The Ringer NFL Show - Must-haves From Every Round of Your Fantasy Draft | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: August 30, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck break down "their guys" in every round of your upcoming fantasy football draft. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode of the ringer NFL show is brought to you by CBS Sports HQ. If you follow the pod, you know we love analysis and information. We don't yell at each other. We don't throw out hot takes and we don't beat the same topics into the ground. That's how CBS Sports HQ does things too. It's a sports network that streams live 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they're focused on bringing you the latest news, highlights, stats, game previews, game reactions, fantasy advice, and gambling pits.

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the Dark Knight Danny Kelly. DK, what is on your mind? I'm just really looking forward to, and I say that not in a mean way. I'm looking forward to roster cut downs and kind of see how teams look. I obviously don't want guys to all lose their jobs. I was going to say 100 people are going to get fired.

That sounds terrible. My point is I'm looking forward to kind of how teams end up looking and getting into the regular season. It's just very exciting time. Obviously, with all due respect to all the guys that are going to be battling for jobs tonight, Thursday night football, the last preseason game of the season.

So yeah, I'm looking forward to the regular season. Yeah, we are recording this on Thursday night. So if there are any massive changes in the preseason tonight, which I would hope that there are not. Please forgive us. But I'm excited for today's episode, D.K. It's you, me, and full-time Craig.

How are you doing, Gregoria? I'm great. It's officially, we're just right in the middle of draft season, S-ZM. And I'm excited about it. don't ever spill out SCN ever again, please. I endorse it for the record.

Well, that'll improve my point. But I'm excited for today. We're going to go round by round and we're kind of going to go through, not quite a mock draft, but rather, we're going to go through a round by round analysis of who we love in each round

based on a 12-team PPR league and we're just going to each go through our guy in each round. And I'm pumped because going through this it was like, holy cow, the season's in a week. Not the week is in the season. But this is, it's wild.

We're here. How did August go so fast? And to be clear, we're just going to use fantasy pros consensus ADP right now to determine the rounds because obviously there's a lot of different rankings you can go off of. So if you want to follow along, just go to fantasy pros consensus ADP. And that's kind of how we're going. And typically, the reason we're using fantasy pros is because they take the average of a bunch

of websites. So we're just going with the wisdom of the crowds. which is with fantasy a really good way to do it. So let's just dive in, D.K. So we're going to go round by round, but let's start out just first, we're going to cut the first round at half. So of the early part of the first round, so picks one to six,

who is your guy in those first six picks? You're happy if you come away with him. I'm going with Alvin Kamara, the Saints. I just think with his potential for a volume boost with Mark Ingram in Baltimore now, the Saints have an elite run blocking line. I love that. They've grown more run-heavy over the years as as True Breeze has gotten older.

I just think he's going to have a lot of good opportunities to run through big holes. You know, there's this Kamara and Ingram ranked second and third in success rate last year. So you can tell like they're getting good blocks. And plus he just has an immense floor as a pass catcher. I just really like him. We don't have spent a lot of time on him just because everybody knows Kamara is awesome. So yeah, he's my guy kind of in the early first. I agree.

I don't think people need a ton of help with Alvin Kamara. You obviously have to nitpick with these top guys. And with Christian McAfre, it's not horrible that Cameroon's hurt, but it's not great. And then obviously, Zeke Elliott, it would be nice if he showed up. But Kamara, yeah, it doesn't need to be explained. He's amazing. Yeah. Let's jump to the back half of the first round of making a little harder on you.

So, again, we're doing this for a 12 team mock. So of the picks six to 12 overall, who's like your guy for the back half of the first round? He's ranked 12th and 80p right now, the wide receiver 5, Odell Beckham. I just think Beckham is going to go off this year. I saw this from my buddy Pat Doherty. He basically sums it up. O'Dell Beckham's 92.8 yards per game is second most in NFL history. Imagine what he can do with a quarterback who can actually hit him in stride down the field.

I just think, I mean, if you compare Eli Manning's accuracy over the last five years to what Baker Mayfield can do, it's just going to be a really stark contrast. Manning had a 33% adjusted completion rate last season on top. passes of 20 plus yards. I should say that's 33% in the last five years of 20 plus yards downfield, and that is 40th out of 45 qualifying quarterbacks. I saw that from Graham Barfield at NFL.com. So compare that to Mayfield, who last year had 51% adjusted completion rate on those throws, and I just really think we're going to see a whole new Beckham this year.

If he can stay healthy, I think he has potential to just completely go off. So I really, I'm really excited to watch him. I think the Browns are going to air the ball out a lot. They're going to pass deep, I think, more than almost any team in the NFL. Like Todd Monkin loves the air raid style. Freddie Kitchens was very, very aggressive as a play caller, and I just think that meshes perfectly with Mayfield's skill set. And so, yeah, I just think overall,

there's just tons and tons of potential there for Beckham. So he's one of my favorite guys in that area. Yeah, I mean, Matthew Barry of ESPN went on Bill's pod last week and anyone to listen to that fantasy extravaganza. I don't really know the word, but Matthew Barry's bold prediction was that O'Dell has the best fantasy season, perhaps of all time for a wide receiver.

I like it. I like it. Not necessarily saying that that's likely going to happen, but that's what he thinks he could be. And I agree with that. Also, I just think that at a certain point, it is supposed to be fun. And if you're between him and Julio Jones,

I get if you don't necessarily find Julio the most fun because I think owning O'Dell is just, especially now that Gronk is retired, Odell is the most fun person you can have in fantasy. And if you're having a rooting interest in him and the Browns team, it's just fun. And sometimes that's what it, that's a good tiebreaker if you can't really decide sometimes. No offense to Devante Adams, but he doesn't get me going. Everything else being equal for sure, yeah.

Yeah, if you can't split between him and Devante Adams and you're like, well, you know, it would be fun to have a piece of the Browns. So I agree on Odell. Gregorio, who's your back half of the first round, six through 12, PPR, your guy this year. My guy is James Connor. He's going 11th right now. Per Evan Silva's... Almost as much of a homer pick as me picking O'Dell. Indeed, per Evan Silva on Established the run,

Connor was last year's RB3 in weeks 1 through 10, and the Steelers returned 5 out of 5 of their offensive line starters. And it's pretty simple. The offense is going to be much more run-pass balance than last year. Connor's been treated like an absolute bell cow this entire preseason. The Steelers are going to be good. And I actually think I like Connor better than Levi-on-Bell, and you can talk me into him over David Johnson.

I love that, I kind of agree. Yeah. I've lost confidence in the Johnson I guess I just sort of lost confidence in the Cardinals' offense a little bit just based on what we've seen the preseason but that doesn't necessarily mean anything but I agree with you I love Connor right there. That also reminds me that full disclosure to the audience

so in the Ringer Fantasy League which is a 12 team league that has half PPR Craig and I are having a team we are the 11th pick. DK is the 12th pick which means we bookend him every time he picks. And D.K. immediately texted me and was like, so you're just going to take everyone I want. So this entire exercise is actually just to figure out

who DK wants. And then Craig and I are just going to use that to snipe everybody. We're not even going to publish this episode. This is just for hyphen- Ruse. So this is beautiful. So, D.K., hypothetically speaking, 12-team league picks round two. So pick 13 to 24. Who's your guy in the second round?

And I'm actually really shocked. He's this low. now Mike Evans, Tampa Bay is going 22nd overall ADP. I just think he has, like Odell, he has an incredibly high ceiling, like one of the highest ceilings of any receiver in NFL this year. He's a big play machine. I think they're going to use him downfield a ton in the Bruce Aryan-style offense. They're going to attack downfield a lot.

Deshaun Jackson is gone. Humphreys is gone. That's 38% of the target volume, just gone out of that offense. I think he'll pick up a good chunk of it. I think he's got double-digit touchdown potential. Obviously, that's not something that you bank on, but I just think he's going to have a ton of targets. And he'll hit closer to what he did in 2016,

which is 175 targets, 96 catches, 1,300 yards, and 12 touchdowns. I just think he has, if he can stay healthy, he has immense upside. And right now he's going in the late second round, which just kind of shocks me. My guy, I think he's going where he should mostly be. The person, I'm really shocked at where they're going. I mean, Nick Chubb, I'm surprised he's the second rounder to me.

That's my guy for the second round. He's just amazing last year. I mean, he was the number eight running back among all running backs in fantasy after he took over the starting job in week seven. And then he was number eight or sorry, he was number eight on the whole season. And he was number seven in points per game. So not only was he consistent, but he was also just getting a lot of high point totals. Also, if you watch him, he's just incredible.

If the top tier of athletic running backs is Sequan, Zeke, Alvin Kamara, McAfree, I think Chubb leads the second tier. He's incredible to watch. I also don't think Kareem Hunt is going to usurp his touches in the second half of the year as much as people think. He's not going to practice with the team, which was announced today while he's suspended for the first eight games of the year. I'm not totally convinced. It's not even 100% that Kareem Hunt does get reinstated. So I think Chub is an excellent person in the mid-second. Hunt also, as reported today, had a, he had surgery on a hernia. Yeah, so that can sometimes take a while.

He's expected to be back and ready to go before he comes back in week 10 or whatever, but that's another layer to the cream hunt thing. Yeah, I think Chubb gets a monster amount of touches this year. Gregorio, who's your guy for the second round? I'm still tentatively bullish on Todd Gurley, who's going 15th right now. He's going about bulls are tentative, but sorry, keep going. I think, so in an auction draft I just did, Sequin Barclay went for 65, and I got Todd Gurley for $33.

And I think if you can ever get him at that price for half of what the guys above him are going for, you've got to do it. Darrell Henderson's been pretty shaky in camp. I guess you could argue that he hasn't been playing behind the number one offensive line. It's been a lot of the backups that he's been running behind. But they don't have a lot behind Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, John Kelly. But if the Rams are tight in games and they start the season two and two, Todd Gill is going to play as much as he needs to to win games. They've said he's looked fabulous the entire preseason in training camp.

There's been no talk about him not feeling great. So if his stock continues to drop, I just think he keeps becoming a value every day. I'm still coward about Gurley, but where I am afraid that I'm wrong is that his red zone touches has just been astonishing for the last two years. He leads the league by a lot in terms of red zone carries. And as long as he holds on to that, he would still be a pretty good value. He's going like the eighth running back off the board right now. So I think that's still fantastic. But, yeah, I don't want to hurt running backs.

Third round, D.K. So picks 25 to 30. six, who is your guy for a third rounder this year, 12 team leagues? So I really, I like a lot of the guys in this round, just to be clear, and you guys will talk about a couple of them, but Josh Jacobs are the Raiders to me, rookie running back, I think feels like a very good value in this area. Isaiah Crowell, Doug Martin, both done for the year. Jacobs has essentially zero competition for early down touches, plus I think he could,

based on some reports coming out of camp, inherit like a good chunk of Jalen Richards, 81 targets from last season. So he's potential for a three-down back. And again, Gruden told Jacobs recently that they expect him to win the rookie of the year. I think they're going to give him the volume to do that. And so I think he's a talented runner, very physical guy. I think he's dynamic in the passing game. So I just really like his upside.

Right now, he is 32nd ADP right behind Aaron Jones. I think that feels about, right, based on the fact that he's a rookie, but I do think he could outplay that. Are you concerned that the Raiders' offensive tackles are the worst pair in the entire league? Yeah, I mean, it's obviously that is a concern, but for me, I'm going with volume over everything in this, and I think he's going to get a ton of volume.

So I'll take the same argument for a different player. My guy in the third round is Leonard Fournette on the Jaguars. I blatantly just ripped this take from Craig just out of his hands like a strip sack. Craig made me a believer, but gun to my head, if you made me pick the player going outside the top 25, that would be top five in drafts next year,

it's for net. He's the only player that I think could be a true three-down bell cow going outside the top 30, going outside the top 20 maybe. Health is obviously a question, I think, in the third round, I'm willing to take that risk. But between the Jaguar's offense, I think, if he has an amazing season, we'll be like,

oh, yeah, right. They weren't running a professional NFL offense because Blake Bortles was the quarterback. obviously the second that changed Fournette was going to be way better and take his place alongside Zeke, Sequin, Camaro, McCaffrey, that's so obvious in retrospect. That's kind of where I'm coming from it.

I'm willing to take that worth the risk. I think it plays all three downs. Not worried about Raquel Armstrongston behind him. And I just, I mean, he's incredible. So I love Fortinette. I've come around on him too, actually. Craig, you're a good salesman, Danny. Well done there too.

And I kind of just agree with you guys now. I'm targeting Fernette in draft just because, number one, I think he's looked pretty solid in the preseason. I have watched Raquel Armstead. He didn't stand out to me at all. Neither did any of their backup running backs. And so if he can stay healthy, I just, yeah, he's going to get tons of volume. Imagine the upside your fantasy team could have if you drafted Leonard Fornett and Todd Gurley, and they worked out.

Yeah. Not bad. That whole area I really like. Like, there's, there's, just, I'm just going to read off the whole third round. Please do. Damien Williams, tons of upside. Zachert, it's tons of upside. Furnette, Carri-on Johnson, Kittle, Devanta Freeman, again, coming off an injury, tons of upside.

Aaron Jones, tons of upside. Josh Jacobs, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Stefan Diggs, and Melvin Gordon is 36 right now. I mean, that round is, take any of those guys. There's so much variance in all of those players. It's unbelievable because Gordon could just not come back. Williams could be hurt or just be a three-down player for Kansas City. It's unbelievable how much boom or bust there is there. Yeah. Would you guys trade your first round pick for two-third round?

unpicks? Depends where it is. I would, the top four, I'd have to think about it, but I mean, if it was Odell for, uh,

for Nett and, well, I don't love Damien Williams, but if it was like Four Nett and Josh Jacobs, I'd think about it for O'Dell. I would think about that.

Hmm. Yeah. For sure. Absolutely. Thank you. Moving on to the fourth round. Yeah. This is picks 37 to 48 in a 12th league.

D.K., who's your guy in this round? You freaking shameless. Homer. I've been saying it in the entire draft or the preseason. Chris Carson and the Seahawks. He again is the clear guy, clear lead guy in my eyes in that offense. He's just better than Penny. I mean, there's just no way around it. So to me, I think they're going to continue to run with him as their clear number one. I think Penny is going to get more opportunities this year. And even if it is somewhat of a committee, Mike Davis leaving does leave 127 carries, 42 targets on the table.

So there's tons of volume to still go around. I still think Carson's going to get the type of volume he needs to be, you know, a RB2 potentially with a, you know, with the potential to go even higher than that. Plus, the CX have been hammering home the idea that they want to get Carson more involved as a pass catcher. I mean, they've talked about it in press conferences like six or seven times. It's kind of weird, actually. But he is, I've been saying this again the whole time. He's very good as a pass catcher, natural hands.

He doesn't fight the ball. he kind of turns up field really, really quickly. He's elusive in the open field. Last season, he was the RB 15 and PPR. Right now, he's still getting drafted as the RB21. I think he has, you know, potential to be even higher like RB12. So barring injury, which is always a concern with every running back, I really, really like Chris Carson.

Carson's been the best running back on that team. It's seventh router since 2017. He's been the best running back there since he was drafted. And I have a very similar pick for this round, which is Mark Ingram on the rate. for very similar reasons. And this is both like the two drums we've been beating this whole off season of DK.

But the Ravens and the Seahawks are, they're one and two in rushing yards last year. They're the most run-heavy teams, and they are the overwhelming favorites to be the two leading rushers, rushing teams in 2019. And then Carson and my boy, Mark Ingram, are the overwhelming favorites to lead those teams

in rushing this year. And yet they're both going in the fourth round. Kind of blows my mind. I love Mark Ingram at his price and my thinking on this is very simple. You either have to love Mark Ingram on the team that could lead the league in rushing in Baltimore or you have to love the people behind him

and Justice Hill is going around 130th. I love Mark Ingram in the fourth round but if not then you've got to grab the Justice Hill behind him or Gus Edwards who's all together undrafted. So love me some Mark Ingram. Agreed. All right. Let's skip to round five. We've got 49th to 60th overall D.K.,

who are you loving in this range? Well, again, there's a couple guys in here that I do like, but I went with Tyler Boyd, just because of the situation that he's in. Tyler Boy of the Bengals, A.J. Green is going to be out for a few weeks. You've got an undrafted free agent. No one, even some of his teammates have never heard of starting opposite Tyler Boyd. And I think his name is Damien Willis. I'm not 100% sure about that. But, yeah, so basically, I think he's just going to be a target vacuum in that offense. He's looked pretty solid in the preseason. I think he's a good player. He's not like super dynamic or explosive, but he's just really reliable over the middle of the field.

So especially in PBR, I just like him. I think he's going to get a ton of targets this year. And he'll just be like a high floor, low ceiling kind of guy. Just you can rely on every week. Danny Hyfitz, quick game.

Name as many Bengals receivers as you can. Oh, God. So there's Stanley Morgan, Jr. He might not even make that team. There's the third receivers. receiver punt guy who's named Alex Erickson, Alex Erickson, Alex Erickson, Boyd-A-G-G-G-G-G-G-

How could you forget? Pretty good, John Ross. John Ross. Oh, John, I have forgotten John Ross since the moment he entered the NFL. I have not thought of him in years. He's erased from my memory. Very impressive, Danny. What does Evan Silva call him,

the human hamstring pole? Stuff. Yeah, that sucks. That sucks, because I really wanted it to be good, but yeah. Well, yeah, speed. Speed's great when you. you are on the field. Speaking of being on the field,

my guy for round five, Sony Michelle and the Patriots. I'm kind of cheating because this is for 49 to 60 overall, and Sony Michelle, by average draft position, is 48th, but it's a rounding error. It's a rounding error.

It's guidelines. So, obviously there's risk here because, one, it's a Patriots running back who has not been able to catch and he could get bench for being just bad or just not doing whatever Bill Belich wants.

He could also just get hurt because he fumbles one time. Yeah, he's out. And I mean, a lot of this is predicated on being able to reverse the trend where he was just very predictably in for run plays and they wanted to get him involved in the passing game, which is a cool thing if that happens. But if he's not successful, it could just lose playing time. So there's risk here. However, I love the upside because he is a great candidate to lead the league in rushing touchdowns this year. I mean, we've talked about how Bill Barnwell pegged him as the number one candidate for more touchdowns this year based on positive regression. Yeah, based on how many explosive plays, which are runs to 20 yards he had last year, versus how many touchdowns he produced.

And he was obviously a huge big play per person, a runner in college. So I think Sony Michelle could be a really great value this year. I mean, it's unbelievable. He could be a six-round pick that seriously could lead the league in touchdown. So I love that one. So kind of like what Craig said earlier, you could have Gurley Fournette. To me, if you have Gurley-Fornet and Michelle have two of those three workout, that's unbelievable to me. I think the fifth round is juicy.

If you look at some of the guys right now that are going in the fifth round, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Cup, James White, Philip Lindsay, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, O.J. Howard, Evan Ingram, A.J. Green, Mike Williams and DJ Moore, plus Aaron Rogers. That is an amazing group. Like, I really loved the fifth round. I had a really hard time choosing one of these guys because I like pretty much all of them. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break. Today's episode is brought to you by Flora and Decor. Don't miss out. Floor and decor is the only one-stop flooring shop that keeps general contractors,

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me to skip the lines. That's discount tire.com. Discount tire. They'll get you taken care of. All right, round six, which is 61 to 72, is kind of the exact opposite. We kind of both hate this round. I wouldn't say hate. It hates a strong word. I feel much less confident in it. I'm just going to read down round six right now. So this is 61 through 72. Toree Cohen, Alshon Jeffrey, Baker Mayfield, Kevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry, Hunter Henry, Alan Robinson, Austin Eckler, Robbie Anderson, Kenyon Drake, Matt Ryan, Jared Cook. Every single one of those people to just rattle this off quickly, I can see being a tough value because just looking through them, to me, Austin Echler is fools gold if Melvin Gordon

does return, and that's a little too high for him. Tevin Coleman, same deal if Matt Brayda kind of overtakes him a little bit, and 49ers' offense is not as good as it is. I mean, it could be a train wreck with this inexperienced receivers and all the injuries they have a receiver. Jarvis Landry could totally become buried in a deep team. Baker Mayfield, I love, but it's probably a little too hype for that price. Kenyon Drake's already kind of hurt.

Robbie Anderson could be awesome if he has rapport, Sam Donald, but you could also see him get a better report, Jameson Crowder. Alan Robinson, same deal in Chicago. I don't, if you think the Bears' offense will get better, I love it, but Shcherbisky, I really don't believe in. And I think Anthony Miller could be a better value 60 picks later. So it kind of just leaves me at the tight ends. And I kind of like Jared Cook.

So who's your guy from that group, D.K.? I mean, ultimately I went with Alshan Jeffrey, who I think a lot of people are sort of forgetting about a little bit just because he was injured for a little bit last week. But I still think he's a very good player. I think Wentz coming back and being healthy will target him a bunch. And Contrater, I think there's sort of this belief out there that Wentz didn't like passing to Alshon Jeffrey.

Wentz posted 11.7 pass rating when throwing to Jeffrey last year. and per PFF's Daniel Kelly, excellent name, by the way, Jeffrey's PPR points per game average is two points higher with Wence at quarterback than without. So ultimately, I like Jeffrey a lot in that range. He's kind of one of the guys that I picked out. I do like Hunter Henry too. But like overall, this group makes me nervous in general.

I just, this round I don't love. You've got the other Daniel Kelly. You know there is another Danny Haifitz. He was the drummer for a band called Mr. Bungle. You know that? I'm going to make that the new intro music. That's, if you Google it. Yeah, if you get, there you go.

Mr. Bungle? Oh, wow. I know. Craig, you got to, who's your guy from this round, this wasteland? Hunter Henry and then I'm dragging in Evan Ingram from the round above him just because I wanted to talk about them collectively. I just think they're, so they're going as the tight end five and six. And I think they could, in theory, finishes the tight end two and three potentially under Travis Kelsey. And they're going 30 picks later than Ertz and George Kittle.

So just with Ingram to be quick, his four games without. OBJ last year. He had three catches 77 yards, eight catches 75, six catches for 87 yards, and five catches for 81 yards at a touchdown. He's got no golden Tate as well for the first four games. He could lead the tight end. More like nolden Tate? That was pretty weak. I'm going to be honest, but we'll keep it. Evan Ingram could lead tight ends and targets for the first half of the season, I think, and is well worth his draft position at 57 right now. And the next Hunter Henry, I don't know what goes on with the Chargers, but like they, are just magnetic to injuries and everyone always gets hurt.

Keenan Allen already having injury issues. Obviously, no Melvin Gordon there. And the Chargers have the second easiest schedule for tight ends this season, according to fantasy pros. And Hunter Henry is just one of the most athletic guys in the league. And I think the fact that no one has seen him play for a while is actually limiting where he's getting drafted right now when it shouldn't. I mean, athletically and just like his profile as a pass catcher,

he's the kind of guy who could end up looking like Kittle. just in terms of like their body type, their athleticism, their size, their red zone prowess and all that. So yeah, but the injury thing does worry me a little bit, but I mean overall, super talented guy.

Kittle is the person who's tape. He said he studied the most while he was out with the injury. And to the Evan Ingram thing real quick, if you wanted to make an argument for Evan Ingram above Hunter Henry and O.J. Howard on the bucks, then it's OJ. Howard and probably Hunter Henry are not going to be

the number one receiver the way that Ertz, Kelsey, or Kittleware last year. Evan Engram has the best chance of being the fourth member of that group where he's a tight end, but he's actually the team's number one receiver. Yeah, that's a good point. I like that. Moving on to the seventh round. So this is pick 73 to 384 DK.

Who's your guy for this round? Yeah. And so again, like the sixth round, I feel like is just kind of sandwiched in between a couple rounds that I love. I love the seventh round. I'm just going to read them off again because this is just, to me, had tons and tons of value in this group. Josh Gordon, Miles Sanders, Darius Geis, Will Fuller, Carson Wentz,

Sammy Watkins, Eric Ebron, maybe throw him out of there, Vance McDonald, Duke Johnson, Christian Kirk, Dedy Westbrook, and Stony Exchebord. I like 11 out of those 12 guys. And the guy that I went with in this section is Duke Johnson. I just think, you know, obviously with Lamar Miller getting hurt, Duke Johnson just being traded over there for a third round pick, just gives him an immense upside as a belkow back in that offense. great pass catcher.

We have kind of forgotten how good he is on the ground as a runner. He's kind of just one of those guys that, you know, his ADP might not have risen high enough yet. I think he's, you know, potential three-down back for them, and he has a ton of value. So that's the guy I'm going with in that round,

but I love them all, really, other than Ebron. What about round eight? So picks 85 to 96. Who's your eighth rounder? In that group, I like Darrell Henderson, the Rams.

And I will say, like, obviously I'm a little more, confident in Gurley now, just based on kind of the reports and just what they're planning on how they're planning on using. But I think Henderson does have standalone value. And I think it's going to be as a pass catcher. I think he's just a really talented pass catcher. They can use him in that offense. The Rams, more than any team, maybe in the NFL, know how to target their running backs on play action. Well, the chiefs are obviously another one that does that really well. But

the Rams use a ton of play action and then pass to their running. backs, like the little leakout routes. And I think Henderson will be elite in that area. Obviously, Gurley's going to be a big factor there, too. But I think someone threw out the Chris Thompson in the McVeigh offense back in the day comp, and that's kind of how I'm thinking about it. Anderson's got that Chris Thompson, like, roll. Our man, Vincent Boncini, from the athletic, expects Darrell Henderson to handle about

9 to 12 touches per game. There you go. And so that, like, to me, that's eighth-round value there. like he's got a role in the offense and end if Gurley, if his knee does go bad, like Henderson has league winning potential, you know what I mean? So I like that right there. Hey, DK, you know who's not a pass catching pet thread off of play action? Who's that? My guy, Latavius Murray for this round. Not a pass catcher, but he's going right now as the 34th running back off the board. And if he has anything close

to the Mark Ingram role in New Orleans this year, he's a steel. So he's, Ingram obviously left for Baltimore. Murray is now there. Ingram, when he's with Kamara, never finished lower than the RB 22 across the stretch when he was playing. And then he was like RB 50. He was the 15th best running back a few times and then even six best when Kamara first showed up. Meanwhile, Latavis Murray is going like the 34th best running back. So even if he gets anywhere near what Ingram was doing, he's just an unbelievable value. And then if he gets goal line work, he could just be an absolute steal. So that's the person I, that's the person I, that's the, main person I really salivate around in this round. I so I I fall victim to this all the time in

avoiding guys in fantasy football that I don't think are very good players like I don't think Murray is a very dynamic runner no but his his role and his position in that offense makes him such a good value right there I totally agree with you I think he has he could completely outplay his ADP this is often the the fallacy that Robert Mays and Kevin Clark fall victim to, which is that they try to draft good players, which is, you know, I mean, it's not how you play fantasy football, what are you doing? I fall for it too, man. Every year, I just try and get guys that I think are good, but you really have to play the

volume game, and I think that's a good example of it. Craig, who's your guy in the eighth round? Jared Goff, he was... Oh, speaking of players who aren't that good. How dare you? Ho! How dare you? I just got that in you. Best two QBs in league.

Golf was the QB6 last year, and he's getting drafted as the QB10, and he got Cooper cut back. And he is the eighth easiest schedule for quarterbacks, according to fantasy pros. And I don't know why he's going as the QB10. Simple math, everyone. It's simple math. And that's an average. The truth is that he was like a top three quarterback for the first 12 weeks and that's

created for the final fantasy playoffs. So he could even be way better than six this year. Who's your guy in the ninth round? So picks 97 to 108. There's several guys in this group that I like. I'm going to go with Matt Breda, the 49ers. By the way, I was told that I was saying Breedda incorrectly. I was saying it Matt Brida and I was told it's Brita so I'm going to go with that.

You idiot! He is, to me, he's the RB1B kind of in that backfield with Kevin Coleman. We don't exactly know how the split is going to work. He might be the better player. He might be a little more dynamic. I think he can factor in the run game and the past game. He's really explosive. For all we know, he could be a starter midway through the season.

And right now, his ADP is 108, you know? So I think that is a great value. The best way to spot, and I got this from J.G. decoration. The best way to spot a breakout candidate at running back is to look at guys, look at guys that are in uncertain backfields that have had some production in the past that are going to be in a good offense. And I think he kind of ticks all three of those boxes. So he's a, he's a guy I think you can definitely kind of look for in that ninth round, ninth round. Love Brita, but the person I love in the ninth round is my guy, Marquez Valdez Scantling.

I think it's either him or Geronimo Alison of a huge value this year. Last year is Allison for me. but it's Devante Adams is obviously the number one guy in the outside there. So Allison is going to be in the slot this year and then Valdez Scantling will be on the outside. I think MVS is the guy who emerges as the real number two. He's six foot four. He's 206 pounds. Runs of 437 40-yard dash. That's a 97th percentile speed score, which is your 40-yard dash accounting for your height and weight.

And plenty of size and speed guys have burned out and not done anything. But he has that. And he's the route running. He has the separation, which that's more important to becoming. receiver and he's got a connection with Rogers. That's an unbelievable thing to have after your rookie year. I am all over him for his second year. So love, love MVS. I'm with you. Going to the 10th round, so this is 109th overall 120th. D.K., who are you looking at now once we get to double digits? So the 10th round for me has been about Lamar Jackson. I mean, I just think

right now his value is far too low for what he has, like his potential to be this season. It comes down to what a lot of people call the Konami Code of Fantasy Football, and that means that rushing value is so, so important in fantasy football for quarterbacks. And Lamar Jackson has elite upside as a rusher. Last year, he started seven games, rushed 147 times, and gained 695 yards, so almost 700 yards in seven games. And so if you look back, and this is another staff from JJ Zacharyson, and there have been eight instances since 2000 of quarterbacks running for 700 or more yards.

And in eight instances, or sorry, and in those eight, seven of them finished top five in fantasy scoring. So if you think he can get 700 yards, there's a very good chance that he's going to be a top five quarterback this year. And that doesn't even really account for his potential as a passer. Like if he takes a leap as a passer, he has true overall QB1 upside. But his floor is, I wouldn't say his floor is top five. He definitely has very good top five potential just based on his rushing alone. But if you add in, like, if he takes a big jump as a passer, I mean, it's like the sky is the limit with this guy. He could be like a Cam Newton MVP season.

I'm not saying he's going to be that good, but like fantasy wise, his stats could be outstanding. He'd be a fantasy MVP for sure. If he shatters the record for rushing attempts by quarterback. So he's a guy that I think insane value in the 10th round. You know, if you subscribe to the late round quarterback philosophy, which I do, he's a guy that I've taken a lot in drafts this year. Love that. Craig. Who's your 10th rounder that you're all over? I just wanted to toss out Geronimo, Allison. Just for the same reasons you said, Scantling. Just one of those two guys is going to blow ups. And if you can't get one, I'll get the other. Love that. Totally.

Round 11. 121 overall to 132. So this is where we're really getting into just showing. shoot for the moon stuff. D.K., who do you like there? I really like Darwin Thompson, the Chiefs running back. He is really, really explosive rookie. He's already showed out a lot in preseason. He looks physical, explosive. He can factor in the passing game. It looks like he's already passed Carlos Hyde on the depth chart. He's probably going to be the number two there. If Damien Williams goes down, again, he's like a league winning type guy. I mean, the Chief's offense running back, it's like printing money. in that offense.

And so getting him in the 11th round, it's not going to cost you a lot, but it has tons and tons of upside. I really, really like Darwin Thompson this area. Yeah, any week that Damien Williams misses, it seems like Durham Thompson's an automatic top 20 running back and probably higher.

Craig, who do you like in the 11th round? I like Michael Gallup on the Cowboys. There's been a lot of uncertainty with this Amari Cooper foot injury. It's been described as plantar fasciitis. It's been described as a strained heel. and Plantaver Shida specifically is a little scary and Michael Gallup has been getting rave reviews listen to the NFL show with Mays. He talks about it

and Gallup's really talented he posted 15.4 yards per catch last year which was 12th in the league. He's more of a deep threat you can really stretch the offense for Dak and the Cowboys into the New Kill and Moore offense and I just think... Can't wait to see that by the way. Yeah, I think he's a good bestball kind of player, maybe some big weeks and small weeks but definitely worth a bench dash on your team.

I love this because it checks two boxes for me. It's a rookie receiver. Everyone forgot about in year two, even though it's like you should be more excited in year two. And then he's also someone who's been overshadowed by a different camp story by Zeke Elliott. Yeah. I think, and the other thing about this, too, I think, and you touched on this,

but like, Dak Prescott's been getting outstanding reviews in the preseason. And if he has a breakout year as a passer, that's going to, like, you know, like the rising tide raises all ships or whatever the expression is. I think he has a potential to just be a much, more consistent fantasy factor in the league this year. So I really like that one too. All right, DK. 133rd overall, the 144. This is round 12, rounding out the bench. Who's your guy in round 12? This guy's gotten a lot of buzz. Tony Pollard of the Cowboys. And he's, I think he's

primarily one of the best handcuffs in the NFL this year, just because if Zeke does, end up holding out for a long time, you've got guaranteed sort of bell cow. I'm not guaranteed, but pretty clear bell cow potential for Pollard. He's looked really, really good in the preseason. Taking all 22 of Dax, he's been in there for all 22 of Dack Prescott snaps this preseason. So he is locked in as the RB1 if Zeeke doesn't play. Even if Zeeke does play, though, I think he has a potential to be kind of a change of pace guy, sort of in the same mode as Daryl Henderson, like use him as like a Chris Thompson pass catching type guy, get him involved. He was essentially a slot receiver in college, which is why no one really ever heard of him.

He was like the third string running back for his team in college. And so I think he's got skills as a pass catcher he can line up all over the formation. So he's a really interesting guy to me in round 12. Like that's that's an easy pick right there in round 12. I had Anthony Miller here for the Bears, but Jerry Jones said today, suggested, hinted that Zeke Elliott could hold out the first six weeks of the year, in which case, Pollard was the no-brainer pick here, a higher, honestly. round 13 145th overall to 156 DK who do you like there I love Jameson Crowder in this range I think he's gonna be and what we've heard recently there was a really great article on ESPN about the

Adam Gase offense what they want to run with Sam Darnel I wrote about that this week at the ringer.com how Darnold has breakout potential I think what they want to run is sort of similar to what Gase ran with Peyton Manning in Denver which is a lot of three wide sets, a lot of shotgun, uptempo, get Darnold in the rhythm, play to his strengths. That's what he's used to playing from high school to college. He said he's stoked to be able to be playing in this offense. I think Crowder could potentially play sort of the West Welker underneath option, you know, the really fast, get a ton of targets.

Well, first of all, I'm not saying the Jets are going to have the Broncos offense, so it's not a one-to-one thing in terms of volume, clearly. But just in terms of what he does over the middle of the field, kind of like open up, you know, get open, a lot of crossing routes. They love doing crossing routes and sort of just, I think he could have a lot of volume in terms of the target share in that offense right now. I don't think the ADPs necessarily add up. Robbie Anderson right now is wide receiver 30, ADP of 69.

Jameson Crowder, wide receiver 56. He's going almost, oh, let's see, 80 less. He's 147 right now. So that to me is just, I don't think that adds up. I think he's going to outplay his ADP by a lot. And so I'm really targeting Crowder in the later rounds. Every season, there's a couple teammates that you look two or three weeks into the area.

Like, oh, we had their ADPs backward. That's one of their situations where it's possible. For me in the 13th round, I'm looking at Josh Allen or Mitchell Trubisky. It's what we were talking about earlier in that Russian quarterbacks with high flow. floors. Don't watch them play. Neither are going to be pretty. Don't watch Josh Allen. Don't watch Mitchell Trubisky. Just look for their points at the end of the game. Close your eyes. Grin and Barrett. And you'll be pleasantly surprised. Josh Allen was a league winner down the stretch is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks. Tribisky had like two incredible 40 point weeks.

And then you mix a match with Lamar from the 10th round or maybe Jared Gough in the ninth. I love that as a combo and love that high rushing floor. Absolutely. So round 14, this is probably the last bench spot you've got. So how do you fill out that bench, D.K. I really like Justice Hill in this area. And this is, I mean, it's basically just piggybacking on what you had to say about Mark and Grum. I think that offense is going to run the ball a lot. I think Justice Hill has a chance to be the number two in that offense. Obviously, you know, with Gus Edwards and kind of ticks and whoever ends up making the team, I don't really know how it's going to all shake out. But Justice Hill has looked awesome.

And I think he brings, you know, pass catching upside. He's very explosive. And so I just like him, You know, as like a guy who's going to kind of come out of nowhere and be really, you know, a bigger part of that offense. I think people think. Yeah, again, a freak with spark, which stands for speed, power, agility, reaction and quickness. So just unbelievable on those metrics. So, but I'm sticking with that with handcuffed city. So I love Justice Hill as a handcuff for Mark Ingram. But I heavily endorse handcuffing the following guys.

If you draft Alvin Cook in the second round, I think you've got to draft Alexander Madison. I think he would be a top 20 running back if Cook went down. Top 10 for if you have David Johnson, I think Chase Edmonds would be a top 10 back in Arizona. I highly recommend handcuffing him. And then last, this is a little more surprising, but I think this is a huge one.

Devante Freeman in Atlanta, he could have a huge season, but obviously injuries have held him back the last couple years. Ito Smith has been projected to be the backup, but I think Brian Hill is far more talented and it seems like he's the real backup. I would draft Brian Hill if he had Devante Freeman. I think all those handcuffs are pretty important.

Yeah, and that's the spot where you do it. You know who else I really like in this group is Mughal Hardman of the Chiefs? Yeah, you can handcuff receivers. Just grab really athletic fast guys in the Chiefs offense as a rule. Because, I mean, he's already looked really good in the preseason. He scored a couple touchdowns. I think they'll figure out ways to use his speed. I like that.

Craig, round 14 advice. Who's your guy? Not Jordan Reed. Just don't do Jordan. read. I agree. Round 15 defense. I mean, you need a defense at this point. I'm, I think I'm the only

one in this pot who actually stands for defenses, but I love the Bronco. Oh, we can say stand because I don't think Jim's editing this pod. So I think we can actually get away of saying Stan. So real quick, Broncos. Vic Fangio was the Bears defense coordinator last year. Now he's at the Broncos. I think he's a mastermind, and especially with defense, I'd take a great coordinator over necessarily great talent because there is a huge talent downgrade from the Bears to the Broncos. Von Miller and Bradley Chub are probably the best edge rushing duo in football. They also have one of the deepest cornerback groups outside of Baltimore with Chris Harris, Bryce, Calhoun, and Kareem Jackson.

That's a versatile group of guys. And then I seriously think the Broncos have a better chance to be the Bears defense this year than the Bears do. So I love the Broncos defense. And you can, unlike the Bears, you can actually get them in the second last round. What's that stat that defense, like a number one defense has never repeated in back-to-back years like in forever? Yeah, it's basically impossible because what it really comes down to in terms of fantasy scoring is really it's turnovers and then pick sixes and touchdowns and fumble recoveries. And by inherently those things are very hard to replicate year to year. It's inherently random, no matter how many fumbles you force, the rate of how often you recover them is essentially 50-50.

So by nature, how many of them you take and return to the end zone, it's so impossible to replicate that. For so many reasons, it's so hard to replicate a third down rate of under 30% holding opponents that punting all that. It's so hard. So offense is much more sticky year to year. We have a much better historical idea that the chief's offense will get a ton of yardage this year than the bears will not allow a ton of yardage. Also, they lost their defensive coordinator. So that compounds all that. Yeah. All right, round 16.

Last round, D.K., who are your... I'm just kidding. We're not looking at kickers. I'm actually... I can throw out a few more guys here for your last... For your last pick in your draft. People who you would cut your kicker and then add. I really like Debo Samuel of the 49ers. I think he was like the 36th overall pick. He was almost a first rounder.

He's looked really good in the preseason. The past catching group is very uncertain in San Francisco. we don't know who exactly is going to get the most volume there. Same goes as Markey's Brown. He was a first rounder. Hasn't really practiced much in the preseason because he's been coming back from a foot injury. But in very, very small sample size, he looked really fast to me just on the field. And I think he could kind of come out of nowhere and be their number one potentially.

Obviously, it's not going to be a high volume role. But if you're the number one receiver in an offense and you're going 180 first overall, that's kind of strange to me. And then Jack Doyle, I think he's going to be. you know, one of the primary pass catchers for Jacoby Brissette over the middle of the field. And I think his value, I think he'll way outplay his ADP right now. Yeah, I like both those. So Debo Samuel, obviously, he was the second round pick for the Niners this year. And then Dante Pettus is supposed to be the number one.

He was the second round pick last year. But Kyle Shanhan's repeatedly just questioned Pettis' role as the number one receiver. And it's unclear based on what the beatwriters are saying in San Francisco, whether that's a motivational tactic with Pettis. or if it's actually in trouble. And then Doyle obviously is a tight end who, well, it's not so obvious. He split a lot of time with Eric Ebron.

Ebron had like 13 touchdowns last year, but was out snapped and out targeted and had fewer routes than Doyle in the five games they played together. So I like those both as flyers. And I don't even know if I draft those players. I think those are guys that I would slice my kicker and add in the week between now and Sunday, which is usually something I like to do unless you actually grab someone you care about, which in which case you should just not have commitment issues.

And just slice your kicker, man. It's okay. Don't worry about it. Fair enough. So wait, Dekat, who are these people looking through everyone we just talked about? Will you be most bummed when Craig and I just completely snip them from you in the regular fantasy draft? Oh, man.

I'm not telling you that. Who would be most upset when we grab them right in front of your face? Please speak clearly into the microphone. Chris Carson. Okay. Oh, yeah. We're totally going to do that. Duke.

Johnson, Darrell Henderson, and Lamar Jackson. I'm not even going to lie. I love all those guys. Noted. Hopefully you guys just don't get a chance to snipe me on any of those because I'll take them a round early. All right. We'll note that as well. Thank you, D.K., for all the advice. Craig, we're going to plot this out ourselves. And thank you to everyone for listening. Best of luck in all your drafts. And we will see you guys next week. Today's episode is brought to you by Floor and Decor. Floor and Decor is where the pros. go for tile, wood, stone, and installation materials. But the best part about floor and decor is their pro services and loyalty reward program. From the dedicated pro hotline to the exclusive pro app, your floor and decor team is just a touch away.

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