The Ringer NFL Show - Key Super Bowl Advantages, the Kirk Cousins Sweepstakes, Prop Bets, and the Future of Football | GM Street (Ep. 233)

Episode Date: February 2, 2018

The Ringer's Michael Lombardi and Tate Frazier break down the Alex Smith trade (02:45), teams in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes (06:15), Von Miller's secret to beating the Patriots (15:45), Eagles players falling ill (20:30), which Super Bowl team's offense looks like the future of football (24:15), and prop bets (34:30), before they predict Sunday's winner (43:15). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to GM Street. We usually do a pre-roll for this show at the top here, but we had actually had a little quote come in from Bill Belichick, the head coach of the New England Patriots, talking about Mike Lombardi, the co-host of this podcast, and we want to drop in a little clip here, and then we'll get in the show. Friday Focus coming up. Bill, you've been asked a few times this week about influences in your coaching career. Just curious, though, on the scouting side of your job in the roster building, who kind of helped develop your philosophy there?

A lot of that was really developed in Cleveland. And a great sky stat. Like people like Jerry Schwartz, like Coach Saving, Coach O'Brien, because our coaches had a lot of influence in the scouting system. We put that together. Boy, of course, that time in Cleveland, I mean, not speaking for Nick, but I know that in talking too, Nick, I know that a lot of the principles that we, as we've moved along,

identifying players and there's certain characteristics. How to give them a grade, how to know. But that was really a lot of that was developed. I would say all that was developed for me. Welcome to GM Street, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. It is Friday. It is the Friday Focus. And it is Groundhog Day, Mike Lombardi. Yeah, it is.

Do you see that movie? It's a great movie. And I had a little quote that I wanted to throw it out there, too. Oh, I love it, Tanger. Well, what if there is no tomorrow, there wasn't one today from the great Bill Murray, Phil, aka in the Groundhog Day, a great film, and it's a great holiday. And we have a lot more winter to come this Sunday because we have the Super Bowl. Right.

And what the Groundhog saw is, like, six more weeks of winter? Yes, six more weeks of winter. So that means six more weeks of like 80 degrees in California? Yeah, I know. It's really tough to really get into ground. I used to love Groundhung Day when I was a kid. My mom's a first grade teacher. So she's all about these little holidays.

And, you know, whenever you would get the winter, you would be upset as a kid. But now, living in California, it wasn't that bad, right? It could be tough, you know. 35 degrees. Oh, come on. Take Frasier. It was minus seven in Minneapolis today. I mean, come on.

You can't complain. You can't complain. You can't complain. Let's talk about some big news off the top. We're going to get into the Friday, focused and talk about the game itself, which we promised on Tuesday, but first off, we've got to talk about Alex Smith. Alex Smith gets traded from the Kent City Chiefs to the Washington Redskins to take the place

of Kirk Cousins, presumably, and Andy Reid gets what he wants. He wants Pat Mahomes to be the deep ball and be the quarterback for the Chiefs, and now they figured it out. Yeah, and he gets a third round pick, plus he gets a corner, slack corner, Kyle Fuller. That's a good player, so he adds that. You know, the Browns are complaining because they offered it to, but, you know, the players is important as anything in this transaction. So he gets that.

And the Redskins, you know, spend $71 million more dollars for Alex Smith. And, you know, and they're going to have to have to really see if he can fit. You know, the one thing I don't think Cousins got enough credit for is how well he played based on the surroundings that he had. Now, look, he's not, you know, we get mad at Cousins because it's not our fault. It's not his fault. He got overpaid, right? That's not his fault. But we always get mad at him.

Now, Alex Smith is now overpaid. It's 71 million guaranteed. I want to with Garoppolo and Aaron Rogers and all these other guys. Now, Garoppolo is going to be his first deal. But you've got to think Aaron Rogers and Matt Ryan are going to have like, well, wait, wait. He gets 71 million. Like somebody's headed to get 100 million guaranteed. It ain't John Gruden too, right?

You know? So I think it's an interesting trade for the Washington Redskins because this is a team now they're going to be in transition. And can they make those plays down the field? can they adapt the offense to what Alex Smith does? That's going to be the key. And I think that's what Andy Reid never gets enough credit for. It's the second time he's traded a starting quarterback to the Redskins, Donovan McNabb, and now Alex Smith.

So I don't think he gets enough credit for how he helped develop that Utah West Coast version offense for Alex Smith. And can Jay Gruden do that as well? And you talk about West Coast College. That was the nickname, the moniker that we had for Andy Reed's offense for Alex Smith. Alex Smith will come in to the Redskins and the offense will obviously work itself out with Jake Rood and I want to talk about a little bit about the defense. You mentioned Kyle Fuller who was put in this trade

and it was sort of a throwaway statement that they had this young corner that was a part of the deal. Well, DJ Sweringer and the rest of that defense on the Redskins was not very happy about him being included in the deal. He was tweeting some things, Swarender saying, you know, I can't believe this. He's the best player on our team. He's the best corner on our team.

He's the future of our defense and you just threw him away for nothing. So not only does Alex Smith come in with the pressure of being this franchise quarterback, $71 million guaranteed, he also has to deal with the fact that one of the most like players on defense, a young guy that everyone seemed to have an affinity for, is now going to the Kansas City Chiefs. And when you look at the Chiefs, you have Marcus Peters and Fuller now, and you have two great corners on the outside. So it's a great trade for the Chiefs. It really is. And now they'll find a way to get better pass rush, and they'll try to, you know, obviously they kept Bob Sutton.

I didn't think they were going to keep Bob Sutton this year. I thought they would finally make the trade. And perhaps that finally cash him out. But I think what happened was they realized over the landscape, maybe it's better to just improve what they have as opposed to make a complete change. Fuller helps them tremendously. Fuller will give them another dimension

as at least a legitimate starting corner on the outside. And the Redskins, they paid all that money to Josh Norman. They're going to have to really kind of go with that and see how it works out. You know, for me, the Redskins, I just don't see the Redskins. I think they add players. They really don't build a team. It's going to be really, to me, a challenge for them.

I think Alex Smith won't turn the ball. over, I think it's a good player. They cashed out because they weren't going to pay the 144%. So they kind of made the best of a bad situation. They should have never been here, but not my end said. They made the best of a bad situation. But can Alex Smith take him to the next level? I really have doubts about that. And you talk about making the best of a bad situation. A guy that's in a bad situation right now is Kirk Cousins. He just lost his team. They just traded. No, he's in a great situation, take Brasier. No, he couldn't be happier. That's right. He has made like $85 million. So I guess he's okay.

I mean, other than it's going to cost him a little bit of money to move and he's got to sell his house back in D.C. I mean, what else could he's got the perfect situation. He's got the Jets, your team that you predicted he would go to, in love with them, right? He's got the Denver Broncos in love with them. He's got all these teams that need quarterbacks and he's free with paying nothing. No draft pick compensation. That's the other thing I think the Redskins, it'll be fascinating to see going back to the Redskins is they gave up the third round. pick, which is essentially what they could get back for cousins as a compensatory pick if they don't

spend a lot of money in free agency. So that component of the deal, and I think the Redskins probably know what they're going to do in free agency, and if they pay really close attention, because we know cousins will sign day one, day, too. And if they really monitor the compensation, and teams do this. We did this in New England all the time. We can't really sign this guy because we would lose a compensatory pick, so if we could wait, If they do that and really play it, they could end up with a third round comp pick as well as, you know, so basically they traded Fuller for Cousins and moving down slots, basically.

Yeah. Well, hopefully they can figure that out. But Cousins, now, back to Cousins. Don't feel sorry for Couss because Cousins is going to be a really rich and he's going to pick the team that he wants. And he's going to be able to get comfortable with the offense he wants, something that he can feel like. And the Jets, obviously, now they've hired Jeremy Bates as their offense coordinator, who's a Mike's Shep. Shanahan disciple, Kyle Shanahan. He and was down in Tampa Bay with Kyle and Shanahan. They were both interns on the Gruden staff. So he went to Denver with Mike. So that offense, Rick Denison's, the offensive line coach now, was also with Mike Shanahan. So there's a lot of familiar faces at the Jets that would make that offense terminology-wise very comfortable for cousins. I don't think this is going to come down to pay. I think everybody's going to pay. Will it come down to state taxes? perhaps, right? If Jacksonville were in it, then, you know, Jacksonville could pay a little less because Florida has no state income tax, whereas New York and New Jersey, you know, that area, you get hammered. So that deal is going to be higher. So, but I don't think it's going to come down to money. I think it's going to come down to fit. And it comes down to fit, and we have to figure out the teams that can fit in the Kirk Cousin sweepstakes. And obviously, a lot of teams have been thrown out. Jacksonville was one of the teams originally that was thrown out. We know Blake Bortles now with the injury. So we get this clear. So Blake Bortles can't pass that physical.

in March the first day of the league year. And once he can't pass that physical, and he's declared injured, that $19 million is guaranteed for at least one more year. Now, Jacksonville could, they have enough cap room. They could say, okay, Blake,

you got $19 million as the backup quarterback. We don't have a problem. We're still going to bring competition in. Like, I'm not saying they're not. That would be a tremendous amount of players, of resources at the quarterback position. And maybe they think they could trade Blake or something. Again, why are we talking about Blake?

But anyway, so the point here is, is that 19 million, they're on the hook, which could take them out of some situations. Well, it's going to probably, I mean, most likely, absolutely, actually, take them out of the Kirk Cousin Sweepstakes. And that opens the door up for a couple other teams. So first off, everyone wants to talk about the Cleveland Browns. They need a quarterback, but most people believe that they're going to take the best quarterback available in the draft of the number one pick. Okay, so let's take them off the board. We're going to go to Arizona. There's been a lot of people that speculated Arizona would be in the Kirk Cousin Sweatstakes,

but they haven't really said a peep about Kirk Cousins, and it doesn't seem like that's a guy they're going to go after, even though they don't have a quarterback on the roster right now. So then we're going to get in the two teams that really are in play. First off, the New York Jets, which you mentioned, they have the six pick. They're saying they're going to go after some young guys, but we've seen McCown be there. They do want a veteran quarterback possibly to come in.

Kirk Cousins can fit that role for them with the Jets. I mean, do you talk about the Shanahan terminology, but bringing in Cousins and what he can do for the Jets, I mean, that makes them an instant contender. Right. Well, that gives them at least some stability. a quarterback. And we saw the Jets last year when Josh McAllen played effectively

and all due respect to Josh. We know Kirk Cousins is a better player than that. That's going to help them. And they're going to have to obviously handle this Robbie Anderson off the field incident. They're going to have to increase their talent level on offense. But given us... Maybe Sepharian Geneans can make a catch this year. No reviews. Yeah, no review catches.

But they have the makings of they could probably get this thing going. But my point here is, I think, you know, Denver, there's two teams. I mean, Cleveland has all the cap room in the world. And so does – and the Jets have a ton of cap room as well. So that's not going to be the issue. It's Denver how they make cap room and how they manipulate this roster because they can do it.

They're just going to have to make some pieces of moving around. And let's talk about Denver. I mean, Von Miller, obviously, the face of the Denver Broncos defense and, you know, a Super Bowl MVP, he came out and, you know, a lot of times when you ask guys about players and free agents, they sort of just tiptoe around it, you know, give the PC answer. But Von Miller blatantly said, I like Kirk Cousins and I like what he could bring to our team. Kirk Couss is a great quarterback. He's a great leader.

A plus is across the board when he comes to play and his ability on the field. And, yeah, I wouldn't mind to play with a guy like that. I've been against him. I've played against him. I know exactly what he brings to the table. I don't mind playing with a guy like that. All right. So we hear Vaughn.

He comes out and he puts it out there. The Broncos, that seems like a good fit for Cousins. Obviously, Cousins, I think he even has already responded to Von Miller's comments and said that he was flattered by the comments that Vaughn would say that he would like to see him there. So all that's to be said. I mean, John Elway needs a quarterback in Denver, and this seems like the veteran kind of fit. It seems like the right fit when you put all the pieces together. Well, it's the way to – you know, look, the Redskins are trying to cover up their mistakes so they trade for Alex Smith.

I mean, John Elway is trying to cover up for his mistakes. Paxton Lynch, you know, letting Osweiler almost make it not disastrous thing. You know, I think what Von Miller is crying out for us, he's seen a lot of bad quarterbacking going on in Denver. and with just not turning the ball over and them playing good defense, they could actually get back in this thing. But because they're so bad offensively, it'll be interesting. And with John Gruden going to the Raiders and the Raiders know they're going to be better. And Kansas City, we think they'll be better.

And we know the Chargers have a really good young team. And Rivers responded. So this is a pivotal – I mean, if Denver doesn't get cousins, they're going to have to draft a quarterback and they're going to have to go young. this is really a huge, huge decision for them. And I think the decision is going to be, will it be the right fit? Now, you know, Denver's a great football town, all that, but is it the right fit? New York's, you know, the Jets are the Jets.

They have a lot of things going for them too. And Cleveland has a lot of things going for them as well. So in terms of money, I'm not sure in terms of comfort and feeling like. I will say that just based on how Hugh has reacted to Hugh Jackson and this whole situation, it seems like he is planning to have a young quarterback. and he wants to be the voice. You know, it doesn't seem like he wants to bring in a veteran person and a veteran voice in that locker room.

Yeah, I mean, what you hear out of Cleveland is so many different things. I mean, look, let's be real honest here. I mean, when you go 1 and 31 and you start off next year with a young quarterback and you go 0 and 5, 0, and 6, okay, I can't imagine. I know that because there was a lot of people at the Brown's organization, including people that have talked to Sashi Brown that felt like that they were going to make not fire Brown.

and they were going to fire the coach. And things kind of got convoluted. I mean, I've said this to you on the podcast before. Sashi Brown, according to my sources, was told that he was hiring John Dorsey to help him. And then he got told he was getting fired. So I don't know what you can believe coming out of Cleveland. That's the point of this whole conversation. All we know is that Jimmy and Hugh, they're close.

And they're talking to each other. So that's what really matters. And the other thing I thought that was fascinating and hilarious. We have Groundhog Day today. But I love how people were tweeting out. It was Hugh Jackson Day on 13. 131. 131.

I was about to ask you how you celebrated a Hugh Jackson Day. Yeah, I loved it. I celebrate the way I did. I mean, I wrote more by I wrote, but I mean, I love the fact that we actually had a day for that. It was great. I enjoyed it. It was one of my favorite holidays of 2018 so far, that's for sure. It is.

I put it on my calendar every year to come back and talk about it. Because really, who is going to be one and thirty-two? I mean, this is just going to keep continue, because no coach is ever going to be able to be one-and-32 without getting fired again. Hugh Jackson is the anomaly. So as he adds to it, this record is like the Maggio hit streak. It's never going to get beaten. And I can't wait until he's like 3 and 31. Then we get March 31st.

You know, it just keeps rolling and rolling. Hopefully that means two wins for Hugh Jackson. He's never going to be a February guy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's not going to work in February. He's already past that point. But we're going to try our best to celebrate Hugh as much as possible. We were just talking about Vox.

Well, that's an interesting question, Tate Fraser. Like, you're a smart guy. I like figure it out. Like, there's, so he's got 31 losses. So it has to be a month that he has. win now to keep the holidays going. Yes. Yeah, like once he loses one more.

Once he loses one more, it's over. That's how I know that we're done. That's when he's going to get fired. If he loses one more game, it's over. Because then we have no more celebrations and it's all sad times. I mean, can we place that bet? I don't even know what the opening day schedule is. Can we get Cousin-South?

Yeah, we got to talk to Cousin. When you go over and do the way in on Saturday, Sunday. Yes, Harry's way in. How he's way in. Can you ask what do you think the odds are? Can we get the money line for that? I know that South celebrated Hugh Jackson Day. He was very excited about that.

that declaration. So we'll figure it out. We'll do the research and see what's going on there. We were just talking about Von Miller, and I have a fun little thing pulled it up. Von Miller just wrote a piece. You know the Players Tribune where these athletes say they all write their features and columns and whatever they're into. Derek Jeter obviously edits and reads them all. But Von Miller puts this out, how to beat the Patriots. It's a full feature-linked piece from Von Miller about how he beat the Patriots, how the Broncos beat the Patriots before they went to the Super Bowl and Super Bowl 50, yada, yada. But the main premise of the piece is, and now we're going to get in the game, because I want to start with this.

He says, the main way to beat the Patriots, and it's simple as this, sack Tom Brady. And that will lead us into Super Bowl talk here, because if you're the front seven of the Philadelphia Eagles and you're Jim Schwartz, you got to know. We've got to get our hands on Tom Brady, and we've got to hit him a little bit. Yeah, you've got to disrupt them. But disrupting them, see, Denver's defense, what Vaughn's talking about, they played a lot of press coverage. So there was no really easy free releases.

In Philadelphia, there is free releases at times. There's times where they do play press, but there's also some free releases. So it's a little bit different. You can get the ball out at times. They're going to read the quarterback. They're going to play some off coverage. They're not always going to be impressed. Vaughn was impressed.

That's one. Two, they were a nickel that whole game. So at that point in the 2000 season, as the formula to beat, the Patriots unfolded, they basically said to the Patriots very clearly, look, we're going to play nickel. You can't run the ball against us. We don't care. You can't block us.

We're going to play nickel. We're not going to get into a chess match against you. Now, that could be a strategy that actually happens for the Eagles. The Eagles could Jim Schwartz could say, you know what, we're going to line up a nickel, and we think we can play the run with a seven-man front and just dare you to run the football. That could happen. The Patriots this year run the ball much more effectively than they did there at then 2015. So that could be a little iffy there.

But the one thing, one thing I think that's the difference in this team as opposed to the Eagle team is the fact that the snap count, right? We're playing in a dome stadium that's one way or the other. It's going to be Patriot and Eagle fans where that stadium in Denver, the snap count was ridiculous. Stork, our center. He was struggling just to hear it and there was some bad communication. It wasn't on him. It's not his fault. You know, he was playing injured.

was trying to fight his way through it. And we basically, if you go back and rewatch that tape, we snapped it on one every single time. And if you play any good defensive line and you snap it on one, you're in your own, that's your own fault. You're in trouble. We had no choice. Okay.

So there's a lot of things that when people do this, when they compare this game to that game, they never really set the agenda or they set the table correctly to really make the comparisons. I mean, there's some things you can derive from that game, not everything. Yeah. And he was, I think, the main premise, too. was you need to have two substantial pass rushers on the outside. That's sort of what he was arguing in this piece, whether it was where and him or whoever it was.

And I think when you go back and watch that tape again, he got off on the ball. Like it was so bad. Like he knew it was on one. So he was almost off sides of every play. Well, that's what he did at Cam Newton. I mean, he killed him. Cam wasn't doing anything with the snap count. He was doing everything.

And that leads us into this thing. And so Brady now has a better chance to, Brady has a much better chance to change the snap count, which he has to do to keep the Eagles off balance. He's got to use some hard count. He's got to use some quick count. He's got to use some longer count. And if they go some no huddle, which we know that gives the Eagles problem, is tempo.

But tempo could be a dangerous thing for the Patriots in this game because what you don't want to do is accumulate a ton of yards in a short amount of time. You want to be able to keep that eagle defense on the field for 70 plays. That's the goal. And make them play 30 minutes of defense. So if you go no huddle, then you get at the line of scrimmage, you make them line up and make them play in their stance. You know, Fletcher Coxson is three points stance for 15, 20 seconds. That's not really that what happens is that affects your ability to get off on the ball.

You're sitting there waiting and waiting and wait. It's like it would be like a sprinter being in a block and him being in a position to sprint, but he's got to hold it there for 20 seconds. Like it's like it gets tedious. You can't really. once they get in, they want to go, right? They don't put those horses into... They could almost freeze up at that point. Right, they don't put those horses into the stall.

They don't put them in there 15 minutes before the derby starts, right? As soon as they go in there, they know that door's going to open and they go. Same thing with pass rushers. They want it to go. That's why I think the Patriots will play pace and they'll slow it down. And I want to talk about that Eagles defense just across the board right now. They have been, there have been multiple Philadelphia Eagles players and has come out that they're actually sick this week. Ronald Darby missed Thursday's media availability.

because of an illness. Timmy Jernigan, another guy that we know is someone that's going to make an impact on this game if he can, but he's also under the weather with the cold right now. And then it came out Michael Kendricks and Doug Peterson are both also sick. So you're talking about 70 plays on the field for that Eagles defense. I mean, if they're all battling the flu or flu-like symptoms or whatever it is, I mean, if you're keeping them out on the field,

I mean, that could be a real big advantage for the Patriots. Yeah, well, it can. They're going to get IVs before the game, and I'm sure they're taking all the, all the meditative. distance they possibly can take. They've got great medical staffs there and they can handle that. Here's the other factor that this kind of doesn't really seem to be as important. Half time's so long, tape Fraser. Half time's really long. So you can really spend a lot of time. Most every player can get an IV at halftime. And there's plenty of time to get it into your system and recharge because

you've got this, you have more time to kind of to do it with a 12 minute. Once the players leave the field, in normal games, they set the clock at 12 minutes and they got to be, and this half's going to start once every player's gone. This is, you know, we got, we got Timberlake, we got a stage. You know, we got a lot of, dancers, everyone, we got everybody, you know, I mean, we got a show to put on. And that allows these teams to basically, they're playing two games. They're going to play the two quarters first. Then there's going to be this huge break, which is going to be IVs, rest, you're going to have to restretch yourself again. I mean, Bruske was even saying that they had food at one Super Bowl, because they

didn't know like how long if guys were going to be affected by it or whatever it was. You know, now obviously they're not having lasagna, right, but they're going to have some kind of way that they shakes or whatever that you would normally do after a practice or something and recharge yourself. And that's really why I think that these guys injured. Now, the problem is hydration, really, is when you play inside and if you're really not properly hydrated, and this is something I'm sure Belichick's been preaching because he did it constantly in New England to the team is hydrate, hydrate, hydrate, because you're going to run out in that, in the fourth quarter, when the game is going to matter the most, you can't be cramping, you can't be

tired, you've got to be fresh. And so you've got to play the first half a little bit to where you're making sure the fourth quarter you're rested and well to go. And I think the IVs help, but I also think the depth of the team will help. That's why the play count in this game is so damn important for the Patriots because the Eagles never play that much defense. I mean, they play an average of around 26 minutes. You get them up to 30 all of a sudden. They give up yards. I mean, they'll give up I mean, the Giants had over 400 yards in 22 minutes. The Chargers had over 400 yards in 20 minutes. They'll give you yards.

You've got to be able to get that time and that clock up, because once you do that, now they're tired. You talk about time of possession, and that is what the Philadelphia Eagles offense right now is predicated on it. It is the Andy Reed trickle-down effect offense where we are going to have these run-pass options. And shout out Tony Romo for putting that on to everyone in the world. That's all I hear now when we hear any immediate coverage.

All the Eagle fans hate Chip Kelly, right? They all hate Chip Kelly. But everybody's quoting the run pass option. And everybody's quoting Nick Foles's 27 and 2 season and the run pass option. Yes. And so like these run pass options just didn't, this has been the Chip Kelly thing going on for a long time here now. Yeah, but the conversation now is obviously everyone wants to talk about it. And I just want to break down what they do with this run pass option. So basically they're in a situation with Nick Foles. And you talk about Tom, possession and them keeping the ball with that eagle's offense. They are running these plays where they have, with the run-pass option, they have a run that's designed to go to the left side of the field or the weak side of the field, and then they have these three receivers on the right side. So Nick Foles has a decision every single time. Whatever decision he makes is right, especially against his own. So if he hands the ball off to J.J.J.

And he runs to the left side against nine yards, he's right. If he keeps the ball and throws it out to the outside to Matt Collins, he's right. Whatever it is, he's going to be right in the situation. But the thing that Bill Belichick and his defense will probably do, what most likely do is go man against us, right? Well, they will. But, you know, when you're in that – so let's go back to the beginning of premise. Okay, so when teams get into this three-by-one formation

where they basically put a tight end away from the three receivers and they kind of bunch the receivers, they're really trying to get the defense to declare the coverage. It's what happens in college because of the hash mark so much, is three-by-one really forces you to declare in a tight split with the backside. So what's going to happen is I think the game that's probably going to be the most relevant game for understanding what the Patriots are going to do in the game is the Saints game. The Saints play the Eagles with Chip Kelly in a playoff game in Philadelphia. Okay, Rob Ryan was the defensive coordinator.

He was there, and he really did a nice job of shutting down these RPO's because what he did was he made his defensive ends turn the ball back inside. They didn't really play anybody. With foals, you do not have to play the quarterback run. Part of RPO's is I'm either going to hand it off. I might keep it. I'm reading the guy or I'm going to throw it, right? So he reads that. And so if the ball, if the ends take an outside approach and turn it back inside, you can't give the ball to a jive.

And I think the Patriots are going to take this approach because they don't believe, or I'm not saying, I'm not speaking for them. But it's really clear on the tape that the Eagles are not going to win the game with their tight ends blocking. And that's not what they do. Their tight ends are not blocked. They're receivers. They make plays in the passing game. And so they're going to do that. And now when you get into this man game, is he going to read it or is he going to let it go?

If the ball is being moved, okay, if the linebackers know the edge is set, okay, then they can quickly move and break on some of those underneath throws on those RPIs, especially if they're a manned coverage. So there's going to be a bunch of chess match. They're going to zone it off. They're going to man it off. The one thing you're not going to be able to do is be able to predict. what the coverage is when they get in the three-by-one. There's going to be a three-by-one adjustment to the defense from the Patriots, and it's going to be where the back is, who the back is, and how they do it.

I think this is a huge game for Kyle Van Nuoy. I think it's a huge game for Landon Roberts in terms of communication. They have to communicate, and that's how you defend the RPO's through great communication. They're going to cover up the inside of the Eagle offensive line, force the edges back inside, and then communicate on all those passes. Will they catch a few? Yeah, but look, let's face it, these RPOs have been in business for four years. Like, they're not just, they're not unstoppable, people get a feel for it.

And can you make a living running on them for, running on the entire game? I think it becomes harder and harder as the game goes on. Absolutely. And we should say, I mean, a lot of people, when they've talked about this situation with Nick Foles, I mean, they've called these passes and these plays crutches for him as a quarterback. But looking at his two playoff games, just his two playoff performances, he's completing 77.8% of his passes, nearly 300 yards passing per game. And this is your favorite stat. He has averaged 9.5 yards per pass attempt in those two games. And I'll take it even further.

He's only thrown three incompletions on third down in the entire playoffs, which is remarkable, okay? And three of his 25-plus-yard gains have happened on third down. So, again, like Carson-Wins-like. Very Carson-Wins-like. This third-down stuff, I mean, like I've said all season long about the Eagle offense, they are not a rhythmic, oh, my God, are they just a machine. They're not this army marching down. They are bad, bad, oh my God, bad, bad, oh my God. You know, and that's not taking anything away from.

They truly represent battleship football. They are truly an offense that is constantly looking for a play here, play there. They're not a rhythm. I'm not saying that in a bad way at all. I think the future of football is kind of like what they're doing because they utilize all these players in my book. I'm on the last chapter, Tate Fraser, and I'm writing about what the future of football

will look like. So, you know, the future football is going to look a little bit like, in my mind, it'll be a little single wingish, which will be, you know, when the single wing was first invented, it was the quarterback ran the ball. There was unbalanced formations. There was all this kind of different stuff. The Eagles offense is very similar to the futuristic of football because it's unpredictable. But what I think you're going to see as we go further into football is you're going to see positions aren't going to matter. The five offensive linemen, they're always going to be the same. But where the Eagles have generated this hard to defend is because their tight ends are really receivers.

Their receivers are really runners. The runners are really receivers. So there's really just skill players. Don't even call them wide receivers. Don't call them tight ends. Yeah, Cory Coleman is a receiver. He's a receiver. They're all just skill players.

They're all multiple type of players, except for Blunt. Blunt's really the only guy. He's not going to run a wheel round, right? There's no duplicity. There's not. With him, it's power inside. he's going to run the outside zone, and that's it. That's what he does.

If he catches a checkdown, it's going to be. So the Patriots now have to set their defense according to that. And one of the things that scares you in this situation is the wheel route. It's what the Saints do all the time. It's when the backs offset away from the three by one to the tight end side. There's got to be a wheel alert because this is where the Patriots are in trouble because they can't really cover a jai. They don't have a linebacker with that kind of a coverage ability. They got to play the play.

And I think that's why this makes them so dangerous is because they are a little bit like the future of football because their skill players really don't have a position. You could call Zach Ertzoff, tight end, great. Send him the pro bowl as a tight end. He ain't a tight end. He's really a skill player, highly skilled player at tight end. Same with Trey Burton. Trey Burton could be a quarterback. I mean, he can do everything.

And I think that's with the future of football. Like, could you imagine the game if Deshawn Watson, if say the Texans had two Deshawn Watson's. So one time he's the quarterback, one time he's the receiver, one time, you know, can you imagine that kind of game? Now, it would take a lot of creativity by the offensive coordinator to do it. It couldn't be, but traditional offenses are easier to stop than the untraditional. The left-handed way the Eagles play offense is why I think that's what gives them the advantage in the game. And let's talk about a traditional offense that is, you know, overtime has changed and adapted and added in some new things. And that is Tom Brady and this Patriots offense with Josh McDaniels.

We obviously see a lot of, you know, James White last year in the Super Bowl. I mean, it's a perfect example of how they utilize their running backs in the passing game. You know, we had three touchdowns last year. Dionne Lewis is a guy that would be involved in a lot. Obviously, Danny Amandola, or as Danny as he is referred to now these days, they have a lot of options on that Patriot's offense, but they're going to stick down to what they know, which is Tom Brady is going to put us in a position to win this game.

Is there anything that you're watching in particular with Brady in that offense? Well, I think a couple things. I think first of all, I'm sure Belichick is probably, you know, because this is what he does. He always operates from the inversion factor, which is what can't we do to win. We can't turn the ball over. Like punning the ball in this game will not lose the game for the Patriots. Turning the ball over will. So he's going to want to do that.

He's going to look at the games like Carolina. Carolina had the right idea against the Eagles early in the season whence. They scored 23 points. It was a close game. They held the ball 31 minutes. They made this Eagle defense play longer plays. They just turned the ball over, which caused the problem, and that's why they lost. And when you go back and study the games that the Eagles played close games in, it usually came down to the offense turning the ball over.

They didn't play a lot of close games. I mean, eight of their wins are by double-digit by 20 points or more. Ten of them are by eight or more points. So they've dominated the level of competition. The key is going to be, can the Patriots offense play this pace, pay this style, don't turn the ball over, and play to their strength. Dionne Lewis will be their strength. They're going to have to handle the outside receivers

are going to have to win on certain routes, and Brady's going to have to do the best job of ever of protecting the ball. Because one thing Brady knows, if he doesn't turn the ball over, it's hard for their defense to get turnovers. The only way the Patriots might get a turnover in this game is if Elliott misses a field goal.

That's probably going to be their turnover, because they haven't turned the ball over in the playoffs. They don't turn the ball over. So that to me is going to be the key is don't turn this thing over, don't make it a 50-pass game, and find the right pace. That's what the Patriots offense needs to do. And a lot of things with pace obviously comes down to the running game. I just have a couple of stats. I want to throw out there.

The Eagles are 12 and 1 this season when the team rushes for over 100 yards, right? And the Patriots, since Week 16, they're allowing just 72.5 yards per game at 3.2 a carry. So that's really the matchup. But they're able to keep the Eagles run game from getting downhill. and getting a, you know, Jha Jai going, then maybe they have a chance. The key is going to be they're going to play what we call the bare front. They're going to cover up both the center of the guard. The key player that I believe the Patriots will attack is the center for the Eagles Kelsey.

I think Kelsey is the guy you have to win against. I think Kelsey is what you have to, you have to put a power guy in front of them. I think you've got to push him back. I think you've got to make it very difficult for him to get on the second level. You've got to make him play constantly under pressure. It's like a long snapper until they change the rules. You know, people would always put a guy over, make the long snapper constantly have to make great snaps when he had a punt. Same thing here for the Eagles.

I think the Patriots are going to have to put somebody over Kelsey and make him dumb and make him have to feel like he's got to play his best game of the year. And that, if they do that, that'll help them defend the run. I think the Patriots are, that's what the Patriots are going in this game saying. The Patriots are going on this game saying, we're playing players, not plays. Okay? We're playing players, not plays. All right? So if a Gai's in the game, we have to stop these things. If when Ertz is here, we have to stop this. There are certain things they have to stop.

And I think the number one thing is making sure a guy doesn't get going, making sure they don't give the ball thrown over their head. And then whenever it's a got to have it play, get all over Earths. Absolutely. We're going to do our predictions, right, at the end of this. Before we do that, I just want to run through some props. We'll have a little bit of fun. And then we'll give our final Super Bowl predictions before Sunday's final game. First up, we're talking about National Anthem right now, National Anthem Prop bets. The first one I want to give you to see what you think about this.

Will Pink, the artist Pink, just performed with the Grammys, forget or omit a word of the national anthem. I can't even imagine she would do that. Like, I can't even imagine that. Like, how could she do that? I don't know. Yes is plus 300, so that's, you know, and then no is minus 500. So if you really think Pink knows the National Anthem,

you just bet no and bet a lot because you'll still get some sort of payment out of that. Another one. Will Al Michaels or Chris Collinsworth say Dynasty? It's over 2.5 minus 130 under 2.5 plus 100. I will say that Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth will say dynasty three times before halftime. They're going to say it a lot. Well, he's going to do it in the opening.

The word's going to be in the opening montage. There's actually a show called Dynasty, so I was hoping there might be like a Fox promo, you know, and they have to bring up Dynasty. I might bet the under there. I mean, once you say it once, how can you go back to that word again? Isn't that why they have that thing called grammatica where they say, you need to use a different word, I would go the under there.

Yeah, you're going to go under. I like it. How many commercials will Peyton Manning, the great quarterback now, the star of nationwide, appear in during the broadcast, over two and a half, you risk 115 and 100,

under 2.5, risk 115 to 1,100. Peyton Manning, we're going to see a lot of Peyton Manning, you think? I mean, obviously, so basically we see him three times. He's going to be, is it the same nationwide commercial?

We're going to get him in a nationwide commercial. We know that. We know we're not going to get him in Papa Johns. He's out of there, so we're not going to get Papa Johns. You've got to think maybe he's in an Anheiser Bush commercial, maybe he's in a Taco Bell commercial, maybe he's in a Monday night football promo that they put in. I'm going over there. You're going over there. I'm going over there. I like it. I mean, you know, you know, the man Bill Belichick. What color will Bill Belichick shirt be a kickoff? Blue 4 to 5, gray 3 to 2, red 15 to 2, white 15 to 2. What do you think

Bill Belichick's going to wear? I think he's going to wear blue. But I don't think Last time he was in the Super Bowl, I found Fassaday, nobody talked about last year. Nobody really talked about. He didn't wear a shirt with nothing on it. Like it didn't say Patriots. It didn't say anything. Like he wore it like it was like he just got it at Phileen's discount basement store. You know, like it was just a blue or, you know, it wasn't.

He will not wear, I don't think he'll wear a hoodie or something that can be. He's classing it up. I mean, like, yeah, but I'm not sure he's going to wear something that they can sell. Uh-huh. Like, I got to go get me. Bill Belichick hoodie, you know, people buy those. He doesn't want any merchandise. Yeah, I don't think that's like, you know, I'm not sure that that's what they would do.

I think you should dress up old school. I definitely don't think. I don't think white's going to be in play here. Red is definitely not going to be in play. White's superior, yeah, reds is what Patricia wears. Yeah. And that would confuse the players. So to me, I think it's going to be blue.

And blue's four to five. I like it. That's the favorite. Also, we have another Bill Belichick one. Will Bill Belichick announce retirement after the game must be shown on the broadcast? So that means not only does it have to have to have. happen like it gets leaked out as a press release. He must say it on the broadcast. I retire. He is one of the greatest secret keepers of all time. I mean, you literally, he's not ask him three

times and he'll tell you the answer. Like, that's not how it does it. I mean, he's not Will Fowowell. I asked me three times, right? Damn, three times. He's not that guy. He keeps a secret better than any human being I've ever met in my life. I would be shocked if he upstaged the importance of the game with a personal announcement. Yes. That's not Bill Belich. I don't see that happening either. And no is minus 5,000.

Yes is plus $2,500. You got to bet $5,000 to win $100? Come on. Even Saul wouldn't make that back. Yeah, I don't think so. I hope not. If he does, we manage to check on him. In-game props that we have here,

will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half? Yes. Yes, minus 300, no, plus 240. You say yes? That's pretty much a given. I mean, first of all, this team, the Eagles go for it on 27 times on fourth down, right? Their field goal kicker, Elliot, has made some long field goals on grass outdoors. I mean, you remember he made the 61-yarderback that really ended up winning the game for him.

And in a dome. I mean, he can make it from 70. God only knows how. And same thing with Stephen Gaskowski. He can make them far. So I think there's going to be some points exchanged here. And those will be the points. I mean, look, the Falcons lose their game. When you break it down, the Falcons lose that game because they couldn't catch the ball at the end of the half.

And that kid made that long field goal. Yep, that's all it comes down to. Some more in-game stuff. Will there be a two-point conversion? This is some of the Patriots obviously love to do, and that is yes, plus 250 and no minus 3-10. I definitely think there will be, and I think the Eagles, if they score first, we'll go for two.

I think the one thing the Eagles, and this is what I would be saying if I was working for the Patriots, the Eagles lost to Seattle. After that Seattle game, if you go back and read the clips and you read the commentary of what Peterson said after the game, It was probably one of the few times all year that he wasn't very, that he threw caution to the wind. He played a normal right-handed style. He managed that game.

Okay, didn't go for it on fourth and one when he crossed midfield. He was a little bit, I don't want to use the word nervous. Yes, thank you, Valo, Victoria. And he was cautious. And I don't, I think in this game. It was the first time that if you'd been watching the Eagles all season, you felt that they felt the pressure of being the one seed. Right. I think at the Seattle game, when they played in Seattle, I think the moment was big for them, and they played it more traditional.

I think they're not going to play it at traditional law. I think their attitude is, look, we got our backup quarterback. We got this. We're riding high. We're the underdogs. We're the underdog, and we're going to do everything we can to prove it to you. And if we get up 28 to 3, like the Falcons did, we're going to keep trying to score. And speaking of not playing in a traditional fashion, this is not even on our props list right here.

But one of my favorite ones of the weekend is, will there be a flea flicker in this game? And it's plus 350 to get that one. Will there be a flea flicker? Lock it down. I think it might be on the first drive of the game. I think if the Eagles win it, I think they'll go flea flicker. I think they'll do something. Because look, the Eagles understand, again, most important stat in football, it will not be talked about at all during the game

because nobody really pays attention to what the most important stat of football is. It's the first half-point differential. And the Eagles are two and the Patriots are one in that stat. So both teams want to play from in front. And I can promise you, the coin toss is going to be critical because I believe both teams would defer because they want to finish and go strong. But more than anything, both teams, when they get the ball, they want to score initially. And I think the best time to do it is early in the game, run that flea flicker, kind of do something. Okay.

And once you run a flea flicker once, it's a little bit like you run a screen. It gets in your head. Well, when you run a screen, nobody expects you to run a screen the next play, right? Oh, they're just trying to screen. They're not going to run another screen, right? Same thing with a flea flicker. You run a flea flicker early. Well, they've already run their trick play.

They're done? No, no, no. I bet the Eagles have about 20 trick plays going in this game. Seriously. Because that's the Eagles. Again, think of the Eagles. Again, no disrespect. Eagles are left-handed.

They're not a normal, hey, like, if we brought five defensive coordinators into our studio here today in the National Football League and said, okay, define the Eagles. Leslie Frazier is sitting over in the corner right now. Define the Eagles. He really, like, it's not, RPO's, blah, blah, blah. There's no, no, define Jacksonville. Yeah, you got to stop the run. You got to stop Fournet.

You can't let Fournet beat you. Okay. The Eagles, they're all over the place. That makes them left-handed. You can't really define them. They're undefinable. They're players, not plays. And when your players not plays, then you're harder to define.

And we should say, Danny and Dola, obviously, threw a pass last week for the Patriots. So there's another bet. Total number of players to have a passing intent, the over two and a half, which means one other person would have a throw. That counts both teams? Yeah, the plus 170. I would bet the under there. Oh, you bet the under? Yeah, just one from each team.

Now, where it happens more than ever, and this is important, and you better make sure you do your homework, is who throws left-handed. Remember, the Eagles are the best Red Zone team in football. Okay, so this is really why they're so successful. When they get it down there, they get points. Most of the time, they get touchdowns. I mean, and especially, they're really good on third down. Third-down red zone, four-point plays, the Eagles are outstanding in that area. And if you have a left-handed thrower like Keith Byers was in the Great Philadelphia Eagle teams, those plays, you got to know that because the guy will throw the ball left-handed.

And that catches defenses. I don't care. Keith Byers, everybody knew he's left-handed, right? He still was able to do it. If you run to the right, people play the play. If you run it to the left, people don't because not very many people are left-handed. I think you'll see two passes by that. And I think it'll be in the red zone.

I think those are the plays. Yep, absolutely. All right. So the final moment, the big moment that we've all been waiting for, predictions for the Super Bowl. Bowl, Super Bowl 52, we are here, we are ready. And Mike Lombardi, what is your prediction? Well, you know, after the conference championship game, I came on GM Street. We talked about it and I said, I was going to pick the Eagles and I'm going to stay with that. I'm going to go 2320. I think it'll be a really close game. I think it'll be a really good game. If I'm an Eagle fan,

I would want to make sure that I had the ball last in this game and I was able to do it that way. I would not want Brady to have the ball last in the game. But I think the Eagles 23-20 think it would be a really close game. You, Tate Frazier? I would love to see that happen just for the sheer fact that it would be such an upset and a shocker. Why would it be an upset? Everybody, there's a lot of people playing. Yeah, I think that's now the sexy pick to do that.

But we all have to understand that we are here. And the only person that is able to thwart the great Tom Brady and the Patriots and this whole dynasty has been Eli Manning. I don't want to lose that. I like that Eli is the only one to do that. because it's funny to me that that's the only time that ever happened. I don't want the Eagles to steal that. So I'm going to go, Patriots win. They're going to be down 27-24.

They're going to be driving down late in this game. And you think they're going to be going for a field goal. No, Tom Brady time, score a touchdown, win the game. 30 to 28. If they have to kick the extra point, it might be at the last second so they don't have to. 30, 28, 31, 28, whatever it is. I think the Patriots get a game-winning touchdown. Tom Brady walks off, celebrates, and he tells us he's going to play to his 75.

So we both agree that if you take the eagle, and the points you'll win. Yes. Okay. Yes. Based on the line, take the Eagles, but based on the actual result of the game.

It's always funny when people quote the, you know, if Brady throws a better pass or maybe if Welker catches it down the seam in that game, the Patriots win that game. If Asante Samuel catches the interception for all the greatness that Elam, and the kid had it right in his hands,

the Patriots win that game. But look, the Patriots close game against Carolina. last week, 28 to 3, Malcolm Butler intercepts the ball at the goal line. You know, so they have always played in close Super Bowl games. I mean, the only time they've been up by 10 is against the Eagles in 04 in Jacksonville, and Andy Reid went into his four-minute offense. It took them six minutes to score, you know, before he could come back in the game. So I think this will be a really close game, and I think it'll come down to the fourth quarter.

And we will be here Sunday, Tate Frazier live, right? I was going to plug us. We're going to be here. You do it. Sunday night, GM Street. we've been doing this all season. We appreciate everyone that's listened and tuned in. We will do this. This is the first one that we will

do live on video as we record it. It will be live on YouTube, live on Twitter, live on Facebook, live on any sort of platform that they can do live on. But basically, me and Michael Lombardi in will watch the second half of the Super Bowl at the studio. So please tune in, rapid reactions. We appreciate everyone listening this whole year. This has been a fun run of

GM Street, Mike Lombardi. I'm going to miss you when this is all done. Three times a week has been a long time. I got a lot of tape Frasier. Speaking of one more, should I go see hostels? Yes. Yes, you should. Great movie. Rosamund Pike, Christian Bell. Should I go see the Phantom Thread? I haven't seen it. So I can't get it. Paul Thomas Anderson was on the Bill Simmons podcast. He was a very nice guy. I'm a big fan of Boogie Nights. I don't know if Phantom Thread's right up my alley, but it's a little out there. All right. We'll talk Sunday. Tony Peas for me. A little plug for Tony Peas. I'm going to watch the first half over there. Thanks, Tony P.

And I'm going to meet you there after I weigh in. and Harry to see if he did this for against all odds, see if he lost the 52 pounds, and then I'll drive up, see Michael Lombardi, see Tony P, and then we'll head to the studio, and we'll get recording. So this has been GM Street, part of the Ringer Podcast Network.

I am Tate Frazier. That is Mike Lombardi. We will see you Sunday night. Thanks, Tate, Frasier.