The Ringer NFL Show - How Did the Lions Lose?! Plus, the Seahawks Interview Mike Macdonald, and More Big Takeaways From Conference Championship Weekend | Extra Point Taken
Episode Date: January 30, 2024Sheil and Ben start the pod by sharing their reactions to the rumors that the Seattle Seahawks will interview Mike Macdonald for their vacant head coach position. They then debate how much Dan Campbel...l’s decision-making contributed to the Lions' disappointing loss and take a hard look at the 49ers defense heading into the Super Bowl (16:38). Sheil then issues an apology to the Chiefs faithful, while Ben shows us how hard it will be for Detroit to get back to this moment (41:32). They end the pod with some sympathy for the Ravens fan base and an examination of Kyle Shanahan’s career (1:04:47). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Welcome to Extra Point.
Take the Chilka Pottie here.
Joined by the boy Savant, Ben Solac.
And then there were two Chiefs and the 49ers,
two worthy contenders in Super Bowl.
58 Ravens and Lions.
Two long off-seasons ahead.
We will talk about it.
My partner, Ben Solac, is in Mobile, Alabama.
This guy, I mean, no breaks in between.
He's just diving championship weekend.
Senior Bowl.
Super Bowl,
free agency,
draft,
it's nice to be young.
Listen,
I'm ready for drafts coverage
at any time.
If you were to ambush me
in this pod with some
first round mock draft takes,
where's the class strong,
where is it weak?
You know,
what is,
need that team,
need lines, need this,
Ravens do that.
I'd be ready for all of it,
all right?
I am highly versatile
at this time of year.
I am not prepared
to even ask you those questions.
So don't worry.
I won't surprise you.
Maybe one of the future episodes.
I will.
All right.
I don't know where you're getting,
you know,
takes are mostly, I think all
about the games this weekend,
but I'm curious if yours are, if you got
some offseason buzz going on.
So, like, you are up first today. You've got
the, you're in the lead off spot, and you've got the extra
point. So what is your number one
take for today's show? Yeah, my number
one take for today's show, I'm going to
go for off-season, because I think this is critically
important. I'm sure we're going to get to all the games, whatever.
Thank God, the Seahawks are interviewing
Mike McDonald. Holy smokes, this is important.
Holy smokes was this weird. I can't
remember if we were talking about this off air or on air on the most recent podcast.
But the people are asking me about the Seahawks search. Oh, what do you think they're,
who do you think they're like? What do you think they're doing? I got no idea as of last week, right?
They haven't brought in. They've talked about Ben Johnson. They haven't interviewed Mike McDonald.
These are the two top candidates on the coaching cycle. They've gotten Mike Kafka into the building
and they've gotten to Joe Ever into the building. They've gotten Dan Quinn into the building.
They're pretty, you know, there's rumors about, oh, it's always going to be Quinn and they're
going to keep the Seattle system going. But they have to be.
haven't like sat down with the top guys of the cycle and at the very least,
talk to them,
seeing what's up with them.
And it felt like a team that had been out of the coaching search for so long that
they didn't really know what they were supposed to do when they were in the head coaching cycle.
Well,
lo and behold,
Seattle,
I think,
you know,
listened to enough podcasts.
They did enough searching on Twitter.
You know,
just kind of put on NFL network insiders,
put on ESPN insiders.
Oh,
we,
this might.
McDonald go. People are really into this Mike McDonald guy. What if we talk to him?
And now they have an actual interview scheduled in place. They've had a, they have Ben Johnson and Mike
McDonald both coming up this week now that both of those guys have lost games and are more
available on the market. There was a really interesting moment over this past weekend, kind of
preparing for these conference championship games where there were reports coming out that was like,
hey, Seattle's so excited to just wait for whenever Mike McDonald's done with his process and if the
Ravens make the Super Bowl and the extra two weeks.
It'll be like a Shane Steichen thing.
Like, I don't know where this came from Adam Schaeft are like, oh, the Seahawks,
don't feel any rush at all.
And are so excited for whenever McDonald becomes available.
And it's kind of like, yeah, they just figured out that this guy's probably
to do that they need to interview.
The McDonald interview is really important because the Seahawks are in the NFC West.
All right?
They face the McVeigh Rams and the Shanehan 49ers each twice a season.
So quarter of your season right there is against Shanahan and McVeigh.
And while Mike McDonald's Ravens have been far from perfect against that all.
offense. That Rams game went to overtime, mind you.
Right. The Ravens won that game 37 to 31 on a punt return touchdown.
Matt Stafford and Sean McVeigh, they got theirs.
McDonald and the Ravens defense has been really, really, really good against the
Shanahan style of offense over the course of the last couple of years.
They've been tremendous against the dolphins.
Now, in the last couple games, they've played, obviously that game in 2022,
the Dolphins surged back in the fourth quarter, but in generally, they've been excellent
against that defense.
Or actually me, that offense.
They played Shanahan himself directly, had a wonderful game against Per day,
against that offense.
They're the best offense in the league by EPA for play against motion.
They are really, really good at dealing with precisely what the Niners and Rams are doing
offensively, what they're giving you.
And so McDonald's Seattle, like, always made so much sense.
And I could not understand for the life of me why they weren't talking to him.
And now, like at the 11th hour, it seems like they're like, not only just not talking to
him, it's gone from like, we haven't interviewed this guy to like, all right, no matter when this
guy's available, we will be talking to him.
And he feels like right now that we,
in the clubhouse with him now out of football with the Ravens losing to the Chiefs.
They're going to talk to him this week.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see McDonald head coach the Seahawks faster than you expect
sometime later this week.
All right.
So I think Mike McDonald is a fine candidate.
I think it is a trap to hire him for the reasons you stated about his ability to deal
with the Shanahan and McVeigh offenses.
I mean, to me, that is short-sighted, that is short-term thinking.
Kyle Hamilton's not coming with you from Baltimore to Seattle.
Roquan Smith's not coming with you from Baltimore to Seattle.
Justin Madibuque's not coming with you.
And it's like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVeigh,
these are very good offensive coaches.
Like first, like you said,
I mean, McVeigh, you know,
the Rams put up 31 and we're in overtime in that game.
It took a big effort from Matthew Stafford,
but still, they did not get shut down.
And Kyle Shanahan, I mean,
we're talking about a one game sample where, you know,
the Ravens played well against the 49ers.
Shanahan, like that should almost not factor into your reasoning at all for whether to hire a head coach.
Like, there are 400 other things you got to be looking for than that. I mean, don't you think
Kyle Shanahan's going to have a plan B the next time he goes up against a Mike McDonald defense and
he might cook him in that game? And it's in like the dolphins thing. Like a lot of teams, you know,
had success with the dolphins down the stretch also. So I don't, if I'm the Seahawks, like that's,
all right, fine. That's kind of a nice thing. That's like, that is basically not factoring into my
decision at all. Now, if you see Mike McDonald as a guy who's on the cutting edge of defensive
football and you like his ideas and his game plans and his leadership and you've heard great
things about how he relates to players and you could see him being in Seattle for a long time,
remember Pete Carroll's been there for a long time. Like, they're not, and they're not,
like, they're in this weird middle ground. Like, I don't know when they're going to be
totally competing for a Super Bowl next. So I like Mike McDonald, but I do push back on like
some of the reasoning for why he would be a good fit in Seattle.
Like I think he's talking to Washington as well.
I think he'd be a good fit in Washington.
He just seems like a smart guy from a good organization with good credentials.
And it's all a crabshoot, but like I don't see any red flags there.
It might work out.
It might not.
But that's the reason why I think he's a strong candidate.
I disagree with the notion that he's been good against the Shanahan offense.
And maybe you just view him as like a cutting edge guy who's on the forefront of defensive innovation.
that those are like separate.
I don't think it is possible in the current NFL meta, right?
The current NFL strategy, leading strategies of the day,
to be viewed as a good defensive mind
and not inherently be good as a guy who knows how to combat the Shanhan stuff.
Shannon stuff's everywhere, right?
If you want to make an argument for McDonald's as a good defensive mind,
you start with the Niners game, right?
Like that is a crown jewel in the argument.
You talk about what he did against Houston in the division around.
Do you talk about the Miami game?
Absolutely you do.
Many, many, many defenses have run into Miami and fall in flags.
They don't know how to deal with that unique approach, right?
That really like specialized, stylized, offensive approach.
And then for the Seahawks specifically, because I agree, he'd be a great candidate for Washington for all those reasons, right?
Why not get that guy in the building?
He's objectively a good coach.
He's been good on paper and also it's theoretically good.
You can understand why he's good against the Shanahan offense.
Sure, bring him Washington, great candidate.
But doubly so for Seattle, because, you know, he's good.
they know how often they're going to see that offense.
When you interact with teams and when teams set their goals out for the season,
they always frame things in terms of winning their division.
They always frame things in terms of their divisional opponents.
I think it's pretty clear in the way that coaches and players talk about things is that
their first thought is like, right, let's win the division, let's beat the teams that we see twice a year.
Like, let's be able to defeat those guys.
And so Seattle is inherently going to say, we have Shanahan and we have McVeigh.
And that's always so misguided in my opinion.
Why is that misguided?
Because teams think they know what's going to happen way more than they actually do know.
I mean, teams go into the seasons mis-evaluating their own teams,
mis-evaluating their own personnel.
Now you're going to make big decisions based on what your predictions are.
Obviously, you want to win your division.
I'm not saying you don't want to win your division,
but you've made the point a million times.
Kyle Shanahan's offense now looks a lot different than Kyle Shanahan's offense three years ago.
We'll get to the Super Bowl matchup.
Maybe in this episode, maybe later this week.
maybe next week, but like, you need the person capable of evolving and problem solving and coming up with answers.
So I don't think we're disagreeing maybe as much as it sounds like we're disagreeing.
Right.
Because I think we both believe that, but it's not like they're in your division.
Like, who cares?
Like, I know that the bones of the offense are going to be similar.
But like so much of that is going to be personnel and game plan and stuff like that.
So it's like, does he have the brain?
Does he have the mind?
Does he have the flexibility?
Has he shown an ability to adjust?
Can he do more with less?
Those are all the questions.
Not like, does this iteration of his Ravens defense looks good against those
Shanahan and, you know, Shanahan offenses?
And so that's why you hire him because you want to win your division and Shanahan's in your
division.
I mean, the 49ers were picking up chunks in that game too.
I mean, we remember us talking about that game.
Like, yes, the Ravens played well and they were forcing negative plays.
You know, it's not like, I don't even remember.
It's the Niners, it's the Niners offense.
If we evaluate them as like, oh, but they were still picking up chunks,
that's still a great day against that offense.
That's playing the Super Bowl in two weeks.
Are you confident that if they played again, like, let's say they were playing in the Super Bowl,
Ravens 49ers, would you feel strongly that the, like,
we'd still be talking about Mike McDonald did a great job against Kyle Shanahan in that
matchup as strongly as you feel now?
Yeah.
What was the last bad Ravens defensive game?
Because it wasn't this past Sunday.
Yeah, no, they had the best defense in the NFL.
like that is his credentials for sure and they did a great job last week in the second half against Patrick Mahomes.
There's no doubt about it. But again, it's like personnel, Matt, like there's so many things that go into it.
In the presentation, the schema of like, okay, McDonald did a good job against Shanahan this time, but he might not do his good of a job against him next time.
Yeah, like, I'm with you. Like Shanahan is going to continue to change the offense.
Same way McVeigh is going to continue to change the offense. And he didn't, they didn't have a great day against McVeigh.
but if I asked you to list right now,
you know,
you are,
you are,
the,
the chiefs have like a,
you know,
a pandemic grips through the chiefs,
God forbid.
And you,
she all are tasked with scraping together a team
from the rest of the league,
right?
To you,
I get a new offensive coordinator,
a new defense coordinator,
new head coach,
new quarterback,
all custom built to beat the Niners
in two weeks in the Super Bowl.
On the top of your list
of defensive coaches to beat them,
you would put Mike McDonald,
right?
Yeah,
I would agree to say like,
oh,
maybe he's not going to be as good
next time around.
and I agree with you because it's not a static thing.
But in general, in terms of guys who might be able to solve that problem right now,
he is leader in the league, he is forefront of the league.
And Seattle was not even talking to this cat.
And now it seems like they're going to bring him in.
And I still strongly think that like the interdivisional aspect of it is important, right?
You say like, who cares if he's in your division?
The teams do, man.
They do.
And it's because it's very hard to make the playoffs if you can't beat the best teams of your division.
And that's the objective is to get to January football.
And so to me, like, it's the division and the fact,
that Shanahan's right there,
exacerbates the issue for the Seahawks.
Isn't Shanahan the one who reminded us?
We could all be dead a year from now.
You don't know who's going to be coaching the Niners.
If a tenant of your argument is the Kyle Shanahan
just withered Wojack meme,
we're all going to die tomorrow,
then I think I think I don't have a like to stand on.
I agree with you.
It was sort of bizarre.
I don't really understand what their process was
and when they interviewed him
and why they suddenly had interest in him.
Now, I think it would be a good fit there
we'll see.
Well, now if you're Mike McDonald,
let's flip it because Ben Johnson is the other name, right?
I think the presumption is that Ben Johnson and Mike McDonald are going to get these two jobs.
It seems like Ben Johnson would be more likely to get Washington.
Mike McDonald would be more likely to get Seattle.
For those, now we don't know that.
Any stuff could change.
None of those are definite.
It could be totally different by the time we end this podcast or even during this podcast.
It could change.
If you are an agent for those two, Ben Zolak.
And you say, oh, all right, money's the same.
All right, yeah, like, don't really have a big preference in terms of where I want to lit.
Like, where is the more attractive destination financials being equal?
And is it different for, like, one guy versus the other?
You know what I'm saying?
Do you have a strong opinion on that?
So I remember I did a take in the end of the season where I was like, hey, this washing job is pretty good.
like we we don't associate Washington commanders and good job and we haven't for a long time because of ownership
but once ownership flips and the slate gets a little bit wiped clean there's a lot to like about that job
I think for Ben Johnson it's definitely ideal because you go get the quarterback right you go get you have two overall
it's probably better for McDonald too like I think right having two overall and having the freedom to
make a pick a quarterback it's tricky right because typically if you look over history if you make a top five pick a quarterback and that guy doesn't work
you get fired, right?
So it's kind of like early eggs in an early basket,
but I still think like having that flexibility is preferable
to having like Gino on an existing deal
and the challenge of getting ready for the post-Geno future
a quarterback with like never a top pick.
So I think Washington's preferable for both.
It definitely is for Ben.
But Seattle's not a bad job by any stretch.
And you have to imagine that there is a,
the stability that is offered in Seattle.
And I think like good ownership that wants you to stay
and do good work.
Ownership's a bit of a question in Seattle.
though, like, you know, with Jody Allen.
But I generally agree with you.
I think Washington, if you want to, you know, like you said, the quarterback question is always the biggest question.
Seattle, you have someone you can win with, but is it like that upside of, hey, this person is going to lead us to a Super Bowl.
That's a bigger question mark.
Also, the bar to clear, you know, I always say you want to follow the Urban Myers and the Joe judges and the Matt Patricia's.
I'm not putting Ron Rivera in that category.
He's had more success than those guys.
but that Washington fan base is coming off the worst owner in all of professional sports.
And like you go nine and eight next year and make the playoffs.
I mean, that fan base is just going to be over the moon with you.
Whereas Seattle, that's kind of, they're stuck in that middle ground.
And you're following Pete Carroll, where if it doesn't go well right away, that's a tougher act to follow.
So I think I would, no, I lived in Seattle.
I loved living in Seattle.
So I would just say, you know, the quality of living, you know, great, great spot and a great facility right on the water there.
So a lot of things going for them in Seattle.
But I think from a football perspective, it's wild to say we're in this post-Dans Snyder era, though.
And I feel like the DC job might be more attractive.
All right, there we go.
All right, that's your first take.
That was a good one.
You know, I was wondering, like, what are we going to have here?
Are we just going to be talking about these games?
We've got something else.
So I'm glad you switched it up there.
Here's the thing.
There's really not a lot to come off of the conference championship games with.
There's just like Lions Depression and Ravens suppression.
Hey, don't steal, don't steal my takes.
Okay, don't steal my first take.
It's my good, Donald, I'm going for it.
All right.
I'm going to take the low-hanging fruit.
You can probably predict what I'm talking about,
but sometimes you've got to get your takes off, as you kids would say.
My first take, and you're probably sick of this,
because I know you've probably been on threads and online,
and you're like, I don't want to do this right now.
So feel free.
You can feel free.
You can feel free to just be silent and move on to your next take if you don't have a rebuttal.
My first take is the,
The Lions did not lose because Dan Campbell went for it on fourth down. Everyone knows the situations now. Okay. But here's my issue. And I know people are sick of the discourse. You predicted it like right as it was happening. And then you wrote about it in the hot read on the ringer.com. Here's the trap I can't believe that like we still fall into in these discussions. Like, has no one ever made a hard decision before? Like these are hard decisions. Okay. This was essentially a toss up decision. Have you ever had a decision in your life?
Phil said that uses coddled these days.
It's like it's 50-50 and you have to make a call
and the call you make isn't the right call?
Like that hasn't happened to anyone apparently.
So I mean, that's the situation Dan Campbell is in.
It's not a no-brainer, a home run.
This is what you do every time.
It's generally a toss-up decision.
All you can do as a head coach is go with the decision
that you think gives your team the best chance to win
with the information you have at that moment in time.
I know everyone ignores that part.
Everyone's a genius after the fact.
You knew exactly what it was going to happen.
You felt the vibes.
You felt the momentum.
It was just in the air.
Of course they weren't going to get it and the whole game was going to flip.
You just knew it.
Now, you didn't know it in the earlier game when the Chiefs went for it on fourth and two
and they scored a touchdown in a 1710 game.
There you knew it was the right decision to go for it.
Again, you just, you have this magic power with the momentum and the vibes and everything
happening around you.
It must be a nice superpower to have.
I don't have that superpower.
And so I believe that the most lame analysis is to wait for a toss-up decision to fail and then rip the coach and pretend you knew he was going to fail before the decision was even made because you don't know that and you're lying about that.
Your gut wasn't right.
You didn't know it.
And now you're pretending like you did after the fact.
So if you have that skill, apply for an NFL job.
I think you could be very, very valuable.
Here's what I think Dan Campbell was thinking.
I think he thought, you know what?
The strength of my team is the offense.
Part of the reason why we've gotten here is because we've been an aggressive team.
It's in our identity.
We practice it.
We prepare for these situations.
I'm not catching my players by surprise.
Guess what?
We convert on fourth down at a higher rate than most teams in the NFL, again, because it's
part of our identity.
So you know what?
I'm not going to change that right now.
Our defense literally cannot get a stop in the second half.
My kicker, by the way, is 13 for 24 on kicks from 45 to 50 yards in his career.
career that's courtesy of Mike Sandow of the athletic. And so Campbell made those perfectly reasonable
decisions. They did not work out. And guess what? That happens. That's not why the Lions lost.
The Lions lost because, are you ready for this? This might take an hour. Don't do this.
It's going to hurt me again, dude. I have to. You can cover your ears if I have to. People need
to hear this. Josh Reynolds dropped a pass on fourth down. Josh Reynolds dropped to pass on third down.
Jemir Gibbs fumbled. Kindle Vildor had a potential interception, hit him in the face, and Brandon I.
you caught it for a 51-yard completion.
The Lions wasted one of the best puns I've actually ever seen in my entire life,
and it ended up being a touchback, which is essentially giving the opponent 25 yards.
Jameson Williams could not track the ball, not an easy play on the flea flicker,
but he had a chance at that one.
That's a touchdown.
They foolishly, and you can rip Dan Campbell for this,
ran the ball on their last possession.
So bad.
And wasted a timeout.
The defense had five chances to make a play in the second half.
and failed on all five, three touchdowns, and two field goals.
That is why the Lions lost the game.
Campbell was not being reckless.
In fact, it was the opposite.
He had data.
He had a feel for his team, his players who he's been around,
which his greatest strength is having a feel for his players.
He had that feel.
They would have looked at him sideways probably if he decides to kick the field goal there.
Like, what are you doing?
Is coach panicking here?
We're doing something different than we've done the entire season.
He made those decisions.
He tried to win the game.
He was not thinking about worst case scenario.
He was not thinking of coaching out of fear.
That is what I want from my football coach.
So Lions fans, it sucks.
It sucks that you lost.
Dan Campbell told the team we might never get back here,
which guess what?
Sometimes that happens.
Some of these teams rotate in and out,
and you think about that one missed opportunity.
But I just want to be clear about why they lost
and not point to a couple of freaking toss-up decisions
and act like everyone knows every time when it's fourth and two,
when it's going to work.
when it's not going to work, when they should go for it, when they shouldn't go for it,
because that is lameo analysis.
All right, there you go.
You can just move on.
I mean, you look hurt.
I see the pain in your eyes.
You love this Lions team.
Yeah, on the season, the Lions converted on fourth down,
on 80% of their fourth downs of three and less.
That sets 80%.
Their field goal kicking from 40 plus was like, what, 45% or something like that on the season?
Like they were, 45 to 50, he was 13 for 24 this specific care.
Yeah, they were better at picking up those fourth downs than they were taking the field goals, right?
Like, so firstly you start there.
For anyone who like continues to see teams when they're in, I like the 30-ish, right,
it's a kind of long field goal range, attempt fourth downs instead of kicking field goals.
The expected value of going for it in those worlds in which you get it,
you're so much more likely to get seven points.
you're so much more likely to actually successfully get three points
if you have to kick because you're closer.
It's just more valuable to go than it is to attempt to feel
go there and potentially miss it.
Like if that framework,
that framework's been around for a long time now.
If you're still not cool with that framework,
I don't know what to tell you.
Like that's,
that makes sense logically.
It makes sense mathematically.
It makes sense from game manager's perspective.
Seven is more than three.
It's more than twice as many as three.
You're pretty much putting yourself in a position
where you're a lot more likely to score seven than kicking it
where you're just passing on scoring seven entirely.
Like that's better.
The momentum thing is the real thing here.
Like the number one complaint that I've seen is no one has any idea how to quantify momentum,
which I think is true.
Like there's like the whole like analytics ignores momentum.
Like George Kittle had his like,
why do all the analytics people think momentum isn't real?
I think a lot of analytics people think momentum is real.
It is a sensation.
The thing is that I can I can directly quantify my win probabilities based off of down distance,
yards to go, score margins, so on and so forth.
Like I know what my win probability is on a model that I trust to be.
fairly accurate. It's probably not perfect, but it's fairly accurate, given the circumstances.
I know that it's telling me I should go for this fourth down instead of kick it.
I also know that there's some semblance of momentum and that that momentum affects is going to affect
my win probability slightly, right? It's going to have some impact on how likely I am to win the
game. And that's probably not getting captured in the model. But you cannot make decisions
by saying, all right, I have information that tells me one way I should go. There's probably some
other information out there that would affect my decision slightly.
And since I can't quantify it, I'm just going to kick, even though it's less likely,
it tells me it less likely to win.
Welcome to the world.
You don't always have all the information.
Like it's the idea of like, oh, you're ignoring momentum.
We're not ignoring momentum.
We just can't do anything about it.
If we miss a kick, they get momentum.
If we make it, we get momentum.
If we get the furth down, they get momentum.
If we don't get foot down, what are we supposed to do?
We can't get our hands around this thing.
The idea that you should cater to momentum serving the great god of how we all feel
because it's there and that's all we've got to it.
Like that's not what coaches do.
Like imagine like third and six or third and 12.
We should stop the pass.
But there's a small chance they might run.
And we don't know how big that chance is.
So we should really defend the run because who knows how big it is?
Like that no one would ever make that suggestion ever.
So why do we make it with momentum?
Because it's just this thing that exists in the ether that we're,
that we don't know how to quantify.
And so we'd say, all right, just,
just count out to it.
Just fall down before it.
Just do whatever it says.
That's not how you,
you have to make decisions in a game.
You have to make choices.
So we've got good data
that helps us make one good choice
in this small vacuum of the world.
We've got to go with it.
And 16 years from now
when we can quantify momentum,
we'll be better at this.
And you and I'll be old men sitting on rocket shares
going, man, Dan Campbell really should have kicked
that fourth down.
Now that we know what we know.
But we got what we got right now.
We have the information we have available to us right now.
You got to go.
You had to go for fourth.
I don't know who you want.
Like I bet Dan Campbell is a believer in momentum and would say,
I was trying to gain momentum or keep momentum or stop their momentum.
Like that's probably how you, like the, again, these were not like,
I don't think he was going precisely by the book on what the analytics chart said on these.
Again, these were 50-50.
These were kind of toss-up decisions, these four downs.
I know you had models in your column.
There were ESPN models that were a little bit different that had it even closer.
Like these were not 100%
Here's what you do
Or the nerds are going to get angry type decisions
He felt he was doing the right thing for his team
And it was a toss-up decision
I would rather my coach be
And again your strength is your offense
Not your defense
And your defense cannot stop their offense
Like I don't know
I added all up
And I think those decisions
Were perfectly justified
I just I don't know how you watch a game
Where a ball bounces off of Kindle
Vilder's face mask
And Lanz and Brian and I use hands
And you go man I wish Dan can
implicate the field goal. Are you out of your mind?
I agree with that. A 50-yard completion on a ricochet off of those eyeballs.
What are we talking about? Yeah, give yourself a chance and see what happens. All right, let's take a break.
We will come back and get to the rest of our takes.
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All right,
we are back on extra poitique.
I mean,
you sweep that one under.
No,
don't have to talk about it.
Although,
I don't know what your next take is.
You might be talking more
about the lines.
You might be talking about
another team.
What do you got?
Yeah, I'm talking about
the San Francisco 49ers here.
The 49ers have a defense
problem entering the Super Bowl.
They simply do.
Shield, since 2000,
I've got 46,
technically 48 teams now,
that have made the
post that have made the Super Bowl, right?
They either gonna win it or lose it.
The 49ers have surrendered
in the divisional round
and the conference championship round
because sometimes teams
go to the Super Bowl
by actually playing the Wildcard round.
Sometimes they don't.
So just looking at these two games
that the Niners played.
They surrendered 21 points
to the Green Bay Packers,
31 points to the Detroit lines,
52 total points that they've surrendered.
Of the 48 teams,
Sheal, that is the fourth most
that a Super Bowl qualified
team is surrendered in the divisional round and in the conference championship round combined.
The teams that surrendered more were the 2012 49ers, which is 49ers fans very well know.
They would go on to lose the Super Bowl to the Baltimore Ravens.
Also the 2019 chiefs, who beat the 49ers, had a nice deal of its performance in that one.
And the 2018 Patriots, who were giving up tons of points in their playoff run and then ran into
Sean McVeigh and Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.
And we all know how that went.
So it's not like they're going to lose.
Okay.
like, oh, these bad defense went two for one.
But by points allowed, this is one of the, the, the, the shakier defensive
runs that we've seen for a team qualified for the Super Bowl.
If we don't look at point score, but instead just looked at defensive total EPA,
they've surrendered of the last two games, negative 13.15 defensive total EPA.
That is fourth worst of the 48 teams that have made the Super Bowl since 2000.
This is, in terms of recent runs that we've seen in the post seasons,
not one of the strongest defenses,
of recent memory.
Now, you can obviously say,
all right,
we've been like wide in the scope.
Like you're talking about
the last two games
and both of them
against playoff teams.
Like, yeah,
the 49ers defense
isn't going to look that good.
And that's fine.
Over the course of the regular season
in the playoffs now,
like this is the whole year,
the 49ers are 15th
in defensive EPA per drive.
Right?
Like this is on the season,
a mid defense.
They are 23rd in defensive success rate.
Sheal,
they are on the season,
the second worst defense
against the run by success rate
to own.
only the Arizona Cardinals and Johnny Gans.
This is a liable and take advantage of a bowl defense.
I say this with great pain because as somebody who had a lot of lines exposure
coming into the weekend was feeling great through the first half because of the way
the alliance moved to the football, then that second half happened.
And San Francisco kind of slipped by.
And it's unfair to say that they've completely skated by with luck and like, you
happy bounces or whatever.
They certainly got a ton of luck
and a ton of nice balances against the lions.
But like Brock played quite well.
That was the exact sort of game,
by the way that like when we've talked about the difference between Jimmy and Brock,
we've said,
hey,
like in the post season,
Brock's ability to like scramble and create outside of structure.
Like that's the big difference between him and Jimmy.
This was the game for it.
They won the game in large part because Brock is creating outside of structure.
Like enormous,
especially in the second half game for your Brock party movement and you're scrambling.
You're tuck and run.
The third and four to set of the game winning touchdown.
Like the Brock legs was a huge ass.
of this. This was a great game from a young quarterback in the postseason. I'm not going to comment
on some passes and some interceptions that could have been caught and whatever, but in general,
like the second half end movement with his legs, that was the difference for you. So they've,
they've earned their stuff, right? They hung around in that Packers game and defensively,
they got the stops that they needed. You know, Green Bay had a lot of opportunities to get a big
early lead like Detroit did, and that defense held it down. So it's not to say it's a totally
liable defense, right? Any defense that's got Nick Bosa and has Javon Hargrave and has Fred
Warner and Has Charverius Ward.
They got enough star talent that they can make intermittent plays.
But we watched the Packers and the Lions both come out with extremely similar running games
and just say, hey, like, we are going to go right at your edge rushers and we're going to
collapse them down with tight ends and wide receivers.
We're going to crack block them and pinpole.
We're going to buck sweep.
We're going to get to the outside.
We're going to say, if you want to go light boxes, like we're going to take advantage of these
upfield penetrators at edge.
We're going to get to the boundary on you, Jameson Williams, 40-yard touchdown run to start
the game.
And then if we don't like it, we're going to say, we're going to take it.
We're just going to get heavy on the interior.
Pente, Sewell, sixth offensive lineman, three snaps in a row, brother.
We are running up the middle.
That was awesome.
You're giving us four down fronts.
We're going to get some double teams on you.
And we're going to tell Fred Warner, hey, nice pass defense, Bucco, want to defend the run.
And we're going to take advantage of where you're a little bit liable.
You go to now a Kansas City team that Kansas City has done a lot over the last couple of years to invest in their running game, right?
This is a good interior, a good back on Isaiah Pacheco, a physical back and a team that has become more willing over the last.
for years to line up on her center and hand the football off.
And they have shown that they can engine this offense with the running game if they need to.
And certainly, we know Andy Reid, liable for a couple of fun plays to get on the boundary,
take advantage of those edge rushers.
I don't trust this Niners defense.
It is the least trustworthy unit in the Super Bowl by a mile.
Now, they got two weeks and you have a Kansas City defense that's got their own big weaknesses
right at wide receiver.
You can walk into game planning meetings today and be like, shoot, we're just going to line up
our guys versus their guys in coverage.
we can put a lot of resources into the box,
put a lot of resources into the homes and dealing with the pocket.
And you're right on that.
You are.
So it's a Steve Wilkes,
cash them checks game,
right?
The Steve Wilkes make your money game.
But all together,
like,
I was watching the game with Lions fans,
right?
I had a bunch of Lions fans over to my house.
And the whole game,
they were like,
man,
like this Niners,
they have like a top five defense.
We're killing them.
And I was like,
man,
I'm not doing my job.
You all got to know,
like,
this has not been a top five defense this year.
It simply hasn't.
Well,
if I were a Niners fan,
defending here yelling at my phone or my car or whatever, I would say.
It depends. What metric you're looking at? If you look at DVOA,
they actually were a top five defense in the regular season. I tend to agree with you
based on what I've watched and specifically what I've watched recently in that I don't trust
them. And I think they're very getable. Now you would say, well, what's the big difference
between the not to get super nerd on this, but the metrics that Solac gave out and DVOA.
Two main ones. One would be strength of schedule.
DVOA takes into account EPA per drive success rate do not.
And then the other one would just be garbage time, whereas DVOA tries to, you know, take that out.
Whereas, and the 49ers did blow teams out this year.
So success rate, EPA per drive, those would include all of those there.
Having said that, that's the Niners defense.
And so that would, you know, tell you, all right, there might be a good defense in there.
They've played good defense at times this season.
I tend to agree with you.
I mean, when you said the Packers put up 21 points, I was as, wait,
Like, wait, do I have to correct him?
No, no, no.
Packers went up and down the field.
They played more than, and then I love, oh, yeah, okay,
they only scored 21 points.
They had some stops in the red zone there,
and then down the stretch there,
the Niners got some stops.
So it's kind of been the formula we sort of talk about
a lot with teams where it's, hey,
if you have a great offense
and you have like a mediocre defense
that can make some high leverage plays,
you're going to be in the mix,
not necessarily how you want to live.
I mean, these are two games in a row
where I think you would say,
Jordan Love, first time starting quarterback, and Jared Goff, both carved you up pretty good.
And now you're going up against the guy who will probably go down as the greatest ever do it in Patrick Mahomes.
Like, yes, that has to concern you if you're a Niners fan.
And so I am curious, we'll talk so much next week about the game playing and the strengths and weaknesses.
Certainly we went in thinking, all right, the Lions should be able to run the ball.
And who did they run the ball?
I mean, they gashed them specifically in the first half.
then, you know, all the numbers, but hey, the Niners, you can't throw on them in the middle of the field.
They were making some plays in the middle of the field.
Like, if you, you know, that was actually the big difference.
So like I would say from divisional round to divisional round, I felt like, all right, Jordan
Love knows he can't throw in the middle of the field. He's making plays on the outside.
The lions were like, no, no, no, we'll come up with plays to attack the middle of the field,
and they did that.
Yeah.
And the absence of Talanoho Fonga, strong safety for them who went out during the season,
how does it, uh, towards ACL is meaningful, right?
They've got J. Ear Brown back there.
It was a rookie safety.
He's been taking snaps.
They've gotten some Logan Ryan out on the field, right?
Logan Ryan, playing another Super Bowl.
Shout out Logan Ryan.
They've been playing Avery Thomas and the nickel.
They are thin in the defense of backfield in terms of the guys that they want to play there in those interior areas.
And Hufanga, like, Hufanga wasn't even the best cover man.
It's just Hufanga would light your Christmas tree up, right?
I mean, he would hit you.
And that's the number one way to discourage defensive throwing out of the middle of the field.
Like having a Fred Warner helps,
but the number one way is just punish the crossers,
punish the digs, right?
You got to be physical.
And that was what Hufanga really brought that.
I think that they don't get as much of that from Brown.
Yeah, I mean, like,
the other thing is that Will, like,
Wilkes is running the D'Amico stuff
and the Sala stuff,
but it's very much so, like,
whenever a new coach comes in
to how to run an old guy's system,
he's got the big dials, right?
When we run quarters,
we run four-down rush,
the little dial.
the coaching and the details and the vision and the tendencies
that makes like a simple defense work.
It doesn't have that, right?
And so like the Niners used to be like,
all right, we know what the running on first time.
We know the running on second down.
We can get to our spots.
Like you would run all this pinpole stuff,
all those bucksweeps up against the Niners for until the sun came down.
You could do this forever against them.
But they would eventually get you to a third down.
And then Sal and D'Amico would come out with something
that you'd never seen before.
Come up with some nonsense.
And it's a blitz a guy and spin a guy and drop a guy and craziness.
Wilkes,
the little dials in the defense.
And so they are,
like,
at one point,
the lions had faced
five third downs
of nine or more
and converted on four of them.
They knew what they were getting
on third and long,
right?
And like,
you,
you got to be winning.
It's so,
dude,
how did they lose?
How do they lose?
You got to know.
We're just talking
about all this good stuff
that the lions did in there.
Jamir Gibbs missed touchdown,
dude.
What?
And so it's,
it's,
you know what the ones,
no one is,
here's the one no one has mentioned.
Sorry,
but the,
was it FERCser?
where there was literally no one else on the screen.
How did he not score a touchdown?
I need to rewatch that.
I might need to pause the podcast.
I'm watching it.
Wait,
how did he not score a touchdown?
There's nobody there.
It's unbelievable how injury ends up working in the playoffs.
There's always a game where this happens where the Lions,
like so Sam Laporta,
like they lost Shane Zaltra in camp,
who's supposed to be their tight end two.
And so then it's going to be Brock right behind Sam Leporta.
And then in the week where Leporta's hurt in the beginning of the playoffs,
James Mitchell, who's their tight-in three,
breaks his hand in practice.
He broke his hand in practice.
So now he's gone.
So your titan depth is just Sam Leporta,
who's super banged up and Brock Wright,
who's now you're tied in two because Zilstra got hurt.
So Leportas playing on the bum leg.
Brock Wright's out there,
you do the best you can't with what you got.
And at the end of the Bucks game,
end of the Bucs game.
Like they had this game won.
Brock Wright hurts his arm.
And now it's now,
now you're tied in depth of it,
is Sam Leporto, Anthony Firks,
and nobody else.
You're signing Zach Hertz's off the street.
And then you say,
you know what?
Zach Grids, he's not ready yet.
We're not going to play him out there.
So guess who's there catching that pass?
Anthony Furkser!
It's just so, like, it is crazy the way injury accumulates
to all of a sudden that got a key down.
Anthony Furkster's getting the ball.
If Penny Sewell lined up a tight end, they would have scored.
If the offensive tackle was there, they would have gotten that in.
But Furkscher just not his game, man.
And then, yeah, so then you run it on third and goal.
The running on third and goal is one of the worst coaching decisions in the last.
That was horrendous.
I don't know.
It's, there is no.
That can't even be in your head.
That can even be an option.
Who's bringing that up as an option at that time?
You cannot do it.
For all risk.
For all risk.
The second you hand the ball off, you say we have to hit an onside kick to win.
It's so bad.
I learned this watching the game and talking to people.
There's a prevailing mindset.
There's wisdom that once you're at like first and 10 from the 26 minute and a half left three timeouts,
you should just kick it.
And that way you know you have your three timeouts.
You know you can get your defensive stop.
Then you get the ball back.
And then you can run another drive.
But once you decide not to kick that and be down seven,
once you decide no, we're getting seven right now,
the priority, the number one priority is ending that drive with three timeouts.
Oh, it's so bad.
It's so, so, so bad.
All right.
So, Niners defense, we'll talk.
We're going to have a lot of good stuff from Vegas next week.
We'll talk more about them.
How do they defend it?
This is the most explosive chiefs offense, which might lead to my next point here.
Actually, sorry, did you have something to close on?
One more thing on this.
because you said, you said, as we were talking about it,
facing Patrick Mahomes, who, you know,
a little cheeky like, might be the greatest, right, to ever do it.
I, we are day one in a Super Bowl ramp up.
I'm already done with Mahomes Go Talk.
I did, like, it's not that I disagree or agree.
It doesn't interest me at all.
I couldn't, it's as if I turn on a football show
and they're talking about baseball.
I don't care.
I know, we have so much time to talk about it.
Can we just watch the dude play?
Can we just talk about the dude?
What content are you consuming?
See, I didn't even know I was repeating something.
Surrey Network on airport televisions
because I was flying all day today.
Listen to podcast.
By solemn vow,
this half of the podcast,
I promise you,
listener,
I will not do any
is Mahomes the greatest
contextualizing on this pot?
It's so boring.
It's so unbelievably boring to me.
He's clearly the best quarterback
that is in the world right now
and I'm just going to watch him play.
All right.
My next take,
Patrick Mahomes is the goat.
I knew it.
I did you hear how very funny dad joke show.
Okay.
All right.
My next one is actually about the Chiefs.
And there's simply, I owe the Chiefs an apology, Ben.
And by the way, thank you, Chiefs fans.
You really could have been ripping me really much more.
I haven't even, you haven't ripped me.
And you've been very nice.
So going up my fan power rankings, but I still owe you an apology.
Because a month ago, on this very program, I buried you, Kansas City Chiefs.
I said you didn't have it this year.
I said you sabotaged.
I remember.
That was the word I used.
advertised a Patrick Mahomes season in his prime. How could you do this to the man? I said your
past catchers weren't good enough, that your offensive tackles weren't good enough, that if you
had a solution to these problems, we would have seen it by now, and you just got smoked by the
Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas night. I was wrong. What did I underestimate? I was thinking about this.
I underestimated the possibility that this could be a chief's team that wins in a very different way
than previous chiefs teams.
Ben, remember we talked about this with the Ravens?
I remember saying the Ravens' biggest strength
is they can win different types of games,
different types of ways.
And guess what the Chiefs did?
They went into Baltimore and won a different type of way,
almost won two different types of halves.
I mean, the first half, they come out and they're on fire.
I thought Mahomes, like, his final numbers won't look good.
That first half, he was absurd.
11 straight completions against the best defense in the NFL, 20 for 25 for 161 yards,
did not miss right decision after right decision, internal clock, in structure, out of structure,
you name it, he was killing it.
Travis Kelsey in this game, I know we can only, everyone now, when you talk about
Travis Kelsey, it's only in the context of Taylor Smith.
That was like an all-time performance for a Hall of Fame player.
He came out in that game and was ready to fight anybody and everybody and was like,
are the champs and you're going to have to wrestle this freaking belt out of my arms right now.
I mean, that was an epic performance, 11 for 11 throwing to Travis Kelsey.
And again, it wasn't just the catches.
Like, I loved his at him laughing after he's goading them into a personal foul.
Like, he was just so, I mean, they're always invested in game.
But that was like another level of like mental warfare that he was engaging in.
It's his first time playing a road playoff game in a while.
That's the thing about like this road stretch where they had Buffalo and Bullsport.
it out of you. They're loving it. They're like, whoa.
This is kind of motivating guys.
Like, we don't really feel this usually.
So we don't know.
But you can tell that they're,
they are enjoying being villains and interlopers in a way
stadiums, man. They are there.
It's always fun to get some bulletin board material.
Right. Brian Curtis of the ringer.
I would be remiss never to bring up the Brian loves to,
to share whenever a team has been doubted.
Patrick Holmes and the chief stuff about proving the doubters wrong.
This being, you know, their fourth Super Bowl in five years.
But you get some of that energy when you play in Buffalo
when you play in Baltimore.
Travis Kelsey over 10 targets,
caught all of his targets,
second such game from a tight end in history,
34 years or older.
It's him and Jason Witton with the Raiders
had a game where he caught 10 for 10.
He's 34, Sheal.
He's an old man.
And he's just putting out an historic performance.
Watch yourself.
Okay.
And this is against...
On the NFL scale of players.
Yeah.
And this against the best defense in the NFL.
I mean...
Yeah, epic performance from him.
So you still had Kelsey, you still had Mahomes, you still had Reed, and then Spags.
My good, I mean, he had, what have we talked about?
Oh, this Ravens Pass the game looks different.
They're operating more in rhythm, in structure.
I was praising them after the divisional round.
Oh, they came up with answers after the Texans blist them in the first half.
And Spags came out, and, man, Lamar was just holding the ball.
I think it was 13 dropbacks.
He held the ball for four seconds or longer.
It was tied for the worst Ravens' offensive performance with Lamar in terms of EPA per drive all season long.
Chris Jones is still getting it done.
Legerious need.
I know everyone.
You know, I can't stand when it's like, I can't, you talk about the discourse you hate.
I hate the, shouldn't it reach the ball over the, like, give me a, at least acknowledge that we're little nerd sitting on our couches.
Zay Flowers is trying to make a freaking play to get his team to the Super Bowl.
Can you settle down a little bit with a shouldn't have reached the ball over the end zone?
But my point was, Legerius Sneed, I mean, that is an all-time play, an all-time forced fumble from Ligerius Sneed.
They've still got these guys.
And so that, I was wrong about all of that, that they still got that championship medal, that they've still got that hunger, that competitiveness, that they can find different ways.
Mahomes had to turn kind of into just, like, don't make a mistake mode in the second half.
I don't know I'm saying that's what he wanted to do, but he was like, like, he has that Brady sense of what type of game is this and what is being asked to me.
If the Ravens were putting up 30, he's got a different gear he's going to get to.
But in that type of game, he's going, all right, don't give them anything.
Don't make that big mistake.
He didn't make it.
And the Ravens did make it.
So he was wrong about all of it.
I will never again in my life, as long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback, count the Kansas City Chiefs out.
They could be, you know, six and eight.
They could be five.
I don't care.
I will say, hey, until it shows me on that sheet that they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs,
I will acknowledge every time that they still have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.
They've earned that.
Mahomes now as an underdog, nine and three straight up, 10, 1 and 1 against the spread,
one and a half point dog going into the Super Bowl.
So again, Chiefs fans, thank you.
You really could have come out and crushed me right after that game.
Maybe, you know, you don't listen to this pod.
You're like, why would I listen to you?
We have better stuff to do.
That would be understandable as well.
But if you are a Chiefs fan who listened to this and you didn't rip me right away,
I appreciate that.
All right.
So there you go.
I feel like I got to somehow play the angry chiefs fan here.
I got to find some old social clip or something,
get a little,
get a little I or go and stir the pot a little bit.
No,
because I mean like,
the thing of the chiefs,
they've been here before.
What's,
what's Shiochopati is saying they're chalked?
They're the chiefs, right?
It's like,
all right, even if we're chalked,
we've been a half of the Super Bowls in the last six years.
And lo and behold,
it turns out they weren't chalked at all.
It turns out they weren't chalked at all.
The thing was, though,
they were showing us so, like,
how frustrated they were during the regular
stuff. That's what got me. If they were saying
if I could see, if I felt
like watching them that they thought
we'll figure this out and we'll be good and I know they said that
then maybe I wouldn't have been so strong. But I'm like
this is getting to them. I mean, the Holmes was
so frustrated, but anyway, that's just
justifying me being wrong. Go ahead.
No, I think you are, but
like there's an interesting
conversation that people are having about like
are the chiefs kind of entering an era where
we're not going to be able to really learn too much
about the team in the regular
season because they'll always just kind of like ratchet things up to an 11 in the post
season and like they're always just going to be like a team that like pushes for the division
and pushes against the top competition but like in general it doesn't need the regular season to be
crazy. I would say no. Like I don't think that's correct. I think they legitimately earnestly had a ton
of issues this year. And I also don't think that like they've solved all those, right? Like,
uh, this is still like the Travis Kelsey, Isaiah Pacheco Rishu Rice show. And I think for much of the
season, they were trying to figure out how to make it. So they,
that way they could win games where it's,
it's not the Travis Kelsey show in the passing game.
And I don't think they've still,
like besides Rice,
they haven't really solved that issue yet.
This is still like an underneath passing team that doesn't generate a ton of explosives.
Mahomes doesn't go to the ball folder in the field.
I don't think they want that.
I just think that are,
we underestimated how good they're going to be winning in that environment
because of how good they're playing mistake-free football.
Like that,
it's just,
it's very simply like mistake-free football.
And,
and I remembered randomly today,
Bahams at Texas Tech.
And we're in a cool moment here where there was a first stage of Mahomes' career,
where if you took us back to the Texas tech film and said,
this guy's going to become the greatest quarterback in the league,
like there's no way.
Like, okay, that's insane.
I can't believe it.
Like, look at this guy.
He's out there trying stuff.
His mechanics are terrible.
He makes bad decisions.
Like, this guy can't be the best quarterback in the league.
But also, you could see it.
You could get there.
You could get your head around it.
You could draw the universe because you saw the physical talent.
Now, if you took me back to Moham's Texas tech film,
you told me, this guy's going to drop back 50 times
against the Ravens and just not make a single mistake,
just never put the ball in jeopardy,
never try something he shouldn't try,
not even once, I mean like, like do it and get away with it.
Just never, never make a high risk play
in a game where all they needed to do
was just stay ahead of the sticks,
stay ahead on the scoreboard,
and let the defense winner for them.
I could not even draw the universe for you
where that Texas Tech player became that guy.
It is one thing.
It's like, it's like, you know, like,
it's like great epics and the stories of warriors
and like amazing knights.
Like, it's one thing to have all this power.
It's another thing to understand how to wield it.
It's another thing to understand how to take the edge off of it,
how to stay your hand.
And that's what Mahomes is now.
Mahomes is just like the all powerful who just is willing to just throw it to Noah Gray
on second and nine, three yards down the field.
And the fact that they'll do that and he doesn't break anymore, right?
Remember in 2022 when we were like too high against Mahom?
There nobody blitzes him anymore.
They drop seven, they drop eight.
Eventually he's going to make a mistake.
Nope, not anymore.
Now he just sits back there and it's just never, ever wrong.
And what are you supposed to do about that?
You just got to sit there and take it.
And the Ravens, down to 17 points.
Great defensive day.
It didn't matter because they can play comp under football.
112 dropbacks in the playoffs.
No interceptions.
Two sacks.
And the one sack, I mean, the accuracy, the flexibility
he showed on that sack where they had him down and he was like bent over, you know, and like,
on his, I don't know.
I literally don't know how to describe it.
Everyone knows, I think, you know, what I'm talking about.
That was one of his special video.
I don't know.
Yeah, him's personal trainer, whatever.
That video, man.
I think that's his trainer from the, yeah, QB, that show on Netflix.
Yeah, I believe so.
Yeah.
Yeah, where he's, where he's, like, practicing being in those weird positions, that was cool.
Yeah.
That's what my, that's what my workouts look like in my basement, by the way, on my yoga.
I would be dead.
Like, you would not hear from.
me for months if I had to even do that for half a second.
I haven't touched my toes in a decade, but I can do that.
Don't worry about it.
Okay.
All right.
Let's take one more break.
We'll get to our final takes and then the extra point.
All right.
Back on extra point taken.
All right.
What's your third take?
All right.
Dan Campbell was right when he told the lines they might not be back here, right?
We talked about this a little bit at the end of the regular season.
That hurts.
Too soon.
Yeah.
Did like aligns.
Tell Dan, right?
Dan told the team in the post game locker room.
Minutes after.
Yeah, but shout out Dan.
I mean, that's a hard thing to say.
And Campbell's honest with his guys, and you got to respect him for that.
We talked about this a little bit at the end of the regular season where I was like,
hey, the Lions, like, this is not, it does not get easier from here.
Like, it's harder, right?
Like, there's a, like, you, you end the postseason for the Texans and for the Packers,
and you're like, we can build this thing up, man.
We got a velocity.
Even if you're the Ravens, like, this is a disappointing loss and everything.
But you can look at the team overall and be like, man, we got great, like,
team.
Like, this is good velocity.
The Lions, it's trickier because you really, you ran pretty pure.
And the conference was weak and the division was weak.
And those extenuating circumstances aren't going to remain the same.
The conference is going to get better and the division is going to get better.
So that's number one.
Number two is the amount of outstanding questions that they have coming up in this offseason.
And Brad Holmes, there's a GM there gone, a lot of deserved executive year hype for the
incredible draft class.
And he's celebrating in the elevator for how well the rookies played.
but this is really we're going to make your money now.
Jason Fitzgerald over the cap shared earlier in the offseason in December,
early in the season in December,
NFL teams are the most projected salary cap room.
So this is not just looking at what the salary cap looks like now for 24,
but based off his experience and kind of likely moves,
where teams are going to be with salary cap.
And he has the line's ninth, 47.7 million, right?
A lot of potential space.
Now, the reason for that is because he anticipates movement on golf's deal, right?
And it's important to note, right, golf's got one year left.
It's a $31.6 million cap hit this year.
There are reports of the lines in golf have talked about an extension.
Are interested in doing an extension?
Golf's going to be 30 in the 2024 year.
He's still got a few years left.
Golf's also, like, a lot better than he was, right?
Like, there are golf extensions that I'm fine with.
I don't think the number is going to come in that low.
I think it's going to come in a lot bigger.
But in general, you can sign them through an extension.
And in doing so, you can get the cap hit from 31.6 down, potentially, if you want, right,
create some space.
there's a Tracy Walker contract you can mess around with.
There's a Taylor Decker contract that you can mess around with.
You can create some more space, right?
So, okay, $47.7 million.
The problem is, is that your nucleus, you have to secure a long term, right?
You have golf is under contract for one more year.
He's a free agent in 2025.
You have Monroa St. Brown is under contract for one more year in 24.
He's a free agent in 2025.
You have Penae Soule, who's under contract for one more year.
He has the fifth year option technically in 2025, and then you go from there.
Those are your three best players on office.
offense, right? That's your offensive nucleus, Sewell, St. Brown and and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, you can probably put Gibbs up there, but, like, fundamentally, like, that's, that's, that's the core of the team. That's the way that it's been. Um, John commencing's going to be up in 20, 25. You have, uh, uh, the corner situation is still tricky. You have a, uh, a, uh, kindlevilleville, who is supposed to be your corner to, and actually,
corner two. Both of those guys are up this season. You have a lot of dudes who are on the move.
Jonah Jackson was starting guard for you. He's up at the end of this season. Like you,
Josh Reynolds, start a wide receiver for you. He's up at the end of the season. They are at a point of
massive, massive turnover. And they have big deals to handle. So this Lions team is going to look a
lot different next year than it looks this year because they're going to put money on golf,
stool and St. Brown, I think, in that order. And then after they do that,
maybe, okay, Josh Reynolds comes back on a nice team deal. Maybe, maybe Kim,
Candleville,
comes back on a nice team deal.
But in general,
some of that middle-tier talent
is going to depart,
and those rookies are going to step up
into bigger roles,
and you're going to have to go
and with your remaining money,
really decide what is it
that pushes this team over the edge?
Is it putting the money in on the luxurious need?
Go get you a true corner one,
big contract of free agency.
It's it, T. Hagan's,
go get your big T. Hagan's contracted free agency.
Are you going to go for a whale?
Or do you continue to go from middle-tier guys,
which is what they've done, right?
You kind of just take swings
on the second tier of free agency.
you draft a ton of players and you see if guys can develop.
Like, the Lions have exited their rebuild stage and are now that they're like,
we either have to commit and go all in stage or we're just going to continue to draft above
expectation for the rest of our lives.
This is the fork in the road.
This is the crux where team building goes from like, we have all the resources in the world.
Nobody expects anything from us.
We can do so many good things to every time we make an error here, we lose half of an expected
game.
We are less likely to make the super bowl.
Like the margins get so much thinner from here on out for Detroit.
potential coordinator change on offense.
It's going to bring a lot of instability to that unit as well.
It gets harder for Detroit from here on now.
I love the guys they have at the helm of their ship.
I love their team identity.
I like the way they built it.
I think they're well equipped to handle the stormy waters ahead,
but it gets harder from here on out for Detroit.
The coordinator one is really the biggest one for me.
If you gave me all the roster stuff that you said,
but said, hey, Ben Johnson is still back.
I would feel pretty good about this team,
because, I mean, we're forgetting.
getting like Gibbs was a rookie. La Porta was a rookie. You know, Amman Ross St. Brown is,
should be entering the prime of his career. These are like, you know, fan, you should maybe get more
from Jameson Williams next year. Like, these are young ascending players who this theoretically
should have been a great experience, Penae Soule, I mean, your offensive line should be good.
My concern would be like, I don't know, I would probably chill with the golf extension. That's easier
for me to say, then them to probably say, where it's like, no, no, no, we don't want that hanging
over it. I understand all that stuff. I would say, can I just see what it looks like next year with
golf without Ben Johnson, if that's the most likely scenario and then figure it out after that?
Like, I really don't. And like, golf is a veteran. Golf's made a lot of money.
Golf probably wants to be paid. I'm sure his representation wants him to get paid. But if you're
the Lions, I mean, I would just say let's play it out next year. We have the franchise tag in
our back pocket if golf plays awesome and we get to a Super Bowl or with him next year.
Like that's a great problem to have.
We'll pay him a lot of money and we'll be saying we're bringing back golf.
We went to the Super Bowl.
But like if you're going to pay him monster money this offseason and now all of a sudden
you have a different offensive coordinator.
And again, maybe the schemes that, but like, I don't know, Ben Johnson seems like he's
been a differentiating factor for them and it doesn't look the same next year.
And you're tied into a contract that you already signed golf.
Like, I don't know.
I would be a little cautious with that.
That's one we'll probably talk more about here in the weeks ahead.
But that would be my concern defensively.
Yeah, I think corner you obviously.
I don't want, if you're a lion's fan listening,
I don't want you to think, like, this is like you guys are going to say,
like they've got awesome young talent,
like players that I legitimately loved watching play football this year.
Like if we did an under 28, you know, and did everyone's team and they're telling,
I actually think they would be way up there, but there are little things.
you know, what's the offense going to look like, that type of thing.
Here's what's tricky.
So, like, first thing, let me ask you this.
Percent chance that Jared Goff leaves the 2024 offseason with no extension.
What would you say percent chances?
I know, just based on the reporting and kind of the way they operate, I feel like it's more
likely than not that he signs one, but I would say, I don't know, 25 percent.
Is that too high, too low?
What do you think?
To me, it's five to ten, maybe.
Really?
Okay.
To me, like, given the way that they talk about it and the way that they seem to feel
about them, I would be.
flabbergasted if he doesn't.
And it would have to be there so far apart on the money,
which maybe, right?
Like,
Kirk Cousins is going to sign a deal.
Like,
that's going to affect things a little bit.
Like,
quarterback contracts are going,
man.
Like,
someone's going to eventually kind of reach a foot down point.
The Ravens almost kind of got there with Lamar.
So I think,
I think it's extremely likely he does.
What's tricky as you say,
like the young offensive talent,
the young offensive core is like one of the best in the league.
And I agree with you.
I really do.
Like, yes.
you really like that
when you're at a point
where like you have a super established veteran quarterback
that you're ready to win now with
see like Matthew Stafford, right?
Who obviously like,
it's not to say Detroit should have traded Stafford.
It's not what I'm saying.
But it's like like that when you have that guy
where it's like, okay, clear dude, very good,
ready to go, bang.
I don't think golf is that.
I don't think golf is,
is that good of a clear veteran quarterback.
I don't think he brings that much talent at the table.
Like the, you know, you watch Purdy
make those second reaction plays, right?
those scramble plays outside of structure.
And then you watch Goff just try to dodge one player.
And you're like, right, you remember what Goff looks like when the pocket starts to get muddy.
So I don't think golf is that level of talent, even as he's improved in Detroit.
You also really like when you have a really nice young core of talent when you're at a point of quarterback transition.
Because, okay, now we can bring a young player in here and he's going to develop.
We're going to give him the resource.
We're going to give him Penny Sewell and Taylor Decker.
We're going to give him Monter, Sam LaPorteur.
We're going to give him Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery.
they are going to create a bed, a bedrock, a foundation of growth,
good soil to grow this quarterback in.
And that's not where the lions are either, right?
This is the challenge of having a guy like golf, right?
He's like, okay, if you're going to succeed with golf,
you can't just have one of the best young cores of weapons in the league.
You need to have, like, the best weaponry to really feel like every year you're up
at that way.
Like, with how much you love the Lions, young core, which team of
weapons right now do you like better? The Lions are the 49ers?
49ers.
Yeah, the 49ers for like one year.
And that's probably going to be true in 2024, right?
And like, they have a brand and I you contract the deal with.
They got problems like, you know, like, you players get injured.
Like stuff happens. Stuff changes year over year.
But even with how well they drafted, even with how good these players are,
the top is tough to reach, man.
That's the thing is like, I think that Lions fans want to say like, no, like, we can do this
because we're just going to keep drafting insane.
And it's like, no, you get one of those.
that that 20203 class you just had you get one
ask Chris Ballard and the Colts
right you get one of those
and if you trick yourself on and thinking
we'll just do this year over year
we're going to draft rookies and get a thousand yard
receiving year out of the tight end
and Jamir Gibbs is going to be 10
all-purpose touchdowns and the same thing like it's not
it's not that easy
I will say this for golf
he's had seven seasons as a starter
in the NFL this was the fifth time
at his seven years
that he's quarterbacked a top 10 offense.
In Los Angeles, McVeigh got all the credit,
in Detroit, Ben Johnson, supporting cast.
Like, listen, I'm not disagreeing with you.
There are obvious limitations.
Golf played well enough to get his team to the Super Bowl.
I mean, golf played easily well enough.
Golf played great against the Niners.
He was ripping it.
In the NFC championship game.
I mean, there's another world where Josh Reynolds comes down
with a couple of those catches,
where Jameson Williams comes down with that catch
where we're saying the guy just got his team to the Super Bowl.
What are we talking about here?
And so I feel like, I don't know, like I look at the supporting cast next year with Jared
Goff with your best skill position player.
I mean, LePort is going to be the best tight end in the NFL probably for an extended period
of time.
You don't think so?
I don't think it's easy to say.
Based on what I saw as a rookie, all right, that's not, but R.I.5, but he had like an all-time season
as a rookie, I don't know.
I feel pretty good that he's going to be a top five tight end
for the duration of his...
The last tight end to have an all-time season as a rookie.
His name was Kyle Pitts.
What did he do afterward?
Well, I'm sorry.
The numbers were there.
That's the thing.
All right, I feel good.
I'll go to bat with LaPorte.
I'll go to bat with Amon Ross, St. Brown.
I was critical of the Jamir Gibbs selection.
I thought he performed like a top five running back in the NFL,
like down the stretch this season.
So I like all those guys.
They're all young.
I let Penae Sewell top five offensive tackle in the NFL.
So we'll see.
It's not going to be that easy.
They got answered.
They got questions to answer.
I would probably chill with the Jared Gough contract and say,
let's see it next year with the different OC.
That to me is the biggest question.
Who's going to be their offensive coordinator if Ben Johnson leaves?
And how much are they able to produce an efficient offense like they did this year?
All right.
Well, have plenty of time to talk about the Detroit Lions.
Now we haven't touched too much on that.
team then who lost on Sunday.
And I wonder how you feel about this.
So my last take is the fan base that should be most bummed today is the Baltimore Ravens,
not the Detroit Lions.
Agree or disagree?
Where do you want to hear my case first?
If I'm bummed, I want to hear the definition of bummed before I agree.
Just like the sadness that is overcoming text threads and it's not just about what.
All right.
So here, okay, let me explain why I'm saying this.
So number one, speaking about the lions might never get back.
I mean, the Ravens have a great chance to get back.
Their windows open as long as they have Lamar.
However, this could be like the best team they ever have with Lamar Jackson.
I mean, if you look at it, all the stuff statistically with DVOA, historically, the numbers.
I mean, this was like an all-time great regular season team over the last 20 years.
The way they blew out teams, like the 49ers, like the Lions.
we could go on and on Seahawks.
I mean, they were killing teams.
They could win in different ways,
and it's just hard to do that.
And their defense was so, so good.
And now we talked about the lines
potentially losing Ben Johnson.
Now the Ravens are potentially losing
Mike McDonald.
They're losing different parts of that defense.
I mean, they had a lot of one-year veterans
playing pretty big roles on that defense
who are going to be free agents.
We know that defense just,
there's a randomness, a variability,
a luck to it year to year.
and the defense will almost certainly take a step back statistically next year.
You also had Lamar healthy for the whole season, which I didn't want to say it at all down the stretch because it felt like you were jigsing it,
but this was a guy who missed 10 games in the previous two seasons and you had him healthy for the entire season.
So that's one.
And then two, the reason why Ravens fans should be bummed is like I think Lions fans can be proud, even with all the mistakes they made.
and you might disagree with me here.
Like, you went toe to toe with the Niners on the road as seven point dogs,
and like you did so many good things.
I kind of hated the way the Ravens played and the way they lost that game.
Like, they were so wound up, it felt like.
I thought I was telling the broadcast was like, oh, you know,
they let us know that they're going to get some hits on Mahomes when he's scrambling.
And it's like they went overboard sort of with that intensity.
Like, they were just like so, I mean, five penalties, five, 15-yard penalties in that game.
Like, they were just not playing smart football and giving the chiefs, the defendant champs, too many opportunities that you can't do in a game like that.
So that was one.
Two, game plan-wise, I mean, it really felt, I'm the last guy to be wearing the, you know, the established the run.
But my goodness, this was their biggest edge by anything.
X is an O schematic.
talk to people.
Their run game,
they should have been able
to run the football
and the Chiefs,
and they, like,
didn't even try in that game.
It felt like a panic setting.
Once they got done early,
like, uh-oh,
what,
like, no, no,
this is still a long game.
You have a chance to do this,
and they didn't run the ball at all.
Lamar did not play well in that game.
I mean, two turnovers
really could have been more
as I was thinking about it.
I mean, I think it was Nick Bolton,
dropped the one.
You had the ball where he catches
his own deflected pass,
which was an awesome play.
if he doesn't do that, maybe Justin Reed comes down with it.
And so your quarterback, who is the MVP of the league, did not play well in this spot based on EPA per pass play.
Sixth worst start of his entire career.
So you add all that stuff up.
And now the Ravens are entering this phase where it's really the worst, it's the worst phase, if you are a fan,
because the expectations are so high and you're going to try to enjoy a week seven game,
against the Carolina Panthers
and maybe you'll be able to enjoy it
listen the week to week with Lamar
during the regular season
that's a great experience
that's worth the price of admission
but guess what
there's always going to be that question
are they going to is this the year
it's like the bills is this going to be the year
they get over the hump
and finally get to the Super Bowl
and so when you're a fan
that cloud hangs over
your viewing experience
for the entire season and that sucks
and they really had a chance to get there
I felt like this year.
So it's not necessarily fair.
It's a little harder to enjoy the journey when you're always asking that.
Is this going to be different type year?
But I think if you're a Ravens fan, like I would recommend some emotional eating,
indulge a little bit this week because that's a tough one.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, you probably already have if you're listening to this on a Monday night or a Tuesday.
But that's just a tough one to swallow because you had a great team this year.
You had a relatively healthy team.
you were playing at home.
You got the buy.
You got the Texans in the divisional round.
You got a Chiefs team that was not a juggernaut,
and you didn't play close to your best game
when the stakes were at their highest.
So that's the case for the Ravens.
I agree.
I think that when the dust settles,
it's going to be easier for Lions fans to go,
great season, man.
We fought our tail off.
We ran to the Niners.
We should have won that game.
It sucks.
We lost that game.
But we did.
Great season.
Versus the Ravens who would beg,
right, great season, man.
Really, though, we probably should have been the cheap.
Like, this feels like a little bit of a bigger waste because of the relative fan-based expectations, right?
For Detroit, it's like, we played two home playoff games.
Like, this was kind of a big year for us versus Baltimore where it's like, okay, like Lamar's won the MVP twice.
And we have yet to appear in the conference championship game, let alone in the Super Bowl.
Like, that's not, we should be doing better than that.
Like, we, we, if we have an MVP caliber player year over year at quarterback,
we should be making runs.
Why aren't we making runs?
I think that that frustration is really high.
My extra point taken was going to be about the Ravens.
It's not anymore.
Because I was really trying to, like, I did the Lions thing,
and I was like, okay, I very clearly know how I feel
about this team's off season and where they go from here.
Baltimore, I struggle a lot more.
Baltimore's in a weird spot, dude.
J.K. Dobbins, right?
upcoming free agent coming off of the injury.
Gus Edwards is all void years left, right?
Like, if they don't touch running back,
they're walking in the next year with Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell coming off of injury.
Like running back needs work.
Wide receiver.
Odell Beckham Jr.
is just all void years, right?
He's an upcoming free agent technically.
Nelson Aguilar, all void years.
He's an upcoming free agent technically.
Rashad Bateman's got one year left in the fifth year option.
They're not picking that up.
Like, again, if they don't touch wide receiver, it's Zay Flowers,
Rashad Bateman with one year left.
Nobody else.
They have to, they would have to choose to extend Odell Beckham,
who Odell ran like half of the routes this post season.
He's not.
filthy enough, right? Like, Odell is, you saw me, he won that nine ball. He run that vertical
route. He won the release. And then Joshua Williams just caught up to him like your older brother
playing against you. Like, O'Dell couldn't separate at all. They had wider series out there that
you don't really want to have in terms of their talent level when you get to the postseason.
Off at the line, Kevin Zeiler, all void years left, right? You're noticing all the void years?
Like, they did some cap stuff to get to a point where they thought they could make a big run.
That's what starting guard. Zyla was a problem for them this year down the stretch game to be
older. Ronnie Stanley, man, left tackle. $26 million apiece this year and next year contract
wise. Ronnie is not healthy. Ronnie was rotating drives in the regular season. He lost to Charles
of Men who owned the strip sack, which could have been an enormous play for Baltimore.
I don't know how much I trust Ronnie to be my left tackle the future. Their entire offense
besides Lamar is in like a spot of flux and tight end. Mark Andrews is they likely. They got those
guys locked down. Charlie Kohler's locked down. They're good to go. But other than quarterback,
end, they're in a real, real state of flux with offensive personnel.
And this after, already having like a big offseason of change last year with a transition
to the Todd Monkin offense.
Like, I have no idea what the Ravens offense really and truly looks like in 2024.
I know where the bread is buttered.
Lamar Zay, Mark Andrews.
But like the ancillary stuff, they might have multiple new starters at tight end,
multiple new quote unquote starters.
Like they have a big rotation, or not on tightening, excuse me, multiple starters at offensive line.
multiple new starters at wide receiver and a new backfield rotation.
And they're going to have to figure all that out again during the seasons.
Like there are worlds which the Ravens offense really sputters out of the gate next year.
If they have like pretty substantial turnover at personnel.
It's a good point.
It could go either way.
It could be all year.
We could be all year two of Todd Monkin and Lamar.
Wow.
Okay.
This looks even better.
You know, last year we're supposed to be a transition year anyway.
But you are right.
I mean, Zayflowers, Mark Andrews, likely.
And Lamar is a nice like foundation.
But yeah, that's not, I mean, think about what we just mentioned the lions are working with.
Like, it is a different animal for the Ravens.
They still have to add to it.
So they're going to be competitive.
They're going to be high floor as long as Lamar's healthy.
But will they be as good next year?
Losing a coordinator, losing some of those personnel, it's probably going to be tough.
All right.
What do you have?
What's the extra point taken?
Extra point taken this week, as we look forward to Niners Chiefs,
I feel like I've had a combative relationship with 49ers fans this season.
season.
A little Brock Birdie conversations.
Tricky.
Not everybody's on the same page.
Some disparate narratives.
Obviously, I'm being critical of the defense, which I think is fair, but there's, you know,
okay, not, you know, he's still got stars or there's still a good unit.
The one thing I would say about a Niners Super Bowl is, and in terms of like what I'm
interested in and what is meaningful to me, legacy is defined as we approach this game,
right?
Like I said, I'm so done with this Patrick McComb's goat talk.
What matters to me is this.
It's really, really important to me that Kyle Shanhan,
wins the Super Bowl. And I think this is, this is his shot to do it. Last summer, Lindsay Jones,
who's our editor here and she runs our NFL team. She covered the Broncos for a long time.
She was working on the Hall of Fame candidacy from Mike Shanahan. Right. And she asked me about
some of like the Shanahan system stuff a couple of times, just as she was like helping work
on like what that presentation will look like, what that argument will look like, what the
story will be on Shanahan as he potentially makes the Hall of Fame. This being
Mike Shanahan. And it
was it really like little light bulb up
for me where you started thinking about
how coaches make the Hall of Fame
and what makes coaches impactful. And I'm
not a good person to talk about this because I don't have the
scope for it. Right. I'm young and like
I didn't grow up like
around all this contextualized stuff
and whatever. Like I don't I don't tend to like care too much
about who makes the hall. That's like a critical thing for me
like the legacy of the game or whatever. What I do know
is that like Kyle Shannon is the defining offensive
coach of the last decade of football.
What I do know is that, like, Kyle Shanahan is the defining coach of my experience covering football.
And I don't think that's going away anytime soon.
One, everybody's running his stuff.
Two, he's running his stuff better than everybody is, right?
Not only was he the introducer, not only was he the revolutionary and the innovator,
he remains ahead of everybody else.
He's still outd distancing the pack almost a decade later from when he really started to introduce his offense.
Shanahan is a singular figure.
when we look back in 10 years and 20 years and 30 years and 40 years and 50 years,
and we go to tell the story of the NFL football in the 2010s into the 20s,
what year is it? 2020. Yeah. In the 2020s,
Kyle will be the preeminent figure, in my opinion, in terms of coaches.
And I was on his Wikipedia page the other day. And on his Wikipedia page under career highlights and accolades,
it says AP NFL assistant coach of the year 2016. And that's it, man. When you go and you look at,
When you go and you look at these other,
like you go and look at Andy and you go and you look at Bill
and you go and look at all these other coaches,
they just got less and less of years they appear.
They won coach of the year and years that they appeared
to the Super Bowl and years that they did this,
then, the other thing.
And for Shanahan, like,
there's just not a lot of hardware right now
in the cabinet for the guy, right?
He wasn't even like an assistant on a team
that won the thing, right?
Like, I am not qualified to say
what makes a guy a Hall of Fame guy,
nor am I interested in doing that now
while the guys are active.
It's the same Mahomes Goat conversation to me.
but I have this vision of me in 15 years
trying to convince some yuppie 26 year old like I am now
hey, you know, Kyle Shannon's a Hall of Fame coach
and that yuppie 26 year old is going to go on virtual reality Twitter
or whatever on those days and be like, LOL, no rings, you know, he's bad.
He's not, he couldn't do it, he couldn't hack it.
And that's going to drive me nuts.
And so the legacy that interests me the most as we approach the Super Bowl is not Mahomes.
It's not the goat thing.
That's boring to me.
The legacy that interests me the most right now is Kyle.
and I really am rooting for the guy to get a ring exclusively to make my life easier 15 years down the road from now.
I would very much enjoy someone responding to you with LOL, no rings.
I mean, he's on that.
For me, like it just feels it's like a matter of time, whether it's when you keep knocking on that door, it happens.
I shouldn't say it always.
It does not always happen.
There you can bring up examples where it doesn't happen.
But man, this is the fourth time in five years.
that he's gotten to at least the final four.
And of course, this will be the second time in five years
where he reaches the Super Bowl.
And that was the first three times with Jimmy Garoppolo.
And now the last two with Brock Purdy.
And even if you love Brock Purdy,
I mean, look at the teams that consistently,
like if you go back over the last 25 years
and look at which franchises had these runs of continually being in the final four,
you will find, you know, like Tom Brady, I mean,
Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes.
I mean, if you just look at the
AFC from the last 10 years
since like Peyton Manning's Broncos days to now,
it's pretty wild.
It's, you know, it's like four quarterbacks.
Sparrow got there once,
and then it's Mahomes, Brady, and Peyton Manning.
And so it's been remarkable what he's done.
Everything you said is right.
I mean, he has evolved.
They've won consistently.
He's shown an ability to do more with less.
The way he manages that coaching staff,
like talk about, we just talked about teams facing their coordinators leaving
and what a big deal that is.
And he just replaces year after year after year,
not just coordinators, other members of his coaching staff.
So I feel like he'll get what eventually.
This is a great shot.
He's favored.
He's got a great team.
They've been a great team all season long.
They've got some issues on defense.
But man, offensively, when they needed to basically have no margin for error in the second
half, and did they get some bounces?
Yes, they got some bounces.
But five possessions, five scores in the second half.
second half of that game. Like, it's always
with them, it just feels like a
matter of time until they get
going, until they string together a
drive, until they get an explosive play
on offense, and they're right back
in the game. So, uh,
I would agree with you. Yeah, I think like,
Mahomes is, this isn't a defining
game for Mahomes. You're like, if they
lose, it'll be like, oh man, I'll be like,
well, I was surprised they even got that for.
And if they win, I'll be like, oh my God, I can't
believe he did that with this team.
But either way, I'm not going to be crushing the
guy one way or another.
Yeah, for, I mean, for Shanahan's health, you feel like he needs this one.
I mean, just looking at the man's face over the years.
Think about the villain that Shanahan will become.
Think about, think about what the man's going to be doing in the lab in the summer of 24.
If he gets it to the Super Bowl again and Mahomes beats him again, he's going to be just like concocting vile.
It's just affronts to nature in the lab of 2024 football.
It's going to be drafting every, it's just all offensive skill position players, every draft,
just bringing in any defensive corner he wants.
just do something over there with Nick Bowes.
I don't care.
He's going to have nine gaffers.
It's going to be the sickest offense you've ever seen if they beat him again.
And he has to go back to square one and continue to find a way to evolve.
Poor, poor, poor, sick man.
I hope he wins.
Yeah, for his mental health, let alone for his eventual hall case.
Yeah, I wasn't thinking that.
I always did just think of him, like, his poor personal assistant who, like, you know,
had this trip to the Bahamas plan for, like, the one week of vacation they get every year.
And it's going to be, like, get your butt in the office Monday.
after the Super Bowl 6 a.m., you're not going anywhere.
We got work to do.
So, yes, for the people who work around him,
it might be nice for them if he wins this one.
All right, we will, of course, be talking about all of that next week
from Las Vegas, Nevada.
Sight of the Super Bowl will be there talking about this matchup.
Sure, you're going to gamble with me in Las Vegas?
Do you gamble, like table games?
I, no.
All right, we're doing a show Friday.
I'm going to come up with a list of Vegas questions for you and you can decide whether or not
to answer truthfully.
So let's do that on our second show on Friday, an extra point taken.
We'll have some fun with that.
On Thursday, you will get Nora and Stephen on dual threat on Friday, Solek and I will
be back.
And then next week, we will have a bunch of shows from Vegas.
All right, thanks to everyone for listening.
Thank you to Ben Solek.
Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing.
Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for the video production, additional production supervision by
Connor and Evans and Arjuna, Ram Gapal.
We will talk to everyone on Friday.
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