The Ringer NFL Show - How Many Teams Can Win the Super Bowl? | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: July 2, 2020

Kevin is joined by The Ringer’s Danny Kelly and Kaelen Jones to list their tiers of teams that could win the Super Bowl in 2020 and break down what those teams need to do to get there. They begin by discussing the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, and Saints before talking about the fringe teams that could make the leap this season. Host: Kevin Clark Guest: Danny Kelly and Kaelen Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey guys, Kevin Clark here. Quick note, we recorded this show at the end of last week. So this was before the Cam Newton signing with the Patriots, which we all found to be a great signing. We addressed this briefly with Danny Kelly on the Monday show, our new expectations to the Patriots. But obviously, whatever our expectations were in this episode with the Patriots, you can just kick them up a notch. It's the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast network. I am Kevin Clark. joined today by new ringer staff writer Kaylin Jones and DK the Dark Night long time ringer staff writer Danny Kelly. How's it going, guys?

It's going well. Doing pretty good. All right. So we're going to do one of my favorite exercises of the year. I think that as the calendar turns towards July, I think that this is the most helpful thing we can do to reset our expectations for the season, what every team looks like as a contender and what they need to break right. It's how many teams who win the Super Bowl and how do they get there?

I think that July starts really, it's the season. I mean, the training camp is supposed to start. Tom Pelliserro and Ian Rapport reported that the veterans are supposed to report on July 28th. What that looks like, we don't know. We can't kind of play the hypothetical game here. But as things stand right now, training camp starts July 28th. Now, the Lions, new Lions owner took over yesterday and said, quote, it's going to be a weird year.

That's probably the most succinct way of putting what this year looks like. But we just have to pretend there's going to be 16 games and full playoffs. And as of now, four preseason games, even though the Hall of Fame game has been canceled. But we're just going off of what this season is supposed to look like right now. Now, this is an easy game. We're doing it in three tiers. Tier one is contenders we know contenders that are nailed on where there's basically nothing they have to do to be contenders. We know who those teams are.

Tier two is they need one or two breaks. Some easy breaks. They're almost contenders. They're on the fringe of being contenders, but they need a little something. Tier three is they need a lot of breaks. They need all the breaks. Maybe they need a bad quarterback to become good.

Something that we don't, something that doesn't happen very often. That's tier three. And then tier four is can't win the Super Bowl. We won't go into those unless there's specific debate points. Kaelan will start with you. Your tier one looks like one. Okay. My tier one, I'd even have to do some tinkering in the midst of you talking, because it was again, like, I was really ruthless with this.

Yes, please do. I have three teams in my tier one. Okay. So I only, I initially had four. I was kind of teasing you guys early. Oh, wow. You cut a team. You cut a team already. That's how ruthless you are. You're just currently cutting teams. Okay, go ahead. I have to. I mean, you know, as everything stands right now, I have Baltimore, Kansas City. New Orleans and San Francisco. And honestly, I'm kind of nervous about having San Francisco in there. Oh, okay. I have a different view on that, but we'll get to mine in a second. So why are you nervous about having San Francisco in there?

Again, because, I mean, you kind of saw in the Super Bowl. Jimmy Garoppolo, I think as good as he is, I still think that he is kind of what holds the team back. And I think that was really the discussion after the Super Bowl. You know, everyone's like, can Jimmy Garapolo end? up being, you know, a top-tier quarterback. And there's definitely instances where he looks to the part. But at the same time, I think that, you know, if the 49ers had, you know, say,

a quarterback that was like a step above him or, again, if Kyle Shanahan was able to, you know, put the ball in someone's hands who's more trustworthy than him, I think that's really the only issue. Obviously, you have to replace the forest Buckner as well. Von Kinlau's, like, a really big addition. But, I mean, like, the presence that Buckner had along the defensive line was very apparent, not just, you know, last season, but in previous years as well. So, I mean, like, as long as they're able to replace him within that defensive front,

then they have a chance to repeat what they have. But, yeah, I'm just skeptical over Jimmy Garoppolo. But, you know, Kyle Shanahan is a great, arguably the best play caller in the league. So there's a way to skim around that. So my viewpoint on it is that Jimmy Garoppel in a vacuum is not a great quarterback, but Jimmy Garoppel with Kyle Shanahan can be a great quarterback and was at times exactly what they needed. They have enough help there. The Joe Steeley retirement bothers me a little bit. The DeForest Buckner trade, even though it was just great business, bothers me a little bit. But I think

this is a continuity offseason. I think the fact that they return so much and they're pretty much the same team. And they got a little better. Obviously, they traded DeForest Buckner for a high pick. So it's not like they gave him away. It wasn't a DeAndre Hopkins situation. And I think that generally there won't be huge leaps. And if you were good last year, you'll be good this year. and I have no problems keeping them in the top, top tier. With New Orleans, spell out why you think that they are kind of nailed on contenders because I don't have them. I'll make that argument a little bit later.

But with New Orleans, what do you like about them, Kailen? Again, you mentioned like it being a continuity type of year. Drew Breeze coming back, the offense that they have outside of adding, you know, Emmanuel Sanders, who was a pretty underrated dynamic piece, I think, within New Orleans system could fit really well. I think, again, like, and this probably, they probably should have landed into two because of this, but if you get Alvin Camara to play at a high,

consistently elite level, like we saw in 2018, as opposed to 2019, again, the pieces there, and then you look at the defense, Cameron, Jordan, Sheldon Ranking. It's like along the defensive front, their linebacking corps is a little bit suspect,

but again, like you look at the secondary, what they're able to add to Norse Jenkins, what they have in Marcus Williams, Malcolm Jenkins, Marshawn Lattimore. Like those are all, that's a complete team in addition to the fact that they play in the NFC South, which I think, you know, outside of Atlanta, I mean, we'll see.

But I don't think it's the strongest, most competitive division, even though you have Tom Brady and Gronkinco with Tampa Bay. And then you just look at the strength of schedule. I think that New Orleans lands, I think, within the top 10 of like easiest schedules this year. So I think that New Orleans, if you put all the pieces together, like this would be okay. That's a great argument. But I do think that the NFC South,

I've talked myself into Tampa Bay more and more, and that's why I think the strength of that division, I think is I'm talking myself into it, and that's one of the reasons that I've dropped New Orleans to be the number one team in my tier two. But we'll get to that a little bit later. Danny Kelly, Tier 1, go ahead. Yeah, I have the exact same one.

Chiefs, Ravens, Saints, and 49ers. And I think for me, the Saints are, like securely in tier one. I mean, I'm very, very confident in the Saints. I mean, they were number four in overall DVOA last season. Again, they have a lot of continuity, veteran

quarterback, you know, very, very balanced roster, maybe the best roster in the NFL, honestly, from top to bottom in just terms of they have very few holes. And so to me, they're very securely in there. I think they have room to get better to, you know, with the Emmanuel Sanders edition, Camara coming back, more

healthy. Malkin Jenkins coming in on that defense gives them a lot of flexibility. I think Chauncey Gardner Johnson is a rising star. We saw that last year. He kind of flashed, but he looked really, really good. So they have such good depth and such a good complete roster that I think to me putting them in there was an easy choice. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

So overall, I'm pretty confident in them. I would agree with you guys in terms of the 49ers situation. I think they deserve to be in tier one. but you know, you're always dealing with the Super Bowl loss hangover. You know, they didn't lose like a ton in free agency or anything like that. It was kind of fortunate for them in that area, but they did just lose Debo Samuel to a foot injury and he could be out for an extended period of time. So that's going to put a little more of the onus on Brennan Ayuk to come in immediately, you know, or... You love Brandon Ayuk.

I love him. I think he's going to be a very good player, but, I mean, it's asking a lot to have, you know, a rookie guy come in and be like, like the number one receiver or whatever. So you're going to have to have other guys step up. Samuel should be ready to go early in the season. That's my hope. And that's the expectation from the folks who reported that injury. So I'm okay with that.

Let me get to mine and then we can have a broader discussion. So I obviously have the Chiefs. I have the Ravens. I have the Niners. The reason, and we'll get to this in Tier 2, I think that the Bucks and the Saints are both extraordinarily good and can easily win the Super Bowl. And they both have roster talent,

and they both have good coaching staffs and all that. Because of that, one of those teams will be playing a road playoff game. One of those teams, even if they win 12 games, might not win the division. And this is my argument where, I don't know if you can say

that 100 times out of 100 or 1,000 times out of 1,000 that these guys would be contenders because one of them will have a weird path because the division is so strong. It's almost a compliment to the NFC South that I don't have the Saints in my tier. one. They also have a 41-year-old quarterback. The older you get, the more likely you are to fall

for cliff. There's been research on this. I think Drew Breeze is obviously an incredible player. I think that Michael Thomas will help whatever decline he has when you talk about the fact that he led the NFL last year in difficult receptions and the fact that even if Drew Bree starts to be a little less accurate and he's one of the most accurate passes in history, that Michael Thomas will help that along. Obviously, the line is good, all that stuff. But I just think that there are a couple more question marks about the Saints and there are the Chiefs and the Ravens. By the way, within Tier 1, the Chiefs and the Ravens are on a different platform for me. Like this is, if you were to divide within Tier 1, those two teams are in. Again, let's go back to the continuity thing,

because not only is this a continuity offseason, but when you have the top two teams in the NFL, and I believe the Chiefs and the Ravens are, and you look at what they were able to bring back, it was a, as much as Eric B. Enemy should be a head coach, and as much as probably one of the Ravens guys should have been picked off. That's Wink Martindale or even Greg Roman or Chris Horton, their special teams coach. They're returning pretty much everybody. And that's really important. And I think that the chiefs, you look at some of their contract situations, Patrick Mahomes,

obviously still on his rookie contract. Lamar Jackson still on his rookie contract. The added talent they have around there. Chris Jones at some point will get extremely expensive. There was a report today that he's looking for $21 million. They add Clyde Edwards Hilaire, which I think is for as much as we make fun of, you know, drafting a running back in the first round, he's going to bring a lot of value. For some, for Willie Gay Jr., I think it can add some talent there.

I think that the chiefs in a season where there's not going to be a lot of great leaps got a little bit better, and that's all it's going to take. Patrick Mahomes is going to be great no matter what. He makes the extraordinary look extremely normal. And then the Ravens. I mean, they still have Matthews. you Judon, I think that the Marshall Yonda thing is a problem. When you lose a future Hall of Famer, yes, it's going to be a problem. But I think they crushed the draft. Patrick

Queen, excellent addition to their defense. And I just think that both of those teams got a little bit better and they were already so much better than every other team that I think that there's a real gulf between team two and team three in the NFL right now. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think those two are the clear ones. Yeah, the Ravens to me are, it's hard to really pick holes in their entire roster, too. I mean, they just have, they just quietly add Calais Campbell. That's just ridiculous. Yeah, also Derek Wolf.

Yeah, they're just, it, the Campbell edition in particular was just like, man, that is just unfair at this point. Why, you know, why did 20 or why did three one of the teams not do that? Yeah, I just don't understand. He's still one of the top pass rushers in the NFL. Yes. He had like a 90 grade last year by PFF. Do they have like really good Wi-Fi or something where they're able to get these trade offers in before everybody else?

It's unbelievable. I mean, the people around the league are like trading for kickers for fifth round picks. And Eric Takas is like, let me tell what I'm going to do instead. I'm going to get one of the best pass rushers in football. It's unbelievable. They are so much. They are so.

Mark. And I think that I also that yeah, I was just going to say I think that the other thing that that makes me very excited about the Ravens is they still have a couple of young guys on the come up that could really yeah, you know, take them to the next level. Marquis Brown was injured a lot of his rookie season, but he showed some real flashes as like a really dynamic deep threat, you know, take the take the ball to house type threat. You know, they have the jk. Dobbins was one of my favorite running backs in this entire draft. They, they managed. get him in the second round. So they've got, you know, some really good young players that are still sort of developing in their career. And, you know, those guys can take the next step. Mark Andrews looked like one of the top breakout tight ends last year and he's going to just keep getting better. So, you know, I think that they were so, so good last year and they weren't even really operating at peak efficiency with, you know, part from their quarterback was obviously awesome. But, like, offensively, they have a lot of room to grow with, like, their skill position players and stuff. So, yeah, the sky is the limit with this team.

Yeah, and with the Ravens specifically, I actually talked to Lamar Jackson about this a couple of weeks ago, where it's, and I've said this on the pod before, but if you're a defense, if you're the Bengals, or you're the Browns, or you're the Steelers, and normally you would spend OTAs selling out to stop Lamar Jackson and installing packages and experimenting in practice, you don't get that now.

You don't get that now. And go ahead and watch tape of Lamar Jackson on Zoom, okay? You're not getting any better. You know what he is. And you can't sell out to stop him. And I think that there's, you know, he did not, when I asked him this question, this didn't make slow newsday. But when I asked him this a couple of weeks ago, I asked him, are you worried about teams selling out to catch up with you? No, he's not.

And this is, and that's not an arrogance thing. It's more, when I say that, it's more about he's working just as hard to stay ahead of the curve. and I think that generally it's going to be really hard to even catch up with what he was last year. So it's going to be tough if you're a defense right now to catch up to the Baltimore Ravens.

All right, tier two. This is a huge tier. I have about 500 teams in this tier. But let's start, Kaelin, go through you tier two. All right. Tier two, I've got Seattle, Dallas, Buffalo, Pittsburgh,

Houston, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and one of you guys might be thrown off by Atlanta. Oh, okay. Let's go through this year. So I have more teams than you do. I do not have Atlanta. Take me through the Falcons pick. I have the Falcons is a Tier 3 team.

Well, so, I mean, you look at the 2019 season. Atlanta just was decimated by injury. And I think that when you have all the weapons that they have, I think, you know, granted, again, they don't have a Kyle Shanahan calling plays from them. But when you look at them healthy roster-wise, like how they're constructed, their defense should have played a lot better. Their offense, you know, again, Matt Ryan, with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, the weapons that they have offensively, even though they're losing a Devonpe Freeman, if you get, here's that if you get Todd Gurley to play at a high level, if you get Matt Ryan to play at a high level consistently. I think that they should be able to replicate the kind of success that they had

just a few seasons ago, at the very least, be pushing for a finish within the top half of the conference. I mean, granted, they didn't do well in one score games last year, or they did pretty well in one score games last year, and the record wasn't that good.

But again, I think a lot of that is attributed to the injury stuff. Yeah, the Falcons are a team I've talked myself into as the season goes on, again, as the off season goes on, because, again, the injury thing, was unbelievable. I mean, the last couple of years, it seems like their season was over before it even started just because they start losing guys. Their cap situation is a bit nightmarish, and you can't afford big injuries when that happens when you're spending a lot of money

on your blue chip guys. Now, I tend to think, and I've talked about this with George and Eric from PFF a couple weeks ago when they were on here, but I tend to think that this might be sort of an Occam's razor off season, where if you're just good at one thing, you can rely on that. over and over again. And I think having Matt Ryan and Julio Jones is a really good combination to have. If you're just, let's say there's a shortened preseason. Let's say there's a shortened training camp and you just show up with a couple of weeks practice for week one. Well, I'd like to have Julio Jones and Matt Ryan in that scenario. I'd like to be playing pitch and catch with those guys and just dunking on defenses that aren't ready for it. So I agree with that. I just think that it needs a

couple more things to happen for them to be a tier two team for me. They're still, they're squarely a tier three team that I feel really good about. Um, okay, so I had a couple of teams you don't have, but I want to get Danny Kelly's before, before that. Danny Kelly, tier two. So my tier two, I've got the Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Packers, Steelers, Eagles, Eagles, Titans, Bills, and Rams. As we were talking, I added the Bills and Rams. As we were talking, I added the Bills and Rams kind of quickly because I think the Bills is a big thing for me is if Josh Allen

takes a jump this year, they're a Super Bowl team. That's like the main thing. And the Rams, I just think if they can rediscover their offensive mojo, which I think they can because we saw it sort of down the stretch. And if Gough kind of gets back to

being what we saw the previous two years, which is kind of a big question mark, but I think that that alone makes them a contest. plus they've got some like studs on defense and the continuity thing is great like Aaron Donald Jalen Ramsey all that so um I think the Rams kind of snuck in there for me I didn't have the Falcons in there but I think you could certainly make make the argument for them to be in that tier and I had the Texans in tier three as well just because chaos I guess it's just kind of a

chaotic team so I agree with you it's a chaotic team but I need to talk about the Texans here I had the Texans in my tier two. Texans are interesting. Yeah. They are, if you look at the Vegas odds, a couple of books have them at 66 to 1 for the Super Bowl. A couple of them have 50 to 1. They're behind in most sports books.

The Cleveland Browns, the bears, the chargers, Falcons, some of them, the Broncos, they're behind. Some of them, the Cardinals, they're behind on the sports. I'm currently looking at they're tied with the Cardinals and Broncos. Am I missing something about the Texans? Because it seems to me that the Texans have, for as much as we make fun of them,

and as much as they traded DeAndre Hopkins for essentially nothing, they still have one of the best quarterbacks in football. They still have a coach who at least knows what he's doing when he's, you know, between the three hours on Sunday, whether he knows what he's doing when he's making trades and signing for agents is different. They have players like Laramie Tonsil, even if they overpaid for him.

And so I think we're kind of getting too caught up in the noise with the Texans and not looking at why you win football games, which is quarterback, coach, and roster talent. And I think they've got that. Yeah, do they have Darren Conley? I was just looking at him when he was in Oakland last year before the trade, he was averaging 130 pass the rating against. And then when he got to Houston, it was 90. So, like, that's not good. But there's not the simplest and easiest way to compete in the NFL is to have a great quarterback. and you've solved the biggest problem the franchise's face if you have one.

And I'm going to usually put a really good quarterback in tier two because you really, I mean, listen, I'd rather have, the bills have a great roster, but their question mark is quarterback. I'd prefer my question mark not be quarterback. If you have an elite quarterback, you've solved the problem that almost every other team is trying to solve. And I just think that the Texans are a tier two team for me because of that. Because the quarterback is not going to hold them back.

I think that's the overarching thing. Danny Kelly, Houston Texans. Yeah. So I guess my perspective on the Texans is I just have a few major, major questions about how they're going to win week in and week out. Number one, the defense was not good last year. granted they had some injuries. Getting J.J. Watt back for a full season should be a big help.

So I think the question number one to me is, can they get J.J. Watt back to closer to what he, you know, that elite level. And if they can, that's a huge, huge bonus for them. Obviously, it's going to help a ton. And then the other question is just how is the receiver core going to work in Houston? Obviously, I believe exactly what you're saying with Sean Watson. He's, to me, one of the most, one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. And that alone makes you a contender for the for the Super Bowl. But you know,

Brandon Cooks is a question mark going into next year. He suffered a couple of concussions last season. That's obviously a concern and an issue. And Will Fuller's been injured, you know, he's had injury issues for his entire career. Randall Cobb isn't getting any younger. So like that's their top three receivers.

If, you know, if they lose one of those guys or two of those guys, then that kind of changes my opinion on like how much this often, like the ceiling of this offense. And obviously, David Johnson's there too now. And we don't exactly know if he can get back to the elite form that we saw early in his career. So just there's multiple question marks for me for this offense and for the defense. So that's why I put them in tier three.

But at the end of the day, I mean, Watson and for as much as we make fun of Bill O'Brien, like they've been a good combination. They've gone to the playoffs. Every time you get to the playoff, like they were up on the chiefs for a little bit there too. So it's just one of those things where if things, where if things break right for them, I could see it. But ultimately, too many question marks for me to put them in tier two. Yeah, no, I get that.

They're almost tier two and a half to me. I'm just, I almost want to overrate them because of how disrespected they're getting. Like, no one makes fun of Bill O'Brien more than I do. It's the punchline, yeah. Yeah, and I just want to stake my claim that he's not bad. Kaelan, did you not have the Packers in your tier two? I did it. Okay, let's hear that.

I'm in Aaron Rogers' stand, so it's kind of weird. weird to not, you know, have them in there. But again, like you mentioned earlier, like the decline. I mean, last season, don't get me wrong, like Aaron Rogers still played at a league level at times, but it definitely looked inconsistent. And again, they don't have, they've never, I mean, ever since, you know, the era of Jennings, driver,

like those guys, Jordan Nelson, like, since those guys have begun, I don't feel like the Packers have sufficiently provided him, you know, with dynamic weapons. Devonte Adams developing into one of the best receivers of the league. I thought he'd be good. I didn't see this coming, but at the same time, they don't have a clear-cut dynamic option to pair with them. Like, you have, like, you need a tight end to emerge. Like, in addition to that, they don't really have too many options. The fact that, you know, they didn't use the draft to really add anything. They duplicated when you talk about adding A.J. Dillon to, you know, to pair with Aaron Jones, who's already, you know, a pro bowl caliber running back, you know, in the backfield. So I just feel like there's too many question marks and too many holes on offense.

you know, surrounding Aaron Rogers Granted. He can make players around him better. I mean, you're counting on Alan Lazzard to take the next step in his development. Don't get me wrong. Like, that's possible, but I'm not going to bank on it, especially, you know, in such a tough division where you have Minnesota and Chicago. I don't know how, you know, that that team kind of jumps into the Super Bowl conversation. And the Super Bowl is, forgive me, the defense is definitely fantastic, too.

So, we'll see. Okay. So, but I shaded the Packers on my first ever ringer pod too, and I got a lot of hate for it. I still do. But let's quickly move on from that. All right, here's my tier two. Cowboys. And I think, you know, I read Matt Barry's column this week, and I found it interesting.

Dak Prescott, I've been saying Dak Prescott's praises for a long time. But last year, you had the second most deep completions in the NFL. And they drafted C.D. Lamb, who was tied for second. in the nation with in touchdowns of over 35 plus yards last season. And I just think that when you combine that with the addition by subtraction with Jason Garrett, the fact they kept Kellan Moore for the continuity offseason, all that stuff, I think that there's a case to be made that they take a huge leap. Again, they are the type of team that I would have thought about putting in tier one.

If it was a normal offseason, if Mike McCarthy could have had OTAs and rookie mini-camp and all this stuff. I just think they have a ton of roster talent and they are kind of with the Saints and the bucks for me on tier, you know, 2.0 flat. Okay. Eagles, same thing. I think that the draft and the confusion around that really changed the narrative, but I actually am excited in the fact that, A, they have some roster talent that I think puts them a cut above a lot of teams. The Brandon Brooks injury is massive, massive, massive, massive, but I still think they can overcome that. Miles Sanders is is awesome. He was a leap show candidate for me last year, last week. And I think that Jaylon Hertz is, listen, there's a lot of things they can do there. They really intrigue me.

And so I'm, I'm in on the Eagles as a, as a fringe contender. They need a, they're the dictionary definition of, of a second tier team here where they just need some breaks, but they are firmly in the hunt. I love that coaching staff. Again, Saints and Bucks, both in here because the other exists. Both of them have the real capability to be elite, I would not be surprised if either of them won the Super Bowl. They are just not, if you run the Dr. Strange simulation a million times or whatever. What is it,

is it $20 billion? However many times Dr. Strange stimulates things to figure it out, there are times when the Saints and the Bucks knock each other out as kind of nailed on Super Bowl contenders. Seahawks, same thing. Probably a cut below, but Russell Wilson is just so amazing. I can't discount.

anything. Danny, you're a Seahawks. Even though both of you guys are currently in Washington State, Danny is a Seahawks expert. Danny, if the Seahawks win the Super Bowl this year, what happens? I think if, you know, if we see the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl this year, I think they're going to need a big jump from their defense compared to last year, which I think they can have. I mean, there's a few players on that squad that are set to kind of take a jump. Rishim Green is one that could, I think, you know, be, better than a lot of people think. And, you know, there's, they're going to need guys to take a jump, though, because right now,

they don't have, like, an established pass rush. You know, David Clowney is still a free agent. I think we can, at this point, I think we can expect the offense to be efficient again. Russell, like he said, is just so, so good at making magic in that offense. Even though, you know, I think most Seahawk fans probably feel that the team holds him back a little bit with their scheme and with their philosophy. But at the end of the day, I mean, this is like a 10 win team almost every year, as long as Russell Wilson's in her center.

And so I think to me, for them to be a Super Bowl contender, I think we have to see the defense kind of make a surprising jump. Getting Quadrae Diggs last year was a big help for them in the secondary. I think Marquis Blare is a guy that could emerge as a difference maker for them. Obviously, there's question marks with Quentin Dunbar, but he was acquired to be, you know, another addition to that secondary. We don't know if he's going to play this year because of the arrest. But yeah, I just think there's several question marks in the defense.

The offense, I think, is something that we can probably depend on to be very efficient again, though. And so, yeah, I think that's kind of where they stand. If they get a jump on defense, I think that makes them that strongly in that second tier. I thought about floating them as a Super Bowl pick. but the question marks they have are the same as every other tier two team and so it doesn't even make much chance except that I'm just a Russell Wilson stand

Caitlin correct me if I'm wrong did you have the Colts in tier two I did not I think the one team that was different was Pittsburgh from all you guys okay so I do have Pittsburgh again because again I have every team in the NFL

in my tier two but so take me through the Colts because I think that Philip Rivers was not Philip Rivers last year. And you put him behind a good line. You put him in infrastructure. I think that there's real case to be made. Darius Leonard, obviously, the health there is a question. But I think that if he can play 16 games, you already have Quentin Nelson. I mean, you have Chris Ballard's ability to crush the draft. I now just trust implicitly. And I think that there's a real case to be made

that this team could start really hot. And we're going, oh, my God, we slept on the Colts all year. I think that they are actually higher on my tier two than probably most people would be at coaching staff, the front office. I'm starting to believe in the Colts. It's just a matter of there's just two amazing teams in the AFC, and it's really, really hard to break into that tier. Kaelin, why did you have the Colts in Tier 3 and not Tier 2? Again, like it's that continuity factor. I think, granted, you know, the AFC South outside of, you know, Houston is probably pretty wide open. And I think that, you know, like you mentioned, Indianapolis's defense is top-notch, especially when you mentioned Darius Leonard when he's healthy.

Lee Cooker when he's healthy as well. But I don't know. Like, I think that there's just too many question marks within the office, like what makes them dynamic. I think that they definitely have a shot to, you know, compete for the top of the division. But I'm a little bit suspect on Phil Rivers right now, you know, jumping in and immediately giving that offense, you know, taking it to another level than say Jacoby Brissa was doing last season. Yeah, I mean, it's Philip Rivers is a question mark. And that's why they're firmly tier two, especially when you talk about older quarterbacks

and what they can deliver in a new situation. And again, learning chemistry and learning your receivers on Zoom is not the same as having 10 to 15 real organized workouts. It's the same thing as the bucks for me where I don't know. They're going to high schools in Tampa. am I supposed to buy into the chemistry that can develop there when you're not in the building? And it's something I've talked to Patriots people about this. And it's not just, as I've talked about before, the thing where you know, you can go over to Josh McDaniels and say, hey, let's run that that play we ran 2007.

It's not in a playbook, but we can teach these guys in the huddle. It's not just that. It's just knowing where everybody is in the building and knowing who to go to for this and that. And all of a sudden, Tom Brady's going to have to learn this. stuff on July 28th. Philip Rivers is going to have to learn the stuff on July 28th. And there's just, you're going to be a step behind. Both of those teams can win the Super Bowl.

It's easy. They're both untalented teams. They're both playing for good offensive coaches. They both have talent on both sides of the ball. But when I think about just the slow to develop learning curve they're going to be on, that's why I hesitate a little bit to put them in the upper, upper upper echelon of teams. Vikings kind of same boat as they've been in the last couple years, talent on both sides of the ball comes down to Kirk Cousins. But if Kirk Cousins being

the X factor is a nice problem to have. I just really believe in Kirk Cousins and I think he can he can snap. And I think that there's there's a case to be made that we're probably not talking about the Vikings enough in the top tier. Bills, we already addressed them a little bit. The the Josh Allen thing is still so unknowable, especially in an offseason like this, that I just, I'm not ready to throw myself into

Bill's hype, even though I just adore there so much of the things they've done. Is anyone higher on the bills than I am? I've got them in tier two. Like I mentioned, but they kind of snuck in for me. I think their defense is awesome.

And continually, very, very consistent, which, you know, historically defense is not super like consistent year to year. You can't necessarily depend on it. But I feel like we can depend on the bills being a very good defensive team. So, you know, I think that's... And Shaw McDermott.

Sean McDermott being there helps. Very good, very, very good coach in terms of, yeah, that plus the consistency. They return most of their players, most of their key players, the great secondary. So I think we can probably depend on that defense, providing that foundation. And, you know, obviously they traded for Stefan Diggs. That should help on offense. But yeah, there's just, to me, there's just still question marks on consistency with Josh Allen. I think he's got obviously a ton of potential and ton of talent.

And he proved greatly from year one to year two. So if he makes another jump, then, you know, all bets are off. So that's where I would put them. I'd say that's the big key. If Josh Allen can make that big jump, then they become Super Bowl contenders for me. I'm so excited to introduce the Bukari Sellers podcast in partnership with the Ringer. We're tackling the issues of the day through interviews with high-profile guests and conversations with a rotating panel of the country's best and leading thinkers, influencers, and writers.

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you get your podcast. Okay, so Caitlin and I both have the Steelers. Danny, do you have the Steelers in Tier 2 or Tier 3? I do have them in Tier 2. I think. you know okay they showed defensively that they're still a very very good team that way again that's a good foundation for them but then getting Rothsburger back getting that high flying high octane offense back assuming Rothsburger kind of hits the ground running I think there's still you know up there what they were able to do last year you know with the quarterback situation that they had last year was pretty remarkable so I think I still think this is a team to be to be fear you know to fear in that in that division in that

conference if the Steelers win the Super Bowl, what went right for them? Aside from Rothesberger Health. I mean, their defense continued to play at a high level. They finished third in defensive DVOA last season. I mean, you look at the weapons that they have. Offensively, too, I think Deontze Johnson can take a next step. Juju Smith, Schuster, who definitely took a step back last season.

If he recaptured some of the form that we saw from his rookie season, I definitely think, you know, I think as long as they have the offensive weapons that play at a consistent level and the defense continues to play at that high level that they did last year. They definitely, I think are really strong options

to compete for a Super Bowl. They were dead last in DVOA offensively. Yeah. They were dead last and having a good quarterback. Yeah. So I agree with you

and I think that sometimes you don't learn about an infrastructure until you subtract. Even though Brothesberger has been hurt, in the past. And you've had Andrew Jones weeks or whatever.

Last year, I think I learned to, I had a new respect for Mike Tomlin at the end of the season. I didn't have at the beginning. I've always respected Mike Tomlin. I'm just saying there's a new level of respect for me for Mike Tomlin. It almost reminds me a little bit, a little tiny bit of the Matt Castle year in New England,

where you just say, wow, this is this foundation that has been built here is pretty strong. And I think that with both the Patriots and the Steelers, there's a reason that they're always in the hunt. Obviously, the Patriots are a better organization and have had more success in the last 15 years. But I think generally, I learned to appreciate the Steelers infrastructure even more last year. All right. I have the Titans in Tier 2. Do you guys have them in Tier 2 or Tier 3?

I've got them in Tier 2. You have them in Tier 3, Kaelin? Yeah. I think it and I guess it's because I took the question very literally like where you have to have all the breaks happen. Yeah. So last, so the only reason, the only reason if you, Kaelan, I agree with you and they're a tier three team. But they played themselves into being a tier two team in the month of January. They're a tier three roster.

They're a a tier two just on paper. tier three, in practicality, they're tier two, from my perspective. And I just have a hard time. And it's the same thing with the Packers, too. I have a hard time. If a team gets to the NFC championship game or the NFC championship game, in my opinion,

especially in a year, right, I don't think there's going to be a lot of leaps. I think that they, I think that you have to consider those teams at least semi-legitimate contenders. And so I think that, or legitimate contenders. And I think that, the Titans from me, a full year of Ryan Tannahill is important.

I think Arthur Smith has taken the leap as an offensive coordinator and did last year. And there's a lot of respect for him. Evan Silva mentioned him last year, last week is the type of guy who's going to be a head coaching candidate at the end of this year. I think one more year of Derek Henry is important. And I think that they just, listen, they don't have a lot of holes. And we saw that last year. And Mike Vrabble is a good coach. And he got more out of them than.

anybody expected. At the end of the day, Kalam, this is a team that goes 9 and 7 a lot. That's what they do. And they probably should be a tier 3 team. But I put them in tier 2 just because of what they were able to do against Lamar Jackson and

to get in position. Listen, they had a lead against the Chiefs, which a lot of teams did in the playoffs and lost it. And so I just, I think that they are better than they should be and I'm putting them in tier 2. Where are you on the Titans go? That's definitely fair.

And I think all the points that you mentioned, like the fact that they did play in the AFC championship game, the fact that they, you know, show up in January where it matters, and they don't have a lot of holes. They added Vic Beasley in addition to the tough defense that they already had last season. Again, I just, I think, you know, the level that Ryan Tannenhill played at last season,

definitely, you know, I'd like to see it happen one more time. Granted, like he did, don't give me wrong, he definitely played himself into the contract that year. Like, he definitely played at a high level. But, you know, you need that to be replicated this season. And he definitely has a chance to when you look at the weapons that he happened on the outside. Like, AJ Brown ended up being one of the best, you know, receivers in the league at one point. So it's definitely possible.

I just, again, like, I'm just suspect of it, you know, happening again. So that's why. I agree with you. I agree with you. The roster talent to me is really important. But at the end, again, they went in it. They've gone nine and seven, four straight years. They've, Rabel's only been to coach twice,

two of those four years. But I get, it's not like they've popped in the regular season just yet. Does anyone know, without looking, the last time the Titans won double-digit games? It was 2008.

Oh, 2008. It's amazing. They've won nine games. They've won nine games five times in that span. They've gone three and 13 in that span. Got Ken Wisenhunt, fired mid-season.

But anyway, yes. They are the type of team that, again, another sort of definition of this tier where I could see them easily improving in a handful of areas in regular season and winning 12 games. I can also see them saying a little bit stagnant and getting that Tanna Hill regression. And I just think that it's, I can go either way on the Titans. And I think that it's fair that some of us have them in tier two and some of us have them in tier three. All right, tier three, Kaelin, wait, wait, this is a big one.

New England Patriots. Yeah. The team that basically makes a Super Bowl almost every single year. Where are they for you, Kailen? They're in tier three. They're squarely in tier three for me. And that's...

Real quick. Danny, you two? Yeah, I've got to make. in tier three. It feels like a trap. It does feel like a trap. And that's what I want to get to. What were you going to say? So, I mean, I have them in tier three because one to the vision, I mean, suspect division outside of Buffalo. And again, like we've only seen it happen once with Tom Brady. But, you know, Jared Stidham just happens to be, you know, Bill Belichick's reincarnate of Tom Brady.

And I mean, they have a decent enough offense, Nikil Harry and Julian Edelman on the outside. that's solid. Muhammad's new as well. The running game should be solid. They have a decent offensive line. And again, their defense consistently is somehow, you know, always the top 10 units. So we'll see. So Danny, spell out why they're in tier three for you before I get to my tier two argument.

So I think it comes down to the quarterback, honestly. That's the main thing. I don't have any doubt in their defense. I think their defense is going to be very, very strong. and that's, you know, something that very much solidifies their ability to be a playoff contender. I just, I guess, I don't put them in tier two

because I think a few things need to go right on the offensive side of the ball. Dante Scarnacia retired. Am I right about that? So that, I was just looking at him. I couldn't remember if he was talking about doing it, or if he actually did it, but he did retire. He's retired before and come back.

So who knows, but. He's the Michael Jordan of offensive line coaches in a number of ways. Yeah. All anyone needs to do is talk trash to him and he'll be back. He's been a big factor, I think, for their ability to be such a solid run team. I don't think Sony Michelle is a good high-level running back at this point that's going to be creating a lot for himself. Obviously, there's huge, huge question marks at the quarterback spot. So quarterback plus a run game, plus I think, you know,

Nikiel Harry's still a question mark. Julian Edelman's not getting a younger. You know, I just think there's multiple question marks that multiple things that need to happen offensively for them to have a balanced approach to, for me to put them in tier two. I think there's just so many different moving parts on offense that that's basically why I put them. But again, like it's Belichick. You don't have to worry about the game planning.

You don't really have to worry about that defense. So they were really on the cuss for me. I didn't really know exactly where to put them. But at this point, I don't trust Jared Stidham or, you know, if it's going to be Hoyer at starter. I just don't trust either of those guys yet. So I have them as tier two for a handful of reasons. Number one, incredible defense last year.

Yeah. That I think that even though, as you say, defense is not sticky from one year to the next and it can be inconsistent, I still believe in Stefani Gilmore. as a shutdown corner. I still believe in a lot of that talent. I believe in the best defensive mind in the history of the game, Bill Belichick.

They had the best coach in the history of the game. They still have Josh McDaniels. The ability for them to win in scheme has been extremely consistent over the past two decades. I go back to something that happened in 2011, which was that Bill Belichick changed his defensive scheme

because he knew that with limited practice time after the lockout that you needed to simplify things. And what happened to 2011, they made the Super Bowl and they had briefly a juggernaut that got derailed again by Eli Manning. But I think if anyone can get an edge

in the quarantine off season and in the weirdness, it's going to be Bill Belichick. If you were to draft coaches who can get an edge over Zoom, you would take Bill Belichick first probably. And yes, I think by my definition of tier two,

the fact that the quarterback is a complete unknown should disqualify them. But they have basically every other element of a team that should pop. And I would not be surprised at all if somehow they're 12 and 4 and we're going, oh my God, how do we count out the Patriots? That's why I have them in tier 2 is it's literally, would I be surprised if they are going to the Super Bowl? in the isolation Super Bowl in Tampa. Like that's that none of us are going to go to.

That is why I'm okay putting the Patriots in this tier. All right. So I have almost nobody in my tier three. Kalen, hit us with your tier three. Okay, so it's a lot of teams. I have the Rams, the Bears, the Packers, like you mentioned, the Cardinals, the Titans, the Browns, the Patriots, the Colts, the Broncos, Buccaneers, Washington, and the Raiders.

Okay. Love the Washington one. I love this. I love this. All right. There are a handful I want to outline here. Okay. Number one, the Bears.

Is this a Nick Foles thing? Is this a defense thing? Is this a Matt Neggie rebound thing? Oh, wow. See, I'm going under the assumption that Tribusky ends up somehow working off Mick Foles and, you know, they... Ted Ginson. said that this week. Ted Ginn said this week.

He said he really did. He said he thinks that Mitch Trubisky's going to be the starter. He plays for the Bears. He knows more than us. And so, yeah, no, there are, there's some Trubisky mentum. Yeah, but and I think he was like one of the most accurate. Like there's some weird stuff that PFF put out, like, where he was like one of the most accurate on DPS's last season.

And I think that's the only thing that, you know, we need to start training camp. We need to start training camp on time if we're getting into Mitch, Mitch Trubisky hype in July. All right, go ahead. Anyway, yeah, I mean, I'm not that big a fan of this. But I mean, like that being said, like, I mean, he's got to improve. I mean, you, Matt Harmon's reception, the thing that he put out, like, every year, you show, it revealed that Alan Robinson had one of the most, you know,

productive receiving seasons last season and still only finished, I think, like, when it's been the top five, was it like, definitely, we weren't thinking, oh, Al Robbins is the best receiving in the league. And that's on a part of Mitch Trubisky. I mean, they have a ton of weapons around him. I mean, they have 20 million tight ends the boot. But at the same time, you know, I just don't know where Chicago, as far as, like, defense, don't get me wrong. Defense is great, especially when you talk about Cleo Mac on the edge.

But, I mean, the division is tough for one. And again, that question mark at quarterback is so massive. We saw the regression from year one to year two for Chubisky was, I mean, a free fall. So I don't trust, you know, them being in tier two yet. I think that can change. but they were definitely on the cost for me. Yeah, no, it's interesting. And I don't have the Bears as a team, I think, could win the Super Bowl in any, with any meaningful path.

Now, listen, there's always these crazy surprises. And I think if we did this last year, would we have the 49ers as an absolute, either a tier two or two or three team? I actually don't even remember. We've had, I tend to default, even though I gave that Patriots argument to just when you have an elite quarterback. And if you don't, then you have to do a lot of other things. And the Bears simply have not just, how did you have just not done enough? The tight ends thing is amazing.

Maybe it's like the old fantasy football strategy where they're just going to start trading their tight ends and they're not going to get Deshaun Watson. Like they're just, they're going to trade the three worst tight ends. All right. Danny, any argument for the Bears? I've got them in this tier also in tier three. I kind of see them as a very good defense. I think their defense is going to continue to be good, if not bad.

better. I mean, they're getting Kim Hicks back for a full season. You know, they've made a few additions over the offseason. I don't know if Robert Quinn's going to be a massive, massive upgrade, but he could be. You know, Khalil Mack is still there. He still has that game wrecking presence. So defensively, I think they'll be good. They have a good secondary to too. And so the big question for me, there's multiple questions. It's almost like the same argument as the Patriots. Defense, I think is going to be good. But I have multiple questions on offense. Number one, who's going to be quarterback? I tend to lean Foles. But the fact that it's a huge question right now tells you a lot.

And I think I'm not confident necessarily that either guy is going to make a huge jump this season for them offensively. So that's a big question mark. The other question mark is, are they going to have a good run game? David Montgomery was not good as a rookie. I expected a lot more from him. I don't know if he can be an elite running back or if you'll fall into that Sony Michelle level thing where it's like just a replacement guy that can't make anybody miss really. So those are the two question marks. I think, you know, like Kailen said,

Alan Robinson's probably the most underrated receiver in the NFL. He's just been stuck with bad quarterbacks his whole career. I think Anthony Miller's a good underrated player who's on that, you know, up and up. And so I think that their receiving core is good. And, you know, Kevin, you know me. I love Ted Ginn. So he's still hanging around. I forgot.

What an early ringer meme that was is that you took the Ted Ginn corner. forgot about that. I think I said he was going to have a thousand yards receiving or something and you guys just like roasted me over it forever. But he wasn't he wasn't awful that year. Now I'm looking it up. I think he had that season if I'm remembering correctly seven seven hundred and eighty-seven. So what? I wasn't like way off. I wasn't yeah. I necessarily didn't actually nail it. But yeah. 11.2 yards per target. I love this. 35 years old. Yeah. I mean, he's made a good, he's made a good career. I covered Ted Ginn when he was a rookie when I was in college.

I covered the Dolphins down as a sophomore in college. It's a long story. But Ted Ginn was like the hot shot rookie that we had to write a bunch of stories about. Yeah. But yeah, getting back to the Bears overall, I think that's just kind of where I am with them. The question marks are purely on, on offense. And if that offense can kind of finally be what I think a lot of people hoped it would be under, under Nagy. and that to me is a huge question in multiple areas. So that's why I'm in tier three. But I do think the defense gives them a foundation. So, Kaelin, you had the Cardinals and Browns, which I actually lump together in, and neither of them are in my tier three, only because I just tend to think that it's hard for anybody to make a jump.

And I love, love, love, love, Kyler Murray. And I think that these guys, if the discussion is who can I see getting. a wild card spot, then yeah, these teams are definitely in it. But the Super Bowl, I think the bar is higher for me. Both of these teams have a ton of talent and a ton of exciting players. John Drew Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, really exciting players on defense. What happens for both of these teams? How do these teams win the Super Bowl in your mind? What is the path that you've laid out in Tier 3? Wow. So for Cleveland, I mean, it really comes down to the Baker Mayfield. I thought last season, like similar we I feel like it wasn't

talked about enough he's severely regressed you know with the amount of weapons that they placed around him when you talk about O'Dell Beckham Jarvis Landre regressed in strange ways too I mean not it wasn't just normal it was just like what what

is this a different person exactly like the thing his thing that he hung his hat on was his accuracy and it seemed like he could not you know hit a brick wall last so I mean it is often if he gets it together I think that the offense takes a significant jump.

Last season they finished 20th and offensive BVOA. So I think that there's definitely room for improvement there. Again, like on top of, you know, the fact that they have playmakers all over the field, their secondary is pretty legit. So I think that Cleveland, you know, if the path, you know, again, a lot of breaks would have to happen. But it starts primarily with Baker Mayfield, you know, getting it together and kind of taking advantage of what's, you know, in place around him. Yeah, no, I'm in agreement with you.

I think that as far as they can be good, I think the Freddie Kitchens edition by subtraction cannot be overstated. That's just, that is one of the biggest addition by subtractions right now in football. And I think that the Cardinals, I think Cliff Hingsbury got better every single week last year as a coach. And I liked that higher a lot. And I did not like at the beginning. I have learned. I've grown to like that higher.

And I think that there's a real case to be made that they can be a 10-win team. That division is really tough. But the good news is there's extra playoff spots coming. And so I think that the Cardinals to me are the team to watch in the NFC. The Browns, listen, they've got a real uphill battle with the Steelers and the Ravens in their division. And it's going to be hard for them. From my perspective, even though the Titans made the AFC championship game online, last year, it's still really hard to win a road playoff game.

And part of the reason is because the best teams are so good now that once you get that by, you're pretty much, you're good. And I just, I start to think about the Brown's path. And I don't necessarily love it. All right, the Broncos, this is important because the Broncos, there's a Drewlock hive out there that just will not, will not cease to stopping the Drewlock hive. Danny, did you have the Broncos in your tier three? No, I did not.

I have them out of the running at this point. So we'll let, we'll let Kaelin defend the Broncos take and then, Danny, you can say why you didn't have them in. Kaylin? Okay. Well, I mean, again, like you mentioned, the Drew Locke hype, if they somehow were able to, you know, unlock what is there with him at quarterback, I think that they're going to be legit, you know,

within a pretty, outside of Kansas City, I mean, it's a pretty weak division. You get the Raiders in the charges twice. I think there's definitely a shot when you talk about getting easy wins. But, I mean, like, if Bond Miller's helped you to defensive line, the passures that they have between Miller and Bradley Chub, they're going to continue to be disruptive. Again, I really think that it comes down to, you know, their defense taking that, you know, playing at a high level, but their offense, taking that next step. And I think we saw, you know, John Elway, you know, make a commitment to surrounding lock with some weapons. when you talk about Jerry, Judy, and some of the other pieces that they added.

So I think that I'm not saying that they're a high pick in Tier 3 if we're going to separate, you know, the levels within the tier. But, you know, they're at Tier 3 for me. Like if some magical run happened. Danny, did you even think about the Broncos? I did. And now I'm rethinking it. I think Caleb's kind of talking me into this because now that now that I'm thinking about it a little bit more, especially the fact that the division is kind of wide open. makes it a little bit more interesting to me.

So my... Wait, the division is wide open with the Can City Chiefs. Sorry, the second in the division. Yes, second. Oh, okay. You know what I mean? Because there's more, like I said, there's more playoff spots.

Was there realignment? Was that, is this like baseball style realignment where they're playing different teams this year? Go ahead. No, so initially what I was thinking about it is like, we don't know what Drew Locke is going to be. He showed some flashes, but, you know, there's still a huge amount

of question marks. Their offensive line has been a major problem. But the more I'm thinking about, I'm like, yeah, this team actually could be a lot better than we think. They traded for AJ Bouillier. They're getting Bradley Chub back. I think he only played like three games last year or something like that. They traded for Jarrell Casey, which was

another, it's like the Kelly Campbell trade. They've done some great business this offseason. They've really, I mean, I think that this goes back to the DeCosta thing, but I think the best strategy you can possibly have is just wait around for teams to either be capped out or want to get rid of a guy and to say, here's a low pick for this guy. And then, and then you get value. That's how

you do it. You don't trade fifth round picks for kickers or whatever. And I think that the Broncos committed themselves to getting value and, and it's helped them. I just don't think they're there yet. Again, are they in the contention for being good? Yes, but I don't necessarily see them having a path to the Super Bowl. But I'm, I'm open to suggestions. However, I'm not putting them on the list retroactively like Danny Kelly is. Sticking to it. I'm, I'm just really, excited to see Jerry Judy KJ Hamler, no fan. I mean, they added Melvin Gordon, which is, you know, not necessarily a huge difference maker, but their offense is stacked now, especially with Corton Sutton, I think,

ascending to be one of the top receivers in the NFL at some point here. And they got, you know, they got Jerry Judy. So I don't know. There's a lot of question marks with this team, but there's definitely a world where I could see it all kind of fall right for them. So I'm definitely, I'm on board, Caitlin. So, Danny, give us your tier three. And by the way, the fact that we're editing so much while we talk shows the persuasive power of all of us.

And I'm really proud. I'm really proud. All right. Before, I want to talk about two more teams on your list, Kail. And you probably know which two teams they are. But I want to get Danny's list first so we can just dive in and then we can compare notes. My, my tier three is Patriots, Bears, Texans, Falcons, Colts, Browns, Broncos. Bears, Brown.

So you have the Browns as well. I do, yeah. Okay. So I don't, I don't have the bears, again, I don't have the bears or the Browns, but I can be talked into the Browns more than the Bears probably. Yeah. So the Browns to me are that post-type team. I mean, obviously.

Yep. Almost like what the Niners were. Yes. It's like they have so much talent. We were a year late. We're all year early and then everyone forgot about them. And then it's like, oh, wait, these guys have a lot of roster talent. and they have a good coach.

So let's walk through it real quick. Number one, I think O'Dell Beckham is one of the top bounceback candidates for the season. I mean, he was battling a core muscle injury we found out all last season, which I think can have a huge, huge effect. He's one of the top receivers in the NFL when he's healthy. Jarvis Landry, very underrated. I think they're going to do a lot of two tight-in sets. So those two guys are their top receivers. Then they have, they added Austin Hooper.

They have Dave and Joku. I think it's still really good. And they also added an elite tackle. in Jedrick Will's. So their offensive line, I think, looks pretty good. The running back group in Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt is maybe the best in the NFL. They have a very talented defense. Miles Garrett, sorry, is going to be, I think, one of the top passers in the NFL.

They still have Shelton Richardson. If Olivier Vernon can make a jump for them, that would be really big. They have a really interesting secondary with Denzel Ward, Gritty Williams. They drafted Grant Delpit, who I think is an underrated player. So I don't know They're one of those teams where They kind of remind me You know going back to like the Rams where you have like a really stacked

Lineup stacked roster And they just need someone to like make it all like coalesce together And maybe Kevin Sifansky is that guy We'll find out they're in tier three because there's multiple questions That need to be answered But I think they have the talented They haven't talented enough roster For you know

Savancy can come in and like make everything you know gel together, then it wouldn't like be shocking to me. Yeah, no, it would not be shocking for me to see this team go 10 and 6, 11, and 5. It's just the division for me is a question and taking big leaps is a question. And this is, I don't think this is a typical

typical season, even though Jim Harbaugh came in in 2011, everybody said there were going to be no big leaps and then he built that 49th team really quickly. They go to the NFC championship game. They almost go to the Super Bowl. So I think that it can be done. I'm just saying it's an uphill battle

and I'm not ready to commit. to anything. Kalan, you have the Raiders and you have the Washington football team. Those are not on Danny and I's list. Make the case. I'm excited to hear this because I definitely can see, I mean, I could see a path

to both of these teams being sneaky good. The Super Bowl, it might be a bridge too far, but let's hear the path for both those teams. Yeah, I'm kind of talking myself out the Raiders already. But for them, I mean, they're off the line, you know, if they continue to play at, you know,

arguably an elite level with John Jacobs. Like they, that can be, you know, arguably one of the best rushing units in the league. But, you know, the biggest question, Mark, has been, you know, Derek Carr over the past two seasons. Ever since he signed that big extension, you know, has been able to play at a high

level. Nonetheless, get on the same page with John Gruden in this system. think him somehow recapturing that form of, you know, 2017, I believe, when, whenever it was that they won, you know, 12 games in the regular season and then were bounced out of the first 2016, yeah, when he broke his leg. I mean, if he's able to recapture that form somehow, but the question, the biggest thing for them is they don't have a clear cut number one receiver.

So I'm kind of talking myself out of that. They're very, like, literally at the bottom of that list. But as far as Washington, though, I think there's a much stronger case there. when you talk about what they have in place with the Wayne Haskins, Terry McLaren, the rushing attack, like their defense is very, very solid.

I think that there's, you know, more opportunity for Washington, you know, as a tier, you know, again, like a low tier team.

They have a very talented roster. Granted, again, like we talk about the continuity with Ron Rivera coming in. That's not encouraging, I guess, but I think that it is an addition by subtraction. Ron Navarre is a better coach.

Yeah, there you go. Exactly. So I think that that could end up being, you know, potentially. It's not something I'm high on as far as the other things we talked about. They're in the higher part of the tier. But, you know, these are very much fringe tier four, tier three teams. I love it. Yeah, the Raiders are interesting to me. I actually, strangely, am higher on them than I am on Washington. I think that getting Mike Mayock in the building a couple of years ago has done wonders for that operation. I think, Henry Ruggs is a really good receiver. I think Derek Carr and Marcus Mariotta behind him. I don't necessarily think either of those guys are ready to break out in an elite season, but you have two options. And if the rest of the team is elite or great, then I think that the quarterback isn't

necessarily going to be a huge problem, if that makes sense. So I can see them in the hunt for a playoff spot. I think that the Super Bowl might be a bit of a reach, but I can see the case for at least Las Vegas. And I'm a little bit hesitant just because I'm not sure of the operations, you know, they were going to move. They were going to have a lot of their OTAs and then their training in California and then move to Vegas and kind of do it in spurts. I don't actually know how this is all going to work as far as they're moving to Las Vegas when you don't necessarily when the world is where it is. And so I think that that might be a bit of a problem, just not even having a facility,

let alone any continuity. So I think that'll be interesting to see. Okay, my tier three was just the Rams and the Falcons and then half of the Chargers. I can't, I don't know where I am on the Chargers. Does anyone have the Chargers on their tiers? I don't. Okay, so I do. I do only because of the talent that they have on their roster

and the fact that I believe in in, listen, going from five wins to the Super Bowl this year when you lose Philip Rivers is not likely. But for me, when we talk about teams that if everything breaks right, they can win the Super Bowl, I think about a team with Joy Bosa and Darwin James and Keenan Allen and the roster that I think is pretty deep. And I don't know about Tyrod Taylor, but I'd rather take,

I'd rather in this, in this particular tier, have a really good roster and a average quarterback and just hope that the average quarterback can play better than he played in Cleveland and then just ride the talent. So that is probably the team I had the least amount of conviction in, but I just threw them in there. And also, I don't mean to be,

this is not snark at all. If we're playing in front of empty stadiums, sorry, sorry, I knew it's not. are certain teams that will have disadvantages, you know, Arrowhead, incredible place to play, home field advantage. Seattle, incredible place to play,

home field advantage. Our buddies at the Chargers have never, they don't have much to lose in that regard. Okay, so that is, they were born in the darkness. They were born into this. They don't, I'm not saying that's

one of the main reasons they might be good. They have roster talent and all that. And there's a lot of reasons ahead of it. I'm just saying if you start listing 30 reasons why they might be good, one of them is that they're going to lose absolutely nothing if we play in front of either zero fans or like 5,000 fans. They're all set. You're convincing me, Kevin. I'm actually, I'm looking at their roster. Do you have all 32 teams now? I think I've got 22 teams. I'm an optimist. What can I say? I'm just looking at their roster though. Their roster is ridiculously stacked,

especially defensively. And plus they added Chris Harris, which I kind of forgot about. They have an absurd secondary, Casey Hayward, Chris Harris, Derwin James. I mean, I don't know. I guess I can see it.

Yeah, Joey Bosom, I have an Ingram. They've got some really good interior defensive linemen. There's been rumors. I can't remember where I heard it, but there's been talk that they're going to try and run like the Ravens style offense

with Tyrod Taylor, where they're using him as a runner a lot. So maybe that will catch people off. guard and give them like that edge on offense that I think a lot of people maybe expect the offense to go backwards, you know, after switching quarterbacks. But, you know, maybe they're more, maybe they're more dangerous. Maybe they're more dynamic that way. So they obviously have Austin Neckler's who's really dynamic back. And so, man, now you're talking me into it. All right. So they're all in our tier ones. The charges are number one team.

I'm moving them to tier three. We're going to recap the teams that are on nobody's list. me if I'm wrong way of this stuff. So the lions are on nobody's list. No one believes in the Matthew Stafford comeback season or Darryl Beville or Matt Patricia. I would actually argue that Matt Patricia first coach fired is a pretty good bet. Although the ownership change, I think, with the Ford family going to the daughter and not Martha, I think that new owners might tend to be a little slower the decision making. So Matt Patricia first coach fired is now up for debate. no one said the New York Giants anybody care no no god um Carolina Panthers just in a weird rebuild no one has made a case for them maybe three years from now I do like Teddy Bridgewater

I do like Christian McCaffrey's talents but it's just their their offseason's been a little too confusing bangles Joe Burrow T. Higgins I like that that building block but that's just we're not there yet right every team in the AFC West was a case for Jets and the Dolphins. Silence speaks volumes. I do like the Dolphine. I think the dolphins are going to be like good for a bad team this year. Dolphins are a good 2021 team for me, I think.

Absolutely. I love Brian Forrest. Love him. And I do not. The Jets, I just think we're going to be getting a lot of stories about Jamal Adams the next couple of weeks. And I'm really excited about it.

Jamal, it's good, really good player. But I just think they've got a ways to go. Jackson and Jaguars. Also, no case to be made for them. That's a team that's playing a long game too. All right, well, I feel good about this. We've properly sorted out who's a contender and who's not. And I appreciate you guys stopping by.

Yeah, that's fun. This has been the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network.