The Ringer NFL Show - Fraud Watch: Harsh Truths About the Bears, Steelers, and Jaguars!

Episode Date: October 29, 2025

Sheil and The Ringer’s own Austin Gayle take a hard look at this season's statistics for a few NFL teams whose recent successes may be distracting fans from crucial deficiencies within their rosters.... (00:00) Fraud watch!(1:47) Chicago Bears(10:14) Pittsburgh Steelers(20:06) Jacksonville Jaguars(27:27) The Hurry Up: The return of Lamar Jackson This episode is sponsored by State Farm®️. Don’t settle for just any insurance when there’s State Farm. https://www.statefarm.com/lp/trainer The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit ⁠www.rg-help.com⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Austin GayleProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shio Capadia. Today we are putting teams on fraud watch. The exercise is simple. Among the teams that have winning records, who should you probably be a little skeptical of? Because let's be honest, that old Bill Parcell saying you are what your record says you are, completely wrong. Terrible quote. Terrible saying, records can be misleading. And we're going to try to find the teams here whose records are misleading, teams that we look at and say, you know what? I don't think this rest of the season is maybe going to go the way the first part of the season has gone.
Starting point is 00:00:36 So I picked out three teams that I think are on Fraudwatch. My guest is Austin Gale from the Ringer. Does he agree or does he agree on one or two? He disagreed on another. So we'll talk it all through. Let's take a break. We come right back with Austin Gale. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by Fandul.
Starting point is 00:00:57 And if you're betting on the NFL, Fanduels the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parley's, quick bets for when you want to jump in live and your way so you can set your own lines. The app's fast. It's easy to use.
Starting point is 00:01:10 And best of all, when you win, you get paid out instantly. Download the Fandul app or go to fandul. dot com slash ringer NFL to get started. The ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit RG-help.com to learn more about the resources
Starting point is 00:01:25 and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in D.C., Kentucky and Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show with Austin. I'm starting us off here. We're doing fraud watch.
Starting point is 00:02:06 I got three teams and the Chicago. Bears, you are on fraud watch. You're four and three. You're in the mix for a playoff spot. Austin, I see some pretty glaring red flags with this Bears team. And I think the biggest one is I'm looking at their defense and how much they've benefited from turnovers. I was digging into the numbers today. No team in the NFL over the last five years has benefited more from turnovers in the first eight weeks of an NFL season.
Starting point is 00:02:37 Now, I understand. Turnovers are good. Every coach they tell us all the time. You got to get turnovers, win the turnover battle. But there's also a randomness to them. And when you look at the bear's defense, it kind of stinks when they're not getting turnovers. Like any metric you want to look at it,
Starting point is 00:02:53 it's like a bottom three, bottom five unit. I think that's going to eventually catch up to them. And from what I've seen with the offense, there's not enough there where you can say the offense is going to make up for that. Now, maybe it'll get better and it will. But the point here is that if you have like a media, yoker offense and you have a defense that is only good when it's getting three turnovers per game, that's not a sustainable recipe for success in the NFL. So I've got
Starting point is 00:03:17 the Bears as my first team on fraud watch. Where are you with Chicago? I think it's fair. I mean, I don't even know if like, yeah, they have a winning record. They're four and three, but I don't know if they even necessarily believe like their true contenders this season. I'm glad you brought up the turnover stat. They lead the league in turnovers with 16. They've had 15 in their four wins. And they've one and there are three losses. And a lot of that, I mean, you play Gino Smith. He's going to give you some turnovers. They played Spencer Rattler outside in the rain,
Starting point is 00:03:46 kind of a sloppy, windy game. That's going to happen as well. And obviously, like, turnovers are pretty noisy. I think turnovers is a piece of this. And when you look at the defense overall by like most metrics, it's one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 22nd and yards allowed per drive, 25th and points allowed per drive.
Starting point is 00:04:02 31st in success rate, only the Dallas Cowboys. We know that like maybe the worst defense in the league. Only the Cowboys rank. lower than them in terms of success rate. I think beyond just like the turnovers and the pluckingness, and I know they've had some injuries, like not having Tyreek Stevenson has been rough for them, but they can't create pressure, right? It's like Montez
Starting point is 00:04:18 Sweat is by himself along that defensive line that can actually create edge pressure. Gerrond Dexter has been fine, but not really much more than that. They're like 28th in the NFL and pressure rate. And I like splitting out pressure rate into when you're only rushing four and when you are rushing more than four when you're trying to blitz and trying to create pressure. The 28th when they're rushing
Starting point is 00:04:34 four and 26 when they're rushing more than four. They've really struggled against the past. the net yards allowed per pass. I think what saved them in some of these games and it's another like noisy metric. And when you're looking for like frauds, like teams that maybe have winning records or won some games that you didn't expect,
Starting point is 00:04:48 but they're probably not like deep postseason contenders. I think turnovers is one. The other one is like third down conversion rate. They're like second in the league and third down conversion rate allowed on defense, which like when you look at the rest of their defense have been pretty bad. A Bears fans who are not just looking at this season
Starting point is 00:05:02 and trying to figure out where this team is going to go in the Ben Johnson era with Caleb Williams. It comes down to like, do you believe in the. offense. I'm interested what you think of how the offensive has come through, you know, seven games this year. And honestly, like, where your take is on Caleb Williams now that we have seven
Starting point is 00:05:16 games with him and Ben Johnson. I think Ben Johnson is still scheming it up pretty well. You kind of see that every week, even last week, they had a great screen call at like a key time in the second half against the Ravens where you're just like that. That's a great call. That created an explosive play. They've gotten the run game
Starting point is 00:05:32 going, I think, over the last, what, three weeks or so. Caleb Williams, it's one of those awesome where it's like, you turn it on for a possession and you're like, I see it. This guy, he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. You turn it on a different possession and you're like, he doesn't have it. How does anybody defend this guy? He's terrible.
Starting point is 00:05:51 I would like to congrats Caleb Williams. Congratulate Caleb Williams, Austin, because every year we have a quarterback who we can't really have a normal conversation about. It's like either they're overrated, they stink, bench him now. This guy's terrible. Or, you know, sometimes it's the hipsters versus the North. You've heard me talk about this before. So the normies are saying that.
Starting point is 00:06:11 And the hipsters are going, no, man, you got to watch the film the next day. Like, this guy isn't the problem. He's fantastic. I have a very boring Caleb Williams take. It's not controversial. I see the upside. I see the inconsistencies. Overall, I would say I've been underwhelmed over the last two seasons.
Starting point is 00:06:29 But there's a chance he figures it out and goes on a heater. Again, that's very boring. Like, we're not going to clip that for social. That's not fun. That's not going to do numbers. but that's how I feel about Caleb Williams. Where are you? What am I right about?
Starting point is 00:06:40 What am I wrong about? I mean, I think it's a lot of what you're saying is right. And I think the right take is somewhere in the middle of like he can be and will be this top five quarterback in the league and like, oh my gosh, he's unplayable and all that stuff. I do think that what makes some of this worse is that he is inaccurate with the ball often. Right. And I think some of that is like rushing his feet, rushing his process. And I think the other piece of it too that I think stands out, especially to Normies, it's just like when he misses, he's missing with fastballs. and like they look worse, they look uncatchable.
Starting point is 00:07:08 Like the DJ Moore one in the back of the end zone that everyone's talked about after this week, even though the game was kind of already out of hand. Like an inaccurate pass that isn't throwing like 150 miles an hour, I think has a different reaction than when like Caleb Williams is missing these passes and they're flying by guys. And they almost look, again, like even uncatchable if they hit a receiver in the hands. I do think that he needs to figure out how to like calm down in the pocket.
Starting point is 00:07:29 I think that when he's in these high pressure moments, I don't even think necessarily when he's pressured. Because I think when he's pressured, he has a ton of like crazy confidence. And you see that there was that one DJ Moore throw, a different DJ more throw in that game where he's like crazy off his back foot flings it up. DJ more catches one hand.
Starting point is 00:07:44 Like I do think that he has a good amount of, I think it's when these moments, there are a lot of pressure in the moment, right? Where I feel like he needs to rise to the occasion be the best guy. And I think that's where he's only playing the league for a year and a half now. I think another number one overall quarterback,
Starting point is 00:07:57 Trevor Lawrence, who I think has had a very long leash in terms of criticism versus Norris and hipsters and all that stuff. And it's like, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lauren. I feel like, the same conversation we're going to be having about both those guys. Yeah, I think the key difference is Caleb is obviously still in the second year of his career. I think he has a little bit more talent, specifically with his arm,
Starting point is 00:08:17 how alive his arm is in the kinds of throws that he can make than Trevor Lawrence does. And I think that's what also has a lot of people holding out hope and expecting more of Caleb Williams. And going into the season, a lot of people want to see him take this step with Ben Johnson. He has weapons. Roma Dunstay, DJ Moore, it should be there. It has to be said, too, the offensive line hasn't been great. They've had to start Theo Beneddei at left tackle. They started with Braxton Jones. Interior has injuries.
Starting point is 00:08:38 I do think that Chicago needs to tool up the offensive line. Obviously, they're avoiding injuries there. It's not all on Caleb Williams, even though as much as it we want it to be. And I think a lot of fans want it to be like, it's Caleb Williams. It's the problem. I think Caleb Williams and this offense,
Starting point is 00:08:51 even though I do think that they're frauds in terms of being deep postseason contenders, mostly for the defense and that this offense isn't going to all of a sudden be like game breaking at the second half of the season. They have some easy games coming up. I think over the second half of the season, And you continue to see this like roller coaster with the team.
Starting point is 00:09:05 But over time, I do think it's trending up. And I'm honestly already kind of really looking forward to year two of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson together. Okay. Yeah, I would agree that his highs are higher than like Trevor Lawrence's highs were at this point in his career. And even now, I mean, you watch a full game. If you watch every throw throughout the course of a game, it's easy to pick out five throws where you're like, man, not a lot of guys can do that. And that's reason to be excited.
Starting point is 00:09:30 If you're a bear's fan, it doesn't mean. it's all going to come together at some point. Maybe it will. I don't know for sure that it will, but for it to come together this season, like for them to be a playoff team, I don't think it's coming with the defense being more consistent. I think there has to be a point where you're saying, oh, this is actually happening this year. You don't have to wait for next year with Ben Johnson. Caleb Williams is figuring it out. They look a little more consistent here. That's kind of their path to being a playoff team. But eighth hardest remaining schedule, Austin, Packers twice, Lions, Eagles, 40,
Starting point is 00:10:02 right now, they're plus 260 to make the playoffs. So I just think that defense is going to have issues the rest of the way. We'll see if the offense can make up for it. All right. Next team here, the Pittsburgh Steelers, you are on fraud watch. I'm not just being a hater here, because they're actually on fraud watch for different reasons than I thought they were going to be on fraud watch for. So let me explain.
Starting point is 00:10:26 They're four and three. They have a two-game lead over the Ravens to win the AFC North, yet they're plus one, to win the division. The Ravens are still the favorites. And I expected the Steelers to be frauds this year because I thought the Aaron Rogers situation was going to be a disaster. Just a quarterback that age, new team.
Starting point is 00:10:46 I didn't think the supporting cast was great. That experiment has actually, I would say, it's gone as well as anyone could have expected. You can look at the numbers or just watching whatever. Like they've had a mediocre to above average offense, I would say. And Aaron Rogers is making some plays outside of it. the structure, they're scheming some stuff up with D.K. Matcalf, the run game has looked good.
Starting point is 00:11:07 The problem is that I don't think people understand the degree to which this defense sucks. Like, and I don't, you know, like Mike Tomlin has been there for 19 seasons, Austin. Where do you think this defense ranks among the 19 defenses he's coached in terms of EPA per draft? I'm going to say, dead last. Dead last. Thanks. See, I should have set it up better. The way I set it up, of course he's going to say, dead last. Yes, they're dead. I have these stats too. Yards oil per drive this millennium,
Starting point is 00:11:36 32nd. It's 32nd this year. It's allowed four more yards per drive than any Steelers defense this millennium. That even goes before the Mike Tomlin era. Success rate 29. This defense is the highest paid defense in the league. One of the oldest defenses in the league.
Starting point is 00:11:52 And that's part of it, right? You're paying a lot of old players, veteran players, whatever. It's the highest pay defense in league, one of the oldest defense of league. And I think if the Cowboys didn't exist, would be the worst defense in the league. It's that bad. which is wild to say, and I think it's okay to point the finger a little bit at the either coaching staff or personnel side.
Starting point is 00:12:09 Because to your point, they go out, they get Darius Lay, you know, they signed Patrick Queen a couple of years ago. They trade for Jalen Ramsey. They get rid of Minka Fitzpatrick. So they've made kind of all these moves to add these veterans. I looked at their pass rush at the beginning of the season. I looked at their front the beginning of the season. And I'm like, that's going to be a top 10 defense. It's talented enough.
Starting point is 00:12:31 And they haven't really been decimated by injuries. This isn't one of those seasons where it's like, oh, T.J. Watts out for eight weeks and your whole defense comes crumbling down. No, they haven't had the most devastating injuries. And yet, to your point, every metric you look at, their bottom three, bottom five. And let me read you this quote, Austin, from ESPN. This is from Juan Thornhill after the game said this on Monday. If I'm being completely honest, I don't feel like the effort was there. We've got to have that conversation.
Starting point is 00:13:01 We got to let everybody know that effort should not be something that we should be paying attention to. You always need to play hard. Last year, the same stuff was happening as this defense fell apart down the stretch and people are pointing fingers. And then ultimately they trade Minka Fitzpatrick. Like, why is this happening again eight weeks into the season? So I would be very, very concerned if I were a Steelers fan. Can I go quote for quote with you? Yeah, please.
Starting point is 00:13:28 Cam Hayward. Cam Hayward after this game. He's been with them since 2011. veteran. I mean, when you think of the Steelers defense as TJ Y, you think of Cam Hayward. He said, and this, this shocked me. This absolutely shocked me. He said, there's not a lot of fight in us right now.
Starting point is 00:13:44 I literally just like, for a Steelers defense, for Mike Tomlin, for Cameron Hayward to say there's not a lot of fighting us right now. They're four and three. They've had like a moderate, like, there's a reason they're on fraud watch because they've had a winning record though. Rogers looks better than you expected.
Starting point is 00:13:58 Like there's things here. Highest paid defense. There's, like you said, Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, there's talent, T.J. Watt. There's not a lot of fighting us right now. That screams like the worst we've seen from the Tomlin era in terms of the defense and stuff. I think that that kind of sums up. And you bring up, you know, Darius Slay is 34 years old. I think of any position in the league, once you turn 30, how quickly it can fall off for you. Of the positions we've seen retire at halftime or retire in the middle of the season,
Starting point is 00:14:24 it's always usually a corner. It's Vante Davis. It's Xavier and Howard this season. I think retired like after a game like corners no like there's I think there's like the corner secondary too like some corners make this transition after 30 to safety or you saw that with charles woodson other corners have done that in the past richard sherman i think tried that late in his career but if you don't and you're 31 32 33 sticking at corner you age like milk man and it turns like that and i think you've seen that with darius sleigh jalen ramsay has played pretty well this year and
Starting point is 00:14:55 he's only 31 he just turned 31 i think this month but darius lay i think you've seen it um Joey Bore Jr. has been hurt and banged up a little bit, but I don't think he's played well when healthy either. They just saw him to Sean Elliott, the safety. I don't know how long he's going to be out. I think it's a bone bruise. They've had some injuries, but I think the quotes, like you're saying,
Starting point is 00:15:10 I didn't see the one Thornton Hill quote, but like, oh my God, Cam Heyward, the leader of this team, a guy who's been through like the last 10 plus years of these defenses to say, is not fighting us right now. That screams to me like this Steelers team already knows. Even at 4 and 3, that's going to be hard for them to overcome. I did have some stats for Rogers and in the offense
Starting point is 00:15:25 because I agree it has looked better, but like this is a complete phony, ridiculous offense. You don't think it's sustainable. Okay. Not at all. One, Aaron Rogers, he turns 42 in December. He's 41 years old right now. You can kind of feel that he's struggling
Starting point is 00:15:40 specifically when he has to move out of the pocket and when he is pressured. He's overall this year, 23rd in dropback success rate. Gino Smith has a better dropback success rate than Aaron Rogers. Spencer Rattler, who just got benched, has a better success rate. Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Carson Wentz. Down to down, the offense is not.
Starting point is 00:15:56 not been super successful. 62% of Aaron Rogers' yards have come after the catch. That's the highest in weeks 1 through 8 for any quarterback this millennium. It's a fake offense. He's lowest average depth of target. On average, he's throwing 3.2 yards short of the line of games, so short of the sticks. That's the lowest in the league by a margin.
Starting point is 00:16:15 The offense is catered around him getting the ball out fast and guys making plays after the catch, which works, to a degree, for a while. But it's not ultimately one when you go down in these games and your defense is giving up a ton of points, that's going to allow you to kind of be playoff competitive. I think that they know on both sides of the ball even, even if that Rogers has been better than maybe people expected and the defense is highly paying. There are some stars. I think they know on both sides of the ball that this team, again, does not have fighting them. And for the reason it is, like, they just, I don't think they're going to be competitive against, this was like the first time in a while
Starting point is 00:16:44 because they've had a little bit of a cupcake schedule some of these games. But like, you saw them against his Packers team that a lot of people think is going to be a Super Bowl contender in the NFC. And it just didn't really feel competitive, even though the score was a little bit closer. You can just tell, like, the Packers are a better team on both sides of the ball. They felt better coach. They struggle with penalties this year. I really do think that this Steelers team feels different and worse than their record suggests. Yeah, the difference in some of those numbers, obviously, it's predicated on not turning the football over.
Starting point is 00:17:09 Can you still create explosives with those yards after the catch, which they've done a good job out? You know, you can give Arthur Smith the credit and say, okay, finding ways to use DK Metcalf in that way. Rogers has made some plays outside of structure. He had one last week. he had one the previous week where he's kind of rolling to his right and can still chuck the football 40, 50 yards downfield, you're right? But I am with you. I mean, right now, they're 12th in EPA per drive.
Starting point is 00:17:34 Where do you think they finish this season just when we look at how every offense ranks? How much of a fall are you predicting? Probably somewhere between 16 and 19, maybe in that, like, slightly below average range. Because I still think they're, you know, they're going to be able to have success with this kind of like, I wouldn't call it gimmicky, but getting the ball out quick, make some plays out of the catch. They have some town. Like I really like D.K. McCaff.
Starting point is 00:17:55 I think their tight end group is really good as well. Where I feel like I struggle is this upcoming schedule for them, right? They have the Colts at Chargers, Bills, Ravens twice. They didn't get a chance at the Ravens when they were at their least healthy, right? Lamar Jackson says he's 100% healthy now. Some of the guys on defense are coming back. They also have the Lions.
Starting point is 00:18:14 Their easiest games left on the schedule, hosting the Bengals, who they just lost to, at the Bears who we know run hot cold, and it's going to be in Chicago, hosting the dolphins who, again, other team that runs hot cold. It just beat up on, it was the Falcons this week. A lot of people think have the best defense in the league. And then they got to go to Cleveland, which, yeah, Cleveland's not great. Offense is good.
Starting point is 00:18:32 Steelers to beat them this year. But again, that's a really good defense that could maybe shut down what is the best side of the ball for the Steelers right now. It's not an easy schedule to finish. You got quotes from everybody saying they don't have fighting them. Offense feels a little bit hard to sustain. And the defense is objectively one of the worst in the league and the worst that Tomlin has ever had to deal with, which I think is a change for him.
Starting point is 00:18:50 And even if you like what Rogers has done, so far, I gave this stat out 400 times in the summer that the only quarterback to start more than 10 games at his age has been Tom Brady. So there's a reason for that. Now, he has exceeded my expectation so far. Can he say healthy? Can he take hits throughout the course of a 17-game season? Fifth hardest remaining schedule, to your point, according to the betting market. So tough road ahead. We'll see if the Steelers can fix some of those things. They did acquire Kyle Dugger from the Patriot. So I think that they're saying, all right, let's get a safety show now. I know, there's a difference maker.
Starting point is 00:19:25 I'm just saying it was a news item. So I had to mention it. Austin can't stop from laughing with that one. That's not going to make a difference. All right, let's take a break. We come back. I got one more team on Fraud Watch. This episode is brought to you by State Farm.
Starting point is 00:19:39 Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field, but getting a line cook. Sure, they both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up. but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal.
Starting point is 00:20:03 Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. One of my only good takes was a few weeks ago that Jacksonville is the stupidest team in the NFL. And I said that before they had that London game where everybody got to see, man, this seems like a really stupid team. They're four and three.
Starting point is 00:20:21 I don't trust them at all. I mean, what do they actually do well is a good question? They're three and one in one score games. They're third in turnover EPA. You watch them. You see Trevor Lawrence being inaccurate with the football. You see drops by their wide receivers. You see penalties.
Starting point is 00:20:37 I mean, they're averaging 9.3 penalties per game the most in the NFL. They lead the league in all the stupid stuff. And I don't believe in them. I don't believe the defense has been better than I was expecting. but still it's a lot of turnover luck stuff. And I just think this is another team, despite being four and three, despite being minus 132, Austin,
Starting point is 00:20:59 to make the playoffs. So the betting markets are telling you, they think this team's getting in. I don't think it's happening. I think they're frauds. Are you with me? Or do you have a little more belief in the Jacksonville Jaguars?
Starting point is 00:21:10 I think I believe in the Jags more than I do either of the other teams on this fraud watch here. Okay, so one team out of three to make the playoffs. You're going Jacks. Yeah, which I'm. I mean, I guess lines up with where the betting markets is.
Starting point is 00:21:22 Betting markets are. I think the Bears are like plus 260, like you said. The Steelers are plus 122 and the Jags are at minus 132. And I think some of that's the schedule coming out of the buy, taking on my Raiders. I think that should be an easy one for them. Cardinals, they have. They still have to play the Titans twice, which should be wins.
Starting point is 00:21:37 They also have the jet still. Their hardest games left. Texans, Colts twice, which have been a wagon this year, Chargers and Broncos. I think the positives for me are, I do believe in Liam Cohen as a coach. I do think that even though they've been pretty bad with some of the stupid stuff like you're saying, the turnover looks there, but also like they lead the league in penalties per game, they lead the league in drops going into the buy.
Starting point is 00:22:01 You know, he has, he does this thing every single week where he puts up like who the like key game wrecker. Who's going to mess us up this week? Who on our opponent is going to game wreck us this week? And going into that Rams game, he used a picture of the Jaguar's logo. And it was because like they know they're being up on themselves. They're dropping the ball aton, misused between Trevor Lawrence and his receivers, penalties, everywhere. They have to clean that stuff up. I think that's more tangible to
Starting point is 00:22:24 clean up, especially coming after the by and the second half the season, first year head coach, he's figuring all this management stuff out. And I ultimately, I do think that they have talent on both sides of the ball that they can still take more advantage of. I think the best of Travis Hunter has to be in front of us. The best of Brian Thomas Jr.
Starting point is 00:22:40 this season has to be in front of us. It has to. We'll see. It's been a tough start of the season. And then defensively, like, you know, obviously the turnover's where they were they were there's, I think they're second behind the Bears and turnovers force this year, which again, it's another, you know, lucky stat. But I do think they have some talent on that side of the ball, Josh Heinz Allen, Trayvon Walker, like Devin Lloyd.
Starting point is 00:23:01 This team needs to stop shooting themselves in the foot. And if they can do that, especially with the schedule that they have remaining, I do think they can be competitive in these games. The other thing, too, I meant to mention this at the top. Liam Cohen's effect on the run game in Tampa Bay, I think was under discussed because everyone obviously focused on the Baker side of it and him revitalizing Baker and that passing offense ball. But he really, like, he quietly turned the bucks
Starting point is 00:23:23 into a very good rushing offense with, with Bucky Irving and Rashad White. I think in Jacksonville, I think they have a top 10 rushing attack by EPA per rush. You've seen some of the explosives with ETN. I think he's, that's going to continue. I think this offense can get better as it starts with the drops and the penalties.
Starting point is 00:23:38 And then defensively, still town on that side. I believe in the D.C. I don't know. I think overall, the Jags, do they play down to their opponent? Do they make mistakes you wouldn't believe? And is Trevor Lawrence, like, generally pretty inaccurate and kind of similar rollercoaster? to Kayla Williams, yes, I still think the sum of the parts are a lot better than what we have
Starting point is 00:23:54 in Chicago right now and than what we have in Pittsburgh too. I would agree with you that Liam Cohen, the scheme stuff that he did in Tampa has carried over. I think he has done a good job in terms of offensive scheming. Now, I do feel like he is one of my favorite new characters in the NFL because he feels like a bit of a loose cannon when you watch him gesturing to Trevor Lawrence with his inaccuracies or when you see him, tell him Robert, I'll keep my name out. your mouth after a game. Like he is a very entertaining guy. Is that built for, you know, is there a situation this season where he's just MFing him and Trevor Lawrence are just MFing each other as they walk. Yes, I think that's in play. There's a lot. It's a highly volatile
Starting point is 00:24:34 situation where I am with you. I do think it is as simple as if they stop doing stupid stuff. They could actually sneak into the playoffs as a wildcar team. But when I watch them, I see no signs of a team that's going to stop doing stupid stuff. So maybe I'll maybe I'll be wrong there. It does feel like that classic team, you know, there's always that team in Week 18 that's favored and that they win and they're going to go into the playoffs. Oh, like, oh, they just need to win this one game and oh, like, they're even resting starters on the other side, this player. And then they somehow just like fumble it. It does feel like that's this team at the end of, which makes me, maybe that makes them frauds.
Starting point is 00:25:10 But I don't know. I still feel like I'm buying the Jaguars more than I am buying the Steelers this season or I'm buying the Bears this season. because I think I'd be more shocked that in January, if the Bears had a playoff win, or if the Steelers had a playoff win, then it would necessarily with the Jacks. It's such a good call. It's going to be week 18.
Starting point is 00:25:27 They're going to be 10.5 point favorites. It's going to be like, well, you know, the Ravens or the Texans can get in if they win and the Jaguars lose, but what are the odds of that happening? And we're going to have both games on. It's Titans at Jaguars. Week 18.
Starting point is 00:25:43 Oh, this is perfect. What a call. That's going to be it. We're playing this back in January. That is absolutely the destiny of the 2025 Jaguars. I actually feel like the Steelers. If I had to pick one of these three teams, the Steelers would find some way.
Starting point is 00:25:57 They have a lead in their division to just kind of sneak in. Not that I like them. We just made the case for why they're frauds. But I think I have a little more trust in them, especially at plus 122 versus the Jaguars at minus 132. I think the friction I have real quick on the Steelers. Just that lasting. I've heard this a lot on the Bill Simmons podcast.
Starting point is 00:26:15 as well, like, where I feel like we have a lot of this in us of like, the Steelers just kind of always find a way. Like, they have this like fumble or there's this big defensive play or strips like, our brains are not catching up to this Steelers uniform. Let's throw out the one they wore this previous game, but the Steelers uniform being bad on defense. I think we're catching up to that. It's like, oh my God.
Starting point is 00:26:34 Like, whoa, whoa, like this Steelers defense isn't good and it's not going to come up with these big plays and they're down to scores already. Like I feel like the luck boxing that they get that has helped them in these stretches where like you feel like they grind these stuff out. It's not there. if you're getting ran up and down the field. Like some of these underlying metrics, yards per drive, points per drive, all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:26:51 I don't know. Now, if they do make the playoffs, they do have a playoff win, unsung here. Not unsung, but Chris Boswell, man. One of the best kickers in the league. He's a monster, dude. So reliable. I feel like the Steelers are the best.
Starting point is 00:27:03 You are right. A lot of those games felt like, R.A. Watt with this trip sack. You know, something defensively, a guy making a play where their offense didn't have to do anything. But you're right. That's not this team. That hasn't been this team.
Starting point is 00:27:14 Maybe it'll turn. Maybe they'll figure something. out, but it doesn't look that way right now. All right, Austin, Gail is not on fraud watch. There you go. Nailed it there at the end. Thank you, Austin, so much for joining me. I'll be right back with the hurry up. All right, the hurry up is our closing segment where I give you a take on news in the NFL. And on Tuesday, we learned that Lamar Jackson is set to make his return Thursday night against the Miami Dolphins. This is such a fascinating stretch for Jackson. He is a two-time MVP, still chasing that Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:27:49 It felt like coming into the year. The Ravens were Super Bowl favorites. They were a popular pick. Now they're two and five. Yet as we mentioned earlier in this episode, they're still the favorites in the AFC North. So I'm looking ahead and thinking, can Jackson write another chapter to his legacy here?
Starting point is 00:28:07 In other words, even if he's less than 100%, can he find a way to play well and go on a run? Does he need to change the way he plays? if he's limited with that hamstring injury, is it just pocket Lamar, just dicing up defenses with his arm. It's always interesting to me
Starting point is 00:28:24 when great players get put in situations like this. So that's one scenario. The other scenario is that it doesn't happen. And we just realize it's full year-from-Hell mode for the Ravens. Even though this season hasn't gone the way Jackson would have liked, both those scenarios are in play, which is why I think he's one of the most intriguing players. in the NFL for the next 10 weeks, starting Thursday night in this game against the dolphins.
Starting point is 00:28:52 All right, appreciate everyone listening. Thank you to Austin Gale. Thanks to Christopher Sutton for producing Kira Givens on social, additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal. I'm Sheila Kapadia. We'll talk to you tomorrow on the ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming.
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