The Ringer NFL Show - Is Brady or Arians to Blame for Tampa Bay’s Struggles? Plus, Bad Coaches, Kyler’s Step Back, and COVID-19’s Effect on Betting

Episode Date: December 2, 2020

We discuss the effect of sudden COVID-related schedule changes on betting lines, the 49ers' new home in Arizona, and Matt Patricia’s alleged new burner Twitter account (4:40)). Later, we get into which coaches deserve the most blame for their team’s performance, break down the Bucs' struggles, and weigh our level of concern about Kyler Murray’s recent play (17:10). Hosts: Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of The Ringer NFL show, we get into how these COVID-related schedule changes affect betting lines, the coaches that deserve the most blame this season, and the Bucks potential in the NFC. Stick around. Welcome to The Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon. And joining me as he does every Wednesday is Warren Sharp. Hey, Warren. Happy belated Thanksgiving, Chris. Didn't get to talk to you last week, but we're kicking it today, and I'm really looking forward to the show. I am too. We have got a game that is actually going on today on a Wednesday as we were recording this on a Wednesday. And it leads us to this topic that is incredibly strange. We have this whole COVID-19 situation hovering over the entire NFL and changing a lot of things, including the fact that we are having a Wednesday football game. We had probably the biggest moment of affecting this season, this past. past Sunday where the Broncos are forced to play at quarterback, a practice squad wide receiver and Kendall Hinton. And then what followed was Broncos coming out and saying they felt like this was punishment of sorts by the NFL that typically in another situation you might have thought that the league

would have mercy on them and reschedule the game, postpone the game, whatever it may be. But instead, they just said basically tough luck, play whoever you. you can at quarterback, and it ended with a guy playing quarterback going one for nine, completing one pass the entire game, having two picks. Did you feel like what the NFL did to the Broncos this past Sunday, which was probably the biggest moment in this very odd season regarding the pandemic? Did you feel like that was punishment? Don't know that I think it was punishment, but what I'm noticing is that we are seeing

teams that are doing a good job of controlling the out. break and minimizing the impact of an outbreak are being impacted more negatively than the teams that sort of allow it to run a little bit more rampant. And then the tests keep lingering as you approach the game. Then there's more likely chance that the NFL is going to be like, okay, well, this is too unsafe. So let's push it, push your game out. Let's delay this game a little bit. And so I don't know that I say that they're punishing them. Clearly the NFL wants to get all these games in. And clearly the NFL does not want to have to move to week 18 if they don't have to because then that affects a lot of other things down the road. And so, you know, theoretically what

that would give, Chris, if we're going to, you know, I haven't looked at all the permutations. But if you add a week 18 to the season, now every single team that wasn't going to get a buy, we have seven teams in the in each conference are making the place and only one gets a buy now all the other six get a buy because that most of them aren't going to have to play that week 18 game and so like now you're talking about well it's not necessarily as important to get the number one overall seed if they add a week 18 so there's a lot of other things that think about but the short answer to me is no it does not feel like they're they were punishing them but in general teams that control the outbreak the best are not going to have certain players.

Whereas if they let things run rampant, there might be a greater chance that they would get some guys back. So you have the schedule being changed around. And one of the things with the schedule being changed around is the San Francisco 49ers cannot play home games. So now they have decided they're going to move their games to Arizona. 49ers look very good. That's a very good win on Sunday. against the Rams. Now that we know they are playing

their home games in Arizona, does it change their forecast at all in your mind? Now, we know they're playing in empty stadiums anyway. So I think on the surface, people would say, ah, that doesn't matter. Does it matter line-wise? Does it matter forecast-wise to you? It does feel like the home field advantage

will be affected slightly by these road games. They play weeks 13 and weeks 14, back-to-back week. So this week against the bills and next week against Washington, both of those games are now going to be in Arizona. They also have Week 17, which was supposed to be a home game. That's going to be in Arizona. And they play Arizona in Arizona, Week 16. That was supposed to be a road game.

Now it's going to be a de facto home game for them since that's their home stadium. So the reality is, like, yes, from a betting perspective, because there's still a little bit of home field advantage being factored into the point spread. It is going to make a slight difference. It also makes a difference that these guys have to uproot everything. And we'll see. I think it's only going to be a factor for this particular week 13 game because once they get settled in Arizona, they're going to get back on track from a habit perspective and a practice perspective and all of those things. And it's going to be smoother sailing. And you're looking at four of your remaining five games are going to be in the exact same stadium.

So ultimately it may become a slight benefit. And Kyle Shanahan was talking about that he's always liked this field. He thinks it's a fast field and he always has liked it. And they get back some of their speed guys. You know, they had Rahim Mostert back and Debo Samuel back and now they're getting Brandon Ayuk back. And these are three of their faster guys that they're now going to have on offense. So that's a positive for them as well.

The other thing that I wanted to mention while we're still on the COVID topic is it's very fascinating if you are tracking line movement and betting on these games like I do. One of my many monitors here is always trained on the odd screen. So I'm always seeing there's an individual line that comes up for every single game. It produces its own line on the lines feed. and when they cancel a game, then a new one pops up. It's got its own set of rotation numbers, rotation numbers, just the number you would give at the window.

You want to bet on this game. I want to bet on the New England Patriots this week. It's game 473. So you have to tell the guy at the counter what the rotation number is to place your bet. And so each one has its own unique rotation number each week. At any rate, let me take a quick time out, Warren. Where does that feed come from that you have?

I don't want to get into the names of the places because they're not sponsoring us, and so I'm not going to give them free promotion. I understand. Okay, so, but you could subscribe? Do you subscribe? Yes. Okay, so you subscribe to a service that then feeds the lines onto a monitor in your house. Correct.

And you can get, you can get like up at my website, Trap Football Analysis. I have a page that has free lines and free odds. And these odds are the same as like some that you'll see. here, but I have the ability to toggle through tens and tens and tens of sports books. And I have the ability with the touch of one button to look at first half, first quarter, team totals, like, just toggle through all the different lines. And I see when a line has changed. And I see when a new game has been added. And so I move that to a separate screen with all of my games. And at any rate, what I'm getting at is that you can go through and see how the line is changed every time they

posted a game differently. So, for example, when they took down the San Francisco game, because initially it was posted last week before it was announced that they wouldn't be able to play in San Francisco. When they said, you guys are not able to play in San Francisco, they took that one down, posted that number again being played in Arizona with a new set of rotation numbers and a new line. Now, that line was very close to what it was before. but a difference one a difference to discuss which is how you can kind of discuss quote and quote fairness is this Baltimore Pittsburgh game because that game was taken off the board multiple times remember it was to be played on Thursday then they took it down then it was to be

played on was it Sunday then it was to be played on Monday then it was to be played on Wednesday so I think it was at least four different times they took that game down and reposted it and you could see the line change each time that they would change the date and try to get a better handle on who's actually going to play and who's not. So the point is, if you want to judge whether or not something is quote unquote fair, study what the odds are from the betting market before an announcement and then after announcement. If the game is being delayed or moved and you can get a sense as to what the odds makers think. If I would have bet the bills a week ago before they took that down,

would they still honor that? Even though the game is not. So that's that's, that's, the thing. When they change venue or they change the game day, that is when typically the bet, the prior bet is going to be void at most sportsbook. Venue or date change. I got you. If they change the time of the game, yes, you'll still have it. So that's where this Denver game that you were discussing really screwed a lot of the betters. It benefited some who took the Saints, obviously, but that game, you know, most of these COVID situations, they shift a game, a different day or something like that. And so now all the bets that you placed before are null and void, and you get the new information. Here, no quarterbacks, but the day of the game is still the

same. And so all those bets are action, which means that if you placed a bet at a great number on the Saints, you laid a very small number, and now it's minus 14. You still get that very small number. I got you. Regarding that 49ers bills, just for the point of clarity, how much did that line change when that game moved to Arizona? So that line didn't really change at all in the move to Arizona. But what it did was you had to place the bet again because the venue changed. And so they posted it up with a totally new set of rotation numbers. But it didn't affect anything. It did not affect anything. It's like a technicality from the betting side of things. But it didn't. not affect anything from the human side of things. Obviously, that game was always to be played on Monday night at 815, but because they changed the venue, they had to repost the game. Total the same, too? Total is exactly the same. Now, we are seeing a little bit of money come in on

San Francisco. So the line is starting to tick closer to two and a half right now. It's a juiced two and a half. It was three for the Buffalo Bills. They were laying three. Now it's down to a juice two and a half total was 48 and still is 48. Okay. Let's move on to we have had a coach get fired since we last spoke, Warren, and that was Matt Patricia with the Detroit Lions. In your mind's eye, what went wrong with the Matt Patricia era? And beyond that, people, when he gets fired, people are clearly revisiting Jim Caldwell and the

fact that he is the only guy in forever that has had a winning record. there and they moved on from Kim. So if you can, kind of explain to me what you think went wrong with Matt Patricia. And also, is it worth revisiting what happened with Jim Caldwell because of the epic failure of the Matt Patricia era? You know, I think that they were looking for the team to take that very next step. They thought they were on the precipice. They thought they had done enough from a team building perspective that they could move

and they weren't getting over that hump, so to speak, that they wanted to go to, oh, my God, we got a chance to get a Belichick disciple. This guy's got Super Bowl experience, and maybe he's the thing that can take us to the promised land. And obviously, that was a total mistake. And so in hindsight, you could say, well, maybe eventually Jim Caldwell would have gotten us there. And maybe it's more so that, you know, we were consistently producing a winning record. and maybe we would have been able to just luck into the next step. But the way that I look at the Matt Patricia era is obviously a colossal failure. I mean, he was a, he was a, what is it?

Lernotical engineer. Well, a loser, too. But I didn't know what word you were searching for. He was a rocket scientist. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, right. The number two pencil and the whole thing. Number two pencil. And so, like, he's well aware that this is a,

a results-based business, your rocket crashes and burns and kills everybody inside. You have failed. And you don't need to explain all the what's and whys and how you got, like, the bottom line is you fucked up. And I think for him, that's the bottom line here. His team was consistently not performing to an acceptable level of expectations. And it's become so desperate that he's turned to. Twitter potentially, allegedly, and got himself a burner that you found out about through

TikTok, and you don't have to blame it on your kids. I know you got your own TikTok feed, and you're getting ready to produce videos and all that type of stuff. Whatever TikTokers do, I don't know because I don't have that. But at any rate, he's gone on Eddie P. Lyons or whatever the thing is. Okay, so let me hold on. I need to explain this. So before we came on the show today, We were talking about Matt Patricia's burner. My son, beg me, beg me, beg me, beg me for a TikTok. I let him have one, but it's like this private thing that he can only do with his friends. Obviously, I have to monitor it, and therefore I downloaded TikTok, and now I've fallen down the wormhole.

As I am scrolling through yesterday, I see, and it's like a kid that did it. And he's like, I found Matt Patricia's burner. And then he had all this evidence on Twitter. What was the handle on it? At Eddie P. Lions fan. Eddie P. Lyons fan. Apparently Matt Patricia's middle name is Edward. Okay.

So as I am scrolling through and I'm watching this TikTok video, I'm like, no way. I mean, it is incredibly convincing because who else would be overtly positive about Matt Patricia, his level of genius, all the things the lions have done wrong? Like there's stuff about them not drafting Ed Oliver. There's stuff about Matt Stafford not being coachable. Like, look, I don't know for certain if this is Matt Patricia's burner. But I will tell you, it is rather convincing to see someone. I can see very little reason for somebody to be over the top defensive and promoting. Matt Patricia that is not related to or is Matt Patricia.

And it's not just defending him in the overt manner of, you know, like this guy's a good coach. It's these highly specific things like this tweet where he says, Coach Patricia does a great job managing injuries when he's allowed. Like, who the fuck would know that in the public? Eddie Pee! Eddie P. Eddie Pee with the egg as a. Avatar. Egg Avatar, Eddie P. somehow knows how great Petitia is behind the scenes when he gets input. But when he doesn't have input, like the injuries get all fouled up. Nobody would know that.

And it's the most ridiculous type of comment to make. So what if we go to research in there? And he used to be Eddie P. Patriots fan. And like, and we go back and there's like all these old tweets where he's talking about the Patriots defense. And that's how he got the job. No, I think, I definitely think that it was the right move to move on from him, like it is probably the right move on from a variety of these coaches that have either been kicked out or will be soon. Okay, so Dan Quinn in Atlanta, he went by the wayside. We just recently had this Matt Patricia, and there's all these other guys,

Adam Gase, Anthony Lynn. There's a story out yesterday about Doug Peterson, and about how he may not make it through the rest of the season. I mean, this feels like this could be a real bloodletting at the end of this season if these guys even make it to the end of the season. Yeah, I don't know. In some cases, like it seems- Bill O'Brien too, right?

Bill O'Brien, we didn't mention him. I mean, there's been others during the course of the season. Right. And in some cases, it feels to me like some of these guys are being kept on board because they're so bad that it's actually helping the draft chances for the teams. Oh, is that what's happening? Is that what's happening

with my team with Mike McCarthy? No, unfortunately, you guys got hitched to him right away. So, I mean, maybe they'll turn it around there. Like, let's think optimistic thoughts here. But with regard to like Adam Gase and Anthony Lynn and some of these other guys, you know, the one guy that I will say doesn't fit the mold because he's gone to the playoffs in back-to-back years

is that's Doug Peterson. So, like, he's been able to build a team that's actually had success in the playoffs and recent success in the playoffs. Yes, they're having a bad year this season. And yes, you look at that roster and you look at it the last couple of years and you were hoping that they would do better. But I don't necessarily think, and maybe I'm wrong,

but I don't necessarily think he's the guy who's been like, okay, this has been a colossal disappointment year after year for this guy. So he doesn't really fit the mold. But I know the way this works. I know the way this works. The way this works is Harry Roseman, who is the general manager there. Lori's pissed. There's all kinds of stories about Lori pissed

and about how he didn't even go to their road game in Cleveland because he's so pissed about everything. They were talking about this on the broadcast the other night, right? And they were saying this is a big warning sign for this guy not to even go to the road game. And so you've got the owner that's pissed, and the way this happens, Warren, in professional sports, in my experience,

is the owner's going to say, why do we suck? the GM's going to say, we got enough players to be able to win these games. It's a coach's fault. And the coach is going to say, hey, look, we've gotten ravaged by injury, Wentz isn't good enough, whatever he's going to say.

Like, he's going to make his own excuses for why they are not performing. And so this is going to become a general manager. When a team underperforms, it is going to be management versus the coach. And the management is going to say it's the coach's fault. And the coach is going to say he doesn't have the players in order to win. And the coach loses. almost every time

until the next guy comes in and loses and then the owner says, okay, look, that's two guys now. It's your fault. And then they get rid of the GM. But that feels like that's what it's hurtling towards. Whether or not it's fair or not, I'll bet you anything.

That's what's going on because we clearly have an owner that is at his wit's end. Whether he is right or not, he is pissed about the way that team is performing. And it doesn't matter if he's right or not. It doesn't matter. And so now it's a blame game.

And actually, you're right. The Bill O'Brien situation down in Houston is not totally dissimilar to what's going on in Philadelphia this year because Bill O'Brien was able to take this team to playoffs in multiple years, right? Houston was able to go there in multiple years. They just didn't have any form of success. And the players that, like the way that he was more in control of the roster, of course, than Doug Peterson is. but that was an example of a team that still has had playoff success that walked away from their coach. But with guys like Adam Gase, I mean, this guy is absurd. And then he's just straight up lying to the media after the game about his role in play calling and changing his story when they

catch him. I mean, it's funny, A, how the media is like grilling him on these details. And then B, it's funny how he is lying about it and it's pretty obvious. With Anthony Lynn, my God, I mean, I can't even begin to explain my frustration with that coaching staff, but it's not just Lynn. It's like, because Lynn doesn't set the entirety of the game plan. I know he was a former running backs coach, so he's conservative by nature. And I won't get into like this long ass rant on that team because I constantly am bringing that team down. And I don't want to have to keep doing that again. But my God, man, what is the game plan with Austin Echler? He is back off of a multi-week injury. And we're not talking about just like three weeks. We're talking about a lengthy

time away from football. He says he's good to go. You say you're going to work him back and you give him 30 plays. In the second half alone, the bills get the kickoff. They go down and score. You are now down 24 to 6. And you choose to give Austin Echler roughly 50% of your plays in the second half. You target him nine times. You hand a ball out to him nine times. You're giving Keenan Allen only two targets so that you can target Austin Echler nine times. And it's not as if these passes or plays were successful in the least. This guy is averaging like 3.4 yards per target, at 2.5 yards per carry. It was the most asinine game plan.

And this is why, like, forget the in-game decision-making, which Anthony Lynn obviously has failed the class. He's, the teachers, like, don't even show up for the final. You have no chance of passing this thing. You already don't have enough credit to even worry about what happens in the final exam. You're done from a game management perspective. But he's, it's the offensive corner came and come up with a, just appropriate game plan, like a bare minimum game plan that we can use.

It just makes no sense what's going on there. And let me say this, Warren. I view Lynn and even the gay situation. Now look, let me go ahead and make this caveat. Gay sucks, okay? But they don't have talent with the Jets. They got real talent with the Chargers. Like, you watch that team play, and it's like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Hunter

Henry and this Herbert kid is awesome. And like the running back's been okay. And the defense is good. They're guys that you know too. The Jets, they don't even have any players anybody knows. They got 50-year-old Frank Gore. Like, they don't have no weapons. Sam Darnold's

not even playing. What he does, it doesn't matter anyway. And again, No, you're right, you're right. Gaines stinks, but I don't think any coaches winning a bunch of games with that Jets roster. The problem, here's the problem. You're absolutely right. When I look at Anthony Lynn and the

Chargers staff in general, I'm more disappointed because it's like a child. It's like your one of your children where you see the potential, but yet they still continue to make all these mistakes. And you get even more frustrated from that. With Adam Gase, here's the thing, though, you can look at it from the talent perspective to say, hey, they're lacking and they could do better, but I look at it from the decision-making perspective. And this Muppet continues to call run plays at a ridiculously high rate on early downs with Frank Gore, as you mentioned, sucks.

he continues to just trot out 11 personnel on offense and do the same old shit that doesn't work and he recycles it every single week. It's like if you are going like try something, try anything, do something different. Legitimately try to make a game plan that's going to help you win. Instead of just recycling the same shit every single week and, you know, that, hey, maybe, maybe they're comfortable losing every single game. And I think that that's a large part of it. They just want to get a great draft pick. So maybe he's the perfect man for the job. He's just going to do the same shit. It's very predictable. He's going to run the ball when he's losing. And they're happy losing every single game and getting the number one overall. It is kind of crazy because

we could have within the last couple of years, a team draft a quarterback very highly and move on from them within a few years time. It happened with Arizona. Yeah, Arizona. And Josh Rosen. And now we may be doing that all over again with Donald. And if they get the number one pick, you're taking Trevor Lawrence. End of story.

And Sam Darnold's just got to go find another place to play. Yep. Absolutely. Today's Ringner NFL show brought to you by Fanduel. Add a little excitement to your sports watching experience by betting on all the action on Fandual Sportsbook this football season. There's a reason why Fandual is America's number one sports. book. Their app is simple to use. They've got great odds on all the different betting markets,

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or visit 1,800 gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, let's talk about good teams. So I'm watching the end of the Chiefs Tampa game, and Tony Ramos says that he wouldn't be shocked if there was a rematch in the Super Bowl because he thought that Tampa figured out a lot of things as that game went on. Now, the Chiefs are clearly the prohibited favorite in the AFC. What do you make of that statement?

Because I could even tell it took Nance a little bit by surprise. And clearly this has been a talking point since. But anybody that was watching that game heard Romo say that at the end of the game, that he wouldn't be surprised if there was a rematch at the end of the season in the Super Bowl, he meant. Tampa has not played very well over the course of the last couple of weeks, but you had this, you know, game. It was a three-point game against the Chiefs. Romo is a great announcer and a fantastic analyst.

So I think that when he says something, it is given more gravitas. What do you think about that statement? Should we consider Tampa Bay? Should they be thought of that highly? Yeah, I mean, you've got Tom Brady, right, the goat. So anytime you've got him and you've got the talent that they have there, I think there's a lot of things that are possible. So yeah, of course they should be in the hunt.

They should be in the conversation to be a team that is a potential candidate to win the Super Bowl. But I think it's a very, very interesting week for them here because this is their buy week. and they have the opportunity to re-evaluate what they're doing offensively. And I just see an offense that is struggling in two areas. Number one, when you have James Winston, you may want to run the ball a little bit more on early downs. I get that. But now you've got Tom Brady and you have to adapt and adjust and you have to allow this offense to be efficient and be as, plus EV is possible.

And you have to win and lose based upon Tom Brady. It's not going to be based upon, oh, my God, look at this great guy. We acquired Leonard Fournett. Holy crap, we're going to win everything. No, Tom Brady, you're winning this thing or losing it because Tom Brady's either good enough or he's not. And your defense is clearly shown this is not a Super Bowl winning defense. Like, it's not the 2000 Ravens here.

You're not winning this thing because of your defense. You're not winning this thing because of your running game. If you're going to win it, it's because those other parts don't mess up enough and Tom Brady is playing well. And so you've got to entrust Tom Brady to play well. So, number one, stop inefficiently running the football. If your run game is fine, then okay, mix it in. But your run game has not been doing good enough on early downs, on first down, stop doing that so much. Number two, you must incorporate more of what Tom Brady wants to do.

You must go back to what he did in New England with a ton of play action. You know that Tampa Bay Buccaneers are using play action at a ridiculously low 25% of early down passes. That's one of the lowest rates in the NFL. This is not what he was doing up in New England. But if you watch that guy's press conferences, Ariens, I feel like Warren, that Ariens is the kind of guy that would grab you, pull you in a room, and he would say, all right, here, Warren. I hear what you're saying. Now let's watch the film together. This guy's open.

This guy's open. This guy's open. We just got to make the plays. My job is to draw up the plays because he clearly says that. After all of these losses, he's like, I mean, he puts it on Brady more than we have ever heard. Anybody put it on Tom Brady. Like, it's almost as if like, yo, don't play me here. Like, go watch the tape.

We got guys running open. We just got to hit him. end of story. And it's very strange to hear a guy kind of take on Tom Brady like that. But I just sense that that is like he can't help himself. Obviously, he's got a little too much maybe realness in those press conferences. But that's really how he feels. He really feels like this is our offense.

We call these plays. You can criticize this offense however you want. But we got guys running open all over the field and we're not hitting them. I do not disagree with any of that. But what I will add is this. We talk about, you know, there was that documentary Tom versus Time. Well, here's a documentary. It's called Bruce versus Time. And I love Bruce Ariens. And I love what he was doing back in Arizona. And no risk it, no brisket. But listen to me here. Offense is different. It's so much easier to complete passes on early downs. You don't have to be this deep strike attack that has to hope that you're going to hit these pass plays in a

order to see success down the field. The game has changed. The rules have changed. It's a lot easier to pass the ball on first and second down. Shorter passes, move the sticks, mix some deep shots in. But I feel like Bruce and this offense hasn't changed enough, hasn't adapted enough to the modern times and the modern rules construct that we're living in. Let me just tell you this. There's no doubt Tom Brady needs to improve, right? I would have said the same damn thing if it was James Winston, right? You've got to call a spade a spade. Tom is not playing to his peak level and he has to improve. At the same time, it would be ridiculous to think that this offense is perfectly fine and that there's nothing that can be improved here. And I'm looking at this team. They've won seven out of 12 games. Do you know how many of those games they've led at halftime? They've played 12 games this season. You know how many they've led at halftime? You know how many they've led at halftime? Four. Four out of 12 games this team is led at halftime. You are doing something wrong.

And it's more than just, well, on this third and two, there was a guy open. And God damn it, Tom Brady, what the fuck are you looking at? No, it's more than that. You can figure out, you got too much talent here. You can figure out a way to build first half leads. You could figure out a way to use more play action, which Brady used up there, use more pre-stamp motion, design things a little differently. adapt the Bruce Aryan's offense to the strengths of Tom Brady.

And I know they've said, well, we're letting Tom call some of these plays. Like, he's got more an opportunity to get involved here. That's what Bruce has said publicly. But guess what? I don't want Tom going through the playbook and saying, yep, I'll call this play in my brain. I'll call that play in my brain. Like, I remember this from the playbook. Let's call these plays in these situations.

Fucking rewrite the playbook. Let Tom put more of what he wants to put in that playbook during this biweek. And last but not least, we talk. about this, I want to say on the Friday show, but it might have been last week, against defenses that rank in the top 15, the bucks are only one win and five losses in six games. And they're averaging only 20 points per game. These are things that are unacceptable that there's a lot of places to blame here, a lot of people to place blame and point our fingers to. And it's obvious Brady needs to improve, but Bruce needs to come around to the times a little bit. And I really hope

during this by week, they make some changes on offense that are more than just, yeah, let's call more of this play. But redesign the plays and redesign your philosophy on how you're running the ball too much on early downs. Okay, we know for certain because the saints have thoroughly kicked their ass that they would not be favored against the saints. If I put the bucks up against the Packers, if I put the bucks up against the Seahawks, I'd imagine they're probably slight underdogs in those games.

Is that it? I mean, I'm just trying to figure out when Romo says that this is a team that could be there in the Super Bowl, would we slot them now? They have to be behind the Saints. Would you slot them behind the Packers and the Seahawks?

And then they're kind of in that, I don't, I mean, Buck's Rams, who would be favored in that game? Look, I'll just read off, some of this has to do with the schedule, right? But I'll just read off what the Super Bowl odds.

There are five teams ahead. of them in Super Bowl odds. It's the Chiefs, the Saints, the Steelers, the Seahawks, and the Packers. All of those teams have lower odds to win the Super Bowl, and they are slotted in tied with the L.A. Rams. So that is the kind of the neighborhood of teams that we're talking about. So specifically in the NFC, you know, they put a whoopin on the Packers, but they've got the Packers that are in front of them. They're up there with the Rams. They also have the Seahawks and the Saints. So you can see that, like, this is very top heavy, a very competitive NFC, whereas in the AFC, you're talking about the chiefs and the Steelers, and then that's it until you get down to the Buffalo Bills. Okay, so you think real value, if Romo's right, there's probably real value there, right?

Look, this is all I could say about Romo. I love, I love Romo. I love his observations, one of the smartest guys doing it, and obviously got paid as such. so who am I to make any comments? But I will trust a week of Tony Romo studying tape and studying film rather than trust his in-game reaction over three hours less than that of watching, what, like 55 offensive snaps of this team playing in, I don't want to call it garbage time, but you're getting your ass stomped.

What is it, like 27 to 3 or something like? And then you're. you're coming back and scoring a bunch of points and getting back into the game and covering in the backdoor, just like James Winston did so many times for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I do not view that like garbage performance down massively as really, I think it influenced Tony to say that. But I will trust his opinion with a full week of studying this team and then seeing what unfolded in the first half of that game, rather than just his opinion after watching the second half comeback. Certainly could be, you could view that two different ways.

He chose to say, I think they figured things out. The other side, obviously, the devil's advocate would be they just took their foot off the gas because they were kicking their ass. And so, of course, they figured some stuff out, right? They weren't, they weren't playing with the same tenacity. They've got them up 27 to three. Regarding those Super Bowl odds, who is the highest ranked NFCE? team on those odds, Warren, because is it the Giants? I mean, I guess the Giants have to be the favorite to win that god-awful division. I mean, this is crazy. Somebody from that division,

and this has not gotten any better. In fact, it's gotten worse. Somebody from that division is going to host a playoff game, for goodness sakes. Are right now the Giants the favorite to win that? Right now, I'm going to do something that most people think is impossible. I'm going to do something that is probably the most, I'm going to give you the gift of the most valuable commodity in the world, okay? The most valuable commodity in the world is time. And I am not going to, I'm going to give you five minutes back of your day by not talking, not spending five minutes talking about the NFCEs. That's what I'm going to give you, because no, there's nothing that we can say about the NFCEs to make any sense of this thing.

and I think the simple answer, yes, the Giants have slightly better odds. I do think the Washington football team is probably a slightly better team, especially with the way Alex Smith is coming on. And so they have slightly worse odds, but I think better chance. Their schedule is a little bit more brutal. But I'm not going to dive into this too much. I hate talking about the NFC East, whether it's the worst team or the best team. It's all a mishmash.

And I want to give back time to the good listeners of this podcast. Can you give me back my Thanksgiving? Yes. I wish I could. That was, that was, I'm sure. What did you think about that? I just want to know. Oh my God.

Let me, let me, let me just, let me, let me, let me just, this is not talking about the NFCE. Don't. So this is talking about one specific incident. And I want to know the reaction. Give me the play-by-play reaction of the fourth and 10 fake punt where dude runs 20 yards behind the line of scrim. to get, he's got 30 yards or 35 yards to go to get this first down on the fake punt end around play. All right.

Have you not seen this? Have you not, have you not seen the video clips going around? Obviously, Mike McCarthy has enlisted some of his Dallas media friends to put this video out like the, you know, the all 22. And they show the guy running down the field wide open. And so Cedric Wilson's supposed to throw the ball there. This goes, this goes very deep. I know Cedric Wilson's dad.

He was one of the great Tennessee football players. He's a Memphis guy. He also obviously played for the Steelers and had an NFL career. Cedric Wilson is a Memphis kid. So of course, I have this kindred spirit. Like, I mean, here's a Memphis kid playing for my favorite team, and he's made plays throughout the year. He's really come out of nowhere this year making plays.

And they put him in this position, and he's running around. It is a four-point game, Warren. All right, I will tell you, I am fuming, like, to the point where if I was not at my father's house, I would have broken something. My son, who is 10, is laughing hysterically because now he's just to the point of laughter because he doesn't cry. He doesn't get mad about it anymore. He just laughs at how bad we are. And then my dad, who's 73, is telling my son, he's reprimating. I said, don't laugh at him.

Don't laugh at him. And so the whole thing is just an absolute, now, I am very grateful that we get to share this bonding experience of three generations. On the other hand, all three of us had incredibly different reactions. I am furious. My father is depressed and disappointed. And my son is just laughing. And, I mean,

It's a four-point game, Warren. Like, why? Why? What is wrong? And the defense was actually playing good for the first time ever. It was absolute malpractice. And I am so fucking tired of hearing about how awesome this special teams guy is. I swear Jim Fossil's kid gets more airtime than any special teams coach in the history of the world.

And they fucked up like a thousand times this year. They've had one good special teams play. One. And it was the Zerline weird kick. And it only ended up good because Atlanta messed it up. Tony Pollard, who is also a Memphis kid who I love, routinely takes the ball out of the end zone to the 12. Like instead of kneeling down.

That happens all the time. We've had like one good CD-LAM punt return. Like why is this guy known as the end? And we have, every time we have tried a fake punt or something like that, it's been a disaster. And every time it's tried against us, it works. Like, why is this guy held up as the great swami of special teams? He is awful.

I should never even notice special teams, except for kicks and missed kicks. Like, you've gotten me mad now. But this is how I feel as I'm watching the game. Why aren't the camera on this guy? It's like he's a freaking Kardashian or something. I don't even know. You see Kellen Moore once a game and he's showing an iPad to Andy Dalton. You see Mike Nolan maybe once a game.

They show Jim how I know the special teams coordinator. He is the only special team's coordinator in the entire NFL that I know. And I don't know if he goes. and just kisses up to the announcers. You know, maybe he's like the best in the room when they're talking to him trying to get info before the game. But this guy is smooth as all get out. Like Jim Fossil's kid, this amazing special team Swami, who sucks.

He sucks. And Mike McCarthy sucks. And Mike Nolan sucks. I just went through like 10 years of Jason Garrett. and somehow the coaching's worse. How is that possible? How? How?

How? How is it possible? How was the rest of your Thanksgiving, Mrs. Lincoln? It was great. Excellent, excellent. I love it. I love it. It was absolutely great.

Anybody watch a Cowboys game. Hell, everybody will be watching the Stupid Ravens game and watch how much they talk about the special teams coach. It's unbelievable. truly unbelievable. Like you would think, I swear, I'm trying to think

of another special teams coach in the history of the world. I don't know anybody. I've never, like, ever. Do you know any special teams coach's name in the NFL? I swear to God, I don't.

I will tell you that the more brazen that a special teams guy is, and the more like we've seen guys in the past, I think this guy, Danny, something or other, who always chomping on his gum. Like the more out there that these guys are, the more likely they are to get camera time. So maybe this is all just a strategy to get more popularity off of him. But I feel your pain as a Cowboys fan, and this division is certainly going to be fascinating.

I think the Lions should hire him to be the head coach. Would it shock you? Let me just tell you this. Would it shock you to learn that the Cowboy, where would you think the Cowboys special teams rank based on the analytics? And you can tell me if you think these analytics are trash or not. Where do you think they rank? Oh, because I just spent five minutes bitching about it,

they're probably like middle of the pack. Yeah, they're actually 11th, supposedly. Yeah, but that includes Greg Zerline, who's fucking awesome. Correct, correct. Yeah, so that's not fair. Okay, well, what do you want to know? And Chris Jones is good too. The punter's good too. Okay, well, what do you want to know?

kickoff return. Oh, that's pathetic. Okay, so let me see where you guys. They routinely have the ball at the 15. You get it. They give it to you at the 25 or whatever it is. Somehow slightly above average on kickoff return. Okay.

All right, let's throw out the analytics. That's because of a Tony Pollard kickoff. That's it. He had one. There was a long one. Let's move on from the NFCE still. Please. All right.

Please. Last thing. So I bought a bunch of Kyler Murray rookie cards a couple weeks ago, and they're not going up in value recently. Last two weeks. Now, is it opponent that just had a great game plan? We're kind of going a little bit through the Lamar Jackson thing in that the running is a massive weapon that is such a huge problem for the opposing defense. These last two weeks, that has just not been so, right? They are spying these guys.

they are making sure you are not going to beat us with your feet. And what was a guy that was, I mean, he was running for running back numbers. Like I think almost 80 yards a game through the first several weeks of the season. These last few, I mean, he's under 30, I think, in both of the games. And so defenses have clearly, as the season has gone on, said, okay, this guy is not going to destroy us by running for every third and seven to get another. first down to keep the chains moving. We are going to make sure hell or high water, that's not happening against us. Do you think that, I mean, it's time to pivot, clearly, for Kyla Murray and Cliff Kingsbury.

That Arizona team looked like an extremely dangerous team. They have looked much less dangerous the last two weeks. What do you make of it? Well, if we're talking to Kyler Murray specifically, so like let's look at week six onwards. and we're going to start with your Dallas Cowboys, but they've played four teams that have really bad run defenses in that span, like bottom 10 run defenses. You got the Cowboys, the Dolphins, the Bills, and the Patriots.

Now, he ran for massive, like, yards per carry against three of those teams and efficiency. He scored a couple touchdowns against the Bills, only totaled 61 yards, but that still hit his over in his rushing yards prop. He had 106 yards against the Miami. I mean, Dolphins, they stink. Obviously, he almost ran for 10 yards of carry there. And against you guys, he ran for 74 yards about 7.4 yards per carry there. So he did well against those teams.

Now, against Seattle, he had a lot of rushing attempts in their week seven game, but only ran for 4.7 yards per carry. And then in the last game, so the last two games, he has not done well on the ground. Right. He did not have many opportunities. Seattle basically said, we're not going to let this dude run the ball in our rematch game. He only ran the ball five times, only averaged three yards of carry. They popped him.

They hurt his shoulder in that game. Then he's dealing with the hurt shoulder against the Patriots. So he did not run very much there. There are only five rushes there. And the Patriots basically took away the edge. They would not let him run the ball, get outside. They basically set the edge really well. Now, the good news for him for Kyler is that his shoulder eventually should start to heal up

and get a little bit better, and maybe he's not going to be as scared about taking some shots. The bad news is that every single team that they play here on out ranks top 15 and overall run defense. You got two games against the Rams, which are top 10. You got a game against the Giants, they rank 15th. Game against the Eagles and a game against the 49ers, those two teams rank 11th and 10th, respectively. Now, there is a big difference, however, run defense versus quarterbacks and run defense versus running backs. and the Giants are actually even better defending running back, sorry, quarterback runs than they are running back. So that's bad news for Kyler. The Eagles, on the other hand, are much worse defending quarterback runs than they are running back runs. If you look at what the Eagles have done to running backs overall, they're well above average. But if you start factory in quarterback runs and wide receiver runs and things like that, that's when the Eagles run defense drops a little bit further down the list. In general, though, like playing a lot of teams that, are very familiar with you is not going to bode very strongly to your ability to produce.

That's why you saw teams in the other conference like the bills and like the dolphins, getting a lot of rushing yards in there. I think you had the issue with Belichick just taking away his legs and knowing that his shoulder wasn't quite 100%. I don't really love the Cardinals to begin with. I don't think that they do anything remarkably well. they do a lot of things at a average to slightly above average level. It's a very competitive NFC, as we've mentioned before.

I don't know. I don't really have high hopes for the Cardals. This is a difficult stretch of schedule that they've got coming up here. But they got a big game. They're a three-point underdog against the L.A. Rams. The L.A. Rams obviously coming off of a loss. And you're a home underdog to these guys. a massive game here

this upcoming week for the future. You can get three points in this game. The Rams and Jared Goff. I mean, Sean McVey talking about possibly benching Jared Goff. That's what it's come to. Well, I think he's got 13 turnovers I read in like, what, four games?

It's like seven fumbles and six pigs and something insane. Yeah, and Sean McVeigh is a good coach. I find it interesting that Kyle Shanahan has such a great record against him. I was always team Kyle when it came to both of those guys. So Kyle has swept him four straight games. Kyle is four and O against Sean McVe. But Sean McVeigh,

that doesn't mean Sean McVe is a bad coach, right? It doesn't mean he's a bad coach. He's still a good coach, but he's been working with limitations at the quarterback position. And I will say the thing that's impressed me the most about the Rams is nothing to do with their offense. It's their defense. Their defense has been much better, particularly their second half adjustment. on that was not the case against the 49ers of Calhianhan last week. They got the best defensive alignment in the best corner in the world probably. Yeah, but they have not been living up to those expectations, at least not last year. And this season, their second half adjustments have been remarkably good.

And their point total, they allow opponents to put up in the second half has been extremely low. So this has been a very good team defensively in the second half of games in particular. So it'll be fascinating to see what Cliff tries to do here. This is the first game of the season against this defense, the first game that he's going up against the Rams with DeAndre Hopkins involved in this one. So I think it's going to be a great game. I can't wait to watch that one. We actually have a pretty interesting slate because we don't have Thursday night football this week, Chris.

But we've got two games on Monday night. We have a game on Tuesday night. And then we have a game next week on Thursday night. So you can never look too far ahead in this wacky NFL because who knows what's going to happen with games and cancellations and stuff like that. But we've got a nice slate of four, four p.m. kicks, not too many 1 p.m. kicks. And then we've got all these primetime games as the week rolls along. So a lot of good football on tap for us here this upcoming week. We will certainly have a ton to talk about next week.

Warren, I will talk to you then. Thanks to everybody for listening to Another Diss of the Ringer NFL show. Remember, Kevin Clark in the game, we'll be back with you tomorrow.