The Ringer NFL Show - Judging College QBs With Warren Sharp, Plus the Most Exciting Prospects With Danny Kelly | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: April 9, 2020

NFL expert Warren Sharp shares his favorite stats and metrics that make a college quarterback standout, explains why Joe Burrow’s NFL fit is so important, breaks down how NFL teams should be using analytics, and discusses the teams that helped themselves the most this offseason (1:20). Then Ringer draft guru Danny Kelly calls in to chat about the most exciting prospects in this year's draft (33:45). Host: Kevin Clark Guest: Warren Sharp and Danny Kelly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelly and welcome to The Ringer Podcast Network. We hope The Ringer can provide you entertainment and companionship during this time. So as always, feel free to check out The Ringer.com, where we're still covering the latest in sports, pop culture, tech, and media. And the Ringer's YouTube channel can provide endless amounts of entertainment. You can find that at YouTube.com slash The Ringer. It's the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark. Got a great show today.

Warren Sharp, analytics guru, consultant for many NFL teams. one of the smartest guys writing with football on the internet and talking about football on podcasts is here. We'll break down the draft, some of the metrics that we should be looking at, really interesting nuggets about Joe Burrow and Tua and Jordan Love and Justin Herbert and some of those guys. And then we'll look ahead to the 2020 season as well and some of the sleeper teams that we should be talking about more. Then we have Danny Kelly to talk about his all fun team, just the guys who are going to be the most fun guys to watch in the field in 2020. So great show. I feel smarter as I have the last couple of weeks.

I've had some really good, we've had some really good guests. And I've been really fired up to learn more about football the last couple of weeks. And it continues today. People who are a lot smarter than me teaching me things I didn't know. So let's start with Warren. All right. Join me first, Warren Sharp, one of the best analytic minds in football, one of the best minds in football, consult for a bunch of different teams.

One of my go-to sources to get smarter about football. And I want to thank you for joining us. Warren, how you doing, buddy? Hey, I'm doing all right. Surviving out here on the East Coast. I know you're out on the West Coast, but we're making by and making it a bye. And happy to join you, love your show, and always enjoy you when I can get on your show to be guys. All right.

So let's talk about the quarterbacks here because this is a, I mean, frankly, I mean, one of the stunning developments over the past, I don't know, two years is that there are more quarterbacks than there are over. open spots at this point. And it seems to me that every couple of years now or every year, there are a crop of NFL ready quarterbacks. And that really didn't exist five, 10, 15 years ago. And the hit rate is higher than it ever has been. And I wanted to talk to you to sort of parse through these elite quarterbacks. And I would say there's only two, Tua and Joe Burrow. And then there's a second level. And we can get into all that and the differences between them. you've done a lot of research on the numbers and what these offenses and the way these guys have played tell us about how to perform in the NFL. What stands out about that, Warren?

One of the things that, you know, I think that we need to be paying close attention to, perhaps more than what we do, is the context in which statistics are earned. And we study those a lot. I study those a lot in the NFL. But in college, too, it's especially important to kind of get that feel for it. And one of the things that I like to do is I think that third downs have a lot of noise. I also think that third downs don't really correlate year over year, especially if a guy's going from system A to a totally new system, you know, in terms of what his production would be. And some quarterbacks tend to perform better on third downs. And that helps their college stats, but it's not really going to help them as much when they get to the NFL, I don't think.

So I like to look at early down, specifically first down. and the context that I'm talking about specifically relates to how often is this quarterback being put in a position where he needs to carry the load. If we look back, there's a couple good guys that have come out over the last few years, I think are interesting case studies. Number one, you know, Patrick Mahomes. He was asked to pass a lot in college. And then Andy Reid, perfect offense, he's asked to pass a lot there. And we see that when the team was trailing, I mean, they would trail by double digits every single playoff game. They're able to rally from behind because he's comfortable passing in those situations.

You have a guy like a Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming. He had one of the lowest pass rates on early downs of any quarterback that has come out in the first round. In fact, it's the lowest since 2015. That offense, the Wyoming offense, they actually ran the ball almost 60% of the time on first. downs in the first half. They were taking the ball out of his hand. I don't like that when I'm evaluating a prospect. I want to see a coordinator who's like, my guy is a first round talent. My guy is great. I'm going to let him pass the ball a lot. And what does he do in those situations? What I uncovered with Joe Burrow specifically is just how impressive his passing has been

on first downs. He actually was asked to pass the ball. 63% of his first downs in the first half last season, which was the second highest pass rate of any quarterback coming out at his class or any of the classes from 2015 through 2019. And it was second only to Patrick Mahomes, who was at a 65.5% pass rate. But the difference was that Joe Burroughs just ultra-impressive numbers when he was passing the ball on those first down plays. He was number one out of 313 quarterbacks that played at least 70. 75% snaps in the first half of games on these first downs since 2014.

So a sample size of 313 of these guys, he was number one in yards per attempt, averaging 13.9. He had the most touchdown passes on these pass plays. He was number one in completion rate at 82%. He had a very low interception rate. And he destroyed every other quarterback coming out, including pass-heavy, pass-oriented to quarterbacks like Mahomes and Jared Gop and Daniel Jones and Josh Rosen, even Tua, like these guys that were passing above 55% on first downs, his efficiency was off the charts better than these guys.

So everybody loves Joe Burrow. There's nothing groundbreaking about that. But I think it's interesting to know that his OC trusted him a ton called a lot of past plays. He took that challenge. He ran with it. He delivered extreme efficiency, the extreme explosiveness, very low turnover rate. All of these things are very good if you're going to be drafting a guy

and an offense in the NFL in 2020 is going to say, can we put the ball in this guy's hands? Can we ask him to drop back and pass the ball on first down? The answer is going to be, yes, you don't have to baby him. You don't have to coddle him. You don't have to build a stronger run game in order to utilize his skill set. He can pass on first down. He can pass in the first half of games.

and he's going to deliver a lot of efficiency. Yeah, and it's interesting because looking at your numbers that you shared with me, there are guys who have pass rate ranks, you know, on first down and they're okay. But then their yards per attempt rank on those throws are bad. The completion percentage is bad. The touchdown percentage is bad. Interception rate is bad. Those guys will be Daniel Jones and Josh Rosen.

And I think that the deeper you go on these numbers, the more interesting they get. Is there a guy that these numbers say we should like more than we're talking about? Maybe like, you know, Jordan Love is 11th in this metric and completion percentage among the top quarterbacks of the last. What is it? Is it six years, seven years? Yeah, six years. Six years. Is Jordan Love someone who stands out or is he kind of in the middle of the pack and we shouldn't pay a ton of attention to him?

Well, I think he was in an interesting situation. I think he does stand out as a being guy who was asked to pass who didn't have a lot of talent around him. him. I actually found more interesting was observing where Justin Herbert fell on this list. And he was a guy who the ball was taken out of his hands a lot. I mean, Oklahoma's offense is designed to be more run heavy. So you're going to have guys like Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield who weren't asked to pass a lot. But when they were passing the football, they were very efficient, right? They ranked two and three in yards per attempt. They both rank top five in completion percentage and touchdown rate and interception rate. You can, you can't. You can't. You can't. You

get a guy like Justin Herbert, he was not asked to pass a lot at Oregon, but his completion rate was second worst of any of these quarterbacks, 18th out of 20, actually third worst. His yards per pass attempt was very poor. And his touchdown rate was fine. His interceptor rate was good. He was very careful with what he was doing, but he really was the type of guy that you would feel confident in putting the ball in his hands early and often in the NFL, at least based on what I saw from him in his last season in Oregon.

So more than being impressed by where Jordan Love fell on this list, let's say, I was kind of, I think it was a little bit of a detractor seeing where Justin Herbert fell on this list. How good knowing this, how good can Joe Barobie as a rookie? It's, I feel so important is the situation a guy goes into and his offensive coach. I really feel like the offense coordinator slash play caller. is linked at the hip with this quarterback and will be for several years and you hope to God that you have a good one

that's going to help lead this guy. There are quarterbacks who can compensate for bad coaching, but you're going to really lower their ceiling. And of course, like a guy like Patrick Mahams, there's quarterback, there's coaches that can elevate them. I feel like, you know, Deshaun Watson, let's say, he could have performed better with better coaching,

let's put it that way, contagious passing situations. But a guy like Joe Burrow, it really depends where it goes, but I think the sky is the limit for him. Just the efficiency that he's been able to deliver, I think year one, he's got a little bit of receiving talent and a play caller that's going to put him in fair positions to succeed. There is really very few things that I would not feel comfortable asking him to do. And of course, a factor I didn't mention is protection.

Now, if quarterback does control some of that protection, the OC actually controls some of it too with when he's asking him to drop back. Are we being careful on first and second down and ask him to throw a lot on third down when the defense is pass rushing? Are we going to ask him to pass the ball on first down when the defense doesn't know if it's going to be a run or pass? So I think he can play a – the coordinator can play a role in that as well. But, yeah, I'm really impressed by these numbers and definitely looking at big things for Joe Burrow, even in his rookie year. on the flip side of the fact that Joe Borough is going to the NFL after putting up these numbers, the play caller is also going to the NFL. And Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers.

I thought that was a great move to go and get him. And, you know, if it's hard, it would have been impossible for the Bengals to do it because Zach Taylor is a play calling head coach and he's not going to give that up and all that. Also, the Bengals are quite frankly just not going to win any auctions for a innovative offensive coordinator like David Tepper and Matt Rule. going to where they're basically they're happy to fund going out and getting a bright young offensive mind. Did you come away from this being impressed with Joe Brady above what you already knew about him? And do you think that this can work on a broad scale in the NFL with Joe Brady?

I think it can. I think that so much of what a, first of all, he had sick talent, right? We know that. We know that part of these numbers baked in is an inherent understanding that Joe Brady was a very creative and intelligent play caller with NFL caliber pieces surrounding Joe Burrow at certain position. So that being said, what he did was still off the charts great. But Joe Brady, I think his game and the philosophies that he has learned through his stops in his coaching career do translate very well into the NFL. And I think the creativity that they have down in Carolina with Matt Ruhlin, Joe Brady,

are going to be fascinating. as we watch these guys develop and work together. You know, one of the things obviously is you want to be able to put the quarterback into good positions and you want to have a quarterback who is going to pass the ball, get a guy who's going to pass the ball on advantageous downs to pass. And one of the things, of course, we've seen in the past,

Teddy Bridgewater, a little bit more reluctant to push the ball down the field, being kind of put into better situations by his coaching staff to not have to pass the ball as often. So it's going to be interesting to see what they do there in Carolina. But absolutely, I think the game and the way that Brady coaches things definitely should have a very quick and measurable impact on how quickly the Panthers are able to reach the ceiling of whatever Teddy Bridgewater is going to give them.

All right. So before we move on to what the NFL is going to look like in 2020, any other nuggets that you came across in your room? research you think we're not focusing enough about in this draft in a couple weeks? Well, one of the things I just want to throw the perspective out there is just the context through which stats are earned. We talked about this with Joe Burrow, but let's pretend we're talking about Jonathan Taylor, okay, that we're running back out of Wisconsin. You can just put on his film, and I'm not the guy to be evaluating talent 12 months out of the year, right?

I'm the guy who's focusing on the NFL. I don't, although I consult with some teams, I'm not forcing them to pick various different guys in this draft. And I'm really doing a lot of deep diving once the draft picks are made as to where I think this team is going to go with the roster that they have assembled in this upcoming season. But a guy like Jonathan Taylor, for example, you can watch his film. You can also do that in concert with looking at his statistics. But if you don't factor in that this is a team, we mentioned that Joe Burrow was passing the, ball on 63% of his first downs in the first half. This Wisconsin team passed the ball on just 35% of their first downs in the first half.

This was a run first team with very limited talent at the other skill positions in terms of receiver. They were very conservative. So defenses are going to be able to predict this team wants to run the ball. They're going to call a lot of early down runs. They're going to call a lot of short yardage runs. And they can play the Wisconsin offense. with the understanding that we just have to go out there and try to stop Jonathan Taylor.

That makes his statistics that he produced more impressive, in my opinion, than a running back who was in a great offense with loads of receiving talent, and the defense was playing a lot of passing situations. On the flip side, another bit of context from a past year was like a guy like Josh Allen. We already mentioned him. But that offensive coordinator, you have a first round talent at quarterback. there aren't many times that a college coach, especially one at Wyoming, is going to be able to coach a first round talent.

And yet what did they do? They went extremely conservative. They ran the ball a ton, despite not really having NFL caliber running backs or an NFL caliber offense blind. They were taking the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. So I'm just, that's an interesting point of context. We just have to realize, you know, statistics, you might earn or produce whatever you're doing, but you have to look at the context through which those stats are earned

and what the coaches are deciding to do and how easy or difficult might it be. And so I try to evaluate guys. It's easy to look at, for me at least, to redraft profiles by some of the greats out there who are adept at writing those and scouting guys on film. It's also easy to look through statistics. But unless you take that level peeling off the onion to understand the context through which these guys were used or through which the stats were produced, reduced, you're really not, you're really doing yourself a disservice.

College football, there's such a diversity of, of talent on the various different teams and strength of schedule that these guys play. And you really have to dig in deeper. So that's one big takeaway. The other takeaway is it translates into the 2020 season, just to mention real quick, is one of the things I'm looking at is you can measure draft capital via the lens of draft points. And one of the things I'm doing is I'm looking at pre-draft as,

we sit Thursday night before the draft starts, what is the draft capital that each team possesses? And then I want to see once that seventh round ends, how much draft capital did they lose or acquire via trades and other things of that nature? Because this is such a weird draft, a different draft. There's so much apprehension in the marketplace. Guys, not sure if their system's going to work. Guys haven't been able to conduct the one-on-wans. Guys haven't been able to bring players into work out. With all this uncertainty, there is opportunity for various different teams that think they've got a good handle on this class to be more aggressive, to acquire more draft capital, to draft more players. And then there might be other teams who aren't really as confident as sure, worried about making mistakes, and they might end up giving up some draft capital. So I want to see the teams that look like they've got an idea as to what they're doing and might get a little bit more aggressive with some moves during the course of the draft.

Yeah, and I think you cannot overstate the role technology will play. Obviously, it's a virtual draft and technology is going to be everything. But I think that how teams view this and whether or not there are teams that get, Adam Schaefter had the report today that there are teams that are even scared to have their IT guy come into their GM's home or their owner's home or whomever because they're afraid of anybody coming in because of social distancing. And, you know, does a team get scared and say, we want to trade back or we don't want as many picks because we don't feel comfortable with the process. I mean, listen, there are teams that are really, really, really, and I would say it's a solid

chunk of teams that are really, really unhappy with the way that this is all going to play out. And is there a team, like you said, who said, you know, we're comfortable in our evaluations, we're comfortable in our technology or comfortable in our ability to do trades and have a system set up where we can dominate the draft. And does a team like that want to get more aggressive because they see an efficiency? I think this is going to be the weirdest draft that we've ever had. You know, I think the 2011 draft was strange in a sense that the lockout was was in place. And teams really, you know, they had what three days to get their playbooks to the rookies.

They couldn't install anything. There's going to be a virtual offseason. And I think that's going to be very strange. But, you know, one of the things I was actually reading about the. 2011 off season earlier today. And everybody said, well, the rookies are going to basically lose a year because they weren't going to get OTAs and rookie mini camps and a full training camp or whatever. And then the first two weeks of the season, Cam Newton, who was the first overall pick

in that draft, put up better numbers than any rookie in the history of football through the first two weeks. He didn't miss a beat. And I think that the narratives about that offseason were pretty wrong. There's going to be differences. It's going to be hard to actually get out and do physical. work, but guys can still run, guys can still throw football alone, whatever. It's not going to be the same as it was in 2011.

But I think that the ability to navigate the next four or five months is a huge competitive edge. I totally agree with you. And the other thing on that, just one little point to add to that, like, as we're talking about the 2020 season, I absolutely believe that the teams that are more aggressive with their willingness to be creative and their. willingness to incorporate data-driven decision-making into their play calling and their decision-making throughout the course of the game are going to have even more of a pronounced

edge this upcoming season than they might have in prior seasons. The uncertainty that this season brings allows certain teams to become, get to a higher level, I think, than they otherwise would be able to. And it's just going to, further emphasize this decision-making and the data-driven approach that certain teams are taking with analytics, I think it's going to just put them on a much firmer footing as we navigate through this upcoming season, especially towards the beginning of that season. And I'm not even talking about like in-game play calling. We're talking about like, what are they installing in the off-season?

How are they structuring the limited workouts that they've got with these guys? What are they looking to do? How are they like all of that make, there are ways. that you can do it really intelligently and ways that you can make a lot of mistakes. And if I'm a coach, I'm trying to study the best ways and talk to some really smart people to find the best ways that I can implement different things in the offseason time that I'll have with these guys. And then I'm keeping my mouth shut. I don't care if reporters you're going to ask me, well, how are you going to approach this? How are you going to approach it? We're not telling

anybody anything. We're going to just do things that we think are in the best interests of our team. and I think there's going to be a wide range of how different teams approach this thing. It's going to be so much fun to see how it unfolds. Yep, I totally agree with you. All right, let's get to the 2020 season and what that looks like because we've already sort of outlined the challenges and where there's going to be inefficiencies. But I'm looking for two groups of teams from you. Number one is teams that went from either bad or mediocre to good,

and then the teams that might might go from good to great we have the chance to go, you know, almost like, listen, I think we all pretty much agree that there's an upper crust of the NFL right now. I think that's probably the chiefs, obviously, the Ravens. I think that the Niners are in there. And, you know, Adam Lefko was on this show last week and said the Saints are in there. I think there's probably some debate about that because they obviously got boat raced by the, by the Minnesota Vikings in the first round. I think that it's a really intriguing season. I think that there's going to be a lot of carryover from last year or two this year because of what we're talking about,

because the veteran teams are going to have an advantage because they sort of know where to be and know what to do and they don't need a June workout or a full training camp to get good. But if we were to circle a couple of improvement teams, let's start from kind of the mediocre teams or bad teams last year. Who has helped themselves the most and you kind of predict for improvement this year of Warren? Well, if you look at a team like the Arizona Cardinals, right, they obviously faced a tough situation implementing a brand new offense.

And if you think back to what they did, even talking about, like talking with their coach, Cliff King's, really about his week one results and week two and how they were how they were making out offensively. He admitted that he made a big mistake by trying to hide his offense too much in the preseason. It was something that like a guy like me, I was studying his personnel grouping frequency in the preseason and could tell that something was not quite right with what he was doing, that he might be hiding it. And then, of course, it was difficult for them to implement it right away. But now you've got Kyler Murray with a year under his belt. The same offensive system is coming back.

They've added pieces, obviously, in DeAndre Hopkins and have a better approach, I think, to their running game. This is a team that I think could be poised for a step up in that very difficult NFC West. And then, you know, I think a team like the Cleveland Browns, I really like the coaching higher. I think Sifansky is going to be in a very good position there. I think they have enough talent. And then they added a couple of key pieces that are going to allow him to do money of the same things he was able to do in Minnesota, which was creativity with personnel grouping deployment, right? They were able to use some 12, some 21.

They were able to get some 11 if they needed to. But just very creative mix of that. And I think it's going to be interesting to watch Sifansky out from under the, umbrella of Mike Zimmer and potentially, you know, kind of the philosophy of run first, run early, run off, and maybe a little bit moving into more intelligent decision making from a play calling perspective. I think he's a fascinating team to watch. So I think those two and then a team that was already decent last year, but I think is in an interesting opportune position this upcoming season would be the Buffalo Bills. obviously you've got Tom Brady leaving that division, but if we want to talk about a couple of teams that maybe snuck into the playoffs last year, who maybe have a better chance to go forward this year from the AFC,

I would probably say Buffalo. Same offense, same quarterback. I know Josh Allen might limit your ceiling, but I think that they were willing to do some interesting things to improve their efficiency mid-season, made some nice wholesale changes to the way that they were calling their offense. And I think that's only going to help them. and I really respect Sean McDermann as a defensive head coach.

Then on the other conference, I think a team like the Philadelphia Eagles, right? Everybody was talking about how this team doesn't deserve to be there. But the first thing about getting to the postseason for the NFC is being able to win your division. And for them, Dallas switching their offensive system, bringing in a new coach, losing a little bit of talent along the way, I think Dallas might be in more difficult of a position heading into a. an off season like this one and coming out the other side. And that gives the Eagles an inherent benefit. They also will be healthier.

They can't be much more injured than they were last year. So if they get some more skill at the wide receiver position through this draft, I think they've got a good chance to not just sneak into the postseason in 2020, but maybe make some noise there. Yes. I generally agree with everything you're saying. I think that the Cardinals, one of the funny things about Bill O'Brien training John Drew Hopkins for nothing to the Cardinals is that the Cardinals are going to put up huge numbers.

And Kyler is going to be a really good quarterback next year. Cliff Kingsbury developed as season went along exactly what you're saying as a really good offensive mind. And I think that if you were going to trade John Drew Hopkins anywhere, Arizona is a bad place to do it. Because there's going to be a lot of egg on Bill O'Brien's face at the end of this year because of the numbers, Hopkins are going to put up that offense. Having said that, I agree with you about Cleveland. I wonder a lot about whether or not, you know, I was on Mina Kimes podcast last week and we were talking about this, but whether or not we were wrong about the roster they put together last year or it was just Freddie Kitchens being a terrible coach. And I think that it's a little bit of both, but I'm also all the years just the idea that Stefanski could instantly improve it and there was roster talent there and there is roster talent there and that Baker can be fixed. I think that those things can happen pretty easily. With Buffalo, I agree with you. Do you think Buffalo can win the

AFC. Yeah, that's the thing. If you're talking about moving into that next level, they certainly have the defense to compete, but do they have the offense to keep pace, right? They have a defense to compete, but can they keep pace offensively? That is a big question. And look, I think that they're making some intelligent decisions along the way. I think the way that this team has been built, it'll be interesting to see what they do

with this year's draft, but I just have been very impressed overall by the last couple of of years of what this team has done. And it really, to be honest, it really just entirely comes down to the way that this offense attempts to execute with Josh Allen at quarterback. You could try to say that it'll have to compete with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, which are two freak level quarterbacks. And Josh Allen, as good as he is and as creative as is when he's trying to run the football, he's nowhere near a freak or as gifted as those guys are. So you're playing with a deck that's not fully stacked compared to those other two guys because quarterback is so important in this day and age.

So I don't know that I would suggest they could come out and win the division, but I definitely think that they could potentially get to a situation where they are battling in the postseason, and maybe, you know, against one of those two teams in the divisional round. And you never know anything could happen in that type of game. But it would be hard to, let's say, beat the Ravens and then beat the Chiefs in route to making the Super Bowl. That would be a very difficult gauntlet for a team like the Bills to get past. I shot to Brandon Bean yesterday for a story that will run on the ringer in a couple of weeks, probably around draft time.

and I can tell you there is no fear whatsoever. Or that was just my sense of it. He didn't say that outright, but he does not seem to be scared of this at-home draft. And I think that, you know, they don't have a first round pick because of this Tobon Diggs trade, but I feel like that's the type of dynamic front office

that's going to really, I don't know if they're going to be aggressive, more aggressive, but I think that they're going to handle themselves fine in two weeks when the draft comes around. I really like Brandon Bean. I think they also have this, realization that they have this window.

They're fortunate to be in this window where Brady is gone, which is coinciding with my quarterback being on a rookie deal. And those two factors, especially when you consider Miami as a team in the division that's rebuilding, I mean, anything you got Belichick, it's not a walk in the park to try to get past New England. They're going to come up with something creative at the quarterback position, I'm sure. And the Jets don't really have anywhere to go, but up from what they were last season, even though they were a seven and nine team. It's not an easy cakewalk for the bills by any stretch of

imagination. But I really believe in Brian Dayball. I thought his play calling was creative, his willingness to change and become more efficient during the course of last season was very impressive. And I think the sky's the limit. Another team that I think could be very strong in this draft you mentioned, well, that I didn't mention, but I know you have some ties there is the Indianapolis Colts. That's a team that. that underwhelmed last season now has a new quarterback in Philip Rivers, totally different position than the bills. They don't have a quarterback on a rookie deal.

But I think Chris Ballard and Frank Wright, two of the best at what they do. And I'm excited to see what they'll now do with Philip Rivers and hopefully a strong draft class that they would bring in. Warren Sharp, thank you for joining us. Next five months are going to be crazy. But wow, it's a very strange time for that. everybody, but it will be very, very strange for the NFL as well.

100% agree, Kevin. Thanks for having me. Hey, it's Bill Simmons. I just wanted to make sure you were listening to podcasts on Spotify. Here's how you do it. First, search for your favorite podcast on Spotify's app. They have a library of over 750,000 pods at this point. So let's say you're searching for the rewatchables or the Dave Chang Show or the ring or NBA show. Once you find them, click on the follow button. That's how you subscribe. Then click on those letters near the top the out that say podcasts. All the pods you're following will pop up separated by episodes, downloads, and shows. Wait, it gets better. On Spotify, you can adjust the speed of the pods to

seven different speeds. Zero.5 times is the slowest. I actually sound drunk at zero point five. You can do zero point eight times, one point two times, which is my favorite. Everyone sounds like they just had a good cup of coffee. And then there's one point five times, two times. And if you're completely insane, three times. Anyway, Spotify is that. App connects directly to many of the best automobiles in the world. It even has a car play feature that's pretty cool. Best of all, it's free. Download Spotify on any device and you're good to go.

Should you be embarrassed that you're not listening to podcasts on Spotify? Well, I don't want to app shame you. But the answer, unfortunately, is yes. Make the move. Listen to podcasts on Spotify. Back to yours. Okay, now it's time to get smarter with Danny Kelly. Danny, how are you, buddy?

I'm doing pretty well, man. How are you hanging in there? there. I'm doing okay. I'm watching some, uh, I'm, I'm watching some more Netflix sports docu-series to simulate having sports in my life. Did you finish the F-1? I did. So I'm a bit of an F-1 nut, so I finished that in like a day. And now, really, and then, and now I'm, I'm watching the Sunderland one, which is also quite good. I was not as good as I told me to watch that. Yeah, it's not as good as the Formula One one one because the Formula One one is just like they have a camera crew with every team and they can just take whatever's dramatic from each race.

And so it's something that, and I talked about this with Julia Lippmann of the Bachelor Party, Bachelor Party pod last week. Like I've told NFL executives with the Formula One thing and they are incredibly intrigued by it. Just the idea of almost doing like hard knocks, but with every team. And they're doing two teams this year. And so I told them about it last March. at the owner's meetings. And they're generally what they say is that NFL coaches would never agree to that level of access.

And at some point, I think it becomes really beneficial to give that sort of access because quite frankly, people care. People who do not like Formula One are texting me about Formula One and being like, I don't know. People who don't like sports are texting me and saying I like Formula One now.

So that's, yeah. TBD, but I think the NFL has thought about how to get more access and deliver it in that kind of way in the last couple of years. All right, we're not here to talk about Netflix docu-series. We're here to talk about your most exciting players in the draft, the All-Fun team. Are we going to call it that? We could call it the first team All-Fun or the All-Fun team. I don't care. Whatever sounds best to you.

How many, do you have a second team all-fun? I mean, I can do one. does his death chart go. All right. Let's start with two linebackers who I like both of these guys. And you can start with your, I would say your number one draft crush if I'm wrong. But go ahead, Danny. He's probably my favorite player in the draft overall.

Isaiah Simmons. I wrote about him this week from Clemson. Very, very extremely versatile player. Linebacker, he's listed as a linebacker, but he kind of played all over the defense for Clemson. he's sort of that Tyrant Matthew, Jack of all trades. But the key with him is he, and this is something that I saw in my mentions,

and I think is a real legitimate concern, is like a lot of these hybrid players that can play like corner, safety, lineback, or do a little of everything, but they end up being like masters of none at all of them and just kind of like blah players. But I think Simmons is unique,

is his ability to be sort of elite at all those different spots, whether he's rushing the pass or blitzing, you know, he can flip his hips in coverage and get right into guy's hip pocket and stay there as a coverage guy. And he's like a big, he's a tall, long guy. He played over the slot mostly this last season. But I think in the NFL, you know, if you get him with a smart defensive coordinator, he can he can move all over the formation, whether he's a safety slot corner, maybe like a will linebacker or whatever. I just think he's really, really talented.

He's got sort of like incredibly long arms that make. him even more dynamic as a player because he like you see with his length he gets his hands up into passing lanes he makes tackles that he has no business making because he just has such long arms like he'll overrun a guy but then still make the tackle just because he's got like an 85 inch wingspan or something like that so yeah he's just a really really fun player to watch and when I was putting this list together I kind of just thought of the guys that as soon as you turn on the tape you're like oh yeah get it like this guy is good and he was i think he's the perfect definition of that as soon as you turn on the tape you're like okay this guy's going to be a star yes um let me ask you what is there a team

that that you say oh my especially in the top 10 where he's obviously going to go is there a team that you're saying oh my god i would have a basketball excuse me a football freak out if i said well i said basketball because he's looking at the word basketball you ever do that totally yeah all right well He's got a basketball body. He's got a basketball body. All right. Yeah. Okay.

So is there a team where you say, okay, this is where I want him to go from a purely football dork perspective. I mean, yeah, absolutely. If I was, if I was choosing it, he would go to the Chargers. I really want to go the Chargers. I think that would probably make the most sense. But having him pair up with Darwin James. Turwin James would just be the most fun thing I could imagine.

I think actually the Cardinals is an interesting one too. They've got Buda Baker. you know, they've got a pretty underrated secondary, I'd say, in terms of that at least their safety position. If he joins that group, that would be pretty fun to me. So, you know, those are the first couple teams that come to mind. But Panthers make a lot of sense for them as well. All right, Patrick Queen. Yeah, Patrick Queen, another really fun player, another guy that just pops off the tape as soon as you turn it on. He's super fast, really fluid athlete, a lot of explosiveness, really good instincts. And so, you know how

when you're watching, and I'm not going to compare him to these two guys quite yet because he's obviously got a long way to go. He's like a one-year starter. So there's a lot of development time. But when you're watching some of these future Hall of Famers like Luke Keekely, Bobby Wagner, the way that they seem to know like where the ball is going even before the place starts and like get like two steps on the offense before the snap essentially, you see flashes of that with Queen. And so to me, he's kind of the definition of a modern linebacker. He's a little bit undersized, but he can run, cover blitz. He can kind of do it all.

He's a little undersized, but that's fine. I think the way he uses his speed is the way that the direction of the NFL is going in terms of, like, it's more important to be able to cover these days and be able to blitz and all that. So he's a, he's an ascending player, I think, flying under the radar a little bit, but he'll probably end up being a first round pick. I agree with that. Is there anybody with Queen where you say, okay, maybe outside the top 10, maybe this is a guy, is a team where he would fit really well?

So I've paired him up with a couple teams during the pre-draft process. The Broncos, I think, you know, could use a guy like him in a Vic Fangio defense. Let's see. Who else have I given him to before? The dolphins. I mean, getting a guy like him in the middle of the defense for the dolphins, I think, could be really huge just because that's like a foundational type player that you can use to build around.

You know, if Brian Flores is anything like Bill Belichick, he'll like to have some versatility in his linebacker. core. Queen is that guy, I think. Absolutely. So those are two teams that jump out to me. All right. Let's stay on defense, Danny.

Yeah. Neville Gallimore, another guy that could be added to the all-name team, I think. And one of Bruce Feldman's freak list alums. Yeah. So, you know, we're both huge fans of that. He is absurdly. Absurdly, absurdly strong. I mean, according to Feldman, he bench presses 500 pounds, squats.

800 pounds. Power cleans 4.05 pounds. So it kind of gives you an idea. Danny, how much can you bench press? In my prime, I was not a very good bench presser. I think like 225 was like where I stuck to. At the very most. I'm not, I wasn't, I wouldn't say I was like a weight room freak. You weren't for a small weight room?

What about you? I don't know. I have, I, I am never done. I don't think I've done a bench press since I was in high school, an actual bench press. I've got so, I'm working out all the time with weights, but they're just like, I've just, I'm just doing, like in the house because I can't do anything else because I can't do my regular fitness routine. So I'm just, I've got a bunch of dumbbells and I'm acting like an idiot.

I like dumbbells, though. It's bad. Yeah, that's a guy. I got two 25 pound dumbbells and that's my, the extent of my workouts every day. I like it. I don't know. man. All right. So yeah, Gallimore.

Tell me about his nickname. I love this. Oh, yeah. So this is something I found out from Dane Bruegler's draft guide. I didn't actually know this until yesterday, but apparently his nickname is the Canadian bulldozer. He was born and raised in Ottawa, in Canada. And I mean, the bulldozer definitely makes sense. He's got like the most explosive first step. And the Canadian makes sense.

You know, put it all together. It makes a lot of sense. Yeah. the way he plays, he just shoots out of his stance into the offensive line. You know, on his tape, he's kind of one of those guys where I think, you know, he has incredible athletic traits. He's got to still kind of put it all together and, you know, start to get more moves consistently and all that. And he wasn't a super great finisher.

So he's probably going to be like a second, maybe early third round or whatever. But I think that the traits are just really fun to watch. I mean, there was times where he was just letting, like, offensive environment were just lunging for clouds of dust because he would swim move or rip past him. And yeah, just watching him when he was really on, he was really, really fun to watch. So he was probably one of my favorite defensive tackles to watch.

Right, give me a DB. Amik Robertson from Louisiana Tech is, I think, probably the most fun corner to watch in this group. He is, I made this comparison on my scouting report. He's like if Steve Smith was a corner. He's just pissed off. for greatness at all times. He's like, you know, got like Little Man syndrome where he just wants to get right up into a

receiver like chest and don't let him go. He's really, really good at press, tough as nails. He basically just antagonizes his opponent on every play as much as possible. He's also really good ball skills. He had 14 interceptions and 34 pass flexions in three seasons. You know, he plays the run really well. He actually kind of reminds me, I comp to him, I think, to Chris Harris in the scouting report, but he reminds me a little bit of Antoine Winfield, the senior.

Just the way he was incredibly, incredibly physical and sticky and coverage, but also could play the run. You know, that gives him the ability, I think, to play in the slot and the pros. That's going to be kind of a projection because he was mostly an outside guy for Louisiana tech, but I think that's, he's got that skill set and the mentality. You know, a lot of corners don't really want to tackle. So I think he's kind of, he's like a bulldog out on the outside. So I like him a lot.

He was really, really fun to watch. Brian Flores said that Antoine Winfield Sr. was his favorite defensive back of all time. Oh, yeah. I can see that for sure, man. He was just one of those really fun players. I studied up a little bit on him because he was for like a few weeks of Seattle Seahawk. I think they ended up cutting him after trading camp, unfortunately.

Or he retired, you know, which whatever. But super, super fun player. like the definition of a physical slot corner. All right. Keep going. Mackay Beckton, the offensive tackle moving over to the offensive side. Yeah, this is my guy.

Yeah. He is, I mean, for starters, obviously, he's just a massive, massive human being who dwarfs everyone around him. And there's reps on tape.

The way that the Louisville kind of would do their quick passing game, he wouldn't have to necessarily, you know, go into a normal pass set and try and hold guy for try to hold a guy at bay for a few seconds they would do like a quick game and he would literally and i'm not even kidding like literally throw past rushers like past the pocket he would just grab them and throw him and then every once in a while for a good measure he'd jump on jump on top of of him like he was coming off the high rope you know in wrestling or something yeah he's just

physically overpowering physically dominant huge huge massive human being i mean he's still got I think probably going to have to like refine all his footwork and his technique. You know, he didn't do a lot of like real pass pro reps in college. But I think he's got the athleticism, the size, obviously the length to be a really good player. And I think he's going to be a top 10 pick. I mean, it seems like. Yeah, I was going to ask. The NFL, you know, is going to look at his skill set, his athleticism, his size, all that, and say, okay, we can turn this guy into a technician too.

And he's just like, like I said, you turn on the tape and you're like, oh, my God, this guy dominates, especially later in the season. He's been kind of an ascending player for them. So, yeah, he's, he's awesome. How much do you think his combine numbers helped him? What would, obviously it helped him, but what was the jump from pre-combine to post-combine and just getting him on the radar as an elite prospect instead of a good prospect? I think it solidified him, if anything. I want to say before even the combine, he was, being mentioned as like a top five pick. You know, he,

like people were connecting him with the giants already. Um, so I think what it did was solidify him as, as a legitimate top 10 pick. Um, people are like, oh my God. Like this guy is rare as an athlete.

And that rarity, like the planet theory type thing, someone's going to take, someone's going to take a chance on him really on in the draft. And, um, I can't wait to see what is. He's a,

he's a left tackle too. Like, he's legitimately a left tackle. Not just like a guy that, you know, because a lot of times you see these big players, they plug them in at right tackle or at guard. But he's got, I think, the ability to be a left tackle in the league.

I am so excited that you just reminded me of the phrase planet theory. Yeah. George Young, former Giants general manager. Yeah, enlightened the, enlightened listeners, I should say, on what that is. Oh, the planet theory is that there are not many people. It's basically there are not many people like that on the planet. Right. Right.

So you're looking at, when you're looking at Beckton, you're thinking, this is a rare athlete. Yeah, exactly. And you have to take chances on those guys because you can't find a guy of that makeup later in the draft. So typically planet theory is applied to like defensive alignment, I think,

but it definitely fits him as well. I believe in Domic and Sue was a big planet theory guy when he was coming out. Yeah, just strong. That's someone where you just watch him when you go, oh, wow, he's better than everybody else. Exactly. All right.

Next. Yeah, so moving to the offensive skill positions, one guy to really watch. And he was not used super heavily at Memphis, but Antonio Gibson, who is a hybrid receiver slash running back for that team. He totaled 38 receptions and 33. I love this. I love hybrid wide receiver running backs. It almost never happens. Oh, my God.

I'm in heaven. Keep going. Anyways, he, so he touched the ball 71 times in his, in last season, 2019. and he turned those 71 touches into 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is the definition of highly efficient playmaker. Really, really elusive, breaks tackles. There's just some incredible plays where he looks like he's gotten, you know, wrapped up and he emerges out of it and keeps going.

He's got some skills as a receiver too, so I don't really know exactly how the NFL is going to see him. I'm guessing for background, he was the running back. the Senior Bowl officially, and then he was a receiver designation at the combine. So I think the NFL really doesn't know how they want him to be in the NFL. I think they're kind of like playing it out. And he's probably going to be like a third or fourth or fifth round pick probably just based on his rawness and he wasn't used a ton.

But remember, I mean, he was playing behind Doreau Henderson and Tony Pollard, who are both, you know, making waves in the NFL. Henderson is going to, I think, this year. Tony Pollard did last year a little bit with the Cowboys. They're both obviously very talented players. So he was playing behind some really good guys, good players. And so that could have been the reason they sort of limited his touches until this season. So anyhow, he is a very interesting player.

He's 6 foot 228, so he has the physical makeup of a running back. But I could see a team kind of wanting him to be sort of like a Devo Samuel light type player where you can use them on end-or-rounds. You can use them on screens. Every once in a while, he can go deep. And he showed that his ability to go deep. But, yeah, he's going to be kind of like a super-sized gadget player at the NFL level, I think. And that'll be kind of fun to watch.

All right. This next guy you compare to sort of reminiscent, you say, of Percy Harvard in the open field. So I got to know more about this guy. Yeah. Lynn Bowden, Jr. from Kentucky, another player who just has a chip on his shoulder. I mean, he is, he's the heart, like, he plays so hard. It's so much fun to watch. He just goes all out.

He is a slot receiver who was converted to a quarterback. He's a former high school quarterback. So Kentucky went with him at quarterback because of injury in 2019. And so he sort of just, you know, sacrificed for the team, became the quarterback. He's technically more of like a slot receiver, but did a lot of wildcat stuff. he has really, really interesting traits in terms of his explosion. He's got like gyroscopic balance. Kind of reminds you a little bit of like golden tape,

how you can spin away from tackles really easily and keep going. He's shown some flashes as a receiver downfield. You know, he's still pretty raw. And I think that's why he's probably going to be like a fourth round pick, third round pick. But he did show flashes as like a guy who can kind of make catches towards a sideline, guy who can get in behind the defense in the red zone, and all that. But like I said, Percy Harvin is the guy who came to mind in his ability to make guys miss in the open field, his ability to destroy pursuit angles from defenders. He's a good returner. He's just an all-around playmaker. And I love this guy. I think I'm a little bit higher on him. He's going to be in my top 100 before it's all said and done. But man, I just turned on the tape and I was like, I couldn't stop watching. It was just so much fun to watch this guy. So I think if a team can get creative with him,

Yeah, I was going to say, we want him on a, obviously the Saints are spoken for here. We want him on a Belichick type team where he's not going to be afraid to use him in a bunch of different spots. Yeah, absolutely. And I know a lot of people are throwing around the Randall Cobb comp in terms of the way the Packers use Cobb early on in his career. And I like that. And the Kentucky part. Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, throw him into the backfield and use that as a mismatch creator.

Put him in the slot. give him ender rounds, all that stuff. I think he's just a playmaker with the ball on his hands. And like I said, he's just, he is like, again, like he's kind of like Steve Smith, just really plays angry and I love it. So he's a lot of fun. All right. You have three running backs left here.

This is a running back heavy list. It is a lot of fun running backs. All right. Start. For starters, running back is probably the most fun position to watch. So that was probably a little bit of a. bias on this. No, of course. I get that on this. It gets, it gets the, the further down in football you go, the more fun, a great running back looks. Like in the NFL, it's like, it can be really, really fun.

We've learned that. College, it can be incredible. A good running back in high school, I mean, they get like, you know, it's like, you know, take your Derek Henry's just pencilmen for 330 yards. And then, and then like under high school, that's where it's just, that's, that's might be the most fun thing. When you've got like a 13-year-old who's just running for an 80-yard touchdown every time he touches the ball, that's just pure uncut football. Yeah, that's like the raw foundation of football is like, you can't tackle me. I'm going into the end zone and you try and stop me. So, yeah. For starters, I'll go with a guy who's a little bit more well-known, Clyde Edwards-Aler from LSU.

He's just really, really crafty with the ball in his hands, whether he's using, whether he's out like catching passes or his. receiver or getting a run out of the backfield. He's just really, really elusive, laterally. It reminds me the way he runs of Maurice Jones Drew, just like very shifty. His tape. Let me stop you right there. Did you see Maurice Jones Drew's mock draft? I don't know.

I don't think so. I recommend you look at it. Give me the rundown. I'm looking at it right now. I'm going to find it here. All right. He has, and we love MJD. We love MJD.

Absolutely. Having said that, he has Justin Herbert number one. Oh, I actually did hear about this. Tua number two, Chase Young number three to the Giants, Derek Brown fourth, Joe Burrow fifth. Oh, Isaiah Simmons, sixth, Jeff Okuda, seventh. And then it gets a little more, although he has Bechting going 11th. It's not consistent with other mock drafts I've seen. Right. And we should move on.

Yeah, I mean, I think mock drafts are conversation starters and situations. Yeah, they started a conversation. So there you go. But anyway, speaking of, so back to Edwards O'Lear, MJD. Light, I call him. Very, very elusive. And when you turn on his tape, like, you've never seen more guys just lunging for clouds of dust. Like, he just makes guys miss so many times, like multiple times on one run. And just really, really shift.

He's not like a fast home run hitter. I think he ran like in the four sixes. So people might think that's a knock on him. But he's really, really quick and elusive and tough and physical. And so anyways, I love watching him. I think he's getting a stud in the NFL. A couple deep sleepers and I'll just run through these really really quickly. These are like seventh round slash priority free agent type guys.

But J.J. Taylor from Arizona came in at 5 foot 5, 182 pounds. I mean, I love that for so. It's like Mugsy. It's like Mugsy Boggs playing in the NFL. But he absolutely just looks to wreck people who are trying to tackle him. Like you go watch his tape and he's like a bumper car just like going headed like full throttle right into people. He just wants to like deliver punishment. He's got like Wolverine tenacity.

He's just very, very fun to watch. He's not like an incredible athlete. He's not going to be a foundation back in the NFL, you know, obviously with the size. But also he's just not as. athletic as he needs to be, I don't think. But he's very quick. He's kind of like Edwards-Alair and the fact that he's quick in the short area and can make guys miss.

And so he's kind of a very poor man, it's like Darren Sprouls type player, where if you kind of use him as a pass catcher, get him out on the edge, I think he could have a role in the NFL. He's just really, really fun to watch. And then Jason Huntley from New Mexico State is kind of like my Philip Lindsay Award type player, like the guy. who he's undersized. I think he's like 193 pounds.

Like that's not necessarily a good thing in the NFL. Most, most teams want guys who are like 210, 220. And he's coming in at 193. But he has the skill set, I think, to be an effective change of pace type back.

He ran a 437 at his pro date, like right before kind of the coronavirus shut everything down. They had their pro date. He ran a 437. He had a broad jump of 10 feet 11. Both of those would have been first of the combine. Of course, you have to kind of, you know, pro days are a little bit generous with the, with the clock and all that. But clearly very explosive player, 39.5 inch vert.

He was a big play waiting to happen for New Mexico State. Great speed. If you turn on his highlight tape, he's just making guys miss all over the place. He finished with 1,090 yards in 2019, average 7.1 yards per carry, which was among the best in the country. He also had 134 catches in his college career, so he's very good. good pass catcher and he had five kick return touchdowns in college. So the kick return element like gives him a chance to make a team, but it's also a good indicator for future success in the NFL. There's been studies done that finds like if you have a college kick return on your

resume, you're more likely to have some success in the NFL. So I think that's very interesting. Oh yeah, really? Yeah, I just think it's fascinating, you know. It kind of tells you about his ability to move around in space and make things happen. So he's my super duper sleeper. I don't know if he'll get drafted, but I'm going to be watching to see where he ends up. All right, Danny, I have a problem here. And it's every single time that we do one of these, even when you give me like your super sleeper, you're so convincing that I want to draft these guys like 10th overall.

Like the guys you were like, I want this guy to be like, this guy's a great seventh round undrafted for agent value. I'm like, why is everyone going to pay? pass this guy in the second round. So with Huntley. That's fair. Go ahead. That's fair.

I was going to say with Huntley, it's his size, you know, and he played at a lower level of football. He's a little bit slim, like lower body. So I think teams are going to be worried about him, you know, not be able to to stand up to NFL, like, rigors of NFL tackles and all that. J.J. Taylor's just not fast enough. He's a little too small. I think, but again, I just, you have to imagine a role for these guys in the NFL, and I think they could both play a little bit of a role for an offense.

Danny Kelly, you watching anything good right now? I just got done watching a pretty good show on Netflix called the Bahala Murders. It's an Icelandic show, and it's about like a detective, or a detective investigating a bunch of murders in Reykjavik, I believe. So it's a really good show. Wow. If you like, like me, very dark, dreary settings. I love all these like Nordic detective series because they're all set in like really just drab,

dreary settings like with snow and ice and everyone's very depressed. I don't know why I really love all that. This just took a turn. All right. On that note, Danny Kelly, thank you for joining us. We'll talk to you next week. Sounds good, man. Okay, thank you to Warren and Danny for joining us.

We'll be back next week with a couple of shows here on this feed. And that will only increase as we get closer to draft. Thank you for joining us on the Ringar and a Fellow Show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network.