The Ringer NFL Show - Gambling on the NFL and Injury Impacts | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 264)

Episode Date: May 15, 2018

The Ringer's Kevin Clark connects with Danny Kelly to discuss how the legalization of gambling could change the way fans watch the NFL (02:15). Then they take a look at the recovery situations for Carson Wentz (21:00), Andrew Luck (25:00), and Houston Texans Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt (34:30) before giving one big offseason prediction each (38:30). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Ringer NFL show, we're chatting about the biggest news and years of some people, legalized gambling, and we'll preview the offseason as we are officially in the dog days of the NFL calendar. But as always, we're brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. There are a ton of great shows for you. The Ringer NBA show is going to be incredible, basically for the next month. We have conference final breakdowns. The lottery is Tuesday. You'll get all the analysis you need from greats like Kevin O'Connor. We also have coming June 11th, binge mode Harry Potter.

If you think you've heard Mallory Rubin get excited about anything before, I guarantee you never heard anything like binge mode Harry Potter. Also, go to the ringer.com to check out Brian Curtis on the media's role in gambling's legalization and normalization. And we also have Kevin O'Connor on the conference finals. Just an incredible time for the ringer.com. Full of great stuff. Go there right now. All right.

With that, let's get to the show. Welcome to the NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark with Danny Kelly on the other line. Danny. Yeah. What's happening, man? Danny, you're in Seattle. Yeah, I'm back.

You were in California last week. Did the tourist thing. I came down to work for the meetings in L.A. And then I went up to San Francisco and kind of checked out the sites I'd never been there before. So that was cool. You'd never been to San Francisco despite living in Seattle. Was this like a hardline 49ers thing? Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. I just couldn't bear to go there. No, it's just, I've been to the airport, but I don't know. I'd never done the tourist thing around there, so drove around, went and saw the sites. It was really cool. Wow. Okay.

All right. So let's get to the big news. And, you know, you and I spoke on Sunday, and we knew what we were going to talk about, but it wasn't exactly the most thrilling stuff in the world. This is as dead a period on the NFL calendar is going to get rookie minicamp. I understand the fascination is the wrong word for it, but I understand the interest in it. These guys don't even really have pads on and you can't glean anything from it.

And the idea that there's phenoms breaking out in rookie minicamp is a little bit misguided. We'll get to that in a little bit. But Danny, gambling. Oh, gambling on a statewide level has been, it's not going to be immediately approved because obviously there's only a handful of states to have passed legalized gambling bills,

New Jersey being on the forefront of it. A couple other states, Mississippi, a couple other states in the North East aside from New Jersey have gotten there. But the Supreme Court has given the okay for that. I don't think it's a overstatement to say sports are going to change forever. Danny, when you think about gambling and football and the fact that there are going to be many states where you're going to be able to gamble legally, how do you think, first of all,

big picture, this changes everything? Well, I mean, it changes the whole sport in a lot of ways. I mean, it kind of feels like, I think I saw someone writing about this today. It feels a little bit about like what fantasy football did for football in terms of just changes the way that people watch the game. It's going to change the way that people are interested in individual plays and individual players. Obviously, when there's money attached, when you got some skin in the game, it takes a what would normally be like a boring matchup and turns it into something really interesting that you're, you know, rooting for and you have, you know, a rooting interest for. So I think that is kind of what it reminds me of a little bit. Just like the way that the game changed the way that's, I mean, that's really fantasy football is how I got so hardcore into the NFL, honestly, and back in the day.

And I think it could sort of change the way people watch the game. So it's interesting you say that because when I talk to people in the gambling industry, one of the things they talk about a lot is Thursday night football. Yeah. And the fact that we all look at Thursday night football and we watch it and it's Titans versus Jaguars or Browns first bang. and we're all like, what the hell is this? Meanwhile, there is a ton of money dropped on that ticker game because it's a primetime game because it's the only game in midweek, essentially, and people love gambling on football. I think you're going to see even more engagement with stuff like that.

I think that, you know, they've tried to roll back the 9 a.m. windows on Sunday. I think you might see more windows because of it. I think there's, I mean, there are a ton of unintended consequences. I thought, you know, Mark Cuban was on CNBC Tuesday morning, and he was saying, first of all, for the three major sports, he expects franchise values to double. He had the quip, the accurate quip that the baseball might be fun again. I wouldn't go that far, though. I wouldn't, I wouldn't, let's not go crazy here. You're going to get some hate mail, buddy.

From who? Baseball fans? Are there any? Yes, there are. Now you're going to get hate mail. Oh, wow. Okay, so we need Maze here. Maze is the big baseball guy.

on the NFL podcast. He literally was like watching the Cubs on his computer He's not here right now because he's in the Wrigley bleachers. That's not true. That's not true. But it might be true. Okay, so here's the interesting thing. So the New York Post had a really good rundown.

And there's a million rundowns that are all really fascinating about what's going to happen next. And the most interesting thing I saw was in the New York Post where they talked about where the leagues could get in on the action. So the leagues want to, the MLB. be an NBA one of one percent integrity fee, which is going to be... The funniest term ever? The integrity fee. So, first of all, the idea that they need one percent of all of gambling revenue from

the sports books to police things, have leaks shown a track record of being able to police things? That's a shitload of money, too. That's an insane amount of money. So the American Gaming Association was talking about earlier, and they were saying essentially that a 1% fee. is a 20% tax because books only keep about 5%. So it's taking 20% of the profits,

and that's just not going to happen. So I would not anticipate that, especially at that number, and maybe not anything. I think that's going to be a very complicated process going forward. Now, where can the leagues get in on this? Well, the answer is their proprietary data. And that was what some of the experts have been talking about.

So the example the post used was how many steps LeBron James takes in a game. Well, player tracking data, which is essentially proprietary to the league, they've got that. And they can sell that. They can sell that to whichever bookmaker wants to make a deal with the individual leagues. What I think is fascinating is you have all these next-gen stats. You have all these new measurements. You're going to have zebra GPS all over the field, especially starting this year. you can, leaving aside the obvious bets, who's going to win the game, the money line, the props, you know, over under three touchdowns for Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers, you're going to be able to bet on over, under, does Antonio Brown run faster than 19 miles per hour on a given play?

I think that I think that not only is legalization of gambling going to change how we view sports, it's also coinciding with sort of a data revolution. in sports that's going to expand even what we bet on. Because, I mean, you've got to remember in England where betting has been legal for years and is phenomenal, by the way, and they bet on first, who has the first throw in in a soccer game? Because they can bet on everything. It's an insane amount of stuff. Yeah. And I think that when you start expanding it and you start saying we have this information,

what can you do with it? I think the next-gen stats are going to be pretty interesting to gamble on. I think that, as the post said, LeBron James' total steps in a game will be fascinating. You know, second half of back-to-back sort of thing. You know, do you take the under? I just, I think that we're not even thinking about all the things that the next five to ten years are going to be able to be gamble on within the sports. I think that, you know, the NFL and gambling is a very interesting thing. The NFL basically came out today and said they won federal legislation, which is just not going to happen.

Now, Danny, before we get into the nitty gritty on that, you do not gamble on football, nor do I. Right. You don't? I gamble on other things. I just, I don't think it's professional in my, you know, I have to deal with NFL players and NFL coaches and NFL GMs all the time. I just don't think it's professional to bet on football ever. Now, for you, when you look at the fact that in Washington, they might start legalized gambling in a couple of years, Do you have any interest in picking up a gambling, B football gambling?

I think it makes it more likely that I will start doing it than many of my friends will start doing it. I don't actually know anyone that has like a bookie and goes like the illegal route or whatever. I'm going to stop you right there. You definitely do, Danny. Okay, well, I'm never talking because we know some of the same people. You definitely do. I'm talking about like people that live here.

But yeah, I mean, I'm sure I do. but I'm sure there are tons of people that do it, but it's not something that's sort of in the mainstream. Dude, all anybody cares about in Seattle is just acquiring more like Patagonia gear. That's extremely true. But yeah, in Southern California and in New York and in Florida

and all the places that I've lived, everyone has a bookie to bed on my college football. And everyone in Washington State just has a guy who's a hookup for hiking gear. Expensive hiking gear. like it's really close to home because I do have that. So yeah, I mean, it's not like, um, it's not like part of the mainstream. I feel like at least in my friend group that, that people have bookies and they, they really heavily bet like my friend group. When we go to

games, we all have, it's like the tradition to bring, you know, like a couple dozen ones and we all make these mini bets on things that happen throughout the game. Like, you know, it's the same deal as like who's going to make the next throwing and soccer. It's going to be like, who's next target you know everybody puts in a dollar and in blah blah and I think on a bigger scale legalizing gambling is going to make that kind of stuff like the live in game betting a lot bigger you know and it's like because there's commercial breaks and quarters and half times and you can do all this stuff as the game is happening and I think that is an area where this this legalized gambling and being able to do it like on your phone live as the game's going on I think it's

going to be huge. It's kind of like, I don't know, it's a sea change in how people could watch the game. Sure. And it's like for everyone who I, you know, obviously for sports writers probably it does feel like sports gambling is mainstream. But I think that it isn't completely mainstream yet. I think it's, I don't know, it's just, it's borderline. And I think it's going to sort of enter the mainstream world of watching sports.

Yeah. So what sports people are going to bet on is the thing to watch? because I've done a lot of research on football gambling and how the trends are going. And what's interesting to me is if you look at the total handle in Nevada books, and those are all public, it's pretty well regulated with the casinos and the sports books in America. And if you look at the amount of money dropped on the NFL, it's fairly stagnant. It's fairly flat over a six-year period. five or six years. And I think that's interesting. What's not flat is baseball. What's not flat is

basketball, other sports, soccer, there's more money being bet on that. And the reason that's happening from people I've spoken with, it's the mobile betting and it's a huge percentage of Nevada. So essentially in Nevada, if you register with a casino, you can bet within Nevada state lines anytime you want. And the reason that those sports, are getting more and more popular is because with mobile betting, as far as betting goes, because with mobile betting,

you can wake up on a Tuesday and say, I want to place a bet. And there's no NFL on those days. So what do you do? You bet on Raptors versus bucks. You bet on Reds versus Brewers. Those are two baseball teams, right? Yeah.

That's correct. Padres Mariners, which seems like a matchup that would happen. They do interleague play all the time now, right? Isn't that right? Can I get a fact check on that, Jim? No. I can't get a fact check or they don't do any league play all the time?

No fact checks. Okay, thank you. Thank you, Jim. And so, you know, and so I think the way different sports develop because of this change would fascinating to watch. I agree with basically everybody that ratings will go up for the NFL, but I think it will go up even more for other sports. I want a question for you along those lines.

is, you know, because right now we've talked about oversaturation the NFL, it's hurting the NFL. Do you think that there's any chance this gambling thing sort of ramps up the saturation of the sport in terms of how many games you're having per week? Sure, I think the trade-off will be enough for the NFL, which is they will not be, the ratings will stop going down. The ratings will stop going down.

I mean, the argument was they were down 20% over two years, year period and the reason was because they just had too many game windows. I think that's going to, that fall will end. And so you're not going to hear anything about the saturation just because the ratings will have an uptick. So will some people who, especially aren't gambling, tune out because there's just too much football? Yes, definitely. But I think generally the tradeoff and people who are really devoted to that Browns-Bangles game because they have 50 bucks on it, I think that is going to reverse some of the NFL's woes. You know, last year, and I did some research on this, but last year, you know, there were

weeks and months where college football had more gambling than the NFL, which hadn't happened in years, years and years. I think it may have happened in a couple of consecutive weeks in November last year. And again, there's a lot of reasons for that. But the NFL needs gambling a little bit, needs widespread gambling a little bit. more than many people think. And that's why I think it's so funny that the MLB and the NBA have been working with people asking for the integrity fee for a couple of years, whereas the NFL is still kind

of got its head in the sand. The PGA tour, I just saw a statement that they, you know, they're gung-ho about this. The UFC and MLS, they're gung-ho about this. So the vast majority of leagues understand why this is important. The NCAA obviously hates it because they hate anything that's a good idea. But you can say the same about the NFL, I think. Yeah. I mean, the NFL is a little more open to good ideas, but not by much.

Right. And so, yeah, so I just think that there are the unintended consequences that shake out from this are going to be fascinating. I think it will only help the NFL. But again, I think other sports will be helped more. Danny, what are you going to gamble on? Say, if you're not going to gamble on football, what are you going to get? Because I gamble on a lot of different sports, just not football. I'm well aware of the gambling trends in football just because I have to.

be and I study it all the time. I've done entire podcast about the gambling and efficiencies in the NFL. But are you just, are you going to become like a, I want to become a huge NASCAR fan. Tell me what I, yeah, what should I gamble on? I feel like there's probably a lot of sports that now people are just going to become

just total sharps at that, that I don't think about. Like, I want to become a NASCAR. I want to become a NASCAR sharp. Cornhole's good now. Cornhole. Thank you, Jim. Yeah. I've been seeing a lot of darts on TV lately.

that's an English thing. It's like the BBC America is showing all this darts. Yeah. It's pretty exciting stuff. I like, I bet I could be good at like Formula One gambling.

I think I'm, I'm gonna set out, I'm gonna set out, it's gonna be a bit for me. I'm gonna, I'm gonna figure out the sport. Yeah, no,

I mean, the Formula One is not that weird, but NASCAR would be a little weirder. I don't know. We'll figure this out. All right, anything else on gambling? I mean,

I just think you kind of touched on it at the beginning, but I think the analytics part of this is really interesting to me because number one like you said teams are going to be they're going to be motivated or the league in general is going to be motivated to either sell their information or license it or whatever but i think on the outside too as gambling becomes more mainstream and popular and um like a part of daily sports watching i think there's going to be outside companies too that probably ramp up their ability to analyze everything and you could

you know it could it could be good for companies like football outsiders or pfx or whoever, you know, because they're able to harness some of the, some of the trends and, and like the real strength and efficiencies of teams and things like that. And I think that is only going to grow as you see this sort of, you know, see change in the way that we watch sports. So I think that's really cool too. And, you know, could kind of bleed back onto teams, too. Like we're seeing free agents or, you know, front offices that are a little more willing to

go with analytics and all that. I think that could, you know, again, be sort of a way that. teams start to embrace it a little bit stronger. Yeah, I mean, look, the big data stuff is fascinating. It's only going to help people. I do a lot of that stuff with golf gambling, and I only lose, like, half of the money I have, every major

instead of all of it. Golf gambling, man. I love it. It's bad, dude. Not it. It's not bad. I'm bad. I'm bad at it. I've hit on one huge bet in my entire life, and it was a boxing bet, and it convinced me for, like, two years

that I was good, or a year that I was good at gambling. Do you think gambling is more luck or skill? Well, I mean, obviously there are people who are really good at it, but they still lose a lot of their bets. So it's a little bit of both. But there are people who are a hell of a lot smarter than I am. I don't know. Wait till I figure out NASCAR.

I just can't wait, man. Can you name a NASCAR driver? I'm probably, if I name one, he'd probably be retired. Jeff Gordon, is he still? He's still racing? He's gone. Yeah. Jimmy Johnson?

Jimmy Stewart? I think he's still around. Jimmy Stewart is a actor and it's a wonderful way. Jimmy Johnson is where I was trying to go. Or Tony Stewart. Tony Stewart, that's who that one was. Yeah, or Jimmy Stewart. I mean, it's fine.

There's probably a Jimmy Stewart, let's be honest. Who drives a car. There's probably a Jimmy Stewart who drives a car somewhere on this line. Somewhere in the rankings, yes. I just fact-checked Jimmy Johnson and he used to coach the Cowboys. Thank you, Jim. All right. The draft is over.

Mm-hmm. We've discussed the draft and everything else. We had rookie mini-camps. Do you know what that means, Danny? We're an OTA season, and it's the most boring part of the NFL calendar. I love that right now. 70% of the news that's coming out of anything is like rookies signing their contracts, which is the least newsworthy thing I can even imagine because of the, you know, the new CBA.

It's like literally doesn't matter. but I see all these reports like so-and-so sign their contract, I don't care, like that is the least important news item I've ever seen. Can I say the one genre of rookie media rookie minicamp media coverage I hate,

which is just this draft pick is vaguely aware of a famous player from the team who was drafted on? It's like, Roquan Smith understands the legacy of Dick Butkus. What? That was a headline I saw.

I was like, what? Okay. Like, why is you talking about this? It happens all the time. Just like any Steelers safety. He watched a YouTube video of Troy Palomalu. It's like, okay, man, that's cool. Every single is like every Dolphins quarterback.

It's just like, hey, what do you think about Dan Marino? Saw it on TV once. Oh, wow, we're going to write a thousand words about that. That is my one. I don't want to step on Brian Curtis's corner here, but that is a, a, pet peeve of mine. So here's what we're going to do. Because we're in the dog days of summer,

we're going to look at just the things we think matter these next couple of months. May, June, July. I'm going to be out of the country for like three of these weeks. I have timed it because it is the most boring time of the calendar. But there are things that matter over the offseason, over OTAs. Danny, what's your first one? Well, my first one is the Carson Wentz recovery situation. obviously. Is it possible we're not talking enough about that?

Yeah, I think so, honestly. This is the Super Bowl champion team, right? And it doesn't really seem like it's on a lot of people. Well, they won the Super Bowl without him. What's that? They won the Super Bowl without him. Well, yeah, but I mean, that's a, going a full season without your starter versus winning a couple of games in playoffs. Yes, of course. No, no, no, I understand that. I'm just saying that's part of the, there's probably not as much panic over him as there are about some of the other quarterbacks we're going to talk about in a second. I'm just rationalizing why there's less talk about it. than it should be. I mean, he was the MVP for until December 1st, basically. So he's one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL. You know, obviously it's the Super Bowl champion team.

And it really doesn't feel like we were talking about it all that much. I mean, it's kind of this assumption that he's going to be back and ready to go and full, you know, full speed ahead or whatever when week one hits. But I think there's some question whether that's the case. And so I think it to me is one of the biggest thing to monitor over the next few months is is how whence, you know, if he gets back on the field, how he starts throwing, and, you know, if he has any rust to knock off and all that stuff,

it's going to be important because, I mean, the Eagles have just a stacked roster, and they should be another Super Bowl favorite again this year, but I think the Wentz situation is a really big factor. So one report of the last couple of weeks, so that was interesting, Ian Rappaport from the NFL Network reported that he's worried, not worried, excuse me, he's focusing on keeping his mechanic sound,

and by all reports he has, because I think that, first of all, there's been two years worth of talk about Wents' his mechanics. And a lot of the tape gurus have been unfairly critical, as we now see, about some of the flaws in his delivery. And I guess the natural worry is that he would fall into some bad habits if he has, if he can't put pressure on some parts his leg

or all that. And I think it's extremely encouraging that if he comes back, that if the reports on his mechanics are correct, that those would still be sound. Because that would be the, really, as long as he can put weight on the leg, The only real hurdle to getting back to full strength would be that. Now, there's some mobility questions. I think that one of the biggest reasons that Carson Wentz was success, especially last year, was just the ability that he could move around the pocket.

He is an athlete. He's really good. And, you know, I think that one of the big things with an ACL, I've talked to guys before, aside from the physical part, the part, it's the mental part that you can't even, Yeah. You can't even imagine, and you can't even work on it until you're getting full speed reps. It's something I imagine that's probably been hurt a little bit by the new CBA and the fact that you can't just go out there and knock the crap out of each other is the fact that you're not going to know until you get into a game environment, how you're mentally going to react to it. I remember speaking with Ronnie Brown a couple years ago, and it was after his ACL.

It was 08, I guess, because his ACL was 07. and he was talking about how every time you're about to make the cut that caused the injury, you start to hesitate. And with Carson, it was a little different because he was basically pancake

between two defenders. So there's nothing really you can do about that. That was a weird injury. But on the other hand, it's possible he has a little bit of hesitation if he's just going to dive into the end zone or dive for the extra yard or whatever. I mean, I just, this is, again,

is not nothing against Carson Wentz. It's just some, I've talked to a lot of, players who have had that hesitation to where it might take a couple of preseason games. Maybe it takes the third preseason game for him to be comfortable making all the plays he was able to make because it's just, it's scary. It's just human nature. And so I think watching a guy like Wentz, this offseason is really important and all of training camp. I mean, I think he's the most important person in training camp except for maybe Deshaun Watson. I mean, even that. I mean, that, the only

reason I say Watson might be a little more important is because we just saw how good the Eagles can be without him, whereas the Texans without Sean Watson were an absolute tirefire and with him looked like the most exciting team in the league. But we'll get to that in a second. So here's my first summer watch.

Yeah. Andrew Locke. I know. This is a huge one. Yeah. So it's been something like 450 days since he lasts through a football or something. Yeah. I'm getting worried and angry again. I just, so Frank Reich said Andrew Luck is completely engaged.

Charlie Castler, the NFL Network reported he'll be full go for training camp, all that. Yeah, they're very confident he's going to be ready. When was the last time we didn't, we heard anything other than that? We heard that during the Pagano Griggs time. Last year. Yeah, last year, we were talking about this and it's like, oh, he's going to be fine. And then he just wasn't fine. Now, I will say, there's a luck thing.

The luck thing reminds me of what you're just saying about when. So sorry to interrupt you there. No, no, no, go ahead. This luck thing reminds me of what you're saying about once because, I mean, they're being so careful with him, which is the right thing to do, I think. Obviously, you don't want to push him back too fast. You have plenty of time to get him going. But it feels like they really have kid gloves on him right now.

And to me, that makes me worried about his state of mind, too. Like, how tentative is he going to be when he's out there playing? Is he going to be aggressive? Is he going to just, I don't know, it just makes me worried with the mental state of mind. It took this long to get back. Like, is he going to have the confidence and aggressiveness and, you know, that error about him that he had early in his career? Sure. Is that going to be completely absent now going forward?

That's what I'm worried about. It's interesting to me because there are a lot of things about Andrew Luck's game. You know, this is a guy who, when he came into the NFL, said he liked getting hit. Because he thinks that just sort of gets him into the game. You know, Will Brinson, last year, over a year ago, had a thing about just everything that the Colts have said about Andrew Luck's injury history since 2015. And it's just kind of ridiculous.

I know it's a different regime. It's a different GM. It's different than coaching staff. But I just get, I'm just, I am so hopeful that this is the year he turns it around, that I'm just so nervous for it. and I'm waiting to see the steps. And I'm rooting for him, maybe more than I'm rooting for any player in the league

to actually start training camp healthy because I think it would be great to have another young quarterback in the NFL healthy. I think that that changes the entire complexion of the AFC if he was 100% healthy and 100% full go. I just worry after, you know, what, two years off, essentially a year and a half off, that I mean, he played in 15 games in 2016,

but he was still banged up. that after all of that time off that it's going to take it's a little different than just a straight ACL I mean that's just the luck injury will be I know this is not a scientific term it will be rust the rust he'll have to shake off

and every little thing that I think that made him great will have to come back to him so even if he's back healthy it's going to take him a little bit so I'm intrigued to see the OTAs the mini camps then when he finally starts throwing in training camp It's for me

Going to Colt's training camp and seeing luck throw will be one of the most important things in my training camp tour this year Yeah, I mean when you think about the Absolute precision NFL quarterbacks need to have You know both timing and accuracy putting it exactly where the ball needs to be I mean that is huge and and luck was really really accurate really good Thrower I mean just a natural throw there's a reason he Was the second coming

Manning or whatever when he came out of college. And I mean, if it's even a very minimal decrease in accuracy or timing or whatever, like that could be huge. And so, yeah, it's definitely something to watch. I spoke two weeks ago about how Jacoby Brissette was the best

deep ball throw in the league and he tied with Cam Newton for most incomplete, accurate deep passes. I just can't wait for Andrew luck to just throw incredible dime passes that get dropped. I'm very excited for that. Yeah. Let's do the other thing. His landing spot's not ideal.

I mean, like they don't have much offensive talent right now, especially the receiver position. I mean, it's T.Y. Hilton and a bunch of guys. No. Yeah.

Yes. Well, they have Quentin Nelson now. That helps. That definitely helps. Did you see, their offensive line? Did you see Quentin Nelson

working after practice that went viral the other day? No. But I believe it. You're not going to believe it. He stayed after practice. Just grinding. Just. grind and offseason storylines.

I love it. The bar, the low bar to go viral in a rookie minicamp is incredible. Just like, he practiced outside and hit a goalpost with his shoulder. That was the practice. The NFL's going to find him now and

Doc a few draft picks because they pushed him too hard though probably. So the next thing that I'm really interested in watching, I think this is kind of a pretty common one is just the Raiders, the John Gruden Raiders, I think it's just going to be really interesting to kind of just follow along. Right now it just feels like it's going to be a debacle.

I mean, he's made a whole bunch of moves. He's gotten the team. It feels like he's made the team a whole lot older. He wants to take them back, you know, to 1998 or whatever he said. Obviously, you know, as you wrote about it, it's maybe just coach speak to throw people off. He didn't know if it was data or data, which I think, I actually think he got too much, too much heat for the data data thing. But what about his moves? What about his roster?

Oh, the roster. Oh, you mean the football? The important part. Well, so first of all, he did this thing where he said that like all of these coaches were calling him to congratulate him on a great draft. That right? Yeah. He said that. I'm not totally sure that happened.

Maybe they were just excited that he took the players that they didn't want. And so it allowed them to, you know, get the players they wanted. That's like why they're excited. Sure. So there's a couple things. I truly believe that John Gruden has done more research on how to win in the NFL than he's let on. Yeah, I know that he, you know, the analytics, the analytics guys have been marginalized in the building and all that stuff. But it's not like John Gruden wasn't staying current on the game.

I understand he said he wanted to go back to 1998. I think it will be a lot of old school tendencies. I think that there's a possibility this whole thing is a disaster. I just have to think that he is not, he is buying publicly. into this caveman stick, but I don't know how much it's going to be that. Now, let's broaden this. And it's something I've talked about before.

Tom Coughlin pretends he doesn't know how to work a cell phone. Nobody uses GPS more than Tom Coughlin. Bill Belichick has been awarded and accepted a award from Sloan, Sports Analytics Conference. He's talking about it at Sloan via video.

And during a press conference two years ago, he mockingly called it like the Northeast Analytics Conference, the Northeastern. He pretended it was Northeastern and not MIT.

Yeah. And we know that not to be true. He's sort of going out with the caveman stick, too. He likes the idea that he doesn't know. My Belichick

pretending to not know things is a great genre. Yeah, one time when, I believe when the Revolution got to the MLS Cup final, which had been three years ago,

three or four years ago, when they had Jermaine Jones and all that. They said, is there, you know, because the revolution practiced right next to the Patriots, sometimes in the same field, if they're not practicing on the same day. And they said, is there a, you know, connection between the two teams? And Belichick said, I don't really know the rules of soccer, which doesn't really make any sense. Right. He played lacrosse. And, I mean, all sports are sort of soccer adjacent. How do you not know the rules of soccer? There's like five rules.

I love the Belichick rope-a-dope thing, but like he pretends to be dumb. We just wanted to shut down the question. Yeah, but if there's a difference between pretending to be dumb and actually being dumb. Right. And where does where does Gruden land? That's it. That is the question. Yeah.

That is the question. The number one defining question of John Gruden in 2018 is, is he dumb? Is he pretending to be dumb or is he dumb? If you were to guess, Danny, where would you fall in that? Man, well, I'm leaning towards that he's dumb. But, I mean, that's what makes it so much fun is that, you know, he could just be kind of like duping us all. You know what's happening right now, Danny? What's that?

You know what's happening right now? What's that? You're in the front here. You're on record as saying John Gruden is dumb. You know what I'm doing while you're doing that? I'm sneaking out the back door and not answering the question. so that I can play both sides in September when they start the rain out. That's smart.

That's phenomenal. It's phenomenal. Okay, my second thing, I think it's the biggest X factor in the AFC right now, aside from whether or not Ben Rothesberger texts Mason Rudolph. It's Deshaun Watson and JJ Watts health. Yeah. Because Watt was basically out all of last year, Deshaun Watson appeared in what, six games and looked like a top 10 quarterback and then was promptly ripped away from the greater

football world. Those are two blue chip guys. Yeah, why was at one point probably the best player in the NFL? Yeah. Yeah. And if both those guys are healthy, you know, we did the exercise a couple of months ago. What would happen if everybody in the NFL were healthy? What would the playoffs look like?

Someone asked us that in the end in the, in the, in during the playoffs. and we loved exploring it, and I think the biggest takeaway at that point is, what if the damn Texans had Watt and Deshaun Watson? What happens in the AFC? Did the Jaguars win it? Still? How did the AFC South become the most interesting division in NFL?

That was a turn. Well, it just has so many variables. Right. What if Blake Gortals was good? Right. You know, like with that defense. What if Deshawn Watson and J.J. Watt were healthy? What if Marcus Mariotto,

would have had a coach who knew what to do with him. Maybe he does now. Yeah. Maybe he does now. I don't know the answer to that. I love the Titans this year too, man. They're going to be really exciting to watch just based on totally new offense and all that's going to be great.

What if Andrew Luck threw a football at some point? What if that happened? I mean, I think that's fascinating. And I think that the OTAs are going to spell that out. You know, JJ Watt had a, like, a charity golf thing last week that he was talking about. He says rehabs on schedule. Deshawn Watson, I'm less clear on. But if those guys are healthy and those guys can make OTAs, training camp,

mini camp, all that stuff, look out, man. That's a good team. Bill O'Brien said that Watson would be ready for training camp. Yeah, well, I mean, everybody's supposed to be ready for training camp. Let me ask you something because obviously Watson lit the NFL on fire last year. I mean, he was probably the most exciting player for a few weeks there. What is your bar for success for him going into next year? Because I think it's pretty clear, well, I mean, I would have.

assume it's pretty clear. He's not going to be able to do exactly what he did last year. His touchdown percentage last year was 9.3, which is unsustainable. I mean, like Matt Ryan, his Super Bowl art in his MVP season. Unstainable from mortals. Right. Well, that's what I'm saying. Is like, do you

think he can do that again? Because I was going to say, Matt Ryan, his MVP year, when he was extremely efficient, I think it was like 7% or something. Like, nine is insane. Yeah. What is your bar? It's not going to be that.

It's not going to be. But he also had that one Seahawks game that just completely tilted everything statistically. That game was awesome. And he did. I mean, it's not like he was. He was not flawless as far as turnovers go. No, no. I mean, I just think that I think he can be a really good quarterback.

I don't think he's going to come in and be a top five quarterback this year, but I could see him being top 10 in 2018. If he's fully healthy, if he has a full training camp and doesn't have to use September to knock off the rust, he could be a top 10 quarterback with that. doubt and then you have JJ Watt who could potentially be the best player in the NFL if he's healthy and that's a big if because he's had a lot of injuries you know you start getting into the back stuff and sometimes that just doesn't get better it all gets connected too what you're doing the knee bone connector the hip bone yeah that's what I'm doing yeah oh that was it that was what

you're doing would you like to keep going on those lights do you want me to sing it okay yeah yeah no no no I don't know I don't even know what it is I can never I don't even know what I'm not even going to try. I almost just try, but I'm not going to try. Please don't. Okay, now that we have that out of the way, we're going to do our big predictions for the off season. This is not the stuff we're watching.

This is the stuff we see coming down the line. Dan, if you were to predict anything, what would it be? Man, if I was going to predict anything. Do it. I think that Earl Thomas does not end up getting traded. Oh, wow. And I think if it was going to happen, it was going to happen during the draft.

I'll put that way, because I think that the C-Ox were certainly open. to it and they've kind of treated this situation a little bit like how they treated the the richard sherman situation last year they ended up keeping him and then we saw what happened there but i think they recognize that he's just too important to their defense right now they don't really have a replacement for him on their roster and so the fact that number one they didn't seem to get a ton of interest for him in terms of what they wanted to get you know i think they were asking a first round pick or something like that i don't see that kind of changing anytime unless there's a major injury or

something like that, but it just feels like the Earl Thomas trade train has ended, even though he is now, you know, hinting at a holdout. He didn't come to the voluntary workouts. Isn't that, doesn't he skip a lot of those workouts? To be honest with you, I don't think so. I think he's always kind of done him. I don't quote me on that because I'm not 100% sure. I think I remember around his contract time. He had skipped a couple. Yeah, it's possible. And to me honest like Earl he's kind of guy who sort of like you know marches to the beat of his own drum he's very very emotional yeah he's very emotional he's very um you know just kind of off i don't know how to say it he's just kind of off he's he's just a funny interesting guy um but he's also uber

competitive and and you know so it's just one of those things i think he he really wants a new contract we'll see how that works out but i remember a couple years ago there's locker and he's talking midweek, which was, I think, kind of rare for him. And someone asked him a question about, I forget what it even was. And it had nothing to do with his worldview, but the way he answered it, he literally

said, I have a different worldview than anybody else. Yeah. And that's sort of what you need to remember about Earl Thomas. Yeah, he went up and said, come and get me to the Cowboys. I think that, I think it's possible the Cowboys get bored and just give a big offer for Earl Thomas. Yeah.

I think that's possible. I don't know. I mean, if they haven't by now though that's what I'm saying Stephen Jones said the Cowboys are looking for just the right fit at the safety position I don't know if that means they're just negotiating with the Seahawks or what I mean there are safeties out there the safety market is

ludicrously undervalued at this point and that's maybe one of the reasons Seahs can't command what are the Seahawks commanding at this point what they want or what do they want and what are they getting? I think they wanted I heard one report they wanted like two first round picks, which obviously wasn't going to happen.

Anytime now. I think that they probably could get a third, second or third form now. Probably a future second, I think would be kind of like the going rate. Because they still have to pay him top dollar. He's going into the last year of his contract. So the team that gets him has to pay him top dollar. And like you said, the safety market right now is really stagnant or going in the opposite direction.

It's kind of weird. So he's going to be want to, he's going to want to be paid more. than Eric Berry. And I think that's like the bar that you have to set. So any team that gets it is going to have to shell out big money. Yep. Okay. Here's my prediction.

Aaron Rogers deal gets done and it changes the way we think of salary structures. It's just a prediction. It, you had the Kirk Cousins deal over $80 million fully guaranteed. Then you have the Matt Ryan deal, which is over 30 years and over 30 years. Over 30 years. That's a long-term commitment. Jim, keep that in. I'm an idiot. Over $30 million in annual value money, not years. And that was a big jump. That was a huge jump. It's the first one of those. And the guaranteed money was massive. And I think you might see over 30 for Aaron and even more guaranteed. I think Aaron Rogers can hold that franchise hostage because he solves even more. so than, I mean, especially more so than Matt Ryan, Aaron Rogers solves all of their problems on offense. Yeah.

Aaron Rogers is really good. He's really freaking good. And he's the reason that Ted Thompson looks like a genius, you know, drafting wide receivers. He's the reason that their offense can only dip so low even with injuries when they pile up on offense, even with subpar talent in some situations. You have to have Aaron Rogers for that team to work. And so if he wants to, and he should, with that. the rising salary cap, there's a couple

of ways to go. Number one, he asked for the moon financially, okay, he can get it. What if he tries to change the paradigm of football and ask for a percentage of the salary cap? Because the salary cap's rising double digits every year. And here's the thing. Every single quarterback's

salary ends up looking like a bargain because of just the rising cap. And Aaron Rogers is a good example of that. When Aaron Rogers signed his contract a few years ago looks like he reset the market. all of a sudden, you know, you look at Ryan Tannahill's money and you're saying, oh, wow, that Rogers deal is like a bargain.

Are you saying like the contract would have a stipulation that he gets paid X amount of the salary cap each year? So we don't actually go into it knowing exactly how much he's going to make. Yeah, but you know, you sort of know the estimate going into it. Right. Yes. That'd be fascinating. That's what it is.

And it wouldn't put out the Packers in any way because the salary cap is rising. Mm-hmm. So if anybody's going to do it, it's Aaron Rogers, right? Yeah. Who else has that sort of leverage? No one. I mean, see, I was hoping that you were going to say that Aaron Rogers and the Packers have like an irreparable relationship at this point. And he just leaves.

That would have been. I guess. I mean, they can have him under contract for kind of a while. They can franchise him or whatever. They can franchise him into oblivion. Right. Now, I just think if Aaron Rogers really wanted, he was, he signed a first. five-year $110 million contract last time around,

which at the time seemed high, but is now ludicrously low. Right. Ludacrously low. He is going to be by Cap Hit in 2018, the 14th highest paid quarterback in the NFL. Holy crap. That's crazy.

He's behind. I don't think any player has more leverage than him at this point in their career, right? He's still a good age. What is he? Like, 34? Yeah. Alex Smith is making $2 million less. less than Aaron Rogers this year by Capit.

Jeez, that's crazy. Andy Dalton, who, as we know, is just talent-wise on the same plane as him, but there's some minor differences, is making... Good callback. Four million less.

He's making 16. Aaron's making 2.5. I just... Aaron Rogers, if he wants to reset the market forever, and I'm not talking about a little. little reset. I'm talking about

changing the finances of the sport. He can do it. And I think I think he should. Do you think it makes sense for the Packers to do it this year? What are they going to do? Yeah, I mean, as opposed to going the Kirk Cousins route and just franchise tagging him until they hate each other? I don't know the answer to that. Yeah. I don't know the answer to that.

I feel like a disgruntled Rogers isn't good for the team though. Also, he's, disgruntled Rogers, why would he stick around for that? I mean, I just, I, I mean, why he could threaten retirement, he could do it. He has, I don't mean why would he stick around. Obviously, the franchise tag, you have to play with that.

But he is, he's well-rounded enough where he could say, all right, I'm going to go start a Game of Thrones podcast. He's going to join me. I mean, he's that kind of personality, right? That's what I'm saying. Yeah, yeah. I'm saying that, you know, you have to pay the man because you want him to keep playing football. he's committed, he's in shape every year.

If you're not going to pay him, he's good every year. I mean, he had one minor blip basically in the second half of 2013. Yeah, he had like a half a season slump. Yeah, and that was it. He's good every other year. If you're not going to commit to Aaron Rogers, then you're not going to commit to anybody. That's the bottom line, really, yeah.

Yeah. All right. Anything else, Danny? No, that's good, man. All right. It's going to be a while. I'm not going to be back for a while. I'm getting married.

Is it public knowledge why you're leaving? Why I'm leaving for a month? For out of the country? Yeah. Yeah, I'm getting married. Okay, cool. Congratulations, by the way, for that. Thank you.

I didn't know if you're like not talking about it. Are we going to just re-legislate this in public now that are you congratulating me in front of everybody now? So now that it's public knowledge? When we actually talk after, I'm going to rescind my congrats. In private? Yes. Excellent. That's the only thing I wanted.

All right, Danny, thank you for joining us. It's the offseason. Enjoy the off season. Happy off season, buddy. Yeah, yeah. Okay, that's all we've got for today. As always, thanks for joining us. GM Street will be here next week. Thank you for listening to the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network.