The Ringer NFL Show - Examining a Very Concerning Coaching Carousel After Conference Championship Weekend | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 31, 2023

Sheil and Ben start the pod by sharing their reactions to the news of the Jets hiring Nathaniel Hackett as their new OC, which leads to a discussion about the increasingly perilous search to replace his head coaching services in Denver. Next, Sheil breaks down why the Patriots' hiring of Bill O'Brien was a bad hire by Bill Belichick, while Ben is slightly more optimistic about Kellen Moore's move to the Chargers (25:35). They then get into the Cowboys' misguided coaching outlook moving forward and speculate on the Bengals' offseason roster moves (45:37). Finally, Sheil gives his hot take on where Tom Brady will play next season (1:06:30). Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Would you bet a few thousand dollars that you could sink an eight-foot putt? What about 10 grand that you could win a drag race against a Camero with a thousand horsepower? If you bet two million dollars, could you bet it all on one football game? Maybe you wish you could, but you probably wouldn't. Gamblers is about the people who did. From the Ringer Podcast Network, listen to Gamblers Season 2 on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point. Taken, I'm Sheila Kapady.

Joined by Ben Solek and producer Christopher Sutton on the ringer. NFL feed, in addition to the Super Bowl matchup being set, Ben. We got a lot of news around the NFL since we last spoke. We're going to get to all of it. We go back and forth. Three takes a piece. I will finish with the extra point tonight. Benjamin, you are somewhere in Mobile, Alabama, getting ready to scout some college.

players your kind of offseason has kind of started, how you feel in a mobile? Yeah, there's always this really fun week of the senior bowl, which is always like Pro Bowl week, where you completely forget all of the NFL players and you try to pay attention to all the college players, like one week, and then you go back to the NFL players in the Super Bowl, and then you go to the college players.

So we're interstitial moment. I did run into a couple of Eagles trainers at Chick-fil-A when I went to get dinner, and I was like, congrats on the win, guys. Sorry, you're here right now. Nobody else is going to be here with you guys. But anyway, congrats and good work. Keep it up. Go, go team.

So, yeah, and you know, Eagles fans ran into Dennis Allen, which is just, it was, I was like crossing him in the street. And it's one of the situations where, like, you look at somebody and you immediately recognize them. And they look at you and they know you recognize them, but they don't know who you are. And then you just silently half stare at each other for 10 seconds. Love that. That was thrilling. Great moment.

love the senior bowl. That's part of fun for the off-season events. The Combine, the Senior Bowl, it's the owner's meeting. You're just kind of walking around. You see Bruce Ariens walking down the street, looking lost in downtown Indianapolis. I remember that happened one time for Mays up. That's good. Maybe you spend a few days down there.

Maybe on next week's extra point taken, you'll have something related. Like, your take will be, you know, Dennis Allen loves whatever restaurant more than any person known to man, you know? Brian Dable does not want to have Chick-fil-A tonight, I heard. Because when I walked past him, he was trying to figure out what to have for dinner and he was talking to somebody and he saw my chick-flay back. He went, I don't want Chick-fil-A-Ton-Night. And I was always like, well, screw you, Brian Dable, kicked you out of the playoffs, Chief.

But then not, and decided not to do that. Okay, I think that was a smart move. All right. Let's get to it. I am first here. I feel like I have a little bit of a theme with my takes this week. But I'm going to start with this one, Benjamin. A lot of news has happened since we last spoke.

And I think New York Jets fans should be deeply concerned about the direction of their football team. And, you know, we can have on Mama Solek at some point and see if this is true or if this is not true. I'm not a Jets hater. I like the Jets fan base. I like the fan bases that are so loyal, even though the organization gives them no reason to be loyal. This team has not made the playoffs in 12 straight years. But the reason why I'm concerned is that their first move this offseason was to fire. Mike LaFleur

and replace him with Nathaniel Hackett. And if you were reading some of the tweets announcing this move from various people, I honestly don't know

the names. I just remember scrolling through going, man, Jets, PR or Robert Sala, they're doing a heck of a job here. I mean, you would think

Nathaniel Hackett with the next coming of Vince Lombardi here with some of the numbers that were being thrown out. And so if you read the reporting, Robert Sala said he

interviewed well over 15. candidates. He landed on Nathaniel Hackett. He warned the media. He said, hey, guard against recency bias. He wasn't good in Denver. We know we had a bad situation there with the Broncos as their head coach, but this is a really good offensive coordinator. So I said, okay, let me, let me dig a little more on this on Nathaniel Hackett and see, let me go back away because you know me, I'm old. My memory is not good. I don't remember anything past, you know, really this morning. So is there something I'm missing? Did he have this amazing run? And so here, here are the numbers. Numbers. Don't always tell the whole story, Ben. We know that. But Nathaniel Hackett has been an

offensive coordinator calling plays six times in his career. Let me give you the efficiency rankings, DVOA in those six seasons. 2013 with the Bills 25th. 2014 with the Bills, 26th. 2016 with the Jaguars, 27th, 2017 with the Jaguars, 15th, 2018 with the Jaguars 30th, and 2002 with the Denver Broncos through 10 weeks before he gave up play-calling duties. They were 28th. I mean, we're talking about a guy whose offenses have ranked in the bottom 10 of the NFL in five of six seasons. And I know he didn't always have great quarterback play, but come on, the point of finding an offensive coordinator is going to be a difference maker is you want to find someone who can do more with less. And there is no evidence in Nathaniel Hackett's background that he is someone who can do more with less.

I don't want to hear about what he did with Aaron Rogers and the Packers. He wasn't calling the plays. It was Matt LaFleur's offense. Like if you hired Nathaniel Hackett in a similar role and said he's going to be some kind of senior offensive assistant, but not the coordinator, I would say, okay, you know, go ahead. Maybe he's qualified to do that. I'm not saying, and the guy, you know, has no idea what he's talking about. But I look at that move and this, Ben, to me, has really felt like ownership telling Robert Sala telling Joe Douglas, we're not just running it back. Like, you have to do something.

If I'm not doing anything to you guys, we have to do something here. And so they fire the floor. They replace. And if you want to fire a guy, listen, sometimes you change things up. And again, this will be a theme on some of the other teams we talk about today. You change stuff up. That's fine. But you need to have a replacement plan that's going to get.

give you an upgrade. And if you look at the Jets last year, their problem was quarterback. Their problem was Zach Wilson. If you actually look at some of the numbers when Mike White played under Mike LaFleur, they were more of a mediocre offense than a terrible offense. And now you hire Hackett, and we've got to make the Aaron Rogers link as a possibility. I know they're denying it. We'll see if that's the case or not. But I don't like it regardless. I'm trying to remember right now the last team that hired Nate Hackett as Aaron Rogers Bait spent the entire time denying it, it didn't go well for them. If only that happened recently in history, we had an example we could draw on here. Just, you know, I'd kind of understand this higher. Exactly. I don't see a great, like, resolution either way. Like they bring, let's say they get Aaron Rogers. And it works. Well, now you're counting on 39-year-old Aaron Rogers under Nathaniel Hackett, paying him $59 million, giving up draft capital and hoping that what happens, that you sneak into the playoffs one year. And then if you don't get Aaron Rodgers,

Rogers, why do you have Nathaniel Hackett with whoever your veteran quarterback is going to be? And so I don't think the Jets are solving their problems. I think they had a nice sort of patient rebuild. I think they rebuilt the roster. I like aspects of that New York Jets team personnel-wise. But I am very concerned about the direction this team is going this offseason. I don't know if there's, I don't expect you to take the other side, but is there something I'm missing here? Is there another side I'm not considered?

So I would say this. when the Broncos first hired Nate Hackett, I said at the time of the hire that if this gets them Aaron Rogers, it's a pretty solid hire. Like, it raises the floor of the higher tremendously. If this is Aaron Rogers bait and it works,

yeah, I would also hire a head coach if I had like, you know, a 90% I don't know what real percent chance. Like, you know, so high percent chance of getting this really, like the guy who's back to back MVP for, you know, 2020, 2020, 2021.

So I said that about the Broncos hire. And then I watched Hackett, knock at Aaron Rogers. And I watched Hackett coach a few games. And I said, yeah, this clearly is not it, right? Like the second he couldn't get Rogers, now you're working with a guy who doesn't have a strong offensive resume, who doesn't seem like he's ready to handle head coaching responsibilities, managing a locker room, managing a culture, right, dealing with frustrated players, building an offense, managing a game, timeouts, fourth down decisions, you know, the procedural penalties early.

Like, he's clearly out of his depth. And like, some of that would have been acceptable if he had a guy like Rogers to solve the problems for him offensively, but he doesn't. So, like, he's not at the stage in his career where he's ready to be, I think, a quality head coach. Okay, so now he's going to go be an offensive coordinator. Well, if he gets Aaron Rogers, then it's a pretty good hire. If Aaron Rogers is a jet next year and he's a jet because he wanted to play with Nate Hackett

again, saw it higher. If not, it's the same thing as the Broncos. Is he capable of calling plays for an NFL offense that does not have an MVP quarterback, Eric. Aaron Rogers, a clear Hall of Fame or one MVP before Nate Hackett was there has clearly been like a star talent, unbelievable guy. If he doesn't have

Rogers, he has not been able to call a quality NFL offense. So it is as like, I don't want to say high risk, high reward. It's as high risk, medium reward of a higher as you can make. And two NFL teams have made it in

back-to-back years. Right? And I think your, read on this being, you know, kind of, uh, mired in desperation is too strong. But I think that, right, the jets are realized that they, if they don't hit a home run here, there's going to be changes on the staff for Robert Sala, most likely. Joe Douglas after the draft he just had, I would wager or not. But like Joe Douglas has been there for four years.

He took the swing on a first round quarterback, Zach Wilson, and emphatically missed. And if you go and you look at the history of general managers who take early, like, half of the first round quarterbacks and that guy doesn't pan out, those guys rarely keep their jobs. So they know that like we have to land something. And Nate Hackett is the best worm to put on a hook for the biggest fish that's going to be in the quarterback market in Aaron Rogers. Like from that perspective, I get it. It's just if you, if you fall off that high wire, it's sharks and it's lava and it's, you know, the big roly sharp wheels, other, you know, cartoon destruction stuff below. It is a, it is a, it is a dangerous highwire act.

Yeah, I think your medium reward that was said well because I don't even like I cannot talk myself into a best case scenario that results in high upside for this team given how old Aaron Rogers is what you would be giving up to get him. And the fact that again, Nathaniel Hackett has had six opportunities to call plays for an NFL offense and his offenses have never finished better than 15th in offensive DVOA. So my concerns, let's see what happens with Aaron Rogers. That's going to be a big storyline this offseason. But I'm sorry, Jet fans. I wish, you know, there were moves that made more sense, that there was a little more patience that they said we whiffed on Zach Wilson. That's okay.

There will be other options, but let's do this kind of patiently and smartly here. And I don't think that's what they're doing so far this off season, at least from what we've seen so far with the Nathaniel Hackett move. All right, Benjamin, what do you got for your first take this evening? I'm adjusting my order here because I have a Broncos' take. Okay. That's the team

that Net Hackett just left. So let's, you know, continue to hit the dead horse here a little bit. This Broncos coaching search is in dire straits, man.

Like, you're worried about the Jets. I'm worried that the head coach the Denver Broncos is going to be like Roger Goodell. Like, I don't even know.

It's going to be Matt and Campbell. Like, we are in, let's, let's establish where we are with this Broncos coaching search. Okay?

So Denver opens up the job. George Payton's going to consult. I came with Greg Penner. There's his name. Right. But, you know, Penner's going to handle the interviews. Condoleezer Rice is going to sit and it's going to go great. They get Jim Harbaugh in the building. Everybody two weeks ago had it. Jim Harbaugh is their guy. They like Harbaugh, big splash higher.

And then that falls through. Harbaugh's got like NCAA problems. There was a report a couple days ago that like Penner flew out to meet him in Ann Arbor to try to talk things through. Didn't work. It's tough. Don't worry about it, though. we're getting Sean Payton in the building. Sean Payton, Super Bowl winning head coach

out of retirement. It's going to come fix Russell Wilson because he was good with Drew Breez. Drew Brees were short. Russell Wilson's short. This is going to be great, guys. And then Sean Payton like delays the second interview, right? They had an interview scheduled for,

I want to say it was like Wednesday the 26th. And he was like, hey, I'm, I'm going to push that back. But I have to go talk to the Cardinals. It's not great. When that happens, that's not a good sign. There was the report. that Sean Payton moved off of the Broncos job because he anticipated having issues with ownership,

which I only saw because Sean Payton quote tweeted it to clarify that it wasn't true. And my general rule on things is that if somebody who's on one side of a reported disagreement, quote tweets it to clarify that it's not true, there was some truth to it. There was at least a little nugget. There was a grain somewhere of some truth.

Okay, but that's fine to worry about it. We have a new first choice, D'Amico Rions. We're going to get D'Mico in the building. Everybody, the last few days, D'Amico Rions, man. The Broncos are just waiting. Niners leave the playoffs. Get D'Amico in the build. Love D'Amico Ryan's.

My favorite head coach, Kahn. It's going to be sick. Report today. D'Miko Ryans has informed the Broncos. He is not interested in the search. D'Amico's going to Houston. Houston. I know he played for Houston, but still,

look at the Texans roster. Look at Texans have had back-to-back, one and done black coaches. And D'emico Ryan's is like, yeah, I'll go coach to Texans instead of going to Denver. So this is now, Dan Quinn, who they loved last year, right?

Oh, Dan Quinn, we love Dan Quinn. George Payton's really in on Dan Quinn. They're close, right? They shared buddies back in the day. Dan Quinn interviewed once and said, I'm staying at the Dallas defensive coordinator, which like all of these guys have mitigating factors, right? Like, there's a lot of reasons for Dan Quinn to stay in Dallas.

So it's not like everybody's just getting one brush of the Broncos turning their nose up and scurrying back home. I don't think it's that simple. But I do know that the Broncos have informed four candidates today that they are no longer interested in their potential head coaches. Rahim Morris, Jim Caldwell, David Shaw, A Giro Evaro, who listeners to the pot, remember Giro Everro's name. That's the defensive coordinator for the Broncos,

who for the past three months, I've been trying to tell Denver the call is coming from inside the building. Got a great young defensive-minded coach. Just get him the job and just get the ship through the Russell Wilson years. So Denver really earnestly, like, wanted the splash. New ownership group, ton of money to throw around, wanted to make the big hire, wanted to turn the Russell Wilson issue around, and they are just whiffing at the plate.

I mean, it's sliders, it's curveballs, it's changeups, it's pitches in the dirt, and they're swinging at everything, and they cannot connect, right? I mean, they are, I have no idea where they are in this search right now. There's good news. The good news is that Bengals' defense coordinator, Lou Anoruma, is a great candidate. Brangles' offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan's a great candidate.

Both those guys are going to start interviewing. Eagles, offensive coordinator, Shane Steigant, is a great candidate. Defense coordinator, John Gannon, who they reportedly liked quite a bit, who's on the coaching cycle last year. He's a great candidate, and they'll be available to interview, you know, in a couple of weeks. So the longer this thing goes, it does become, I think, a little bit more embarrassing, but it doesn't preclude you from getting a good coach, right? It's always important to remember that the Jaguars tried really hard to hire Byron Lefwich

and Nate Hackett. And because they couldn't, they hired Doug Peterson. You know, it's not that you have to get your first choice so you're going to get a bad coach. It is to say that, like, man, Denver is just in it. Denver, like, whatever it is in terms of like a new ownership, group, the Russell Wilson contract, kind of the expectations for the job, they are really struggling to present this job as an attractive position for the quality candidates they were hoping to get. They're going to have to lower expectations.

Like, Shane Stuyken would be a huge hire for them right now. And he's like never been an NFL head coach and like, you know, three year offensive coordinator, right, two year play caller. Like the resume isn't as illustrious. It's not going to be able to sit up there at the open. opening press conference and list Sean Payton's accolades the way you wanted to. But like at this point, you just got to get a good candidate in at head coach, get an offensive guy, see if you can fix Russell Wilson that way. A lot more teams have fallen bass backwards, a lot of good head

coaches before than you. But this, uh, this, this did not go as the Broncos were planning. It was going to go their head coaching, uh, their head coach and search. Yeah, it kind of felt all along like Sean Payton is this domino. And once Sean Payton decides what to do, then other teams will start hiring people. And to be fair, the only guy, who's been hired officially has been Frank Reich, even though, yes, there have been reports linking to Miko Ryans to the Texans. I mean, I would emphasize the points you made about sort of the luck factor in all of this. I mean, the Jaguar's example really is a great one.

You know, they won a second interview with Nathaniel Hackett. If you go back and read the headlines at that time, it was, ooh, Bronco swoop in for Nathaniel Hackett. And then I was like, all right, Jaguar settle on Doug Peterson. Well, a year later, which coach would you rather have? way at that time, which coach would you have rather had that? I think you and I probably would have been on the Peterson side. Even look at the Eagles are, the Eagles are in the Super Bowl with Nick Siriani. I mean, if you go back and remember that, they took a week to decide whether they

were going to fire Doug Peterson. Doug Peterson actually did a postseason press conference the day after their season ended and the thought was okay, he'll be back. And then there was a meeting. And then there was another meeting. And then they decided they were going to move on. And I think there were other candidates who they probably preferred to Nick Siriani if they had their pick of anybody, but these other teams kind of had a head start on them and were already interviewing people. They were in on Ben McAdoo in the Doug Peterson year. And then they were in on Brian Dable, who like would have been good in the next Seriani

year. It's okay to miss your first one. Once you start missing the third guy and like, they're like, you know, like, D'Amico has informed the Broncos he's out. Sean Payne is delaying the interview. Now we're in like a little hot under the collar stage. Yeah, I think the new ownership thing is really important here. I mean, it is, you know, it is kind of a new process.

Now, the one thing that really should be the case with the Broncos is they should have had a head start on everybody because they fired Athenel Hackett during the season. And so you really could have had your ducks in a row earlier here, even if you're waiting to interview some of these people during the postseason. So I would say, I would agree with you that if you're a Broncos fan, you're going, this doesn't feel great, given how last year went, and we don't really know what ownership is thinking here. I mean, I think there's two possibilities. I think possibility number one is everybody has a price. And I mean, if they're flying to Ann Arbor, like my impression was always

that Jim Harbaugh, you know, teams talk to Jim Harbaugh wanted back in the NFL and NFL teams were saying, we'll talk to you. Thanks, but no thanks. I mean, that was my read on Harbaugh. but if ownership is flying to Ann Arbor to talk to Harbaugh again, is there a finance, you know, what is the issue? Is it a financial thing? And do they finally just say, hey, what's, you know, another X million to us at this point to get our guy? By the way, that could be a similar case with Sean Payton. I mean, I think there were some reports that Sean Payton like was not, you know, shying away from the possibility of coaching Russell Wilson and that situation. So let's see, they could still land somebody. And now, you know my rule for the office.

to this is don't fall in love. So I would say, oh, God, if you really have to convince that person and bring a man, that might not be great. And then the other possibility is what you said.

They just settle on someone, hey, Shane Steichen, whoever. And that coach ends up being really good. And we're sitting here next year going, remember last year when we thought the Broncos process was a disaster? So I think there is cause for concern.

At the same time, there's a randomness and a luck to it that let's kind of see what they get before I at least will want to crush them completely. Yeah. I think that's the most important thing. I think right here, it's a,

what's the poem about road splitting? Two, two paths, whatever. The fork in the road. They can go, like, uphill on Splash Mountain and be like, oh, man, like, we really thought we were going to make a big splash. We're not getting to make a big splash. Right, let's give Sean Payton the greatest contract the world ever seen, right? Let's trade two first round pegs for him and pay him $20 million a year.

Or you can go downhill on Splash Mountain and be like, yeah, Brian Callahan's got some good ideas about football. kill let's hire them. And I think there's going to be a temptation, just knowing NFL blood, knowing NFL DNA to go up, Splash Mountain, right? To be like, we go big.

Yeah. And that's, I would say, resist that notion, resist that temptation, downhill. It's okay that you wanted to get Jim Harbaugh. Like, my read on the situation was they really wanted Jim.

That was like from when I remember when like Harbaugh first started interviewing, like Vegas was taking a ton of money on Jim Harbor, the Broncos. my read was that Jim was their first big domino. You wanted to get it. You didn't get it. Sean Payne's not happening. Like, don't fall in love.

Don't try to make it happen. Just interview your guys, find somebody alike, hire them. And it's really okay if your fourth choice ends up like a solid coach and just like gets you through the Russell Wilson years. It's fine. NFL is not going anywhere. It's a long game. Yeah, I would agree with the part about everything we know about the NFL and about

new ownership groups. And by the way, know about how embarrassing. Singh last year was and know about how fed up that fan base was, which I loved how fed up that fan base was, that there will be an inclination for them to say, no, we're not just going to like settle on somebody that nobody's heard of, that, you know, we're going to go big on the guy. I saw today that like a Broncos, like, insider clarified on the radio that Mike Shanahan's not coming out of coaching.

And when I saw that, I was like, oh, the Broncos are in a bad way. They're in a bad way when we have to make, make it clear that Mike Shanahan's not coming. going to save the team. We are down in a bad spot. Oh my goodness. All right. So we'll say. I have a feeling we'll be talking more about the Broncos once they make some decisions in the weeks ahead. This year, the only app you need at your Super Bowl party is Fanduel, America's number one sportsbook. Download Fandul now and use promo code Ringer NFL so you can bet Super Bowl 57 with a no sweat first bet. You'll get up to $3,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.

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Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, 18778, Hope, N.Y, or text Hope N.Y 467369 in New York, 1,800 522 470-470 in Wyoming, or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. My second take, Bill Belichick wasted another opportunity by settling on Bill O'Brien as his offensive. coordinator. When you sent me Jets Patriots as two of your three teams for takes, I was like,

oh, we're doing Shil Kapite greatest hits today, baby. Let's go. I feel like I've been nice to the Jets for most of the most of the season. I was got that. Yeah. And will the Patriots deserve it? Okay. So here's the reason why if you've read the Boston Herald had a great piece on how horrible last last season was in terms of the dysfunction with the offensive coaching. Chad Graff of the Athletic also had a very good piece. If you're Bill Belichick and you're looking at this and last year you go Matt Patricia Joe Judge, you realize, man, that didn't work out. That was terrible. Why don't you take this as a chance to reflect, a chance to say, all right, that didn't work out. Let me think about what I could do better. We could always improve no matter if we're in our

20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, there are ways to improve here. You're Bill Belichick. You are one of the only people who can call literally any coach at any level of football, send an email, send a text, have a call, have a conversation, and have a discussion about joining their staff. It could be somebody who's so happy with their current position, their family doesn't want to move, they're not going anywhere, but you're Bill Belichick, they would at least consider it. You can call Nick Saban. Hey, Nick, we're buddies. Hey, just who are the five most impressive offenses you faced?

in the last few years, anywhere in college football. Hey, Nick, is there any position group that when you're just going through film during the year, you say, oh, my gosh, that group is incredibly well coached. Or maybe you're Bill Belichick and you have a notebook somewhere and you say, I watch film every week of our opponent. And you know what? I saw these wide receivers who played for Team X and, man, they just executed unbelievably. I would love to know who coaches that group because that person is doing a heck of a job,

doing more with less. Bill Belichick did not do any of that. Bill Belichick once again settled on somebody he knows. Bill O'Brien coached with the Patriots 2007 to 2011. You may remember he had a quarterback by the name of Tom Brady during that stint. Pretty much every offense the Patriots had with Tom Brady over a long period of time, regardless of who was coaching the offense, was very good. Bill O'Brien goes to Penn State.

Bill O'Brien goes to the Texans, and I think there's some revisionist history about how good those offenses were with the Houston Texans. He had five full seasons with Houston. The offenses ranked 21st, 25th, 30th, 24th, 19th, and 17th. The last three years were with Deshawn Watson. He was injured one year. He was healthy the other two years. Yet in those five seasons, they again did not produce one above average offense. They had amazing. defenses. We forget that. They had a top 10 defense, four out of five seasons. That's why they won game. So does Bill O'Brien raise the floor from the Matt Patricia Joe Judge era? Yes, it would kind of be hard to go downhill from what we saw last year with the Patriots. He can give you

competency. I'm not saying otherwise. He's had solid moments as a coach. But are you trying to win Super Bowl? Are you trying to maximize the potential of your team? Are you willing to take on just a little bit of risk by hiring somebody that maybe you don't know who hasn't worked for you or who hasn't been in the building or you're just saying, hey, let's be a little bit better than last year. And obviously, with the move, it's the latter. If I'm a Patriots fan, I cannot get excited about this move and think now with Bill O'Brien with Mack Jones, all of a sudden I'm going to be competing with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes and all these other teams in the AFC. And so I'm just disappointed that, you know, Belichick really had an opportunity here to reflect, rethink the way he does things, and add a little creativity, add some innovation to the offense, to the building. And instead, he chose a very different route. What do you think?

What offensive coordinator, if they had hired, would you feel with that coordinator of Mac Jones that could compete with Josh Allen and two of us, Mike McDaniel in the AFC East? I mean, I don't know, but I think there are guys you could talk to yourself. And now, I don't know who the best offensive coordinator candidates are, but I would know if there was someone where I said, ooh, Bill Belichick's thinking a little bit outside the box. And I don't know much about this guy, but maybe he'll do well. And you're right. I mean, their offense, I mean, listen, their offense was what,

like a top 10, top 12 unit the previous year with Mack Jones as a rookie. So it's not like there's no potential there. I mean, if you had a creative offensive mind and you added a wide, wide receiver and the offensive line is a little bit better and you have a defense that you've had the last two years. I'm with you. You're probably still not going to be, you know, beating those teams, but you could feel a lot better about the direction of the offense, the direction of the team, in my opinion. With Mac, it's tough for me. It's tough to get all the way there, unlike, you said like, they had a good offensive rookie year, but like a lot of that, that film you watch and you're like,

I don't know how sustainable this is. And that's the tricky thing. It's like, always the part of Mac Jones that's, that's frustrating. I know your take's not about Mac. I'll circle this around. The thing about Mac that's frustrated at me is there's this, like, legend about him as this like,

quick game pocket pass or Tom Brady archetype because he got drafted by the Patriots. But like going back to his time at Alabama, with which Bill O'Brien will be familiar, he was watching film on it. He's like a heavy personnel play action shot guy. And that's what, like, when he was finding success in that first season,

a lot of it was on like, you know, shots. A lot of it was on like deep passes, which is just like, he's not the sort of build that you expect to do that and the sort of place I expect to do that. So the Patriots offense is just like, it's very difficult to figure out

who the offensive coordinator should be for the Patriots offense because it's really hard to figure out the tent poles. Like, what are you building around? And Mack has a weird skill set. And like Tyquan Thorin, I think is the right sort of pick

for that skill set. But you didn't really see a lot from Taekwant this year. Devante Parker is probably also the right part for that skill set. But like, it's Devante Parker. like how much do you really want to prioritize him as your starting X? You want to give him six, seven targets a game.

Ramandre Stevenson's good. Like, you know, their gap running stuff is solid. Okay, so like a gap power guy. There's so little offensive star power on the roster altogether, like let alone like the quarterback question with Mack that it does make it tough to figure out who the offensive coach should be. That doesn't preclude Bill Belichick from like doing something clever, doing something interesting, doing something.

Meaningful. Yeah. Right. It doesn't at all. That's the thing that I struggle with is when like, okay, NFL head coach hires friend to be offensive coordinator. Bad, like, there's a lot of those headlines. You know what I'm saying?

I, like, Belichick should make a more aggressive offensive offensive coordinator hire, but I'm not surprised he's just hiring a guy that he knows and he's like, okay, run the ball 30 times. I'm going to win games on defense again. Like, that doesn't surprise me that he's doing that. Yeah. No, it doesn't surprise everybody of any. if you've read, again, read the coverage, good articles in the Herald and the athletic.

And there were, you know, in that Herald article, they were suggesting that, you know, Belichick really wanted to change the offense last offseason. Like he wanted to implement all these changes. And he's doing it. Right. We're going to be a zone running team and Matt Patricia is going to install it. What? Right.

With Patricia and Judge. So it's just, you're right about, you know, head coach hires his friend and might not be the best higher headlines. There's a lot of those out there, as you probably know, from doing that. now six months of podcasting with me, those headlines still will irk me every single time when I don't feel like the guy is the most qualified candidate for the job. And again,

O'Brien is not in the same category as Patricia and Judge. I get that. He will raise the level of competency. I just, I don't understand why Belichick has to have guys that he's known before when he, I mean, think about, and really, this is kind of a tangent, but it goes to like the minority coaching stuff and like, you know,

building a pipeline and stuff. I mean, who is better equipped or who has a better avenue? you like he could just build an amazing pipeline of minority offensive coaches who are not getting opportunities and are getting overlooked, bring them in. They would probably very much like to be on a Bill Belichick staff and then a guy leaves, well, now you have a pipeline and you're not just looking to call your friends from Alabama every year when it doesn't work out. So we'll see what happens with the Patriots.

I know I would assume there are some Patriots fans who are like, this is fine, this is great, at least not Patricia and Judge. And I get that. But I would not be that excited if I were a Patriots fan. All right. What do you have for your second take here? Okay. We're transitioning now to Kellynne Moore, the offensive coordinator who left Dallas for the Chargers.

Now, was he fired from Dallas? No. They mutually agreed to part ways. Always my favorite thing whenever I mutually agree to part ways with someone. We may mutually agree to part ways at some point. I mean, we're only in year one. I mean, I was going to, I'll be honest, y'all. was going to make a joke there where I was like,

you're going to be heartbroken when you find out that the ringer just hired you because you were my friend and nothing to do with your quality of work. And I decided not to do it. But if we're going to do a little coaching staff riff back and forth, I have one in the chamber for you. Anyway, within like 24 hours of mutually agreeing to part ways of the Cowboys, he gets the Chargers job,

which from what I saw is the only job he interviewed with or expressed interest in. So it seems very clear that, like, more wanted it out of Dallas and was pretty confident he had the charges. job lined up, new year the charge job lined up, and the Cowboys are fine with that, and the charges go for it. The take is this, Kellan Moore, if we have the correct read on him, is suited towards solving the Chargers offensive problems. But that's a big if. So, what were those struggles and the frustrations and the irritations with the charges offense under Joe Lombardi? There's a lot of Joe Lombardi complaints. You hear them from me all the time.

You hear them on this feed all the time. You hear them on other feeds all the time. here on broadcast all the time. Fundamentally, what it comes down to is a lack of aggressive play calling on early downs. Justin Herbert was last in the league in area yards per attempt on first and second down. Joe Lombardi, the offensive coordinator in charge of the offensive philosophy in L.A. said, you know what? It is extremely acceptable for us to just play for second and six, which in the modern NFL is ludicrously incorrect. Justin Herbert was 45th in an air yards per attempt on play. They would go for play action plays, and again, they would be fine with generating a six-yard gain off of that.

And running play action on first, then to get the second and four. They had no ability to generate explosive pass, 34th in the league. And explosive pass was Justin Herbert out of 47 quarterbacks. It is easy to see how Kellyn Moore can improve this. This past season, the Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, 27th in Adda on first and second down. So 20 spots better than Justin Herbert. 25th and Adolf play action. Again, 20 spots better than Herbert.

17th and explosive play rate, 17 spots better than Herbert. Like, in the exact things in which Lombardi frustrated us, Moore's offenses were better. And it would be nice, and trust me, I am very tempted to go, box checked, baby, we solved the problem. We went from a guy who didn't throw it down the field early to a guy who's more willing to do it. The charge's offense is saved.

However, the descriptive issues of Joe Lombardi's offense don't end at, no, not enough. Downfield shots on first down. When you watch them, one of the sensations you get is that they run the same common West Coast concepts over and over and over again, often without window dressing, such that opposing defenses can anticipate them,

can sit on routes. When this Cowboys' offense would go into its struggles and it did under Kellynmore, they'd be running the same West Coast concepts over and over again. Defense would be keyed in on it. The game-ending sack against the 49ers late, Cowboys ran all curls right past the state, sticks. A lot of, a lot of back Prescott hate for that playing, not getting the ball out.

That were the chargers. Everybody would have been on Joe Lombardi for that play call. It's what he always calls on third down, right? So more in Lombardy do come from similar trees in terms of the concepts that they run. More absolutely does a better job with window dressing. More one like four by one formations like pre-sat motion, like find clever ways to get to the core concepts, but they both rely very heavily on the core. Both had good quarterbacks for it. Dak Prescott, smart, tall, accurate pocket passer. Justin Herbert, smarter, taller, accurate, or passer. You know what I'm saying?

Like, they both had the right archetypes to do this, and so it made sense. More, like I said, a little bit better with the window dressing. Both had receiving cores that lacked deep speed, right? Like, the Cowboys had to get Ty Hilton into the building to try to get some of these deep passes. Other than that, they really couldn't get separation downfield such that, like, DAC being forced into these contested,

catch throws to Michael Gallup, but would look eerily similar to Justin Herbert being forced these contested catch throws to Mike Williams against the sideline, right? So more, I think, as a smarter, more modern, updated understanding of football, which allows him to run a similar offense to Lombardi

in terms of what it looks like more effectively. But those issues would still crop up every so often. They would still pop up in Dallas. We would see covered routes because everyone knew the concept. We would see only congested downfield against the sideline shots, no ability to stretch the field. We attributed a lot of that to McCarthy, because Mike McCarthy had similar issues in Green Bay.

They just run the same concepts. Aaron Rogers is getting irritated. So we, we, you know, we're media people and we got agendas, and we said, okay, all the good stuff, Kellyn Moore. All the bad stuff, that's Mike McCarthy, that's him, right? So everything you see that's ugly, that's Mike, because we know we don't like him. Kellyn Moore, he's good, he's precious, we love him.

We're going to get that a proof of concept here with the Chargers. I really like the hire. I think it's a great hire. It's going to keep language, similar to Justin Herbert. I think it's going to map onto their personnel very well. But a lot of the issues that we really got on the Barty for and have excused Kellyn Moore for because he's been under Mike McCarthy

are now going to get put to light where there are future outcomes here where this Chargers offense ends up looking very similar to it has in the last couple years because Moore runs into the same issues that he ran into in Dallas and that Lombardi ran into with Herbert and the Chargers previously. All right. So let me ask. because I heard the take and then there was some strong strength to the take, but then there was some backpedaling to the take.

There was some doubts to the take. So let me, I got to nail you down. Okay, go ahead. It was a contextual take. It had context. Okay. So let me ask you a very simple question that. Because I like, you know, man, I like to tell you that at a world of percent,

like, I like to likelihoods of outcomes. This is the way my brain thinks. So week 14 next year. You and I are coming on an extra point taken at, you know, 1230 Eastern time after a Monday night football game. And do you have a Chargers take? Is it more likely that your Chargers take is something to the effect of, man, this Kellynne Moore Justin Herbert partnership is working beautifully?

Let me tell you why I love what I'm seeing. A. or B, man, I thought this I thought this gallon more higher was going to be a lot better and here we are dealing with the same issues we dealt with under Joe Lombardi and they are not letting Justin Herbert

spread his wing. So do you feel very strongly that your take will be on one end or the other? Do you feel like it might be a coin flip? Where are you with the likelihood of those two takes in week 14 of next season? I appreciate you like one of the percentages on it. why you're a good handicap, right? It's, it's percentages of outcomes.

It's, it's, it's, uh, clear predictions. I would say seven, right now, like, as I read it, I'd say there's a 70% chance that the Kellynne Moore higher is, is good and impactful and solves the Joe Lombardi issues. I would say there's a 30% chance that the higher, while it generally improving the offense, leaves the same issues in terms of teams are driving on these route concepts. They don't have the wide receiver talent and the designs downfield and the play action

game to stretch the field. Everything is still Justin Herbert trying to like really win and dominate zero to 20 yards. I'll throw another team at you. The Jaguars arc this year as a passing game, I think is a good example of like what Kellyn Moore and the Chargers might become. The Jaguars also like can't like they can't really stretch the field, right? They tried Christian Kirk, hit him in the hands, 50 yards down the field doesn't work. They don't have a speed threat. So they just ask Lawrence to be a super big boy on like seven total West Coast concept zero to 20 yards. And like the Chargers might very well end up like that with Kellynne Moore, with Justin Herbert, and with like a healthy Keenan Allen and healthy Mike Williams.

The reason why that's a good metaphor team, it's a good comparison team, is because in the middle of this season, the Jaguar said, we're trading a first round back for Calvin Ridley. Right. So we need to, this has to evolve, right? So there's a chance that next year, first year under Kellynne Moore is a great like first step out of Lombardi, but they still run into the wall of saying, oh, and we need to be better at still stretching the ball down the field,

still getting more out of Justin Herbert's arm. They take that first time and don't go. In general, I think it'll be good. I'm just saying, like, I've seen a lot of, like, Kellan Moore's a good O.C. All the bad stuff he did is Mike McCarthy, and Joe Lombardi was the worst. And trust me, I was very big on Joel and Barty is the worst.

I'm still on Joelombardy is the worst. But we're doing a lot of legwork to cut off some of the Kellyn Moore issues in Dallas by just saying, yeah, and that was McCarthy. And again, still 70% chance I agree with that. But we got to see. There's a big proven ground for Kellynne Moore. Yeah, I mean, I like Herbert. We've talked about Herbert.

We're still all there with Herbert. If you go through a second offensive coordinator and we're saying, well, if the offensive coordinator's fault, why the offense isn't at a certain level, you know, at some point, blame is going to start to get shifted elsewhere. I totally agree that, you know, personnel is a big aspect of it. Like, they have to look at their roster and say, we need to add speed. at an athleticism at wide receiver this offseason. Like that has to be near the top of the list. I think they did a good job rebuilding that offensive line. You can always get better. You can

always get deeper. But I think even ahead of that, I would want speed at wide receiver for them. So the Lombardi, I didn't like watching the, you know, Joe Lombardi offenses. I will, you know, just if his, you know, relatives are listening and say, hey, it wasn't all Lombardi. To 2021, they were fourth in offensive DVOA. The defense and the special team suck. That's why they didn't make the playoffs. It was not the offense was not at fault. Now, last year, if you're going to give me the 19th ranked offense with Justin Herbert

at quarterback, I'm going to say, yes, the coaching needs to be a lot better because given his talent, that should really never be the case. So we'll see what happens there. I didn't have a, like, I didn't read the Keller Moore News in my mind, you know, like with the other ones,

with Hackett and Bill O'Brien, my mind went to a certain place. I had a take, let's let it rip. Yeah. An extra point taken. I would probably be more in like the, 60-40-ish range as opposed to what you were saying. Like, I'm kind of on the fence.

Is this going to work out? Maybe, is it definitely going to work out? I wouldn't risk everything I have on that, which leads me to my third point here, which is also transitions. Kellyn Moore related. The Cowboys process this off season seems deeply misguided to me. I mean, I'm ripping everybody. You did it.

You got a common theme. You were right, man. it was Jets, what are we doing? Belichick, what are we doing? Am I wrong? Somebody explain all this to me slowly. Please, go ahead. Tell me I'm wrong on any of these.

You know I love the off-season. This is my time to shine. The games are almost over. I can look at what teams do and form strong opinions and I can be wrong, I can be right, whatever. But the opinions come more naturally to me in the off-season than they do in season.

Here's my question. Do you write out your takes? Are you reading off of like notes that says, my take is like, I have some notes. Yeah. Right. But like I'm saying, do you type out the actual like take you're going to give like word for word? Oh, that I do.

The title, yes. Because otherwise I stumble. So I'm curious, right? So you've written down because if this were my notes, I would have written down Cowboys bad, Belichick bad, Jets bad. Those are my whole notes. For like, for what I want to say in the headline. I like that you have to like find some synonyms to make sure they sound different.

I tried to spice them up a little bit. So as you said, mutual parting of waste, Kellyn Moore, and the Cowboys. More was the Cowboys OC from 2019 to 2022. Some numbers for you, Ben, that I think we're probably surprised people. He coached 52 games with Dak Prescott as his quarterbacks, as his quarterback. If you look at their EPA per play in those 52 games, they performed like the third best offense in the entire NFL from 2019 to 2022. So that goes to your point of, hey, he was able to build a very good offense. For most of the time, not all the time, we'll get to that.

For most of the time, if you zoom out, take a big sample, look at it. Overall, was the offense good with Dak Prescott? Yes, the offense was very good with Dak Prescott. If you're a Chargers fan, you say, if the offense could be very good with Dak, Prescott, that our offense can be very good with Justin Herbert. Even last year, if you look at just the Dak Prescott snaps, I mean, if you look at their overall numbers, they're going to be different because they're starting Cooper Rush. If you look at just the Dak Prescott snaps, they performed like the fifth best

offense in the NFL. They performed better than the Bengals, then the Niners, than the Jaguars, in terms of EPA per play, when they had Dak Prescott out there. Now, the last game was a disaster, and I'm not going to tell you that doesn't matter. It does matter. 12 points in a playoff game, you lose to Brock Purdy. You feel like you had a chance to get to the NFC championship game for the first time in 27 years, maybe get to the Super Bowl, and it didn't happen, and your offense did not play well. We talked about that game. last week, but you can't base like big moves, in my opinion, on one game, especially when you don't have a great alternative. Like, if you would have told me, hey, you know what,

DAC needs a new voice, the offense needs a new voice, the offense hasn't played well in the playoffs, multiple years in a row. We're going in a different direction. We're going to hire person X, and this is going to be an upgrade. I would have said, all right, I don't know that I definitely agree with that, but I can understand it. But that's a bit, They're just plugging in Mike McCarthy. And you're Ben, this is their, this is their plan. Mike McCarthy, according to reports, is going to be calling plays for the Dallas Cowboys. Now, listen to the, think of the numbers I just laid out there, okay?

Third best offense overall with Dak Prescott. Fifth best offense last year. Like, I don't think the ceiling, the room for growth is what the Cowboys might think it is with Mike McCarthy. And if you're a Cowboys fan and you're saying, well, no, this. this comes down to playoff success on what planet if you're a Cowboys fan? Zoom forward to next January and it's a playoff game and you're saying I feel better because Mike McCarthy has more on his plate during this divisional round game against the 49ers. I feel better about this now than I did last year.

Like no Cowboys fan is going to admit to that. So this really feels to me like change for the sake of change or maybe some type of ultimatum that, hey, we got to do something. And Mike McCarthy is saying, if I'm going to go down, I'm going to go down, swinging, and take over. But again, I like range of outcomes.

I mean, what is the percentage that going from Kellyn Moore and now Mike McCarthy's offense, Mike McCarthy calling the place, and Mike McCarthy's still doing all the other stuff with game management and the other stuff a head coach needs to do? What are the chances that is going to lead

to an upgrade in the Cowboys offense and an upgrade for the Cowboys team? I think it's very slim. and I think the Cowboys, I don't know if they'll regret this decision, but it will certainly be a decision we look back on and go, well, yeah, that didn't really produce the outcomes that they were thinking they were going to produce. What say you?

What say I? You had a big laugh in there, yeah. Anytime you can hire and then allow to consolidate power, the guy who once he left Green Bay, Aaron Rogers resumed winning MVP's, you got to do it. The second you can get the big, Biggest example of addition by subtraction in NFL coaching in the last 10 years, the second you can get that guy in the building and then give him more power.

You got to get it done, Jerry. I have what? Mike McCarthy sat at the opening press conference and told you he lied to you. And now you're mutually agreeing to part ways with Kellynne Moore's. You can let him get more control? He just told you he lied to you. Why are you believing him now? All right.

But what if he does another third? tour of the pro football focus offices. Then do we give him the benefit? This is such fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Like, if McCarthy was going to solve the problem, the way he built, he was going to solve the problem by being a renewed head coach who had right postseason experience, who was a veteran coach who could consult, like, who could like take a young offensive coordinator and Kellyn Moore and help him hone his stuff, get a strong defensive coordinator in the building

like Dan Quinn and take a roster that was so, so, so talented and propel it, taking the next step, push it into the championship game into the playoffs. If he was going to do that, he would have done it. He doesn't have the goods that he builds you on. And you just let him chase the young OC out of the broom and you gave him play calling. It's going to look so bad. And when we fully encapsulate the missed opportunity for Dallas with the The Zika contract with Amari Cooper leaving the building

and how those contracts were handled. The misfortune, right? Some of its luck, the Michael Gallup injury off his extension, now the Tony Pollard injury. Like, there's absolutely luck parts of it. But when we fully encapsulate the offensive bungling that occurred with the, even like the DAC contract drama,

just nonsense, just a complete waste of one of the strongest, most solid, most powerful offensive cores that we've seen over the last few years. Like you said, they were third in EPA since 2020. Like this was a championship core. And great defenses.

forget defenses that rank top five back to back years. Oh, you weren't done. I was going to land on the defense. The defense is the kicker. No, but it really is because you have the core. That's what's 10. That's what's like reliable. That's what's tenable. That's what's sticky. That's what's reproducible year over year over year. Quinn walked in. They got like 19 picks out of Trayvon Diggs. They got the defensive season that's supposed to be the championship run. They couldn't handle the Niners. And then we all came into this season and we said, well, obviously the defense is going to regress. They can't do that again.

And they did. And you got ousted by the Niners again. Yeah. What? On what leg is Mike McCarthy standing on that he has the clout in the building to get this power struggle done? I was astounded when I saw that not only is more out, but more is out because McCarthy's calling plays. That's unbelievable. Yeah.

Oftentimes we look at the results of a season, say, all right, that team wasn't as good as they were. you know, that team's lying to itself. It was whatever. Seven and one in one score games. Like, the truth really, in my opinion is that the Cowboys were one of like six legit Super Bowl contenders this year. I mean, there was a large body of work to suggest that they were a really, really good team. They didn't come through in their final game. We see that happen. But then to as a result of that one game, really, to make the change that they did in the manner that they did. And now expect that to put you over the top. Again, after 27 years of not getting past that divisional round, weekend and this is the move that's going to get you past the divisional round. I don't really

see how any Cowboys fan can be confident that that's going to happen. All right, Ben, what do you got for your final take here before I hit you with the extra point taken? All right. This is Bengals take. Bengals lose another nail bite or another classic to the Chiefs pre take to the actual take is just the Bengals having the Chief's number is awesome. Like I don't, I refuse to get into Mahomes versus Burrow. Mahomes is clearly a better quarterback than Burrow. But like the second that ball came out of Mahomes' hand randomly on the snap, I was like, yeah, it's because it's Bengals' Chiefs.

The Bengals will just forever and always be in a one-score game of the Chiefs. They'll be coming back in the fourth quarter. It's very clearly these two teams are highly contested. They don't like each other. I love those games. So the Bengals are a FC contender, like independent of Burroughs conversation, Mahomes conversation, coaching staff, who goes where. Like, we're going to see it all play out for the next few years.

However, the official take is this. Roads going to start getting tough for the Bengals this offseason. The first reason is because they're very likely to extend Joe Burrow this summer. For those who don't know, you are eligible to offer an extension to a rookie contract player after they have accrued three seasons of play. Burrow just finished his third season. He is now eligible for an extension. Most teams don't try to chase down that extension right away. They're happy to let the quarterback play for a fourth year, way cheaper than market value, right?

it's a great bargain. The Ravens feel great about doing it for a fifth year, for a sixth year. Most teams let these contracts run all the way. But the Bengals historically

have aggressively pursued early extensions for their quarterbacks. They extended Carson Palmer immediately after his second year in Cincinnati when he was eligible. They extended Andy Dolan immediately after his third year when he was eligible.

Part of the reason is because the Bengals don't have like a bajillion dollar owner, right? They're a family-owned business. don't have as big of a war chest. And so it benefits them to sign these bigger, longer deals,

less guarantees. They don't have to deal with putting a ton of money into escrow. It's something that their team is generally working on. But it's going to behoove them uniquely in their situation to sign a burrow deal. Ian Rappaport has reported they're going to try to do that this year. Joe Burdow has said explicitly he'd like to play his entire career in Cincinnati. There's a good chance that the Bengals,

earlier than the other teams who drafted quarterbacks in the 2020 class, are going to transition out of the rookie contract, rookie contract quarterback window and into the second contract quarterback window. That's a harder contract window to win in. It is not impossible. It is far better to have a really good quarterback on whatever contract than it just be like running around with a rookie contract QB, right? Like the Eagles make it look easy, but it's really not.

You know, like, you know, three of the four quarterbacks playing in a conference championship weekend were on rookie deals. And every time that happens, everybody's like, this is why you don't pay Dak Prescott. And it's just not correct. Like you got to pay the good quarterbacks. The Bengals are going to probably do it a little bit earlier. This folded in with the players that are rising free agents for the Bengals means that they're now at a point where they might start enduring major roster turnover

plus coordinator turnover, right? Brian Callahan, Lou and Romo both lining up interviews with the Cardinals with the potential for one or maybe two to leave in this head coaching cycle. Free agents this offseason. Jesse Bates, Bon Bell, Ila, Apple, Jermaine Pratt. that's four of the back seven defensive starters. Those guys are all on the field for a vast majority of snaps. Also included a Trey Flowers, who's their like tight end eraser,

Hayden Hurst starting tight end, and Samagee Pryne, who's their backup running back, but he played more snaps than Joe Mixon did this week. And Joe Mixon's an important name because Joe Mixon is about a $10 million cap hit next year, and his contract extends in 2024, along with T. Higgins, along with Chidobie Ousie, Trey Hendrickson, and DJ Reader, Logan Wilson, the middle lineback.

those are the four best players on the Bengals defense. Of the Bengals, 11 defensive starters, eight of them. And I would argue it's seven of the eight best players on their defense are either free agents this year or next year. So Cincinnati is reaching that inflection point where they got quarterback right, they got coaching right. And critically, they also drafted some stars, Jesse Bates, Jamar Chase, T. Higgins. They hit on some nice free agents, Cheeto, Woosier, T. Hendrickson. they did everything right.

Now is the part where it starts becoming thinner margins. Now is the part where it's about tightening your belts. Now it's part of how long can you do it right and how well can you do it right in the margins. So Cincinnati, here to stay. Improvement from Joe Burrow this year was beautiful to see. He's a different quarterback.

He's an improved quarterback. Zach Taylor got better as a coach. They fixed the offensive line and they got unlucky with injuries. Like a lot of their issues from last year they addressed. They are an impressive team that's going to hang around in the AFC. But this is where it starts to get tough. So Bengals' difficult road coming down the mountain here. I think they're going to be fine.

I think that there probably aren't five other franchises, maybe not three other franchises. I would rather be if I were just starting a team right now than the Bengals. So I hear what you're saying. I agree with that. I mean, that's going to be the problem for, not the problem, but the challenge for any team.

I mean, Joe Burroughs going to be making over $50 million per year. There's no doubt about that. He's going to deserve that money because he's been fantastic so far. He's the player you dream about drafting and being the face of your franchise for 10, 12, 15 years, whatever, because it makes everything else easy. So you're going to have Burrow. You're going to have Chase still there. As long as the offensive line is competent, you can fill in the pieces around it.

And I think the Anirumo point there is a very good one. I mean, talk about defensive coordinators who you trust or all the coordinators. Going back to my theme, who can do more with less. I mean, he is a guy who absolutely fits that category. And what I like about him is that, like, you don't need to have a top five defense if you're the Bengals. Like, it's kind of like the Chiefs. No all pros on that defensive roster.

It's amazing. And Lou still gets it done against elite quarterbacks. Yeah, you can be middling for regular season, but guess what? When it's a playoff game, you're going to have faith and confidence that he's going to cook something up that gives you a chance to win and, heck, gives you a chance to be competitive. So, yeah, to me, if I'm the Bengals, like that's a. no-brainer. Hey, Joe, it will make you the highest paid quarterback in the NFL tomorrow. Now, there's a lot of wrinkles with that. It was a lot easier before that to Sean Watson contract to say

that and make it easy. Now, there's the difference with, all right, well, what are the guarantees? What are you planning on doing here? How much is Burrow care about maximizing his value versus getting something done that just says highest paid quarterback in the NFL? Is he willing to do a Mahomes deal? That length. That makes it a lot easier for the team. If you can just lock in at that number. So there will definitely be some hurdles and some stuff. They need to figure out for sure. And you're right. I mean, you have to draft well. You have to adapt. You have to see how your injury luck plays out. But man, you got the quarterback. The receivers are there at least for next year. And then you can kind of replenish that. And to me, I would just continue to invest

offensive line, wide receiver, and then tell Lou, you can figure some things out on defense. you might not be investing there as much. I don't know. Yeah, I don't know how much longer Lou is going to hang around. If that's what lose the deals. Lose getting. So I don't want to speak on something I don't fully understand in terms of the escrow. I'm not sure if they can do a home's contract in terms of rolling guarantees.

I'm not sure how much money that means they have to put into escrow. And like that's the big thing for the Brown family right now is the amount of when we talk about putting money in escrow, when you guarantee money on future years of deal, you have to put that money in a bank in escrow and then you can't touch it, you can't use it. And for most teams that isn't super impactful because the owners just have so much money that it's like, ah, $300 million.

For the Bengals and the Browns, it matters a little bit more. Yeah, you got to put the cash away and not just Joe Burd, but Jamar Chase, anti-Higgins, right? Look at a wide receiver contracts. Those guys are $20 million players. So it's, it's, the finances are not clean. I don't think I agree with you that like, there's only like three teams I'd rather be than the Bengals.

This is a really hard road to walk. Like they're up there. I understand where you're at. Like I'm like thinking like, okay, Chargers versus versus Bengals like, ah, you know,

Eagles versus Bengals. Ah, you know, whatever. But like, what's important to understand, like, I think it's,

it's easy to say the margins are small and go, okay, like the margins are small. But it doesn't fully encapsulate what happens. Like they draft Dax Hill in the first round this year, safety out of Michigan. They couldn't get them on the field. right? Like he just, he was struggling defensively.

He's making issues special teams. He's just not getting them good reps. Jesse Bates, they had like a difficult contract situation. He was holding out and then he decided to come into camp and play on the tag for them. I imagine Jesse Bates is outside of Cincinnati this year. They hoped to draft Dax Hill to replace him. I don't know if you can trust that. And even if you decided to go for it, you'd really like for the other veteran safety to be there to help him out.

But Von Bell is potentially leaving this year because he's, also a free agent. It's this, and that sounds so small, but it just starts to happen everywhere. It just starts to pile up where you lose these established players. You have to risk a little bit more. And if you just miss one first round pick, like Jackson Carman's a great example. They miss a second round pick on Jackson Carmen and now all of a sudden an offensive line injury becomes debilitating, right? It's that sort of stuff where it's, it's the little things that accrue that just start to pile up in the scenes and you can't solve them anymore because you have a bunch of money because of the Joe Burrow contract. It's not like a, a,

big thing. It's just the accumulation of little things that like the team to compare this to is the chiefs who just let Tyree Kill leave, who just had a rookie safety playing with two rookie cornerers with a rookie wide receiver and a rookie punt returner. They just had all these young guys just like sixth round pictures like playing because Mahomes is so good that they can they can do that. They can get away with those little things. It's so hard for other teams to pull that off. It really, really is. And so it's the accumulation of little stuff, not a immediately, but over time that I think it, the Bengals, again, like, it's just, it's a high wire act. It is tough to do.

You can definitely spin that into, man, this was a wasted, this was a tough kind of, not, I don't want to say wasted opportunity, but you're right. I mean, we always think the windows open forever, and I think the window's going to be open for a long time for Joe Burrow, but stuff has to go right in a certain year. We've talked about it. Luck has to go your way. Injuries have to go your way, you know, chemistry. All these things actually do matter.

And so there is a scenario. and not to depress Bengals fans where, you know, three, five years down the road, you're going, man, 2022 was really the year or 2021 was really the year where we should have just banked one there because all these problems surface. Again, I think they're going to be okay, but, you know, that scenario exists. I think they'd be okay, too. Let me ask you this really quick. Bengals Chiefs goes to overtime.

Harrison Bucker misses the kick. Bengals win it in overtime. Right now, if you had to pick Bengals, Eagles, who would you pick? Woo. Baby. Bengals, well, I started leaning Eagles

over chief, so I think I would go, man, I don't know, I'm really on defense now. Yeah, I did, I think I go Eagles.

Let me go on the record real quick. I think I would go Eagles, because I think they are past Rush could really give the Bengals problems, but go ahead. I do too. I watched some of the Lou

defensive games against Lamar and against Russian quarterbacks, and man, I tell you, like, if, like, AJ Brown,

on his on Eli Apple, but man, like Bengals, defense, Eagles offense would have been a sight to see. I'd tell you in terms of like a heavyweight fight. I would have been hard pressed not to pick like a 10-3 Patriots Rams Super Bowl redux in that game. We're just the Eagles pass versus dominating on one side and lose just putting Jalen Hertz and a headlock

on the other side. I think they would have a really nice shot against the Eagles. So yeah, it's, I don't know. Again, I think the Bengals are back in the playoffs and they're going to be winning the north. It's not like, you know, shutter and lights up. It's just now it, now is the hard part. now it gets harder.

Yeah. All right. There you go. Extra point taken. We've talked about this man many times, so I didn't want to make one of my points, but I feel like there have been some changes this week. And I just want to go on the record with a prediction, Ben.

I think Tom Brady is the San Francisco 49ers, week one starting quarterback in 2023. Listen, everybody's... 65 minutes in. I thought about making it my first one. I didn't know where to put it. I felt like just ripping some teams for their coaching changes first before I hit you with this one at the end.

Make sure people listen to the end. Talk about jab, jab, jab, jab cross. Holy smokes. I'm just looking at like Kyle Shanahan's frustration after that game and George Kittles' frustration after that game in another year where the quarterback injuries doom them. And I'm looking at Tom Brady. Where is he going to end up with mentioned teams? Is it the Raiders?

Is it the Jets? Is there somewhere else? where he might go. And this is the team that to me, where I can just see it in my head. We know he's got the hometown connection there. We don't know if he wants to play on the West Coast, but whatever. You know, 49ers connection there. You've got McCaffrey-Dibow, I, you kiddle, all under contract next year. You've got a smart offensive coach and Kyle Shanahan. If you're the Niners, you're not, this isn't like you have to give up picks to get this guy. You can literally one year, free agent. Let's try it out for 2023 and see what happens.

And so what kind of spurred this was the news today? Brock Purdy per Adam Schefter will require a six-month recovery period for a torn UCL. I mean, six-month recovery period. And now you're my second-year player who were basing all this on seven games that he started. That doesn't sound like Kyle Scha. Eight. Was it eight that he started? Was it eight?

I don't know. You're probably right. I'm being annoying. Keep going. That doesn't, you know, if I can't pick up. your college, she had a hand going, you sign me up, sign me up for that, regardless of how much he likes Bernie, because there's just so much uncertainty with the injury there. And you say, well, no, but they invested in Trey Lance. All right, maybe. I'm sure he has some questions about

Trey Lance. I'm sure he will be intrigued. You will say, God, I'm so annoyed. I've been so close. I can't take this anymore. And what's the one thing we know about Brady? He's going to avoid those big hits. He's been very durable. He has not missed a game in what, six, six years, seven years, something like that, the guy has not missed a start. And so I think if you're Brady, you're saying that's a place where, wow, there's nowhere else I can go that's going to have the same weapons I have there, the same offensive coach I have there. By the way, I probably don't have to score 30 points a game because the defense is still going to be pretty good, even if it has a new coordinator. And if you're the Niners, you say, man, we push our chips in a lot. We did it with Lance. We did it with McCaffrey. We're just like, we want to win a Super Bowl now really bad. and you still have all those guys, you still have Trent Williams. I think that's going to be, end up being the marriage that we see take place in March

and Brady is going to go to San Francisco. Your thoughts as we close this out. No matter what the 49ers do a quarterback, it's going to be deranged. It's going to be insane. If you thought like, let's trade up multiple first round picks to go get a one-year starter in the FCS

who's 19 years old, was nuts. Just wait until you see Kyle who just went to his third NFC championship game in five years, four years, four years? Four years? I can never remember because it's 2023 right now but there was the 2022 season.

So I always get thrown off by the numbers. Regardless, third NFC championship game in four years, no ring. This man's about to go bananas in the paint. I didn't realize it until you said it, but yeah, absolutely Brady is a nineer. 100% Brady's a

nineer preseason win total of 14 and a half or something and just like the most ridiculous offense you've ever seen and they're gonna lose

in the NFC championship game to the Saints you know just some stupid game for no reason right now like not

it was a lion you were trying to think of a random team yeah yeah exactly Dan Campbell's gonna beat him Tom's gonna get banged up their backup, they're going to have the best backup. They're going to have Derek Carr in the building as the backup.

They know he's going to have to play reps. Still not going to matter. Our producer, Chris Sotton asked us before the show of the Niners or a curse team. They're not cursed but Kyle Shanahan is. And bringing Tom Brady to the Bay Area will be the final curse. It will be the most egregious thing he's done in the face of whatever God he offended. And he will be punished for it, rightfully. Well, we talked about previously, like, what does Brady care about at this point in his career?

And I think we didn't know we were throwing out there. If he is like, hey, I want to win one more ring here. I mean, that is like far and away. You stay in the NFC. You're in that division. Very winnable with that roster if you're Tom Brady. So I'm going on the record. January 30th, Tom Brady will be starting for the 49ers in week one.

Let's see how dumb I look by the time March rolls around. All right. That will do it for this episode. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Thank you to Ben Solac, additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ram Gopal. Stay tuned for the island on this feed. I'll be back Thursday with the scramble next week.

Ben and I will be coming live to you. Well, not live, but we will be coming to you from Glendale, Arizona, the site of the Super Bowl. But again, we're going to talk about not only that matchout, but all the other offseason happenings around the NFL. So if you are a fan of the other 30 to 30 teams, don't worry. We'll have you covered. I'm sure we'll have more coaching news. By then, I'll have some teams to rip for their offseason.

decision making. I'll just pick another three and go boom, boom, boom on them. And I'll be very predictable with my takes there. All right, thanks to everybody for listening. And we will talk to you next week on Extra Point Pick.