The Ringer NFL Show - Mid-Tier Quarterbacks in Make-or-Break Seasons

Episode Date: August 23, 2022

Jason and Austin examine some of the QBs in the middle of their rankings who may be operating under short leashes in the upcoming season. First they quickly touch on the "Dangerously Mid-Tier" group and talk about if Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, or Derek Carr have received enough help from their respective organizations to make an elite jump. Next, they discuss the QBs at the "Flashy Good or Flashy Terrible" level like Kyler Murray (12:43), Jalen Hurts( 17:40), and Matt Ryan (21:33), and ponder if they'll be able to live up their lofty reputations this year. They end the pod by debating if quarterbacks like Daniel Jones (28:00), Jared Goff (30:50), Carson Wentz,(33:30) Baker Mayfield(36:07), and Jameis Winston (38:49) are able to transcend their criticisms and elevate their themselves above "Mostly Bad, Sometimes Good" status. Hosts: Jason Goff and Austin Gayle Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Production Assistance: Chris Sutton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Call me sentimental, but to me, the most joyful moment in sports is the soccer goal. And when that goal happens at the World Cup, well, it's pretty good. I'm Brian Phillips. With the 2022 Men's World Cup approaching, I'm making a podcast called 22 goals on the Ringer Podcast Network. It's about 22 of the most fire emoji goals in the history of the tournament. We're going to have so much fun. Welcome in to the Ringer NFL show. The Austin Gale Jason Golf version

I want to hear more about this DC trip You know you get some phone posits You get some mumbo sauce Whatever the hell it is they eat out there Like what would you would you really do in DC Austin Went out to DC to meet some ringer people actually Steve Ruiz lives out there One of the writers here and then also Danny Hyphitz

Had some had some dinners with them I fix as the man dude It was a lot of fun and I think I spent like a full day On the mall like going from like Memorial to Memorial and I do think that it's really cool seeing the effort we've put into historically, like, building these, like, essentially, like, shrines for these people. But it also gets, like, really weird. It's like in the Abraham Lincoln Memorial, it says, like, this temple is dedicated to him and just feels a little worshipy to me.

I don't know. I kind of got weird out by some of the historical stuff. But it was overall. It's okay. It was cool. It was cool. It was cool. Yeah. We've been engaging some weird shit in this country. And sometimes it's okay to feel like, hey, is this weird to anybody else? You know? Very true.

Yeah. So it's okay. You know, there's a lot of weird shit going on in D.C. But shout out to D.C. My man Clinton Yates and a bunch of people I know and love are from the nation's capital. So shout out to your D.C. trip. Next time, you know, I don't get invited to these ringer things. You know, they keep me in my little corner hand in the city of Chicago and they kick it on their own. So we are here to discuss rankings.

We are here to discuss tears. We are here to put together lists and debate them or laugh at them or cry about them. if you're talking about it from a Bears fan perspective. So, Austin, what's this week's edition entail? What do we got loaded up for the people on this episode? I think we might actually be crying on this episode because I put together a list and kind of like a tiered list, tiered ranking of the quarterbacks or quarterback situations in the NFL.

And I think the bottom of the barrel is very understood, right? It's like this whole slew of second year quarterbacks where, you know, a lot of them are unproven. That's Trevor Lawrence, Mack Jones, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Davis Mills, and then the really dire straight situation of the Marcos Marriota, Desmond Ritter, you know, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, where they're probably at the bottom of the barrel, Drew Locke, Gino Smith. At the top, there's not a lot of discussion, right?

You could argue Joe Burrell over Justin Herbert or where does Lamar Jackson fit in. You know who the top 10 quarterbacks are in the NFL. Where I find the conversation most interesting and probably where the most tiers are, is this middle section where you have, where does Kirk Cousins rank, right? And how good is Kyloa, how good is Tua, these quarterbacks where teams have to make fundamental decisions on their future with a lot of these names soon, right? I think this upcoming seasons could be make or break seasons for a lot of these guys that are in that 11 to 20 tier among quarterbacks in the NFL. Yeah. And of course, we always, you know, none of this isn't a vacuum, right?

Like we got to figure out how many offensive coordinators, which offensive coordinator have you been on? And here in the city of Chicago, kids are already on his second in two years. And if Lou Gezzi does anything, then he'll probably be on his third and four years, right? When Luke gets he takes a job after showing and proving that he could do the offensive game planning and play calling after being a quarterback's coach in Green Bay. So the head coach's contract clock, how that determines, you know, how long or short the leash is. You know, guys like Tuotanga Vialoa. What have they put around you? And how much does that allow, you know, for leash, right?

Like this year is a make-a-break year for Tuotanga-a-Li-Lo and a lot of people's eyes because of the maturation of Jalen Waddle and, of course, the acquisition of Tyreek Hill and, you know, leave it up to the conspiracy theorist and me. You know, I feel like the NFL is like, hey, Miami, for attempting to tank games and actually verbalizing such, we're going to make you spend all of your cat money and go out there and actually get some playmakers to put around to Atah-Bialoa. So the make-a-break part of it is never truly in a vacuum. So where do we want to start in terms of a name that you can throw out there so we can converse and make sure that that fan base is not happy about us discussing their quarterback situation? I think how you set that up initially really opens up to what I call the dangerously mid-tier of quarterbacks. Quarterback 11, 12, and 13 on my list is Kirk Cousins on the Minnesota Vikings, Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders and Ryan Tannelhead of Tennessee Titans.

And how you started that was you have to factor in how many office. coordinators they have and they're supporting cast and the situation that they're in. And I think with all three of those quarterbacks, you know, they started on different, you know, they started in like wildly different situations than where they are now. Kirk Cousins with the Washington, you know, football team, you know, a few years ago had like multiple offensive coordinators, eventually signs of the Minnesota Vikings, this monster deal. And now is in a situation where they're expecting him to compete for Super Bowls with a really good receiving core and improving offensive line. Ryan Tannahill in Miami was a disaster.

Ryan Tanahill and Tennessee is a fringe top 10 quarterback. Derek Carr with Bill Musgrave, John Gruden, Todd Downing, this slew of offensive coordinators was an up and down player and now a real opportunity with Josh McDaniels to be a top 10 quarterback as well. I do think situation matters so much for these guys. And to enter this tier where you are a fringe top 10 quarterback, you have to survive that initial part of your career where you aren't maybe a top end pick. Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr, I think both second or third round picks. And you aren't this top pick that is everyone's throwing resources at you improve. And now they're in these situations where can they break, can they break into this top 10 and support teams that can go on deep postseason runs? Whenever I look at these kinds of quarterbacks, Austin, I think, are you dependent on a running game, right?

And nowadays in the NFL, you really don't even have to have a running game to effectively pass the ball and play action situations. So guys like Ryan Tannenhill, guys like Kirk Cousins. I mean, we got introduced to Kurt Cousins because he was RG3's backup. And everybody's like, hey, put the guy, put the other guy in the game. when that guy's hurt. And then he showed us that he could play a little bit. He goes to Minnesota, and he's effectively been the guy that you're just waiting to make the big mistake in the big game.

You know, he will Ryan Fitzpatrick your head off for 300-yard games and, you know, two or three touchdown game. But then prime time and also in the playoffs, he's shown that there are limiting factors to his game. So how much of a running game do you need at all times? What kind of wide receiver help have you had? You go from Stefan Diggas to now Justin Jefferson and, of course, all the slew of receivers to compliment that. Now, with Mike Zimmer no longer being there and the emphasis being off of the defensive side of the football,

I don't know that Kirk Cousins is going to be any different than he's always been. And as far as Ryan Tannahill is concerned, you know, Derek Henry and A.J. Brown and the way that offense has been coached and how Mike Rable has done things, you know, another defensive-minded head coach. if you ask Ryan Tannenhill to drop back 35, 40 times in a playoff game, do you think you can win that game? Especially against, you know, you're facing better pitching, right? The baseball analogy, you're not facing fours and fives in the playoffs. You're facing aces and number two starters when it comes to defenses. So I think Ryan Tannenhill and Kirk Cousins are in that area like you just mentioned

and you perfectly put them in this dangerously mid-tier because if you put all your hopes in them, then you might get let down. but there are going to be times where those two guys look like world beaters. And then there's Derek Carr, right? Derek Carr, what has he got, the most fourth quarter comeback since he's into the league and all this other stuff? And I always ask, like, why were you behind? Right?

Like, were you behind because of your mistakes or because of your lack of going down the field, which has been the knock on Derek for a while? So the dangerously midsection exactly, it sounds exactly like it is. Are these guys riding or these guys driving? Do you win with them or do you win because of them? And I think that's why they're in this section. You're 100% right. I think these are guys that are categorically quarterbacks that need help.

But when they have it, they can be great. You know, Kirk Cousins, I think, is coming off a career season. 33 touchdowns, only seven interceptions, highest PFF grade of any year of his career. And he's a player, too, that didn't even really start in Washington for the first three years of his career and then has really improved in his time in Minnesota. And it's because he's had help, right? Offensive line has improved. the receiving court, Justin Jefferson, breaking records last year. I think Kirk Cousins, when he has help, is a fringe top 10 quarterback.

Now, it's so difficult, right, in today's NFL with the salary cap to maintain help. It's easier said than done, having a quarterback on a second or third contract and having enough resources to really build around him. You have to hit in the draft, which obviously Minnesota Vikings did with Justin Jefferson right now on Fandle, the favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards. And with Derek Carr, at his best in 2016, right, with Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, a top three offensive line in the NFL. He gets hurt on Christmas Eve in a blowout win against Indianapolis Colts.

Mark Davis, the owner was like, why are we throwing the ball? Cost them, honestly, what I thought could have been a deep post he's run. And since it's really struggled through an influx of different coaches and coordinators and different talent, they lose Khalil Mack, they lose Amar, they lose Michael Crabtee. That offensive line is nowhere what it was in 2016 and you see him go down. I don't think his ability and I don't think is that far off. And I don't think what he could be is that far off from Matthew Stafford. Do you think about his days in Detroit?

He has a lot of comeback wins to himself, right? Playing for really bad Detroit Lions teams. He goes to Los Angeles Rams for one year, wins the Super Bowl. Now, I'm not saying Derek Carr is better than or necessarily in the same tier as Matthew Stafford, because we haven't seen that type of play. But it's not that crazy to think that Derek Carr in an ideal situation or an improved situation with the Sean McVeigh, you know, with the supporting cast that Matthew Stafford had last year, that he has significant success.

Super Bowl success, maybe not, but significant. success. And with Tannahill, I've always felt that and why he's 13th, behind Kurt Cousins, behind Derek Carr in this dangerously mid-tier, is not only does he need personnel help, right? He needs an A.J. Brown. He needs a Derek Henry. He needs a top flight offensive line and offensive mine on the sideline. He also, I think, needs help schematically. Like, he's a player that is objectively better on play action, someone that is not one of the best quarterbacks in EPA per play or CPO when looking at standard dropbacks when on pressure. And I think for him, this year is going to be a massive test.

I think two years left on his deal. They're committed to him, at least for the next two seasons. But Todd Downing, a former offensive coordinator with the Las Vegas Raiders, completely blundered that situation, is now having an opportunity call plays in Tennessee. I worry about this offense without AJ Round. I worry about this offense with Derek Henry coming off a major injury. And I worry about this offense under Todd Downing.

It's a lot of change for a quarterback that why he's in this year is not really ready for a lot of downgrades at different positions. I think the Tennessee Titans is going to take a step back, because I think they've been relying on it, like you mentioned, a running game and a defense and play action passing for the last two or three years. And they've gotten ridiculously awesome production, right? You've gotten some really, really good win totals out of this. And Mike Vrable has kind of cemented himself as, okay, this is a former player who can't coach and is going to be around. And if this thing doesn't work out in Tennessee down the line, he's going to get himself

another job because of what he's done. I just also worry that they've played things so close, like there's a razor's edge in terms of margin for error because of how well that defense has had to play. You know, they don't run around blowing out a lot of teams, especially with that philosophy. So, you know, with what happens on the defensive side of the football and injuries and depth being an issue sometimes, do you have an offense? And more importantly, do you have a lead signal call that is going to be able to steal some games that you shouldn't win? You know, Tennessee Titans aren't sneaking up on anybody anymore. And players have gone different places.

Like you mentioned, AJ Brown and Derek. Henry coming off the knee injury. So I think the Titans going to take a step back this year because I think there's only so many times you could, you know, get that genie to pop out that lamp in terms of that offense running the way it's run over the last couple of years. At some point, those hits on Derek Henry have to add up. At some point, the loss of A.J. Brown has to, and, you know, Corey Davis before that, like they've put draft capital into that Y receiver position. And now that Ryan Tannenhill, you know, all the focus is on him because it should be on your quarterback. This is definitely one of those make-a-break type of years. All right, so we've gone from

dangerously mid, the 11, 12, and 13 spots, and you know, you can cover your top 10 at home any way you want to. We all know the names, right? We know Brady. We know Rogers. We know Alan. We know Herbert. We know Burrow. We know Russell and Dak and all those boys. But we get from the dangerously mid-tier, Austin, to now the who knows, flashy good and flashy terrible. Ah, it sounds like, and, you know, my former dating life right here, boy. 14 through 17, we've got Kyler Murray, the Arizona Cardinals, Jalen Hertz of the Philadelphia Eagles, Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts, which I think because of the description might be in that dangerously midsection,

but also because of where he is, he falls down into this 14 through 17 realm. And a guy that we mentioned at the top of the pod, to a Tonga Vaila low at 17. So let's start with Kylea Murray. He signs the weirdest contract in NFL quarterbacking history. And then they take the stipulation out of his contract that you got to go home and do your homework, son. DeAndre Hopkins, what they've done on the offensive side of the football since he's been there. Kyle Murray is one of the better athletes in all of football. He's got a howitzer for an arm.

I mean, the baseball background, you can see it in terms of the arm angles he could throw from. But sometimes he's got a little bit of a double agent in him. And sometimes he'll get that rock up. And I worry because the expectations for a number one pick and for a Heisman trophy winner, seemingly like there is a progression to fulfilling them. But this is the kind of year where it's like, all right, we've seen it now and all the pressure that's on your play caller, on your head coach and Cliff Kingsbury. What do you think Kyle and Murray has to be this year so that he is in that top 10 conversation and cemented as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL? What's interesting, and I don't know how many people have this opinion of Kyler Murray and his situation in Arizona, but I do think that he is a bit limited from a production standpoint in this Cliff Kingsbury-led offense. And I think part of that is the personnel decisions that Zachheim has made and bringing in a lot of failed receivers.

Andy Isabella, a second round pick out of UMass has not been the player that they hoped. Christian Kirk no longer with this football team, AJ Green, retreading those tires more difficult than they like. And D'Andre Hopkins, his usage is absolutely bizarre to me in this Cliff Kingsbury offense. No receiver over the last two years has played more than 90% of their routes at the same position than D'Andrey Hopkins. Like, he is only left wide receiver in this offense and that lack of creativity, that lack of change of pace to his usage has allowed defenses to catch on. And it's allowed defenses to really limit him later in seasons. And we all know about the Cliff Kingsbury curse that is him struggling late in seasons. and a lot of people put that blame on Kyla Murray because he still is on, you know, formerly was on this rookie contract, a young player in the NFL.

What is he? What is he not? I put him in this, who knows, flashy good, flashy terrible tier. I think it's more who knows, what can Kyle and Murray be outside of this offense. He has one of the best arms in the NFL. Some of the best athleticism in the NFL at this position. I don't think he's leverage to that skill set. Last year, ranked 20th and percentage of his yards coming before the catch, so air yards, essentially. He should be moving the ball downfield. His average depth of target should be downfield with how good. good his arm talent is. And it's just consistently screens and stuff near the line of scrimmage that I do think limits his production. You look over the past two years right on the fringe of 4,000 passing guard each season, very similar average at the target, very similar completion percentage. In this offense, I think he's capped. I think he's capped in this offense for how good he can be. And I think Cliff Kingsbury, at a certain point, you want to talk about make or break seasons.

This has to be it. Too good of a team. Too good of a football team. And you can maybe make the DeAndre Hopkins excuse. But I don't think it's enough to not be making deep, postseason runs. It's too good of a quarterback. They obviously invested a ton of money in him this offseason. I think they've added so much talent defensively, Isaiah Simmons, Cameron Thomas at Sandy O State. They've invested a lot of capital to bring in players to make this a deep playoff team. I think the limiting factor has been and will continue to be Cliff Kingsbury until we see more creativity in this offense. So I think Carla Murray, of any of these quarterbacks in this second tier we discussed, this 14 through 17, has a legit opportunity to change out people view him in a new

offense or if Cliff does zag a bit to what has been a really underwhelming zig in his tenure as a head coach in the NFL. I look at the roster and they got a bunch of, you know, waterbug type wide receivers. A lot of guys who can in two-way go dudes, guys you can throw in a slot and who could make some noise after, you know, a short catch taking it for a long game. I like the fact they brought Zach Gertz in because they don't have a whole bunch of go up and get it guys. So why not have a big body at the tight end position who has done this? He's called a hundred pass. You know, multiple seasons in Philadelphia and give your quarterback another outlet, another option. So you won't have the playoff embarrassment like they had, especially on the offensive end.

Going from Kyle Murray to a guy who there is a whole, whole heeping boatload of expectations when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles. I have seen the Philadelphia Eagles picked as NFC championship participants. I've seen dark horse sleeper Super Bowl picks throwing on the Philadelphia Eagles. I love AJ Brown as much as the next man, but people think that this Philadelphia Eagles team could take that next step. Jalen Hertz, we've seen it, whether it be Alabama or Oklahoma, the dude gets into a system, gets into a program, figures it out. His limitations are talked about until the winning starts. Do you think that this is the beginning of that, okay, we don't have to talk about the quarterback position anymore. Jalen Hertz is cemented? Or do you,

think that the Philadelphia Eagles are going to find out, like, you know, back in the days when we used to watch the Texans and the Bengals, right, in that first AFC wildcard game at like 11 a.m. on a Saturday. Like, all right, this is a match shop, Andy Dalton game. And then we get the chance to watch the quarterbacks who aren't the limiting factors for their teams. Do you think Jalen Hertz takes that jump this year? Or do you think that there's going to still be a wait and see mode because of the, you know, some of the physical limitations that people say he has in terms of his throwing motion? I do think that he takes a jump. I don't think it'll be that jump to where we're talking about him as a top 12, top 12, top 10 quarterback.

But I think of any player on this list where I receive the most criticism is as high as I have, Jalen Hertz. I think a lot of that is factoring in situation, right? He's a cost control quarterback on a rookie contract in a position now with a really good head coach, a really good offensive roster, a good offensive line that has an opportunity now, a very low risk opportunity to make it or break it, right? It's unlike the Daniel Jones situation in New York, where they hitched their wagon to him with a highly, you know, highly invested first round pick.

And now they haven't been able to build around him. And they never really have found out with Daniel Jones, how good is he? Same with the Sam Darnold experiment that everyone wants to try. The Carson-Wence experiment, Baker-Mafield, James Winston, people feel that they don't know what he could be. Jailen Hertz right now has this perfect opportunity. And the Philadelphia Eagles in this situation have this perfect opportunity to evaluate a quarterback at a low investment, cost-controlled rookie contract, and Jailen Hertz, who has some talent. Great athleticism. I think his accuracy is still a concern.

And you mentioned the arm motion, but can get it done. And I think can't get it done in this offense. I think he of any quarterback on this list. will be the most polarizing. I think he has the most opportunity to go up, the most opportunity to go down. I believe in his talent. I believe in this offense.

And I'm a huge fan of Nick Siriani. He's a guy I've talked with a ton at the Combine this past year. And just to hear his approach to team building, his approach to the fourth down conversation and how advanced he wants to be with putting Jill and Hertz in a position to succeed and how he wants to approach analytics and leveraging that and roster building and decision making on the sideline. I think this Philadelphia Eagles team is legit.

I remember right after the draft when they made the trade for AJ Brown, They bring in Jordan Davis. I said, you should be betting the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East at plus 275. That number right now is plus 170. A lot of money is being poured on the Philadelphia Eagles and their prospects to win the NFC East. A lot of people see them as this not necessarily dark horse playoff team, but a team that can make the playoffs. And Bandil has their pricing at plus 118. So I do think that this Philadelphia Eagles is being a little bit slept on.

And that's some opinions on Jalen Hertz, some opinions on this defense, maybe not rebounding. So I feel good about him. And he has got a lot to prove this upcoming season, but at least isn't an ideal situation to do it. Yeah, when we talk about the weapons, especially around our young quarterbacks. Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, of course, the A.J. Brown acquisition, Devante Smith out of Alabama.

So he's got that, you know, that recognition, that familiarity in terms of coming out of the same kind of system as Devante. So, yeah, as you mentioned, if the money's going there, that means people are enthused about what the Philadelphia Eagles have to offer this year. And, of course, the defensive side of the football, when you drive guys like Jordan Davis and some of the talent they put together on that side, it is not a dumb bet to think that this team is the best team in that division, especially with some of the losses that Cowboys have undergone in the last year.

So, all right, a guy who I am fond of, and I was, you know, I do this every once in a while, Austin, I hitch my wagon dudes who everybody hates and hope that they do rebound and it will make me look smarter. Now, more times than not, these people never rebound and I look like an idiot. So shout out to Ben Simmons for not making that happen this year on the basketball side of things. And on the football side of things, a guy who I covered in Atlanta for a couple of years, Matt Ryan. It's a former MVP of the league, no matter how much you want to argue.

And also, a guy who has just been good enough to have himself a damn near, like, awesome career, but not good enough to win the big games. It doesn't make the plays that separate you in terms of quarterback. We go back to, you know, the blown lead in the Super Bowl and, you know, Kyle Shanahan's doing or, you know, Matt Ryan's doing, all those things. Now he finds himself in Indianapolis where the last three years has been, you know, a rotating door of quarterbacks, whether it be Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz. Now it's Matt Ryan. The Indianapolis coach seemed like a press play team, right? They've got what they need on defense with Kenny Moore and Shaq Leonard and all those dudes.

They lose Matt Eberflue. So the defense has been humming low. enough that you can just throw another signal another play caller in there and have that defense do what it needs to do but on the offensive side of the field you know fantasy darling and Jonathan Taylor right a receiving core that is respectable

Matt Ryan is he too long in the tooth to make a huge difference and if not what kind of difference should he make for the Indianapolis Colts this year I think of any team this off season that I'm fading versus the public and right now the Indianapolis Colts minus 135 to win the AFC South and Titans are number two in that division at

plus 170. I think it is the Indianapolis calls. And I think it's because there are too many question marks with Matt Ryan. I think there's too many question marks on defense. You know, Shaq Leonard, you know, currently working through an injury. We don't know if he'll be back for week one. Their offensive line, specifically at offensive tackle,

has some competition now outside of Braden Smith. I think Matt Pryor might be winning that job at left tackle. But I worry about that. I worry about the question marks along the offensive line and worry about the injury question marks on defense, specifically with Shaq Leonard. And then there's receiving court, I do think, is respectable. but also one-trick pony in a way.

And that Michael Pittman Jr., the guy who was expected to lead this team in receiving yards, is a big-bodied yak type that can catch anything thrown his way, but isn't necessarily a burner. And Alec Pierce, who he does have this flying speed that's coming out of Cincinnati, I think he's limited as a route runner and another big-bodied receiver. That second-round pick out of Cincinnati, I don't think he's going to hit the ground in a full sprint. I think it's going to take time for him to develop some of the nuances of the position. And then Paris Campbell has been this breakout candidate.

it for the last three years. We're hoping and praying, hoping and praying he can stay healthy. So factor in all those question marks. And the fact that it is is Matt Ryan is longer in the tooth. And why he's not in the dangerously mid tier with cousins, Carr and Tannenhill is that I think his arm has fallen off enough to where he can't make the throws that he could make before. And when you have a quarterback that wasn't, you know, maybe three, four, five years ago was that top 10 player no longer that. I do think I'd rather have Kyle and Murray. I'd rather have Jalen Hertz. You know, I'd rather have those quarterbacks and those situations, those contracts specifically than Matt Ryan because not only is he a stopgap solution for this Indianapolis

Colts team, I just don't know how long that cap will mean, right? I think this, I think the Indianapolis Colts very well could be looking at quarterback again the following year. And, you know, I've said this before. I think the worst thing in the NFL is a good quarterback. You want a great one or you want a terrible one. You know, a good quarterback keeps you in purgatory. A good quarterback keeps you from ever really taking this big leap on another player in the draft or, you know, breaking the bank for Matthew Stafford. And when you recognize teams that, that specifically the San Francisco 49ers and the last San Andreas Rams in recent years, 49ers said, yeah, we have a good quarterback, Jimmy Garoppel.

But we want a great one. They trade two, three first round picks to go get Trey Lance, the Rams. We think we have a good quarterback in Jared Galfa, a guy that's taking us to a Super Bowl. But we're going to trade the future for Matthew Stafford because we want a great one. And I think with the Indianapolis Colts, they've gone from good quarterback to good quarterback to good quarterback with talented roster, a good head coach. I know Frank Wright loves Matt Ryan and is really respected in this league. But staying in purgatory doesn't win you a second.

Super Bowl. Does it keep fans in the stands? Does it keep you from ever bottoming out as a franchise? Yes, but I don't think it ever kind of takes you to the next step. So I worry that Matt Ryan keeps the Colts in this good tier. I'm not even all that confident that they win the AFC South. And just an unfortunate situation because I don't think they'll ever be a team that fully resets. And one that desperately needs to reset at the valuable positions. Are they talented at low value positions? Yes. Jonathan Taylor running back. Into your offensive line, Quint Nelson, one of the best in the league. Still, low value. position. Jack Leonard, offball linebacker, not as coveted. They need corners. They need receivers.

They need a QB to really be this team that they want them to be. I love that. Low value positions. I'm going to use that on the full go one of these days. Yeah. And shout out to Matt Ryan, you know, aka hit as he throws at the end of that Atlanta. All right. The final tier, 18 through 22, because we're not going to talk about the young kids who haven't gotten their feet wet and we can't call them bad just as yet, but we kind of know they're bad. I think we know some of those dudes running around the NFL right now. Mostly bad, sometimes good. This is 18 through 22.

You got five names here. I want to gauge which one of these names you think is going to have the best season, maybe jump up into that. Who knows? Flashy good and flashy terrible. Maybe these guys are already in that tier, too, and it should be a larger tier. It should be like a super conference of bad at the bottom of this list here.

All right, so we got James Winston at 18. the New Orleans Saints. We got Baker Mayfield at 19th, the Carolina Panthers. 20. We got Carson Wiss, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts, now of the Washington commanders. 21, my cousin, my brother from another Jared Gough, over there with the Detroit Lions. And 22, Daniel Jones of the New York Giants. I think this is the last time we're going to have to say Daniel Jones's name when we're talking about starting quarterbacks. I shout out to Dave Gettleman and all the people who believed. But let's start with Daniel Jones. Let's start with the New York contingent.

The man, the man coming into the NFL was put behind the eight ball because you trade up. You do everything you have to do. You skip over names that people thought were the consensus best quarterbacks in the draft. You go get Daniel Jones. He's had a turnover problem since he's got to the NFL. He's also been hurt. How, if at all, does this thing turn around? I mean, is Kenny Galladay going to have to save the day?

like what's happening here with the Daniel Jones situation and will the New York Giants be in the market for a quarterback at the end of this season? The bottom line is that I think all Giants fans hope it doesn't turn around, right? I think worst case scenario is that Daniel Jones is average this year and they continue. They didn't pick up his fifth year because they don't believe in his long-term success, but he's still going to be the starting quarterback this year. And if he's average and pushes him out of this opportunity to go get a CJ Stroud to go get a Bryce Young, it's an unfortunate situation for Giants fans that want to star at this

position. I think he's a perfect example of this thought that I have around teams bust, not players, more often than not. And when you trade up for Daniel Jones and you set this expectation for him to be the guy in such a competitive market where a lot of people viewed him as this second third round player, you just put him in an unwinnable situation. Does he have tools? Does he have traits that could be developed into a starting caliber quarterback? Absolutely. I think his pocket presence is scary in that he does not waver under duress. Now, that gets him in trouble and that often leads to a lot of the fumbles that he's had. But it's still impressive to see how much he's willing to stand in the pocket, take hits and push the ball

down field. He's generally accurate, has a good arm, it has good athleticism. He just doesn't have enough of the other things you need, right, in terms of decision making and limiting turnovers to be a legit, you know, top 15, top 10 quarterback in this league. And when you draft a player as they did and put these expectations on him as they did, he has to be that. And him having to be that through all of the disastrous coaching changes that went through with the New York Giants. I just don't think it was ever going to work. And they failed to build around him, right? They failed to add a receiving court that really could push them, you know, to the next level.

They failed to add to the offensive line quickly enough to put him in a position to succeed where he wasn't under constant duress. This is, in my opinion, you know, the last chance Daniel Joan has to stick it out as a starting quarterback in this league. I don't imagine him being in that Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold tier of QBs where people are retreading the time. tires and seeing if they can win with Daniel Jones. I do think that this is his last season.

And I don't think there's enough there for him to overcome that. I think Kenny Galday is not going to be the guy for them this year. I have more faith in Cadarius Tony. And with that being said, I think as a Giants fan, you have to hope Daniel Jones bottoms out this year. And you are a team that's drafting in the top five and has an opportunity at a quarterback in this upcoming draft. Yeah, rooting for losses.

Chicago Bears fans can definitely relate to that feeling. And it's such a bad feeling, especially with the football team, because weekly, all you're doing is watching three hours of pain. So enjoy, Giants fans, and enjoy. Jared Gough, just had a chance before this pod to talk to Lomas Brown for my pod, the full go. And he talked about Jared Gough in the way he played the final five games of the season and what the expectation level is now going into this season. Dan Campbell is a madman, right? He's, we were watching hard knocks. That is a footbally, footballing. He is all about it. Now, will Jared Goss' offensive line and weapons compliment what he doesn't have in terms of maybe arm strength or some of the other things, some of the other knocks on his game?

How does Jared Gough kind of stabilize his NFL quarterback life? Because he's been to a Super Bowl, he's been to an NFC championship game. He's kind of got that Mark Sanchez-esque career arc right now. And what you don't want is to start to be somebody's back. up if you still want to be a starting quarterback, which means he's got to play better this year. So what did the last four or five games of the season tell you is that fool's goal? And what's the ceiling for a guy like Jared Gaw, former number one pick out of Cal? You mentioned at the top of this specific tier, the mostly bad, sometimes good tier, who has

that opportunity to kind of leap up and exceed maybe low expectations right now? I think golf is that guy. I think Gough has been bullied and undermined to a point where he's underrated in a way because after being traded away from Los Angeles Rams and having the year that he did with Sean McVay, a lot of people just kind of cast him away into a Detroit Lions team that no one expects anything from. And I think Dan Campbell, through personnel decisions,

but also just culture building has built a team that a lot of people are on now. A lot of people feel will clear their win total of five and a half or six and a half wins, depending on where you can get it. Teams are betting them, you know, people are betting them to win the division at like plus 700. A lot of people are excited by Dan Campbell

Campbell and this Detroit Lions team. I think some of that is because Jared Gough has gotten to a point where he's underrated. And over the last, five games, you saw him start to click in this offense. And an offense that admittedly had very little skill player talent. And now Amon Ross St. Brown, the second year receiver now entering his second season in the NFL, I think he's going to be a talented player.

I love that they brought over DJ Chark. I love T.J. Hawkinson. This offensive line should be top three in the NFL. If golf is a top 20, fringe top 16 quarterback this year, I think a lot of people will be, know, I think impressed with this Lions team, a team that does maybe win seven, eight games. Now, are you committing long term to Goff after a relatively resurgence season? Absolutely not. I still think he's firmly in that, you know, bridge quarterback tier.

They're thinking about him more like Jimmy Garoppolo than they are, Trey Lance. And that's fine. I think this Detroit Lions team wants to get younger at that position and find that star. But that doesn't mean Goff is as bad as I think he was prescribed when he was initially traded away from the Rams. All right. So next on the list, Carson Wentz of the Washington commanders. Now, this is a guy who, you know, claimed to fame was, hey, man, he was almost the MVP. before he got hurt.

And then we've had the last couple of years where some of the more inexcusable interceptions that we've seen in big games. I mean, Carson Wentz, the back injury being on a couple of different teams now, is Carson Wentz closer to a backup quarterback than he is a starting quarterback at this point in his career? I don't know if he's going to stick it out as a backup quarterback. I think this roller coaster play that he has where he's off. putting the ball in harm's way more consistently than you want from any backup quarterback.

I think it's going to be the ultimate concern, right? I think his high end is why the Indianapolis Colts invested him and felt that they could take him to the playoffs. And his low end is why he's not playing for that team anymore. And I think there's just too much low end in his game, specifically because of inaccuracy that is going to, you know, that prevents him from ever, you know, reaching this top 16, top 10 type of tier. And you go back to his best season in Philadelphia, that 2017 season, so much of that success was in volatile areas. and you look at volatile areas of quarterback play that's third down and fourth down, red zone, and then under pressure.

And when you're winning in those areas, though it draws all the highlights and seeing him scramble out of like four sacks and throw a touchdown down field is obviously really exciting. It's really unstable because there's a lot of variables that impact that play beyond accuracy, pocket presence,

being able to just stand and deliver a throw. And when you ask him to stand and deliver a throw from clean pockets, he consistently is below the top 16, top 20 quarterbacks in the NFL and accuracy, below the top 16, top 20 quarterbacks and putting the ball in harm's way. And that's just not enough. That's not enough to be a franchise guy, which when Washington commanders initially traded for him,

when we knew Marcus Marriota, Mitcher Chubisky were going to be available in free agency, it's absolutely bewildering at that decision because they pick up the entirety of his contract from the Indianapolis Colts, Chris Ballard pulling off wizardry in that regard and that he was able to move on from, you know, Carson Wentz, a failed experiment in Indianapolis that quickly. And now Washington, who has a good roster, good defense, I think offensively, skill players, that people like is now hitching their wagon to a quarterback that we just saw. And what you could argue is a better situation, Indianapolis, not get the job done and really

struggled down the stretch of last season. The jury's out on Carson Wentz. He's not in this tier where you expect him to make a leap or you expect him to fall down drastically. He's just not good enough, not good enough, not consistent enough, not accurate enough to be this top-end guy. Yeah, I think the jury's in for me after hearing that description, to be honest with you. If it wasn't in before, it's in now. Austin Gil has spoken, damn it. All right, next up on the list. Baker Mayfield, another former number one pick, another Heisman Trophy winner. The Cleveland situation, ups and downs, you get Odell Beckham Jr., you play with a hurt shoulder, and you let people know afterwards.

Now he fights it out with Sam Darnold, and he wins that fight, you know, two former first-round quarterbacks trying to figure out what their lot in NFL life is. The Carolina Panthers and Matt Ruhl, he brought his magician ship from Baylor, and it hasn't really translated. So what do you expect out of Baker Mayfield this year after everything that has been the roller coaster ride in his first three years, four years in the league? Baker Mayfield, win healthy, which is obviously critical. Play loud last year left hurt. And I think that was a big reason, at least a driving factor in why towards the back half of last season, you just didn't see it with him.

But Win Healthy has two things that matter and that are consistent. Good arm, can fire the ball in the tight windows, and he's accurate with the football. And if you have those two things, it's why he was the number one overall pick. It's why people flock to his talent. It's why he had success at Oklahoma in an offense that just created a ton of open throws. Where you have concerns with Mayfield is just some of the decisions he makes, right? The decision to play hurt being one of them, right? The decision he makes with the football and putting it in harm's way, when the pressure's on both literally and when you're down in the fourth quarter, it just doesn't work.

I mean, there's just misfires in his head in terms of where he should put the football and who he should be thrown. the ball to and even accuracy starts to be more erratic under pressure. And I just think you see pressure, both from the outside, you know, pressure of media, pressure of, you know, coaching quarterback competition, and then obviously literal pressure on the football field when offensive line starts to collapse just really affect him in a negative way. And is that, can you win with that? Yes and no, all quarterbacks are worse under pressure than they are from clean pockets. That's nothing, you know, too insane. But it can't be, you can't be terrible under pressure. You can be bad. You can be bad under pressure. You can make bad decisions under pressure, but you can't be awful. You can't

be game-ending awful. And Baker-Mayfield too often, when under pressure, has thrown the game way, just legitimately thrown games away with, you know, throwing interceptions, fumbling the football, and not making the right and easy throws. And I think in Carolina, now doubted, now, you know, cast away to a team that no one's expecting to make a deep posties run, I think you'll see Baker-Mayfield exceed expectations. Will it be enough to ascend and really recreate his career? Ryan Tannanhill did in Tennessee. I don't think so because I still think that we're ways away from that. I don't think we're out of the injury discussion. I don't think we're out of the boneheaded decisions discussion. But I do think he exceeds expectations in Carolina. And that's why

I have him 19th on this list. A head of Carson Wins, ahead of golf and ahead of Jones. All right. The person who is at the top of this tier is the guy who eats Ws for a living. He is James Winston. Good old number two for the New Orleans Saints. Now, the Saints have themselves a fully invested line, right? You look at it top to bottom. There's first and second round picks across the board. And Ryan Ramcheck, Caesar Ruiz, Eric McCoy, Andrews, Pete, and Trevor Penning has been turning heads, if not knocking him off in New Orleans Saints camp, this training camp. So he's got those guys. But then when you take a look at some of the skill positions, Michael Thomas is often injured and often out. He's hurt right now. Jarvis Landry is up

and age. And then you got a guy who I fell in love with the first time I saw him freshman year at Ohio State and it was on special teams. And that's Chris Olavet. I think he's going to be a fantastic football player. But James Winston has come to that point in his career where are you a backup, are you a starter? Like a couple of the guys in this conversation. I think it's overstated how bad James Winston is. And I also think it's understated how bad his turnovers are, if that makes any sense. Where do you fall when it comes to James Winston? What is a new era of Saints football coming up here?

So you brought up Matt Ryan, and you said whether I like it or not, or Matt Ryan's a former league MVP. Two years ago, James Winston led the NFL in passing yards. He has done, he has accomplished things in this league that no other quarterback in this tier has done.

Baker Mayfield, Wentz, golf Jones, even some of the quarterbacks above and Hertz and Murray and Tungo by Loa, he has been the league's leading passer. Now that same season, he threw 30 picks and 30 touchdowns. You know, there was some other concerns there too. But he got his eyes fixed, right?

Yeah, he has, in my opinion, correctable errors in his game. And that can be self-corrected through, I think, discipline, which I think you've seen a lot of that in his backup role in New Orleans. I think he learned a lot from Drew Brees. He's learned a lot from Sean Payton. And now there with Dennis Allen, I think there's a lot of confidence in a reformed James Winston in terms of just on-field decision-making and on-field presence and how to approach a lot I don't think he's going to be eating Ws anytime soon, right?

I think there's more buy-in into Winston now than there was two or three years ago, even when he was leading. When I say buy-in, I mean by other players on this team, there's more buy-in than there was two or three years ago when he was leading the league in passing yards. And that, I think, is enough to correct some of the issues. And then you factor in just better coaching in New Orleans, better supporting cast. This is a better offensive line, even without Toronto Armstead. And I really like this receiving corps.

I like Jarvis Landry from the slot. I think Crystal Lave, the first round picket of Ohio State is going to have success. and obviously Michael Thomas, who by all reports so far, looks healthy and looks damn good, I think is super important. So I think James Winston, he's never going to be a top 10 quarterback in this league. I don't see him ever making that type of assent. But don't, if he's in the second round of the playoffs dealing, I'm not surprised, right? I think he has that in him more than some of the other quarterbacks on this list. All right, there it is, ladies and gentlemen.

If you are the family or friends of these, what was it, 13, 12 quarterbacks that we have talked about, make sure that you hit Austin Gale up on Twitter. Do not jump into my mentions. He has sufficiently listed and tiered all of your family, whether it be dangerously mid 11 through 13, who knows flashy good and flashy bad and mostly bad, sometimes good. So if you fall into those tears, you got to get your game up. And also, you should thank Austin Gail for this content.

So Austin, as we get set to close this thing on out here on the NFL ringer show, anything else that you like to mention about some of these quarterbacks that we've we've discussed because you got the young guys that we didn't really get into the Trevor Lawrence's of the world, the Justin Fields of the world and some of the young guys. Who of that group do you think is going to separate themselves this year before we get up out of here? It's Trevor. I don't even think it's close. I think Trevor, I would rather have Trevor Lawrence than Daniel Jones.

I'd rather have Trevor Lawrence and Goff, Mayfield, Winston. I'd put him ahead in terms of who do I want on my football team right now. I just think it's too early to say they're better. He's better than those quarterbacks, right? I think one year in a really bad offense with Urban Meyer, who is essentially a clown show, probably the worst head coaching tenure in the history of the league, it's hard to really determine how good he'll be. And I think this year, with some more consistency in Doug Peterson, with some of the additions

they made offensively adding Zay Jones, who I know is burning it up in camp. And obviously, added Christian Kirk made him a highly paid receiver. I think Trevor Lawrence takes a significant leap this year. And I don't necessarily believe the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be a playoff team because of that, but I think there's going to be way more buy-in into Lawrence being a top 16, top-a-league quarterback after the season. There it is. Austin, as always, man, it's good to chop it up with you. We will do this again next week. Same bad time, same bad channel right here on a Tuesday.

So for Austin Gale and my main man, Christopher Sutton, I'm Jason Gough. Thanking you for hanging out with us here on the NFL Ring your show.