The Ringer NFL Show - Lovie Smith Makes the 2023 Draft Fun! Plus, an Examination of the NFL Coaching Scene and More Big Takeaways from Week 18 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 10, 2023

Sheil and Ben start their conversation with some positive updates on Damar Hamlin and the Buffalo Bills' outlook heading into the playoffs. They then talk about how Lovie Smith's endgame decisions in the Texans win over the Colts have set the stage for an interesting draft this spring (3:53). Next, Sheil explains why Chargers fans should be wary of Brandon Staley's personnel strategy last Sunday, and Ben shows us why Carolina is the best current coaching destination this offseason (18:03). This leads to a debate on college coaches heading to the NFL and a discussion about the Titans' and Saints' dreary futures (31:54). They end the pod by sharing their complete playoff bracket picks (1:02:42). Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Would you bet a few thousand dollars that you could sink an eight-foot putt? What about 10 grand that you could win a drag race against a Camero with a thousand horsepower? If you bet two million dollars, could you bet it all on one football game? Maybe you wish you could, but you probably wouldn't. Gamblers is about the people who did. From the Ringer Podcast Network, listen to Gamblers Season 2 on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point Taken. I'm Shil Kapade. As always, joined by Ben Solak. We come to you every week. No Monday night football this week. We obviously did not do the pod last week with Damar Hamlin, the Damar Hamlin situation. And thankfully, since then, Ben, the good news has been trickling in day by day. The latest as we record here on Monday evening Eastern Time is that he's been transferred from Cincinnati to Buffer. was released from the hospital in Cincinnati and got to go back to Buffalo.

So I know we've talked about it and I can't remember if it was different podcasts or where we've talked about it, but you were just kind of hoping and praying, looking at Twitter, looking at feeds, hoping you get some morsel of positive news after, man, I can't believe it was only a week ago, as I say that, but only a week ago. And luckily, the last three, four days, the good news has been trickling in, thankfully. Yeah, the news that he's out of Cincinnati's heading back home. to Buffalo. The news that he set off an alarm in the ICU because he got up and started celebrating the Naeem Hines kickoff return touchdown. And like, I'm assuming old things out of things like

plugs and whatever connections. It's all just really, really, really good and encouraging. And there's a lot of reasons why that's, that's good. The vast majority of which the long list, one through 10 on the list are just like, thank God for DeMarr, thank God for the bills, thank off for T. Higgins. Thank God for everybody. Demar's family's been affected by this. but notably for our purposes as like we try to do our jobs and step forward into like, right, let's prepare for the playoffs,

let's figure out what teams are going to win, what teams are going to lose and what does this all mean. It's great news for Buffalo. Like the bills are a really, really, really good team that I think going into the season, we thought would have a great shot to make an AFC playoff run.

And one of the consequences of DeMar's injury in the days following and wondering, what's his health going to look like, what's the time they're going to look like, what information are we or not going to get? was that question of like, all right,

the league's going to make Buffalo play in the playoffs and how this is going to have a huge impact on them. And every time we get a piece of positive DeMar news, it just kind of gives you the feeling and hearing all, Josh Allen, talk about, you know, what DeMare Menn,

talk about, you know, Trudeavis White, and he's checking in on them. You get the sense that every day that passes, the bills are getting a little bit more oriented towards football, a little bit more oriented to the playoffs ahead. And that's good news for our playoffs because the bills are an incredible team.

And they're going to be a huge part of the AFC playoffs. And so as we now look to the postseason, And as much as they can, you imagine Buffalo's got their sights set on the next month. And that puts us in for some great games. Yeah, it's going to be ongoing. I mean, a life-changing event for everybody involved. It's so cool that he's in Buffalo with them now. They can stop by.

They can see him. They were FaceTiming and the reactions we saw from the bills during that game yesterday. The emotions from Josh Allen afterwards. I mean, listen, it's going to continue for a long, long time. He's not totally out of the woods. His life is going to be changed as a result of this, but to just think of where we were again a week ago at this time to where we are now. Thank goodness we've moved in a positive direction.

For this show, if you don't know, I mean, if you're just joining us for Week 18, really, where have you been all season long? But I'll explain it. We each offer three takes. We don't tell each other the takes before we offer them. And then we finish with an extra point taken. Man, I don't know where you're going with these today, Ben. And we got coaching news.

We've got, we know the playoff matchups. So you could be going in a number of different directions. You are first. What do you have for your first point tonight? Lovie Smith made the 2023 NFL draft so cool. Shout out, Lovie, man. So firstly, let's start here. As we get more critical views on football,

as we get a better understanding through, you know, models, and, you know, as we learn about team, Windows, and as we learn about rookie contract quarterbacks, as we, it just has a football consuming public, getting better perspective on how to build a team, how to build contenders. They're absolutely 100% like this was the like the Dolphins Bengals game a few years ago. This was the Jets win and knock them out of the first overall pick for Trevor Lawrence. There is an attention to tanking teams late in the season. Don't mess it up.

You've been so good. Don't win a dumb game in Week 16, Week 17. Don't knock yourself out a pole position. That's exactly what the Texans did. Lovie Smith's Texans converted on a fourth and 12 and a fourth and 20. on the final drive of the game to set up a two-point conversion against the Indianapolis Colson, beat him in what ended up being Lovie Smith's last game as the Texas head coach, which makes it even funnier because Lovie, like, there were reports that Lovie was like, you know, advocating for himself. He was like making the case from him to keep the job over the past couple weeks. So he knew the writing was on the wall.

So he's like, listen, I'm just trying to win a football game. I have no interest in the first overall pick if you're all not keeping me. So they win that game against the Colts. and in doing so, you know, there tends to be this, this view of like, well, this is a bad team building decision.

Ownership should make a call. General manager should make a call. And you can do that. Jeff Driscoll could have started this game. You know what I'm saying? Like they could have made that choice, but they didn't. And a big part of the reason why

is because football coaches and football players want to win games. They do. They really do. Like, absolutely, if you sat, Nico Collins down, Jalen Petrie down,

Obo-O-Kronko, down. John Granard, like some of the guys who are members seem like Laramie Tunsel and you're like, hey, would you have the first overall pick or the second overall pick? They pick the first overall pick, but they also want to beat the Colts. That's just what they know. Maybe they probably don't care. I mean, they might easily pick the second overall pick.

What do they care? They don't. I mean, first of all, if you're a player, you know, the less, the fewer talented players, sorry to interrupt you. You're going to your roster. That's better job security for you. But yeah, I mean, I think that that's, I agree with your take that. players and coaches don't tank.

Yeah. So I love the fact that the Texans won it. I love the fact that the Levin'I don't want it. I don't care that they lost the first overall pick. Like, oh, Cal McNair made a big mistake. I don't give a hoot about Cal McNair. I'm not on the job of analyzing Cal McNair.

So the Texans now have the second overall pick. Who has the first overall pick? You're Chicago Football Bears, baby. Your 2023 leaders in cab space, your Chicago Bears. We will not make a single move this offseason except for selling players for picks, Chicago Bears now have the first overall selection.

I said this is going to make the NFL draft a lot more fun and it will because one of two things happens here. One, the bears are open for business on the first overall pick, right? They are going to trade this thing for the kingest of King's Ransoms, right? They're going to, the Texans are positioned at two. Texans are almost certainly going to take a quarterback where they're going to spend the next three months trying to figure out who the Texans like the most, what team also likes that guy and if they want to move up with Chicago to go get him.

This is the storyline for the next four months. As an NFL draft guy, I'm very excited. Who do the Texans like? Who's the Texans head coach going to be? What sort of quarterback do they want to get? Does Indianapolis like that guy? Does Atlanta like that guy? Does Detroit like that guy?

Just say, who likes the dude? Who's going to try to move up and go get him? It's super, super fun. So either one, Ryan Poles, the Bears general manager and the Bears are going to trade the first overall pick. They're probably not going to move too far back because they still need a ton of talent. They don't have their own second round pick because the Chase is the Chase Claypool trade, which we'll get to that in a second.

Okay, they're going to move back a little bit, still get a good player, but that picks open for business. Or, and this is what you've seen people talking about already, what if they draft a quarterback to contend with Justin Fields? As a Justin Fields apologist, I find this bananas. I'm curious to hear what you think, as somebody who's a little bit less than Justin Fields camp. I went back and I looked, though, when you're trying to find examples of quarterbacks who were

selected in the first round by the same team within two years of each other, right? Fields was a pick in 2021. If the Bears were to take Bryce Young, for example, he'd be a pick in 2023. You find very few examples. Since 1980, it's the Art Schlichter John Elway, Baltimore Colts, which happened because, you know, Art was suspended for gambling on the league. And then John Elway said he refused to play for Baltimore. So that was a tenuous situation.

you have the 2012 Browns taking Brandon Whedon with the 22nd overall pick and then two years later taking Johnny Mansell with the 22nd overall pick. I don't know if you want to model your team building after that particular approach. And then you have the 2019 Cardinals who took Josh Rosen in 2018. And then I obviously came around one year later and took Kyler Murray with the first overall pick. Again, that worked out better for them. I'm still not sure that's the model you want to go after. And so it's a rare thing to see.

but given the way that this front office has behaved, I would imagine they're going to look into it. This is a very like analytics driven front office, a very like, having the longest view in the room front office, which means they're going to super prioritize as the quarterback position. They're going to be obsessed with having a rookie contract quarterback,

fields for as talented as he is, as not like the level of a passer you'd like him to be after two seasons, and as injury concerns. I absolutely 100% think they're going to look into it, which now means like, if this was Texans, at the first overall pick, we'd be like, who did the Texans? Like Bryce Young, well, Levis.

I wonder who it is. With the bears, they get way weirder. And this is the next four months of football. Once we finish the playoffs, it's all about what these bears might do first overall. I'm very excited to see it. Well, I completely agree that it makes the next three, four months so much more entertaining. I mean, you can fire off any kind of take you on about this draft. There's going to be mystery.

There's going to be intrigue. There's going to be trade rumors. I was sitting in the press box at Eagles Giants, and I had picked the – usually I just root for my picks against the spread. and then I'd pick the Colts to cover, but then I'm like, screw it. I want my pick to lose. This is going to be so much more fun that the Texans win and the Texans did win. So I agree with you there.

I don't think it's, I don't think it's bananas at all. And I'm not like down. I'm basically, I don't know on Justin Fields. I find him when he had those peaks. We talked about it on this podcast, like it was a month, six weeks, whatever it was, where the offense was legitimately good. And he was, you know, one of the five most exciting players in the NFL. His running is special.

He runs almost like no other quarterback I've ever seen. The numbers back it up. The eye test back it up, everything. Your concerns are, you know, or what you mentioned as people's concerns, are absolutely fair. You know, his development as a passer. And we can go back on forth, back and forth on this a million times. Well, he didn't have the old line. He didn't have the supporting cast.

Yes, absolutely fair. And then he also didn't look great as a passer through many stretches. So if I'm the bears, I'm absolutely looking into it. think it's bananas at all. I think, you know, you could easily make the case if you look at it that Bryce Young has, or whoever you like. I mean, is Bryce Young your favorite quarterback in this draft? I pass. Okay. It's hard. It's okay. Every single one of these quarterbacks, all the top guys, are good. Not like, wow. Not like, eh, they're all good. Which one do I like the most? Okay.

One of them. One of them is the best, and I will tell you who it is later. Okay, all right. I love Bryce. I think Bryce Young has a high ceiling. I like everything about him. There are very few. I'm not going to tell you, I've grinded the film on Bryce Young just yet, but having

watched him in college, I'm like, yeah, if I were an NFL team and I had the first pick, I would not hesitate. And then what you saw from CJ Stroud in his last game has to make you rethink probably what you thought about CJ Schroo. Stroud before he played that last game because he was incredible in that game. So I think they're both really good prospects. And so if you're the Bears, you absolutely look into it. You say, do we feel better about one of these guys having a long, sustained 10-year career for us where we don't even have to think about quarterback anymore? And we're going to be in the mix every year.

Do they give us a better chance to do that than Justin Fields? I mean, that is a hard question to answer. But that's what they have to ask themselves. And there are up, there is benefit where if you just, if you feel strongly that those guys are going to be at least as good as Justin Fields, then it makes it even more attractive because now they're on a rookie contract for longer. Your window for building around that quarterback and having those resources is even longer. So I think it's absolutely something they have to look at. I think when we're doing a pod maybe in March, I will go on record and say, this is what I would do because we're all going to have to plant our flag one way or the other.

But I think it gives you options. I mean, you could keep. both. I've always thought, you know what, if you have mature guys, like, these guys are used to competing against other people for their entire careers that can they really not handle it for a year and you see who's better? Or you can trade. I have no idea what Justin Fields would net in a trade. I think it's like an impossible question to answer right now. I think it's probably less than what people anticipate, but I could be wrong there. So you have options. People have asked like what would get more in a trade, Justin Fields, over the first overall.

pick, unequivocally the first overall pick. First overall pick. No question. No doubt. Yeah, because Fields is the injury history and then there's the money aspect of that, but he's two years old, yada, whatever. I feel Danny Hyfitz, our colleague, just looming over my shoulder, screaming in my ear, quarterback is about destination. Quarterback is about destination. It's about where you land. And this, like, this is a big thing.

It's a great point for this Bears conversation. All right, you're the Bears. You're Ryan Poles. You like Justin Fields. You're worried about the injury. You know, he's not super long as a pass. Just take a look at these guys. You watch Bryce Young, you fall in love with them. Oh, my goodness, he's incredible. I love him to death.

I want this guy on my team. I want him so, so badly. Let's draft him. Let's draft him with the first overall pick. Well, a lot of quarterbacks succeeding in the NFL is dictated by the environment in which they land. It'd be great if the good players were good and the fine players were fine and the bad players were bad. But so much of quarterbacking the NFL is about development. It's about environment.

Do you have the resources necessary? Play caller, wide receivers, offensive line to get the plane off the ground. Right? you just like Danny's whole point you wrote a wonderful piece about this is like if you just look at you take the names away and you look at the quarterbacks got drafted by bad teams those quarterbacks ended up bad and the

quarterbacks got drafted by good teams before they were on the team before they were ever selected bad team or good those quarterbacks end up good and it's all about environment. I think that argument has gone too far. Yeah no I agree I think like there's shades of gray here. I just think if you're the bears and you go all right we're taking our first overall quarterback here we go. Do you

want to put all 5 foot 10 190 pounds of Bryce Young behind Sam Mustiver, Cody Whitehaer, Braxton Jones, and Riley Reef. You want him thrown to Equanimia, St. Bown, Chase, Clay, Poole, and Dante Pettis, Velaus Jones, Jr. and then Darnell Mooney. The environment to bring a rookie in here,

you still have yet to fix the offense. And that's why, like, I struggle to think, like, oh, but get a new quarterback in here, he'll be better than Justin Fields is in this offense. There's not a good offense. That's one piece of the puzzle. Well, you do have a lot of resources, and regardless of who's playing quarterback

as you would think that would be number one on the priority list is to spend the league leading cap space on the offensive line first and then on the receivers and the past catching weapon second. So you're right. I mean, I'm not even saying he would come in right away and be better, but I would certainly be intrigued by it. And as far as, you know, environment mattering, I think that's more an argument for the guys who are like quarterbacks, you know, 11 through 26. And when you're, if you're drafting Bryce Young number one or C.J. Stroud, number one, you're expecting them to be in the borough.

Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, you know, and maybe it's a little bit down from that. That's a high expectation, I understand. But when you draft a quarterback number one, like, that's what you're expecting that player to be where they can make up for some of those deficiencies on your roster. I mean, you put Patrick Mahomes on the Bears roster right now. They're winning that division. They're probably the favorites in the NFC North, in the NFC, as far as I'm concerned. I mean, he can lift them there.

Now, that's one player that's, you know, a generational. talent and what maybe the best who will go down is the best of all time when all is said and done. I understand that. But even some of the other, I mean, I think that's how I define the special quarterbacks, the guys who can lift others up around them and make up for the deficiencies on their roster. Okay. So what's a higher percentage likely outcome? One, the quarterback, the Bears draft at first overall is that special player that

they can elevate the existing talent with, with additions, with whatever additions remain to the point where it's a NFC contending caliber offense or two, Justin Fields as he currently is now, plus a substantial investment in the offense, a more market investment in the offense, reaches that same caliber of offensive performance.

It's a good question, but it's not a one-year answer. So if you're asking me for 2023... Overall, overall, however many years you want. Yeah, I would say for like the next five to seven years, again, I'm going to give my official answer down the road to do more work on Bryce Young, but I don't think it's crazy to say it would be Brise Young. I mean, the cap space is still the same.

So what you're talking about is the resources you have to spend with that first pick, trade down, get other picks. There's no doubt that's appealing. You can really upgrade the rest of your roster. So this is going to be fun. We're going to bring up this conversation time and again. The correct answer is absolutely number two, but we won't get. We're already 20 minutes in.

Okay. I would not say that's absolutely the correct answer, but we'll talk more about it. All right. My first one, Benjamin. Chargers fans need to be seriously concerned without Brandon's daily handled that game on Sunday. I mean, Chargers knew all week. They were going to be locked into the five seed.

The scenario was very simple. A win or a Ravens loss. The Ravens played in the early window. The Ravens started Anthony Brown at quarterback. They were 11-point underdogs, which if you look at the implied odds, that means you have roughly a 15 to 20% chance to win the game.

They clearly were not going all in to win that. that game. They lose that game. The Chargers play in the late afternoon window. Oh, there's Justin Herbert. There's Keenan Allen. There's Joey Bosa. There's Derwin James. There's Mike Williams. Everybody is playing. And it looks like they dodged a bullet because Mike Williams suffered a back injury in the second quarter. Brandon Staley said today it looks like a back contusion and early indications are that he will be able to play. But I'm looking at process over results. and I am very concerned with the Chargers process, how they handled that situation, honestly how they've handled a lot of things this year, including keeping Herbert in the game

earlier this season where it's a blowout and the guy's ribs, you know, he's in severe pain. We talked about that on this podcast, the inconsistencies in some of the game management. But to this point specifically, the Chargers are our top heavy team. They had won four straight games. Herbert, Williams, these guys should not have. been playing. I know some coaches say, you know, you got to stay in a rhythm. I think that's dumb, but so be it. If that's your argument that, hey, no, we need these guys out there. We want to keep the momentum going. That's one thing. However, Staley, in explaining why he did what he did,

pointed to roster limitations for the reason why he played so many key guys. And to be fair, there's some truth to that. You cannot sit every single, you know, player who you're going to be counting on in the playoffs because you only have 48 guys. on game day. But you know what you can do? You absolutely can take care of your most important players. Look at the Giants.

Brian Dayball, they played nobody. They played three regular starters, offense and defense, and then the entire game. I think the personnel groupings, they were playing with like two tight ends the entire game because they were like, these are the guys we're going to play

and we're not going to play our wide receivers. We want to be ready for the playoffs. And so it just, if you're a Chargers fan, I mean, you're finally feeling good about this team. There was some buzz. hey, maybe they can make a little playoff run here. Now you have the unnecessary angst. We'll see about the Mike Williams injury again.

It looks like they dodged a bullet there, although we're not sure. Just to me, it doesn't speak well to the team's leadership or organization, that they weren't prepared for this contingency when they had all week to figure out what they wanted to do, how they wanted to handle it. And so now they go to Jacksonville. They're favored in that game. I like the Jaguars in that game, but maybe the Chargers win. I don't think this is a dangerous team.

I think this is a disorganized team. I don't have faith in them to put Justin Herbert in position to succeed. I'm all in on Herbert still. He is not the problem here. But I'm concerned. I'm concerned that the organization is not making decisions to put him in the best position to succeed. What number of time do you think this is of us doing something about the Chargers coaching staff on this pod? That's not a good side probably.

It's got to be like four, I think, at least. Single digits. We're still in single digits. It's just, it's just, the take is so good and exactly correct. The, we didn't have enough players, you know, to pull the starters. It's just such a dumb way of framing it. Do you have a Chase Daniel? Then pull Herbert.

Exactly. Do you have a Michael Bandi? Then pull Mike Williams. Keenan Allen. You got a DeAndre Carter? Stick him out there. That's all we need. If Matt Filer still playing in the fourth quarter, I'll get over it.

I'll be okay. I need 10 out of the game. That's what I'm looking for right now. It's just funny how we always land on the same punchline with the charges where it's like, I still love Justin. Justin's the man. Don't get me wrong. Yeah.

But how do we trust this team for the next game? How do we trust this team for the next month? How do we trust this team? So on and so forth. It's funny. I do like them against the Jaguars. I do think they're going to beat the Jaguars. This is tricky.

Jaguars have had a lot of faith in over the last stretch. Chargers have had a lot of faith in over the last stretch. And so it's a little bit of a strength and strength for me. I think I still do like the Chargers. I agree with you. Like it was maddening watching Staley take the Chargers, the most cursed of all injury cursed teams and put them in that situation with the injury-riddled season that they've had,

looking at actually finally getting to play a playoff game. Come on, man. Shout out to Daniel Popper of the Athletic who wrote an excellent column on this and had all the, you know, Keenan Allen played the whole game. Joey Bosa played the first half. Derwin James played through the middle of the third quarter. Austin Echler takes a big hit. So, I mean, these are your guys.

These are your guys that you need to do what you need to do in the playoffs. There was no reason for them to play. And furthermore, like I said, the explanation just left a bad taste in my mouth. All right, what do you have for your next point? We got several open jobs. We got Indianapolis Colts job open. Arizona Cardinals job opened on Monday. Obviously, with the Texan's job that opened previously.

Broncos opened during the season and the Carolina Panthers open during the season. Of the five, the job that I most are most. attracted to as a head coaching candidate. My phones are bringing off the hook, shield. Everybody wants me. The job that I've been most attracted to as a head coaching candidate is the Carolina Panthers. I like it. I'm okay with it. Now, Panthers' cap sheet is in a bit of an interesting position.

You go and you look at who they've got expiring for 2022 into 2023. And boy, it's worrisome. Miles Hart's Fields a restricted free agent, okay? Corey Littleton, all 370 his snaps, all right, out the door potentially. Bradley Bowesman, it was their backup center. Pat all fine got hurt. Bilsman took over. He's a free agent coming into 2023.

And then Donta Foreman, who was a nice back for them after they traded away, Christian McCaffrey. But you had good play from Jubbard. You had, you know, they had Rahim Blackshire out there. Like, they got guys. So, 2023, the cap, like, they've got just over the minimum cap space right now. Sam Donald is also an expiring quarterback or contract. It's worth noting they have to figure out,

quarterback. But other than that, like the nuts and bolts of this roster man, what it's built on is all still there. Like every, every impactful player from this defense is returning. The entire starting offensive line from weeks one through six, which was a great group and a group that improved over the course of the year, they're all returning. It looks great for 2023. In 2024, Brian Burns is a free agent. Pat Elfline's a free agent. Markis Haynes is a free agent. Yertreroos is a free agent. Jack Thompson's a free agent. Frankie Louvo is a free agent. Damien Wilson's a free agent, Derek Brown's in his fifth year option. So it gets a little bit more dicey after that.

But for this upcoming year and into those upcoming seasons where they don't have a ton of money tidings, it's not like they have huge contracts on like star quarterbacks, they're going to have to navigate around. It's the DJ Moore contract and like J.C. Horn's fifth year option. That's like the main stuff they've got to worry about in terms of big deals. They're going to be able to sign Brian Burns. They're going to be able to sign Derek Brown. They're able to keep most of the tenants, the cores in place.

2023 draft. They have their own first round pick. they have two twos and two fours. They should have two threes because of the Christian McAfree, but they traded their third away to go get Matt Corral last year. I don't want to talk about that. I'm not in love with that position that they put themselves in. Where we land is the team that has solid capital moving forward.

They have a great defensive core. And offensively, there was good momentum coming to the end of this season. This offensive line is solid across the board. DJ Moore is a strong weapon. Tommy Tremblin and Ian Thomas, They emerge to have a nice little two tight end package. Both those guys are under contract for the next two years. The building blocks are here.

It needs a punch. It needs some juice. It needs some star power to it. And if you can attract, I think, a really strong offensive coaching name, Shane Steichen, Ben Johnson, who's a Carolina native, right? They've talked about interviewing Frank Reich, who Frank Reich's not as punchy because he was obviously with the Colts, but I still think it would be a huge boost to the team from the jump. And you can get a quarterback connected to him.

That's the big one. You really can, if you can spark this offense in year one with a good head coach play caller quarterback combo, this defense is playoff ready. And I think that the Panthers can immediately step into, like competing in the NFC South, especially if Tom Brady leaves, step in it, playing a playoff game at home. You can also go the other direction.

Interview yourself of Rahim Morris and Adjiro Eviro, a D'Amico Rines. They're interviewing Steve Wilkes. So we'll talk about that in a second. You can make this defense a top five defense, a top three defense. You could win nine games on the back of this defense. They won seven this year in large part

because the performance they got out of this defense when it's healthy. You still have to solve your play caller quarterback situation, but at least gives you a wider range of guys you can look for. Carolina, I think, could pretty quickly turn it around and get proof of concept in year one. And if they do, if you walk in as a young head coach and kind of give this team a jolt,

Dave Tepper will open the checkbook. That's the other thing that I really like about this job is they have aggressive ownership. I like owners who spend money. I like owners who want to go get guys. I like owners who let me get aggressive. I don't, you know, if I'm trying to keep the job, if I'm trying to like sit on a job for five years and make money,

then give me the Cardinals because they're never going to fire anybody for whatever reason. But if I'm trying to compete, if I'm trying to really build a contender and turn this thing around, Indies got solid players, but they're a little bit older. You know, Denver's obviously got a great defense, but I don't want to hitch my wagon to Russ. The Carolina Panthers of the current five jobs that are open or the job that if I were a head coaching candidate

and I had an offer from all five, which I do, this would be the job that I would take. I hadn't thought about this before the podcast. So now I'm looking at all five and wondering if I agree. I think that I do, although I'm not sure about, I mean, TEPA is a complete unknown as an owner, but you're right. He will certainly pay the head coach. And if I'm the head coach and candidate, then, yeah, that would be nice.

I'm team CTC, cash them check. So you want the owner who's going to pay up for you. I think if you took the premium positions and we can argue about what's a premium position, but let's say left tackle, corner, edge, wide receipt. I mean, these are positions that get paid the most in the NFL other than quarterback. And you looked at the under, let's say, 30, under 28 talent. I mean, they've got to be there with almost any team in the NFL. They drafted Equino at left tackle last year.

They've got J.C. Horn a number one corner. I mean, DJ Moore, if he ever gets a quarterback, will put up ridiculous numbers. there, Brian Burns. We've talked about, and then we didn't even mention Derek Brown, who's a detackle. But yeah, they have young talent there. I mean, we kind of glossed over quarterback,

and that is obviously the biggest question. They could go one of two routes there, whether they just add kind of the competent, high-floor starter, which they could do, or you got the ninth pick. We're just talking about the bears. I mean, if we're thinking about the bears trading down or some type of trade down there

in the top 10, this is a spot. where Carolina could say we've got some extra picks from that McCaffrey deal. We've got ninth overall. Let's go get our quarterback. And then, like, if you have someone you really believe in, then you could be a really interesting team. But yeah, I agree. They are a team early on that could turn it around very quickly. That division's not going to be good next year anyway.

So we'll see what they do there. But yeah, I would agree with that. Let me do this for you right now. Okay. Head coach Ben Johnson, quarterback Jared Goff. stick with me. Right, right, write it out. That offensive line.

Tony Pollard in the backfield. DJ Moore and T. Higgins, which like, you know, I don't think T's making it. But T. Higgins, you know, that defense, that offense? I'd take the Panthers to win the South if you get that sort of a construction. To me, that's very reasonable. To me, that's very achievable. Yeah, I mean, you could even, even without the,

If you just told me blind right now, pick a team from the NFC South, you could make a strong case just to take the bad there. That's a good point, actually. Yeah, it's kind of an empty argument. Yeah, you don't even need to add all those other guys. But no, I think it's a good job. I mean, looking at the other ones really quick, the Broncos is probably not you're going to get, you know, paid a lot.

And I think the Broncos have to hire the best coach, not the Russell Wilson fixer, because who knows if that's even going to be possible, the Arizona Cardinals, that one would intrigue me a little bit because they got rid of Cliff Kingsbury and Steve Kime. And so if you are a coach who says, hey, I want personnel power or I want to bring in my own GM, you have the opportunity to do that there. And then you have to figure out whether you think Kyler Murray can play or not. The Colts, I don't really like the Colts roster pretty much at all. But they have the fourth overall pick.

And so you're in position there where, you know, moving up is going to be easier for a quarterback or staying put for a quarterback than other teams. And then the Texans, I mean, listen, they've been. been a train wreck organization all the way through. I don't know that I would enjoy working for the Houston Texans, but they do have the number two overall pick. So you're guaranteed to get one of those top two quarterbacks. So I like it. I like a Charlotte, too. I mean, that seems like a nice, you know, plant some roots in Charlotte with the family. I think people would like it there. All right. I like it. All right, Ben, I'm going to disagree with you on this one. I know

a segment of our audience likes when I disagree. My take is that you are wrong. about your argument that NFL teams should never hire a coach from college. Great. I'm totally correct. This is awesome. It's easy win. I texted you late on this. I didn't know if you saw the text or not from this one. So Ben wrote a good column. I've had this take of the hopper for months. We're chilling. I'm good. Yeah. I actually think we mentioned this in like week three of the season. We're like, we'll come back to it. So I was like, oh, all right, this will be a good time to come back to it. Ben wrote a column on the ringer, did a good job making his argument. I think he's wrong.

Now, I don't want to speak for you. So why don't you give us, like, the brief, you know, the key points to why you're making this argument if you can. Again, sorry, a few more for this about why team should never hire a coach from college. It's very fun to because a lot of the framework is inspired by you and by the column that you write every year, which is basically your open letter to NFL owners like, hey, you're going to hire a head coach. Coming on Wednesday on the ringer.com. Wow. Look at all this cross-promotion.

Right. And in that article, you kind of say, like, hey, here are some guardrails. Do what you want between the guardrails, but don't leave the guardrails. And I think an additional guardrail that would be useful to you in your article would be just stop trying to hire from college into the NFL. Shefter put this tweet out, jumping from college to NFL head coach since 2000. Urban Meyer, Matt Rule, Cliff Kingsbury, Bill O'Brien, Chip Kelly, Doug Morone, Gratiano, Jim Harbaugh, Bobby Petrino, Nick Saban, Steve Sparier, and Butch Davis. Of those 11, 12, 11, names I just listed, there are two with a winning record. as NFL coaches.

Bill O'Brien went 52 and 48. Chip Kelly does not have a winning record. Shepter hasn't listed as a winning record because he only has his Eagles games for whatever reason. He then coached the season with the Niners and was not as good. And then finally, Jim Harbaugh, who is obviously incredible, right? Like Jim Harbaugh, 44, 19, and 1. He's 5 and 3 in the playoffs.

He played in a Super Bowl. However, the reason that Harbaugh stands out as an outlier, another guy that Shepter doesn't have on this list but was hired from a college program to be an NFL head coach in the 2000s, was Pete Carroll. The reason that guys like Carol and Harbaugh are outliers is because when they were in their formative years, when they were coming up in the world of football, they were doing it in the NFL Crucible.

They were doing it in the NFL furnace. Harbaugh was a quarterback in the NFL for over a decade. His first job was quarterback's coach of the Oakland Raiders. He spent, I want to say it's 16 years in the NFL before heading back to college to be the head coach of Pacific. Not Pacific. That's Pete Carroll, being the head coach of San Diego. Carol spent about a decade coaching at the college level.

He was at Pacific. He was at North Carolina State, so on and so forth. But then spent 17 years coaching the NFL, defensive back, secondary, defensive coordinator, head coach twice. This is where, like, you learn how to speak the language. You learn how to work in the NFL culture. You learn the NFL pace. You know, this is how you treat grown men.

This is how you handle free agency. This is how you handle the politics of the NFL. That, that growth. process, to me, excludes Harbon Carroll who may consider like real college coaches. When you look at guys who were like came up in college, Cliff Kingsbury, Urban Meyer, Matt Rule had one year, a cup of coffee in the college. Cliff had three years, right, on the Patriot's practice squad. They don't, when they come into the NFL, they just start making easy mistakes. Think about the easy chip mistakes in the way that he lost the locker room.

The easy Urban Meyer mistakes, the way he lost the locker. And the Cliff Kingsbury mistakes where it took him like three years to move Deontra Hopkins across the formation. We think that college and NFL are linked because NFL players come from college. But it's not that strong of a connection. That's just the best place to go get NFLers. It's not like the sports are similar enough that you can say, all right, this guy understands how to make a college program work. He understands how to make an NFL program work.

Those skills, those techniques, those strategies, they're one-to-one. They really aren't. Different roster sizes, different field sizes, different rules for recruiting, different free agency processes. Like, NIL is the first time that a college player could get paid. College coaches are just now dealing with it. You know, but you know what I mean. Right.

So I just, the thing is, I don't think that the college environment has the demands on a head coach that are analogous enough, similar enough to the NFL demands, that I as an owner could look at a college coach's success and say, here's why he was successful and here's how it'll map to the NFL. I just think it's too far of a bridge to cross. So if I'm an NFL owner and I'm trying to figure out how do I take this large field of candidates, all these incredible coaches in the world and winnow it down to the guys that want to interview and really commit to, I'm not stepping into college. I just don't think they map onto each other enough that I can decipher what would make a really good NFL coach out of some of the college applicants.

All right. There are definitely differences. I will not deny that. A coach who has spent his life in college and then has to coach in the NFL, there's going to be an adjustment period. There are going to be things he needs to learn. However, the NFL has, like, created this myth that, like, they've identified the 30 best, 32 best football coaches in the world. And it's not even close to the case.

I mean, there's so much at play here, politics, race, relationships, you name it. I mean, you look at the assistant coaches. Like, these are not the best assistant coaches, the best position coaches in the world. There are great coaches at the college level. There are great coaches at the high school level. It is about finding someone who has great leadership skills, who can connect with players, believes in relationships, who can assemble a good staff. Like, those things easily could theoretically come from a college coach as much as an NFL coach. I mean, I could go and name Nathaniel Hackett.

Wow, NFL over a decade. The guy is a complete disaster. Joe Judge, Matt Patricia. I mean, we can name a bunch of bad coaches. The reason Pete Carroll, two of those three guys are Belichick assistants, by the way, which you say in your article, to hire. Well, yeah, there's a bad thing

arguments over here. No, you're saying you're, I'm arguing against your thing like hire they, they were in the NFL. I mean,

they were NFL people and they stunk. So yeah, you shouldn't hire them. College is one of the guard rails. No Belichick assistance is another

guard rail. I'm not advocating hiring Belichick assistants. But there are like bad coaches can come from anywhere. Good coaches can come

from anywhere. Like that sample is, I mean, that's 11 coaches over a span of 22 years. It's too small of a sample

to draw any conclusions. And we can say like, all right, Jim Harbaugh, like Cliff Kingsbury played in the NFL for what. He spent four or five years. He wasn't, you know, starting games, but he was in the culture, whatever that means, in the environment, knew how the NFL operates, knows how a game plan is put together. Cliff Kingsbury wasn't a bad coach because he came from college. He was a bad college coach. They put it, the cartels put on the press release. This guy was friends with Sean McVeigh. I mean, that was a bad process from the beginning. To me, that didn't have anything to do with, you know, him being in college, if anything, I mean, his relationships other than Kyler with players

seems to be like, like, fine. That's not why he failed. So coaches fail for any number of different reasons, but coaches who coached in the NFL all the time fail, coaches who coached in college all the time fail. A listener or a reader, Trey counter responded about just that the numbers between college and the NFL and pointed out that since 2010, college coaches have a four-six- winning percentage in the NFL first time coaches, and coaches from the NFL have a 473 winning percentage. Like, it's almost exactly the same. So I would not put that bucket that I'm not going to look there.

Like, there could be. I mean, come on, if Nick Saban came into the NFL right now and you found him a quarterback, you're telling me he would not succeed in the NFL. Nick Saban is a, it didn't work out in Miami. They didn't find the quarterback. He goes back to college. But, you know, if you're a great coach and you can adjust and you understand, I agree with you.

You need to understand that it's different. Urban Meyer was going to be a disaster regardless. We all saw that. Anybody who approaches the job that way and put such little effort into doing anything right is going to be a disaster. But to me, I think you're painting with a – what was this? Too broad a brush, is that to say?

Okay, yeah. If Nick Sabin came to the NFL, I think he'd figure it out, yeah. But also, that's pie in the sky. Like, yeah, also if Albert Einstein became an NFL coach, I think eventually he'd figure it out. but we can't hire Nick Saban. We can't hire Albright-Sign. When you're getting a college coach,

you are inherently getting a tier two to tier three college coach. You're not getting a tier one college coach. He's not leaving, right? So you're running into that issue. I don't know if I agree with that. I mean, Jim Harbaugh is like about, Jim Harbaugh is dying to leave. I mean, that's evident.

Jim Harba is getting hit with NCAA sanctions. Well, no, I mean, he even last year, it sounded pretty obvious that he wanted to come back to the NFL. I think they're absolutely. It's because Jim Harbaugh's an NFL or. It's because he's not a college guy. The thing is, I don't think only hiring from NFL circles prevents you from making a bad hire. I just think when you look at the history of good hires over the last 10 years,

you don't find guys who are college dudes. You find guys who are NFLers. There's 10,000 ways to get it wrong. But I don't look at the college field and see this influx of like evolution and disruption and innovation they were talking about. You said like, you know, the NFL's created this like hard outer shell. They've created this insular group, this boys club. where all the good coaches come in the NFL,

why can't they reach out to college? That's what Cliff was supposed to be. Cliff was supposed to be innovator. Bring the air raid. Never got close. But he didn't do that in college. He couldn't do that with Patrick Mahomes in college. I mean, that was a flaw.

And you're moving the goalposts on what counts as a college coach and what counts as an NFL coach. Like Pete Carroll became a great coach at USC and is now a Hall of Fame NFL coach. He's taking his team to the playoffs, what, 10 of 13 years? So like what counts more? I mean, he runs. I bet if he's, You talk to players who played for the Seahawks, they would be like, yeah, this sort of feels like a more college-y program.

Like, he has approaches to his job that are really more college-y. You talk your favorite team, the Eagles, you know, you pointed out a million times on Philly Special. They're running a college-y offense all season long, and it's a top-five offense. So I just think there's more, you know, it depends on your personnel, all these things, your program. But I would not rule out those possibilities is all the time. The trickle up of college scheme influences a whole separate. thing. That to me is a completely different conversation. Because when you bring up Pete, like Pete's the perfect example where this is not about scheme.

This is about culture. This is about like the business aspect. This is about how you treat the men. This is about how you handle the locker room. It's about the way you talk to guys. Right. Like it's just I don't see college coaches, guys who really cut their teeth, spent all of their time learning how college programs working, worked, getting up to the NFL level and being able to extrapolate. I like, I just think it goes back to my overall point. I think that you think that college and NFL are more connected than they are. I don't think that connected.

They're connected because NFL players come from college players, but in terms of how the programs are run, in terms of the day-to-five, how you spend your hours, what you spend them on, and how you behave when you do it, it's different. I think it's worlds different. And Pete can do it and Harbaugh can do it because they lived in it.

Like you said, oh, Cliff was there for five years. Cliff was there for three years, and then he spent the next three years with the Calgary Bombers and the Winnipeg, Jets. He's going to the C's missing amount of time in the CFL. He was always a college guy. That's where he was successful. That's where he learned how to make it work. So to me, it's a culture thing. It's a business thing. It's a community thing. It's a relationship thing where you either speak NFL or you don't. And that's annoying. That's bad

because it enforces the, you know, the hard shell, enforces the boys club. But if I'm an owner, to me, it's reality. I need a guy who's going to step in and immediately understand how to run NFL locker and treat NFL players. I don't want to mess around with anybody. I agree with that, but there are NFL coaches who don't know how to do that. Matt Patricia's players were literally drinking mimosa's on the last meeting of the year because they didn't have to see his face again until the summer. And that's not going to. So you can be a college.

Don't tell me no college coach knows how to build relationships with players. I mean, that's ridiculous. Yes, there are power hungry, ridiculous, my way or the highway, college coaches. There are those coaches in the NFL too. They're like Pete Carroll knew how to do that at USC. Pete Carroll then knew how to do that in the NFL. And so I just think it's a case-by-case thing. I hate the we know how the NFL speaks.

There's nothing that grinds my gears more than that. Oh, we know how the NFL speaks. Like you didn't make it. Listen, Mr. NFL coach, GM, scout, whatever. You didn't make it there because you're the best and the brightest. Like you, we both had conversations with NFL coaches and GMs. And more often than not, I'm thinking, how did that guy get there, not, oh my gosh, that guy's so brilliant. He just worked his way up and they found this

amazing difference maker. So that is my point. All right. So it's good. We disagree. You are, you are very niftily positing me as a defender of Matt Patricia, which I would like to make a very clear I am not. Every single counterargument starts with, well, Matt Patricia did this and George did that. Though I would not hire those guys either on the premise that they're knuckleheads on. I don't want him in the building. Exactly. Don't hire knuckleheads. That's our role. All right. what is your third point? Okay. I now realize if we were going to argue this much about this one,

then maybe I should have picked a different third one, because this is one that I know we disagree on, but I feel like rehashing it. The Titans are a mess. The Titans are, the Titans fired this day on Black Monday, which has been like a relatively quieter Black Monday. They fired offensive coordinator Todd Downing, offensive line coach Keith Carter,

secondary coach Anthony Midget, and offensive skills assistant Eric Frazier. Meanwhile, Jim Schwartz, senior defensive assistant, who's been a huge part of their defensive improvement, right? They lost team P's. They brought Schwartz in, promoted Shane Bowen, and they've had much better defensive performance with Schwartz kind of there, influencing the defense.

He is interviewing for the Cleveland Brown's D.C. job, and potential to get that job, potentially interview for other D.C. jobs. They might have Shane Schwartz, Jim Schwartz, excuse me, leave the building as well. So, to review, fired the general manager midseason, gave control of the roster to the head coach.

Since we last chatted, by the way, the head coach benched the rookie starter in favor of Josh Dobbs, who was not in the building a month. What? What are you talking about? Did you watch Malik Willis play? He was not ready to play in those games?

Okay. Josh Dobbs was on the steel, no, Browns? Where was he? Broncos. I don't remember. He was somewhere else a month ago. Like, even if that's justifiable,

because Willis isn't ready to play. It's not good process to have that guy playing a must-win game. That's an issue. That's bad, right? What are you talking about? I could easily make the case that it was an incredible coaching job that a guy who has never played football in an NFL game in 17 days came in and played like at, you know, low-level starter type games for you.

It was like, yeah, if you put like the 32 worst quarter, like was he worse than like Baker-Mef? were those starts worse than like Baker Mayfield this year? Yeah, but Baker's not a low-level starter either. Baker's bad. Okay, well, there's 32. He was starting. So technically somebody has to be a low-level starter there.

I mean, okay, give me a break. So what is your argument that if they kept John Robinson that they would have gone to the playoffs or something, give me a break. They were already screwed up. Not so much about John Robinson now. It's about like kind of these Black Monday kind of decisions and where we're at.

In benching league goals for Josh Dobbs, wisdom of the decision aside, they pretty much very clearly said, hey, like, we are not interested in developing this guy at all. That's not a thing that we care about. They're calling read option runs for Josh Dobbs that they refuse to call for Malik Willis, which I find hilarious and very interesting,

actively sabotaging the third round rookie. So now you have the departure of multiple guys in the offensive coaching staff, and then also a member of the defensive coaching staff. The secondary coach, who, by the way, like, secondary played pretty well. So, okay, what's going on? Now, you have to remember, you have Ryan Tannahill and Derek Henry as your offensive centerpieces,

both of whom are eminently tradable this offseason. I don't think it'll happen because they don't seem interested in the existing plan that they had for Ryan Tannhill's succession, which was Malik Willis, right? They're not investing in that at all, right? They're bringing in Josh Dobbs instead. So what you're looking at now, potentially, is a team that has to bring in a new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith ain't coming back, replace Jim Schwartz. defensively. Hope that Shane Bowen can keep things

going. Pay David Long and then I'm assuming either A, recommit to Ryan Tannahill and Derek Henry with extensions because it only extended after the 2023 season. You extend them, you create more money this year, and then pour a ton of money into your Jeffrey

Simmons contract, your Nico Otter contract, your David Long contract, sign players of free agency, and go all in on this group, or trade Derek Henry and Ryan Tannehill and start a massive rebuild. All of this coming off of firing multiple assistance, which by the way, like, this is

eerily similar to how Mike Malarkey ended. When Robinson was struggling with malarkey, like five years ago, and they were trying to make Malarkey fire assistance, and he didn't. And so they ousted Malarkey after extending, after promising that he would retain after a playoff appearance, they got rid of him and then brought in a new

coaching staff, and that went very well for them. But the Titans are now in, like, total zero. You've have no idea where this arrow is pointing. They need a new general manager, new offensive coordinator, fill out a coaching staff, and figure out whether or not they want to commit to their quarterback and they're running back long term. So the Titans, like, to see Todd Downing get fired is to me an indication that the Titans feel like they are absolutely zero. They are

lost in the ocean. They are lost in the sauce, which means that this pendulum is going to swing one of two ways very aggressively. They're either going to super commit hard all in, or they're going to go and then completely blow it up and rebuild. If I had to guess, I'd say, because Braebel's the one calling the shots and he's a head coach, they're going to go super aggressive. They're going to go all in. And I don't know what that's going to look like given the state of the current roster. So Titans firing on Black Monday to me indicates that they're at a point of desperation where they're realizing they're not the AFC contender that they hopes to be,

not the AFC contender that their playoff appearances portended them to be. And they got to figure out which direction they want to swing. Yeah, I mean, I don't know that we disagree as much as maybe you think we do because I don't think this was avoidable regard. Like if they didn't fire John Robinson and John Robinson was the GM, I think we would have seen the exact same outcome here with the coaching staff. I mean, unless you're in the, you know, some of the exceptions are the teams where the ownership and the GM tell the coach who to hire for his staff. I mean, most teams, the coach is in charge of hiring his staff.

He can take input from other people in the building, but he's got to have final say on that. And certainly, Vrable has enough juice to do that. So I don't know that I would jump to conclusions with the staff. Like, I don't know what those guys were doing behind the scenes. Vrable is watching them week in and week out and deciding whether they're performing their jobs to the level that he wants them to perform to. And if they're not, then he has to move on. And so that is what he did there. So I do agree that they are in a tough spot. They're in a weird spot. I don't really see a way like out of it here for them. That's just because they built for

this run. They had some very good teams for multiple years. They got all the way to the AFC championship, right, the one a year with Ryan Tannahill as their quarterback, which again is a very good coaching job. I mean, they almost beat the Jaguars to get into the playoffs with Josh Dob. They were four points away from beating the Jaguars and getting into the playoffs with Josh Dobbs as their quarterback. So I was actually watching that game going, Ravel's doing it again. Look at this. The Jaguars have gotten the ball once in the entire first quarter. They're mucking up this game. This is ugly. They're going to have a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. And, Malik Willis, I mean, he's a third round pick.

Like just most of the, and I don't have like a strong opinion one way or the other on Malik Willis. I hope he has a great career. But when you draft a quarterback in the third round, the expectation is pretty much never that this guy is going to be your future starter. If he surprises you like a Russell Wilson or a Dak Prescott, then that's great. But those guys are the exceptions. Like you almost never are able to find your seven-year starter in the third round. So that doesn't bother me as much. If they figured the rookie, you know, he's swimming here.

we can't really count on him. We've tried different things. They haven't worked. Let's just roll the dice with Job Stabs. I have no issue with that decision. I love Brable as much as the next guy. I really do. Brable's awesome.

He's so much fun. I love the way he works. I like the culture. It's all great. One, the guy who got the Titans close to beating the Jaguars with Josh Jobs on offense was Todd Downing. He was fired. He's the offensive coordinator.

Brable is not an offensive coach. So let's like, we got to remember. Like, it can't be that every good thing that happens to the Titans football team on Sunday from 1 o'clock to 4 o'clock is Brable. Well, their defense was absolutely keeping them in the game. It was. It was. It was. It was. I'm saying like, you're bringing up like, oh, Josh Jobs. Like, wow, look, they're keeping it alive with Josh Dobbs. Josh Dobbs looks like a low-ed starter. Well, that is the head coach's decision to start Josh Dobbs over Malik Willis. Yeah, but like.

The scheming. I hear what you're saying. Putting him in position. Yeah, that's fair. We're getting to a point, in my opinion, in Vrable myth-making. where like every time of the tight like the Titans play extremely close games. They're super tough. They always hang around in games. It's incredible. What a coach.

Unbelievable Sunday coach. They lost six straight games and then lost the seventh to lose the division. The end of the season, oh and seven. We don't get to fire the secondary coach and go, because Vrable's so good at this. That happened.

He lost seven games in a row. He gave way the division that was in the bag. The Colts, Texans, and Jaguars were all multiple games below 500. And he lost the division. So we got to like, A, remember that. And then B, outside of Sunday from 1 o'clock to 4 o'clock, the Titans are not good.

This is not going well. They had a power struggle in the team. They have multiple coaches fired. Like, Brable's really good Sunday from 1 to 4. I absolutely agree. The other days of the week have got me mightily concerned about the direction of the Titans. And I can't just wave that away by being like,

oh, they're so tough against the bills. That's nice. But like, there's more days to the week. And I can't so easily ignore. them. We'll see. We'll see how this offseason goes. I mean, I could easily in May be saying, you were right about this. If they make some Bill O'Brienish personnel moves, which I know is your fear, then I will move to that side with you. I just look at the roster this year, and I don't look at it as like, wow, that team underachieved. I look at it, like, how in the world was that

team like one possession away from making the playoffs? I mean, they had more guys on IR than any other team in the NFL. Again, they're starting Josh Dobbs to end the season. Like, that team is not supposed to do anything. So we'll see. We'll see how he replaces his coaching staff and what they do in the offseason. All right. Too much arguing on this pod. I should have done, I should have done make fun of the saints. That's what the people like. It wipes me out, man. I get tired. My voice thirsty. I start thinking like I'll be out of one in cloud. I should have said this to Sheel. Anyway, do you see the Dennis Allen quote this week? No, what was it? Dennis Allen said, you know, we're seven and 10. We obviously didn't end the way we got to end the season, but we think we're close.

Oh my God. Guys, you got to stop doing this. Let's just do that. I'm just going to make that mind. Let's finish on that because my other one I actually wanted to save and I didn't want to do it yet. So let's just do it. Wait, what is it? Tease it. Give me a little teaser. Well, it's a, it's a, you have written about this too. It's a little what I think is going to happen with Derek Carr. So I'm going to save that. Putterner. Because those rumors are going to heat up. Let's save that. Oh, I like that little tease for next week. Yeah. So Dennis Allen, the reports, I think was Nick Underhill from Nola Football said that the indications are that Dennis Allen is going to keep his job. And. And, yeah, what did Dennis Allen said, he feels like they're not that far away, right? Yeah. I'll try to find the exact quote while you're going. I wasn't preface, but I'll find it. Yeah, I mean, I didn't rep anything for this.

But when I saw it, he's just, yeah, they're, I mean, they are a delusional franchise. Like, they had this wonderful Peyton and Breeze era where it was go all in, go all in, which I was like, yeah, go ahead. I like it. When you have the coach and the quarterback, go all in, make wild decisions that you're going to have to pay for three years from now. I'm of the mind. Like, yeah, I'm fine with that.

But when you don't have those guys and you have what was probably the most mediocre team, is mediocre being like generous maybe, I don't know, mediocre to below average team in the NFL. I mean, you have very little going for you if you are the New Orleans Saints. You're going to have a competitive defense, yes, because Dennis Allen, I believe, is a very good defensive coach. I love the aggressive way that they play. I think they can put together great game playing. but that offense is so, so, so far away from being a, whatever you want to call it, top, top six, top eight, top ten offense, and then being an actual Super Bowl contender

with the limited resources they have, by the way, after having traded away their first round pick, that it just makes you wonder what are they going to do this offseason and talk about a team that's just digging deeper and deeper and deeper and going all in for that one year, they absolutely fit that definition. So yeah, I have no faith in them making smart decisions this office. And it's irritating because guess what? They drafted really well. They did it again, right?

Like Trevor Petting, nonwithstanding. He played like seven snaps this year. He's getting list Frank surgery. He couldn't stop getting into fights during training camp like that. It was a mess. Chris Alave, baby. Young man can play. Rashid Shaheed.

I'm learning how to say his name now because young man can play. Alante Taylor. third round rookie at corner. Legit. He came with Paulson Adiebaud, who's excellent. Marshawn Lattimore, who's on the second contract now, but excellent. All of them drafted, all of them at corner. Pete Werner, stepping in as the second linebacker, another draft, another developed next to

to Mario Davis. That's great. So I understand why and how they are diluting themselves into this. I totally get it because Mickey Loomis is sitting in his office looking at scrolling through his pro football reference draft history and then scroll through the poll football reference draft history of every other general manager and going, heck yeah, brother. I'm way better than everybody else is. And he's got

a case when it comes to those three. Do you think they actually do that? They actually, I know that they do that. Because if you can, you can find a GM to talk a little junk on other GMs if you get them in the right setting. I'll just say that. Well, here's, think about it this way. When you do the evaluation process, invariably, there's like

30%, 35% of the guys that are slated to go round one, first three rounds, first three rounds, that you just don't like it all. You just don't take them, right? And so then if there are teams that regularly they take those guys, you probably start just noticing that. It's like, oh, man, like Dave Gettleman just took another one of

our don't fly list. That's pretty interesting, isn't it? It's pretty curious, right? You just do that and that's just natural. So I get it. I get it. I get it. I get it. I promise. I promise I get it. With that said, Alvin Camara is a $16 million man.

Tason Hill is a $14 million man. Michael Thomas is a $14 million man, though they just reworked his contract. Yeah, so he's probably going to be able to be released. It's very funny because of the rework right now, it looks like his 2024 cap figure is like $60 million, which I love, but he's going to be released.

Ryan Ramchick is a $21 million man. Andrews P. is an $18 million man. Eric McCoy is a $12 million man. Cameron Jordan is a $25 million man. DeMario Davis is a $14 million man. Marshall and Latimore is a $22.5 million man. You have been robbing Peter to pay Paul for so long. They have void years on James Winston.

On Deonté Hardy, on Michael Thomas, on Andrews Pete, on James Hurst, four void years on David on Yamada, on Marcus Davenport, on Tano Passineau, on Bradley Robey. They got void years on Tyrant Matthew, Marcus May. They got void years on everybody. You can't.

You can't keep doing this while you don't have the quarterback because it precludes you from paying for the guy, which means you have to draft him. And you can't draft him because since you're drafting so well, you're not only winning three games. You're winning seven games

because you're playing Andy Dalton. You're not only winning three games. You're winning seven games. So you're never going to be in a position to draft him and you're never going to be in a position to pay for him on the free agent market. So you're going to trade for, are you going to wait for the next Matthew Stafford trade?

Is that the plan? That's not a plan. And that's the problem is they are, they used to be right up the mediocre roster. It's not so much that they're a mediocre roster. It's that they are a mediocre draft slot. And they're going to be a mediocre draft slot every single year until they sell the farm to move up

or they get lucky where the guy becomes available. And that's just not a winning formula. You have to pay so much money and keep hoping that Cam Jordan is as good as he's been at 35 years old. DeMario Davis at 33 years old. Marshall and Latimore, he gets older. Your offensive lines, they get older. It's just not, you're trying to stave off all the time. It's just not going to work.

It's not going to work. Yeah, I like a lot of it. I mean, when you were reading off those players, I'm like, oh, I like him. I like him. I like him. The offensive line is good. You're right. They have Olave, but, I mean, you have no solution at quarterback.

You don't have your first round pick, and you're probably going to make some reckless decisions this offseason to add to your roster and try to win in 2023 when you're really not going to win. So I don't know what their plan really is. If they find out, you know what? Three teams underneath the cap floor right now, underneath the cap ceiling right now in 2024.

Not 20223, 20204 are right now in the red. Los Angeles Rams, who won the Super Bowl, the Cleveland Browns, who made one of the most inexcusable offseason moves this year in the Deshawn Watson trade

and substance contract. and the New Orleans Saints, who, unlike the Los Angeles Rams, did not win the Super Bowl, and unlike the Cleveland Browns, who were erroneous in their belief, but believed that they had a massive quarterback deal. They had a franchise quarterback, right?

You go and you look at the other 2024 guys, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, like San Francisco 49ers, all those guys are low in the list. They've paid for quarterbacks. The Saints haven't done, haven't paid for a single quarterback. They have no quarterback on the roster in 2024,

because James is one year left than void years and Andy Dullin's a free agent. and they have the least caps face of any team in the league. That's not real. You can't do that. Yeah. There's no path. There's no path for them to make a serious leap in 20, 23,

unless you know, you believe the Tom Brady, Sean Payton rumors. And hey, if that happens, then we will, of course, talk about. All right, let's finish with our extra point taken. I think we're going to make some playoff predictions, right? We have to go on the record here with what we think is going to happen over the next month. Right. Which, why did we sign up to do this before we know the Tua health and the Lamar health situation? Whose idea was that?

I think we can assume for our, well, we can, you know, you can have contingencies. I think for our purposes, let's assume that Tua is not going to play in this game. And Lamar, I don't know that John Harbaugh knows. I don't know that Eric DeCostin knows. I don't know that Lamar Jackson knows if he's going to play. So if you want to do a couple of contingencies there, I'm perfectly fine with that. How should we do it? Should we just start with the NFC or AFC and just?

go round by round and knock it out until we get to go. Let's do NFC up to the winner of the conference championship. Okay. And then we'll do AFC up to the conference championship. And then we'll pick the conference championship. I will note that in terms of like models and betting markets, the markets are quite convinced Tua's not playing. They're a little bit shakier on the Ravens.

Like they're like four or five points away from where the line would be if two is playing. So they've seen like Vegas seems to think Tua is not going to play. Lamar, it's a little bit closer. And so that's that's the current projections as of now. Okay, you write down your own. I'll write down my own so we don't get confused here. Seahawks, 49ers? Nineers. All right, that's an easy one. Giants Vikings, who do you got? Giants. I got the Giants too. The Giants are going back to Lincoln Financial Field.

Cowboys Box. Who do you got? Cowboys. Me too. All right. So then we have the second round, Eagles, Giants at the Link. What do you got? Eagles. too. Man, this is, I hope we're going to have some different. We will be different in the FACC, I promise you. 40-9ers, Cowboys. Who do you got? Miners. Me too. And then Eagles Niners at the link, Benjamin Solac, you Eagles fan with the Link crowd going nuts. I've heard what you're saying on various podcasts. You got to go with your official prediction. Who do you have Eagles, Niners? Niners. Okay. I've got the Eagles. I think the Eagles are going to, if they're

at home. It's going to be such a good game if we get it. It's going to be the best game of the year if we get it, man. Yeah. All right. So there you go. So Ben's got Niners. I've got Eagles coming out of the NFC. Let's go over to the AFC. Bills, as we mentioned, are big favorites, double-digit favorites against the Dolphins. I assume we both have the bills. Yes. Okay. Bengals Ravens, Benjamin. What do you got? How about if Lamar is playing? We know nothing else other than Lamar Jackson is in uniform and he's playing on Sunday night. Who do you have winning that game? What percent?

What percent is he at? He had 100 percent? No idea. With 100 percent Lamar and picking the Ravens. Okay. And well, but we're not going to know 100 percent. So you're going to have to make a pick based on whether he's playing or not playing. Let's say he practices this week and he plays.

Yeah. And Lamar's playing in the game on picking the Ravens. The Bengals offense of line health, I think is an issue for this team. I don't know that's something that if there's one thing you could have a avoided. It would have been this again. This just really sucks for them. But also, Baltimore defensively has played them really well in the two games that Mike McDonald has coordinated against them. They've done a great job against Cincinnati. And this is a top five offense by DVOA when Lamar's playing. This is an extremely close game between two teams who hate each other.

I think it's super tight. And I just, you know me. We did a Lamar Burrow thing on this pot like two months ago. That's my guy. We did Ravens Bengals on one of our first pods. We did Burrow Lamar in a midseason pod. I always tend to be on the Bengals side. You know, in my past, I've gotten too much crap for being too pro Raven. And now, you know, I'm paired with you and I'm on the opposite side with the Bengals. This Bengals injury is such a bummer. For those don't know that don't know what we're talking about, their right guard,

Alex Kappa goes down in that game last week. Zach Taylor says he's probably not going to play this week. And then they'll see. And so it's not just the one. It's that Lyle Collins, the right tackle previously got injured. So now in the past month, they've lost their right guard and their right tackle. on what's already a thin offensive line. They had started the same five guys every game until then.

And so, yeah, that is a bummer to me because I would have really been tempted to pick this Bengals team to go to the Super Bowl. If Kappa were healthy for this game, just Kappa right guard. I don't think I'd be able to make the Ravens pick. I would want to. The Kappa injury is enabling me to. It's probably not good, but he matters a lot.

He matters a lot. I'm going to pick the Bengals here. Like I said, I've been pro Bengals. But yeah, those injuries absolutely make me nervous. All right, Jaguars, Chargers. You said you've got the Chargers, right? Yeah, I like the Chargers in this game. Chargers are favored, about two and a half points.

I think it's going to be weird. I think it's going to be low scoring. I think one of these two quarterbacks will make a turnover in the red zone with four minutes left in the fourth quarter that makes you want to punch him in the head because he played great for the 56 minutes previous. And I'm going to take the rookie. I'm not the rookie. The second year player over the third year player, the guys, you know,

had one of your less experience under his belt. But things are going to be close. It's going to be weird. I'll take the chargers. I like the Jaguars. I think the Chargers fooled people by beating Nick Foles and Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield into thinking they had some momentum and are something they're not. I'm going to zoom out, look at the bigger sample. By the way, shout out to Jaguars crowd. I thought that was a terrific crowd on Saturday night against the Titans and they're at home in this game. So I've got the Jaguars winning that. All right, what do you have for round two? So you would have the bills hosting Hill. Yeah, so I end up with Kansas City hosting the Ravens and the bills hosting the Chargers, not the Jaguars, you have the Chargers winning. The Chargers winning.

So I think, you know, come what comes in the wildcard round, I got Buffalo winning and Kansas City winning pretty much against anybody. Cincinnati makes it tricky, but you have the same protection issues against these guys. Ravens Chiefs, I think it'll be a bloodbath, to be honest. Spags knows what he's doing against Lamar's offense and they don't have passing game threats. So I think the Chiefs to beat the Ravens. And then Chargers, Bill's, I think could get fun. I think it could get weird.

I think that Staley, like you said, like he's tricked people to believe he has momentum. Yes or no? Like, they've been playing better defensively and they've gotten healthier. Rishon Slater's walking around with no brace, man. I'll tell you, that makes me feel a certain way. That may we get him back, but you know,

you don't know what he's going to be like coming off injury. I think that could still be a bit of a funky one, but we talked about this at the top of the show. The Chargers are unworthy of our trust. So Bill's Chiefs to run it in the divisional round. All right, so we've got the same, we got the same championship games. Yep, I've got Bills and Chiefs in the championship game. Who do you got, Bills or Chiefs winning that and going to the Super Bowl?

We deserve Bill's Chiefs again, right? Like, that's the main thing is I deserve it. I've worked very hard this season and I want it. So give it to me. Chiefs beat the Bills. Why? I don't know. It's Bill's Chiefs.

Like, what quarterback has the ball at the end? That's who wins. I'll pick the Chiefs, but like, also the Bills. It's not a real game for analysis. It's which superhero wins in this comic book, in this one episode of what's going to be along and a joyful rivalry. So I got the Chiefs.

Yeah, these AFC matchups are awesome, especially if Lamar plays these quarterback matchups that we have pretty much from start to finish are going to be unbelievable. I'm sticking with the Bills. I had the Bills winning the Super Bowl before the season. I had the Bills as my pick in the middle of the season. There are arguments to be made for the Chiefs for sure.

I look at this Bill's team. They go 13 and 3. They've got the best point differential in the AFC. Their three losses have come by a combined eight points. No team has beaten them by more than a field goal. I can tell you pretty much the same numbers for the Kansas City Chiefs. So yeah, you can't go wrong with either of those teams. And honestly, a lot of the same numbers for the Bengals.

They had the one bad loss to the Browns. Other than that, no one's really beat them by more than a field goal. But I'm going to stick with my preseason pick and go with the bill. So I've got Bill's Eagles in the Super Bowl. You have Niners, Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and your Super Bowl champ is. Kansas City Chiefs. Let's listen.

Patrick Mahomes, thank you for listening. Dash your point taken. I've been Ben, there is the analysis. Thank you. Good times. I've got the Buffalo Bills as Super Bowl champions beating the Eagles in Arizona. So that is my, again, that was my mid-season pick.

I'm going to stick with it. and say that they are going to win the championship. All right. That will do it. Ben, this time next week, we're talking Cowboys' Bucks playoff game, something ridiculous.

That's not going to be a boring game. We might have to go. I don't know how many hours we're going to go on that, but that's going to be fun. Stephen Ruiz reminded me this week that I was like, oh, she only gets to record right off of bucks. Cowboys and playoffs and the final days is great.

And then he was like, do you remember what the Monday night football game was last year in Super Wildcard weekend? I was terrible. Which one was it? Rams Cardinals. Rams Cardinals. There's 34 to 11 and nobody watched the entire second half. And I was like, okay, hopefully not that is what we're rooting for Bucks Cowboys.

Really? I'm saying this and jinxing it, but I mean, what's the scenario where that's a game not worthy of talking about? I mean, if the Cowboys get killed, then you got, there's Mike McCarthy, plenty of the Bucks get killed, Tom Brady. And I think it's going to be close. I think it will be a close game. So we'll talk about that. We're going to give you our leftover thoughts from Wild Card Weekend. I'm sure there'll be more coaching news at that time.

There'll be all sorts of stuff happening. I think Sean Payton is going to just milk this cycle like no coach we've ever seen. Every day you're going to wake up and hear a new Sean Payton rumor. I don't know that any coaches have more leverage in NFL history than Sean Payton. So we'll do more on that next week. All right. That'll do it for this week. Thank you to everyone for listening.

Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins. and Arjuna Ramgapal. Stay tuned to the feed all week. If there's more coaching news, whatever else is happening, we will have it covered here. And Ben and I will talk to you next Monday on Extra Point Take.