The Ringer NFL Show - Identifying AFC Contenders: With the Chiefs Down, Who’s Positioned to Pounce?

Episode Date: December 9, 2025

Sheil is joined by Mike Sando from The Athletic to talk about which teams in the AFC have the best chance of contending for a Super Bowl within an increasingly wide-open 2025 playoff race. (00:00) Identifying AFC Contenders(1:26) New England Patriots(8:32) Buffalo Bills(15:29) Houston Texans(17:11) Denver Broncos(23:09) Jacksonville Jaguars Shopping. Streaming. Celebrating. It’s on Prime. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit ⁠www.rg-help.com⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Mike SandoProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shield Capadia. Today we are trying to identify who is going to take over for the chiefs in the AFC. The chiefs have been the AFC's Super Bowl representative in five of the last six seasons. And while something wild still could happen, it looks like they're not going to make the playoffs. So which team is best positioned to pounce on this opportunity?

I mean, this postseason where we potentially have AFC playoffs. Without Mahomes, without Joe Burrow, without Lamar Jackson, which team can step in there and get to the Super Bowl and give themselves a chance at a Lombardi. To talk about that, we've got my friend from the athletic, Mike Sando. We each chose a favorite, a runner-up, and a sleeper. Let's take a break and come back and talk to Mike Sando. This episode of The Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having state farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a C captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense?

You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help, you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, welcome back to the Ringer NFL show. The great Mike Sandow is here. We are looking for the Chiefs Replacement.

So, Mike, let's start with the favorite. Just if you had to make one pick right now, chiefs aren't going to the Super Bowl in the AFC. Who is the team you would pick right now? It might be New England. Does that surprise you? A little bit. Yes, make the case.

My case for New England is I think we looked at a lot of these teams and we can kind of see a flaw or maybe their team is kind of peaked, right? And they're not quite what they should be. Whereas I feel like New England is still becoming what it's going to be. and his already has the best record. I know the schedule is part of that. I get it, but they've won different ways. I think their quarterback looks really good.

I think the head coach is super solid. The offensive coordinator is in the perfect role for him. You know, they're pretty good defense, at least against the run. Do I think they're great when you dissect them on paper? No, but I kind of feel like they could be better in a month than they are now, and they already have the best record. So that's a little bit of my case for them. it's sort of by default.

I think I'd let you pick anyone and I'd take the field and you'd do the same, I'm sure. But, you know, that might be a team to sort of watch for me. Yeah, I had them as my runner-up. So it wasn't, you know, it wasn't like, oh, my gosh, I can't believe you're picking the Patriots. So they're my runner-up. Yeah, they're 11 and 2. It's interesting, some of the, you know, statistics or whatever that take into account

the schedule. Like, I like to look at this site, unpredictable that does like the betting markets and it does like, you know, strength the schedule. and they do the power ranking. So it just tells you, like, who would be favored on a neutral field right now? And they're 12th in that way. I was like, man, 12th.

That's like, there's definitely not 11 teams I like better than the Patriots. So I look at those things, but I'm with you. I kind of believe in them. You know, I look at them. I feel like they've passed every test. They've beaten the bills. They've beaten the box. They haven't tripped up on these bad teams,

which I feel like you have to get credit for, you know? It's like the Rams losing that game to the Panthers a couple weeks ago. those types of games happen throughout the course of an NFL season. And I feel like they keep passing those tests. So I like the quarterback. I like the coaching. I feel like, yeah, they are definitely one or two for me. I've got them too, but I hear what you're saying there.

And they throttle the Giants. You know, the Denver, it's every eight weeks different, but Denver scoring like 100 points in the fourth quarter to barely beat the Giants, you know. And I just, yeah, I like them. I can make a case for someone else, but I kind of lean that way. I'm anxious to see what they're going to be. The defense does make me a little nervous. But you know what I was looking at, Mike?

Like I was going on, the defense is vulnerable. And then I was going, well, who are the great offenses that you have to face in the AFC playoffs? I don't know. You know, it's like, all right, the bills, yes. Other than that, it's such a weird year, which is why we're doing the exercise. There's no Mahomes. Right now, there's no Lamar.

There's no borough. You might be able to get by without having a great defense. I think right now they are eighth in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, eighth in each. So it's not like they have a, I know schedule is part of it, but it's not like they have a bottom five defense and they're just holding on. That's fine. Yeah. It's like, it's a great offense, mediocre defense oftentimes can get you to the Super Bowl. So that might be their formula.

How high are you? What's like you talk to people every week around the NFL, right? The great column for the athletic. what's sort of the buzz around Drake May? Because last week I presented the question, Ben Solac was on, and I said, how many quarterbacks would the Patriots just trade up?

Like, it trades straight up for Drake May right now. And we're like, I think Mahomes, I think Josh Allen. And even those, it's not like 100%, but what's the stuff you hear on Drake May right now? Well, a lot of people have changed their tune and think that he has shown some things in the NFL that they weren't sure he was showing in college.

So I think he's earned a lot of fans. A lot of people liked him, but I didn't think anybody super loved him. And there were some people who just weren't sure, you know, good people that I talked to a lot. So I think he's won, you know, really in probably the middle of this season on, he's kind of become the upper tier guys. So I think he's going to make a huge jump in the quarterback tiers. I don't know if he's going to get any tier one votes, but he might. I mean, I think there's been some people that really bet on him. So I think he's won people over and really proven it this year.

You had a thing in your column today about comparing this Patriots team to the 2001 team, which I thought was interesting. What sort of the comp there, the case there? Well, I mean, Mike Vrabel was a rookie 12-game starter on that team. Josh McDaniels was a young defensive assistant on his way. He was really, I think, came at, was the coordinator, maybe after Charlie Weiss, but he was in an early coach on that team. So they know the DNA. And then I think, you know, Vrabel's a little bit of a maybe a modern version of Belichick, who's, you know, a ball coach through and through, you know, knows the game, fundamentals. He's into the situational aspects of the game. But he also relates to players and has a personality, which is a real advantage. I think especially now, I think it's less of a, yes, sir, you know, how high do I jump league? And I think, the personality that some of these guys show is important. And I think he's got it.

And he's just got, he has the it factor, right? If there's an it factor for coaches or quarterbacks, this guy totally has it. So I think then you throw in the young quarterback who, you know, obviously Brady was behind Drew Bledsoe, so he didn't start right away. But Drake May right now is, I wrote this, is probably more impressive than Brady was through before you got to the playoffs in the Super Bowl that year, right? If we just put the blinders on and didn't know what happened to Tom Brady. I mean, this May looks pretty darn good.

So it's New England. So those are just a few of the things that I thought, you know, made me think of that. It feels like something special has kind of happened in there. Yeah, that's not recency bias. I mean, May could win the MVP this year. I think it would be my pick right now if I had to pick one. So, I mean, all these teams, it's so interesting because it's like, all right, If you're a Patriots fan, you're going, we got Drake May, we got Vrable, you know, hopefully, let's see if we can win it this year.

But if we don't, you know, we're going to have other opportunities. But we know, like, yeah, you can feel good about that. But it doesn't always work out that way. You know, you got to have certain luck in different aspects. And so that's why the AFC being wide open is so interesting this year, which brings me to my pick, Mike, for my favorite. And I'm just to ignore me, you know. I'm just going to go with the bills. I'm just going to say they've got the best player.

they've got the best quarterback in Josh Allen. They're not the most complete team. It's interesting. This isn't like the best version of the bills we've seen by any stretch, but this still might be their best opportunity, even if they're not the one seat or even if they don't win their division, just because of the path they might have to go through to get there. Yeah, they're my next team.

They would be my second team on this list. And for those reasons you talked about, I think on any given day, you know, Josh Allen is, you know, can go win the game. As I wrote though today, they're so reliant on him that they no longer have really the defense that can just go win a game for him. And we see that in their record the last two years when the offense was below average by EPA is one in seven, including O and four this year. Big change from basically being 500 right around there before that. They're also not winning on the road. Their 500 team on the road used to be, I think, 23 and 9 over a four-year stretch on the road.

So they definitely aren't the same, and you acknowledge that. And so that is what just held me back from putting them. I feel like they're holding on and maybe not getting better. And they've already lost to New England and may lose to them again. They play this week. So, you know, maybe that game changes my mind if Buffalo comes out and really handles them. But I kind of think New England might win that coming off the buy. I love the point there, backed up by your numbers, because that's what it feels like.

It feels like they have basically one way to win. It's, you know, now they can win with the run game for sure, but against good teams, you know, if you're just talking about, hey, they've got a win for a month here. It is going to have to be Josh Allen being Superman. I mean, you know, maybe you get the defense creating some turnovers, one game. But the other thing, Mike, about their defense is like in the past, they've had good defenses in the regular season, and then they get lit up, you know, a lot of these games in the playoffs where they lose a lot, a few of them, most of them have been Josh Allen,

plays well, the offense plays well, and the defense can't give them anything, can't get a stop. It's, you know, like a whatever, a 10th percentile gamer. So that doesn't make you feel great that this year they're not even good in the regular season. I don't, how would they turn it on that defense in the playoffs? If I had more time last night, I was going to look up, when's the last time a quarterback had Joe Burroughs overall numbers were amazing with those disaster plays. Like you put in the disaster plays, those had to be like huge swing plays that would normally wreck your stat line if you're a quarterback.

And like, his stats were still good. And so I'm with you. That's just what worries me about. Am I, you know, any one week, but over a course of weeks, I think it would be harder. It's how they're bad also, you know, their 28th and explosive play rate allowed. Their 27th in success rate against the run, like that type of profile makes me very nervous. And I know they've had some injuries, but it's not like, oh, they're going to get X, Y, and Z back and their defense is going to be playing well. I mean, their defense has been playing like this for most of the season.

But even with that, I am very excited. I was thinking about this as I prepped for this exercise. I'm like, one of the most exciting ways that this season could play out is that Josh Allen over the next eight weeks just reaches this level where we're like, man, we've seen it before. But he's the best player in the NFL. He's the best quarterback in the NFL. He's putting the cape on.

He's putting the whole team on his back. And he stands there and hoist the Lombardi Trophy where we're all going, man, that wasn't even his best team. He's had better teams, because he's going to be asked to elevate to that level. And we all know, it's possible that he does it. So that's like one of the fun ways this season could play out. It'd be so funny, too, because I think through his actions, Sean McDermott has tried to have a different type of a team.

He's tried to be running the ball more. He doesn't want to live and die, slinging it around, but that might be his only way to do it, partly because his defense, you know, which he is leading. is not what it was. So that would be amazing if he were to do that. And Josh Allen could. He's probably the one guy in the AFC.

Who can do that right now? I wonder if, you know, does he look at it and go, man, I've had so many chances and I might not have to play Mahomes or Lamar or Burrell. Like, I mean, it already feels like every postseason. They're one of those teams like the Ravens where they've just got that pressure on them where it's like, is this finally going to be the year? or are we going to go into the long off season and then have to try, climb that mountain again

where he's got to be looking at that going, man, you know, I know these are good teams and I know we don't have a great team, but like we really have a chance here to win this thing. So yeah, the bills, the pressure. I can't even imagine the bills fans if, you know, if they bow out this year against one of these other teams, that is going to be hard to swallow. I think the pressure goes up if they finish really strong.

Like if they were to run the table and be 13 and four. them. Yeah. Like they're nine and four now, so their season's been couched a little bit by some of the losses. Or, you know, so if they were to finish like, you know, 11 and 5 and then win and when playoff game and lose that, it almost feels like, yeah, that's kind of what they were. But if they raised the bar by a strong finish and then have the letdown, I think it hurts more. Oh, no. Bill's fans.

We'll put in the notes. Fast forward through that part. You don't, you know. Yeah. Yeah. You know, I picture that. Skip. Skip.

Yeah. Skip. Yeah, 15 seconds forward there on Sandel's Te-on Sandel what he is envisioning as your nightmare potentially for the Buffalo Bills. All right, let's take a break. I want to come back and talk about the sleepers because, I mean, there are a lot of other teams in the mix here, which of them might have the best chance. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery.

You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas, and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there. I just have to click, click. They know I'm not paying for shipping. I'm going to that Prime link. Can order it. It shows up at the door. It's in a box so it doesn't give anything away. I sneak it upstairs.

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So just odds-wise, Mike, we picked, you know, the two teams that are up there. Bills are plus 370 to get to the Super Bowl. The Patriots are plus 390. I don't know if you've looked at these odds or not, but there is another team that has the exact same odds as the New England Patriots in the AFC. Well, it might be Denver, but I'm picking Houston. Okay. Okay.

It is Denver, but make the case for Houston. Yeah, so to me, Houston's defense is the best in the league. And certainly the best without having to do a bunch of risky things, you know, imperiling your back end of your defense by blitzing all the time. They're historically, I think, of the last 160 defenses, going back whatever that would be five years. They're in the top five for third down defense without when they don't pressure, when they don't bring five or more rushers.

You can just see what they're doing there. Now, I don't have as much optimism on the offensive side. I think we see flashes. It is the first year of the coordinator. I do think their offensive lines are a little bit better than it's been, but that's why they're not a higher pick for me. I think if I could trust their offense a little bit more, they may be my pick.

But they still have to get through Jacksonville, and I think that's a team that we're probably overlooking a little bit. But the reason I have them over Denver is I just feel like Denver, I just feel like Denver's, number one, Denver's Devens, I don't think is quite as good. And then I probably shouldn't hold it against them that they've, I think they won 12, or they trailed in their first 12 games and won 10 of them. I just feel like it's been not smoking mirrors, but just a little tenuous to me. So maybe I'm pushing back too hard on that.

But I feel like they're the type of team that's going to have this great record and then maybe lose their first game. Yeah, I've been wrong about a lot this year. And I certainly, you know, I was like everyone settled down about this Broncos team before this season, during this season. I was like, they're not going to dethrone the chiefs. The offense is going to look the same as it did last year. And here they are 11 and 2.

To your point, the stuff, you know, you and I might like to look at, suggest that they don't necessarily fit the profile of a Super Bowl team. I mean, they have a plus 73 point differential and are 11 and 2. The Chiefs have a plus 63 point differential and are 6 and 7. The Broncos are 8 and 2 in one score games. They have the most one score wins of any team in the NFL. And we don't need to, you know, even if you don't count last week, that sort of fluky one against the Raiders,

which wasn't necessarily a one score win. So you look at all those things, but they have one 10 in a row. they've beaten the Eagles, they've beaten the Cowboys, they've beaten the Texans, they've beaten the Chiefs. And what I like here, Mike, is that I feel like we'll find out in the next month how real this is because they've got the third hardest remaining schedule here with the Packers, the Jaguars, at the Chiefs, and the Chargers. So I was thinking this.

What do you think of this comp? And I brought this up before. Is there something to, they are some version of last year's Eagles? And I know it's not perfect, but let's say very, very, good defense. I think even if you don't love them, I think you would say top five defense. Oh, yeah. The offense is maybe hit or miss, but the quarterback's not going to make mistakes. He's not going to turn the football over, put you in negative situations. I think most weeks, they're going to have an edge up front on both sides of the ball. So they don't have Sequin

Barclay. They don't have the other talent that that Eagles team had on offense. But I'm looking at it going in a weird year. I'm not going to push back too hard on some of these things because I'm nervous. I'm a little gun shy here. I like that. I like that comp. It's a good comp. It's better than, you know, I don't think anyone else fits that comp as well as, as them. And, you know, Bo Nix is less established. I think Jalen Hertz has had some bigger moments, obviously, on bigger stages. And so you probably, you know, feel, felt a little better last year about what Philly is. They're just more established, right? And they're a higher profile team. We've seen them more. So I could, I think I am underrating Denver some. I think I am. I think I can admit that, but I am. I'm doing it. So, you know, I'm going to have to live and die with that.

And maybe they, you know, their strength of victory and some of these other things isn't as good. Houston's, you know, won more of the better, beaten better teams, I guess, if you go by record. I think they have more quality wins, is what I call it, a win against a team that currently has a winning record. Those are harder wins to have because when you beat a team, their record gets worse. So I give Houston's up there. Jacksonville's up there in that too. Closing on Denver, I think the one seed might be more important to them than any other team. You know, I think if they can get the buy and you got to win two games at home,

then I can envision that more than, hey, they got to win three games, and this passing game's going to be in situations where they have to come through. Are they going to come through? Maybe they will. You know, we see weird things happen in the playoffs. The team you are in January, it's going to be a small sample. Sometimes you are able to look different than you are in the regular season. but I also picked the Texans as my sleeper.

And I'm just, it really is all about the defense. You know, they just have this list of quarterbacks that they've picked off over the years with Damiko Ryans and with this defensive personnel where I just find them so trustworthy. I was looking at this. I don't know if you ever do this where I try to say how many just below average games has a unit had. And I looked at that for the Texans. They've had one all season by EPA per drive where they didn't at least reach, you know, the 50th percentile. in defense in terms of EPA per drive.

And that was week two against the bucks. And they've played some good offenses and some good quarterback. So it's not like their, I think they've had the second hardest schedule in the NFL. So I look at that and I go, man, I do that. That really can get them far in January. And then what do we need from this offense? Like if I said, hey, what's a realistic thing where this offense plays at this level and it actually is good enough to get to the Super Bowl?

Is it just kind of like C.J. Stroud makes enough plays on third down? because I think overall, we know it's not a great offense. We know it's probably not going to be a great offense, but I'm trying to figure out what they actually need from that offense with how good this defense is playing. I know, and what is their identity on the offense? I think you start with they need to not be blowing the games. I mean, when you look at their four losses,

the offense was completely atrocious, you know, they have five losses, but they're four losing to the Rams, Jaguars, Denver, and Seattle, those are really good defenses. But I think it's maybe being able to tread water against a really good defense, not win the game, but not have the disaster games, right? Because if you're looking at their offensive EPA,

it's minus 24 against Seattle. Okay, you're not winning that game. It's minus 15 against Denver. You're not going to win that game. You know, it's minus 15, you know, against Jacksonville, minus almost 11 against the Rams. Those are never win games, just about, you know, you're going to hardly ever win him. So I guess that would be it is really not lose it.

Yeah. In a way, it feels like, hey, you know, D'Amika Ryan doesn't seem like he minds playing that way. Hey, keep us in the game. We might need some third down magic from Stroud, which he had against the Chiefs. I mean, a few of those plays were incredible that he made with Chris Jones chasing him down, hunt some explosives with Nico Collins. We don't need to be a great down-to-down type team, but we're going to need a couple explosive plays in the passing game. And then can that be enough for us to win a game? Can that be enough for us to steal a game in the fourth quarter?

So yeah, I've definitely got my eyes on that Texans team. I don't know that they have enough offensively, but they might. And then the last team, you know, Mike, I think, unless you have someone else, you mentioned the Jaguars, they are plus 710, so not far behind the Texans. in terms of the odds here. They're nine and four. They're currently the three seed. This is another team. We're all season.

I've been going, no, this team does too many dumb things. I don't trust them. I don't trust this offense. Should we have them more in the mix with teams like the Texans? Yeah, I think we have them appropriately in the mix that we're talking about them. You know,

I think it would be inappropriate to not talk about them. But I think it's totally fine to pick the other teams that we pick. Yeah. Now, their defenses seem super turnover reliant, you know, bears are like that too. And so that can come and go. I do think Trevor Lawrence had a really good game last year, but last week or yesterday,

but, you know, do I think that Trevor Lawrence has turned a corner and it's now something that he has not been? I'm not willing to say that at all. I think that they, that he's still going to be an inconsistent or accuracy player. You know, there's a lot of people getting excited. You know, Jag fans, I've seen some of this,

but I think one of the things I tweeted today was like, somebody said something like, they have three winning records in the last four years with Trevor Lawrence. And I'm like, well, yeah, they're really good on defense those years. You know, they're 23rd on offense two of those three years. Maybe, you know, so they've had one top 10 offense. And I just don't, this isn't one now, they're 23rd. So I don't see the consistency on offense, which is the same thing with Houston. I'd probably rather have the Jaguars offense than Houston almost, would you? Yeah, but I would definitely rather have the, I think there's a bigger gap between the Texans defense and the Jaguar's defense. Yeah, and so that's why I lean with Houston, I think it's totally reasonable to do so. Yeah. Actually, yeah, I'm thinking about that. Yeah, I don't, the gap between Houston's offense and Jaguar's offense, I would have to think about that whether I would definitely want Jackson. I think I would want Jacksonville's over them. I think they're capable of more. But yeah, it's not that wide. I don't think.

But like for the next three years, I'd probably go with Houston. I agree with that. Would you agree with that? I better have Stroud probably. Yeah. So you're right. Trevor Lawrence, he's one of those guys. And I've talked about it before.

You tune in on the right in the right quarter, on the right possession, on the right night. And you go, man, I see it. This guy's got it. And then you tune in on the wrong quarter, the wrong position. And you go, why would anyone want to give this guy franchise quarterback money? So you have to take it on the hole. You really have to almost zoom out and say, I'm not going to be that influenced by the last week. I do think he's playing better football right now, but on the season, you know, to your point,

25th in EPA per play, 17th in success rate, he's up there and turnover worthy play percentage. He's down there on adjusted completion percentage. So there's a lot, there's been a lot this season. He is a roller coaster ride and the idea of the Jaguars putting together three straight games in the AFC playoffs where they just play mistake-free football. I personally cannot get there with that. Maybe it'll be a weird season, but that's why I have them a little bit. lower than these other teams.

And I know we don't, you know, we're not, we're talking to EPA and all this stuff, but it's hard to have an 83.3.3 pass rating in the NFL now and be a $250 million quarterback. Isn't that hard? Yeah. That's Trevor Lawrence. I mean, he's with Gino Smith. Yeah.

So it's a, I just like, like that's just an old school way of looking at it. I'm like, he has an 83 pass. It doesn't usually happen in the NFL, you know, so. Right. Yeah. No, I mean, listen, the numbers back it up. you could put together a highlight reel where it looks great, and maybe he will go on a heater.

Again, weird things happen this time of year, but I think you and I are on the same page, not predicting it. All right, those are the teams. I don't think we missed anyone. Mike, right? We didn't miss anyone obvious. We got to the obvious teams.

I think we got to the obvious teams, yep. Okay, there you go. He is Mike Sandell. You can check out all of his work in the athletic. Listen, we had a lot to get to. So I said going in, we're not doing a hurry up today. If you want my thoughts on Eagles Chargers, You can head over to the Ringers Philly special for a breakdown.

We'll break down that game over there. But thanks again to Mike Sando. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing Kira Givens on social and additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ram Gopal. I'm Sheila Kapadia. We'll talk to you tomorrow on the Ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming.

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