The Ringer NFL Show - Favorite Over/Under Win Totals With Anthony Dabbundo

Episode Date: August 26, 2025

Sheil and The Ringer’s own Anthony Dabbundo take a look at the 2025 NFL schedule and share takes on some of the most polarizing over/under team win totals going around the horn, including the lines for: Washington CommandersPittsburgh SteelersGreen Bay PackersTennessee TitansLas Vegas Raiders Sheil then ends the pod with his reaction to the big Trey Hendrickson and Terry McLaurin contract news. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Anthony DabbundoProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shil Kapadia here today, joined by Anthony DeBundo. We are planting our flags on our favorite over-under-wind totals for the 2025 NFL season. So you know DeBundo, or as I call him, you know, affectionately, Tony Buns from the Ringer gambling show. He talks baseball with me on the Ringer's Philly Special. He writes about soccer. He writes about tennis, a true sports Renaissance man. What do we call? all this, the Dubundo Equinox, right? All the sports you love happening at the same time in the next few weeks here. Yes, this is truly like the two or three best weeks of the year. U.S. Open, baseball in full swing. Philly's independent race, as we talked about yesterday. And I'm excited because we are, what, 10, eight, nine days away from the return of NFL football. So yes, the Dubundo Equinox, September and October are my favorite two sports months of the year for that reason. And I'm excited to be doing this because we have only done baseball before. for. So now we're in your realm doing NFL. I can't wait to get into win totals, especially because

Shield's trying to defend his stellar record on picks against the spread from last season. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see how that goes. But yes, we usually talk NFL on the side, but our first time doing it on the mic. So this is going to be a lot of fun. We each pick three teams. We haven't told each other who they're going to be. And we're going to talk about why we are confident in either the overs or the under. So let's take a quick break. We come back and we get to it. This episode is presented by American Eagle. Whether you're hanging out at home or headed out for a training session, American Eagle has you covered with a ton of new stuff. We're talking super comfy heavyweight hoodies and joggers that look and feel great, sweat wicking active shorts

that are good to go anytime, anywhere, new move-free jeans made from a crazy, comfy, real-looking denim and their biggest underwear collection of the year with striped, solid, and print styles to fill your drawer. You can check it all out at A.E.com or just go to the store. All right, we're back on the ringer and have all show. Was this a hard exercise, DeBondo? Was it like, you know, I have more than three? Was it like it's hard getting to three?

How do you feel about your view of the league going into the season? So I have bet seven so far. Okay. I would say on average, I'm around eight or nine. So there may be one or two I add in the next week or so, but I feel pretty good about my seven, but there's definitely a couple that I really like more than others. And so it was pretty simple for me.

But I also have one at the end that I think is a fun one that I think I have some good content for. So I think two were like my two favorites, and then the others were kind of a coin toss to decide which one I was going to pick. All right, let's get to it, planting our flags on over-under team win totals. Who is your first team?

Who do you got? We're going to go to the NFC East. and it is the classic regression case against the Washington commanders. Commanders under nine and a half wins. Wow. Okay. Make the case. Classic regression case. Explain it to people who aren't in our NFL bubble why they are a regression candidate. Look, we all loved the commanders.

They're a great story. I think a lot of people were wrong about Jane Daniels, myself included. I wasn't the biggest Jane Daniels guy coming into the season last year, and they flew over their win total. They were the Cinderella team of the NFL season. They made it all the way to the NFC championship game. But there was a lot of pixie dust involved in pulling off the 12 wins that they did against one of the easiest schedules in the league.

They only had one win against a playoff team last year, and it was the Eagles without Jalen Hertz for three quarters of the game. A lot of things happened in that game that were kind of fluky as well. But I just go back to the three key factors, one of which is that Jane Daniels had arguably, the best, but definitely one of the three best rookie seasons of all time. And maybe he is

ready to ascend to be in that elite tier of quarterbacks with kind of the big four consensus. Maybe he is. It's possible. Certainly in the realm. But I also think that there's some real downside risk. And we have seen this time and time again. And it could be like week six and we're like, oh,

you know, sophomore slump, Jane Daniels. Okay, but not as great as he was last year. I think that's certainly a case that everybody just expects linear progression from these quarterbacks in year two, year three, and it's just not always how it works. And so I have some skepticism about that as well as his health. So that's number one. Number two is their age. Our friend Brandon Lee Goughton had a tweet the other day talking about how old this commander's team is, how many reliable contributors they have that are over the age of

30. If you adjust for starting 22 expected, they are the oldest team in the NFL. They plugged a lot of holes in free agency over the last couple years to make up for the fact that they really haven't drafted well. And so I'm concerned about just the age and how that could result in injuries or just decline in performance, whether they're able to get the same level of production from guys that they got last season. So that's a concern. And then there's the fourth down stuff. I mean, it's the highest variance down. And they weren't just 87%. They weren't just better than the tush push eagles, better than the Tush Push bills, better than the Mark Andrews Ravens plays.

They were the best fourth down team by EPA of the century. And look, that's awesome. Great job by them. I will bet against them doing that again. So I think that there's all these red flags with the schedule and with the age and with the quarterback, and they could be a really good team and go nine and eight next year, just because of how tough the schedule is.

They're going to play J.1. Hurts and Dak Prescott four times this year. Last year, one time. All right. I don't disagree with anything you said. You laid it out. Fourth down, you can't be as good as you were last year on fourth down. You laid out that they won a lot of games at the end last year. It wasn't the hardest schedule. Sophomore quarterbacks. We saw it with C.J. Stroud the year the year just because you're great as a rookie doesn't mean the next year. You're going to be great. I would ask, though, isn't a lot of that baked in with the number here? You know, they won 12 games last year. And the over under is nine and a half. So let's say they regret. by a couple games this year. That still puts them at 10 and 7. They upgraded their offensive line.

Laramie Tunsell at one tackle spot. They drafted Josh Connerley at the other tackle spot. So I'm not saying they're going to be all pros, but I think I feel pretty good that their offensive line is going to be better than last year. And then the thing I come down to. So I've got the commanders in the playoffs. I started the whole NFL prep process thinking like you were with the regression. and then I looked at the other teams and I remembered how I felt when I watched Jaden Daniels play football last year. And yeah, he could come back, but you know what?

There's also a chance he's just one of those guys and we saw it right away. So I've got him at 10 and 7. So I actually, they're not one of my picks, but I actually predict them to go over. Did you feel that way about CJ Stroud two years ago? Yeah, you're probably right. I did like the Texans last summer.

You're right. There are so many similar vibes too. Even down to the two, I think the acquisitions that are getting a lot of juice and maybe inflating this number a little bit and inflating the perception of them, certainly. I agree with you. It is certainly somewhat baked in.

And like five, ten years ago when the market wasn't as sharp, the line would probably be, you know, 10 and a half with some juice beyond. Now it's nine and a half. I get it. But if you just derive power ratings for the NFL and you can do this based on the lines the first couple weeks,

they would be rated as the sixth best team by power rating. Do you think they are lower or higher than that? I would have them lower, but maybe not crazy lower. Probably a top 10 team, I would say. Okay. Yeah, I would have them lower. And I have them closer to like 11th or 12th. Okay.

And with their schedule, again, being much tougher. And I can't overstate the fact that they got to play Cooper Rush twice as opposed to getting to play, having to play Doc Prescott. That made a big difference. And even if you don't think Dallas is going to be great this year, there's certainly a more formidable foe with Rush. By the way, Rush beat them last year. which gets to that point too. All the crazy wins that they had against pretty mediocre teams, including those South wins,

I'm a little alarmed. But I see the case. But Debo Samuel is a bigger name than he is a production player, I think at this point in his career. I have a couple friends that are Houston fans. They were pretty happy to see Laramie Tunsell shipped off. I don't think that the additions are as much of needle movers as the perception of them would be maybe even two or three years ago.

All right, no, I think there is a case for it. And maybe I just don't learn my lesson with these young quarterbacks to bundle. We will see. All right. You know what? You started off being a hater and took an under. I'm going to start off being a hater and taken under. My team, you know, all good things come to an end.

We know this, right? A lot of times when streaks are broken in sports, when droughts are ended, it happens in weird ways. And Mike Tomlin has coached 18 years in the NFL and never had a losing record. In my opinion, one of the greatest streaks in coaching NFL history, maybe the greatest. When you look at just what he got from some of those teams, but you know what? It's going to be weird because he now has a four-time MVP at quarterback, and this is the year his streak comes to an end. I am planting my flag on the Pittsburgh Steelers going under eight and a half wins.

I look at this team and the likelihood of Aaron Rogers being a good quarterback, in his age 42 season. I've said this stat roughly 700 times this summer, but you know what? I haven't said it on the Ringer NFL show. So I'm going to say it now. During the Super Bowl era, there is one quarterback who has started more than 10 games

in his age 42 season. His name is Tom Brady. I don't, Aaron Rogers, what we saw last year does not lead me to believe that he's going to join that category with Tom Brady. I look at the offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith. I mean, the hipsters love this guy. I should have mentioned him with Solac on the hipster show

earlier this week. Since he left Tennessee, I mean, has he been coaching great offenses and I've been missing it? Because I haven't seen that with Arthur Smith. They have one known commodity at wide receiver in D.K. Metcalf. And while I like their defense, I get nervous to your point about the commander's age. T.J. Watt, Cam Hayward, Darius Lay, Jalen Ramsey, their best players are all on the wrong side of 30. Finally, they face the 10th hardest scheduled to bundle. I see the Pittsburgh Steelers as a.

seven or eight win team, and I'm planning my flag on this finally being the year that Mike Tomlin has a losing record. What do you think? That is a far bolder call than my call, to be honest. I feel like going against Mike Tomlin. I've done it before, by the way. So Steelers fan, you can dig up takes of mine where I've predicted this in other years. I just want to go on the record. But you know what? I feel great about it this year. I mean, for all we know, like, Rogers will go down and they'll still figure out a way. They'll sign somebody off the scrap heap and bring him in. This guy, Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges were starting games for the Steelers.

And they were winning. They were somehow winning games. It is really the ultimate, like the turnover margin every year. They're regression proof. Like there is no such thing as turnover regression for the Steelers. Chris Boswell has never missed a big kick in his entire career. I don't know how they do it. They got some kind of voodoo magic.

But I kind of agree. I think if you don't like Pittsburgh this year, though, you should probably look into like alternates. because there is like major blow-up potential. And if you had to bet, where would Mike Tomlin be coaching at the start of the 2026 season? What percentage chance is at Pittsburgh? And then who's the number one potential idea for him to go to? Where's the team that's calling out from Mike Tomlin next year?

I still think it's pretty high that it's Pittsburgh. I mean, I would say 85-ish person, maybe even higher than that. But if he loses his one thing that he's always had. If he loses. If he loses the never had a losing season thing, they're not as happy with Tomlin in Pittsburgh as I think he gets credit for nationally. I'm looking at all the teams right now. Miami?

Would that be a team? That was the first name for me. It was. Okay, that's what you were thinking. Yeah, that's interesting. Him just taking over, give him kind of complete power of everything. Look, we're already going ahead to 2026. Where's Mike Tomlin going to be coaching?

I don't know. feel like they're stable organization. There have been fans there who have been upset with him in the past, haven't won a playoff game since 2016. And I still think he's getting more with less from that group than other coaches would. So what about the Giants? I didn't, I'm just looking at my teams here. Now, that would be interesting, Mike Tomlin in New York potentially.

It's really funny seeing the Giants PR campaign coming out of training camp. Oh, my gosh. Let's talk about this. Yeah. How quickly until the balloon pops? because the schedule is brutal and they might be in better team but they also might go 6 and 11

and when they go 6 and 11 everybody's going to be upset again so I think Daible he's like bought himself some time here maybe but once the losses start it's going to turn very quickly

I can't believe the amnesia people have with watching preseason football like I'm just shocked at the Jackson Dart takes out there like go Google Kenny Pickett preseason go Google Zach Wilson preseason

Sam Bradford Sam Bradford preseason. It's crazy. And people are, oh, he's got it. Like, he might be good. I'll allow for the, I don't know how rookie quarterbacks are hard to predict. Nobody knows. But the PR, I'm with you coming out of there, it's just absolutely absurd.

All right. So Dubundo says he could see it, but you probably don't want to go against Tomlin in a big time. I just don't want to do it. What I'll do is there's like a vortex. If the Steelers are way under 500, I'll bet on them. And if they're way over it, I'll bet against them with the assumption that they're just going to somehow find their way. Maybe they'll go 8801.

Yeah. Yeah. It's a good strategy. To keep the 8, 8 and 1 streak, you win your pick. They go under and they keep the streak alive. Because I think they did have a season where they were with a tie 500. So. They might have.

Anyway, let's go positive because we've been too negative so far. Okay. Go ahead. I left my cheesehead back in Philly. Oh. But I'm going Packers over. you've written about this, he's got the cheesehead. I got to feel bad.

Listen, we got to give you a reason to be watching this show on the Spotify app, watching the video, or on the Ringer NFL YouTube channel. Yes, I've got the cheesehead. This is also one of my picks. So you make the case. I'll fill in what you missed. And then we'll talk about how this goes horribly wrong for us. I think I know how this goes horribly wrong for us.

But how this goes right for us is that they actually had a lot of things go wrong last year and still went comfortably over their win total and were in the mix for the division. I mean, they played in a history. historically good division with Detroit and Minnesota. And yes, I know they went 0 and 4 in those games, but it's not like they were getting necessarily blown out in those games. Like they were right there with Detroit and second meeting. They had their chances in the first one,

but the weather was wonky and they kept screwing up in the red zone. So it's not like they were so far behind Detroit. Like if Detroit played Green Bay in the playoffs last year, Detroit would have been like a three and a half point favorite. It would not have been some massive difference in the two teams last year. I think Green Bay is the most stable team in the north. year over year, right? Detroit loses both coordinators. Chicago overhauls the whole regime. Minnesota's got a new quarterback, a rookie.

And Green Bay is like, hey, we got Jordan Love, we got our coordinators. We have Matt LaFleur. And when we have Matt LaFleur, we're a top 10 offense every year, basically. And yeah, they didn't even get, like, I remember hyping Green Bay last season. I bet they're over. I bet they're going to win the division. And I said they got all these interesting receivers. One of them, surely will break out. Didn't happen.

I said, I really like Jordan Love. I think he could have a great season. He was kind of injured half the year. Didn't happen. Yet they still went over comfortably in their win total. So I think this is just a bet on stability within the organization and a bet on their offense being really good. And yes, I understand the flaws in the defense.

I think we can get into that. But the safeties are really good. I think the coach is good. Scheme's good. And that will make up for potential issues with their pass rush, their corners, not being necessarily premium. I'm not saying that they're the best team in the NFC. but I think they're comfortably 11 win team.

All right. So the number is nine and a half. So you are planting your flag on the Packers going over nine and a half wins. I'm doing the same thing. You laid out the case. I thought that number was way too low. When they win 11 games last year and Jordan Love has three different injuries and Malik Willis has to play two games. I'm like, wait, they're going to come down and win two fewer games this year.

When you have, like you mentioned it with LaFleur. I mean, you want to be surprised today? go look at Matt LaFleur's Pro Football Reference page. I mean, he has won 67% of his games. He's had double-digit wins four times in six seasons, and he's never gone worse than eight and nine in a season. And you mentioned it. I mean, in terms of offensive efficiency, stable year over year, there's almost no team in the NFL that has consistently produced above average top eight, top 10 offenses as Matt LaFleur. So I think you laid out the case well, you know, they're plus 240 to win the division. That one could be interesting as well.

So I'm with you on the Packers. Now, here's how it goes wrong. Jordan Love is a high variance quarterback. Depending on what week you throw on the Packers, you could be like, man, he looks amazing. Or, man, people actually like this guy. So they're 18 and 15 and Love starts the last two years. And they face the eighth hardest schedule. So there are some things in there where you say it might not be great.

But I feel like the floor and maybe I'll regret saying this, I feel like the floor is pretty high. I mean, if they won fewer than eight games, I would be shocked. And I think they're way more likely to win 11 than they are to win seven or eight. I mean, the job that Lafleur does in generating explosive plays, I think is the most impressive thing. Like the last two years, and, you know, I tend to think that when there's a huge gap between your success rate and your explosiveness, it's like, oh, you can kind of get in the way with something here. Like, are you scheming something differently? what are you doing to kind of accentuate that gap?

And when you keep doing it, I just have to kind of tip my cap and say, yeah, Jane Reed's just always open, 25 yards down the field. And you can go back even to that playoff game against Dallas. Dallas, the vaunted cowboy defense from two years ago,

completely picked apart, explosive play after explosive play. And it's not like he has an AJ Brown type receiver where you can just throw the ball up and he's going to go beat his man one-on-one. Christian Watson, I think people are inconsistent. like he's pretty inconsistent week to week.

Yeah. Depends on the game with him too. And yet he was a top 10, 15 receiver in yards per route run last year. So they add some stability and more weapons to the mix. I think Kraft could have a breakout year. Like the same things we said about Green Bay are all true now. They're still really young. And that makes it exciting.

Like I think they could end up, like there are scenarios where they're a top three offense. All right. Packers over nine and a half wins. Yeah, I had them, I think, as fourth in my offense. rankings on the ringer.com. Adam 5th. All right. So we're planting our flag. The official over for Tony Buns and Shield Capati. We're on the same page. The Packers over nine and a half wins. All right, let me take this cheesehead off because it is a little heavy.

We'll take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to our final two picks. Listen up. It's finally here. Future's Day happening right now on Fanduel. It's 24 hours of boosts, bonuses, and bragging rights. on your football season picks. Today only all customers get an instant bonus on any football futures bet. If you want to do a straight up over on win totals for your favorite team, go for it. If your game is eight division winners, you can parlay that. If you want to copy my picks, awesome. You can do that too.

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We've both got the Packers. Dubundo had under on commanders. I had under on the Steelers. All right, what is your final take you're planning your flag on? I feel like I tend to skew negative with these things preseason. Like, it's always better to take unders generally when you're betting on NFL win totals. And I know it's not fun because everybody's like, oh, we want to have optimism. I tend to be the contrarian.

have an over for my third pick. This is a fun. I also have an over for my third pick, let's say. Anytime you can bet on the worst team in the history of NFL gambling to go over their win total the next year, you have to do it. Oh my gosh. Tennessee Titans, wow. Over five and a half wins. Okay. What's the case? So the worst team in the history of NFL gambling that I mentioned, they were two and 15 against

the spread last year. No team has ever done that. There are plenty of bad teams every year. Usually the market is pretty quick to catch up on, hey, like, this team really stinks. And they almost actually traditionally get underrated by the end of the year. The case of the Titans is a funny one because they were historically bad special teams last year. So they revamped the entire special teams unit. Kicker, punter, coach, returners, all new.

Better. Maybe. Can't be worse. Defense was actually pretty league average last year. and for now, we'll see how long it lasts. Legerious need is currently healthy, and I think that does matter a lot for their secondary. I am not much of a believer in the division as a whole,

as is the AFC South tradition, but I'm going to plant my flag and say that the Titans are the best offensive line in the AFC South this year. Now, the Jags and the Texans are pretty obviously bad. I think the Colts have some interior problems, replacing some key losses to the Vikings that they had in the offseason. I think there's questions about how good they're going to be on the interior.

And so I think the Titans, with this rebuilt offensive line, with Cushenberry back, moving Latham to the right side, this could be an above-average offensive line. And, you know, the reverse NEPO with Callahan and Callahan, my one red flag is the coaching staff.

If you come in in your first year and you are the worst team in the history of the NFL in terms of gambling, that's probably not a great indicator for the coaching staff. However, if you're Callahan, you have to be so excited to no longer have a saboteur as your starting quarterback. I mean, he didn't draft him. He kind of got stuck with him.

He clearly didn't like him. He was exasperated on the sideline like every other play, it seemed, last season. Mason Rudolph was not much better. Bringing in Cam Ward, it's kind of the playbook of the Texans of the commanders the last two years. Flawed team, certainly. But with the upside of the quarterback, you take your chance. And if you want to get really crazy,

they're plus 420 to make the playoffs. All right. I don't see that. However, I will admit, I mean, I'm not just going to hand-wave the coaching thing. There's a chance he's one of the worst coaches in the NFL. You mentioned how bad they were against the spread last year,

worst team in NFL history. I mean, what did he do last year? That would inspire any confidence. Will Levis was worse. I know Will Levis isn't good, but Will Levis was worse last year than he was before. By the way, Brian Callahan came from Cincinnati.

and Joe Burrow had like his best season ever with Brian Callahan gone last year. When your special team sucks that bad, is that not a red flag for the head coach? Like, what are we doing here? That should be an area where you can coach people up and really have these special teams keep you in some games. It did not do that. It was the worst special teams in the NFL. So all those things make me nervous where I would not touch this number.

I think they're probably a four or a five win team. I hear the case you're making. I think Kim or rookie quarterbacks are unpredictable. It's really hard to say this guy's going to be good. This guy's not going to be good. I'm with you on the offensive line. I thought they made some moves there that are going to give him a chance. I don't love the past catching group,

especially if Calvin Ridley goes down. I mean, that's going to get really ugly, really fast. But you mentioned the division. They have the fourth easiest schedule. And so I think there's a chance there. It wouldn't shock me. It wouldn't shock me if they went over. That's the boldest one.

But that's bolder with me going under on the Steelers, even with Tomlin's history, to go with the Tennessee Titans. What was the number you said? It's five and a half. Five and a half. So they got to win six games. Schedule is also backloaded with easier games,

which I like. So they have a tough starting schedule. They're at Denver week one. They host the Rams week two. At Denver, week one is brutal. I mean, the Broncos home field advantage in the first couple weeks

when nobody's in shape is really strong. But if they get the losses out of the way while Ward's kind of getting acclimated, they become like the, you know, they're like two and six maybe at the break. Then they're a team that plays like 500 in the second half when they get to play Jacksonville. I think Cleveland and New Orleans are on the schedule in the second half. Like it could get, could trend up because you know they're not going to be the team that pulls the plug on their starting quarterback. Like Ward's going to be the guy.

Right. Other teams could be like, you know, we're in Cleveland, New Orleans like giants. Yeah. They're trying to get draft positioning. Right. Okay. All right. Titans over for the Bundo.

and now my last one. So you always have to try to identify here the biggest coaching upgrade in the NFL. I'm going to give you the options and you tell me which one you think is the biggest coaching upgrade. Jets go from Robert Sala, Jeff Albrecht to Aaron Glenn.

Jaguars go from Doug Peterson to Liam Cohen. Raiders go from Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll. Cowboys go from Mike McCarthy to Brian Schottenheimer. Bears go from Matt Eberfluse to Ben Johnson. Saints go from Dennis Allen. to Kellyn Moore. Which of those, as you hear me read them out, do you say, I think that's probably the biggest coaching upgrade. I think it comes down to two. It definitely comes out of two.

Really uninspiring group this year. Is that wrong? I was not going to inspire when you said a lot of those names. Okay. There were two that kind of, the one obvious one is Ben Johnson. But I don't think you can pick Ben Johnson. Okay. I'm not going to pick Ben Johnson. I think it's Pete Carroll. It's Pete Carroll. There you go. Don't overthink. I am planting my flag on the over six and a half wins. I mean, are we serious with the other teams that are down there in that group with six and a half wins? I look at it and go, I'm all over that. The Raiders winning at least seven games here.

I mean, when were you born, Dubundel? 1998. Okay, 1998. Do you know the last time Pete Carroll did not get to seven wins? 1994. Correct. You were minus four years old, which let's all just, you know, take a breath and go on that one.

Yeah, and how ridiculous that was. So last time he did not get to seven wins was 1994, his first season with the New York Jets. He was 43 years old. So in 14 years with the Seahawks, with multiple different starting quarterbacks and coordinators and supporting cast, they never won fewer than seven games.

And now I'm looking at this saying, they had a bottom three passing offense last year. They add Gino Smith. I'm not some kind of Gino Smith truther, you know, but competency, reasonable. Absolutely. Could they be like the 16 best passing offense? Absolutely. They could be that. Pete Carol adds competency with the coaching staff. You have a defensive coordinator and Patrick Graham who's done more with less in previous seasons. The regression stuff you were pointing to with some other teams earlier. This team was terrible with turnovers last year and terrible with injury luck last year. If that comes more closer to the mean, then they've got a chance to be a lot better. So yeah, I like them over six and a half wins. If you like over seven and a half wins, wins, that's plus 140. If you're like over eight and a half wins, that's plus 240. If you think they sneak into the playoffs, like I kind of do, that's plus 320. So I, this is, when I look at all of them,

I think this is the one where I'm like, that number does not match what I think the team's going to be. Am I nuts? I agree 100%. I hear a lot about like their defense and how many players they lost. This was not some great defense last year. And none of the players they lost are like signing these massive contracts elsewhere. It wasn't like these are highly sought after players necessarily. I agree with you on Graham. I think he's underrated. Pete Carroll gives them the competence. And yeah, their pass offense was a joke last year. Other than Brock Bowers, just force fitting in the ball, there was nothing to get excited about. With Gino indoors, it's going to be a pretty competent unit. My hot take is that they will win the second most games in this division.

Wow. Second. I am a bit of a seller of all the helium on the Broncos. And I don't know that there's that much helium on the chargers, but I'm selling that too. So I think there's some real questions, and I think that division, it's a tough division. Yes. I think there's a world where all three of those teams are in the same kind of 500-y mix. I don't disagree with that. Yeah, I could see them all separated by like two wins, the other three teams other than the Chiefs in the AFC West. All right. So I'm planning my flag. Raiders over six and a half, Steelers under eight and a half. We've both got Packers

over nine and a half. you've got commanders under nine and a half and you've got Titans over five and a half. That's where we're planting our flags. Maybe we'll put a little friendly wager, loser buys lunch when we have our occasional lunches here out in the Philadelphia area. Maybe we'll do that in the offseason. So you can listen to Anthony Dubundo on the Ringer gambling feed. You can subscribe to that YouTube channel.

Check him out. Check out his writing on the Ringer.com. I'll be back in a second to close out the show with the hurry up. All right, the hurry up is our closing segment where I give you a take on news in the NFL. And on Monday, we got resolutions with two contract disputes. Terry McLaren, staying with the commanders. Trey Hendrickson, staying with the Bengal. So let's start with McLaren.

According to ESPN's Adam Schaefter, he gets a three-year extension worth up to $96 million. Now, almost always, when a contract is reported with those two key words up to a certain number, it means it's not actually that number. It means the agents want that number out there so that they look good, but the actual number is lower. So in this case, I imagine that that $32 million per year that's being reported out there is what McLaren can get if he reaches certain incentives. We'll find out those contract details in the days ahead here. But the fact of the matter, is if you're a commander's fan, the actual number doesn't matter that much. You wanted Terry McLaren on your football team. He was there for the bad and you'll want him there for what looks

like it's going to be a fun era of commanders football with Jaden Daniels. And let's be honest, the offense needs him. I mean, without Terry McLaren, it is in my opinion a below average pass catching group. So that's McLaren. And then Trey Hedrickson later in the day Monday, his contract situation gets resolved. Now, I would describe the Trey Hendrickson contract dispute. I think it wins my award for just most annoying story of the offseason. I mean, the TV podcast segments wasted on this story when it never really seemed like he was going anywhere, just a great example of how ridiculous the NFL content machine is.

And before you start pouring the finger at me, I get it. I'm guilty too. I'm not throwing stones. I'm embarrassed about it. But man, the amount of words and minutes we spent talking about Trey Hendrickson this office. We'll never get that time back. That's the bottom line. We'll never get that time back. But he gets a $14 million raise according to ESPN, boosts his salary up to $30 million for 2025. This is the last year of his deal, which this part really annoys me, because it means we might be in for another offseason of Trey Hendrickson contract discourse next year. And I would rather slam my head against this desk I have in front of me than do that.

So check back with me on that next off season. But you add it all up. And like most August contract drama, the resolution here is that the players end up staying with their teams. I mean, this happens like 95, 97, 99% of the time, this is what happens. So I would like to say, let's remind ourselves not to waste much attention on these things next year. But let's be honest, I know that that's not a realistic goal. All right, thanks to Anthony Dubundo.

Thanks to Christopher Sutton for producing Kiera Givens on social and additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna, Ramgapal. I'll talk to you tomorrow on the Ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino. or 18 plus and present in D.C. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Helpsheel.com. Call 1-88-78-9-77777-7 or visit ccpg.org or visit MDGamblinghelp.org in Maryland.

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