The Ringer NFL Show - Lessons From the Season and the Ringer’s 2019 NFL Draft Guide | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 390)

Episode Date: January 24, 2019

With the Super Bowl a week away, the guys reflect on the lessons they’ve learned from the 2019 season (00:00). Then Danny Kelly stops by to discuss The Ringer’s 2019 NFL Draft Guide, including Kyler Murray’s potential, underrated players to keep an eye on, and qualities to look for in a draft prospect (00:00). Hosts: Robert Mays, Kevin Clark, and Danny Kelly Check out the Ringer's 2019 NFL Draft Guide here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up guys and welcome to the Ringer podcast network. I'm Liz Kelly. Here are a couple pieces to check out on the ringer.com before the end of the week. First up is Kevin O'Connor, who's writing about how the Denver Nuggets built a contender in a warrior's world. Then Chris Ryan and Justin Barrier have a rational conversation about Anthony Davis and the trade deadline. And finally, Robert Mays has 10 observations from the first Patriots Rams Super Bowl. Once again, you can check those articles out and tons more on the ringer.com. To the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin. How are you doing, bud? I'm okay. How do you feel about the Super Bowl by week? I really enjoy it. I used to hate it as a fan.

I used to hate it. As a fan, I didn't like it. I really like it as a reporter for two reasons. One, I was going to say it helps me recharge my batteries a bit, but that's not really true. I feel like it's as much work or more work this week because you're scrambling for stuff to write next week. But I do enjoy it just,

from a kind of being able to settle a little bit standpoint. That part is nice. I did forget that the Super Bowl wasn't on Sunday, though, when we were planning this podcast on Monday. I was like, so are we going to do our Super Bowl preview this week? I have no idea, like, no semblance for space and time right now. I love you, Robert, but you very rarely have semblance of space and time. That's true. That's correct. I'll give you that. All right. So what we are going to do this week, because the Super Bowl is not until next Sunday. And we'll have a lot of time to talk about the game between now and then, is talk about some of the lessons we learned just in general from this NFL season, from who was good, from who was bad, stuff that we can take into next year as teams

consider how they want to build in the off season. So, yeah, we've talked about a lot of these things, I'm sure, at some point or another, but we're just going to run through them right now. So Kevin, why don't you start us off? Yeah, so I think that there's a number of things to look at this year. And I think that the overarching one is that we found out this year that quarterbacking can be easy. I don't mean it is easy. I mean, it can be very easy. And coaches and schemes and just little things can make a bad quarterback average and an average quarterback look good and a good quarterback look great. You know, I go back to this thing that I saw before this season that when a team runs an RPO in 2017, the league-wide completion percentage was 78%. Okay. So the best,

Drew Brees, who can get in the low 70s and completion percentage, is the best ever at completing passes. So an RPO can make a quarterback more efficient than the greatest quarterback at completing passes in the history of football. So I start, and you start to build from there, and you look at all the easy yardage. And this is not just an RPO thing. This is about play action.

This is about just easy yardage. I think that there's something to be said for the fact that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and Josh McDaniels have for a long time cornered the market on just finding easy yardage on offense. And now here comes Sean McVeigh. Sean McVey, I saw a stat the other day, I think Steve Palazzo had it. Jared Goff leads the NFL by a little bit in open throws inside the 10-yard line. He has 33 this year. Do you know how easy it is to live life when you have 33 open throws, wide-open throws, inside the 10-yard line?

So the fact that these guys are in the Super Bowl Really speaks to that sort of revolution How many easy throws there are now because of the rule changes Because quarterbacks are just coming in probably a little more accurate Because of sort of the 10,000 hour rule with seven on sevens and all that stuff But I just think that there are so many more easy throws now than there were 10 years ago And if you're not taking advantage of those things You are clearly not in the Super Bowl

I think that the 33 throws inside the 10 thing is nuts because because when you think about that offense, you think about stretching the field and using play action and kind of getting these wide open throws in huge swats of space, which there aren't in the red zone. So the fact that they can do both is why they're so good and so hard to stop. But I think schematically, the scheme helps as well. Because beyond the 10,000 hours, beyond the rules, everything else,

the game has spread out. The game has spread out horizontally. It's spread out vertically as we get these offenses that look like the chiefs that are this amalgam of a West Coast offense from the beginning of when people started running it and spread concepts from college. the game just opens up. And that's how throws get easier. So it's no surprise, even beyond the rules and all that stuff,

that the game is getting easier for quarterbacks just because coaches are making the game easier on themselves. And you think about just the middle of the field. It's something that I've discussed this before, but 50 years ago, George Pumpton wrote a book called Paper Lion. And in there, Raymond Barry talks about crossing the field and how he's done it once in his career. He went over the middle of the field

once in his career and Raymond Barry was one of the best receivers in the history of football and the reason you didn't do it is because there were essentially it was Thunderdome in there if you crossed the middle of the field you were liable to get your ass kicked

and by much bigger people by much more physical people helmet to helmet I mean nothing was called there and now you can build an offense around going over the middle of the field now anybody of any size can do it because of the way the rules have changed

because of the way the athletes the middle of the field have changed it's not as physical as a game of a game as it was So I just think that there's so many different things that combine to make quarterbacking easy. And if you're not riding that wave, you are lost. It was amazing. I rewatched the Patriots Rams Super Bowl, the first one yesterday and wrote about it.

And watching how far the receivers are from the formation was just incredible. Because when you watch the Rams now, those guys are standing two feet from the offensive tackle. And it's just so different because of how teams try to exploit different areas of the field. you don't see the best receivers in the NFL anymore, just stick outside the numbers. I mean, D'Ondra Hopkins does it a lot, but outside of him, teams are getting smarter because they have to.

It's remarkable how much it's changed in the last decade and a half. It really is. Yeah, I mean, I remember one of the big talking points when Mike McCarthy was fired was that Aaron Rogers was leading the NFL and throws outside the numbers. And 15 years ago, would be like, oh, what? Okay.

Who cares? That's fine. And now it's a fireable offense. So my first lesson, I think, kind of corresponds to that a little bit. And it's that I feel like more and more teams are going to be willing to wade into this kind of quarterback abyss where it's like, oh, man, we have a guy. He's pretty good.

We can give him $21 million. And that'll be our guy for the next four years. And I think because quarterback is getting easier, because we've realized how much of a ball and chain those $25 million quarterback contracts can be, you're going to see teams not retain Eli Manning one year longer than they should, not re-sign Blake Bortals, not hang on to Andy Dalton. I mean, Andy Dalton is a bad.

He's a decent quarterback, but that's the type of contract we're talking about. You know, we mentioned early in the season that Cincinnati is the type of team we could see moving on from a quarterback where we never

would have thought that before. Ryan Tannhill is the same way. So I just think that more and more teams are going to take chances because that also corresponds with the amount of teams that have hit on quarterbacks they've traded up for. You know, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes,

Sean Watson. So all those factors kind of coalescing into this idea that you don't need to commit to a quarterback that you don't think is the guy. If you feel like you have an infrastructure that can prop up anyone. So that's really fun, really funny, because I had the same sort of idea,

which is that one of the things we learned was just, it's not about not paying your quarterback, it's about not paying your crappy quarterback. And you see, I'm not strictly calling these guys crappy, but I don't think anyone agrees at this point that the Derek Carr contract is worth it. I don't think that the Maths Stafford contract is worth it.

I don't necessarily know about the Matt Ryan contract. He was very efficient this year, but we'll see how that shakes out with team building. Matt Ryan's really good. I agree. I agree. Yeah. Matt Ryan's really good. Matt Ryan is a significantly better player than Matt Stafford and Derek Carr. Let's put that.

Matt Ryan was awesome this year. And for some guys, it's like, oh, can he do it in this other system? Matt Ryan won the MVP with Cal Shanahan, but he also was fantastic this year with a coordinator that just got fired. Right. So I feel okay about Matt Ryan. I'm with you on that. I'm interested to see in the trajectory of the Falcons, I guess, is how I'll put that.

Totally. So, I mean, no one, the Saints should be in the Super Bowl with the $25 million quarterback. The lesson there is not don't pay your quarterback. The lesson is, if you're going to pay your quarterback, make sure he's worth $25 million. I don't think the Saints are going to ask for their money back for Drew Brees. You have to build an infrastructure, like you said, where you're going to hit on the third round rookie contract running back, like Alvin Kamar. You're going to hit on Michael Thomas, who's due for an extension at some point. they maximize Drew Breeze's career by building around him and paying him market value.

I think that's a lesson for everybody. And I feel like it's not, it's max, it's getting the right guy. It's picking the right guy. But it's also, if you're not sure it's the right guy, giving him every chance. Because I think that's what we're going to see with DAC, right? If they give DAC $25 million and they continue doing what they're doing offensively, obviously they fired Scott Lanahan. But if they don't kind of prop DAC up, then you're looking at that contract and it looks

terrible. If they find the right guy, DAC can be a $25 million quarterback. So it's not necessarily the choice you make on the player. It's making sure every single element of your organization makes that $25 million money well spent. With Russell Wilson, we've discussed this. They give Russell Wilson

$30 million in that offense. Is it worth it even if he's a $30 million player? And that's the type of stuff you have to answer if you're an organization. Hey, I had a press box debate the other day. I was watching I was watching Jared Gough. and I thought about this.

If you switch golf and Dak Prescott is Dak Prescott playing in the Super Bowl right now? Yes. I agree. I absolutely think he is. Who is the worst

quarterback on a rookie contract who would be playing in the Super Bowl right now for Sean McPay? I don't know if any of the rookies outside of Baker would be good enough yet.

Okay. Oh, so Rosen. I'm just trying to about Rosen, Darnold. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Process of elimination. Yeah. I don't think Trubisky would.

I agree with that. I think it's Mahomes, Prescott, Gough, Wence. I'm trying to think of relieving anybody out there. Yeah, it's Mario DeR Winston, no. Obviously, I think, I think Mayfield. Oh, Mayfield, I think Mayfield. I think Mayfield. I absolutely. Oh, my God.

He would be amazing. No, no, no, no. But I'm saying as a rookie, he is a rookie. Oh, sure. He's a, I don't know. Maybe. Deshawn Watson. And Watson.

Yeah. Yeah, I think, so with Dack, I think he'd be great in this offense. I think he'd be fantastic. I, he's, deck is a decent quarterback. And I thought that watching the game against Seattle is, man, he's making some throws. And I think his expected completion percentage in that game was 55% and completed 67% of his passes. It's like, I think it was a 10.7% difference, which would have been three percentage points higher than the highest mark in the league this year, which was Drew Brees. The difference between your expected and your actual completion percentage.

Like, that dude makes throws that he shouldn't have to make because that offense was so terror. triple. And I just think we have not seen how good he can be after his rookie year. I don't want to blow up anybody's spot this. I'm not going to name them. But there were people I was debating with, because I brought the question up. The people I was debating with did not think deck was very good. I think deck is pretty good. I think he's good enough to be a Sean McVeigh product. I totally agree. I think honestly, though, watching that Jared golf game, I can remember who said it on Twitter, I'm going to feel bad, not referencing them. But they said it was maybe the best game Jared Gough has ever played in the NFL. And it did

look like that in the stat sheet. But watching that game, I was like, I kind of agreed. The game, the best game I've ever seen him play, obviously is the Vikings game where he was just raining fire and he made like 10 ridiculous throws. But he made like five ridiculous throws in that Saints game. That was not easy sledding for him. And that throw to cooks. I mean, that dude can really sling it.

And I think he's pretty good. All right. What's your next lesson? I hate doing this. I feel like I'm the last person outside of it. It's going to be great. I'm like the last person outside of the NFL power. structure that is willing to admit this because I've tried to hold on for so long.

Wait. Running backs don't matter. Oh, wait. No. Wait, what? I have that too, but why are you reluctant to do that? Because I've always, because I wanted to believe it wasn't true. I mean, I know it's not, but like there are some guys that are just so fun to watch.

It was, it's hard for me to sit there and think, Todd Gurley doesn't matter. That's, that's a bummer. I'm sorry to hear that, but that's true. I know. I know. I know. C.J. Anderson and all his glory. Oh, hold on.

Hold on. So I think that running backs don't matter unless you have an abysmal one. Like, I think there's certain things that running back has to be able to do. Remember the Trent Richardson stuff where they would show the videos where he would just run in the wrong hole every time? Yeah. Like, you can't have that. Yes. And you also have the, the guy has to be able to catch out of the backfield.

Yes. I think that there are some running, obviously there are running backs that are better than others. I mean, that's not what I'm saying. I just feel like we've seen too many instances this year of guys stepping in and being just as good or better than the guys they were playing behind. Absolutely. I'm saying there's a baseline where the corner,

the running back has to be a certain, a certain, has a certain skill set, I guess, in 2018. So, 2019. So I think that there are a couple of things I want to unpack here, and I'm sure there are for you too. But there was a staff the other day. Was it for the divisional round?

for the Wildcott Institute of the Divisional Round, where it was like, well, five of the eight teams left have a first round running back. That is really, really terrible thinking and logic. It's the war,

it's very, very similar to, are you familiar with Bear Patrol from The Simpsons? No. Okay, well, basically, there's a bear.

And then there's one bear and they like spend millions of dollars in taxpayer money just to get, um, just to get the bear away. And then they have Bear Patrol. and then Lisa says,

well, just because I have this rock doesn't mean that's going to keep tigers away. And Homer says, Lisa, I'd like to buy your rock. And so that, I feel like that's kind of specious reasoning where like Mark Ingram is the reason the saints are good? Yeah, exactly. It's ridiculous. We're doing that now?

It's kind of connected. It's kind of tangential to the, if you run 50 times in a game, you are going to win, like that line of thinking that we debunked. to 10 years ago, but still somehow pops up everywhere. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's the only thing that really confuses me about this is that the Patriots who,

who have sort of corner the market on basic economic principles in the NFL did take a first round running back this year. I know, but that was just so bizarre. Every like two or three years, Belichick will do something in the draft where it's just like, what? Why? There's no explanation for it ever. I know.

I think the explanation, like, they've taken special teams guys in like the second or third round because I think they just see it as... Well, there's an explanation for that. No, but I think it's just like, you know what? We're this guy away and we're just going to take him and I don't care. I guess that's fair. A little bit of that. But Sony Michelle's like the third best running back on the Patriots.

It's really weird. But yeah, it's, and I think, you know, obviously the teams that have done this struggle this year, you know, I'm thinking about the Jags. The Jags are going to come up a lot on this podcast. I'm thinking about the Jags. I'm thinking about just how Leonard Fernett was not even a part of their plan this year when he was, it didn't work out. You know, obviously, Ezekiel Elliott's a good player,

but he's not the reason that the Cowboys' offense is good, and the Cowboys did nothing to help him. You know, Sequin Barclay played for a team that didn't win many games. The Cowboys are going to give Zico Elliott. And I think he's a very talented player. They're going to give him a hilarious contract. Oh, yeah.

It's going to be really funny. I mean, the contract he has now is really funny, just because he was picked in the top five. Man, it's going to be funny. I love watching Seekwan Barkley, and it just sucks that you could get a guy in the sixth round, and if you have the right infrastructure, your offense would be just as good. It's a bummer to me.

Yeah. I mean, it's, I'm sorry. That's just the way it goes. A lot of positions don't matter as much as other positions. The Seahawks picked the first round running back, and then the guy that they picked in the seventh round who broke his leg last year is better. It's not great.

It's really not great. It's not great. I mean, also, these guys, I just want to say something. It's really hard. These guys do not exist in the back. vacuum. They get the crap knocked out of them on every single play. They are never at full health. And so I think that that's one thing to consider is that the reason they're kind of replaceable is because injury luck is so important in football. And these guys are always injured. Even if you don't

know they're injured, even if the team doesn't know they're injured, they're always injured. And all it takes is a little bit of a hamstring pull, a little bit of a knock on the knee, whatever, to be 85% to have 100%. And that can be the difference at the NFL. So I think it's a little harsh on them, but that's the reality of the position, is they're always injured. And when I did that old quarterback thing a couple weeks ago or last week, I was talking to this guy from the Mayo Clinic about how athletes age, and he was like, you know, running back, fast twitch muscles age worse than slow twitch muscles. That's one of the reasons that wide receivers and running backs age more quickly than a quarterback or defensive tackle or whatever. But he said,

it's really impossible to judge the actual aging curve because the guys with fast which muscles also get the crap knocked out of them all the time. So we have no idea how they're supposed to age in football. Yeah, exactly. It's coming in from two different directions, which is a much bigger problem. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break. Clean up your remote control clutter in time for the Super Bowl with Control Center by Kavo. Plug in your streamer, sound system, cable, or satellite, even your game console, and Control Center does it all. Control Center simplifies your home theater so you can control everything connected to your TV with one easy-to-to-use remote with 4.

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what he's looking for. And this year, teams took a, teams were obviously offensively focused. They were top four scoring offense the NFL. But last year, it was for the five top defenses. So there's no real lesson about offense is going to win forever. I do think it's becoming more offensive game. I think that if you have the spread and all the easy throws, whatever, that stuff is the future of the sport.

And that is indisputable. But what I think the point from, the violent shift from 2017 to 2018 as far as defensive focus to offense focus in the final four. I think the lesson from that is you just have to be adaptable and you've got to be really smart because this game changes

and revolutionizes itself every single year to the point you have to operate like the Patriots and the Rams and a couple of other teams where you're just sort of you're a very swift moving ship and you can figure out things on the fly. You can change the identity of your team from one week to the next and I think that's really important.

You know, right now, One of the things that I was really fascinated with, did you see Tom Brady's Instagram story about his jersey? No. He put on his AFC championship game jersey on Insta because he wanted to show that it was completely clean. There was not one grass mark on that, and then he tagged all of his offensive alignment. He was under pressure 15% of dropbacks on Sunday. They played fantastic. Patrick Mahomes was, I think, under pressure on over half of his snaps.

It's 50% even, I think. Yeah. And so all of a sudden now, I think we're going to get into this meme where it's like, well, you got to have an offensive line. We knew you had to have an offensive line. You have to be a, like, you just have to be good at everything. That's the oldest rule. We can't just go chasing.

Every time something happens, we can't just chase that position group and say, it was like Tom Brady lost in Super Bowl five years ago and then 11 years ago to the Giants. And then it became, you've got to rush the passer in the NFL. It's like, no shit, guys. Tom Brady does not like when you get in his face. Oh, he's the one. He's the guy. He's the quarterback who doesn't do well with pressure in his face.

Everybody just learns the wrong lessons from these things. So I'm with you on all of that stuff in terms of like the rushing the past or the offensive line and everything else. I'm not with you on this offense defense thing. I understand that all the teams had good defenses last year. Who were the final four last year? Or who were the final eights last year? The Patriots, the Saints, the Steelers, the Chiefs, or the Chiefs, the Chiefs,

lost in Tennessee, excuse me, but they should have beat Tennessee. They did. The Rams, the Eagles, I mean, and the, the Falcons. Yeah. Those are all of those teams. All of those teams have top 10 defenses, or offenses by DVOA. All of them. The Chiefs, the Patriots were number one. Then the Saints, then the Steelers.

Well, offense is sustainable. Offense is the way to consistently win in the NFL, period. Right. I'm not saying that defense matters more than offense. I'm certainly as pro offense to say, but in the NFL, what I'm saying is, is that the league changes. I mean, right now, Belichick's just running an old school game plan. He's throwing James Devlin out there.

He's using the running backs from the backfield more than any other. He's turned James White into Jerry Rice all of a sudden. What I'm just saying is that it's not about one position group being dominant. It's not about one side of the ball and necessarily being dominant. It's about just having the adaptability to change your game plan and change your identity over the course of the season. I agree with that, but I think it's more so about changing your identity on offense to stay really good at offense.

I mean, I still think defense, I mean, there's, listen, the Patriots, everyone, I know everyone said like the whole we suck things overboy. I certainly agree. The Kyle Van Noid tweet that we discussed on Sunday, hashtag we suck. I'm just throwing it out. It's not acceptable. No one says you suck except weird talk shows. But, you know, they did have a, what, a 15% chance or whatever.

They have 15% rule. Bill Simmons actually sent it to me. ESPN said they have 15% chance of winning the Super Bowl before the conference championship game. but I think there's something to be said for the fact the Patriots did have the best defense they had the worst offense of the final four and the best defense of the final four

and I know that there's something to be said for just competence on defense in 2019 there totally is I'm more saying that if you're building a team it's better to have a good offense every year and then figure out the defense You're just saying that because you got double-doinced

by the Eagles. That's not true at all. I've always felt that way. That's why I'm so scared about the bear's future. No, I know. We've known this for so long. I mean, Aaron Schatz has been saying this for 15 years. And it started with those Colts teams. That's how Bill Paulian built those Colts teams.

It's also how Bill Polly and built those Buffalo teams. I mean, those are the teams that it's with offense. With offense. All offense and then you luck into a defense one year. And if you're Belichick, you're the greatest defensive mind of all time. So you don't need to luck into one. You'll figure it out. But for everyone else, I think it's about trying to figure out the defense as you go

and having a really good offense. Belichick is going to be the exception that proves pretty much every single one of these rules for the most part. If you try to build your team like Bill Belichick, you're going to lose. Yeah, I mean, we have more evidence of that than possibly anything in football that if you try to be

Bill Belichick, you will fail and you'll be fired. But again, I just think that just because defense regresses, I know all those studies. Just because defense is not consistent year to year, doesn't mean you should give up trying to build a defense. Of course not. It's just building it the right way. It's building finding the right resources,

finding the right coaching staff, all that. But to me, it's more about you need to have a good offense. If I'm choosing to build my team, it's about having an offensive coach and a really good quarterback, and then you figure out the pieces later. Get me a pass rusher,

get me a corner, and that's it. I feel like I'm being cornered into being anti-offense when I'm the most pro-offense person on the planet. I just said, you said that last year

we didn't learn anything because we didn't necessarily learn offense matters more because the best defenses were in it. And I think that we absolutely learned that offense is the most important thing. I'm saying looking at the final four and saying these teams are this, these teams are that is sort of overblown.

I guess so. But when I look at the final four last year, I don't see the best scoring defenses. I see the best offenses. They just happen to have good defenses too. Except the Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh, yeah. That was, I mean, the Steelers should have won that game. So, I mean, that's kind of what I'm.

The Eagles who had at that point had not, we had not fully realized that Nick Foles was about to put up, you know, he was going to become damn Marino in the Super Bowl. By the way, when I was having that conversation, the Steelers won that game in my mind. I was thinking the Final Four was the Saints, the Eagles, the Steelers, and the Patriots, so that's on me.

Both the Eagles and the Jaguars got to that game specifically because of their defensive depth. Now, the Eagles won the Super Bowl by playing like a big 12 team, and that's shaded our memory of that. But, I mean, if they didn't have that defense, that's a completely, I mean, they're completely sunk with Foles.

I think that's true against Atlanta. I was at the NFC championship game. Nick Foles was on fire. He was literally engulfed in flames. Oh, I'm aware of Nick Foles. I mean, they got out-schemed in that game, as the Minnesota Vikings defensive players said on mic'd up in the most embarrassing moment of the season.

All right, let's stick with that getting out-schemed thing because my next lesson is the gap between the smart coaches and the dumb coaches has never been wider than it is now. And I think that we have a lot of reasons to believe that. And it's just the amount of data that's out there, what people say about that data. Do you see today there was that report on Rotow World that NFL GMs just hate analytics?

Like a lot of them just like getting tired of all this conversation. That was a Tony Pauline thing. And the quote was like one of the coaches, something called Tony Pauline and said, anytime I hear about analytics, I say, here we go again. Well, that person should be fired. Yes, they absolutely should. And we have this conversation all the time.

This isn't about turning your front office into the Sashi Brown Browns, which, good Lord, what a day for that franchise. It's not about that. It's about understanding the smart and dumb ways to go about your business. I think Ben Baldwin tweeted something earlier this week about run, run, pass percentage, past percentage on first and second down with at least seven yards to go when you're within seven points. and the Seahawks were at 39%. They threw the ball in that situation 39% of the time on first and second down.

You cannot do that. You just cannot run your team that way. There's too many resources out there to understand the smart way to go about this. And it's just become so obvious which coaches know the right way to go about this and which coaches don't. It's never been more apparent in my mind. No argument here.

I mean, there are, There are two NFLs, people who understand how quickly the game moves now and people who don't. I mean, I think that what's fascinating to me is the conversation I've talked about now for six years about how technology was going to change football. The first one I ever had when I was essentially on brand new to the beat was with a coach who said, once this iPad stuff comes in, once the technological advancements come in, you're going to see schemes change quicker than ever. you're going to see the ability for teams to steal plays in a very fluid way. And then, of course, last year you even see that the Cream Hunt chiefs thing where they run a play in week one, the Patriot steal it, and then the Rams steal it, and then everybody's stolen it, right? And that happened over the course of four weeks.

And you're able to watch 16 games from a team in the time it used to take to watch three games. And that coach was Mike Shanahan. And that year, if I'm not mistaken, the year we talked, which I think was 2012, basically half of the future of the NFL was on his staff. And I don't think you can gloss over that fact. Mike Shanahan put together a really, really incredible staff. And I think that they all knew and they're all forward thinking. And if you knew what was coming and if you're prepared for what's coming with just how technology is moving, how the schemes are moving,

how the fact the ideas can trickle up instead of down all of those things, you're going to win. And if you think that if you're the guy telling Tony Pauline, that every time you hear analytics, you say, here we go again, you're going to lose. That 2012 Washington team is the most fascinating NFL team of the modern era, of the last decade that I paid attention to the league.

I was going through some of the numbers yesterday. You know they ran play action on 40% of their dropbacks? Yeah. It was just nuts. I mean, it's, that team was so, so interesting. And on top of the fact that the personalities involved with it have such a prominent place in the league now.

Sure. Now, I'm with you. And also, by the way, they don't get enough credit for running Baylor's schemes. That's exactly right. I did that story on one of my first weeks, is one of my first NFL stories ever, just where they were just like, yep, we ran Baylor's place.

That's what we did. And now it's like, it's seen as revolutionary if you steal Carson Wences, if the Eagles run a North Dakota play for Carson Wins, it's like, wow! And it's like, yeah, Mike Shanahan did that seven years ago. Yeah.

I mean, there's a reason that Kyle Shanahan's really good at his job. And watching that era of the NFL is just like an incredible how fast it changed and how much that version of offense doesn't really exist anymore. It does a little bit. We see shades of it with certain teams, but teams don't lean on the redoption and the shotgun play action as much as they did. But that was the NFL in 2012 and 2013. Going back and looking at those numbers, it's just nuts how steadfast those teams weren't

committing to that scheme. And it's really, really cool. All right. I got one more and then we'll get out of here. Championship windows are one fickle beasts, man. they close extremely fast for a lot of reasons unless you're the Patriots. We had this conversation a little bit

on Sunday show about how, you know, it seems, I was reading something, I can't remember where it was again. I'm just, it's been a hectic week, talking about how, you know,

the Rams maybe are the next dynasty. It's like, well, everyone take it easy. No, it's, this stuff is so hard because like we were discussing, the Jared golf contract

isn't that valuable for much longer. It's a couple years. The Eagles are going to have to decide whether they want to extend Carson Wentz. And then that whole organizational infrastructure changes. What are they going to do? What are the Eagles going to do? I know.

But seriously, remember last year when it was like, the Eagles are it. The Eagles are the NFL. And they're still a really good team. And Howie Rosen is really smart. But they don't rule the league. And they're very close to having to pay their quarterback and going into a completely different tier of teams.

So this stuff goes fast, man. I mean, think about where the Jaguars were a year ago. And think about where they are now. And that's, again, why am I just existential dread about the bears is so pronounced because you don't know how long this is going to go because there's so many factors that deal with it. Well, I agree. I think that the rookie contract thing is really important and how you maximize that. I think that the best way to keep your championship window open is have a good coach and good quarterback.

And hit on, you know, get lucky. We've talked about it a couple times. Teams can get lucky in the draft or they have a really good GM and they just have two or three great, great draft classes. We obviously saw that with Seattle. We see that with New Orleans now. They're able to get over the course of two years some, you know, all pro-level players. But yeah, I mean, things change so quickly. But I would also add, going back to what we talked about, the things that work in the NFL change so quickly now that you have to sort of align or have the adaptability to have the same identity that works this year.

I mean, there's just, if you're, if, if, if you bet big on, you know, running play action this year, you were, you're going to be better than a team that didn't. You just have to have the insights and the foresights as, remember of Rob Hennigan is director of insight and foresight. I kind of think that NFL teams need a director of insight and foresight. But I mean, isn't that essentially what Ernie Adams is? I saw Ernie Adams the day and I was starstruck. I would be too. What a man. But yeah, so I just think that things change so quickly down in the NFL that the championship windows are even more fickle because you don't even know what scheme might revolutionize next year.

Remember, the RPO, even though RPO's are still important, like in 2017, in January 2017, if you were to be told that we would almost never talk about RPO's in 2018, you would have thought we were crazy. I mean, it's remarkable. And we have a Patriots offense that's using a fullback on like 25. percent of its plays. It's, you really, that's why the Rams are so interesting in their success, because it is about just dressing things up and using different formations and using different personnel packages. And even with the Rams, like, they're using more 12 personnel on running plays in that game against New Orleans than they use the entire season. Because they know, you know that eventually you do have to start adapting. You do have to start mixing things up.

That's what's most important. I think if you could stay ahead of the curve schematically, then you're able to stave off this stuff that comes about financially and just by general regression, all the things we've come to know that can ruin teams being successful from year to year. But there's a reason

the chiefs have been good every year since Andy Reid has got there. It's because Andy Reid is really good at staying ahead of the curve creatively. I mean, this stuff is not that hard to figure out. It's hard to be good at, but it's not hard to figure out the elements that go into really good teams

that are consistently good. It's a fascinating dynamic. All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break. This podcast is sponsored by ADT, Real Protection. When it comes to something as important as your family's safety, you deserve real protection from ADT. Real protection means the nation's number one smart home security provider is standing by and is there for you when you need them. Real protection means having a safe and smart home with everything from video doorbells, surveillance cameras, smart locks, lights, carbon monoxide and smoke detectors in a system that's custom designed to fit your lifestyle.

And setting up custom automations to do things like lock the doors and. and set the thermostat when you leave. Real protection means things safe on the go. In the car or when your kids are at school, with the ADT Go app and SOS button. Real protection means 18,000 employees safeguarding you. Real protection means direct connections with first responders. No matter how you define safety for you,

your family and your business, ADT is there. ADT, real protection. Visit ADT.com slash podcast to learn more about how ADT could design and install a secure smart home just for you. And now we are welcomed by Draft Guru. Yes. Danny Kelly coming to us live from Mobile, Alabama. How are you doing, buddy?

Self-described draft guru. That's what I've been telling everyone I am. You are not a self-described draft guru. I am calling you a draft guru. You're there, buddy. I have seen the draft guide. What do you think? I love it, man.

It looks great. It looks really nice. I can't wait for you to build it out. Before we get into the nitty-gritty, I need to ask you something, Danny. because I'm in love with the shades of stuff here. I just want to go through this, okay? We have thick Arden Key, one prospect. They wouldn't let me do two Cs on that one, but yeah.

Long Cliff Averill and polished Randy Gregory. All of these would be incredible rapper names. Like, if you're Long Cliff Averill, I'm listening. I'm subscribing on Spotify. The modifiers are key. I should have done it on all of them, but I thought that was a little bit much. Yeah.

I'm very excited. Comps are really hard, but they're my favorite thing to do. Yeah. Like, I've always really enjoyed them. And it's the best is when you can get two guys that just seem nothing like each other, but somehow they make sense. Yeah. Like, mine was always that I thought Dwayne Wade and Manu Janobli were really similar. It's just like, it doesn't make sense, but they have like shades of their game that actually, like, correlate.

So those are always my favorite ones. You also have Dwayne Haskins is a medium-sized Ben Rothesburger. A medium big bend. A medium-sized big band. Yeah. So, Danny, explain to the people how this is going to go over the next couple months here as we get closer to the draft. Obviously, this is the first iteration, but I'm assuming that we will be building on this as time goes. Yeah.

So right now, we just kind of opened up with the top 32, my big board. We're going to expand it to at least 64, hopefully more. I'm not really sure yet if we'll have time. But I'm going to have full scouting reports for all these. So right now it's kind of like top-level stuff. you know the main selling point just kind of like a real short quick description of who everybody is what they look like who their shades of you know that kind of thing it's going to be full scouting reports for everybody i'm going to be probably moving guys up and down as i kind of get to go through this whole process with the senior bowl and the combine we get to watch a whole bunch more film hopefully and all that stuff so um it's going to be sort of this living document that we update we're going to have mock drafts we're going to have team needs put into it it's going to be really cool um this is just sort of the tip of the iceberg we're going to have a you know, this whole sort of like one-stop shop for the draft. So it's going to be awesome.

I actually like really anxious to get more guys on here and get more, you know, in-depth scouting reports. But it's exciting. Hell yeah. Danny, as I go through this right now, I'm extremely pleased with myself because I know a lot of these guys already, which is very new for this time of the year. I have heard of Nick Mosa. I have heard of Quinn Williams.

I have not heard of Josh Allen, this Josh Allen. I have. Right. I do not know who Brian. And Burns is. I just want to say that I know who Josh Allen is because every Saturday there's all these like Josh Allen as a grown man tweets. And I'm like, I don't think we're talking about the same Josh Allen.

Nope, definitely not. And so I looked into it. Yeah, I don't know how. Yeah. How do you pronounce Polite's name, Danny? How do you pronounce his first name? Jekai. Jekai Polite?

That's a great name by the way. Yeah. He's good too, man. I mean, all these guys are good clearly if they're in the top 32. All right. So, yeah, clearly. I mean, they're in the top 32. But like, who are you staking?

Like, put your flag down in. Like, who's like your guy that like, okay, this is my dude. Like, I'm going to ride for him harder than other people are. I mean, I know it's early to say that. But every time you dig into a process like this, like, oh, I definitely love this guy. Like, two years ago, I loved George Kittle. Like, I was like, that dude's going to be awesome. And it's just, I really enjoy kind of getting one or two guys that you just stick with the whole time through.

So I think the two guys that come to mind for me are Brian Burns, which I might have a little bit higher than some other people. I just think when you watch him play, man, he is just effortlessly exploded. And that's kind of, that's what I wrote. It's like, it just looks easy for him, the way he moves around. He's pretty light. Like, right now he's listed at 235. If he gets up to like 245 and around 250, I think that'll be probably better for him. But, man, he just, he can move.

Just explosive athlete. I like him a lot. The other guy that I was going to mention that I think I might be a little bit higher on than sort of, I guess, maybe the consensus or whatever, is Akeem Butler, the receiver from Iowa State. Some people, I think, might have him in the second round or third round or whatever. but he's 6'225, just, you know, like freakishly long catch radius, just can go up and get the ball from wherever. But he also has like that take the top off the defense speed.

He averaged 21.9 yards per reception this year. And that's on 60 catches, 1,300 yards. You seem to have like a thing for explosive receivers who score like 30 touchdowns a year and only catch deep balls. I feel like that's like your brand when it comes to receiving talent in the draft. Who was your guy a couple years ago that you just were so into that was just like that?

Ted Ginn. Yes. Ted Ginn is... Absolutely. Everyone, if someone is shades of Ted Ginn, he's Danny's favorite player of all time. I just like this guy because he's, he just,

man, he just can get over the top of defense. But he's also really good and kind of in the intermediate range, too. He just sighs and he's really athletic. I think he's going to be one of those guys that kind of people are talking about at the Combine and things like that. So he might climb up some boards,

but he's kind of, one of those guys that will make a circus catch and then drop is sort of an easier one. He's sort of in that range. So we got to see some more consistency. See, Ted Gibbs. That's all Danny wants. There you go. I have a type, I guess.

I'm looking at this picture of Brian Burns right now, and I know he's not at the senior bowl because he's a junior. I can already tell that people are going to love the levers. It looks like he has very long arms. People are going to freak out about that. It's already in my mind. It's like, yep, that dude's going to have like 35 arms at the combine and people are going to be obsessed over it. Absolutely.

Always a fun time. That is, speaking of the Senior Bowl, I'm hearing the Senior Bowl right now. Yeah. The guy who sort of comps to him, he's a different kind of player, but is Montez Sweat for Mississippi State. He's the same deal. He's 6'6. He measured out this week, 6'6, 252 pounds, with an 84 and a inch, 84 and a half inch wingspan, which is just unheard of.

It's absurd. And he uses that way. He's already being super into wingspan. You've only been doing this for a year. I love it. You're just totally on board. Dude, I love the wingspan. If Kevin loves Spark, like, wingspan is like my thing.

The Orlando Magic Front Office love wingspan. That's all they draft on. So here's my thing about this Brian Burns guy or anyone that's 6-6. I kind of have a mild hot take about pass rushers that I have about quarterbacks. I think they could be too tall. I get that. I do. You have to have leverage.

You have to be able to take on blocks. The thing you have, when you have that much length, you have to be able to use it. And that's like, you know, stab, like the stab move or a punch or whatever, you're keeping offensive linemen off you and all that stuff. So, like, you have to be able to use it or else it's just, you're just going to get rag-dalled. Julius Pepper is done okay. Well, Jewish Peppers is built differently. He's the biggest freak, like, in the history of, I'm talking about long, skinny guys,

because I'm just thinking about Leonard Foote. That's all I'm thinking about. And he's fine, but he's a specific type of player. And when you get that long and skinny, you often do better as a change of direction rusher than you do as a straight edge rusher. And I feel like those guys are limited. That's my only concern. I say this without having watched this guy play to single down,

but just based on physical comps. It's definitely valid. My comp to him was Polish Randy Gregory, and I think Gregory does have some size limitations, but the explosiveness is something that teams look for, man. And so you just can't really teach that. So I think that's going to be kind of where he stands out. He's just explosive.

Awesome. Danny, what's been your favorite thing that you've seen or talked about or done in Mobile so far? That entire world just fascinate to me. So the fact that you're waiting into it is wonderful. This is my first year in Mobile. It's really fun. Like, just going to practice.

We didn't have practice. Like, practice got rained out yesterday, so they moved it and we couldn't go. What did you guys do during that, like, six hours? I did some writing. Yeah. We got to watch some tape. They, like, had some all 22 from Monday's practice up, and so you guys watch that. But I think just, like, it really just matters to see things in person.

I think that's something that, like, a lot of, you know, teams send their scouts on the road to go. watch guys in person rather than just have the tape or whatever. It just, it matters to see what people look like in person, I think. And so that's kind of been the cool thing, getting to see these guys and how they match up and move and all that stuff, like in person. It's just a different experience than watching tape. So, Danny, as we do this for the first time and what I'm assuming is the thousands and thousands of times we do it, can we hear your initial impressions of the quarterback class? Yeah. So, I mean, obviously, Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins, are the two top guys in the class.

Neither of them are here this week. The quarterback crew here is like kind of, I guess, tier two. I think Murray is the ultimate X factor of this entire draft. We're going to be talking about him this whole time. I think he's the, you know, his size, whatever he's going to end up being like 5-9, 190 pounds or whatever, is going to be by far the biggest question of this entire draft. Like can he not just, you know, sit in a pocket and pass, but like can he hold up physically in the NFL?

I think that's obviously the big question, but I mean, he's got the skill set. He's got a strong arm. He can whip it. He can move around. He's really, really fast. I mean, he reminds me a little bit of Tariq Cohen when you watch him run. He's not quite as explosive, but he's that kind of jitterbug runner where he can just escape from guys so easily. Tariq Cohen playing quarterback is now the thing I want in the world.

And if there's a person who exists like that's like that, I'm very excited about it. So I ended up putting pint-sized Michael Vick for my shades of, but I had, I penciled in Tareke Cohen with an, with an arm the first time I did this because it was like just the way he moves around it's like sort of you know the human joystick style of like runner he's just really really fast so he's got that that dynamic

you know ability to to impact the offense both with his legs and his arm Haskins is more of a prototype pocket passer he's got you know he's good size good arm really accurate sort of in the intermediate and short range

you know he's just kind of like a prototype passer and so I think it's funny because those two guys are the top two guys and they're completely different in the style of football that they play. Both had insane numbers. But yeah, it's going to be really interesting to kind of see how the NFL decides whether they care how small Murray is.

He could potentially go number one or it could not be in the first round. Like, it's still just completely wide open. Danny, you got to work on some of these shades of... Like Joel, like Joel Betonio is like, that's a good player. I'd like Joel Betonio on my team if he was in this draft,

but I need something weirder than that. These need to be weirder. Let's see. I got that one for Dalton Risner. The reason I picked that is if you see, like when you turn on the tape and you see Dalton Risner, he has the biggest barrel chest I've ever seen in my life. And it's exactly the same as Petonio. Like his chest, his like torso is twice as wide is almost every other player on the field. So that's kind of why I went with Petonio. I don't know who I don't know who like O. Lyman were the hardest ones to figure out, I think. It's those the hardest to figure. I mean, who would you say? the hardest guys to evaluate.

So I'm outside of quarterback. So I'm assuming they're the hardest guys to come up with the comps for. We around this time, like around draft time, everyone makes fun of how obsessed scouts and personnel people are with just physical appearance and all that stuff. But then you go into NFL locker rooms and then you just realize like the best dudes are often the dudes who look like superheroes.

Yeah. Like I was in Dallas a couple weeks ago and Tyron Smith was just walking around and I was like, what in the hell? Yeah. Like how does that guy an offensive tackle? And like Whitworth is the same way. So it's just sometimes just don't overthink it. Take the guy who looks like Superman and figure it out later.

Well, I mean, yeah, like exactly. There's sort of the expression, like sometimes the teams look the best getting off the bus. But like a lot of the time, those teams are actually the best. And I think like Rizner is one of those guys. You know, this Yadne-Kajusk guy is really the West Virginia tackle. He's kind of like the same deal. He's just like really long arms, like well bit. I compared him to Dwayne Brown.

Dude, have you ever seen Dwayne Brown in person? That guy is just impressively massive. And he can move around, like, light feet and all that. So, I mean, all these guys are just crazy athletes. It's a good reminder that they're just, like, not normal, not normal human beings. They can move around, like, so fast for that size. Is this kajus guy?

Is he related to the Hard Knocks Kajus guy or no? No, no, no. He's an offensive lineman. Never mind. Oh, I don't know. Nope, he's not. It was the same last name. I was like, oh, man, is he another, like, weird dude

who believes in the power of crystals, that'd be amazing, but apparently not. Well, I don't know. You never know. All right, Danny. Anything else that you want to add from your mobile experience here before we let you go? Not much other than just, again, to keep an eye on the draft guide because it's going to be continually updated. Like, I'm going to be changing the orders of things as I kind of go along and adding a whole bunch more guys, adding much more in-depth, scouting reports and things like that. So this is, again, it's just kind of the tip of the iceberg. It's really, I think it looks really, really cool, though.

I'm psyched about it. I cannot wait until like mid-March when I start watching these guys and I've watched a guy for two minutes and then I just disagree with you completely and we get to fight about it. That's going to be my favorite thing that happens over the next couple months. That is the best part of the draft is like you can watch the exact same tape and like smart analysts will have like completely opposite takes. It's hilarious. I am not a smart analyst, but I still may have so completely opposite takes. Neither am I. But in general, two smart analysts can have opposite takes. I, buddy.

We will see you next week. You're coming to the Super Bowl. That's also a thing that's happening. Yeah, I'm driving over there on Sunday. So yeah, I'm stoked about that. Oh, God, that's right. You're like in that area of the world. You guys have both been driving around the south recently.

I have not had that experience. I love driving around America. You do not. Oh, I do. I absolutely do. You went like three years without having a license. Well, I mean, yeah, because I didn't need one where I lived. But I also did some driving in that time,

just maybe not within the perimeter. of the law. Whoa. Whoa. It's legal now. I have one in my wall. It's a wonderful thing. All right. All right.

Sounds good. We will do a couple of podcasts next week most likely. We're going to have some guests come on. Someone's not very excited about it. We're going to blow it out. This is a fun game and we're going to try to hit it from every single angle possible. So until then, thank you very much for listening to the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer

podcast network. We'll talk to you soon. This podcast was sponsored by ADT. Real Protection. When it comes to something as important as your family's safety, you deserve real protection from ADT. Real protection means the nation's number one smart home security provider is there for you when you need them. Real protection means 18,000 employees safeguarding you. No matter how you define safety, ADT is there.

ADT, real protection. Visit ADT.com slash podcast to learn more about how ADT can design and install a secure smart home just for you.