The Ringer NFL Show - Fantasy Fallout From a Wild NFL Weekend | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: September 3, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck break down all of the biggest cuts and trades from NFL cutdown weekend and what those moves mean for your fantasy team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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or an delicious cocktail today. Belvedere is a quality choice, drinking responsibly used to. Welcome to the Dynasty Football podcast presented by the Ringer Podcast Network. My name is Danny Heifitz, and I am joined by the one, the only, the all-time, or the hero we need, the analysts we deserve. The Dark Knight, Danny Kelly. What is on your mind, D.K.? I'm just trying to make sense of all the crazy action from over the weekend, man.

It was a lot of stuff went down. A lot of trades, a lot of cuts, obviously. A lot of guys getting claimed on waivers and things like that. Kind of hard to sort through. But that's what we're here for today. Dude, a lot happened. Yeah, we're going to go over the whole weekend. The crazy weekend, like almost like a half dozen teams had pretty big fantasy implications change.

Over Labor Day weekend. So we're going to be breakdown the biggest. and most actionable fantasy fallout from all that, whether you have drafted already and want to make a trade or a free agent move or maybe you haven't and need some last minute. Advice, we have some answers for you. One big picture note before we dive in,

there's obviously a lot going on this weekend. And if it feels like that was different from previous years, it kind of is. So like training camp rosters in the NFL, the real NFL are 90 players, but the in-season rosters are 53. So that's a big cutdown. So the lead used to do it in two waves.

They used to go from rosters being 90 to 75, and then they'd cut 75 to 53 guys. Now the lead just does 90 dudes to 53 and one weekend. So that's 37 players times 32 teams. So in 48 hours, you have about 1100 players become free agents. So that's just chaos. It's chaos for teams that want to dip into that 1100 player free agent pool. It's scramble for teams to fill out the roster. So as long as there's a 90 to 53 person cut down in the week before the season,

It's probably going to remain a late scramble. So if you kind of got screwed by something this weekend, maybe you drafted good old Damien Williams on the Chiefs in your third round, and now you're kind of pissed. Just a good reminder that this is probably the new normal, and it's worth doing your fantasy draft as close to the season as humanly possible, because this is probably going to keep happening. Yeah.

I mean, like, especially in dynasty leagues, man, so many players that you kind of like thinking are really exciting just like ended up cut or on practice squads or something like that. So, but yeah, it's, it's, there was a lot of movement, a lot of, uh, well, there was a handful of really high impact fantasy moves over the weekend that definitely kind of messed up some people's plans, I think. And so we're, we're going to go one by one through the biggest stories, pick out some of the winners and losers, I think, from each of those moves and kind of figure out what it means for the fantasy landscape. Yeah, so let's try to fix people's plans.

So let's dive in. So the first big move that happened of the many this weekend. So the bills cut LaShaul McCoy on Saturday. His cap pit was going to be just to tick over $9 million. Instead, they cut him and his cap pit will be almost $3 million to not have him on the team. That was Saturday. And then on Sunday, the Chiefs signed McCoy. It's a one-year deal for $3 million guaranteed. It could be worth up to $4 million.

So, D.K., who are kind of the winners and losers from the bills losing McCoy and the chief's getting him? Well, the initial reaction was it was a big win for Devin Singletary, the rookie running back in Buffalo, who has a chance to, I think, over the season kind of take over the lead role there obviously he has to contend with frank gore is still there t j yelled and i think is kind of a past catching type specialist for them um and per the athletics joe buscalia uh singletary won't be consistently featured back at least not early in the season they're going to take a committee approach as brandon bean confirmed on saturday so um i think early on there's not like a super clear winner but i think long term in

terms of this whole season i think devon singletarian's gets a huge bump from me because I think he'll just end up being the most dynamic and most fantasy relevant player in that offense. And they're obviously a team that likes to run. So he's a guy who I think was kind of one of the clear winners, at least in terms of with the bills. Also, never underestimate Frank Gore. Yeah, that's true. Yeah. So they also have Frank Gore. They're in T.G. Eldon, but Singletary was the third rounder in this year's draft. Dika, you are our draft experts. So how does Devin Singleton, what kind of runner is he? How is he different than McCoy? How is he different than Yeldon and Frank Gore there in the backfield? He was drawing a lot

of comparisons actually to Lashon McCoy early on in the draft season, I guess. And then he ran real slow at the combine. I think it changed people's opinions on him. He ran like a four-six, I think. So people were like, oh, maybe he doesn't have the juice to be an effective back. But he was, you know, in college, one of the most elusive running backs in the nation. Very, very slick moves. Like just like can stop on a dime and make guys miss that kind of thing. So he was, again, one of the most best tackle breakers in college football. And so I think that's kind of like what people are seeing.

He does not have elite high-end speed. But, I mean, as we saw, I think so far we've seen with like David Montgomery, who a lot of people were worried he was too slow also. Like just having just being able to like move quickly and break tackles in the short areas is more important than being able to hit a home run. So I like Singletary a lot. So I think he'll be good in that offense. So, D.K., would you say that week one, you might want to start Frank Gore if you had

to start anybody on the bills and by week eight maybe you're starting Devin Singletary? Yeah, probably. I mean, I don't know if I would start anyone in that. in that trio right away to kind of see how it goes. I mean, if you have other options, just go with other options. But yeah, early on, I'm guessing they'll lean on the veteran. And then as they move along, Singletary will get more comfortable. And he'll by the end of the season be the lead guy there.

Shout out Florida Atlantic and Devon Singletary. So that's the Bills. What about the Chiefs? So McCoy's obviously a winner here, but who are some of the losers on Kansas City? I don't know. To me, this feels like disastrous for Damien Williams because he was getting taken, I believe in like the second round, man. He was going really high.

He was always way too high for my taste. I think I avoided him in almost every draft. In fact, every draft, I don't think I took him anywhere. So it's disastrous for him in the sense that he's not going to be the clear lead back there. At the very least, it's going to be a committee. And maybe at worst, McCoy is going to be the clear starter and get like the line share that carries and targets there. So it's also not great for people who were hoping Darwin Thompson would kind of ascend the depth chart, which was me. I took Darwin Thompson in a couple drafts and was hoping that kind of like the singletary thing, by like midway through the season he'd be the starter.

That looks much, much less likely now. Darwin Thompson's still a great dynasty buy, but it kind of kills his fantasy stock, I think, right now, just because I think McCoy and Williams will be kind of the one-two punch there. So, yeah, so Damon Williams, yeah, he was, he emerged. as the clear best running back on the Chiefs after the cut cream hunt. He had a couple excellent games last year, including 103 yards in what was the fantasy championship for most people on Christmas Eve Eve.

But as Craig, Craig here loves to note, he's never had more than 50 carries in his season. So now that he would, I mean, would you be drafting McCoy over Williams? Like, especially for people who haven't drafted yet

where there's still a lot of value in sites that haven't updated the rankings, would you be taking McCoy higher than Williams at this point? I would be. Yeah. I have more confidence, I think, at this point, that they want McCoy to be kind of a guy. I mean, he's got history with Reed. You know, he's proven himself to be able to handle a heavy load in the past. Obviously, he's 31 now. And, you know, he wasn't himself last season in terms of his ability to break tackles and all that. But I don't know. I still think he's got enough to, you know, be a very productive back, especially in this offense. And so I've got way more confidence. is McCoy. I think the amount of money they gave him, right, there's like $3 million, potentially could be

$4 million, and just how quickly they signed him kind of just shows that they have a plan for him in my mind. And so I would, I think if the rankings, you know, to update the rankings or whatever, I'm going to put probably McCoy just right above Williams. And

I'm guessing it'll be a committee. And, you know, maybe McCoy will get hurt and Williams will end up being the lead guy again. But I think you have to drop Williams way, way down. And I put him a little bit behind McCoy now. I think this muddies the water a little bit for kind of the Chiefs. And for a bit the bills, I think this is probably a smart football move by the Chiefs, but I think you're going to now get the best of Damien Williams, because like we said, he's never had more than 13 carries

in a game. So we might actually get last year's Damien Williams this year, where he's extremely efficient and is doing his best Kareem Hunt impression from a fantasy perspective. And McCoy will bring, you know, his connection with Andy Reed to the table. And the Chiefs might actually have won more than any fantasy perspective has. Yeah, yeah, I definitely agree. I mean, it's definitely way more of a committee. And it's going to be interesting to see how people are how confident how confident people are in starting any of these guys going forward. There would be value there, but unfortunately, it seems that people have probably overinvested so much in Damien Williams at this point without knowing that this would happen, that it's just,

it's really tough for everyone involved. Yeah. But probably a boon for the people who had McCoy and the bills. One thing I did want to note is 49 qualified rushers last year, McCoy was 48th in yards per attempt, but whether that's being on the bills or McCoy's being washed, we will find out. But getting in a new offense is probably going to be good enough to maybe get

25 spots higher on that list. Yeah. So one name we did not mention is how this affects Carlos Hyde, because Carlos Hyde is no longer on the Chiefs. He got traded to the Texans, one of a flurry. I think this qualifies as a flurry. Maybe like a downpour of trades the Texans did

this year. Sorry, this weekend. So they traded, the Texans traded Interior Lyman Martinez Rankin to the Chiefs for Carloside. Then in a separate deal, they traded left tackle Laramie Tunsell. Sorry, they got, the Texans got Laramie Tunsell, Kenny Stills, and then 2024th rounder

and a 2021-6 rounder from Miami. And then Miami got Houston's 20-201st rounder, Houston's 2021 first rounder. the 2020, sorry, not that many 20s, 2021 second rounder, tackle Julian Davenport, who is one of the more underperforming tackles in the league. And then they also got Johnson Bademosi,

badmose, really what this boils down to for fantasy perspective. And that got to get into the Jadavion Clowny trade in a moment. But all of this might be terrible for Houston's long-term prospects. Who knows? But for 2019, this is really good for their offense, which is all we care about right now.

So from a fantasy perspective, and we can just ignore all the draft picks. We'll let Kevin Clark and Robert Mays talk about what the impact of their 2021 second rounder is in Miami. But for right now, how does this impact Houston's offense from a fantasy perspective for this year? I mean, I think the biggest takeaway immediately

is it's a big boost, potentially for quarterback Deshawn Watson, just because he hasn't had a good left tackle in all of last year and you know for a lot of his career obviously Dwayne brown they traded previously to the Seahawks but yeah so this is huge and potentially for his left side his blind side clearly you know sacks are somewhat related or very strongly related to the quarterback so a lot of times he'll run and kind of hold trying to hold on to the ball and make plays and doesn't get real the ball as quickly as a lot of other quarterback so the sacks are somewhat related to him but just

having sort of a trustworthy guy on his blind side could potentially be big. So I think right off the bat, that's a good thing for them. And adding Kenny Stills is sort of another sort of under the radar, less, I guess, heralded move that I like a lot too, just because it gives them a lot more depth in their receiver core, because before this trade, you know, there was obviously Will Fuller and Kiki QT, I don't know how to say that. I think it's QT actually. I've been saying it wrong the whole time.

Both of those guys, Will Fuller and QT are very talented and, you know, when they're all healthy, like that offense could really hum. But they haven't been super reliable. QT's been having injuries basically the entire time he's been with the team. Fuller's got multiple knee injuries on his history and I don't know how reliable he is right now. So getting Stills kind of is a hedge for both of those guys in 20 or in 2019 just because, you know, stills can be that deep threat. he's got tons of speed. He can kind of play that willful or stretch the defense role, but you can also run out of a slot and be a threat in the slot if that's what they need

him to do. So I think that was kind of a good move for them, a smart move. They were trying to, obviously Miami was trying to get rid of stills just because he was outspoken about, you know, multiple different things, kind of budding heads with the head coach there. And so, yeah, so I think they were just trying to get rid of him. And this is a great landing spot for him in terms of the offensive scheme. So I like that a lot.

Yeah, playing Jay-Z to own the libs and Miami. But with the Texans. So yeah, I mean, I like what you said where it's kind of a hedge for them. So they have a talented receiving core. Will Fuller, but Will Fuller has played 17 games in the last two years. DeAndre Hopkins has been a machine, but he's played hurt a lot. And then Kiki QT had injuries to both hamstrings last year and then already had an ankle injury in the preseason. So then suddenly that's a pretty thin core because their tight ends are, I would, it's not only the least accomplished tight end group in the league.

Probably in the last few years the team has put together in terms of what they've done and been able to do pass catching wise is the Texans have no real contributors at tight end. So now in the last few weeks they've added Duke Johnson

who's one of the better receiving backs in the league. And now they have still, so they've really added a lot of firm depth where if everyone's healthy, this might be the best past catching group in the league.

But now even if Will Fuller and QT aren't around, it's suddenly, it's not a disaster. anymore, but right. Yeah. Gives them some insurance. Well, speaking of Duke Johnson, how do you see the relationship between Carlos Hyde? So obviously they traded a fourth rounder a few weeks ago for Duke Johnson. Ken and turned into a third, yeah. It could turn into a third based on incentives. And as Evan Silver established the run noted, it was the most draft capital teams parted with for a running back in a trade since Trent Richardson was traded to the Colts for a first rounder earlier this decade.

Now they turn around and they trade like a guard that was going to be a backup for them. Or sorry, going to be a backup for them for Hyde. So how do you see that backfield working out now with Lamar Miller out with the torn ACL? They cut a couple of their undrafted free agents that we thought might have been able to contribute. So how do you see the Johnson Hyde dynamic working out? Again, you cannot use, it's hard to use logic with the tech. I said this, I said this when they traded for Duke. That is kind of hard to read the T leaves with this team.

And then they made these crazy trades over the weekend. And it only strengthened my belief that, like, who the hell knows what they're going to do kind of thing. So like banking on anything can be pretty foolhardy for for Bill O'Brien and just in general. But that said, I have just my gut is that Duke Johnson is going to be the clear lead guy there. I think he's far more talented. This is, you know, this may, hopefully this isn't going to be a situation like it was in Cleveland where, you know, you have a head coach or play caller that just wants hide to be in there for, for whatever. reason over a guy like Chubb and Johnson,

I'm just hoping it's not going to be that situation. And I don't think it will be. I just, you know, whatever. I don't, there's no logic to it, but that's just my gut. So to me, Duke Johnson's still the clear lead guy. I think they were getting, they got Hyde because they didn't have, they weren't high quite high enough on. Hide enough.

Or, uh, Karan Higden or any of their backup guys. And so he, to me, Hyde is just a veteran presence. that they can, in their mind anyway, that they can trust if Duke can't handle like a full, full load. So I don't know. I think Duke Johnson will be the lead guy there and he's going to have a potential to kind of just go off.

But the trade for Hyde definitely kind of throws a wrinkle in it. So this is such a strange situation now because a year ago for the Browns, Carlos, a year ago the Browns had just come off in 0-16 season and our Carlos Hyde was their leadback. Duke Johnson was kind of their third down pass catching guy. and then Nick Chubb was this high draft pick that was kind of sitting behind both of them. Now they're in a weird situation where Duke Johnson might be the starter

and Hyde is kind of expected to be a warm body behind him. But just one year ago in the six games that Hyde was on the Browns, he was getting 20 touches per game. And Duke Johnson, for the Browns last year, had 5.4 touches per game. So I think there's this assumption that because the Texans shelled out more draft picks

for Duke Johnson or draft capital rather than the, the Texans sent to the chiefs for Carlos side. Are we sure that Carlos Hyde's not going to be the lead back at the end of this year? I mean, no, I'm not. And again, it's just because you can't use logic with this front office, or with this coaching staff and front office. But no, my guess right now and my gut is that Duke Johnson's going to be the guy. But that said, like, that is something to monitor.

And it's something to consider when you're looking to draft either of these guys. Okay. And the last person I wanted to know here is a winner from this is Albert Wilson. He's one of the Dolphins receivers. He was among the best in yards after the catch last year. Led the league in yards per route run in a limited sample. Then his season was ended prematurely. He had some injuries.

But this year, I think he's a really good value because he's, I mean, you can basically get him with, he's going on the 140th, 150th overall. So you can get him as a flyer at a late round. He's kind of everything you want in a late round pick. So Ryan Fitzpatrick has been. named the dolphin starter. It was never a competition. It'll probably start the whole year.

Scott Barrett at Pro Football Focus noted in the last 10 seasons combined, Ryan Fitzpatrick has the most, or sorry, the highest percentage of passes targeting the slot. Wilson is one of the best slot receivers in football by all the advanced metrics that predict future performance. So in the past two years combined,

Wilson is rated sixth out of 94 receivers in yards per route run from the slot. The only receiver is ahead of him are Michael Thomas, AJ Green, Tyree Kill, Antonio Brown, and Devante Adams. And then Alba Wilson's sixth. This is a person you can get with your last, like basically your third to last pick. So before defense and a kicker, really your last bench spot. And he's everything you want.

They have a terrible defense. So they'll be seeing a lot of garbage time. They just lost Kenny or they traded Kenny still so that they have way more targets to go around. And also, he's a big play guy. So he's a high upside play. He's not going to be some middling person. There's going to be boom or bust, but it's everything you want, I think, and, you know, your last bench spot.

So love Albert Wilson this year on Miami. He's currently going as the wide receiver 73 right now in PPR. So he's going undrafted. In truth, I think it's another player that, look, every now and then there's players that kind of fall through the cracks of rankings, especially on sites where if you're doing a draft on ESPN or on Yahoo and whatever, there are certain players that just are not going to be updated commercially to your value. And you'll be of a huge advantage of the other people drafting that are just kind of looking at these rankings. And you scroll down like three or four full pages. And you're like, oh, look at this gem. I think Albert Wilson's one of those dudes.

So I've been taking him in, I've probably taken him in like five or six different leagues right now. So I'm really banking. I'm really banking on the Wilson breakout. I think he's a good player. And in his situation, obviously in Miami is less than ideal. But he's going to be a big focus, I think, in that offense. And so, yeah, for sure. Like if you're looking for a gem later, he's a great guy to take late in the draft.

Beautiful. And somehow that only covers two of the Texans trades this weekend, but not all of them. So we're going to take a quick break. Football is finally back in Draft Kings. The leader in one-day fantasy football has huge week-one contests. The first one starts this Thursday when Chicago and Green Bay kick off the season in a single-game showdown with two and a half million dollars in total prizes up for Grimes. Draft your single-game showdown lineup and feel the sweat like never before.

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All right, DK. So we only got two of the three Texans trades this weekend. Yeah, they had a wild weekend. This is your main event. This is kind of like your Super Bowl for this year. The Seahawks traded for Jadavia and Clowney. They won the Clowney's sweet steaks. I don't even know sweepstakes is the right word here, but they sent a 20-20 third round pick linebacker or pass-rusher Barkevis Mingo who did not seem like a

lock to make the team. No, he's probably going to get cut, yeah. And then pass-rusher Jake Martin. There is a lot of fascinating complications here of whether this is a terrible trade or whether what they would have could have gotten compensatory pick, you know, basic things about football, you know, long-term planning, all that jazz. We're going to

put that aside for right now. How does Davey on Clowny being on the Seahawks affect fantasy football this year? I think first of all, I mean, for leagues that have a defense special team slot,

I mean, I think it just bumps the Seahawks up a little bit. I think that it just makes their defense overall a lot better. More importantly, though, um, there had been sort of this push of late and I was a part of it

that the Seahawks were going to have to pass way more in 2019. Um, just based on the fact that, you know, this, their defense just, did not have what it looked like, you know, like an ability to stop anyone,

I think kind of going into the season. And adding Clowny, it doesn't make them a good defense or a great defense. But I think it definitely elevates their defense to the point where they can still play the style of ball that they want to play, which is slow, you know, like slow the game down, try and control the clock, do all that because they think that their defense can stop teams.

that's just Pete Carroll's MO. It's been like that since the beginning, since he got here. Again, there was sort of the thought that maybe they have to abandon that just because they'd be playing from behind all the time this year. Also, so the Seahawks were one of the most run-heavy teams, really a lot of this decade. And last year it was them and the Ravens. And the Ravens were running at a historic pace at the end of last season.

And the Seahawks were the only team running anywhere in their vicinity. And then Russell Wilson comes out, signs a $35 million-dollar-year contract, makes him the highest-paid player in NFL history. And they're thinking, all right, well, if the defense is, a little worse, you're losing Earl Thomas. They're going to have to chase leads more often. Russell Wilson gets all this money and they're thinking they're going to pass more. And now Clowney's going to make their defense better.

And maybe none of that's true. So to me, this makes Wilson, like, if you're talking about losers in this deal, football-wise, it's probably good for the Seahawks overall. It's definitely good for the Seahawks overall, in my opinion. Fantasy football-wise, I think it makes Wilson's upside a little bit lower just because they're probably going to continue to do what they did last year a little bit more now. It slightly probably hurts Tyre Lockett, TK.K. Metcalf, you know, Dron Brown, David, David Moore, any of the guys that you might take on the Seahawks offense, the passing game, I think, is not going to, it lessens the probability that this is going to be a wide open passing game. And so that, to me, is the fantasy football impact. And, you know, it just basically lowers all the Seahawks pass catchers in my mind a little bit.

Does that, so you're lower on Lockett, Jaron Brown. I'm certainly low on that case. Does that raise Chris Carson slightly for you too? I know you love your boy Chris Carson. I mean, yeah, it could be like a little bump up, yeah. I think just because, again, it allows them to play the style of ball they want to play a little bit more. So, yeah, I think that's the fantasy fallout for that specific trade. Obviously. Well, for the Seahawks, what about the, looking at the Texans for a second.

So Seahawks defense slightly better. Texans defense, we assume, slightly worse. Now, the Texans were already kind of poised to see more passing this season because they went from one of the easier schedules in the league to one of the more difficult schedules in the league, which presumably was going to mean less big leads, more having to pass from when behind. Watson's numbers are much better when they're passing from behind. So does this kind of just only solidify in your mind everything we just said about how the Texans are in a little better spot with their receiving core and everything? Now they're going to see even more a bump and

volume. Yep. Yeah. I think so. I mean, I think this gives them, yeah, it gives them more shootout potential. And in fantasy, you want shootouts. And so. I think, yeah, I think it's just, it's a slight bump up for the overall offense. And especially, you know, Deshaun Watson, who's going to have to make some, make some things happen when they start playing in these higher scoring games. So, yeah, I think the Texans defense is going to be pretty significantly worse without Clowny and the Seahawks is going to be pretty significantly better. So that's obviously a fantasy factor. It's not like as heavy, crazy impactful as like the, you know, as some of these major trades that happened over the off season, over the weekend. but it's definitely something to keep in mind.

Okay, so slightly less exciting. Moving from shootouts to holdouts, Ezekiel Elliott's saga, remains a roller coaster. D.K., do you want to just run us through? I mean, the timeline of this has been annoying all August, but the ups and downs of even the last few days from this story, do you want to take us on this roller coaster for a moment, DK?

Yeah, so Yahoo's Charles Robinson, very good reporter, kind of had, you know, there was like a roller coaster. roller coaster like he said throughout the day 9.50 a.m. he reported the Cowboys are close to completing a contract extension with running back because Ezekiel Elliott. He's reporting this, not speculating it. And for the record, Adam Schaefter and those Fort Worth Star Telegrams, Clarence Hill, all reported that it was like getting really close. So basically everyone was reporting. It was really, really close. It was about to happen. And then later in the day by 7.30 p.m. Pacific time,

Robinson reported that Dallas is frustrated with the last exchange was Zeke Elliott. And then, quote, after Saturday's momentum, Cowboys expected more compromise to get a deal done today. It didn't happen. So it's on Monday and a hopeful reset. So we're here on Monday. We are recording this on Monday. Monday morning at 1138 a.m. Nothing's happened yet, as I've seen.

And then this definitely sort of puts, I guess, the damper on the probability of him starting. in week one. So that's huge. Yeah, so Jane Slater of NFL Network reported on Monday morning, after all those updates on Sunday. On Monday, Jane Slater reported that the deal is, quote, not close. And so this is interesting too, because there was a lot of kind of contradictory reporting in Cowboys Camp between the DAC Prescott negotiations, specifically whether DAC wanted 40 million or 35 million a year. That doesn't really mean anything. But the broader point is that there's definitely news reports from both sides of this negotiation, from the Cowboys side, And then Zika Elliott's side with his agents, there definitely have been, I would say,

more conflicting reports on this than you usually see in these kinds of situations. So it's kind of made it difficult to really know what's going to happen, whether he comes back or not. Obviously, Zik was, so he didn't go to training camp, he was holding out, he was staying, he was training in Mexico. And now it's really unclear whether he's going to play this season, you know, really kind of what it comes down to is, you know, he might not, he may or may not play week one, whether even if he shows up, he might just not be ready to join the offense week one.

The broader question is whether, because he's under contract for two years, and I think the key thing to understand this, if you're having nightmares about Levi-on-Bel and you have Zeke-Eleet thing, the thing you need to know is this. Levi-on-Bel was not under contract last year. He was in a, like a void negative zero space because he was not under-contracted and signed his franchise tag. So the Steelers couldn't fine him. They didn't really have any power to tell him what to do. Zieg is on a contract for basically two more years. So he's in a very different situation. Yeah, this season plus a fifth year. So the odds that we, I don't think we have the confidence to say anything for sure.

But what we do know is it would be much, much more difficult for Elliott to sit out the whole year anything like Levyon Bell did. The real situation is whether he would show up around week six to get in a crude year of service time. That seems to be the broader question around this Elliott thing. So let's just start with the easier part of this. What do you do right now if you are looking at Tony Pollard, his backup, who the Jerry Jones has been very happy to talk about. I mean, what do you do right now?

Yeah. And so, like, one of our colleagues, David Lara, was asking us, actually, for the weekend, what do I do about Zique? And I just told him, take Zieg, but then make sure you get Pollard. You know, I think Zeke has the type of, you know, league winning type potential, obviously, down the stretch. Like, he's going to be a major, major battle cow once he comes back. And I don't think it's, like, crazy to take him at number four overall. I think if you're taking him number three, that's a little bit different.

But if you're going, if Kamara, Sequin, and McCaffrey are all off the board, I don't have a problem taking Zeke, even now. but you have to reach a little bit later in the draft and get Pollard just have that insurance policy for later I should say for earlier in the season if he does hold out a couple games. I don't think he's going to hold out the whole season and I do think once he comes back he's going to be a huge, huge fantasy factor.

So short term, the winner is obviously Pollard. Tony Pollard, who has looked really good in the preseason by all accounts, it looks like they're going to make him sort of their number one guy. and yeah so he he's the obvious early winner and zeke is the obvious early loser but it doesn't really change my opinion too much on like where to take zeke to be honest so let's put this into like some real terms if you let's say you take zeke at four or five maybe you take david johnson out of him what round do you start looking at tony pollard

just because you know you're you might be screwed for a month and a half if you don't get them because this is where rankings kind of fail because one person needs them so much more than everyone else. Like eight or nine, nine, 10? I mean, ideally you get them

in like 11 or 12, but that's probably pushing it. It's not worth waiting. You're pushing your luck. So yeah, I would say like eight, nine, something like that.

And people will know you need Pollard, which will actually push them to take him before you. Yeah, so this is where Snake in auction is so different. You're so right,

Craig, because in Snake, it's like, well, if you want to screw that person, you have to take him. But an auction, you can just bid the crap out of Tony Pollard because whoever the guy who has Zika L.Elliot's probably going to pay almost whatever it takes.

So, you know, maybe he's suggested values three bucks or whatever in your auction league. But you can bump him up to 11 and like you probably still have to pay it. Yeah, but then you're getting Pollard who might play as a lead back for two games. And then it's all, you know, it's a it's given take. It's definitely like. So Zika has kind of become a similar version of Gurley. and I think the offseasonal advice almost universally was if you get Todd girl, you probably have to get Daryl Henderson.

Now it's actually much more true with Zika Elliott just because there's so much less information. And I still think that there is a chance that this is a mostly negotiating ploy that they want everyone to think there's a levy on bail aspect of this that they don't have as much leverage as Bell did. I do think Elliott returns, but I no longer know exactly when. I think it might be midseason. So it's, wow. So yeah.

you get him, got to get Tony Pollard. And if he signs Monday afternoon, we're sorry and all of us. That's the thing. So actually, yeah. Yeah, it's Monday. It's a 244 Eastern. So yeah, forgive us with this. Let me ask you this, though, before we get him on, does Pollard have standalone value in

your mind? Like, if you get him in the 10th round or 11th round, is that still like worthwhile if Zee comes back? Yes, for two reasons. One, I'm higher on handcuffing star guys than usual than most people on play. on players that are three down backs that I think their backup could get almost the same volume.

So like, I actually do think that let's say Zeeke plays 85% of the team snaps. I mean, I'm not say he does play roughly 85% of the snaps of the Cowboys when he's in. I think Tony Pollard would get like 60%

if Zick missed any time. That's still like top 10 numbers. That's 60% is a lot. That's like, like Alvin Kamara gets 61% or something. So if, If Sequan Barkley goes down, I don't think any Giants running back,

that's more than 50. I'm not a huge fan of handcuffing Giants backs because I don't think Wayne Gallman or Paul Perkins is going to get huge numbers. I do think Paul does. So on those players, so for example, don't love the handcuffs for Christian McCaffrey or

Sequon. I do love the handcuffs for Latavis Murray and Alvin Kumar in New Orleans, Tony Pollard, and Zekelly and Dallas. Then the flip side is I do think there is a chance that used Tony Pollard on the field at the same time as Zeke, but probably not as much as they want you to think. I think the Rams will use Henderson and Gurley on the field at the same time, way more often than the Cowboys will use

Zeke and Pollard. For the bare bones reason of they have been able to practice that. So I think that they've said they want to use Pollard like Alvin Kamara, but I mean, they haven't been able to practice that way, so I don't really believe it. Right. And Kellyn Moore is sort of the wild card, the X Factor here. You know, the new play caller in Dallas, who by all reports has been much more modern and forward thinking than what we've seen in Dallas over the last few years. Obviously, they were like an old school offense for a long time. So maybe that means they use Pollard on jet sweeps and end-arounds and as a slot receiver and do all this stuff that, you know, you'd love to see an offensive weapon like Pollard

used as, but a lot of teams talk about that and then they never do it. So I think Moore is another just huge variable that we don't really. It's hard to predict exactly what he's going to do. our colleague Robert Mays wrote a fantastic piece as part of his play calling series about Kellan Moore and really one of my takeaways from it is just it's so strange because I mean he was I mean he was Dax backup quarterback for a year and then he's been quarterbacks coach now he's coordinator but it's you have him spending time in one of the most vanilla maybe the most vanilla offense in football with the Cowboys'ers been doing but in college he was Boise State I mean

he's one of the most winning college quarterbacks of all time right and then Boise State the offense he ran at Boise State was one of the more diverse than all of college football, which is infinitely more diverse than the NFL. So you have his experience in the plays and schemes he's ran is kind of both ends of the full football spectrum. It's kind of fascinating. So it's difficult to know exactly where that will play out. So it'll be a fun offense.

Definitely. We have another holdout to get to, D.K., before we go on, let's take one more quick break. We've all made some bad choices in life. I know I have. I drafted Levy on Bell in the Ringer Fantasy League last year. But don't let missing out on fantasy football be one of them. It's not too late to create or join a league on Yahoo.

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All right, DK, we have one more holdout to get to. This one's a little more different. We got Melvin Gordon with the Chargers. He has still not

shown up to camp. And we have more concrete news on this, but also more mystery. So this one is, this one I have like far less confidence. It's going to end quickly. I guess I'll put it that way.

Tom Telesco and the, in the Chargers front office, seem to be playing hardball. At least they're trying to tell everyone that they're playing hardball. said over the weekend, he said that they've suspended negotiations with Gordon until after the season. So his contract, his new contract, apparently is not going to come. Now that's, you know, sometimes teams don't actually follow that.

And maybe Gordon will, you know, take whatever's on the table and go with it. But essentially what they're saying is they're not going to keep negotiating with him, you know, as the season starts. And so it's basically take it or leave it. And he's also said stuff. Like, for instance, over the weekend, he said, and I'll quote him, I think the day and age of having to have one running back to carry it 300 times is probably not the smartest thing in the world anyways. Even if you have a big belka back, you like have another back to come in and spell them. So he's hedging, you know, against using Gordon as a feature back anyway, even if he does come back. And so basically he's doing what like the running backs don't matter thing is like, committee is just fine.

like they're not going to see a huge, huge drop off without Gordon. So his situation is definitely really interesting. There's a chance he misses a big chunk of the season. He's going to be getting fined or losing out on game checks, I should say. And so like he's going to have to decide if he wants to do the Levi-on-Bel thing and kind of like not risk injury and then try and get a huge deal later. Or, you know, he has to way like losing all the money this year. year. So essentially, Gordon can either play in 2019 and make 5.6 million or sit out the season, and he's going to lose game checks along the way. So you tell me exactly when he's going to come

back. There's three main differences between Gordon and Z. Eliot's situation. Number one is service time. Zeke is under contract for two more years, and Gordon, this is his last year, which gives Gordon way more freedom to just do a little more risky play. Second is just injuries. Melvin Gordon, I don't know if I want to say he's more to lose, but he has more of an injury history where he, I understand him being more concerned about getting hurt this year and then becoming a free agent than Zeke does about, Zeke doesn't have the same injury history, uh, at least have two more years of salary going. And then third is just the quality of the backup. We like Tony Pollard, but he's still an unknown quantity and whatever the Cowboys want to say, they don't know

what he's going to be like either. The Chargers have somewhat known qualities that Austin Echler is basically one of the more efficient running backs in the whole, league in limited snaps and they know he's got a quality. So when the Chargers say we're very happy with Austin as an every down back, I believe them. When the Cowboys say that about Pollard, I hear that speaking to Elliott himself. I think the Chargers meet it when they say Echler. So I don't know when Gordon's going to come back. I think Echler is a huge value right now because if you believe that Gordon is not going to come back, maybe it'll midseason, maybe he skips the whole season. Eckler's going like 64th on ESPN. He's like 70th on fantasy pros. I mean,

if Melvin Gordon doesn't play this year, Austin Echler should be 30, 40 spots higher. So that to me is amazing. And I also think Justin Jackson, who is the third string guy, would become kind of like the second guy, maybe more like Echler's 1A and Justin Jackson's 1B in that situation. He's a seventh rounder last year at Northwestern,

50 carries for 206 yards last year. But you can get him in like round 14, and he should be going like five or six or seven rounds higher if Gordon doesn't play. So I like both those as flyers. I really don't know what's going to happen with Gordon. I think that he has a way higher chance of missing serious time than Elliot, though. So I got a question for you guys.

If Zeeke holds out into the season and Melvin Gordon holds out into the season, would you rather have Tony Pollard or Austin Echler? Good question. My short answer is Echler because he's done it. He's shown that he can have fantasy value before, even when Gordon's on the field. And also because I think that Gordon, if they're both holding out, I think Gordon has a higher chance of being out longer. I think Elliot eventually has to return.

I don't know if the same is true for Melvin Gordon. Yeah, it's tough, man. I'm really excited about, I like Pollard a lot, though. I don't know, yeah. Do you see a case here for Melvin Gordon being a value? He's a guy that was probably 11th or 12th overall if he showed up to camp and now suddenly he's going in the 30s? He signed a deal tomorrow.

I mean, do you think that the chance? When do you want to take the gamble on him? He's going later than that now. He's going in like fourth, fifth round. So at what point do you just take the, at what point you pull the trigger and take him, D.K.? Late third, fourth. I think it's still worthwhile.

I think the Zeke and Gordon situations are different, not just because of the year that they're going into, but because I think Zeke has elite potential if he's playing, whereas Melvin Gordon, I think his usage was probably going to go down a little bit, you know, especially based on what Tom Telstco is saying, you know, with like the bell cow back type thing. I think Dallas would still make Zika heavy, heavy belcow, whereas Gordon was already due for regression in the first place,

I think, just based on the fact that he scored so many red zone touchdowns last year, scored way more touchdowns over expectation last year than, you know, like an average player. So I think he was definitely going to go, he's going to regress in the touchdown area. They might like, like, pare down his usage a little bit too. So I think that makes Zeeq's situation different than Gordon's. I still think Gordon is of value, though, like where he's going right now. And I took him last night in a draft. You took Melvin Gordon in draft last night?

Yeah. Where'd you take him? I was trying to find it. I think it was in the fourth round. And I thought that, like, to me that was like, I'll do that for sure. Did you make sure to grab Echler or Justin Jackson? Yeah, I grabbed Justin Jackson late in the draft. Wow.

So I kind of covered my bases there. But yeah, I mean, I just think, you know, overall, the upside is still definitely there. I don't think he's going to be an Ezekiel Elliott type player this year if he is in. But I do think there's tons of upside there still. Do you think that it's good for running backs? What happened to Levyon Bell and him holding out the entire season and signing the contract with the Jets? Like, is that a positive sign for running backs doing the same thing? Or did it not go well enough to where now running backs are thinking maybe this isn't the right decision?

So I have a different take on this than most. If you listen to what Levion Bell said the entirety of 2018 from the moment that the Steelers season ended in January, he said this is not about money solely. It's about respect, which comes through the form of money and guaranteed money. But he was, he basically, like, after the Steelers lost in January, they asked him what would happen to do if your franchise tagged again.

said he would, he would consider retiring, maybe he sit out the year because he wants to pave the road for, Zeke Elliott, Melvin Gordon, he mentioned them by name and said that if, like, he's trying to restore value to running backs. He said, I don't care about money. All I have left in my career is, like, I want to win a Super Bowl. But other than that, I've made plenty of money. I play football because I love it. And I'm willing to sacrifice a year. So I don't think looking at it solely through money is the right lens. And I think Melvin Gordon, if he sits out, it's because he believes the similar thing that Melvin Gordon's made plenty of money, but it's about the idea that they feel the position and them have been disrespected. And I think that when it's about disrespect, it's more than

just a normal contract negotiation. They feel that they're sticking up for their tribe. And I think Melvin Gordon sees Levion was before him. Now it's Gordon's turn. And then someone will do after him. And I think they see a line between them threading it, which is why I believe Gordon has a stronger chance of doing this than Elliot, because Elliott has two years left and is kind of really second to to Gord. I don't think they're in the same line, but that's my take on Levion's. I guess I'm asking those, did it work? Did Levion bring respect to the position by doing what he did? Nobody tried. I mean, he didn't get as much money as he thought he would get, but I don't think that makes him a failure because he, look, I know this isn't exactly fantasy adjacent, but he tried

to make a stand. It didn't work, but he tried. Like, he put his money where his mouth was, which was, I feel disrespected, I'm willing to put something on the line. He did. That's more than most people do. It's certainly more than most star athletes do. So I don't really understand the disrespect and kind of the chirping at him because it's like, he put, he like took a stand and he took a financial toll for it for what he believed. And that's more than most people do. So I respect him for it because he just did it. And I think that Melvin, I wouldn't be shocked if Melvin Gord followed the same path. I'd be surprised if Zeek did because he's got two years left. Gotcha. Well put. None of these guys, none of these guys, I think the big thing is too, like none of them

want to set up new precedent because, you know, obviously Gurley got his big deal. And then Bell got a big deal. It wasn't as big as he was hoping, but it was still a pretty significant amount of money. You don't want to have like, none of these guys want to be like the new set of precedent where all the teams are like, well, did you see that? Yeah. He didn't get very much money. Like running backs in general, I'm sure want, like you were, you were alluding to this. Running backs want their salaries to keep going up, you know, like every other position in football, basically.

but at some point that that's going to break and it's not going to happen. I don't think anyone wants to be the first one to do it, you know? That's the word, D.K. precedent because every negotiation really sets the pace for the next one. That's why if you look at a lot of the top safeties, Earl Thomas, Landon Collins, like a lot of them have the same agent. It's David Mulugeta and a lot of running backs kind of use the same people. Like the same people use the negotiations and then that creates a real solidarity among the group where they kind of look at each other as like a small fraternity.

And they all take care of each other. And I think that's kind of a new development that is forming here. Yeah. And I think that whereas receivers are probably competing with each other a little more, the running backs are kind of kind of banding together in these negotiations. So I do see it stretching longer. Having said that, maybe he signs a deal tomorrow. This is all moot.

It's hard to lose those game checks, man. Yeah. It'll be interesting. Yeah. So let's just touch on a couple last moves that are small, but could pay, could be important down the line. So, D.K., want to run through some of these? Yeah. Well, just, hot, tick them off.

Like, Tewan Taylor, former Titans receiver, who a lot of people have been, like, excited about for last co season. You love Taiwan Taylor. I'm agnostic. I don't really have really an opinion on him, to be honest. But it is interesting that he was traded to the Browns. I think that puts pressure on Antonio Callaway, who's already, I think, on thin ice. And it also kind of throws into the question, does he take Richard Higgins spot as kind of the de facto number three? three on the team.

I think it's going to push both of those guys. Taylor's a good player. You know, he's had some issues with drops with the Titans and just basically didn't fit in, but that offense has been pretty bad. And so he's going to a team that has a chance to be one of the better offenses in the NFL, especially past offenses down the field. So that's interesting to me.

I think he's definitely worth a flyer in like your last roster spot, just to kind of see how it plays out. That's how I've been treating like Richard Higgins. I like him kind of as a late round flyer to just see how. the volume sort of, you know, plays out in Cleveland, see how that goes. The second one was in Jacksonville. I think in Craig, you're going to love this. But Fernette is the starter there.

And there's like very little question of that now. Thomas Rawls. The stars are alive. Exactly. Thomas Rawls was cut. Alfred Blue to the IR, which means now the team has two rookie running backs behind Fournette. Reikwaugh Armstead, I guess.

right now is the number two. And so that's kind of cool for people who sunk the last round pick into Armstead in case Fournought gets hurt. But the team did add Divine Zigbo, who was taken, I believe, by the Saints. Yeah, he got cut from the Saints. Former Nebraska running back kind of got some, he's a good athlete. A lot of people in the draft community were really excited about him. So he has a chance to maybe jump Armstead as the back there.

but bottom line is like 4-Net has no, I guess, real competition at this point. Yeah, exactly. I think 4-Net was obviously getting most of the touches and the question was how involved, are they, were Jacksonville's coaches saying they want to get him more involved in the passing game, or was he going to come off the field on 3rd and 10? And now looking at what, like, we always say, look at what coaches do, not what they say. And based on who they kept on this roster, I'd be pretty surprised if they left like pass protection for Nick Foles.

to like a couple, you know, rookies and people that just added this week. Ultimately, those aren't the people going to be blocking for Nick Foles on, you know, if the opposing defense calls in gauge eight, those aren't the dude. So I think Leonard Furnett is going to reemer or reestablish himself as one of those 80 to 90 percent snap guys, which is real elite territory. So we love Leonard Furnett on this podcast. Absolutely. Last one, New England, D.K.

What's going on? Yeah. So there was some, their movement in the receiver. core again in New England. Obviously we knew Josh Gordon came back, but now Nikiel Harry is going on the IR to start the season, which means I don't think he can come back, what is it, for six or eight weeks, one of the mid-seasonish, he can't come back until, which means that's obviously good for Gordon who could get more targets now. I don't think it necessarily affects Edelman, though, again, he could just get a little more targets if they're not spreading the ball

around as much to Harry. And then I think it's a bonus for Demarius Thomas, who initially got cut, but then got re-signed by the team this morning. He obviously had a big game in preseason week four. And looks like he's on his way to a recovery. And so, yeah, the, the offense there is shaking up quite a bit. Obviously, it makes Jacoby Myers a little bit more interesting, too, because with Harry on the IR, he could have a factor, or he could be a factor in that offense.

Yeah, I'm willing to gamble on Gordon Edelman, but I think that that will be a rotating door for the third. receiver behind them. And don't forget that in truth, James White is their second or third receiver and that this is really the fourth option on that team. So I don't necessarily think it's fantasy relevant. I don't think the player will be predictable every week. And I don't even think, I certainly don't think the distribution. I don't love any of those options until someone establishes themselves as like, I will be on the field for that team. I think it's Gordon and Edelman, right? If anything, I think that this news reminded me that, you know, I don't think, I don't

think it was common knowledge that kill Harry was that injured enough to go on IR for the first half of the season. I think it's a reminder that a lot of times our players are playing through injuries even if they're not listed on the injury report and that kind of those quiet injuries affect players depth charts and also production more than we think. And if you see a player have an issue on the field, just remember that that might be dragging through it like DeAndre Hopkins last year. After the wasn't listed on the injury report almost at all for shoulder injury. and then at the end says that his shoulder was the most difficult stretch of football

he's ever had in his life. So just a thing to keep in mind throughout the year. Yeah, so the bottom line, do you think this boosts Gordon in your mind? Quite honestly, no, because I don't think the Killahary had a shot to play in the first few weeks of the season. I think based on how he's playing,

it was clear that he was not going to win that job. And I think part of this IR thing is that he wasn't going to play. Like, they didn't think he was ready. So I think that I don't think, if he was not placed on IR, it's like he was going to earn a bunch of snaps. So I don't think it changes anything. But if you were worried about Nikiel Harry, then yes.

It certainly doesn't help Nikiel Harry. Doesn't help Nikil Harry. But hopefully we were able to help you guys today. Thank you to everyone for listening. Best of luck in your drafts. If you haven't drafted yet, best of luck in week one, if you already have. And thank you to everyone for listen. We appreciate it.

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