The Ringer NFL Show - How to Fix the Chargers, and Who Can Actually Win the Super Bowl? | Dual Threat

Episode Date: December 14, 2023

Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz open the show by figuring out how to solve the Los Angeles Chargers' issues. Then, they go through all the Super Bowl contenders and debate who can bring home the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifitz, and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football show on Spotify. I'm Steve. We have a great show this week, as always. And it's starting with a very important question. We're not going to do so much this episode on Chargers, Raiders, Thursday Night Football. But we thought we would expand the first. frame a little bit and look ahead and ask the question on everyone's minds, how do we fix the chargers? News came out this week that after he got hurt on Sunday, Justin Herbert had surgery on his fractured right index finger. So he is on IR for the first time in his career in the NFL. He is out for the year. And I think this has to be, this has to sort of mark some kind of of end of an era in L.A. because despite all of the Chargers struggles and ups and downs and drama over the last several seasons since Justin Herbert took over there, they've always been

relevant. And right now, you know, Brandon Staley is still there, but they just aren't a team that is contending for anything. They're not even keeping it close. It's not just sort of errors of execution, the little decisions and mishaps that have sort of defined the times that they've come up short, or at least we're used to defining the times that they come up short. It's kind of a bigger picture struggle than that. There are only four teams in the entire league with a worse record than the Chargers. So we thought it would be a good sort of time to figure out where they have to go. and what big picture would get this team that still has an excellent,

excellent quarterback, albeit an injured one right now. Back to relevancy and back closer to the potential that it still feels like they should have when Herbert is healthy and potentially with a new coach next season and a slightly cleaner slate. So, Stephen, how did you approach this question? of how to fix the Chargers, how to save them from themselves. First thing I did was look at the roster.

And I asked myself, which of these players do I feel confident should be on the team in three years? And it will be a good thing if they're still on the team. And I came up with one guy, and that's outside of Herbert, of course. And that's Rashan Slater, the left tackle. But outside of him,

I'm not sure that any of the other people in the starting lineup are going to be on this team in 2025. or 2026. Like Quentin Johnson, Josh Palmer, Keenan Allen, Zion Johnson, the first round pick

from two years ago, who's really struggled. I don't think he's been a good player at all in the NFL. Will Klapp, Jamari's Sailor, Trey Pipkins, Gerald Everett,

Austin Echler, Sebastian Joseph Day, Nick Williams, Austin Johnson, Eric Kendricks, Kenneth Murray, Khalil Mack, Dion Leonard.

Derwin James is like, is questionable. He's borderline, but he's like aging. He's very, expensive and he rarely is on the field for a full 16 or 17 games late. And then the secondary, I'm not even going to name the rest of the secondary. It's just not very good.

So like you said in three years? Yeah, in three years. Even two years I would put, I would, I would limit it to. Because I think like Keenan Allen is still a very good player as we've seen this year. But I think we're getting, yeah, we're getting to the point where he's probably going going downhill eventually. Derwin James, I would say the same thing. Like Khalil Mack is a good player, but he's aging.

And he's expensive. And like, that's the thing you could say about this whole entire roster, even the good parts. It's expensive and it's aging outside of Justin Herbert. So I think this starts from the top, from the GM office down. Like, I really don't think Staley is the one to blame for this mess this year. I think it's on the GM and the construction of this roster. So the first thing I would do is hire a new GM and move on from Tom Tolesco after what's been, he's had a long shot at this thing at running this team and they haven't gotten any closer to winning a championship.

Is there anything sort of philosophically, do you think it's just bad choices? Or is there anything philosophically that if you hired a new general manager, you'd be saying, I don't like that Telesco has run the team this way. I want someone who runs the team in a different way. Yeah, I think it's like the idea, just like a modern approach to team building. I think when Telesco was hired, it was a different era and we kind of judge GMs in a different way. he's known for his scouting. That's how he was hired.

And we've seen those guys, like that GM archetype, kind of have difficulty over the last five years because you're going up against these guys that are finding these little edges all over the place. And when you're not finding those edges

and all of a sudden you're scouting, which we know, like drafting good players is always hard to do. It's hard to replicate that year after year. So once you lose that edge and these guys have these other edges that are more reliable year to year, you fall behind.

And I feel like he fell behind. I think there was a time when he was very good at building a roster. Like there is a reason why all of us drink the Chargers spool-aid every off-season. It's because on paper, this roster looks good. But over the last couple of years, it's just gotten old. And they haven't been able to replace that talent with young talent outside of Pervert. The thing that I think it is or that I would be asking GM candidates questions about is just sort of like when you have, everybody has a philosophy and everybody has to have principles

and has to have things that they go for. But how determined are you for everyone to fit your physical ideals, just your sort of player ideals? Because if you look at that roster and you see that this roster really lacks depth, has a lot of holes. To me, one of the number one things that they have to do is find a way to get younger at receiver. Because Keenan Allen, Austin Neckler, and Gerald Everett,

I'm talking about past catchers in general, I guess, is really what I mean. but those three have been the top pass catchers for Justin Herbert this season, and they are the oldest trio of leading pass catchers in the league. And obviously, Mike Williams's injury is not helping them, but it also wouldn't make them all that much younger. And so in one sense, they did kind of try to fix this. They drafted Quentin Johnson just last spring,

and there you go. First round charges receiver. We were all excited about it, but he just, he hasn't really caught on there. Actually, his best performance seemed to be once Easton Stick entered the game on Sunday,

which I don't know if that makes you feel great. But he's got 33 yards on the season so far, which is really disappointing. And he can obviously develop from here. I don't think that, you know, it's too early to just go, okay, bust, pitch the wrong guy. but you look at how some of the other

guys drafted during that little run that happened in the 20s there are performing and there's probably some regret over that pick and then you look at okay why did they make that pick he's 6'4 he's 215 pounds

he's just he is the guy who Tom Telesco likes the prototype and that's just one example but I do think that that some of the ways in which this team has sacrificed depth is by being really, really set in your ways about what the players they draft fit in terms of physical profile. And I do think that that,

like, it's a problem related to depth specifically because I actually can hear a pretty strong argument for it's the first round. Like, Quentin Johnson was the 21st overall pick. That's a valuable pick for a team that, you know, has had decent records and isn't going to wind up very easily with a super, super high pick, you want to be sure, or as sure as you can be about someone who you're spending that draft pick on. When you get into the slightly later rounds, teams should take flyers. You should take flyers on different types of plus tools. You should take flyers on guys who have just just produced.

a really high level. And I think the Chargers, philosophically, in terms of how they draft, they just look for their type of guys. And some of the high picks have hit. Yeah. But it's really not led to them being able to round out that team. So that's one thing to me. And specifically, when you look at that roster, the aging of the past catching core would be one of the first things to address. You talked about the front office. I do think there's an elephant in the room about coaching. It seems like Brandon Staley is not, is probably not going to be with them next season. Obviously, nothing's happened yet. What would you do? I know we talked about this the other week a little bit, but where is your head in terms of what to do about the coaching situation?

Like last time we had this discussion, I offered up Bill Belichick for the Chargers and now that I'm talking about the GM and needing to be more modern. I don't know if that's the best pick at this point, because Belichick has not proven capable of finding the right receivers, finding the right way to build a modern roster. So I don't know if he's the right guy, but I think just finding, like, I don't think Brandon Staley, this is going to sound weird because he obviously failed as the head coach.

Or he is failing as the head coach. But like, he got to the playoffs and he's going to end with like a near, 500 record and this roster is really bad. I don't think like, oh, we need to find a totally different coach who brings us in a totally different direction. I think if you just find another coach who is more I don't know, who isn't like a replacement

level coach. That's where I would put Brandon Staley on the spectrum of head coaches. I would put him as a replacement level head coach. I think if you find a good one, I don't know what his philosophy has to be to get the most out of this roster, but as you find a good one, I think you'll be in a good spot with this quarterback. Might I offer you one Daniel Quinn.

Oh, I don't know how to react to that. I mean, yeah, sure. I don't think he would be a bad head coach. I don't know, I don't know how I feel about Quinn, honestly. Because like so much of his falcons tenure, when I look back on it, is based on Kyle Shanahan being awesome. So I don't know how to judge that properly, you know?

Here's the thing. Just in terms of what you were just talking about where the correction, there is probably some danger of an overcorrection from Staley, who I think has looked. At the end of the day, there is a results requirement. And by that metric, he is inarguably an unsuccessful head coach there.

And sometimes I think you just need a change, need to say that things didn't go the way you hoped, move on. I wouldn't mind them. sticking with a defensive head coach because I do think that Staley has had some good moments, has had his best moments as head coach of the Chargers in defensive game planning. And you don't want to take a step back there, right? So maybe you get someone who has some capability in that department. I don't, I think there are some, I think the problems that they've had with what Kellan Moore has

done with the offense. this year are more personnel related than coaching related and would like to see that get another opportunity, uh, potentially with some changes in personnel. So maybe you're, you stick with the same direction there, um, quit and more, uh, overlapped in Dallas. Maybe there's some relationship there. And maybe that helps. And I do like, and this is a little bit with the Belichick thing. I do, I just like the idea of a steady hand. there. Someone who just who's who's been around the block a few times, I just think it would be, maybe this is just to soothe my own Chargers anxiety, but I think it would be a good temperamental

fit to just get someone who's, who's had a job, who's lost a job, who's lived and learned and loved and lost. And to me, that's Dan Quinn. So part of, part of my five-part plan to fix the Chargers is to hire Dan Quinn. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of like the Jaguar's hiring Doug Peterson. Yeah. All right. That was the idea there. Which went okay.

Yeah, it's going okay. It's still fine. I mean, it hasn't gone as expected this year, but I think it's been a positive hire. My concern, though, with the overcorrection after Staley is, like, hiring an analytics dinosaur and a guy who never goes forward on forth. Because that, like, that's the issue is that we criticize Brandon Staley. And I don't, like, we, I mean, like, the royal we, like the general public. We criticize them for the wrong things. He's not bad because he goes for it on fourth and one.

That's when you're supposed to go for it. He's bad because the defense stinks and can't tackle. So my worry is them like going the other way and like hiring Rex Ryan or something. I guess that's the other way. I couldn't think of a better example. It's different. Different guys, those two. Yeah, I agree with you.

That would be the wrong move. The Ringer NFL show comes out against the Chargers. hiring Rex Ryan to coach the team in 2024. Another thing that I think they have to do is fix the run game. I'm not going to go so far as to say that it has to be like a huge priority in terms of resource allocation. But this offense, the way that Kellyn Moore wants it to run, which philosophically I'm thumbs up for, is not going to work if they continue to have this running game. They came out in week one, and somehow, some way,

they ran for 233 yards against the Dolphins, which was the single best rushing result by success rate for a Chargers game under Brandon's Daily. And then after that game, it never happened again. they have been last in rushing success since then, or I guess they have, they've, they are now last in rushing success since then. It probably took them a while to edge the average down to that point. But even including that game, the Chargers are having one of the worst rushing seasons of all time. There have been 192 team seasons, Bill Barnwell tabulated this for ESPN since 2018.

So all of the teams, all of the seasons that they've been. those teams have had. There's 192 of them since 2018. The Chargers are 188th in rushing success rate. Part of this is not their fault. Yeah, that's bad. They went from having a pretty good to very good center in Corey Lindsay to Will Platt backing him up, who has not been good. Lindsay has missed a season with a heart issue. So I don't know the prognosis of that, obviously, and that's pretty scary.

I do think that a huge issue for them running the ball is they just need better play at center, better play on the offensive line as a whole, but especially in the middle. But I don't think that what Call and Moore wants to do there is going to be able to get even close to its ceiling until they at least stabilize that. You have Justin Herbert. You don't need to be a top five rushing offense. they just average. They don't need to be, they just need to not be

historically bad. And I actually think, you know, we're not talking about the most expensive players in football. We're talking about running backs and centers

and they can do it. But loathe as I am to stress that a team with Justin Herbert has to be able to run the ball, they have to stop running the ball like this. Yeah, it can't be historically bad. That's all we ask.

That's the bar. Just not. historically bad. And I think like it's not even a resources allocation issue for me, our concern, because like you kill two birds with one stone there. Because you have to fix the pass protection also. So fix the offensive line. You fix the run game and the past protection at the same time. I really think that's the issue.

And it's really the issue on both sides of the ball. Fix the defensive line. Fix the offensive line. Be better in the trenches. And this team will be a lot better at football and a lot better at closing out games, which is still the problem. The problem isn't like this team is bad across the board. They're in games. They're competing with these teams. They just can't ever close these games out.

And it all comes back to that one issue. They can't win in the trenches. They can't stop the run and they can't run when they have to. If they were to, if I could pick three positions for them to upgrade, it would be young receiver. I do think center is a huge issue for them.

And then defensively, where an impact defensive player would help them the most. The trench play is such a problem. But I also think that, I mean, if they, the J.C. Jackson decision really set them back. Because if they could get a true impact corner in there, I think it would make a difference. But defensively, I mean, I'm on record with the issue is just the jerseys. but an impact defensive player, be it a lineman or be at a corner,

they just need someone who's not 32 years old. I mean, Khalil Mack having 15 sacks, this season is unbelievable, is amazing. But I don't think that if we're talking about the future planning,

we should be counting on that. Someone where your opponent has to game plan for that player. Because if he's not having that season next year, the list is really short. All right, anything else? My last thing was I had hired Dan Quinn,

get younger, receiver, fix the run game, draft an impact defensive player, and then petition for the good jerseys. Even like a middle lineback, just put it like a captain in the middle of that defense because that defense really hasn't had that. It's been Derwin James, but Derwin James has been on and off the field

and he's a safety, so it's kind of hard to play that role. But just having like, obviously, you're not going to go out and get Fred Warner or even Roquant Smith, although he was freely available last year. Like a player like that in the middle of the defense, I think would help a lot. Because linebacker,

as bad as defensive line and the secondary have been for them, linebacker may be the biggest weakness. It's amazing that Kenneth Murray still starts. It's got to be so tough seeing Kyle Van Nuoy, just like having a nice time on the Ravens. Daveon Clowny too, all these guys that like are just available. And like the charters, I feel like it hasn't been, I think they're just, they've gotten the wrong guys.

I think the ideas have been good. Like you said, the J.C. Jackson idea, I think was sound. They just got the wrong guy. And like going back to the Telesco thing just to kind of bring this full circle, when talent evaluation is your thing and you keep whiffing on these big moves,

like, you kind of, you got to move on at that point. All right. Wow. We fix the Chargers. Everything's great now. See at the Super Bowl in, in 2020, or whatever.

All right. Let's take a quick break. And then we will come back. And we're going to go through which teams can win the Super Bowl. Score early this NFL season with Fandul, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 money line bet wins. Week 15, we've got Ravens at Jaguars. Ravens minus 168. That's a little bit interesting. Broncos at Lions. Broncos plus 166, the way that defense is playing. A lot to think about there. And if you've been thinking about joining Fandul, there's no better time to get in. on the action. The app is so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet, from live same game parleyes to finding bets in the new Explorer tab, diving into the

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It's time to talk about the Super Bowl, the name of the game, the most important game of the year, the point of this whole exercise. And I think we like to use the framework from time to time throughout the season of which teams can actually win it. So we thought that we would go through most of the contenders. and especially following a week when several division leaders lost and some of the teams that are in good playoff position are going to be part of the playoffs looked pretty vulnerable.

Kind of reassess where we are. So let's start with the teams where I don't think that we have to have super long discussions. 49ers. I believe the San Francisco 49ers are capable of winning the Super Bowl. Do you agree? Yes. Yes.

All right. The Baltimore Ravens, also capable of winning the Super Bowl. I would argue that the Ravens, the story of the Raven season has been that earlier in the year when they were turning the ball over, just like an absurd amount,

they had some momentary struggles. Other than that, this team has been pretty close to a juggernaut. And Lamar is still, even though Doc Press, Scott is pretty close. Marr is still my MVP. So Ravens, check.

Yeah, I would say, like, they're the most balanced team outside of the 49ers, maybe. I think the 49ers are a no-brainer, but I think the Ravens, after the 49ers, it kind of becomes dicey with these conversations, but I think the Ravens have, we've seen how high their ceiling is on defense,

and we've seen how high their ceiling is on offense. They just have to find consistency, and I think, like, they're trending in the right direction, where I think you can say the same thing about the Eagles, for instance, like the Eagles haven't put together their best game yet. And it's different, though. It feels like the Eagles are kind of declining

and getting further away from being able to put their best foot forward while the Ravens are getting to that point where we're going to see their top games very soon. All right. What about the Cowboys? I want to get to the Eagles next, but just sticking in the NFC for one second. Dallas to me is a check.

Yeah, I'm put... Yeah, Dallas is a check. The only reason Dallas won't be a check for anybody is because they're the cowboys and everything that goes along with that and all their failures in the playoffs. But outside of that, like in a vacuum, on paper. Yeah, and Mike McCarthy, that's a good point. This team might be one of the, like, outside of the 49ers again, I feel like I put them in a

different category. I think they're clearly the best team in the NFL. This team has a lot of balance. It can win in many different ways. And you can't say that about a lot of teams this season. Can I plant my flag on something that I wrote on the website last week, but I just want to say out loud on a podcast in case it happens. Go for it.

Isn't it at least on some level possible that the Cowboys, if the Cowboys lose in disastrous fashion in the first round of the playoffs, and it is, here we go again with Cowboys with Mike McCarthy, just never gets it done. Jerry Jones really upset decides enough is enough. I can't live with this anymore. Doesn't Bill Belichick head coach of the Dallas Cowboys sort of enter the chat a little bit?

I think it does. I really think it does. And I don't think it's irrational to think Jerry would react like that. This is a man that has moved on from a coach coming off to back-to-back Super Bowls. So I think if they lose in the first round, I think it's a given that they're moving on from them. My only concern is like the head budding that would go on. And my other concern would be Belichick accepting the job. oh, come on.

You know, the cowboy is, what are his other, what are his other option? It's Jerry Jones, though. Yeah, but you know what? Everyone with that big of an ego, Jerry Jones included, thinks they can manage someone like Jerry Jones. And if you talk about a team, owner has all the money in the world,

don't have to worry about, you know, working out some perfectly orchestrated trade so that the chargers are paying 10% of Belichick's salary and the Patriots get a draft pick, but they're worth it. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It just gets messy. Good team can win a bunch of games. High profile. Exciting. On some level, it's just like patently bananas. But that's the thing that might happen. But anyway, I'm derailing this podcast. I just, I wanted to say that out loud because for as bananas as it is in some ways, I kind of think it could happen. So, you know, let the record show.

Okay. Let's talk about the Eagles because I think the Eagles are one of the interesting teams here. I would still say that from a 30,000 foot viewpoint, this is a team with Super Bowl aspirations. This is a team that obviously is different from last year's team, but is still mostly a year removed from being in the game is one of the best teams in the NFC. But obviously they've struggled lately, and they've especially struggled defensively.

So my question for you is, is this defense capable of winning a Super Bowl? My question for you first is, Why did we skip over the Chiefs? Because how I view the Chiefs is they're just... I would get to them next. Oh, I thought they were just one of those teams, like the 49ers, where it's just like, yeah, they have Patrick Mulham's and Andy Reed,

so it's a no-brainer and no need to have the discussion. But like, I think that's the difference for me. Like that's kind of discussion about the Chiefs. You want to have now? Oh, really? Okay, let's do that. Yeah, let's talk about the Chiefs and then let's talk about the... Yeah, let's have that now.

I'm like, I... not only do not think that it is obvious that they just like absolutely check. I don't think, I don't think they're going to win this. I just don't, I don't see it. I don't know if maybe this is just like recency bias, but I really do not think that this, that this team has it. I think that this receiver group is at least in terms of what Mahomes, has ever dealt with is like historically bad.

He is currently on throws to wide receivers. He is currently 22nd out of 29 quarterbacks who qualify to be ranked by QBR, which puts him just below Desmond Ritter, who's like never heard of a wide receiver. And he's also last in completion percentage over expectation on those throws. He's 27th out of 29 in yards per attempt on throws, on throws to wide receivers. He is completely fine, by the way, on throws to running backs and tight end. Mahomes is third in QBR on those throws. He is as good of a quarterback as he's ever been when he is not throwing to wide receivers.

When Patrick Mahomes this season throws the football to a wide receiver, he's like a bottom half quarterback. Now, that is not his fault. But I don't, I just, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, but I cannot sit here and be like, yeah, you can definitely win the Super Bowl playing like that. Okay, see, this is why I brought them up with the Eagles because I feel like all the arguments I'm going to make against the Eagles you can make against the Chiefs, which you just did.

Like, there are very legitimate reasons why this team should not be considered a legit Super Bowl contender. But then I just go back to they have Patrick Mahomes, and they have Andy Reed, and they have Steve Spagnolo, and I trust those guys, and then I look at the games that they've played. Like, I'm not concerned about, like, one-off regular season losses to teams they should be

meeting. Like the Green Bay Packers lost, like I don't care. They lost to the Colts last year and they won a Super Bowl easily. I'm more concerned about how they look against other contenders.

What have they done? It's not what they've done. It's what they haven't done. And they haven't been in pairs. What is this team's most impressive? They don't have the Jaguars maybe in week two, beating the dolphins in week, whatever that was,

week nine in England and like completely shutting down their offense. I guess it was Germany. I think playing the Eagles well and out playing them. really, in my opinion, out playing the Eagles was a good performance. Last week against the bills, like, you ran into Josh Allen. It happens.

I don't know. They do have issues, but at the end of the day, their issues are less of a concern for me than other potential issues for teams that we've kind of pushed into the, they can win the Super Bowl bucket. Like, the Ravens have their own issues. Everything you could say about the Chiefs, like applies to the Ravens. I'm not so sure that the passing game is going to be on point in the playoffs. It's going to work against good teams.

So I don't know. But the difference between them and the Eagles, on point is very far away from this conversation. The Ravens, the Ravens passing. I just know what Patrick Mullins can do. First of all, so, okay, two things. One, the Ravens have had similar issues, but they had them at the beginning of the season.

And over the last couple of months, they seem to have figured it out. I've got to have some degree of trust in that. than a chief's team that not only is having those issues right now, but is clearly, in Mahomes' case, feeling the stress of having those issues. I do think that's a factor. I don't think he thinks this team has it.

And I've got to imagine that, especially that being a first, really, is a different kind of mindset. Like, there was this, Tom Brady, not a person who had a habit of saying interesting things. One said something really interesting. I think it was when, it was maybe when he did, like,

when the NFL did the, maybe it was during the NFL like 100th season programming or something. I don't remember what the interview was. But he talked about winning the first three Super Bowls. And then the stretch when the Patriots, they got to the game twice, but they lost the Giants both. times.

And he talked about not, kind of not knowing early in his career how hard it was and getting and like having to sort of learn to not tighten up once they started to hit stretches where it was a little bit more on him and there were bigger challenges

associated with that. And I wonder if the Holmes is a little bit in that zone because I just think that it is meaningful to see him stressed out the way that he clearly was after that game. ended the way that it didn't. The other thing that you said

was that they still have Patrick Mahalms, which they absolutely do. But the thing that I think is a problem, is like a real problem here, is that for them to create explosives in the passing game, he essentially has to do insane Mahalms things all the time.

Now, I think he's more than, he's more than capable of doing that a lot. But he has to create, because no one on this offense is getting open downfield quickly. There's when they need to run a quick passing game, it is short, short, short, short, short. If he wants to throw a deep ball, he has to scramble, he has to buy extra time,

he has to do the Mahomes stuff in order to make that happen. I think he can do that, but I don't think, you know, you'd rather not have to all the time. But even if he does, he throws that pass and he is still hoping that someone manages to catch it during a season

where over 12% 12.5% of his deep passes are getting dropped. Which is, this was also in Bill Barnwell's piece for ESPN. It is like the worst in a decade.

So yes, you have Patrick Mahomes, but you're relying on him doing Mahomes things more than ever before. And then sometimes when he does it, it still doesn't matter because, like, one and a half times out of every 10 deep throws, something that should be catchable is just going to end up getting dropped. I just, if you take the names out of it, which obviously does not give a whole picture, I don't think,

I don't think we should be in the business of saying that a team, who's passing production to wide receivers is like in the bottom five of the league is going to win a Super Bowl. I just, especially when they are probably not going to be the one seed, especially when it's going to involve going on the road, winning three games just to get there. I just, I am one of the people who at the beginning of the season

put in all my previews, I am picking the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl as long as they have Patrick Mahomes. and that's probably just the way it's going to be forever. I really, I think it's time to rethink it. Let me just point out one thing. We all did that last year, too. And what we do at the ringer,

we do the preseason predictions, we do the mid-season update. In the preseason prediction, everyone picked the Chiefs. And the mid-season update, everyone's like, uh-oh, the Chiefs have too many problems. They're not playing well when no one's picking them. And then they won the Super Bowl anyway. Like, this is the same conversation we always used to have with the Patriots

when there were very real problems. I agree with you. The problems never really quite stretched this deep into the season. I think there are a lot of concerns. But for me, it's just like I'm admitting that this is irrational. But Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, that's enough. And the reason why I kind of brought them up within the discussion with the Eagles is because you can make all the same arguments that I'm making for them because they've had,

like we saw it last year. But the names that you're replacing Mahomes, Reed and Spagnolo with are Hertz, who's been shaky. Brian Johnson, who's, this is his first year doing this, and then Sean Desai, who's been maybe

the weak link of the coaching staff so far. The defense has certainly been the weak link. So you don't have those guys. So I leave the Eagles off this list and I put the Chiefs

on the list of teams that can win the Super Bowl. I don't think the Eagles can win the Super Bowl this year. This current version of them cannot win the Super Bowl. And I don't see

an obvious fix like right around the corner. I think there isn't an obvious fix for the Chiefs, like personnel problems, but there is an obvious fix. stop dropping the ball at a historical level. And maybe that's like you can't just say that,

but historically drops aren't like a sustainable thing. Just because the team drops a bunch of passes and the first half of the season doesn't mean that's going to be the case going forward. And beyond that, the Chiefs has still managed to have a winning record even with that historically inept wide receiver. I hear, yeah.

I mean, and I think, look, they have, I think the thing that worries me is that they've kind of, they've kind of found the quote unquote fixes. And whereas last season it was they found some solutions in the running game. And Isaiah Pacheco came on. And that ended up being productive and helping them sort of find how that offense could get humming. I think, I mean, I think it's good that they have kind of made Rishi Rice be at least, for all intents and purposes, wide receiver one. maybe he continues to develop and develop more chemistry with Mahomes and that gets a little bit better.

I just, in theory, the drops should be somewhat fluky. One, we are talking about some receivers who have a history of execution issues, I guess one could call it. And then the other thing is that I just, I think mentally it's becoming a problem. I have a hard time trusting that this is going to get better because I do think that those players, every time they line up in a high leverage situation, are now thinking about are we going to screw this up

and it's going to be the top story on Sports Center for the next week? And I don't think that that's a good position to be in. But let's talk about the Eagles because I think, look, I'm, I will put the chiefs on the list. I think they're,

I don't want, I will put the chiefs on the list, but they are not, It's irrational. I agree. But. Yeah. I can agree with that. Are the Eagles on your list?

The Eagles, I'm kind of not really either. I just, so here's the thing about the Eagles to me. If they could figure out, if they in the next month, figure out how to get a little bit more pressure, which in theory they should be able to do. They have been one of the worst, they've been 30th in pressure rate over the last six games. and this is a part of their defense where it's not that significantly changed from last year. I mean, they lost Javan Hargrave, but they drafted Jalen Carter. They drafted Nolan Smith.

Son Reddick is not having a season. He was last year, but it's still having good season. He has 11 sacks. If they could figure out how to turn, and maybe this is where the decide conversation comes in, if they could figure out how to turn that group into something, maybe not what they had last year, but something just a little bit more feisty,

I think it would go a long way for me because right now I don't think this defense, I don't think a team with this defense can win the Super Bowl. I think the coverage has taken a step back, but that is explained by personnel.

And I don't know how much there is left for them to do about that. I still think that this is a pretty balanced team. And that if they made some defensive improvements, which in theory, I can see them doing via getting more pressure, then maybe I can squint and start to make the case. Because I do think, I do still think, offensively, they present pretty unique challenges.

And on the right day, that's a tough out for anyone. But right now, if you are directly asking me the question, I do not think a team with this defense can win this. Yeah, and I think this is like an interesting conversation about how we kind of judge defense coordinators, because I think we have to like revise our takes on Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon was very criticized for how the defense played. And one of the criticism was that he didn't adjust well.

And I think Sean DeSai adjusts well in games. But the problem is like the foundation isn't as good as it was last year. And there's been kind of a shift in philosophy being like a, an attack defense to being more of a reactive defense which is like the Desai Fangio style. I think Desai has done a little bit more attacking style of defense this year, but

not as much as they were doing last year. I think that's one of the big problems. But I have concerns about the offense too. Like on their best day, it's very hard to defend. Maybe impossible to defend. But like we're not seeing those best days very often anymore. And like their plan B is not, I don't even know if they have one. It's like we have to run this style of offense no matter what. Even when they fall behind, like, they don't change their mode.

They just run the ball even more. They just like, let's just lean into the bit even more. So I think finding a plan B is something they failed to do this year with the new offensive coordinator. I think what they try to do is replicate last year's formula and expected everything that worked last year to continue to work and that didn't happen. And I mean, it's not a dumb strategy, but it just didn't work out. And I think we're at the point where we're at the point where We've seen them play against contenders for the last month. And though they won some of those games, it never felt like they were the best team on the field.

Like the Chiefs outplayed them. The Bills outplayed them. The Cowboys clearly outplayed them. They just happen to win some of those games. And I think, like, that's my concern is they're getting outplayed by these teams. And I don't see a solution to turning this around in the next month, except for just playing better and playing at a higher level like they did last year. I do think some of that is a little deceiving.

in the sense that the way that they steal, effectively steal extra possessions because of what they can do in short yardage, I think sometimes like it looks like they're getting outplayed and it's a little bit of a slight of hand just in terms of the specifics of this team. I in general agree with you, but I do give them offensively some credit where I have bought into. the idea that they just wear teams down. And sometimes it doesn't look perfect, but it is a really, really tough thing to beat. And I do think that they can find that. I just, there are,

there are certainly you would like to see them score more points look more dominant. But I think that this could be a Super Bowl winning offense. I'm more just like, I don't, as currently playing as currently constructed, I do not believe that this defense can win a Super Bowl. All right.

Yeah. Now that we've, now that we've poked all these. holes in the Chiefs and the Eagles cases. It's sort of funny to talk about other teams, but I want to because they think there are some other conversations, at least to hit on.

In no particular order. Can the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl? They got to make the playoffs first. But let's just say they do. Can the Buffalo bills win the Super Bowl? So they're in the group right below my teams that can win the Super Bowl. They're in the if you get them to the Super Bowl, they'd have a good chance

of winning the game, but there's no chance they're making the game based on how they're playing. And that's the Eagles, the Bills and the Dolphins for me. Like, everyone else is like, no shot. This is how I bucketed it. I had five buckets. The first bucket was if you let them skip to the Super Bowl and you give them a halftime lead, I still think they would blow it.

And that's like the Panthers, the Patriots, the cards, teams like that. The next bucket was if you got them to the Super Bowl and gave them a halftime lead, I think they would lay in the plane. But it would be kind of dicey and that's like the Browns, the Jaguars. The Patriots and the Cardinals for this exercise. I thought about the whole league. And then like the only team I couldn't place in a bucket was the Bengals. Because I feel like they were in this weird spot in between like if you gave them a

halftime lead at the Super Bowl, I think they would blow it. But also I think they might be able to land the plane just because they have so many good players. But that's how I bucket at the league. And like every other team outside of the top seven, which is Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Bill's Dolphins is in one of those buckets. But like the three that were hardest to place where the dolphins, bills and Eagles. But I ultimately placed the bills and dolphins in the bucket that can't. from the Super Bowl.

But you think, and that to you is more about them getting there. Yeah. But they could be, on any given Sunday, you can see it happening. I can't see it happening for, I can't see it happening three Sundays in a row with these teams. Maybe the Eagles, they're kind of. Where did the Jags slot in for you? The Jags are at the top of the, I think they would land the plane if we gave them a lead. But like, I just don't think they're going to get them.

get there. I can't even see them going on a run. There are just too many flaws, like with the play calling, with how Trevor is kind of on the same page with the receivers. The defense, I think, has had some really good highs, but it's still exploitable. We've seen that. We've seen good offensive coordinators kind of pick them apart. So, like, I still think they're a year away from even being in that conversation where if you put them on Super Bowl Sunday, they could win. I don't think they're even there yet. They would really need, I mean, Trevor would have to be healthy, obviously he's playing, but totally healthy.

Improvements in the running game. They would need someone like Tyson Campbell won in the lineup consistently and definitely to really step up because they have really struggled against the deep ball lately and I think they would get picked apart if they matched up with some of these better offenses

in the playoffs. What about the Lions? They have Jared golf. So they're in that same group with the Jaguars. They've looked so shaky over the last couple weeks. Even going back to that Packers game, like I kind of said with the Chiefs, where's the game where they got embarrassed and it didn't look like they were capable of competing with these contenders? The Lions have several of those games now.

And one of them was against the Packers who are not a contender. But like that Ravens game, after that game, I was done. It was a... What lead at halftime would the Joe Flacco Browns have to have in the Super Bowl for you to trust them to win it? they're on that list. They're on the list of teams that I think land the plane and give me a two possession lead over eight points.

With that defense? Total. I'm fine. I think Joe Flacco's hoisting another Lombardi, two rings. Can you imagine? It's the best outcome for content. What about the Packers? Kind of the similar conversation is the Jaguars for me.

I don't know how you feel, but I think instead of them being a year away, I think they're two years away. I think we're kind of seeing last year's version of the Jaguars where it starts out slowly and they kind of figure things out. I don't know.

Okay, last one. What half-time lead to the Matthew Stafford Rams need? See, this is one, it might be zero. It might just be a tied game because I thought about it until I thought about the defense,

but I thought about putting them close to the same category as the bills and dollars. offense. I don't think they're as good as those teams, but I think their offenses have ceilings equal to those teams. And I'm basing that solely off the last couple of games, and especially on Sunday, because that, I think Sunday was Sean McVeigh saying, hey, man, I'm still an elite offensive play caller, and we still have a lot of talent on this roster. Puka Nakua is, like, legitimately a top 20 receiver. I think you can make the argument that he's already close to being

a top 10 receiver at this point. Cooper Cup is obviously Cooper Cup. And then Matthew Stafford is just playing at a level that I didn't even expect, and I had them ranked in the top 10 before the season. So offensively, Super Bowl caliber. Defensively, still a couple of moves away. I said the Browns and Joe Flacco hoisting a Lombardi trophy was the best outcome for content. The Rams are not going to win the Super Bowl,

but if this Rams team did win the Super Bowl, it would be the greatest game of all time, because they would have to win it in a shootout. The defense has had some bright spots and they've definitely developed guys and that's all fun in games. They are not, they're not old enough. They do not know what they're doing.

But there's just like a world in which they could go, they could go score for score with somebody. All right, we're probably getting a little silly here. Anything else? Anyone I missed? No. Like that's the other teams like on my list of teams that would win the Super Bowl with the lead are like the Broncos, the Texans, the Seahawks. But like I don't think those teams are threats in the playoffs.

I don't think either any of those teams is going to win a game in the playoffs. All right. Well, that's our show. This has been dual threat. Thanks for listening. Stephen and I will be back on Sunday breaking down week 15. In the meantime, Ben and Sheel will have you covered on extra point taken. Thank you to Stefan.

Anderson for producing this episode. Thank you to Kara Givens and Eduardo Ocampo for their work on socials and video. Thank you to Arjuna Ramgapal and Conard Evans for their conditional production superintend. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.org slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533442 in Arizona, 1-88-78-9-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Call 1-800-9 with it in Indiana, 1-800-2-2-470-7-0 or visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-7-70 stop in Louisiana. Visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia or call 1-800-5-2-2-4-7-0.com.

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