The Ringer NFL Show - Melvin or Ekeler, the Buy-Low Bengals, and Other Week 5 Matchups to Exploit | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: October 4, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck talk about the players who are too rich for their blood (4:20), players to buy low on (11:30), and contrarian players to start this week (20:00). Then th...ey open the bargain bin and give out their Week 5 lineups (29:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up guys, it's Liz Kelly, and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. I want to tell you guys about a brand new podcast coming to our luminary slate called Sonic Boom. For more than four decades, the Seattle Supersonics were among the NBA's most iconic franchises. But in 2008, they packed their bags for Oklahoma. Hosted by the ringers Jordan Ritter-Con, Sonic Boom tells the story of basketball and politics, wealth and power, and reveals new truce about the NBA's greatest heist. You can find the eight-episode documentary podcast exclusively on Luminary starting October 3rd. The Danesie Football Podcast on the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network.
Starting point is 00:00:57 My name is Danny Hyfitts, and I am joined as always by my co-host and my co-danny, the hero we need and the analysts we deserve. The Dark Knight himself, Danny Kelly. How you doing, D.K.? I'm doing excellent, man. How are you doing? I am doing wonderful. How are you doing, Craig? Craig, you good? I'm great. You're great?
Starting point is 00:01:15 Yeah. Tony, the time. over there. All right, we're going to run through a bunch of players that we like for daily fantasy matchups this week. We're going to break down a Draft King's light up later. But first, we're going to run through some categories of daily fantasy players we like this week.
Starting point is 00:01:29 Shall we dive in? Let's just get right into it. Like Scrooge McDuck. Go big or go home. D.K., who's an expensive player you think is worth the money this week? I really like running back Dalvin Cook of the Vikings this week going up against the Giants. And I feel like I pitched this to every week. Tell me about the Giants defense, Danny.
Starting point is 00:01:49 What Giants defense? Exactly. Cook is 8400, which is obviously on the expensive side, but he has turned into a pretty matchup-proof running back. I mean, he's running the ball extremely well. He's extremely dynamic with the ball on his hand. But he's also a factor in the past in game. He has 13 targets and 10 catches over the last two games. So I think regardless of game script, he's going to be involved, you know, whether through the air on the
Starting point is 00:02:16 with the Stefan Diggs situation. Right now, it's Thursday afternoon. We don't know what's exactly going on with Stefan Diggs. If he's going to play this week or if he's getting a traded or what. But to me that, like, if Diggs is out, that means even more targets and looks for Cook. So I just think he has a chance to be a really, really heavy volume player this week against Giants. So Diggs did end up actually practicing fully on Thursday. It looks like he's going to play.
Starting point is 00:02:43 So I, but having said that I like this a lot because obviously the bear's shut down. Alvin Cook last week. And I would, I think the best description of the Giants defense is like the Bears, but the opposite. So it's a good play. Inverse of the Bears. Anyone else really expensive that you like this week, D.K.? I like, as an honorable mention, I'm going to throw out to Andre Hopkins against the Falcons. He's 7,800.
Starting point is 00:03:05 It's funny because he should almost be a buy-low candidate, except his price just hasn't dropped. He has not basically, he hasn't had a performance that's really like what he's done over his career so far this year. I think that's going to turn around this week. I think he's going to go off. He's had a couple plays that he's really missed, you know, just kind of close misses all season. I think that's going to change this week against the Falcons defense,
Starting point is 00:03:30 who gave up a bunch of points last week to the Titans' offense of all offenses. I mean, Corey Davis had 20 points. AJ Brown had 24 points. He had three catches, 94 yards, and two touchdowns. So, yeah, I mean, I like that matchup and I like Hopkins. I think they finally kind of figured out. and get it together this week. So Hopkins going against Julio Jones.
Starting point is 00:03:49 Those are the two most expensive receivers of this week. Why do you like Hopkins more than Julio in this game? Just basically the matchup with the Falcons. I mean, the Falcons defense just has not been looking good this week, or like this last couple of weeks. And, you know, they just look out of sort. So to me that match. Keanu Neal is one of their best safeties to an Achilles injury,
Starting point is 00:04:08 which has really had a huge impact on them. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, to me, that just looks like a good matchup for them, especially after watching what they did. against the Titans last week. All right, well, so on the flip side, expensive players who are too rich for our blood. Levy on Bell, running back for the New York Jets, $6,800 in Draft Kings. Not a fan of Levian Bell this week.
Starting point is 00:04:30 There's a bunch of numbers, which I'll get to, which is Philly is one of the five best run defenses in the league by efficiency. And then the Jets are one of the three least efficient run offenses by football outsiders' efficiency. So Bell's getting volume. He's actually gotten like 18 and change carries per game. Only Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, and Derek Henry have more carries per game than Levi-on-Bell. But the Jets have 3.0 yards per attempt, which is tied with the dolphins, like 30th in the league. They don't have a rushing touchdown. I don't think it's going to come this week against the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:05:00 But honestly, those are numbers and numbers are boring. Can we talk about life decay because it is precious and worth protecting? Sam Darnold is going to play this week with a possibly compromised spleen. He's been out with mononucleosis, and I think everyone had the same joke about, oh, he's like in college. Well, you don't learn in college because no one's tackling you for living, is that your spleen is in danger of rupturing for weeks. And Adam Gaze has basically said, if Sam Donald's cleared by the doctors, he's just going to throw him in the game.
Starting point is 00:05:28 Here's what Sam Donald said about his spleen. Quote, it's good, I think. I don't really know. Some Connor Hughes of the athletic. He went on, quote, Sam Donald, quote, It's a tough thing because you want to stay safe. I want to make sure that I'm safe out there, and I'm not going to die.
Starting point is 00:05:47 If there's one person that we can trust to really just put Donald in the best situation to survive and not die, it's Adam Gase, who left his wife in the ER after she had given birth and she was still getting sewn up after a C-section. He left her to go back to work. This story comes from the athletic, like they're quoting his wife, Jennifer Gase. And the baby is attached. And he looks at his wife and says, you good? You good? She says, yeah, I'm good.
Starting point is 00:06:19 He's like, all right, I'm out. Again, this is his wife telling the story. And then the doctors ask, do you want to cut the umbilical cord? And he says, no, I'm good. So you know what else? I'm good with Levion this week. I'm good. Oh, man.
Starting point is 00:06:32 All right. So you're not playing, you're not playing Levion, it's the point. No, I'm good. Okay. He's too rich for your blood this week. Also, we hope Sam Darnold, hope you're all right. I hope he doesn't die. I hope you don't play.
Starting point is 00:06:42 Don't play. Don't play. Don't play football. Dude, how many metaphorical things if you're like, oh, this person didn't die for this. Please don't die for this jet season. Don't die for the jets. So not worried.
Starting point is 00:06:50 No one should die for the jets. No one should die for the jets. Oh, man. My too rich for my own blood, no, too rich for my blood this week is Alvin Kamara, of the Saints versus the Buccaneers, 8,600. The Bucks have been really good against opposing running backs. They've been the third most stingiest defense versus running backs this week, just 15, or this season, just 15 PPR points per game.
Starting point is 00:07:15 obviously Camara is a rare talent, incredible tackle breaker, excellent pass catcher. He's the whole package, and they're probably going to feed him. But the last three games, his production has been all over the map. I mean, he scored 11.9 points, then 37.1 points and 7 points. To me, I mean, if you're building your lineup, I would just prefer to go with a different guy this week just because he's been kind of all over the place, very inconsistent.
Starting point is 00:07:41 That offense is inconsistent with Teddy Bridgewater under center. I just don't trust it 100%. Would you trade Kamara if you're in a season-long league if you could get someone who thinks he's going to be a top five back rest of the way? I mean, there's very few players I would trade Kamara for, maybe like three or four, but I would consider it if you're talking Christian McCaffrey or something, absolutely.
Starting point is 00:08:02 What about David Johnson? That's really borderline. That sounds super specific like you're wondering that in a league. I'm like, ah, just on the top of my head. What about David Johnson? What about Sequin, assuming he comes back? next week. I think I might. That's actually a really good question.
Starting point is 00:08:17 I can't believe he's going to come back. He's like LeBron. Remember when LeBron? He's Wolverine, man. He's Wolverine. Sequin said after the game when he sprained his ankle, I had the same injury when I was at Penn State, I missed two games. And that is what he's on pace for. Listen to the man when he speaks. Speaking of listening to the man, Craig, do you have our listener question of the week? I do, and it pairs with somebody who's too rich from my blood. So we're going to talk about Melvin Gordon, who is $7,000 this week. He's back. The listener question on the ringer NFL show Facebook page comes from Michael Anthony Pico Jr. Thank you, Michael. His question is,
Starting point is 00:08:48 even with Melvin Gordon returning, should I treat Austin Echler as a starter? So, looking back to last year in 2018, Melvin Gordon played 12 games, 11 of which were with Echler, and Melvin Gordon was the overall running back seven, even though he only played 12 games. Echler played 14 games last year, 11 of which with Melvin Gordon, and he was the running back 24. So one was an RB2, one was an RB1. Last year, when both Gordon and Echler played in the same game, Echler average 10.6 points per game, and Melvin Gordon, 21.6. So that tells you that last year they were both startable, that Echler was kind of a flex last year. So my answer to you, Michael, is yes.
Starting point is 00:09:24 I think you should still treat Echler as a starter. This week especially, I think Melvin's much too rich. We don't even know if he's in game shape. Right. We don't know how he's going to be used. Anthony Lynn said he's definitely going to be a part of the game plan. He may even start this game, which that's not super reassuring. Yeah, that's tepid at best.
Starting point is 00:09:41 Austin Echler is. as tepid as I don't know how my spleen is, but not quite. Austin Eccler is PFF's number three ranked running back through four weeks, and he's the number two overall running back in fantasy. He's not going to get phased out. This guy's going to play a lot of downs, and with the lack of wide receiver depth in San Diego, I mean, Los Angeles, I do that every time.
Starting point is 00:09:59 I could see him getting worked in as kind of a slot receiver type player for the Chargers. So I would view both of these guys as RB2s right now, and as we move forward, I think Echler's going to be a low-end RB2, and I think Gordon's going to be a low-end. RB1. So I think that there's a perception that Austin Echler could not step into Melvin Gordon's role because they're just very different. Like Melvin Gordon's a big guy, he's built. Echler is shorter. He's much smaller. But I wanted to just point this out because if you put
Starting point is 00:10:26 Melvin Gordon's first four games of 2018 next to Austin Echler's first four games of this year, they're stunning. Gordon had last year's first four games, 78 touches for 475 total yards and five touchdowns. Eckler's first four games this year, 80 touches, 416. nine total yards, six touchdowns. So Echler has two more touches, six more yards, and one more score. So there's actually exactly the same. So six fewer yards, I apologize. So basically exactly the same to the point that Echler has, in half PPR scoring, 95 fantasy
Starting point is 00:10:57 points through a month, and Melvin Gordon had 93.5, which is 0.4 per game difference. So they've actually been fantasy-wise, very similar. But where that goes to their on-field roles, I agree with you, Craig, that Echler is past catching, is so superior. and they're down so many past catches with Henry and Williams that I agree, they'll have to find time because if they're both of somewhat equal production that they're going to not just go back to, well, Gordon will be on the field 75% of the time. So if you drafted both of these guys, which I did in the league,
Starting point is 00:11:25 I kind of don't love that I'm doing this, but I'm starting both of them. Yeah. Yeah, life is short, whatever. Screw it. You only got one spleen, you know, start them both. I think those should be kidneys. Well, we don't have any filters in this show. D.K., moving on, Bilo Play of the Week.
Starting point is 00:11:41 who's someone that you're buying low after not such a great start? So I think Curtis Samuel, the Panthers going up against the Jaguars, is a good buy-low candidate. He's 4,500 this week. He's still getting a ton of opportunity in that offense. He was third in air yards among receivers in week 451. That's per Josh Hermesmeyers, airyards.com. And that just indicates, like, he's getting a lot of looks.
Starting point is 00:12:06 He's getting valuable looks. He only caught three passes. But I think the connections are going to start to be there. I'm banking on the fact that Kyle Island is not going to fumble three times this week and turn the ball over like he did last week. I think Samuel has a chance to go off. Jags have actually surprisingly given up the ninth most fantasy points to receivers this season. I don't know what Jalen Ramsey's status is for this weekend, but he potentially could miss the game.
Starting point is 00:12:32 Another person is not worth betting on playing. Yeah. So to me, I like kind of all the variables with that. It's Curtis Samuel. So he's just a he's a guy that gets deep and separates. Yeah, and so the Panthers, I mean, DJ Moore was the receiver that we all thought would be their number one going into the year. He had a really good report with Cam Newton, but has really seen his targets go down with Kyle Allen. DJ Moore had 10 targets and then 14 in the first two weeks, but then since then he has seven combined.
Starting point is 00:12:56 So Curtis Samuel seems to have a better rapport with Kyle Allen. I got an honorable mention for this segment. Also, Will Fuller are the Texans against Atlanta, 4,500. It's kind of the same situation as what I mentioned with Deshaun. or with what's his name? Carter Samuel, DeAndre Hopkins? Michael Anthony Peco, Jr. Speaking of which, thank you to Michael
Starting point is 00:13:20 for sending you in the Ringer NFL show Facebook question. If you guys want to send in that question, join the Ringer NFL show Facebook group. Also, who are you talking about? The Andre Hopkins is what I was trying to. The name that was just escaping my muddle brain. Sorry, you're a father. He's a famous player.
Starting point is 00:13:37 My mind is mush. You get a pass when you have an infant child. Thank you. I appreciate that. Anyhow, Will Fuller. Deshawn Watson has just missed him a couple times this year. I think last week he had what should have been like a 75-yard touchdown that just got overthrown. Fuller is 12th in the NFL and air yards. So I think his breakout is coming this week.
Starting point is 00:13:58 And so at 4,500, I think he's a good by-low candidate. I think that's a really good call because Will Fuller's, the beginning of his career, was basically why does Will Fuller catch a touchdown every game? So if anyone's due for a touchdown. Yeah, and Kenny Stills is hobbled, so that, you know, is another reason that potentially he could get more looks this week. Do you have another honorable mention while we're here? Man, did I put three? I have Golden Tate jotted down, apparently.
Starting point is 00:14:25 You just love Bilos. You're so enthusiastic about it. Yeah, it's really fun. Golden Tate coming off of his four-game suspension at the Vikings versus the Vikings, 4,600. I think the reason I put him here is because this is probably as cheap as he's going to be. this season. I think he's going to be a PPR machine. I think he's going to get a lot of targets
Starting point is 00:14:45 underneath from Daniel Jones. Those targets are probably not going to be as valuable as a lot of these deep passes just because he's a dump off and get yards after the catch type of target, I think. But yeah, I think that is, he's going to be a big part of the game plan. So he's
Starting point is 00:15:01 another guy that you could buy low on. Craig, who's your buy low? David Montgomery, running back on the Bears. He's $5,200 bucks. David Montgomery started pretty, pretty, slow. He had a seven touch week one and everybody panicked on that Thursday night game. Since then he's had 19 touches, 16 touches
Starting point is 00:15:15 and 24 touches, but he hasn't really done anything with him. But they're playing in London this week against the Raiders. And I love any stat that has nothing to do with football that makes me... that I think it's going to influence the football game. Like, you know, Jared Goff, not being able to play
Starting point is 00:15:31 in cold weather. Well, the London weather update for Sunday, it's going to be 58 degrees without a 100% chance of precipitation. Oh, boy. The Bears are five-point favorites, and the Raiders are missing Vantes Berfic for the season, rightly so.
Starting point is 00:15:45 They're also missing Khalil Mack who will be playing for the Bears in this game. If anyone's like ever been one of this seven-sac game. I don't know why, but I always had this perception that recently that all the London games are low-scoring. I always remember waking up, you know, because the games are normally at like 6 a.m.,
Starting point is 00:16:01 and you check and it's like 11 to 4 somehow. And so I check the last seven games in London, the average total points scored per game is 36, which is 6.5 points lower than the lowest over under in week 5, which is the Raiders Bears game. I mean, is it that different than any other job? Does anyone get off a plane and be as or more productive? Exactly.
Starting point is 00:16:20 So I just think this is going to be a muddy, gross, ground and pound game, and this is the chance that David Montgomery has to finally break out. Wow, I hope you're right. So your theory is that there will be less points, so he'll do better. It'll be less throwing. There will be less points, but I think this game is going to be like four, you know, Now, here's my guess. I'll just put it out there now.
Starting point is 00:16:40 It's going to be 17 to 10 bears. Dave Montgomery, 100 yards and a touchdown. I want to laugh in your face, but you predicted that all the birds' teams would lose two weeks ago and you nailed that. So I'm never going to doubt you again. I also said that when Melvin Gordon comes back, Austin Eccler would be the number one running back in fantasy
Starting point is 00:16:55 and he's the number two right now. So you're wrong. Well, pretty close. Actually, I've forgotten about that. You deserve a little golf clap for that. Thank you. Yeah, there you go. I don't want to just brush aside.
Starting point is 00:17:07 makes you deserve some credit for that. You're producing this, so you can just, you know, drop that in if you really want. I'll just record my own stuff. I'll record myself doing an impression of you going, great job, Craig. Yeah. I like Craig auditing all his takes from early in the year. Let's keep doing that. Let's make sure to go back and remember what our takes were and then figure out.
Starting point is 00:17:28 No, you only the good ones. You only pull the right ones out. Exactly. Right, right. That's what I mean. All right, we're off the rails. Middle Range Sweet Spot, D.K., who's someone that's you know.
Starting point is 00:17:38 Not too hot, not too cold. Can we just rename this the Goldilocks thing? It's a middle-range sweet spot. Also, I think Sweet Spot is the middle range. Goldilocks, D.K. Yeah, so again, Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals, going up against the Bengals, he's 6,000 this week.
Starting point is 00:17:53 Christian Kirk is going to miss the game, which leaves Fitzgerald as the go-to guy in the slot. It sounds like they brought back Farrow Cooper to play Kirk's role. There's a chance that could have been just coach speak and Andy Isabella is going to get a chance to go in and play in the slot. But right now it sounds like Cliff Kingsbury said that Isabella is going to play on the outside.
Starting point is 00:18:14 So who knows what the hell is going on in the slot other than Larry Fitzgerald is going to get a ton of targets, I think, in this game. The Bengals have been a bad defense. I think these are the two fastest neutral situation offenses in the NFL this year. So there's going to be a million plays. And that just adds up to fantasy scoring. So I think Fitzgerald looks like a really high floor PPR guy this week. I was thinking about how old Larry Fitzgerald is, and then I remember that he's 36, and then I realized you're 36, and then I realized, no, you turned 37 this week, belated happy birthday to you, D.K.
Starting point is 00:18:49 Sorry that I just remembered that. Larry, man, I'm older than Larry Fitzgerald. You're older than Larry Fitzgerald. It's brutal. Brutal, brutal turn of events. He actually, side note, he passed Tony Gonzalez for second all time in receptions, I think, glass. week or the week before. So,
Starting point is 00:19:08 congrats to Larry Fitts. It's a crazy, crazy number. The consummate professional. Yeah, he's the best. Craig, you got a Goldilocks for the week? Yes, my Goldilocks is Marquez Valdez. Scantling on the Packers.
Starting point is 00:19:20 He's playing Dallas. He cost $5,600 bucks on Draft Kings, which is the 20th most expensive wide receiver. He's most likely going to be Aaron Rogers, his number one wide receiver. Devante Adams is out with turf toe and likely to miss the game. Rogers likes Scantling,
Starting point is 00:19:35 per Evan Silva's established the run, MVS has only 33 less air yards than Devante Adams' this season. He's playing Dallas. We actually don't really know what Dallas's secondary is like. Two of their last three games have been against the Redskins, against the Dolphins, and then last week they played Teddy Bridgewater. Can you just name, yeah, name the quarterbacks that
Starting point is 00:19:51 he's played? Yeah, Josh Rosen, Teddy Bridgewater, and Case Keenham. So we know they get Aaron Rogers. And now they get Aaron Rogers. So we'll see. Fire Mark has found his scaling up in your lineup. I love it. All right, now we're going contrarian play of the week because even if you're right and your mainstream right, it doesn't always matter. Like if Craig had said the number one running back
Starting point is 00:20:10 when Melvin Gordon comes back will be Sequin Barclay, not really great play. Got to be contrarian. Exactly. D.K., who's your contrarian play of the week? So Adam Thielen of the Vikings, 6,700 going up against the Giants. I mean, the lowest volume passing game
Starting point is 00:20:25 for the Vikings in the NFL, that doesn't exactly spark confidence. But as Adam Levitton have established the run said, this is a squeaky wheel narrative game. Thielen was complaining about how at some point you're going to have to learn to pass or whatever. He said something like that.
Starting point is 00:20:41 You have to pass deep. Do you guys believe in the squeaky wheel idea where like a player complains so the next game they get the ball more? Do you buy into that at all? It just depends. It depends. But yes.
Starting point is 00:20:51 It's not that simple, but quarterbacks have to play far more politics than most people understand. But it's not quite that one-to-one. Because you're what, like the parent in the room making sure all your kids are happy? Yes. Yes.
Starting point is 00:21:03 Doesn't Kirk Cousins especially Kirk Cousins especially seems like the kind of guy who would be like, I need to pass to him more. In the receiver's defense, imagine if your entire life and job depended solely on whether a co-worker got you the ball or not, like, you know, sometimes you have to say some stuff to Kirk Cousins. But add in the uncertainty with Diggs, which you're right, he'll probably play.
Starting point is 00:21:26 But here's that. I want to elaborate a little more on when you say low passing volume because not even lowest. I want to elaborate on what that means. they're passing the fewest in the league by like, they're passing 24.8 times per game. That's the least, that's, the difference between them and 31 is five passes per game.
Starting point is 00:21:41 They're the only squad who has thrown less than 100 passes who's played four games. The Jets and the Niners are behind them, but they had buys last week. So like, wow. Not only, they're not doing that, only them and the Niners have thrown,
Starting point is 00:21:55 are thrown more, sorry, thrown fewer passes than they have ran the ball. And then even when they are passing is not good, because Kirk Cousins is 32nd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks and ESPN's total QBR rating, which is like better passer rating. And then it's just, it's wild.
Starting point is 00:22:12 The Vikings have been absolutely abysmal, even though they actually are paying Kirk Cousins the second highest cap hit this year of quarterbacks in the league. Love it. Love it. So having said that, why should people play Thielin this week, D.K.? I mean, this is like what I said. It's the squeaky wheel narrative. He's going to get a lot of looks.
Starting point is 00:22:29 And I'm going to ask you again, What's up with the New York Giants defense? That's where I thought you. Honestly, I do not think that... I actually do think the squeaky wheel thing. Like, I think that cousins will... I mean, literally, they're saying they're practicing more this week and they are going to want to throw.
Starting point is 00:22:43 I don't think the squeaky wheel is why it's going to go well. It's because the giant secondary is still really bad. Like, people will think that, oh, well, they picked off Dwayne Haskins, like three times. Genoris Jenkins picked off Dwayne Haskins twice. And people are going to look at it and say, oh, the giant secondary is better. No, there were Washington receivers open basically the whole game against the Giants last week. It was just Dwayne Haskins was a rookie who didn't take practice starting reps into the week, into the week, and then was put into, against the division rival on the road mid game after not practicing as the starter and just didn't see the receivers. But just like the Giants still have as zero people to cover Adam Thielner or Stefan Diggs as they did two weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:23:20 So don't be fooled by like one week. If there was ever a week that these teams can just completely flip-flop from week four to five, it's the Giants defense and the Vikings offense. think it's the perfect situation for Thielen, even if last week hadn't happened. But the only difference is other people aren't going to be targeting him. Yeah. Off topic, real quick. How are you feeling about Danny Dimes this week, Danny? I think Danny Dimes loses to the Patriots in week six and then defeats Tom Brady in the Super Bowl in February. And then...
Starting point is 00:23:49 Is this a Pepsi ad? Wait. Skipping ahead. Skipping a head. He's named the MVP of Super Bowl 54, which is in Roman numerals, LIV. And then he will go to... Because it's in Miami this year. they'll then go to Miami's most famous club, which is called Live,
Starting point is 00:24:04 and he will bring the MVP trophy for Super Bowl LIV to the club LIV. That's what I think about Dandy Dimes. Can you put way too much thought into that? That was weird. Look, you asked me a question of thoughts, man. All right.
Starting point is 00:24:18 I have a contrarian play at the week. I'm just real quick, Alan Robinson on the Bears. Really simple, you know, most people don't want a team's number one receiver when their starting quarterback goes down. I am not the biggest fan of Mitchell Trubisky's play when healthy.
Starting point is 00:24:31 I think Chase Daniels is perfectly serviceable, possibly the better option for the team's short-term future. I certainly think he's the better short-term option for Alan Robinson. I think he looked at him a lot during that Vikings game, and Alan Robinson, despite not having a ton of production this year, is still their most talented and will be their most productive receiver going forward. And I like A. Rob. He had seven targets, caught seven passes for 77 yards last week.
Starting point is 00:24:59 He's still one of the best receivers that I've watched in the past three years. He's amazing. He is so good, Alan Robinson. So Larry Fitz famously has played with bad quarterbacks, consummate professional. I could list them, but then this podcast will be too long. But Alan Robinson is now with Blake Bortles and Mitchell Tribesky.
Starting point is 00:25:14 Chase Daniels is the best quarterback Alan Robinson's ever played with. Isn't it Chase Daniel? It is Chase Daniel. That's how famous he is. No, it's on this pod. Well, he is, is he a Danny? Is he a Danesee? Chase Danny?
Starting point is 00:25:26 Can we invite him on? Chase Danes? If he was a Daniels, no. But he's a Danes. So yeah. You're invited on Chase, Daniel. Craig, do you have a contrarian play of the week? This is only contrarian because I'm the one picking him, but it's Marquis Brown, D.K., your man.
Starting point is 00:25:39 He's been bad the past two weeks. He said six catches the past two weeks. However, he's number two on the bi-low receiver thing on Josh Hermes-Bier-Yards model. I never know how to say that. Josh Hermes-Mire's air-yard's model. he is the number two bi-low receiver of week five, right? First. He's still getting opportunities downfield.
Starting point is 00:26:05 He had a touchdown or he had an end zone target that he just didn't reel in. To just explain what the bi-yo air, the buy-yard air thing, whatever you called it. The air yards, which is just this, you just look at receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. You're going to have a hard time trying to predict what someone does next week. If you look at every target a receiver got instead of just the ones they caught, and you also look how far downfield they went. That's a better number. That's all the air yards thing, and it likes Marquis Brown. Having said that, I can't believe the guy who played 12 snaps in week one hasn't done great in weeks three and four.
Starting point is 00:26:37 Although the targets are there. He's 17th in the league in targets. He's third in the league in air yards. So Steelers give up a lot of big plays. I'm still not sold about the Steelers secondary. I do have one interesting note on this game. The Ravens have run the most plays in the league. The Steelers have run among the fewest plays in the league.
Starting point is 00:26:52 That is a strategy. Mike Tomlin said, I'm going to paraphrase him, that basically he said that, basically he said that, a way to make it easier on a young quarterback like Mason Rudolph is running 50 plays a game instead of 70. He said those plays. He said those. The Ravens run 74 plays a game. I think it'll be really interesting.
Starting point is 00:27:11 Whoever wins this game, I think is really going to be dominating the pace. So which team controls the pace, I think will be very fascinating in this because obviously more plays is more points and more plays is better from Marquis Brown. Also, it's worth noting that in a league I was in, Jalen Samuels was not owned.
Starting point is 00:27:24 Get him immediately if he's not owned. Yeah. So obviously they ran the Wildcat against the Bengals on Monday night football. They only ran seven plays for 46 yards and they got a touchdown. But it's really about what that does to the defense and now they have to prepare for it all week. But an important note is he said after the game Jalen Samuels did that they basically took that out of his playbook from his freshman year at NC State. That's not like a nothing thing to say. They hired his college coach to be their running backs coach.
Starting point is 00:27:52 So they actually have the actual guy who ran an offense. where Jalen Samuels was basically a wildcat high school style quarterback in D1, they have that guy on staff. So they actually do have the, it's not very difficult for them to build out a mini offense for Jalen Samuels. So I highly recommend getting him.
Starting point is 00:28:11 Did you guys get the feeling that they didn't really sell it? Well, like I feel like I knew every time Jalen Samuels was going to keep it and I knew every time he was going to hand it off to James Connor. He did that little flip to James Connor. I want them to get closer and sell it more. I want the ball to be in James Connor's lap. and Jalen Samuels removes it to run.
Starting point is 00:28:28 Like a true read. Yeah, like a true read. But he's like two yards away, and I feel like it's obvious every time. The funny thing about that is you get, those are passes technically. So he had, I think, three completion. So you're getting passing yards
Starting point is 00:28:42 on those little, just whatever they're called. I can't remember what they're called. Just, you know, touch pass. Yeah, touch passes, exactly. So, yeah, that's always kind of interesting. I'll be really interested to see if they actually keep doing that. I kind of doubt they will, but hopefully they do. That would be really cool.
Starting point is 00:29:00 All right, let's run through bargain bin play of the week because Lord knows every time you're filling out a roster and you realize you have like, oh, I have $5,000 left for two spots. So these are the cheapest guys we could find. That would be good. D.K., who's your bargain bin of the week? I like Tyler Eifford this week. Tight end for the Bengals.
Starting point is 00:29:16 3,300, going up against the Cardinals, who cannot stop tight ends for the life of them. I saw this tweet from Ryan McDowell. The Cardinals have now allowed top, no, sorry, they have now allowed four top two games to tight ends this year. Week one, Hawkinson was the tight end two. Week two, Andrews was the tight end one. Week three, Greg Olson was the tight end two. Week four, Will Disley was the tight end two.
Starting point is 00:29:41 So they just cannot stop tight ends. They've got up 32 catches, which is the most, 431 yards the most, and six touchdowns the most to tight ends this year. So, yeah, I think it's just a good matchup for them. Eifford's been like solid. You know, he hasn't been anything remotely what he was earlier in his career where he was a total touchdown machine. But he's been involved in that offense. And I think this is the week to really hope that he kind of goes off. Yeah, not to toot my own horn, but toot, I hope everyone listened to me on Will Dissley last week.
Starting point is 00:30:12 And I concur here. But Craig, this is your floor because I think you are, it's not even that you're driving the bandwagon for Tyler Eifert, but you built it with your bare hands and you're the only one still on it, Tim and his family. Yes, I've built the Noah's Ark and no one came on the boat. It's just me in a giant boat. I kind of, I'm on that boat, though. I've got him. I like him.
Starting point is 00:30:32 You didn't build an ark. It's very spacious. I like it. Spacious. Soakes. I'm sticking with the Bengals. I got my bargain bit this week is, I don't know how to say this. Auden Tate.
Starting point is 00:30:46 Is it Auden or Auddin? I'm going to go with Auddin. Okay. I think Auddin, but I don't know. The combination of not knowing how to say it and my New York accent and just being like already butchering it in its own. It's a disaster. So I apologize to Mr. Tate.
Starting point is 00:30:58 But he was a seventh round out of Florida State in 2018. He's on the Bengals, and the Bengals don't have a lot of receivers left. They have A.J. Green, who is not back from that ankle injury that he suffered playing on a field in Dayton that was, you know, for the NFL's 100th anniversary. That may not have been renovated since then.
Starting point is 00:31:13 You're never going to get over that, I don't think. No, because he might leave the Bengals without playing. I'm not over it. Anyway, he's not playing this week. John Ross put on injured reserve with an injury to his shoulder. Tate has 16, Auden Tate, not Golden Tate, has 16 targets in his last two weeks, which is only one behind Tyler Boyd for the team lead with 17. So he's getting the ball, and the Bengals are playing the Cardinals,
Starting point is 00:31:38 and the Cardinals play at the fastest pace in the NFL by a good bit. They'll take, on average, less than 25 seconds to snap the ball. So there's going to be a lot of plays in this game. You just mention that their defense sucks. It's not just about tight ends. The whole thing is bad. And Andy Dalton, I mean, his career best passing in week one. Like, this is a better season for the Bengals,
Starting point is 00:31:57 despite what we saw on Monday night. So, you know, he's $3,500, which is basically with Draft Kings. I mean, Draft Kings prices guys who don't have jobs at $3,000. So, like, $3,000 on draft Kings. You're $3,000. There you go. You can get Craig, Holbrook. Horlebrook.
Starting point is 00:32:13 How do you say your last name? Horlebrook? Horlebroke. Horlebeck. Horlebeck. Horlebeck. You know, we laugh, but, I don't know, everyone listening was probably one way.
Starting point is 00:32:23 I never actually said it out loud. Sorry. There are so many people at this company who have on Mike screwed up my last name. I should make a compilation out of it. Horalbeck. I got it. Good job. It's that family guy joke?
Starting point is 00:32:34 It's like, oh, I've never said it out loud. This whole podcast is ruined. Yes, yeah, exactly. Unbelievable. What the hell were we talking about? Tyler Eifer. Yeah, Auden Tate. He's good.
Starting point is 00:32:45 I was going to say something about Tate. One of the reasons I think that he's kind of emerged in that offense over the last few weeks. Obviously, the injury situation is the biggest reason. But they moved him to the Z receiver spot in their offense, which is off the line of scrimmage. He can kind of move around. He can go into the side. Sort of a hybrid between a slot receiver and an outside receiver. And he took over the Z spot for John Ross, I think two games ago.
Starting point is 00:33:10 And we saw Ross's production plummet and his production go up. That's obviously a big, I guess, go-to position in their offense. Who could have predicted that John Ross's production would plummet? Yeah. Yeah, you got it. You called it. Just wanted to hear it. Yeah, I mean, you're going to take the W on that. I'm going to take the W on Marquise Brown eventually.
Starting point is 00:33:29 I'm just going to call that. You can take the W on John Ross, though. I'll take it. All right, let's move on. We're going to build our Drafking's lineup real quick. We got one lineup, it's a PPR format, and we're going to take some players we mentioned earlier, some we have not, and we're going to just run through the lineup we built.
Starting point is 00:33:45 So, Craig, start us off. At quarterback, we're doing Matt Ryan against Houston. Do I'm going to go deeper? I would love for you to go on. Okay. Tell me about this. Sure. This game shootout potential, which is great for daily fantasy.
Starting point is 00:33:58 That's what you're looking for. Right now, Matt Ryan's the QB7. He's thrown for almost 300 yards in every single game. He had no touchdowns last week, which kind of screwed up his totals. I think he was the QB4 before the Titans game where he threw for almost 400 yards, but didn't have a touchdown. And he's currently priced as the QB9. So we just saw a little bit of value there and jumped on it. I love that.
Starting point is 00:34:16 Our running back, so we got Matt Ryan, a quarterback. We have our first running back is Dalvin Cook against the Giants. D.K. mentioned this earlier. Dalvin Cook, good. Giants, bad. Next one. David Johnson against the Bengals. D.K. won't elaborate a little on David Johnson. Yeah, I like David Johnson in this spot, number one, like we've talked about, the Bengals' defense has just been bad. We saw them get just chewed up last week by the Steelers.
Starting point is 00:34:40 Additionally, Johnson's been used as a receiver a lot in that offense. I mean, he's been lining up kind of all over. They've been looking at him on vertical routes a little bit, which there's not many vertical routes in this offense right now in the Arizona offense and he's been kind of a guy that's still being utilized in that way. I saw this tweet from NFL.com's grand barfield. David Johnson is currently outscoring these receivers
Starting point is 00:35:02 with his receiving stats alone. Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen, Juju Smith-Schuster, Calvin Ridley, and Stefan Diggs. So, yeah, just based on his receiving potential production alone, I like him along this spot. So that's Matt Ryan, a quarterback,
Starting point is 00:35:18 Dalvin Cook, and David Johnson at running back. receiver. We got Julio Jones against Houston. He's like 100 bucks cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins, but I think the difference maker for us was just having the stack with Matt Ryan and Matt Ryan thrown for 300 yards in every game. Julio, not a great week last week, but we think he bounces back. And then next receiver, we also got Marquise Brown, who Craig just mentioned the Ravens, who love Marquise Brown. D.K. does. D.K. loves Marquise Brown. Yeah. So hopefully the Ravens can get all those big plays. And we went with Aud and Tate at receiver, our beloved, because he's cheap
Starting point is 00:35:50 and we think he can score a touchdown. Ditto or tie it in. We went with Tyler Eifford against the Cardinals, so we're rolling with the Bengals this week. Pray for us. Stars and Scrubs, hardcore. Hardcore stars and scrubs. Emphasis on the scrubs.
Starting point is 00:36:04 This is like Jady and Turk scrubs. D.K., we flex Cortin Sutton. You want to elaborate on that? They're playing the Chargers. Yeah, Sutton's been really good so far this year. I mean, he's a breakout candidate this season. I wrote about him. this week.
Starting point is 00:36:20 It's coming out on Friday. I just really like him. I think he's looked really, really good. He's been physical. He's used his size. He's been, his route running is really improved. He's got 22 passes this year.
Starting point is 00:36:32 Team I 309 yards. He has two touchdowns, no drops. You don't get fantasy points for this, but he has 18 first downs, which is his fourth in the NFL. So that just tells me that he's a go-to guy, both in the red zone and on third downs.
Starting point is 00:36:45 I just think Flacco trusts him. And going up against the Chargers, It's a tough matchup, obviously. The Chargers have a good defense, but I just like his potential this week. I like that Flacco has really been looking to him a lot, and I think he's a really good player. Another team that has a good defense, the Tennessee Titans, and that's who we're rolling with a defense. Titans are playing against, we don't know whether it's Josh Allen or Matt Barkley. Quite frankly, it might not matter.
Starting point is 00:37:10 The bills have the most turnovers in the league, and we want a defense that can score a couple touchdowns, and we're rolling with the Titans for right now. I like those odds. We'll see, there's a little question about whether Cam Wake plays. Obviously, we'd prefer Cam Wake to play if we're one with the Titans. So monitor that if you think about the Titans defense. But there we go. I actually did one last note in Broncos Chargers.
Starting point is 00:37:31 There's 12 games on Sunday afternoon. 10 of them are at 1 p.m. I know. Why does this happen? So it's because Cowboys Packers are playing at 425, and that's the de facto Sunday night football. They want the entire country to tune into Packers Cowboys. But the hilarious thing is the only game they didn't move was Broncos Chargers
Starting point is 00:37:50 because I think they're tacitly saying is No one's gonna watch that No one's gonna watch that. It's like James Hart, it's like the Rockets in the lane They're just like everyone get out of the way of James That's what they're doing for Packers Cowboys So there you go.
Starting point is 00:38:03 That's what I got. Sorry Chargers. Sorry Broncos. I'm sorry to Broncos fans. Chargers fans. I'd like to hear something from you just to know you're okay. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, Danny. Thank you to Jim.
Starting point is 00:38:15 our sunshine. Thank you to everyone for listening. Best of luck this week. We'll see you guys next week. Long live Danny Dimes.

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