The Ringer NFL Show - Mike McDaniel’s Chubb Flub, the Juiciest Playoff Scenarios, and More Big Takeaways From Week 17 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 2, 2024

Sheil and Ben begin the show by speculating on how Bradley Chubb’s injury will affect the Dolphins' playoff viability and sharing their most desired first-round playoff matchups in each conference. Next, they debate the offseason moves for both the Seahawks defense and the Commanders as a whole (25:56). Finally, Ben sees Kirk Cousins in a Steelers jersey next year, Sheil fears that Panthers owner David Tepper could be turning into the new Daniel Snyder, and they both take a look at some possible scenarios for the Cardinals, Lions, and Jets next season (46:10). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season, from week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. We have you covered every which way. We've got our favorite futures. We've got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlays. That's a given.

So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms. Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. and be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Come to Extra Pointeak, it's Heel Capote here, joined by Fenns Solac. Happy New Year to everyone.

Week 17 is a wrap. One more week left to determine who's in, who's out. You got three spots up for grabs in the AFC, two in the NFC. I think 11 teams who don't know whether they're going to be in or out going into week 18. We'll talk about that.

You got the coach hiring and firing cycle. You got the off season. Who knows what direction will go in. Solac looks like a man who stayed up late watching the college football playoff, but is still feeling refreshed. Yes, I'm not on the most sleep of had in my entire life. I did watch the end of Texas, Washington. As a Texas spread better, I didn't enjoy the majority of the game.

I'm going to take the Washington spread against Michigan and the national championship before this game even ends better. I really didn't enjoy the end of the game. It was highly stressful. But man, this is the problem with NFL pods this late in the season. I've watched more college film this week than I've watched NFL film. So I'm getting ready for the Senior Bowl later in January, right? We got the national championship games.

I'm getting the NFL draft shows kicking back up. Subscribe the NFL draft show, bring our NFL fantasy feed. So I'm like, I went to my brain for takes for this show. My brain was like, Malik Neighbors, Jane and Daniels, Michael Pennix. And I'd be like, no, no, no, no, the other one, the professional one. Think about those games again. You can still mix it in like a hot, you know, it's got to be something big. I don't want to know who your day three guard is,

but if you have like a hot Caleb Williams or Drake May or Michael Pennex is going to be better than both of them, take that I would be happy to hear any of those. So there you go. Did you watch that game last night or no? Yeah, of course. Panics can, that was the best I've seen. Oh, my gosh.

He stepped off the moment. That was something to say. Ooh, he can, he can sling it. There's no doubt about it. Listen, we'll get to the takes, but I had, I mean, the time these games start for an East Coast old man like myself, I do this stupid thing. I wonder if any of our audience does this, if you are an old man like me.

When there are these late games on at halftime, I'm like, all right, I got to get all my like, get ready for bed stuff. I will go brush my teeth at halftime just so that the moment the game ends, I'm like, all right, I'm going right to sleep right now. And that was one thing I do. I don't know if anyone else does that.

It's stupid. It saves you like three minutes. There's no point in doing it. Trust me, I see you looking at me. I know it's dumb. Other things, so like... You can't snack during the second half? I mean, like, it's late.

I'm like, you can't eat anything that late when you get, listen, when you get my age, you can't, you can have a little snack here and there, but I was full. I wasn't feeling like I needed a snack at that time. If I'm watching football at 12.30 in the morning, which is the thing I do perilously often at this time of year. You better know I'm snacking while that's happening. I need, I need, I need the sustenance to keep me up. I need to be engaged mentally by a Clementine. And then the other dumb thing I did, I rip all these coaches for the clock management. And after Washington recovered the onside kick,

all right, games over, they can just take a knee. Turn it off. Wake up to text and messages, luckily, with a YouTube TV sponsor, had the game recorded so I could watch the final minute and a half. There, holy cow, I miss like 40 minutes of action there in the final minute and a half. So there you go. Those are my notes.

This game is a good segue point in my first take shield. This is an incredible professional podcast. Go right to it. Let's go. Let's start it up. Now, Washington game, they're running the ball in third down. their star running back, Dylan Johnson gets hurt and potentially, like, you know, as a

major injury for the upcoming national championship game and why didn't they just kneel the ball and you got to eat the clock and, like, a very fraught decision that ended up in a bad, bad spot for Washington. My first date is that I think Mike McDaniel blew the Dolphins' play out hopes by letting Bradley Chub continue to play there late in the fourth quarter.

And you never, you don't know this is going to happen. Like, it's all right. It isn't to say that it's Mike McDaniel's fault that Bradley Chub got hurt. That I think is a two direct line of causation. But for those who missed it, while the dolphins and the Ravens were playing, it's three minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Dolbids have already gone for like a fourth and seven from their own 25, right? They're already in like super desperation. We'd need 19,000

things to have in order to win mode. Three minutes left, down by 30. Tyler Huntley is in for the Ravens. He's handing off to Melvin Ingram, right? I mean, the Ravens got their backups in. The dolphins have some starters out there on defense. And one of their starters is Bradley Chub, who's a starting defense event for them. He's their leading sack getter on the season. He has 11 on the season. He's got a history of injuries, right? This is an injury history going back to college,

and you've already had one edge rusher and Jalen Phillips go down with major injury this season. Bradley Chubb is really, really high in the list of important players in your defense. He might not be one, but he's probably top two in terms of important players on your defense. Chubbs chasing down Ingram. He gets twisted down a bad way. you hear it immediately on the broadcast. He yells in the broadcast.

He collapses. He grabs his knee. They got to cart him off. And then MRI reveals the next day. He's got a torn ACL. He's out for the season. So Mike McDaniel was asked about the decision to have Bradley Chubb in that late in the game. And, you know, he says in hindsight, obviously I shouldn't have done it.

It doesn't look smart at all. He brings up, okay, last year, you know, we were down late against the Ravens as well. And like the thinking was like, you know, we had such an incredible comeback then. maybe we could now. And that's true in the beginning of the fourth quarter when you're down 21. It's not true with three minutes left when you're down 30. Like that's just not, it isn't happening. It doesn't matter what you got on offense.

It's not happening. And so it was a egregious mistake. And it's important to highlight these because oftentimes we have coaches that like we don't like or coaches that regularly make end of game decisions that make a bad one. And like we're on here and immediately just like, you can't do that. This is terrible. Mike, we generally like McDaniels, under the view is a very good coach and a very smart guy.

Like his offense is in. amazing. And the way he's handled two is great. Like I have a world of respect and admiration for how Mike does the job. This was such a bad mistake. This was such a dumb, knuckleheaded error. Really, really bad. Where are the dolphins at now? Well, you're like I said, leading sack at her Bradley Chubb, 11 sacks on the season is now out for the year. Jalen Phillips, who is their other star edge rusher. He didn't have the same stats as pressure rates a little bit lower. He only had six and a half sacks in the season. But he was the guy that when you were on offense game planning against this unit, that was the guy you were worried about on third down. he's also out for the year. You're losing 445 pass rushing snaps from Chubb at defensive end

and another 198 from Jalen Phillips. They still have some meaningful players in the pass rush. I don't want to minimize what Zach Seeler can do as a little defensive end, David's a tackle hybrid. He's got nine and a half sacks on the season. He's having a great year. They gave him an extension. He's really paying them off for it.

Andrew Van Ginkle, who's like a little hybrid outside linebacker, pass rusher for them. He's got juice off the edge. Christian Wilkins has always had a nice presence. from the interior. They have players. But this team, you know, they brought in Jason Pierre Paul

to like see what he could be, you know, and then he wasn't it for them. They have Melvin Ingram on the roster. They've already done to like kick the tires on the vets that are around hoping that somebody's got enough juice for them to be meaningful. They've already done a couple times this season and haven't really gotten return on their investment.

Justin's still hanging around. I had a free agent go get you with Justin Houston. But like, it's Justin Houston. You know, it, no one's, this is January. No one's coming around the mountain to save the pass rush. And this defense, which have been so good down the stretch, has been so holistically, it's been so because of all 11 players, been so it was a good scheme. I don't want to say this is like a pass rush oriented defense without a pass rush.

They're dead in the water. But it is becoming really hard to overlook now this issue for the Dolphins defense, where on that defense, on, particularly on the edges, they are down to bare bones in terms of their roster. They've lost two highly impactful players to injury. The second one, Bradley Chub, in a very, very, silly way. And in a tight AFC, man, where I really like the Dolphins

preseason. I've liked them all season. And I like them even after the Cowboys lost. And even that Raven's embarrassing loss, it's like, okay, well, they still get Jalen Waddled back. And so put points on. I still had, I still had avenues in my mind where the Dolphids made an AFC run. Those are getting thinner and thinner and thinner with these injuries.

It's one of the weirdest things NFL coaches do because it doesn't align with the way the league and the trends have gone in what the last five or ten years. When you look at what the team do in August and what they do during the week, during the season, and the more walkthroughs, and the fewer pads. And it's like, they realized at some point in the last 10 years that one of the biggest predictors of success in the NFL is very simply, how injured are you? And, you know,

how many healthy guys do you have once January rolls around? I mean, that tells you the story so often about which teams are good and which teams are bad. And so I'm with you. I don't understand this at all. Yeah, I can understand early in the fourth quarter, even if you're down, three or four touchdowns, you're the dolphins. You can score very quickly. There's always a chance. It's a big game. It's a high leverage game.

So go ahead and try to win. But at that point in the game, like at some point, whether you need to have some type of mathematical formula or feel, where you just look out there and say they're playing Tyler Huntley, this game is probably over. Let's not put our guys out there.

You need to take your best players off the field. Now, to be fair to Mike McDaniel, I'm sure, you know, he would take, you can't take everybody off the field. You only have, you know, a certain number of people on the game day roster. And so you have to play somebody and you're thin at certain positions. But Bradley Chubb, like you mentioned, I mean, that is absolutely a guy at a position and, you know, his value to the team that should not be playing in that spot. And you're right to call out other, you know, coaches and teams too. I mean, Kyle Shanahan was doing this with Christian McCaffrey early in the season. They're at the point in McAfri's got a mild cast friend. It's not going to

play week 18. And it's like, Like, which the macafric point is just when you use a guy for this many snaps, he is more likely to get banged up than not by the time January comes around. Especially a running back. Right. It's one thing to have like second year man, Cater Cohoo still playing nickel. He's just starting nickel, but he's a cater cohoo. Like, he's an important member of the team, but he doesn't have an injury history.

He's a young guy. Like, it's one thing. When it's the dudes who regularly get banged up with the number of snaps that they play, you have to be cognizant of it. Yeah. So it's a good one to call out. I mean, you wonder, you had no chub. I remember we had a conversation when Jalen Phillips went down.

I was like, I don't know about this Dolphins defense. Dolphins defense took off without Jail and Phillips and was awesome. You know, Vic Fangio, that's what the money's for. Now you got to really figure it out and scheme it up with the guys you have. But at some point when you don't have the pass rush, it becomes a lot harder. So dolphins are such an interesting team here going into week 18, going into the playoffs. Like, it's been a really mostly feel good season for them. the entire season, but like, how does this thing end?

I mean, if you lose this week and then you lose in the first round of the playoffs, how are you feeling about this team going to the offseason? Are you still like, hey, everything's great. They got some bad injury luck, or is there more to it than that? So that's a good one, certainly, to call out. More likely right now to make the AFC championship game, the Miami Dolphins are the Cleveland Browns. Ooh, baby, okay.

Miami Dolphins are the Cleveland Browns. Browns are going to go to the winner of the AFC South. So you're, I mean, I kind of think the Browns. Is that crazy? What do you think? I mean, so the reason why this conversation, this question is tricky now is because the dolphins might have all home games before the championship game if they get the two seed or they might have all road games to get the sixth seed, right?

So there's a lot of leverage hanging still in Week 18. I do think the dolphins are still more likely to, but the direction of the arrows right now is really meaningful. Cleveland has never been more up than they are right now. Miami's never been more down than they are. right now, right? And so there's very different trajectories for those two teams. I think it makes it hard to calibrate because it feels like

like, all right, Cleveland's on the rise, Miami's on the fall. I don't know. This Cleveland team, man, I tell you. Like, they're very, they're very interesting. Here's the thing. Here's the thing. Here's the thing. This is an historically good defense. And I think we're, I think we're too easily, this is going to be one of my takes. It's not one of my takes.

I think we're too easily waving away. Like, oh, they have the best defense. They have, like, Ben Baldwin put up his serious conversion rate numbers, but just how often an opponent's first and 10 becomes either a new first and 10 or a touchdown. Cleveland's the best defense since 99. This is an unbelievably good defense.

And I'm just looking at this AFC with just a lot of liable teams and shaky offenses and some injuries. And I'm just like, man, what if Cleveland just wins every game 13 to 10? I'm starting to worm its way into my head. I would agree with that. I mean, yeah, we'll get to our predictions

and sleepers and all that here in the weeks ahead. but I don't have a massive disagreement with you there. Last thing on the dolphins here. At some point, you can't turn away from what they've done against top competition here. I mean, I did this little exercise this morning where I looked at every team's record against teams that are still, like, mathematically could still get into the playoffs. So it's teams that are in the playoffs and then teams that could still get into the playoffs against those teams. Dolphins are one and four with a minus 84 point differential.

and they've only played five games against those teams. That's the fewest in the NFL. And so it's like, you know, when it's the chiefs and the bills and the Eagles and now the Ravens and their only win, you know, was that one against the Cowboys, it's tough to look at that and say this team's going to go into the playoffs and be, you know, and going to make some noise, even though I really like this team. I really like this Dolphins team. I've had fun watching them all season.

So we'll see what happens with them. All right. Good segue to mind here. So lack. And I hope I'm not stealing like your extra. point taken or anything here. If I am, who cares? We'll figure it out.

But I have come up with the Capadia, all-juice, playoff matchups. Okay, so this is... This is very funny because you're the... Did I steal it? ...and I'm the joyful, man. No, earlier this week, I put on Twitter, my all piss everybody off,

playoff scenario. I was like, how can I get the most fan base? I got the Falcons into the playoffs. I got the bills out. I had the Cowboys losing the division to the Eagles. Just the absolute worst violence. lives, like everyone's unhappy with where their teams are at.

That's what I went for. You went for juice. Listen, I'm always a ray of sunshine. I think listeners know that from listening to the show the last two years. So here's the exercise. I went through. And like I said, we have 11 teams that could be in or out, depending on the outcomes of week 18.

So I am giving you the seatings, the pairings, the playoff matchups that will provide the maximum entertainment value when I'm sitting in this chair to my right on Wild Card Week. I love a wild card. I love a divisional round weekend. I love a wildcard round weekend. When I'm sitting there, I want to be entertained. You know, you're an Eagles fan. I'm a team content here.

So this is like the team content matchups here. So I'm bumping the teams that I find a little bit boring where I don't necessarily need to see them in a playoff game. And I'm looking for the fun teams and the fun matchups. This was actually harder than I expected. So I want more feedback on whether I got this right or whether I got this wrong. I'm starting with the NFC. NFC was a little bit easy.

It was definitely easier than the AFC. So NFC is going to work itself out, I think. Hopefully. I've got the Green Bay, well, no, it's not going to work itself out. You know we're going to get surprises and none of this is going to happen. But here's what I've got. The number seven, Green Bay Packers, he's got the cheesehead on, the team of extra point taken. There are one win away.

We've still got a shot. We still got a shot. Going to Dallas to take on the Dallas Cowboys. You got Mike McCarthy versus the guy who replaced. You got Dak Prescott. You got Jordan Love. Well, I'm just like pretty close to predicting he's going to win the MVP next year. We'll save that for an off season five.

You got the possibility of Dak Prescott going like 27 for 27 against Joe Barry's defense. I mean, a lot of things in play here. What I like is you got quarterbacks, you got coaches. You got, I think, two good teams. You have a chance for some fireworks, some high scoring, a high scoring game. And so that's my seven at two Packers at Cowboys. That one's got some juice. Six at three is the easiest one.

Revenge, that's got tons of juice, man. Yeah, that's a great one. Next one's easy. I mean, everyone wants this. Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions. Jared Gosson, you got rid of me, McVeigh? Well, now I'm stealing your soul, and I'm going to the divisional round. You threw me under the bus, and now look how I'm playing with another offensive coordinator.

It wasn't all you. So you got golf first, Ms. McVeigh. You got Stafford returning to Detroit, which we talked about on a previous show. You got two explosive offenses. I mean, this would be one of the marquee matchups of Wild Card Weekend if we get Rams at Lions. So just to be clear, Packers are not in. Rams have clinched the spot, although we don't know if they're going to be the six or the seven seat. Now, this was the hardest one.

This is the one where I need your help here. Five at four, I've got the Eagles, and I just went chalk and went to Tampa. You know, 2021, Eagles go to Tampa. Jalen Hertz doesn't play well. They go into that offseason exploring a Russell Wilson trade. They don't want you to know about that. Exploring Deshawn Watson's trade.

No, no, no. Alan Robinson, we're going to go sign Alon Robinson. That 2020 offseason was really disaster for the Eagles, dude. They just escaped Scott free. Nope, they knew all this. They knew A.J. Brown was going to be available. They knew Alan Robinson was going to stink. They didn't want Watson.

They didn't want Wilson. They knew Hertz was the guy. Yeah, yeah. No, that's not how it played out. So you have that game from 2021. that would be sort of intriguing now that since then the Eagles go to a Super Bowl and then this year it looks like they're falling apart. Do they go to Tampa?

Do they lose that game? And all of a sudden it's like, what is the state of this team? What is the state of this franchise? And is Baker Mayfield playing in a divisional round game? So let's start there. And then I'll get to the AFC. What do you think of those NFC pairings?

Do you have any notes? Would you rather have the Saints? I know you would rather the Falcons get in because you pick the Falcons. But you're done with that. the Falcons in. Absolutely not. I've forsworned them. I don't know the team. I don't know. You don't know that. So that's the big one. Would the Eagles go to New Orleans or Atlanta? Would that be more fun?

And then would you rather have the Seahawks? I can't imagine. You'd rather have the Vikings. But would you read the Seahawks and the Vikings are the other teams I have to say, sorry to, you're not getting in in my scenario. What do you think? I think Packers are definitely the most juiced up of the three. Right now, Packers, according to the New York Times predictors, 68% chance to make the playoffs. They'd be doing it so as the wild card. 21% chance for the Seahawks, 3% chance for the Vikings. Of those three, I think the Packers are definitely the most preferable.

There's also some worlds where we're two teams make it out of the NFC South. I'm hoping we don't get that. Bucks and Saints would be just an absolutely drag on everything. Between the Bucks and the Saints, the one that I think has the most pizzazz as the Bucks, because I think people are into the Baker-Mayfield

resurgence, which, again, I've written about it, I've said on podcast, he's only good when you don't believe, leave in him. Once you start being like, a baker's pretty good, immediately bad. He's the, you know how like Tinkerbell can only fly if you believe in ferries? He's the opposite

of Tinkerbell, okay? When you're like, he's got it, he doesn't have it. When you're like, you know, Baker's bad, that's when he's good. So everybody's got to stop talking about the fact that Baker's playing better so you can play better. Well, he would be a dog in that game, right? Yeah, the Eagles would be favored in that game at Tampa, I think. I think so.

Given the way betting markets are still treating the Eagles, I mean, I'm doing the Eagles. I'm doing the Eagles defense for the play sheet this week. Holy smokes, dude. So bad. Yeah, so I don't know who I'd be picking in that game personally. So I think, yeah, the bucks have the most juice there.

I think NFC-wise, you nailed it. Okay, there you go. All right. So we got the NFC, I mean, this is tough. All right? So here's what I've got. Yeah, this is the hard one. In the AFC.

I've got the number seven, I can't believe I'm saying that because I've been ripping this team all season long. Jacksonville Jaguars. going to Miami. Miami wins this weekend, wins the AFC East. Jaguars go to Miami to face the dolphins. This is a tough one. Maybe you tell me the Steelers would be better.

I was thinking, you know what? Trevor Lawrence, maybe they have some magic. You got Trevor Lawrence. You got that dolphins offense. There's still some fun to be had with that game. So I've got seven verse two there. I want to give you all of them because they're all connected here. That's why I chose them the way I did.

Number six, Buffalo Bills. at Kansas City Chiefs in the first round. I just started with that and then worked off it, worked everything else off of that because anytime we can get Mahomes versus Allen in the playoffs, I want to see that. I don't care if the teams are flawed, which they are,

which makes this actually more intriguing. These are not two juggernauts. These are two very flawed teams, but these are two quarterbacks who are capable of anything. You've got the history. You've got the 13 seconds. You've got the Cadarius Tony call

from earlier this season. Anytime I can get Mahom For Salon, I want it. And so in this scenario, the bills would lose in week 18, but they still get in with either a Steelers or a Jaguars loss. So you get bills at cheese in the first round. I mean, that is an all-time first round matchup. And then finally, I've got Cleveland Browns number five at the Houston Texans number four. This is another tough one.

Tough spot for Houston. But, man, C.J. Stroud is so good. let's see what it looks like, him making high degree of difficulty throws all day long. Maybe they get blown out. I don't know. They played a couple weeks ago. T.J. Stroud didn't play in that game. So I've got the Texans.

I've got two AFC South teams getting in Jaguars as the seven. Texans winning the division. Sorry to the Cots. Oh, Jaguars sneaking in. Sorry to the Pittsburgh Steelers I left out. All right. What do you think? I agree with Texans, Browns for sure.

I think that my ideal four-seat winner is the Texans. that team has the most juice. And like you said, particularly for the Browns game, that was the second game of Keenham. He very clearly was not really capable of executing the offense, and the Browns just kind of beat him up up front. The Texans were also missing pieces of their pass rush in that game.

Grinard was out, and Will Anderson was out, so they couldn't heat up flack either the way they wanted to. They'd be a lot healthier of a team in the rematch, and structurally, that sort of defense, single high cover one cover three, which they rotate a bit, they do,

but generally, that defense is the sort of defense that like Stroud and Bobby Sloick can just shred the pieces because the dig's going to be open and it's going to be open every day the week and twice on Sunday. Like that's sort of game where I would very seriously consider like there's going to be actually a lot of points in this game despite the fact that the Brown's defense is so good. I would love to see Stroud play that unit. So that's what I'm hoping for. Bill's Chiefs, great.

Good, good Jerry Rgging. Well done. Got a shoehorn that one in there. I forgot that Cadarius Tony was against the bills. Dude, that's, that play has been already eliminated from my mental accounting, like five, five crazy plays ago. And then seven-seat Jags. Would you rather have the Steelers?

I'd rather have the Steelers for the consternation of it all, right? Like, for the Mason Rudolph in a playoff game, that's funny to me. I'm going to talk about the Steelers a little bit later. And so I won't take my hand on the Steelers too much. But seven-seat is tricky. I think that I want the Texans to make it for sure. I want the Bills to make it for sure. And then the seven-seat and the AFC,

I'm kind of just like, nah. You don't care. Give it to somebody who I'll laugh at while they play. Okay. Yeah, you know,

you do need that. What is it? The Saturday afternoon. You do need something, you know, weird in that. The Nickelodeon game. Yeah.

Mason Rudolph on that, John. In that time slot. So there you go. That is the Capadia, all juice, playoff matches. That's not how it's going to play out.

We'll get, you know, Friday show. We'll get to our picks and everything. Weird stuff will happen. But if I could choose right now, who gets in, who gets out.

That's who I would have. All right, let's take a break. We'll come back. We will get to Solex second take. The NFL regular season is wrapping up, but there's still time to get in on the action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed

when you place a $5 bet. That's $150 in bonus bets win or lose. Week 18, early lines, two bets that I like. Texans money line plus 100. They're facing the Colts on Saturday. Winner might make the division. CJ Stroud is back. I like the Texans to win that game.

and then Bears Packers on Sunday. Bears been playing really good ball. Packers need to win and in. Bears will love to play the spoiler. I like the Bears plus three against the Packers. The app is so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet. Like same game parlays and make them live. Finding bets in the new explore tab. Making the parlay in the parlay hub the best way to find popular parleyes and more. So visit Vandal.com slash ring or NFL and make your first bet a layup. Vandal, official partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. $5 pre-game money wage are required.

First online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required. Bonus issue does not withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat. See terms at sportsbook.fanul.com. All right, we are back on extra point-tick and select. What do you got? What's your second take? Really upcoming, important off-season,

playoffs or not for the Seattle Seahawks, specifically on defense. Seattle is at a weird team-building stage, which I think you're always at a weird team-building stage when you go to trade away your franchise quarterback, and then you're kind of like, I wonder if this guy on our roster as the backup can actually be good.

And then he's good enough to start and like, let's give him an extension. You're kind of always just like, like, that's not, you kind of, in your mental accounting, you didn't plan for things to go that way. And I think you saw that in the Seahawks behavior where they like, they gave Gino the extension,

DK's on the extension. Okay, let's trade for Leonard Williams in the middle of the season. Let's go sign Draymond Jones, right? They think they were like, all right, let's do like a real quick one-year reload, fill some of the gaps we have on defense, fill some of the gaps we have on offense and go.

And this year, just defensively, they could not hack it, right? The early start of the season, I remember coming on this pot and being like, Seahawks defense, man, very high and successful. They were my first in success rate through week five. I remember being on this pod being like, I don't know how this is happening, but it is. It turns out it wasn't happening. It was not real. They're right now on the season 22nd overall in success in success rate.

They're 25th defensively since the Leonard Williams trade, right? They kind of like, they made the Leonard Williams trade in week nine being like, hey, we've been pretty good, but we're starting to struggle a little bit. Like, we'll plug Leonard Williams in, and it'll solve the problem, and it just didn't at all. The 29th overall in the season by EPA per drive by serious conversion rate, which I referenced earlier again, how many of your opponents first and tens become either new first and tens or touchdowns?

They are 30th. This is a bad defense. This is a seller-dwelling defense on the season. And that's a frustrating thing, given the resource that have been put into it, right? they are veteran contract extension players at safety with Quadrae Deggton with Jamal Adams who they traded multiple first round picks for all along the defensive line they are established players in Geron Reed who they went out and signed.

Draymond Jones they went on signing for free agency. Leonard Williams who they made the trade for. They went and got Bobby Wagner this offseason, right? They've also like drafted and done well drafting at Corner where they have three rookie contract players in Rick Wollin, Devon Wittespoon and Trey Brown is playing outside for them, all of whom can perform, right? They went and got Julian Love and free agency. this year. They poured resources into this defense

and this defense is not playing well. Critically, one of the really important things that happened in Seattle that I think was overshadowed in the Russell Wilson Exchange was that the Seahawks made a identity shift defensively in their time under Pete Carroll. We knew the Seahawks to be

a cover three, single high defense, right? Legion of Boom era defense. Okay, we got Dan Quinn, we got Gus Bradley. This is how we run things. And they kept that defense all through the 2010 up until 2021, Ken Norton, Jr., who was a member of that cadre of coach, as a linebacker's coach in the Legion of Boom, he was their defensive coordinator. After the 21 season, Pete moved on, Ken Norton Jr. He promoted Clint Hurt, who was their defensive line coach,

and he brought in Sean Desai, who's now the defensive coordinator, but also not really a defense coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles. Both of these guys are of Fangio backgrounds. Pete wanted to get on the wave, as many defenses have tried over the last couple of years, of a more fanjo-inspired system, of a more too-high system, right? I think in late 2010s, in the early 2020s, we saw a big zig in that direction from a lot of defenses, and for a lot of those defenses that did not work,

and the Seahawks are one of them, right? They tried to load up on the necessary talent. They tried to make the necessary investments. Okay, we're going to spend bigot safety. You need good safeties. Okay, we need a good linebacker. We're going to get Jordan Brooks in the first round. Okay, you need personal defensive linemen.

We're going to have Draymond Jones and Leonard Williams. And it just has not coalesced for them over two years with Clint Hurt running that defense. This is meaningful because Seattle is pretty cap committed offensively to the unit that they've got, right? They're going to be 23rd in cap space next season. They're pretty much like flirting with being over the 224 cap as it is. You're about to get big cap hits for Gino, who's about to jump from 10 million to 31 million. D.K's going to jump from 13 to 24. Lockett's going to jump from 11 to 26.8.

Which I've been watching some Tyler Lockett recently. I'm not sure I want to pay Tyler Lockett $1,26 million dollars. They're pretty committed to the version of the offense that they have and who the stars are there. Defensively, Leonard Williams, who they traded for, his upcoming free agency. Bobby Wagner is going to be a free agent. Jordan Brooks is going to be a free agent. You have the Chennauoso coming off of injury. You have Jamal Adams, who he's gone from 11.5 to 26.9.

They're benching this cat early in the season. I don't see how you possibly pay Jamal Adams that money to not play him, which is what they were doing this season. They are at a huge crossroads defensively. And Pete Carroll's background is a defensive coach. That's where he's supposed to bring value in terms of the schematics of the organization. He obviously brings a lot of value to a lot of other places,

but that's where he's supposed to bring the most value. So I think that you might see a defense coordinator change in Seattle, and I think it would be justified. I like Clint heard a lot, but the proof of the put into Eat in over the last two years, they put resources in this. This is not working. I think you could see them swing back

in the way, like think about the way the Brown swing, swung back. And they're like, we have Joe Woods, too high, Fangio and it was just horrible. And then they were like, what if we brought Jim Schwartz in here and we just let Miles Garrett cook? I think you look at the Seattle defensive roster. You say, Rick Wolland, Duvonne Witherspoon, Trey Brown, like, Julian Love's good, Quadra Diggs is good. Our secondary is like, we have the secondary. Let's go back to what we were doing, which is when we had a great secondary. And we just let

him eat. We just put them on the line of scrimmage and we asked them to win games for us. And we stopped trying to solve problems in other places with lesser players. So I think you might see a defense coordinator change in Seattle. I think you might see a swing back to that old defensive philosophy. And I think that's really important because Pete's been there for a long time. And you got a, you know, he's great coach. It's the same conversation we've had with Tomlin, same conversation we had with Belichick last year coming into this year. You're there for a long time, but the NFL is, what have you done for me lately league?

And for Pete, it's all right. Those Niners keep winning the division, brother. Those Niners keep making runs, but in the division, you are getting big boy. You're getting your second place. You have to show that you can push to that. So this, I think, is an important season I'm coming for the Seahawks cap-wise, especially on the defensive side of the ball. A little bit of heat on Pete Carroll to get this one right.

It hasn't just been one year, you know, to be clear, this has been like five straight years where they've had a mediocre or below-average defense. And so for the first, you know, what, three years of that, we talked kind of the opposite of what you're saying. It was, oh, you know what? They're the only team still sticking with this old, just line up and play and play your one high, and teams are too good for that, and the league is passed them by. They got to change.

And then what happened? I remember I was at the combine asking Pete Carroll about this I think before 2022 and he spoke in a way I had never heard him speak before where he said, I think we've been a little bit arrogant

in how we play defense. And I was like, whoa, I've never heard you say anything remotely, remotely close to that. And so he was basically saying what you're saying. Then, no, we need to evolve.

We need to do things differently. We need to disguise more. We need to look at how offenses are attacking us. And so they tried to do that. Like, I can't really fault them for the process. He tried to evolve and it didn't work. To your point, it's not as simple as just saying, hey, you know, so-and-so coach with Vic Fangio and they're going to be able to implement this. Like, we see that over and over again in the NFL. Teams try

to do that on offense and defense, and it doesn't work. And so I don't know, like, what their answer is now. Like you mentioned, they're not going to have a massive personnel upgrade. I mean, they've got good, some good young players, but like Rick Wollin has not been the same player. He was previously. He's been in and out of the lineup. They benched him a little bit in there. Witherspoon looks like a great pick if he can stay on the field. So they've got some players up front. Dremont Jones has not, you know, given them kind of the bang for the buck. They were expecting there. They give draft picks like you mentioned for Leonard Williams. He's not going to be there. So they've got issues at linebacker. I don't think their pass rush is

great. It's, you know, they've got some players. It's not great. They've got some players in the secondary. So I just don't know what their path is. You're right. Yeah. It's easy to say, you know, if you can go get a Jim Schwartz type defensive coordinator who makes a huge difference. To me, it's a little different because Stefansky, he's an offensive head coach, so he's handing the keys to the defense to the coordinator and say, go ahead

and do that. Like Pete Carroll, I mean, this is going to be, he's going to dictate how both the offense and the defense play, but specifically the defense. I mean, this has been a great, was a great defensive coach. Like one of the all-time resumes, if you look at that run for the Legion of Boom, but it's

hard. It's hard to figure it out. later. So I don't know exactly what they do. I'm with you. That has been the biggest issue with the Seahawks. Like you can talk me into them having a top eight offense next year. The offense has been a little up and down this year, but I don't think it's been the problem. Some people think. I think the defense has been a massive problem. I mean, to go out against Mason Rudolph and that's Steelers offense and give up over 400 yards and to not be able to get stops and to see this over and over and over again with this defense, that's really tough. to swallow. So I think Carol will look at it and he'll ultimately be the guy who makes the decision,

is this coaching, is this scheme, is this personnel, how are we going to try to figure this out? And while I have, I give him the benefit of the doubt in a lot of areas, I don't know that this is one where I still give him the benefit of the doubt because it's been five years or so and he still hasn't been able to figure it out. Yeah. And the duration is important. I think always the personnel changes are meaningful. Like a lot of times when it's like, oh, this guy's I've figured out in years, you go and look at personnel and you're like, well, they've just missed. Like when you do two first round picks for Jamal Adams and you get

the health and quality of play that you've gotten from Jamal, it's like, okay, you just burn so many resources on a miss that it's hard to scrape it together otherwise. It's still the expectation, right? Like you said about Big Fangio, it's what the money is for, but it's challenging. I do have a little worm in the back of my head that says if Fuchinau Nwos, who didn't get hurt, we wouldn't be having this conversation

at all because their edge play is really, to me, the thing that has been the most damaging. They line up and play like a team, that has edge rushers who can smack dudes around and defend the run. Think about like Browns, like Miles, Garrett, Zedaria, Smith, everybody thinks about the pass rush. Those are big dudes, right?

They're like the jets, like, with like Michael Clemens out there, right? Like, when you want to play with some of this light box nonsense, your edge rushers need to be sons of guns against the run. They need to be big and mean. And Nuosu's not even big. He's just mean. Other than that, it's like Boyamoffey and Daryl Taylor. It's just guys are just not, like, they're built for speed.

So a lot of this, I kind of watch it. I'm like, okay, Nolosu's amazing. If Nolosu is out there, they'd be totally fine. We'd be having this conversation. But if your defense hinges on a Geno Nubosu, you got problems. Right. And so I think they missed with the big splashes that they've made. I think that spending the money on Jamal,

Dremont, and Leonard Williams, the money in the pex, I should say, was the mistake. I think they need to get stronger at edge rusher, which, like, I understand there's wisdom and zagging where everybody zigs, but there's a reason why edge rusher is the premium position that it is. They've got to get, I think if they're better there, it can just hide a lot more issues for them, especially in the passing game. We're like, they'll have good coverage, but they just can't sustain for that long. And then, and pass rush isn't getting home. So I think they miss allocated a resource. I think this is a little bit more of a John Schneider failure defensively than it is that it's being reported as relative to Pete Carroll. But at the same

time, when Pete and John had been together for this long, Johnny doing anything without Pete's sign off, right? So it's, it's hand at hand. They need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoff Seahawks have the Cardinals in week 18, maybe they sneak in again and we say, all right, they're back in there. I tell you, man, Bears, Bears, Packers, like, I know, okay, bills, dolphins, Texans, Colts, Bears Packers, as it might be game in the week for me.

This Bears team, ah, I don't know, dude, if I'm, I, if anybody asks me explicitly in the off season would I hire or retain about Iber flus, I'm gonna, the way I'm gonna weasel out of that question and not give a straight answer, unbelievable. I really don't know, I'm 50-50 on it. They're playing well down the stretch.

Seventh in weighted DVOA, the Chicago Bears, seven. Again, that takes into account. Recent performances, man, they have just been a competitive, good, legitimately good team for like two months now. So, yeah, that is a tricky, tricky game, which I'm sure we'll talk about more on the Friday show. All right, my second take, and I know you agree with this one because you had something similar in your column this week, but I actually feel like it deserves its own segment. I don't know that I've mentioned this team in a take in like the last two years here. So here you go.

The Washington commanders. Commanders, yeah, 100%. Huge winners in week 17. Okay. And this leads to a larger discussion. But the basic gist of it is, Cardinals win, commanders lose. Commanders now have the number two pick in the NFL draft. So like you and I have spent hours upon hours upon.

hours in the last two years talking about rebuilding and how can a team set itself up for success and what do you need to do from coaching and GM and ownership and draft resources and all this stuff. I don't remember a team having the clean slate that the commanders are going to have this like this is what you dream of for a rebuilt. Now they've had to suffer through the Daniel Snyder era to get there. So maybe that's part of it. You suffer through that for a long time. And now you get a clean slate here.

But here's what they're working with. Okay, number one, new owner. I don't know if Josh Harris is going to be a good owner or not. He's going to be better than Daniel Snyder. Almost 76ers fan. He's not going to be good, but he'll be good enough. There you go. He's got to be better than Daniel Snyder.

That's number one. Number two, draft capital. They've got three picks in the top 50, five picks in the top 100. They got that second rounder in the Montes Sweat trade, which, you know, we can have a conversation about whether they should have done that or just extend him, but whatever. They got a second rounder there, so they get a high second round pick in that trade. They've got draft capital to work with.

Number three, maybe the most important. They have such an easy path towards a quarterback all of a sudden. Now, this is unless something crazy happens in week 18. I'm not telling you it's a guarantee. Caleb Williams or Drake, May they're going to come in and they're going to be the next CJ Stroudon. They're going to take the league by storm. Obviously, you don't know.

It's a risk. It's probably what it, like 40% at this point. At the same time, you just want a shot at it. And you want a shot at it where you don't have to give up like three first round picks to go and get it. This is a nice situation. You have the number two pick, whoever goes, Caleb Williams or Drake May. You take the other guy. You build around them and you hope for the best and you hope that you hit with the pick and that that guy can develop.

So you got quarterback, you got owner, you got draft capital. And then number four, you have a chance to align the head coach and the GM in a great way where it's not messy, where you're not saying, oh, well, we're going to hire a coach, but we have this GM. Or you're saying, oh, we're going to hire GM, but we're keeping the coach. Now, you don't have to do any of that. Fresh start, I'm sure the people, Ron Rivera, they're fine people, but it's obviously time to clean house. So here's what you do. You do my ideal setup.

You tell the coach and the GM, you two are in this together. You will either succeed together or you will fail together. If there comes a point where I'm firing someone, I'm firing both of you, so you don't need to go pointing fingers and say, and we're going to have a very defined structure who has final say on the 53 man roster, who has final say on all personnel decisions, who has final say on all draft picks. We will have that outlined here in the beginning. You will know where you stand. I expect you to work together and make it work. You have all these things, first time, probably since the early 90s that this franchise is set up to build something and to sustain

success. Again, I'm not saying it's going to work. Like I just laid it out. You could mess up the GM, you can mess up the coach, the quarterback could stake. There are all sorts of ways this could go wrong. That's why it's hard. I'm not saying it's easy. I know it's not easy, but this is the type of a blank slate that you dream of when you are a franchise trying to rebuild. So this is very rare in the NFL where you don't have anything that's messy. You can start over. The roster is not like good, but it's not a disaster. You have receiver talent. You have defensive tackle talent and you have draft capital to add in other areas of the roster. So this might be the first time I've said something nice about the Washington commanders

in extra point-take in history, but I think they were big winners in Week 17 because there's going to be a huge difference between the third pick and the second pick, and now they're positioned to make that quarterback decision so easily. Yeah. So something I didn't know when I wrote in the column, which was shared with me. I forget who he shared with me. I was trying to find.

I apologize if you're listening. The commanders have the second overall pick. If they, there's a world in which. which they lose it because the Patriots, if they lose to the, the Patriots and the Canters are tied right now. Oh, the strength of victory.

If they both lose, the strength of schedule actually flip, and the Patriots will get the second overall pick, right? Which is bananas that it comes down to just that. I take it all back. Right. Now,

Seth Walter of ESPN Analytics, chances turn number two overall pick. This was shared on New Year, so it was on Monday. Commander is 69%. Patriots are 23%. Right? Their models, the commanders are extremely likely to lose to the cowboys. They are multiple touchdown dogs. The Patriots might beat the Jets, right? That's the thing.

It's like the Patriots need to lose to the Jets. The Patriots have been playing decently good ball. The Jets are the Jets. It's not like, oh, well, the Patriots are definitely losing to the Jets and the commanders are definitely losing the commanders. And this is going to flip. It's that there's a chance that it does if the Patriots lose. But the Patriots can also win a lot of the games that they play against the Jets. And so the commanders are still projected seven out of ten universes to get the second overall pick, according to ESB. in analytics. So that's the good news. That's still overall, great win by losing for the commanders

last week, and they're expected to have the second overall pick. But they're, this still has to the hay is not in the barn. This still must be watched over week 18. So good, good narrative for the seller watchers, right? I'm not not interested in a playoff seating. I'm interested in draft order, dial you sell it into Patriots

jets. And how Bill Belichick would it be, Sheel? On the way out, against the New York Jets, just kick that pick from two to three for the next guy. Oh, you wanted to Drake May? You'll take your Marvin Harrison. You'll like it. That's a big, big, big moment there, commanders patriots

with that, with that pick. What I will say on the commanders, I think you said it very well. It's not that they're in a good spot. It's that every time they've been in a good spot in the last 20 years hasn't actually felt like a good spot because Dan Snyder owned the team, right? Even when it was like, all right, they have a clean sleigh, like maybe

they can get better. You just remember that the owner was so bad and was such a drain on the team from a behavior perspective and a criminal behavior perspective, an off-field perspective, and then also was just bad at managing the football ops of it all, that it never felt like the commanders were actually going to come around the corner. Well, now, just with new ownership, it's mouthwash. Everybody feels a lot better.

Fresh start, Matt Johnson's tweeting about us. Here we go. That is an encouraging thing if you're a commanders fan. And then the resources, especially if you have that second overall pick, are enough that you can one year not turn around this thing, but you and I might be coming on this pod at the end of 20, the 2024 season and be like, hey, commanders, they got it right.

Like, they clearly have a quarterback. They have a coach that makes sense. Build the roster now and you can be a legitimate team. And so there's a lot sunnier of optimism, I think, right now than there was previously with Washington, just because the owner change alone. If they get the second overall pick, huge, huge boost. Yeah, it's the strength of schedule tie break. So that could go one way or the other there in week 18.

So listen, bad job by me. Listen, it's week 18. We're coming off the holiday. I'd no idea when I wrote it. I'm glad you noticed that. Otherwise, yeah, that would have been moved. Who's, I look at taggathon, takeathon tells me, I'm like, they each play one game. There's no way strength the schedule is so close that it would flip, and it actually would.

What a great storyline for week 18 there. All right. Let's take one more break. We'll get to our final takes and the extra point taken. All right. We are back on extra point taken. Solek, what do you got? Kirk Cousins is going to be a Pittsburgh Steeler in 2020.

for. Right? Right? Yeah. Like, we're not. Are you following this Kenny Pickett thing? Well, what is the Kenny Pickett just that he's not playing and they're going with Mason Rudolph?

Yeah. So, firstly, Kenny Pickett's not playing and they're going with Mason Rudolph, right? That's established. They said on Monday, pretty much after the Seahawks win, oh, yeah, no, Mason's going to be the starter for us next week, which was kind of like, hey, last week you said, you know, Kenny could have maybe, like, if he's healthy enough, but we're just going to do Mason for one more week and then we'll see. And then after you beat that Seahawks game, it's immediate.

Mike Tomlin said, hey, we're going to start Bayesian Rudolph. Now, Tomlin was asked, obviously, about the quarterback situation, and he said, you know, he's about Piggots. Piggett's a huge part of our team, and we love Kenny Pickett, and he's great. And he also said that Kenny Pickett was medically cleared to play last week,

but it ended up a healthy scratch, right? He was not QB2, so having medically cleared was QB3, healthy scratch, emergency QB3. He said it was because of the distribution of practice snaps. Now, I don't know about you, but if I, if I've seen the last two games that Mr. Trevisky started for me, I don't need my starting quarterback to take a single snap in practice to put him as QB2 above Mitchell Trubisky. To this point, Mark Madden is a Pittsburgh, a sports radio guy for many years, said on Twitter today that he got told 100% Kenny Pickett refused to be

the backup to Mason Rudolph. And that's why Pickett was QB3. And Mark Madden is Mark Madden. So, okay, whatever. The athletics Mark Koboli said the same thing on the monetary. He said, I'm very, very skeptical. Quote, very, highly skeptical. That it was 100% Mike Thompson's decision that Kenny Pickett did not dress yesterday. Now, Madden also said, I know the Steelers, beat writers know this, and they won't write it. And Caboli was like, well, if I had it 100%, I would write it.

I don't have it 100%. So I'm not writing it. But this is my understanding of things. So it seems vibe-wise like Kenny Pickett was like, I'm healthy enough to play. and Mike Tomlin was like, no, we're playing Mason Rudolph for another week. And PAYGO was like, fine, I'm not dressing then. And then Rudolph put 30 on the Seahawks, you know, five completions of over 20 yards. It's played great by Mason Rudolph standards.

And now, and so Mike just came out Mondays again, we're starting Mason next week. The series may make the playoffs on QB3 with QB1 healthy, refusing to dress. After firing back Canada. this is such a mess. This offense should be so bad. George Pickens wasn't blocking for Jaylon Warren. This office should be a disaster. And it kind of is.

But the fact that they're still here at 8 and 7 and 9 and 7, excuse me, and I have a chance to make the playoffs is absurd. So all of this is like I make the playoffs, don't make the playoffs, Mason Rudolph plays well, it doesn't play well. I am very confident that this team is not, is going to look at a lot. lot of options besides

Kenny Pickett next year. And I'm also very confident that Mason Rudolph could win the Super Bowl. I think they would still look at other QB options than Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. You cannot.

You cannot listen to me. You cannot let a Mason Rudolph playoff run lead you to believe anything about Mason Rudolph as a future starter. That is disaster. That is, you can't touch it. That's horrible.

So I think the COs are very clearly going to be looking at. veterans next year, trades next year, and draft options next year. I think the performance of Pennix last night is just like a good case in point. This is a decent class to have a late first rounder in. I think that you're going to see Drake and Caleb go. And then I think there's going to be more first round picks of quarterback. I would say probably two.

I don't think they're going to be like top 10 guys necessarily. Maybe Jane Daniels, but who knows. I just got visions of Pennix, just throwing bombs to George Pickens. And I have to admit, I got a little excited there. Cordell Stewart always had, Colorado Stewart always had the best aesthetic as a Steelers quarterback and just thinking about panics, just rocking that Steelers. Oh, it looks so good. Regardless, the quarter of the Seals are going to look at every option at quarterback.

There's no question. I think that for short-term competitiveness and for certainty of a high floor offense, which I think are the things that Pittsburgh is pursuing, right? We want to be good now. Like, you know, Tom and wise, I want to win some games, I want to win some playoff games. And offensively, we don't need to be top 10. We just need to be not prohibitive to team success. And then defensively, we'll solve the rest of the problems. Running game will solve the rest of the problems.

We're good in the other phases. I think Kirk is your best option, right? I would love to say Fields. I think Fields to Pittsburgh is also a great idea. But in general, Fields does not represent a high floor option. Fields represents a highly volatile option. Kirk obviously has some more volatility of now coming off the Achilles tear. But in general, if Kirk wants to play,

and if Kirk's available, there's a free agent coming out, off the Vikings. I think that Kirk on a moderate contract, the team he makes the most sense for is the Steelers and he's also the quarterback that makes the most sense for the Steelers. So I like Kirk Cousins. A month ago I was on the Justin Field train, the more I think about it, the more I think Kirk Cousins

is your starting quarterback for the Steelers in 2024. Then you draft the guy. First round, second round, whatever. And you try to do what you did at the end of the Rothensburg era, which is you take Mason Rudolph and see if you can develop them in time. It's a stopgap solution, but that's what happens when you always go over

500. You don't get to get the good solution because you don't get the big top five. So I think Kirk is a stealer in 2024. And I think any at all morsels of this Kenny Pickett drama, please forward them to BeSolac at Spotify.com. I mean, yeah, I did I had not seen this. To be perfectly honest, I'm looking here, Kenny Pocket, I almost called him Kenny Pocket. Kenny Pocket. That's fun. I don't know what if he's operating, I don't know if he's operating from the pocket. Maybe I don't know if someone's done that before, but it felt right saying it coming out of my mouth. Kenny Pickett was asked about it and said,

whoever reported that he was refusing to be the backup quarterback, don't know where it started. Kind of crazy that people were right and put out there to try and prove their point or help their standpoint in their careers. Disappointed to see that. Yeah, Mark Madden really needed some help at this point in his career. Mark Madden who does this is like the 70s. This is just journalism.

You got to present both sides. I don't know. I'm with you. Listen, they got to do something. Oh, shoot. This report came out literally. where we started the pod. I was like, how did I miss this? It came out 42 minutes ago.

Oh, it did? Okay. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Good. Steelers are seventh and defensive DVOA, which like that kind of surprised. I'm watching them. I didn't think they were playing that well, but that's pretty, pretty impressive there. They've got some pieces on offense, which we've talked about earlier this season. I mean, you got the run game.

You've got wide receivers. Offensive line has improved from last year. You can still pour some resources there. And your floor is already going. to be high with Mike Tomlin, as we've learned over the last 17 freaking years. I know Steelers fans are tired of hearing it, and I'm sure if I was Steelers Media, I'd be tired of hearing it, but oh my goodness, 17 straight years without a losing record. So they got to do something. And yeah, I'm thinking about Kirk Cousins in there. I mean, that's a really good team.

Kurt Cousins. Now you've got to get the offensive coordinator right, but yes, they got to do coordinator, quarterback figured out this offseason, and then it could be a really good team going into next year. I'm getting Kirk in the building as a free agent. I'm saying Kirk. I'm showing him the Vikings' offensive coaching staff headshots on their team webpage. And I'm like,

I cover Kevin O'Connell's face. And I'm like, who is your favorite one? And he's like, West Phillips and all right. And then you hire West Phillips to be OC. That's how, that's time. Just plug and chug from that Viking staff. There you go. The Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend need a Bills or a

Jaguars loss. And of course, a win against the Baltimore Ravens, and they will get into the postseason. Not crazy. A win against the Ravens, and either a Steelers or either a Bill's or a Jaguars loss, and they can still get in. Ravens' backups in that game,

and as everyone has pointed out this week, and I would be remiss if I didn't join them. Ravens backups played the Steelers in a week 18 game like four years ago, and Robert Griffin III beat the Steelers. And so make sure you beat the backups first and then see what happens with the rest of the games. There you go.

All right. My third take here, So lack. David Tepper is becoming dangerously close to becoming the new Daniel Snyder. There has to be one. It's like the Sith. Like they rise up. Yeah. I want to be clear because this is in regards to how he's giving his fan base no hope and some of his behavior.

This is, you know, Snyder did a bunch of sexual harassment allegations, workplace misconduct, all that heinous stuff. That does not apply. I just want to be clear before I get a call from David Tepper's. presentation that is not what I'm talking about here. But just in terms of being a complete disaster and an embarrassment as an NFL owner, TEPPER keeps adding to his resume. So if you haven't seen it by now, there's a video of TEPA appearing to throw a drink at a fan in Jacksonville from his box. Per of the Athletics Show person, Panthers have declined comment. NFL have declined

comment. Teper bought the Panthers in 2018. during six seasons. They are 31 and 67. Only the New York Jets have fewer wins than the Panthers during David Tepper's tenure. They have no playoff appearances. They had six different head coaches during that time. They have this botched practice facility in Rockhill, South Carolina. So I'm looking at them this offseason. And I know there are only two NFL head coaching jobs, and I know money talks, and it's not like no one's going to want to go there. But man, if you are a head coaching candidate with multiple options, why on earth would you want to go work for this guy

who looks like a complete, I mean, throwing a drink at a fan, dude, you're worth $20.6 billion. What are you doing with your life? This is crazy. How are you doing that?

So you're going to work with him. You're going to have this roster that stinks. I'm not giving up completely on Bryce Young, although I will admit that I, yes, underwhelmed by his rookie season. You have no first round pick. This is potentially a terrible, terrible situation, and I feel bad for Panthers fans, because here's the thing about ownership. If it's a bad GM, there's always, you know what, it's a shelf life. They're going to be gone eventually.

If it's a bad coach, it's okay. Urban Meyer, you're getting rid of him eventually. If it's a bad quarterback, listen, it'll run its course. It might be a couple years, might be too long, you'll get rid of them eventually. With a bad owner, as commanders fans will tell you, there is nothing you can do. You cannot move on from the train wreck owner. They own the team unless they do something so egregious that the leak makes them sell the team, which is not the case here, you're going to be stuck with them. And here you are stuck with an owner who has made bad move after bad move and looks completely unhinged just in his general behavior that you are not going to be able to get away from it and I don't see an easy path forward specifically now like I said when you're looking at

who is going to want to go work for this guy. So not totally there. Again, Daniel Snyder did all kinds of heinous stuff that David Tepper has not done. So I'm not putting him exactly in that category. But in terms of owner whose fan base probably feels maybe the most hopeless going into this offseason because of him, I'm putting David Tepper at the top of that list. I wish I had a prop here. Like I should have taken a cup and thrown it at my camera. Like I'm throwing it at you and seen if you flinched or something. That would have been better. I have a jug now. I got a monster jug. What? I was going to ask about it earlier. You are hydrating. I'm the jug man now. No, I, we had a bunch of jugs of water because we had a pipe burst over Thanksgiving. And then

we had too many. And so I was just drinking water out of a jug. And Riley McAty, who's my editor manager here, shout at Riley, incredible guy at the ringer. He finds the jug very funny. And so for Christmas, he got me an actual real jug and said, yeah, now, now I'm a judge. And so yeah, now I'm a jug man. Now I just walk around with three liters of water. I'm peeing every two hours, dude. I'm living life. It's incredible. And you kind of hug it, I will say. You kind of hug the jug.

I got to support it. You're getting ready for a baby. Yeah, it is like a baby. It's kind of the size of a baby. I'll pose a selfie with a jug for all listeners. You'll find it. Dave Tepper. Yes and.

Everything said yes and, yes, and yes. The thing that like really, I think is the kicker to like Panthers fans, you're just going to be stuck with this forever. Not stuck with this forever, but you're really, going to be stuck with it. He very clearly reads, listens, is online and cares. And that's really bad. That's not good at all. Thank you for listening. Yes, which, hi, Dave. When you own a football team, 40% of the people at minimum that

consume your football team, otherwise fans or analysts are going to hate what you're doing. Like without fail, right? That's what it is to be a fan. So they just like, knocking off. Like, you know, like Kyle Shane Ann's got people who think he's not a good offensive coach. You know what I'm saying? Like, it's just like, like, everybody, like, if you were listening and you let that in, and you let that affect you, it's always going to be bad. Especially, like,

that's under the good circumstances. When you traded for the first overall pick, drafted Bryce Young, the reporting out there has it that your influence is one of the main reasons why Bryce Young ended up being the pick. Bryce looks the way he does right now. Strau looks the way he does right now.

It turns out one of the future picks you traded is going to become the first overall pick in the next draft, which might be sunk out of this bad of a situation. If you are listening, like think about the amount of times we've seen Panthers Brass over the course of the season,

like clarify something, right? There's just a lot of like reactive narratives to like, oh, well, this is being said, actually this isn't what happened. If you're just going to own a team, you can't care this much about what people are saying. If you're going to own a team and be this bad at it and have the team be this terrible,

you really can't say. You're at the Jaguar Stadium and their fans are, you know, getting your goat a little bit because you're losing. Welcome to the league, baby. It's so soft. I mean, it's so soft to not be able to deal with that. You play 8 to 9 road games a year and you lose some of them, dude.

The other fans aren't going to like you. You can't take it without chucking water at someone? Probably not water, but still, that's like that. You cannot be letting stuff like that in. So not only is TEPA going to be bad, he is going to be very publicly bad on his face, just collapsing and embarrassingly bad in front of everybody and just continue to care and do it. It's going to be a spiral and it's going to be dreadful.

Keep pounding. There you go. Keep pounding. All right. Hit us with your extra point, the final extra point taken of the regular season. What do you got? Is the week 18 one?

That's also the regular season. That we're, yeah, okay, that's true. All right. I screwed up 17 things during this podcast. If you think I'm going to stop now,

I'm not going to stop now. All right, go ahead. All right. Shield, I have three, 25 season predictions for you. Wait,

2025. Yes. I did this a few weeks ago. I said I had three predictions for you. One of them was Browns to win the North. And it was like Josh Allen to win MVP. It was definitely like Hashi came decently close. It was fun.

It was a good time. I don't have odds for these because they're way far in the future. But I wanted to make sure as we do wrap up the rest of the regular season. I acknowledge that the regular season is coming to an end. I want to get a couple takes on a couple of teams that we probably aren't going to discuss for a couple months. So I have three for you. I want you to pick the one that is most likely. Shield, number one.

The Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs next season. Kyler Murray is going to remain the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. I think he's played well enough. I think getting out of that deal is a headache. I think he hasn't been nearly bad enough and you don't have a good enough draft pick to justify like, let's go through all the rigmarole of getting out of this contract. That's not worth it. I just playing for another year.

And I think he's been good. I like what I've seen from young players from them on the offensive side of the ball. I think that Parrish Johnson is a top 10 pick that really hasn't gotten talked about a lot. he looked tremendous. And he looked quite good. I think of course the year look really good against the Eagles. You've seen Trey McBride.

You've seen Michael Wilson. You've seen some of these young players have really nice moments for them offensively. Defensively, they are not good at all. But they've also been banged up. And I think that in the first half of the year, they were more successful when they had healthier players.

Kaiser White wasn't down. Lucky Foto wasn't down. I think defensively, they have a lot to do. But I think that they know they have a lot to do that. They have tons of resources to handle that. And they were bright spots, Dante Stills, he goes down with injury in this game. They've had bright spots on defense

that I think deserve to be highlighted even as overall the unit's not been that good. But in general, the Cardinals are going to approach next season as good quarterback, good coordinator, Drew Pett Singh, is the OC there who impressed me over the course of the season.

It certainly was impressive in a win against the Eagles where they didn't punt or ever have a bad play once historically. And they have good young pieces on offense. They have, I think, tackles secured in Humphreys and Parrish Johnson. And I think they have enough past catching talent,

Michael Wilson, Rondell Moore, Markey's Browns, probably not going to be back on this team, Tray McBride, where I like the Cardinals to be a dangerous offense next season. Obviously, the conference is tough, the division is stopped, excuse me,

but I do think the Cardinals have a stronger team in 2025 than people realize. That's take number one. Okay. Take number two. The Detroit Lions don't make the playoffs. You're doing this already?

I was going to wait to do this until at least their season was over. This has been kind of on my mind. Go ahead. Sorry, Lions fans. This is mean. This is very mean spirit. This is not the holiday season.

The holiday season's over, I guess. I am very worried about the Detroit Lions given Jared Goff $50 million a year. I think it's going to happen, and I think it's not going to be good. If Ben Johnson leaves and this team retains Jared Goff, which I think is the most likely outcome right now, independent of what happens in the post season,

I don't know if I like, like you said, you know, Goss got this big moment against Big Vaghan. coming up. We're like, hey, look, I'm successful without you. Yeah, Ben Johnson's pretty good. And I don't think that you can just easily replace Ben Johnson. I think they're probably going to do it in-house. And they're going to try to keep the same system.

But I think it's going to be kind of like Shane Stike and of Brian Johnson. Like, okay, it's the same system. But this guy's a really good play caller. This guy's really good on Sundays, getting the right stuff dialed up, getting his quarterback's eyes right. And that doesn't just translate it as easily when you just pass the, the mic down to the next guy in line. And so I'm worried about that offensive.

defensively. Defensively for Detroit, their big spending spree in terms of money and draft capital has kind of happened over the last couple of years. They don't have as much to show for as I think they'd like. They still have resources technically to dedicate to that. But in order to keep good money to go sign some big free agents, they have to backload the golf deal. And I don't know if I like that for them either. The golf contract really looms over this team in terms of they, if they do it, they have to get it right structurally to make sure they can still be flexible as he gets older and as they move on from Ben Johnson. And if they don't do it, they have to really be ready to reload quick because they're a young upcoming team and they don't really have time to wait for like Hendon Hooker to see if he's going to be good two years from now. So Detroit, listen, the vibes are great.

I hate to throw water on everything. But there is a crossroads here. There absolutely is. And I think that whenever they get to it, whether it's a unfortunate first round exit or it's a Super Bowl win or anything in between. like I'm I this is the year for Detroit you gotta make this year count if you're Detroit the pins are lined up the Eagles are weak the Cowboys are beatable you know for a fact the Cowboys are beatable you should have beat them last week do it this year get it done make the run because I get it's a lot harder after this that's number

two number three the New York Jets have the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft wow Aaron Rogers coming back off of a 40-year-old Achilles surgery already sounds bad enough. Now, Sheel, he tried to, this is not like a regular Achilles. I think this is being, like, we missed this half of the narrative

when we were talking about this. It's one thing to pop your Achilles when you're 40. It's nothing to pop your Achilles when you're 40 and try to achieve a five-month recovery timeline because to me, that feels like it might invite some long-term risk

for the health of the Achilles next year. I'm very worried about Rogers coming. Okay, he's going to have the whole offseason and maybe continue the rehab, but they try to get him back quickly. I'm not going to pretend to understand how tendons work, but my history from covering football

is that it's usually better when the guy just says, I'm going to come back next year and they take the recovery slowly. That tends to be the better sign. Ask Cam Acres how the five-month recovery off the Achilles went, right? He never had the explosiveness again. So, I'm extremely worried about Rogers playing well. They clearly don't have a quarterback plan, behind Rogers.

Offensive line-wise, they're still without solutions, right? I mean, like, McKaybeckton is an issue for them right now. The Interior is a problem for them. Dwayne Brown's going to get a year older. Like, they do not have solutions at tackle whatsoever. Robert Sala and Joe Douglas, Woody Johnson gave a quote a couple weeks ago that implies that both of those guys are going to be good. But when both of those guys are coaching for their jobs, I think, for the early part of the

season, you could see, I think, some aggressive spending and some aggressive all-in pushing that if it doesn't work, and I'm worried it won't, because Rogers won't be capable of playing at the level they need him to, you can see this team really enter blow-up mode. And I think, like, watching that Browns game, gosh, it feels like the Jets' defense just doesn't give a hoot.

I shouldn't say that, because the players very clearly do. It doesn't give a who's the wrong way of saying it. But it feels like they are at the end of their rope, where it's just like, how are we supposed to show up for another game where we just have to be perfect to have a snowball's chance in hell of maybe winning in the fourth, quarter. Like this like once that defense starts to break, it's just like, okay, well, we lost this one because the other team already scored 17. So I guess this is over. Like you can just, you can feel

how demoralize that defense is. And it's been a long season. And by week one next year, they're going to be back up and charged up. I'm ready to go and Rogers is going to be back. But I don't know how long you can say, you know, all right, we've got all of our young players, got all of our great players. Like Bryce Huff's going to be a free agent, man. Like C.J. Mosy is getting a year older. Like, you know, they already had safeties leave the building and safety play was an issue for them this past year. Like, Sauce Gardner didn't have the same season he did last year. DJ Reed didn't have the same season he did last year.

You can't just keep cycling in another year, be like, oh, all the defense will be fine. No, like, this is the NFL. It's not for long. Like, you don't just stay atop defense four years in a row. It doesn't happen. Injuries catch up. Age catches up and that demoralization wears on you and that unit isn't the same. I think the jets are so unbelievably primed for an unbelievable implosion next offseason.

if Rogers doesn't come back and just solve all of the problems of the magic wand. So Lions make the playoffs next year. Cardinals make the playoffs next year. Jets get the first overall pick next year. She'll, if you could pick one of the three, which one do you think is going to happen? This should have just been the whole show. You should have messaged me this morning and said,

I have three things for next. And we could have like, none of my takes were worthy of anything this good. And now we're an hour 10 in. And this is the best stuff we get to in the whole show. The Ben, Sheel, I've got three things, is a format that I'm 100% keeping. one of my favorite. That's going to come every so off on an extra point. It's a fun one.

That has a high hit rate. All right. So, let me just go one by one and then I'm giving my choice. Cardinals, I may know. I think they've played better than I expected. They've been more competitive than I've expected. Johnny Gans has been better than I've expected. No doubt about it. They still have the worst defense in the entire NFL. And I don't think that there's a quick fix for that. And I don't think that Gans is a great schemer, even though I know he's trying stuff and it's looked a little bit different than it did in Philadelphia, but I just think that's going to take some time to add some talent there.

So I think their defense is going to stink. Petzig has done a fantastic job, my fellow bald man, with the Arizona Cardinals. And yeah, I'm curious to see what it looks like. Now, listen, there's a scenario where they kind of blew it here and they would have been in a better spot drafting one or two and getting one of those quarterbacks, but it's okay. It's not like they have nothing. They can buy another year, see what it looks like with Kyler Murray next season. I think they'll be competitive and frisky.

I don't think they're making a big leap into the playoffs next season. The Lions is the one where if I had to pick one of these, I'm sorry, Lions fans. This is the one I would probably lean towards. Now, Jared Goff is signed through next year. So he's a free agent right in 2025. So they have him under contract. Now, is he going to be like, yeah, cool, I'll go into the last year of my contract.

No big deal, or is that going to be a conversation in the off season? That's obviously a big storyline. But I'm with you. I mean, you look at it. And if it's Jared golf without Ben Johnson next year and a first place schedule, like it might look a little. I think they're still a good team. I still,

they got a lot of young talent that I really like. They're good on the offensive line. I don't love the defense. Like the defense is, you know, statistically has been probably mediocre. I think if you watch them in the second half of the year, they have not been very good. So there's still enough good young talent there where I'm not saying they're definitely not going to make it.

But yes, I do have concerns about that group. next year with the OC just feels like a huge difference maker for that team. And you never know for sure if that's the case. Maybe they'll groom someone and they got someone else they bring in and they're just as good or it's just a slight drop off. That's possible. But I do worry about them a little long term. For all the feel goods of this season, you look at them next year and beyond.

And it's like, Dee, are you sure you have a long term answer at quarterback and play call? They're like the two most important things. So I don't know, not the two most important things. Dan Campbell's still very good coach. So I trust them, but that's the one I lean towards. The Jets, I don't think they're going to be that bad. I mean, think about it. They've had the worst offense in the NFL this year.

So even if Rogers plays like eight games and isn't great, the bar to clear is very low. And I'm with you on defense. I know it's volatile, but man, they still have a lot of good young players on defense. Like they have young guys up front that could develop and could emerge as very good players next year. They still have Quinn and Williams. They just still like their linebackers. They still got South Gardner. So I'm not telling you they're going to have a monster season next year.

But to be picking first in 2025, that would really surprise me. So out of those three, I am going, I'm sorry, I feel bad. But I think also the other thing with the Lions, that division, Ben. I mean, everyone knows how I feel about Jordan Love. We'll see what the bears have been a very good team in the second half of this season. and then you've got the Minnesota Vikings where their quarterback situation really can't be worse.

I mean, Kirk Cousins could just go back to the Vikings and that could be a playoff team next year. So it's not going to be as easy in that division next year. So there you go. How would you rank up? What do you feel best about? We'll finish out the show. I think so.

I think my number one is probably the lines as well. My number two is the jets. The exact logic that you put out, which is like the Jets, like their offense was so bad this year and they were still fine. That's the exact reason why, like, you can't keep doing this.

it never works. We're just like, all right, we're a good defense, and we're just waiting for the offense to solve itself, and we're going to stay good for forever, and we're going to be fine. Because eventually the front office and the coaching staff put so many resources into the offense that the defense starts to lose an edge,

and then just like regression hits and variance hits. Like, we always, like, in order to be a top five defense, like, okay, Sala, all the players, like, it's very clear why this happened, but we always underestimate the amount that, like, luck and health play into it. And just I'm so worried that if the floor comes out in the Jets defense next year, even a little bit,

then they're going to be in such clear implosion territory. It's like our defense needs to be better, but our offense needs to be better, and the defense is so good for so long, and Sala can't hold the locker room together. Like, they feel, as most Aaron Rogers employing teams feel, primed to me, the dynamite, the T&T, the fuse is coming down, like the cartoon.

So to me, I think that's like a decent shot that they're bad bad next year. Cardinals, I think are good. I think they're going to be like $500, a little bit less than $500. I think there'll be like seven and ten. It's not going to be good enough, but defense, right? Like, it's not good enough. If they're good next year, it's going to be on,

get just an average enough defense to not cause you a problem theorem, and their offense is going to be what's carrying them. And I like Kyler and Petting's role in that. I'd love if they had one weapon I actually really, like, believe it was lights out, right? If this team goes and gets like T. Higgins, goes and gets like Mike Evans, then I'm going to be like, all right, this offense can actually, like, pull some weight. I think they're, they look like they could do that.

but they need to have a good offseason or to get it done. Marvin Harrison, baby. There you go. All right. Don't we do a whole show on this in the off season or do we do like three years out? What's that show we did last year? That was a lot of fun. I have no idea what shows me do.

I just show up and you tell me. We're doing this. Here we go. I have no idea. We'll save that for April or whatever. All right. Thank you to Ben Solak. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing.

Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for the video production. Additional Production Supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, on the feed is dual threat with Nora and Stephen, and then Solek and I will be back on Friday to preview week 18 in the NFL. All right. Thanks for listening, everyone. Have a great week. We'll talk to you on Friday. Must be 21 plus in present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem, call 100 gambler, or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Call 100 Next Step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona. 188-789-7-7-7-7 or visit CCPGGGGG dot

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