The Ringer NFL Show - Looking Back at the 2020 Season

Episode Date: January 6, 2021

Sharp and Verno look back at how the 2020 season played out and recap how Sharp’s preseason predictions panned out. Hosts: Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of the Ringer NFL show, Warren Sharp and I look back at the 2020 NFL season and graded all of his future bets from the start of the year, including how the Seahawks, Browns, and Vikings all paid off. Stick around. Welcome to The Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon. And before we get into everything today, we have a big announcement this weekend, immediately following the final game Saturday and Sunday, the Ringer NFL show is going live. on Saturday you can watch Kevin Clark and Ryan Rissillo and on Sunday Kevin Clark and Nora Princeati will be breaking down every playoff matchup make sure

you subscribe to the ringer's YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash the ringer and follow at Ringer NFL on Twitter. Now on to the show joining me as he does every week is Warren Sharp. Warren we have completed the regular season. The playoffs are ahead this weekend and today we are going to go through the immense amount of work that you do in the off season to predict how the season is going to play out. And now we get to look back on how you did on those predictions. Are you happy with the way the season played out in reference to your predictions? Oh, yeah. Very, very happy.

It was a very good season. I enjoyed it. More than anything, I'm relieved that we got through it, Chris. I'm relieved with all the questions last May, June, July. I'm, I was very worried that we weren't going to have a season. I was worried it was going to get massively interrupted. I was worried so many things about just the logistics of making the 2020 NFL season happen. And so for that reason, I could not be more happy that we were able to survive because apart from breaking down the games and trying to come up with game plans and strategies to help teams implement to win, as well as,

to just create what I think's going to happen in the game before it plays out the prognostication element for betting purposes. The next closest thing, number three, that I love the most, apart from my family, I guess, would be actually watching the NFL, watching the NFL happen and watching these games take place. So I was worried. It was a joy that it happened. And it's going to be fun to recap some of it with you here. Okay. So the teams, and how their seasons went. You had a bunch of wins on season win totals. Which of the win totals are you most proud of on an over or under basis?

The one that you felt most confident in, and it did play out just like you thought it would. Well, I mean, I went, we swept the board on the strongest stuff. When you're betting games, the one thing that you always try to do is to wait. This is very difficult to do, by the way, Chris. I'm sure you struggle with it. I do as well. Like it's something we really have to focus on hard to make it work. But you have to wait the strongest things the most and the weakest things the least. And when you do that, even if you go 50%, you're going to make money, right? If you bet more on the

stronger things and less on the weaker things, you can still flip coins and make money betting sports. So for me, though, the strongest stuff, I had four that were the strongest, and we went four and oh on those. of those four, we took the Vikings under their win total, the Broncos under their win total, the Colts over their win total, and the Ciox to make the playoffs. Now, I felt like everybody likes betting overs in the preseason, like for teams to win more games and the books shade those things. So you get a little bit more value betting unders and knows, like, no, this team's not going to make the playoffs.

Then you do betting yeses and overs. So the simple fact that I bet that I bet that. the Colts over and the Seahawks to make the playoffs and both of those hit, like a lot of other people were on those. So I can't really say, well, that was really great because like other people had that same thought process. I will say probably it was the Vikings under. You know, the Broncos, we'll talk about them in a second, but, you know, a lot of people are riding a Drewlock hype train. And let's dig into more of that in a moment. But I was fading that. I did my research. I was fading the Drewlock hype train. But with the Vikings, a lot of people out there thought that the

Packers could not sustain their 2019 season. All those wins in one score games and they were going to have to regress to the mean and they were going to lose those games. And so if they're falling back, who is going to win more games in the NFC North? Because somebody has to. You got to have, they play all these games in the same division. Somebody's got to take those wins. And people, some people thought the Lions might. I had a small, small play on the Lions. at six and a half, which lost. But many people thought that it was going to be the Vikings who were going to take that next step. You know, they made the playoffs last year.

They done pretty well. They'll take the next step. And I was like completely off the Vikings train. And you know, like we talked about it on the show early and how we kept betting against the Vikings early in the season. So that was probably the one that was the most satisfying, just being right when a lot of people kind of thought the Vikings were going to be the team to come out of the NFC North this season. All right. And then, well, just walk me through the Broncos. Now, going in, you're writing your book and you can't know that Vaughn Miller's going to be out. Cortland Sutton's going to be out. They'd lose Drew Locke and at one point have to play a backup wide receiver at quarterback for one of the games. I mean, I mean, look, the bet hits, right? But you can't know all of those things going in. So with that being said, were you mildly impressed with the Broncos season? given that you thought they were going to be, obviously, an under 500 team.

And then I would imagine you became insanely confident that they'd be an under 500 team when they lose their best offensive weapon. They lose their best defensive player in the hub of their defense. And you see the way the season played out with all the COVID stuff and everything else. They still, you know, they were not a rat team throughout the year. No, and I love, I learned the usage of the word to rat, team from you on this pod. So I love it when you toss that, that, uh, moniker out there. I'm going, I will give credit where credits do. I heard it so many times from a old Vegas wise guy,

Alan Boston, who I've had on for many years, Alan Boston used to call teams rat teams every once in a while. And I lifted that years ago. I love it. Yeah. So it's good. And no, they aren't a rat team. I think for me, And as you know, and we've talked about this probably before the season, I literally, this offseason was a little bit different because of COVID and how badly that hit everything and shut down everything in March and changing up so many different things. And I usually travel during that time to visit various different teams. And so we weren't doing any of that, obviously, this season. So there was a little bit more freedom from that perspective. But at the same time, there's other things that you're worried about and focusing your life on. Usually, though, I start right away in

March, cranking on my book. And I put like four months of work into it, March, April, May, June, all the way through, I'm working my ass off on this thing trying to come up with what I think is going to happen. And then obviously come out and publish it in late June, early July. And what I was noticing when I was doing my research was that Drew Locke was not as good as a lot of people thought and people were looking at this five game sample size that he had at the end of the 2019 season where he won four of the five games. I think the only game he lost was a snow game in Kansas City. And they're thinking, oh, this guy's a second coming. Like, look at all these weapons. They drafted all these wide receivers. They had no offense. They had the receivers that were

there previously. Like, they're stacked offensively with skill positions. They bring in Melvin Gordon. They have Philip Lindsay still. Like, they've got all these weapons offensively. But the key to is you can have whatever weapons you want. If you have a quarterback that's below average, they're still only so far that you can go. And I was worried about their secondary and some of the pieces that they lost in the secondary. And I just felt like this is a team that was sitting at,

was it eight wins, at some spots eight and a half with a little bit heavier juice. I was like, this team is going to have a losing record. And so, yeah, they probably don't finish five and 11 if they don't have some of those other things. happen, but I still don't think that this was a winning team, even if they had things go right for them this year. They still don't finish any better than seven and nine, in my opinion. But I will say this, people ripping like Vic Fangio, like I thought that was unwarranted.

I think Vic Fangio, as long as you, I don't necessarily love the offense coordinator, but if you pair him with a good offensive coordinator, just let him worry about his defense and coach the team, I think he's fine. I have, I have no qualms. with Vic Fangio as a head coach. Like, let's see what he can do next year. I mean, some people wanted him gone after this season. I didn't see that. I'm not saying I love the guy.

I'm not saying I'm a fanboy or a believer or a contrarian that I think he's great. I'm just saying, I don't think he deserved to be fired this year. I think he deserves a longer leash. I think this team would be better with a better offensive coordinator. And I'm still not a believer in Drew Locke. I still am not. I wasn't after last year's four and one. record through the last five games as a starter.

And I'm definitely not this year with winning five of 16 games. After you've done all that research and you put together your book and you put together what you think these teams are going to do, which of the ones going into the season? Now, you nailed the bets. Those are the ones you feel very strongly about, but things that maybe even you didn't bet on, teams that did much better this season than maybe you would have thought going in. Are there a couple of those? Yeah, there are.

I was a little bit reluctant about the Raiders. I think the Raiders played, I didn't bet on or against the Raiders, but I think the Raiders played a lot better than I expected them to. You know, producing an 8-Nate record with that defense is not the worst thing in the world. Like, that defense was an abysmal defense

by the end of the season. And so, you know, I thought that that team was surprising. They brought the chiefs to the test a couple of different games. Well, and you mentioned a couple of different times during the season, the car was outperforming what you thought of him. Yeah, exactly. And that's where I look first and foremost when I'm looking at these things.

It's like, if I'm looking at a future, I'm looking at team that outperformed, like, I'm looking at the quarterback and how they did and how they performed. A lot of people would probably throw the Cleveland Browns in that mix, but I can't say the Cleveland Browns because I bet on them to make the playoffs. And I bet on Stefansky to win coach of the year at 30, well, I sent it to clients. at 25 to 1 odds. I bet it was able to get it before it was truly widely available at a little bit better than that.

But the fact is that Kevin Stefanski was great as a coach in how he improved what Baker Mayfield was doing. And the reason I think he should win coach of the year is because of where he's coach, where he was coaching, the environment he was thrust into. I don't care that you might say, well, he had some talented players there. Every team's got a couple of talented. to players. Heading into that season,

people were writing off Baker Mayfield as not being a good quarterback. People, no coach had won there. No teams had coached Baker Mayfield. They lost. No coach had had a winning record. They hadn't made the playoffs since, I think 2004.

They hadn't had a winning season since like 2007. I mean, we're talking about like well over a decade that this team has not produced anything sniffing success. And here they are his first year. They make the playoffs. His first year, they win 11 games.

Like, to me, it's a no-brainer. I mean, there's some other coaches that did well this season, but that was a no-brainer. The other team that I don't want to ignore here that significantly outperformed what I expected of them was the Miami Dolphins. Because this was a team. Now, I certainly didn't bet them under. I didn't bet on or against the dolphins. But Brian Flores, with what he did this season, I mean, some people have him for coach of the year. But this was not his first year with the team.

and what he did certainly was impressive. But, you know, the turnaround that I expected from this team, I was high on the Dolphins to be a much better team this year than they were last year. I wrote about it extensively in the book about in the 2019 season how many young first and second year players they had on their defense and how many guys that didn't have experience or were injured were on that defense. all these tabulations and compared it to the rest of the NFL. And it was ridiculous how bad this defense was in 2019 and how young they were and they did not care. They made intentionally put all

these young guys without experience. But then in the offseason, you could see the plans start to develop. They went out and specifically targeted a lot of veterans to play key roles on the defensive side of the football so they could have a lot of success. And of course, that's what got them over the hump. Ryan Fitzpatrick was absolutely outstanding when he was in there. Tua really wasn't all that outstanding, but they kept them in there because they're building towards the future. It's not about 2020. It's about 2021 and 2022. They wanted Tua to get the reps and experience to see what they've got here and how much they can improve him by the time he's in his fourth year that they could try to have a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl.

But what was really impressive was just how this defense got better and all these pieces that they added in a year of change, in a year of COVID, where there was no offseason, you know, big camps. And there wasn't any preseason where you could play these guys in games that Brian Flores got all these guys to work together and perform really well on the defensive side of the football. I was super, super impressed by the job that he was able to do with the dolphins. And it's hard to remember how good that was for the majority of the season because they got 56 dropped on them on their head with their season on the line, right? So, I mean, it's like it's a hard sell to remember everything that happened throughout

the season and how much they impressed us when, you know, what happened last, our lasting image is them going to Buffalo, Buffalo sitting their guys in the second half and getting 56 points dropped on them because that's just such a rare thing for a NFL team to score 56 in the first place. Yeah, and that's another thing. You brought up a great point. There's two other things that I thought were impressive that I did not bet on or against. The Buffalo Bill is in general.

Like the bill is winning 13 games this year. And more than anything, it was the way that, like, I was high on Josh Allen from the perspective of the moves that the team made and Brandon Bede made to bring in these wide receivers, these smaller guys that could get open quicker and make separation quicker, make it easier for Josh Allen to throw. they started doing that after the 2018 season heading into 2019, and then they built on that further, obviously with Stefan Diggs being added to the mix. I thought they've done a great job from a personnel perspective. But what I think we all believed, you know, I don't think anybody listening to this podcast would not believe,

is that, okay, if the offense can just get a little bit better, this defense is already really good, you know, from 2018 and 2019. The calling card was a defense. That's how they were making the playoffs those years, is from the defense. And they could just get a little bit better offensively, like this defense can do enough to carry him. And all of a sudden, boom, what does Brian Dayball do?

He comes out with a totally overhauled offensive scheme, philosophy, much more aggressive, pass on early downs, a lot of confidence in Josh Allen. And then, boom, Josh Allen delivers as well, much more accurate, much more precise, just a totally new quarterback. and the combination of Daeball and Josh Allen was what carried this team because the defense was trash. The defense legitimately was terrible

over the first two-thirds of the season. And so the fact that they were winning these games because their offense was insane and their defense was bad was something I absolutely did not expect. Well, one thing on the bills before you move on because I was reading something the other day that I wrote down, which is crazy.

It said, the bills, you know, they're 13 and 3, as you mentioned. One, the first loss is a Tuesday night loss on the road to the Titans. The second loss is six days later. They lost to the defending champions on a Monday at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. And the third loss is the Hail Murray against the Arizona Cardinals. Like that's insane, Ward. Like there is a, look, there's reasons and excuses and you can decide whether it's a reason

or excuse, but we must admit, all three of those are pretty extreme circumstances, right? It's not, you're normal. Like, they were playing on weird days. They played that one day, as I mentioned, they played at four o'clock on a Monday, for God's sake, six days after they had just played a game before. So, like, there's, like, even when you look at, they only lost three games, and all three of those have strange circumstances. Oh, I mean, the difficulty is that the bills have faced.

I don't think enough people talk about them. That game against the Titans, week five, was a game that the Titans had this massive outbreak within their facility, right? They had an outbreak within their facility. I think it was week four. The bills did not know if they were going to play the Titans in week five. And the game got delayed till Tuesday. The bills flew in like the day before.

And while they're sitting at the airport to fly down there, like they're still not sure if they're actually playing this game. They had already started and spent a little bit of time game planning for the cheap. because they were supposed to play the chiefs the next Sunday. And it's like, well, we're, you know, are we playing on Tuesday or not? Because we got the chiefs in less than a week. Right. And, and then so they fly down there.

They have to play the Titans. Then they come back home and they are playing the chiefs on a short week because they played Tuesday. Now they're playing on Monday and is it is an afternoon game. And it's in the rain and it's against Patrick Mahomes and they just run the ball a ton. The chiefs just run the ball and control the clock. So they played in that rain game. You mentioned the Hal Murray.

Also, let's consider at the end of the season, this team plays multiple weeks in a row on short rest because they played, I think the Steelers on Sunday night football week 14. Then they played week 15 in Denver on a short week because that game was on a Saturday. And then, oh, they played the Steelers on a short week because they played Monday night in San Francisco. Well, it was in Arizona, but they played the 49ers on Monday night. then they come and play the Steelers on a short week on a Sunday. Then they have to play Denver in Denver on another short week on a Saturday. So they won all three of those games. But this team has been at like some rest disadvantages for many different weeks this season and have really outperformed expectations.

The last one that I just wanted to mention real quick, again, didn't bet on or against, but was the Chargers. And specifically Justin Herbert. I mean, you thought that this was going to be Tyrod Taylor's team, and Justin Herbert may come in at some point, but with a shortened offseason and with where he was taken, like a lot of people didn't really think that he was going to start right away. And boom, all of a sudden right away, they inject Tyrod Taylor into his long or incorrectly, whatever that was with the shot, the needle.

And here's your starting quarterback. And he's impressed me tremendously, especially with the way that that team was coached offensively. I know they're doing some things or they were doing some things from a schematic perspective that did help him when he was passing the ball. But their overall way that they utilized him and asked him the times that they asked him to pass the ball, he was passing in disadvantageous situations too frequently. I'm excited to see if they go after an offensive minded coach to work with him. But I absolutely join the masses of people who did not think that Justin Herbert will be anywhere close to as good as he's been this season.

Oh, and especially after what we had seen from him at Oregon. Yeah. This was not, this is not exactly the Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence career, right, where we watched them throughout their time and thought this guy is an absolute sure thing. People were torn. And that's obviously why he didn't go number one, right? Because he has, I mean, he's got the size, he's got the arm. You know, there were, there were knocks against him.

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All right, things that you were most mad about, prediction-wise. I asked you about those teams that over-performed. What about teams that, like, underperformed or it just didn't play out the way you thought? Or the team that was just consistently a thorn in your, side because they didn't do what they are projected to do. Well, the easiest team for me would be the Dallas Cowboys, your team.

How dare you? Talk to me. What are you talking about? You didn't predict them to lose every week? Because that's what they did. They didn't cover until like week 10 or something like that. Yeah. So it was absolutely the Dallas Cowboys.

And obviously you can't predict Dak Prescott going out with his. injury. And as it turns out, right, like, I bet smaller on these things, but I did bet the Cowboys to win the NFC East. Well, they would have. You would have right about that. They're absolutely, they absolutely would have given what this division, uh, devolved into over the course of the season. Um, so that was one that I was wrong about that I was most, uh, upset about it. However, the silver lining is, as much as I bet on the, on them to win the NFC East, I also bet on them catching two points at the Minnesota Vikings in week 11. Now, listen to this.

So you can bet on the individual games before the season starts. You can bet on weeks one to 16. They don't line week 17 because there's too many questions. But on Vegas and some spots offshore, too, they will line the games with lines. So even in August, you can sit here and be like, okay, well, week eight, the Steelers are playing the Browns. Here's the line. do I they don't do totals but do I see value in this number so I go through every single one of

those I'm looking for I've got I've got I feel like I've got so much of an edge with my knowledge before the season spending so much time working on this that I try to bet everything I can look for every value that I possibly can and get down on it cap that at though Warren what do they cap that at some spots a dime some spots two dimes so you're telling you in a thousand or two thousand correct yes so there's people that will take two thousand dollars on a week 16 game. Yes. Before the season.

Before the season. That's crazy. So in that particular game, like I was, what did I just say? I was higher on the Cowboys. I was lower on the Vikings. And I saw that they're playing each other. And I saw that the Cowboys, we were catching two points. And the times that you want to bet on these future lines are when you think you're

going to get a better number now than what you'll get later, like during the season. You, like, oh, I'm not going to be able to get a two. it'll be something else. And so, like, that's, that's the whole purpose of doing, of getting early. What did that number end up being? So, DAC goes out and I'm like, oh, my God. And the Vikings obviously start off, the Vikings obviously start off terrible, but then the Vikings start winning some games.

And they're getting on a little run of their own. So the Vikings end up closing, I think, a seven point favorite against the Cowboys in that game. And I'm like, to the guys I were, I'm like, oh, man, is it going to be a disaster. you know, these guys are going to be so pissed that I got us on this one because, you know, we took two and the line's now seven. And that never happens, right? That never happens. We're always getting the best of the number by many points typically on these.

And the Cowboys go in there and they win the game outright. And I could not have been happier. I called these guys immediately after. I was like, you'll never guess what just happened. We had this ticket from before the season. So at any rate, that was one where I was. I got a little bit of silver lining back on the Cowboys, but they were probably the team that I was most disappointed.

Because I also took a really small, long-shot future on them to win the entire NFC conference, which would have been wrong because they wouldn't have been able to do anything better than what, like the Packers did, for example, their defense was just too bad, and their defense coordinator was too bad. Yeah, you know, I must tell you, Warren, my real consolation is what a debacle Mike McCarthy was.

is I look over and I see the team he left and they're only like, what are they, like 25 and 7 since he left, I think. Yeah, exactly. At least they've fallen on real hard times. At least we realize it wasn't his fault. At least it's not his fault, right? Since they changed coaches, they're like 25 and 7 and they're like the number one seed. I'm like, oh, that's great.

Yeah, I'm sure you've got a lot of confidence heading into 2021. I feel great. With who's in charge. But the other ones I mentioned earlier, like the Lions, I bet them small over six and a half lost that one. And, you know, they probably should have won this week's 17 game against the Vikings. I cannot believe the calls that that one particular referee was making. I mean, I tweeted out the video on that. I saw your tweet and I was like, yo, is this guy for real?

Is he fixing the game? It looked, it looked highly suspect. and I'll tell you some of the numbers that that video did because everybody saw the same thing that I did. When the Marvin Jones catch is, that's outrageous that they could review it and come back and say it's not again, right? Because it's almost like the guy gets checked on that.

You would think that's the checks and balances of the situation, right? Exactly. You can't have a guy go back on. When it's called touchdown on the field, you got to have clear and obvious that it wasn't. And his own logic for why it wasn't is, Quote, he didn't maintain possession through the catch. Dude, he's not falling out of bounds.

He's laying in the end zone. It's okay if it moves around in his hands. When he's laying in the end zone, as long as it never touches the ground, which there was absolutely no evidence that the ball ever touched the ground. Nor did the referee say the ball touched the ground. He said he didn't maintain control, which is not even a reason to overturn a call. So that was complete horses. Did that cost you the season went over?

No, if I had six, it would have. They won five games. So that would have gotten me to six. I didn't take six. But I'm sure there are some people out there who had six on them. But that video, I mean, we had, we had like 98,000 likes and over three million, three million views of the video is crazy. And so that was one. And then I took the Washington football team, you can do some weird things.

So like, I took the Washington football. Washington football team to finish third in the NFC East at plus 187. So I obviously anticipated the Cowboys because I said the Cowboys who'd win the Division. Eagles. And then I anticipated the Eagles. And I was down on the Giants. I was down on the Giants. I was down on Daniel Jones.

I was down on their new coaching stuff. I liked Ron Rivera a little bit more. And so I thought that the talent that the Washington football team had was going to be sufficient enough to come in third place, coupled with some of the things in their schedule. They obviously ended up winning first place in the division. So that was a long shot. And then I took another

small long shot on, it was plus 650 on the Ravens to have the most regular season wins. And obviously I was wrong on that. Again, I was like a quarter of what I bet on the other things. But I

So no big losses. Nothing was. No, I mean, my, the, the, The things that I went, so the way I divide up my futures for like clients and then we bet them obviously, but one unit, a half unit or a quarter of a unit. And my one unit plays, we swept the board, four and O. My half unit, there was like four wins and two losses, something like that, four wins and two losses. And then the smaller ones, the long shot ones lost, like the Cowboys to win. That was plus 700. That lost. The Ravens to win the most regular season wins. These were all like the small ones. That was a plus 650. That lost Washington football team to finish

third. That was a plus 187. That was like a 0.25 unit one. And then I had a 0.1 unit on Stifansky to win coach of the year. So obviously that would really good return, but I'm not going to put up like a lot on that ahead of time. So I'm hoping and pulling that he. does get that because that was that was i mean you can see all these coaches lined and you could bet on tons of long shot type things i try to focus on the one that i think has the best shot for whatever my logic is and i roll with that so literally the only guy that i bet to win coach of the year was defansky so the fact that he almost could win it is already nice for me to be like oh yeah i'm i'm i'm close to being right like that not as many people probably predicted it but

I don't care at this point. I just want the payout, you know. So when you go in and you make these predictions at the beginning of the season, you go in with the idea of like, hey, I'm not real high on Drew Locke or I'm not real high on Daniel Jones. Those are names that you have mentioned prior to. Was there anybody that outperformed your opinion, that your opinion changed on the most, maybe even a quarterback, right, that this year, I know you had mentioned Herbert earlier, but any players throughout the league that you do as the season played out you thought

maybe I maybe I had that guy pegged wrong or maybe he's better than what I gave him credit for when I did the book yeah so I mean there's a number a number I'll just go through the list of teams and go through the ones that my opinion was was lower or higher on than what it ended up at the end of the season I was lower on Josh Allen and and I think everybody was I was a little bit higher on Cam Newton. Like I thought Cam would be a little bit better than what he's done up here in New England. It's really been very disappointing. He's done as a starter, right?

I think he's done. I think he's done. His whole body, he like, it's like everything's his whole shoulder. Like the whole throwing motion is like putting so much effort to throw the ball like six yards downfield. I was listening to Simmons a couple weeks ago when he was doing a podcast with Sal. And he said, you know, he's got a group text of a bunch of Patriots fans. And I get one of the fans on there said that when Cam throws the ball, it looks like he's trying to skip a rock across a lake. And every time I watched him throw since then, I can't get that damn text out of my head of him trying to skip a rock across a lake.

I don't know what happened, man, but not. He does. He does. That's a great mental image because it's exactly. exactly the way it looks like. All right. So the higher on Cam, I think we all were, especially after that Seahawks game,

it looked like, hey, they might be okay without Tom Brady and they were not okay. I was a little bit. I was higher on Lamar Jackson and he underperformed. Now,

I will say, and this is actually true with Cam and now Lamar falling into this category. Both these guys got COVID. Now, Lamar wasn't playing good enough before the COVID too. But, you know, COVID hits different guys different ways.

And thankfully, I nor any of my family have gotten it yet. But talking to people who've had it and different people in the league, I mean, like you look at Miles Garrett with the Cleveland Browns. I mean, he is still, he had asthma beforehand. He got COVID. He's still struggling to breathe out, like press conferences and stuff. I mean, so it just has different effects on different people. And it's not something that's easy to get over when you're an athlete like this, when

even like a couple of ticks of a percentage point off of where. I'm normally at 100, maybe late in the season. I'm at 90, but now I got COVID. Like, it changes a lot of things. But he didn't have as good of a season as I was anticipating. I would say I'm thankful that Philip Rivers did what he did. And I'm really happy that the Colts made the playoffs, not just because I took them on a win total,

but like I want Philip Rivers in the postseason. Like, this guy deserves to be here. Unfortunately, he's going up against the bill. it's a terrible draw for the Buffalo Bills and for the Colts. I think these two teams should be going at it in the second round of the Wild Card weekend, not the first round. That's just a great matchup, but like two well-deserving teams for the postseason. But I'm happy for Philip Rivers.

A guy that I wish could be on any other team in the whole league would be Deshaun Watson with the Texans. I don't know what they're going to do moving forward. I hope that they get a coach in there who understands things and a good job. GM to manage things, but like, DeShan, he's just such a baller and I feel terrible that he's stuck down in Houston. The fact that that guy led the league in passing Warren,

I mean, and Will Fuller went out for the suspension, right? I mean, it's like Kiki Kutei and go around and ask people who plays receiver for the Texans, now that DeAndre Hopkins isn't there. Like go to your local bar and say, name a Texans receiver.

Oh, yeah. Well, no. And even, and beyond that, mentioned a couple of great names. Like, I think a lot of people were like, dude, this, Deshaun Watson is going to really struggle without DeAndre Hopkins. DeAndre Hopkins was the man, right? And then boom, Deshaun Watson keeps producing. And then it was like, oh, God, look at the splits with and without Will Fuller. Without Will Fuller, he's just terrible. He's not going to be able to do anything when Will Fuller's not there. Nope, Will Fuller's not there. He's still bombing it away and having a ton of success. And this dude is just a straight baller. He's a

competitor. And he's so talented. I love watching him play. You never can count him out. I mean, he should have won, it sucks, but he should have won two games against the Colts potentially. They had the ball and were driving for a score, and they turned it over on either like the last play of the game or within like the last few seconds of the game, twice against the Indianapolis Colts and they lost those games.

I see what you think about this, because, again, I know it's a 53-man roster. You got everything figured out, but you're seeing all these people put out these, like, charts about like, here's what this job offers. And if you get this job, if you get the chargers, you got Justin Herbert and you got this and you got this amount of money. And if you get the Jets job, you got Sam Donald and this amount of money to spend and the blank

traffic. And because you see that a lot when they're pumping up the Jacksonville job. And what a great situation. Because you assume that they'll just be able to get Trevor Lawrence. And that's fine. Like to me, the Texans is the one that's like not mentioned. And I know that they, you know, they gave up their draft pick this year. So they don't have the draft pick that they should have for being so shitty this year.

That being said, to me, they have the surefire guy, right? Like, this ain't a guessing game as to how he's going to end up. This is like a proven guy that if I get that job, I know I've got Deshaun Watson under contract on my team as my quarterback. And I kind of feel like that's a job that's not brought up as a good job. but if you've got him as your quarterback, that's a good job. You know, that's the hardest thing to do. You could have 52 good guys in a shitty quarterback and you're not going to have a good team, right?

But if you've got him, it can make up for a lot of problems. They get a good coach there. Yeah, it can. I mean, the good thing is, like, the hardest part is finding a quarterback, and they found a quarterback. And the, but the best thing to do is to actually win something. something with this quarterback before you actually have to pay him. Right. And the problem for the Texans is not 2021 when he only hits the cap for $15.9 million.

You're still in a great position there. So they structured this deal so that it was going to be really easy for them to look good the first couple of years. I mean, he signs this new $156 million deal. And he's hitting the cap for only $9.8 million this year and only $15.9 million next year. But then in 2022, it goes. up the 40.4 million and then 42 million the year after that. So his cap hits are going to obviously explode,

but that's the next most difficult thing you have to worry about, right? Is how to build your roster around a guy that you've, a franchise guy that deserves to be paid, what you've got. And I will put it this way. That's a good problem to have. You wish you could have won something when he was still on his rookie deal.

But too many guys got franchise contracts for quarterbacks. that don't live up to those dollars. And right now, Deshawn Watson has shown us nothing to indicate he's not going to live up to these dollars. So if you're going to spend a massive chunk of change, which you have to do for a quarterback of his caliber, you need him to produce what you're paying him.

And he's fortunately going to be doing that for them. So other guys that I was, we already mentioned Justin Herbert and I was more impressed with Derek Carr than what I anticipated ahead. into the season. Moving over to the NFC, obviously Carson Wentz, a big disappointment there with his production. You know, Mitchell Tribeschi in the Nick Folls situation, I think we got what we paid for with that whole deal. You don't think Mitch is better than what you gave him credit for? To start the season, Mitch was not better than what we gave him credit for. And that's why

he got benched. Now, during this last stretch, what has changed is that Bill Laser is now calling plays and he's using a lot more 12 personnel and I for the life of me had no idea what the hell Matt Nagy was doing earlier on in the season. Yes, they were winning games with like better defense and doing enough offensively against weaker teams, but they were throwing the ball way too much from three wide sets when they should have been throwing it more from 12 personnel with just like two tight ends or three tight end sets and 13 personnel. It just weren't doing that. So what how is how is he performing better down the stretch? Is it because they played literally the number one easiest schedule of opponents from weeks, I think,

12 through 16. They got Bill Laser now calling better plays than Nagy was. Or is it that Mitch is actually better? And, I mean, Mitch didn't look that much better last week against the Packers. And we'll see what he does in the postseason. But I think we know who Mitch Tribisky is at this point. So I don't think I'm saying he was better or worse. They won a couple more games down the stretch than I thought they might.

But moving through, I'm glad Brady finally came around. We talked about this on the earlier pot I did with Bill Simmons about how the bucks finally, thank God, are throwing the football a little bit more on early downs the last several weeks. And I hope that that continues because that's the only way they're going to win games in the playoffs is if they pass the ball on early downs in the first half instead of relying on freaking Leonard for net to try to carry this offense you brought brady down there for a reason he is your offense don't rely upon uh byron left which to run the ball with leonard for net and

make that be what happens for you to go home in a elimination game scenario in the postseason um i like i liked what we got out of teddy bridgewater a lot of people did not obviously i wish he could have been better but like i'm my first opinion of bridgewater is will my boy boy cover the spread and he is the dude he is that dude who covers the spread like no other especially when he's an underdog now it didn't work out week 17 I did take the Carolina Panthers to cover the spread

and that didn't work but Teddy Bridgewater is great at covering spreads I don't really know um you know what what they're going to get out of him I hope that they because they may be losing their offense coordinator um for the Carolina Panthers but uh other than that I loved what I saw finishing up the FC West. I love what I saw from Russell Wilson to start the season. He's still fine. He's

fallen back a little bit lately. And the team like seems to have lost confidence in their passing attacks. They want to run the ball, be a little bit more balanced. I think they're going to have to let Russ cook a little bit more in the postseason. I do not want this to be another postseason like we've seen in years past where they're trailing in the fourth quarter and relying upon Russ to will the team back in the game to get a victory. And maybe he does it once. Maybe he does it twice. But, like to be banking on that philosophy and that strategy when you could just let him pass the ball more on early downs. I really hope that they do that a little bit more often. Yeah, other than that, I mean, Jimmy, Jimmy G was a little bit more disappointing than we thought with the 49ers

after their Super Bowl trip. Yeah, there's a lot of stories about they're moving on from him. Yeah, I mean, I could see it. Kyle Shanahan wants to raise this team up to the highest level possible. He's a very competitive coach. And he's got a great office. offensive scheme that can take quarterbacks that aren't the most upper echelon guys and produce winning teams. If we look at like what he did with Matt Ryan and Jimmy G and getting these guys to the Super Bowl and on the doorstep with double digit leads in the second half of games to winning a Super Bowl. So he doesn't necessarily need like, oh my God, we got to go out and trade for like the best quarter. We got to go spend a lot of money on Matthew Stafford, right? They don't need to necessarily do

but they need to find somebody who's going to stay healthy and I think has a touch more upside than Jimmy G does. So it'll be interesting to see what they do there. Last thing before we get out of here today, we talked a lot about futures and how those played out for you this year and those players and who underperformed and overperformed versus what you thought. At the one of the first shows we ever did, you said you liked the future on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. All right. So now we know how the playoffs, a layout. We know how all these teams have played. Are we hedging on that? Is there a good, no. No. No, I mean, I have them, I have them in my, in my bag at plus 400.

And it's down to like plus 137 right now. Is there anybody else we should take? Not right now, to be honest with you. No. I like the Buffalo Bills. They got a tough game this week. They're going to like the AFC is just stacked. I mean, there's no like walkover games. With the lone exception possibly, possibly. And this could change in a heartbeat if Ben Rothsburger has a bad game or the offense calls dumb plays or defense gives up a long rushing touchdown. But like, you know, with the COVID issues that the Browns are dealing with, it's hard, it's hard to envision them going into Pittsburgh on Sunday night football and winning that

game. But without any fans there, I mean, anything's possible, right? Kevin Garnett taught us that. But I think the Steelers advance, like the AFC is just stacked in the postseason. And the NFC, the reason I don't feel all that confident with like going out on the limb on a future for the NFC right now is simply because it's all going to be predicated based upon the matchups who a team plays versus doesn't have to play. Like if you're the Packers, right, you may end up having to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first, in your first game of the playoffs. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicked the shit out of the Packers earlier this season winning 38 to 10 because. because they were able to get pressure on Aaron Rogers.

Now, that's not necessarily going to happen at home in Green Bay. Right? But it might. The scores are going to be anything close to 38 to 10, but it could. And then you got a Tampa Bay team that crushed the Packers, right? But what do we know about Tampa Bay?

They can't play against the Saints. They don't match up well at all with the Saints. The Saints stomped them twice in both of those games. So maybe they fixed something. Maybe they've changed something, but it's still a bad matchup. But on the Saints front, I was just telling somebody the other.

day about how sometimes these playoff games that we don't expect to be that great. And this one stands out of my mind. My wife and I went, we had gone, it was going to be the last game of the day and we were going to go try to catch a movie at the end of Saints Vikings. And I saw the digs play in my car before we walked into the movie theater. And that's Case Keenum. We remember I was reading something the other day about how like the Washington's going in here with this losing record. The last team with the losing record was the Seahawks.

That was the Beast Mode game against the Saints. So is that like the Saints can't get beat by some, they got beat by Keith Keene and they got beat by a seven and nine beast mode team? Like if they lost to like the Bears, it's like, it's not like they haven't crapped themselves before in the playoffs. So I don't trust them. no they they haven't and and one of the stats that you're alluding to is uh is first is sorry home dogs now they they don't fall into the home dog mode mode mode game and the tim tibo game were two examples of where there's a large home underdog in the postseason which is very rare and both of those teams won out right so it's a washington Pittsburgh Steelers that's so it's Washington could shock

the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady week one. Like you, we really, some of these things in the NFC are just hard to, to forecast. And by the way, Oh, and Chase, Chase Young, he, look, he wrote the check. So we'll see

if he could cash it, but if he, if he had four sacks, would it shock you? Of course not. That guy is like, I mean, it's like a whole of famer out there. No, and what's the recipe? What's the recipe?

to beating Tom Brady, right? It's being able to get pressure with just four guys. And playing him at bedtime. Playing him at bedtime. Playing him at bedtime. And I tweeted, I don't know if you saw it, but I tweeted last night at Tom Brady. And you know what? I said, Tom Brady, if you're still awake right now, like this tweet.

And guess what? He did not like the tweet. So I only can assume that he is sleeping and he's not adjusting his body clock. And this could potentially be a problem. So we'll see if he's awake tonight and maybe comes back and likes that tweet. But yeah, just a nugget. I will be talking about it on the show with House as well. But from my guys, Rich Rebar and a TA over at my Sharp website,

four point home underdogs are 8.1 ATS since the merger in the postseason. So like you're talking about it's very rare for a team to be a home dog in this round. And we got a huge home dog here. Right now, the bucks are favored by eight points. Eight? Eight. It was even nine, nine and a half earlier. It's come down a little bit now.

It's at some of the sharper shops, they're dealing eight. Some of the square shops are dealing eight and a half to nine. And that should tell you something. I know you and you and House are going to be talking all about the lines coming up to this weekend. But I must ask you, as you are watching that board all day, which line has gotten beat up the most? of any of the of any of the games that are coming up this weekend it's definitely the pittsburgh steeles against the cleveland browns the pittsburgh steelers were the line opened at three and a half it was to minus four and then it started leaking to four and a half and then boom all of a sudden

covid news kevin sophansky's dealing with covid a couple other players you're dealing with covid and and one of which is an offensive starting offensive lineman and the one the book on Baker Mayfield. If you can get pressure on him, he's nowhere close to being the same type of guy. And, you know, Pittsburgh played Cleveland yesterday sitting half their team. And this go around, they see what Cleveland wants to do, how Cleveland wants to attack them. They shut them down like 36 to 7 in a meeting earlier this year.

Now, it's a playoffs. It's not going to be anything close to that margin of a final score. But if the Steelers, as depleted. as some of their linebacking corps is due to season-long injuries and a couple guys tore their ACLs, they're still able to get some pressure. And if they can get pressure against the depleted Browns O line and get to Baker-Mayfield a little bit, then really the only way that the Steelers are losing this game is if they're making mistakes or not converting or playing a conservative, crappy, offensive style.

And I'm not going to go after your boy again. So it's a new year, new me. I'm not going to mention his name. Yeah, the Pittsburgh Steelers have moved with that news from minus four slash four and a half all the way up to minus six, six and a half. So they are by far the biggest mover. Let me just say my thoughts are with you, Brown fans. You waited forever for this. And it just sucks.

Absolutely sucked. You just want a crack at it. You want a crack at it. You want a fair shake. Yes. You want a fair shake at my team at its health, your team at your health. Let's get at it. And it'd be one thing if it was a team like the Saints dealing with this.

I know Kamara was dealing with it. But being ravaged with COVID and their coach being there, but they get to the playoffs all the time. But for the Browns, man, it definitely stinks. I feel bad for you guys. Warren, I cannot wait to watch all these games this weekend and listen to you in house, break them down from a lines perspective later this week.

Also want to remind everybody this weekend immediately following the games on Saturday and Sunday, the Ringer NFL show is going to be going live on Saturday. You can watch Kevin Clark and Ryan Rusillo on Sunday. Kevin Clark and Nora Princeati. Going to be breaking down every playoff matchup. Make sure you subscribe to the ringer's YouTube channel. YouTube.com slash the ringer

and following at Ringer NFL on Twitter. Warren, I will talk to you next week. Sounds good, my friend. Enjoy the games.