The Ringer NFL Show - Key Week 1 Matchups and Our Daily Fantasy Lineup | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: September 6, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck highlight the key fantasy matchups to take advantage of heading into Week 1 (3:30), before crafting their daily fantasy lineup of the week (23:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode of the Ringer NFL show is brought to you by CBS Sports HQ. If you follow the pod, you know we love analysis and information. We don't yell at each other. We don't throw out hot takes, except about Carlos Hyde. We don't beat the same topics into the ground. That's how CBS Sports HQ does things too. It's a sports network that streams live 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they're focused on bringing you the latest news, highlights, stats, game previews, game reactions, fantasy advice, and gambling picks.

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Players have been celebrating touchdowns more than ever. But you know what I want to see? I want kickers and punters to celebrate. Imagine a kicker nailing an extra point. The kicker celebrates by taking his cleats off, putting them on his hands, does a handstand, begins to tap dance, runs on his hands toward the long snapper, and hands the long snapper, a pack of skittles. The long snapper then snaps a single skittles to the kicker,

flicks the skittles through the uprights. That's what I want to see. Skittles. Podcast the rainbow. Taste the rainbow. Welcome to the Dynasty Football Podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network. My name is Danny Hyfitz, and I am joined as always by my co-host, my co-Dany, the hero we need, the fantasy analyst we deserve. Danny Kelly, the Dark Night, DK.

Are you ready for some football? Man, I'm so ready. It's like Christmas Eve right now. It's really exciting. We're recording this on Thursday a couple hours before the big game tonight. It is 1.20 p.m. Pacific. It is exactly four hours until kickoff. Yeah.

We're torque, D.K. This is incredible. We just did six weeks. of preseason mode. We are now in in-season mode. Every Friday we will be coming at you, previewing the weekend's games with Daily Fantasy, but we'll be talking about plenty of real football too,

so it's fun for the whole family. You know what? Who else is fun for the whole family? Craig Horlebeck, our beloved producers, here with us. How are you, Craig? I'm great. I'm feeling good because, you know what, I don't have any losses yet in fantasy, so it's all downhill from here. That's also how all the real NFL teams feel. Everything's good and optimistic, and then you start losing, and it sucks. How good do your lineups feel?

prior to the season actually starting. Well, I mean, full disclosure, we did the ringer fantasy football draft last night, and you weren't had the last pick. We had the 11th pick, so we were bookending you, and we thought we'd take all your players. And then, no, it turned out Robert Mays, who had the 10th pick, stole both of all of our players.

He kept sniping. Dude, no offense to Mays, but, like, he sucks. That wasn't so annoying. Every other round, he took exactly the player we were like, we were discussing. Craig and I have a team. He can draft. That man, Robert Mays, can draft a football team.

Really annoying. And then your pair, You're paired with Jackson Safan, who's one of our video producers here, and then we thought we'd crush you and annoy you. And turn out, Mays annoyed both of us. So, Mays. You did snipe in the most predictable move of all time. You sniped Fournet from me.

Yeah, you. Oh, yeah. We'll be getting to Leonard Fornett later in this episode. We had to. It's my brand. So we're going to be filling out our own Draft Kings lineup. The three of us are going to, well, we have agreed on a draft lineup, and we're going to reveal that at the end.

But first, we're going to run through three matchups from this one. weekend that we feel are really exploitable and really are going to have some unique game scripts and are going to be easy to really exploit for terms of daily fantasy. So we're going to run through those three games. And dude, football's back. This is great. So, D.K., what's the game that you're looking at from a daily fantasy perspective? We'll be doing our lineup on Draft Kings, but wherever you play your daily fantasy

that you think can really pay dividends for daily fantasy owners this week? So this is actually, it feels really backwards in terms of logic. But I like this Bengals Seahawks matchup in Seattle. The over-under, it's not typically like, typically you're looking for tons of offense and tons of points scoring. The over-under is only 44 right now. But just the way these two offenses are set up right now with the injuries and everything that's going on on these two specific teams,

I think there's some good values in, you know, just the lineups. Like, obviously we're going to get to, We're going to get to specific guys, but like Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett. So basically what I'm looking at, you know, I think the Seahawks are probably going to win this game. They're favored by nine and a half. The Bengals last year had the 28th ranked defense by DVOA. Their offense is really banged up. The Bengals is.

And I think that Seattle's going to probably control the game. So a couple guys that I really like in this game, Chris Carson specifically, I think that's a juicy matchup for him just because I think the Seahawks are going to, quote, like, it's such a cliche, but they are absolutely going to try and establish the run. If you remember last year, Seattle came out really pass-heavy. They ended up kind of having to have like a come-to-Jesus moment after a week two, and they had to like rededicate themselves to the run and all this stuff. I don't see them doing that again this year.

I think they will come out and try and, you know, enforce what they want to do on offense, which is run the football. And I think Chris Carson is going to be their lead guy there. and like I said, the Bengals defense hasn't been great. It wasn't great last year. They didn't do a ton to improve it this year. They gave up the most passing yards in the NFL,

Cincinnati's defense did. Yeah, I think Carson right now is looking like a really good value. I mean, he's $5,700 on draft kings. And so I think he's a guy that you can really target to have sort of like outplay that price right now. And so expect the Seahawks to, you know, do a real, like, strong ground and pound type offense this week. But that being said, I think Tyler Lockett is also a good value.

Right now, he is $6,000 on draft king. And so with the Seahawks, what they do on offense, obviously they want to run the football, but it's married to play action. They were very, very explosive passing offense last year. You don't really think about them as an explosive passing offense because they don't pass a ton. But they did throw the ball deep a ton last year. And so I think Lockett, number one, has that touchdown upside as the deep threat. I think he's going to run out of the slot a little bit more.

which gives him a good floor, you know, just in PPR, because I think basically he's the guy in the Seahawks offense. Now, Doug Baldwin retired. David Moore is injured with a shoulder injury. D.K. Metcalf is just coming off an injury. Then they got like John Ursua, Gary Jennings and Geron Brown. I don't know who exactly is going to emerge as like the other guys in this passing offense. But Tyler Lockett is the one, you know, he's the guy.

I think he's going to just be a target hog in this offense. So those two guys that I think Lockhe is. I think Lockett has a good floor and ceiling. The Bengals gave up the fifth most passing touchdowns last year, and Lockett was tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the entire league. So I like that one. And then also obviously the Seahawks are going to crush the Bengals in this one. They're favored by a lot.

You, the pessimistic Seahawks fan here think that it'll be a close game, even though I think you're kind of delusional. Well, just classic hedging out of a fan. I don't necessarily think they're going to lose, but the Seahawks just love to slow the ball down. So the game down, I should say, they play everything so close to their best all the time. and I've just been conditioned over the years

to expect it to be like a 10 to 9 game in the fourth quarter. I don't necessarily think that's going to be the case this week. Sure, but like the Bengals already lost left tackle Jonah Williams and then Cordy Glenn, who they shifted from right to left tackles, also not going to play in this game. So I think the Seahawks are going to get to an enormous lead and then run the ball with Chris Carson down, the Bengals' throat for the entire second half.

Bottom line is since I'm putting this game in like as a good target, you know, for finding value, I do think these specific players will get plenty of fantasy volume, even if it's not going to be like a shootout type game. This is the slot game. Both slot guys, we love them. Absolutely. And then on the other side of the ball.

Yeah, other side of the ball, I think Tyler Boyd is a great target for DFS. Just because, again, like the Seahawks, there's no one else in that offense right now. I mean, you got Damien Willis starting out on one side for AJ Green. I don't even really, I never heard of that guy really before like two weeks ago. Apparently he's starting. And then John Ross, who has just had a disastrous start to his career, I guess, is the other guy across him. Also, dealing with a hamstring injury again. Can I note that in the Google Doc next to John Ross's name, somebody put a parentheses and then LOL?

That was me. I do want to just quickly note, again, that AJ Green suffered his ankle injury on the first practice of the Bengals training camp, which was played on a field in Dayton, Ohio, instead of their regular one, because it was where the first NFL game was played 100 years ago as part of the NFL's 100th anniversary celebration. And then afterward, I believe it was Tyler Boyd, who said that the field was like pebbles and dirt,

and they should have never been playing there. And that is why Age Green is hurt for this game in the first month of the season. So that's horrible and crazy to think about. But that is why Boyd is going to get so many targets is because with Green Down, Tyler Eiffords perpetually hurt. that there's just really no one other than Boyd who's a reliable pass catcher downfield.

Yeah, and the other variable to think about here is the Seahawks, their slot corner from last year, Justin Coleman, is now a lion, one of the highest-paid slot cornerbacks in the NFL, in fact. And so now the Seahawks are kind of, they've got a real big sort of question mark at that spot going forward. They traded for Perry Nickerson from the Jets during cut-down weekend. He has no experience with this defense. Obviously, I think the Seahawks are optimistic about him, but there's just a huge, huge question mark there.

So I think overall Boyd at he, right now he's 5,800 on draft Kings, and I think that's a very good value too, just because especially in this PPR format where he's just going to get, I wouldn't be surprised if he got like 10 targets at least. So to me, that's a good value. I love that one a lot. Love me some Tyler Boyd. Another game we wanted to look at was 49ers bucks.

This is fascinating, and not just because it's like, with like a red and kind of like similar color schemes. So one just weird fact, it's going to be 88 degrees with no precipitation. So there was early talk like a week ago that this game might have to be moved or even possibly canceled for the hurricane, but it seems like it won't even rain there. So that's good news. That's always good for passing game, obviously. If it's going to be like slippery and slidy and rainy and crappy like that, you kind of

want to tend to avoid those games unless you're talking about a running back. So in this one, I can see a lot of offense happening. The over-under is 51. Tampa Bay is favored by just one. So it's going to be, to me, that tells the story of like it's going to be a back-and-forth kind of game. I'm really looking forward to seeing what the Buccaneers offense looks like in that no-riskit, no-Biscuit Aryan's offense. Under James Winston, who's always been very, very aggressive as a passer, obviously the two guys on the outside for, well, not on the outside. The two guys downfield for Tampa Bay and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have the potential to just absolutely go off this year,

especially against a 49ers defense that was bad last year. And I think there's a lot of question marks going forward. Their defensive line definitely got better. So that's something to watch. But I just don't know what to think about that. Secondary, is Richard Sherman going to follow anybody? I think that's still up in the air. So I think Godwin and Evans are both really interesting this week against 49ers defense.

Yeah, I do want to elaborate on the Niners defense for a second. They had two interceptions last year, which is the fewest the team has had since World War II, which is incredible. And then the Niners didn't add anybody to their secondary, except Jason Verrett, who is talented but kind of known for never being healthy. And then he got hurt very quickly in a training camp and is not going to play. Certainly in week one. So they don't really add anyone.

They actually lost Jimmy Ward one of their better safeties and to a collarbone injury. He might play in week one, but he's certainly not 100% right now. And then their strategy was that we'll break this record interception drought by adding to a defensive line and creating more pass rush havoc. So they drafted Nick Bosa and they traded for D. Ford, but then they both got hurt in training camp.

So Nick Bosa has an ankle sprain that he's still dealing with. D. Ford is knee tendonitis. Now, they still might both play in week one, but neither of them is 100%. So this is probably... They're hobbling into Tampa Bay, yeah. Yes, exactly. So the Bucks, everything about the Bucks' offense, people have been so giddy about this offseason.

Going against the Niners defense that's banged up is tasty. Yeah. On the other side... Yeah, flipping that for a second. Talk about the Niners' offense, Taney. Well, so the Niners, this is weird because the Buc's defense was one of the worst defenses in the entire league last year. They gave up the seventh-most yards, the third-most passing touchdowns.

I mean, the first half of the year, they were even worse, believe it or not. And another team that didn't really get that much better on defense, they tried signing Jason Pierre-Paul, but he's not healthy from an off-season injury suffered off the field. Their secondary is really young. Extremely young. They have a lot of young draft picks that make up all their cornerbacks and safeties, and they're not good.

Now, normally, this is like a supercharged turbo. factor for any offense facing them, especially for the Niners. The issue is that the Niners' offenses looked really bad and is also just as an experience. It's wow, this is probably the least experienced secondary in football against the least experience receiving core in football. George Kittles, their true number one at tight end. But after that, they have Dante Pettis, who's a second year player.

They have like Debo Samuel, who's a rookie. They have Morkees Goodwin who's like the grizzled veteran of this group. He's like 27 years old. Like most of these people were barely sentient when like big and, Tupac died. Like, it's crazy. So you have Jimmy looking terrible in the preseason. He threw five interceptions in a row in practice.

He went one for six in a preseason. I don't hold a lot of stock into anything you do in preseason or even a few clips from training camp. But they also have a lot of injuries along the offensive line. Both their guards are kind of injured. Like, their line isn't great to begin with, and they're not healthy. Their receivers aren't even completely healthy with Trent Taylor and people. Like, there's just a lot going wrong here. Jimmy doesn't seem 100% back from this ACL.

there's just a lot going on here that is, if the Niners could shred the bucks, it wouldn't be shocking. But I'm also not, I don't actually like the idea of a Niners stacking your DFS lineup with them this week. Because I don't know, I feel like they won't actually be able to take advantage of the bucks this week. So who do you like that often? It's just Kittle, basically, right now? I like Kittl because he'll get his. And the issue with Dante Pettis is he's de facto should be their number one. But the issue with him is Kyle Shanahan keeps repeating, I don't know if Dante Pettis is our number one.

And San Francisco beat reporters are just like, honestly, we don't know if he's trying to let a fire under him or he actually just won't be their number one guy. So that's a bizarre thing to come out of your team two weeks before the season. He's also been battling a groin injury. I've got a lot of pettis. I was like really on the Pettus hype train over the summer. And so he's a tough one. I'm ultimately going to be starting him in most of the leagues that I have him. but it makes me a little bit nervous.

That said, I think this matchup with a, what should be a pretty bad Buccaneers defense, I think is good overall for the Niners, volume-wise anyway. All right, let's get to the third game. This is the third matchup we really are interested in this week. This is Detroit versus Arizona, the introduction of Cliff Kingsbury

and whatever the hell this air raid offense is going to be with Kyler Murray going against Detroit. By the way, a little aside, did we pick the three most boring games in the whole slate probably, just football-wise. Yeah, but that's unfortunately, fantasy's not real football. You know how like, look, when you drafted fantasy football, sometimes you want players that aren't exciting.

They're kind of boring and bad. Same with DFS, man. This is why, like, my dad gets mad at me, and he's like, you don't even watch real football. You just care about players. And I'm like, yeah, I guess you're right now. I would argue that maybe the most interesting team of the whole week is this Arizona offense. Yeah, that's true.

And then also, that's very true. And then also part of what we're going to discuss right now is part of the discussion of the Arizona Cardinals team is what that offense will do to its defense. So, D.K., do you want to elaborate a little bit on how this fast-paced shoot-em-up offense that the Cardinals are going to run might impact their defense? Yeah, I mean, going into this season, there might not be like a more shallow defense than the Cardinals right now. They're going to be, especially in the secondary where they're playing without Patrick Peterson who was suspended for the first, what was it, four games, five games. And then Robert Alford Six? Okay. Robert Alford, who's on the injured reserve,

that leaves Byron Murphy in. I presumably, Tremaine Brock, a veteran, as the options at the cornerback position. So, you know, front to back, they're just not very good. They're starting probably going to have to start Zach Allen, a rookie at D-end. Terrell Suggs is going to have to be an impact player for him.

So ultimately, with the combined with sort of the philosophy that they want to do on offense where it's like hurry up tempo you know run a ton of plays the defense is going to be bad which I think is going to lead to more shootout potential overall I just think yeah it's going to be I think that they're going to be playing from

behind and I think they're going to be running a ton of plays the I guess the returns from from the preseason were very uncertain when it comes to like what we're going to see from this offense then I don't know if they really showed us really anything that they're going to do, to be honest. Cliff Kingsbury is not bringing Chip Kelly's offense to the Cardinals,

but the one thing they certainly have in common they're bringing from college is tempo and fast-paced. And famously, I mean, Chip Kelly's demise in Philadelphia was almost more about what happened to the locker room and everything there. His like attempts to be a GM or whatever. Exactly. And just general chemistry issues of these players. But the on-field problem was that the offense was on the field for so little that the defense was getting. exhausted. And it's amazing how different it can be when a defense plays 28

minutes versus 35 minutes on the field. And then the more tired they are, the easier it is for the offense, and it's kind of the spiral effect. And that could be really the case of this Cardinals' even if it works, their defense could be on the field a lot if their pace. But if it doesn't work and they're throwing a lot, keeping the

like, they're stopping the clock, and then their defense is having to go out there. I mean, if this Cardinals' offense, I mean, it can't possibly worse than last year. But if they're on the field a lot on defense, and they're also down to like third string rookie cornerbacks. That could be really bad for the Cardinals. And that translates to a boost for like Kenny Galladay and Marvin Jones in particular.

Gulladay right now is 6300 on Draft Kings. Marvin Jones is 4,800. I think both of those guys are looking like pretty solid values this week in particular. I actually am a little bit more bullish on Matt Stafford than probably a lot of people are. I was going to say real quick, do you think Golladay and Jones are one, two in Detroit's offense as the receivers or 1A and 1B? It's probably closer to 1A and 1B, honestly. I think Jones is being slept on right now.

I think people are kind of forgetting, you know, just how good he is. He was injured for a big part of last season. Goladay has, you know, he's got that really scintillating upside and he's tall and fast and all that. Like, people are really excited about him. But Marvin Jones is sort of just like this boring veteran, but he's really good, too. You know what I mean? So, yeah, I think it's close.

sort of one A and one B. I think the Beville offense, even though it's going to be in the family of like the Seahawks where they try and slow down the game and limit possessions and all that, that's not good for fantasy. But at the same time,

it is like the Seahawks where they're going to try and do explosive plays as much as they possibly can. So that means a lot of play action, I'm guessing, and a lot of airing it out downfield. And that's perfect for both Jones and Goladay who are very good deep threats. And so I kind of, I'm a little bit excited to watch this lion's offense for the first time in forever,

just because I think even though they're going to run the ball a lot, I think they can throw the ball down the field too. I also think somebody to look at a little bit as Carryon Johnson, just because with this Matt Patricia offense of just high volume rushing, and like we said, with this Carolina Devens could be on the field the entire day, getting exhausted through the second half, carry-on could really rack up a lot of carries and a lot of yards in this game. Yeah, absolutely.

I don't know. I'm just, yeah, I'm excited to see if the gunslinger Stafford comes back at all. Yeah, the one knowing thing about Caron, I think you said Carolina, but you meant Arizona, but the one, the knowing thing about Carri-on this week is that, or the whole season, is that when they cut Theorritic, the lines cut fellow running back with Theoretic who was taking so many past-catching opportunities from Johnson last year, we thought that he would be a three-down back. I think everyone in fantasy, quite honestly, thought he'd be a three-down back.

And then it seems from all their preseason usage that, nope, they're going to use C.J. Anderson similarly to the way they used Ligarid Blunt last year, which is really frustrating. But could be good for Johnson this week. But still, it's frustrating he won't be quite as used as we thought he would. They also signed J.D. McKissick. And J.D. McKissick, yeah. D.K., you know J.D. McKissick better than we do. Former Seahawks running.

He's essentially a slot receiver. I mean, he's, I don't know if they're just going to use him on special teams or what. We'll have to see. I think Ty Johnson probably is still higher in the pecking order than JD McKissick. So I don't know. We'll see. But I think there's still a chance Johnson could be that bell cow that everyone wants him to be. That's been Beville's MO.

Of course, he's been with running backs like Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch where you kind of have to use them as Bell cows. But yeah, we'll see how it all kind of plays out. I wouldn't give up quite yet on that. All right, so those are the three matchups we really love for this week. We're going to build a lineup for Daily Fantasy for Draft Kings this week. But before that, let's take a quick break. In partnership with our friends at Belvedere Vodka,

join Kevin Clark, Robert Mays, and Ryan Rusillo for a live Ryan Rusillo podcast, in Atlantic City for Monday night football at the new Money Line bar and book at the Borgata on Monday, September 16th, at 7 p.m. Enjoy cocktails made with Belvedere vodka, the first super premium, all-natural vodka. Watch the Browns take on the Jets and talk football with the guys. All right, D.K., Craig, we're going to throw together

our Draft Kings lineup for this week. Just to give everyone a little reminder on Draft King's scoring. So it's full PPR. There's some bonuses. there's an extra point for, or sorry, three extra points for 100-yard rushing game, three extra points for 300-yard passing game, but other than that, standard,

four points for passing touchdown, six for receiving and rushing, and then again, as I said, full point PPR. So we're going to run through, and then there's one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end, a flex, and a defense.

No kicker. Kickers don't have rights. So let's just jump in. And we're going to be joining leagues that are the entire 16-game slate every week. Well, not Monday night football. So the entire Sunday night slate. Correct.

Sorry, yeah. The whole Sunday slate. It's daily fantasy. It's not like two day fantasy. That'd be ridiculous. It'd be insane. It's madness. All right, we're going off the rails.

All right. D.K., we, well, I mean, full disclosure, we've settled in the lineup and we did all the arguing off air. But now we are just going to go through who we picked. And then the people who didn't get the players we want are just going to kind of bitterly chime in about why they liked someone else. And that's like that to you guys? I mean, you wouldn't believe it, you wouldn't believe it, but getting three people to decide on a daily fantasy league or team is not super easy.

And we've got to split the winnings. Yeah, it's cool. We're all totally happy at the end of this process. We're all, you know, just thrilled. All right. So when we went to, when we were looking at the quarterback position, we kind of went into it with a couple variables in mind. And most specifically, we wanted a quarterback who whose team was favored and at home. The reason for that, I was actually talking to my buddy Scott Barrett from PFF a couple of weeks ago when I wrote a article about just the stickiest stats in fantasy football.

And he said something that was really interesting to me that I just kind of stuck with me. And he said, for quarterbacks, and this is quote, quoting Scott, we don't care about volume. We care about efficiency. Since 2007, among all quarterbacks who play in all 16 games, raw pass attempts had a point 4-1 correlation to fantasy points. And remember, that's you want one is like, a very strong correlation. Correlation to pass rating 0.73, correlation to yards per attempt.

0.63. So what does that tell us? Efficiency is more important than volume for fantasy quarterbacks. And then, so basically, in other words, there's sort of this impression that if your team is going to be playing from behind,

they're going to be passing in time, there's more chances for fantasy points, blah, blah, blah. But really, you're going to be better off. Your quarterback's going to score more points to be super efficient. And the teams that are most efficient generally have

the better quarterback. So, I should say the teams with the better, more efficient quarterbacks typically win. So that's why you look for teams that are home and are favored. And that's also significant because it upends a foundational concept and fantasy that volume is king and that's generally just how it is.

But with quarterbacks, it's a little more complicated. It's not a hard and fast rule. And he said that. I mean, it's different if you've got like Aaron Rogers versus Deshawn Watson, then you want both. But if if everything else is equal, if they're priced exactly the same in DFS, that's when you look at home team and favored. In other words,

like that's just kind of like the tiebreaker that he looks at. So I think that was really, really fascinating. You know, there are exceptions to the rule. Russell Wilson is one of them. He's super, super efficient,

but they just like don't run, they don't like pass enough to make it like worth your while and always. But that's kind of a whole whole other conversation. But ultimately, we landed on Wednesday. his team is playing at Washington at home against Washington. They're favored by 10. I think we all really like Wentz.

We think he's got great upside. That's a super deep roster. The skill position group around him is amazing. Their line, I think, is supposed to be really good. So ultimately, we think he could be really efficient in this game, right? Is that kind of like what I don't want to speak for you guys, but that's kind of where we landed on him? And also just because for some teams, you do have a fairly predictable idea of how the ball will be spread. not with the Eagles, but we know the ball will be spread.

So I think I'm down to invest in the Eagles past. I think the Eagles going to crush Washington. I think this is akin to, like, Alabama playing Duke for the first game of the season last year. I think they're going to wipe the floor with them. And that includes Wentz. But I really don't know who's going to play well in this game. I'm not 100% confident. Ertz is going to be the guy who, like, leads the team receiving.

But I'm pretty confident Wence is going to have a huge game. So I love Wens with here. And he's cheap. He's not expensive. He's the third. most expensive quarterback, which doesn't really make sense. But one thing D.K. and I were talking about was just kind of right now with week one of daily fantasy, it's time to kind of exploit the unknown.

He called it an injury discount that just like guys like Hunter Henry who will get to later. And Carson Wentz just kind of have this unknown to them. And that's probably why they're so cheap week one. It could be a lot different next week. Absolutely. There was a couple of guys we considered it in this spot. And we were looking for sort of a little bit of a discounted quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo, 5800 at Tampa Bay.

I think we shied away a little bit just because bad vibes with Jimmy Garoppolo right now, I think. And then Lamar Jackson, he was $6,000 on draft kings at Miami. The one thing I think we were worried about with Jackson, obviously, his rushing floor is incredible. But Craig brought up a really good point. If the Ravens end up going ahead early and really just kind of dominating this game, which we think they might, they might not have Jackson really run it that much. Like they might just be happy to hand it off. So that can potentially, I guess, lower his ceiling.

We still don't really know how he's developed as a passer. Obviously, the Dolphins' front seven is pretty bad, but their defensive secondary is pretty solid. So altogether, that's, I think, why we went with Wence. Yeah, running Lamar Jackson feels precious. Every rush feels precious. And I don't know why they would waste that up 17 in the fourth against. Miami.

I'll be honest, our lineup has $300 left over, and that is the difference between Wenzhen and Lamar, and I actually would be okay upgrading to Lamar because I think the rushing will be amazing from Lamar in this game, but I'm okay with Wins too. You think he's going to run a lot, even if they're killing them? I think that

killing them will come from Lamar rushing, but it's okay. Yeah, I mean, that's like, that's a great point. Ultimately, I love Jackson. The other person I wanted to get in with on the rushing game from Baltimore's Mark Ingram, because I've said this over and over again, I will say it in the future over and again, I love the Ravens rushing this year.

I love Mark Ingram. I think they're going to rush a ton. I think they're going to crush the dolphins. But I also understand that there's so many variables with that offense. John Harbis says it's going to revolutionize things that we actually don't know what they're going to do yet. So we ultimately went with someone else. Chris Carson on the Seahawks. D.K., do you want to—

Near and dear to my heart, Chris Carson. I think the Seahawks are going to feed him in this game. I think he's going to get leadback, you know, carries. I don't think Rashad Penny is challenging him at this point for the lead back anymore. I think that's kind of a ship that's sailed at this point. And the Seahawks are just harping on the fact that they want to get him more involved in the passing game. Altogether, I think he's a great value. He's 5,700 on DK.

And ultimately, I think the Seahawks are going to probably control the game. I think he's probably going to get a couple of red zone carries. I just think upside is there for, like, he's got high floor or high ceiling. And so I'm liking that play a lot. All right. And then so we have Wence at quarterback, Carson, at running back, or other running back, Gregorio. It's my guy, Leonard Fournett. We had to do it.

It's week one. They're playing the Chiefs at home in Jacksonville. And we consider Nick Chubb versus the Titans, but we ended up landing on Leonard Fournette because, one, he's pretty cheap for all the other three downbacks. I think he's the cheapest true three down back. The other guys below him are Marlon Mac and Carrion Johnson. but those guys might not truly be three-down backs. But for reference, Craig, he's 6,100 on Draft Kings.

Elliot and Barclay, so Elliot, Ezekiel Elliott is 9,200. 3,000 extra dollars. That's a huge when you're putting together a budget. Saquo and Barclay's 9,000, McAfreys 8,800. So we took that value, like, we looked at that as like a huge value. Exactly. And you may think this game's going to be a blowout. You may think that the Chiefs are going to kill him.

But Fournette's past catching with his lack of back. backups kind of gives him a higher floor than I think people think, because all we have behind him is Raichael Armstead, who caught 29 passes in his four years in college. So he's going to catch passes in this game? And the game's going to be high scoring. It was the highest over-under-the-week at 51-5-and-a-half, and we just think Fournette's a great value.

So there we go. So we've got Fournette and Ingram, sorry, Fournette and Chris Carson at running back. I was projecting there. Went to quarterback, looking at our receivers, three receiver lineups on Draft Kings. We went with, should reveal them all at once or just go one-by-one?

Let's go one by one. One by one. Yeah, it's more suspenseful, right? All right. First of, I mean, we discussed them at length, but Marvin Jones from the Lions. I mean, we discussed this one. But, D.K., just feel free to. So the Cardinals' past defense could potentially be really bad this week with inexperienced cornerbacks there.

I do like Jones as sort of like an arbitrage to Galladay. Jones is only 4,800. But just for reference, just for context, So last year in 15 games, Gala Day average 13.8 pbr points per game. In nine games last year, Jones averaged 12.9. So less than one point separates the two of those guys. And you can get Jones for far less money. I just think people in general are sleeping on Jones.

I think he goes, like he slots right back into this offense as like a deep threat, big play threat. I think he fits well in what I expect to be a play action-heavy scheme. I'm just kind of, I like Jones. I think he's a good player, and I think, you know, getting him back into the offense this year, people are kind of sleeping on him.

I just Googled Arbitrash, the simultaneous buying and selling of securities to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset. Wow. Yeah, so let me explain that. That's a $10 word. So Arbitrage is also a fantasy concept in a sense, and it's essentially looking for guys in very similar profiles

of more expensive players. So, like, I just used Jones and Goladay as an example, of arbitrage. Like, they both are big play downfield threats, right? They both have potential to get touchdowns. Goliday is much more expensive than Jones. So that's kind of like how I look at it. Typically, you arbitrage, like, guys on different teams.

Like Cooper Cup in L.A. and then Geronimo Allison in Green Bay. And I think it's just right now, obviously, Cooper Cup is well, like, far more established and far more expensive. And right now he's 5,700. but you can get a guy who's going to be playing a very similar role in a similar styled offense with a good quarterback for far cheaper. And that's just kind of like how the arbitrage works.

You're not getting the same player, but you're getting a player that fits the kind of same profile. So one of our other receivers we pick for this lineup is Mike Evans on Tampa Bay. We considered Chris Godwin, who is the receiver behind Mike Evans on Tampa Bay. So why did you feel we wanted Evans in that matchup against San Francisco we discussed earlier? Why Evans over Godwin then? just pick Godwin for cheaper. Evans is a higher ceiling.

He's an Air Yards king, which should absolutely fit perfectly into Bruce Arian's offense. Evans was second in the league in Air Yards last year, and this is the second highest over under the week at 51 points. So we just think that with all the other guys

up there like Odell and Julio, Mike Evans is kind of a bit of an off-the-beaten path option who can kind of put up the same numbers as the rest of those guys. And for those who don't religiously follow Josh Hermzmeyer 538 on Twitter. Air Yards is basically if every receiver caught every pass thrown to them

and then immediately fell down just to kind of capture average depth of target as a stat on its own to kind of capture opportunity. So that's our line of right now. We got Wensk at quarterback, Chris Carson at running back, Leonard Furnett at running back, Marvin Jones at receiver,

Mike Evans at receiver. Our third receiver is Tyler Lockett on the Seahawks. Homer biased, D.K., do you want to explain why we just keep gravitating to freaking Seahawks? He's going to be the guy in the Seahawks passing offense.

Right now, David Moore is hurt. you got D.K. Metcalfe coming off an injury. You got a bunch of young guys. So I think Lockett's going to get a ton of looks. He's going to have a high target floor, even for the Seahawks offense, which may be low volume. But he's also got that touchdown upside. He's really dangerous out of the slot. He's dangerous on play action.

I think he's still an ascending player. He might, he's a prime regression candidate from the touchdown point of view. But in my mind, he's still an ascending player just, you know, in real football. I think he's just only going to get better. So that's why I kind of want that. I mean, obviously, I didn't choose all these Seahawks, but you guys made me talk about him. Yeah, sure, sure you didn't.

But so we were between kind of Tyler Lockett at $6,000 and Tyler Boyd at $5,800. Obviously, Seahawks are playing the Bengals, and we like that matchup. But it has one of the lower over-under totals of the entire week, actually. And, again, we've kind of said that we like high over-under-totals. But, again, we keep saying they're guidelines and their exceptions to those guidelines. Yeah. So one of these exceptions are these both Seahawks and Bengals ironically have receivers that are going to get a disproportionate share of targets.

So Tyler Boyd with the green injury and Eifford's uncertainty and John Ross's uncertainty. Boyd's the only guy. We're like, yeah, this guy's going to get a lot. Same with the Seahawks are actually in almost the exact same situation where a lot of uncertainty and injuries and inexperience under locket. So that will make an exception for the over-under rule being low in this case because those guys are going to get so much of their offense. And then for all the thought we put under that,

kind of did the opposite with tight end, where we had a certain amount of money left and we're like, Hunter Henry seems good. Yeah, he was, he was cheap and no one was around him. We like him more than Eric Ebron. Last year, the Colts gave up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends.

And it's, again, like we said, this is the injury discounts. Time to exploit the guys that no one knows about yet. Yeah, you can't overthink everything. Flex, we did Dalvin Cook on Minnesota. This one was also, this is just exciting. Like, the Vikings completely doubled down on running back this year, of triple down even.

They have Gary Kubiak. I love Cook. I mean, Cook, you know, I had a hamstring injury last year. Depress a season-long injury, season-long numbers because of injury. But on a game-to-game, still love Dalvin Cook. And the Falcons, and they're going to get more involved in the passing game. And the Falcons have conceded passes to running backs.

Really under Dan Quinn, part of he was the defense coordinator for the Legion of Boom. As you know, D.K., part of his strategy is, like, let them pass to running backs. Go ahead. Oh, yeah. So in a full PPR league, like, that's great. That's the three-high Seahawks, you know, style defense that a lot of teams that using now like Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn and whatever like the Pete Carroll family or tree or whatever of coaches a lot of times it's just they literally concede passes to the running backs like

we're going to defend deep getting deep getting beat deep is the worst thing that can happen so like we're going to back off you know especially on first and second down and just let you dump it up like if you if you dump it off that's a win for them so in other words you're that's a good match up um for running backs you can catch passes I think cook has talent as a pass catcher. I think they're probably going to use him a lot. Get him early on when he's still healthy. Hopefully he'll stays healthy this whole season.

But in particular, I like getting cook in this first week. It's just kind of fun. Love me some Dublin cook. And at defense, we sheld out for the Eagles because, again, Washington, it seems at this point that Trent Williams is not going to play at left tackle for them. That just seems like it could be a disaster. The worst pass catching group in the league.

Keenum could be a turnover machine. Yeah, I think, you know. Of all the defenses, I mean, I think, think the two best bets for pick six this week are the Ravens in Miami against Fitzpatrick and the Eagles in Washington against Case Keenham. I love the Eagles defense this week. So that's our lineup, baby. So we got Carson Wentz, a quarterback for $5,700. Chris Carson at $5,700 as well at running back.

Leonard Fournette at $6,100. Then receivers are Marvin Jayon Jones at $4,800. Tyler Lockett at $6,000. Mike Evans at $7,900. Hunter Henry at $3,900 at tight end. Dalvin Cook running back at $6,000 Defense, the Eagles D at $3,600. We have $300 left over.

What do you guys want to spend it on? Honestly, like dinner? New clothes. I could use an updated wardrobe. Yeah, you could. Thank God this is a podcast. You have a wardrobe for radio. Oh, my God.

No one look at me. Also, we highly encourage everyone to start submitting questions on our Facebook group. Please join the Facebook group. Yes. Facebook page for the Ringar NFL show. We're very excited about it. We're going to be soliciting a question each week on Friday.

So if you have a start sick question or if you have just general question about DFS, we love a big question. Big picture, super specific. We're going to be polling questions. So join the Facebook group. The first question we're polling for this week is from Brian Cohn. Thank you for submitting. And he asked which player or players that don't necessarily crush it in fantasy football would you want on your NFL team?

So, D.K., you want to take that first? I mean, my first thought was... Also, to be clear, we're going to talk about fantasy eligible players. So we're not going to talk about linemen because obviously. Right. Oh, yeah. I mean, give me a left tackle. Yeah, obviously.

I mean, my first thought of like fantasy non-relevant players, like fullbacks are the first one that came to mind. Like Kyle Eusecheck, give me that guy. He can line up anywhere in the formation, create mismatches. Same with James Devlin of the Patriots. You're not going to ever start those guys in fantasy, but I kind of like watching them play

just the way that they can line up and create mismatches in the passing game. I feel like I'm the Kyle Eusecheck of this podcast. What do you guys? think about that. I think so, yes. You have a hard-to-pronounce last name. That's true.

This is true. God, dude, never make me pronounce Kyle's last name. Horald Beck? Thank you, D.K., you got it. It's not that bad. My answer to this question is just, I mean, there's a simple one for me, which is,

well, there's two, but one is just backup quarterbacks. Like, journeyman and quarterbacks are kind of like, like Josh McCown. Kind of a laughing stock when he goes team to team. Love McCown. Those people are so valuable. They're basically a coach on the field. So, like, when McCown was with the jet,

He's a mentor for Donald. Like there's one of those at every position. Hasselbeck with the Colts, man. Exactly. Every position. So even guys you don't expect, for example, Chris Thompson and Washington was a couple of years ago, the oldest guy in their whole running back group.

He was like 25 or 26. But it's really important to have someone in each position group who can teach the younger guys how to be a professional, which has no bearing on like you'll never see that on the football field, but it helps keep younger people together for like adjusting to the NFL. I mean, these are guys who just were in high school and then college and now they're just NFL players. And there's a lot that they need to learn. Think about the pressure.

Think about the pressure of being in the NFL, man. I always think about that. And then also just, I think, slot receivers who can block. So, Mohamed Sanu blocks really well. You don't ever see that one. Really important. Thank you, Brian, for the question. Thank you, D.K. and Craig.

Good luck to everyone this week. We'll be back next week.