The Ringer NFL Show - Matt Nagy vs. Nick Foles, Confusing Coaching Decisions, and Do the Patriots Suck?

Episode Date: October 28, 2020

Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp open the show with a discussion about Nick Foles refuting Brian Griese’s claim that Foles bad-mouthed the Bears’ play-calling. Later in the show, the two look at some peculiar coaching decisions made this week, question if the Patriots are good, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Ringer NFL show, we discussed Nick Foles refuting claims that he badmouthed the Bayer's play calling. We also discussed some strange coaching decisions throughout the league. We question how good the New England Patriots are and discuss the start of two a time down in Miami. Coming up next. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon. Join a me as he does every Wednesday is Warren Sharp. Hey, Warren. What is up, Chris? All right, so we got a lot of stuff to get to this week. not the least of which is a little bit of controversy that attempted to be quelled yesterday. Let's start with Brian Greasy is one of the announcers on Monday night football.

When the Rams played against the Bears the other night, he said during the course of the broadcast, something that you took notice of immediately while the broadcast was going on. The rest of the country certainly took notice by the time that game was over. Brian Greasy said the following. He said, we were talking to Nick Foles yesterday, and he said, you know, sometimes play calls come in, and I know that I don't have time to execute that play call. You know, I'm the one out there getting hit. Sometimes the guy calling the plays, Matt Nagy, he doesn't know how much time there is back there. Greasy said, and he said, so that's something that we have to get worked out.

And the way the comments came across was that Greasy would seem to indicate that Foles was being critical of the play calls by, Nagy. Now, fast forward yesterday, Foll says, no, no, no, no. He said that's not what I was trying to bring across in the conversation. We go through the plays at different situations, and I'll be honest, we say we need to get rid of the ball quicker. We're talking about game situations at Coach Nagy and my conversations and our relationship. I'll say on the sideline, maybe we don't have time right now for this type of drop because of the pressure that we're bringing. I think that's a valuable

conversation I'm able to have with them. All right. So you've got these comments that Brian Greasy makes, and then it comes across as if the quarterback's being critical of the head coach, and now we fast forward to yesterday. Of course, Foles is going to get asked about it, and he tried to tamp it down. What do you make of it? I thought the comments were odd from the jump because Nick Foles had a press conference after their last win and was super jacked up and just super excited and loved everybody, and he doesn't seem to be the type of guy that's going to come out in a meeting before a game and throw his coach and his play caller under the bus and talk trash. I mean, this is a team with a winning record. He was brought in. He's now the starter.

And it just seemed very odd from the beginning that these comments would have been intended to be him criticizing Nagy and the play caller. That being said, you know, there is some truth underneath of everything. And even if he wasn't intending it to come out as super critical, the way that he was talking about things, you know, there's, there's a potential that Brian Greasy spun these things up to be something bigger. But there is something underlying here. And, you know, there is an issue with the way that the Chicago Bears offense is operating. And that's painfully obvious to anybody who watched that game against the Rams on Monday night. So there's certainly truth there. Now, what are some of the things that I was noticing in particular? Well, hold on, hold on real quick,

Warren. Doesn't that feel like a quarterback that was having? having a conversation with another guy that played quarterback in the league, and he got very comfortable, and he was saying what he really thinks. And, you know, not thinking, hey, this is going to, what I say here is going to show up as a footnote on Monday night football. I think that's probably the truth. I think he probably said that, but said that not realizing this is something that could be made to the general public. It's not like they go into those meetings and say, hey, this is all off the record. And in fact, it's on the record. But there's a level of comfortability when players are talking to players. And that comes,

the way Greasy explained it, it comes across that that's probably exactly how that conversation went. Whether it is or it isn't, you know, I'm, who am I to say? But I think at the end of the day, the sentiment of what Nick Foles was probably getting across is a valid sentiment that he really feels. He really feels that this coach is calling a play. I kind of feel like it's not going to work. I'm going to have to do something a little bit different here because this is not going to have some success.

So he's talking about primarily the pressure that he's receiving because the O-line injuries and the health of the O-line and the types of drops that Nagy's calling in and the types of personnel that he has out on the field, Foles is like spinning his wheels when he's getting the play call. He's like, oh, shit, I'm going to have to get rid of the, this ball as quick as I can. And I'm probably not going to be able to hit my, you know, some of the elaboration that

he delivered, Greece he delivered later on with Scott Mampal afterwards. It was like, when I hit my last step of my drop of my back foot, I'm going to have to get the ball out as quickly as possible. And it's probably not going to be to the most optimal target on this play call down the field because I'm not going to have time to step into that throw and do it. So I'm probably just going to have to dump it off. Sure enough, this is what we're seeing in the data. So it's beyond just the pressure rate, but let's first talk about their play designs and

where they're throwing the football on the field. Right now, if you look at the entirety of the NFL, although the qualifying quarterbacks of which I think there's close to 40, the two quarterbacks that have the highest rate of passes into tight windows, which next gen stats calls it aggressiveness, it's really tight window throws. basically use it to determine aggressiveness. It's Mitchell Trubisky number one and Nick Foles number two. So you got both the Bears starting quarterbacks for this season. Lead the NFL in tight window throws. And the percentage of tight window throws for Foles, it's 23% for Trubisky. It was 31%. These are well, well, well, well above average. I mean, we're not talking about like over the last several

years, there's only been a couple of guys in these neighborhoods. In fact, over the last three years, the only other quarterback that was above 22.7%, which is where Nick Foles is at 23%, and Trubisky is at 31, was Matthew Stafford back in 2019. And the reason why Matthew Stafford, in part, was in 2019. His average depth of target was further down the field. He's taking longer on these passes. He's trying to force the ball to make bigger plays in 2019. Nick Foll's average depth target is short. It's only 8.2 yards per attempt. These are shorter passes. So you're throwing like the more obvious short passes, but you're throwing them into tight windows at the highest rate in the NFL right now. That's a horrible, horrible, horrible combination.

All right. Let me ask you then. All right. So with that stat, it all sounds obviously startling on the surface, considering all of these quarterbacks are eligible for that stat. And yet you've got these two guys that are leading the league in that stat. how much of that is the quarterback's fault and not the, hey, these guys aren't getting separation as much. And that's because they don't throw the ball away nearly as much. Right. So I think on the surface, you would think, okay, teams probably with receivers that aren't open all the time.

Like Tom Brady last year, I remember this coming up. Maybe Cam Newton this year. I don't know what the numbers would be on that. But with Brady, you saw a lot last year. especially where he'd look up, he knows he doesn't have time, it's not there, he just throws the ball away, lives for another down. Do these guys never throw the ball away? And that's why they're constantly throwing into tight windows. No, in part, they're throwing the tight windows because of exactly what Nick Foles was saying. And that is that they're getting too much pressure. And so they're having

to just get rid of the ball. They don't have enough time to scan the field to figure out where the optimal target is. They're having to just get rid of the ball to the most, to the guy that's closest to them, the guy that's the most open that they can see. Now, the issue becomes, like, is it the quarterback or is it the coach? And all I can say is this. And I haven't dug into the numbers deeply enough to really figure out where I fall on that. But I tend to think it's a little bit more so the coaching. And I'm not even going to talk about the actual play call. I'm going to just talk about the most basic element of football, which is who do you trot out onto the field? What is the personnel that you're using on these plays?

So look at this from the Bears so far this season, including the Monday night game. When they have three or more wide receivers out on the field, okay? And let's look at early downs in the first three quarters. When they have three or more wide receivers out on the field, their passes are averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt to 49 percent. success rate and minus 0.19 EPA, when they have anything other than three plus wide receivers, so we're talking about heavier sets on these early down plays, whether it's 12 personnel, which is two tight ends, or 21 personnel, or 13 personnel, which is three tight ends,

those passes are averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, a 68% success rate and plus 0.30 EPA. Now, they're throwing with three plus wide receivers, they've done that 72 times, and their heavier sets, they've done that 55 times. But we're seeing a night and day difference between the efficiency. And again, I'm not talking about third down and obvious passing. I'm not talking about desperation in the fourth quarter trying to come back. We're talking about this is what the coach can control, forget what's happening in the game. We can control these plays.

They are doing much better when they have heavier sets where the defense doesn't know, is it going to be run past? And they're actually doing a very good job. They're only running the ball. about 50% of the time that they have these heavier sets. So they have a pretty good pass rate. The defense has no clue or were they going to run or pass out of this set. There's zero tendencies from these things.

And they're delivering much better efficiency. When the defense might be when that edge rusher might be picked up by an extra tight end who's in line, or a running back might be blocking on this play and allowing Nick Foals to have extra time. But these three plus wide receiver sets have been terrible. They're allowing way too much pressure. for Nick Foles and Trubisky before him. And it's something pretty easy that Nagy could clean up and just say, our O-line isn't getting the job done.

We need an extra tight-in to help pass-protect, and we're having a lot of success passing the ball in these heavier sets. Let's just do this more often. But they have not come to the terms of that yet. And I think that's really hurting this offense. Okay. So just listening to you, I would sum that up. I would think there is a lot of room for Bears' improvement.

So while it was a disappointing loss against the Rams on Monday night, I mean, they were going into that game. They were in pole position in the NFC East. And so there's certainly things that are not hard to change up that could make them even better than they have been so far this season, right? Absolutely. Look, everybody's really down on this Chicago Bears team after what they saw on that football field and thinking, well, Nick Foles is not the answer.

And yeah, this defense is fine, but this offense can't do anything. David Montgomery. Everybody called him like the Frankenstein of running backs. He's got all these character traits of all these different running backs who are great around the league. But then you actually look at him on the field and he's not getting that production. And I'm looking at this and saying all of that may be true, but there's a significant room for this offense to improve. It's not going to take that much work to get at least good enough so that you can be competitive in some of these games. I do think it was a terrible spot for them. It was a letdown spot. That's why a lot of the sharper guys were betting on the LA Rams in that game.

We also bet the under. That was like one of the easiest thunders that you could have. And it just was not a good spot for them. But I do think there's room for this Rams team, sorry, this Bears team to improve and do so pretty quickly if they make a couple of adjustments. All right. So we talked about their coaching this past weekend. What other big coaching decisions or game scheme were you most?

surprised with or most discontent with? Well, there's an obvious one, which we'll talk about the Falcon situation, which is kind of funny. But let's talk about Arthur Smith, because the battle of the five and O teams, the Titans and the Steelers, this is a great game. This is a game that I think people were underestimating the motivation of the Steelers being really pissed off here at the Tennessee Titans for basically costing them their buy week. You know, Tennessee came out and they won their game.

and they were talking after the games, you know, once they beat the bills, like, everybody was against us. We're rallying here. Nobody likes us. You're saying we're doing all these wrong things. And, and meanwhile, like, yeah, I think it's been pretty documented that you're doing wrong things here. So, like, every team uses whatever they want to to motivate themselves, even if it's stuff like that they've been guilty of. They want to, you know, just like the Houston Astros, trying to motivate themselves in some capacity, even though it's been clearly obvious. they were cheating. So teams are going to motivate themselves in different ways. But the Steelers quietly were seething that the Titans doing what they did and having this COVID outbreak, expanding the COVID outbreak by not following all the protocols and being as careful as they could have been or should have been based upon the rules and the guidelines of the league, caused them to miss their byweek. And so they came out really, really motivate here, really focused.

but I didn't feel like the Titans in Arthur Smith and his game plan helped matters any. Because what the Titans ended up doing here, and this is kind of what we were fearing, was, and we talked about this on the Friday show with House, was this is a run first team of Tennessee. They've got Derek Henry, their machine, but the Steelers have the number one run defense in the NFL on first downs. Are you going to run your head into a brick wall to prove a point to establish your identity? Or are you going to come out and you have confidence in Ryan Tannale. You got all your receivers are healthy right now. Johnny Smith played.

A.J. Brown, he missed practice on Thursday. Everybody was like, oh, crap, is this guy going to be out? What's going on here? Did he tweak his injury? No. In fact, this is just a new rest day. This is a new protocol for him to keep him healthy long term. So A.J. Brown was all these guys were up.

got their slot-wide receiver Adam Humphrey's back, who had missed some time with COVID. So they're healthy at receiver. You like Tannenhill. I know you don't have Taylor the Wahn, but are we going to run or are we going to pass here a little bit? Are we going to switch things up? Unfortunately, they went with, this is our identity, this is who we are, we're going to try to implement this. I don't care if you're good at stopping the run.

What ended up happening was on eight first downs in the first half of that game, they ran the ball on five of the eight. Those run plays gained only seven total yards, which led to three, three, and outs, which gave the ball back quickly to Pittsburgh, which put Tennessee's terrible defense back out onto the football field. And Pittsburgh just slowly picked them apart, move the ball down the field, and efficiently was able to produce on these guys. Now, this was something I was concerned about because you saw Tennessee come out and do the same exact type of thing against the Buffalo Bills in that primetime game on Tuesday, where they ran the ball a lot early on,

and they weren't successful with it. But then eventually it opened up and they were able to run the ball late, but they weren't doing a good job of, like, getting that lead quickly in the game against the bills. And we had a faulty final score here as well, though. I think this scored, much like that Bill's score, the Titans, one that came 42 to 16, I think. But that score was not as lopsided as one would believe just by looking at that final. this score was more lopsided than one would believe.

Pittsburgh had five trips into the Titans red zone. The Titans only had two trips. Pittsburgh only went three of five. The Titans went two of two. Pittsburgh was minus three in turnover margin. Like the teams that are minus three in turnover margins should be losing these games. Pittsburgh still was dominant throughout. They really turtled up in that second half.

They got way too conservative. I knew it was dangerous with the team like the Titans. Then you turned the ball over a couple times. Pittsburgh really dominated them in this game. It's not going to show up on the final score, and people are going to be like, oh, my God, the Titans blew it. They could have tied this game,

sent it to overtime if the guy makes the kick. They should never have been that close in this game. This was a very solid win for the Pittsburgh Steelers. But I hope that if Arthur Smith has the same opportunities again, because it's going to be going up against in a few weeks, some very good run defenses. If you look at the Chicago Bears week nine, they have three straight games against great,

run defenses. You got the Colts in two out of the three weeks and the Baltimore Ravens in week 11. Basically from weeks nine to week 12, four games in a row, Chris, they're playing defenses that all rank to almost top five in the NFL, the Bears, the Colts twice, and the Baltimore Ravens. So I want to see this team be a little bit more flexible offensively with their philosophy to try to get that lead. And then you can run the ball once you have a lead. But don't set yourself up behind the eight ball by trying to establish a run game if you're going up against a good run defense that's playing to stop that run. Those Rathosberger picked were bad picks, though, Warren.

They were, yeah. They're bad picks. Well, one of them, like, banged into the guy's helmet, I think, went skyward into the air. But he threw straight into double coverage on the one. Yes, yes. You know? And I'd tell you this, though, I don't know. See, do you have any thoughts on this?

Do you think, is this a chicken or the egg thing? Do you think that they are just amazing at evaluating and selecting wide receivers? Or are they amazing at developing receivers? Or is it some of both? Because I swear, like, for my entire lifetime, it feels like they just had these guys. And it's like, Chase Claypool did nothing on Sunday, but DeAnde Johnson goes off. And if it's not DeAnde Johnson, it's freaking James Washington. or it's whoever they find.

Like, Ju-Ju's not even having a big ear. And it's like they just find these guys that are playmakers. Yeah, no, they are. And Kevin Colbert, the Steelers GM, I wrote about this. I did an analysis on this several years ago when the Steelers fans, this is funny, Chris, every time that the Steelers let one of their big name receivers go, Steelers Nation gets super scared, right? First, it was Plaxico Burris.

then it was San Antonio Holmes, right? Like all these guys that, oh, my God, we're not going to be able live without this guy. You know, what is going to happen? We're letting this guy walk. Meanwhile, Kevin Colbert has a philosophy, has a strategy. And it's, yeah, sure, they're great at coaching their guys up. And they're a great, they're a well-organized team from getting a lot out of some of their players. But he's just great at selecting these guys.

There is a talent level to the players that he is selecting. I mean, he grabs Antonio Brown out of what Ken State, I think, in the sixth round. He's finding these guys that people are overlooking certain traits about these guys. And they're all different, right? He's finding guys that are tall or short or fast or medium. Like, he just finds them and he knows the right receivers to select and he gets great value. And zero teams are better than the Steelers. at number one, getting the most value out of their play, out of these wide receivers,

out of that position, nobody has gotten the most bang for their buck of any team in the league. I did an analysis on this about where they're drafting and the production that they get out of those draft picks. And just even if you forget where they're drafting these guys, which is a lot of times later on in the draft, but focusing more so on like just the talent that they're getting, I mean, these guys, yeah, they have misses like everybody. it is hard to hit in the draft. So if you're going to say, oh, well, look at all these 10 guys that they just completely

whiffed on. Yeah, every team is going to whiff on guys. But the issue is that the Steelers are having a much stronger hit rate than so many of these other teams. Today's ringer NFL show brought you by Fanduel. I've got to tell you about my new favorite bet concept this season. You can play same game parlays on the Fandual Sportsbook. They're pretty simple.

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All right, another coaching decision, Warren, or non-coaching decision, was in this Atlanta game. And it was very strange. As a football fan, I was watching Penn State Indiana on Saturday, and then I watched the Atlanta Falcons, the end of the Atlanta Falcons Detroit game, and you saw the same play, which is a running back that is going to run into the end zone, but he needs to stop short of the end zone. But in the Penn State kids case, he runs in and then immediately is like, oh, no, I should have just dropped at the one-yard line. In Todd Gurley's case, he actually stops at the one and then tips over into the end zone.

And there was not a human alive that wasn't watching that game going, okay, now they're losing, because Matt Stafford got the ball back, drove the lions down the field and won the game. I wanted to ask about the whole idea of dropping down at the one and running off the time versus just getting the touchdown there. Is there any justification for just running into the end zone? No. No, it is literally the only way you can lose that game. I mean, literally the only way you can use the game.

Here's the game reset for people that don't know or don't have the specifics. Detroit calls its last time out with one minute and 12 seconds left in the game. Atlanta has just gained a first down by running the ball for two yards. They are set up with a first and 10 at the Detroit Lions 10-yard line. Detroit has no more timeouts. And Atlanta is down by two points. Atlanta is down by two points. A field goal literally wins this game for you by one point.

You kick it, you win 17 to 16. And they have no way to stop you. They have no way to do anything. The only focus at this point, if you are a coach of the Atlanta Falcons, is the following. Let me get the ball where my kicker wants it. Right? That's all. Does he want the right hash or the left hash?

Where does he want to kick this from? How far back? Does he like kicking a field goal when we're at the five yard line and he has to rocket it pretty high at a higher angle? Does he want to be back at the 15 yard line? I'm not to 10. I could do a lot of different things here. I could maybe gain a couple yards.

I could lose a couple yards. Whatever my kicker wants to do, I'm talking to my kicker. I'm making sure I know where he wants to kick this game-winning field goal from that will make it the easiest for him to get it through the uprights. And it's a super close, super easy field goal either way, right? That's all it is. The only thing they can lose this game is somehow a botched snap or scoring a touchdown. That's literally the only way that you can lose this game. And so for me, it's not like, but that is all, but that is all dependent upon their timeouts and score and everything, right? Because if they, because of the 112,

with no timeouts on the other side. Exactly. And I'm just outlining this because, you know, there are people that sit there and go, well, they went up five. It's not the worst thing in the world to go up five. I mean, the team still has to go down and score a touchdown to beat you, right? But the truth is they could have left no time on the clock and kick the 27 yards. Exactly.

The only, the way that you win this game is not by scoring a touchdown. And this is basic game theory that all coaches in the NFL should understand. So this should not, like people are blaming Todd Gurley. And the coach, and afterwards it's like Todd Gurley. And the coaches say, oh, well, you know, we've coached up the guy. Like I've seen a couple different stories. They said, you know, Todd Gurley admit making a mistake. And that the coaches admitted to coaching him.

This is the fact. It shouldn't have anything fucking to do with Todd Gurley. It shouldn't have been in Todd Gurley's hands. They shouldn't have had to coach Todd Gurley of what to do here. You have first and 10 at the 10 yard line. kneel on the football, kneel the ball only two times, kick the field goal on third down. If the snap is bad, if there's something wrong, you call another timeout, you go down, you call it.

Like, there's a lot of different ways that you can do something to give yourself the opportunity to win this game. What Atlanta did was totally stupid. It cost them this football game. And I'm telling you, Chris, I was sketched out with this game because I had Detroit plus three here. And I'm like, okay, this is not great, but this is, they're just going to, they're just going to kick the field goal here. I'm still going to cover this game. And then I see them run it and they get close to the end zone.

I'm like, oh my God. And then I see up, he's pulling up. Thank God. But then he falls into the end zone anyways. And I'm like, what in the world? Because now we're going to have to score a touchdown with hardly any time left. Luckily, we got, I got the cover. It should have been an easy cover.

Shouldn't have been sweating this game. whatsoever, but it was stupid by the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff, and there should be zero blame to, well, a little bit of blame, but the majority of the blame should be falling on the coaching staff for not calling the right play in there, which should have been quarterback Neels. What was funnier than that still capture of the game where the Detroit Lions liebacker is holding up his arms in the air calling a touchdown by Todd Gurley? He's like, touchdown, when the lions are all calling a touchdown. Right.

And I always, it was hilarious. It's a great photo. And I always say this. And this is like the mantra that any coach should be thinking about. We need to be doing what the other team doesn't want us to do. So if you're the Atlanta Falcons and the other team is cheering that you scored a touchdown, then you obviously made a catastrophic touchdown. decision. A catastrophic decision. So, I mean, that's a hilarious photo, and it's just the Falcons in a

nutshell. Speaking of catastrophic decisions that did not end up turning catastrophic, I have to ask you about this because that Sunday night game was absolutely unbelievable from an entertainment standpoint. Is there any justification? And I know Cliff Kingsbury came out and apologized and everything. Is there any justification for kicking a field goal on second and 15? I thought it was unnecessary. I don't know if there is, I don't really know what the justification is. They maybe thought they used their timeout ahead of that play too. Yeah, he was a breath of fresh air because he like kind of outlined it one by one talking about I screwed up here, I screwed up here, I screwed up here.

Like I just screwed up. And I was like, I can't believe. Usually some guy tries to defend that crap. Yeah, and look, let's face it. It's a 41-yard field goal. The guy had made some before in the game. But you're also icing your kicker, right? Like, you called a time out before that play.

So you have first and 10 on the Seahawks 18. Your QB has a five-yard loss. You're now second and 15 from the Seattle 23. It's still only a 41-yard field goal, but you're calling a time out there. You might as well try to regain some of those yards back. There's still two minutes and 40-some seconds left on the clock. I definitely thought that they should not have kicked from that point.

And just run your kicker on in the normal routine of things. Don't be calling a time out before you send your guy out there to think about it more. Warren, this weekend is Tua time. I love Tua in college at Alabama. I love the story because it looked like, I mean, there was a moment at time where people thought his injury could be career ending. And it was so sad to even think about that being a possibility. But instead he is still drafted extremely highly in the NFL draft.

He is tabbed as the next franchise quarterback of the Miami Dolphins. As we've talked about a couple of times, he better be pretty damn good because the Herbert kid looks unbelievable. But anyways, they have pulled Fitzmagic. Tua is being inserted. And I've got to ask you, does that. affect the line at all? Would there be a different line for the Miami Rams game if Tua starting versus if it were Fitzpatrick? And is there any way to project what a new quarterback can do?

Okay. I'm pulling up my book here from where I have the lines from before the season started. And before the season started, the Miami Dolphins were forecast to be a three-point underdog in this game. Right now, they're a four-point underdog. And the tough part is we really don't have a good look-ahead, Chris, because the sports books normally will come out with the look-ahead on next week's games. About this time of the week, on Tuesday or so of the prior week. Well, Miami is entering a buy. So there was no look-ahead line for the week eight game when they finished the week six game.

And they had week seven off. So we don't really know exactly what that line would have been with Fitzpatrick, but I can tell you that absolutely the Miami Dolphins are a higher power rated team with Fitzpatrick, the established Fitzpatrick in there, than Tua's very first game of his career. There's a lot of things that are question marks here. We covered it on the show because you astutely noted that Tua is left-handed. And there's going to be a lot of adjustments that have to be made. And this is why I think this probably is the right decision to get him started coming out of a buy week.

And so Miami's sitting here. There really wasn't any other alternative for them. If they want to play Tua this year, it's very difficult to insert a left-handed quarterback where now your blind side is completely different, the way that you're running the ball to the various different directions, the way that the running backs have to respond, the handoffs. Everything sort of gets flipped a little bit across. the horizontal across the vertical axis of the football field. And this is not something that's very easy to do overnight. It's better for them to do it like this, where they're doing it during a by week. So we know this was sort of had to be the time, but does it put them in the best situation

to win this game? Probably not. You know, it's probably not the best situation for them to win this game. But it's going to be interesting. Look, one of the things that I was noticing when you, you study the play calling of the Miami Dolphins, and you don't just look at it, oh, well, this is what they're doing all over the field,

but you start breaking it down across the field. When they're outside of the red zone, this is a team on early downs in the game's first half. They're the number three most pass-heavy team in the league, the number three most pass-heavy. And these passes aren't just adding a little bit of efficiency. Chris, these are adding a ton of efficiency, 9.9 yards per pass attempt on these early downs.

plays in the game's first half, a 62% success rate. If the dolphins say, well, if Chang Galey comes in and says, well, hey, now we don't have Ryan Fitzpatrick, I don't trust him quite as much. I don't want to make him drop back this many times. So let's run the ball a little bit more. You know their run plays, we're gaining only 3.4 yards per carry and a 42% success rate in those same situations, which is early downs in the first half of games. So you would be moving from a much more efficient.

play call, which is a pass, to a much worse efficient play call, which is a run. You also may have this situation where the Rams are now going to play the run a little bit more because they know they don't respect yet to a, they're going to make to approve himself. We're going to play the run and force this guy to beat us. So I have a feeling that those runs are going to be even a little bit less efficient against the Rams defense. So it's going to be a little bit of an adjustment. We are going to see a Dolphins team that is not,

quite the same. I hope we get this, the same thing that happened with Justin Herbert, the very first time he was out there. And you remember it, the game against the Kansas City Chiefs, where all of a sudden he's in there and he's throwing the ball down the field. They're taking a lead over the Chiefs. I mean, everybody was like, what in the world's going on with this kid? It's unbelievable. I would love to see that too from Tua. But it's definitely going to be a big adjustment from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, the fascinating thing is, and I thought about this when I was watching Kyler Murray the other night. Now, Tua is not as spry as Murray, certainly nowhere near the speed.

But he is a guy that on third and long, on third and eight, third and nine, he was able to run and pick up that first down. He does create that kind of threat. Does he do that post leg injury? Especially when it's in his first game, right? Like, I mean, running out in the open field in the NFL is a dangerous proposition. the kid has had a very serious injury history. Is that part of his game still, right? The guy that when it's just not there and the defense is all covering all the way down

the field, he can beat a linebacker to the sideline to convert the third and eight. Or is he just not going to be willing to do that? I think in the heat of the moment, he's probably just going to do it because it's his natural instinct to do it. But that is something that's there. because he's a super athletic kid. No, it is. I don't know that there's going to be any, though, in this particular situation, upgrade

because Ryan Fitzpatrick was the same way. He's not nearly as spry or as athletic or as talented as either Tua or Kyler Murray, as you were comparing him to. But Ryan Fitzpatrick still is the dude that's going to take off and tuck his chin and try to get those yards and maniacally run around the field if something's there, not there in the past game. So he was providing a lot of efficiency.

It is, I mean, I can tell you, we see it with Patrick Mahomes, the best in the game right now, but we see it all over the place with the exception of like Tom Brady, you know, right now and Ben Rathesberger maybe. But quarterbacks that can add something in the run game when plays are breaking down, just have a massive advantage because dropbacks are so much more efficient than run plays. But when that dropback doesn't work, if the defense is playing pass, If they've got a good call to cover your guys, then, you know, what is your alternative? And if you can have a quarterback who can maybe make one guy miss or at least get out of the pocket with a little bit of speed and get a first down or a gain, turn a sack into a positive gain on a play, that adds a lot of value and helps keep your drive going.

Well, I'm glad you said that because that was certainly the case in the first couple of weeks with the Patriots and Cam Newton. I think I speak for a lot of football fans when I sit back and I say, okay, the Patriots appear to suck. So why? Why do they suck? And what are their biggest problems that can they be fixed? How much of it is cam? And if you know, when is the last time they were catching points against the Buffalo

built? Is it really like 20 years ago? Or is it like maybe when they were sitting everybody in like a week 17 game or something that I don't remember? Like if they caught points. against the bills since the 2000s began? Yeah, the last time that the Buffalo Bills were favored over the New England Patriots was week one of 2003.

Holy mackle. Is that the, wait, wait, is that the lawyer Malloy gang? Is that right after they got rid of lawyer Malloy and the bills thumped them in week one? 31 to nothing. the Bill stumped them. There is a book. There's a great book for anybody out there. I'm glad I get to mention this.

It's written by a guy Michael Holly. He wrote a book called Patriot Rain, and it was one of the very first books that was ever written about the Patriots and them winning Super Bowls. In that book, I believe the book opens up, if I'm not mistaken, but certainly it's one of the chapters. It's about how Bill Belichick has never, like,

never like talk to or acknowledged or anything, Tom Jackson sent because Tom Jackson went on with Chris Berman that night and said they got rid of lawyer Malloy. This was a critical error in judgment. And Bill Belichick lost the locker room over this. It was week one. By the way, they went on to win the Super Bowl. They went on to win the Super Bowl.

But Tom Jackson was dead to him from then on. That's why I call it the lawyer Malloy game. But that book, for anybody that's like a hardcore football fan, you can probably get that thing on Amazon for two bucks. And I'm telling you, you will love it. He was, he was a fly on the wall for like an entire season with the Patriots, Michael Holley. And I loved this book. I've told Michael that I love this book.

It was so good because there's so much stuff in there that you would never in a million years imagine that you would be able to learn. How about this one? I'll give everybody a tip on this. There is, in the course of it, they're talking about evaluated quarterbacks, and they're talking about how they landed on Tom Brady. They are, he was sixth round pick, very famously, right, in the 200s. They are in their war room, and there was an argument in the war room.

They are going to take a quarterback at that time, right? They chose between Tom Brady and Tim Retei from Louisiana. Tech. That was the argument. That was the argument. So you think about how this altered history in their war room, the argument that they were having over this six-round pick is do we take Tom Brady from Michigan or do we take Tim Rete from Louisiana Tech? And maybe the whole football world is different dependent upon that particular pick. But anyways, that is a very good book. I'm glad I got to mention that because I read that years and years ago and I still remember a couple of things from it. But that Bill's game that you spoke of, Warren, that is a very significant game in Patriot's history.

Because they got their ass kick and they had just gotten rid of Lauriamilloy who went to the bill. He was on the bills. That offseason. And then they played him week one, killed him. Tom Jackson goes on national TV and says Bill Belichick has lost the locker room. He let his team leader walk away rather than paying him. and this is, you know, chickens coming to roost because lawyer Malloy now playing with the bills beat their ass.

Crazy to think about, right? Yeah, though that is. That's a great story. It is crazy, and it's certainly been a long time since the Patriots were underdogs, obviously, to the Buffalo Bills. So the question about, like, what is going on in New England, I think there's a few things, and it's actually on both sides of the ball. It obviously starts with the fact that this defense lost a ton of town,

This offense, just with looking at the COVID opt-outs beforehand, I mean, all these guys that were no longer going to be playing on this squad. And, you know, then you talk about the quarterback situation. We saw the Patriots come out week one. They got their, they got a win over the Miami Dolphins at home. They go into Seattle in prime time in week two. And they almost beat the Seahawks. I mean, now that looks like a great result, right? they only lose by five points. Cam Newton is dealing. He doesn't look anything like the guy.

Okay, then they come back week three. They get the win by 16 points over the Las Vegas Raiders. And it's like, okay, the Patriots are okay. They're fine. For the first three weeks of the season, we thought these guys are fine. Then Cam gets COVID. Can't play in the week four game in Kansas City. The team loses. Then there's a buy. And then there's back-to-back losses. Now, the loss against Denver Broncos was worse than what the scoreboard indicated because Denver, I don't think they punted once or they scored their first six drives all got into scoring territory. They just kicked field goals every time. There should have been more points scored by the Broncos in that game. And then, of course, we saw the result, Cam looking terrible against the 49ers. So the question is,

like, over the last couple of games, since the buy and since Cam came back, what really is the issue? Because over the first part of the season, it wasn't nearly as extreme. And I think there's a variety of factors here at play. If you're just talking about offensively, we know that there isn't a great talent pool to draw from as it relates to past catchers, right? I mean, Julian Edelman is getting bracketed over the middle of the field. He has a high drop rate, leads the NFL in that. The rest of the guys, they aren't really particularly fast. They're not particularly good. But then you look at what Cam struggles. And one of the things that Cam's doing is holding on to the ball too long. I mean, His processing speed is very low.

He is not getting rid of the ball quickly enough. And sometimes these situations are leading to coverage sacks and coverage pressures. You know, like him holding on to the football over three seconds per pass attempt is allowing pressure to get there. These balls need to be coming out quicker. And so this is something that Josh McDaniels can work on to try to fix and to improve. But then if you look at the other side of the football, I mean, let's not pretend. that this is all offensively related. The defense has been struggling as well.

And if we look at, you know, this is an issue that they're going to be facing against the Buffalo Bills, who use a ton of three plus wide receiver sets. We'll see if, I don't know if John Brown is going to be able to play in this game or not, but this is team that still is going to just go next man up. We're doing three, four wide receiver sets here.

Look at the difference between the Patriots past defense against three plus wide receiver sets, 2019 to 2020. And just over the span of one year, this was a team that was allowing only 6.7 yards per per attempt. That's up to 8.9. They were only allowing 45% success rate. That's up to 63. They were holding teams to minus 0.14 EPA. That's up to plus 0.18. They were holding teams to a 73 pass rating. That's up to 106. They were getting more pressure. They're getting less pressure now when teams are playing three plus wide receivers on early down. So it's kind of like we,

have a high ability to know you're probably going to pass here when you tried out three plus wide receivers. And in the years past, we were able to stop that. But this year, we're not. We're not able to get pressure. But it's part of that because they're on the field all the damn time? I mean, look, I know you say that it's not all about their offense, and it's not. But I had Andy Dalton as my starting fantasy quarterback, and I won the quarterback matchup because the other guy had Cam Newton. I've never seen a negative, like this side of Nathan, Peterman, I don't know if I've ever seen a negative fantasy week from a quarterback. Cam Newton was literally a negative fantasy quarterback.

I won that matchup 2.5 to negative one. No, there's no doubt, Cam has been terrible. Like, that's the first point of what I'm saying. And so if your defense is on the field all the frigging time because you can't even get a first down or you're turning it over immediately, of course they're giving up more yards. And of course they're giving up worse plays because they're freaking tired. Well, that's, that is true. That's going to play a part of it.

But I was down. I was lower on the Patriots defense last year than most people. Most people thought this Patriots defense after the first part of the season was like the best in NFL history potentially. But it was only because if you dug deeper into it, they were playing a ridiculously easy schedule of opposing offenses. And over the second half of the year, when they finally started playing respectable. offenses, this defense looked merely mortal. They were not in the top 10 in terms of efficiency

against any respectable offense. And then they lose a bunch of players this offseason. So I think people need to come to the realization that this Patriots defense, they're used to seeing Bill Belichick coach these guys up and they're used to seeing a lot more talent than they've got. This defense does not have the talent and they weren't as good as what people remember them to be last year. This is a defense that's going to allow drives and points. I mean, just look at what the 49ers put up on this defense in the first half of the game last week. We're not talking about in the second half when they're super tired. We're talking about the first half. Just look at what the Denver Broncos and Drew Locke, who looked absolutely abhorrent and terrible in the snow against Kansas City last week. He took this team,

their first six drives of the game when this New England Patriots defense was rested and healthy and fresh. and they drove down the field of the scoring territory on all six of their first drives of the game. So this defense is nowhere close and this offense needs a lot of work. It's in some part I think they can get better from a play calling perspective and what they're doing and a run rate and how they're trying to optimize their offense. And Cam certainly needs to improve a lot. I think there's room for improvement over what we've seen the last couple of games. It'll be interesting against this Buffalo Bills team, a Buffalo Bills defense that has struggled, tremendously to stop the run.

Can the New England Patriots get a little bit better? Will they look a little bit better in this game? Because you've gone up against a couple of teams that are fairly good against the run. The Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers the last couple of weeks. Now all of a sudden you're playing a Buffalo Bill's defense that has been way worse than expected entering the season and particularly has been very poor against the run. Can the Patriots make adjustments? Will Cam look a little bit better?

it's going to be one of the most interesting games of the week for me. Grab your tinfoil hat, Warren. I'm going to throw a conspiracy at you, okay? There was a big issue with Jimmy Garapolo ending up elsewhere. You know that Bill Belichick didn't want to get rid of him. Robert Kraft knew that there was an issue. Tom wasn't happy about all this with the guy breathing down his neck and the guy from the future being behind him.

And so it was well reported that Bill Belichick said, hey, I love Kyle Sannahan. I've got great respect for him. So that's the team that I'll end up dealing him to. So he deals him away. And he knows he's up against it. So he goes totally vanilla in this game anyway, knowing he's going to get his ass beat.

And then he can walk into the office to Robert Kraft and be like, hey, you remember when you made me trade away Jimmy Garoppolo? Good call. How about that? It's definitely a possibility. Definitely a possibility. All right, let's hit these last two real quick. A couple of weeks ago, you encouraged us to go bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl

because he thought the odds were really good. If we consider Kansas City the favorite still, in your mind, are they in a tier alone? Should Pittsburgh be in that tier with them now? I know that when we talked about a couple weeks ago, you still considered the Ravens, the best contender to the Chiefs. What about the Titans, who we just saw play against the Pittsburgh Steelers this past weekend? Where do you stand on, should I consider the Chiefs head and shoulders above the rest of that AFC competition?

Or as we have gone further into the season, do you look at teams on the same level as them? Well, I think the Chiefs are at the forefront still of the AFC. And that's really what it boils down to. We're looking for value. And I think maybe if you look at the NFC, now you're looking at, you know, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a team that's emerging. The Seattle Seahawks is a team that's emerging. I think Green Bay has proved itself to be problematic, particularly on defense,

but they're a team that's still really good. But we don't have to worry about any of those teams. When we're hedging this thing, if you did bet a future on the chiefs, you need them to get to the AFC championship game. And then you have options. You can start hedging against them in that game. if they get the Super Bowl hedging against it to make sure that you earn a profit. So let's focus on just the AFC.

And in the AFC right now, I think beyond the Kansas City Chiefs, there are teams that are definitely flawed here. Like you look at the Tennessee Titans. I think their flaws are apparent. Their defense is really bad. I think you look at the Baltimore Ravens, and this is a team that is having issues on offense. And we've seen they just don't match up well.

with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs know how to beat their blitz and are going to have some success against this Baltimore defense, and they've done that every single time that they've played. They're in their minds, and Lamar Jackson has admitted to it. So that's a plus matchup for Kansas City entering that game. The Steelers are an interesting one because, you know, they are undefeated as well right now,

but they're a team that I think is going to have trouble with the way that Kansas City plays offense because Pittsburgh's going to do what they normally do, which is blitz the Chiefs. They're one of the highest blitz rate teams in the NFL, just like Baltimore. Pittsburgh's front seven is really good, but the back half of that defense can be beat,

especially with the team like the Chiefs. So you just need Patrick Mahomes to use his legs to buy time, all these drops where he's dropping. He catches a ball on a shotgun snap six yards behind the line of scrimmage. But then he runs backwards for another six to say 12 yards depth behind the line. And then he's throwing the ball down the field. He never turned the back on his defense once.

And he's throwing the ball down on the field. Like he's going to be able to do those types of things against this Pittsburgh Steelers team and beat them over the top. So defenses have been making, have been playing the chiefs differently. They've been sitting back more and forcing the chiefs to take these more time consuming run intensive drives down the field. slowly progress the football and to score. And they know, okay, well, we're going to shorten the game, which is what an underdog wants. You know, just so that you know, like,

underdogs want the games to have fewer possessions. They want fewer plays because they know that if this other team, which is better than me, can run 75 plays in this game. There's 75 times where they can show that they're better than me. But if I hold them to 55 plays and this game only has, eight drives instead of the other team having 12. I know that I have fewer chances that that team is going to score points to get a bigger lead over me.

So they're sitting back and making the chiefs earn these yards, keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands. So what I'm going to be fascinated with is over the second half of the season, teams like the Steelers and the Ravens, will they play the chiefs a little bit differently? Will they use the same tactics that the Buffalo Bills used against the Kansas City Chiefs? or will they blitz them like they normally want to do? All right. But the chiefs would still be favored at Pittsburgh, right? I believe so, yes.

Home field, because home field is significantly worth less. If this was a Steelers team that if we're talking about in the postseason is at home against the Kansas City Chiefs and has a typical home field advantage, I would say no. But the Chiefs were favored by three points. Well, sorry, the Ravens were favored by three points over the chiefs in Baltimore earlier this year. Homefield is not worth as much as it was at that point in time. But I do think that at this point in the season, if they played right now,

I think this game is very close in terms of the spread. But if we're talking about in the postseason, you know, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are still doing what they're doing, if they have a lead and they're the number one seat and they're hosting the Chiefs, I think at that point the Steelers would be favored in Pittsburgh. All right, last thing, let me ask you about that chief spread this weekend because they are almost three touchdown favorites over the Jets. When is the last time that has happened? Have we ever seen the point spread that big?

20 and a half in the frigging NFL? Like, I can't remember one, maybe like those, that Patriots team with Moss, I mean, I remember they were beating everybody's ass and the numbers got pretty crazy. Yeah, so that Patriots team back in 2007 had multiple games where they favored by over three touchdowns. Oh, wow. Yeah, this line has been bet down. Right now, I'm seeing this line currently at 19 to 19 and a half points. And since, let me just pull it up here. Let's do a spread of 19.

teams of 19 plus point favorites have gone 18 and no over the last 30 years. So it's happened 18 different times. The last time it happened actually was against the Miami Dolphins last year. With just their terrible season, they were actually underdogs of 19 points to the Patriots in week two and 22 and a half points to the Cowboys of all teams in week three. What? Yes, your Cowboys. Wait, last year?

Last year, your Cowboys, who were undefeated at the time, in week three, laid 22 and a half points over this Dolphins team that had been crushed, I believe, to the Ravens in week one and then the Patriots, week two, if I'm not mistaken. And they lost those games by large margin. I mean, they lost to the Patriots in week two, 43 to nothing. And you guys actually covered. You guys held them to two first half field goals. They didn't score another point.

You won 31 to 6. So the teams that are favored prior to that, though, it hasn't happened since 2013. It was the Jaguars that happened to in a couple of games. And bottom line here is that it has happened. It happened last year a couple times, but then prior to that, not for like 18 years or so. That's 18 and 0 straight up. What about against the number? Against the number.

These favorites are 7 and 11. They've only covered 39% of these games, although they've covered three out of the last four. Since 2013, they've covered three out of the last four. So typically, these favorites, it's no doubt that they're going to win. I will say if you are interested in attempting to tease these teams, that's a bad idea too. I don't think, oh, well, yeah, you know, the Patriots, the Chiefs, I don't know if I feel comfortable laying 19 and a half, but you know what, I'll just tease them down. Yeah.

They just got to win by 10, Warren. Right. Well, by 13, right? Like you get a six point teaser. I'll just tease them down. They can win by two touchdowns. Oh, no, no, no. I'm doing that three team 10 points.

Okay. Well, three team 10 points, not good either because those teams, I'll give you the numbers. If you tease these teams down by six points, you're flipping a coin. You're only nine and nine. If you're teasing them by 10 points, you're still almost only flipping a coin. You've won nine, you've lost eight, and you've pushed one. So it's a bad, it's a bad decision to tease these teams down. And it's absolutely.

You're no fun. You're no fun. What are you trying to do? What do you want to do here, Chris? You want to lay the points? No, I don't. I don't want to lose. I don't want to.

Oh, maybe I should take the jet plus 30 or whatever. Well, this is, I think this is definitely just showcasing the fact that, Yeah. In addition to the interesting quarterback battle here, Patrick Mahomes versus Sam Darnold, we have a battle of like one coach on one side, Andy Reid, who is as creative as it comes, who will game plan against the opponent and be very, just whatever it takes to win. And you've got a guy like Adam Gase, who absolutely is the opposite. He's going to call his offense.

The way he calls he, he's got to try to 11 personnel, he's just going to do one thing, the entire. Like, this guy is not creative and Andy Reid is very creative. So I'm going to be interested in watching this game. It should be fascinating, but I'm absolutely not doing anything from a betting perspective with a 19.5 point spread. I'm going to, I will say this. In Adam Gase's defense, and I know, I know your problems with Adam Gase. The other night, my son kicked my ass in Madden. And so I said, all right, forget that.

We're picking new teams. So I picked the Arizona Cardinals just so if I was about to get some. sack I could run with Kyler Murray. And he chose the New York Jets because he was trying to be arrogant and show me he could beat me no matter who. And I was victorious in the game, Warren. He's 10. I was victorious in the game.

And of course, I've run my mouth ever since. And he reminds me that he chose the jet. Now, Sam Darnold ended that game, I believe, 8 for 29 in our Madden game. But as I was playing. the game against him, I was, I was appalled at their roster, honestly. Like, I know that Adam Gaye sucks, but they got nobody. I mean, and I'm saying this as someone who was their madden opponent. Like, some of their guys, some of their, some of their guys that caught the ball,

I was like, who the hell was mad? Yeah, and I think, I think you're right. And this is a team that I think needs to let Joe Douglas work whatever he can work before the trade deadline. to set this team up for longer-term success because it's clear they've got nothing, nothing this season, and they have to build for the future, especially now that you see the struggles

that the Patriots are having, you're introducing a new rookie quarterback in Miami, set ourselves up here for longer-term success, do whatever needs to happen before this trade deadline. I hope that they're players in the trade market here. All right, Warren, that's going to do it for another edition of the Rigger NFL show. Remember to tune in to Kevin Clark and company tomorrow.

row and we will talk to you next week.