The Ringer NFL Show - Key Matchups in the Conference Championships | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: January 17, 2020

We dive deep into each of the two games this weekend while highlighting the players to bet on and avoid. Then we build our daily fantasy lineup for the conference championships. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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That's 866-561-1322. Or go to www. www.s.gely.com slash NFL. The Dynasty Football podcast on the Ringer NFL show, on the Ringer podcast network. My name is Danny Hyfitz, and I am joined as always by my co-host and my co-danny, the hero we need and the analysts we deserve, the Dark Knight himself. Danny Kelly! How are you doing, D.K.

That was borderline anger I felt there. I'm doing really, really well. Surviving the snow apocalypse in Seattle area this past week. I forgot about snow. Pretty good, yeah. I forgot snow existed. It hardly ever snows here, so it's kind of a big deal when it does. Craig, how are you doing?

When was the last time you were in snow, Craig? Oh, gosh. A long time ago. I can't remember the last time I was in snow. But I wanted to say before you asked me that, that we have pretty nice microphones here at the ringer electro voices, they're nice, they're really good quality and you still manage to peek on them

when you yell. Oh, nice, nice. Never peek, though, that's a life thing. Never peaked. That's the best advice I'll ever give in this podcast. Never peek. You've been currently peaking this whole season. Well, no, always peaking, actually. That's really the key is always peak. Always peak. So we're going to peak this week?

Sure. Is that the goal? Actually, we're going to do some little, we're going to change things up this week? A big wrench is getting tossed in this pod today. A lot of wrenches. I've never scene of wrench tossed in real life, but we're going to toss some wrenches. Remember that scene in Dodgeball where they throw the wrench and hit the guy in the head? That was a good toss.

That's the best wrench toss I've ever seen. Good throw. All right, so we are going to run through a bunch of players we like in their matchups this week. And we're still going to do our Fandul lineup of the Week breakdown at the end. But we're going to do like all the categories for each game. And then Craig has a competition. You want to explain this? Because me and D.K., you know, obviously we are 100% sure of how this works.

but she's listeners, you know. Absolutely. We may not know. D.K. and Haifitz are going to act as salesmen and they're going to sell me players and I'm going to, for our fandal lineup. And I'm going to decide who had the more compelling argument and build our lineup as we go based on really whatever I want. But we're see.

So we are the sales genies. You are the sales genies, yes. Your priors are not going to be involved in here at all? No. No vendettas. No bias. What happens if like I stole the leads like Glenn Garry, Glenn Ross? I've never seen that movie.

There's a lot of yelling. It's really just the YouTube the scene and you saw the movie It's fine Yeah, I've only seen that scene I haven't seen anything else Yeah, I don't actually know What happens at the end of it or anything

I assume that they just use the steak knives And he drives off in the Cadillac or whatever Well, there's no games next week We could all get together and screen Glenn Gary Glenn Ross We could do a Glenn Gary Glenn Ross Rewatchables next week On the Dancy Pod and we just won't tell it

We just won't tell anybody It'll be great Yeah, it went from Quentin Tarantino to us four doing Glenn Gary Glenn Ross Us three Perfect Okay, let's get it to this All right so Sunday

Sunday, yeah the Saturday football's over Thank God. Titans are playing the Chiefs on Sunday. 3 o'clock Eastern, 305 technically. Packers are playing the 49ers, 6.40 p.m. Eastern Sunday. So we're going to start with the earlier game.

Titans Chiefs. D.K., who are you going big on in Titans Chiefs? Tell me, D.K., who do you like? All right, Craig. This guy, you've probably heard of him. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, 9,500.

He is the second most expensive player on this docket, on the whole slate. And I'm just going to tell you, we saw what he can do when he's at his best, when he's at his peak. He scored 38.1.1 points, 23 or 35 or 321 yards, five touchdowns, 28 points in the second quarter alone. He turned into a buzzsaw, turned into the guy that we all knew he could be.

And Craig, ask yourself this. Of anyone left in the playoffs right now, who has the highest chance of just absolutely going scorched earth on the opponent. And to me, it's Mahomes, absolutely. I think he has the best chance of just absolutely going off this week. Last time he faced Tennessee, he tossed, he threw 50 passes, 446 yards, and three touchdowns. So anyways, I'm going big on Mahomes. I think he's going to have a big game. I think they're going to unleash him. And I think because Tennessee's a good team, I think they're going to have to kind of put the pedal to the medal. And I like, I like Mahomes a lot this week.

Good argument. A couple follow-ups. Sure. Do you think that the Titans' pace of play is going to just limit the amount of passes Patrick Mahomes can throw in this game? Well, it could, but at the same time, I mean, like I said, he threw 50 passes last time these two teams played. So it's not necessarily a huge, huge worry for me. I think it is something that you have to take into account, like if Derek Henry just grinds the clock down. But I think that with the way that I'm picturing Mahomes playing and Kansas City scoring points in this game, that the Titans aren't necessarily going to be able to do that as much as they want to.

Well, so the Chiefs are not going to have the ball as much. These teams played in Week 10, they're not going to have the ball as much as they did in that game. The Chiefs actually had the ball for 38 minutes, which is the most, the second most time an Andy Reid team has ever had the ball and lost. It was actually kind of crazy, the sequence of events that led to them losing that game. But it was also really weird. It was Mojum's first game back from the dislocated knee, or kneecap. And it was crazy because they were shredding them and really Tyreek Hill shred them in this game. I'm kind of going with Tyree Kill here, but by extension, I also do believe in Mahomes.

So I guess this is a bad start to your segment because I'm endorsing the competition here. I agree with DK and Mahomes, but I think that Tyree Kill is the key to the game, actually. Because in that Titans game, Mahomes targeted Tyree Kill 19 times. Like, that's the second most any player is had in a game this year. And it's actually the most any player on an Andy Reid team has been targeted in a game since Terrell Owens in 2005. So, like, Andy Reid basically looked at this Titans' Chiefs game in week 10 and was like, I liked this Tyree Kill matchup more than any game I've seen in my 21 seasons and 363 games or whatever. So it was wild because the Titans were playing off of Tyree Kill because he's so fast,

but it didn't work. And they weren't really pressing him at the line of scrimbage or playing man coverage. So they were doing like a lot of zone. And he was just sitting in the zones and sitting in the soft spots and shredding them. And then they switched to man and it was kind of easier. But they can't really play man this week. because the Texans tried that last week, and that's when Mahomes started running.

Because in man coverage, the cornerbacks have to, like, turn their backs, and my homes just started running. So the Titans are kind of screwed here, no matter what they do. I think that their safety, Kevin Beard. I apologize, I can't. Bired?

Bired. I can never pronounce it. Bired. I'm sorry, Kevin. I don't actually know if that's it, but I think that's it. Well, it's all right. Let's just call him Kevin. I think that Kevin's going to do pretty good on Travis Kelsey, one-on-one. I'm a little more skeptical about like a Dori Jackson

or whoever is going to be on Tyree Kill one-on-one. And I think that Mahomes actually gets a lot of rushing if they go in man coverage. And if it's zone, I think Tyree Kill has like 150 yards again. So you don't think if the Titans were to show out to try and stop one single person in this game, who is it? Is it Travis Kelsey?

Because the Titans have notoriously given up the third most points to Fantasy Titans all year. Yeah. I think it is Kel. That's the thing is I think it is Kelsey. And that's why Hill goes off. And I think that that's kind of what they did in week 10. I don't know what they're going to do,

but the choice they have is like, are you going to play man coverage and just press up on Kelsey and Tyree Kill? And like, you're probably going to give up a big play, but you're just going to have to live and die with it, and you're going to try to raise the degree of difficulty of a given play. Or you're going to play zone

and just let Travis Kelsey and Tyree Kill kind of get free releases off the line of scrimmage. That didn't work. They kind of have to go to man. Compelling arguments from both of you. I'm going to go with Patrick Mahomes, D.K.'s pick. Yeah, I would too. It's, yeah.

I'm going to just concede that one off the... He gets a, it's a handicap. I'm giving him a stroke. D.H. This is actually a good segue into our next one, though. Yeah, so the flip side of this, someone who's expensive, who we don't want in this game, we're cheating here.

There's no one expensive that we're, like, out on. Because the only expensive players in this game are Patrick Mahomes, Travis, Kelsey, Tyree Kill, and Derek Henry. We're not out on those guys, but I think there's two questions. D.K. Would you rather have Hill or Kelsey in this game, and by extension, which one do you not want? Yeah, so, again, like you said,

The framing is, like, who are you going to choose rather than who do you not like? I think I like Kelsey a little bit more in this game. Like Craig alluded to it, you know, the Titans have given up a lot of points to tight ends this year. I think it's the fourth most this season in half PPR. And so I like that matchup, first of all. And then the other thing that we kind of saw last week was when Mahomes goes off schedule and kind of like out of the scheme or whatever, he always likes to look to Kelsey.

and Kelsey's kind of that underneath intermediate guy that he really likes to hit. That absurd play that he made last week where he kind of like was running to his left, almost ran out of bounds and then just dumped it off to Kelsey. You know, these are the types of plays I think that always happen in the playoffs. And I think Mahomes has a good chance to do stuff like that. Again, I think he's going to be looking for Kelsey. So long story short, you know, it's who do you pick in a game like this? Because both players are so, so good.

But I'm just leaning. It's almost like more like a gut thing. for me. I'm leaning Kelsey in this one. Yeah, I'm not sure what the... I think it depends on how the Titans pick, which poison the Titans pick, because that's kind of what the Chiefs do. Is like, do you want to... Who are you going to, like, throw stuff against?

Is it Kelsey or Hill and the other person's going to really hurt you? And then, um, I don't know which the Titans pick, but I think that it's more likely that they're like, we're not going to roll with Kelsey. Like, we want to make sure Kelsey doesn't beat us, but we'll see. So who's the other big expensive guy that you're thinking about? What's his name? Eric Henry. They're running back from, you know.

What's his, yeah, Derek Henry. He had a really good high school career, I heard. Yeah, he's an Alabama guy. Yeah. Yeah, so he's 9800 this week. I wrote about him this week, you know, just what he's done. And Roger wrote about him at the ringer.com. There's some really good stuff up there about Derek Henry,

about the whole playoffs. But what Henry has been doing is just absolutely insane. Like, he has 377 yards on 64 carries, 180 plus yards in both games. which has never happened before. So I guess the question I would ask is, do you think that can lightning strike a third time? Do you think Henry is going to just go off again?

I'm going to flip this back and you and ask you a question. Yeah. So you mentioned he has 180 yards three games in a row, which has never happened before. Yeah. Why is this happening? Why are they doing it this way? No, why does Derek Henry have all these yards?

I know this is kind of a silly question, but I'm serious. Like, why does Derek Henry, why has he done this? Well, number one, they've really made him the focal point of the offense. Like the Patriots decided to take away the pass. And so the Titans were like, okay, we'll just lean on Henry. And in that game, because the Titans, or because the Patriots don't have a good offense, the Titans were able to do that. So they were just happy to lean on Henry.

If you go back into the regular season, Tanna Hill was throwing a hell of a lot more. It was a much more balanced offense. They were very explosive in the passing game. In the last couple of games, and that, Braven's game. I mean, you saw it was just such a weird game the way that it all went down. The Titans never really needed to turn to their passing game a lot because they got a big early lead based on a few like sort of fluky plays. And so all that combined, I think, was why he was able to go off.

Obviously, he's a very good player, you know, has that home run hitting ability and that like at a 66-yard run. He threw a touchdown. So, you know, there's just, there's a lot of variables at play. my sort of gut in this one, and I'm not saying he's not going to have a good game, but my sort of gut is that the Titans are going to have to pass a little bit more. I thought that last week, too, to be honest.

I thought that the Titans were going to have to unleash things against the Ravens a little bit more because that Ravens' offense is so good. But the Ravens just kind of collapsed, and there was so many different weird variables in that game. Well, we were thinking that the Ravens were going to take a 14-0 lead at some point, and then the Ravens had a 14-0 deficit,

which completely changed everything, and they had never been down that much the whole season. So in this game, I'm kind of going in it with the same opinion, honestly, that I think the Titans are going to have to unleash their offense a little, unleash their passing offense a little bit more because I think that the chiefs are just a buzzsaw right now offensively. So, you know, lightning could strike again, and it could be a weird-ass game. You know, you could see the chiefs fall down, fall behind early in the game like they did against the Texans. That could happen for sure, and that could change the whole dynamic of the game.

But I think it's more likely that it's going to. going to be a bit of a shootout type game. But even if Henry doesn't have 180 yards, are you actually making DFS lineups this week without Derek Henry? That's not something I'm going to advise you to do, no. I'm not going to advise you to sit Derek Henry.

And for the record, defensive lineman Chris Jones for the Kansas City Chiefs. He didn't practice Wednesday. We're recording it's Thursday afternoon. Not sure what happened today. Obviously, he's worth monitoring if he's going to play. But you mentioned Tannel's going to pass more. I mean, I believe Tannahill's either the cheapest, I guess he's the third most expensive quarterback,

but he's basically the same price as Jim McGropolo. He's a $100 more. Yeah, so do you like Tanna Hill this week by extension of that? Yeah, and I put him as my contrarian play this week. Is it because he has 150 passing yards in the last two weeks combined? He literally has, he's literally passed for fewer than 100 yards in both playoff games, which is just crazy to think about. This is going to take a big sell out of you, DK, let's hear it.

That has not happened. I'm going to first lay it out. No team has won two playoff games with fewer than 100 passing yards since 1988. So they're taking football back to the old school. That said, for all the reasons we kind of just been talking about it, I believe it's going to be a higher scoring game. I think the Chief's offense is going to be a bigger threat to the Titans that they're going to have to kind of unleash Dan Hill a little bit in this game.

And we've seen him do that in the past. We've seen him kind of just absolutely pit. pick-apart defenses in play action, which is their absolute bread and butter. So to be honest, I think that it's going to be a different type of game script for the Titans this week. I think it's still going to go, they're going to focus their offense around Henry, but I think Tannahill is definitely going to have to do more in this game. Going back to the regular season from week seven on, Tannihill was the QB3 in scoring and half PPR, 22.5 points per game.

So he has it in him, absolutely has it in him to be a high score in this game. I think he also has the additional upside as a rusher because he's, you know, he got a rushing touchdown on an option play last week. So that's another kind of nice little floor that you can get with Tannahill. And it's funny to call this a contrarian because there's only four quarterbacks. But I think of all the people that you're looking at, Taniel doesn't really stand out just because he's been such a, like a secondary part of their offense the last couple of weeks. but I think that might change this week.

Hi Fitz. Sell me on your contrarian. My contrarian. Oh, is that a voice crack? Wow. Those mics picked that up. Oh, my God. Oh, if I was peeking before, is that the valley?

Oh, no. All right. So I'm going, we're just going to just roll through it. I'm going, Jono Smith, tight end. Okay. Tennessee Titans. Interesting. It's contrarian because the other three Titans, the other three tight ends.

Titans, wow, I just figured that one out. We'll use that again, that little wordplay. But the three other tight ends in this round, you have Travis Kelsey, George Kittle, and Jimmy Graham. And Johnny Smith is $100 more expensive. $300, excuse me, more expensive than Jimmy Graham. So you basically have three guys who, along with Rob Grancowski, are on the Mount Rushmore of tight ends for the last 10 years. And then you have Tennessee's John Hsu Smith, who basically is like the one butt cheek equals two legs thing. Like that's how most people probably learned who John Hussmith was.

was, wow, I didn't know your butt, like half your butts, two feet. And, like, I mean, I'm not like a scientist, but I don't know if that checks out. But, oh, wow, but get it. Because the butt. Not your best segue. Not my best segue. But so basically, John Smith is really athletic, and I know every tight end is like, oh, like, they're all athletic. John Smith is, like, amazing.

Like, he had a play against the Texans in the regular season that he was one of the fastest plays of any player in the NFL, like by the tracking metrics. I don't know who on the Chiefs is going to guard him. Like Anthony Hitchens is one of their linebackers. I don't really actually understand matchup-wise who's going to be able to keep track of John Smith in the Red Zone where Tano has been looking for him in December. He's under the radar right now because he hasn't had great games,

but that's because the Titans haven't been passing as much. I think there's a chance that he has a touchdown or two and that obviously when there's so few options in these things, you want to cut against the grain somewhere. I think if the Titans are going to be passing more, I think he's actually one of their better matchups then not necessarily AJ Brown, not necessarily Corey Davis,

Derek Henry is going to be on the field, so D.L. Lewis isn't going to be like, you know, catching passes. I actually think John Smith is a chance that he's their best mismatch for the Chiefs defense in the red zone. And I think that if he catches a couple touchdowns and you have him in your lineup,

no one else is going to have them in their lineup. So I kind of, I like Smith, actually, to, like, get a lot of Red Zone looks in this game. Smith also had a touchdown last week against Baltimore. I like it. I'm going to go with Smith. I'm going to add one bit to that, Danny to kind of, this is cannibalizing my answer a little bit.

Nice, nice, nice. The other thing that's interesting, I think, about this is the Chief's defense has been very, very good against receivers this season. They actually have given up the second fewest points in fantasy to opposing receivers in the season. So it could be that they do end up funneling a lot of their targets to the tight-up position. So I kind of like that one a lot. All right. So if the Chiefs don't give up that many points to receivers, how do you feel that AJ Brown in this game?

Obviously, A.G. Brown was on a tear in the end of the regular season, and then the Titans haven't been passing. So what happens in this game if they're going to pass more, but the Chiefs are good against past defense against receivers? I think that Brown sort of fits into the contrarian play category a little bit, because like I said, the Chiefs are very, very good against opposing receivers this year per fantasy stats. And we don't exactly know what the Titans are going to do in terms of their offensive, you know, like strategy. Are they going to air it out or not? I like Brown a lot. You can even stack him with Tammahill if you're kind of going the contrarian route, because if they do end up passing a lot, I still think Brown has a lot of potential.

He is the third most expensive receiver on this slate, so $6,800. But we saw him what he can do. He's not your normal receiver. He's huge. He's very, very physical. He can take a play action pass to the house. He's very good after the catch. So he's not your standard sort of PPR type receiver where he's going to rack up a lot of targets.

He's more of just like a big play guy. and so I do kind of like him this week if they do end up going that pass-heavy route however it is a little bit contrarian so I'll just say that I think it's a good stack if you're trying to kind of go against the grain okay so last so this is the tie-brainer this is this is for all the marbles

for this game I mean we're doing a lineup for both games I'm fine bargain been play of the week DK who's Titans Chiefs someone on the lower end of the radar you think could have a big game all right I'm going to go with Michael Hardman this week of the Chiefs 4,900 he's very very cheap there's a reason for that. He doesn't get very many targets. However, he is an absolute big play waiting to happen. Rare, rare speed. I mean, it's incredible. He's actually, it's like not very

many people in the field can get even close to how fast Tyree Kill is, but Miguel Hardman, I think, gives him a run for his money. He's just got, like, explosive, explosive acceleration. In addition, last week, DeMarcus Robinson had, like, several drops, eight drops. I don't know how many drops he had. Maybe the Chiefs will kind of go away from him a little bit, make Hardman a bigger part of their passing offense this week. We'll see. It's definitely sort of a dart throw,

but in terms of guys at that price range that could certainly score a touchdown, I would not be surprised at all if they score a touchdown. Hardman is up there for me. And he had a long touchdown in that Titans game where he just broke away from everyone. Well, it was also like Mahomes made a jump pass. It was crazy. Like he, like the rush was

closing in from behind. He couldn't step up in the pocket. So he just jumped up in the air to buy a half second. And then through to Hardman and then Hardman just, there were like

three defenders closing on him and then he just like hit the nitrous and then just were past them before the evening it was actually like

wild. The whole like extra gear thing is like a cliche but there are like seven people in the NFL will actually have an extra gear and the chiefs have two of them. The chiefs are just like

the fastest team of all time right? Yeah. Uh, I, I, I, that's a really interesting question

but they're probably right up there. I mean, Kelsey for tight ends got to be close and then Tyreek is probably the fastest player ever. And then McCorm, it's like top ten. It's like Steph and Clay for shooting. I don't know about Tyree being the fastest player ever,

but the Steph Clay thing's actually a really good point. I mean, the whole Chief's offense is so cool because the Mahomes being in the MVP and being this good isn't like a given. It's they got the guy with the best arm talent and the biggest arm, put them around the fastest players in the league, and then have their coach, Andy Reid, who understands to use space and, like, spreads the ball around better than anyone.

So it's like everyone's maximizing each other, like the speed and the, Mahomes' talent and Andy Reid as a coach are all just like the perfect recipe for this offense and that's kind of why it's so good. It's not like an accident. Hi Fitz. Who's your guy? I'm rolling with... If we're rolling with the Tanna Hill is going to pass more in this game, which I do think because I think that unlike last week, the Chiefs will get the lead this week. I think Tajay Sharp is like a decent dart throw because he's like, does a lot of stuff in the

slot for them. Hasn't been playing that much. But if they're going to be playing more, I think that he's the person who could get like a deep shot down field or just be picking up a lot more passes. I know Khalif Raymond had like that big play last week against the Ravens. He actually also had a big play against the Chiefs in that week 10 game. I kind of think that's the reason he will not get one again. Like he actually, I think he like more than doubled his career receiving yards on that play against the Titans.

Yeah, and Tejé Sharp is only a passing down player. And that's why he hasn't been playing. So that's the issues that Titans have like gone so run heavy. But that's also the reason I think everyone's forgotten his name completely. And I think that when so many of the stars in a week like that, I mean, if you're trying to win a contest, and not, you know what I mean?

Like, everyone's got some combo with Derek Henry and Mahomes and people. The one person that can kind of win you the thing is if the random Tadje Sharp gets it to you and I think that if the Titans are passing more and suddenly there's this guy that we completely forgot about gets 45 or 50 snaps instead of like 10,

that could be the difference. I'm going to be a real sharp, a real betting sharp here. I'm going to go to Tajay Sharp. Wow. You know, he's a little cheaper than Hardman. I like Hyfitts's argument. I feel like we're going to end up having to

and bigger guys later, I like how cheapy is. I'm going with them. Wow. Sorry, McCall. Ooh, DK. Sorry, DK. I'm up 2-1 right now. Wow.

No one's ever lost the 2-1 lead. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break. Do you have enough life insurance? It's this thing we all know we need, but keep putting off because it sounds like a pain to deal with. Ladder has made getting life insurance easy. All you need to do is answer a few quick questions online

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Packers at 49ers. D.K., who's someone you think is? a very obvious candidate to have a big game in this game, but also will in fact have a big game. Thank you for sending up. We got some money to spend here, D.K., so really show out. So I'm going with George Kittle. He is just a freaking beast, and I love the dude.

Seven grand. Going up against the Packers, he was out of practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury, but the dude is Wolverine. He's back to practicing full on Thursday. In the words of my buddy, Kyle Posey from Niners Nation, Kittle will play and look like Kittl. He's a monster.

Last time, these two teams played, he had six catches, 129 yards, and a touchdown. He's a threat, honestly, he's a threat to score every time he touched it. He's just so good after the catch, just so physical. I think he's going to be a focal point of their passing offense. And yeah, I just love Kittle. I think he's just one of the hardest players to tackle in the NFL right now. And he's just, you know, he's like their spirit animal for that whole offense.

So I think they're going to feed Kittle and he's going to go off. Kittle is an excellent, perhaps elite fantasy player. But he's a better real-life player than fantasy. And I think that the Niners' ideal game plan does not involve funneling the ball to George Kittle. They want to run, where he's also an excellent run blocker. I actually think if you're going to shell out for a tie-down this week, I'd rather get Travis Kelsey. Because the chiefs do want to get Travis Kelsey the ball a ton. George Kittle can have five catches in this game

for like 85 yards Maybe a touchdown maybe not And the Niners still like can win 40 nothing I don't really I think you're gonna spend that much on a tight end I'd rather have Kelsey I was told that we weren't going to be Having like an active debate where you shit all over my answers

Danny this is just This is changing the whole format Oh I was just giving my thoughts I don't know I'm just messing with you If you're gonna shell out for someone in this game The person I think is worth it is Devante Adams.

He's... God. What? What is that? Damn, man. No. This is, I was just telling Craig before the show.

I'm like, I don't want to debate Danny because he's just gonna like, he's just gonna, he's like a very, very good arguer. And this is exactly what you do. See my cousin Vinny?

It's like my family was an argue. My family's the unofficial lawyers. I've been doing this forever. It's just a, all these bricks made a plan card. He's got to hold it at the right angle. Anyway. Anyways,

continue. I'm just messing with you, but continue. Go tout your Adams pick. So do you remember earlier when I said Tyree Kill had 19 targets against the Titans in Week 10? That was the second most any player had all season. The most targets any player had all season was Julio Jones had 20 targets against the San Francisco 49ers. And part of that is because as good as the Niners defense is, yeah, 20 targets. That's a lot of targets.

As good as the Niners defense is and as good as Richard Sherman is, they're not like, well, we're going to shut down your best receivers. Sherman isn't like shadowing anyone. It's more about they're going to just suffocate your offense, but the Niners, like, number one receivers from fantasy perspective, have done pretty well against that because everything else kind of withers and dies, but they're not like going to focus on like, well, we have to stop Devante Adams. And Adams is playing so much better than he was when they played, the Niners and Packers played in Week 12.

I mean, he's also just much healthier, his back from the turf toe injury. Aaron Rogers said last week that he feels that he has the mind meld with Devon. at this point that he had with Jordy Nelson. He said it was stronger than the one he had with Jordy Nelson. And obviously, Rogers' connection with Jordy Nelson was, I mean, one of the most amazing things to watch for years was how they just could, without speaking. I mean, Rogers said it was unspoken, but they could just, Jordy could just turn on a route and, like, in a way that isn't planned, but he just knew he was going to do, and they put it on his back shoulder.

That is what Devante has right now. He's the only receiver they have, really. The Packers are a weird team because they have Devante, who's a legit top five receivers. and then they have like four guys who are like number four receivers who just fill in behind them. I think those guys are going to be the ones that really just do nothing.

And they're actually going to get the Devante the ball like 16 targets in this game. They've been relying on him so much. I mean, he, I think he had, he tied the Packers franchise record for catches in week 16, which was, that was against the Vikings. Like, I just think that they're going to be targeting him

like they did in the week 12 game. The Niners were kind of, the Packers are going after at Keller Witherspoon, who's one of the Niners' cornerbacks who's kind of giving up a lot of plays. He's probably going to get bench,

but they're still going to try to get Adams onto Emmanuel Mosley, get him away from Richard Sherman because Richard Sherman plays one side of the field. They can put Adams in the slot. They can put him wherever they field to get wherever they want

to get whatever matchup. And I think George Kittle might have five catches. I think Devante Adams could have 15. Well, High Fitz, like Rogers and Jordy, I have the mind meld with you on this round because I'm going to go with Devante Adams. Now, penciling him in. 3-1.

No one's ever blown a 3-1 lead. Who are we going with for, who we not going with, I should say, and going home on, D.K.? Yeah, I'm going with Aaron Rogers. Despite everything that Danny just said, the Seahawks defense and the Vikings defense is not like the 49ers defense. The 49ers, sorry, the Packers absolutely just picked apart the Seahawks last week. That was somewhat predictable, considering the Seahawks secondary is not good. They made no adjustments. They have no pass rush.

49ers have all those things. They have a very, very good pass rush. I think that's going to affect Rogers a lot in this game. He is the fourth most expensive player on this slate, and that just feels really high to me. I just think of all the quarterbacks on this slate, he's the guy that I'm absolutely staying away from. The last time these two teams met, he had nine points in Fandulul's scoring,

20 of 33 for 203 yards and a touchdown. You might want to remember that when you're picking Devante Adams. So, Craig. So, yeah, I just... just think they're going to see what they're going to see what the 40 or what the Packers did to Seahawks last week they're going to adjust to it

I think Rogers is going to struggle against a very very very good defense this week I think he's a little salty there but I'm not disagreeing I also don't like Rogers nearly as much as my homes are people but I on that note statistically their game the Packers 49ers game was statistically the worst game of Aaron Rogers's career

among like I was it I mean if you take out the ones where you like they benched him for Matt Flynn or like he got hurt. That was like, I mean, he had three something yards per attempt it was his lowest ever.

It was like the second lowest yards he had in the game. But like also he had like 40 air yards in the game, but 60 yards after the catch. So it's 104 passing yards. Actually like way more than half of it was after the, his longest completion was like 15 yards, but that pass was like a screen to Jamal Williams,

five yards behind the line of scrimmage that Jamal Williams then ran 20 yards for a 15 yard gain. It was like they got nothing going. going downfield. But I think that could be a little different this time because as crazy as this is to say, the 37 to 8-9ers win was kind of closer than you'd think because it was like 13-0 at the two-minute warning. And Rogers was like a few inches off like three different passes that would have put them

like in the goal line. Like two were to Devante Adams. One was to Jimmy Graham. It's like they were really close to making a 13-7 to 13-3 at halftime. And then the Niners added 10 points in like the final 70 seconds. to make a 23-0, and then, you know, the Niners, if it's 23-0, half-time, it's over. But 13-3, 13-7's not.

So, weirdly, statistically was the worst game of his career, but if you just watch the game, it's like, well, there was a lot of pass pressure. Their right tackle, Brian Bilaga, got hurt, like, nine steps into the game, and then they had a second-year undrafted guy go in to replace him. I'm worried about, like, the Niners collapsing the interior of that pocket, because I think Eric Armstead and DeForest Buck are amazing. But I also think Rogers could do way better.

than he did in that game. But way better could be doubling or tripling it and still not actually be worth fantasy playing it. So I think both are true. Who else are you going home on? Kevin Coleman, man. I know that we were confused last week. We were confused.

Everybody was confused. Everyone's confused. Yeah. It was like out of nowhere. So Kevin Coleman went from like just getting benched and ghosted all his fantasy owners in December to getting like most of the carries in this game last week against the Vikings.

So you're saying I should not have Kevin Coleman in our lineup this week. So Tevin Coleman had 22 carries last week, which was the most of his career. Wow. Which is crazy. But Kyle Shannon explained himself. He said last week, quote, I mean, we gave Matt Breeder the first carry. We thought of Rahim, Tom up, Rahim Oster. We thought Rahim and Tevin would get the bulk of them.

But with Rahim probably getting more like it has been the last few weeks, then Rahim's calf cramped up a little bit, so he missed the series. And Tevin did really good on that series, really good. So he kept him in for another series. really well. And then by the time the third one came, there was no point to put Rahim back in with his calf cramping. So Tevin ended up banging up his elbow a little bit, so he put Breda in, but no, it just worked out that

way. The hot hand. The hot hand. It seems unlikely with the combination of Rahim Ostert's like calf, I mean, he's a cramp, so you would hope that he's going to be in good shape for this home game. And if he's back, Tevin Coleman is the third most, or sorry, the fourth

most expensive running back. So you've got like Derek Henry at number one, then he's got like Aaron Jones and Damie Williams. And then you've got like Tevin Coleman right there as if he's like a bell cow guy when he's like maybe has like he doesn't even, he's not even a good candidate to get the most carries in this game because Mostert's back. It doesn't sound like Coleman would have gotten those 22 carries if Mostery was in. It sounds like he was just doing so well that they basically just instead of splitting

it like a third, third third. They gave Mastricht's third of the carries to Tavn Coleman. So I don't think that he's going to get that this week. And it's not worth shelling out from you can save $700 and just get Moster's. he's probably going to have a better game. All right now, Craig. Aaron Rogers or Tevin Coleman? Tevin Coleman.

I could see a scenario in which, I don't know, going against Rogers is always just a gutsy call playoffs. You know how I like the vets, you know? You love the vets. Veteran. Steely veteran. The three-headed running back thing is always scary, but I trust you,

and we're going to get to Mostert later, I think. I love Mostert in this game. He's had cap cramping last week is obviously a deterrent. But the game we always play of like, you wake up the next morning, what do you feel more dumb about? It's like sitting the bargain Rogers

and being like, wow, really? Perhaps still the best quarterback of these four teams. Like I sat him and he was the third cheapest quarterback. But I'm not going to be upset with myself if Coleman gets another record setting carry day for him. Yeah, if Coleman gets three, like if you play Kevin Coleman this weekend

and he gets five carries, you'll be like, oh yeah, that was probably foreseeable. Yeah. I'm willing to bet on Rahim Mastred again because he's been so good. He's just kind of changed. He is doing most of what

the Niners want. Also, I think the Niners were playing Kevin Coleman a lot because he was a mismatch and the Vikings kind of three linebackers on the field. The Packers are less likely to do that as often as the Vikings did. I think Maastred's going to be a great one for this week. So I don't know if that quite qualifies as Contrarian, but that's my contrarian for this game, is that Mostert's going

to be better, like outright outscored Kevin Coleman for cheaper. Well, that was the one Contrarian D.K. had as well. So we're penciling... You just You just outright stole my contrarian play. That's fine, though. We're going to give that point to D.K. Because he picked him, and we're going to pencil and we're going to pencil and

Rahimosa to the lineup. But Hyphitz, your other guy, you just got too caught up and that's what I love about you. I just... You love the fucking game. You know what I mean? So much. You got tunnel vision sometimes. I get the love of the game clause in my contract actually. You totally do. I just know, I have that written. It's like, I can just

rant at people on the street. Like, if I want to yell someone about football, I can just rant at them on the street. I've seen you doing that in a sweet green. It was alarming. Yeah, no. It's crazy. Was the Sir, this is an Arby's invented because of you, Danny? The what? It's Sir, this is a Wendy's. A Wendy.

Did you just confuse Sir, this is a Wendy's meme with the Nihilist Arby's Twitter account? Yes. If we were allowed to title these episodes like whatever we wanted, I would title this episode, Sir, this is an Arby's.

I can't do that, but I'd love to. Anyway, hi Fitz. I think that people say the Sir, this is an Arby's. You can search Sir This is and Arby's. There's like hundreds of them. There are dozens of us. There are literally dozens of us. Dozens.

Hi Fitz. You had one of the contrarians. you wanted to mention the Packers defense. Oh, we're talking Contrarian. I think if the Packers win this game, it'll be part like they're just connecting on the deep throws to Adams more. And then also just,

people forget that the Packers D-Line is actually just like the light version of the Niners because they also have, they also added two players this year. It's like the Niners defense. They have a very good deal. Yeah, so Darry Smith led the league in quarterback pressures by Pro Football Focus.

I mean... Yeah, he was amazing. I mean, again, the person who leads the pressures in pro football focus for context generally just wins defensive player of the year. Like, that's just Aaron Donald and JJ Watt. Zadairnsmith led all those players for edge rushers.

Like, led all of them pass pressures, didn't even make the pro bowl. So it's kind of a joke. But he's fantastic. And if they get to Garoppolo, like, I wouldn't be shocked if, I mean, Gropo's a gun slayer. Like, Garapolo throws a lot of dumb passes. And he's, like, very confident. Takes a lot, like, what he would say probably are calculated risks, a lot of 50-50 balls. also just threw a ball into Eric Kendrick,

the Vikings linebacker Eric Kendrick's chest last week, didn't catch it. Then he basically did the same thing later and Eric Kendrick's caught it for the pick. I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers got a defensive touchdown in this game and ended up being the most, our highest scoring would do way better. And they're the cheapest one here,

and I think that that's actually, I'm intrigued by the contrariness there. So are you actually picking the Packers, DFCU had the choice of all four defenses? No. Who would you pick? If I could pick any of them, I think it's probably,

and D.K. way in here if you got somebody. I mean, I would go with the 49ers just because they're only $600 more expensive than the Packers, who are the cheapest. And the 49ers defense has been really good. So I'd probably go to the 49ers, but I definitely like that argument, though. All right, so I clinched.

Tough beat for D.K. That's all right. So, Craig, can you reveal what we got at our team right now? Yes, so if we are penciling in the Packers defense, which is what you recommended, our team... Yeah, what could go wrong? Our team is Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. At running back, we have Rahim Moster and an open slot, and we have money, so we'll get there later. Our receivers, Devante Adams, A.J. Brown, Tajay Sharp, our tight end, Travis Kelsey, our flex, Johnny Smith, and the Packers are our defense.

So we have $7,500 to spend on a running back. The running back's available for that price are Tevin Coleman, Matt Breed of Darwin Thompson. So I'm suggesting we need to, like, get $100 more to get to Damien Williams. So I'm suggesting we do that and we cut A.J. Brown. and we lower AJ Brown and get Debo. And we go Debo instead of AJ and we go Damien Williams at running back. How do you feel?

What are your thoughts on Debo? I mean, I'm into that. I think that works for this situation. You know, Debo has been such a Swiss Army knife guy for them. You could see him having a rushing touchdown. You could see him catching passes down the field. It's him or like Emmanuel Sanders or Sammy Watkins. Would you rather have Debo out of those three?

I would, yeah, I think so. What if we get Derek Henry and bargain and just go absolute bottom? The true bottom of the barrel. If we do Derek Henry, I'm going to have to, like, mortgage my house. Okay. This is how we... Who's the tight end?

Our tight end is Travis Kelsey, Johnny Smith. Okay. Gotcha. So we're going all in on the Titans. We're going all in on on the Chiefs. We're basically just betting for a shootout in that game, and then Devonte Adams is really good. Not a bad lineup. We'll see how it goes.

Hyve it's one of the competition. So if it goes poorly, tweet him. Yeah, it'll work out. It's fun. So wait, what's our lineup? Do one more rundown. Sure. Patrick Mahomes.

running backs Rahim Moster and Damien Williams wide receivers Devonte Adams Debo Samuel and Tajay Sharp Our tight end is Travis Kelsey Our flex is Jonu Smith And our defense is the Packers Not bad Boom

It's harder than you think to build these Like you want to get like Tyreek and Derek Henry And then you kind of can't have anybody else Like you really can't go too big All over the board Yeah I think this is an example Of how democracy and compromise

Leads to nobody being happy Exactly That's what we just did here This line up will finish in the middle of the pack on Sunday And we'll be like like, oops. Yeah.

But then we'll learn and grow and make a million dollars during the Super Bowl. Yeah, no, that'll, there we go. All right. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, D.K.

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