The Ringer NFL Show - Free Agency Extravaganza and CBA Update | Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: March 12, 2020

We take a big-picture look at free agency, including the players on the open market who impress us the most, guys we’re not talking about who will make an impact, and 2020 bold predictions (1:30). Then we discuss the impending CBA vote, what both the NFL and players have learned from past bargaining agreements, the potential switch to 17 games, and varying players' opinions on the deal (34:50). Host: Kevin Clark Guest: Sheil Kapadia and Andrew Brandt Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, guys, this is Kelly, and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. Make sure to check out the latest edition to the Ringer lineup, Music Exists. Each week, Chris Ryan and Chuck Kloesterman ask and answer questions about their love of music while exploring the role of concerts, locations, fandom, criticism, genre, lyrics, and much, much more. You can listen to new episodes of Music Exists and follow along every week for free on Spotify. It's the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark. Got a big show today because I think that this week is one of the most pivotal weeks, really in the modern NFL.

The collective bargaining agreement will be voted on this weekend. And no sport changes with the CBA as much as football. The way teams are built, the way players are valued, let alone paid changes with each CBA. We saw that in 2011. We saw that in 2006. And we'll see it this year. Beyond that, obviously, there could be a 17th game. There probably will be another playoff game.

And so the rules of the sport are essentially being rewritten this weekend. And then beyond that, if that wasn't enough, next week brings free agency where a guy like Tom Brady might be available. So this is really a week where everything could change. And so to put that into context, we have two very smart guests. Sheila Capadia, senior writer at The Athletic and Andrew Brandt, former Packers executive, current agent, sports business guru, two really smart guys to have some good discussion with. Let's start with Sheila. All right, we're joined now by one of my favorite writers in sports media. Shield Capadia from the athletic.

What's up, buddy? What's up, man? How you doing? I'm doing okay. I'm doing okay. We're riding out this apocalypse here. That's right. With some free agency talk.

That's right. I just moisturized after using hand sanitizer. You got to do the one-two combo very important. So that's my advice for the listeners. Well, we're going to be very optimistic and talk about the things that are going to happen five years from now when everything is going to be fine. And that's free agency because it starts next week. The CBA vote is this weekend. The franchise tag deadline is kind of a mess in the sense that right now you can use two franchise tags.

And if the CPA passes, you can only use one. That impacts teams like the Cowboys who certainly would like to tag two guys. But I want to talk big picture because you and I have both sort of talked about this in the last year. And you wrote up a column about it a couple weeks ago about free agency in general because I think that when you still talk to these old school coaches or even some of these old school GMs, there's a lot of teams of view for agency as a bad thing. And it's, oh, you're just paying for somebody else's mistakes or, oh, there's a reason that these guys are free. And that's not really the case anymore. There are players who do bet on themselves. Obviously, the franchise tag,

I mean, the franchise tag is ludicrous. Basically, you can control player for the first eight years of his career. And by the time he's 31 or 32, and he reaches the open market, he may not be valuable, but there are enough guys who reach free agency to where it's a real team building method. And the cap keeps going up $10 million a year and essentially, you know, that that would just only spike once the new CBA happens. And so from my point of view, if you sign a lot of free agents, you could be doing the right thing. Not always, but definitely it's a team building tactic. When you look at free agency right now in 2020, Shield, how do you view it and what do teams need to do to not screw it up. Yeah, there's definitely a middle ground. I think you're right,

probably maybe 10 years ago. It was, you would have these splashy signings and teams would be crowned the offseason champs. And then you had this other faction that would say, you know, kind of make fun of them and say you got to sit out free agency. Don't even dip your toe in the water. And I think both those things are wrong, as you said. I think that the dream team Eagles set for agency back a decade. I think you might, you might be right about that. But I do think there's a middle ground, as you said, where you have to use it. You have to explore every avenue to make your roster better. Don't make dumb decisions. I think the big, I guess if there's like a big theme to it, it's that you want to maintain sort of flexibility down the road. You know, the last thing you want

to do is make signings and free agency. And then whether it's next offseason or the offseason after that, you're stuck with these players who didn't pan out. They have guaranteed money. You can't really get out of it. So, I mean, there's a number of different rules probably to follow. You know, I think a lot of it is don't do what the Jets did last offseason. That's a pretty standard rule for most. You didn't have to say last offseason, Sheel. But I was writing this column and, you know, I kept trying to look for examples of the rules I was writing. And I just kept going back to the Jets.

But I think one of them is don't like fall in love with a player and convince yourself that you have to have the guy. And the example of really is C.J. Mosley from last year. Like basically it sounded like C.J. Mosley's representation went to the Jets and was basically like, listen, he wants to resign with the Ravens. That's what he's probably going to do. You have to make us some crazy like offer that we can't even fathom right now to get him. And they were like, okay, how's five years, 85 million sound? And they were like, well, all right, that's kind of a big chunk of change and a big difference than what he was going to get. So we will sign with you. So I think that's probably a big rule to stick with. It reminds me there's a story about the Trent Brown negotiations last year.

they were going to wait and see on Trump Brown. Trump Brown was going to wait and see and then he gets it off from the Raiders. And his agent was like, yeah, negotiations are over. You're a Raider. Like they offered him so much money that there was no more wait and see or playing this process out. It's usually a bad sign when that happens. Although, you know, the Jets are in a different class. I think the Raiders are a better run team at this point.

Okay. So let's get into the actual people who are going to reach for agency. Tom Brady is one of them. Chris Jones will not be doing it. Yanukkah has been a franchise tagged along with Jones. The guys who are on the open market, who impresses you most? It's interesting with some of those guys. Like in Gakway, I would it be surprised.

It feels like the tag and trade is going to be a trend, maybe? Yes, without a doubt. And there are a lot of teams rumored for that. Is there a destination you have in mind? For in Gakwe, I'm doing this piece where I'm predicting where every person lands. And I kind of think the Seahawks might make a run at him. That's been the chatter. And I think that's, it seems extremely Pete.

Yes. You know, they're in a window where they should be competing for a Super Bowl. Their defensive line, their pass rush was one of the worst in the NFL last year. And Gakwe has been very productive. He's only 25 years old. So Chris Ballard, I think, is, you know, more conservative. But if I were the Colts, I mean, that would be a move I would look into. You know, they could certainly use a defensive end.

and they could make a play for him. So he's certainly near the top of my list. Chris Jones, you mentioned he would be there. I don't know. Mari Cooper, I don't think he's going to hit the open market. Do you disagree? I mean, it depends on this damn tag thing. Yeah.

I think he might. I mean, I think he might. I think that the, the Dak Prescott contract negotiations, the fact that he bet on himself like this is going to cost the Cowboys so much money. And I understand what they're doing. But I feel like, you know, first of all, I was completely unmoved by on Tuesday or Monday or whenever it was, the reports of that contract offer.

Why would Dak Prescott sign a contract offer four days before a new CBA with a money total, probably less than Jared Goff, if you're to believe reports? I mean, I just feel like I don't have the Cowboys watched Dak Prescott? Like, he's really good. And I don't know. The whole thing is a mess there. And I think Dak's betting on himself because he can make a lot of money because of it. Amari Cooper, I don't know.

I mean, I don't know how this plays out. There's so many things, you know, I saw Greg Rosenthal point this out the other day. Once the CBA gets settled, let's say that Saturday night, Sunday and Monday is going to be just a deluge of league transactions like we haven't seen in a long time. Because there's a lot of teams waiting to do things, whether that sign somebody, trade somebody, whatever. And they're going to do that as soon as the CBA gets handled. I mean, listen, there was a report that the Patriots weren't even really in touch with Tom Brady because they were waiting for the CBA to play itself out. So I think once that happens, we'll have a lot more clarity. I think obviously the other elephant in the room, there's a lot of elephants in the room for the Cowboys, is Byron Jones, who looks like he's about to bail and, you know, be one of these high-price free agents.

Is there a destination? Like, is that Philly for him? Is that Washington? If you're Byron Jones, where's the fit? Yeah, I think you're right about just how crazy it's going to be. I think it's going to be good for people like us because we're really going to see which teams are organized and ready for the various scenarios and which ones are like the team on the clock where, you know, the guy they want to pick gets picked before them and they panic and don't have a plan. I think there's going to be certainly a lot of that going on. But with Byron Jones, yeah, it does sound like he's going to be the odd man out.

And with the cowboys, I think, their overall thought should be run it back on offense. I mean, we know the best way to sustain success is to have an efficient offense year in and year out. And obviously, Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are two big parts of that. So I think Jones is going to hit the open market. I think he's going to be the highest paid cornerback in the NFL. I do think the Eagles are probably going to make an aggressive run at him. I think they're going to have competition. I think the Raiders definitely need cornerback help and they have money to spend.

I think the Giants, I feel like, I mean, Gettlman is just a complete wildcard at this point. I think he's happy. That's one word for it. Yeah, he's still. I find him very entertaining, though. I really don't want him to get fired or let go. Just at the Combine, when you, like, listen to different GMs talk. Entertainment value, he's the top five GM in the NFL.

Isn't Brandon Whedon the all-time example of a team panicking because the guy they wanted was gone? Isn't he? Have you ever heard that story? Go ahead. Essentially, they wanted Kendall Wright. And then Kendall Wright got drafted and they panicked and they drafted a 30-year-old quarterback. Well, that's a good one. But then there was the Vikings, too, who just didn't even get the pick.

Oh, right. Well, that's, yeah. that's the pinnacle. They've done that twice. That was that was the pinnacle of not knowing what to do. But I would argue that taking Brandon Whedon is is not a million miles away from not picking it all. Yeah. No, I think those are in the same ballpark. But I think Jones is going to be really attractive to teams because, I mean, he's such a good cover guy and he doesn't have like eye-popping stats because he doesn't get thrown at a lot. But the other thing about him is like, if you are going up against an offense that their best player is in a wide receiver, like let's say it's George. Kittle or Zach Ertz or, you know, one of these tight ends that are coming up, like Jones can just match up with that guy on third down and in the red zone and take them out of the game. And I think that kind of versatility will really be attractive to teams. And then I think

you alleviate some risk with him because let's say two years down the road and I don't think this is likely, but his skills start to a road. I mean, he's already played free safety at a high level. So obviously you don't want, you're not going to pay 18 million for a free safety. But if, you know, it does give you some cover where, hey, if he's not. as good as we thought at corner, we can move him somewhere else down the line once he gets older. Yeah, I mean, this is no exaggeration. He is one of the best athletes in the history of the NFL draft. I mean, he, that is, that is, there's data on that. He's 27 years old. I know that athleticism is the first thing to go, but I think I'd be, I'd be fine having him on, you know,

guaranteed for three years or something like that. If what are the, just this is an aside, before you go back to the free agency thing. We talked about the Eagles, the destination for him. What do the Eagles need to do to get back to legitimate contention? I think it's cornerback and wide receiver, really. I mean, I don't think it's overly complicated. And I think corner is where they'll be aggressive in free agency. I think if there are trade options at wide receiver, they will explore those. But they're probably more likely to address that in the draft.

This wide receiver group in free agency is pretty terrible. I mean, like, I think it would be really hard to convince yourself to pay like a Robbie Anderson, whatever he wants, whether it's $12, $13 million a year and think that that's good value given the draft class that's coming up. So I'm really curious to see what guys like this get. I mean, it's not a great group. It's like Breshaad Perriman, you know, there's a Devin Funches, Nelson Aguilar, Emmanuel Sanders is an interesting one. But it's not a great group of wide receivers, but there are so many wide receiver needy teams. I mean, we talked about Cooper earlier. Like if he were to hit the market and let's say the Patriots bring back Tom Brady, you know,

If I were them, I would say, all right, let's make a big play for Cooper. The Eagles should be interested. The Packers, I mean, if they're going to go all in on this window with Aaron Rogers, they should be interested. Even a team like the Saints, you know, I know they have Michael Thomas, but if you say we might have one year of Drew Brees here and let's add another big playmaker, they should be a team that should be interested. So like, if you're the Cowboys, you have to realize that and know that you're going to have

to pay up to keep the guy. It's the same point you made earlier with Dak Prescott. It's almost like they are operating under the, the assumption that they have more leverage than they do. And I don't really think they do with those two guys. Can you give me a couple guys that we're not talking about enough in for agency who are going to make an impact in 2020? One guy I like is Corey Littleton, the Rams linebacker. And normally I am against, you know, shelling out big money for offball linebackers. But I'm kind I'm softening that a little bit with guys like him because he's so good in coverage. Like he can

match up with tight ends and running backs. A lot of these targets are going to those guys. He can stay on the field for three downs. He has really good production in terms of being a playmaker. He's really durable. So like all those red flags that you look for in a free agent signing that could go bad. He seems to be a little bit safer. He's only 26 years old. So he's one of the players that I really like, you know, maybe a team like the Raiders, the Giants. One of those teams might make a play for him, I think. I think it's interesting. We had Teres Pailor on last week and he wrote about the offball linebacker a couple weeks ago and just how it's growing because of what you say because defense are being stretched. You need someone to handle the George

Kittle types or the Zacherts types or whatever it is. And so it's a little more valuable than maybe it was a couple of years ago. So I think that's an intriguing one. I think that someone like Littleton, I mean, that's kind of what we're talking about, where it's like the middle tier of free agents where you get those real values. And I think the other area that I like is the veteran pass rusher market. Like I think that that's a place where you can get a guy who's 30, 31 on a short-term deal and he can be really effective. One guy, you know, Jason Pierre Paul, like, I just feel like no one even has looked at this guy's numbers the last two years because of, you know, there's the fireworks and then he had

the big injury. He's in Tampa, just completely irrelevant. Yeah, everyone forgets about it. I mean, he played 10 games last year. He had 8 and a half sacks. He had 12 and a half sacks the year before. I just think he's a really good edge rusher. If you're a 4-3 team and you don't want to spend at the top of the market, you don't want

to trade for Ngakwe, you don't want to sign Clowny. Like I was thinking a team like the Ravens, go get Jason Pierre Paul. I mean, it's a good veteran. He can add to your pass rush. He can really help you for two years. Another guy like that might be Robert Quinn. He had a great year with the Cowboys last year. So we mentioned Seattle earlier.

If they don't make a big splash, if they don't bring back Clowny or in Gakwe, like go sign Robert Quinn. It's not going to be as expensive. That's a 4-3 starting defensive end who can really help your pass rush. Can we name the veteran free agent pass rusher, the Chris Longspot? I like that. That's exactly what it is. You're right. Yeah. And then he signed with us at the ringer. That's right. Yeah. We got him. Maybe you can, maybe you can start a thing. Like if Jason Pierre Paul wants to do like a two-year deal and, but in there it says you will get a podcast with the ringer

upon retirement. Yeah, that could be a thing. Robert Quinn. I mean, I don't know if those, those guys are probably not as good as Chris Long. But who knows? Maybe they have untapped potential. We just got to throw them in the deep end, find out. Give them, give them 45 minutes in a microphone. All right. Shield. give me a stayaway guy on free agency. A stayaway guy here. Let me throw somebody under the bus. Okay.

I'm looking at my list here. I want to make sure I throw the right person under the bus. Or the wrong person. It doesn't matter. Let's be as reckless as possible. All right. I have one name. You know,

I mentioned Robbie Anderson, so I don't want to crush him even more. I think maybe somebody like, how about Dante Fowler? I feel like he could get overpaid. here. I think he had one good year last year and before that he wasn't really a productive pass

rusher but he's young. He does have potential so he may be someone who gets overpaid and I've got another one that I like better actually as I was scrolling. Jared Reed, the defensive tackle from the Seahogs. I mean he's had off field issues. He was suspended for six games. He had a year in 2018

where he had 10 and a half sacks but if you look at his production in his other 40 games he has five sacks and 20 quarterback hits. So I don't think he's a he's a great player to target where you're really going to get a lot of production out of him. And then, oh, wait a minute. I'm sorry. I kept scrolling. This is my final answer. I won't keep going for 10 minutes, I promise. No, we would every, we're just, the bus, the bus has been driving for 10 miles. There's so many

people under the bus. Listen, this is my specialty. This is what I like to do. I love this. How about Leonard Williams? I mean, what, the trade that gets, the, the trade that gentleman made for him last year. It is not getting crushed enough. I know we all probably crushed it at the time, but they traded two picks for half a season of Leonard Williams. The guy couldn't even have one sack.

He had 0.5 sacks last year, which actually, I think, looks worse than zero sacks. Like if it's zero sacks, maybe you can make an excuse, say, an injury or something. 0.5 sacks looks even worse. He had two tackles for loss, and you're going to pay him. Like I've heard talk about using the franchise tag on him. The guy, I mean, he's fine. He's a starting caliber defensive tackle, and you're going to pay him top of the market.

But I feel like Gettleman had just put himself in a corner where like, can you really afford to let him go at this point? So that is going to be the worst signing in free agency. I'm calling it now. Ladies and gentlemen, the bus is officially pulled out of the station. All right. That was, that was beautiful thing. And if you have anybody else to throw under the bus, feel free to interrupt me. But let's briefly move on here.

because you're on two corners that I want to talk about. Number one, you think the Bengals are going to make the playoffs. That was one of your bold predictions. Number two is you think the Falcons might make the leap into being this year's 49ers. Let's start with the Bengals thing because I want to unpack what the top of the quarterback market

looks like in the draft this year because Joe Burroughs is absolutely going to go number one. And then Tua has the capability to go two or three or four depending on who trades up or who wants to get aggressive or whatever. Let's start with the Burrow part of it. What does Burrow do to sort of unlock this Bengals team and why do you think there'll be some instant success there? Yeah, on one hand, I feel like if there's one thing I've learned about the draft or that smart people tell me about the draft, it's like, don't be overconfident.

You know, you always hear about this guy's a safe pick or this is the best prospect, any quarterback prospect anyone's seen since Andrew luck. And so it's always good to remember that he's really had 13. Can I stop you right there? Yeah. Do you not find it strange that we keep saying Andrew Luck type for like a lock? Like we keep doing this. We're just like, oh, he's as safe as Andrew Luck. Like, I love Andrew luck. Andrew Luck is one of my favorite interviews ever. He's going to be able to do whatever he wants with his life and be successful at it. And he was a good quarterback. But I, I'm sorry to say, Andrew Luck was not the the nailed on number one, you know, super duper star that we all thought he was. He's he had injuries. And I mean, if anything, the quote unquote Andrew Luck type shows us

that not nothing is guaranteed. Yeah, that that's absolutely a good point that he was the cleanest prospect, everyone graded. But even then, like you probably got, you know, even if you feel like you got the evaluation right there, it's still hard. Life happens. Yeah, there's a lot of things that have to go your way for it to work. Anyway, keep going. I interrupt you to go on an Andrew Luck tangent. Go ahead. Having said that I think that Joe Burrow, the two things that I really like, one is like the pocket presence, you know, I think you really want a quarterback or it feels like coaches now want a quarterback who can, when everything's not great, you know, your left tackle is terrible,

your right guard has a bum ankle, your offensive coordinator is a moron and it's not moving, whatever. All these things happen. And guess what? The quarterback still finds a way to put up good numbers, put you in position to win. The offense still functions. And I feel like what Burrow showed last year, that kind of projects, that he should be able to operate, even when the offensive line isn't great, even when the defense

kind of has a beat on some of the things he's doing. So that and his accuracy are one reason why I'm bullish on the Bengals. I mean, I think the supporting cast is good. Tyler Boyd is really freaking good. You know, I think if Burrow once Burrow gets there, people are going to see that. If AJ Green plays for them next

year, which it looks like he will. Joe Mixin is a very good running back. They get their first round pick, Jonah Williams on the offensive line. He didn't play last year. They'll get him back on the offensive line. So I think the pieces are in place there for the offense to be good and for Burrow to succeed right away. And the Bengals last year, they were 0 and 8 in one possession game. So they did, listen, they were not good, but they also had some bad luck.

And so if you kind of mix all that together, maybe they can make a playoff run. All right. Let's irrationally hype up the Falcons. Okay. The Falcons, I mean, it's, it really goes back to what we were talking about earlier, which is that if you have a efficient passing attack, it makes up for a lot of things, and it can be, it's really the best way to kind of sustain success. They have Matt Ryan. They have the weapons. Maybe they need to improve a little bit on the offensive line. The second half of the season, they were certainly better. So I'm not as confident in that prediction. And I'm not

overly confident in the Bengals one. That was a bold prediction. But I think the pieces are in place there for the Falcons. Now, they don't have a lot of cap space to work with. So if they're going to make some, yeah. That is putting it lightly. Yeah, they have nothing. I mean, they would really have to make some moves to, to free it up and add to the roster. But I think even if you just brought back the roster, the defense isn't going to be great,

but maybe the offense can keep you in enough games. Is there a, with regards to the top of the draft, is there a place you want Tua to go to? Because I thought I was interested when we had Terez on last week, he made the point that essentially TWA needs to go to a great organization that is going to have a great medical staff and bring him along slowly and a coach knows what to do with him and not throw them in the deep end too early. And unfortunately for Tua, the number two pick is the Redskins. Number three pick is the Detroit Lions.

Is there anything? Number four is the Giants, which they're not on the Redskins and Lions level, but they're not the Patriots right now either. Is there a home for Tua that you think makes the most sense, or is there a team you want to trade up for Tua? That's a good question. You know, I feel like the disrespect you showed to the Miami Dolphins there. Well, the dolphins are at five. Yeah.

I think the dolphins would be an amazing home for Tua. Yeah, that's the spot. That's the spot. But doesn't it make sense if he's medically clear that he wouldn't be picked fifth? He would be someone's going to go up to three or something? Yeah, but that could be them, right? I mean, it could be the dolphin. So I think you're right.

It's amazing how competent Brian Flores looked as the season went on last year. I like that organization. I like that. I did a whole thing about them. I went down in December. I met with a lot of those guys. I talked to them. They've got a plan.

The worst thing in sports is to be bad without a plan. They are the, listen, it's not a great thing to be bad with a plan, but it's certainly better than the thing I just mentioned. So I understand what they're doing, and I think that they're going to be good at some point, as long as they, as long as the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the,

look out. Yeah, I thought it was really impressive given how poorly they started last year to be competitive down the stretch. They were creative. They were calling trick plays on, you know, fake field goals. They were doing on side kicks. They were going for it on fourth down. So I don't think that would be a bad spot. Uh, you know, Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps the seat warm a little bit. He's one of the most entertaining quarterbacks, I think, in the end, like, like I always liked when Ryan Fitzpatrick came on red. zone last year. That was fun. Anything could really happen. I also like that Ryan Fitzpatrick is competent enough to where if the quarterback is bad, he can beat them out. Does that make sense?

Yeah. Like he's a good baseline where if the dolphins actually got a guy this year, I mean, Josh Rosen's a great example. We found out pretty quickly who Josh, what Josh Rosen was as a prospect when Ryan Fitz just came and took his job. And I thought that was interesting. And I kind of like having that sort of of competence. Yeah, I think that's true. And then I guess if we're talking about trade-ups, the other two teams that I guess would be interesting, the Chargers at number six, you know, I was just doing a thing where I was trying to match free agents with, you know, their new teams.

And I was looking at the Chargers defensive depth chart is pretty impressive. I mean, they are really talented where if I felt like if they got a quarterback like two or somebody else in the next two years, they could be pretty competitive. Now, that's a situation where if they go into it with Tyrod Taylor and then it's Tua, it might be the opposite of what you're saying. They might say, all right, Taylor is not good enough to hold him off and you kind of rush him in there. I don't know. And then behind them, the Panthers. I think the Panthers certainly could be interesting.

If they move on from Cam Newton, they obviously are taking the long view here. So you would think, given that, that they wouldn't rush him in there. They would make sure he was healthy. They would be really focused on developing him. But I think those are probably three of the teams there. in the first round that would be maybe pretty good spots for him. Yes. I think that the cam thing is interesting.

I think the quarterback movement thing in general was interesting. I feel like James is destined to be throwing interceptions in front of 28,000 people in Los Angeles. You know what? I can't find a home for him. Really? We did a slow news day. We did a slow news day this week. And Bill Simmons thought floated the idea that that would be the Belichick if Brady left.

Belichick's final. act would be to turn James into an efficient, accurate passer who doesn't turn the ball over? It is almost like you need a offensive coach who, you know, thinks they're God and there are a lot of them in the NFL to say, hey, you know, Bruce Ariens couldn't fix it. These other guys couldn't fix it. We can fix him. Come on over. But I'm really having a hard time. Like, would the, the Chargers really want to take that on, a 30 interception quarterback? Like I was thinking maybe the, a team like the Steelers, you know, if you bring him in as a backup and you say, we're going to be in a much better spot.

If Ben Rothelsberger goes down than we were last year, but then like the thought of Mike Tomlin having to add a quarterback who threw 30, like his head might explode. So I don't know. I kind of feel like James Winston might be left without a seat and might be settling for kind of the Teddy Bridgewater treatment of last year where he just goes somewhere, rebuild his value, and, you know, maybe plays if there's an injury and then re-enters the market the following year.

I could be wrong. The Chargers could be an option. I like the Cam Mutant for the Chargers, but I don't know. It doesn't seem like there's a lot of momentum behind that, but maybe that'll change. All right. Let's go through. I think one of the things you are best at, and you're really good at a lot of things. I'm not trying to suck up to you.

I think you're, you know, I think you're one of the best. You're really good at understanding what's going on in the field and what's going to happen on the field. And I wanted to talk to you about some of the scheme stuff that we've been seeing because it seems to me that, I mean, not seems to me. we both know this to be true that the NFL is a much more innovative place than it was five years ago, certainly 10 years ago, and that I think Andy Reid had a lot to do with it. I think quite frankly, Chip Kelly had a lot to do with it. Josh McDaniels has done some really cool stuff.

Is there something you see, whether it's the college game, the high school game, whatever, or even at the NFL level, where you say, all right, we're not talking about this scheme or we're not talking about this play, we're not talking about this past, but we're going to be talking about it in 2020 or 2021. one. You know, I actually look at the defensive side of the ball. And I think one of the things, and it's already started to happen, but, you know, there were those great Seahawks teams. And Pete Carroll's philosophy was basically line up, you know, people, people know this. You've read about it, but line up, rush four, play cover three. We're going to play zone. We don't need to be really,

you know, really complex and have a lot of different looks. We're just going to do what we do. We know every route combination we're going to get. We're going to get really slow. smart at it, and that's how we're going to shut you down. And that worked great. They had great players. Not everyone was doing that. But since that time, I feel like that scheme has just spread throughout the NFL. You know, Gus Bradley went to Jacksonville. Dan Quinn went to Atlanta. Chris Richard went to the Cowboys. Even Robert Sala coach with the Seahawks and now is with the 49ers. It was like a quarter of the league at least had this sort of similar philosophy. And the sense I got just in the last couple of years, you know, hearing from offensive people is that

just like, that doesn't work really well anymore. Like, they know how to attack those zones. It's a lot easier week of prep. They're not as stressed out when they're preparing for those games. And I don't think those schemes work nearly as well anymore just because offenses have gotten so many reps at them. So I feel like a big thing with defenses this year is going to be disguised. And I think you saw a little bit of it last year.

You've seen it with different teams. Certainly the Titans really built their defense around it. But, you know, really trying to confuse the quarterback. having a safety down in the box and then drop back and all of a sudden you're playing two deep safeties. I mean, that's obviously just one very sort of elementary example, but those types of things where you're kind of taking control and saying we're going to disguise before the snap, you're not going to know what's coming, you're not going to have a good read before the ball snapped, and we're going to confuse you that way. It feels like that's the trend for defenses going forward.

Yeah, and I remember when Jed Fish was on the ram staff, he was talking about how, some of the things that the Rams did under McVay and obviously by extension, all of the other kind of Mike Shanahan style offenses, that they were uniquely designed to have success against that kind of Pete defense. And just in the sense that all defenses essentially became the same, not that the Rams had unique success against Pete Carroll. They didn't. But more that there were certain plays when once that defense starts proliferating, that

you have to design because you know that six, seven, eight, nine, ten defense around the league are going to have that. And so you kind of understand that if you're going to prepare for one defense, you prepare for that defense. And I think that that's one thing we don't think about enough when a lot of these coaches get hired is how much of an effect it has on a little, you know, a bunch of little different things when a bunch of guys are running the same thing. And I think on offense, it also has something to do with personnel because if 10 people are running the McVeigh offense, well, that means there are 10 teams looking at the same type of players. And I would say that that's true with that Pete Carroll-style defense. So I mean,

how many guys around the league, you've probably seen this in your time in Seattle, how many teams around the league try to get kind of old Seahawks defensive linemen? Remember when every team in the league was just signing old Seahawks defensive lineman because they were trying to run that system? Chris Clemens was in Jacksonville. O'Brien Schofield was in Atlanta. I mean, It was just like if you played for the Seahawks, you had jobs of plenty because you, you kind of fit that system that was proliferating around football. Yeah, no, it's so true. And it goes back to what we were talking about with free agency where teams realize it's a risk. And so if you can see a guy, okay, he's played in the same scheme under the same rules that we're trying to implement here that helps your projection. So it's not crazy, but you're right. That did happen. I think it's not dissimilar to what's going to happen or what is happening on offense with sort of the Shanahan. stuff, you know, it's like the Eagles hired Rich Skangarello from the Broncos. And like, it seems to me that part of it is they said, all right, well, he's coached under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta and San Francisco. We like all the pre-snap motion stuff.

We like a lot of the bootlegs and those types of things where you move the pocket. Like, I don't know if Rich Skangarillo is a good coach or not. He may be. He may not be, but it is. I feel like it's helping, you know, we, everyone made the joke with McVeigh. like, all right, this person sort of drove McVeigh to the airport one time. Let's bring him in. That knowledge had to have rubbed off. It's a joke, but it's kind of not a joke. Like, I feel like you're seeing it with, you know, with Shanahan now because he was the guy last year and some of these other coaches that people say, all right, if we can get some of that knowledge that he had, we want to implement some of that stuff. We're going to do that. So I do think the pre-snap motion stuff offensively is probably a trend to kind of keep an eye on even more this year. All right, Sheel, is there anything I didn't ask that you want to talk about?

You know, I feel like there was one guy I wanted to throw under the bus a little bit who I didn't. Yes, yes. I don't want to let you down. This is content. Yeah, I don't want to message you in like an hour and be like, I forgot this guy. You are the bus driver. Okay. That is my nickname for you.

You are the bus driver, Shil Kapit. Give me one more. I think Blake Martinez is probably not going to be a good signing. The Packers, middle linebacker, racked up unbelievable numbers. Like, if you just look at his tackle numbers, I mean, he's up there with anybody. But if you, you know, the people who really watch the Packers closely and watch the film and know the team well, like every single person has been like, oh, yeah, I didn't know. He's nowhere close to those numbers.

Somebody's going to overpay for him. So, you know, I just wanted to make sure I didn't leave anybody out. I want to be all about inclusion. And I wanted to make sure Blake Martinez got with that group, got on the bus with Leonard Williams. Or I guess I'm driving the bus. Yeah, yeah. They're on the street. Yeah, okay.

Blake Martinez is a standing in. front of the bus. He's in position, but you're still going to run him over. Okay. That is, that is sort of Blake Martinez's MO. All right, Shiaa Kpatia, thank you so much for joining us. This is great. Thanks for having me. Okay, we're joined now by a man of many titles, former Green Bay Packers executive, current agent, head of the sports law center at Villanova, hosted sports business podcast, Andrew Brand, Andrew, what's going on, man? Hey, always good to be with you, Kevin. Good to be here today. Yeah. So obviously the CBA vote is this week.

And, you know, I think that one of the things about football and the NFL is that I don't think anything, any other professional sports changes as much. Just to structure the league, how teams are built from one CBA to the next than football. I mean, I don't think that NBA teams, you know, I think that the rookie, good example, the rookie contract stuff last year, last CBA in 2011, where Sam Bradford's making about seven. over the life of his deal in 2010, then a year later, Cam Newton gets $22 million over the life of his deal. I mean, the sport literally changed overnight,

how you build a team changed overnight, the value of the quarterback position changed overnight. I mean, it's ridiculous. Before we get to the nitty-gritty of how we think the vote's going to go and sort of the inner workings of that stuff, Andrew, when you look at this CBA, if it passes, what are some of the biggest things that are going to change

just from a competitive standpoint or, or is there going to be a C-Chance, right there was in 2011. Well, I think that's important to look historically. You bring it up, Kevin. You know, when you talk about any negotiation, and I've done them from the player side and the team side, it all is begatten, if that's a word, from the previous one. It is now, right? So you talk about the 2011 deal, and this comes out of that. So can you say, are there improvements from the 2011 deal? Of course. Certainly there are. 2011 deal came out of a 2006 deal where I remember being a the Packers and the league calls and they tell us all about this 2006 CBA negotiated by Commissioner

Taglibeau and Gene Upshaw. And I remember me and all these people on the call are like, so what do we get? You know, like, what's in it for us, the teams? And the cap spiked in 2006 and seven and eight. And the owners in that deal, as I've talked about, had an opt-out. So they could, as of 2008, say, you know, this deal's not going to go eight years. it's going to end after 2010. And that gave them extraordinary leverage where they went back to the NFLPA, now under new

leadership, and said, uh-uh, we're calling back. And I feel for Demore Smith because it was complete defense in 2010. I remember covering that for ESPN and watching every step of the way. And owners were intent on a reset. And you know what? They got it. So what was a 50-50 deal in rough terms really ended up before? 5347 deal. Now we're talking about the revenue split, where the owners clawed back three percentage

points that over 10 years worth billions of dollars. So here we are. And we get to the new deal, and we're working off that paradigm, 5347. So that was a change. And the big change that you talked about the rookie system. Owners were frankly, and they said this word to me, they were embarrassed by the San Bradford, by the Matt Stafford, by the Jamarcus Russell that are making, like you said, 70, 80 with incentives and escalators could be $110 million over players that have been there for years and years. So in covering that negotiation, that was the easiest issue. That was the easiest issue because what do you do?

Sell out the rookies. They're not here. So the owners, they're like, rookies make too much. The players, veterans negotiating the deal are like, rookies make too much. So that's the one that could get done very quickly. And as we know, that system has created, I think, a real imbalance in football that is central to this negotiation. I'm sorry, this vote. Because you talk about haves and have-nots.

We talk about minimum-s salary players. We talk about, I don't know this to be the exact number. It's the number of Sam Acho used in his. video, 65% of NFL players making minimum. Wow. So the haves and have-nots really come from a systemic look at football where players in rookie contracts cannot renegotiated for at least three years. And then everyone else in second and third contracts. And the former number is bigger than the latter number. Yeah, I mean, I think the haves and have-not part of it is really important. I want to go back to something you said about just the value of those huge draft picks 10, 12 years ago.

I remember covering my first job when I was in college. Actually, I was covering the 08 dolphins. And Bill Parcells had taken over. And essentially, they took one of the reasons they took Jake Long first overall is that he was ready to agree to a contract beforehand. And it was literally, that's what teams did back then. They didn't want to sit down with Matt Ryan and try to negotiate a quarterback deal. or I don't think Vernon Golston was even in consideration, but guys like their Chris Long would be another one, right?

Right. I mean, it literally changed the fabric of the game once those guys went from, okay, we got to get this guy under contract to, okay, the first overall pick, if he's a good quarterback, is literally one of the most valuable things in sports. I mean, Patrick Mahomes is making $5 million against the cap right now,

and he's, you know, he's one of the two best quarterbacks in football. It's ludicrous. The halves and have not thing. Let me just, can I just jump in on, on again, historically with the draft. Luckily in Green Bay, my 10 years there, we only had one year where we stunk the year before. And we had number five in the draft. And negotiating that pick compared to negotiating late 20s, we usually had like Aaron Rogers deal, was like, oh my God, I've never been to this neighborhood. Like, this is a much different negotiation. Now,

it was a good guy, a good agent, AJ Hawk, but a 33-page contract, and oh my God. I mean, those were the hardest deals to negotiate, more than Brett Farf's deal. I mean, those were deals like, oh, my God, there are escalators and super escalators and buybacks and voids and second bonuses and option bonuses. I'm like, oh, my God, no. And so that was the year exactly what you said, The Houston Texans were choosing between Reggie Bush and Mario Williams and Vince Young. And it was those three. And who could give him the best deal? And then, you know, we're hearing from Reggie Bush's agent.

He doesn't want to go to New Orleans. Can you trade? I mean, it was like a wild scene back then, which now it's like you can be a kicker. You can be a quarterback. You're getting the same deal. no negotiations and that's what you get and that was part of the negotiation for the CBA like this is the easy part i called it the rookie sacrifice yep i mean it's it's unbelievable how much it changed but you know the haves and the have nothing i think is so fascinating because players at the lower

end of of the sport have almost no leverage they get what's called sometimes get called split contracts which essentially if you get hurt you don't get paid per game bonuses which is something you and I have talked about in the past where essentially you don't get paid if you don't suit up, which is another way that even some really talented players get screwed in contract negotiations. And then at the top end, the franchise tag limits superstar pay. And so really, I mean, NFL players don't have a whole lot of leverage in any area, really. Is there anything in this deal, Andrew, where either the upper class, the middle class, or lower class are helped in any meaningful way, Whereas in five years, we're going to be talking about this deal the same way we talked about

the last deal, just as far as just a lack of leverage for players in contract negotiations. Yeah, I mean, I've tried to point out some of the parts about the deal in my writings and interviews. I just think that we can talk about the big give, the 17th game. I know we'll get to that. But I just think that when you look at this deal, the best people are saying about it is it's pretty good. You know, it kind of addresses some things.

And obviously the increases on the minimums, obviously some help on the pension, tuition assistance, injury protection, even less practice time and padded practices. And then, of course, the revenue split, which we'll talk about that goes up very slowly incrementally. But yeah, I don't think the leverage points are going to change. What we have in sport in the sport right now is you have this window for the second deal, which can start after your third year. and then, you know, maybe you get that huge deal at age 25, 26, and by the next deal, you know, usually you're almost replaced by a younger player. So it's that sort of sweet spot is limited, and here's how teams use it. They really go to these players after three years who are making, what, $2 million max? You talked about Mahomes.

So the chiefs can go to Mahomes this year and say, okay, you're going to make $4, $5 million? Or are you going to make $35, $40 million? But, you know, we like the deal for the rest of the six, seven years that we're going to give you. That's extraordinary leverage for the Chiefs, because they get the best player in the league under contract for a long time. And in Mahomes' defense, what's he going to say? I'd rather play for $5 million than $40 million this year. So it gives them extraordinary advantage, this rookie system, that I don't think everyone may necessarily thought through when they said, let's just take money away from the rookies and give it to the veterans because it really creates

a negotiating advantage for the teams. And this is not just me talking. Teams tell me this all the time where they can go to a player in a fourth year, offer enough money to get them to jump, and then get the terms they want for the rest of the deal. Yeah, it's fascinating. All right. So we'll get to the 17th game because it's amazing to me in doing the research. You know, the NFL tried to go to 18 games, really in the 2006, CBA, that was first discussed. And they haven't expanded this schedule since 1978. They've tried it a couple of times. They've tried a couple of years ago to expand the playoffs. They at least talked about it. And obviously that looks like it's going to happen this year. Andrew, if you were negotiating this deal, if you were D. Marie Smith and you're adding that game,

let's say hypothetically the players were on board. What do you ask for in return? And what do you think of the return the players are currently getting for that extra game? it's been what i thought was kevin a mantra since 2008 that no way no how no way in god's green earth will we play more than 16 games right and i've heard that and what i thought was a non-negotiable for the players became somehow some way a non-negotiable for the owners and i don't know how that happened and that's kind of what i keep asking and i know obviously players are at asking this too, how to go from 17 games non-negotiable players to non-negotiable owners. But be that as it may, when we get to 17 games non-negotiable, it's like, okay, we, the players,

we also get a non-negotiable. Why not? And why not these little incremental gains for these other areas I talked about earlier? Why not instead of that saying, all right, owners, we give in 50-50, like it was prior to the last deal. Now, I don't know if that was said, and I don't know if that was negotiated, and the owners just said, no, sorry, we're at 47-5 to 48 to 48-5, and then it's over. And I'm like, okay, oh, here's another non-negotiable. All right, owners, and if you get the 17 games, let's do a four-year deal and see where we are after that.

No, 11-year deal. So to me, those are huge items for this extraordinary give of this 17th game, which, again, I get it. Business rules, owners need it, has to happen, TV deals, et cetera. But that seems like something you should get a lot of concession for, and I don't know if they did. Yeah, I mean, that is the strangest part of it, is it just seemed like it kind of happened overnight. I mean, is there, I guess 50-50 would make sense. I mean, I think that, you know, one of the things about this deal and in talking to, you know, a couple of years ago, I did a thing just on just talking to different NFL stars and what they would change about the league.

And one of the things that when I look at this deal, I don't see is essentially all of those stars said they needed to rework how NFL contracts work. And that starts with eliminating the franchise tag. And then you get into some of the more abstract things, like maybe you tie in a percentage of the cap to your salary, something like that, things that we haven't seen before. And we just haven't seen a guy who wanted to bet on himself, had that leverage and wanted to change the structure like that.

But on the other hand, teams just won't even entertain that. Do you think that if teams, if players went to the league and said we want to change, you know, get rid of the franchise tag or get more guarantees and deal, stuff like that, Do you think that they would even entertain that or is there just way too much leverage from the owners?

It just seems like the latter because you mentioned the franchise tag and it was not addressed and it's the exact same going forward. And the question is why. And I don't know if there's been a direct statement on this, but you kind of hear in the grapevine, well, only 10 players a year. My point is, no way. I mean, do you know how many players this affects? How many players negotiated contracts with the specter of a tag? after their free agency. You can control a first round pick for eight years, essentially.

Yeah, I mean, Russell Wilson did a deal a year ago. Russell Wilson was 16 games away from free agency. Russell Wilson would have been that player that would force a full guarantee, that would force a massive increase, it would force something that maybe no player ever did. But Russell Wilson looked at it and said, you know what, I'm not going to be a free agent. I'm going to be a tag player.

And Dak Prescott this year. It's like, no. How do you get to that point? Everyone asks me, the most questions I get about NFL contracts is simply this one. Why aren't they guaranteed? And how they come guaranteed as a twofold process versus the individual players with extreme leverage forcing the issue. Kirk Cousins did, albeit only three years, but he did. He had extraordinary leverage. The other is collective. If the restraints, the systematic restraints weren't there. Yes, we would have guaranteed conducts. Can you imagine NBA teams with a franchise tag? I mean, it's just these restraints, and again, I just continue to point out, it's not just 10 players a year for the franchise tag, and it sets the ceiling. So everything under that is going to be depressed compared to the top players in the league. So we'll see some franchise tags this week. There's probably 10 fold players negotiating contracts that gave in, if you will, in light of the specter of the tag

later. I will say that those people in Milwaukee were bucks fans who probably wish there was a franchise tag in the NBA. And Cleveland and all the way around. Orlando for Dwight Howard. Yeah. No, we've got some. That would definitely change the sport.

All right. Best guess, Andrew, minimums go up. We've seen the deal. It seems to help some of the little bit, some of the lower classes. so that there's some argument whether or not the minimums will grow with the cap. Does the CBA pass this weekend, Andrew? I'm going to hold off the answer. Let me just say that. I will answer that.

I think what I just described, like a Mahomes potential negotiation, that's strategic by teams and is strategic by the league. They've offered early money to 65% of the NFL. So a strategic negotiating deal, you sign up, you get your early money, we got you 11 years, we can go to the networks, say we got labor peace and a long-term deal. That brings me to the fear element that somehow, some way it's been expressed out there, that if they turn down this deal, there's going to be Armageddon, there's going to be strikes and lockouts, they'll get a worse deal. The owners will rub their nose in it like a dog who pooped

on your carpet. And I'm like, really? Because the owners need two things to get these TV deals. They need 17 games and they need labor peace. And who holds the key to both? That, of course, are the players. So having said that, I think the players have more leverage than maybe they're even realizing. But now we get to whether it will pass or not. I think there are more players than we know that have concerns about this deal. But if you put a gun to my head, it would probably pass because of the way it's being directed toward the masses. Having said that, I think it's unfair, and I just want to get this in, this sort of pitting that's being done, and maybe it's strategic between stars and rank and file.

I mean, if Aaron Rogers, JJ Watt, Russell Wilson, et cetera, you know, really didn't care about the masses, they'd say, yeah, take the deal, we don't care, we're fine. But they do care. I mean, they're like, you shouldn't take this deal. Because, listen, those guys will be fine, no matter what the CBA is. So I just think sometimes there's just sort of this dividing conquer mentality. Like, no, there are a lot of rank and file against this. There's a lot of stars voting for this.

Sometimes we tend to stereotype players too much. Andrew Brand, thank you for joining us. Okay, thank you to Sheel and Andrew for joining us. We'll be back next week to put. Put everything that happened in a perspective. I'm sure there will be a lot to talk about. So we see you next week. This has been the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network.