The Ringer NFL Show - Ep. 71: Super Bowl Stats of Note, Possible Heroes, and Keys to Victory With Mike Lombardi

Episode Date: February 1, 2017

The Ringer's Robert Mays and Danny Kelly preview the Super Bowl and discuss the use of running backs in the passing game (3:15), the importance of play-action in the Falcons offense (12:20), Dan Quinn's history against the Pats (18:20), and a surprising possible MVP (26:30). Then, Mike Lombardi joins the show to discuss Belichick's likely initial game plan (28:45), stopping Julio Jones (34:00), and how the teams' roster usage and formational flexibility will be a key to victory (47:20). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Ringer NFL show. My name is Robert Mays. I'm a writer at the ringer. Joining me on the other line. Danny Kelly, Danny, how are you? I'm doing great, man. How are you doing? I'm good, man.

We're here. This is happening. It's a little different than normal. We're doing this on Wednesday as opposed to Friday just because it's a big week. So we're trying to jam pack it with shit. But this is our deep dive freaking Super Bowl preview, nitty-gritty all the way. Let's nerd the fuck out show. Absolutely.

I mean, this is like the perfect matchup, too, in terms of just two great strategic, you know, coaching staffs. It's going to be awesome. It's exactly what you'd want as somebody who loves matchup porn and guys going against each other and coaches, exploiting coaches, everything else. So we're going to be welcome by Michael Embardi a little bit later, our newest addition to the Ringer team, which is extremely exciting. And I cannot be looking more forward to talking football with him. But first, it's me and you, buddy. Let's do it. Old Staples.

We're going to do this how we've always done it. So, again, like you said, there really is no better matchup for teams that are so good at finding what another team's deficiency is and really exploiting it. And if you look at it on offense especially with both of these offenses, you have two groups that have such a varied collection of talent. New England loves just using formations as a way to get teams and the personnel packages they want them in. They'll go big to throw the ball. They'll use their backs in every single way. And if you look at Atlanta, it's the same kind of deal. I wrote about Kyle Shanahan this week for the Ringer,

and I looked at this Green Bay game, and it took them 27 plays to use the same formation twice. Oh, my God. And that's just what you're looking at with this team. 27 plays and 22 minutes of game time to use the same formation again. And that includes some motions and everything else. But both of these teams love coming out with 11 guys in the huddle, having another team guess what it's going to look like when they line up,

and having that team be completely wrong. Well, I mean, like, if you, that is, such a great point too because i mean as a defender you're taught to look for tendencies and in habits and the other team you know so like when they come out in a certain formation down and distance then that's like you're supposed to connect those together and kind of know what they're doing but 27 straight different formations like imagine having to memorize like what that means in any given situation like there there's just so many permutations and i think that's why they're so just impossible to predict

So before we get into kind of our individual segments that we've been doing, Danny, when you say that this is the matchup you most wanted to see, what is the reason? What are the specific matchups that you think you're most interested in looking at? I think the thing that's most interesting to me about both teams really is how they use their running backs in the passing game. You know, it's just they can do so many different things with the fact that they've got these guys that can both run the ball effectively. You know, they're good running backs, which is key. and then they also have the ability to go and motion out to the wing exploit matchups out there

as de facto receivers and both teams have guys like that and so I think to me that's just exciting it's all part of sort of the chess match it's how are they going to do this how are they going to get the defense into the personnel that they want and then exploit it

so I think to me just that ability for both teams to do that such a high level is so cool. I totally agree. So let's use that as a way to jump off to one of our first stats of notes that I wanted to throw out there. So 22.06 percent, that is the target share given to Atlanta's running backs this year. It was the sixth highest in the league. So almost a quarter of Atlanta's passes go to running backs, which is a ton.

I mean, just think about that. But what I'm looking at most with Atlanta and how they use those guys, isn't just they throw it to them a lot. It's the ways they throw it to them, and the ways they throw it to them, and the places they line up before they do. So going back and watching a lot of Patriots games over the last couple of days or so, you don't see that many teams use running backs as wide receivers against the Patriots.

I don't know why. I don't know if it's just because Belichick's really good, snuffing that stuff out. I didn't see it pop up that often. And that's what you're going to see with Atlanta. So I feel like one of the things Atlanta has to kind of measure and come between here is, do we want to use a lot of four-wide or empty sets

where we motion Freeman and Coleman out in order to get the Patriots in situations they're not used to while sacrificing our ability to run the ball. Because Atlanta wants to run to throw. They want to use play action, all that kind of stuff. And if you motion those guys out, if you use a lot of shotgun, you lose that ability to have that outside zone look, be the basis of your offense to get to your passing game. So I think them trying to split the difference of those two ideas of let's make sure we get a ton of receivers on the field to keep New England's linebackers in coverage and really make them chase the Coleman's and the Freeman's

while not sacrificing our ability to be who we are, which is an outside zone running team that likes throwing play action off of that. Yeah. And that's exactly what it's all about it. I think, you know, I brought in a couple of stats that I found interesting, and they all, I mean, a big chunk of them relate to the play action game for the Falcons. And I think, like you said, that's where it starts for them. that's what they want to do they want to run the ball make you know new england's two you know two deep

safeties creep up into the box start anticipating the run and then throw it over their head and so um i saw that 44% of the times of falcons through the ball this year uh that was in non three wide reset so like two two two backs or two tight ends so almost half the time yep almost half the time they're throwing it was from their quote run sets you know and so and that's the staff from ESPN's Mike Clay. And I just think that kind of tells the story of the Falcons offense a little bit and the fact that they're not like a three-wide, like spread them out, typical type team. I think they'd really like to, you know, get heavy, use their tight ends,

use that fullback and, you know, set up play action for, you know, either run or set out their play action for deep shots. I totally agree. But it's interesting. I bet that stat doesn't account for how many. times two tight ends were in the game and lined up in weird spots. So I think that's what you're going to see a lot of. I feel like you're going to see a lot of Hooper lined up out wide and, you know,

Taylor Gabriel inside in the slot and trying to move guys around. That's what they do extremely well. Obviously the Patriots are absurdly well, coach. They're going to be ready for all of those things. But I'll be curious to see how much Atlanta tries to line up with the Marco, with Freeman, with maybe one or two tight ends, but then spread them out after they get there. That's going to be something interesting to watch for me. I don't know the answer is.

I honestly think we could see a lot. lot of Coleman and Freeman in the game at the same time in order to give yourself the matchup problems while still giving you a chance to run the ball. Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. It wouldn't surprise me if they kind of get kind of weird and do new stuff that we haven't really seen a lot. You know, Coleman is, you know, a de facto receiver. I mean, we saw what he did against the Broncos. That was kind of, to me, like, that was kind of his, you know, coming out game. Yeah. We were like, whoa, this guy can do some shit in the passing game. I mean, we all or you kind of knew it, but that was like, wow.

And so I keep thinking about that game. And, I mean, you know, that's a very, very disciplined. The Broncos are one of the best, if not the best past defenses in the NFL, and they were able to shred them using their running backs. And so I kind of look at this game like that in the sense that I think the Patriots are very disciplined. They're a very good past defense, have some, you know, very high quality guys. And I wrote about this week that, you know, they're very versatile. They can play the run and they can,

in the end they can cover and that is huge against a team like the falcons who you know like we talked about like to set up set up their play action game through the run so you have to have guys on the defense that can do both and the patriots have those guys so I think just in matchups like like we talked about earlier I mean this is like matchup porn or whatever this is I mean like this is the defense I think that's built to play an offense like this and so they have they might have actual chance to stop kind of what has has been an unstoppable offense for months now. I totally agree.

And just coming, moving forward, Kevin Coleman's my hero of the day for the Falcons. I just think that he needs to have a huge game, and it's for a couple different reasons. It's that he needs to be a factor in the passing game like we're talking about, but also thinking about the running game. You know, Freeman's such a good inside runner, and when they run some inside zone stuff,

his vision is fantastic. But when you watch the outside zone really stretch it out plays they run, Coleman's really dangerous at those. And he run, they use those a lot in second, down and like middle and long with Coleman more than the new with Freeman. If you look at Coleman's carry kind of spread, the trajectory of his carries, about one tenth of Coleman's carries came on second to middle and long, you know, traditional passing downs.

Freeman, it's not even almost like that. It's about 150 on first and 10 and then it's spread out kind of equally after that. So I think they like using Coleman and when they think they're going to pass and in spots where they catch people off guard. And then when you look at how the, well, the Patriots defended the run last, week against the Steelers. It's allowing Branch especially to just post up and control guys. But if you're running those outside zone plays with Coleman, it's the opposite of that.

You're really getting guys on the move. You're making those big guys for the Patriots cover a ton of ground. And I think that we haven't seen them try. We haven't seen them have to defend an offense like that that moves laterally to this degree like the Falcons do. Yeah. That's a great point. I mean, the idea of that wide zone is, You want the defense to either, one, not flow towards the sideline enough and then bounce it outside and get downfield.

Or two, like overcompensate and get too far down the line of scrimmage or whatever and then cut it back. So, I mean, I just picture, you know, watching the Seahawks run the ball. It's the same sort of idea. It's like you want all those linemen to get all bunched up. and lose their gaps because they're moving so fast down the line. That's the whole key to the zone blocking game is, you know, like all the defensive linemen kind of get bunched up and run into each other and get held up and all this.

And so it totally destroys any gap integrity. And so, yeah, if they can do that and run the ball, I think that's going to be huge for them because the Patriots have been really, really good at making teams one-dimensional. I mean, we saw them, you know, it was like 54 yards for the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. They basically shut down that run game. Even, you know, Levy on Bell was out. But DeAngelo Williams is a really good running back, too.

So that was very, very impressive. And I don't know if they'll be able to do that to the Falcons. Yeah, I totally agree. And the Falcons run that really weird toss outside zone play, too, with Freeman. That really gets guys on the move. I could see that three or four times. They ran it twice against the Packers. I feel like that could be a huge staple of what they're doing.

Yeah, the toss sweep is awesome. And, I mean, they have athletic offensive linemen that can kind of get out there and get on the move. They've got good blocking receivers, too, which is the key. I mean, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu are both, you know, big guys that can kind of seal guys downfield. And on the toss, you know, toss sweep or whatever, that's key because you're getting a running back out there against corners and, you know, outside linebackers. And so, yeah, I mean, that's huge. I love that play.

I think, yeah, the run game, to me, and this is kind of my hero of the game kind of relates to the run game, but it's a little different. I have Taylor Gabriel And again, it's it goes back to the play action game and I have the stat here. The Falcons ran play action more than any other team, 27% of their snaps. Ryan finished, Matt Ryan finished year. Yeah, isn't that crazy? He finished the year with 1,600 yards, 11.3 yards for attempt on play action with nine touchdowns. And I mean, again, it's kind of what we've been saying.

And it's like you establish that run. And I know that established run is kind of a cliche, but I think they actually have to do that and get the Patriots to really commit to stopping that by maybe bringing another guy into the box or whatever. And then, you know, just have Gabriel one-on-one on the outside or up the middle. And, you know, able to get deep past the defense, I think that could be killer. And, I mean, you tweeted out a really cool, I mean, it was in your Shanahan story too, but the play with the, I think it was Hooper who leaked out.

Yeah, the back side. Yeah, the throwback to the tight end coming backside on the wheel. Yeah, they do so many cool things with their tight ends too. Yeah. But I think in play action, I think that Gabriel is going to be key just because he has the speed to get downfield. And, you know, just kind of exploit defenses that are thinking as a run coming. And that's the thing with the Falcons, right? The reason that they're the best offense in the league is that you have to defend everything.

You have to be worried about everything. a good running team. It's not just that Matt Ryan's the MVP. So if you, and I think what the Patriots are going to do, I legitimately do. I feel like they're going to play a lot of too high and say, we're going to make you beat us with the running game. We're going to make you run us over because teams have not forced you to do that. We're going to make you out of physical us. And that's what the Falcons have to do. They have to start pushing them around. And if the Patriots do you go to one high, something like that, then you're going to see the Gabriel stuff. But that's the thing with the Patriots is that you know, how many plus yard passes the Patriots gave up this season?

How many? Five. On the season, five. The Falcons had 17, which led the league. So the Falcons, I mean, the Falcons are good for one of those a game, and that's the key. Can you limit one of those, can you take that one away? Can you make sure the Falcons don't have that game swinging play? And really no team is better set up to do that in New England.

We'll get into the nitty gritty who's going to cover who when I talked to Mike a little bit later. But just from a thought process perspective and what we're trying to take away, New England is always going with that. How they do it, we'll talk about a little bit later in the show. Absolutely. I mean, that's a huge stat. I love that stat. That's kind of like, I've seen people talk about it. Pete Carroll's talked about. I've heard other coaches talk about how explosive plays are related to scoring points and how there's a strong, strong correlation on. If you get an explosive play on any given drive, the odds of scoring on that drive, you know, jump exponentially. And for whatever reason, I mean, obviously,

you move the ball down the field, but there's also sort of, I think, like an emotional attachment to it. Totally. There's a fatigue. There's a, there, you get, I mean, you decimated emotionally as a defender. It's just like, man, we give them a monster and then they're going to come back. I mean, that's not surprising at all. Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, that's a, that's a really great stat. Only five deep throw. I mean, that's, that's just crazy. So, I think I'm with you on that, though. I think that they're going to play that too high. And, you know, so early on in the game, we'll see, like, If the Falcons can't run the ball, then I think the Patriots are in a good, good position. But if they start running ball, to me, that's where you're like, okay, so now what do they do? Now what are the Patriots going to do? And on the other side, I think we haven't talked about the Patriots offense at all.

And I think we probably should. I think the running games can be a big part of that too. If I'm building a hero today for New England, it's Legerat Blunt. I just think that when you watch the, when the games they played against Seattle, I went back and watch the Super Bowl, obviously the Seahawks under Dan Quinn and these Falcons are not a one-to-one compares. Like we need to understand that. But there's going to be a lot of similar principles. And I feel like when you watch a couple, we'll get into this in a second.

But when those Patriots teams played those Quinn Seattle teams, they were more than content to line up with six offensive linemen in heavy sets and just run it. They ran the ball with a garretel on a lot, both this year and in the Super Bowl. So I think that we're going to see that. We talked about this before. I feel like with how small Atlanta's defense is, how bad they've been against the run over the second half of the season especially. New England is going to be more than content to say we're going to get five, six yards of pop, whether it's Lewis, Blunt, whatever, and make you stop us in that regard. Yeah.

I was looking at the Patriots schedule. I actually almost picked Blunt too for my hero of the day for the Patriots. But I was looking at the Patriot's schedule. They haven't played a four three, like a true four three defense in a while. That's really interesting. If you look at their, if you look at their opponents, there's the Steelers, the Texans, the dolphins, the Jets, the Broncos, Ravens. And then you get into the Rams. I don't know, the dolphins, I guess, kind of run a four three.

Yeah, they do. I mean, it's like all, everybody's hybrid at this point. So it doesn't really matter. They're in those looks a lot, though. Yeah. And so you, I mean, you get back all the way to the Seahawks game, which was in week 10. And there's like maybe two, like, you know, one gaping four threes in there. And so, I mean, it's going to be, that to me is an interesting matchup just because, you know, it's just a different dynamic to run against a four front versus a three front or a two-gapping front versus a one-gapping front.

You know, so I think that's going to be really interesting. I thought that's why Blunt was so key as well, because I agree with you. I think they're probably going to go heavy in a lot of situations. You know, when they played the Seahawks, Blunt had three touchdowns. Yeah. So, you know, if he gets going, especially, like, deep in the red zone, and, you know, punches the ball in a couple of times. Like, that could really put the, you know, put the Patriots in a great situation

to kind of like just control the game. Totally. And the other couple things I took from watching the Seahawks games again. One, if you think that the Falcons are going to come up and play cover three this entire game or just be their normal Dan Quinn defense, you're kidding yourself. But there's absolutely no chance that they do that. They didn't do that when he was in Seattle. And they didn't even do that last week against Green Bay.

They've shown a willingness to be flex. because that's what good coaches do, by the way. And two, if you see them blitz three times all game, I'll be shocked. Yeah. Shocked. Yeah. I saw in that Super Bowl, then Blitz Brady twice. They just don't want to do that.

And I understand those Seahawks fronts are different than this Atlanta front, but they know, he knows especially if you blitz Brady, you're done, you're cooked. He's not going to do that. They're going to come with four. I think they're going to be creative in the ways they come with four. but they're going to come with four. Knowing they're going to be playing against the four-man front and a healthier amount of man than we typically see from Atlanta,

I think you're going to see some cool stuff on the outside with Edelman. You're going to see some stacks. You're going to see some plays designed to beat man coverage in a way we don't normally see against the Falcons because they don't play like that. Getting Edelman in space against the guy like J-O and Collins is a win for the Patriots, and I think you're going to see it a ton. Yeah, that's a great point.

That's really, really interesting. Yeah, I mean, that's got to me as another, really, really interesting thing to watch early on in the game. It's like, what are the Falcons doing on defense? My hero of the day for the Patriots is really out of left field. And I may end up looking really dumb on this. But I went with, and this is kind of a cop-out because, you know, we've seen Malcolm Mitchell and Michael Floyd both be inactive and one of each of the Patriots playoff game so far.

So I kind of combined them. So Malcolm Floyd. Who is also an NFL player? Malcolm Mitchell Okay, I'll go with a combination of Michael Malcolm Mitchell and Michael Floyd One of those guys I think could have a big game And there's a couple of reasons for that one

The Falcons struggled this year Against teams number three receivers And that's they weren't They're 29th in DVOA this year Against number three receivers They did a pretty good job A decent job against one and twos That's slot guys though right

Isn't that the thing? Like they struggle against guys in the slot more than anything else Yeah and so So I think if you like Edelman up in the slot. I think that could be the problem. I think, yeah, it kind of, it's, there's some, I don't know how they track it, football outsiders. I said there's some, you know, it's not a perfect science in terms of how they designate people one, two, or three. But the other reason I said, like these guys could

have a big game is just because when you force a team and it'd be the end three receiver sets. So, yeah, whoever they have in the slot would be key. But I think when you force the Falcon to play nickel, and they've played nickel, I think, about 70% of the time this year. And that's what Dan Quinn said this week. You have like six guys that are in their first or second season. And so it's on the field for them. So they're very inexperienced. I mean, they're very fast, very athletic, you know, run around and hit hard.

But they're very inexperienced in it and against Tom Brady and, you know, Belichick and like, you know, offensive masterminds like those two guys. like that is what kind of worries me. And so when I look at, you know, they're, when they spread it out a little bit, get, you know, obviously Edelman's out there,

but then they get other guys like Mitchell and Floyd. I could see them kind of factoring in more than, more than we might expect. I agree with you in some way. But I also think that by putting their big, heavy sets out there and like bringing Paul Worlow into the game, you know, that's what they don't want to do.

I feel like the Falcons are most comfortable in nickel. They want to be small. They want to be fast. When you make them go to the guys, they don't play normally, I think that's where they're going to be uncomfortable. So if you can get an extra linebacker on the field, bring Neil down, that's what I think Hogan could have a huge game. If you got Hogan working against Alford on the right side, the entire game,

without safety help, that just seems like it's a win for New England. I just think there are a lot of ways they can attack the Falcons in ways other teams have not. And it's just by being that team that has the big bodies to go at them. Man, yeah. I mean, this is why I think this is why it's so exciting. Right. Exactly. There's like 17 things we can talk about. I can't argue with your logic there. I mean, I had this, I had my argument kind of out and like played out in my head. And I was like, oh, that makes sense. But you're definitely making sense as well. I think there's just a lot of different things that, you know, just a lot of different, I guess, strategies that teams could use.

And I mean, that's just what makes this so much fun. And before we get out of here, I definitely want to chat about Longshot MVP's, which you wrote about for the ringer today. It's my favorite conversation every year with the Super Bowl. still am bitter that Camp Chancellor did not win it in that Bronco Super Bowl because he absolutely should have. And I picked him before the game. And I'm still mad about it. Well, I actually, I wrote that. I kind of,

if you haven't read my article, it's basically talking about how Malcolm Smith was the Super Bowl. I mean, like he was like a rotational weakside linebacker. I mean, he got benched for a part of that year just because he was like really terrible. And then he ended up being the Super Bowl MVP. And I totally agree with you.

I actually wrote originally. like Camp Chancellor should have been it but then I kind of just like deleted and I think we moved on from But that's correct. We should remind everyone at every single turn that camp chancellor should have been the MVP that year. It's absolutely true. I mean, if you look at,

this is kind of getting off track, but if you look at the huge hit he laid on Demeris Thomas, he had an interception. I mean, he just set the tone for that defense. He didn't allow the Broncos to do those crossing things that they love to do in the middle of the field. And so yeah, to me he was the MVP by far,

but whatever. So, yeah, the point, is though that you can get some weird ass MVP's going like just if especially with two teams whose offenses are you know so so diverse and and rely on different guys every week I mean that was another reason I kind of picked Malcolm Mitchell and Michael Floyd is like I mean how many people saw Chris Hogan having like 180 yards and two touchdowns last week or you know I mean I guess we kind of saw the Dionne Lewis thing coming but three touchdowns after you hadn't even scored a touchdown in the year so every week is like something different.

and the Falcons are exactly the same. So I think it really could be anybody this week. The guys I like just in terms of long shots, obviously this is going to be offense-heavy Super Bowl. I think in a way that eliminates receivers because the guys throwing them the ball are going to have better stats. If Julio has 180 and 2 scores, there's a good chance Matt Ryan is 320 and 3-3 scores.

They're going to give it to Matt Ryan. That's tough. So I think the guys worth looking at running backs, if it's run-heavy for New England especially. I think that Deanne Lewis at 33 to 1 is really interesting to me. I think that that's the one out that jumps out. He has better odds than Blount. And I think you could see, when I say that Blonde's my hero the day, it could easily be Lewis.

They're on the same place. So if they want to pound it, it could be Lewis and you get Lewis in the passing game. The one that is my favorite that just makes no sense to me is Dion Jones at 150 to 1. He has the same odds as Austin Hooper. and let me lay this out for you. Deanne Jones has two pick sixes this year, almost has a third one. He broke up 11 passes in the regular season.

He's around the ball more than any linebacker in the league. One thing we haven't talked about with the way that the Patriots have attacked Quinn Seattle-esque defenses in the past, Shane Verene had 11 targets in the Super Bowl when they played. He did it in a variety of ways. It wasn't just angle routes and stuff in man coverage. They tried to attack the flag. Lats against cover three a little bit with him.

But either way, they've thrown the ball to running backs a lot when they played these sorts of defenses. That means D.N. Jones is going to be around the ball a lot. For a guy that's that fast and plays that much and is that much for a part of this game plan, the fact that he has the same odds as Austin Hooper and worse odds than Malcolm Mitchell make no sense. That's a really good point. Okay, so I'm going, I like that one. And I'm going to go with a weird one too. And I'm going with Mohamed Sanu.

Right now he's, you know, plus 4,000. Is that 40 to 1? And here's my reasoning, and it's really funny and dumb, but I think they've been waiting to use him as a thrower. Oh, wow. I mean, one, they've used him a little bit as a wildcat offense guy, you know, like running the ball or whatever, and that makes teams prepare for that. I just am waiting for them to use him as like a wildcat guy or like an end-round guy and throw a touchdown. That's incredible. I love it.

That's your reason. I mean, if we're talking long shots, like if he throws a touchdown and catches one, like there's an MVP right there. That's so great. Because that takes away a Matt Ryan passing touchdown. All right. Exactly. All right, bud. What's your pick?

Let's hear it. Oh, man. I'm going with the Patriots. Just I think that they're more balanced. I think that, you know, the Falcons defense has been playing pretty well lately. But I think the Patriots match up really well against the Falcons is probably the toughest, you know, sort of challenge. the Falcons offense has seen in a while. And for me, it's just tough to pick against Brady and Belichick in the Super Bowl.

I just think, I don't know, man. It's a really tough call. And that's, again, that's the beauty of this game. But I'm going with Patriots. I don't blame you, man. All right, Danny, thank you so much. And that is it. That is a season-long wrap on Danny Kelly.

We will be back next week, probably. But pre-Super Bowl, that's all we got. Thanks, buddy. Thank you. All right, before we get to Mike Lombardi, let's hear from one of our sponsors. Go team goes into the season without a game plan. If they did, game day highlights would be nothing more than a football folly's compilation. And while follies are hilarious, Buffalo Wild Wings knows, fans prefer the taste of glory on game day.

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We do it for you because you're a football fan. And it is now my great pleasure to welcome Michael Mardi to the Ringer NFL show. His debut. Mike, thank you for doing this. No, no thanks. I'm excited to do it. It's very fun. This is just a chance for us to take our phone conversations and have them be recorded,

which I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but I'm looking forward to it. Yeah. No, I think it'll be a good thing. So what I wanted to chat with you about, you know, we really just nerded out very hard with me and Danny. But with you, I felt like a couple of the interesting things to address were when the Patriots, both Patriots and the Falcons kind of came in on Sunday night, Monday morning last week, what did they do? What were the first parts of those conversations?

When you start to build the game plan, what are the building blocks of it? So I want to start with New England. If you were the Patriots, if you were Bill Belichick last Sunday night, and you sat down for the first time. What's the first thing you mentioned? What's the first thing you said, we have to take this away? I knew they were playing the Falcons. Then last week was the study, the prep and the game plan week. The players practiced Saturday, Sunday, and that game for them to win the game. And the number one thing, they're in Seattle's defense so much, they know it so well. They're not going to be confused where the relies so much,

and it matters the most. And I think the number of positive yards create the right matchups of the highest level. And secondly, you know, they flash Seattle. Remember, the theme in Seattle is all a ball that matters. The same thing in Atlanta, the ball matters. And I'm sure all week, Belichick, the number two thing on his point of emphasis for the offense, three, look, you're only going to be able to run 60 or 65 plays in the game. So you can't be like the fat kid at the candy store and want to eat every piece of candy.

You've got to figure out what you want to run and just runs what you're going to run. And that's one of the strengths of Belichick. What he'll plays, he's practiced, and it hasn't been rehearsed. Yeah. Atlanta is a team that wants to make big plays. They lead the NFL in 20. I wrote in the column today, Julio Jones can have as many catches as he wants,

but if he does set the edge on both sides, whenever you play a Shanahan style of office, you've got to be able to hand outside zone, but the first time he sees daylight in the running game, down red zone defense. And I think that's where this game turns around. Falcons are bad in the red zone. The Patriot plays are going to determine the game.

Absolutely. And that's one of the things with Atlanta, that if you're building a weakness, if you're finding a weakness in this offense, it's what happens when they get down to that area of the field. They have some personnel issues. Their line is a good cohesive group, but individually can be exploited.

But when you get down where the field is small, you take away what they do best. I asked Dan Quinn last week, I said, if you were defending your offense, what's the thing you worry about most? And he says that they use every inch of the field, every blade of grasp both horizontally and vertically. And when you get down when the field shrinks,

they can't do that anymore. So really the biggest advantage they have goes away. So you have a strength of the Patriots lining up with the weakness of the Falcons, and I think you're totally right. And if you kick field goals in this game, you're going to lose. Right. I think that any time you send your punner or your field goal kicker out there, you're a little nervous because you know, and I think this game, and you have a chance to kick. I think you have to weigh that. And I think that's going to be a decision. You have to think about it on Sunday. You make it this week and say, look, we're going to be outside the 30-yard line.

We're going to go for it because we'd rather, we need four, not three. We need seven, not three. Absolutely. You need to have an actual principled approach to the game. can't have it wavered no matter what the game situation is. I totally agree. Right. So one of the things I didn't talk about with Danny, because I knew I chat about it with you, just the Julio problem in general and how the Patriots are going to approach it. When you're looking at just the way their personnel is going to be deployed against the Falcons, how do you think they go after Julio, who's used, and what sort of secondary packages do you think

will see the most? And also, Stephen, too. Yeah. In Greenwooding Malcolm Butler with help on top or low, the Patriots secondary, that that you like, it's like a basketball team. They have a small match up pretty much their corners on the receivers, Seattle, that handle the misdirections. Yep.

So I think they're going to put Roe on Julio, we put Malcolm Button. He's a long stride. Go to jam him, and then back away. You want him to have to pick that how they'll handle Sunu. And Logan Ryan is just very versatile. And he's also played very well in the playoffs. I feel like he's playing his best football of the year right now. No.

Now I think he's established himself as a really good player. It's interesting. I think that if they do put Roe on him, doesn't it feel like they'd probably let Logan Ryan guard him when Julio moves into the slot? Because Ro isn't necessarily flexible enough to handle some of that stuff. All the matronations of it. Roe could match up on Sunu. Ro could match up on Hool.

So I think that's kind of how it ends as much. You know, or the guys that are going to beat us, so the guys are going to make the chum passing game is critical. That was another thing I wanted to ask you. So I think that you have to make a decision if you're Atlanta. I feel like if you move Coleman out into the slot or out wide and try to use them as a receiver, that's a matchup advantage for you. But it also doesn't allow you to lean on your running game to the degree that they want. So I feel like you have to make a commitment to one of those two things and say,

this is more valuable to us. And if they move Coleman out to the slot, how do you think the Patriots react? When there's no back in the backfield, you can play a lot more cover two. Yep. Because Green Bay try to play a cover two to run game, they try to pressure some zone. They're going to match cover to be one. if you're the Patriot team is going to be how this matches up, how that matches up. That's a seven-on-seven game.

This game has to be dominate against Levitri, dominate against Chester, push the pocket back, win against Schrader the right tackle, push Jake Matthews back in the pocket. Make Matt Ryan have nobody's there. That's just not with coverage. You win with pressure inside, not sacks, pressure. That's the thing. I mean, if you just have Malcolm Brown and Alan Branch just say, it doesn't matter. We're just going to dominate you every single play.

no quickness, just strength. We're going to collapse that pocket at every single turn. I think that's the number one move in disrupting the passing game, for sure. I feel like we're talking, I totally agree with you with the empty sets, and that really makes you one-dimensional. I also think that's why we might see a lot of both of those guys in the field at the same time, putting Coleman out in the slot and letting Freeman be in the backfield to have that run threat while trying to exploit something with Coleman.

Right, no doubt. And I think you saw that in the Denver game. They were effective in the Denver game utilized. that. But remember, in the Denver game, they scored 24 points. Yeah. If Atlanta scores 24 points in this game, they won't win. Yeah, it's over. It's over pretty quick. They won't win. So, you know, it's, it's a game. You watch the, I mean, Matt Ryan had Julio wide open a couple times. The timing got construed and got messed up. So I think, you know,

look, there's a lot of games you look at when you watch the Falcons play and say, look, it's that they need the score. And one of the other things that they're going to play zone, we talk about all the big plays the Falcons have hit. And some of those, the shots to Taylor Gabriel, the play action plays that allow you to really push the ball down the field. But where Atlanta has become really dangerous, you can just look to the Julio play against Green Bay. They're great after they catch. And they'll gash you after they take something short.

And that's where New England's best. They're number one in the league in average yards after catch per play. They don't let you do that. And I think that if they can tackle well, it's going to go a long way in limiting the Falcons, moving it in chunks. Yeah, that's the critical. So if you're playing zone, you've got to tackle well. And you've got to be able to.

I mean, that's why they're the number one scoring defense in a little ball. You've moved the ball on them, but you haven't been able to make yards after contact. And that's where the Falcons on defense have really been poor. The Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league and yards after the catch. Who relies on yards after the catch. Yeah, and let's talk about that side of the ball because I feel like it's the one that's been overlooked because of how good the Falcons offense is and what the Patriots have to do to stop it.

But I think that side is fascinating as well. And I was talking about it with Danny earlier. If you think that the Falcons are going to line up in that Quinn, Seattle, cover three, layback defense, you're kidding yourself. I mean, there's no chance they play zone all game and just let Brady pick them apart. So if you're the Patriots and you know that, what's your approach? How do you try to take advantage of a team doing something that maybe it isn't necessarily most comfortable doing?

I think if you're Josh McDaniels, you're thinking they're going to play man against you. I know that's hard to believe, but they've played man against a lot of teams. They've played more man than most people. True font. They've been at the Brian Poole in the spot out there. If this game becomes a man-to-man game, and Brady knows it's a man-to-man game, it'll be a long day for the Falcons.

And that's where the challenge for the Falcons is. I mean, look, when you play Seattle, Seattle defense, it's a cover three-match defense. The key to that coverage is winning with the front. Freeney, can Vic Beasley, can they pressure enough against a really good offensive line? The coverage is going to be in favor. Grady, Jared, come inside, and play well against Shaq Mason.

and David Andrews and July that time they've played them. You'll see the Patriots covering the other side of field. I think that's what you'll see. If it's a man-and-man game, I totally agree. And it's also because you look at a guy like Jalen Collins, who's more suited to play that typical Quinn style of defense. I think that's why they brought him in. And if you have him on one side and you're doing things like stacking Edelman with another receiver

and making a guy like Jalen Collins chase Julian Edelman across the field, you're done. I mean, you could say good night because it is not going to go well for you. No, I think that's, the challenge. You have to be able to, you know, and they've been able to get, and they've been able to get by what the reality of it is when you're, you know, then what Green Bay had. I mean, this is a couple of working together. And I think that'll be the challenge for Atlanta, because Brady's really effective at the Brady at the line of scrimmage, Brady at the line of

scrimmage, then your front scum, I think when you look at Atlanta's personnel, I think that's the favoring of the game goes towards the Patriots. I agree. And I also think that Atlanta loves using twists and games and stuff up front. They'll use Beasley getting ahead of steam. And the problem what that is, I think the Falcons are like this as well, they're better as a cohesive unit on the offensive line than they are as an individual players. So if you use those stunts and you are relying more on lack of communication to get pressure than you are physically dominating those guys, then you're going to be in trouble because New England does such a good job of passing off and being on the same page. You're really losing a half step by doing that stuff. And Atlanta's

leaned on it so hard, I'm not sure they can do it in another way. I'm not sure they can consistently bother Brady without that stuff? Yeah, well, I think the ball comes out so quick. When you run stunts and the ball comes out quick, look, the way to get Brady is to have four guys pressure and play coverage behind them instantly. But if you don't win instantly, and I think Shaq Mason and I think Marcus Cannon have played, I mean, Shaq Mason to me is going to be a pro bowl guard.

I think Dave, hard guys to find. I mean, when you saw what Houston did, they had really forward, really dominant, they had dominant defensive linemen that got pressure on Brady. If they don't, then Atlanta has a huge favor. I would like to see if I'm Atlanta Big Beazey lineup all over the place I think if you just put him over Cannon the entire game and say go try to eat Big Man

that's not going to happen You need to use him in a way that's a little bit more creative Blitz him, drop somebody else Only bring four But make sure those four are coming from different directions Because like you said Brady knows where it's coming from It's over

Brady is always the pre-snap Reed To the game against when he You know he yelled out I think he yelled out Jordan and they made a connection. So, you know, that's where I think Atlanta is not going to fool them. Atlanta doesn't try to fool you. That's the other conception here.

Atlanta's not trying to fool you with their defensive scheme. That's what they're going to do and they want to win with their front. They need to turn over too. They've relied on it so much defensively. And that's where I'll be curious to see. And this is the other thing we kind of end on this. Is it too simple for me to just think that the Patriots want to go heavy and beat them up when they can? Because I just think they'll be able to rip off five or six a carry if they go.

go with those big sets with, I don't know, what's the backup tight ends name? Like, I always forget. Oh, Matt Langell. Oh, they'll put Cam Fleming. If they go heavy, they'll put Cam Fleming in the game and they'll let him up inside it. The goal of the game on how you want to do it. They're not going to be as worried about personnel because it runs a central, a 5-2 defense. So they're really not good in space.

Yeah. So when you lock them into their 30-4, it was a 5-2 because those are five-down linemen to made them play in space and all of a sudden there was huge gaps in the zones. Atlanta's not going to be. in that situation very much. You're either going to be a nickel or base. It's not going to be that complex. Lock them in, but they do want to do this.

Robert, the team doesn't have great depth in their defensive line. You want to play faster. When you need to run the ball, they're tired, or in the fourth quarter, if you need to catch up, you can throw it to play. And that's the thing with Atlanta is they don't have a lot of bodies. They want to throw out there on the defensive line. There's not a huge pool of guys to draw from.

No, their depth on defense is not great. All right. We've gotten to this point. What do you think is going to happen? I think it's, I think I like, I like the Patriots 34, 24, I think it'll be a really good game. I think it'll be a good game. Anytime the Patriots have played a team,

defense with Andrew Lux, who have enough defense to win, but they always have enough offense. And I think in this game, when you look at it, the recipe to beat the page, a great defense in the defensive line. They have enough in their defensive front. It wouldn't surprise me at all. I kind of, in something, you're deep in my soul. I kind of believe that that's going to be the tone of it and the pace of it as well.

but I've been picking the Falgats for a couple of weeks. I just watching this offense in all season. I think this is the exception. We haven't seen an offense like this win the Super Bowl in a long, long time. It's always been the defenses. Think about the 13 Broncos, even the 2011 Patriots. It hasn't gone this way. And I don't know.

I think it does. I picked Atlanta 3128 two weeks ago and I'm sticking with it. I may look like an idiot, but at least I'm principal. 3-1-1s are so important. They throw a nine route. They can't make in these kind of games in the red zone. and I think that's Brady when it comes to the situation. I don't blame you.

Mike, thank you for doing this. This was really fun. And the first of many. Thanks, Robert. Absolutely. Talk to you later. Bye-bye. All right, guys.

We'll be back on Friday with a little bit of a different show, but that is it from the Ringer NFL crew this week. We'll have some other guests on, some other voices. But thank you very much. Thank you to Danny. Thank you to Mike. And one more show before the big game. Let's go.