The Ringer NFL Show - Lamar Jackson? Josh Allen? Picking the Six Most Interesting NFL Story Lines | The Scramble

Episode Date: November 17, 2022

This week, Sheil is joined by The Ringer’s Lindsay Jones to pick who they believe will be the most interesting people in football the rest of the season. They discuss Josh Allen's mini-slump (3:00) and what Lamar Jackson has at stake (8:00). Plus, they reveal whether they believe this will be Derek Carr’s last season in Vegas (17:00) and explain why it’s time for Zach Wilson to prove himself (31:00). Finally, they close the show by answering mailbag questions (40:00). Do you have a question for Sheil? Email [e-mail] for a chance to have your question answered on the show. Host: Sheil Kapadia Guest: Lindsay Jones Associate Producer: Mike Wargon Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, my name is Kevin Clark. I'm the host of a new football podcast called Slow Newsday. I want to tell you about it. On Mondays, Lindsay Jones and I will recap the weekend in football that was, as well as look ahead to what's next. On Wednesday, the normal Slow Newsday, the thing you've been watching for years, current players, current coaches, current analysts talking about the football world. And on Friday, it's a wild card.

Could be some college football. Could be more pro stuff. It's a video podcast so you can watch it on Spotify or listen to it wherever you get your podcasts. Follow on Spotify. It's Slow Newsday. With the Scramble, I'm Sheila Kapadia. Coming to you on the Ringer NFL feed every Thursday with the guest. Today, my guest is my friend, the Ringer's very own Lindsay Jones.

And I'm glad I have Lindsay on today because I just got back from a first grade school visitation. Lindsay, I'm not made out to be in a first grade classroom. Like they did a story. It got to the end and I'm like, I wasn't paying attention at all. I have no idea what happened to the turkey. Those little seats. Like I can't get in and out of those little seats. My daughter's saying, here's the glue.

Do I look like a man who knows how to use a glue stick? I mean, I'm like, I was lost in there for an hour. I know you've got a first grade visitation coming up. I think you'll be better adjusted than I am. Yeah, I've done a couple volunteer days, and I chaperoned a first grade field trip this year, which was wild. God bless those teachers, man. I was, I like needed to nap for hours when I got back from chaperoning a first grade field trip. But yeah, we're having Thanksgiving lunch at my daughter's school.

So it'll be all. all the kids and cafeteria-style turkey and gravy. So it'll be, it'll be fun. There you go. You can report back. I think you'll do better than I did. Yeah, and I'm with you on the teachers. Like, you're in there for 45 minutes and you're like, oh, my God, they do this every single day with these kids. They're not paying attention and talking. So thank you. Shout out. Shout out to all the teachers. Well, not to make this just a first grade podcast, but our school is doing like a very heavy writing emphasis school-wide. And so they're a learning about writing and they're doing narrative writing and opinion writing. And Lena's working

on information writing right now, which is like writing about facts and stuff. So as an editor, there's somebody who's transitioning to becoming an editor. It's been, it's been really eye-opening. So I feel like a lot of the skills that she's learning, I'm passing on to my colleagues here. They got to have you in there. They got to have you in there as a special guest. All right, first grade, I'm out of the first grade classroom. I'm behind the mic with Lindsey. We're going to keep it simple today. I was thinking, what do we do today?

It's week 11. There's like eight to 10 teams that are quickly, you know, becoming irrelevant. But that might not mean that they're not interesting. There's like eight teams that are probably, you know, already thinking about playoff matchups. And then there's this group in between. So here's what we're going to do. We're just going to pick the three people we each think are the most interesting for the remaining eight weeks of the NFL season. That's all the direction it was.

It could be players, coaches, GMs, mascots, whatever you want to do. The three most interesting people, the rest of the way they might have jobs on the line. It might be players with their legacies, whatever. So that's what we're going to do. I think it's going to be fun because I was like, you know what? These are some people that maybe I haven't talked about a lot on here. Maybe they're not the most notable people. Maybe some of them are.

And so we'll get a chance to talk to them here. And then we'll finish with the mailbag. You're the guest. So you start us off. Who do you have as one of your most interesting people for the final eight? Well, I don't think I'm going to go too far off the grid here. Unfortunately, I think most of my picks are guys that we've already kind of been talking about because I think the people who have so much at stake, it's because we've been talking about them already a lot. Like, I don't have a ton of

dark horses here. But the first guy that I have is Josh Allen. And I have him on my list because he was my preseason MVP pick. He was still my midseason MVP pick reluctantly. And, you know, this to me really felt like this was his first first. real MVP chance this season. And he was living up to that through the first six, seven weeks of the season. The last couple weeks, we've had the elbow. And now we've had a couple games where you start going, oh, we're seeing kind of that bad version of Josh Allen now. So I think this race is far from over in terms of the MVP race. So he can get back in it. But there's so much at stake now for him, for the bills to survive this midseason lull that they're in.

And, you know, he's had a negative EPA the last two games, back-to-back games, multiple interceptions. And it's not just that he's throwing interceptions. He's committing turnovers in those really high leverage critical situations that are now costing his team games. And we know that he is capable of taking this team on his back, kind of single-handedly winning games. And we need to see that version of Josh Allen over the next, you know, six to eight weeks of the year. I mean, we might get a snow game this weekend, right? I don't know if it's going to snow on Sunday or it might snow before. All the questions right now are like.

There's going to be a lot of snow to get into the stadium. Yeah, like can the Browns get there? Could the bills get out if they wanted to move the game? So yeah, I mean, the conditions aren't necessarily setting up great for Josh Island, you know, all of a sudden throw for 400 yards and five touchdowns. But I just think this is, if he is that guy that so many of us believed that he was going to be this year, this is his time for him to prove it. Yeah. It would be fun to watch them playing. I love the snow games.

It would be fun to watch that. But I'm with you. I mean, certainly he's got, you know, once they made that Bond Miller trade and it was like, all right, it's clear. They're saying, let's go win the Super Bowl right now. And Bond Miller has been fantastic for them. And they've had some ups and downs. And yeah, he's had sort of these head scratching mistakes the last couple weeks,

like you mentioned in high levered situations in the red zone where you're going, what is going on here? And then it's like the other, you know, 35, 40 times he touches the ball. You're like, all right, that's the guy who, like you said, just puts the team on his back, whether he's running, whether he's throwing. So I still have faith in the bills. I feel like the bills are going to be there at the end.

Like you said, the midseason predictions we had to make. I'm like, I had that winning the Super Bowl before the season. I'm not coming off of that. I think just the way he plays, like he doesn't have a second, you know, another dial where it's like, oh, I have this kind of serious, whether it's serious or not elbow injury. I'll play a little bit differently this week. Nope, he's trying to punch the ball out of the defensive backs and after an interception.

So I'm just kind of like, that's the guy you're going to win or lose with. If you're a Bill's fan, you're like, I'll take this guy every week. He's got the high ceiling. And to me, it's not even like the mistakes. He can cut those down a little bit. But I feel like his playing style is more. I'm going to make some of these mistakes, but don't worry on the other plays, I'm going to make up for it. And in the end, when you balance it all out, there's going to be way more good than bad.

So I think that Bill's team, they're going to get a little healthier, I think, down the stretch, Tredavius White, you would assume, would come back at some point. Some of their guys on defense should come back. And I think offensively, even last year, you know, like I was thinking about this. Last year, they had little lulls too during the season. Like, I think at the end of the year, they were 10th in offensive DVOA. And then the playoffs, they're just like, they looked unstoppable. They looked like the highest ceiling offense you could ever see.

And so I feel like they sort of know what it takes to get out of this. and that they're going to be okay. But that's a good one because when the expectations are so high, I mean, listen to the conversation we're having MVP Super Bowl. Like, those are the expectations. If you get to the divisional round, if you're losing the championship round, you're probably going to be a little disappointed if you're a Bill's fan.

So that's a good one to start us off. All right, I'm going with another quarterback here. And this was a huge storyline going into the season. And that's Lamar Jackson, his contract, right? He grabbed the guy sign. What did it say? Pay the man or whatever, the one. The one game there.

I think it also said to pay Rashad Bateman, which is a conversation for another time. But, yeah, he's still paying attention. It said it had like number seven and number eight, I think, on the sign. Okay. That's amazing. He's not playing anymore. They don't have to worry about paying him. Lamar Jackson bet on himself and you're looking at this team.

They're third in offensive DVOA, which is only behind the chiefs and the dolphins. And like I was thinking, take other quarterbacks and put them into that situation. and how many quarterbacks are leading a top five offense right now? Like, it's a very short list. It might be Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar Jackson. I mean, you could certainly throw a couple guys in there in the conversation, but like their leading receivers. Mark Andrews, very good player.

Then it's DeVernay, Rashad Bateman, who you mentioned is out for the season, Isaiah likely and DeMarcus Robinson. And yet this is their best offense since that 2019 Super Bowl season. And so if you're Lamar Jackson, this is actually turning out pretty good for you. In terms of the contract, I mean, the ceiling is so high. Like if they make the AFC championship, if he gets in the MVP conversation, if they get to the Super Bowl, now it's, forget that Kyler Murray contract. Now it's, yeah, I'm going to be the highest paid player in the NFL.

And so he's only 26 years old. He's got so much at stake personally. And if you look at it, I like this site, unpredictable. It looks at like the betting markets. And it shows you kind of strength of schedule based on what the betting markets are saying. they have the Ravens with the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. So they're kind of an under-the-radar, sleepery team where they're six and three. They're in first place in the AFC North, and they've got this easy schedule coming up.

So I think Lamar is just a very interesting. I mean, the Lamar debates usually get out of hand very quickly because I feel like they go to extremes right away where you can't have a nuanced conversation about it. But if you're looking at guys who just have a lot to gain here and, The floor is probably already pretty high. I mean, if he's average of the rest of the way, he still has the case to be paid as a top quarterback. But man, if he just goes off in the second half of the season, then it's a totally different

conversation. We're having, and by the way, they haven't had playoff success with Lamar Jackson. They haven't gotten past the divisional round. So that's the other thing. Like, if you can take that next step as a team, then it's a different conversation around the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. Yeah, and it's going to be so interesting because they, when we talk about his contract, and how those negotiations are going to go

because there were negotiations somewhat throughout last season. But Lamar Jackson is representing himself. This is not going to be a traditional process by all of the reporting that was coming out of Baltimore and some of the national outlets over the off season was that Baltimore kept making offers and they were not necessarily low ball offers,

but not in that range of being the top paid player. There's a lot of stuff going on about guarantees. and how much of that contract is going to be guaranteed, those sorts of things. And I mean, you're absolutely right that he has bet on himself. So in terms of, you know, it's not totally insomilar to what Doc Prescott has done in the past where, you know, pushing his deal out. Right. route, they now have some complicated contract stuff now with Rokon Smith. Would they, could they get Lamar's deal done in time that they could franchise tag Rokhun Smith? Would they tag Rochuan and hope that

they can get it done with Lamar? It's going to be fascinating. And, you know, those of us kind of in our, in our chairs, right? We really respect Eric Acosta. He gets so much praise for the way that team is built and run and their finances. This is a challenge unlike anything they have faced. So it is going to be wild to see what goes on there. Yeah, you're right. It's like these situations, they don't get contentious until all of a sudden snap of the fingers and there's a report about something and you're going, all right, well, now something has to happen one way or the other.

But you're right. I mean, are they going to franchise tag him after the season going into next year? Are they going to what's his mindset? I mean, really, you know, he can, there's some criticism about or should he've had an agent or not. I mean, this is an interest. If you want to maximize kind of your earnings as a 26-year-old. quarterback was an MVP under their belt, you're kind of not incentivized to take a deal that's below

really like the top, the top quarterback deal in the NFL. Like they can tag him two times. And what's interesting about Lamar is, it's how young he is. I mean, they can tag him twice and he'll be 28 years old, 28 year old Lamar Jackson going on the open market. We've never seen a quarterback do that. What would that even be worth? I mean, like Kirk Cousins is the, you know, is the closest comparison. Or if you want to look at the Deshawn Watson thing, which is different. And I think the Watson thing did play a role in this. I mean, if you're Lamar and you're like, wait a minute, what did he get? And I don't get what he got. And, you know, look at like I've been, I've been kind of a model citizen in the face of the franchise and a great teammate and all this stuff. So you can

kind of see where he's coming from. So, yeah, I think Lamar is definitely going to be interesting. All right. Who do you have for number two on your list? All right. I'll go a non-quarterback for a second just to shake things up. But it is a guy that we've been talking about here. And I'm going with Jim Mersey for multiple reasons here. He has already been very volatile, right? I mean, he has already changed the course of his own franchise in terms of instituting a quarterback change, a head coaching change, the most wild interim head coaching change that we've probably ever seen.

Now back switching head coach again. So who knows what this guy is going to do? I think watching what is going to happen with the Colts, what's going to happen with Chris Ballard, their future draft situation. This is a guy, an owner, who has his hands involved in his team more than just about any owner does with any other team right now. He is going to tell us what he thinks. He's going to tell us what he feels.

He's going to say it on press conferences on Tarmax. He's going to say it on Twitter. So we're going to be watching. The other reason that I'm putting Jim Mersey is because he has been the first owner, and we've talked about this before on the podcast network on the ringer.com. He was the first guy to actually come out publicly on the record. against Dan Snyder. And he's not backing down from that stuff.

So he's very much positioning himself as a new kind of like leader in this space. And look, he's not as powerful as like Jerry Jones or Rubbercraft. But he is also, but he is powerful, right? Like he is, you know, he does have sway in that room. And the fact that at the owner's meetings about a month ago, Roger Goodell said, you guys need to be quiet. You guys need to not say anything. And Jim Mersey is like, I don't.

I don't care, man. I'm going to go talk to the Washington Post. I'm going to talk about this. As we come up to a potential second sale of a team within a calendar year, Jim Ursay is going to have a major, major hand in the future of kind of where the NFL goes now. And so that's why I'm putting him. I think there's a couple other owners who might be, could be in that mix, but he's my top one. That's a good one because he's been like, it's so rare for an owner to be in the news this much during an actual season. You know, like you mentioned it, the Dan Snyder thing, everyone's going, all right, finally, an owner speaking out about what I think a lot of people. I mean, I don't, there's consensus on nothing, but I don't know if there's like a group out there that's pro Daniel Snyder. I if there is, I don't know who it is. I know it's not commanders fans, you know, media members who are allowed to voice their opinions.

It is his attorneys as long as the checks are clearing and literally that's it. The people who are getting paid by him and that's it. Yeah, that's it. And so I think everyone looked at Erse when he spoke out about Snyder and we're like, all right, finally, someone with the guts to kind of do this, the old boys club, you know, somebody who can speak out about what should actually happen. And so he got credit for that. And then, but as a team owner with the way he's running his football team, it's like you said. I mean, it really feels like just sort of an irrational fan who's like, all right, Ryan's stinking it up. Hey, let's put Ellinger out there. He was good in the preseason.

All right, Elinger's bad. Let's get rid of the offensive coordinator. All right, the offensive coordinator's gone. Frank Reich, you're out of here. Hey, you know, Jeff Saturday, like I, you know, you're my buddy. You play for the team. You're a likable guy. Why don't you come on in here?

And Saturday won the first game. Let's see if it's going to last. I don't think it's going to last. But, yeah, he could go in any direction. I mean, he answered the question about Ballard at the press conference. And you just couldn't put anything into it because, like, what's he going to say in that spot? I mean, the previous week, he said Frank Reich was safe.

And so if this is a team with a high traffic and he looks at it and says, all right, we just need to go in a totally different direction, then who knows what the rest of their season could be like, what their off season could be like. And so he's a good one who was not on my list. I wasn't thinking about him, but he certainly makes sense. All right, I went more boring with a quarterback. But I think this is a good one. I'm going with Derek Carr. I mean, his reaction, our friend to Sean Reid wrote about it well on the athletic. right after the game. I mean, his emotions, his raw emotions during that press conference after

their loss last week to the Colts where it felt like kind of what's going on here? This isn't just like a typical quarterback reaction after a loss. And I know he was saying about what players kind of put their bodies through just to get ready for Sunday and the result is disappointing. Like, he's been one of these guys that it really feels like he has a loyalty to the organization he plays for, you know, like anytime there's been any questions about, is he going to get traded, is he going to go somewhere else? He's been pretty outspoken. No, like, this is my team. This is the team I've been with. Like, something you don't usually hear from professional athletes. Well, the season's been a flat out disaster. I mean, they're two and seven. They go all in with

the Devante Adams trade, the Chandler Jones signing. They're saying, we're not rebuilding here. We're going to go all in with Josh McDaniels. And they've been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Only the Texans have fewer wins than the Raiders. They'd have the second overall. pick in the draft if the season ended today, which is kind of nuts when you think about it. And so the offense hasn't been like, if you look at it statistically, it's been kind of more mediocre than terrible. The defense has been really bad, but they've blown, I think, three games where they've been up by 17 points.

They're 0 and 6 in one score games. And so I was thinking about it. If there's one quarterback I had to pick to be at sort of the new cycle this offseason about, hey, you know, teams X, Y, and Z are looking to trade for a veteran. and who's it going to be? What, you know, was Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. This all season, I think it would be Derek Carr.

I mean, it just feels like Josh McDaniels is not going to point the finger at himself and say, I didn't do a good job. We're going to run it back and I'm going to be a better coach next year. I think they're most likely going to make a move. But having said that, there's eight games left. And so, like, how Carr performs, how the locker room reacts to McDaniels,

the team success or lack of success, It can still go in a number of different directions. They're not going to make the playoffs, but let's say, you know, Carr lights it up in the second half of the season. And do the Raiders say, okay, well, you know what? We just needed some time. And we turned our season around. Do other teams say, wow, he was really good in the second half of the season? We will give up a first round pick and something else to trade for Derek Carr.

What does, you know, we talk about Jim Mersey, Mark Davis. I mean, what is his out? What does he want to do after the season? Is he going to say, I stick with McDaniels, let's trade car. If they have a top four pick, they could draft a quarterback. Tom Brady, I don't know what's going to happen to Tom Brady. I don't know if he's on your list or not on your list, but he's certainly interesting. I don't know if he's done after the season or wants to play somewhere else.

And if they trade Carr or do they trade Devante Adams? Like, I'm just rambling here. But there's like 10 different paths the Raiders could take depending on Derek Carr and what happens kind of in the next eight weeks here. Yeah, he's really, really interesting to me. And I have Josh McDaniels on kind of my list here, so we can kind of like fold Josh McDaniels in here as well because he's been given assurances, the reporting out of Las Vegas this week, because that he's been given assurances from Mark Davis that he'll be back in 2023, that they're not ready to blow this whole thing up. The interesting part were there, I mean, there's a bunch of interesting things there, but one of them is that him and Dave Ziegler came in together. They were kind of like a package deal.

So I don't think Mark Davis wants to blow this whole thing up, but like could you remove the coach, but not the GM? who came in together. Derek Carr feels like the one piece that could be removed from that. And he has been through some stuff. He's been through some stuff there with that franchise

from all of the head coaching changes. I mean, Dennis Allen was the head coach who initially started him, right? And then Dennis Allen ended up getting fired. I mean, he has been through so many coaching changes. He has been through a franchise move.

He's been through Antonio Brown getting into a fight. with his general manager. He's been through the team trading away, Khalil Mack, his best friend in the NFL. You know, he's been last year after the John Gruden, after John Gruden got fired, Derek really had to kind of like be the grown-up in that locker room too.

He had to shoulder so much of like the emotional burden of keeping that locker room together, speaking for the team, being like kind of the face of all this. So like he's been through a lot. So I get when he gets up there in the middle of this season, that's completely gone off the rails, why it's just kind of coming out. He's had to hold it together for a really long time through a lot of really, really bad stuff.

And this is what Tashon Reid at The Athletic Road that you mentioned that I thought was really important. It's almost like Derek can see that this is going to be the end for him, that he's going to be the guy who just based on the money. I mean, look at the contract. We talked about this a bunch before the season.

He got that extension, but it's funny money. He has no guaranteed money left on that deal after this year. So it would be very easy for the, Raiders to move on from him. And he's so loyal. Like, he is a Raider, right? Like, he loves that organization. But I do wonder if, like, he would be in demand. There would be teams who would want him. He would be a much better attractive option on the free agent or on either free agent market if the Raiders just pulled that plug or trade market than somebody like Carson Wentz was last year,

right? I mean, I would much rather have Derek Carr than Carson Wentz. I'd probably rather have Derek Carr than Russell Wilson right now. I don't think I would have said that six months ago. But I do wonder if there's a little bit like he's so in it right now. You know, he's so in it. But it's like not to say that he would be last year as Matthew Stafford, but like, you know, maybe it would be good to go somewhere else. And like get out of that Raiders mess. You know, get somewhere else, go somewhere that really wants you that maybe just different scenery, fresh start. Like maybe it could end up being a really good thing for him after this season. That said, I don't know how they kind of pull out of this, especially without Darren Waller, without Hunter Renfro for an extended period of time. Both of those

guys are on IR right now. It doesn't feel like Josh McDaniels has answers. He didn't really have the answers when he had the full complement of offensive players. I don't think he has him now when it's just Derek Carr and Devante Adams. They're coming to Denver this week. Josh is probably going to get booed a little bit. I'm guessing his return is. His return is a head coach to Denver, even though it's been a minute, people haven't forgotten. We've got very long memories here in the city. I think they could win that game, though. They've already beaten the Broncos once. So that could be a nice little uplifting moment if they can come in here and win in Denver. Yeah, what did Nathaniel Hackett say? Someone's got to win, right? Wasn't that his

quote? I mean, it doesn't have to. I can show them the parts of the real book about ties. Nine-nine tie or something. Yeah, that would be shocking. I'm with you. I mean, it would be surprising if they turn their season around in a meaningful way. I think Bill Barnwell was reading him today and was saying even their offensive numbers are really like reliant on third and fourth down success, which we know is harder to sustain than the early down. So even when you dig deeper into the numbers, it's like, all right, they're unlucky here, but they're kind of lucky here. They're probably sort of where they should be. And I'm with you. I think there would be a, I mean, we've seen with Derek Carr that it's kind of situational, you know, the certain, like, if you're

If he has a good offensive line and good weapons, he can really quarterback an efficient offense. And, you know, earlier in his career, not even earlier, like two, three years ago, he would take the checkdowns and wouldn't push it downfield. But he kind of changed that and evolved a little bit. And even last year and the year before, I think you saw him push the ball down field a little bit more. So, yeah, if you're a team out there who feels like the piece is in place, I mean, I'm just thinking off the Detroit Lions. Let's say they don't trade, you know, or they don't draft a quarterback. Like, they've got interesting pieces in place where you could say, yeah, he could probably be successful on a team like that. The New York Jets, who we may or may not be getting to later in this podcast are another team.

You know, they've got good sort of pieces around the quarterback. Well, do they have the quarterback? And those teams, there's always more of them than you think. By the time we get to February, you know, you mentioned it with Carson Wentz. Like, no one would have thought Carson Wentz would have netted a second in a potential second or third. And that's what the Colts got for him. even after the whole league knew that the owner was not going to allow him back in the building. It didn't matter.

They still got that for him. So it only takes one team. So, yeah, I think, you know, even Carr, not only the play, but the comments, the pro scheme, like, all of a sudden now, he's like, all right, keep your eye on this guy the rest of the way and see how he's reacting. All right? All right. All right. Yeah. So this is my last guy.

Tua Lagoa. He's like the most interesting guy in the NFL to me right now. I'm not quite ready to, like, have the Tua MVP type of conversation, mostly because, like, Patrick Mahomes is a human being, in phenomenal football player who exists on this planet, maybe not even a human being. But as long as Patrick Mahomes is doing Patrick Mahomes things, and I think he's going to for this year, it's hard to, like, really have a serious conversation about some of these other more of, like, the up-and-coming fringe QBs in that discussion.

That said, there is nobody playing quarterback right now outside of Patrick Mahomes better than Tua. And it is for real. These numbers are not fluky. And I am so interested to see where the Stelfand's offense goes, and specifically Tua goes over the second half of the season. It's just been wild the turnaround that he has had. Narratively, the way that the entire NFL public views him, you know, the college football contingent is kind of back on like, we always loved this guy what you guys didn't believe

us and here he is. The discourse has been really, really interesting because so often these young quarterbacks, if the start of their career just like doesn't go the way that it, we all intended, you know, imagined it would or they intended it that it was going to for injuries and coaching changes or whatever, it's so hard to get out of that, right, to see a guy in his third year kind of take this leap where you've had these, you know, so much turmoil through the start of his career. I mean, his organization was trying to get rid of him. And now it's like, you know, this is the guy we're going to build around. Yeah. So I just, I love it for him. It's been really fun to watch.

His relationship with Mike McDaniel, he was miced up this week. Did you see, did you see the Tua mic'd up? It was just like very like heartwarming just to like watch kind of just the way that these two guys interact on the sideline. And, you know, we've, we've kind of read about it throughout the season. Katie Baker did a really good profile on Tua this summer for the ringer, where, you know, really kind of got into like that relationship and the type of coaching that McDaniel's giving to her that he's never really had before in his life. Kind of a lot of like positive, you know, he's just kind of surrounded by positivity. There was this really cute scene where he was, they were trying to decide a play. And Tua was like, I like whatever play you think will get us the best chance to score a touchdown.

And McDaniel, like, thinks about it and thinks about it. He goes, okay, left hash. And then sure enough, next play, it's a touchdown. And it's like everybody's, everybody's jumping. And like, yes, I'm going to watch all that. the stats and stuff. I want to see if Tyree Kill is going to get over 2,000 yards. I want to, you know, I'm interested in what their offensive design looks like now that they actually have a running game. The Jeff Wilson, the Jeff Wilson trade was very underrated in terms of all the

firepower that happened on the trade deadline. Seems like it's paying off. So I'm really fascinated. But to a man, he is just, he is like 1A, 1B with most exciting players, interesting players to watch for me over the second half. Yeah, I'm glad you chose him because I think they've, we would have looked dumb if neither of us chose him. I was like, well, I talked about the dolphins on Monday's pod, but he was like on my initial list. So I like to the play sheet on him this week. Go go check that video out. Yeah.

Yeah. So I mean, he absolutely like has to be on this list. I mean, talk about one of the stories of the season. There's nothing I was more wrong about. Well, maybe the Broncos were going to be in the playoffs. So I was wrong about that. We'll get there. We'll get there.

We're going to suck. Yeah, I thought the Seahawks were going to suck. I was wrong about that. And I thought that this Dolphins thing was not. going to work. I thought Tyree Kill was going to be frustrated. I thought, you know, Tua was going to be okay, but not great. I thought they were going to win like eight games. And the numbers are honestly, when I was going through him this week, I was shocked at just the games he's played. It's not just like they've been kind of good. Like, they've produced like

a top 10 league-wide game in three of the games he's played. I mean, they are just going up and down the field on people week in and week out. And I think Mike McDaniel deserves credit for that. Like you mentioned, the supporting cast deserves credit for that, but Tua deserves credit. I mean, it's not like you can just plug anyone in there and they're going to be good. We saw a little bit of it. And it's not totally fair because it's small sample with Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson. But it certainly looked different in those outings than it's looked with Tua in there. And so it's going to be really fun the final six weeks because I was looking at their schedule. They've got the Niners defense, the Bills defense, the Patriots defense,

and the Jets defense in their final stretch of their schedule. I mean, those are all top five, top six defenses. And the last three, they've played the Lions, Bears, and Browns, which are arguably, you know, like three of the worst defenses right now. But they've torn them up. You know, like, they haven't just squeaked by bad defenses. You're right. They've been handling business.

Yeah. Yeah, they scored over 30 in each of those. And it's felt, it feels sometimes you watch it be like, cool, they left some plays on the field. Like, they could be getting 40s, 50s. in some of these games. So yeah, he's absolutely got to be in there. He's been a fun story for the season. You know, sometimes there are surprises or there are these arguments we all have in August, and then you kind of see what actually happens. And he's been one of those guys who has been pretty polarizing. People have had strong takes, and there's no doubt he's been fantastic so far.

So that's a good one. All right. I'm going to go a little bit on the other end of the spectrum here. I teased it with the Jets. I think Zach Wilson is very interesting going down the stretch. I mean, there's a few things that can happen here. One is he plays well. They make the playoffs. Jess fans are like, oh, this is the best year we've had in a long time. We don't have to worry about quarterback going into next year. That would be great for you, Jets fans.

There's another scenario. There's one in which they don't make the playoffs. And everyone looks at it and knows the reason why they didn't make the playoffs is because the quarterback who currently ranks 35 quarterbacks in EPA for pass play is the reason why. He's had some moments. Don't get me wrong. I feel like with Wilson, when the ball comes out quickly and he knows where to go, it's good.

The longer he holds onto the ball, the more nervous you get about something bad happening with Zach Wilson. And so if that goes the other way and they don't make the playoffs, then ownership, Joe Douglas, like, they've got a serious decision on their hands. Do they look at it and say, well, Josh Allen, you know, it didn't happen for him until year three. And so Zach Wilson is sort of a talented, toolsy player. Let's give him some more time. We've invested a lot in him. Or do they say, like, we're tired of waiting as a franchise. And we've got a great defense.

We've got wide receivers. We'll have a good offensive line next year. We'll have good running backs. We have a good play caller. Like, we need to make a move for someone like Derek Carr or whoever else might become available and just kind of pull the plug on the Zach Wilson experiment. I mean, you don't see that a lot in the NFL. We're after a year or two.

It seems just like, sorry. We're moving on. Usually the quarterback gets more time, but it's kind of a unique situation there with all the pieces they have around him, the talent they have on the roster, as many first round picks as they've had in recent years. Like, they kind of have an opportunity where if they feel like they can pounce at a quarterback

who's going to be an upgrade, that they at least have to consider it. So Zach Wilson, I mean, they're talking about guys who have a lot like just on the line over the next two months. He's got to be at the top of the list there. I mean, this week especially. I mean, heading into that second game against the Patriots,

because the last game against the Patriots, which was only, what, three weeks ago? Three weeks ago, right? Three weeks ago, yeah. They played the Patriots, they played the bills, and then they had their buy. He was terrible. He was the reason they lost that game,

the interceptions that he threw in that game. He was not giving them a chance. He was making terrible decisions. He was getting picked off on throwaway plays. I mean, it was terrible. So we know what Bill Belichick can do against young quarterbacks that are, want to make poor decisions.

he's very good at forcing rookie quarterbacks or young court he's not a rookie, young quarterbacks to see ghosts, just ask Sam Darnold and so this is a huge week for him. I mean, just absolutely huge. Because if they win this game, that's going to put them in a really good spot to potentially make a wild card.

If they lose this game, it's going to be much more difficult for them to get, to stay in that wild card race. So I totally agree. They're going to be such an interesting franchise because we even saw last year, I mean, they were trying to make bigger moves. Like, they were, like, they weren't just on this, like,

we're going to do this slow, conservative build through the draft. Like, no, they tried to get Tyree Kill. Tyree Kill picked the no-income tax in Florida, right? They tried. So they've been trying to make these really aggressive moves. So they're not a team that's willing, that I think is just going to, like, sit idly by if they think they can be in it to make a major, major move.

The Josh Allen example is really interesting, because, I mean, this is probably a bigger conversation about quarterback development. I think he's enough of a unicorn that he's probably going to end up getting GMs and coaches from other teams fired when they try to replicate exactly what the bills did. I respect so much about the bill's plan and the way that they systematically addressed all of the different pieces of their roster to make Josh Allen more successful. But a lot of it was just Josh Allen getting better and fixing some of the accuracy issues and the fundamental technique issues. Just those type of things. Some of that wildness is still in him, right? We just talked about it, right?

I mean, some of that stuff, you're just never going to coach out of him. But if we're expecting, like, every first-round pick who is not very good for his first couple of years to just make this leap, just like Josh Allen did, I think that would be foolish for a lot of teams. Yeah, it's, you know what, it's a great point with Allen. And I was thinking the same thing, like, even going into the season, it felt like a lot, there were so many fan bases going, well, look at what happened with the bills. and Josh Allen. We had a couple more examples of it this year, not to the same degree, but like Tua is in his third year

and we feel differently now. It's kind of a matter of circumstance and coaching. Jalen Hertz is another guy. Like, yeah, he showed more signs. Don't get me wrong. Like Jalen Hurts last year showed way more than Zach Wilson has this year and probably the same for Tua.

But there have been a couple more examples of players in it's taking until year three where they kind of go off. I tend to agree with you. I mean, if I will, like in the decision-making chair. I'm like, we're not basing any decisions on what happened with Josh Allen in year three. I think that's going to be the exception. But as we get a little more data, like, I don't know, maybe two years we're having this conversation and we're reeling off

like eight quarterbacks. So it took until year three and then they got really good. I think most of the time we've seen it's happened in year two, though. The common thread, though, through those three guys that we talked about is that a lot of it's institutional. It's not just that the player became differently and all of a sudden became like a different player or better style player. It's because the investments that were made around him, the offense that was put in place for him. So if we're talking about that for, okay, let's do that for Zach Wilson. Okay, so then what else are you doing to that receiver room to your running back core? Like, what leap does Mike McFloor take as a play caller next year? Those sorts of things. And how much of it is just like he needs to make better decisions

when he has the ball in his hands? It's a great point actually. Because because they've already done those things for them in year two. Like you said, I mean, I couldn't come up with a list of, like, no one's making the argument that Zach Wilson isn't in a good situation right now. You could have made that point with the other guys. I mean, Tua didn't have a coach. He didn't have Tyree Kill. Jalen Waddle was a rookie. Jalen Hurtz didn't have A.J. Brown last year was the first year with the new play caller.

And they didn't have institutional buy-in into them as the starter as a rookie, too. I mean, too, it was coming off of that massive injury. Jalen Hertz was like, yeah, you're going to. be our backup here and see what happens later, you know? So yeah, that's the other thing where like the Jets have said, you are our guy from the day that he got here. And now we're through year three and going, oh, I don't, you know, still one of the worst QBs in the league. Let's see where this goes. So really, really interesting team. I'm glad you, I'm glad you picked the Jets there. All right. Very good. Let's take a quick break and we will come back with the mailback.

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Now we get to the mailback, a reminder. You can email us at the scrambled mailbag at gmail.com or just tweet at me if you want. I mean, listen, you don't want to be on Twitter. Probably I don't want to be on Twitter. So if you want to email, that'll be a lot easier. But whatever is easiest for you are. And I knew I had to use this first one because we've got Lindsay on. This is from DeLeep says, what are the options?

options for new Broncos ownership. This situation is a dumpster fire, and partly not they're making coach GM years of losing and partly they're making extending Russell Wilson. Can they, would they buy Russell Wilson out, fire George Payton, which he thinks is ill-advised, fire Hackett, elevate the defensive coordinator, Evereaux, burn the whole thing down, it's depressing, he said. So I wanted to get your take on it, just the one thing I'll say with Wilson. that's not happening.

I mean, he got a hundred and twenty-four. It would be, it would have been like he signed a one year, a hundred and twenty-four million dollar deal with the Broncos, because that's what he got guaranteed at signing. So he's not going anywhere so we can get that out of the way. But what do you think about the other questions there as someone who's plugged into Denver? Yeah, it's depressing is the right word.

And I think, and I've been, you know, every time I'm out at things for my kids' school or, you know, running with my friends. or whatever, there is a lot of discussion about just like, it's such this letdown because it's been really depressing around here for a while. And, you know, it's been out that the Broncos playoff drought now, I think is second now, only, or in the AFC behind only the Jets, I believe, right? I mean, it's, like, it's, it's rough times, right? And it's just been quarterback after quarterback and, you know, fans are frustrated. And what's been so weird about this season is that

their defense is so good. And, oh, my gosh. So you would think, like, they have to be winning some of these games. If they could just score, like, 17 points a game, they'd be right in the playoff hunt. And they can't get there. You know, it's 10 points. You know, it's 10 points against the Titans last week. I mean, they've been struggling to get to multiple touchdowns a game. And that part has been really, really frustrating because Russell Wilson was supposed to solve that problem, was supposed to make this a competent, if not explosive offense.

And we're barely, I don't think it's in the competent range. You mentioned Nathaniel Hackett earlier saying, you know, somebody's got to win this game against the Raiders. I mean, his Wednesday press conference this week was like just full of like doom and gloom kind of stuff. Somebody, I think somebody asked him, like, what's your offensive identity? He said, well, it's not good. It's like, well, yeah, no bleep, dude. Like we've all been watching. We can see that.

So the problem is like, okay, there is no off ramp for Wilson. They are committed that Russell Wilson is going to be their quarterback through at least 2024. There is no out in this deal that he has signed until 2024. His 2023 and 2024 salaries are already guaranteed. The way they finagled the cap in it isn't terrible. I mean, they're not committing an undue amount of money of their cap next year and in 2024. I think it's a $22 million dollar cap at next year, $25 million in 2024. So it shouldn't preclude them from spending other places.

So I think it comes to coaching. George Payton, the general manager, has a ton of goodwill in that building still, especially, I think, for the way that he's drafted defensively. I think we can still go back in hindsight and talk about the 2021 draft when they were sitting there with the top 10 pick, did not take a quarterback. They took Patrick Sartan, who is going to be, he should be an all-pro this year. I mean, he's, yeah, he is awesome. It was a little bit easier to stomach when Justin Fields was bad.

Now that Justin Fields is going, oh, Justin. Fields. Like, there's that guy. That is going to be hard because if Justin Fields becomes a really, really great quarterback in the NFL, and that's not, that's not certain's fault, right? Like, that he's not a quarterback. But it's just when we're talking about positional value and the way that they're, who they're getting and the way that you're spending your money and all that sort of stuff, they just have to figure out a way to fix this offense. I think a lot of this is going to be on Russell Wilson, who is exactly the same player in Denver that he was in Seattle, the same shortcomings, the same strengths, just less athletic.

And it is going to be on him to figure out a way to change his game, to evolve as a quarterback, to evolve as a decision maker, to get his ego in check in a way that he will do something different and accept some sort of different sort of offense than maybe he envisions himself running. And I thought about putting him in the top half of this podcast when we're talking about the most interesting guys, the guys that have the most at stake, but I knew we'd talk about him here because one of the things that you posed to me when we were pre-show planning here was like, you know, the guys who could change their legacies. Russell Wilson has been talking about his legacy

forever, but he's absolutely been doing it since the day that he came to Denver, right? He talked about wanting to play another 10 years. He talked about wanting to win multiple Super Bowls. So a lot of this is on him now. But the changes that the Broncos have to make now, I don't think they want to fire Nathaniel Hackett after a year. They've been through so many head coaches here. They don't want to have to do that again. But it is clearly not working. Offensively, right? They don't have an identity. They're not maximizing their quarterback at all. And part of that is the quarterback himself. They're very injured offensively, on defense, too. But like, they're very injured. That's one thing. But that's probably the piece that is going to change. It probably has to change.

Yeah. I mean, like you said, they don't have a ton of options. I mean, if you would have told me they already got this defense with Russell Wilson before the year. I would have said we're talking about them as Super Bowl contenders. I mean, it's a top five defense. Even, you know, they traded Bradley Chub, and I was like, what's it going to look like? And they played great last week. And we'll see if they can sustain that. But it's, you're not, yeah, you're not getting rid of Wilson. And like you mentioned, the GM, you're probably keeping. And so then it comes down to the coach. When we were talking about Sean Payton on the Monday show on this feed, I was kind of like, that could be interesting. You know, Sean Payton in Denver, but then they already traded their first round pick for Russell Wilson.

So you're going to have to trade for Sean Payton. So I wouldn't even think that he would be an option. So it gets tricky. I mean, I would think they would look for, you know, they're probably going to make a coaching change unless it's something like, all right, Nathaniel Hackett brings in offensive coordinator X and this person's going to call the plays. And, you know, Hackett's just going to focus on whatever if they don't want to make a head coaching change.

But, you know, one and done certainly would not surprise. me, and then you just have to find a head coach who you feel like can fix it. But like you mentioned, a lot of it, it feels like is on Russell Wilson. I mean, he's playing poorly. I couldn't believe his athleticism. Like, it looks like it doesn't exist now. Two years ago, he ran for over 500 yards. Like, it wasn't that long ago.

So I don't know if there's anything about him that's going to change, that can change. You're kind of just hoping for the best case scenario. And I will say, defense can be volatile year to year. But if you look at their roster, I mean, they're bringing back most of their defense next year. I was just looking at their free agents. And the only guys who have played more than 50 percent of the snaps on defense this year who are free agents are Kareem Jackson, Draymont Jones, and Alex Singleton. So it's like most of your core is still going to be back.

And then, you know, at Giro Everow, that's an interesting sort of, I don't know if Jenga piece is the right word, but he's done a fantastic job for them. Does he get head coaching opportunities? He's getting onto that short list. It is the time of year where all the national writers are putting out their list of guys that should be interviewed.

I think Tom Palisero, NFL media, put his out today, and Jero Evereaux was on it. I know there's a lot of people in Denver now who are getting nervous, and like, this guy's going to get a head coaching job. We should just keep him, elevate him now, replace him.

And like, he's been great. And I remember talking to a lot of folks around the Rams last year who love this guy, players love him. So that might be tempting, but like, does that fix the offense? What is your plan to fix the offense?

So I don't know that's the answer. That would be an interesting option. If they talked to him and he's like, hey, I know this offensive coach who's fantastic, who can come in and fix this thing and then they elevate him and you keep the same defense in place. I mean, it seems like the team plays hard for him and they're certainly very well coached. I mean, head coach is a different animal than defensive coordinator, but that would be interesting too. So those are the options. Sorry, DeLeep and any other.

Broncos fans. Yeah, there's not a ton of, I would say the one other potential, I mean, it's not really an option because I think we know that change is coming. But the idea of this question, right, was that what is new ownership going to do? What happens in that stadium over the next month is going to be really, really telling from like a hearing people being upset, seeing empty seats. The Broncos, I think, have the longest sellout streak or one of the longest sellout streaks. I mean, it goes back decades and decades.

But if people are not showing up, if they're speaking with their dollars, right, and with their feet, I think, you know, if they're not showing up for games, if there's 10,000 empty seats in December, new ownership is going to listen to that. And they are going to hear that. They're going to see that. They're going to say, this is what we spent $4.6 billion on right now. And that, I think, could help actually spur some sort of change. Broncos fans, I gave my MVP first month of the season. I mean, I love, they were just all over it from the get-go. Three.

That how screwed up the coaching staff, the game management was. I loved what they were doing there. I loved the crowd shots. So good job by them. Hopefully, hopefully better times ahead. But no guarantee. All right. Second question, Maxwell asked, hey, guys, what would be your dark core Super Bowl pick?

He says, take away the top three, no chiefs, bills, or eagles. Who did you have for this one? Did you have a team in mind as a sleeper? Super Bowl pick, or do you want me to go first? Yeah, no, I mean, I guess it's actually kind of two teams that we've already talked about a little bit today on the first half of the podcast. I'm going to go either the Ravens or the Dolphins. I think these are two really well-built teams with really good quarterbacks. They're really well-coached. And if you catch, I mean, I think it's going to be really hard to knock off the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

If the AFC Championship game is there, I will pick the Chiefs in all of those matchups. Something weird happens early in the playoffs, you get one of those weird Patrick Mahomes games where he throws an interception late, you know, like in the, like in the AFC championship game last year. Right. You know, maybe one of these other AFC teams could sneak in there if the bills do not get out of this lull. I think it's weird that I pick two AFC teams because the NFC is wide open, right? I think the NFC is a lot.

You could pick almost any NFC team in the playoff field and make a case for them. But I'm going to be really interested to watch a couple of just that next tier down. of AFC teams if one of those teams are the really good quarterback or explosive overall offense can somehow sneak in there. Yeah, Maxwell said those three teams other than the Chief Spills and Eagles. So I wrote down 49ers, but I don't really think that counts as a sleeper. Yeah, they would like the second best odds, right? Yeah, they're right there.

So I just wanted to mention because he didn't mention those in his three. How about the Cincinnati Bengals? I feel like they're getting slept on a little bit. I mean, if you look at, there are three teams that are top 10 in offensive and defensive DVOA right now, and it's the Bengals, the Bills, and the Eagles. Like, they've had a pretty balanced team. They've sort of weathered the storm early on where it was like, all right, Super Bowl hangover. They weathered that.

Jamar Chase has been injured, but he's, I think, supposed to come back maybe in a couple weeks. I think week 12 was the report. So now I still like Burrow. I still believe in Burrow. Maybe the offensive line is going to improve as they play. play more snaps together. You get chase back. I just like the teams that have the offensive firepower.

I mean, that's why the dolphins should be mentioned. And so I would put the Bengals on that list. And they're well coached defensively. You know, they lost Chedobie Awuzier for the year with an injury at corner. So that one's going to hurt. But they are well coached. They can come up with different game plans based on the opponent. So I thought I would give the Bengals some love.

They are not scared of the Chiefs, too. They're not scared of the Chiefs. There you go. Yeah, they did it last year. get to see that game. They play again in a couple weeks. Oh, okay. There you go.

Yeah, they have, that's the one thing. They have, I said the Ravens have the easiest schedule based on the betting markets. The Bengals have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. So to get in, I think right now they're kind of like a 50-50 proposition to get into the playoffs. But if they get in, I think they can be dangerous. All right. Last one. Garrett asks, what's more likely the AFC East getting three teams in the playoffs or the NFC East getting three teams in the playoffs?

What do you think? I mean, I think the AFC East teams are better. I'm still, so to get three NFC East teams, right, so we would get Eagles, Cowboy, well, God, the numbers, but like, the numbers with the Giants, they were so strong. I mean, they won so many unlikely games in the first half that just like the numbers seem to be working in their favor. I just have a hard time, like, really believing that all three of those teams are good enough to get in. So, okay. So what's more likely? All right, you're the numbers guy.

You're the odds guy. You go first. Yeah, here, let me give you some other percentages and then you decide. I just looked this up right before. So the NFC East per football outsiders, the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants all have over a 70% chance to get in. And the AFC East, the Bills, dolphins, and jets all have over a 70% chance to get in. And then you throw in the Patriots who are at 4%. 44% to get in.

So a couple of fun, the most interesting thing there is the Jets. Their kind of percentages are very different with the betting markets and football outsiders. Like if you like the metrics and the advanced stats, you're feeling good as a Jets fan. If you look at does the public or whatever really believe in this team, the answers no,

it's 52%. So it's like a 50-50 chance there. And the Giants are different because it's what you mentioned. The Giants, whether you believe in them or not, they built up just this huge cushion. where there's seven and two where like you would, you know, they can kind of go 500 the rest of the way and still be fine. Like it would make it, it would take a major collapse for them not to get in, but it's not

unheard of. And then the Cowboys are sort of a wildcard where, as always, it feels like high variance. They could get to the Super Bowl or they could be out of the playoffs and we're talking about Sean Payton going to Dallas on like January 31st or something. So that, it's, I feel like this week is going to determine a lot of that. You get the Patriots. But the Patriots Jets game is going to, because the Jets win this game, it's going to flip a lot of those percentages, right? I mean, I think the numbers will change a lot after this week.

And I think Cowboys Vikings this week, too, will also, I think, determine the way I think I feel about the Cowboys after they lost last month to the Packers. And this is another pretty tough game. So I guess just I'm just going to think about like percentages and numbers wise. I'll say it's most likely the NFC East. I don't feel great about it, though. Like, I think I'd rather see the three AFC East teams in there than maybe getting all three of those NFC teams in the field. But, look, numbers are numbers, right?

Stats don't lie? People lie? Betting markets lie? I think they both, really. It could happen in both the divisions. I mean, when we did our thing on the ringer.com, I'm thinking about it now. I had the Patriots getting in.

So that was three in the AFCs because they had the dolphins and bills. and I had all three NFCE's team. So I think there's a good chance that both of them get three in. I'm with you, though. I would lean towards the NFCE just because I am a believer that the Cowboys are a really good team, and I don't think they're going to totally choke down the stretch. And the Giants built up that lead, and the Eagles are, you know, they have one loss. So I don't know if they lost the rest of their games.

I guess they wouldn't get in, but they're kind of off the board with Fandul, where you can't even bet on them making the playoffs because they're pretty much a lock, even though they haven't clinched. So we're on the same page there. All right, that'll do it for this episode of The Scramble. We're going to take next week off. It's Thanksgiving. So everyone have a great Thanksgiving.

We're not going to have a podcast for you on Thursday, but of course the rest of the feed will be filled up. Thank you to Lindsay Jones for joining me. Thank you to Mike Wargon for producing. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgobal. Stay tuned for the Ringer NFL preview show on this feed on Friday and I'll be back Monday night with Ben Solac with extra point taking. Talk to everyone next week.