think. And that's what he does. It's kind of hypnotic. And it works for him. And that's what I think that the Patriots have, that's their challenge.

And Belichick talked about that this week. Marshall Fogg told me that he thought that the way that Belichick would try to attack Bell is to shoot gaps. You know, make sure they get into those spaces. Don't be passive. Don't be cautious. But what Belichick said this week is if you do that, he's going to find those creases. If you over penetrate, you're only opening more cupback lanes for him. There's a chance that's Belichick bullshit, and he's trying to put that out there because it's what he wants to do.

But it is a good point. You cannot overcommit because that's going to be a problem in and of itself. Yeah, I mean, because then he's so amazing in the second level, too. He's just going to run away from guys. So, I mean, yeah, and it's almost obvious, but it's like Bell is going to carry this offense this week. can, you know, I think a lot of how the Steelers play depends on how the Patriots are able to defend him. Because if they can't, then they're just going to lean on him pretty much the whole game.

And he's so good in so many different areas. He's great as a receiver. He's great, you know, just as a blocker. He's just so good at everything that he's going to be a huge key player in this game, obviously. I agree. And kind of my first thought for whom I hear of the day would be was Alan Branch just because as a nose, you need to be such a factor in the run game. But to me, it's more so a guy like Dante High Tower because it's not the lineman that Bell negates in the running game.

It's the linebackers because they're so not used to reading and reacting to that sort of movement. And I think that's where you're really going to need to be great. High Tower is going to need to say, I need to understand what he's trying to do, not what he's doing now. And it's going to be a huge challenge like it is every single week. One thing that I just keep thinking about in this game is I can just see the Steelers putting together like more than a few really long, just kind of methodical drives. And part of the reason for that, and the idea is you keep the ball out of Brady's hands, you keep the game close. And I think it's just you talked about it in your article. He has the ability to make what should be a two-yard gain, a six-yard game.

and that keeps them on schedule that gives them so many options on like a second and four they can pass they can do play action they can run it again they can do a little toss to the side they have so many guys that can you know like Antonio Brown

who can just take a little swing pass and get five or six yards anytime he wants so I just think the Steelers are going to try and control the clock in this one and I think they have the ability to do that I think that they're going to try to get the ball and Bell's hands in every way possible. He's going to carry it a lot, but I also see him as a receiver in kind of some interesting ways.

That Bowen and DSPN, who does phenomenal work. Like, I can't even speak to how good Matt is at what he does. He pointed out a play from the first game where Jarvis Landry was playing quarterback. Son of a bitch. Where Landry Jones was playing quarterback every single time. Bell was in the backfield, and he ran what looked like kind of a typical angle route, but the Steelers added a little bit of a wrinkle to it where they had to Castro go out as a lead blocker because they threw it to Bell

but behind the line of scrimmage. And it's that kind of stuff. I feel like they're going to try to use as many wrinkles as they can to get the ball and Bell's hands in every way possible. Because while Antonio Brown is still Antonio Brown, Levion Bell is affecting games the way Aaron Rogers is at this moment. He is just on a completely different level. He's unconscious.

And I think you have to tap into that against a team that probably top the bottom is better than you. Yeah, yeah. And the other thing that I totally agree with you about that, The other thing it does is it doesn't rely quite as much on Ben Rotherzberger having a good game because he's so up and down. You know, obviously we've talked about on this podcast how different the stats are for him on the road versus at home. You know, if the home version of Ben Rothsburger shows up, then I think the Steelers will win. But it just hasn't that hasn't really been the case this year.

And so assuming that the road version of Ben Rathesbrger shows up, then I think Bell is going to carry this game. and I mean that's a game plan that they can still win even if Rothsburger doesn't really have a great game. All right, buddy. Who are you picking? Well, this was tough, but I picked the Patriots. It's going to, I don't know, this was sort of just like the sort of the same thing that you were talking about with Aaron Rogers. Do you pick up against Brady and Belichick at home? Like, I just have a hard time doing that. I don't.

I'm glad. Oh, yeah, this is actually kind of funny because it goes. goes all the way back to the very beginning of the year. You picked the Steelers to be in the Super Bowl, didn't you? I did. I also picked the Cardinals, so that doesn't look as good. One out of two ain't bad. I picked the Steelers to be in the Super Bowl. I pick them to win this week.

I totally understand, and it's kind of the opposite. I am going against my gut here. And just the version of the game that I see, and we kind of built those in pieces over the course of this conversation. Bell having that big game, touching it in a lot of ways. She's your affecting the game in the middle of the field, then being able to create pressure on Brady without bringing extra body, to do it. I see it. It's not hard for me to imagine. I think that the Texans really showed where the

cracks are. And the Steelers are a much better football team than the Texans. Yeah, they are a lot better. And, oh, man, yeah, it's just so tough. But I still see Brady being very, very good against the Blitz for the vast majority of his career. Last week, we saw him kind of get rattled a little bit. He wasn't himself. I don't think that it's going to happen again. And I just think this is another stat that I used in my article today, Tom Brady led the NFL in sack percentage, which is the number of times he's pressured. It's the number of sacks he's taken versus the number of times he's pressured. So essentially his ability to, one, throw the ball away when he when pressure comes, to slide and move around in the pocket, step up, elude pressure in kind of his, you know, just

typical way that he does. He's very, very good at that. I think that that kind of negates or doesn't negate, but it mitigates the ability for the Steelers to kind of bring pressure. And so I think his ability to avoid sacks, get throws off, and make plays even in the face of, you know, blitz that like the Steelers are going to do. I think that's going to be the difference in the game. So that's why I'm going with the Patriots in this one. I think we're really going to finally get a chance to see how good the Patriots defense is against, you know, one of the top tier quarterbacks in the NFL because it's been a while.

and yeah that's just kind of to me this is such a great game because I really don't have a good concept of who's going to win I just I'm not confident in it and I think that's what makes it so good I'll picking the Steelers and to echo kind of what the theme that's gone through this entire show let's fucking do this I am so so pumped about watching these two games this weekend I mean this is everything you can want as a football fan everything you can want as a football nerd it is going to be fun as hell Danny thank you for doing this so we have one more game after this weekend, which pains me. But that's just how it is.

And to all of you, thank you for listening. You know, we appreciate it. And, man, enjoy the weekend. I know I will.