The Ringer NFL Show - Five X Factors for Week 18

Episode Date: January 6, 2022

Five Ringer staffers join Mallory Rubin to tell you about five X factors that will play a major role in deciding seeding in the playoffs, the 2022 draft order, and the future of certain franchise quarterbacks. Host: Mallory Rubin  Guests: Kevin Clark, Benjamin Solak, Steven Ruiz, Kaelen Jones, and Rodger Sherman  Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, I'm Mallory Rubin. And I'm Van Leithen. Check out the Ringerverse podcast from The Ringer for all things, superhero movies, nerd culture, and fandom entertainment. We have instant reviews and fun takes on all the latest news and more, available now on Spotify. Hello, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Ringer NFL show here on the Ringer podcast network.

I'm Mallory Rubin. And sadly, you're hearing my voice here at the top of the episode instead of my beloved co-host, Nora's. Nora is a touch under the weather today, but we will plow ahead. We will plow ahead for Nora. We will plow ahead for all of you. We will plow ahead for content. Today, a few familiar voices from the Ringer NFL show and the ringer.com will be joining

me to highlight five X factors for week 18. It is the final week of the regular season. Playoff spots are on the line. Seating is on the line. Draft position is. on the line. There is a ton at stake so much so that we decided it would be fun to ask a few of our colleagues to identify the one X factor that stands out the most to them heading into the final slate of the regular season. We are not hitting every single X factor for Week 18.

We cannot promise balance across conferences or divisions, but we are highlighting the five X factor storylines that to us feel the most interesting, the most germane, the most firmly in the spotlight and likely to shape the events of the weekend as we are heading in to the postseason. First up today, the X Factor of this podcast. Ooh. Kevin Clark. Kev. Hi, Matt.

So many choices. Hi, pal. You had your pick. What is the X Factor? actor of week 18. Okay. Okay. So I don't know if I had the pick.

I was, I, I think I got the last pick in this draft. But, but I would have gone with, with these guys anyway. Because everyone's going to take, oh, the time. Oh, Derek Henry is going to be back. I mean, there's so many obvious picks. But for me, going into week 18, the AFC East is the most intriguing division. Because, first of all, the Patriots, I don't know if the listener knows this. The Patriots can still clinch the top seat in the AFC.

which is ludicrous. But there's a kind of doomsday scenario for the rest of the AFC, which is the Bills lose, the Chiefs lose, the Titans lose, and the Patriots win, obviously, and they are the one seat. But there's obviously a win-and-in situation for the Bills, and they're both playing divisional games. That's how the schedule is set up, obviously, in the NFL. Right.

We have Jets at Bills and Pats at Dolphins, and they're both afternoon games. They're happening in tandem. It's like the World Cup. It's like the World Cup group stage. They just have them going and we're going to be able to follow. We've anticipated it for four years. That's it. That's it.

Okay, but enough about the Dolphins rebuild. Okay, so the X factor then, the X factor then is the two quarterbacks who aren't playing for anything today. Zach Wilson and Tua. This is a classic Kevin pivot. You know, everyone thinks you're going to come in and talk about Josh Allen and Mack Jones. No. You're here to talk about Tua? It's the other guys.

Why wouldn't you be? So let's unpack that. So we have the bills, first of all, who have dropped a game. Obviously, the entire season was weird. As I've said, many times if 2020 was the weirdest season of all time, 2021 is the second weirdest season of all time. And it's getting to 2020 levels just as far as the COVID, the COVID interruptions and all that stuff. But it's still less weird than last year.

So, but we've seen the bills drop a game to the Jaguars earlier this year. were like they forgot to play football, let the Jaguars pass rush for Josh Allen have a career game, that sort of thing. So we've seen the bills playing weird games. And meanwhile, the Jets almost beat the bucks last week. And it was interesting, I was listening to Daniel Jeremiah this morning. And he was talking about how encouraged he was by Zach Wilson's performance

because they were out, I think their top three running backs, two running backs, top three receivers, left tackle problems all year. And I think George Fant left in that game. And then I looked up on PFF, his average time to throw, which was a problem all year for Zach Wilson, was 2.65 seconds per pass, which is the fastest mark of his rookie season. So he's improving as a season goes along. I still don't think that he's on the superstar track or anything. I still think quite controversially, according to Jets fans, that if you could upgrade or at least bring in a star quarterback in the office, I'm not, Aaron Rogers is not going to play for the Jets.

Russ Wilson's not going to play for the Jets. But if pie in the sky that happened, I think that's the kind of thing you trade Zach Wilson in for. But separately, I think Zach Wilson's getting better the season goes along. And one of the things I look for, as far as culture building and all that stuff,

Robert Salas in his first year, is be in games and win games that you shouldn't. And this would be, if they give the bills a run, if they beat them, obviously that turns the playoffs on its head. The Patriots then can win the division. They would have a home game. so important to the Patriots where they are basically unbeatable there, although they had Tom Brady

for most of that run. But I think that you, this, if you're a Jets fan, you want to see how they close the season, because I've read a lot and talked to a lot of guys who have tried to build cultures. And they say by the end of year one, you got to see something. And last week was part of that. But I also think that playing this game tough and winning would be a massive statement about what they're building. Zero picks for, for Zach Wilson in his last four games, which is obviously a pretty big sign of the progress that you're indicating. I find one of the fascinating psychological divisional rival elements of this game and this scenario inside of the AFC East to be, and we can transition from this into the Dolphins

Pat's game, that of course the Jets want to come out and have a strong showing and end the season on a strong note for Wilson for the entire team. Of course, they want to play spoiler for the bills in terms of that division title path. But doing so much, means helping to facilitate a division title for the Patriots, which is like a dreaded outcome, of course, right? So they're not going to say, oh, we're not interested in winning the game because of the New England Patriots. That's not the way that professional sports function. But it is kind of a fascinating subplot and one more way that these storylines are really entwined heading into the final weekend. A rich text. Well, let me push back on that because it's not

necessarily true that the Jets winning would deliver an AFC East title to the Patriots. because the other quarterback who could rob them of that is Tua, who on a, you know, I was reading some stuff this morning about the Dolphins, just their seven-game win streak. And listen, I think a lot of that, a lot of the criticism of the Dolphins win streak was overblown. Everybody's playing weird quarterbacks this year. Everybody's taking advantage of teams who've been ravaged by COVID. That's just sort of how you're doing.

And a lot of bad teams couldn't do that, by the way. A lot of bad teams couldn't win seven games in a row. The RPO stuff is interesting. So on RPO's and the Dolphins are basically saying, new high water marks as far as that goes. And league-wide, saw a stat actually from PFF this morning, that there are 14 teams this year who've run 100 or more RPO's, and that's over double what it was just five years ago. And so even though the RPO revolution has been going on in college for a long time. And listen, it's happened. Patrick Mahomes has used them. Matt Nagy was an RPO

master when he was with the chiefs. Try to be an RPO master with the, with bears. It didn't necessarily work a little bit differently. You have mixed Trubisky. But what the dolphins have been able to do, They're not setting the world on fire. They've only, I think that on RPO passes, Tua's only getting half a yard more than on our non-RPO passes. But they've built an offense that I think can at least give teams problems. And so that's what I'm intrigued to see this weekend. And that's why I think if either Tua or Zach Wilson have a great game, they're the X factor of the entire AFC playoffs because that determines who has home field. That determines in a catastrophic scenario, whether the Patriots have the one seed, they are, they control down.

destinies in ways that a lot of other quarterbacks were out of it do not. It's a big moment here for Sean Fennacy and Roger Sherman and Matt James and all the other Jets fans here at the Ringer. You are shaping the course of the NFL. Of history. Of history. In here in 2021, after all. So quickly to wrap, the clinching scenarios, Bill's clinch the AFC East title with a win over the Jets, period. A.

A.S. loss to the Dolphins. two AFC East tie games. Buffalo holds the tie breaker over New England based on winning percentage in division games. The pats clinched the AFC East title with a win over Miami and a Buffalo loss, a tie and a Buffalo loss, and as you noted, they still have a path to the one seed.

So a lot on the line. There won't be any ties. Just so everybody knows, there will be no ties. We're going to save the tie scenario for Raiders Chargers later in the pod. No ties. You heard it here from Kevin Clark, folks. No ties in the AFC East Games.

And Zach Wilson and Tua will be shaping the course of events in week 18 in the NFL season. Love it. Thanks, Kev. Thanks, buddy. All right. Joining us now, Ben Solak, Ben, hit us with your X Factor for Week 18. What do you got? How does Metropolitan Jacksonville sound?

How does the largest city by area and the contiguous United States sound? Boy, we opened with 2-1, Zach Wilson from Kevin, and now we're on Jacksonville. This is a real twist for how we all thought this pod was going to go. Here's the thing about Jacksonville. Take us through it. It's bad for Colts, particularly Colts of Indianapolis,

who are now heading here in Week 18 in a win and you're in playoff situation. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014. which is a long time. Indy Star walked through all of, all, Indy Star walked through all of the games that the Colts have played

on the road against the Jags. Matthew Van Trian had the article. It's pretty funny all the games. In 2015, they lost 51 to 16. They were six and six at the time. Then they lost 30 to 27. In a game Andrew Luck actually played in.

In my head, like he didn't play in any of these. We actually didn't play in one of them. 2017, they're really bad. They were three and eight. That one doesn't count. 2018, they were shut out in Rikes,

Reich's first year. They were six, that was a six nothing game. They failed to convert three times on fourth down. So it was Reich's like, Brandon Staley game, but the entire media was like, are you nuts?

And he was like, nah, this is usually good. It's just we lost by six boys to the Jags this time. 2019, they were shut out in the second half. Jacoby percent started that game.

And then in 2020, that was the week one opener last year where Gardner Minshue, like, set a record for completion percentage. The Jaguar started the season one and O and ended the season one and 15. The only win the Jags had. was when the Colts came to town.

So, Jacksonville's been a curse for Indianapolis over the last half decade, which really matters because, as we say, the Colts are winning in. If they lose, there's still other ways they can get in,

but generally win, secure the fifth seat. Should we very quickly run through the scenarios for everyone so that they have that context? That's what I would like to do. Yes. Okay. Colts at Jags 10 a.m.

So this is a morning game, right? And obviously, it's going to have some implications for a game to come on Sunday night, which we're going to talk about a little bit more later. But the Colts scenarios, as you noted, it's, it's, there are a few different pathways.

There's the easy one and then are the needlessly hard ones. Yes. That this House of Horrors could unfold in them needing to pursue. A win or tie in they're in. They're in with a Chargers loss and a Raven Steelers tie, right? A Chargers loss, a Steelers loss. A Dolphins win over the paths. And as Kevin Clark just outlined, he's ready to predict that that could happen.

Oh, wow. So with the Colts as 15.4. five point favorites over the two-win jags and that recent history of an inability to win when they need to, and when they don't, in Jacksonville on the road, what is your faith with all of those scenarios? Carson Wendt's not blowing this. Colts are the sixth seed currently. And that's the thing, is you'd love to say, like, well, the Colts are the sort of team that handles business against bad teams. They aren't because Frank Reich, his teams have been really good at giving up first half leads across the course of his tenure in Indianapolis,

going back for a couple of years. Jacksonville generally has nothing to play for. Right now, he's secured the number one overall pick in the event that they win and the Lions lose, which the Lions are playing the Packers probable backups for most of the game, then the Lions take over the number one seed.

So besides like draft seating, they don't really have anything to play for, but generally there is no team in the league that would do better ending the season on a high note than Jacksonville in that they currently have like none of them. It's very much so a, it would be such a relief. It would be so nice to win this game. It is worth noting that Jaguar's fans are planning on attending this game in cloud costumes

because they've been trolling Jacksonville social media for a week over the reported retention of GM Trent Ballgame. There's a lot going on in the Jags Colts game. My goodness. Well, you know, you love to see the fans engage, Ben. Yes. That's one way to put this thing. I'm excited to turn out, that's for sure. The Packers element is not the focus of what we're talking about,

but I will just note that I find it absolutely bizarre that they're saying, yeah, yeah, Aaron Rogers, he's going to start in week 18 against the Lions, even though we've clinched the number one seed. Why would they do that? That is absolutely crazy. I get it in that you don't want to be cold for division. Right, because you're going to have the buy, so that's a lot of time to be sitting. Do you think this is going to be one of those scenarios where they play for a quarter?

Yeah. If they walked out and executed the script, first two drives score 10 points, I pull them right then. So then maybe there is that path for the Lions then. It's not impossible. Currently the ESPN FPI gives the Jags an 83.1% chance of locking that number one pick. The Lions have a 16.9% chance. Whatever happens, like my personal draft opinion at this time is that Jags take Kavon-Tivodeau either one or two and Lions take Aiden Hutchinson, either one or two. obviously you don't really know what the Jags

defensive coaching staff's going to be, but they feel like a timidot team and the Lions University of Michigan, Aidan Hutchinson, JJ, Watt vibes. Yeah, Dan Cable's going to go for that dude a little bit. So I'm not sure it actually does matter, but just the single best part, winner loss, Trent

bulky, first overall pick Colts in the playoffs is just that the Colts loss opens up the window for the Raiders Chargers tie. And that's all I want in the world. And Brandon Staley said he's not going to do it, and Derek Carr said he's not going to do it. And I don't care because you could still tie even when you're trying not to.

That's still possible. All I want in the world is for the Chargers or Raiders to kick off a game in which if they tie, they both make the playoffs, which happens if and only if the Colts lose. So for me, the X factor is Jacksonville because that matters for the Colts and Carson Wentz and Frank Reich and whatever and matters for Trevor Lawrence and Momentum and Tramolki and whatever, but also because I just want to watch the tie game. I want to watch it so bad. Ringer NFL Slack really,

really came alive when the tie scenario made it onto everyone's radar. People were talking about the prospect of it. And this has been a lighting Twitter all the week too. Just kneeling, kneeling all game. To me, it's a simple, like,

kneeling all game, like Brandon Staley said, like we care about the shield, whatever, we respect it, yes. But like, same thing as the Rogers situation. Like, you know, keeping your guys healthy. you know, the Bengals are sitting in Burrow, whatever.

If you're in overtime and it's tied and you've got 45 seconds left and you get the ball at your own 25, like you've been trying all game. I get it. But at that point, all you got to do is take two knees and you guarantee you make the playoffs. You're going to tell me you're a risk of pick six? I wouldn't. I don't know, man. One of the only things sweeter in life than making the playoffs is keeping a hated division rival out of it.

I mean, Derek Carr, and again, we're going to talk about this more in a minute with Ruiz, has yet to play in a postseason game. It's very sad. It is. Connor Cook played for him, right? Yeah, I think it was. Fabled Connor Cook, Brock Osweiler showdown. Legendary.

How could we ever forget? Okay, so Jacksonville, the Jags might only be a two-win team, but Ben Solac just walked you through how they are not only potentially able to shape the outcome for the cursed cults when it comes to playing in Jacksonville. The implications that this game has

four Raiders Chargers on Sunday night and for the top pick of the NFL draft, that's a lot on the line. And by the way, only path by which the Ravens made the playoffs. Shout out that 2% chance. So, you know, just kind of throw that one in there at the end. Frankly, how dare you?

It's a 3% chance. Oh, that's on me. That's by bad. One out of 33. I apologize. Show some respect. All right, Ben. Thank you.

Appreciate you joining us to walk us through your X Factor. This was fun. Thanks, Mal. Duval. All right. Joining us now. Stephen Ruiz. I would ask you what your X Factor is, but we've already sort of teased it for the audience because we were chatting

about Jacksonville as a cursed land for the Colts and all of the many ripple effects, including the potential tie Sunday night football Raiders Chargers scenario. We're going to talk more now with you about the Raiders Chargers game, but specifically within that, what is your X factor for Week 18? I'm staying on theme with the cursed lands and going to Vegas for Derek Carr, who I'm I think I would argue is the most important player of week 18. Okay. Run us through how that can possibly be true, why it is true to you and what you see unfolding here.

Okay. I'm not the biggest Derek Card fan, but I do think he is a fringe top 10 quarterback. I don't enjoy watching him play football. I don't like his style of play, but it's effective. He's like a top 10 quarterback statistically. So just I got to already stop you, just an iconic start from you. Derek Carr, most important player of Week 18, most important player here at the end of the season.

Let me be clear. I don't enjoy watching him play. And when I say he's French top 10, I'm also going to tell you why. I think that might not be true. Right. Expertly executed. I think he's a quarterback where you're like on the fence,

whether you should keep him or build around him and move on. But I think the playoff, this game, this play in game, which is going to result in either the charges or the Raiders going to the playoffs is going to decide his future in Las Vegas. We know they're going to have a new coach next year. And I don't think a new coach is going to be able to come in and tell the quarterback that just took the Raiders to the playoffs for the second time in like 25 years, basically,

that he needs to go. So I think this game, he's not only playing for the playoffs, he's playing for his future with the Raiders next year in 2022. And this is why I think this game is so important. Let's say the Raiders win. That means we don't get Justin Herbert in the playoffs. That means we don't get a Justin Herbert Patrick Mahomes playoff game in the first round, which I think every neutral fan is rooting for.

And I think it's a game that might affect the legacy of those two young quarterbacks the first time they meet up in the postseason. So it has that ramification. But if Carr loses and the Raiders do decide to move on from him and they trade him, that's a fringe top 10 quarterback going on the market a la Matt Stafford. And we saw how big the Matt Stafford ripple effect was this year. think their car has a chance of being the Matt Stafford of 2022. So very quickly, let's run through the various outcomes and paths here.

And then I want to delve into that future ripple effects consideration set there. So the Chargers make the playoffs with a winner or a tie. The Raiders make the playoffs with a win, a tie and a Colts loss, a Colts loss, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie. The Raiders are coming off three wins in a row against the Browns, the Broncos, and the Colts. I think we would all agree they are not across the roster as strong of a football team as the Chargers. But there are scenarios here, not only for each team, but for both teams. Yeah, the one thing I would say about the Chargers, I think Brandon Staley is the first year head coach. Justin Herbert looks like a top five quarterback already.

So I think they have time no matter what happens with this game. So you think there's less urgency for them because of that? Yeah. Yeah, I do. I do think that. I think like there's going to be takes in the off season about whether we overrated Brandon Staley in his first year. But that doesn't really matter in the long term.

It doesn't matter in the locker room. But I don't think, I think the Chargers could survive missing the playoffs this year. And no one's going to question that infrastructure. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, there's a sense of kind of looming perspective finality around. Carr and the Raiders franchise, as you noted.

And, you know, I mentioned this a few minutes ago when we were chatting with Ben, but Derek Carr has never played in a postseason game in his NFL career, which is his time with the Raiders. You know, when the Raiders made it in 2016, he had that horrible leg injury right on the eve of the postseason, and Connor Cook played in that game instead. This is a huge deal for him.

This is a huge deal for the team, obviously. I'm curious to, like, interrogate the point you were making about... how if Carr achieves this, if the Raiders make it, and he's concluded the season on this grand note, they've gotten to the playoffs, how difficult it would be for a new coaching staff to come in and alter the roster in that way.

But how true do you think the opposite is, that if they don't make it, what are the implications then? Does that feel like the final note, despite the fact that he is, you know, the contract is ongoing into next season? And do you think that really increases the likelihood if they don't make the playoffs that he would be dealt? I mean, he's obviously said in various ways across various media appearances, I'm paraphrasing here.

You know, I'd rather be dead than not be a raider. Like, he has said many times he does not want to play for another team. Do you think that's just the kind of thing people say until they can't say it anymore? Or do you really believe that he is not interested in participating as a professional football player for another NFL franchise? I think that just something people say when they're trying to endear the, themselves to the fans. Like it's it's a very Baker Mayfield S quote, I would say. But here's the thing, Derek, you don't get to choose whether you're a raider. The Raiders get to choose it. And maybe the Raiders feel like they would want to die rather than have another season with Derek Carr at

quarterback. So yeah, that's how I look at it. And I think the reason Derek Carr's contract is like in a good spot. He has two years left on it. But I think that might incentivize the Raiders to trade him now because it is good value for other teams, so they might give up more draft capital. And then a new coach, if they do decide to keep Derek Carr on for another year, then it becomes a discussion of extending him. And if you extend Derek Carr,

like I said, he's like a fringe top 10 quarterbacks. And those type of guys get record-breaking money when they sign new deals. We saw Joe Flacco start this trend. And I brought up Joe Flacco on purpose for you. Oh, boy. Memories.

I also forgot one of my ripple effects. One of my ripple effects for the result of this Chargers Raiders game. If the Raiders win, I think they're the favorites to play on the Nickelodeon game. So this will also affect Nickelodeon's ratings on next Sunday. This is a big deal. A lot of effect. Yeah. The Nick game, that's real ringer core stuff, you know?

Now I'm even more invested in this than I already was. Quickly here, before we wrap. Early predictions for the outcome of the game and the outcome of the car scenario. and if you think that they are going to move on and trade him, who do you see as the Raiders quarterback next year? You think we got a dangerous Russ Wilson scenario here? All right. I'm going to start with the game prediction.

I'm picking the Chargers, which isn't a surprise to anybody who knows my feelings about Justin Herbert. I think he's the best quarterback in the league. I think he's going to tear that defense apart. So I don't know if it's going to be close. But if Carr loses, I think he gets traded to Cleveland. I think he's Kevin Stafansky's. Matt Stafford, what Matt Stafford was to Shaw McVay.

Okay. And then where's Baker? This is an incredible ripple effect scenario already. Get this. Baker is still in Cleveland. Just churning out insurance commercials from the stadium. Yeah, that's his new job. On buy weeks? Here's my explanation from a financial standpoint. Baker is guaranteed $18 million. So it's going to be hard to move that deal. I think they keep him. If they trade for car, car comes in, he costs them $19 million next year if they don't alter his deal. That's $37 million, which is about the same amount of money you would have paid Baker

if you thought he was the guy and had extended him this past off season. So it's like, you know, they break even. Incredible. Okay. Well, a lot of intrigue on display here. You heard it from Stephen folks. Sunday night football, Raiders Chargers, must watch. No quarterback in football is worth keeping for their friends. franchise, except Justin Herbert, the best quarterback who has ever walked the earth.

I believe that is an accurate summation of everything that Ruiz just shared with us. That's correct. That's correct. Thank you for joining us today, bud. Thanks for having me. It is time to chat with Kalin Jones. It is time to hear Kalin's Week 18 X Factor. And I believe it is time for our first NFC X Factor of the Pive. Caitlin, what do you got?

Oh, man, I didn't realize that was the first NFC one. So I'm looking at the NFC West. We've got a pretty big matchup significant when you look at the Rams and the 49ers. And I'm going to go on a limb. We don't know whether he's actually going to start yet because Kyle Shanehan loves holding quarterback secrets for whatever reason.

But I'm picking Tray Lance as the X factor in that matchup. We know what Jimmy Garoppolo is capable of. and particularly this season it's been pretty average when he's been in the lineup. It's been decent starting quarterback play. But the fact that he has torn ligaments and his right thumb won't be able to throw a football.

I think it gives leeway to the Niners to choose Lance and stick with starting with him. And to that point, I think his last start against the Texans proved that he's probably ready to assume the starting role. I know that's probably a really pivotal matchup to throw him into,

but when you consider what he's able to do, which is everything that Jim Garoppel is asked to do, which door of the middle, check down, make smart decisions and reads. He's also, he's able to do that, plus add the athletic mobile dimension in the running game and push the ball down field, which is something Kyle Shanahan really hasn't been able to do

with any of his previous quarterback. So if Trey Lance is in the lineup, it's going to be a really significant, you know, addition for this matchup. I want to shout out in case anybody listening has not read it yet. your excellent piece on Theringer.com. What a great website this very week on Trey Lance. Everybody should check that out for even more insight on how Lance can unlock certain aspects

of the Shanahan scheme and the Niners offense, as Kellen just outlined. And part of why I'm so excited to chat with you about this for a few minutes is you've also been covering the Rams all season long. So there are a lot of the storylines that you've been tracking right. at the four here. The Rams, we should say this as an afternoon game, so Niners at Rams afternoon. Rams are currently the division leader,

currently the number two seed heading in. San Francisco is currently the number six seed, but has not clinched a spot. So the Rams are playing for seeding because Arizona can still take the West with a win and a Rams loss. So it's not like the Rams have nothing of consequence on the line here. That's hardly true. But there's a little bit more umph and urgency on the San Francisco

side because they're playing to make it. They're playing to get in. The scenarios are that the Rams clinched the division with a winner a tie, a Cardinals loss or a tie. The Niners clinch a playoff berth, the wild card spot with a winner, a tie, a Saints loss or a tie. So in a certain fashion. This is a must win for both teams, though I think we would say the must win aspect is heightened right for the Niners. And

I'm curious how you think the history between Shanahan and McVeigh and those coaching matchups might bear out here, either in terms of the decision that Shanahan ultimately makes or what it might mean

for either Garapolo or Lance to be on the field against that Rams defense. Yeah, so Shanahan and McVey are friends. Like, they're tight. And it definitely plays a role in here. I think that's part of the reason why Shanahan's holding on to, you know, announcing his decision whether he's, you know,

starting Jimmy G or going with Tray Lance, in part because, we've seen the success that Shanahan has had against McVeigh's when five-street matchups against the Rams in the meeting, in the series so far. And the Niners won that game earlier, the matchup this year, this year.

Exactly. And that was without... To fix for Stafford in that game. Stop me if you heard that one before. Exactly. Yeah, that was brutal. So that's the other thing. Like I could have went with Matthew Stafford and said like, look, if Stafford plays well,

the Rams, you know, locked down the number two C because he's been up and down, you know, for the second half of the year. But I think Lance, because, you know, the Rams defense has really solidified itself. I think they've been pretty consistent throughout the second half of the year. They're really good at stopping to run, which, again, Niners, calling card. But I think Lance gives, again, an added dimension that, you know, the Rams defense won't be able to completely defend. Like, you have to cover both horizontally and, you know, deep down the field if you're talking about Lance being in the lineup. And I'm just not sure whether,

you know, the Rams will be able to match up. Even though it's a really significant game for a guy who's only played what, like three total games this year, really was significant stamps, played one game last year at the FCS level. I mean, even if Jimmy G can't play on Sunday, I think it really starts the discussion, you know, whether or not Lance, if they win,

then if the Niners should consider starting Lance going into next year. Not even next year, but into the postseason, even though it's really significant, you know, playoffs to have to be fielding. I feel compelled to draw attention to something that you said earlier, which is

that Jimmy G. might not be able to throw a football because of the right thumb injury. Now, he is back in practice. He started throwing, according to reports, he started throwing Tuesday this week. He was back at practice Wednesday. But he's been forthright in his interview and his access

that there's pain still. This is like he's not fully recovered. He's not fully back yet. Throwing the football, I mean, listen. Don't want to. Don't want to overstate it or make a real. reach here on the analytical front, Kaelan, but it's an important part of playing quarterback in a NFL football game. Seems like it would be germane to the decision at hand. So I am fascinated

to see what decision Shanahan makes, but also what the ultimate, to your point about the playoff matchup should they make it and then the kind of state of affairs beyond, what the ultimate implications of that are. It's been a fascinating season on the whole to assess in that, or back. You know, it's something that all of us have been talking about the pod, really all season long. On the one hand, the Niners went all in to get Lance, you know, trading up to move up to three, taking him at number three overall in the draft. You already outlined wonderfully here just now and again in your piece on the site, which I would really encourage everyone to read, how Lance's ability to push the ball downfield, make those deep throws, and then add that aspect of mobile quarterback

play really unlocks something about Shanahan's offense that Jimmy, Garoppolo does not ultimately with his heavier alliance on over the middle throws. And yet, I mean, both players have been injured this season. So there was always that consideration depending on where we were in a given moment in time. But I do think it's fair to say that as central as Lance is, undeniably to the future of the team, Shanahan has consistently favored playing Garoppolo when he had the job. choice, right? So if Jimmy is healthy, if he is able to go, do you think it's as simple as that? He will be the player who starts the game. Or do you think that there's a chance that even if

Jimmy is healthy enough to play, we still see Lance? So I'm going to say yes to both here because I think yes, if Jimmy, if Jimmy can go, air quotes. Shannahan S, we won't know your true answer until until it's time for kickoff. Gamesmanship. I mean, like, he's going to start Jimmy if he can play, I think. And then that being said, I still think even if Jimmy G is healthy enough to go, we're going to see Trey Lance, whether it's in the red zone or, you know, on particularly serious to give him some rest. Because, again, you have torn ligaments in your right thumb.

This is not going to be pretty. And I think Lance is safe enough and smart enough with the football to where you can trust him to do everything that Jimmy G does in terms of conservatism on offense. But he just unlocks so much for you. so it doesn't make sense and not start them in a really big matchup. I'm with you. I agree.

I can't wait to see what happens. It's going to be a fun game either way. Kaelin, thanks for sharing your X-Factor with us. No problem. Thanks for having me. All right. Joining me now for the final X-Factor of the pod.

It's my colleague. And crucially, my fellow Lamar Jackson enthusiast, Roger Sherman. And, Raj, welcome. Hey, thanks for having me. It's week 18. I'm ready to get some reps in.

This might be, Raj, my last chance, our last chance to chat about Lamar and the Ravens on the pod for a little while. So we had to do it. Need you here with me. We've got Steelers at Ravens 10 a.m. PT morning game, dismaying. But alas, here we are. And both teams. feint though the prospect may be, are technically alive,

albeit barely. The teams that are still in the AFC wildcard mix are Colts, Chargers, Raiders, Raven Steelers. And here are the scenarios before we talk about the Lamar X factor. The Steelers can clinch a spot with a win and an indie loss and anything but a tie

in Raiders Chargers. I know the Raiders Chargers' tie possibility is a favorite topic of yours. The tie is the real X factor. The idea that the charges and raiders will play for an intentional tie, it's very close to my heart. It's come up multiple times today. It's come up in three of our five X factors. It's like it's so much of an X factor that we can't define it as a tonic. We can't ignore it. Yeah. It is all encompassing and all consuming. The ESPN FPI playoff

probability for the Steelers are now 8.3%. The Ravens scenario is as follows. And of course, this is the one we're here to talk about. The Ravens can still make it with a win against the Steelers, a Chargers loss to the Raiders, which is, you know, certainly possible. A Miami loss or tie to the Pats. I don't think that's particularly likely, but Kevin Clark gave me some hope earlier on the pod.

And a Colts loss to the Jags. I would say that's the least likely, except spent eight minutes earlier with Ben Solac, who explained that the cults are completely cursed when it comes to playing in Jacksonville. And so the FBI might tell me that the Ravens have a 3.3% chance. But I want you to talk me into the fact that it might be higher than that. And a lot of this, obviously, the big question is, a lot of this hinges on whether Lamar will be healthy enough to play, whether he will come back from the ankle injury.

He has not played since December 12th. The Ravens have lost five in a row. The losing streak dates back to when Lamar was still playing and actually started with the last matchup against the Steelers. Where are you on this, Raj? How should I be feeling? Well, when you talk X factors, you want to look for not the most likely thing, but this scenario right now, of all the teams still lie for the playoffs,

their Ravens have the lowest chance. That's true. This is a super encouraging start. But when you look at this five-game losing streak, of all of the five-game losing streaks in NFL, history. There we go. Has there ever been a team that has lost a game by one point to the Steelers on a

missed two point conversion? They lose to the Browns by two points. Yep. They lose to the Packers. One point. By one point on another miss two point conversion. A blowout to Sinci that we will be skipping and not talking about. And then.

You know, their secondary was so depleted. Joe Burrow was feeling himself that day. That's basically a one point loss again. Let's just pretend it was. And then another one point loss to the Rams. I feel like the Ravens have like probably half of the league's one point losses at this point in the season. I'm not I'm not sure what the exact stat is. Don't fact check.

And let's go with it. If how much better, if Lamar Jackson had been first of all healthy for these games, I feel like the Ravens would be in the playoffs. Like, but. Yes. We very quickly went from the Ravens. being in contention for the top overall seat and certainly a division title. And Lamar in contention for MVP to the Ravens losing five games in a row and being largely

out of the playoff picture. That happened quickly. Five very close games. Tyler Huntley has been really impressive. He has. He's played exceptionally well. And that's worth talking about too because they have a chance against the Steelers with Huntley out there, certainly, as evidence by all of the close losses in recent weeks.

But that possibility of Lamar may be coming back. and delivering the storybook win at the end of the season to somehow miraculously give them that glimmer of hope amid all of the injuries, not just to Lamar. I mean, the season, they've been decimated all year across units. QBO line, the running back unit, of course, I mean, the defensive backfield is just has been shredded by injuries all year. The running backs were done before the season even started.

Exactly. So given how well Huntley is played, how are you assessing their chances regardless? Do you think that there is a chance that Lamar will play? Do you think that he should? I mean, we should say he would be taking, anybody will be taking hits in this game. I mean, playoff implications for both teams.

T.J. Watt's going for the sack record. Thin-O line for the reasons. You got to prioritize player health and safety no matter what. Yeah, Lamar Jackson's long-term health. And as he mentions, T.J. Watt will be going for it. He knows there's a pretty small chance. But I mean, Lamar didn't practice yesterday. This injury has been so odd because it seemed like he's been ready.

He's been like a game time decision like three weeks in a row. And I think the chances are slim to the point where the Ravens might consider that like risk of re-injury is higher than the benefit of play. him in the playoff games. Yep. But the dream scenario is everything works out and Lamar Cubs running in and wins the game. And, you know, so they if we're talking about a possibility as slim as the ravens actually pulling through and making the playoffs, let's let's go for the dream here. Let's have it be triumphant.

Let's have Lamar come in rushing in from the fourth quarter rushing it. Maybe he's like on the sideline until the fourth quarter. They realize they need him. Oh, wow. Oh, wow. I love this. I love this. It comes down to another two-point conversion attempt. It has to be. He comes in. They get it. They send the Steelers home in tears. Words coming in. Oh, I've got a push notification here, a slap there. Then the Chargers went on Sunday night football and none of it matters.

No. No, that's not what I was going to say. Sorry. Not what I was going to say. I was going to say. And then the Raiders beat the Chargers. The Coltskirce continues in Jacksonville. We get what we need in Miami, New England. And I channel here with you aboard the Millennium Falcon. My inner Hans Solo would say, Roger Sherman, never tell me the odds.

They're 2%. Two percent of the odds. But they're probably as high as like 4% with Lamar Jackson. playing if he if he if he suits up so wow you really spun that forward and an exciting and energizing way at the end that doubled it i'm saying that lamar jackson could double it and and that's that's what we needed week 18 there's always a glimmer the faintest faintest the faintest the fiendest ones are the most fun listen all we need is a little ember a little ember a little ember hope i love it all right roj thanks bud all righty that's a wrap on today's episode but not even close

close to a wrap on the Ringer NFL show feed for this week. Ben, Stephen, and Kaelin will be back with you on a Friday, as always, to preview the Week 18 slate in full. The Sunday crew will be back with you on Sunday evening to break down all of the Week 18 action. I will be with you this Friday on the Ringerverse feed with Joanna Robinson to break down the second chapter of the book of Boba Fed. So much spice, if you're interested in some boba. Join us there. And of course, we have a ton coming for you on the Ringer NFL show and the entire podcast network during the playoffs.

More specific and detailed programming announcements to come. But a little teaser for you. The Ringer NFL feed will be a little different the next two weeks. Nora and I will be teaming up Kevin Clark on Wednesdays midweek. And the Ringer squad will be with you on NFL playoff Saturday. as well as Sunday nights. Thank you to all of today's guests, Kevin, Solak, Ruiz, Kaelin, and Raj.

And of course, thank you to production assistant Isaiah Blakely for production on this episode, to Arjuna Remgapal for additional production supervision.