The Ringer NFL Show - Jalen Hurts and Eagles Agree to Massive $255 Million Contract Extension. What Does This Mean for Lamar Jackson?

Episode Date: April 17, 2023

Sheil and Nora received the breaking news during the podcast that Jalen Hurts agreed to a five-year, $255 million deal, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history at an average of $51 million per year. The contract includes $179.3 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause, the first in franchise history. Will Hurts’s deal have any effect on Lamar Jackson’s contract situation? Plus, we play lie detector with some burning topics around the NFL, including Patriots QB Mac Jones, and who will be drafted no. 1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Nora Princiotti Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did your favorite NFL team win the Super Bowl? No? Then the NFL draft is your Super Bowl. I'm Danny Haifitz, and from now until the draft, we are turning our fantasy football show into the Ringer NFL draft show. Every Tuesday and Thursday, we talk about the top players and most important storylines for the NFL draft. So join us on the Ringer NFL draft show.

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Shield Kapati here. Ben Solek out today. So I'm thrilled to welcome my wonderful friend and colleague, Nora Prince DiOdi, Nora. How we doing? a Monday ringer NFL for you. Shiel, it's a Monday morning. I'm locked in.

I think you and I are the only people, it seems, in the entire NFL cohort of our company who have not taken the week off. I mean, it's just shameful stuff. Ridiculous. Stephen Ruiz also out. I think he's in the Caribbean somewhere, like hanging out on a beach. I'm just kidding. I love vacation.

I fully support those guys. They work very hard. I still like the bit. Yeah, we can shame. them a little bit. Everyone knows we're joking around. We can shame them a little bit. But hey, we get lie detector week. We get Prince Iati Capati a week to work on that a little bit. It's not the easiest thing to say we've both got a lot of vowels in the last names. Here's what we're doing. It's rumor season in the NFL. We would not be the ideal draft picks. We would be making it

tough on the broadcast crews if we were going in the first round. Yeah. Some pronunciation hijinks. Roger Goodell would screw it up. I mean, I don't know, even know if he tries to learn some of these players' names, but I've gone on that rip before. I'll save it right now. Maybe I'll bring it back next week after the draft. Here's what we're doing. A lot of rumors going around. This team's going to do this. This player might slip. This quarterback might be on the move. We're going to sift through all of it. It's lie detector week. It's a two-parter today. We've got five topics we're going to go through and we're going to break out the lie detector. Do we believe what we're hearing, what we're

reading what is being reported, or do we not believe it? And do we think it's a little bit of a smokescreen? So we'll do five topics today. Next episode on Wednesday, we'll do another five topics. By the end of the week, you'll know for sure 100 percent what's real, what's not real, what's truth, what's a lie. What do you think? I think it's a good topic. I'm upset for this topic. Let's do it. All right. I love it. First one, we just start at the top of the draft. a lot of buzz recently that Bryce Young is the Panthers pick at number one. Most recently, Peter King in his column today said, Young is quote, head and shoulders in the lead to be the first pick in the draft.

You've read this, you've seen this in other places. Are you buying it? Are you buying it that, what, 10 days from now, finally, the draft is here. 10 days from now on Thursday night, Roger Goodell will go up there. and announce Bryce Young as the number one pick to the Panthers in the NFL draft. What do you think? I'm buying it. I think it's true.

I will tell you that I tried really, really, really hard to talk myself into going against the grain with this one because the one piece of it that I just can't shake is that when the Panthers made their trade to go up to number one, most of the buzz at that point was, yeah, maybe they're still deciding. They've still got a lot of prep work to do. But if there's someone they're going up for, it's probably C.J. Stroud. And that has obviously changed since then.

Now, if we think about it that way, then all of the rumors, all of the reporting, all of the buzz has only changed from the Panthers went up for probably C.J. Stroud to the Panthers went up for Bryce Young. as we have become more and more sure that Houston loves Bryce Young, which means that the buzz has only changed as it has become more and more clear that it would be in the Panthers best interest to convince people that they're taking Bryce Young at one and that if a team like Houston is really set on Bryce Young or no one else,

then they would have to move up to one and get him. just can't quite go there. The reporting is just too widespread that everybody who talks to everybody believes that they're doing this for Young. The betting markets also believe that Bryce Young is going to be the number one overall pick. Now, our friend Benjamin Solek did remind me, they're not always right this far out, you know, 2018. At this point in the process, Baker Mayfield being taken number one overall by the Browns

would have been a real surprise. and then it wasn't until the day of the draft that everybody starts going. Oh, man. This might actually, there's a switch up going on. So it's not crazy, but there is too much smoke for me not to believe that there is fire here. And I tried really hard to be able to go with the counter pick here. But I can't do it. I think Bryce Young is the pick at number one.

I think the hard thing about this one is we don't know who has the juice in Carolina. You know, like a lot of teams, you're looking around saying, all right, the coach is making the call, the GM's making the call, the owner is meddling. Like, I'm unsure in Carolina, like, if they disagree, who's making the final decision? You know, GM Scott Fitterer was there before Frank Reich. He was there with Matt Ruhl. He stays on and is still the GM. Frank Rike gets hired this offseason. He's the new coach, but this isn't like Sean Payton.

I mean, you know, Frank Wright got fired in the middle of last season. I think he's a good coach, but this isn't somebody who comes in and, you know, you say whatever he wants to do, that's what we're doing. And then, of course, we have the owner, David Tepper, who in five years, Nora, 29 and 50, I can't believe it's five years, first of all. I was shocked when I read that. I'm like, how has it been five years? It feels like he just got there. Yeah. Yeah. But he's 29 and 53 without a winning record or a playoff berth with him as the owner. I mean, in modern day NFL to go five years without a winning record, like, you've got to suck pretty bad. Like you are a disaster franchise if you're going five years and you can't even like luck in

to one nine and eight. So he's in it too. You know, I know, I think in Peter King's column, he said he's hearing that David Tepper is letting the football people do their job. I mean, we'll see when push comes to shove. If there's a guy he wants, I'm a little skeptical that he'll hand it off to one of those guys. So I think that's what makes it tough. But ultimately, I side with you. I think it is going to be Bryce Young. I do think the other side of it is, hey, If they're close, if you like them both, get it out there that it's Bryce Young. And then maybe we get a deal with the Houston Texans who we'll get to in a moment here. You get some additional draft capital and there wasn't that much separating the two.

And you go that route. But I think it's going to be young. What do you got? The only other thing I think we should mention is that Joe Person, who's a fabulous reporter, covers the Panthers at the Athletic on Friday, reported that Anthony Richardson is, quote, still in the mix there. So it seems like there is some possibility that Young is the clear leader in the clubhouse, but that there is some variation in opinions there. And that, I think, brings us back to the point you made about how much ownership is involved here. Because it's one thing to say, okay, you know, David Teper has decided that he's not meddling in this.

And if all of the football people have clear conviction on. it's obvious who we've got to take with this pick. We went up to number one with an idea in mind and nothing we've seen in the draft process has moved us away from that. We know what we've got to do. Here's our pitch. We're absolutely sure.

It's one thing for an owner like David Tepper to say, no, despite all of that, I want you to go the other way. If there's multiple people on the football side who feel a little bit differently, who, you know, okay, some people are more concerned about Bryce Young's size.

Frank Reich has never had a quarterback anywhere near Bryce Young's size. Now that's not exactly saying much because it's so unprecedented. But if there's variable opinions there, then does an owner, you know, get into the draft room and go, you know what?

I feel the best about this guy. I'm really, I'm really enamored with Anthony Richardson skill set. And if you guys can't get together, well, I own the team. So I want you to pull the lever there. So it doesn't, there does seem, Like the fact that there are multiple names in the conversation does make me think a little bit more about the idea that it's a smokescreen to at least see if they can tempt Houston.

But there's just, I mean, Peter King, Adam Schaefter, the one guy who's reporting it the other way and saying that C.J. Stroud is going to be the pick is Ryan Lee, which will be a real flex if he turns out to be right, like our newest insider. but where I finally land on this is too much smoke not to be fire. Bryce Young's going to be the guy. Yeah, that would be amazing. I thought the same thing when I was prepping for the pot. I'm like, all right, is anyone still saying Stroud? And that was the one tweet that came across, Ryan Leaf being like it's obvious. It's been the case for a while.

Listen, he might be right. It happens sometimes. Go off King. Yeah. Yeah. Well, listen, we'll have you on a future episode, Ryan Leaf, if you nail that. And you're welcome to come on and break some news on the ringer. NFL show. So we'll say, you're right. I'm with you. If it's like a tiebreaker situation,

you know, maybe it's just the owners. And because the other thing is, last thing on this, Fitterer and Reich, and I've covered both a little bit. I'm not, you know, I don't know either one like intimately, but they're both like agreeable guys. Like that's their, you know, they're kind of, the best thing about each of them, it seems like is that they're easy to work with. People like working with them. They're not like my way or the highway type guys. So if they're kind of on the fence there and they need a tiebreaker, maybe it ends up being the owner. But I do think it's going to end up being Bryce Young. All right. Hold on here, Nora. Before we get to the Texans, we've got some breaking news. The NFL never sleeps.

April 17th, the morning of April 17th, we're getting breaking news involving a quarterback contract. Jalen Hertz. Extended by the Philadelphia Eagle. five years, $255 million, $179 million, guaranteed. So the first QB domino falls of the offseason, Justin Herbert still to come, Joe Burroughs still to come, Lamar Jackson maybe to come, but before all those, Jalen Hertz gets the big extension from the Eagles. What do you think? What's the initial reaction? You know what's funny is like things it's a good reminder of how fast things change in the NFL.

Like if we had done this show one year ago, the conversation around the Eagles, the conversation around the picks that the Eagles have in the draft this year, so completely different than I'm seeing that there's a no trade clause. I mean, this is like a Jalen Hertz is the future of the Philadelphia. Philadelphia Eagles. This is like unequivocal. This has got to be the highest because he's higher paid than Mahomes now. Yep. Right? Because that's 51 million a year. Yep. Highest annual salary of any player in NFL history, $51 million. For now, now Herbert and Burrow, they'll probably, you know, they're like, all right, we want to beat that. And it won't be long lived. But yes, for now, it's the richest contract based on annual salary for any player in the NFL ever. Wow. Are you, if I'm asking you to put your Eagles fan, Eagles follower, Eagles, Eagles expert hat on here, are you happy they did this?

Yeah. I mean, I think Eagles fans were probably just, it always seemed like a matter of when, not if. I mean, they've, if you look at the history of their franchise, they never get to the point where it's like, what do we do? Are we, you know, they'll overpay and just be like, that's our guy. They did it with Carson Wentz. They did it with Michael Vic. They did it with Donovan McNabb. they just feel like when you have a quarterback who you think is your franchise guy,

you go ahead, you pay him. And if it doesn't work out, you figure it out then, which they had to do with Carson Wentz, but you kind of don't mess around. You don't nickel and dime them. You just kind of go all in on the player. So I think Eagles fans would be very excited about this, that it's done, that you don't have to think about it in the months ahead because I just did a radio hit this morning and was asked about like, hey, you know, why hasn't this deal happened yet?

And my big thing was like, I don't know, I didn't know what Jalen Hertz wanted, you know, like how important was guaranteed money to him. Did he want a shorter term deal where he can hit free agency in three or four years? Did he want the Patrick Mahomes deal and just be like, I'm happy here. Let's just, you know, be together for the next 10 years or whatever. And so it kind of falls in to a middle ground there where it's a five-year extension. He was already under contract next season. He's the highest paid quarterback in the NFL right now at 51. million dollars per year, his guarantee of 179.

I believe that's second now behind only Deshawn Watson, so he doesn't get the, you know, he's not getting the Watson fully guaranteed deal. But other than that, he gets as much guaranteed money as he wants. And that no trade clause is pretty interesting to me that I wonder if this is, I don't know if trend is the right word, but if quarterbacks want to be like a little bit protected with where they go, you know, they'll say, all right, we'll show you a little bit of loyalty, But I think producer Cliff is coming in saying that's the first no trade clause in Eagles franchise history, which is pretty interesting. So it's like, all right, but if things don't work out, I'm going to have a say in where I want to go.

You're not just going to ship me to some team that I don't want to go to. So I think that's another pretty interesting wrinkle about this. But your point was so good earlier. I mean, a year ago, this franchise was at least exploring Deshawn Watson, Russell Wilson. gathering draft picks. In case it doesn't work out with Jalen Hertz in 2023, we want to have that flexibility, that optionality to make a big move this offseason. Jalen Hertz goes in, has a fantastic season in 2023. They get to the Super Bowl from an intangibles perspective. He gives you everything you want and they make the investment. So

if you're an Eagles fan, I mean, you got to be excited about this, especially when we zoom out and we say what wins in the NFL, it's offensive efficiency year over year. And now they have Hertz, Devanti Smith, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goddard, all those guys, I believe, are signed for the next three years. And we know their offensive line. They're going to invest there. And that's going to be good. So they're really well positioned for this to be, what, a top eight offense for the next three to four years if they don't get stung with bad injury luck or whatever. And specifically in the NFC, where it's like, hey, there's no Mojoms. There's no Burrough. There's no Josh Allen. There's no hurt. Like it's up for grabs in the NFC. They've got to feel. really good about how they're positioned. The Eagles always get a lot of credit for having a smart front office, which I think they do. And I think this is going to be another first reaction. I think this is going to be another thing that they end up looking very smart on. Because you mentioned the five-year deal term.

It is sort of middle ground because we have that Mahomes deal as an anchor. Other than that, though, I think we are seeing a lot of, and I think some of the buzz around what the assumption of what Herbert might be interested in, what Burrow might be interested in, is that they might be looking to sign slightly shorter, you know, the three, four year deal that allows a player to fairly quickly get back to the open market

and take advantage of the ever-rising salary cap and quarterback contracts just seem to go up and up and up and up. But we're looking at this and going to go. okay, 51 million sets a new high water mark for average annual value. Huge deal. But Philly got out in front of those two other guys. Yes. Signing their deals, which will also be huge.

And it's relatively, you know, they've locked him down for five years, which I would consider relative to what I'm expecting some of these other quarterbacks to do, a fairly healthy amount of team control. So this is another example of something where, you know, the numbers are huge, right? Yeah. But I wonder, and I wouldn't be surprised if in a year or two, or maybe even sooner, we're looking at this Hertz deal and going, he earned his money and he got paid, but the Eagles are smart and they do things early and they save themselves a pretty penny

in the long run by doing things this way. The longer you wait, the more expensive it gets. I mean, that's just how it goes with quarterback. So you're absolutely right on that, even just waiting months. I mean, I would imagine, like I said, Herbert and Burrow will say, all right, well, we want to beat that. We saw what he made. And even if it's, let's say, $53 million per year, like, you look at it, say, oh, so what is it?

Well, $2 million per year. Like, I don't know. That's like a, that's a player. Like, that could be a starting running back, honestly. That could be a starting guard. And so not that you're counting every, you know, little cent here. But I think they got to a point where I think Hertz got stuff that he wanted in terms of annual salary, guarantee and no trade clause.

I think Eagles get stuff that they wanted. They get ahead of the market. They don't want this to drag into June, July, where this is a question going into training camp. Is this going to get done? So it seems like a really a win-win. He's coming off that Super Bowl where, man, I just remember watching that Super Bowl film going, the Eagles didn't really outscheme the Chiefs.

Their offense versus the chief's defense. Hertz kind of just put the team on his back at times in that game. And so if you can go sort of toe to toe with Mahomes, I know. he had the bad fumble that was a big play. But just as a passer, he kind of went toe to toe with Mahomes in a spot like that. And you can say, yeah, but he's got the old line. He's got the web, but he's going to have those things like for the next at least three years. So I would understand that argument more if it's like, oh, well, now you're not going to be able to hold on to A.J. Brown or Devon. But that's not the case. Those guys are under contract. And now you have this core

you can really grow with. Listen, the Eagles have been chasing sustained success really since the McNabb-Reed era. Like, you know, if you just kind of look at, I know they've made two Super Bowls, and that's very impressive and better than most teams here. If you look in between that, they were a very mediocre team. If you just look at overall record, I think under Howie Roseman, they've gotten to the divisional round in back-to-back seasons just once during his tenure as a GM. And part of that is, it's hard to get to the divisional round in back-to-back seasons.

But I would thank Eagles fans, the approval rating on this deal. would be like above 90%. I can't imagine there's many Eagles fans who look at this and say, what are they doing? How could they do this? For some of the reasons you just laid out there as well. All right.

Who thought breaking news on it? Breaking news on April 17th? Unheard of. Sheel, can I ask you one more thing about this? Yeah. If you are sitting in Baltimore, Maryland, today watching this news break as we are right now recording this podcast,

how are you feeling about this impacts what's going on with Lamar Jackson. You know what? Let's do this. We're into a little skip around. Okay. So this is a great transition. This is why you're a professional because on our docket today, we're getting back to the lie detector. Let's do this. Oh, that's right. Yeah. Here's what we're doing. We'll take a little break. We come back and then let's talk about Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. We'll transition into how this deal affects Lamar and then what's going on with Baltimore because that's also on the lie detector docket. We'll talk about it.

in a second. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. All right, so here was another lie detector topic. Again, we'll get back to this. We've got five of them. We talked about the Panthers and Bryce Young. We'll get back to the Texans. But I like this move because the Hertz deal really does relate to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. So here's what I've got on the lie detector docket. Everything's going to work out for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. And so let me give you some background to why I put that on the list here today. They sign a Odell Beckham Jr. He has the nice face time with Lamar Jackson.

They replaced Greg Roman with Todd Munkin earlier in the offseason. There has been zero movement, zero reported movement of a team showing actual interest in signing Lamar Jackson this off season now that he's got that

franchise tag. Eric Dicosta, the Ravens GM at the Odell Beckham Jr. press conference that Lamar is in our plans. we love Lamar. Feelings have not changed, hopeful to get a long-term deal done. Now Lamar sees this deal that Jalen Hertz just did. Nice deal, not the Deshawn Watson deal, but a very nice deal.

What do you think about the lie to tech? Are things moving in a direction where we're going to be sitting here in week one going, oh, Lamar is quarterbacking the Ravens, and we had a lot of content in the offseason, but he's back there. Things are okay. He's their franchise quarterback. Where do you land on this? So let's be really clear for our listeners.

Are we defining works out as Lamar is quarterbacking the Ravens week one this season? And he's, yes, and he's in like an okay place. I'm not going to say he's thrilled, but it's not a situation where he's just like, you know, the hurt feelings, because I think you're right, we have to define it. The hurt feelings are in a place where he can go out there and play quarterback at a high level. So I think he plays there. I think he plays there this season. I think he plays there and avoids a holdout, hold in something where the hurt feelings significantly impact his actual availability for games or training camp or practice or whatever it is there.

So if that's the bar, yes. I think that's where this ends up. And I think the Hertz deal is another data point that moves the needle in the direction of that happening. Because you have another big quarterback contract that doesn't actually change the paradigm. Right. So Hertz gets huge signing bonus, big average annual salary number, but does not get, you know, a full guarantee, does not get something. that changes what we think of as the normal structure of a big quarterback deal. I give this qualifier asterisk, whatever you want to call it.

Every time I talk about the Lamar situation, it is really complicated because we don't actually know what he wants and where the Ravens have been willing to go, where they have maxed out on what they've offered him. So when I say that, it is because we know that that Watson deal was an anchor. for Lamar at one point when this situation got started, I don't know and I don't want to imply that he's sitting there in a room or, you know, on the phone with Eric Dacostas saying, I want X number of years more than, you know, for fully guaranteed. I want a fully guaranteed deal in the style of the one Deshaun Watson got. Not saying that that's happening. I want to be very clear about that. But

because it was a factor, the more deals like this that happen and it'll, you know, add to it if Burrow does something different, if Herbert does something different, depending on how long this takes. I think that does move the needle in the direction of, look, this just isn't going to happen. And part of why I believe that is as much as I would love to see Lamar because I think he's a great player. He seems like a great person. And, you know, you sort of want to root for the iconoclast. I would love to see this work out for him. I believe that going so far out on a limb without the tool of free agency

and without the power that that gives a player is just a really, really, really hard self. So I continue to believe that he's in a relatively weak position. Which brings us back to, yeah, I think he plays for them. I just don't think that he has all that much else in terms of options and without something coming out of left field to give him more leverage. Baltimore should be able to get pretty much what they want here. My sense this whole time has been that there are a lot of hurt feelings.

So I am a little hesitant to say that that's not a factor once they get into the regular season. That said, Lamar is a really, really competitive guy. and NFL players in general are pretty good at compartmentalizing. So I think in terms of what it means for how he plays, yes, I think this works out. I think he's there. And I think, you know, with the coaching staff, it's probably all going to be okay. Particularly, you know, Monkin's this fresh face.

I would be really excited to see what that offense looks like. OBJ is in there. they have a good rapport. You get some positive momentum. Those vibes that we love to talk about, Shield, the vibes are going. Maybe it doesn't solve everything with the front office. Like we've seen with Aaron Rogers,

you know, a completely different situation. But there's certainly many examples of players or just situations in the NFL where there's animosity between one part of an organization and another, but not all of them. So maybe he works things out with the coaching staff,

but not the front office. And if he's playing on the tag, we have to do another round of this next year or the year after. Or he doesn't have a long-term future with Baltimore. He's not going to do a multi-year deal there or whatever. But yes, I think he can work it out with the coaches and be there in the fall.

Let me paint a dream scenario if you're a Ravens fan. Lamar Jackson scrolling through Twitter, he sees this jail and Hertz deal. He says, all right, I mean, that's a nice deal right there. You know, you'll see the idea that he's the highest paid player in NFL history. You're seeing the guarantees. You're seeing all this kind of positive press, both the Eagles and for Hertz, Lamar Jackson picks up the phone, calls Eric Acosta, and says, Eric, that bygones be bygones.

I'll take maybe a million, you know, just give me like a few hundred thousand over that Hertz deal. I'll take that exact same deal. I'll be there for OTAs or mini-camp. We put the past behind us and we move forward here. Eric Acosta calls owner, Steve Bishotti, they say, you know what? Might be a little bit higher than we thought we were going to have to go, but we sort of put ourselves in this position. Let's go ahead and make the deal.

We want him here long term. We've said that this entire time. Great press conference. Everyone's hugging. Draft comes around. Jackson Smith and Jigba there at what, the 22nd pick or whatever they have. You go into training camp. You have a happy paid Lamar.

You have Todd Munkin as your new O.C. Lamar is thrown to Odell Beckham Jr., Rashad Bateman, Jackson Smith and Jigba, and Mark Andrews. Leaps and bounds the best pass catching course. he's had there. You're feeling is the best you felt as a Ravens fan since that MVP year. I mean, your future is settled. In negotiations, not everyone's going to be 100% happy, but not every, you don't, you want both sides to feel like they got something and gave a little something up. Everyone's happy there. So I think that's the dream scenario if you're a Ravens fan. Now,

the key here is exactly what you said. We are not inside Lamar Jackson's head. We don't know how hurt the feelings are, how personal this has gotten, how willing he would be to even say, yeah, I want that Hertz deal. But whether he says, that's cool, Hertz settles for that. Well, guess what? I'm not jailing Hertz. I'm not feeling Hertz. Nor are we in Eric DeCostis head, right?

Because, okay, as part of Hertz's deal, he gets $126.5 million fully guaranteed before year two. That's according to Ian Rappaport. $110 million fully guaranteed its signing. But that $126.5 in the first two years, that is what? Six and a half million shy of the $133 million offer that Lamar said over three years was where Baltimore went for him. Now, again, I'm going to talk myself for us with the disclaimers. I have no idea if that is as high as they've gone, certainly.

And that would have been a bad deal. And he would have been, as he said, totally right to not take that. But if they are, if that is even sort of like in their ballpark expectation, they were offering just a little bit over that for three. And that's basically Jalen Hertz's guarantee for the first two years. So it's possible that this is significantly more money than Baltimore is psyched about paying for Lamar. So it might cut both ways there. But the central point, as you were saying, is that the thing that I am most wary of here is just that I think it's turned into a situation where just everything is so meaningful in terms of respect and value and mutual appreciation. And that can be a tough place to negotiate from.

Yeah, he might have his heels dug in. Now, what you said earlier is exactly right. He's not operating from a place of leverage here because there has not been interest from other teams. you can choose to hold out and not sign the franchise tag. But then what do you do? Like you just miss game checks. There's no real, you know, you're trying to force the team's hand, but then you get in a tricky situation there where you're not.

You probably have OBJ facetiming you being like, you got to come back, man. This is horrible. I hate it. I know. You might. So we'll see what happens there. I think we're on the same page. We're not willing, you know, it might, now it might change.

If Herbert and Burrow signed deals in the same neighborhood as, jail and Hertz, then maybe again, maybe Lamar Jackson revisits it and says, all right, that's the, those are the deals. And maybe the Ravens then, they have to revisit it. I mean, if they sign deals that are similar to Hertz and the Ravens say, no, we're not going there with Lamar, then I think you're going, well, you know, give me a break. Like, that's kind of the market for a quarterback in that category. You have to go there where he would be dumb to actually sign the deal. So again, a little give and take from both sides. But you can see at least a little bit, I feel like, for the first time in a while,

you can see a path maybe to this working out for the Ravens, although nothing is guaranteed. This show has taken us all over the place. So I thought we had a nice, neat little structure. We'll be out of here, in and out, and then all of a sudden, a big quarterback extension. I love it. We get to react in real time, figure out the ripple effects. All right, like four hours ago, it feels like I brought up the Houston Texans as the second point on this podcast. The lie detector test was the Texans do something

other than draft a quarterback at number two. This is one that has picked up steam in recent weeks. I feel like you see it in a lot of places everywhere. The rumor being that the Texans loved Bryce Young,

they were going to sit at two and draft Bryce Young, but they don't necessarily love the other quarterbacks. And so if Bryce Young goes first to the Carolina Panthers, the Texans could either look to trade out, They could look to draft someone else at number two, but they could do something other than

draft a quarterback at number two. Where is the Nora Princiati lie detector on this rumor that is swirling 10 days before the draft? All right. I'm going to answer your question with a couple of questions, Jill. Nick Sterio, Texas General Manager. Who did he study under? Who is sort of like in his career who was leading the show as he was coming up? Belichick, right?

Or am I missing somebody? What did Bill Belichick do in the first round of the draft last year? Last year he took Cole Strange. Did he trade down? Yeah, he drafted a guard that everyone had mocked in like the hundreds pick range. So let's just understand that this guy has been schooled in an environment where doing weird stuff in the draft is perfectly fine. And I do think that that's relevant when we try to sort of like understand what the

mindset is here. I think this is possible. I think it's pretty clear they love Bryce Young and don't love C.J. Strout. It is going to be a tough sell to an owner, to a fan base, to not only not draft a quarterback, quarterback in number two, but to do that after having passed on quarterback at three and 15 in last year, right? So obviously, they also have picked 12.

So if they feel that the board is likely to fall in a way where there's someone that they like that they could get either there or by packaging picks and trading up from there, then I think the point is kind of moot because if they don't like Stroud, they shouldn't pick him that high in the draft. And if you can get someone who's one of the top five guys, let's say, and that's who they really believe in, then they should do that. of first round quarterback and that sort of counts. So I don't think that we're talking about with two premium picks in back-to-back drafts not coming away with a sort of household name round one draft quarterback. I kind of believe that too. Yeah. Sorry, go ahead.

I just think that they don't seem like they like C.J. Stroud. And it seems like that's, that's, you know, of the consensus top two, that's who's going to be there. Now, it does feel like there's starting to be more and more movement on the idea of Anthony Richardson being number two or even number one on more and more draft boards. So if things start to shake up there and they had an opportunity to either trade that pick or if the draft falls in a way where there's, I don't think it's Bryce Young because I think Bryce Young is going going number one, but where maybe they're another one of those teams that really sort of

gets enamored of Richardson as we get closer and closer to draft day, then something changes. But I think that the basis of a lot of the reporting about what they're thinking of doing with that number two pick is, hey, so if Bryce Young goes number one, are you guys going to take C.J. Stroud. And it seems like the answer to that question is no. So I think it is likely that they will do something other than draft a quarterback at number two. And just to go back to my original point, I think it would be a bad idea to take like a quote unquote impact defender with the number two pick in the draft. I also think that Nick Casario would absolutely do it. Like he would do they just don't care about I'm speaking as if he

still works for the Patriots, but like they don't care about the consensus draft board. They don't care about what they think other teams value players, where they think other teams value players. It's just less important to people that come up through that organization than it is around the league. So I would almost not rule anything out. There's almost too much smoke to this one for there not to be at least some truth behind them, behind that they're actually thinking about doing this. And I'm with you. What a terrible idea that would be. You have the number two overall pick. You have no quarterback. You have no, you know, you have a new head coach. Like, I think CJ Stroud is a very good prospect, you know, like it does not seem like you have to

overthink it. If you love Anthony Richardson, go ahead there. But I feel like both Bryce Young and CJ Strouds, C.J. Stroud are very good prospects. It would almost signal like a tank for Caleb Williams type approach to this, which is very dangerous because you have no idea if you're going to get the number one pick next year. All it takes, as we saw this year, is for one week. thing to happen in week 18 and all of a sudden you don't have the number one pick. So it would be very strange to me. But as you said, the other thing, this relates to the Panthers conversation. Who has the juice in Houston? I mean, it seems like Domech O'Reyons, right? There's a lot of rumors. We're going to talk about Nick Casario in the next episode. But like, is Nick Casario sort of setting the

draft board? But D'emico Ryan's is like, well, here's what I, you know, here's actually what we're going to do, you know? Yes, your team can scout all the players. We'll read those reports. We'll talk to you. But when push comes to shove, I'm going to make this decision. So I'm with you. But then it's like you have, I mean, I love Damica Ryans.

But do I want a young, inexperienced, defensive head coach making massive franchise altering decisions about young quarterbacks, about developmental quarterbacks? Again, D'Amigo can do almost no wrong to me. I think that's weird. It's just a weird situation in Houston right now, which I think adds into the sense that they could do something a little bit bizarre here. By the way,

Damiqa Ryan's coming from a place where he had one of the only coaches who can really do more with less at quarterback. You know, like he had, he just spent time with a guy who Brock Purdy, Jimmy, like these guys are looking good in his offense. Well, guess what?

That is not the norm. That happens sometimes. That usually does not happen. Kyle Shanahan is not coming with you. to Houston. So I'm with you there. Listen, the Texans are not a well-run organization. We know that. We can't forget that now. They've been a disaster from the top down for years, for years. And just because they got a head coach who we all like, and I thought he was probably maybe the best head-coaching candidate out there in the off-season, just because they did that one thing right.

We can't forget everything else that they do wrong. So anything is in play here. I'm with you. I would be furious if I were a Texans fan. And they just draft. to defensive player or whatever. And they say, well, he was the best player on our board. At the same time, I guess if you hate all the quarter, I mean, I don't know how you hate all the other quarterbacks. Like at some point, you have to pick one. But man, that would be a tough bill to swallow if you're a Texans fan.

I kind of said this, but I don't know that I made the point clearly enough, so I'll say it again. A good thing for them is the fact that there's all this buzz about Anthony Richardson. And it seems like more and more teams are really, really interested in him. because I think that makes it much, much, much more possible that a worthwhile trade up to two, that there would be teams interested in doing that. Because of a handful of teams get really, really, really psyched about Richardson, then there's decent odds that he goes even before Stroud.

And then whether that means that Houston still has to figure out where and who to take, as far as a quarterback, or if it means that they can go take a defender, whoever, but just somewhere where it's a little bit less, a little bit more defensive to do that, that would be a real win for them, I think, particularly if they feel this way, which it seems like they very much do. So the best possible scenario there, if there isn't a quarterback that they're interested in taking it at two, is that they can find a way to trade that pick because while I think they would take a defensive player or somebody else like,

ugh. Another great transition, because when we come back from our last break, we're going to talk about one, Anthony Richardson. And then we will finish with a little Patriots talk on the Ringer NFL show. Hoo-hoo.

All right. We are back on the Ringer NFL show. Nora set up our next topic here for the lie detector. Here's what it is. Anthony Richardson, goes off the board in the top three picks. Let me tell you where I'm coming from, why I put this one on here.

You might have been thinking, why is she'll emailing me this? This is dumb. Of course he's going to go off the board in the top three picks. We talked about it last week. Who could trade up to number three? Who could potentially like Richardson?

Could have been maybe the Colts, the Seahawks, the Lions, the Raiders, the Falcons, the Titans, the Patriots. There's a lot of teams that you say, all right, they might want to do it. But usually every year, it feels like there is a quarterback or maybe a player who the public, the media, the draft NICs are a little higher on than the actual NFL decision makers. Draft night rolls around and we're going, how is this player slipping in the draft?

Anthony Richardson is like one of the hardest evaluations maybe in NFL history. I mean, 13 career starts, completed 54.7% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. That's not all his fault. We know that. You watch his 25 best plays and you go, I'm in love. Absolutely. Bring me this man as a top three pick. He's got it all. He's the most athletic quarterback prospect we've ever seen. He's a dynamic and a powerful runner. We've never seen a prospect like this. But how does the league view him? I mean, how many teams are comfortable taking a quarterback where his running is going to be a significant part of the equation, not saying he can't be a great passer, he's got the arm, he's shown in his 13 starts. Again, the flashes are absolutely there,

but I think when you look at Anthony Richardson, you would say whatever team drafts him, yes, absolutely, the running is going to be part of the equation. So is there a chance that we look at it and we say, you know what, or the NFL decision makers look at it and GM say, I'm not willing to risk the only chance I'll have at this job for a player like Anthony Richardson in a top three pick, especially if it's a team that has to trade up there because there's so much uncertainty about what he's going to actually become. So that's the case. That's why it's on there, Nora Preciati.

Where are you with the lie detector? Anthony Richardson does go off the board in the top three picks. Yeah, I'm buying it. I'm buying it particularly, You know, you go through, he's had a ton of visits with teams that either have one of those top three picks or are among the list of teams that, you know, thinking maybe they trade up for that Cardinals pick. And for as much as I think it is possible that we can end up going, oh, the media evaluation on this guy and the league-wide evaluation on this guy could end up being different. that could be one of the takeaways after draft night based on the difficulty of that evaluation, I kind of go the other way.

I kind of go, I think teams can fall in love with this guy. And it feels like that's what's going on. I mean, again, we have even heard that he is in the mix for the number one overall pick. It's not out of the question. And the other thing that I think factors into my answer here, I think quarterbacks have a good job. chance to go one, two, three, four in this draft. Wow. Just based on how it feels like the league increasingly feels about the position, the fact that

people are not in love with this draft and therefore you just default to the difference making positions, right, and particularly quarterback at the top of the draft. And really the only thing that would surprise me is Will Levis not being the fourth guy off the board right now. Just because it feels like the buzz on Richardson is enough that a critical mass of teams would be interested in going up for him. Because it only takes a handful, right? If it were, I need the vast majority of NFL GMs to really believe in this guy.

Well, it's a lot tougher because he's a polarizing prospect. But I think the skill set is such that if you have, you know, two or three of those six teams, we know at least, that have called the Cardinals, really get excited about him, then I think he's gone within three. And then maybe, since we know a quarterback needy team in Indy is at four, then maybe that's how you end up getting quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. Now, that would be somewhat surprising, but I just, I don't even think that we can roll that out. So I think Anthony Richardson going off the board and top three picks is like

looking fairly likely at this point. I think you're probably right. It just takes one. It takes one team to be aggressive, one love, one GM saying, you know what? If I don't get find a quarterback now, I might not be here next year. Let's just roll the dice on the upside. I'm going to be fired if it doesn't work. I'm going to be fired if I don't take a swing at a quarterback. So job security in the NFL is, you know, that is the NFL. GM's half. You know, that is the NFL. to certainly think about this. And so if you're zooming out, it might be more prudent to say, all right, we don't need to be that aggressive this year. Let's be patient. But at some point, you have to take a swing. We see it with teams like the Colt, like the Falcons. Like, you can't

just keep kicking the can down the road. And all of a sudden, it's 20 years later. Yeah, well, we haven't found the perfect quarterback prospect. Well, you know what? At some point, you have to take a risk and you have to gamble on one of these guys. So I think you're right. I mean, the top, I was saying this last week, the top of the draft is like amazing this year. I mean, we talked to the first pick, all right, even if we think that's going to be Bryce Young, second pick, we have no idea. Are they trading out? Are they drafting a quarterback?

Third pick, it feels likely that someone's trading up with the Cardinals. Fourth pick, we have no, Jim Mersey, maybe one of the biggest wildcards in the NFL right now. We have no idea what they're going to do. Seahawks. They have any interest in a quarterback. Are they taking jail in a car? I mean, the top five picks are going to be amazing in this year's draft. And I think you and I are on the same page.

I think it's going to happen with Richard said. I would not be shocked, though, if all of a sudden he starts to slip a little bit in that scenario, I painted out at the beginning of this segment plays out, and teams are going, you know, I just can't quite get there with being aggressive. I don't think that's the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible. All right, let's finish with number five. The New England Patriots are committed to Mack Jones as their starter in, So the background here, pro football talk reported that the Patriots were shopping, Mac Jones.

My friend Chad Graff of the Athletic had a good story today saying teams checked in. Yeah. And the Patriots considered other QB, other options at quarterback during this offseason, according to a source that's from Chad Graff of the Athletic. Tom Curran of NBC Sports. Earlier this offseason said that, you know, Bill Belichick was kind of agitated that Mac Jones went outside the Patriots bubble, the Patriots organization for coaching advice on the offense.

You know, he mentioned Brian Hoyer was kind of the guy who spoke up and said, hey, this isn't really working out with Patricia and Joe Judge. And Brian Hoyer was eventually cut. The Patriots, four straight years without a playoff win, 25 and 25 with one playoff appearance in three seasons post-Tom Brady. They bring in Bill O'Brien this offseason. but are we sure, nor Princiotti,

that Mack Jones is going to be their starting quarterback in 2023, or could this be sort of a wildcard team that does something nuts in the weeks and months ahead? Yeah, I think Mack Jones is their starter in 2023. I think there's a little bit, I'm not accusing you of this, shield, but I think there's a little bit of a false equivalence thing going on here where there's an idea that, like, Bill Belichick is mad at Mac Jones, equals Mac Jones is not starting quarterback of New England Patriots.

Bill Belichick is mad at starting quarterback of New England Patriots is like a thing we've done a lot. That has been the situation for a lot of the last 20 years. That is like not a thing that historically has proven to get in the way of the Patriots' success as a team. And in particular with Bill O'Brien coming in there, those two can be. frosty and like barely talk to each other. So I certainly buy and there's been a lot of really good reporting from guys like Tom Curran, who's super plugged in around there about the rift tension, whatever word we want to use stemming from Jones consulting people on the outside when everything was so difficult last year within their offense and with the, you know, Matt Patricia Joe, Judge,

two-headed monster offensive coordinator situation there. I think I get why that would bother Belichick. I think that's probably one of the more embarrassing situations that he's put himself in over the course of his extremely illustrious career, right? Like that was his doing from the very beginning of. it. Basically, no one in the league could understand why it was happening. And it went really, really, really badly. And then in this organization that, you know, considers everybody's sort of buying in and doing their job and not speaking out and, you know, just keeping everything internal, players started to speak out about it. And I think that really ends up going on Belichick's

shoulders as a huge mistake. So I'm sure he's licking his wounds from that a little bit. And it's, it's a sensitive thing when the quarterback is saying you and by extension, you know, the coaches who developed under you, the potential best coach of all time, you're not good enough. You're not giving me the answers. I need to seek outside counsel to help me get better because you're certainly not helping me do that. Like, that's a tough situation. I, I just don't think that it's going to get in the way of whatever they're going to do next year because I think the relationship between Mack Jones and Bill O'Brien is going to be the one that really defines how he's feeling, how he's feeling within the offense, the type of learning that he's doing on a regular basis there. And then also because that organization has a history of complicated relationships between coach and quarterback.

And it hasn't stopped him yet. So I think it's going to be fine. But I do think that there's real tension there. I mean, we've seen a very clear difference this year relative to last year of how Bill Belichick has answered questions about who their starting quarterback is. Last year, it was all, Mac has gotten so much better. We're so proud of Mac. Mac's doing all this stuff. And this year, it's, you know, everybody gets a chance to compete.

Yeah. Everybody gets a chance to play. And to me, what that means. is just that Bill's a little petty. It doesn't mean that Mac's not the starter. They're out of other options at this point, right? Unless they're going to like wake up one morning and really extend themselves to swing a deal for Lamar.

But there's a lot of reporting saying they're not interested in doing that. So it's Mac. It's got to be Mac. But Bill's just not making it easy. Your points are all good. I'm a little less sure. I would like I, I'm not saying something on predictable is going to happen.

but if a quarterback starts to slip in the draft, or if the Raiders are thinking, hey, we're going to get a guy at seven, and they don't get a quarterback, and then they call, you know, Bill again in May and say, hey, you know, just wondering, has anything changed with Mack Jones? We'll sweeten our deal a little bit with,

I don't know. Again, it's not the most likely scenario, but this is all of a sudden, like one of the most sort of unsettled organizations in the NFL when you look at it, ownership is not happy with Belichick. Belichick is not happy with the quarterback. The quarterback's not happy with Belichick.

You look at the roster. It's not a great roster. It's been three years of mediocre play. Belichick's chasing this record. They did not look like a Belichick coached team last year. If you watch them week in and week out, making mental mistakes, penalties, whatever the case may be. They were not a good, well-coached team last year. And so to me, they're just like, they're not going to be a great team or a terrible team.

They're going to be in the middle, but they're a very interesting team because, at some point, something's going to happen with somebody, like you said, I don't know who. They're used to operating sort of in this state of chaos where, yeah, everyone doesn't need to be best friends for the franchise to be good. But that was easier when you had Tom Brady at quarterback and you were winning 12, 13 games every year. It's a little bit harder when the team is mediocre. So you're always trying to, you know, there's always like a couple surprises leading up to

the draft or after the draft or during the draft. And so part of this exercise was trying to identify what could potentially theoretically be one of those, and I just felt like the Patriots kept popping up in my mind as a team that could do something unpredictable, since we never really know exactly what they're thinking or what they're going to do. And they are opportunistic. My view that this is, that Mac is the starter and there's really not that much that they can do about it, even if Bill would, in theory like to, is based largely on an assumption that nothing is going to present itself. an opportunity in trying to make a deal for Lamar has already presented itself and they've

declined. Now, I suppose that could change. But if they're not buying on that, I just have a hard time thinking that something better is going to show up for them. Now, that is not to say, though, that, you know, because you make a really good point. If something weird happened, they would certainly take advantage of that because then it flips the other way, right? And goes, no, the tension is real. And if there were a true way that they could get better and not hamstring themselves even more than they have, I would not be, you know, they always take advantage of stuff like that. I just don't think that they're really going to get a clear chance to. And I do think that Bill is in such a weakened position at this point that risk taking is dangerous.

And Mack did not play well last year. I hang a lot of that on the offense and on the coaching, but he still looks with Bill O'Brien in there like a better option than anything that I think is going to pop up for them in the next month. Yeah, it's probably true. I mean, as a rookie, his rookie season is probably underrated at this point. He played well. He showed promise.

He made tough throws. Everything was a disaster last year, not all his fault. maybe it flips a little bit this year. Again, they're sort of a low ceiling, highish floor type team. It just depends where on that range they fall. All right. Five lie detector topics. Santa Jalen Hertz breaking. What a show. What a ringer NFL episode. Nora Prenciotti and I will be back later this week. We'll do five more topics. And who knows? Maybe something will happen during that show that we'll get to talk about. Thank you to Nora for joining me. Thank you, Cliff Augustine for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal. We will talk to you soon on the Ringler NFL show.