The Ringer NFL Show - Ep. 69: Greg Cosell, Jonathon Jones and Aaron Schatz

Episode Date: January 27, 2017

The Ringer's Robert Mays is joined by Greg Cosell of NFL Films to discuss defensive adjustments for the New England Patriots (01:45). Then Jonathon Jones of Sports Illustrated talks about the Falcons' place in Atlanta (21:49). Finally, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders weighs in on some interesting statistics for both Super Bowl teams (34:37). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The people have spoken, and Jeff Ross has returned for Roast Battle 2. The Four Night Event features top comedians getting verbally violent until just one is left standing. Featuring a star-started lineup of judges including Snoop Dog, Sarah Silverman, and Jason Sudakis. This is a battle you do not want to miss. The four-night event begins January 26th at 10-9 Central on and don't miss the live finale on Sunday, January 29th at 10-9 Central to see you get crowned the king or queen of cruelty. To the ringer NFL show, my name is Robert Bayes. I'm a writer at the ringer, doing something a little bit different with the Friday show today because we don't have a game this weekend.

It's a just merciful weekend off for everybody. Danny and I are not going to do our deep dive on the Super Bowl until next week. So we wanted to use this opportunity to get some more voices on the show. We're going to be welcoming some of the same voices that did our preview stuff, including Jonathan Jones from Sports Illustrated, to talk about the city of Atlanta and where the Falcons currently stand. We're going to be welcomed by Aaron Schatz from football outsiders

to give us more of the metrics-based viewpoint of the Super Bowl. but before we do that, we wanted to have on Greg Koseau, who I enjoy talking about football with as much as anybody. Greg, thank you so much for doing this. So, Robert, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel this week, huh? That's what I had to do. I mean, you know, we do, we got in a nice rhythm with me and Danny and me and Kevin, but I like being able to do this, especially when it's a game as big as this. It's fun to get as many different perspectives on it as you can because it's always interesting to pick people's brains

about some smaller stuff that they're seeing about it or some stuff I didn't think about. out. But I want to start where everyone's mind is right now. And that is with the Falcons offense, which by any number you want to throw out there has been one of the better ones we've seen in the last 25 years against the number one scoring defense in the league. And one Kyle Shanahan said today is the best defense they played all season, bar none. So Greg, we've talked, you know, everyone's going to talk a lot in the next week about Julio Jones and what the Patriots are going to do to stop him. If you had to guess what kind of tactics are going to be the basis of how they defend him on Sunday?

Well, I think there's a larger issue there. It's not just Julio Jones as an isolated player, Robert. Now you get into personnel packages on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are very multiple with their personnel packages. So what that means is that the Patriots will then play different personnel packages themselves. So it starts there. It's not just a matter of, hey, let's take care of Julio Jones. and the other thing to keep in mind is Malcolm Baller will likely not play Julio Jones.

Malcolm Buller does not play those kinds of receivers. So we saw him play Antonio Brown. He did not play DeAndre Hopkins. He doesn't play against bigger physical receivers. So there'll be elements of double teaming with Julio Jones. They'll be dedicated doubles where they clearly are doubling him with a safety. It'll normally be McCordy. There'll be situations where they play two.

deep safeties, and it won't be a dedicated double, but there'll be safety help over the top. There'll be situations where they'll line up and play man to man with one deep safety, and they'll live with it. And then it just depends on what happens on each of those plays. And the Patriots also just do a better job of bracketing guys like that in more differentiated ways than most teams, right? They'll play linebackers underneath and just kind of shift the coverage that direction in ways that are kind of more creative than other teams even try to.

Well, Bill Belichick has been known throughout the years, and believe me, in this kind of game, and pretty much in every game, coaches, coach the coaches players. So Kyle Shanahan will be very familiar with Bill Belichick, and Bill Belichick, over his career, has selectively doubled receivers. He's known for that in particular in the red zone, where he'll often double two receivers, but he'll do it within the context of the field as well. So it won't be something he'll do on 30% of the snaps or 50% of the snaps, but he'll do it selectively, and he'll do it in unpredictable down-and-distance

situations where you might not expect it. Yeah, that's the thing, is that there's really no way to know where it's going to be coming from, why it's going to be coming, and that's Kyle Shane-Ahan's challenge. And if there's any offensive mind in the league right now that seems like he'd be able to do it, he's probably up there. So just looking at a couple of those different approaches, so say they play some too deep, which the Patriots have done a lot of, this year. They have more flexibility in the back end that people give them credit for, because

they can put to Ron Harmon back there, and it gives them two more, two range of your guys at safety rather than having Chung in the box. If they do play that too high look a decent amount of the time, if you're the Falcons, what is your approach? How do you think you take advantage of that? Well, the too high look, again, it depends whether it's manner zone. They will play some cover too, and that they'll play predominantly out of their dime package with six defensive backs. normally means is Patrick Chung will match up to a tight end because normally it would be McCordy and Harmon Deep. So Chung would match up to the tight end.

And then you'd have the three corners match up to the wide receivers. And then you get into a potential issue with Coleman or Freeman if you're going to play man because a linebacker would then have to match up. And that could be one of these matchups that is very intriguing in this game. And I think that that's one thing the Falcons will look to do, Robert, is they'll look to personnel packages based on their anticipation personnel-wise to create Coleman and or Freeman man-to-man on linebackers, and they'll feel very good about that matchup. That's really interesting because usually when you are kind of connecting a limited

playbook or a predictable playbook with a personnel package, it's when teams get a little bigger. It's when you have less pass-freshs on the field, things like that. But that's a good point. If you put enough wide receivers out there, enough receivers out there, period, There are so few guys in the box that it probably limits what you can do from your defensive call perspective because they're just so spread out. Well, and that's why the personnel element to this game is so, so critical. Yeah. Because the Patriots are very much in terms of what that personnel can do.

The only safety is Durant Harmon. At times, we'll match up, not necessarily match up. And then we'll see. But I think Coleman and Freeman detached from the formation. meaning that they line. That to me is a very interesting element in this game. And I think Bill Belacard with a linebacker. And, you know, again, there's so many plays, you know, it's like in baseball, Robert. You know, when a guy pitches a good game, you always hear, well, he made one mistake because

a guy hit a home run. Well, no, he probably made ten mistakes. They just weren't hit for home runs. Yeah. Or maybe they were fouled off. It's the same thing in football. There's a lot of plays when I'm sitting watching tape where I go, well, that's a great concept. But, you know, with the left guard didn't make his block really well, and the quarterback couldn't quite get the ball to the guy. So it all depends on what happens

on these plays if we're speaking from personnel and their scheme and their concept. Yeah, that's interesting because that couple of guys I talked to you about Kyle Shanahan this week, excuse me, Andrew Hawkins from the Browns, especially said that every play Kyle dials up, he wants to score a touchdown. It's

not a, we're going to move the ball, you know, six yards on this play. They're designed to do that, and he knows exactly where it can go wrong. So I think we're just the minds, the, like, you said, the coaches against the coaches on this side is fascinating. And the other thing, I totally agree with you with the running backs. I feel like Coleman lined up in the slot against the guy like Shane McClellan or against a guy like Kyle Van Nuoy is going to come up mattering.

And then the other part I was looking at just kind of thinking about the game overall is that they're going to play some too high safety. It feels like the Falcons' ability to run the ball is going to come up more in this game than it has throughout the playoffs. Well, and that will be the issue for Bill Belichick. And my guess is, that he's telling his team and working through this with his foundational run. You can't stop now. They run that out of different personnel packages, differential run. So they're a team who I think relies more on the run game than the Patriots.

I think every game they come out and run the ball more. Yeah, I totally agree. And that's always been how Shanahan's offenses have been. That's how the offenses have been from the people that he's learned football from, period. So if the Patriots do want them to run the ball just based on formation, I feel like the Falcons be more than willing to oblige. So let's – oh, go ahead. No, I was just going to say, I mean, you walk a fine line there.

It's always easy to say, I mean, look, you know, Belichick, you can almost go back to the Super Bowl when he was the Giants defense in that game. And I forget the score, maybe 1916, or it was a low-scoring game when he essentially took the approach that, hey, if Thurman Thomas gets over 100 yards, We'll live with that. Again, I don't know if he'll take a similar approach. He could because you can't take away everything and very good concepts and schemes. So that's one of the fascinating elements to me in this game.

Not that he's going to say, hey, run for 20 yards. Of course, he's not going to say that. But again, tactically, you can't take away everything. No, and they've done such a good job of getting chunks on first down and just making sure. Right. I mean, Matt Ryan's yards per attempt on the season has been at least 7.9. in every single game. So if you look at that compared to the running game,

where the best you're going to do is say five or six yards of carry, wouldn't it just make sense on that simplistic of a level to say, we're going to make you beat us by running for six yards of carry? I mean, yeah, and you're right, that's simplistic. But you know what? We're going to design our defense. And it's not a matter of saying we're going to give them yards. What you're saying if you do that is we're going to design our defense

from a personnel and tactical standpoint to play the pass and to defend the path run as doesn't mean you're saying, hey, I hope they gain eight yards and we're okay with that. You're still defending the run. You're just defending. Totally. And then that puts a huge importance on guys like Alan Branch. He's playing very well. Everybody in that front.

And Malcolm Brown. Yeah. Yeah. And the linebackers as well. Because, I mean, that's the thing with the Falcons is that they're so good getting to the second level because they have guys like Alex Mack because their linemen can move. so those linebackers are just as important in that offense in that defense in terms of stopping the run. It's not just the front four.

No, but then you get down to, again, now it comes down to personnel. If they feel that against three wide receivers, they'll obviously be in either nickel or dime, depending on the down and distance, and then they have different players on the field. Kyle Van Nuoy will be on the field. He's not on the field in their base, and their base has really morphed into being what we call big nickel with three safeties. Yeah, that's, yeah, that's true. I mean, that's the thing. You bring it Harmon, and they have so many different things they can do to you,

and it's just, that's really excellent. I mean, that's what makes them so dangerous defensively. Let's move to the other side of the ball where I feel there's a lot of stuff that's being overlooked because this Falcons defense in general, one, I think, has come along really well over the second half of the season. I feel like a lot of those younger guys have settled in. If you watch that game, they played against Green Bay, they just did so many different types of things. The idea that Belichick is going to go against a simplistic Seahawks-esque defense in this game is beyond me. I think that for as many matchup problems as the Patriots can produce,

the Falcons have an intriguing set of guys that can kind of snuff those out in the right moments. Looked at it closely in Seattle of being produced that as a family. What they've gotten into much more this year is cover one, man-free, and pool blitzed off the slot, the slot corner, and he hit pretty good. They did not pick him up. And, you know, I think that they're a little more aggressive. They have, in a sense, built their defense personnel-wise in a similar fashion to the Seahawks. I mean, when he drafted Jones, he's a Bobby Wagner type.

You draft of Andre Campbell from Minnesota. He's a K.J. Wright type in terms of his length and is moving. Clearly, Keanu Neal is their version of Cam Chancellor. So he's looking for profile pieces, but he's playing more man-to-man coverage. Yeah, and I think that that's become a big part of what they did. That was a big part of what they did against Rogers. They were willing to send a little bit of extra heat. They didn't want to let him be comfortable back there.

And I feel like Dan Quinn in the playoffs has done a good job of seeing what other teams have done well and kind of taking a little bit of it. And you look at what those Brian Poolblitz is. That's exactly what the Cowboys did successfully a couple times. So I think that if you look at what Pittsburgh did last week, Dan Quinn is not going to just going to say, we're going to play zone and we're going to sit back. He's going to do an over-correction of that in my mind. And my question to you is, how do you think the Patriots respond?

Very difficult. Just give you one example. And again, I'm not copying out, but I don't know how they'll respond. And I'm going to be honest. This past week against Pittsburgh, okay? It was okay. 19. You know how many times they lined up with one back and four wide receivers

prior to the Pittsburgh game in this entire season? Ten. That's incredible. So in that game against Pittsburgh, they've showed. you a personnel package that they had used 10 times the entire season, and they did it 19 times for 19, for 138 yards. It was always James White, a receiver than Dionne Lewis. So is he going to do that in the Super Bowl?

Who knows the answer to that? Check in their approach answer. It's tough, and I've tried to think about what versions of the game I could imagine happening. And if you look at Atlanta, their speed is really what's helped them come along against the past that's been able to allow them to play a lot of man, but they struggle against the run pretty miserably still. And I'm trying to figure out if Belichick is going to say, let's go a little bit heavier,

just pound the ball, or let's spread them out and run it. Which way does he think the running game is going to be more effective? Because I think that's their best avenue to really gash them consistently. Well, what's very interesting about what you just said is, obviously, Garrett Blunt has not had a ton of runs. Yep. of three wide receiver personnel packages, but he's had a good

amount, and that's his most successful runs. He's averaging over five yards of carry. When he runs the ball, what we call 11 personnel, meaning three wide receivers, that's where he's had his most sick that's running the ball. So that's an intriguing element to this

game as well. And the thing is, when they play those base personnel packages, when they go to 22 and Devlin is in the game, that's when they like to throw the ball. That's the thing about the Patriots is that they really do such a good job of manipulating you into thinking they want to do one out of either a spread-out personnel formation or really bunched-up one, when in reality they're probably doing that to make sure you respond in the correct way,

and then they're going to zig where you think they're going to zag. So I'll be curious to see whether they do that. In that way, both teams are similar because the Falcons will play Pat DeMarco. In fact, the Falcons during the regular season ran the ball, 100th percent of all package, fullback, but that doesn't necessarily mean, Robert, he's in the backfield. You know, we've seen DeMarco split. We see James Devlin split, you know, really good with their formation of versatility out of 21 personnel, meaning two backs with the fullback on the field. Yeah, absolutely. And you saw that a couple times last week.

Devlin caught a passwall split out, which is kind of like when you're a bad three-point shooter, but sometimes if somebody's going to leave you open, you have to hit one, just because you have make them pay attention to you. That's what it reminded me of when they threw it to Devlin out there. And then you saw what kind of impact DeMarco had. I mean, he had that long catch on the first drive. And then there was a beautiful play later in the game where Ryan hit Julio over the middle. And DeMarco kind of bending into the flat and keeping Haha Clinton Dix there was a huge part of the play. And that's what both of these two offensive coordinators who, and you could probably say are the two best in football. I wouldn't disagree with you. Each of them does an incredible job of understanding.

every single receiver in the formation on the field has a role in how all these pieces are going to fit together. It's not just having the fullback out there to have them out there. How can I make him affect the game in a positive way? And that's why these coaching staffs are so good, because that's how they think. It's every inch of grass, it's all 22 guys and how they manipulate each other. And it's going to be fascinating. Yeah, no, I mean, look, unfortunately we've not had phenomenal games in the playoffs, but this one I'm really looking forward to.

I would have a tough time thinking right now that this game's 1613, but of course you never know. But I think both offenses against the opposing defense to me is really the fascinating chess match. I totally agree. Greg, that's all we got. I really appreciate the time. I really appreciate you coming on. This is always fun, and hopefully we can talk again down the road.

Robert, I appreciate it. Thank you. Talk to you later. All right, before we get to Jonathan Jones, let's hear from a couple of our sponsors. goes into the season without a gameplay. If they did, game day highlights would be nothing more than a football follies compilation. And while follies are hilarious, Buffalo Wild Wings knows, fans prefer the taste of glory on game day. The kind of glory that comes with having 21 signature sauces and seasonings to choose from. Or a great lineup of cold and refreshing beers on tap. Or a collection of

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home. We've been hanging out in Atlanta for a while, just kind of being around the Falcons. Jonathan I've thrown an excellent piece last week that we're going to talk about. The headline is Atlanta Rising, the Falcons and their fan base embark on a new era. You can read it on SS.com. And it really is just this team in general. When you look at New England, and I'm not saying the Patriots are boring, obviously they're not boring. They're fascinating in like a hundred different ways. But we know the Patriots so well.

And they've been around for so long. And that includes their fan base, the way their fan base views their players, the way their fan base views themselves. And the Falcons could not be more different. because this is a team going to its second Super Bowl. And it's not just that this team is different from the one that went to the Super Bowl 98. It's that over that stretch and over really their entire history as a franchise, from the Seabarkowski era to the dirty birds to when Arthur Blank bought the team,

we've had so many different iterations of them. And this one is distinct. And it's happened at a time when the city is also undergone a huge change. And that's what you wrote about. And I'm curious, over the course of your reporting, over the course of working on it, What's the thing that stuck out to you the most? What's the thing that you're like, wow, that's so incredibly fascinating to me? Yeah, so I think it was just how fractured the city was for so long.

Like, you know, I was, I'm from North Carolina, so I was living in the Charlotte area during the Vick years. And I knew, you know, obviously what Vic meant to me as someone growing up watching the NFL and seeing someone who looked like me who was doing things that really no one else had, had done before on a football field and who had these sneakers and like, you know, football players don't have sneakers, like he had sneakers, right? And so it really was amazing. And then you are, so if you transpose that idea to Atlanta, what had to be like here and how much, how exciting it was and how Atlanta being a majority black city with a real black quarterback, what that had to be like in the early to mid-2000s. And then what, how much of a gut punch it was.

and then to understand that a lot of the Atlanta fans, and what I'm saying by that is a lot of the black Atlanta Falcons fans thought that the Falcons may not have handled Vic's departure in the right way. Obviously, he was guilty. He pleaded guilty. But before he pleaded guilty, when guilt or innocence was not yet known, a lot of Falcons fans thought that maybe the Falcons washed their hands with Michael a little too early, that they didn't stand up in a press conference and say,

we're behind Michael 100% we're going to see this through as the process plays out. They didn't do that. And that rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. And so you saw a fracture in the Falcon fan base for what happened to be, you know, the better part of a decade. And so now we're starting to really kind of see this ceiling. And it's been a long time coming. It's not that everyone was hurt back in August and now during the Super Bowl, it's okay. You know, it happened over time.

But I thought that was the most interesting part to me. Totally. And you think that Matt Ryan is a huge part of that and just his presence right after Michael Vick left. And the fact that his, the love this city has had for him and the appreciation they've had for him has wavered. You know, there have been times where it feels like they did not want him here, and especially last year where it's not that they were trying to run him out of town, but they could have, in their minds, they could have been good better at quarterback. And now it's kind of interesting that he's the MVP of the league and he's a guy getting MVP chance. And it does feel like when you win, when you have a team that style. realistically looks like this one, it's a little bit easier to talk yourself into it. I mean, it does cause that fracturing to not heal necessarily, but to come together a little bit more than it would have if you have a different sort of team even that's this good. Yeah, right. And I think what the nation is going to learn this week and certainly next week is there are some personalities on this team.

And you wrote about it over the summer about Julio, who is a quiet, great NFL receiver. Like if he wanted to be this diva, this what we have come to know wide receivers as, if he wanted to be Chad Johnson, I think a lot of people would be quicker to say he's the best wide receiver in the NFL, whether, you know, we can argue about him or Antonio Brown. But I think if he put himself out there a little more, he doesn't want that. You know, Matt Ryan, we've talked to him the past several weeks. Like he is, he's an interesting guy, but he's not going to give you this glimpse into his soul. But they have so many interesting characters along the way. I think that this, week and next week folks are going to be like, you know what? I'm kind of tired of reading about Tom Brady and Bill Belichette. Let me find out about these Falcons. I think they're going to find some cool stories about it. I always like to, you know, and I'm not around a team. Obviously, I've been around the Falcons a little bit recently, but when I am talking

people that are constantly there, who do you think in that locker room has more of a presence than we probably gave it credit for before we'd spent time with a team? In the locker room? Yeah, just like somebody that carries more weight than you would have thought. Yeah, I mean. Certainly, Freeney is kind of the first name that comes up, and all these guys keep talking of Freeney and how much of a veteran he's been. I think I got like Jonathan Babineau, who may not make himself all that available in the locker

room all the time, but he's the most tenured Falcon, right? He's been here since 2005, I think. He's that quiet, steady presence who's been through those ups and downs that I talked about in that story from, you know, from the height of the Vic years to Bobby Petrino, leaving a note in his locker through the Mike Smith years to now. So probably Babinell if I had to pick him. That's a good point. I mean, he's the only guy there that got that note, that very, very short note that I absolutely,

the fact that that happened is still amazing. And I think my favorite part of it is how pissed off Mike Zimmer still is about it. When anyone brings it up, it just seems like he wants to end Bobby Petrino, which I've always appreciated. It really is amazing that people send their children to go play for that man. I know. what he did in Arkansas. Like how does the mother sit in there and be like,

yeah, I'm going to spend my son to see you, Bobby Petrino? Oh, it's so true. It's so, so, so true. Yeah, the, the Jonathan Babineau-free thing is interesting because the makeup of the defense overall is kind of weird because you have so many young, young guys, and then you have two really old guys. There are very few guys in the middle.

I don't know if there's any 30-year-old players on the Falcons defense, period. And I think that that's actually a good mix because you have those steadying presences and then you have an absurd amount of young talent and young speed. And it just makes for a pretty good product at this point. It took while to get here, but they're playing pretty well. Yeah, and I think we're going to see that defense evolve over time. What kind of led to Mike Smith's ultimate departure, I think, was that they just didn't have the talent. They didn't have the hospital defense.

So then we saw over the next couple of drafts, what they spent it on the first and second rounders were both defense. We look at Big Beasley, look at Dionne Jones, you know, a couple of other guys. And so now I think we're starting to see what the plan was for Demitra. They won an offense. They're going to build around that offense. The offense this season is obviously going to carry the defense. But what they won, I think, in the future is obviously with Dan Quinn is a little more balanced. And so we're going to see those guys as they get into their second contract.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if that's in the late first round, these guys go defense once again for the third straight time. Yeah. And there aren't a lot of pieces on offense that you feel like you need. The only thing you're probably going to lose is your offensive coordinator, which is a problem in and of itself. You know, I think that his hand in all of this can't be understated. It's going to be really interesting when they come back next season with essentially the same group, whether or not they'll be able to maintain. Because it's not just that you can dial up the same plays.

You can draw them the same way. This offense is about more than that. Yeah, absolutely. I've been thinking about that all week is like, yeah, you got Taylor Gabriel. now. You have Devonthe and you have Calvin in the back and you've used them so well back there. And like these pieces like Dimitrov

and Shanahan, they understand that it is about the, you know, it's not necessarily about the players, it's about the players and so, you know, they have these pieces but now they have to make these pieces fit with what will ultimately be a new offensive coordinator. And I don't think that we've really looked ahead to see who the Falcons could

pick up as an offensive coordinator or if they will hire from within on that. But that's an interesting point to me is, yeah, this offense is clicking top 10 all time in terms of points. But even with the same pieces next year, will they have the same production without Shanahap? Yeah, it really is just one of those things where if you can, you try to maintain continuity as much as you can.

You'll probably promote someone from the staff that knows the offense. That would be my guess. Or you'll try to go get someone that really will implement the same thing. You'll almost guarantee they'll make you, you'll make them guarantee you that they'll do the same thing. But that doesn't always guarantee that it's going to. to work. It doesn't necessitate that it's going to be the same exact offense just from a feel perspective. So I think we should celebrate the Falcons if they do win instead of looking ahead

and saying, oh, shoot, it's over. But it still is just something to keep in mind. Yeah. No, it is. It's just like Denver. Like, you know, they're in this position now, but so what? They got another Lombardi trophy. Like, if Atlanta can bring home their first Lombardy, like, yeah, they'll worry about 2017 later on. Yeah, exactly. So one other thing I wanted to ask you about that I It was a pressing question. Has it always been weird to you that Ludacris wanted to have sex on the Georgia Dome while they were kicking a field goal? It just seems like there's way more exciting things that could be happening. I wish I would have actually broken down exactly what was going on.

I'll tell you this funny story because I could not fit it into my story. So I'm falling around Ludacris during his halftime performance at the divisional round game against Seattle. And Usher is there, and he's also from Atlanta. So, like, Falcon's entertainment's trying to get Usher to go on and perform, yeah, with ludicrous and they'll pipe in a little John, you know, oh, yeah, we'll pay you some money, don't worry about it. Well, Usher, who appears to be inebriated. Like, he grabs the game ball on the sideline, and he's just kind of talking in the air, you know, handling it a little bit. And then all of a sudden the sets over, and they walk out, and Usher just takes the game ball with him. And so if there was a missing game ball from the divisional round game,

it is because Usher just up and took it at half time. That's one of the things I appreciated the most about that story is just that you thought to try to talk to Ludacris knowing he would be there. And then he gave you really good stuff. He was so insightful. I was like, man, Ludacris is really into this. Yeah, I mean, we talked for like, I don't know, maybe 10 minutes. And he was awesome.

And we talked about Atlanta rap and the evolution of it. He was like, yeah, you know, I appreciate what the young guys are doing. Now, that doesn't mean I listen to all of it or I have to like all of it, but I'm not going to talk bad about him because nobody taught bad about me from Atlanta when I was coming up. It's so great. Yeah, it's a fun moment. I feel like it's just for the city, for the franchise, you know, for players like Matt Ryan. And even guys like Julio, we know Julio's great, but it's fun that Julio Jones gets this stage

because he always deserve to be a guy we talk about with everybody else. And now he gets to prove it. He gets approved against Belichick and the guy that probably has the best chance of shutting him down. I thought it was funny yesterday, Kyle Shanahan, saying that he laughed when people said the Patriots defense is overrated. So it's the best defense we've seen this year. And I think that that makes for a matchup that couldn't be more interesting. Yeah. And we all know that Belichick, he obviously has always seemed to take away to the opponent's best player.

And clearly the opponent's best player is Silio Jones. But, you know, that's the thing about these Falcons is they have. won plenty of games and probably should have won even more games. We think about the Chargers game. We think about the Chiefs game from the regular season, where Julio only had a couple of catches for, you know, 45 yards or whatever. But then an Austin Hooper steps up. Taylor Gabriel has a big day.

Mohammed's Benu was clicking there early on against the Packers. Like, it's not that they have a bunch of household names that will just completely take you over. But Shanahan has schemes. Like, all right, you guys want to take away, Julio. We have the speed. We have some guys out of the backfield. a team that can beat you without Julio. Yeah, absolutely.

It's going to be worth watching. All right, man, that's all we got. I really appreciate you doing this. I will see you in like an hour again. Sounds good, brother. Appreciate it. All right. See you.

We're now welcome by the founder of Football Outsiders.com. Aaron Schatz, thank you for coming out and doing this. Always appreciate it. Hey, thanks for having me on. It's always good to do with you and the ringer. And let's dig into just all the numbers surrounding what I think is a fascinating Super Bowl. I want to start with the Falcons offense just because when you look at so much of what

they've done on a standard numbers, from a standard numbers perspective, points per game, or just that yards per play, everything that we usually use to measure an offense, they've been great. When you look at it a little bit more complexity, the way you guys do, are they as good as we think they are? The Falcons, yes, the offense is even better than we think it is, to be honest. Atlanta played the second hardest schedule of opposing defenses this year. And that was, it was first for a while.

Did they get knocked off at the end with New Orleans? Yeah, it was first for a long time, and then they played New Orleans, a final, New Orleans was a terrible defense. But Carolina and Tampa were both top 12 defenses. The AFC West, mostly good defenses other than Oakland, the NFC West. And this is something, by the way, that the Patriots that Falcons have, in common. They both played the NFC West this year. Well, the NFC West this year was four teams that were really good on defense and really bad on offense, except for the

Seahawks for some of the season. So everybody who played the NFC West this year ended up with offenses that didn't look as good as they really were and defenses that looked better than they really. Yeah. I mean, that's, that really is. And that's, and it's not even just that. It's that they played a really good slate of defenses, and when they didn't play a good defense, they absolutely destroyed them. And I think that's the mark of a good team. You know, you guys have talked about this for years. You need to beat up the teams that are worse than you. And that's what they did.

It wasn't just that they had a couple blips of 40-point games. It's that whenever they played a defense as even slightly below average, they absolutely destroyed them. Right. Although for most of the season, that only went one way, right? I mean, 45 against the same. but they let the stand score 32. 48. Against the Panthers, three.

Now, at the end of the season, the defense improved a bit. So you have the Rams, 421, 14. The 49ers, 41, 13. The playoffs, the defense has played well because those are much better offensive teams, Green Bay and Seattle with Wilson Healthy, and they allow just 20 and 21. The thing is, the Patriots defense

has been gradually improving throughout the year. Whereas the Falcons defense was pretty much bad all year so you get to, like, mid-December, and then it gets better. And even there, by our numbers, in the last five games, the Atlanta defense has not been as good as the Patriots defense. But the Atlanta offense is so good that it helps even things out a little bit. And when you break it down even further with the Falcons, it's interesting. You sent me these numbers last week when I was writing about the Falcons defense. They were 11th in past defense DVA over the second half the season. and 32nd run defense, which makes sense.

Because you lose a guy like Adrian Claiborne, but the guys in your defense that are young are the guys in the back end, the faster guys. So it makes sense that their run defense would get worse with the personnel they've lost and their past defense would get better. And I think some of it is also maybe playing more nickel. You know, that makes it easier to run on you.

It's really interesting. You know, Desmond Truffant, the eye test, the film watching scout test, Desmond Truffon is their best corner. Yes. But that past defense improved when Desmond Truffant went out. And by our charting over the last couple of years, Truffant doesn't come out better than Robert.

They come out about the same. The thing about the run defense, I will say, though, for the Falcons, is that in the two playoff games, it's been really good. Now, I mean, it helps the Pipe's we took the running game away from Green Bay last week, and then Green Bay had off a line entry. but they also really slowed down Thomas Rawls the week before. The one thing the Falcons have been really susceptible to is quarterback scrambles, but that is not really a worry unless the first two New England quarterbacks are interested.

Let's talk about the Patriots a little bit. If you take out the first four weeks where Brady wasn't playing, how much does it affect their overall offensive numbers? Oh, it absolutely does tremendously. And most of that, by the way, is for set. I mean, Garoppolo did not play as well as people think in the first week, to be honest. But some of that is that the Arizona defense is, you know, really good. But Brissette was not that good, even in the big win over Houston.

And then, of course, terrible in week four against Buffalo because he had a hurt. But if you take those four games out of – if you take those four games out of the year, and you look just at the regular season, the Patriots have the best offense in the league. It's not leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the league. If you look at just weeks 5 through 17, the Patriots are 26% above average. The Falcons are 24% above average,

and the Cowboys 22% above average. The real improvement when you take out the first four weeks is not the Brady games with Brady. It's the defense being better because the defense just wasn't good in the first four weeks, except against Houston. and you know, Osweiler, so aster. Yeah, it's interesting.

What would you attribute the Patriots defense improvement to? Because it's not as if they got somebody back necessarily. It just feels like they've stayed healthy and they understood how the pieces fit together by the end. Their flexibility really is shown up a ton lately. It's hard to figure out exactly what the cause is without a lot of intricate film study, which I will admit is not my area of expertise. There's definitely, I think, a sense of knowing how the parts fit together.

better. There may be something to the idea that Jamie Collins that they felt that he improvised too much because so much of the Patriots defense is about guys doing their jobs. I mean, it's a slogan, but it really is what they do.

And not all great defenses do that, by the way, right? The greatness of the Ravens' defense has often been about when players improvise. That's why the Ravens, like, lateral on turnover returns more than anybody else over the last 10 years. like the Ravens aren't great because everyone does their job.

The Ravens tend to be great because everybody like improvises it does amazing things. The Patriots are great because everyone does their job. So maybe that ability and the fact that this team has been quite healthy over the course of the year other than Bruncowski. It's remarkable. The defense in particular has been quite healthy. They also, I think, moved Logan Ryan to the slot more, used more of Erica Rowe on the outside. They also started to introduce a little bit more. more blitzing. They have this cornerback

blitz with Logan Ryan that's been really good for them over the last few weeks. And by the way, Atlanta was very susceptible to defensive back blitzes this year according to ESPN stats and info charting. And so I bet we'll see that play a couple of times.

If you think about it, it makes sense that when you look defensive back, you keep away from Alex Mack, right? Normally you think, oh man, bring interior pressure, but I don't know if that's going to work the best against the Falcons because Alex Mac is so Yeah, he really is. I'm assuming he will, even though he didn't practice for the first week.

Yeah, I'm guessing he's playing in Julio too. If you're looking at this Patriots team, I guess just the offense compared to other ones we've seen, is it in the conversation with a unit like 2011 or is that just totally on a different plane? No, totally on a different plane. Okay. In 2007 and 2011 offense for the Patriots, and 2010 I will add as well, even though that team was upset by the Jets in the playoffs. are among the best offenses we've ever tracked in BBOA for, you know, whatever,

30 years of numbers that we're going to have soon once we debut the 86 to 88 numbers over the next few weeks. So this is a good offense, very good, but it is not historic in the same way those others are. And by the way, even though Atlanta had all these points in yards, they are not a historically top 10 offense either. They ran a ton of plays. Yeah. Their games had a lot of plays. because the other teams were scoring a lot,

and therefore the ball was going back and forth. Atlanta had to score late in the games. They didn't run the clock out as much. But it is the best offensive this year, absolutely. And on a points per drive basis, they're very, very good. I mean, that's what I looked at the other day. It was really up there with the 07 Patriots were the only teams that were better over the last 20 years or so.

So I thought that was pretty impressive. They score when they get the ball. Right. I think the flip of that is that there were a few too many turnovers for them to be a really historically great whereas like, for example, the Patriots, you know, Tom Brady would throw like three or four picks in a year or this year two

and then two in the playoffs before, but you know what I'm saying. If you're looking at, last thing I'll ask you, if you're kind of checking out just individual numbers where these teams are good and bad, is there one area do you think that will come back and haunt them, something that the other team can really take advantage of? Well, I mean,

look, if you look over the course of the year, the Falcons defense is just not good. That run defense, I'll bet we see a lot of Dionne Lewis early and blunt late. We're going to see them run against the Falcons. The Patriots are much more sort of balanced. They're not as good on offense as the Falcons are. But the defense has been better over the course of the year. I think the biggest thing here is pass rushes, right?

Because we're so used to the importance of a great pass rush. And last year especially, you know, not the Super Bowl, Carolina and Denver, and those were two really great pass rushes. These are not two great pass rushes. This is one great pass rusher. The Patriots, you know, okay, Trey Flowers will get there sometimes, or Chris Long, or they'll scheme something like the cornerback lists where you get to the quarterback, but they're near the bottom of the league and the justice back rate.

Atlanta, my God, the pass rush is almost entirely Vick viz. There are a lot of pressures from Dwight Freeney when he comes in, but, which I mean, people forget Dwight Freeney is on this team. It's hard to remember that he's there, but Dwight Freeney is still in the league and he's on this team and he might win a second Super Bowl ring. But other than that,

there's really not a lot of pass rush here. So, I mean, I think the Patriots will need to blitz to bring a lot of pressure, which, I mean, Ryan's numbers this year, he did do better against three or four pass rushers than he did against the blitz. It's interesting. The Patriots rush three.

more than any team in the league. And that is not a good strategy against Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, 10.4 yards per play best in the lead when the opponent rushed three. That's crazy. But if they blitz a little bit more than they are used to, that is more likely to get it. Here's another one from looking at TBOA breakdown versus types of receivers. Atlanta's big weaknesses this year were against slot receivers. and running backs in the passing game.

Brian Poole is a nice story as an undrafted free agent who plays Nickelback for them, but he's not particularly good by NFL standards. And, of course, Patriots love to spread it around to those spot guys. And as far as the running back, of course, James White, Dionne Lewis, certainly able to have big games. The Patriots struggles against receivers were more sort of spread out around, spread around the field, which kind of works for the Falcons because what made their offense work so much this year is spreading the ball around.

Like Julio Jones is always good. What made the offense better was the ability to find Gabriel and Sunu and Austin Hooper when they were open. Totally. All right. That's all we got. Aaron, again, I always really appreciate the time. I know you got a lot going on this time of year.

And we'll chat soon. Enjoy the game. Absolutely. I will. People should remember to check out the ball. outsiders because a couple of days after this podcast goes up, there'll be a gigantic stat pack Super Bowl preview. Just because it's not there now.

It doesn't mean it won't be there next third. It is invaluable stuff. Always check it out. I mean, it's one of the resources that I totally lean on all the time. And we appreciate the work you guys do. All right. I'll talk to you soon. Be well, man.

All right, that's all we got today. Thank you so much to Greg, to Jonathan, to Aaron. We wanted to give you guys a little bit of a well-rounded view of the game. Hit the numbers, hit some of the scouting, talk about some of the personnel. and just the stakes that we have going on here. We'll be back next week with a lot of our regularly scheduled programming. You know, we'll have Kevin and Danny back. We may have some extra shows for you just because of the Super Bowl week.

But as always, we sincerely appreciate you guys listening and talk to you soon.