The Ringer NFL Show - Jets or Lions in the Playoffs? Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts for MVP? Take Your Pick! | The Scramble

Episode Date: December 15, 2022

Sheil is joined by The Ringer’s Nora Princiotti to select the most likely outcome for four scenarios. They start by sharing whether they believe the Jets or Lions are more likely to make the playoffs (2:00). Then they discuss whether the Bucs or Vikings have a better chance to make the NFC championship (8:00) and wonder if Mac Jones or Daniel Jones will win their first playoff game (17:00). Finally, they close the show by breaking down the cases for Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts to win MVP (23:00) and answer some mailbag questions (35:00). Do you have a question for Sheil? Email [e-mail] for a chance to have your question answered on the show. Host: Sheil Kapadia Guest: Nora Princiotti Associate Producer: Mike Wargon Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The time has come to get ready for the 2022 World Cup. And what better way to prepare than by revisiting the World Cup's most amazing goals? I'm Brian Phillips. I'm making a podcast about the history of the men's World Cup, told through the stories of 22 iconic goals. The show's called 22 goals. It's out now on the Ringer Podcast Network, and we're having so much fun. Welcome to The Scramble. I'm Sheal Capade, coming to you on the Ringer NFL feed every Thursday with a guest. And today, excited to have on my wonderful colleague at The Ringer.

She's the only person who answers an email when I'm telling her what we're talking with delightful. I mean, you've got to love having someone like that on the podcast. You know, she's excited to be on Nora Prinziati. Thank you for joining us. Once again, a repeat guest. Sheal, thank you. It really is delightful. This time, last time, anytime.

Love the Scramble. there you go. You can obviously listen to Nora on Sunday nights. You can listen to the island on Wednesday. We can plug probably 30 other things, right? What else? Every single album. Yes. Got its own feed. A lot of good stuff there. Occasionally write some stuff for the ringer.com. Great website. That's what I got right now. We got a new episode of the island up the other day with Danny Highfits. That was fun. And we're going to be potting just all the time coming at you all the time there's saturday games now uh tons of good stuff coming playoffs coming up every single album of course my wife's favorite uh ringer podcast not any of the

ones that i'm on uh that is her favorite ringer podcast which uh i understand i'm pretty sure pretty soon it will be my daughter's uh favorite podcast as well all right what fills me football here's what we're doing we're playing a game called take your pick it's you know we've done similar ideas earlier this year on The Scramble. It's very simple. I got four questions on throwing your way. We're looking ahead to the rest of the season, to the playoffs, and you're going to take your pick, which one is more likely to happen, which take do you agree with more? No, we're just going to get into it. That's why. It's a way to kind of hit on a bunch of topics around the league, including the games this weekend in week 15. Week 15, that's music to my ears.

Week 15. Wild. How the time flies. There you go. All right. Let's get started. Number one, It's a game this weekend. Take your pick, Nora Princiotti. The Lions make the playoffs or the Jets make the playoffs. Of course, these two teams are facing off this weekend at MetLife Stadium. I believe the Lions are one-point favorites in this game. Very tight, very close game. Both teams fighting for a playoff berth.

Who do you think has the better chance? So I'm going with the Lions. And that is kind of a take. based off this game that is going to be taking place in MetLife on Sunday. Because the Lions, on the strength of that game, I think they can pretty easily win it, given the health situation that the Jets are in. We don't know if Mike White is playing that game. Still nursing that ribs injury was limited in practice yesterday.

Don't think that situation's looking good. And if Mike White doesn't go, it's going to be Zach Wilson in there. And we saw how that was trending when he got. I don't see any reason why a couple of weeks off, let the rest collect a little bit, is going to do anything there. And then that matchup between the Jets D and the Lions offense, which would be if the Jets were going to win that game, right? They would probably win it on defense, particularly if Mike White wouldn't be able to go. Well, might not have Quinn and Williams in there. He's nursing the calf.

That Lions run game, really dynamic, really multiple. You worry about how that injury impacts their ability. to slow them down when Detroit's running the ball. And the other thing is that, okay, without Quinn and Williams, who's the greatest strength the Jets have defensively? Sauce Gardner. But Sauce Gardner generally doesn't travel. And this is a lion's offense that with what Ben Johnson is doing right now,

Amun Ross St. Brown is moving all over the place, doing all sorts of different things. James and Williams is in the mix. This is a, this is an offense that can beat you, with its number two, number three. And I really like that matchup against this Jets defense that I think super highly of, but given who they're facing, given the health of the team,

I think the Lions are winning on Sunday. And if they do that, the rest of the schedule is pretty easy. They can win out. If they win this Jets game, they've got Panthers, Bears, Packers. If they win out,

they win all four of those games, they've got a 91% chance to make the playoffs, per 538 just based on what other teams are likely to do. So the Jets game is really the hurdle, and I think they can win it. So I'm going with Detroit. Yeah, right now, the Lions are ninth in the NFC playoff picture.

They are six and seven. You laid out their remaining schedule there. They're kind of battling with the commanders, the Giants, and the Seahawks. I like to look at the betting odds for all right, what are the percentages? You can look at the implied odds. The Lions are at 27%. right now to make the playoffs. But you said it. If they win this week, that's going to go way up. And then the Jets are ninth in the AFC. They're seven and six. They're in the mix with the

Dolphins, Patriots, and Chargers. A couple of teams in there who you're probably like, I don't want to pick any of these teams in the AFC. I'm kind of worried about all these teams. Their remaining schedule is Lions, Jaguars, at Seahawks, and at Dolphins. Their implied odds are 37%. So they've got a slightly better chance than the Lions. nailed it with this game. Like, it's hard to pick. I turn in my picks column on Wednesday night, and I'm like, is Mike White playing or is Mike White not playing? You know, he's, he's limited in practice, but you know, he's like, he was taking the hospital after the game, but he's like gutting it out during the game. Like, what is going, you know, what is going on here? So,

it makes you have two minds about it because he's clearly tough his nails, but also he took a beating. Yeah. So he's been through. We know that he, you know, he wants to play and, and he's got the for it, but geez. Yeah, I mean, he's probably looking at this, like, what an opportunity that he never thought he was going to get. And regardless of the pain, I mean, I don't understand how these guys play when they're in the pain that they're in. But they're obviously wired a little bit different than me.

You know, I stub my toe over here on the desk and I'm on, I'm on IR for a little while. So they're definitely wired different than me. That matchup between the Jets defensive line and the Lions offensive line could be awesome. I mean, especially if Quinn and Williams plays, I think he's 50-50 to play with that cap injury. But that is just strength on strength. And really, whoever wins that matchup, I think definitely could win that game. I thought Jared Gough last week against the Vikings, it really stood out. I mean, he had a clean pocket.

It wasn't quite playing seven on seven. But if you look at every play he made, he was just kind of sitting back there. And we've seen when he has the ability to do that, he can carve defenses up. When he doesn't have the ability to do that when he's getting pressured, then all of a sudden, he's going to turn into a different guy. So I'm going to go against the grain. We're going to disagree here. I've been in on the Jets for a couple weeks.

I don't want to give up on them yet. I believe in that defense. I don't really love the other AFC teams, but I would feel a lot better about this if I knew Mike White was healthy and going to play. If Zach Wilson plays, I mean, that thing's going to go one way or the other. I love Robert Sala.

Like every week he's asked is the plan still to go back to Zach Wilson. And he says, yes, it's going to be like week. 18 and they're going to yeah the plan is still I know this our last game so if Wilson plays I would be very nervous about that I would think the line would change from what it is now the the lions being one point favorites now so we'll say that sounds right to me yep yep yeah okay all right question number to take your pick Kirk cousins plays in the NFC championship game or tom Brady plays in the nfc championship game for some background here if you're

look at it. The question is about playing the NFC championship game, but if you just look at Super Bowl odds, the Vikings and the Bucks have the same Super Bowl odds right now. They're both tied for fourth behind the Eagles, Cowboys, and the 49er. So which one could you say that, you know, you're not saying that one of these is going to happen, but which one do you think would be more likely? So, and, you know, there's a lot of ways you can look at it where Tampa, they're 13th in DVOA right now. Minnesota's 21st, right? Like, we think of the Vikings as this team with this great record. Statistically, that's not a great team

in a number of different ways. Here is my issue. The Bucks, if they make the playoffs, they're going to do it on the strength of the winning their division, right? That almost certainly locks them into the four seed because they would have the worst record of a division winner.

That almost certainly means that they're playing the Dallas Cowboys. That's that four or five game. I don't think this Bucks team can win that game. I just don't think that they can do it. I don't think against that Dallas defense that's been really, really good. I just don't think that they have the firepower, particularly with how poorly coached, I think that team is. I just don't think that they can do it. Often, you know, if I'm looking for an edge against this Cowboys team that has a lot of talent, I'm looking for it

on a coaching staff. And that is something that I think has gone so abysmally wrong in Tampa this season that I just don't like that game for them. So I have to go with Minnesota. because if they keep the two seed, which they're virtually locked into, right now they're playing the Giants. Now, maybe that doesn't hold, right? And if the lions end up sneaking into that seven seed, that's, we just saw what that looks like, right?

Like, that could end up being a frisky team. Still, that might not happen. You know, I like your, you're talking me into the Jets a little bit. Maybe defensively they have enough where they can get after Jared Gough and we know what happens when that happens. and the lions don't end up making it. And then you're talking about one of those sort of bottom tier

NFC East teams, maybe the Giants, maybe the commanders that they're playing. And then obviously you got to win another game. But my issue here is that I just don't see a path for the bucks to get out of the first round. So I got to go with Kurt Cousins based on that, even though we're not exactly talking about a super impressive team here.

Yeah. I mean, there I had, this stat earlier this week. Since 2000, there have been 103 NFL teams that have 10 wins at this point in the season, and the Vikings are the only one that has a negative point differential out of 103. So this is like, it's not inaccurate to say this is like the worst 10 win team through 14 weeks in the last, what, 23 years. So I think you nailed it with the paths the two teams have to take. I mean, it really, I think we could easily talk ourselves into if the matchups were different. that all right, you know, you go with the bucks.

Like if the bucks were playing the Giants or the commanders or something in the first round, then maybe you lean that way. But the Vikings are 10 and 3. They're the two seed. They're probably going to remain the two seed. And that means two home playoff games, which is a pretty big deal, especially when the first one could be against the Giants, against the commanders. When you were just going through the matchups, I'm like, oh, my gosh, Vikings Lions has so much more juice than like, I'm sorry, Vikings lions has more juice than Vikings, Giants or Vikings Commanders.

So we want the lines to get in for that first wildcard weekend. But it would be one of those teams. And then divisional round, it would probably be the 49ers, which the 40, I mean, who knows what to make of the 49ers? You know, the 49ers would probably be, would be favored in that game if you just look at kind of the numbers right now. But could they have like a Justin Jefferson just goes off for 160 yards in that game and, you know, polishes off this amazing season that he's had and win.

there. So I chose the Vikings too. I mean, I just hate this Bucks team. I have no faith in them. They're miserable. They're maybe the worst watch in the NFL. Like, I can't stand on a Monday when I'm like, all right, let's see what the Bucks did this weekend or when they're on national TV. I mean, everyone looks like what I forget what team, what NBA team where they all put their hands in and they did one, two, three, Cancun because they were just like, we're done with this season. Let's get. They are the one, two, three, Cancun team of this season. I don't think they have any I don't think they believe they're playing in the NFC championship game. And so even if they make it, if they hold on to the division, like you said, they'd have to face Dallas in the first round.

They'd probably be underdogs there. And then they have to go to Philly to take on the Eagles in the divisional round. So I feel like the Vikings path is easier even if they might be sort of evenly matched teams. The other thing is that, and I agree with you there. I, you know, if this were a Vikings versus Bucks head-to-head, you know, neutral field, I really have trouble with that because Danny Haifitz and I actually got into it a little bit on the island about this. Brady's not playing that badly. Brady's playing okay. It's not, you know, it's, it's not Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady out there. That's not at all what I'm saying. But Brady is

playing okay. The problem is they don't have a Justin Jefferson. There's no, there is no easy button. And there is no like, you know what, here's our guy who we can sort of count on to get his in any given game, even against top competition. Like, here's our guy. I think in the playoffs, that really matters. And then the other thing is that, you know, O'Connell's been pretty good this season, not like spectacular. I think mostly defensively is where I have issues with the Vikings. I trust him so much more than this Bucks coaching stuff. They're so, like, Bulls is so conservative.

The way that Leftwich is running the offense. And I don't want to let Brady off the hook for that entirely. because we're always so quick to say it's the coordinator, it's the head coach. We are talking about a quarterback who has an extreme amount of ownership of what they're doing, what they're running, who's getting snaps. Like he's involved in all of that. So this is me sort of calling myself out for sometimes blaming coaching when the quarterback is obviously very, very, very involved in how they do things.

But they leave so many points on the table and they've done it all season. And there's no reason to expect them to just like, switch gears in the playoffs, right? So that's the other thing is that I might give the quarterback edge to the bucks if it were just like a head-to-head here. But coaching certainly, I would go to the Vikings. So that combined with the much, much easier path. Yeah, I'm with you.

I think it's the Vikings. Yeah, their game management has been horrible. My take on Brady is that, like, he can still make sort of the elite high-level throws. Like, anytime you watch a Brady game this year, they're like five of those where you're like, oh, he's still got it. earlier in the season, I was more on the side of it's the supporting cast and he still got it. I feel like in recent weeks, his play has dipped a little bit over the last three or four weeks, maybe he's missing more throws.

And he's just so like, for him to succeed, you kind of need to have like one of the three best offensive lines in the NFL. I think if you had that, he could be putting up monster numbers. But he's so like, if there's any sign of pressure, it's just he's dirting the ball and live to see another down. And so it's like a hard way to play now in the NFL. And we see all these other quarterbacks and there's pressure and they're running around and they're scrambling and they're making plays out of structure. Like to play the way he was playing, you need great protection.

And then yeah, he can carve you up. But I feel like it's been so glaring this year with those offensive line injuries. The offensive line isn't good. And it's just kind of like, all right, nothing's going to work here because he's not even going to come close to standing in there and taking a hit. You can tell he knows they don't have it too. Yes. He looks a lot like he did in New England. in 2019 to me, which is in some ways instructive, right?

Because we know what happened after that. We know that he wasn't, it wasn't over. But there's a look to Brady when he doesn't believe that, you know, when it's sort of pointless, right? When there's nothing that the team around him can accomplish that he hasn't accomplished before. He's obviously an incredibly competitive guy he wants to win. But he's also, you know, he's got eyes.

He knows what's going on around him. Yeah. And I do think you can tell that he just does not think that they have it. 100%. I agree. Yeah, him on the sideline. He's just staring into space there. Well, we have a Brady question in the mailbag segment later

where we'll look ahead a little bit past his reign here in Tampa. All right. Question number three, take your pick. Matt Jones wins a playoff game or Daniel Jones wins a playoff game. Mac or Daniel, the Long Loss Brothers, which one has a better chance to win a playoff game? What do you think? They seem very different. Is that to me, like, it didn't even occur to me that they have the same last name.

I was just like, oh, this is the sort of derpy white quarterback category. Got it. So, this one is, I'm struggling with this one because the Patriots probably have to play the Chiefs if they make the playoffs. Unless something happens, like if Buffalo really falters down the stretch in Kansas City ends up back in the one seed, that is that is the path out of that. but the Patriots have a decent shot at drawing Kansas City if they make the playoffs. And I'm sorry, I'm about to tell you why I think the Patriots are in better shape than the Giants right now, but this Patriots team is not beating the Chiefs. It's a good defense when it's playing a bottom 10 quarterback,

but they are so discombobulated offensively. And I don't think that the way that, I don't think that the way that they play defense, which is a lot of schemed up pressure, are they doing a lot for Matthew Judon, who, by the way, I had a tweet today that I want to talk to you about. I don't think that it holds

against elite competition because you just don't have a lot of individual guys who are going to win. It's just a lot of scheme and it's good. It's sound, but I think that that really stands out

when the strength of competition is low and in the playoffs it's going to be high and particularly if you're drawing Kansas City or even, look, Buffalo, for all that they're struggling, I'm really having a hard time seeing them having a shot in that game. I still think I got to give it to Mac Jones and just say, well, you know, any given Sunday and Belichick could devise some great game plan

because the Giants are just out of steam. Like they're just, I feel bad because I feel like, I feel like they're getting pegged as, oh, they had this hyperinflated record at the beginning of the season, but it was fraudulent. And like maybe that's a little bit true. They are so injured, Sheel. Yeah.

They're going to start this team that blitzes more than anybody else in football is going to start Nick McLeod, Cordale Flot at Corner this week. And it's sort of a do-or-die game against the commanders that they have. Like, it's over, man. I'm sorry. It's such a fun team. Brian Daywell was so impressive. But I just, Cordale Flot. We can't be doing this with Cordell.

Like, it's got a, it's time to call it. I'm calling it. Mac Jones. Cordale Flott, the way you said that, I was like, he would be a good Stephen A name. I don't know if Stephen A has ever uttered the name Cordale Flot, but I could just see him sort of yelling that name on first take. And you did a good job, too. I mean, you said Cordell Platt in a very fun way as well.

Yeah, there was a play last week, Nick McLeod on, you know, Wink Martindale, just throw them out there a one-on-one. Nick McLeod versus A.J. Brown. and it was like an eagle staple play, and they decided to break out this change-up or like instead of A.J. Brown running this deep over route, which they've done all season long. So Nick McLeod's like, all right, I got this.

He starts running that, and then he bends it back the other way. And it's rare that you see a wide receiver that far away from the cornerback who's covering him in Mancovers. So I kind of felt from Nick McLeod in that situation. I have a tough time with this because of what you laid out with the path. You know, it's like the Patriots in Kansas City, I think it's going to look like the Patriots against Buffalo last year in the playoffs.

I think they get killed in that game. They've shown me nothing to think that they would be able to devise some special game plan and they would be able to hang in that game. I think they would get absolutely destroyed in that game. And then the Giants, if they get in, now, right now the Giants have a 50% chance of getting in per football outsiders. The Patriots are about 39%. So obviously a lot can change depending on the outcomes of this weekend's games. but, yeah, Patriots would have to go to Kansas City, most likely,

and the Giants would be going to Minnesota. That's a more winnable game, at least. This Giants team could win a weird game against the Vikings. Yeah, they could come up with something, right? And the Vikings' offensive line has gotten so banged up, and that can really rattle Kirk. And one of the positive surprises down the stretch, I think, for this Giants team has been how the defensive line has come on.

Yes. And, like, Tibado's really turning into a player. They can get pressure. They can get after a play. quarterback. They, I can see them feeling a little pesky, bothering cousins, and they're soundly coached. They stay in games that they shouldn't, right? Like, I like this commanders team.

And they had about six opportunities to, to beat the commanders in that game going on two weeks ago. Now, they didn't win any of those. But they had a shot, which was honestly more than I thought we would be able to say having a secondary that at this point, I think they still had Adori Jackson, like it wasn't quite as bad, but against a skill position group in Washington

that's pretty good and pretty multiple, I didn't, they impressed me in that game. And I don't see all that big of a difference in talent between this commander's team and the Vikings, right? So like, they could hang in a game like that. It's just still, I'm not, I'm not sure if I think they can even really get there. They're trending in the wrong direction, especially offensively.

You just watch the Giants offense and are like, they have no shot. But I'm with you. That pass rush with Tibado with Azizzo Jolari and with Dexter Lawrence and I know Leonard Williams is injured. But if he's healthy, like that is a good four-man pass-rush unit that can really get after some bad offensive line. So we'll see what happens there. I'm going to hesitantly go with Daniel Jones on.

that question. All right. Last one, take your pick. Patrick Mahomes wins MVP or Jalen Hertz wins MVP. Right now this week, Hertz takes over us the betting favorite at minus 160. Mahomes is at plus 190. Do you want me to make the case for both? I've obviously had to do this for the ringers Philly special before so I can give you the case for both. I'm sure you had your own opinions I think there's some silliness going on here. So I want to hear you make the case. Okay. All right.

So the case for Jalen Hertz is, you know, you have the big picture stuff. They have the best record in the NFL. Their second in offensive DVOA. If you look at his numbers, he has 50 completions of 20 plus yards. That's tied for second in the NFL. He has 25 runs of 10 plus yards. That's ninth in the NFL, not ninth among quarterbacks. ninth in the entire NFL,

and he has the fewest turnovers of any starting quarterback. So usually when we look at the guys who don't turn the ball over, they're a little conservative. They don't create those explosive plays. He's created the explosive plays on the best team in the NFC, the team with the best point differential in the NFL. And so you can make the case that it's a favorable situation, but like this is probably the best Eagles offense of my lifetime,

and it's the second best offense in the NFL. So when you're saying like, well, the ceiling could be higher with other guys, it's hard to make the case that it could be that much higher with other guys. All right. So that's the case for Hertz. The case for Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL based on EPA per play, eye test, film watching, whatever metric you want to look at. They have the best offense in the NFL in terms of EPA per drive, DVOA, again, whatever other advanced stats you want to look at. And they're doing this in a season where they traded. Tyree Kill and brought in, you know, he's doing it with the Juju Smith-Schuster's and the

Marquez Valdez Scantlings of the world. So I think Mahomes, I think most people would agree, is just the best football player kind of on planet Earth. So to get to Hertz, you kind of have to go with some of those things. I mentioned for this individual year. All right. What do you got? It's Mahomes. Come on. Let's be serious here. Hertz is having an incredible year. And his development, his development specifically as a passer, is one of the most, it's probably the most impressive transition like that that we've seen from a quarterback since Josh Allen. He's incredibly fun to watch the Eagles offense. I'd rather watch the Eagles offense than the Chiefs offense.

Just because they're so multiple, they're so dynamic, there's so many different ways that they can win a game. I think they're a blast. Mahomes is more, it is the most valuable player award. And I can hear an argument that there are things about Hertz. the way that he elevates their run game, the way that he makes all of the rest of what they do possible, where, yes, there is an extreme amount of value there.

But if we look at both situations and go, okay, which one of these is more about the situation and the offense as a whole, and which one of these is more about just the player who is playing quarterback, it's hard for me to see any answer than the EPA per play leader, Mahomes, who we know is perfectly capable of all of those deep plays, those explosive plays that Hertz has been making. But he's actually undergone this really, really impressive season where he's transitioned away from some of that stuff

because that's what they need to do to win because he doesn't have Tyree Kill anymore. And now I could hear an argument, certainly, that it would just be a lot more exciting for Hertz to win the award. We love shiny, new, that's fun. Yeah. Mahomes should win it.

Because the Eagles' offensive system is good enough that if you take Hertz out of there and put somebody else in, it is certainly not going to be the same. And because of how specific his skill set is, it would be very, very, very different, you know, not just from a he's really, really talented and is playing really well perspective, but he does specific things with his athleticism that enable them to do the rest of what they do. We're still talking about, you know, AJ Brown, one of the best. Offensive Lines. Like Mahomes is doing this with with Juju and MBS. And I just, there's no question on the quarterback versus supporting cast debate with Mahomes. And that's why I think it's him.

I agree. Yeah, I would vote for Mahomes. I mean, the case against Mahomes, and this will probably be the case for most years, unless other, you know, like Josh Allen could certainly have an MVP, caliber year, Joe Burrow could certainly have an MVP, caliber year, maybe Jalen Hertz. Next year, the numbers are even more wild.

I mean, this is his second full year as a starter. But unless you're just bored with like picking Mahomes, it's kind of like Michael Jordan back in the day. And unless you're just like, yeah, yeah, I feel like someone new. Like, I think there's this thought that like Mahomes, this isn't like his, a great year for him given what we've seen from him in the past. But it really is. I mean, that stat about the explosive completions, Mahomes is first.

like he's one of the guys ahead of her. He has 14 more completions of 20 plus yards than any other quarterback in the NFL. It's unbelievable. In the year that they traded Tyree Kill. Yes. Yes.

And, you know, any offensive metric you look at, the chiefs have the best offense in the NFL, even in this coming off a three interception game. And that doesn't matter. We're looking at it at this point in time. And they still do. So, yeah, I'm kind of, I'm kind of confused a little bit,

honestly, by the odds. it feels like a lot, most people, I don't even know who votes on MVP. Is that reporters? Is it all reporters to it? Okay. I feel like Mahomes is probably going to be the person. I feel like most people are probably going to come to the same conclusion that you and I just came to that Hertz has been an incredible story. Hertz is playing great, no doubt about it. But if we're looking at who's the MVP, it's got to be Patrick Mahom. So I wonder if those odds, well, listen, maybe we have some power here at the ringer NFL show. Maybe people listen to this podcast and then by tomorrow, these odds are going to completely shift.

Who knows? So maybe you want to sign on a fan duel today. Here's the end of my stump speech here. Also, I don't care who wins MVP. Either one of them is deserving. But we should appreciate what Mahomes is doing. And not just the fact that he's been able to have this season while still maintaining being first in those explosive play rankings that you mentioned.

like that's incredible. It is very rare to see a player be able to just change his style and change the way that he operates. We're actually very lucky this season because we're seeing it a little bit with Joe Burrow. And Mahomes, it's not so much about how he himself is playing and seeing the field, but it's just the style of the offense. The fact that he is willing to do that, the fact that we don't watch him go through the season and seem like he's forcing it,

that it's working just as well, that the drop-off and efficiency is nil without Tyreek, who is having an incredible season, right? It's not like Tyreek has gone and it's been like, oh, well, you know, I guess he wasn't all everybody cracked him up to be, right? But the fact that Mahomes is just business as usual is maybe the most impressive thing I've ever seen him do in his entire career. Yeah.

I don't know if everybody feels that way, but it is just so unreal that there hasn't been a drop off. And that even arguably he's playing more efficiently than we've ever seen him do before. Most quarterbacks cannot withstand that much change, that much change in how defenses are attacking them. Like, it just doesn't happen. What Mahomes is doing just doesn't happen.

And it's not always, even though he's Patrick Mahomes. He's always going to do silly stuff. But because the, deep passing factor, even though, again, like, he's still doing it. But that's less their supposedly their bread and butter with how they're running the offense now. It might feel slightly less exciting. Don't do that.

It's so exciting. It's so impressive. I just want people to feel that way. Yeah, there's a huge gap. I mean, if you just look at like something like EPA per drive, there's a huge gap between the chiefs and the Eagles who are number two, like the difference between the chiefs and the Eagles at number two would be something like the difference between the Eagles and say the Falcons at number 12.

Like that's the gap between one and two. So it hasn't really been close with the Chiefs and everyone else. Yeah, he's had a remarkable season. I think he will end up winning it. We'll see if those odds just shift week to week or what. All right, let's take a break and we will come back and finish out the show with a mailback. Start the NFL week off right with NFL same game parlay. insurance from Fandul. America's number one sports book. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandul

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All right, we're back on the scramble. Let's get to the mailbag. A reminder, you can email us at the scramble mailbag at gmail.com or just tweet at me if you want to any time during the week. Question number one. We've seen both Josh Allen and Jalen Hertz take very unlikely leaps based on statistical and historical precedent. It's only two examples, but could this change the way we look at young project quarterbacks in the future? Do we give up on them too soon? What should teams learn from their success?

What do you think? Oh, that's a good question. I think the biggest takeaway is that traits matter. Like, athleticism matters, particularly the raising of the floor of what a young quarterback, a young inexperienced quarterback can do when he's got a good amount of running ability. The reason I think it's so significant is because with young quarterbacks developing, we're really talking about time, right? Like, there was a question within the question,

do we give up on them too soon? Well, yes and no, right? Like, yeah, football gives up on tons of players too soon. Also, that's not changing. There's no amount of Josh Allen's and Jalen Hertz's that could come out and have that type of development track that would change the way that teams operate. But it would take an awful lot to get owners to,

to be more patient to get the timeline structures of roster building to, you know, loosen up a little bit. Like, teams have windows and they build in windows. And because of that, young quarterbacks are not going to start getting more and more time. Like, that's not happening. The way that they can get more time is if they're buying it on the field. And if you have some development that you need as a pure passer, the way to buy the time on the field is to be able to impact an opposing defense and to impact the offense that you're working within in a positive way that's different. And the easiest way to do that is by being a threat in the running game and by changing the math of what a defense has to do. And I think that was really, really

significant, especially for Hertz, but also very much so for Alan in being able to get the time to develop and being able to earn those developmental snaps on the field by still

being a threat even when they were not the passers that they are right now. Yeah, no, I think that's well said. A couple things came to mind with this question. One is they might just be the exceptions like Josh Allen, Jalen hurts, you know, it might just be that once in a while someone will come around and this isn't going to be the norm. It doesn't mean every quarterback you

should wait and wait and wait. Sometimes that can be a mistake and you wait for too long. But I think the way to know, and it applies to both these guys, is like if you invest in a young quarterback or you want to know, then surround them with the right pieces. I mean, the bills, they got Josh Allen and then it was like trade for Stefan Diggs. You know, let's make sure we're going to know at the end of the rookie contract, hopefully after two years or at least after three years, do we have the guy or do we not have the guy? And if we don't, you know what, you can move on.

It's not the end of the world. And so you put the guy in position to succeed and see what it looks like. Jalen Hertz, obviously, as the offensive line has A.J. Brown, and there are different scenarios because the bills were all in on Josh Allen. It was like, all right, Josh Allen's the franchise. How do we help him succeed? The Eagles were like, well, we traded Carson Went.

So we don't really have a plan B who's on the roster. okay, Jalen Hertz, I guess he'll play a little. Like, I don't want to say they lucked into it, but they drafted Jalen Hertz to be a cheap backup to Carson Wentz. As recently as what month are we in? December. Yeah, so December to March, what's that? Like nine months ago, they were at least exploring, hey, let's check in on some other quarterbacks.

It wasn't like, let's build around Jalen Hertz. I mean, that'll probably get forgotten here as the Eagles have success, but that's kind of the way it went. But I think either way, especially if you invest in a young quarterback, put him in position to succeed so that you can get a fair evaluation. Like the Sam Darnold thing, you know, just every year, well, he doesn't have this. He doesn't have this. He doesn't have this. And he was never in a great situation. And probably it ended up, well, maybe he's just not that good.

But it was like hard to know. Like those arguments had merit for a while. And so I think if you're going to draft a quarterback early, take whatever resources you have, put them around the quarterback, and then figure out if they're good or if they're not good. All right. question number to our last one in the mailback. Tom Brady.

Does Tom Brady keep playing in 2023? And if so, where do you think he ends up? What do you think? Okay. So first part of the question, I guess I sort of teased this in saying that I think you can see a lot of the 2019 Patriots version of Tom Brady in this year's Brady. He can still, as you said, make those high-level throws,

which to me says that decent odds he, still got it. I don't think he believes in the team around him. I don't think he likes the situation. Obviously, his personal life has been difficult this year. I think a lot of things are going wrong. And I don't think that he's quite got that eye of the tiger right now, but he can still make the throws. So yes, I think he keeps playing in 2023. And I guess before I do this, I should apologize to our boss, the wonderful Bill Simmons. I love working. I love working. for you. You're great.

This job is my absolute favorite. I also apologize to my parents, Patriots fans. I love you. It's my job. Tom Brady should play for the New York Jets. Wow. Yes. The Jets.

He should play for the Jets. He wants to be on the East Coast. He knows New York. He's already got a place here. The Jets are ready to win. The defense is great. they, if Brady, because his contract will void at the end of this year, so he will essentially be a free agent. And he, as opposed to someone like an Aaron Rogers, right, he could go to New York without them having to give up a bunch of trade capital.

Use those high picks because the Jets, you know, the Jets have their first and second round pick. Use those. Keep building your offensive line, maybe. Maybe add another. Like we've seen Garrett Wilson look like a real player in that offense this season, but maybe add another weapon. You've got the tools to do it. And this roster already looks young, solid, exciting. All you need is the quarterback. And here's one.

By the way, by the way, Tom, you get to play your old pal Bill twice a year. Oh, spicy. I love that. Right time zone. Right city. He can, you know, be around his kids as much as he can. and go try to win another Super Bowl. Tom Brady on the Jets in 20203 is a Super Bowl contending team.

And I know for how bad it's looked this year, it's, it's, you kind of go, really? But first of all, I'm not so sure that this Jets team with, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo isn't a, isn't a Super Bowl contender. I'm sorry, Jimmy. We say too many snarky things about Jimmy. It's terrible. He's just the best example for it. But then you're telling me that the Jets can't win a Super Bowl next year with Tom Brady at quarterback.

I just, it's too easy almost. And again, I'm very sorry to everyone who I've heard with this take, but I believe it to be true. I love it. It's a great take. It's so funny I was talking about with Solak on the Monday show that it's just like, I feel like every city has like a writer who's written, hey, should Tom Brady play here in 2023 story?

Like there are a lot of people interested in this. So the Patriots would be a terrible idea to go back to the Patriots. That was one of my takes on Monday. I mean, it's to everything you said. They don't have any of the things that the Jets have. It's also Tom Brady's not taking orders from Matt Patricia. Yeah, right. No, we're not.

We are simply not doing this. Yeah, yeah, I agree. So I was like, that's a bad idea. They don't have the weapons. Their team in sort of disarray. And you're competing with Josh Allen to win the AFC East. You're competing with Mahomes in the AFC. The Jets, however, are much more interesting for the reasons you laid out.

I mean, the offensive line could be pretty good. The run game could be very good. You add one more receiver. All of a sudden, the receiving core is very good. It's a top five defense right now. Robert Salas seems like you'd be a fun guy to play for. I think, you know, if you want to skip out a little bit early on a Friday, I think he'd be like, yeah, that's cool.

You're Tom Brady. We're good here. Yeah, go ahead. Get into Manhattan before the traffic hits here on a Friday. I'll text you tomorrow if we need anything. So that's a good one. My only, yeah, my only hesitation would be like, if winning a Super Bowl is number one,

and I don't know that it is, more that it should be, it's probably part of it, but not all of it. Then I would be steering clear of the AFC. I would just be like, listen, you've got all these got Burrow, Mahomes, Alan, Lamar, whoever, Herbert, whoever else you want to name in the AFC. And in the NFC, I mean, who do you have? You have the Eagles, you have the Cowboys,

of the Niners. It's a much easier path. So I like the Jets. The other names I'll throw out there. There was a column in the New Orleans, nola.com by Jeff Duncan, about Sean Payton potentially going back to New Orleans. We know Sean Payton and Tom Brady share the same agent. Now you're in a place where they've got a good offensive line.

They push all their chips to the middle of the table every year anyway. Like you don't have to convince them to go all in. They'll trade all their draft picks for veterans. you're staying in the NFC, you're staying in the NFC South, a horrible division. Maybe that would be attractive, even though, you know, he's living in Tampa. I don't know how he would feel about living in New Orleans. I love New Orleans, so maybe he would have fun there. And then I want to get your thought on this one with your background covering the Patriots.

Would he be interested in reuniting with a Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas? We know that. Those rumors were out there about him potentially joining the Raiders with Grank. they've got Devante Adams, Renfro, Darren Waller, he's got an offensive coordinator. He knows there. And the last thing with the Raiders is they can, again, trade Derek Carr, get some draft capital,

and still improve their roster. What do you think about Brady maybe in Vegas next year? Yeah, it's certainly worth thinking about because he and McDaniels remains super close, and that's someone who Brady thinks super highly of and who I think, you know, even though he came from that Patriot system and has some ideas about how to run a team that are based in the sort of Belichick strictness way and that ethos, Josh McDaniels is going to let Tom Brady exist and be a starting quarterback in the way that he wants to.

And I think would be happy to do that. The problem, I guess, so there's two things. One, I don't know what the status of this is. now. But historically, he's wanted to stay on Eastern time. And that's been a real thing. Kids are getting older. Obviously, he got divorced,

so there's enough influx in the rest of his life that maybe that's not true anymore. But historically, that's been a real factor. The other thing is that, you know, if I'm moving out west, would my hometown

San Francisco 49ers give me a call? Maybe? Could we have a conversation? because as much as I love Josh McDaniels, I don't want to be in the AFC West. I just don't want to do it. I would much rather, to your point, be like if there's one other team other than the Jets

who have a location advantage, at least from my standpoint, one other team that you could just drop a competent quarterback in there and go, okay, this is a Super Bowl team. It is San Francisco. Again, I think that hinges so much on one,

how are they viewing the situation with Tray Lance, what do they think that their future holds at the quarterback position in general?

And then two, does Brady, you know, does Brady want to move to California? But if I'm going as far as Vegas, it's not,

it's definitely, it's, it's in the conversation because of McDaniels and because that roster is, is talented, even though, you know,

they have, um, some deficiencies on defense that I think he would understand would be a factor, particularly given the offenses that they have to go up against in the division. But I just think if you're going that far, go one state over and see if you

can make it work in the Bay Area because that's more exciting to me. Yeah, the Niners could go in one of like 14 different directions depending on how the rest of this season plays out. So we will see. I think he's going to keep playing. You think he's going to keep playing. We'll see where he's going to play. This will dominate the news cycle. This will be great for NFL content for months. This off-season, long-time listeners, no, I like the off-season more than the end-season. You guys can watch these games. I want to know player movement, trades, free agency. Come on, that stuff's a lot more fun to me. So we will see where Brady goes. All right. Yeah, go ahead. Shiel, before we go, I just wanted to alert you to a tweet posted by Matthew Judon four hours ago.

And I guess he got a message saying that he'd been selected for a PED test and asking him to just, you know, go to the testing area and do it. And he's annoyed by how many that he's gotten asked to take. But he tweets, Dear NFL and NFLPA, leave me the F alone, please. There's no way this is random. And then here's the part that really got me.

I take melatonin to sleep sometimes. The rest is just vibes. Oh, there you go. New vibes guy. He's in the vibes guy club. Come on down, Matthew Judon. Sheal's there. I'm there.

The rest of the ringer staff is there. It's all great stuff. I just wanted to make sure as a newly inducted Vives Club member that you were aware of our brother, Matthew. I hadn't seen that. Thank you for alerting me to it. I think Matthew when his playing days are over, he'll probably be on the ringer NFL feed now with that tweet. I mean, he's going to be ready to go.

He's going to be ready to join the company. Matthew, I know you've got, what, 14, 15 sacks this year. Probably want to play a little bit longer. But after that, it feels. feels like he's on the right track. So thank you for alerting me to that fact. All right, thank you to Nora Prenciotti for joining me. Thank you to Mike Wargon for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ram Gopal. Stay tuned for the Ringer NFL preview show on this feed tomorrow. And then Nora will be back Sunday night with Benny Souls and Stephen Ruiz talking

about week 15 in the NFL. I will talk to everybody next week.