The Ringer NFL Show - How Does the AFC East Explain Football in 2021?

Episode Date: December 1, 2021

Kevin is joined by Andrew Callahan from the Boston Herald to discuss Mac Jones, Bill Belichick's reconstituted swagger, and Josh McDaniels's future coaching prospects. Then, Joe Buscaglia from The Athletic enters the fold and dissects Josh Allen's development in Buffalo, the Nathan Peterman era, and how the Bills are keeping their edge heading into the last part of the season and beyond. Host: Kevin Clark Guests: Andrew Callahan, Joe Buscaglia Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Producer: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Let's help everybody. I'm JJ John G. And I'm Jason Gough. And if you haven't heard, the ringer has gone local. I'm bringing the fire. I'm bringing the rain from the big apple with my show, New York, New York. And I'm reping Shy Town with my new show The Full Go on All Things Chicago. We've got episodes three nights a week with all the reaction to the local teams and guests.

Plus bonus episodes around all the big games and storylines. So whether you're uptown, downtown, downtown, in the burbs or a transplant. Make sure you follow New York, New York, and the full go on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. It is the Ringwren NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast Network. I am Kevin Clark, joined today by two great writers to discuss a big topic, how the AFC East became the most intriguing divisional race in football. We talked to Andrew Callahan, who covers the Patriots for the Boston Herald, and Joe Biscalia, who covers the bills for the athletic.

We get into a lot of big-picture topics, what every team should be able to learn from the rise of Mack Jones, what Bill Belichick has been able to do this year, Josh and Daniels, whether he should get. a head coaching job and basically just take a look at what the Patriots mean to the AFC in 2021 on a timetable that is faster than I think everybody thought we get into that. Then we talk about the bills. Josh Allen, his regression, why they're so inconsistent.

You know, I think every team in the NFL at this point is inconsistent from week to week. We get into why that is a really cool topic. And just basically we get into how these two teams stack up ahead of their game on Monday night. So let's get to it. Here's Andrew. All right. One of my favorites, Andrew Callahan, he covers the New England Patriots to the Boston Herald. Andrew, what's going on, buddy?

How are we doing, great to be here. I'm fired up. We're trying to figure out what's going on in the AFC East this year, and especially as it relates to the quarterbacks. Because I think there's a lot every team can learn from the Mack Jones experience. Not everybody is going to be Belichick. In fact, Andrew, as you know, the last 20 years is coaches trying to be Belichick and failing. But there are some lessons here that we can sort of glean from what

the Patriots have done over the past not just, you know, eight months, but, but 18 months. And since Tom Brady departed, they, you know, some trial and error, so an adventurous for agency period that looks better and better every single week. But there's a lot here. And I want to start here with the big picture. Last year, Cam Newton looked great for two weeks. I was as excited as anybody. I think everybody kind of, he was such a, it was such a great deal.

I mean, honestly, those two weeks, it almost paid for itself when you think about the value of actual money. It was a league minimum deal. But then it became a disaster pretty quickly. In that season, what did the Patriots learn about themselves? What did Belichick learn about himself? Josh McDaniels? I mean, I think the only body of evidence before that was the Matt Castle year, which I remember talking to a couple of people, Rodney Harrison, that was that was Bill Bealechick's best coaching year. And so I think the wheels were turning where guys were saying, uh-oh, Belichick without Brady, he's going to be in his bag. And it didn't really work out like that. What did they learn in 2020? I think when you look back at

last year for them as miserable as that was, right? You get blown out three times. You go seven to nine. You're playing in silent stadiums amid, oh, a deadly pandemic. First of all, you can still beat the Jets. Things are not as bad as they could be in the AFCs. So, you know, secondly, though, when you kind of take the lessons of last year to apply them to 2021, I think they found out that their problem solving has limitations.

And I wrote about this a couple weeks ago. I think you have in the past the way they identify and they approach football is through problem solving. You know, the ethos of that organization is we're going to sacrifice everything at the altar of winning our time, our energy, our money. Everything goes there. They just straight up tell prospects during the draft, we outwork the rest of the league. But what they found out is as many edges as they think they can kind of mine with their film study and their work Monday through Saturday. It doesn't matter if you don't have the horses on Sunday.

So that roster was unfit to compete. Too many opt-outs. Cam got bench three times. He admitted into December. He was still learning the playbook. And they surrounded him with the worst skill position, on the league. So all your systems and processes can be great, but what does your roster look like? And when it looked like that, that, it was, you know, that's why you're seven and nine.

Wow. That's a great answer. Do you think, you know, I think a couple of Bill Belichick's ex-player said that he felt like last year was a joke. And I don't know if that was reported or that was just a vibe they got. But the edge of the Bill Belichick will always have is he knows week to week how to exploit a defense or, excuse me, an offense or defense. And last year, they didn't have that because there was no practice time. There were guys who were practicing on Wednesday and couldn't play on Sunday. Do you think that he viewed last year as kind of a wash? I think he just got sick of it at the end. And I mean that and that, you know, again, when they identify through problem solving, they believe like just the arrogance. Well, let's call it arrogance. They've earned six Super Bowls,

all this different stuff. When he can't prove I cannot work and outsmart you because I have to go sign Carl Davis off the Jaguar's practice squad, who's been good for them. But I'm signing guys off the street and practice squad players. Like there are too many things with the COVID. bit opt-out in the infections that he couldn't control and felt that I think we're kind of confounding variables and who's good, who's not. We think we're good, but we can't show to you because of all the stuff going on. And that's what I think you got tired of. Okay. So the Mack Jones journey started in April, obviously, when he was taken with 15th pick. But I think before that, the idea of the Patriots would draft a quarterback. I think a lot of it was, okay, people were

saying there could be four quarterbacks in the top six, and the Patriots would be shut out. Were they always trying to get a quarterback? Was this just how the chips fell and they said, okay, this is a value pick? Did they always want Mack Jones? Like, tell me the story of how this even happened, Andrew. Yeah, so from people that I've talked to, and I did some more over the summer and checked in with someone last week about that. And I think the plan was always, we are going to draft the quarterback. And they felt good about Mac dropping close to where they were. And Jeff Howell, the athletic, did a really good job of retracing all of the picks that led up to them at 14, which basically boiled down to, okay, Sam Fran, despite all of the bogus reporting, always was going to

take Tray Lance at three, which always made sense to me, right? Because that tray that they made to move up was to raise their ceiling. Lance is a high ceiling player. Mack Jones was always viewed as fifth best prospect, and more than that, a high floor guy. So then you go Carolina at eight. They're committed to Sam Darnold. The Broncos want to ride with Teddy Bridgewater at nine. And then the Saints can't trade up to Mac Jones at 14 with Minnesota. So he makes that fall. But I think if he had been gone, they would have been okay with another quarterback figuring we're going to pair a rookie with cam and let them battle it out over the summer. I don't know who that would have been. My guest would be Davis Mills because he later goes to Houston, right? But they liked him a lot from the start and just I think had some intel where they felt confident sitting and obviously landing him to 15.

One impressed the Patriots about Mack Jones. I've heard the stories about his recall. Obviously, it comes from the Sabin tree and Bill Belichick has shown a propensity to draft guys. who played for his friends, whether that's Greg Shiana, whether that's Urban Meyer back at Florida, whether that's Nick Saban now. But when he gets in the building, the Patriots thought what if him? Well, I don't think it's an accident. He's a Brady clone, right? Like in the reporting I did it around Mac after they draft him and talking to people from his high school, from college, people he played with his old coaches at Bama, they all came back to the idea that he modeled himself after Brady. Like he's showing a picture of, or Brady's Combine photo

two coaches interested in recruiting him and they say, look, you're small. We don't know if we can pull you in, sign you and offer a scholarship. And he goes, this is the greatest quarterback of all time. I've got six years to catch up to where he was at the combine. So I think they like his smart, his accuracy. And the dude, you know, sounds and looks like he was made in a lab with Nick and Bill collaborating over him in terms of how he approaches, even us in the media, his short area accuracy, his processing.

thing. So I think it was just everything to do with the interview when he sits down and has a complete everything that they would want and Brady did. It's just him, you know, 20 years younger, but obviously the ceiling is going to be different. Certainly. And again, it's something I've said a couple times. Everyone says, oh, he's a young Tom Brady. And we must understand what that means. He actually looks like a young Tom Brady. That doesn't mean he's going to be at 44 just destroying everybody and, you know, playing on a second team and winning more Super Bowls and he has, you know, fingers. So that doesn't mean anything. It just means he does look like a young, a young Tom Brady because that's how young Tom Brady operated. All right. So let's get

to the lessons thing here because the free agency period to me, I panned it. I thought, I thought, okay, they're going to get better from this, but they're not going to be great from this. Like, they're going to improve because not only if they have the opt-outs coming back, but then they had, okay, adding Johnny Smith or Hunter Henry or Matthew Dunn is a, is a net win, but you don't turn over all of your cap space into those sort of players. I was wrong. I retraced why I was wrong and Robert Kraft and Bill Bill's Bucketock were 100% right. But what what was their plan? Because I know I heard the Robert Craft quote about how, okay, nobody has this kind of money. So there's an inefficiency in the market. We can go out and spend. But I still didn't believe that roster was enough to get them to with the Kansas cities and Baltimore and even the buffaloes of the world.

So in even in building around Mac, even though when they started, they didn't know it would be Mac, what was that plan? So it was funny because when I was preparing for free agency, my thing was, okay, there should be lessons from how they've been building the roster even with Tom Brady to how they're going to attack it next because Tom Brady as good as he was was always a cost controlled quarterback. They got him at a discount. That gave him their big edge. And whether it was going to be Cam on the deal that they had re-signed him to or a rookie, they're going to have a ton of money around him and probably built similarly. So when you go back to 2013, which I deemed is kind of this unofficial start of the modern era, the passing boom was leveling off. You've got 11 personnel everywhere. In front offices at that point had a year and a half to kind of adjust their team building practices around the new CBA.

The Patriots had invested big money in tight ends. They had targeted receivers who were in the middle tiers. And then they kind of go bargain hunting for run stuffing defensive linemen. So that's exactly what they did. John Hussman and Hunter, come on down. Nelson Aguilar, Kendrick Bourne, welcome. Hey, Devon Gowchow, we'll give you a couple extra bucks because your Rosenhaus is your agent. But thanks for coming up for Miami.

So the big surprise was, you know, to me was Jewish. Judon, and obviously that's the big home run in this. So they followed their same formula. And when you look at their talent, you go, okay, like you said, it's not enough to compete with the bills and the chiefs. Their talent, though, just the raw accumulation of talent, even when they were winning Super Bowls, probably not top five, right? Like maybe the 2017 year when they lose to the Eagles, but they've always been a greater

than the sum of their parts kind of operation. And that's what this is. They followed the same formula. And Judon obviously has been the best signing of all with 11.5 sacks. But they had never signed a guy on the edge like that before. And I think making that exception has obviously helped make their defense now exceptional. Okay. So I wonder about the 2013 thing because that was fascinating because I thought about this before.

I actually peg it more to 2012 because that's when you have RG3 coming into the league. That's when you have Colin Kaepernick taking over full-time late in 2011, obviously. Cam Newton coming in in 2011 as well. And what that was the start of was I think a grand sort of flattening of schemes where every single level, of football could borrow from any other level of football, which was not true before that. Yeah, the scheme war. Exactly, exactly. I wrote the whole piece, all that stuff. Lincoln Riley said that he saw a big 12 game in the NFL, and that would have been completely ludicrous to say 20 years earlier. But I think that the 2013 thing, it's funny that you mentioned that. I think we didn't

notice it at the time as much because of Seattle's dominance. Seattle was the one unicorn where, okay, they were shutting everybody down. They were playing this brand of physical football using tall cornerbacks, dominated the middle rounds of the draft. They won the Super Bowl by 35 points. I think that we didn't, as a media, even though I'd written about it a couple of times, I don't think we realized what was happening because Seattle was kind of a distraction, if that makes sense. Yeah, definitely. And I think I look at 2013 more from a roster building standpoint, right, where the schemes are coming in quickly, but the front offices are going, okay, we have all these cost-controlled rookies now. And that's where the rookie quarterback contract become the most

valuable commodity employee. Russell Wilson was making less than the long snapper there. Yeah. And like beyond that, 2013 is important because 2011 and 2012 are when the smartest team started to do this by 2013, even the dumbest team's like, oh yeah, we can do that. Anyway, keep going. Right. Right. So yeah. So you look at what they're doing and even you go into the draft, right? Like I didn't know how to answer the quarterback question when I'm writing this big piece about how the Patriots are going to rebuild and leave February. And a lot of it comes true in March and April. But you go to the draft, you know, they get Mack Jones okay. You know, in the second round, they get a defensive lineman. That was the position they had invested more draft capital into than any other

position aside from safety. So then they go in the middle round. You got reminder of Stevenson. That dude can catch passes. Same with Shane Vereen. Same with James White. Even Damien Harris was a third round pick. You get a lineback related to safety. So that's where they continue to build and believe in themselves. I think it's just a matter of their evaluation of the individual players from people I've talked to is a little bit different. And I think that changes spurred by 2020 is what's now giving them an edge and kind of accelerated this rebuild because they're picking the right guys, but following the right framework that they've been using still for 20 years. Scheme-wise, let's get into what the Patriots are doing to support back.

You can take that anywhere you want, but, you know, the offensive line, I think, had him in a clean pocket over 75% of time on Sunday. We know what that looks like. We know Josh is just at least going to figure something out. But what is different about this team? They're a true run-first team, all that stuff. But what is something we should be talking about more as far as this scheme changes go? I think the best way to look at this is if, you know, and I don't have any kids,

but they have baby-proofed the offense for him like you would baby proof a house. Because, you know, Josh McDaniels is on a heater this season where more than half their games, they're scoring on their opening drive. So you're automatically playing from a lead. You're not asking Mack to mount these large comebacks. Secondly, in Pat Thorner to establish the run had this. Since week four, when they lose to the bucks, the pads have had the high. highest run rate in the league in situation neutral play.

So where they're not trying to play catch up, they're not running the clock out from ahead. So they're leaning on that run game. And part of that is their offensive line has just gotten healthy. So they've tweaked some things in and around there. Isaiah Winhead COVID. He's back. Trent Brown's calf was barking for two months.

That stopped. He's dominating out right tackle. You've got a good line. You're leaning on your run game. And even deeping more into their kind of two-back personnel, which I wrote about this last week, they're zagging offensively where they only trail the Ravens and the Niners in terms of how much they use a fullback.

And that's jumped over this, you know, doubled really over the wind streak. So they're putting more in everybody else asking him to make safe throws, be it screens, outroutes, whatever it might be. And then everyone else has kind of gotten better around him. And he just can't do any wrong. I know I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. You already made the Young Tom Brady thing. But can you kind of game out for me the evolution of Mack Jones and what you think it

will look like, having seen him played Alabama, having seen him now with the Patriots? It's like this offense evolves how as Mac Jones gets better and more comfortable. Yeah, you know, I think the offense is what it is at this point because part of this win streak has been them identifying how they want to play an offense and defense, right, and settling into that and just getting better at it. Whereas, you know, we've talked before about how they treat the first four, six weeks of the season is kind of figuring out what they want to do. I would say next year, though, when he's had a full year in the system, his arm gets a little bit stronger.

You know, Matt Ryan was the most common comparison. I think for the Mac Jones optimist in the draft process. I think that's what it is. It's still going to be a heavy play action passing game. They'll put them in the empty as they did against the Titans. He's ineffective there. But, you know, this is a guy who I think would be a pro bowl quarterback several years moving forward.

Because right now, like we talked about, they don't even have the best kill position talent around him. It's the offensive line in the running game being more. How does this team match up with the bills? Man, this is fun. So there are a lot of weird battlegrounds here, right? but I think you have to start with J.C. Jackson and Stefan Diggs because last year on Monday night football, Stefan Diggs rolled him up and smoked him on national television and a big blowout win for the

bills. And I think right now the Patriots have the best defense against number one wideouts by Dio. So if J.C. can kind of take Diggs away, they can devote more resources to the middle of the field where you've got, you know, a guy who started the season in the practice squad, Miles Bryant, up against Cole Beasley or to help in the run game where the Titans just cashed you for 269. offensively, I think he's going to be a struggle for Mac because, you know, Sean McDermott knows how to defend the past passing game. I'd argue better than anyone. Brady's games against McDermott, actually, he had four touchdowns of five picks and six games against Buffalo right at the end of his Patriots tenure. So they're really going to need to run the ball.

And the trouble, though, with the bills is they are the most unpredictable team in the league and even kind of recent history. So let's just assume they show up. I say take the under. I think this is going to be a physical game, but it's really going to hinge on an outside. matchup with J.C. and Stefan Diggs, and then offensively, how much can Mack figure out? Because if it wasn't for Trayvon or Tradevi's injury, I mean, they might be, you know, held under 10 points, I think, the way they're going into Buffalo. I want you to play armchair psychologist with me, because Lord knows, I like doing it. Bill Belichick lost the best quarterback in history

whatever was 18 months ago. And he's kind of getting his, I don't know, swagger back, whatever you want to call it. How does he view this season? Like, did he come into this season saying, we're just going to take this one year at a time doing the boring Belichick thing? I'm talking about if he got two beers in Bill Belichick, how we do it. Did he kind of say, okay, this is a process, or did he say, I want to win right now because there's a legacy thing, or does not even care about the legacy thing? I mean, you know, Seth Wicker-Shamm has talked about this, where he says he kind of just wants his kids to be set up and there's no real, you know, anti-Bradie ulterior motive here with his coaching. Like, how does Bill Belichick view what's going on right now with his team?

I think they always knew that, you know, they wanted to compete and could compete. It was just going to be a narrower path than in years past, right, where Brady could operate any offense that you wanted, aside from a triple option. And then defensively, Bill could adjust his talent to whatever opponent they were facing. This was going to be a limited quarterback, whether it was Cameron Mac Jones, a run game, and then his defense. I think the defense has exceeded probably even his expectations, especially when you consider Stefan Gilmore's not here anymore. Jonathan Jones has lost for the season. So I think it's not gravy, but things are going as expected because they're playing the way

they wanted to play. And now it's just been they're winning as a result of that because they're not turning the ball over it and having any penalties. So he's, I think, rejuvenated by having Mack here, as is a lot of, as are a lot of people in the building, I think including Josh McDaniels. But, you know, there's a longer term play here where if they don't, you know, make the AFC championship game, I think they're going to. to be okay because they know they're going to at least be in the running now with how things

have gone with Mac and the defense for the next few years. I always like asking Biorit as this question. Give me a player we're not talking about enough. And it doesn't matter if it's someone we never talk about who's pretty good. Doesn't matter if it's someone who we always talk about, we should talk about them as the best player in football. Doesn't matter. Hype somebody up. Yeah. Dante Hightower. I talked to him a month ago. We broke down four plays over the phone and I texted him one just so he could get the right detail before I did this piece. And this dude is just blowing up everything in his path. So when you look at the box score, he's headed for probably the worst season of his career

dating back to maybe his second season. But the things they're asking him to do in the run game are just outright violent. And he is following through and helping what, you know, is a defense that's still finding itself against the run. But he's not getting the credit because he's not getting the interceptions or the sacks of the past breakups. but if you just watch him down to down, I think your shoulder's going to be a little sore

just watching him from the couch because he's blowing up offensive linemen that are 100 pounds heavier and it's really helping them set up everything else that they want to do. Is Josh McDaniels going to get a head coaching job this off season? Because to me, it's a little bit crazy that a Jacksonville wouldn't have called him. It's a little crazy to me that there were so many openings. I understand the Indianapolis part of it and that people were not exactly high on how he performed

in those couple weeks before he bailed. just as far as, you know, reputation-wise. But at some point, his image has been rehabilitated. Like, it just seems, is he the coach in waiting, or is he going to go somewhere? Well, it's funny you mentioned Jacksonville, because I think they might call him back this offseason, right? With, you know, Notre Dame might be calling Urban up. What's funny to me is that there were two coaches who had always talked about Notre Dame as like this pie in the sky dream job. One was John Gruden and one was Urban Meyer.

John Gruden famously used to wake up to the Notre Dame fight song, right, at three in the morning, whatever. That was the big anecdote in every profile. And both of them this year have disgraced themselves to the point that they're just out of the running. And I would include Urban Meyer and that. I shouldn't think Urban Meyer is untouchable for a team like Notre Dame. Like there was a really funny tweet. I talked about this on Rissell a couple weeks ago. I forget what the actual who said it, but someone said after the Urban Meyer bar video, they said,

I've never seen someone go so quickly from the USC job to the Arizona job. And it's like, that's actually what Urban Meyer is in right now. It's like that's, that's the, I don't think it's Notre Dame. I don't think it's, it's Oklahoma. It's like if he goes back to college, he's got to start kind of from the bottom a bit because he might be untouchable, just from a, I don't know, morality standpoint. He's going to make touchdown Jesus crosses arms. Yeah.

Yeah, exactly. You know, it's tough. I think Josh McDaniels, I know he wants another job. And I think he would take one soon. and he's just waiting for the right situation because, as you know, you get fired once in the league, you'll get a second chance unless maybe you're Matt Patricia, but, you know, you've got to make that second chance count. And a lot of that is due to ownership. So I think if you're Josh McDaniels or anyone else, you look at the Jacksonville ownership and the decision they've made, do you really

want to go there? But elsewhere, he's had interviews the last five years running and then includes the year after the whole Colts debacle. So I think he could absolutely use this season as Max's development to erase any doubts that people had about, oh, it was Brady the whole time? And take that ticket and get out of town and find a new job. Where that job is, though, is going to be really dependent on the ownership and the situation because he's still just in his mid-40s, but I think he's absolutely earned one over the last few years and especially this season. Last thing for you, we're talking about the AFC East on this episode and kind of how it's going to go. The Jets and the Dolphins are the two teams that we're not going to talk about on this.

Do you feel like, no, I'm actually going to ask you a question about it? Do you feel like the Patriots ever see those two teams as getting to this level? You know, just the future of that division, is it just going to be Bill's Patriots for like the next five years? I think there's one player who could change Miami's fortune, you know, on the field for the better, off the field, who knows, and could really put Miami up a level and have to Sean Watson. So if he comes to Miami.

Or Russell Wilson or Russell Wilson or Aaron Rogers or any of these guys. It has to, the way that those. franchises have had a couple of missteps. I'm a huge, huge, huge fan of what Miami's done. It's got to be one of those guys who bridges the gap. Definitely. So I think they could see Miami making the leap because I know the respect Belichick has for Brian Flores and everyone should. He's a good coach. And I think he's building the right culture around there. The problem is like we just talked about, the ownership is the big question mark. And I think that's where you have maybe a lack of faith in New England with Stephen Ross. You know, how much can he allow that culture to build out

or make the right decision personnel-wise. So, you know, they're playing hard in Miami. I think that quarterback could help them make that leap. They've obviously got to get their offensive line fix. But the infrastructure from top down in Buffalo, Brandon being down to Shaw McDermott, that's why they're succeeding. They had the right culture in place before they started to win.

Miami's got to get that right. And I don't know how much Deshaun Watson will help that, but obviously on the field, they can make that leap. And in terms of year-to-year consistency, I think it'll be the paths and bills for a long time. I agree. I bet the pats and bills agree, too. And I bet if you got two beers in the Jets, they would agree to. I don't know about the dolphins.

I don't know about the dolphins. Andrew Callahan, beat writer, Boston Herald, New England Patriots. Thanks so much, buddy. Thanks, Ben. All right, joined now by Joe Biscali. He's a staff writer at The Athletic. He covers the Buffalo Bills. What's going on, buddy?

Not too much, Kevin. I'm honestly just honored to be speaking to the guy that brought back the old school Orlando Magic song. So this is a huge honor for me for my professional career right now. Are there any old school bills songs we need to bring back? they've been using the same one. It's the shout song. They've been using it for years and years and years and years,

and it's never going away anytime soon. I didn't know. I was actually watching a video of Pete Carroll this morning for something else. And he was talking about how win forever, the term win forever that he uses all the time, came from being in the Bill Stadium and seeing them make four straight Super Bowls. And he, this was, I guess, in the 90s, you saw it. And he was like, he said to himself, wow, they win forever.

And then he decided that. that he was going to adopt this. So the bills, they launched the USC dynasty. They launched the Seahawks. So there you go. If they can't win a Super Bowl on their own, they at least encourage Pete Carroll to win his own. Yes, yeah.

They can take that and put a random little mark, a banner, if they can hang it from anywhere in that windy stadium. There's a little plaque that says inspired Pete Carroll to win forever. Inspired Pete Carroll and USC. I was looking, it was a video from like seven years ago. And I was trying to find a quote about USC because I was doing a little. a Lincoln Riley thing and instead I found just a random bills tidbit. So we have you on because we're trying to figure out what's going on in the

AFC East and kind of how the AFC East explains football. There's one inconsistent team. There's one team that seems to be on the rise and then there's two teams that, I don't know, are a little bit lost. And I want to start here. The inconsistency over the past couple of weeks has been worrying and confusing to everybody, I think. I think that if you go down and lose in Jacksonville,

that in and of itself is some inconsistency. And then you add in getting the brakes beat off them by the Titans, and I get into a zone where I don't really know what's going on with the Buffalo Bills. Help me understand. Well, it's a long conversation for sure, because I think what they've kind of met is like this little area of where they are now the hunted team, and they've been used to being this plucky underdog. and no one believing in them, all of that good stuff.

Like every silly, corny sportsy thing you could think of applies to the Buffalo Bills because they legitimately relish being disrespected and everything like that. But when they're not the bottom guys, then they haven't really found that consistency. Like their biggest win to date has been when they've blown out the Kansas City Chiefs. And it was a week where they were the underdog. So every other time where they were kind of the hunted or weren't playing against a backup quarterback or anything like that, they haven't really done much of anything. And they've been beaten, quite honestly. So that's a big part of it.

And then you look at some of the inconsistency with the offense, whether it be, you know, trying to figure out what the heck their run game is and basically switching up some run blocking principles in season, trying to figure out different little. elements of who should be on the field, whether it be Singletary, Zach Moss, Matt Breda, most recently. And then they've had to try and really undercut a couple of different defensive philosophies used against them, like Cover 2 Shell was used against Jacksonville. And that really threw them for a loop because they had some backup offensive linemen in there. They have had to overcome Cover Zero throughout the season. So all these little different things have added up to it. And the fact that Josh Allen hasn't been quite as sharp as he was last year,

I think it leads to the inconsistency that we see today. I want to talk about the Josh Allen thing, but specifically when you mentioned the cover zero, the cover two shell, all that stuff, what do we know? Josh Allen's in his fourth year. He's changed dramatically year to year, so it's hard to say, okay, this is what works against Josh Allen. But painting with broad strokes, what works against Josh Allen?

Well, I think if you are a defense that does well, with containing the edge and keeping him pinned in. I think that is going to be something that takes away his fastball, which is, you know, just like a lot the same with Patrick Mahomes, where if he gets outside the pocket and he's able to freelance a little bit, he has a howitzer for an arm where he can fit it into a really stupidly small spot. And so that, I think, has had some success. I think the Colts did that.

And that certainly helped them really keep the Bill's offense on their heels and not really be able to establish much of anything or finish drives. So I think for him, he can beat that. And this is why the bills have invested so heavily in the guy, because you will see one thing that just crushes his soul one week. And then the next week, it's like, snap of fingers, it's fixed, no problem. I mean, cover zero gave him a heck of a problem for the longest time in his second year. And then all of a sudden he fixed it in his third year.

And then it was, oh, hey, play heavy zone against this guy. And then he crushed that. And it's, oh, heavy man against this guy. Crush that. So it's just, he's unlike any quarterback that I've covered in Buffalo, and that's really not saying much because I've covered the lakes of Brentwoods. And let's see, who else? Thad Lewis, you know, there's a lot of examples.

Nathan Peterman? Nathan Peterman was there. Oh, the Peterman explosion in L.A. I will never forget that in my life. Anyway. No, no, we need to take a detour here. Give me something I've never heard about Nathan Peterman and that and that experience because I've never said anything like it and what was amazing to me was and this has never happened before.

NFL players really dislike the idea of Nathan Peterman playing a football game. Like I don't know what about it offended them. But like I remember I tweeted something about Nathan Peterman. I'm getting likes from like all these random Seahawks players and stuff. And I'm just like, what happened? Why are so many people mad at Nathan Peterman? What was it like to have a front row siege of that? It was amazing because it was still in the old school before the Chargers had SoFi.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It was in that soccer stadium and just watching his brain basically just, it's like that little emoji where the wind comes out from the top. He, I think the thing that I'll remember is that the first interception wasn't really his fault. Patrick DeMarco basically flubbed a catch and it went right into a defender's hands. But from there, goodness me, it was every single throw seemed like it was about to get picked off. And Kelvin Benjamin was a starting receiver in that game. Like he just, he did not have, it didn't really have the backing of the team. I don't think because Tyrod was still the guy there and they just got their

doors blown off by New Orleans the week before. So McDermott made a switch. Didn't work out. Yeah. So I think I think that that is going to be deserving of a deep dive before too long. I completely agree with you. I mean, it was just stunning. And again, like, it's not Nathan Peterman's fault. And again, it shows you, and it's something I've talked about a million times, but it shows you the difference. Like, Nathan Peterman's in the sweet spot where he's good enough to be in the NFL,

but he's also bad enough to be the worst player I've ever seen play football, right? And like, this is a guy who put Clemson in hell when they played in college, right? I mean, like, this, it is, Nathan Peterman's existence to me is fascinating. But anyway, we'll get off that and get back into Josh Allen. So you talked about how he wasn't, he isn't his 2020 form. He already has as many interceptions as he had last year,

but he's still pretty good. Is this kind of what you expected? I mean, for me, I had a tough time wrapping my head around the concept of Josh Allen regression, because I don't know what that looks like, because he was wildly inconsistent. He was the whole Josh Allen experience in 2018 and 2019. and then in 2020 he was almost perfect.

And I just splitting the difference in those two things, to me, that broke my brain, right? I'm in the Peterman thing here. I'm just, I don't know what I'm looking at. And that to me is why I found it so fascinating. And a lot of that has to do, frankly, you know, when you talk to Brandon Bean and Sean McDermott, something you've done far more than me, a lot of it has to do with how they built around him, the team. I mean, I think that a lot of Josh Allen's early struggles were a mixture of his own inconsistency,

but also the talent around him and the line. And Brandon Bean told me a couple months ago that they think their lucky stars. Allen even survived 2018 because of the line before they went out and started to improve it. So Josh Allen's performance in 2021 is what? It is, I think the term regression is, it's honestly something that we should all consider. When you look at how he has developed into this season, It hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year, but that's hard to replicate last year. And I think the term regression often has a negative connotation.

But like Josh Allen's season last year was so ridiculous on so many different levels. You saw his intermediate accuracy go up like 20% last year. You saw his deep ball accuracy go up. And sure, some of that has to do with a better line and better receivers and Stefan Diggs as well. but I mean to see him go from point A to point B from 19 to 20 was ridiculous. And that's why I even wrote beginning of the season. Like it's fair to expect some sort of regression. And it doesn't have to be a negative thing because it's just so hard to go year to year with all of the injury look that they had last year at receiver quarterback and with their offensive line.

And certainly how teams, they kind of caught him off guard last year. And now this year they're, you know, game planning weeks in advance, months in advance for Josh Allen to figure out what to do to stop this guy. So I think the term regression is acceptable in this case. But I think there is opportunity for them to be better than what they have been. And they've still been a pretty good offense this year. It's just they can crush opponents if they start hitting on all cylinders. And that's what they're kind of banking on here moving forward.

It's interesting to me because when I talked to. to be in July and August, he said the reason that they drafted two pass rushers with the first two picks was because they didn't get enough pass rush against Kansas City. And I kind of felt, and I'm sure you felt the same way, that the Kansas City lost to them was pretty much all they were thinking about

as far as team building this off season. Now all of a sudden they have to worry about the New England Patriots who they play on Monday night. Do you think they're surprised by the timetable and how quickly the Patriots got there to become their main threat? Yeah, I think they are. I mean, it's hard. not to be. I mean, the Patriots went out. They spent a bunch of money, but I don't think they expected

the offense to be as efficient as it has been with a rookie quarterback. And I'm sure some of it has to do with the Patriots schedule and what they've gone up against recently. And now, you know, McDermott has a pretty sterling record against rookie quarterback. So we'll see how they try to defend Mac Jones in this upcoming Monday night game. But I think it has caught them by surprise. to where they have to kind of fight for their life in the AFC East. But to a certain degree, though, I think it also, they might be somewhat happy about it. And I say that with a question mark at the end just because of what I touched on right at the beginning.

This is a roster that thrives on being an underdog. And I hate it. I hate it because it's so corny, but it is so freaking true out of this locker room. And any time that they have it, they just come out with a strong answer. you know, people started to think poorly about them heading into that New Orleans game. You know, New Orleans didn't really have much of anything on offense, but, you know, they came in, they dominated offensively, defensively, and they just had a full-scale victory. So I think for them, they don't want to be in this position, but they like it because it'll help

them keep their edge. And I think that's the silver lining to this whole thing, because if they can win the AFC East and get to the dance with at least one home playoff game. They feel like, I would have to think they feel like this AFC is so completely up in the air that anybody could come away with it, including them. So the team building part of this is interesting to me because I think that they viewed this as kind of a three to four year build. And I think that even Josh Allen said this to me that, okay, get the line down, get the weapons down, it's go time.

Going forward now, they had the pass rush to Greg Russo. Looks good. I really like Greg Russoe. He opted out at Miami, but I really like him. He could play anywhere. Going forward, this team needs to focus on what from a team building standpoint? I think they need to focus on getting younger at receiver and continuing their fastball. Because right now they've got Emmanuel Sanders who's given them about 80, 85% of snaps. They like Gabriel Davis, who's probably going to end up being a starting X or Z receiver for them, whichever one they decide on next year. But at slot receiver, which is,

a humongous spot on their offense. Cole Beasley is going to be 33 next year and they can easily get out of his contract if they want to. He also has looked a step slower this year, if we're being honest. And the same thing kind of happened with John Brown last year and they moved on from John Brown. So we'll see if they, and then you have all the other stuff with Cole. I was waiting for that. I was waiting. What other stuff? Yeah. What's going on Cole Beasley? You know, the on Twitter, off Twitter. Sure. COVID conspiracy. Cole Beasley's been. the news? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

It was, you know, thankfully he got off Twitter, so that way we didn't have to think about that anymore. But you never know. He couldn't be back on. Yeah, I think that has to be a part of the discussion. And I think just growing and moving towards the future with that offense, because, you know, their defense, you know it as well as I do. Defense is so hard to predict from one year to the next.

And the only predictable asset is your offense and continuing that along with your $252 million dollar quarterback and Josh Allen, you need to provide him with all the options. I know some people will think, oh, get a guard, get a center for the future. I mean, they're good at center for now. They can get by at guard. They've shown that before. Go get yourself some wide receivers. And, hey, I mean, if you want to look at the defensive side, cornerback right now looks

like something that they're going to need to address because they are razor thin, even with Tredavius White. And now without him, it could be a problem moving forward. Andrew Callahan this question because I like asking it when guys really no teams. Give us a guy we're not talking about enough in either direction. Like if there's a guy who's really kind of struggling this year that we're not talking about enough or there's a guy who's just playing out of his mind right now that's getting no recognition, who are we hyping up right now? I think it's been kind of interesting, but Spencer Brown, the third round pick out of Northern Iowa. He, to me, is someone that I did not expect to be a part of the starting picture. And he is now effective. indispencible to their offensive line. They've had it. They've been without him the last three or four weeks. He has come in, become the starting right tackle. He's looked great. Super athletic. He plays with an edge, which they love. He mocked Desmond King for being short, which is a video that went viral a few weeks ago. Yep. He, he has allowed them to get better in two different spots at right tackle because

Darrell Williams, who they signed and thought they were going to be the starting right tackle. for this year and maybe even next year, he stunk up the joint at right tackle this year, just hasn't moved well. They moved him inside to right guard. It's turned his season around. Spencer Brown has been awesome at right tackle, and then it's allowed the left guard spot, John Feliciano, to get settled in when he's healthy. So I think he's probably the guy. I think there's other guys like Ed Oliver, I think, is coming into his own this year, but I think he's always been good. Gabriel Davis is someone who I think needs more time, but he's not getting it right now. So I think Spencer Brown's the answer to this one. interesting all right handicap the a fc for me um it's the last thing here um again we talked about

the chiefs as the the target and everybody's back um the ravens are currently the one seed the patriots are on a timetable that is much is so much more accelerated than we thought um there's just a lot here right now um where do you think the bill stack up within that that hierarchy I think they and the chiefs are the top two teams right now. I think the chiefs are probably better than the bills at this moment. I think the Patriots like you, it seems accelerated, but I still want to see them beat a team who is without their starting running back and both their starting receivers like Tennessee was last week.

Their defense is legit, no doubt, and I can't wait to watch film on the Patriots this week to see what their offense is all about. but I want to see if that Patriots offense can go step for step with the Bill's offense. And if they can't, then we're going to see them kind of drip back in that wild card spot. So I think the Chiefs to me, it looks like they've turned things around defensively. Their offensive line has been playing much better. It is not the same Chief's team than what played the Bill.

So again, the twisted sister of the bills and how they shape their entire offseason, like you pointed out, and it was very right to do so, the bills are probably going, probably going, to need someone else to beat Kansas City or to do it themselves to get to the Super Bowl this year. I was going to say when you mentioned the Patriots that we'll find out on Monday night. But what's going to happen is we'll find something on a Monday night. And then there'll be three more weeks where everything we saw on Monday night gets reversed. Yeah, then the bills will lose to Carolina. Yeah, exactly.

Exactly. Exactly. So we'll see something on Monday night. I just don't know what it's going to be. Joe Biscali, read him at The Athletic. He covers the Buffalo Bills. He has a great job. Thanks for stopping by, buddy.

Thanks, Kevin. Appreciate you. Okay, this has been the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast. Network. Next up on this feed is Nora and Mallory, one of my favorite shows of the weekend. And on Friday, Ben Solac, Stephen Ruiz, and Kalin Jones will preview all of the weekend's action. Thank you to Chris Sutton for his production help with additional production supervision by Arjuna Ram Kapal.