The Ringer NFL Show - Looking Back at Teams That Traded Up for a Quarterback | Big Board

Episode Date: March 5, 2021

'The Ringer Fantasy Football Show' hosts Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly are joined by Rodger Sherman to discuss who the top quarterbacks are in this year's draft after Trevor Lawrence (3:20). Then they look back at the past 10 years and talk about the teams that have traded up in the first round for a quarterback (10:55). Follow 'The Ringer Fantasy Football Show.' Hosts: Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly Guest: Rodger Sherman Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Baseball season is right around the corner, and Jake Mintz and Jordan Schusterman will serve as your guides to the good, the bad, and the utterly bizarre corners of the baseball world on baseball barbecue. In the run-up to the season, they'll dive into the rabbit hole on some of their favorite fascinations, from the home run derby to baseball brawls and more. Once the MLB season returns, they'll break down the latest news and developments with their trademark wit and irreverence. Check out baseball barbecue on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. my name is Danny Hifitz, and I am joined by my co-host, Danny Kelly. Yes, there are two Danies. It's a little confusing.

You may know us from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, which we record every Wednesday during the offseason. You can find that. But we are also coming to you every Friday until the draft here on the Ringer NFL show for The Big Board, where we will rank something every Friday. And our guest this week is our friend. Roger Sherman, are you currently being attacked by your two dogs?

Yeah, did you hear some squeaky noises just now? Or did we edit out the squeaky noise? I don't know why podcasts don't just have random dogs crying and yelling and squeaking toys in the background. I think that would spice up the football chat. I think that your dogs would probably be really good football players or at least be good kickers. Yeah, they got an eye for the ball, good in the open fields. It's jittery. That's the key.

But today we're going to be talking draft. And this year, just talking draft means quarterbacks. But this year it means quarterback trades. It's really weird. I think I first really realized how big the trades were going to be for this year's draft. When I saw Mel Kiper did his first mock draft and he has trades in his mock draft for the first time in like 40 years. He's been doing mock draft for four decades. He's never included trades and he's like this year I have to do it.

And that's just kind of the theme of the whole year. So we're going to go through the last 10 years of draft trades and all the ones that where teams have traded up for a quarterback in the first round. And we're going to see kind of what that says about this year's draft. and what it means for this field. But first, DK and Roger, we want to talk to you guys about the quarterbacks that probably are going to go in the first round for this year's draft.

So you got, obviously we know Trevor Lawrence is going to go first. The Jaguars aren't trading. But DK., I'm curious if you see a theme or a pattern or anything between Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Tray Lance, any of these guys. What do you think of when we take Lawrence out of this group? What do you think about this group of dudes?

Yeah, I mean, I think to me the biggest question is whether Zach Wilson or Justin Fields is going to be. be the second quarterback picked. And I mean, right now, the consensus has Zach Wilson being the guy. Like most, I think the hype right now is all about Zach Wilson. There have been more question marks about Justin Fields, I guess, over the last couple of months after all the season's been over for whatever reason. Zach Wilson is ascended. Justin Fields has kind of fallen off. You know, some analysts will have him second, third, fourth, you know, there's a lot of buzz this morning because Chris Sims ranked his quarterbacks as Zach Wilson has the number one guy,

even over Trevor Lawrence. So Zach Wilson has a ton of buzz right now, a ton of hype. And so it's looking most likely like he's going to be the number two, like the second quarterback picked. And if he is, I think the Jets are going to be the team. I mean, they're probably not going to trade out of that spot. Move on from Sam Darnold. Roger, what is your impression of this whole situation with Zach Wilson, Justin Fields? My first thought was like, it kind of, kind of reminds me a little bit of the scenario we saw a couple years ago where you had Mitchell Trubisky kind of emerge as this like the overall consensus type guy in a class that also had Deshawn Watson and don't put Mitch Trubisky on him that's that's that's that's that's

I'm not just the meanest thing you can say about any person here's me here's why here's why I'm doing that so just take the Zach Wilson versus Justin Fields thing and say Wilson is Trubisky Fields is, say, to Sean Watson, because Sean Watson has a lot of similar days to Fields, I think. So Fields accomplished, high pedigree, big game, battle tested, big program, you know, national

title games, you know, all that stuff, versus Wilson, who is a meteoric riser, kind of a sandlock playmaker. Now, this is kind of getting off the analogy, because I don't think that's necessarily what Chbrisky was. Sandlot playmaker, off-platform thrower, fun style, but he didn't do it

against top-tier competition. So, I guess, my question is, is Zach Wilson closer to Mitch Trubisky or is he closer to like Mahomes? Is he the Mahomes in this scenario where? No, we're not comparing anyone in Mahomes. That's a rule. No one gets compared to Patrick Mahomes. A lot of people are doing it. I'm not doing it.

I'm saying a lot of people are doing it, which I think is absolutely absurd. But yeah, to me, this whole situation is very fascinating. I think Fields is to me the clear number two quarterback in this class. But Wilson is definitely the consensus number two guy right now. Roger, what's? What's your take on the Jets? What should they do? I found myself at this point.

I'm excited about four of the five quarterbacks in the track besides Mac Jones. I talked myself into pretty much any one of them being the number two. I think Fields is the one that to me has stood out for the longest time that has been the most consistent. And the guy who has so many of these traits that seem to be successful in modern quarterbacks, it's funny. I've kind of changed my philosophy on this.

almost 100%. I used to look for players who had great, you know, efficient stats who were, you know, setting records in terms of efficiency, like Tua, like Baker. And then I've kind of been disappointed in both of those players. And then you've seen players who have these athletic packages and are able to throw on the run and have great arms. Those guys are the ones who have been successful in the NFL. So I've gotten 180 eerie. I don't like Back Jones and I like everybody else. I think that's definitely fair. With regards to what the Jets should do, I should mention I'm a Jets fan and, you know, it's not fun being a Jets fan. I've also talked to myself into the fact that most likely what's going to happen is like three of the quarterbacks are going to do really well and the Jets are going to take the one who doesn't with the number two pick.

Like you can absolutely book it. You know, I mean, we basically did this with Sam Darnold. Right. You know, there were multiple other great quarterbacks there. You know, they could have taken Josh Allen. They could have taken Lamar Jackson. And I guess Sam Darnold did turn out better than Josh Rosen. So we've got that to be thankful for.

I mean, that's one of the reasons we wanted to do this episode today was the Darnold trade. It's like the Jets throw three second rounders out there to move up three spots and then it seems like Darnel's going to go anyway. And so it seems unclear if trading up even works at this point, trading down works. It just it doesn't even make sense if you look at the history. So we wanted to just do that today. So you guys want to just go backwards, start like 2011 or so and then like let's look at all these first round tradeups.

We're going to go through these first round trades. And before we do, I'd like to issue my hypothesis. Okay. Please hit us. My hypothesis is the problem with trading up isn't necessarily, you know, giving up the picks, but I feel like the odds of any one quarterback succeeding aren't high enough to make it worth it. And there are a lot of times other quarterbacks on the board who you could have just drafted anyway. And they might have, and they might turn out well or if not in many cases they've turned out better than the guy who you ended up trading up to take. And I think I think that'll show.

but we'll see. Yeah. The odds of any one quarterback being worth giving up draft capital to get aren't that high. I mean, that's what it comes down to today. Beautiful. All right. At the end of the episode, we're going to go through the top five quarterbacks in this class and we're going to see which of them we think maybe are worth trading up for and what they bring to the table. But first, let's go through all the trades in the last 10 years.

We're starting with 2011 for a simple reason. That's when the new collective bargaining agreement was signed. that's the difference between like Sam Bradford being the highest paid player in NFL history when he was like the first pick and has never played before and then the next year they signed the CBA and Cam Newton gets like he ends up being like the 30th highest paid player in his own team so that's really when the whole value of quarterbacks changed teams didn't really even like drafting quarterbacks kind of high it was like this double edge sword from the jump so we're starting in 2011 because that's really modern when these modern trades kind of began so let's just start at the top the first one 20th 11. The only trade up, Blaine Gabbardt. Oh, man. I forgot about this. The Jaguars moved his second rounder to go up six spots. Did you guys remember Blaine Gabbard existed? I kind of forgot about him. I remember him because he was the backup quarterback. Yeah, he won. He's out there right now winning Super Bowls. I don't know what they're talking about. He's a Super Bowl champion.

Yeah. Well, anytime you can trade up to get a Super Bowl QB like Blaine Gabbard, you've got to do it. And he also tweeted something ridiculous with him and Tom Brady was like real G's moving silence like lasagna. Yes, yes. And to be fair, he did move in silence. I had heard about him for years. That's a very good point. The ultimate dream in life back up QVianna Super Bowl winning team. Tom Brady can have all the glory.

You just got it. But anyway, the trade. The Jags wanted Blaine Gabbardt. They gave up also the pick that turned into Ryan Carrigan for Washington. So that worked out for Washington. And they took Blaine Gabbard 10th and then JJ Watt went 11th. And also, you know, Andy Dalton was hanging around there. He went early in the second round and has been better in every single way than Blaine Gabbard.

So I don't think they needed to trade up together. So we're going to say the Jaguars lost here? You want to think about it more? Do we need to discuss this longer? I'm going to go ahead and say that they did not need to trade up. If I told you in 2011 that Blaine Gabbard would be a quarterback and a Super Bowl winning team in Florida. All right.

We're going to give the Jaguars the L on this. It's very controversial. Maybe people can add us if you think that's a terrible decision. All right. The thing about Blaine Gabbard's draft that you have to remember is that they came out with a sports illustrated cover that had a picture of Cam Newton, and Jake Locker and

Blaine Gabbard right next to him and the headline was the 2011 QB cast the toughest call in football and it wasn't that tough a call because Kim was a lot better than Blaine Gabbard or Dick Locker well how about that?

Who's on a Super Bowl? There you go, Super Bowls. 2012, the RG3 trade so this one's wild. It's really even complicated to even to say. Washington moved up four spots. They were,

they swapped. the sixth pick for the second pick, and they gave a second and two future firsts, and that basically became a laundry list of players. Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Alec Oglary, Isaiah Pete, Deadman, Bailey, Zach, Stacey, Greg Robinson, who was the number two pick in the draft

and was off the team of three years. Yikes. This is one of those, this trade to me is one of the biggest reminders that the draft is an absolute crap shoot. And even if you're giving up a lot to move up for a guy, It doesn't necessarily mean you're going to turn all these draft picks, all this, this loot into like a winning team. You still have to make the right picks.

And so obviously the Rams were mired in mediocrity for a long time just because, you know, they were unable to kind of like capitalize on this trade. I will say the RG3 thing is complicated because obviously injuries kind of ended his career and it is effective, you know, super stardom that he had as a rookie. Do you guys look back at RG3? To me, he's one of the biggest sort of what if players of this generation of this era. Because as a rookie, what he was able to do. So looking back at his rookie season, he had 3,200 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, five picks, 815 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He was sort of at the very beginning of the read option craze that took over the NFL for the 2010s, I'd say.

And obviously, he tore up his knee in the playoffs, but he'd won the rookie of the year. he was a pro bowler as a rookie. And he was sort of on his way to being a legend, but then it all kind of just fell apart. Roger, what was your kind of an impression of the RG3? I still occasionally find myself believing in RG3. Like he started a game this year, remember? And I was like, oh, yeah, it's time for him to break out again.

High Fitz did too, by the way. He had one of the worst games of the season for any quarter, for any starting quarterback. And the Raven Blaston Steelers. But yeah, he was. such a phenomenon and also sort of part of the college offense

uptick at Baylor. They showed that they could do really well just throwing a lot and throwing a lot of touchdown. I mean, not saying that they invented that, but you know, it showed that that was a way you could win the Heism and be a top pick. This was such a strange trade

because it really seemed like Washington had won it because they had a superstar quarterback and then he got injured And then it really seemed like the Rams had won it. And I don't know if you remember this, but in 2014, the Rams played Washington. And Jeff Fisher made his captains for the game, the six players who he acquired. He sent them out for the coin toss.

He sent out Janoris Jenkins, Michael Brockers, Zach Stacey, Stedman Bailey, Greg Robinson, and out, Alec Gogol tree to take the pregame coin toss. And it was like, yeah, we owned you in this trade. we dominated you guys and then like none of those players ended up being meaningful for that is hilarious so it's it I'd agree with Danny it was kind of a wash

and it really sold both sides of this if you get your franchise QB give up anything to get them and then no actually that's not true you want that draft capital because anybody could fail and everybody missed

yeah I think that just thinking here but what's the verdict like who won this trade. No one did. Like to me this is the cautionary tale of like winning the offseason. We've become obsessed with who has the most picks and the dolphins all these first rounders, the Browns had all these first rounders. Just looking at the list of what the Rams actually did with all of these picks.

I mean, getting the number two pick in the draft, taking a tackle and not even getting four years out of that guy. It's just a reminder that having these picks doesn't mean anything if you don't actually pick the players. D.K., you said that earlier. And I don't know that's the dumbest point in the world, well, you've got to make the players, but it's true. Having a lot of picks in and of itself is literally meaningless. And I just, I don't know, no one won this trade.

And I think it's this trade. We talked about this a little bit when the Rams traded Jared Dobb. They basically decided since this trade that they don't care about the draft at all. Yeah. Because they got all these picks and they didn't turn out into anything. And they were like, okay, let's, let's, we don't care about these picks. Let's go get Jared golf. We don't care about these picks.

Let's go get Jalen Ramsey. We don't care about these picks. Let's get Jared golf off of our team. It's really, I think, once this happened, the Rams completely changed their thinking. And maybe in the end that might make them losers because they ended up giving a lot to get Jared off and then give them up. But we'll talk about that.

I think that's a good point, though. This was the first big move that Les Need the GM of the Rams made. And then since then his philosophy's, seems to be a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. And that's like how they've just been doing the whole thing, except it's more like four picks for Jalen Ramsey or whatever. All right. So wash of a trade,

2014. Brown's traded for Johnny Mansell. I don't know. What do you think, guys? How'd this guy? Football. The Brown's draft history in the 2010s and, like the 2000s is just so depressing to look at.

I actually kind of forgot about this. So this is owner Jimmy Haslam just wanted Johnny Manzell and basically forced his new GM to take Johnny Menzell because he was obsessed with John. It wasn't like a huge trade from the perspective of like all these teams trading up to get. Number one, I think they moved up from 24 to 22. Yeah, it was a relatively. It was absolutely minuscule. They ended up getting, essentially they flipped it for a fourth and fifth rounder.

It was like nothing as a trade. Even like I'm looking at it and thinking sit there and either you get Johnny Mansell two picks later and that doesn't work out, whatever. But Teddy Bridgewater was there. And I mean, Teddy Bridgewater was awesome in college and has turned out to have a better career than have a better career than either of the quarterbacks drafted ahead of them, I think, like Portals and Johnny. And I think that would have been a fine thing to happen

to Cleveland to get that player instead of, you know, trading up to get Johnny. So I think that's the thing with these trades. There was a better quarterback available and they wouldn't have needed to trade up to get him. I got to be honest, I feel like Johnny football was overrated. I always come back to the iconic play he had against. Yeah, in college.

When he had that iconic play against Alabama and he like ran all over the place and then found the guy in the end zone, he bailed from a clean pocket. He didn't have to do anything. And then two, the guy was wide open. And everyone's like, Heism and He's been. I'm like, that would have been way easier if he had just stood still. Clearly, you haven't been watching the fan control football league where Johnny Mansell is is popping off for the Zappers. The Zappers? Yeah.

I have I'll be honest I missed the Zappers games. They're great. They're on Twitch. I was looking back at this trade and I was trying to remember kind of like the impression that people had coming into it. Obviously, so High Fitz thinks he was overrated. That's fine.

But at the time, people were very enamored with sort of his, you know, playmaking moxie for lack of a better term. And I went back and looked at some scattering reports. And a lot of the things about his scattering report are like, very favorable. Like a lot of teams would still be like,

looking at this like as a as a plus like running ability playmaker gunslinger attitude instincts these these are from real scouting reports i found um seems to be a step ahead of the defense throws a good deep ball but then with him the major thing was the well there was two things his size he's a very small guy and number two the off field stuff and when i was going through and reading this i found this like snippet from brobival dot com apparently they leaked a scouting report that was supposedly from the Patriots organization. And it said, and this is quote, everything has been pretty well documented

in online articles about the kid, but sources say he's a spoiled brat. His grandfather gives him an allowance. His father bought him a luxury car. And he doesn't study the film. It's said to know about 60% of the offense, never watch his film, and blah, blah, blah.

So when this happened, they asked Bill Belichick about this. I completely forgotten about it, but I thought it's hilarious and worth talking about. He did sort of a non-denial. He didn't deny it, nor confirm it. He said, we have a ton of information

on all players that are in the draft. What's online. You should go talk to the geniuses that are online. I don't know. My face, your face, instant face. Go talk to whoever does that stuff.

I don't know. Instant face. He loves to pretend to not know the names of social media. We need an updated version for this for Belichick because we don't know what he's going to pretend

to think TikTok is called. Snippy snappy. Snippy snap. The rules are it has to have a face in it. Face. Face. Your face? He kept.

That's going with it. He might be a great coach, but I think over the course of his career, he's been better at inventing fake social media websites to prove he doesn't go online. Instant face is my favorite. Maybe he just was ahead of his time on that one. All these deep fake. You should go talk to the geniuses that are online. Does that us? Are we geniuses?

That's what Bella said. You're online. Okay. Let's go forward to the 2016 draft. This was like the big one. So this is the Jared Goff traded number one, the Carson Wentz trade at number two, and then hilariously, which I forgot,

so I looked this up. Paxton Lynch technically was traded up for. The Broncos went to get Paxton Lynch. Another person I just forgot about. Shout out Danny Chow. But first of all, we can get into the specific terms of the deals, but Goff and Wentz obviously have both just been dealt away

five years after these trades. They both made a Super Bowl with those guys. Goff made the Super Bowl with the Rams, lost. Eagles kind of made the Super Bowl with Wends, depends on you count it. Did this work or not? My take No. No.

My take on the 2016 draft is the biggest winner was everyone who drafted below the Rams and Eagles and got traded up over so they could take Jared Gough and Carson Wentz. The run after Gophan Wentz is Joey Bosa,

Zeke Elliott, Jalen Ram, Ronnie Stanley de Forrest Buckner. Jesus. Unreal. And the Rams and Eagles were like not only gave up stuff, but they bypassed all these players to go get that. And like the Chargers sitting at number three got Joey Bosa without having to have

the worst record in the league. Yeah. So to be clear, it's a top five defensive end. I mean, top five running back depending on he feels about Zeke. Maybe the best cornerback in football in Jalen Ramsey, maybe the best left tackle in Ronnie Stanley and probably the best defensive tackle other than or best interior alignment other than Aaron Donald. Just boom, boom, boom, boom.

Think about the Rams. The Rams traded up to get Jared Goff. And then at five picks after Jared Goff, Jalen Ramsey is picked. And then they trade to get Jalen Ramsey giving up first round picks. And then they give up first round pick to get rid of Jared Goff. So if you went back in time, if you went back to time. if you went back in time. You know, like they could have,

I mean, they didn't have the number five pick. They had the number 15 pick. They really wanted to trade up to number one. And they end up giving away to the Titans. The Titans had the number one pick initially. And the Titans got the picks that turned into Corey Davis, Derek Henry, Johnny Smith, and another pick that they traded to get Jack Conklin.

And it's like that's their team. Yeah, that is their team. But to your point, if they had, because considering they gave away basically two or I think three first round picks essentially for golf or a couple seconds, and then ended up trading another two or three first rounders for Jalen Ramsey, if they had just taken Jalen Ramsey first overall. Oh, my God.

They would have like four or five extra first round picks. Yeah. Yeah. So even if they had traded up with the Titans and then used it on Jalen Ramsey, they would have saved them in the wrong. That's hilarious. Okay, so what about the Wens trade? The Eagles won the Super Bowl.

I know Wens was not actually the quarterback for the playoff run, but is that a failure? Like, was this a mistake? I don't know how to judge this. It's like they won, but not with him, but he was the reason they did it, and they just got rid of him, and everyone in Philadelphia's kind of done with Carson Wence.

Like, do you think the Eagles screwed up his development or do you think that this was a mistake? I think injuries are part of it, too, though. You have to take into account. It's so tough to know with Wends because, you know, maybe the book isn't completely finished. But for the Eagles, three out of four years or however long he was with the team, I would say go on the negative side. And then obviously the Super Bowl season was sort of like this perfect season. So I don't know.

It's so tough to know. And it's not like he got benched in that Super Bowl year. He was a part of what got them to the Super Bowl. But at the end of the day, to me, this is still an L. I don't know. What do you think? So Wentz to me is also a very interesting example to kind of like bring up right now because there's some parallels to Trey Lance, you know, obviously with coming out of North Dakota State,

you know, and just lack of experience, which is a big knock against Wend's coming out, lack of top tier competition. Basically, you could you could read Wences Scouting report and, more or less like transferred over to Tray Lance in some ways. And so I guess it's like the question with these quarterbacks is always like the situation.

What kind of situation is he going to be put in? Roger, do you think D.K.'s just been brainwashed in because it's North Dakota State football. North Dakota State is a beautiful thing that exists crushing everything in its site, although they did lose this past week. And just because they're from the same extremely small dome on the,

on the northern plains does not make them the same quarterback. Are Mac Jones into it? Well, maybe. Apparently Mac Jones is faster Tom Brady. That's what I've heard. This draft was so weird, I think, because

the thing is, with Doffin Wins, neither of them were they definitely were not the best two players in the draft. And this was like a strange draft where they both, went one, two, even though there were so many better players available because teams wanted those quarterbacks. I don't, I, I, I didn't like Gopher Wentz's prospects. And they didn't need

to go one and one to two. Gough has this like loopy delivery. It runs like a baby giraffe. So are we, are we going to give the Rams an L for the golf trade up? Is that a loss? I think the teams get else. I think the, when the Eagles get an L to? I have trouble giving the Eagles an L just, they, they won the freaking Super Bowl. Now, maybe the fact that they won the Super Bowl without Wenz is proof that they didn't need him. But I still feel like that's the goal of the sport. And they probably don't do that if he doesn't get them the number one seed. I really, at the very least, it has to be a wash. I cannot give them an L for the Wend's thing. So I'm fine putting. The golf trades in L. And then the real discussion here, the Broncos trade up for Paxton Lynch.

I mean, you know, I mean, this is a monumental deal in NFL history. He's very tall is the thing. Yes. This is the one that solidified John Elway likes tall people. John Elway has a type. This was fun going through this, by the way, because there was multiple, like three or four guys I had completely hadn't thought about for like several years. And Paxton Lynch,

I'm pretty sure, was on the Seahawks for a minute, which is more hilarious. And the big thing with him, and I think this is something, again, it's like take this and use it to give context to like what we're talking about now

with the quarterbacks this year. Accuracy was the big thing for him. And obviously accuracy, is important. Sometimes it's not a fixable trait. In Josh Allen's case, he's one of the outliers that was able to fix his accuracy. But accuracy was a huge huge, huge flag for Pax and Lynch in college, and he was never able to fix that. There was also question marks about his work ethic and all that stuff. I don't know if it was ever, like, officially reported, but there was rumors of that. So, yeah, Paxon Lynch, not a hit. This one stylistically falls in with the Manzell trade,

where it's towards the end of the first round and it's basically just the person in charge of a team being like oh, I need this person. That's exactly what it is. I want that person he's tall. I want him for my collection of all quarterbacks.

That's not what I think John Elway sounds like. I know he doesn't speak like that. He's in weird commercials for things. But he just wanted a tall person and you know, he did not need a tall person. Maybe if you combine Johnny Mansell's too short,

packs and then just too tall, but if we combine them into like one middle-sized person, they'd be better. And who's the best quarterback from the 2016 draft? Dak, he went four rounds later. None of these guys even thought about. There you go, there you go. Everyone traded up and there was an actual great quarterback.

I know he wasn't like scouted. But so why is that? Like, why was that just completely missed? That team did very well. I think with Dak, So the 2016 draft class overall is like a cautionary tale where you look at this and say, look, all these, every quarterback is a huge risk. You cannot predict what's going to happen in the future. With DAC, he is a weird, another rare guy.

Everybody talks about Josh Allen. I just brought him up. But DAC is another guy whose accuracy seemed to improve when he got to the NFL for whatever reason. maybe it was just the system he's playing and it was perfect for him like the the run heavy play action give him to find reads or whatever but his accuracy got better when he got to the NFL and so you know I don't know like how do what do we take from this is otherwise other than like it's fucking impossible to scout quarterbacks that seems to be an early theme that's why I think trading up is such a risky thing because yeah you know because the odds of anyone working out aren't

could. By hypothesis from earlier panning out so far, my summary of the 2016 draft is basically the Rams and Eagles spent $137,000 for a gift of LeBron James Junking on NBA Top Shot. Could have just watched it on YouTube and gotten Dak Prescott. They did not need to pay all that to have that experience. Apologies to anyone who's out there making money on Top Shot. but I think it's a lot like I mean they don't they don't need your apologies they're happy making their money

okay let's get to the thrill in manila of quarterback trade draft class first round situations 2017 Bears trade up for Mitchell Trivinsky RIPA trade up one spot Patrick Mahomes Texans trade up for Deshawn Watson the Trubisky trade

just a little brush up on history here the Bears were picking third the Niners were picking second. And then the Niners kind of extort the Bears and pretend that they'll like take Trubisky and end up or just like they'll trade the pick. No one's interested in this pick. And the Bears because they needed to get Mitch so bad basically tossed them. I think it was a third rounder to move up one spot for the spot that no one else wanted. And in fact, no one else wanted to trade up.

No one else wanted that quarterback. And then the pick became Alvin Camara, which they ended up flipping around. I think it was two third round picks and one of them became Alvin Camara obviously, you know, that's lucky and it didn't help the 49ers at all. But the other one was Fred Warner who had been very good linebacker.

Maybe the best middle linebacker in football. So, and that was the price. Those are obviously two very lucky hits in the third round. Camara and Fred Warner. That doesn't, you don't normally get possibly the two best players at their position. But the Niners didn't want Mitch Tjurisky because he's bad.

And we knew this in 2017. Anyone who watched college football knew that he wasn't Deshaun Watson. And the thing that I always say about this 2017 draft is nobody expected Patrick Mahomes to be God's gift of football, which he has been. But it was so clear that Deshawn Watson was the best of quarterback. there. And even if that hasn't been true, it was so obvious that he was better than Mitch Trubisky, who ended up going number two, and they could have had him at number three, and also had Fred Warner and Alvin Camara, I guess, if they wanted. So, D.K., that's my question

for you. Is there the similarity between the 2017 draft and this year, because you've got Zach Wilson, who is, he's not the same as Trubisky. Trubisky didn't even start until a senior year? Yeah, to be clear, I don't want to, I'm not actually comparing him to Trubisky. Bisckey and skill. I think there's some narrative similarities. Yeah, like he's a late riser, meteoric rise. You could make the argument,

he's a bit of a one-year wonder, but he has been a three-year starter. He had, he started a little bit as a freshman, and he was impressive. Sophomore season, he had injuries, kind of struggled, and in fact,

came into this last season. I saw this. Nate Tice from The Athletic tweeted this. It was like an Athlon magazine that had the pre-season rankings for quarterbacks. Zach Wilson was the 50th quarterback in the class

coming into the 2020 season. 50th. So he wrote, like he rose, this has been a meteoric rise for him, regardless of what he did the previous two seasons. And so like the narrative thing to me, which I think is fascinating is everybody is very, very much an average of Zach Wilson.

I get it. He's like a fun player, exciting style, throws off platform, you know, very good deep thrower, all this stuff. but it's pushing a guy like Fields who has been doing this for a couple of years now, big games, you know, a lot of the same worries that people have about Fields. You could read a Deshawn Watson scouting report from when he was coming into the NFL,

and it's exactly the same shit they're saying about Fields right now. Slow through his progressions, takes so many sacks, you know, locks onto his first receiver, all this stuff. But there's also a ton of similarities in their game, which is like, you know, he's played against the top competition, led his team to be a top team in college football. You know, all this stuff, like very good runner, very good, you know, he changes the math in terms of like the run game and all that stuff. So to me, it's just like fascinating that the narratives are sort of similar. I'm not saying, I'm not saying that Zach Wilson is Chubisky. In fact, I think Zach Wilson's going to be good.

I'm just saying, the field's getting pushed down the list is the, is the creative. crazy thing to me. Roger, do you get Watson Trubisky vibes from the Fields-Wilson debate right now? I don't think any of these people are Mitchell Trubisky. Yeah.

I wouldn't wish that. To be clear. He's a one of one too, just like Mahomes' But yeah, I mean, Justin Fields is this guy Justin Fields is this guy who came in and was such a fantastic college

football player. And like, it's not really the same, but when I think about just an incredible performance that just made me, like, I always think of what Deshaun Watson did against Alabama winning that national championship game and just getting beaten up and playing through it and winning that game. And it's not exactly the same thing, but I think of Justin Fields this year against Clemson where he just suffered this brutal injury and somehow had this incredible game in spite of it and ended up blowing out Clemson. And like, these are college football superheroes that proved all of their traits, all of their talents that, you know, people had known about were capable of winning these games against the best teams of the sport, willing their teams.

And it's just like, yeah, I want that guy. That's exactly where I am, Roger. Like, it's the same exact. To me, there's so many shades of Watson and Fields being kind of like in the same boat. So I think that's a stronger narrative. To me, that's way like closer of a comparison than saying that, you know, Wilson's going to be triscy because hell, like I said at the beginning, Wilson has been getting comp to Mahomes. Not that he is Mahomes, but like the playing style, the off platform throws, there are shades there. So maybe he ends up being the best quarterback in his class. But to me, yeah, the Fields thing is very much. jades of Watson.

Watson, like people were very worried about, oh, he had X amount of picks. He's too cavalier with the ball. And the same things people said about Mahomes coming in. So I just think,

number one, that's an interesting narrative. Number two, all this stuff that we've been talking about just tells me, like, don't get too confident about how you feel about anybody

because, I mean, hell, as it stands right now, I actually think all three of these guys, Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields, are all going to be good pros.

But history tells us that maybe one or two of those guys are not going to be good at all. So I think we broke off here at sort of a point where things were getting kind of, we got up to the point where the Chiefs and Texans traded up for Patrick Mahomes and Deshawn Watson. And, I mean, you can't really disagree with that at all. Right. They got these superstar two of the best players, the most important position in the sport. But, you know, I'm looking at the bills. The bills, you know, they ended up getting the pick that turned into Tradavius White.

And then the next year, you know, they draft Josh Allen. So it doesn't really bum them out too much. And the Browns, I remember everybody roasting them because in 2016, they traded away out of the number. two spot where they could have had Carson Wentz. And then the next year, they trade to the Texans, this pick that could have turned into Deshawn Watson. But they got all of these players out of those picks and sort of rebuilt their team and ended up with Baker Mayfield.

Obviously, that's a bummer because he's not Deshawn Watson. He's better than Carson Wentz. But like, it's still worked out for these two teams that traded out of these spots. I don't, I think obviously the chiefs and Texans, in here, but I don't think it's a total L for these teams that traded out and still wound up. You know, if you ask the bills, would you rather have Patrick Mahomes for all of these players and Josh Allen, they're probably going to say all of those players and Josh Allen.

I don't know if that's right, but at least they're happy with it and it seems to have worked out again. Right. No, I think you're right. These are the closest we have here to like, true like, like win-win trades. The bill's got like five starters out of it. They got left tackle, Dionne Dawkins, linebacker trade man-admins. They got like a defensive backs around Neil. And then White, who's one, Tranevis, White's probably the best quarterback in football, maybe,

other than Jaylon Ramsey. So, okay. So my homes, though, still, they got Mahomes. That's a win. Texans got to Sean Watson. That's a win. It'll be an L when they trade him away like two weeks from now. And then Trubisky, obviously, that's an L. So there you go. One other thing I wanted to bring up, I think it's hilarious because, and I do this and I know Roger, you've been a big fan of doing this too, like talking about how the bear, the bear's missed out on Mahomes and Watson, but there's a lot of teams in this little gap here that also missed out on Mahomes and Watson. You're right.

So I'm just going to go down the list. The 49ers pick Solomon Thomas, who's been a bust at number three. Number four, the Jags, Leonard Fournett. Number five, the Titans. Corey Davis. I mean, you know, I guess it worked out okay for them getting a team. No, no, they'd rather have Mahomes or Deshawn Watson. You would absolutely make that trade.

Yeah, for sure. The Jets picked Jamal Adams, who they traded away a couple years later. The Chargers, Mike Williams. I mean, he's been a solid pro, but not like not a game changer. The Panthers even would 100% make the trade, Christian McCaffrey for one of these two quarterbacks. And then the Bengals, John Ross, at number nine, hyphen's his least favorite player. The Panthers, I get it because Cam Newton's there. The Titans, I get it because Marioo was still there.

and they had just drafted him a couple years earlier. But the Jets, the Niners, the Niners had Hoyer that year and ended up getting Gropolo. The Jaguars holding onto Bortles and then the Bengals holding onto Andy Dalton instead. To your point, the Bears get too much flack. These other teams didn't even swing at quarterback

in this draft at all, which is way more inexcusable. It's actually better to be wrong. At least you tried than to not even play the game. And then you have John Ross. And like nine months later, you're like, can you play quarterback? The Niners,

the Niners, you know, they did a great job duping the Bears into thinking they were going to draft Mitchell Trebisky when they had no intention of doing that. But then they should have taken that number three pick and used it on these future superstar quarterbacks instead of Solomon Thomas. Okay, let's get to the 2018 draft here. So there's a lot of movement here.

So the Jets moved up for Sam Darnold. They get through three second rounders out to the Colts to move up three spots, turn it in like Quentin Nelson. They're starting right tackle. Braden Smith and then also got through a series of deals. Camoco Toray, who's a great defensive end for them. Quarterback, Rockies, and they did really well with this package. And then honestly, Quentin Nelson's been a far better offensive lineman than Donald's

been a quarterback. So, Roger, you're the Jets fan here. Do you want this deal back? It's, again, it's, there were so many better quarterbacks than Sam Darnold. I in 2018 would have thrown a fit. if they had waited until six and then gotten Josh Allen, because I thought Josh Allen is going to suck. But I think that would have been better, obviously,

than trading up and getting Sam Darn. And I was a big Lamar Jackson fan at the time. Somehow he ends up going 32nd. You know, it's like the thing about when we're discussing specifically the trade in a draft with five quarterbacks, which this was, this was a, this is a draft with five first round quarterbacks. Why are you moving up to get the second best one?

I mean, how confident are you that that one is really going to be the second best one and not the third best or fourth best? In Darnold's case, he turns out being the fourth best. And it just doesn't seem worth it to me. When you're saying all this, Roger, part of me, though, is wondering, you know, how much, like, I think the landing spot has a huge influence on the development of these players. You're saying it would have been good on any team besides the Jets. No, we're saying anybody on the Jets would have been bad.

Well, maybe that. But then also, would Josh Allen be a different player if he had landed in a different team? Like, the bill is an extraordinary job of matching him up with a offensive coordinator who was able to work with him and get hit the most out of him, like based on his skill set, And then also trading for Stefan Diggs, you know, they had this foundation there. They invested a lot in the offensive line. Not trying to make your life hell, Roger. But like...

So in this scenario, the Jets draft Josh Allen. He was bad as a rookie, objectively, even on the bills. The Jets still go ahead, hire Adam Gase. And then Josh Allen is playing for Adam Gase. And we're sitting here and we're like, well, Josh Allen clearly still sucks ass. They should have drafted him. But at least you get to... A big load about being right about Josh Allen in that timeline.

Yeah, that changes a lot, but that does make it a lot. I get to think I'm smarter than the Jets. So yeah, there is that the what if always has to be a lot more multifaceted than you make it sometimes. Yeah, for sure. Bill, I think you don't need to trade up to get Sam Darnold's. Because, I mean, look, that pick turns into Clinton Nelson. He's good.

Darnal's trade up as an L. And then the next one is the bills moved up for Josh Allen. They went from the 12th pick to the seventh pick for two second rounders. Obviously, this is a win. The buck's got two decent players out of it. They got Carlton Davis and NJ. Stewart's good defensive backs. But obviously, the bills win that trade. I think that's obvious.

We just hit that. The cardinal, the next one is the Cardinals moved up for Josh Rosen. This is hilarious. I forgot about this. The offense just fell apart. They literally were one of the worst offenses of all time, got the first pick again, and then just took Kyler Murray and just pretended the whole thing never happened, which honestly,

they were ahead of their time. I mean, that is, yeah, that's actually another great lesson for a lot of teams. And that's exactly, it goes back to what we were talking about just now. Hyphids where you're like,

oh, Titan said Mariotta, you know, moving on from a guy who's clearly not going to be the guy, now it's always easy to say in hindsight who's clearly not the guy. But, yeah,

I mean, moving on and going with a better player, even at a position where it's so hard to do that with quarterback, I think it makes a lot of sense. And that's probably what the Jets are going to do this year, you know, at that M2 spot. I think that theory goes hand in hand with a theory about you don't need to trade up

for a quarterback. You don't need to invest time because there are going to be other quarterbacks available. You just want to keep on trying them out until you get the one that hits. Well, yeah. I don't know if it means don't trade up, but I think it does mean just don't, just be honest with yourself. I think that it's a mistake to draft Josh Rosen, but it's a significantly bigger mistake to not admit that you made a mistake because then they wouldn't have.

taking Kyler Murray. And at the time, it was a little radical. I mean, everyone kind of ended up getting and rolling with it, but they were the first one to be like, actually, we're going to completely abandon our first round quarterback from last year. And it basically never happened in NFL history to just take a different guy and be like, that guy we top 10 last year, we're done

with him. But they were right. And I think that other teams now are much more open-minded to it. But still, bad trade. The Cardinals walked so other teams could run. Exactly. Or fly, huh? Cardinals. And then the last one here is the Lamar-Tray. the Ravens traded quote unquote up. I don't think this one even counts. This was the second player in the first round

that the Ravens drafted. So every team in the league passed in Lamar, including the Ravens. So I don't even think that- Hayden Hearst, baby. I don't even think this counts even though technically they traded up for him. Literally every team passed on Lamar,

which says a lot. Then he won MVP. And then he won MVP. This shows how little the NFL knows and generally speaking, anyone knows about what Corbe. are going to do. And it's another example to me of a team that changed their whole philosophy,

changed their whole scheme, made it the perfect situation, not the perfect, but like a very good situation for Lamar to thrive. And not every team would have done that. Maybe some teams that try to turn them into like just a drop back pass or whatever. I just want to recount these buckets. We just good trades, bad trades. The trades that work, the teams that went up to grab a quarterback in the first round, and then it worked.

The Patrick Mahomes trade. Huge win. The Sean Watson trade. Josh Allen. Well, in the long term, well, they screwed up everything else, but that was a good move. That was a great move, yeah.

The Josh Allen deal and then Lamar Jackson, and Lamar Jackson doesn't even count because the Ravens, if they really wanted him, they would have taken him with their first first round pick. So it's really just three. It's Mojoms, Watson, and Josh Allen.

The trades that were they traded up and it didn't really work. Wait, hold on, because I kind of feel like, are we talking about process or results? I mean, that's a fair question. If you're talking about process, I kind of feel like the RG3 trade

was a good trade. It just didn't happen because he got hurt. That's fair. Yeah, that's fair. Regardless. So you put the RG3 trade in here for good trades. Fine. That's fair. RG3, Mahomes, Watts, and Josh Allen. So four. I'm not counting Lamar then. Because it's bad process. Bad trades that did not work. Lane Gabbard, Johnny Mansell, Jared Gough, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Lull, Mitchell,

Chubesky, Sam, Donald, Josh Rosen. Do we care that Jared Goff got the Rams to the Super Bowl? That's what I said to you and you left. I know, but now I'm rethinking it. Like maybe that was a good trade. I think we can put them in the mech. I think when Segoff go in the meh category, they're kind of like, I don't know if they won or lost.

I don't think it's fair to call them losers. And I also don't think it's fair to call them winners because they sign them to extensions and immediately regretted it. So I think that they're Mac. But regardless, it's kind of like a tie almost. It's very mixed feelings. Thinking about that list, how does this inform what you guys think now about this 2021 class?

Especially since overconfidence seems to be a theme. Can we get a score? How many, what was there, out of how many did we say were good trades and how many do we serve that? It's basically four good trades. No, I'm not counting Lamar. The good trades are four. It's RG3, Mahomes, Deshawn, and Josh Allen's, four good trades. And then there are six bad trades, Blaine Gabbard, Johnny Mansell, Paxton Lynch, who all those are late round.

Or sorry, Mansell and Paxton Lynch are late round. Mitchell, Chubisky, Donald Rosen. So there's four good trades, six bad ones, and then two meh ones of Gauphin once. And you're just throwing checks. out because they passed on him. Yes, I don't think it counts because it implies that the whole league, like, trading up implies that if you don't go get him, he won't fall to you. No, but if, I don't know.

If you trade up, you're implying that if you don't go get this guy, someone else will take him from you. And that literally was not what the Ravens did. I think more often than not here, it didn't work out for these scenes. And I think that's, that's generally true with, with draft. Quarterbacks in general. So it's maybe not the most profound thing for us to realize. But more often than not, it didn't work out for these teams.

And I think, did we at RG3 is a good one as opposed to a wash? That was my argument. You could make the argument against it, though. I think it's a good point because RG3 got hurt, and that was a really weird situation where Washington's field seemed to be subpar. They should have traded for Assad guy. Yeah, they should have traded for Assad guy. And then also they had this weird campaign.

he had that campaign with Adidas or whatever, like all in for week one that they launched in February. So he had a marketing campaign pressuring him to play and then he shouldn't have. It was just, it was bungled in a bunch of ways that probably to Deke's point it's not fair to put on the trade itself,

even though the outcome, the process was, I'm fine calling it a decent trade. I think overall, though, like what Roger was saying and what the big lesson here is, it's always a big crapshoot to take a quarterback bottom line, trading up and giving up major pieces to take a quarterback can compound the badness of doing it, right?

Like the badness of missing on a first-round quarterback. And so I don't know what the lesson is. I don't think teams can necessarily stop going up to get their guy because the quarterback has the power to change. It's like, you know, these trades might be compounded in a negative way if you miss on these guys. But at the same time, like, think about what the chiefs have done with Patrick Mahomes, you know, like the risk is worth the reward in that case. So teams are going to continue to do this.

I just think the lesson here is that, at least for me, as I'm trying to go through myself and evaluate all these quarterbacks, is that having overconfidence that you know who's going to be a good quarterback is probably a fool's errand. You know what I mean? Like these guys, so many variables come into play and so many different things have to go right. the three trades that really, really, really hit here are Mahomes, Watson, Josh Allen. So basically, it works out if you found a superstar.

But every team that's going to trade up is going to say, we really think this guy is going to be a superstar. It's like it makes sense if it's a superstar, but I really don't trust NFL team's ability to look at themselves and actually be right about that. I think they're going to be wrong more often than not. And when I'm looking at this draft class, with this middle section of quarterbacks behind Trevor Lawrence and head of back down, where you've got Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields,

and you have so many differing opinions on them, I wouldn't be willing to give up something just because I think one of those guys is going to be better than the others. I would wait for my turn and take the guy that falls to me, because you've got three guys there that I think are exciting and I think could turn out well. I would rather not end up giving up a first or second round pick to make sure I specifically have Trey Lance. Right.

Jack Wilson and Fields. Let's look at the actual draft here for a second. So the draft order is the Jaguars are first. They're going to take Lawrence. So basically the jets are on the clock at number two. They need a quarterback unless they keep Donald or trade for Deshaun. But right now they need a quarterback. the dolphins are at three

they're probably keeping two. I don't think it would be stunning if they did the Josh Rosen thing and dumped to it, but I think they won't. It wouldn't be. Yeah. Then you've got the Falcons at four.

I think they're expected to take a quarterback to eventually replace Matt Ryan. Then you got the Bengals at five who probably looking at a tackle or trading down. Then the Eagles at six who probably won a quarterback.

The Lions at seven who just have Jared Goff. And then the Panthers at eight who are probably aggressively looking at a quarterback. So that right there is depending how you count, that's one the jaguars jets falcons eagles and panthers that's like five teams who might take a quarterback

in the top eight so roger the jets are at the head of this pack right now so what do you like are you in a way would it be nuts if they traded down with like the falcons or the eagles and panthers and took a quarterback anyway is that crazy i don't think that'd be ridiculous to get a get a good haul and end up with it's risky though because you're going to see no one no no No one does that, to be clear. No one ever is just like, yeah, I'll just take whatever quarterbacks left. It's fine. That's just not a thing.

That's what, that's what, like, in theory should happen, but it's such a ridiculous thing. You don't want to go to, like, can you imagine the Jets having to, like, do that press conference where, like, the New York Post, the New York Daily News are like, so you could have drafted the second best quarterback, but you decided you were okay with the first place. What's up with that? They're like, well, I listen to this podcast and it's like, it's all just, our three rose anyway. We didn't have any conviction on any of these guys, so we're just

hoping for the best. Yeah. In theory, that's what like, in this draft, which seems to me like such a crapshoot, and it just, like, that's what I, like, that's what I'm doing in Madden where I can restart if it doesn't work out.

But like, yeah, I don't actually see them doing that hypothetical scenario. And it does seem to me like if you're the Panthers, they're at eight, and you're worried that all four of those quarterbacks are going to be gone, you're not just going to let it happen. You're going to trade up and try to get one of them,

whatever it takes instead of sitting around using a top 10 pick on Mac Jones. Miami's almost, I feel like Miami's a lock to trade back at number three. So I guess my thinking here is maybe we're looking at all of this a little backward. We have this very determined thing that it's about the player, right? And yet we kind of look at some of these. And a lot of it is also about the situation, right? The Eagles drafted once,

and yet that team went to the Super Bowl without them. They were really good. The Rams drafted Goff went to the Super Bowl. But like, not because of Goff. He was kind of like just there. And so I'm looking at these teams and it's like, should we be looking at this backward? And it's not, is Fields going to be good?

Is Trey Lance going to be good? It's which of these situations is best suited for a rookie quarterback? And whoever goes there will probably succeed. Because I'm looking at this list. I think the Falcons are a hell of a place for an opt for a quarterback to go. I don't really know or care if it's Justin Fields or it's Trey Lance. But like they have a solid offensive line. They've invested in that.

They have Julio Jones. They have Calvin Ridley. Arthur Smith, who's the new head coach, who's a great offensive mind. He like revitalized to handle his career. Why should I be more convinced that fields will be good or any of these individuals would be good instead of just being, I bet whoever goes to the Falcons will be the best guy. I think this is, yeah, this is such a great point. this is really like it's why it's it almost makes talking about these guys before the draft so

sort of moot because it does matter where they land right and I think it fields lands in Atlanta I'm going to be even more confident that he's going to have a good career you know what I mean because that's a great fit for him and then whoever lands with the jets is like you it starts to make you a little bit worried because the jets have that history now they do have a new coach they do have a new coach new offensive system and all that so maybe the maybe the slate is clean but I said earlier there are going to be three good quarterbacks and the Jets are going to draft the fourth one

with the number two pick. It wasn't, it was a little bit of a joke, but also kind of the way this works, as you were saying. Yeah. We're going to have whichever one gets to be coached by, how are we feeling about Matt,

what's younger brother as a Jets O's C? I think it's, I mean, we'll see. I mean, I think that the Shanhan system in theory is the best thing for Donald. But I kind of just think it's still the Jets.

I think Robert Sala is, I mean, he has to change the entire culture. And like if he does, Masel Tov, but I just, I'm not willing to bet on it. And I think it's important to note that we're basically saying, what are the quarterback tradeups that worked? Mahomes and Watson are the best two, right? And then Josh Allen. Well, it's worth noting before Mahomes showed up, the chiefs went 11 and 5, 9 and 7, 11 and 5, 12 and 4. Then they got Mahomes.

He sat for a year. They went 10 and 6. They made the playoffs four times before he showed up. The Texans, as much as we like to make fun of them, they did win the division, the two years before he showed up. Like they were in first place, made the playoffs, made the divisional round, and weirdly almost beat the Patriots somehow,

even with like Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, whoever they had that year. So I think it's worth noting that the guys who succeeded by and large were in really successful places. These were not guys that went to 2 and 14 dumpster fires. And it's like, hey, turn this whole thing around. They had a lot of help. You need to have someone from Western New York

tell you about the history of the Buffalo Bills. before Josh Allen. Yeah, I left that one off because it with the track but regardless. But they also made the playoffs, right? They did, yes. They also made the playoffs with Tyrod. Exactly.

So, yeah, the point stands. They were all building something before these dudes walked into the building. And I think that that's a really important point. I think that's such an interesting point too. And something that has been talked about recently is that in a lot of draft classes, right, the top, the first quarterback taken,

it's like much more rare that they turn into the best quarterback in that class, quote, best quarterback or like in hindsight the best quarterback. And it's like it's exactly because that. A lot of times these guys are going that are going the third or fourth or fifth quarterback in this class, they're going to a situation that helps them thrive. You know what I mean? They're going to better teams because they're being picked later. And so that's something that you can't forget either is, you know,

that's why like for instance, Joe Burrow has such a, he is a climb ahead of him because he, he landed on such a bad team with a bad roster. And Lawrence is going to face the same challenges. I'd say, you know, the landing spot is pretty solid for him. But the guys that go first overall or go in the top three or whatever, they have such a different, it's such a different scenario for them for their career. They have to really take charge of the teams and dig them out of the hole. So absolutely, I think that's a huge point to remember as we're going through all this process.

I did this post yesterday on the ringer.com. which is a website that I went through every draft. And of the 51 draft since the merger, 20 times the first quarterback taken has gone on to have the most successful career. So that's about 40%. And when it's the number one pick, it's a little bit better. It's 11 out of 24 at the number one spot, which is about 45%.

But still, that's less than half. You'd want it to be better with the number one pick. I mean, we did a whole thing on the number one picks, the last episode we did last Friday. And like they're kind of underwhelming. It's just kind of an underwhelming group. But to that point, for this year's draft, I think that maybe we can kind of invert the question here.

Instead of saying, D.K., who's like the best quarterback? I think that it's what's the dark horse team that could put a quarterback in a position to thrive? And I'm looking at this board. And we're like, oh, I'm looking at the 49ers here at the 12th pick. Jimmy Garoppolo, they could cut him tomorrow for, and pay him like $3 million or nothing. I don't think that'll happen.

But if the Niners were to draft a quarterback, I don't think anyone would be shocked, right? Because Jimmy G's fine, but he's not like some long-term superhero. And I kind of, I'm not like a huge Mac Jones fan. But if the Niners drafted Mac Jones at 12, or they traded up for Trey Lancet seven or something, and then five years from now, we're like, wow, that was the best pick. My takeaway isn't Mac Jones was the best class.

It's the Niners were the best place. And so I'm kind of looking at this in a different lens of the, Niners, if any of these guys go to San Francisco, I think, could immediately be the best player. Like, not at Mahomes, because no one's in my homes, but at Sean Watson level, wow, that guy's a great pick. And I feel the same way about the Falcons. And maybe, maybe about Denver, I'm not quite as confident in the overall staff, but they have, they invest, maybe. Yeah, they have a lot of receivers there in an offensive line, maybe. So why isn't Drew Locke?

I don't mind. Well, I think Drew Luck sucks. Okay, got it. But there you go. I'm following my own logic. Are there any other situations here that you guys think stand out that someone has a team could take a quarterback and that they would thrive in a specific situation? Dekhas, anyone stand out to you here?

Yeah, you have to throw the Saints into the mix. Granted, they have, what is it, negative 70 million? They're like over the cap, 70 million. So that is a factor. Yeah. So that's a factor. It's going to be hard for them to move up. But if you see a situation where, I mean, this is a long time ago,

but like Aaron Rogers fell into the whatever it was later part of the first round. And they only have to move up a few picks. Then that's the situation where you could be like, hey, you're landing on a team with a very good defense, Sean Payton calling plays, Michael Thomas catching passes. And you could build a scenario where this guy does the best of all of them, regardless of like the order that he gets taken it. Maybe it's Mac Jones.

maybe it's Trey Lancy Falls because he's an experience or whatever. That's a situation when I'll be watching and be like, hmm, I could actually see this guy having the most success out of everyone, even though he might be not my favorite guy in this class based on my rankings. Roger, any teams who stand out or any places you want one of these players to go? When you're talking about, when you're talking about which teams that already seem to have a good setup, the Dolphins having the number three pick because of that Texans trade. Yeah.

They almost made the playoffs with Tua, who had a bad rookie year, and maybe you wonder, can Tua develop into something better as other quarterbacks have in the past? But, man, you really wonder if, like, one of these guys is a Dynamo superstar quarterback, the dolphins grabbing that player and already having that incredible defense and everything that Brian Flores is building. That would be really cool. I hope too, it turns into that player, but it would also be interesting if they, they, they have such an interesting situation. I think the most likely thing is they do trade down because, you know, they already have that young quarterback and they clearly are good at building it seems. So they're going to want that, those extra draft picks.

But I don't know. I think that's such an interesting situation. And thank Bill O'Brien for making it happen. Bill O'Brien is actually God in Miami. They don't thank God in Miami. They just thank Bill O'Brien. Thank you, Bob, for everything. And I have to thank you, Roger, for coming on.

Thank you, D.K., this was a lot of fun. Roger, any final pleas for the Jets? Do you want to speak directly to GM Joe Douglas? Don't hurt me again. That's perfect. All right. Thank you, D.K., thank you, Roger. Thank you to everyone for listening.

That's the Big Board on the Ringer NFL show. And we will see you guys next week. And then also you can catch Kevin and Nora breaking down the latest in the NFL off season on Tuesday on this feed, especially that's the franchise tag deadline. So thank you guys for listening.