The Ringer NFL Show - How Injuries Affect Betting, Going for Two, and the Best 0-2 Teams | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: September 23, 2020

Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon break down the injury-riddled Week 2 and how critical setbacks affect your bets (2:10). Then, they take on the Dallas-Atlanta going-for-two conundrum (10:52), plus the 0-2 and 2-0 teams that they are the most and least confident in (18:58). The two discuss a disheveled Bill Belichick (29:02) and, finally, Warren rips into the Vikings-Jets game and coach Adam Gase (42:33). Hosts: Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I'm Chris Vernon, and join as he does every week is Warren Sharp. Hey, Warren. What is up, Chris? I saw this week. This weekend, one of the biggest stories is not an NFL story. You were compared to. to the very handsome Gordon Hayward. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right about that.

It was an unseemly comparison. It did look a little similar. I will give them that. When did you get the mustache, by the way? Well, if we're divulging personal details here, I don't think I shaved. I don't think I've gone without some type of facial hair since I got married. And that's probably true for a lot of guys, actually. So before it was like some form of beards and various different things.

things and I went straight mustache probably a few years ago. I don't even remember the exact date. What would be the last year that I could find a picture of Warren Sharp with no facial hair? Dude, I used to look really good without facial hair. I used to, it was on point, but it's definitely more difficult to keep up with. That's the factor in switching from it. And plus, now I don't really have nearly as much time to work out and exercise and that sort of thing. It's a signature, though. You've got a signature. I don't think I can get rid of it at this point.

You can't. I agree with you. All right, let's get into what happened during the NFL week. Week number two. And unfortunately, the stories was injuries. Now, you predicted this going in that we could see a lot of injuries, especially given the lack of preparation for this season. And so I've got to wonder, a loud, Warren,

do you think after we saw this mass amount of injuries, that took place in week number two. Is this going to be an ongoing trend where people's fantasy teams and NFL teams are just ravaged by injury? Or is this a beginning of the season trend in your mind? Well, it's a little bit of both columns because it's going to spill out for another couple of weeks.

Look, specifically with ACL injuries, this is a loading type of an injury. These are injuries where they typically happen early on in camps. I've researched this for several years. read a lot of medical reports that they've done detailed studies and when these things are occurring. And most of the time that these will occur early on in training camp when players' bodies are just getting back up to speed, to, they're trying to go from zero to 90, basically.

They're trying to go to peak performance very quickly. And your bodies, your muscles seem like they want to do things. But the actual ligaments and things that hold your body together have not done that for a while and aren't built to do that. And so that's why we tend to see some of these things early on as the body is getting more finely tuned for these types of things. It does speak to the fact that we had an offseason unlike any other. And these players needed to spend more time conditioning, exercising, getting in game ready shape. Obviously, this is going to be difficult for them to do.

But that's why we're seeing a lot of them right now. And it's also why I don't think it's going away for the next couple of weeks. It's not going to be for another week or two. I fear that week three is going to still be bad. And you're absolutely right. We talked about that on this ringer show before the season even started about my concerns for injuries after week one. And especially after week two, we were going to see these injuries early on this season. And unfortunately, I wish that was one thing I was wrong about.

But we are seeing that certainly. I've wondered, are the injuries way up or do we know? Or is this just, it's huge. huge names. It's Vaughn Miller. It's Christian McCaffrey. It's Devante Adams. It's, I mean, all kinds of guys. So the huge names are going to grab the headlines and obviously impact the way people view these games and these teams and their fantasy teams, etc. Gambling, all across the board. Is it because we have so many huge names that we are noticing it more or are there actually a lot more injuries. There are more injuries right now. Now, I've seen studies done where it says, well,

up through week two compared to other seasons, this season has fewer ACL tears, but they're factoring in all the preseason tears as well in that in that time span. I believe that like last week was probably a high for the league in week two, just looking at week two. But it is the big names and that is what draws attention. And a lot of people will ask about which injuries matter the most and which players are most impacted and how does this affect sports betting and what's the big deal from that perspective. And so my take on that is some people have tried to put in how much each quarterback is worth, right?

Oh, well, if injury happens to Tom Brady, he's worth X points on the line. And if an injury happens to this other guy, he's worth Y points on the line. I don't buy into that. I've never bought into that. And here's why. Because every single week, it depends who your opponent is and what the game plan is going to be for that opponent. That is a factor in how much that quarterback who's not there is worth. In addition to who your backup is, the next man up.

So that factors into it as well. But if we're playing an opponent that we should have the lead and we can run the ball more, then the quarterback's not worth as much. If you're an underdog and you're going to have to score points and pass the ball to win, then that quarterback is going to be worth more in that particular game. But the quarterbacks are obviously worth the most. So injuries of the quarterbacks factor in most from a sports betting and a game and therefore a game outcome standpoint.

So it doesn't just have to be a sports betting discussion. This is like how much does it impact a team because sports betting correlates with the final impact of a team? And the main focus for me, apart from quarterbacks, is injuries to critical players that change scheme. So number one is injuries to quarterbacks. Number two is key injuries that's going to change your scheme. So a guy that this is completely unreplaceable that's going to make you have to call a different

style of defense like a Joey Bosa or offensively like a George Kittle injury or Devante Adams to an extent because he's such a big time number one and there's no real other number ones that could be elevated in Green Bay because they just don't have that depth of quality receiving talent or defensively like this is not an issue this week. but in the past when, for example, Darius Slay went out for the Detroit Lions, he was such a key cog and all the other DBs didn't hold a candle to what he was doing that it majorly affected the Lions defense. So those are the key ones.

And then number three is cluster injuries. So we've seen that already this season, you know, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the right side of their offensive line. If you have multiple injuries at the same position and you're having a backup and then a backup of a backup at times playing different positions alongside another backup. So sides of offensive lines, secondaries, things of that nature, defensive lines. Like those are bigger deals. Like those are compounding factors.

So while one guy might be worth X and another guy might be worth Y, when you compound the two together, they're definitely worth more than they are individually. For me, from a betting perspective, Chris, you talked about Christian McCaffrey. I actually don't really mind it. Like I love Christian McCaffrey. So maybe he's not the most perfect example here because he does a lot in the passing game. but if you take a number one running back whose primary job is to run the football and you take them out of the game, a lot of people overreact to that from a game outcome standpoint.

Oh, my God, they have no chance of winning this game. This best running back is out. The reality is a lot of times for just a singular game or two that the number two running back can step up and assume X percentage of that production. It's not going to be necessarily 100% because he's not as talented of a player. But the other factor is you may not be calling quite as many runs. So you're going to be calling more passes. And passes inherently are more efficient than our run plays to begin with.

So you're switching a little bit more balance towards the more efficient types of plays. And your runs may be slightly less efficient, but you're calling fewer of them. So overall, it may not have as big of an impact on the outcome of the game. And I tend to like to bet on underdogs when a starting running back goes down for that team because I assume that the team is going to throw the football a little bit more and be a little bit more aggressive from a passing perspective. It's fascinating what you say, and I think about an exact instance where this happened last week. You mentioned McCaffrey, and maybe he's a poor example simple because he's got a million catches.

But they brought in that kid Mike Davis, and he caught the ball eight times after McCaffrey went out. They put in their backup running back and he caught it eight times, and you juxtapose that versus is probably what you're talking about more specifically is a Barclay injury. Sequan Barclay is primarily a running back. And I think people look at him and those guys are probably went one and two in 99% of fantasy drafts. But people look at that and they go, oh, the Giants already sucked and now they lost Seyquan Barclay. You say you would look at that and say, I don't think that this is going to affect them maybe in the way that many people project. when they see Seyquan Barclay is out for the season.

Yeah, I mean, if you're looking at the analytics, you know that Sequin Barclay hasn't exactly been tearing it up. He's got a great reputation. But in this offense, thus far, he hasn't had a ton of success. Now, they did play Steelers Week 1. They have a very good run defense, etc., etc. That said, I think this offense can still be semi-productive even without him. And if the linemaker is going to overvalue him

or the public is going to bet opposite of the Giants, just because they don't have Sequin Barclay and they think it's such a massive injury, these are opportunities where you can look to go the other way. Let's talk about something that took place over the weekend. It happened to the team that I root for, which is the Dallas Cowboys. And they were down by 15. And this has been something I've commented on Twitter because I'm not a fan of it. Yet I do understand the analytical side of this.

They went for two down by nine points. So they were down 15. They scored. And then they have this choice to go for two or kick. the extra point. And Mike McCarthy decides to go for two there. Therefore, they are down by nine instead of down by eight with the remaining time left in the game. I think it was like five minutes or so. Where do you fall on this? And look, I'll present at the beginning. As a Cowboys fan, I was mad about it. And here's why. Because I have read all of the articles. I understand the

theory in going for too early. On the other hand, to me, I look at it and say, this is one of those where the numbers don't bear out what human beings feel. And I look at it and say, I think if you're down by eight, your defense is amped up to go get that stop because they're still in the game in their mind. I think being down nine is demoralizing. And there's no number that can quantify that, but I'm going to bet that you do not feel the same way on this. No, well, look, I think this is great because you're approaching it from a totally different perspective. So, look, this is not even really that deep in an analytics perspective.

This is just a game theory perspective. And so to break it down to the simplest manner possible to relate to a lot of people, I'll put it out there like this. Whether you're a guy or a girl or a girl, this could still apply to you. Okay, but I'm going to use it from a guy's perspective. You got homecoming coming up, right? You know you want to take a girl to the homecoming dance. Are you going to ask that girl out early so that in case she says, no, you can find another date

to go to the dance with? Are you going to wait till the last second to ask the girl that you want? And then if she ended up already agreeing to go with someone else, you're S.O.L. You're screwed. And now you maybe don't even go to the dance because you missed your opportunity to go with the girl that you wanted to, right? So that's the easiest way for me to liken this because it has nothing really to do with analytics. In my opinion, when you're down 15 points and you score, you know you need a two-point

conversion. The two-point conversion mathematically is more difficult to convert than is kicking the extra point. You could still miss the extra point, but it's harder to go for two. You want to do the hardest thing first so that you know what has to happen the rest of the game. And it's just a game theory type discussion. No, because I don't buy this analogy. The analogy then would be, in my estimation, all right, so say this girl I want to go to homecoming with. I ask her, but I know if she says no, I'm going to need a friggin miracle. Like, I'm not going to be able to patch it together at the end. I'm going to need a miracle if she says no at the end. Not, to me, it's not a zero-sum game.

If she says no, then I've just got time to get another girl. I'm looking at it where if she says no, all right, I still got a chance to get a date, but it's a mega long shot for me to get a date to this homecoming. And here's the thing. This is the thing. The only reason that you would wait to ask her until closer to the dance is if you think she's more likely to say yes at that point. That is literally the only reason why you would do it.

I know guys like play all this stuff out in their minds. and try to figure out, well, when should I call her? Like, okay, call her on the second day, call her on the third day. The reason that you're doing that is because you're trying to figure out when is it going to resonate the best, when is it going to be the best moment? So if you actually think that you're going to have a better chance to convert the two-point conversion later in the game against that defense, for whatever reason, let's pretend that you see the defense wearing down and you think you're going to have a better chance of scoring

the two points later than you are at this very moment. or if you can see into the future and you know that their top cornerback is going to get hurt. And so you'll have a better chance of converting the two-point conversion later. Then, okay, I understand if you want to go for it later because mathematically you have data that shows this particular team, it's easier to convert two points on them later in the game. Based on that information, you can make that decision. Other than that, you should be trying to win the game in the most obvious manner possible. And I also don't buy the theory and we can move out after this.

well, I'll let you get one more jab in at me on this one, but I don't buy the theory that your defense is going to play harder down eight than down nine. Down nine, you know that you have to get two possessions. You're going to play just as hard. I don't buy the theory like, oh, we think the game is lost and we don't care about it anymore. That, that to me is nonsense. And the other thing that I think people aren't waiting into the decision as much is the offensive play caller and what they're going to do in a situation. If they think it's a one score game, they're going to call it a certain way. If they think it's a two-score game, they might get even more conservative here, thinking that they have the bigger edge and they don't have to do nearly as much. And they could just punt the ball and rely on their defense multiple times because this is not going to be easy for the offense to score.

So from that, it's like a psychological warfare going on here from like trying to think what the defense might think and trying to think what the opposing offense might think. The bottom line is you want to know what you're working with as early as possible, in my opinion. And it really doesn't have a lot to do with analytics. it just has to do with game theory. You know what I thought was fascinating about all this, too, as a fan, is I'm watching that game with my son and my father. And earlier in the game, when Atlanta's beating the crap out of the Cowboys, they went up 26 to 7.

And they went for two at that moment. And they didn't get it. And I said, I bet you that comes back to haunt them. And sure enough, they ended up losing by one. So I want to go back. No one has mentioned that at all. I have not seen anyone mention it. They ended up losing the game by one point.

Is that the right call when you're up 26 to 7 or 26 to 7 at that point? And they decided to go for two instead of just kicking the extra point and going up 20. There are certain times in the game when I am more in favor for going to. I don't have the math right now at my fingertips to know in that particular situation if it was the smart thing to do or not. but what I can tell you is that what quarter was this? This was in the second quarter. They would have gone up 20 and instead they went up 19. The score ended up.

They ended up at whatever it was. It was 26 to 7 so they could have kicked it. They tried to get to 28 instead of just getting to 27. And they lost 40 to 39. Yeah, at that point I don't know that getting to 28 is the magic number. I do think in general more teams should be going for two, however, more often, just because of the percentages. But I don't necessarily think that going up exactly by score of 28 to 7 is magic to

help ensure that you're definitely going to win the game. Well, look, either way, the Falcons are bozos, no matter what. Now, you can slice it any kind of way. I'm just going to imagine they did the wrong thing. Well, I could, we would have to record it, Chris, a whole other podcast on me talking about Dan Quinn because it is just so disappointing. This is a defensive-minded coach. And I'm not going to say a whole lot more.

than that, but this defense has been nothing since he got there. The reason that they did awesome in 2017 and went to the Super Bowl was Kyle Shanahan and how this offense was performing. And I don't know how many ways that you can save your job, you know, promoting this defensive coordinator and saying you're going to call plays and then it's not working out. So you promote somebody else and they call plays better than you. So now you get to keep your head coaching job. And now you're blowing leads and leads. And like I just, you know, at some point, enough is enough. But let's move on. All right. Let's get to the 11 teams that have started 0 and 2. And which of these teams have the best chance in your mind of getting it together?

We'll start with the AFC. Miami, the Jets, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver. Those are our AFC teams that are 0 and 2. Are there any of those that you believe in getting it back together and we look up at the end and we say, despite starting 0 and 2, here they are with a wildcard bid or maybe even a division. win. Well, there's no doubt of those teams, and we're going to talk about the Jets later, but of those teams, the most talented is Houston. So you would logically think that they're probably

the obvious choice here. The tough part for them is that they, although they have played the number one most difficult schedule in the NFL today, think about their opponents. They played Baltimore last week and the chiefs the week before. These are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Well, they have the Steelers this week, right? I mean, like, good God. They, they still, I project them right now as we sit here and I do a lot of, and this is going to be fun on your show because we're going to be able to talk a lot about strength of schedule, which is something I don't think a lot of people incorporate in season. And so the listeners are going to get a good opportunity to hear some of these great nuggets. But I projected Texans to still face the number four most

difficult schedule the rest of the way. So even though they've played the hardest schedule year to date, they're going to play the number four most difficult moving forward. And like you said, they've just faced a litany. And this is one of the reasons the odds makers put them at only seven and a half wins, which is much lower than what it have been in years past. I'm really intrigued to see how the Cincinnati Bengals develop. I was really impressed by Zach Taylor's offense and Joe Burroughs performance on Thursday. We talked about this on the last week show how difficult it is to make adjustments from a Sunday game to a Thursday game.

You can't really incorporate a lot more. You can't really do a lot more. But Zach Taylor made a number of changes. This offense looked significantly better against the Brown's defense than they did against the Chargers defense the prior week. And I was really impressed by some of those adjustments that they made there. Yeah. Nice under that I liked, huh?

It went over by like a thousand points. Come on. I was like, hey, short week. How are these teams getting to like six, seven touchdowns? Oh, my goodness. It became a free-for-all. The guy threw it 61 times. Yeah, that was a, I will tell you, that was a very late, very sharp move to the over in

that game. I know I was sharing a ticket on that game with the crew before our Friday pod. So yeah, that was that was a very late move to the over, but obviously the winning side very strongly. How about the NFC? We got Philly, the Giants, Minnesota, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, those are the teams that have started O&2. Which of those has the best chance at getting it together? Well, it's the same thing that we've discussed in the past, you know, with the AFC. And that's, You look at a team like the Eagles. I think that they clearly are the most talented of that group. But I project them to face the number two most difficult schedule the rest of the season,

including the number one most difficult schedule of past defenses and run defenses. So it does not get any easier for the Philadelphia Eagles. I think that's going to be stunning to people, Warren, because they play in the NFC East, which is horrible. Well, Washington's done really well from a run defense perspective. A lot of their non-division opponents are really good defensively. And it's going to be a big time challenge for them. They've played the number six most difficult schedule to date. Of the other teams that we're talking about, obviously you've got, you know, Carolina's rebuilding. And Minnesota, look,

Minnesota is in that group. And I pounded the table harder against Minnesota before the season then I've pounded the table for any team to bet the under. We faded, you know, like doing all the work in the offseason, writing my book, understanding the way this team was being built, understanding what Mike Zimmer was trying to do with it. I knew I hated Minnesota. I knew that it was going to be difficult for them to incorporate all these new draft picks. I knew rebuilding and overhauling a defense this season was going to be terrible. And of course, the results bear that out.

But the point is from a gambling perspective, you have to put in the work. figure out what you what you are convicted of and then try to bet it as many ways as possible. So the season is very short, guys. Like there is only 17 weeks in the regular season. We've already got two of them down. You have to try to capitalize on any betting opportunities that you see and adjust your process moving forward to try to incorporate more data and get smarter as the season progresses so that you continue to make intelligent wagers.

But bet on yourself that you're putting in the work and the research. So like for the Vikings, I took them under in their win total. I bet them not to make the playoffs. I bet against them in week one. And I bet against them multiple ways in week two. The pedal does not come off the metal. I'm not saying keep fading them all the way through the rest of the season. But, you know, they're definitely the team that I think is most surprising to a lot of people that they started off.

Oh, and two. But to me, it's not that surprising at all. I want to ask you because I know you're a huge Frank Reich fan. And I heard somebody opine earlier this week that. we are now seeing that Carson Wentz is a Frank Wright creation. Do you buy that? No, no, I don't. I think, I mean, look, Carson, when they won the Super Bowl, I believe it was that season, he was absolutely absurd on third down. Their efficiency on third down in terms of moving the sticks and converting on these third and long yards to go is like, how the hell does this

team keep converting these third downs? It almost built like a little bit of aggression for him, like an over-eagerness for him. And now I feel like, well, in fairness, that was Frank Reich, though, Warren. Like, he was there when they won the Super Bowl. No, he was there. But what I'm saying is that right now, Carson is trying to do too much on any down. He thinks he can do everything on every down. Instead of fitting into the offense a little bit more and understanding flow and situation, there's just far too many times, the two things that I see from Carson, far too many times where, like, it's first and ten. Let's look at the. Rams game. It's first and 10. You just forced a punt from the Rams starting the second half. I think you were down

21 to 16. You were down much bigger than this in the first half. You're driving your first drive of the second half. You've made it all the way to the Rams 21 yard line. And it's first and 10. And you force the ball into double coverage in the end zone to J.J. Arthega White side. There is absolutely no reason that you have to make that throw at that point in time. Understand the situation that you're in and make sure that you are not mistakes at that point. The other things that I see him do is fumble the ball in the pocket by trying to do too much, trying to break free and make some things happen. So I think in some cases, what you're saying, from what I saw him do in 2017, that was successful on these third downs, maybe spilling out to more plays in 2020, like it's happening more frequently in other downs,

where he's just trying to do a little bit too much. In 2017, he was forced to do that because it was third in 10, third and nine, and they were being more aggressive and conversive. And hurting these plays and now it's spilling out. But I really think this offense, the talent that they have, look, they've gotten beat up on the offensive line, but the talent that they have here and on both sides of the ball is good enough for this team to get back on track. It will not be easy because of the schedule and because of some of the injuries that they've sustained, particularly to the offensive line. But this is absolutely a team that should be able to get things back on track. All right. So we talked about the teams that started 0-2 that we thought could get it back together.

How about two and no teams and that are, I don't want to say fraudulent, but that we believe in the least. We'll start with the AFC. Here's our two and O's. Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Kansas City, Las Vegas. That's what we got. So we got six teams in the AFC that have all started two and O. Which of those do you believe in the least? Well, for me, you're obviously looking at in terms of moving forward.

Buffalo and Tennessee, I would say are the. two teams that would jump to the front of my mind because they face the number five and number six most difficult schedules of opponents the rest of the season. So these are teams that are going to play some very difficult opponents. We know Buffalo looked outstanding. And I love what Brian Dayball is doing. We're going to talk about him in a moment. But I have concerns about their upcoming schedule. We know the teams that they beat so far this season. They beat the dolphins and they beat the Jets, right? It's not like we're talking about the four horsemen of the apocalypse or anything here. We're talking about some really bad teams from the AFC East.

Tennessee's been getting by, you know, these victories by the skin of their teeth. They should have won by more in Denver, week one, when they just kept missing all these kicks. Thank God he made the kick at the end because I was worried about their kicker. If you missed that kick from just a physical standpoint, I wanted him to make that just rooting for humanity there. But Las Vegas, I would say, if we're going to say, I think Buffalo and Tennessee are more talented than the Raiders. But the Raiders play the third easiest schedule of opponents the rest of the season. So from that perspective, they do have a very easy path compared to those other two teams. But I think they're the worst team, if that makes any sense.

I think the Raiders, I just don't have conviction about Derek Carr. He put on a brilliant performance on Monday night, just completely carving up that Saints defense. But he still lacks like the it factor in terms of being able to pull the trigger, make the big time throws in the big time situations. I was doing great underneath. All they were doing was throwing to their tight end and kudos to John Gruden for dialing up those mismatches and just not letting his foot off the gas

and keep calling plays to Waller and just keep repeating it over and over and over. But that's not going to work against every single opponent. It's going to be really interesting to see him take on a very disheveled Bill Belichick this week. And I do want to mention about that. The people are tweeting out today, the picture of Bill Belichick looking like a homeless

bum who fished a subway sandwich out of the trash bin outside of Patriot Stadium. But in my opinion, this is exactly what you want your coach to look like. After a win or a loss, it's freaking Wednesday morning. Okay. I want my coach to have not left the facility, if so, very little sleep. I want him to be sustaining his life on vending machine snacks and coffee. And he's just cranking through film and cranking through analysis, trying to come up with matchups. I mean, look, this. season is very short. There's only so many games, like 14 games, because one week you have a buy weekend, you don't have to prep per opponent necessarily after week 17 unless you're going to make the postseason. So there's only 14 weeks that you're guaranteed that you have to crank your

ass off from one game to the next to prepare for an upcoming opponent with less than six days to work with here. And you need to enjoy that grind and enjoy that process and not give a crap what anybody else thinks. And so from that perspective, I love the fact that Bill Belichick shows up in this tattered shirt without his hair combed and doesn't give a crap of what anybody else thinks. I mean, do you think that that's premeditated? He has to look in the mirror and know he's wearing this hold up sweatshirt. Like he's aware that he is wearing this incredibly tattered sweatshirt. Or maybe he's like fashion forward. You know, Kanye West comes out with stuff like that and it sells for like 500 bucks. I don't know that he's he's channeling the Kanye fashion line, but I think he's

just doesn't give a shit. I think that he is completely focused on his job, which is to win games, and doesn't give a crap what he looks like. Most of us are working out of our houses, but I can't tell you the last time I even looked in the mirror before I started my day. Like, I just don't even, at this point during the course of the season, I'm not quite as crazy as he is, but you're not going to find me sleeping before 3.45, except on Saturday night or Friday night, once I've done most of the work that I have to do as I'm assisting teams and that sort of thing. Like, I'm just working my ass off. I'm not tweeting a lot at the beginning part of the week.

It's research. It's hard work. It's studying film, studying analytics, updating models, all that type of stuff. You don't have time for that. And so kudos to him for not giving a crap about what anybody else thinks, how he looks. So am I really going to know that you mean business when you show up in a tattered sweatshirt? I mean, I can see you on Zoom. you, I mean, you want to, look, you got like a dry fit polo one.

You're fine. I literally, you talk to Lonnie and Craig. I threw this on a second before I jumped on Zoom. My caller was up. It was unbuttoned. Like, we are lucky that I'm sitting here with this polo on. Let's just put it that one. All right.

So Buffalo and Tennessee are the two that you believe in the least. How about in the NFC? The two and O teams are Green Bay, Chicago, the Rams, Arizona, and Seattle. Today's show also brought to you by Fandul. Ringer NFL show is brought to you by Fanduel. We're teaming up with Fanduel again this season. We've got something new this time around.

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Do what moves you. Drink responsibly. Bacardi, USA, Coral Gables, Florida, rum with natural flavors and spices, 35% alcohol by volume. If you were to ask me this question, question before the season, I probably would have said the Rams. And even after week one, I did not love Sean McVeigh's game plan. But my God, he called the game of his life against the Philadelphia

Eagles. I don't think he made a play call that was wrong in that game. He was just brilliant. I mean, I got to say, I think it was the best game that I have seen him call ever. And so I was really impressed by what he called against the Eagles, surprised, but also impressed. And of course, the Packers, like everybody expected regression from them, but there was something that Aaron Rogers was talking about this offseason that he had worked on and that he was studying some self-scouting during the pandemic when he was at home and watching tape of himself from back in the day and some things that he felt like he wasn't doing anymore that he had been doing in the past, and he's absolutely playing out of his gourd right now. So I think that the Packers are,

the team of this list of those five, I would probably just have to say the Bears because of a quarterback play. I mean, if you look at the way that Aaron Rogers is playing right now, the way that Kyler Murray's playing, the way that Russell Wilson is playing, and those offensive coordinators and how they're calling things, like I've been super impressed. And so the Bears are a team that, look, a lot of people getting on them for blowing that lead against the Giants last week and letting the Giants get back into that game.

But the Bears are not a good favorite. They're not a good team that's going to play with a lead and do everything smart. They're just not that type of team. They're much better, in my opinion, as an underdog. This is a team that could get back in the game and do what they have to do defensively. They're better as an underdog. We saw Mitchell Trabisky come back in week one.

And look, I know Mr. Trabisky has his drawbacks and things that aren't perfect. But I really think that overall, this is a better team as an underdog. But if you have to ask me, which are those five do I believe in the least? I'll have to say the Bears. Well, and it's fascinating too, much like you did with the Eagles, I think it would stun people, because I have in your no tier, that Chicago faces the third toughest schedule of opponents, the rest of the season. And much like the Eagles who play in the NFC East,

I think that would shock people because they, you know, they look and they say, well, God, their division sucks. I mean, I think with the Bears, you're sitting there looking, well, hell, you got the games versus Minnesota. You got the games versus the Lions. There's really one good team in their division. So I think people would be surprised to hear that Chicago has the third toughest schedule, according to you, the rest of the season.

Yeah, well, the problem is the Packers are looking awesome. They also have to play the range. and the Saints. They also are about to play back-to-back games after they take on these Falcons. They have to play back-to-back games against the Colts and the Bucks. Fortunately for them, both of them are at home. And the Titans are a top 15 team right now as well. So they do play some bad teams along the way. Like they get another game against the Lions. They get another game against two games against the Vikings and one game against the Panthers. And those are really bad teams, right? Bottom 10 teams as we stand right now. But most of the other opponents after they take on the Falcons,

are substantially ceded in that above average to even borderline top 10 teams. All right. Let's talk about one of the teams that you mentioned earlier, which was the Buffalo Bills. The other night, as I was watching the Sunday night football game with my son, he was asking me to give him some trivia questions. And I said, okay, who is leading the league in passing? He guessed, I'm not kidding you, Warren, 23 quarterbacks.

before I just finally gave him the answer and gave him the hints. Because the answer, and I think this would surprise even a lot of our listeners, is Josh Allen. Through two weeks of the season, Josh Allen has thrown for 729 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Okay. So I need expert opinion on this. Is this just the new Josh Allen? Is this based upon weak opponents? The first two weeks, is it a little of both?

Where are we at on Josh Allen and the fact that when we look after two weeks, he's leading the entire NFL in passing? Well, I think it's a, as these things usually are, it's a multitude of factors that we have to consider. The first of which being that we are never going to be able to completely isolate in football. And I know everybody wants to do this, but we are never going to be able to isolate a coach from his play caller. It's impossible to strip the two and just say, well, this quarterback is X and this play caller is Y, and so this is why the answer is Z.

We're never going to be able to do that. And Brian Dayball has done a phenomenal job of calling up plays, and we'll talk about that in a second. Number two, they face the number two easiest schedule of past defenses so far in the NFL, taking on the dolphins and the Jets. We already talked about the fact that this is a schedule that is going to increase in the future. it's going to start this week when they take on the Rams, not an easy opponent whatsoever from a past defense perspective. I'm pulling it up right now, but the Rams right now rank eighth in past defensive efficiency

after they just played virtually two bottom 10 past defenses, including the Dolphins, which are worst in the NFL right now, thanks in part to what Josh Allen did to them last week. So that's sort of factored into that as well, very heavily, unfortunately, because it's only two games down in the season. The other thing, too, is what Brian Dable has been doing offensively here. So at some point, maybe there's going to be certain defenses that are better prepared for this style of play.

But they have been using the most 10 personnel of any team in the league. They've called 28 plays so far using 10 personnel. They've also used five wide receivers on seven plays. You know what Josh Allen's done on those seven plays? Five for five, 24 yards per pass attempt. touchdown, a perfect passer rating. Every pass has been successful when they go five wides. And they're using a ton of 11 personnel among the highest rates of anybody in the league. No team in the league right now is using three plus wide receivers on the field as much as Buffalo is. So if you

are a defense that has a really good slot corner and is very well prepared, understanding what Buffalo is going to try to do, maybe you will fare better against them. But Brian Dayball is in sure, he's kind of building in this floor for Josh Allen by doing a lot of very smart things. He is using a lot more play action than they ever used before. They used a lot less play action than I wanted them to last season, and they have made a big adjustment to that. They're using more pre-snap motion, although they need to improve the efficiency out of pre-snap motion, and they're using a lot of early down passing, specifically first down passing.

They're sticking Josh in the gun, snapping the ball to them, zero to one step drop, getting the ball out passing the ball very effectively on plays that typically have been run plays for them where defenses sometimes would have a little bit heavier personnel-based personnel in there. Of course, they're using 11 or 10. And so the defense is adjusting from the get-go, but they're passing out of these things and just having a lot of success. So it's a multitude of factors. I'm really happy with the development we've seen from Josh Allen to date.

They got a big challenge ahead of them with this opponent this week, take it on the Rams, Early money is definitely not buying the Josh Allen hype just like your son was not. And they're betting against the Buffalo Bills. The bills open is three point favorites. That's down to two in some spots right now. Some spots have two and a half. But yeah, it's a multitude of factors there. He's got a big time receiver now, too, Warren.

That Diggs acquisition has been fantastic. Oh, my God. It's fun to watch, isn't it? Yeah, Diggs a player. I mean, obviously, look, you see, they could use them in Minnesota right now. Yes. They absolutely could. I can't wait to just talk about the Vikings here in a second with you.

All right. So I know every week you are charting plays and you are thinking about these coaches and you go out of your way to praise the ones that you think are doing a great job. Of the teams that we have seen so far, and I'm going to imagine it's an 0-and-2 team, which of these teams in your mind has been held back the most by coaching? Through two weeks of the season? So I've got two teams.

Okay. The first one is the most annoying to me. And again, none of this is personal. A hundred percent based on empirical information and decision making and data. Okay. But what the hell is Adam Gase's problem? All right. Let's just start with that.

Okay. We know, we know that there's a couple things that you should be doing as a play caller in the NFL. The first thing is adapting your scheme. to the players that you have on the roster, right? You could have a certain style, a system that you want to play, but you need to be a little bit flexible on that. You have to be a tiny bit flexible to make sure that you're adjusting to the personnel that you have.

Bill Belichick showed us this tremendously, right? This is a Bill Belichick philosophy, a core principle that he's done for years, is adapting to his players that he has, putting them in positions to succeed. That's number one. Number two, you have to use efficient. decisions from a play calling perspective. Right now, Adam Gase and the New York Jets are using play action on only 16% of early downs in the first three quarters. That is the lowest rate of any team in the NFL. They're just not using play action at all. And his usage rate, and it says one

thing that you're lower than the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been like the lowest in the league for years. Now, I know they're improving a little bit, but the Jets being the lowest in the league is terrible through two weeks, and they're not making any adjustments from that perspective. And number two, they're using pre-snap motion on only 11% of their plays. That is the fourth lowest in the league and one of the worst, obviously one of the worst efficiencies out there in terms of a usage rate and effectiveness when they use it. They're just smart, not smart with what they're doing. Hey, you know when you really know a guy is goofy Warren is when you said that you began

this with what the hell is Adam Gays doing? I say that when I am watching other teams now. And I mean this by saying, I'll watch the Titans and I'll watch Ryan Taney Hill roll out and throw it 40 yards on a dime. And I say, what is Adam Gase doing? Or I'll watch Kenyon Drake break one for 60 yards. And I'll be like, what is Adam? Like all these former dolphins are so much better in all of their landing spots. Every time I watch, I think back, I'm like, I need to go pull that roster where it's,

got like Minka Fitzpatrick and it's got Kenyon Drake and it's got Ryan Daniel. Like we're going to look back and that team was not nearly as shitty as they performed once upon a time in Miami. So you know it said when his own team is performing poorly and seemingly all these

guys that he once coached are way better than we thought they were when they were playing for him. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. Now look, Adam Gase does not build his roster and nor does he control injuries, right? So it's not his fault that the wide receiver core is depleted. Okay, you have Mims that

he's drafted. He's on the IR. He was projected to be the week one starter at the X. You have Crowder who's banged up and hurt. Okay. But they used 83% 11 personnel in week one when they already know that they don't have wide receivers. I've said it for years when he was with the dolphins that I looked through the numbers. They needed to use more 12. They needed to be more diverse from a personnel in schematic standpoint. They just keep going 11 personnel because they just didn't have the players to do it. With New York last year, the same story, different season, different team. Now, the same story in 2020, different season, same team, he continues to use too much 11 personnel. Now, if you look at the data from last week, you can go, this is free for anybody. You can go to Sharp Football Stats as one of my other websites,

and you can go to the personnel grouping matchup tool. And you can look at this for yourself. If you isolate week two, you're going to see, oh my gosh, it looks like Adam Gase made some adjustments. looks like he used a little bit more 12. Bullshit, he did not. The only reason, the only reason that there's more 12 showing up there is because he literally could not play 11 personnel. In the first half of the game, they had three plus wide receivers out on the football field on 10 of 11 of their passes.

All they had on the roster that were even eligible receivers were Breshaad Perryman, Chris Hogan, Braxton, Berrios, and Josh Malone. Bradshawad Perriman goes out with an injury. Chris Hogan goes out with an injury. You only have two wide receivers, Braxton, Barrios, and Josh Malone. Of course, you can't play 11 personnel, which is why their second half usage of 11 dips tremendously

because they didn't even have three wide receivers that they could trot out there on the football field. It's like he literally is taking just to anybody. You're a wide receiver. Come on, you're going to be playing for me. Go out there on the field. Like, not even analyzing, well, could I throw an extra tight end out there

to help block and send out Chris, Herndon in a route. I mean, my colleague over at sharp football analysis, Rich Rebar, he told me that Chris Herndon, their tight end, was only running routes on 21 of 34 dropbacks last week. That was 24th in the NFL. So this guy is not running routes on enough passes. He's probably your best offensive weapon at this point in time. And you're not even sending him out there to run routes on dropbacks for Sam Darnold and helping out this offense as much as you need to. He's run routes on the 26th least of all tight ends, offensive pass dropbacks this season. It's absolutely absurd what Adam Gase is doing, continuing.

And I actually tweeted this out. There was a reporter who mentioned how beat up this wide receiver core is entering week two and how they have only a few guys up at wide receiver because all these guys are injured and getting hurt and playing injured. James and Crowder couldn't even play in the game. And obviously we know MIMS is still not there. And I tweeted out, I predict that Adam Gase is just going to continue to throw out as much 11 as he can. And that's exactly what he did.

And there's no excuse for that. I want to touch on the Vikings really quick, too, because the Vikings, they're only using play action on 25% of their early down dropbacks in the first three quarters. That's the third lowest rate in the NFL. Back last season, obviously Kevin Sophansky was calling plays for them then. they were using play action on 44% of these plays, which was the fifth highest rate in the NFL. So they dropped from the fifth highest to the third lowest. Now, their philosophy, I believe, because they're not that intelligent as it comes to this, I bet their philosophy is what we're losing.

And so teams aren't going to respect our play action. So we're not going to use it because we're down on the scoreboard. But the fact of the matter is that they still used it on 36% of their passes last season when they were trailing, which was above the 33% NFL average, and it was having some success for them. This year, 36% has dropped all the way down to 11%. And it's not as if the only reason that I would ever suggest a team use less play action is if it just isn't working or you're absolutely great without it. Like your quarterback is struggling when you use play action, but he's phenomenal without

it. So let's not fix something that's not broken, right? but Kirk Cousins on 18 dropbacks without play action when this team is losing has thrown three interceptions on 18 attempts. He's got a 29% success rate. Is averaging less than six and a half yards per pass attempt? He's terrible without play action. So you might as well try to use it a little bit more. You were using it a lot more last season above average. You're down to one of the lowest rates in the NFL right now. Obviously, we know this team has significant problems on the other side of the football. Stop making your life more complicated on the side of the football that you can conclude.

troll, which is your own play calling. Well, and they've also got, I mean, they got Adam Thielen. And I loved the kid from LSU, Jefferson, that they drafted. But, I mean, they don't get the ball. I mean, it might get three catches in the game or something. And obviously it hurts Dalvin, too, because Dalvin's an electric player. But if you're only, you know, if you're not running play action at all, all of the sudden, you're not tricking anybody, right?

Well, you got to stay on the field. I mean, the key within offense is, number one, you want to score points. but number two, if you're not scoring points, you're going to be moving the ball closer to the end zone, and you want to be staying on the field, avoiding third downs, avoiding fourth downs and punts and those types of things. And that means being efficient

with your play calls on early downs, and they're just not doing that right now. Warren, they are a perfect team to have as a subject because I'm going to pivot into the lines this week. So first, let me ask you, before I give you the spread, I was most surprised by, until the Raiders,

we weren't seeing underdogs win outright. And I think conventional wisdom is, oh, that was a favorites week. That was a chalk week last week. And so now there's going to be a massive course correction. And you're going to see a bunch of underdogs win in week number three. Is that an old wives tale or is there real data to back that up? That when there is a big swing and you see a bunch of favorites win, then the next week a bunch of underdogs win. And I say that in conjunction with the spread that stood out to me was,

was that crappy Vikings team that you were talking about is less than a field goal underdog to the Tennessee Titans. And so there's a part of me that sight unseen, I just say, okay, here's another fade the Viking spot. And I do think the Titans are much better team than the Vikings. On the other hand, the whole underdogs not covering or winning last week

certainly does freak me out a little bit. So talk me through the whole course correction thing and then that line that stood out to me that I thought would be higher, especially considering how crappy the Vikings have been in the first two weeks of the season. No, so the first thing's first, the course correction thing is true from the perspective that if the odds makers are getting beat up by not making favorites large enough so that they keep covering games and underdogs aren't banging with them and covering some spreads, That means the books are losing money, which means they're going to adjust their odds. Now, first of all, just go on a little diatribe here and say that anytime you see books tweeting out online, oh my God, we got killed. Oh, my God, like this is the end of the world.

Screw that. It's total propaganda. These guys just are trying to make it look like they need more of your money that betting on the NFL is super easy and you're going to have slam dunk success. So ignore all these guys, ignore their panhandling and they're crying. totally fraudulent and it's propaganda. But in this sense, what it does is they will inflate the lines a little bit more on the favorites. And eventually you will get course correction. I mean, just look at the Patriots right back in 2017, I'm sorry, 2007, when they started out of smaller favorites. And then the books had to raise their number to bigger favorites. And then

finally raise them so big that over the last half of the season, I think if you faded them, you were hitting above like 65% down the stretch, just fading the Patriots, even though they were undefeated team because of the spreads that the odds maker was laying on them by that point in time. So it sometimes takes a little while for these guys. They base everything off of power ratings and they're very hesitant to make massive adjustments in these power ratings. So whether it's this week or in the near future, there will be a course correction. It's not something that you can just say, well, screw it.

I'm just betting all these underdogs this week because all the favorites won last week. and we're going to get massive value just because of that. In this very week on every single game, that's not necessarily the way that it works, but certain spots, especially when the public is like, oh, well, screw it. I bet five favorites last week.

They all covered for me. We won all of our games. Just Moneyline parlayed all these guys together, and we crushed it, and we're going to do the same thing again. Chances are there's going to be a couple more slip-ups along the way, but I'm not saying it's going to happen 16 out of 16 games. So whether or not you pick the right one or right two

or right three, there's always a factor of that that's going to play into it. In terms of the Vikings this week, you're absolutely right. I think one of the things the odds maker struggling with here is trying to understand what the true home field advantage is, specifically in a place like Minnesota, where they've had the number one home field advantage since they built that new stadium in 2016 with the crowd noise reverberating and refracting off of the roof. It's specifically architecturally designed for that. We talked about it on the show.

with House on Friday before the season started, why I like the Packers in that game. One of the reasons that took them out plus three and a half was because of the home field advantage not being as significant here. And so I think the books are trying to figure out what the Vikings home field advantage should be. We know that this team is not as bad as some of the end results have looked. Offensively, they actually can be more productive than what they are. They do have enough talent there to do better than what they are doing.

And if you look at a Tennessee Titans team, this has not exactly been a team that's really been slaming the back door on everybody. We've seen teams like the Jaguars who will talk about in a second, be able to put up points and score on them and come from behind. We've seen a team like Denver. I mean, if Jerry Judy doesn't drop a couple of balls, that's a little bit of a different game. Of course, you could say the same thing if they don't miss a number of field goals. But I have not done anything on this game. I'll tell you that much, Chris. And I will say that under a field goal, you are definitely going to get a lot of.

of the public lining up on the Tennessee Titans here. Yeah. And then I'm going to and then and then the Vikings are going to lose 21 to 20 because Mike Brable just runs the ball for the whole fourth quarter or something, right? Like I mean, I feel that coming when it looks too easy. That means it's, uh, it's not too easy. Do you think that gets to three? Um, I think most likely it will because I'm trying to, I'm struggling to think of anybody

from the public who is really going to see a ton of value taking the Vikings here. I will say that there probably will be some professionals who may end up coming in on the Vikings when it does get to three. You know, you do not see big moves on the board, which I'm staring out right now. You don't see big moves from the public. Like the public, it trickles up here or there. Eventually, the books want a little bit better action. They want to lessen their liability here. they feel like they're taking a lot of tickets, which means some public money on the Vikings, on the Titans rather. So they want to like get a little bit of nibble from the professional.

So they'll raise it to three. And then if they take a big chunk, right, like a five dime bet or 10 dime bet at a specific book, they're going to lower it back down to two and a half and just try to balance their exposure on a game like this. I think that's probably what they're going to try to do the most because they really don't know what these Vikings are, nor do they know what the home field is. is here. So I think they're going to be very reluctant. Sometimes sports books, and this is diving a little bit deep for a Wednesday, but I will say that sometimes sports books will take a position on

games. They will allow themselves to be imbalanced on a cash perspective with what the risk is, because they think they've got the right side. So they want to take more money on the wrong side, and they're fine with hanging a number that's going to encourage that. And they won't adjust because they want your money on the other side because they like their side. In other situations, they are going to just try to balance things as much as possible from an end-of-the-day cash perspective to try to have as little risk as possible, knowing that if they're dealing minus 110 on each side, they're going to make a profit as long as they get balanced action on that game.

Well, people that did bet on the Titans last week got burnt because of the Jags. And that's the Thursday night game. So let's hit that before we get out of here. Jags Dolphins. People call it a London game. They are not playing this game in London. But Jags Dolphins Thursday night, what are you looking for? Give me why I should be interested besides my guy Garner Minshue the second. You know what, Warren, I was just thinking about this. I got to go look this back. On a show I do daily, it became this long-running joke about him because we bet him every single week at Washington State. and it was one of the great covering seasons of all time. And I've got to go look up his NFL record because it's got to be,

I mean, if we just took his Washington State one year under Mike Leach, and now his NFL record since he has been, this guy's got to be like over 80% in terms of covering games as a starting quarterback, Minchu. And so I certainly would never bank against him, but I am fascinated to what you think about Jags Dolphins. Well, as you mentioned, Chris, in Washington State back in 2018,

he absolutely crushed it against the spread. It was like printing money. This is a team the odds makers just couldn't catch up to with the style of offense that they were playing there, concluding with that 69 point, a nice number against performance against Arizona in November right before the Apple Cup, the final game of the season before the Apple Cup.

At that point in time, they were nine and two against the spread, covering just a ridiculous rate of games. They failed to cover the Apple Cup. As you mentioned, they couldn't run their offense. in that blizzard. And then they lost against, well, they won, but they failed to cover against Iowa State

in the bowl game on December 28th. So this is a guy who had a tremendous record at Washington State against the spread. In the NFL, he's 9 and 7. That's 56% against the spread, which is not necessarily anything to write home about. But some of these games, you know, they played in a neutral site game against the Texans and this is a bad team. So going over there is difficult for them to do. he's covered his last three starts week 16 week one of sorry week 17 last year week one and week two

so far this season has he ever been a favorite has he been a favorite in the NFL he he's been favored twice in the NFL uh he was favored against the sorry three times he was favored against the jets last season in week eight uh by seven points he covered that game in one he was favored against the bengals in week seven so the prior week to that by four and a half points. He covered that game in one, although that required an 18 point fourth quarter for them to get that win. It was a 10 point win, but they scored 18 points in the fourth. And then they were favored in week six. So the week prior to that, they were favored by one point against the Saints without Drew Brees. They ended up losing that game. However, they were winning six to three

heading into the fourth quarter in a low scoring game against Teddy Bridgewater. And the Saints ended up scoring a touchdown and winning the game 13 to 6. So he didn't cover that game. So this is just the fourth game that it'll be favored in his professional career, but he's two and one straight up and against the spread in his prior games. I think this game is actually going to be more fun, more fun than a lot of people think. First of all, we do have the battle of the facial hair. Speaking of mine at the top of the show, we'll conclude it at the bottom with some

trash talk about facial hair. You know, Ryan Fitzpatrick talking about the fact that guys who have mustaches probably have a soft sides of their face and they can't grow beard so they decide just to grow mustaches. Gardner Minshu firing back saying that he's not going to disrespect his elders and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a substantial elder to him. So I think we got a nice battle of some crazy facial hair and two guys who play the game from a, you know, psychological or just like a motivation standpoint, similar ways. Like, screw it. Let's just go out and play football. Let's just go play ball. Let's throw the ball around a

little bit. It's going to be a fun game. I think it's going to be more entertaining and exciting. This total opened at some spots at 44, other spots 45. It's all the way up to 48. And it took a little bit more money as we're talking on the show towards the over. That was the position that I looked at, obviously at a better number here. But I looked towards the over. I just look at this Dolphins team. And they played week one in a very muted game against Cam Newton. And I say muted because they don't have many opportunities to score. They don't have many opportunities to have the ball because Cam and the Patriots were running

the ball a ton and it was this like draining clock game. And so that's muted. You're not going to have these opportunities to perform. Last week against the bills, the bills obviously scored a ton. That game went over. I took the over. I took over 41 on game day morning. And it actually sailed over quite easily.

went over first half in full game. But in that game, I don't think people remember because a lot of people probably weren't watching that game. I think it had one, if not two weather delays and most people weren't paying

close attention at all. Do you know that the Buffalo bills in the second half of that game were up 20 to 17? Sorry, the Miami Dolphins were up in that game in the second half. So this is a team in the dolphins whose offense can perform against,

that was against a far better defense in what Buffalo has than what Jacksonville is going to be trotting out there on the football field. I think there's going to be some opportunities here for both of these offenses to perform. I do not think that the Miami Dolphins sitting at O and 2, knowing how their season could go, knowing that they already got a quarterback on the roster, who they need, knowing how they played last year and they're rebuilding.

This is not a team that's going to take this game and not really focus hard on trying to win a national televised game week three of the football season. They're going to be going out there with everything. to try to win this game. I actually think that there's going to be opportunities across the middle of the field against this Dolphins defense for Gardner Minshu. That Dolphins defense has not really been tested

across the middle of the field very much by opposing offenses. But the Jaguars are throwing a lot of passes across the middle of the field. I think you're going to have some success throwing a ball here. So I do see some points coming in this game. I do see some points common in this game.

It might be Jags Dolphins, but it might get electric if we got a bunch of offense going up. between these two teams. What more do we really want to see on a Thursday night game than Gardner Minchew trailing or Ryan Fitzpatrick trailing against a mediocre to bad defense on the other side of the ball and letting these gunslingers with facial hair go at it and try to will their teams back to the lead. I think it's going to be more entertaining than we might otherwise expect from what our memory tells us of a lot of disappointing Thursday night football games. I cannot wait for

that and the rest of week three. Warren, you're the best. I'll talk to you next week. Awesome, Chris. Enjoy the Thursday game. Thanks to everybody for listening. Remember coming up tomorrow? Make sure you're listening to our buddy Kevin Clark and another episode of the Ringer NFL show.