The Ringer NFL Show - Keys to the Super Bowl

Episode Date: February 10, 2022

Nora and Mal pick out seven keys that will determine who wins the Super Bowl. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Mallory Rubin Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Bill Simmons. The Super Bowl is happening in Los Angeles. I'm actually going to be there. And we did a big mega preview on the Bill Simmons podcast. We broke down all the betting angles with our friend Cousin Sal. We broke down the football angles with Peter Schrager. We had some more guests. I made some picks. I tried to turn my luck around. It's all happening on the Bill Simmons podcast. Check it out. The big Super Bowl mega preview. Listen to it on Spotify. Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Pintziotti. here for the last time this season with Mallory Rubin. Mal, is it, is it hitting you in the fields? It's hitting me in the fields. Oh, boy, it is. It really is. What a journey it's been, what a season it's been.

No one I would have rather shared it with. And I can't wait to be together again for podcasting about football. And, you know, maybe Dune's best picture win. We'll see. We'll see what leads us to reconvene on Mike, no doubt. That'll be sooner rather than later. for my passion project, Ring or Verse Twilight. I mean, hey, I await your owl.

As they say, don't do the pod before the pod. So, I don't know if you've heard. There's a little game called the Super Bowl being played at the end of this week. And we're going to break it down. We're going to go through the keys to the Super Bowl for the Rams and the Bengals. And we're going to do such a good job that you, the list, of this very podcast are not going to have to watch the game. You can just, Kevin Clark and I were talking to D.K. Metcalf yesterday, who informed us that he's not going to be watching the Super Bowl. He might catch up on Euphoria. He's only seen a couple episodes of season two. So I might choose that for a little Sunday entertainment. If you would like to join D.K. in that choice, my promise to you is that you will be able to do so because you're about to learn everything you need to know about the Super Bowl. I don't know, man.

I think Super Bowl and then Euphoria sounds like the ideal double feature. It's the old, why not both? Porcane a Los Dos. All right. I think we should start with the Rams because they are the home team. We're here in Los Angeles. Yeah. We met.

We met in a person. Finally. It was a delight, Nora. It really was. It warmed my heart. It brought me a lot of joy. I asked about Halo. I got nothing but just fantastic.

information about Halo continuing to be fluffy and wonderful. It was the best. It was a heartwarming experience. And I think we're going to carry those vibes forward on this pod. And yes, as that took place in beautiful Los Angeles, California, we will start with the Rams. Okay. Now, your number one key to the Super Bowl for the Los Angeles Rams. Okay. My number one. not number one for the game overall. That'll come later. But my number one for the Rams,

Sean McVeigh, ever heard of them, and the old Super Bowl redemption arc. Nora, it would not be a big Rams game if we didn't have some sort of Sean McVeigh narrative to assess heading into it, right? It just wouldn't be. Wouldn't feel right.

We are coming off a full season and certainly full postseason of Ken McVey beat Shanahan Talk. We got the answer to that finally. And of course, on the eve of McVeigh's second Super Bowl as Rams head coach, we're talking about not just the Super Bowl to come, but a Super Bowl of yesteryear, three Super Bowls ago. February 2019, cap of the 2018 season, when the offensive juggernaut Rams managed just three points.

in a Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots. Now, ever heard of him? This is, to be clear, not an invented and hyped and hyperbolic media narrative. This is something that McVeigh talks about directly often and has been quite forthright about, including in the lead up to this game, right? He has talked very candidly about the impact

that that Super Bowl loss had on him about what happened in that game. Kev and D.K. and Solac chatted earlier in the week on this feed about, Kevin highlighted specifically about how McVeigh has noted how he really like over-prepared for that game. But McVey has spoken about how he got out coach, the adjustments that he didn't make, really took that upon himself, right? And so, of course, this is on our minds as people who cover the NFL, this is on Rams' fans' minds, this is on viewers' minds, but it's also on McVeigh's mind heading into the game.

Can he get that Super Bowl redemption? And one of the things that I think is interesting to track and think about is that this manifests in the macro and micro alike. It has to this point and it will in this game too. That Patriots loss, the fallow periods for the Rams in ensuing seasons, raised that that key crucial question of like how can McVeigh adjust what do adjustments look like for him and those are going to be on display but also then while they're on display under the microscope under the spotlight in this game it's true for the in-game adjustments and how he'll make them

and what they'll look like but it's also a true in that broad it true in that broader sense for assessing the ultimate success this is something we've talked about all season long of that rams all in who needs the draft will build our roster through big trades and veteran acquisitions, team building approach. So a lot of the keys that we're going to highlight across today's episode, we can tease a couple of them here very quickly, from Ramsey covering Chase to Miller and Donald in the past rush disrupting borough to Stafford executing without mistakes, et cetera, et cetera, are adjustments in this grander sense because they tie not only to scheme and execution,

but to team building. McVeigh and the Rams said, can't win a Super Bowl with Goff, can win one with Stafford, who we're going to talk about more in a minute. So here's where they prove it. And it's this interesting contrast to the coach on the other side. You've done a wonderful job of highlighting this really almost like intangible amorphous, but essential element of how one of the real credits to Zach Taylor is just letting Joe Burrow be Joe Burrow.

The ringer NFL show say something nice about Zach Taylor challenge is what you're referring to, Mallory. Exactly. and everyone is grasping onto this success that you've had in identifying that and telling it. So you have this like stay out of the way of coaching tactic on one side. And then McVeigh, which is the complete opposite, right? It's can you scheme and tweak and adapt with precision and deliberate intent? And there's this like quote that you'll see floating around a lot this week. Pressure is a privilege.

This is something that McVeigh is saying. This is something Stafford saying. This is something the Rams and Mass are saying it's one of their like go-to summations for how they are entering this game. And I think that they might really believe that and that's great. But pressure is also pressure. And for McBay, the pressure to execute in a big game is is supreme following that pat's loss. Can he position Stafford to protect the ball? Can he make adjustments at the half and throughout the game to whatever the Bengals defense is throwing at his offense?

If Cincinnati works to limit play action to disrupt the game script, if they're able to force Stafford into mistakes. If Higbee is indeed out, if Acres is still limited, can McVeigh continue to scheme open his stars, push the ball downfield, adjust to whatever he's facing in the moment, properly manage his timeouts, properly and smartly use his challenges, right? He is still very, very young coach, still the youngest coach of the game. still this precocious wonderkin, but this is already his second Super Bowl in five years with the Rams. And that's incredible. So there's this interesting dynamic where he's still the youngster, but also like one of the seasoned vets in this game and has a lot after those early but high profile high stakes years to prove in this big one, this really big barrier to clear. And I think this time he's much better positioned to show, to make those adjustments,

but also show that he knows what they are and how to make them work and to examine. at this one. Instead of being surrounded by a bunch of questions that will linger into the seasons to come, surrounded by a lot of a confetti shavings and cheering players instead. Kevin and Zolak and I were talking about this yesterday.

So, you know, if you walk around Radio Row and do a bunch of interviews, talk to a bunch of people this week, a lot of them being players, former players, people who are in the game, in my experience this week, anyone who has ever pulled on a jersey and and set foot on a football field to play an NFL game,

unless they have some very serious connection with Cincinnati, they all think the Rams are going to win. And the Rams are a much more talented team. Like if you go sort of one to one down the roster, they have more strengths than the Bengals do. And, you know, I think the betting markets are a little bit lopsided. It seems entirely within the realm of possible. that, you know, they start the game and it's just fairly clear that one team is,

is better than the other and the Bengals have reached their ceiling. If you're looking for an alternative to that, though, the two things I hang on to, and I pick the Rams, so I'm more inclined to side with the ladder. But the two things that I can hang on to for the Bengals are, if one quarterback melts down, like has a meltdown, not gets bottled up by scheme, pressure, more talented opposition, but throws four picks and has a total, you know, I think it's more likely to be Stafford than Burrow. And then the other piece of it is just, I don't think momentum is really a real thing in sports, but I do think confidence is. And I'm not sure, I'm genuinely not sure who would be the more confident team going into this, just because

that is what the Bengals have. That X factor that comes mostly from Burrow, I think, in their locker room where they just think they're going to win every big game. And if you contrast that with the arc that you just built about what the Rams have been through and what McVeigh has been through, I think it's a real factor. Like, I'm glad we're talking about it because it's a real factor that I'm not sure the team who seems logically like a serious favorite is,

going to be the more confident team when they start the game. And it's sort of irrational except for the fact that, you know, the most important position on the field, the guy the Bengals have just, I don't think that he's lost a major playoff game since like six years or something. Something absurd. Somebody wrote a good story about it. I wish I could have more specific credit here. I'll try to tweet it.

But I think that that the pressure goes on. to McVeigh because of that because he is the one who has both been there but didn't get it done in that moment and, and, you know, you can put a lot on Gough and the offense. But once they move on from him, it's kind of like, okay, well, now we are testing, like, you would be the variable, right? Like, you removed Jared Gough as the variable. So now it's, now it's on McVeigh. You, you, this is, it's a great point about the comparative pressure because obviously any team is going to feel pressure on the Super Bowl, but what you're highlighting about the Bengals is really a.

in the contrast of, not to overstate it, but that, well, it's kind of all gravy because we were never supposed to be here, like, not to diminish how much they want it, right? But that's a very different thing. Kevin and I were talking to Carson Palmer yesterday, and he was just very frank and was like, I do not think the Bengals thought that this was going to be, I think they thought that they were approaching a Super Bowl window. Do not think that they thought it was going to open this year. This soon, right. And so you contrast that with, it's not only the quest for redemption, but the real recognition that this is a referendum on everything that followed the last Super Bowl

that you did to account for it and to not let it happen again. Those are drastically different stakes. They really are. And they have not. I'll go to my first key for the Rams this way. The Bengals just have not, it is not the Bengals way to push all the chips into the middle of the table like the Rams have done.

But they also, again, haven't had the, years to recognize here's the window. Let's go get Jalen Ramsey. Let's get Odell Beckham. Let's get Aaron Donald. Von Miller. And I want to talk about Ramsey in my first key because I think that his matchup on Jemar Chase, which Stephen Rhee's wrote a fantastic story on their hair.com about, I believe last week, this week, I don't know what day it is. But check out Stephen's story. What is time? I operate in years now. I can be reasonably trusted to know what year it is. And that is about it.

You're like an NFL GM, you know? Team building season by season. Totally. It is. So I think Jalen Ramsey shutting down Jamar Chase is, for fairly clear reasons, one of the biggest matchups in the Super Bowl. And it's important because, and this is what, Stephen did such a great job about lighting is that usually the Bengals have been very good at attacking

two high safety looks in the later half of the season by isolating chase in three by one formation. So three receivers on one side of the field, chase on the other. Bengals love those empty sets. They do a lot of those. They can stack one area. So if you have two high safeties, you're choosing between, okay, we can help out a corner on Chase, but then there's going to be a numbers advantage for the Bengals on the other side, or you can push everybody to the other side,

but then you're asking a cornerback to hold up one-on-one against Chase, and usually we know how that ends. Thing is, Jalen Ramsey's not most cornerbacks. Absolutely relishes a physical matchup with a receiver like Jamar Chase. And I would not be surprised if that is at minimum. a very even battle. And the Bengals' worst offensive output of the season was against the Broncos who had Patrick Sertan

to play in that role of shut down corner just glued to chase. And those are two defenses when the Broncos were under Vic Fangio defenses that come from similar treat and they had the commonality of a quarterback who could be trusted to do. that. And I think there's going to be no secret that stopping Chase, not letting Chase win the Super Bowl for the Bengals is going to be huge for the Rams. So there's going to be a lot on Higgins, Boyd, to take advantage of the space that's opened up. But if Ramsey can do that by

himself, probably a lot less space in that area. And it connects to, we're going to get a little bit later to how I think the Rams are going to rush the passer and use their defensive front. But that could create some sort of middle of the field second level openings for the Bengals to use some quick game stuff. So it's possible that they are going to have to find a way to win this game, Cincinnati, if they're going to win. without Chase just like absolutely going bananas because I just think that that will be the top priority of L.A. But if they can force,

if he can play well enough so that they have to devote more resources than just Ramsey alone, it just would be such a huge, schematic win for Cincinnati. And obviously, so I'm calling this a Rams matchup, I do think that if Ramsey shuts them down, it's kind of like, they're in pretty good shape. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I agree certainly that this is one of the central keys to the game. If you hadn't picked it, Nora, I would have. I mean, also, blessed are we who get to watch it? I know. I was exactly what I was just going to say. I just find it like genuinely exciting as a football fan that we get to see this matchup in the Super Bowl. And like you already tease, you know, we have a couple other keys coming that tap into the Bengals offense more broadly in accounting for what they're going to face from the Rams defense.

So I think we'll circle back to this one in a little bit of an entwined related fashion with other keys. But that's one of the reasons that this actually is such an interesting one because it's not isolated, right? It has a direct impact. And the on and from the pressure borough is going to face how that impacts the speed. with which he needs to move through his progressions, the speed with which he needs to release the ball, what that means in terms of the kind of read he can make. And if Chase is blanketed and eliminated, then who else is going to be able to emerge Higgins or otherwise as a primary target for Burrow? I think that as ready as Ramsey will be, you know that he will

come in absolutely just energized and like a dynamo. ready to attack this matchup. I think the Bengals will be smart and will account for it, but I actually really hope that they don't become too overly conservative in terms of avoiding that matchup, because if you eliminate Chase completely from that offense, then it ceases to be the offense that we've watched and that's gotten them to this point. So I think that that balance between adjusting sufficiently and being savvy with what's open and not allowing themselves to basically remove their,

their most dynamic offensive outlet. You got to do what you can. Yeah. At least, you know, adjust to what you're seeing, but I think you can't wait to watch this one. They can use Chase's explosive ability. You know, they've used Chase a little bit more on screens as the season has gone on as they've sort of searched to add a little bit more quick game stuff into the Bengals offense.

That's what I think is fascinating for Ramsey because I think one of the things that Stephen did a really good job of pointing out is that, you know, we think of him as like a lot of the best receivers in the league. We think of like a Tyree kill, someone who's just incredibly fast who can take the top off a defense and just, you know, you think about him and the image is sprinting 22 miles an hour into the end zone. And Chase can certainly do that.

But Ramsey, while he can do a good job on those, guys, it seemed like when he's talked about going up against, you know, D'Andre Hopkins, guys like that in the past, he really, really, really loves to battle with a super physical receiver as his primary opponent. So I am curious to see what happens if Chase is, you're right, still running some of the same vertical concepts that they have gotten so many big plays off of this season, but, you know, if they are trying to thread the needle of using his explosion, but also getting the ball out faster because of the threat of the Rams pass rush, what it will be like to watch him defend the screens, stuff where the Bengals are getting

chased with the ball in his hands a little bit faster and just letting him go. And how are the Rams not only defending the point of the catch, but what happens after it because of what Chase can do with the yards after catch. That'll be a scintillating thing to watch as well. Nora, should we move to our next key for the Rams, which is the one shared key that we have? Should we take this one together?

It's Matt Stafford protecting the football. Let's talk about Matthew Stafford. It's that we tried to pick different keys, but this was the one that I think we both were like, no matter what. We got to do it. This is just like a massive Matthew Stafford moment. Run us through it.

So, look, those of us who have followed the Matthew Stafford experience for years, know that it is a highly variable one. That's right. I think Matthew Stafford has been a top 10 quarterback in the NFL this season.

I think he's been genuinely very good. But when the Rams went on when they had that little down swing mid to late in the season, it was happening because he was just throwing picks. And he was not

necessarily throwing picks correlated with feeling a lot of pressure or stuff that was happening externally. I mean, I think we all had the experience of watching the NFC championship game essentially swing on a dropped interception that might have sent the 49ers to the Super Bowl

instead of the Rams. That was just a really, really bad throw and a play that should have been made but was not made. And I think if you're going into this game with Matthew Stafford on the whole, you feel pretty good. You feel like he's someone who can, who can do this. But the possibility of something like that is just there.

It's just going to be there. I don't think that it's something that you can deal with in practice. I think it's just something that you kind of have to get up in the morning and hope it's a good day. And, you know, the Bengals defense, Stafford's been great against the Blitz. That's something that he's been really, really solid out throughout the season. And obviously the connection with Cooper Cup is a huge part of that. Bengals aren't going to do that.

They blitzed the third fewest times in the league this season. So there's going to be a lot in this one where it is Stafford with a bunch of guys in coverage. And I just want to acknowledge the possibility that he throws the ball to someone in Orange and Black too many times. Yeah. And particularly in what I think could be a close game, the too many times is like pretty key phrasing because one time could be too many times potentially in a game like this. Right. And, you know, we talked earlier about- I think if Stafford throws one pick, the Rams are going to win. Yeah, I actually agree with that. I think we're aligned in our- Get a freebie mat prediction here. You know, we talked earlier about how much is on the line for- the Rams overall in terms of their roster building approach, McVeigh in terms of the offense. Obviously, Stafford is just a huge part of that.

And I think you don't concede that you can't win a title with Goff. Go out and beat your main rival, Shanahan, head to head in the pursuit for Stafford. And then not heavily, heavily, heavily feature what he unlocks for you and for your offense in the fucking Super Bowl. Right. So, like, we should be readying for the Matt Stafford show. I think that's reasonable to anticipate. And that will present more opportunities for the good, but also definitionally present more opportunities for the potentially less good, right?

And of course, overall, if we assess the current state of the Rams offense, you know, particularly with Aker's not yet back to being as effective as he was pre-injury and what the overall balance should be. Like this will be the Stafford Show. It should be the Stafford Show. can't wait to see what Cup does in the Super Bowl. Can Stafford avoid not only the big game swinging mistake, can he make the potential big game swinging play in the other direction, right?

Because those things are related. I think that he has obviously, you know, broadly protected the ball better in the postseason than he did during the regular season, though you mentioned the got away with one San Fran head to head, which is certainly notable and worth highlighting. But before the improved ball protection in the postseason, we led the league, tied for, tied for the league lead with 17 interceptions this season. He had 28 turnover worthy place this season, third most among quarterbacks per PFF. That's a lot, right?

This is a real thing, that propensity for an error in a costly moment. And I think crucially, like with this mashup, it's not a one-sided key. We're putting it with the Rams and Stafford, but it's not one side of key because forcing big turnovers has been an elemental part of the Bengals' defensive success this postseason, right? So they're primed for this. They're thinking about this. They're aiming for it and they're ready to capitalize if that Stafford tendency does surface again here. So how will they defend him? Like you already noted he's great against the Blitz.

Cup is great against the Blitz. The Bengals don't need to blitz to generate that pressure. So how is Stafford going to contend with facing seven or eight defenders if he's only facing a three or four man rush? I thought that the conversation that Solac and DK and Kev had on the feed this week was really interesting because Solac noted this was this was this was really illuminating. He noted that, you know, on the one hand, citing Stafford's performance against Eight Deep is. something that is happening, something that people are pointing to and something that is notable,

but also Solac noted that there's only those, only 43 Stafford dropbacks against that particular scenario. And so it's actually a smaller sample. He's been comparatively poor in those scenarios. Yes. The Bengals have proven a depth

at deploying that approach as recently as last game. Yes. So this is a thing. But could the sample size potentially be small enough? that Stafford is able to overcome it. I think Higby's health is certainly an interesting thing to monitor here,

more broadly for the Rams offense, obviously, but in this respect, too, over the next couple days before the game, because if Stafford is more inclined to force throws elsewhere on the field without that safety blanket, is he going to be even more rash? Is he going to be more inclined amid an aggressive game scheme to just force and push those one or two or three throws that he shouldn't.

And the contrary outcome would be can he be savvy and manage an aggressive offense, which I think again, to go back to what we talked about with McVeigh is like a lock. We will see an aggressive Rams offensive approach here.

Don't just force the ball to cup if they're blanketing him. Take advantage of Odell. Find Jefferson. Be creative with how you deploy the ball and move it around the field. And particularly because the Bengals defense, it's so different from the Rams. It's not like there's a superstar corner, right?

Like the closest player they have to a star defensively is Trey Hendrickson, I guess. But defense is often a weakest link thing. And that defense is pretty solid across the board. There's not like, you know, if you go to the PFF page, it's not like there's one area of the field where it's burning red and like, go there, attack that guy. Bengals don't really have that. And what they do have is guys like, okay, so guys like Mike Hilton, Apple, a lot of them

score very high in like when various sites track like ball hawking or hands, the things that generate a lot of turnovers. And again, I do want to just make sure that we're clear here. Like a lot of the Stafford picks this season didn't have. that sort of rhyme or reason to them. Didn't have that sort of, okay, well, DB made a great play, but can't exactly hurt, right?

And if that ball is consistently in harm's way, one thing that those Bengals DBs can do is have a lot of themselves on the field, and they can get the ball out of the air. So, and we've all seen major football games where a couple of turnovers really, really, really swing something. Just before we move on,

if we're talking about Stafford. Let's say the Rams are up by 10 points at halftime. Eminem is going to do what? Oh, God. I probably just like yelled Detroit or something. But I just want, I wish, a couple of times I've been asked by our wonderful coworkers if there are any prop bets that I'm looking at.

And usually my response is I don't understand what gambling is. But that one I would, that one I would be in too. You're looking at the Super Bowl halftime show prop bets exclusively. Totally. Totally. I respect it. All right, you want to talk about the Bengals? Let's do it.

Let's do it. I can kick things off for the Bengals keys, Nora. And this is the one I teased earlier, my number one overall key for the entire game. This is the one I am most interested in tracking. How will Joe Burrow contend with the Rams pressure? Nora, I'm not sure if you've heard, but Joe Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans earlier this postseason. You don't say. Also, Nora, I'm not sure if you've heard, but the ramps have Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd.

Of pretty good. Pretty good bunch. It's not bad. It's not bad. Again, of all the keys we're highlighting today, I just think Burroughs' ability to survive, to contend with and survive the Rams pass rush is the number one for me.

Generating pressure is a clear strength for the Rams defense. Protecting Burrow is a clear weakness for the Bengals, particularly the right side of that offensive line. This is not really a matter of whether that line can hold up to the pressure. It can't.

It cannot, right? Instead, this is a matter of how bro will play in the face of pressure that is inevitable, because, of course, he won that nine-sack game. So how can the Bengals mitigate the damage here? How can they script for and plan for what is in inevitability and channel that into intentional executions? because the real key, this is part of why this is a big key, is nestled inside of that larger key.

We've got nesting dolls of keys here. The Rams don't need to blitz to get this pressure on Burrow. And that means more men in coverage when Burroughs looking to throw. So Warren Sharp shared a lovely little nugget, great little nugget on the gambling show with Solac earlier this week. The Rams are the best team in the league at generating, pressure when they do not blitz. 30% pressure rate

when they're not blitzing. There is no reason none against this Bengals line in particular to expect that to change in the Super Bowl. The Rams will be able to generate consistent disruptive pressure with three or four defenders, which means seven or eight guys

back defending Burroughs throws. So what will he do? How will he account for that? What will he do if the Rams do remain staunch in that approach, which they should, and consistently rush with three or four instead of let's saying. Donald, PFF's top-graded interior defender this season, still Aaron Donald, right? Miller, new to the team, acquired this year, number four, edge defender for PFF this year. This is like basically as good as it gets. And then you can supplement that with Floyd, with Gaines.

I mean, Greg Gaines. Shout out Greg Gaines. Shout out Greg Gaines. Like how can the Bengals be expected to account for this? So here's a nugget from Ty Schultor, 538. from this week. Quote, only five defenders face double teams more often on pass rush snaps than Donald, according to ESPN's

stats and information group, yet nobody beat double teams more often. End quote. That win rate against double teams, 23.1%. Tie then helpfully goes on to note,

Nora, the Bengals pass block win rate, which is 53.1% among the worst in the league. This is a bad combo for the Bengals and a good combo for the Rams. The upshot is like, I think, I think pretty dismaying for Cincinnati, given their protection issues.

They can put extra men on Donald and it will not matter. And if miraculously it does, then Miller and Floyd and Gaines are just there waiting to break through. So with Donald and Miller bearing down on him, Miller in particular, Solock and D.K. You know, noted this week, like riding this surge, this surging postseason pressure rate, position to benefit from that extra attention paid to Donald, with Ramsey on Chase and coverage, as you noted. With another health question for the Super Bowl that we have to continue to monitor over the next couple days,

C.J. Isoma, what is his health level? How will he be able to play? How active will he be? Bro, needing to find Higgins, which you're going to talk about more in a few minutes, but still needing, as we talked about earlier, to find a way to get the ball to chase or at least try to. like that ability to release the ball quickly in the face of pressure is crucial on the one hand, but it's as crucial.

This is another balancing act issue. It's as crucial to avoid like shrinking into too conservative of a passing or even worse, overly run-reliant approach if you're Cincinnati. Like if it's all checkdowns all day, that's not going to be enough against a RAM team that, a Rams team that as we've discussed will be looking to push the ball aggressively downfield. So Burrow has to be strategic. He has to pair responsible accounting for the inevitability of that pass rush with like an intact aggressiveness. Well, right, because they gave, they gave up on that aggressiveness largely against Kansas City.

Exactly. They won that game defensively. Burrow was only sacked once, but the offensive line was not good. He just decided to go all quick game and get the ball out and readably quickly. And I'm not sure. If that's happening here. Yeah, I'm not sure you can do it to the same extent in this, even though I also think you have to more because of the mismatch is more skewed against them.

Exactly. Exactly. Like that dissonance is, I think, so scintillating to assess here because if the pressure consistently net sacks or short throws, then the Bengals are just going to have a hard time matching the scoring out. Right. So I'm really excited to see how Burrow contends. with a blend of pressure and coverage.

I don't expect him to shy away too fully or to make a lot of mistakes. I think Joe Burroughs great. I'm excited to watch it from the Super Bowl. But facing this, this defense, this patch rush behind this line, it is a particularly steep challenge. I think this is going to be an interesting one to track throughout the entire game. Well, my first key sort of has to do with this, too. And it is for the Bengals to avoid early down rushing.

Yes, which is something that, you know, we've, we've talked about wanting Zach Taylor to get away from this throughout the season. They actually had. As the season wore on, they were a little bit less run-heavy on early downs. They did kind of revert back to, I think, a 60% first-down run rate against Kansas City relative to 47% in other playoff games. They are just not good at it. They're 19th in EPA per play on rushing success on first and second downs, according to

PFF. It's a bad matchup. The Rams are seventh an EPA per play given up against. the run on early downs. There is, the reason I think this is an interesting piece is because it's easy to say we're smart football people.

We know you don't want to run the ball a lot on early downs. Twitter wins. Analytics wins. We can all go home now. There's actually kind of a compelling argument for doing it, which is that the Rams, even though you just did such a wonderful job

of pointing out that they do not need to Blitz to get pressure and often will only rush three or four guys at the passer. The Rams love to line up in five-man friends because it allows them to get their best players on the field. So they want Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, Greg Gaines, Sean Robinson. They want those guys on the field on as many snaps as possible. Get Floyd in there. So they do that a lot.

And often one or two of those guys will drop and, and, and, of rushing, but those are still big linemen. And that is probably the silver lining of that, right? The silver lining of the Rams just having all of these guys who across the board, you're going, oh, the Bengals don't have a lineman who can block that guy one-on-one. They don't have two linemen that can block Donald. Right. The silver lining is that if they consistently come out in five-man fronts,

it opens up a second layer of the field that Burrow could potentially try to exploit with those quick game concepts that they will need to rely on to some degree. If he's facing so much pressure that they have to do something similar, a version of what they were doing against Kansas City, where Burrow averaged 4.3 yards per pass attempt during the second half and overtime after you take out the snaps where they were running play action screens, RPO's, the stuff that's intrinsically short.

The argument is that you run the ball on early downs to make sure that they stay in those five-man friends. After having a conversation with our guy Ben Zolak, he very much convinced me that this is completely unnecessary. That the Rams have been doing this all season, that they are a star-powered team and they want their stars on the field, they want their best players on the field,

they want the guys that they have given up 800 draft picks for the next 20 years for, and they're just going to do it no matter what. And if they are just going to do it no matter what, then do not, Bengals, do not do the thing that you're not very good at. The thing that is negative expected value and that they have not been particularly successful on

throughout the season, and that the Rams have been very good at defending. Because here's the thing is if those guys aren't all rushing, which would be against what the Rams typically do if they were, and I don't know why they would against the Bengals Offensive Line, it is still a better matchup to be dealing with one of those guys dropping into coverage. You are happy in a weird way

if they are devoting that many resources to the defensive front in guys who could theoretically be rushing the passer because the Rams pass wrench against the Bengals offensive line is a Bengals L. And that is just the case. They are not winning that matchup. And so if it is an L either way,

if the Rams do not just push all their chips into that part of the game, they are still going to win there. But if they do, I think the Bengals kind of have to say, yeah, we're not blocking those guys. So thank you for putting more into it than you need to. And I think they can get away with that without having to, you know, maybe,

maybe you have a 35% early down run rate. That's great. Keep them honest. But it is unnecessary to get the schematic advantage of having five guys out there consistently. So no early down runs. I've come full circle on it. I love it. I love where you landed.

let Joe Burrow throw the football, do the thing that you're good at. That's a good. It's a great idea. We should coach a football team now. We should do it. Let's do it. Oh, boy. Nora, here's another thing the Bengals are good at, kicking field goals.

And so this is my final key for the Bengals. I'm doing this in part because you beat me to the other key I would have picked here, which is Higgins, which you'll highlight next. I'm with you on that one as well. For the sake of variety, but also because this is actually a real thing for Cincinnati. Addie and also because Arjuna has been begging us to talk about Money McPherson all postseason long. So we're giving it to him at last. Who better than the resident Justin Tucker kicking enthusiast to talk about Evan McPherson

in field goals for a minute here. McPherson is on the Bengals. Just say this because they drafted him. Always, always warrants mentioning. They believed that he had the ability to be a scouts, but their hands. heads together and they were like, you know what, let's go kicker. Here's the thing. Here's the thing.

They were right. He has been a difference maker. And it's kind of nicely emblematic in that sense of some of the unconventional things that the Bengals have done in ways that they have approached their team building really actually bearing fruit for them this postseason. And McPherson is going to need to continue the streak in the Super Bowl for many reasons. One of which is that Matt Gay is the kicker on the other. their side. So this is an excellent kicking matchup, but also because of everything else we've

talked about today, how close this game has a chance to be, and how for the Bengals in particular, what they're going to be facing from the Rams defense, this is going to sound like such a painfully obvious thing to say, you got to leave the drives with points. You just have to. And they have actually embraced the fact that for them, often that can come in the form of fuel goals. And over the course of the game, those add up. Will the pressure finally get? to this rookie kicker in the Super Bowl, I think it seems unlikely, based on what we've seen,

and I think it seems likely that he will be in high, high, high pressure, high stakes kicking moments. So he's 12 for 12 in the postseason to this point, four kicks per game. He is a rookie kicker,

just to repeat this, who has not missed a kick in the playoffs. It's incredible. And these are not like just chip shots or low stakes kicks. That includes a 52-yard game winner against the Titans in the divisional round. That includes the overtime kick against the Kansas City Chiefs in the championship round.

Like, it has been on him to send them forward. And he has done so. He's three kicks away also from breaking Adam Venetary's postseason kicking record, which is well within reach in this game. And he has been happy to talk about that and say that it's a thing he wants to do, a record he wants to beat, which I just love, like, so often, so often players like, oh, I don't, I'm not thinking about that. He's like, yeah, I want to do it.

This is the thing we're going to try to do. I just love this. And, you know, distance has also not been a limitation for McPherson. He set the NFL rookie record for kicks from 50 yards or beyond, 12 of them this season. He's, this is just, you know, again, very much entwined with their overall approach and all of these other keys. If Burroughs facing a barrage of pressure all day and Ramsey is blanketing chase and the field is compressing and shrinking and the ability to end drives with scores comes via McPherson. from distance with confidence. I don't think that's really something

that the Bengals would view as settling for. I think they would view it as that's a key part of their approach and something that they are content to deploy in this game because it has worked for them to this point. And if it comes down to a final kick as time is melting away, do we have any reason? Like, again, I'm picking the Rams, but do we have any reason to believe

if it comes down to that, that Money McPherson will not split the uprights? No, we do not. We do not. I wrote a story about the Bengals kind of irrational but also rational confidence last week. And originally when I was drafting it, I started it with this lead that was like, if an alien beamed down from space and asked you to explain the Bengals, you could start by saying that the rookie kicker at the end of the Titans game just like called game on the sideline and was like, well, look. like we're going on the AFC championship. And my delightful editor, Connor Evans, who saves me from myself on almost a daily basis, was like, hey, let's not do the alien thing. Let's leave extraterrestrial life just out of this,

which was definitely for the best. But it is true. It's like the most weird Bengals thing ever, that the kicker is just like, I could not possibly care less that we are in the Super Bowl and that this is the most high stakes, high pressure situation. I'm just going to kick 50-yard field goals. you're going to love it. I love Evan Pearson. He's right. We do love it. It's great.

All right. I'll get us out of here on my last key, which we've talked about a little bit. But just to put a finer point on it, it's T. Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and I think you are right to specifically zero in on Higgins. And we talked about this. It's really sort of the outgrowth of the conversation about Ramsey on Chase, which is just that we can feel pretty confident that one way or another, the Rams are going to focus on Chase. And football 101, the other guys are going to have to step up and take advantage of what's open.

And because Ramsey is likely to be the guy on the other side and has a reasonable chance in that matchup more than almost any other corner in football, they're not likely to have the same types of, oh, two guys. need to be paying attention to what Jamar Chase is doing on a snap by snap basis, look at all this nice open space, right? Like, it's probably not going to be that friendly.

I think we should give the Bengals credit for what they've done. It's a little bit similar to some of the stuff that Matt Lafleur has been really impressive coming up with, with Devante Adams, just to figure out, okay, how do we get this guy isolated, right? Like, how do we stack one side of the field effectively enough that our number one guy guy who everybody knows is our number one guy can actually have shot and can maximize his abilities. I think that's one thing, you know, we're often critical of the Bengals offense and some of the decisions that they've made. But I think that's one thing that's been really

impressive and an impressive adjustment as the season has gone on, how they've figured out how to balance those two things. But often it's chase do your thing and have a gravitational pull. of a lot of defenders and then other guys take advantage. And I think that's still the formula, but I don't think it's going to be super easy come against the Rams. So those guys having good games,

having games where they are genuinely, you know, being playmakers and making big plays, breaking tackles, impressive things at the catch point, right? Like, it's really significant. watching the way that Burrow attempts to find Higgins and capitalize on that edge and turn the potential limitation of losing that reliance on Chase into something that the Bengals can actually look to deploy as a strength.

I think we'll have just a huge, huge, huge bearing on the outcome here. Just to say it one more time, you know, I'm picking the Rams. It will not surprise me if the Bengals win and if Burrow has an awesome game. It's obviously been that kind of season. I think that it's well within the bounds of possibility. And this key that you just highlighted, I think has an outsized impact on the propensity and the likelihood of that actually bearing out. Mallory Rubin, you have had an outsized impact on my 2021 NFL season.

Same, pal. It's been a joy. I'll miss you. I really will. I will miss you as well. But we will be back in various forms and always. with always with you in spirit. I'm very excited for the Super Bowl.

Me too. I can't wait. I hope we got a good game. Hope we got a good game. Warm, cozy note, you know? Yeah. It's the Super Bowl. What's not to love? It's going to be great. It's going to be great. This has been the Ringer NFL show. She's Mallory Rubin. I'm Nora Prenziotti. Ben Solac, Kailen Jones, and Stephen Ruiz will be back on this feed breaking down the Super Bowl on Friday. Mal will be back on the ringer versus. feed with Joanna Robinson this Friday to break down the book of Boba Fett finale. It's exciting.

I will be back on the prestige TV pod with Joanna on Sunday because I have cloned myself to break down the sixth episode of Season 2 of Euphoria. Now, so lovely to do this pod. Nora, it's been a delight. It really has been a delight. And I'm sure we'll hear from you during the offseason sometime. As always, our thanks to production assistant, Isaiah

Blakely, for pretty. this episode and to Arjuna Ram Gapal for additional production supervision. Thank you, Isaiah. Thank you, Arjuna. You're the best, both of you.