The Ringer NFL Show - Hail Murray, What’s Wrong With the Bears, and the Patriots Make It Look Easy

Episode Date: November 18, 2020

Chris and Warren discuss Kyler Murray’s huge Hail Mary to DeAndre Hopkins for the win against the Buffalo Bills, as well as the continued underachieving for the Chicago Bears (5:00). Later, they discuss Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots' knack for coming prepared for bad weather games (18:00) and much more. Hosts: Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Ringer NFL show, Chris and I discuss Hail Murray, what the hell happened to the Chicago Bears, the Patriots making it look easy under bad weather conditions and more. Coming up next. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon. Join a Macy does every Wednesday is Warren Sharp. Hey, Warren.

What's up, Chris? So we've got a ton to get to from this last NFL weekend. What is ahead? Let's start with that miraculous ending in Arizona. It is one we will see for years and years, decades and decades from now. The Hale Murray, as everyone called it, as Kyler Murray, throws it up for grabs to D'Andre Hopkins in the end zone. And Arizona gets a huge win. Let's talk about both of those teams, which have very good records so far in the season.

But kind of where we are on both of those teams and from your perspective, what they have left, can Arizona really win the West in the NFC? And are they a playoff team either way, even if they don't? And on the other side, Buffalo and kind of where they stand within the context of the AFC. Yeah, I mean, look, Arizona is playing well. I think they're still a little bit above their head in terms of what we're getting out of them on a consistent basis. The reason I say that, and we'll see, I mean, they're going to play Thursday night against Seattle. But Arizona, when I look at them, they've played an easier schedule of opposing defenses and an easier schedule of opposing offenses.

I show them playing the 25th toughest schedule of opposing defenses. So like this offense, yes, it's operating as a top 12 offense and they actually been pretty efficient running the football. But I'm hoping to see them get a little bit more explosive. Obviously, that was a nice explosive pass that they generated to DHOP in the end zone. but we need to see a little bit more consistency from them from that perspective defensively. Look, I like some of the things I saw out of Van Joseph, but this is still a team that was given up massive points. They've given up over 30 points of last three games that they've played.

They were fortunate that they played the Jets and the Cowboys, but every other opponent they're giving up more or less 30 points of the last few games. So they gave up 31 to the Panthers as well, a couple games before they, they played the Seahawks and gave up 34 last go-round. So there's a team that they need some improvement defensively, but overall, if we're talking about sliding into the playoffs or potentially even winning that NFC West, I think this is obviously a team that's in contention.

On the other side of the ball, you got the Buffalo Bills over in the AFC, and I like what I'm seeing from those guys. It's been a pleasure watching. them call efficient games offensively, which has been absolutely required, as you know, to make up for their own defense, which has been very bad. And they've got a difficult schedule ahead. It's not going to be, it's a little bit more difficult for Buffalo than it will be for Arizona the rest of the way. But I obviously have expectations that they're going to be in the

playoffs as well. So I think these are two teams that we're going to be seeing in contention as week 17 concludes later on. Are the bills better than Miami? Better offensively, much worse defensively. The cool thing about Miami, what I love from them is how Brian Flores changes up their defensive game plan on a week-to-week basis. It is the same way that Buffalo changes up their offensive game plan on a week-to-week basis.

You do not know what you're going to get out of Buffalo's offense. You do not know what you're going to get out of Miami's defense. That is the sign of great coaching. and it's the other sides of the ball on both of those. It's Miami's offense and can they be efficient and productive? They've obviously been very fortunate with turnovers and short touchdowns off of those turnovers. I think they scored two touchdowns the last three weeks from the one-yard line, thanks to turnovers.

They've scored multiple non-offensive touchdowns that have helped them win some of their games recently. So that is something that I don't think we're going to be able to bank on in the future. Buffalo has not had the benefit of those plays from their defense. So at this point, man, I think it's neck and neck. Tua is going to improve. And we'll see these two teams play week 17. This is exactly what we want to see. We want to see these two teams going head-to-head, week 17, possibly with the division on the line.

I can't wait for that game. Yeah. And then, as we mentioned before we get away from Arizona, they're going to be in a dog fight, right? with Seattle and with the Rams. And according to Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy G's coming back this week. So they're not totally out of it. I mean, you know,

that's a team that was played in the Super Bowl last year. I know they've been ravaged by injury. But if San Francisco went on a run and piled up some wins, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever. It wouldn't, but I really think that they're fighting an uphill battle with their injury status and the rest of that division. I mean,

because if you look at, But if you look at San Francisco, I'm pulling up the rest of their schedule here to see how backloaded it is. The reason I guess I was a little persuaded is because I saw those numbers that they have, their record and their numbers, especially offensive numbers, when Garapolo's in there versus every other quarterback that they've had. And it is startling. Yeah, no, it is. And they will be going up against some difficult defenses three out of their next six games to close the season. after they're by. But they also have the Seahawks defense, which is terrible, and the Cowboys defense, which is terrible and the bills, which we discussed earlier. So I would never

write out Kyle Shanahan him because I love him as a coach. But if they don't have a healthy Jimmy G, they are fighting an uphill battle. All right. Let's move to Chicago, because that was the game that everybody was watching on Monday night. What in the hill happened to the Bears? a team that just a few weeks ago, we were here on the pod saying they had a tremendous spot historically to be a playoff team. And now, fast forward a few weeks later, it looks like they have no chance of being a playoff team. No, it doesn't. And here's the thing that frustrates me about the whole situation is that I've literally heard people talking about the fact that Matt Nagy gave up play calling and the fact that the Chicago Bears still were terrible. as a reason to absolve the Chicago Bears,

uh, head coach Matt Nagy from any blame for the offense over the first half of the season. And to say, hey, look, see, it wasn't the play calling. It's not Matt Nagy's fault here from a play calling perspective. It's the team. The team just stinks. The offense is terrible. There's no hope.

So I just, I just want to ask you this question, Chris, because I need to see if I'm insane here. I, I really need to like measure this up against you. I assume you like a good steak. You're not a vegan art. No. You got a vegan. Do I look like a vegan eat in you for it? No, I saw your tiger video.

You got a little bit too much testosterone for me to think that you are. So let me ask you this. What's your favorite steak place? You know what? Consistently I like Bruce Cruz. Okay. How do you like your steak? Cooked.

Medium. Medium. Okay. So Chris Vernon, has taken the lovely wife. to a night at Ruth's Chris. Chris Vernon goes into the steak house of Ruth's Chris. I want this medium. It's a special night for me.

I just got my next re-up contract at the Ringer. I just got a pod with Warren Sharp. I just got my pod with Warren Sharp. This is a night to celebrate. Give me it medium. The chef comes back. You cut into it. This thing is overcooked.

This is not good. send it back I want a different chef Chris says stand up I want a different chef to cook this next one because the first guy clearly doesn't know how to cook this one the different guy comes back you get the steak you cut into it

holy shit it's overcooked again. Now are you going to blame the fucking cow because the steak was over cooked or are you going to blame the two chefs is it possible that two different chefs could fucking overcook the same steak? Yes, it is.

Okay. Just because Bill Laser did not call good plays for the Chicago Bears does not mean that play calling is not an issue. I watched the Chicago Bears. I saw them before Bill Laser took over play calling for that one game, and I saw him during that game. And I'm looking at this team and I'm saying, okay, it's very simple. stop using 11 personnel.

You suck in 11 personnel on the season since Nick Foles took over. The team was averaging only 49% success in 5.5 yards per pass attempt with negative EPA and accepting a 40% pressure rate anytime they drop back in 11 personnel. They don't have three good wide receivers to try it out there and their O line stinks. But guess what? When they stuck 12 personnel out there, they recorded an 80% success rate passing, 5.5 yards per attempt went up to 10.9, a positive EPA, and a much lower pressure rate. And they hardly ever used 12 personnel to pass the football. Meanwhile, they have like 10 rostered tight ends on the team,

right? So why aren't you using more 12 personnel? That's what I wanted to see from this offense in this game. And what happens? They go out there and they use once again a million pass attempts from 11 personnel. They actually stuck out four wide receiver sets out on the football field. Do you know how many passes they threw out of 33 dropbacks that have fewer than three wide receivers on the field in the entire game? Three, three out of 33 dropbacks with less than three wide receivers out on the field. They were getting pressure. They were having zero success when they were passing the ball with three wide receivers or four wide receivers. It's very simple.

This team needs the help to get the ball out with 12 personnel and they weren't doing that. Number two, I can tell you how many times, and I'm not even going to the lowest hanging fruit, we'll get to that in a second. How many times this Chicago Bears team with Matt Nagy was throwing the ball with play action and targeting receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage? Logically, this makes zero sense. The purpose of play action is to suck up the linebackers to get everybody to freeze. If you're doing that, you need to throw the ball past the linebackers so that you can

throw into the vacated space to have the edges. You don't throw the ball short because the linebackers are already running towards a line of scrimmage. It makes it easier for them to tackle. And that is something that Matt Nagy did consistently is throw the ball short. And guess what happens in that game? If you go back and rewatch it, almost every single one of their play action attempts was thrown short behind the line of scrimmage. And when they were doing that, they had a 25% success rate in 2.3 yards per pass attempt. The few times that they actually use play action to throw beyond the line of scrimmage, 100% success rate, 9.8 yards per attempt.

but they were rarely doing that. And last but not least, just look at their run rate on second downs when they were constantly getting the ball in plus territory at the opponent's 45, 46 yard line starting drives due to a punt return or due to a turnover and a Vikings turnover. They had great field position and they were doing nothing with it and they kept running the ball on second downs. Now, you are telling me that you're going to absolve any Chicago Bears play calling

because two different guys took a shot at it and the team's offense still sucked? Absolutely not. This is 100% still on play calling. Well, maybe not 100. Close to 100% on play calling because I have not seen what this offense can do with good play calling being made. I have not seen good to play calling at all. So I can't say that it's still not play calling.

Two guys have tried it, both of them and sucked at it. Now, Nick Foles is not the savior. and I'm not here to suggest that the Chicago Bears' offense would be top five if they had a better play caller in there. All I can say is play calling is still a massive issue for the Chicago Bears. And until that's resolved, we are not going to see this team do anything this season. Because as good of a defense as you can have, if your offense continues to do zip, zilch, nothing, you are not going to be able to win games in 2020. Wow.

I'm going to tell you something, Warren. If you think for one second, the next Bears game, when it starts going the wrong way, that I don't send you hashtag blame the cow, you're out of your mind. We're blaming the cow. They got real weapons, too. Alan Robinson, Anthony Miller, I mean, they got players. What sense does it make to run the ball? You don't even, your number one running back, David Montgomery, they say he's like this

Frankenstein combination of all these different backs. And yet, when you compile it all together, you know what it is? It's like you're pouring in from this file, you're in a laboratory, you're adding all these things, and you put it together, and the fucking thing just explodes because that combination doesn't work, right? So even if he is a combination of all that different shit, like they said when he was coming out of the draft, he's terrible, but he's not even in there. You're using backups of backups as you're running backs. So why are you calling so many runs on second down?

Nothing they did on during that game on Monday night made any sense to me at all. offensively, except for the second drive of the game, where they had a nice, I think it was out a 12 or 21 personnel play action shot to Alan Robinson on first down, down the left sideline. Other than that and some other plays on that drive when they're using a lot of heavy personnel to pass, it was a catastrophe. Did you say the vial exploded? Come on, man, you are on fire today. You're not feeling the Bears, Warren.

I'm disappointed. What I hate more than anything is seeing stuff that seems pretty obvious. Like, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see some of this stuff and just say, what are you doing? Like, I just feel bad for the Bears fans. I feel bad for them watching this product. And I feel bad for them that now some of them that don't study football, maybe as much, are like, oh, wow, Matt Nagy's play calling wasn't the problem.

See, you know, that that's just, how do you come away with that perspective on this? And this team and this city deserves more than to see that. I don't like the decisions that Ryan Pace has made. This team is not set up for long-term success, but you are wasting a defense this season right now. You are just completely wasting a defense with the way that you're calling plays offensively. And again, I am not suggesting this is a Super Bowl caliber team

if you call better plays offensively. I am suggesting put the best product out on the field that you can and make the right decisions that you can and let's see what happens. It's a crazy year. A lot of stuff can happen. You were a five-and-one team. Let's just see where it goes

if you're actually calling plays efficiently. Today's Ringer NFL show brought to you by Fanduel. Add a little excitement to your sports watching experience by betting on all the action on Fandul's sportsbook this football season. There's a reason why Fanduel is America's number one sports book. Their app is simple to use. They've got great odds on all different betting markets, unique fun bet types like same game parlays and exclusive always on promotions to let you get

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First of all, I love Sam Aller. I love Texas. Kansas is as bad as it gets in the country. I think Texas is like a 29-point favorite. I think they're going to win like 56 to nothing. So I'm taking Texas on the Saturday game. And then on Sunday, as you will hear me talk about with Warren. Warren Sharp, I'm all over two a time.

It's all over him in Alabama. Now with the dolphins and they're not laying a lot of points against the Denver Broncos. The line, I think it's off right now. It's going to pop back up. But if it's anything less than a touchdown, I am all over the dolphins winning in Denver this weekend. Also, you can always play same game parlay.

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In Indiana, call 1-800-9 with it. In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, 1-800-gambler. In Tennessee, you can call the Tennessee Red Line at 1-800-9-9789, or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, let's get to a theme that was well-coached. That was the New England Patriots in the Sunday night game. It was an absolute monsoon. You got Jacoby Myers throwing 40-yard bomb dimes to Rex Burkhead in a driving rainstorm.

How did the Patriots make it look so easy on both sides of the ball against the Ravens? And do you think the Patriots saved their season and can figure some things out? Also, can we start worrying about Lamar? So multiple things here. Number one, the biggest takeaway for me is just a remote. reminder that you do not want to bet against Bill Belichick in weather conditions because there is no coach that prepares his team better for bad weather than Bill Belichick. They were out there practicing in the elements the day before that game. He takes the footballs when he knows it's going to be a

rain day and dunks and soaks them in water. Then he practices it. You know why? Because the football's arc and the distance that it gets thrown changes when it's waterlogged in a rainstorm. And he wants his DBs to be able to practice against footballs like that. He wants his receivers and his quarterbacks to be able to practice with footballs that are like that. He does everything possible to prepare his team better. And that is why Cam Newton after the game said, like, does this dude have like a Ouija board? Can he see the future?

he is doing some things here and making statements during the week that I've never seen before and they come true during the game. Like the way that this guy is able to predict what happens. And that's because he's well thought and well prepared and he's ready for anything. So it is absolutely amazing that other teams aren't doing more. You know, speaking of that, Warren, I heard last year when Gronk had his dalliance as a broadcaster, on one of them, I remember him talking about playing in conditions and playing in the snow. And he said, any teams you hear about, especially the Northeast teams, you go in, you have an inside facility.

You have an indoor facility. That was not used. They would go and practice. Like, you know, you see these crazy-ass snowstorms in the Northeast. They would go and practice in the crazy-ass snowstorm. I have players, and that's what he would say. The players don't love it. But it prepares you.

for what's to come. And it's not the first time. You've been out there in a snowstorm and you've tried to run these plays and you've tried to do what you're trying to do. And I was, I was very surprised by that because I was always under the impression if you've got a frigging blizzard going on. Yeah,

you take the practice indoors. We don't practice outside the day. We go indoors. He said no. Right. We still, I mean, it sounded horrible,

but obviously. And who would like going inside? Who would like going inside more? It's the coaching staff, right? Because they're just standing there anyways. They're not ones doing the practice, but the coaching stuff realized I'd rather put myself through hell for this, for a Thursday and a Friday practice and stand and endure these elements that don't necessarily need to because it's going to be what's best for the team. I want my players to be getting ready for these conditions. Now, if you're dealing with a blizzard, like my guess is, if you're dealing with blizzards on like Wednesday and Thursday, but come Sunday, it's supposed to be sunny and fine. Like he'll practice in the bubble. He wants to get his team ready for the conditions if that's what those conditions are going to be.

So I've just been very impressed throughout my tenure doing this at the way that he gets his team ready for these conditions and shocked that other teams aren't doing more of this. You don't have to have rain where you're practicing but to dunk footballs in water. I've actually seen, I was very impressed by something that the Carolina Panthers did where they stuck footballs in a freezer. before going up to Lambo field a couple of years ago because it was going to be a cold game up there and they were practicing to play in the cold. So you got to do everything that you possibly can to get your team ready for those elements.

And getting back to Baltimore, look, it's tough. I mean, did you see that final drive? The cameras couldn't even see the football field. Like Bill Belichick somehow Minichim has tweeted out that she thinks he's a witch. I definitely think he has some sort of control over the weather because every single time that this team, if you look back at what they did last season, you know, this defense looked so good and people were shocked at down the stretch how other

teams were able, other good offenses at the end of the season were able to take advantage of them. That's because every single good offense that they played during the middle of the season, most of those games were in New England and it was either super windy or rainy. The game that they played against DAC and the Dallas Cowboys, you remember that game. It was windy and rainy. And like neither offense could really do it. anything, there was a blocked punt, and it was just like the weather conditions have really helped

the New England Patriots defense over the last couple of seasons. And I'm not saying that the Baltimore Ravens would have won if it was perfect conditions, because Belichick did have a great game plan for attacking those guys' defense. In terms of Baltimore where they're headed, I mean, they just lost Boyle, who's one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL. You're already dealing with Ronnie Stanley, who's out for the season. You are already dealing with multiple other offensive linemen that were out this season. So this is a much different offense. Like every, every team changes a little bit, but this is a much different offense than it was last season. They don't, they no longer have this physicality at the point of attack where they can just

impose their will on their opponent with the same types of plays week in and week out and build these halftime leads, which is what they did last season. They, they were the team that had the largest margin at halftime of any other team. And so it was easy for them to coast down the road at the end of games because they were already up. And what got them the lead was dominating at the point of attack. And they were still going to be able to do that in the fourth quarter. I'd tell you this, Warren, I don't know the numbers on all of this, but I will tell you,

just from watching games throughout the weekend. When it's like, say, third and 11, okay, the first two plays haven't gone all that well. And Kyla Murray drops back or Russell Wilson drops back. I'm terrified of what's going to happen because they're either going to pass or they are going to take off and they're going to get that 11 yards with their feet. With Lamar, I only worry about him running. That is an opposing fan, you know what I'm saying? Or an opposing gambler. You watch those and it's like, bro, you got to be able to, it's not all going to go great.

And when it's third and 11, you got to be able to keep these chains moving sometimes. but I am always like he is such, I am petrified of him taking off running. But if he's dropping back, I feel like I'm bailed out. Seriously, I feel like, hey, punts coming next. Yeah, it is tough because, I mean,

if you look at this team, they're not really built to do that. We already talked about their offensive line and look at their wide receivers. I mean, you have Marquis Brown and who else besides that, Will he Sneed? Like, who is really getting down the field and beating you in one-on-one matchups?

Keith Brown asked for the ball. He said he wants to be the soldier to be put on the front lines. And he's on the front lines. And he's just falling into like opponents foxholes. Like he's, he's tripping over landmines. Like he's not getting open. He's not making the plays that he needs to out in the no man's land. I don't know.

Sorry, I'm throwing a few military terms out there. I watched a documentary on World War I the other day. So at any rate, I just think that this is an offense that doesn't have the same identity that it did last year, and they're going to have to figure out something and figure it out quick because what the game I am most looking forward to, they get a rematch with the Tennessee Titans. Okay, they got a rematch with the Titans this week, which knocked him out of the postseason last year. Tennessee's defense is worse than it was last year, but Mike Brable knows how to play this Baltimore Ravens offense. So I'm going to be fascinated to watch that matchup. That's going to be,

that to me, to me, is must-see TV. That's the best one. one o'clock game. But then, but then the week after that, they play Thursday, Thanksgiving night in Pittsburgh. Thursday, Thanksgiving night in Pittsburgh. These are the two games

that the Baltimore Ravens need are circling. They both come within a 10-day span, and they're absolutely incredible because after that, you've got the Dallas Cowboys, the Cleveland Browns, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New York Giants,

and the Cincinnati Bengals. Sorry to tell you this, but that, because you're a Cowboys fan. That's five wins right there for the Baltimore. But they could be, but they could easily be six and five. Needing those last five. You know what I'm saying?

No, they definitely could. But my point being is that those are five wins. These next two games coming up here in just the span of a few days, about one week from tomorrow, they'll play the Titans and the Steelers. And those two games are going to be absolute must-see TV. Hold on a second. I'm not going to settle for this disrespect. in here Andy Dalton's coming back, you must not have gotten, you must not have gotten the memo.

Horace Sharp. Hey, look, they played, they played, they played, stop chalking that up as a win. They played the Pittsburgh Steelers really tough. And you can't look over, over anybody in the NFL. I will just say that. The Pittsburgh Steelers this week cannot look past the Jacksonville Jaguars, okay? Say, how about that? Pittsburgh Steelers can't look past the Jaguars.

The Baltimore Ravens can't look past the Cowboys. But I'm just saying that they should be able to win those last five games if they play to their A game, which makes these two next games extremely important for the division. As you know, I've copped to being a Cowboys fan. I must tell you, and this is in the spirit of full disclosure, this past Sunday was the most enjoyable Sunday I've had in two months. Because I was not burdened with the bad mood. In fact, my wife, my son and I go to my father's house. I'd watch every game. I came back home.

It was around 2 o'clock. And my wife said, so the Cowboys play a 3 today? They're in a late game. And I was like, they don't play at all today. She goes, oh, my God. So I get happy Chris and happy William all day. And I said, you do. We're going to go watch two a time.

We're going to go have some fun. We're going to watch all six games. The Masters is over. It's great. because we all come, we both come home, totally pissed off every single Sunday. Every Sunday we walk in with our heads out. She's like, they lost again. Again, they lost again.

So thank God. I wish they could have a buy again this week. It would be great. Hey, before we get to the next discussion, I do got to stop you on the Patriots thing. Yes, they are amazing in bad, bad weather. I will certainly keep a lookout for that. That being said, do you think they saved their season? Can the Patriots get back in this mix?

They went from, you know, at the beginning of the season, especially with a couple of those games, that great game against Seattle, the night game that they had were like, hey, they're going to be just fine with Cam Newton. And then it looked like it was on a downward trajectory. So are we chalking that win up against the Ravens to, hey, yes, they played better, but Belichick in crappy conditions is absolutely amazing. Or do I look at that and say, hold the phone now.

Patriots can get back in the mix here as a playoff team maybe. What do we think? I just, you know, the back of my mind, I just don't think they're built for it. But they've got Belichick and they've got the ability to game plan. And maybe they play a bunch of bad weather games the rest of the way. Well, you know, look, their division, I do think that the bills are better than them. But I wouldn't say that there's no chance that the Patriots couldn't win one of those games. Because if those CTs play.

And same thing with the dolphins. And the tough part is you look at them. They're four and five right now. And you look at the rest of the AFC. And I see the two teams that are in their division as better put together than they are right now, the bills and the dolphins. I see the Steelers obviously up there. I see the chiefs obviously the best. I think the chiefs are better than the Steelers.

I think that game will, if those two teams meet will be phenomenal. We'll talk about that one later because I got some great things. to some angles people aren't talking about for that one. We'll talk about that down the road. But I think the AFC is pretty open. Like I love the rest of the season, man. I'll just tell you that. As a football fan, as an NFL fan,

the rest of the season is so wide open. All right, let's knock out a couple of these others that we need to. The Bucks performance prove it's literally just a New Orleans thing. And if they can avoid them, they're still a real contender. Also along those lines, if you will, comment on. the Saints and if they are without breeze, they would bring in famous James. Are they screwed or are they fine and just going to be able to hold down the fort?

I don't think they're screwed, but what I think is more is going to ride on the defense's shoulders. I think with the team like Teddy was great for them because Teddy took what the defense was giving him. He worked within the offense. James just has this fiber in his being that makes, makes him want to push the envelope to prove. I don't know if it's like prove what I can do or or exactly what is, but he just doesn't.

Now granted, you know, he's had LASIC surgery, so maybe now he'll see a lot better. But, you know, I don't know why he's always, he's always been reckless though. He's just, you know what I mean? It makes it fun to watch, but he's reckless quarterback. We know that. That's why you throw 30 picks. And that's not really what this team needs, right? Without breeze in there, they need to run the ball more.

they need to play solid defense. They can't put their defense in precarious positions due to James turning the ball over. So they got it. This is going to be a great opportunity for Sean Payton to showcase his greatness as a coach that can be the QB whisperer and get James to play down to the level, not up to the level. We don't want him to do too much. Just play down, dial it back and notch. Take the throws that I want you to take.

Don't push it beyond that. and execute this offense the way that we need to. So they're going to have to modify some things. Because this offense, thinking about Drew Breeze, for many, many weeks, this team was able to get by,

throwing the ball short, doing things conservatively. You know, like they were built their seven two team. They were building up a lot of leads without Drew Brees chucking the ball down the field and putting into tight quarters with the opponents. So I think you can coach James down.

In regards to the bucks, this is still a good team. I have my concerns about their defense. Todd Bowles, I love him. The way that this team started out, the way that this team was last season. Like I was praising Todd Bowles in my book in the offseason about how great he was.

And I need to see more of it. It looks like there's guys in their secondary that are struggling a little bit. We need to see those guys step up and we need to see a little bit better job. Big game here Monday night against the L.A. Rams who are playing without Andrew Whitworth along that line. That's going to be huge.

But it weren't seriously. I mean, we've been doing the show all season. The only two times that we've been down on the Bucks were the weeks after the Saints games. That's literally the only times all season that we didn't think the Bucks are an awesome team. The rest of the time, they've looked awesome. Right. The matchups are definitely, definitely bad for them against the Saints. And, you know, at least those games are done with.

Right. So they're going to be incorporating Antonio Brown a little bit more. Their receivers are getting healthier. They're getting Tom Brady. You always wonder about quarterbacks as the year progresses older guys. What happens to their arm strength, right? Because you're resting in the off season and then you're moving through the course of the season. How does that arm strength hold up? But look, I like the fact that the Bucks are a bet on team down the stretch because not only do you have the ability for like AB to get more integrated into the office and the other weapons? But I still think there's elements of Bruce Ariens and Tom Brady trying to get on to the same page here. I don't think these two guys are yet seeing the game and the field as one. And I think the more opportunities they're sitting in film study, the more opportunities are out of practice and discussing things, the more that they will see the game with one mind through one eye and be able to, just execute things and call plays at an optimal level. So I'm looking forward to see them.

I think anybody that's out there that is a red zone watcher like I am, it's without fail. You are going to see more than likely the end of the Chargers game and you are going to see the end of the Lions game. If you have not been focused on those two teams, you're going to see the end of those game because they come down to something crazier than hell. And it feels like every Lions game is like that.

And again, crazier than hell. They end up winning the game because Matt Prater hits a 59-yard field goal. But once again, they were in this spot where it's like the last two minutes of these games decide the outcome of these games. What do I make of – we've talked a lot about the Chargers this year because they've been in so many crazy situations like that. But what about the Lions? It's every week, Warren. I'm watching, you know, I see them, and it's like Andrew Siciliano like, and let's go back to Detroit. It's like two teams have scored in the last like minute and a half of the game and whoever gets the ball last ends up winning the game.

And this time it was, it went in the lion's favor. But they had blown it again. Yeah, the lions are one of the most frustrating teams that you'll find. And this is, this is pretty consistent for them over the last couple of seasons where they rank right about average in terms of margin. at half time, they rank right around league average. But the points they allow in the fourth, third and fourth quarters and what they score in the third and fourth quarters, I mean, they completely, this offense completely falls off the rails.

And the defense just allows points in bucketfuls. And they rank 31st in scoring margin in the second half over the last two years. Oh, wow. And when you compare the first half margin to the second half margin, They have the fourth worst combined margin over the last two years. Is Vegas caught on to that? Or could I start betting against them every second half? You can definitely start betting against them every second half.

I'm looking here. There's been like one second half in the, I think the last three second halves. The last three games at least, they've allowed, they haven't covered a second half number. And for much of the first half of the season, they didn't cover a second half. number. So they've been good in the first half overall, but just bad, bad, bad in the second half of games. So I would definitely, they're a definite look to bet against in the second half, especially if they have any type of lead at halftime. But they're one of the most frustrating teams because it shows to me that their coach, Matt Patricia, does not make second half

adjustments, does not coaches team up well at halftime. These are things, how can you be so good in the first half and so crappy in the second half, this is what it comes down to. You're not operating your offense at an optimal level to possess the ball and to continue scoring points. And your defense is just falling off compared to what it was doing in the first half. And then if you want to talk briefly about the Chargers, I welcome the opportunity because Anthony Lynn, it's time for this guy to go. I cannot tell you how frustrated I am. watching him. I watch this team and they go into Miami and they have on first downs in the first half. This is how we're going to establish our identity in this game. This is what's on

our game script. This is what are we coaching up our team? How are we going to go down there and win this game? What is our game plan and our philosophy at practice in L.A. as we're preparing to go into a hornet's nest down in Miami and deal with Brian Flores' defense? You know what they come up with? They run the ball twice as often as they pass it on first downs in that first half. You know, I thought about you. I thought about you, Warren, because I was watching this game. I had Miami because I'm riding to it until the wheels fall off. All right.

And the first possession, it was like nothing, nothing, nothing. Punt, Miami blocks the punt, takes it in and scores in one play. And I was like, oh, this is, Warren is fuming. Oh, my God. So they average only 2.3 yards per carry on those runs. We're not talking about the Baltimore Ravens that we're able to run the ball on first downs in the first half and gain six and a half yards on each run play. We're talking about you're doing nothing on these runs and yet you're running it twice as often as you're passing it. Yet, meanwhile, meanwhile, when you do pass the ball on these plays, you're averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt and a 75% success.

So not only are you getting nothing out of the ground game, but when you do, happen to pass the ball, you're doing great. Now, what did they say after the game? Keenan Allen said, well, we decided to call, we decided to change up and Brian Flores was confusing us a little bit offensively. So we ended up running the ball a little bit more in that game. And that's why when you look at the first half prior to the two-minute drill, they had 17 runs and only eight dropbacks, eight drop-back 17 runs, over two times more runs. Those runs, and we're not just talking about first downs, we're talking about all three downs.

Those runs were averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. So the runs aren't doing crap. They drop back only eight times in those eight dropbacks. No targets to Mike Williams, one of the best wide receivers that's on your roster. Only one target to Hunter Henry, one target to Hunter Henry, the entire first half ahead of the two-minute drill.

One catch by Keenan Allen, the entire first half ahead of the two-minute drill. Why are we doing this? It's because we're running the ball too much because we're scared. But guess what? you are having success when you run the ball on first down. Change up your philosophy.

You know that Brian Flores is confusing a rookie quarterback on third downs. Avoid third downs. Pass on first down. This is not, again, this is not rocket science here. But week in and week out, this is what Anthony Lynn's team does. It comes in with conservative not to lose game plans. And you do not win games by playing not to lose. And that's exactly what Anthony Lynn doesn't understand.

And it's why I've tried to give them passes. And I've applauded the team loudly on this very podcast when they did things intelligently. And they came out passing the ball on early downs in the first half of games out of their buy week. I made sure to compliment things that I see that are going well. But when I see things that are reverting back to this, where you think it's going to protect your team and protect your offense by running and getting nothing. on these early downs, you absolutely cannot continue with this coaching staff. I'm sorry that they philosophically do not understand the right way to optimize their ability to win games and they don't understand the way to maximize and protect a young quarterback.

And that's actually, if you think about it at its core, that's a scary proposition. And I just feel bad for their fans. I don't know how many they're still left now if they left San Diego, but I feel bad for their fans. I feel bad for Justin Herbert. I for bad for the guys on the team that just want to fucking win a game, right? They did all these close games. They keep losing every single game by one score and they just want to fucking win a game.

And now they're buying into like, well, yeah, we decided to run more because this defense was confusing us. Like they're getting brainwashed as well by this bad coaching. philosophy and that's why I think they're never going to get over the hump with this coach. I'm sorry, but they're just not. Blame the cow, Warren. All right, last thing before we get out of year, they got beat by the Miami Dolphins. There are a bunch of six and three teams in the AFC that were not playoff teams last year.

Walk me through these, just rank them in terms of how much you believe in them the rest of the way. These six and three teams are as follows. the Miami Dolphins, the Indianapolis Colts, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Cleveland Browns. Which of those we believe in the most? This is tough because I actually really like some of the things I'm seeing from the Raiders, but I'm fundamentally trying to get over the mental hurdle of my priors on Derek Carr. but he is playing so well and he's deserving of of of of of praise for that um but i'm fundamentally uh trying to get over those the team that of all of these teams a team that has the easiest

schedule down the road is the cleveland browns they play the fourth easiest schedule in the nfl the rest of the way oh we're getting playoff baker mayfield i i don't know if we will but he they don't not have OBJ. And so when they get into games where they're going to need to pass them more, I know some people are saying addition by subtraction and all this stuff, but that remains to be seen.

It's going to be, it's going to be interesting to see how they do it. You know what? They feel a little, when you watch their games, and it's not very exciting. It feels a little raveny from last year in like the sense that they just do it different

than everybody. They don't throw. They do not put him in positions to lose them games. And they got these two guys in Kareem But, Nick Chubb and they run the ball like hell all the time. You know, ball control.

You don't get the ball. You only get the ball for like 10 minutes the whole game. And, you know, it doesn't make for exciting football, but it's been effective. No, it doesn't. And I think Baker Mayfield is in a perfect offense. And this is what I said before, like Kevin Sophansky is the most perfect coach for him. And so I'm excited to see what they're capable of doing.

But I don't really have a lot of confidence in their defense to, to win like the Ravens did last season. And their rushing offense isn't dynamic enough to do what they need to do. They've had a couple games with just ridiculous wins. And there's also supposed to be a little bit of weather. We'll see what develops for this game against the Eagles on Sunday. If you look at all these teams, though, every single one of them plays an average to easier than average schedule of opponents down the stretch.

So these teams are going to continue to build on their positive records. I like the Colts, but I think, Chris, their defense is not all that's cracked up to be. I think they've been lucky to play some teams that don't have good offenses. And I think that they've been lucky to not have to face quarterbacks with perimeter threats. One of the best passing offenses that they faced was the Cleveland Browns, and they put up 31 points on these guys. I can't wait to watch this game. Sunday afternoon against the Green Bay Packers. Because for the first time this season, the Colts are going to be going up against.

And what are the Colts great at? They got a solid defensive line with the Forrest Buckner. They've got a great linebacking core with Leonard and Okoriki and just a bunch of guys on that linebacking core. But here's where they're going to be tested. A good quarterback with perimeter weapons. They might be getting back one of their Lazard, one of their deeper threats for the Packers in this game.

going to be a super fun game to watch. But I think the Colts, they're still going to win games, and I do think that they're going to make the playoffs. So I think they're going to make the playoffs. I think the dolphins are in a driver's seat. They need Tua to continue to evolve. You got betting on them and betting on Brian Flores.

That's going to be fun for you. Why are they only three at Denver? That's crazy. I'm going to ride it. I'm going to keep riding it. Look, I rode him at Bama. I'm riding him again in the NFL. This guy pays.

No, he does. Now, I've seen that game off the board because we don't know what's going on with Drew Locke right now. And I believe that he might be missing the game. Well, yeah, Drew Locke hasn't been playing great. I mean, my God, I tweeted out a giff of like a door trying to be locked and then just somebody getting right through it because this guy has been just not good. This is what I expected, though.

This is why I took the Denver Broncos team total under before the season started because I don't have a lot of confidence in Drew lock. Yeah, me neither. And two at times headed to Denver for that one. It's going to be a great week. Lastly, before we get out of here, because we're not going to hear you until you talk to House on Friday, and you will talk to him after what is a monster.

This is a best Thursday night game, you can imagine, with Kyla Murray and Russell Wilson going up against each other. It matters a lot within the context of the division. It's a big possible bounceback spot for Seattle after they were kind of popped against the Rams. Arizona coming off that crazy high of winning in the manner that they did. So it all sets up for a perfect Thursday night. Do you have any overarching thoughts on what we'll see at Arizona, Seattle?

Is it going to be the absolute ridiculous shootout that I think it'll be? I don't know. We'll have to see if Tyler Lockett is there. We also have to remember that the first game around like Jamal Ad, Adams wasn't as integrated as he is now because I believe Jamal Adams was injured for that for the prior meeting and came back for the Buffalo Bills game. So the C-Hawks have some better components, but I still think Kyler Murray and his legs are going to have a lot of success here.

That being said, I have not placed a single wager on this game. What's an over under on that? 57 and a half. I'll be over. So everybody should probably take the under because I'll be over. And what? Do you not have good success? You don't have a good track record with us?

I don't know. I don't know. It's up and down. Yeah, look, this is a massively important game for the Seattle Seahawks. When we talk about just where they've been, what they've done, how they've struggled. They have got to come in here and figure out a way to write the ship. And it's going to be hard without Tyler Lockett. Now, they might be getting some components back from the road.

run game. If they don't have him in, I don't, that is, that's tough for me to like 57. You are having, they're seeing a lot of success. See, they're going to approach this game very differently than the way that the Buffalo Bill has approached it. The Buffalo Bills have these three, four wide receiver sets and that's what they were thrown out there. The Seattle Seahawks, they're going to use a lot of 12. They, they might even use, if, if a locket's out there, I don't even know, they might go some 13, but this is an awesome. offense that can fool the Arizona Cardinals with getting into heavier sets like they want to run the ball and come out passing it. So the Seahawks are going to need to use a lot more disguise

offensively in this game to kind of fool the Arizona Cardinals defense. But Arizona is terrible against play action. They're terrible against pre-snap motion. They're terrible whenever you get into a run look and pass out of it. So those are the things that Seattle knows and Seattle should be able to try to utilize against this team. And then, of course, we had last game that awesome play where Kyler Murray pretended to take the snap, check with me at the sidelines where he and a couple other guys looked over at the sidelines. Meanwhile, silent count snap comes back to him.

He just chucks it deep to Hopkins on the side of the end zone there and gets the touchdown at the goal line. Cliff Kingsbury is going to be trotting out everything to try to take over this division, right? this is such a big game for that division. They can sweep Seattle in this season. Mentally, it just puts, even though physically on the scoreboard, it's going to put Arizona up mentally, it's going to put so much confidence in this team.

So this is going to be a great game. We'll be a great game. Warren, I will talk to you next week, everybody that's listening. Make sure you stay tuned to the Ringer NFL show throughout the week. Kevin Clark and the crew will be back tomorrow. And obviously you'll hear Warren, Wichow House on Friday. Thanks for our producer, Jonathan, And as always, we will talk to me next week.