The Ringer NFL Show - MVP Ballots and Looking-Back Time Capsule Takes | Dual Threat

Episode Date: December 21, 2023

Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz open by discussing the latest news of Aaron Rodgers getting a roster spot on the Jets, followed by picking their MVP ballot. Then, they close out the show by looking back at their preseason time capsules. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifetz and Danny Kelly, every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Hello, and welcome to Doolfret. I'm Ramos Diati. We are here for what is going to be our last midweek show of 2023. Can you believe it? We are going to be off next week in between the Christmas holiday and New Year. It just felt like, we deserve to break. Felt like everybody should be

with their families and having nice holiday time and not listening to us yell about the MVP race. But don't worry. We're going to do that this week. Right, Stephen? That's right. I think they just need a break from me yelling about Brock Purdy all the time.

It's a much need to break. I disagree. I don't feel like I need a break. And I'm here with you every week, twice a week. So I feel like I get to be the judge of that. Before we talk about the MVP race, because we are going to spend a chunk of this show going through the candidates, seeing who's got a real case to be made here, and who doesn't, we have a little bit of news to get to, which is that Aaron Rogers, or Aaron Rogers's potentially unprecedented comeback bid has unfortunately fallen a little bit short of his lofty expectations. Rogers said on Tuesday on the Pat McAfee program that he is just not realistically going to be able to play this season today on Wednesday because we're recording this on Wednesday. The Jets actually did activate him to their 53-man roster so that he can continue to practice through the rest of the season, but he's not going to play.

Stephen, what was your reaction to all of this Rogers news? Just more of the same that we've been seen over the last, what, nine months, whenever the trade happened, he just has a stranglehold over this organization. He runs the organization, or at least that's how it appears from the outside looking in. Like, wasting a roster spot on a player who himself said it was kind of ridiculous to think that he could come back from this injury just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I get the idea of getting him out on the practice field, working with his teammates to build chemistry for next year.

don't know what this receiving core is going to look like next year. And is work in December of 2023 going to pay off in September of 2024? I don't know. It just seems like this is another move feeding his ego, placating him, keeping him happy in ways that Green Bay never would. And that's the one thing the Jets could offer him. The Jets could offer him autonomy. They could offer him a voice in the room. That's all they could offer him. They couldn't offer him a good offense line. They couldn't offer him a good coaching staff. They couldn't offer him a winning team, a winning pedigree. That's why he came here and like he's exercising that right that New York kind of just gifted to him. Yeah, I mean, look, I, football is a very bottom line business and there are

a lot of sad stories. It is pretty rough that some roster margin player is getting cut five days before Christmas so that Aaron Rogers can run around on the practice field. And intersect quarterbacks. Three weeks play scout team linebacker for the Jets for the last three weeks of the season. Now, look, I mean, again, it's a cruel business sometimes. And I suppose I can see the justification of he is their quarterback. They've invested so much in him. They obviously lost this season.

They want as many reps as they can get. But that's a bummer. That's a bummer if you're that guy. I would be a little pissed. I wrote about this for the website. Look, I think this was a farce the entire time. It just never seemed like there was any real evidence that Rogers was going to be able to come back and play

a month with a month less, a little over a month less, in recovery time from the same surgery that Cam Acres had in 2021 and took five months to come back from and still completed that comeback in the shortest amount of time that anyone had ever done it and returned to play. Rogers, the goalposts that he was setting for himself were unbelievably difficult to reach.

and I don't think that people really ever understood that because first of all, there was, you know, and now it never will be, it was never tested. And there was no way to test it. It was just, okay, well, he says that he's making progress. He says that he's doing all this stuff. And they're eliminated from the playoffs, so he says that there's no point in coming back.

But there's just, look, I think he's, he has enough of the history of being a disdive and genuous guy that when he makes all of these proclamations and then says, oh, well, we were eliminated, but I could have done it. Yeah, like I really raised my eyebrows at that. At this point, it doesn't matter. The more significant piece is just this kind of puts the final period on the Jets season. And I still, it's not that I will never forgive them, I don't have a horse in this race. I don't, the Jets are not particularly relevant to me. I don't root for them.

I live in New York. I would enjoy more relevant football here. But other than that, like, there's really, I have no horse in this race. That said, the fact that they did not do anything meaningful to improve their, their quarterback play over the course of the season, I think goes down as a real missed opportunity. and it was already clear that that was the case, but this is still, this is a team that is top five in defensive DVOA, top five in special teams DVOA.

Yes, they have major offensive line issues. Yes, they are not a Super Bowl team as currently construed, especially on the offensive side of the ball. But with average quarterback play, in this year's AFC, I think they absolutely, would have been competing for a playoff spot. And if you are a Jets fan and you've been deprived of competitive football a lot

in your football rooting life, I think that would have been worth it. And again, I think we had enough information to know this months ago, but the fact that the Rogers thing has a bow on it just sort of gives us a chance to look back at the season. and I still don't understand why they didn't make an attempt. Yeah, yeah.

I don't think either of us want to like overblow the activation thing being like a red flag. I think it's just like a symptom of other larger problems, which is like I said, like he, he's going to have a voice in the direction of this team. And I think it's a team. Of course. I think the one thing you realize this year, the one most concerning thing, because we did have to change how we judge their season after Rogers got her. hurt. But the one thing I would be concerned about is like without Rogers, this team

stagnated or got worse in other areas. It's like it didn't get better. And the off season wasn't just about Rogers. It was about like securing the team around them and improving the team around them. And that clearly hasn't happened. Like the only way this model works is with Aaron Rogers. Like this offense, how it's constructed. It only works if Aaron Rogers is in there. Like that's what we learn the season. And that assumes that the Aaron Rogers, you're getting back next year is the Aaron Rogers the Packers saw two years ago. Because even the Aaron Rogers we saw in the final year of Green Bay is not enough for what the team is. Do you think that's true in the sense that, like, my feeling is that league average quarterback

play would have them in it. Yeah. That's probably different than what they thought they were getting when they traded for Rogers. I think that's, I mean, I think that if they get league average play from Rogers next season, season, they will be an interesting team. They will be a competitive team. And on one level, like, I don't want to present here. Like, I don't understand. And actually kind of endorse the logic of we are the Aaron Rogers New York Jets now. And once you make that move, you do kind of go as he goes. I think the rest of the team is too good to be as fatalistic as it seems like,

they were to just say, well, screw it. If Rogers gets hurt in week one, like, wrap it up. Let's go. Let's pack it in. There's teams like the Colts that are competing with a backup quarterback who aren't as well-rounded on defense on special teams as the Jets are. So I think taking it to that extent is the failure here. But I do on some level understand that if you're making the trade,

for Rogers, if you are anointing him the most important person in your franchise, some of this stuff where if you lose that guy as quickly as they lost him, like, of course it's going to be tough. Of course it's going to be bad. I just,

I really don't buy that they had to take that as far as it did to say that, oh no, we couldn't possibly give Joe Flacco a call or give Carson Wentz a call. Okay, okay. That's a little too far.

No, I'm just kidding. But truly is it because... No, but it's not. It's not. He's better than Zach Wilson. Yes. Yes. So that, like, that's what we're talking about.

So I just, it's an unfortunate missed opportunity. But we can kind of say goodbye to this story now. Yeah. The idea that he's a recruiter, though, that's the one that I really want to push back on. Oh, gosh. Because who did he recruit to Green Bay? Jimmy Graham, washed Jimmy Graham.

He didn't even really recruit Randall Cobb. Randall Cobb was already there. You said to Green Bay. I was thinking to the Jets. Well, he did demand the trade for Randall Cob for, like, his last year in Green Bay. But I guess what I'm saying is, like, I didn't see the improvement outside of the quarterback position that you were probably hoping for it because the off season wasn't just about Rogers.

It's about acquiring other players. And the other concern is that, like, the major acquisitions on the, the passing game at least, where the three players from the Packers, Alan Lazard, Rogers, and Cobb, the Packers lost those guys, and they've gotten better on offense. Right. That's a concern. And overall, I mean, what Randall Cobb is averaging like four yards a game,

Lazard, who's on a pretty decent contract, I think he gave him $22 million guaranteed. He's been a healthy, he was a healthy scratch a few weeks ago on that Black Friday game. I mean, so those moves have not panned out, but also in that interview where he was talking about not coming back, I think Rogers also did mention he wants to be as involved as the front office will let him be. I don't know. It doesn't seem like a great idea.

Romeo Dobbs, wide receiver two next year. I don't know what that means. I saw a tweet. That was like, Mercedes, Lewis, you are in New York check, and it really made me laugh. Again, I've said it before, I'll say it again. Aaron Rogers is a lot of things, but he is a good friend, and no one can take that away from him. That's right. That's right.

All right. Let's move on and talk about the MVP race. So here's how we're going to do this. We're going to construct our ballots. I actually do vote for MVP. Sick right. And, yeah, you know, we got the ballots recently. I should say, I'm going to, we're going to go through and do it as though we were doing an MVP ballot. I am not, you're not supposed to share your ballot when you vote so that people can't tally it up and see who wins. Obviously, there's three weeks in the season left.

So I'm going to do it as you are, as though the season we're over today, just with the information that we have. Doesn't mean that that's what my ballot's going to be at the end of the year. But quick disclaimer. The way that it works is that. is that they've changed the way that the voting works. So it is ranked choice and you can rank five players. So the first place vote is worth 10 points.

The second place vote is worth five points. The third place vote is worth three. Fourth place is two. Second place is one. So we're going to just come up with our one through five. Do you want to start? Yeah. Give us number one.

Yeah, my MVP pick is, this was a tough one. But I ultimately settle on Josh Allen. For me, it was a matter of production versus a matter of, like, the value, the value question, what they provide their offense. And the second guy for me was Lamar Jackson. Wow. It came down to a quarterback who faces defenses that are just selling out to stop the pass and doing everything in their power to stop Josh Allen, that singular threat. by playing that type of defense.

And then on the other end, you have Lamar Jackson, who is facing defenses that are doing a similar thing, but not to take away his passing threat necessarily, although that's part of it, but to take away his running threat. And I think both of these guys are clearly the spark for their offense. They're the thing that everything's built around.

They're the sun in the galaxy. That was, that's why I came to those two guys. My third guy is Dak, but we'll save that for later. but I ended up picking Allen just because I think he's just been that much better of a passer and I think that matters more. I think that moves the needle more

and I know the record isn't where it should be or where we thought it would be but I really think if you take Josh Allen off that team I think they have three wins. I think they have three wins this year. Yeah. So that's really interesting. You and I have the same top three

but not in the same order. I put Lamar first. which I'm fine with. And the reason is just, like, I think the most helpful way to think about MVP, because it's such a warped definition, right? Like, of course, value is so affiliated with the quarterback position, but then sometimes standout players who are deserving at other positions can't win and blah, blah, blah, blah.

We all know all that. I think the most helpful way to think about it, is who changes the way that they have to be defended the most. Right, yeah. Like, who actually alters the spatial dynamics of the field. And I don't think there's a player who does that in the same way that that Lamar Jackson does and can in the entire NFL. Our pal Ben Solac the other night tweeted out that after, the Jaguars game where Lamar had 171 yards passing and 97 yards rushing,

he was on pace for 3,770 passing yards and 900 rushing yards this season, which has never been done before in NFL history. So just on a statistical level, there's your evidence of the fact that this is someone who is capable of things that we've never seen before. But I also just think that the eye test of that game is a really good argument for why he's so deserving of this because they faced a lot of pressure. He was pressured on half of his dropbacks.

And he just can always improvise when they need him to. He plays so well within structure. But when he needs to average close to four. seconds per throw, he averaged 3.8 seconds per throw in that game, he can still be special in those contexts and he can be extra special in those contexts. And just it constantly escape.

I think this year we've seen him scramble to throw more than we have in years past. And it's really, really unlocked so much of what makes him a special player. So where he loses out obviously is in some of the statistical stuff, especially touch.

He's well behind some of these guys like, like Dak or Brock Party, certainly, and a number of touchdowns throw, but thrown. But the rushing ability, the ability to create on the move, I just think makes him unique. And we should say, I think outside of just what I think should happen, I do think he has a real chance to win this if he has an amazing performance against the 49ers. We talked about it last week, but that game is going to matter a lot.

Right now, I think the favorites are purdy by a good bit and then DAC, but if Lamar shows up and is everything that he can be against that 49ers defense and in the head-to-head, with Purdy, I do think it's going to change a lot of people's minds. So that's not the discussion that we're having, but just for the record, I do think it's really within his grasp.

Yeah, I think so too. And I think, like you said, it's kind of like a similar effect to what we saw on Sunday night when he got to play in front of a national audience and everyone got to see what he was doing for that team and like what he was dealing with. And I think on Monday when they play, if he, even if it's like a high-scoring game in Purdy,

plays really well. If he outscores them and they win, I think people are going to see, oh, this is a one-man team, and I don't want to take away credit from, like, Bateman and Flowers. Those are good guys, but we know how that offense is constructed compared to how the 49- And also, like, all respects to those players, but they're

not Debo Samuel and Prish McCaffrey. Right. Like, Odell's not even Odell, like how we think of them. Safe Flowers is going to be a great player in this league, but he's a rookie. Rashad Bateman can't stay on the field and it has been inconsistent throughout his career, too. So, like, let's actually add some context to that.

But I think we're going to be able to see the visual of him kind of being a one-man show against this guy who has the best supporting cast maybe of all time around him and the best play caller of all time around him. I think that we're going to be able to see the difference. And I think that's going to make a difference. And just based on the last few weeks,

looking at the MVP odds, like these things have flipped based on results every single week for the last few weeks. It was Hertz, then Purdy beat him. And then it was Purdy and then Dak beat Hertz. And then it was Dak. and now DAC loses and now it's purdy. Like, it's just going to flip.

That's why I think it's so hard to, like, kind of, like, predict how we're going to look at this in a couple weeks. But I think, I agree with you. I think Lamar has a really good chance. One more thing I'll add to my case for Josh Allen is they fire their offensive coordinator mid-season. Find me another season where the offensive coordinator is fired mid-season where the quarterback puts up the numbers he has

and is an MVP candidate. You cannot do it. That's a, like, that has to be taken into account. The flip side of that is that it's just still weird that they did it. But I take your point. I put Josh Allen third. I have Dak's second. And I do think that the head-to-head obviously really affects how people are thinking about this.

But I think that if Dak hadn't had such a rough game against the bills, he'd still be, like, people would still be on the scent a little bit more. and I think the overall body of work is still deserving. I do dock Josh Allen for the 14 interceptions a little bit. I think he does so much for the bills. I agree with you. Without him, that is not a good team in a way that the Cowboys, because of their defense, probably could be a little bit more stable. That said, some of the volatility does come from Josh Allen.

I am a firm believer that you take the bad with the good with him and the way that it shakes out is so far more than worth it. But the way that DAC has been, has played for most of the season, for the best stretch of the Cowboys season, I think they can probably pick it back up to some degree as they close out the season. Miami defensively is really tough, but then they have Detroit and Washington. I think he'll end on a high note.

And I just think that he's been really, really impressive. It's not quite as dynamic as with Lom. Mar, but he's got a little more to show for it than Josh Allen. He's second in total EPA behind Brock Purdy. Like, Brock Purdy has, like, separated himself. Second in touchdowns, too. Yeah, and like when you look at where his production is coming, it's coming in obvious passing situations.

Like, he's second behind Purdy in production in obvious passing situations, but there's a key difference between those two numbers. Brock Purdy's production in obvious passing situations. it's coming on first down. Like, it's not the obvious passing situations we think of. Like, when I think of an obvious passing situation, I'm thinking third and long. Third down, yeah.

The defense is in some funky look. They might blitz. They might not. They might drop out. They might do that. That's not the, like, Brock Party has the least attempts against those. He doesn't see dime defense.

He doesn't pass on third and long and all that. He sees base defense first down. The only reason that it's an obvious passing situation is like the situation in the game or the game script. and like he's throwing against cover three and three linebackers on the field. Dak is like going up against me. Also like what is even the sample size there

because when you start to talk about the game script, it's like they're winning by 20 points every week. Yeah, there is no, there is no sample size. That's the thing like when you look at their, Brock Party is last in dropbacks in those situations, obvious dropback situations. And this is based on dropback probability, which is like based on numerous factors.

The score in the game, the time of the game, the situation. the down and distance and all that. Which, by the way, that's two of the 49ers credit. It's amazing to never be an obvious passing situation. Right, right. We're not taking anything away from him. But he's last in dropbacks.

But he's fifth in those dropbacks when facing base defense. So he's seeing base defense at the highest rate. Whereas like Josh Allen, for instance, is seeing dying like 80% of the time in obvious passing situation. It's just two different worlds. And like, that's why it's so hard to have these discussions. because like with Brock Purdy, there's no split. There's no like gotcha split.

Like this is the thing that shows that he's a fraud or whatever. Like he's struggling in this area. Across the board, he's leading the NFL. Obvious passing situations. Run downs, first down, second down, third down, all that. But it's like the proportion of when he's asked to do that stuff that's really driving the gap between him and everybody else. And I think DAC is the one guy who stats kind of passed the sniff test

where it's like he's doing all this against like the highest degree of difficulty possible and he's not making the mistakes Josh Allen's doing but he still has the volume Josh Allen has. Like that's the difference between like Dak and Purdy for instance. Right. All right. So I have Lamar Dak Josh Allen.

You have Josh Allen Lamar Dak. Mm-hmm. Who do you have fourth? Christian McCaffrey. Same. Tom Brady's MVP, by the way. Tom Brady's George Kittles Pretty sure Brock Purdy

If you asked him, Brock Purdy's Pretty much anybody who is actually paying attention And just not trying to myth make at this point Will tell you that That he's the MVP And I think the best stat is kind of related To what I was just saying The 49ers past game has

Has produced 52 total EPA against base defense Second place Is the Tennessee tight at 26. Wow. That is a Christian McCaffney stat. Right. And against the run,

when they run against base defense, they're like seventh or something, and it's negative EPA, which like this goes to show, defenses are selling out to stop him. That goes back to what you said in the first time, the first part of this discussion. Who are defenses selling out to stuff?

Like when you're putting together the defensive game plan with the 49ers, do you start with Brockford? No. No. You start with Christian McCaffrey. You go to Debo San. And that's not like, like, literally defensive coordinators are not starting with Brock Purdy.

They're clearly, based on what you're saying about how defenses are defending the 49ers, they are starting with Christian McCaffrey. Yeah. And I think we saw the nature of the 49ers offense change as soon as he got into the starting lineup. They stopped running as much play action. They weren't as relying on. They could play more shotgun because of what, could do out of the backfill as an option thread on option routes. I think he he is the person

that is kind of helping Kyle and all these stars maintain this ecosystem that has helped Brock Purdy. I'm not trying to take away from Brock Purdy. He's playing well. He is playing good football. He is playing well within the system, but it's very clear who is like, who is the key piece of that offense and who kind of like keeps it together. And it's Brock Purdy. It's not, oh, that was a Freudian slip. Maybe I finally like admit it. No, it's Christian McCann. The 49ers are built around the run threat. And defenses are playing like that. Like, that's why they're playing base defense.

That's why they're playing cover three. That's why they're loading up the box. I had another stat a couple weeks ago where, like, Brock Purdy hasn't seen boxes where the 49ers have a blocking advantage. Basically, you've seen a lot of loaded boxes, not seeing light boxes, which is obviously, like, easier to pass against. And it's obviously a reaction to Christian McCaffrey's threat in the run game. I don't know how we can deny them.

Right. All right. I don't think we should deny it. I also think it would be really interesting this year. And I mean, this is not, this is, this is not something that anyone should cast a vote based on. But there is something about this season where it hasn't felt quarterback driven in the way that most NFL seasons do. Like Mahomes isn't putting up crazy numbers. Joe Burroughs hurt.

there are so many quarterback injuries across the board. Like it, there would be something that would feel right about awarding a non-QB this year. Again, that's not a prescriptive, like, people have to vote for who they think has mattered the most. And again, when we talk about value in the NFL, that's almost completely inextricable from the quarterback position. But I don't know.

There's something about this season where I wonder if, people will feel a little bit more inclined to take a chance on someone who doesn't play quarterback. And if they do, Chris McAfrey is just doing unbelievable things. I think there's probably some people might think about making a case for a Tyrick Hill. Obviously, his help is a little bit up in the air, but there's a possibility he gets to 2000 receiving yards. I think there are some genuine conversations about skill position. players in this year's MVP group. And that's interesting.

It makes it interesting. Do you have Tyreeks on yours? I do not. Neither do I. I dropped him. I have Brock Purdy. Like you, I don't, I'm not going to push back against that. I will say, I will push back against the idea of having two MVP's on one team. That's the only day I'll push back against.

Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. I got Mahomes. Okay, talk to me. I just think that it's the same conversation with Josh Allen. I just think the viability of this passing game is based on Patrick Mahomes. And I think like the problem with him is he's such a unique quarterback and he plays in such a unique way. It's kind of similar to the Josh Allen thing and even like a Lamar Jackson thing that I don't think like the advanced metrics quite capture or even understand what he's doing. Like the yak stack to me,

that will be the thing that people that are pushing back against Mahomes possibly being an MVP, especially over Purdy will push back against. They'll point out the very true fact that Mahomes is benefiting from YAC as well. But Mahomes is creating that yak like deep into a play. Like he's buying time. Defense breaks down. He finds a guy and then they run because the defense is broken down. Whereas Jack is finding,

Brock is finding that yak early in the play. Like he's throwing it to Debo Samuel and he does, it's like a screenplay's design. So I think that's the difference. And it's more like Mahomes is more, it's more anticipatory

versus just guys being wide open. Yeah. And Brock does some of that and he kind of, and he gets yak just like based on throwing guys and like hitting them in stride, but it's not to the degree that, that Mahomes is doing.

Like Mahomes is creating that more so than I think Purdy is, I will say this, Andy Reid has been very good at screen, so that kind of, that helps Mahomes, but he's also getting benefits on other plays out of structure. And then the other thing is, like, what other quarterback is going to maintain this level of efficiency? It might not be like standard Mahomes efficiency, but it's like top five with that receiving court and with how poorly it's played.

It's not just the names on the depth chart, which is a concern. It's like how they've actually played has very clearly limited his production and his MVP moments. Like, that's a big part of this is like having those moments. If he completes that pass against the Eagles to MVS, like, I don't want to go all Mahomes on you guys and be like, oh, you ruined his, Travis Kelsey's tight holof-fa moment, but MVS kind of did ruin Mahomes' MVP moment. Maybe that's why he said that.

He was really like, that was really him complaining about MPS. I mean, there was a little projection going on there, going on there for sure. Yeah. this is one of the ones where it's so tricky to figure out the right balance between results and what it would be without him. I just, I struggle to award this particular offense. And it's not because he's doing anything wrong.

He's doing everything he's doing everything he can. and the receiving group, you know, they're leading the league and drop percentage, and he's still making it viable. And that's really, really impressive. I just, they're so, they're so, like, it's just not explosive. There's so little that's exciting and feels super, super high degree of difficulty. And it's not because he can't do it. It's because they can't do it.

But I, yeah, there's a case. Also, more practically, I think people have Mahomes fatigue and he's going to need a much bigger year than this. It's the LeBron thing. It's the same reason why Bill Belichick doesn't win coach of the year or didn't win coach of the year every year. He doesn't deserve it anymore. This year I don't know that that's the reason that's the reason that Paulichick isn't winning coach of the year. But yes, I hear you. Quite like, people always use that example.

But for the last four years, that hasn't been like a very good example. We can't win. No, he shouldn't. But it's the LeBron thing. He made Matt Patricia offensive coordinator. Yeah. One more yak thing, just so I could separate the Mahomes yak from the Brock Party yak. This is from NextGen stats.

My buddy Kegan Abdu who works for Next Trend stats. Shout out. Per attempt. Per attempt. Not completion. This is per attempt. It could be an incomplete pass. It could be a complete pass.

Brock Purdy gets two yards, two yards after catch over expectation. per attempt. No one else in the league comes close to that. Two yards. That's not even yards per attempt. That's yards after the catch over expectations. Not even yards after the catch. It's yards after the catch over expectation, which is

based on where the pass was thrown, like how like this is next gen stats. This is player tracking data. They have chips in the shoulder pads. So this takes into account everything you want to say about yards after catch. Like whether the receiver remains in stride when he catches it. They have that. They have miles per hour data on this.

So you can't even push back against that. He gets two extra yards over expectation per attempt. He can throw a pass into the dirt and he gets two extra yards compared to the average person. It is amazing. So, okay, let me break it down like this. The average gain in the NFL on a passing play is about six and a half yards. So let's just say six yards just to make it easy. Okay.

And Brock Party is getting an extra two yards after complete. So he's getting eight yards per attempt compared to six. So if he goes like six of ten and just goes six of ten and gets average results plus his expected yak or whatever, he gets like what,

what is, I can't do the math in my head real quick. Eight times ten, 80, he gets 80 yards. Now let's say another quarterback completes 10 of those passes. He goes 10 for 10 and he doesn't get that extra yak

that Brock is enjoying. He gets 60 yards. So that guy went 10 for 10 and got 60 yards. I keep calling back. Brock goes 8 for 10 and gets 80 yards. He gets 20 more yards with the worst completion percentage. Just based on those numbers.

Oh, because it's per attempt. It's not per completion. It's per attempt. That's an insane stat. And like that's the thing. I'm not going to lie to you, Steve, in the last 45 seconds of this podcast, have just been me like tilting my head and being like two plus two, carry the one. Yeah, that was bad podcast.

I apologize. It's very impressive. It's a very impressive offense. Yeah, that's the key. Brock Purdy has to do 70% of what a regular quarterback has to do to get the same production is basically what I'm saying. And here's the thing. You could nitpick all this stuff about Brock Purdy,

and this is what people will push back against. Like, you could do this with anyone. You can find it. But, like, it's not a coincidence when all of these things, when you keep stacking up all of these evidence that he's playing in an offense that no other quarterback gets to play in. Like Ben, Ben Solac had the play sheet last week where he made the comment, nobody else gets to do this.

And 49ers fans took a lot of issue with that. But it's true. Like look at the numbers. No one else is playing this. This is a different sport that he's playing. And like that's what makes it so hard for this MVP discussion. A discussion of how well he's playing is a totally different thing in my opinion. He is playing well.

Right. He is playing good football. He is playing. I think he's playing better than Jalen Hurts. is here. I think he's been playing better than Jalen Hertz. Like if you look at the full body of work, he's been a better quarterback than Jalen Hertz. And I expect him to be a better quarterback than Jalen Hertz going forward, actually, like just based on how he plays in the pocket.

So I don't want to take anything away from him. I just don't think he's MVP. I think if you, I, you're not going to like this. Okay. And it's okay. If you are, if you throw 30 touchdown passes and you are the quarterback, for the number one seat in the NFC that clinches before any other team, you get a fifth place vote. Even if it's fake?

Okay, whatever. I think it, yeah. Not everything makes sense. Next we're filling out our time person of the year ballots. I'm putting Santa Claus in mind. That was funny. I didn't see that going. Who did you have fifth?

Mahomes. Oh, right, you said. But I agree. agree. Don't reward Mahomes. It gets one vote. It gets a point or whatever it is. I just bet this their offense bums me out. That's true. It's not because of him though. Patrick Mahomes has gotten to meet Taylor Swift this year. He's fine. That's enough. That's the real MVP award. All right. Let's take a break. We'll come back. We have one more segment. As the weather gets cold, the NFL offers stay hot on Fandul. Right now, new customers

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All right, we were back. on dual threat. And as we said at the beginning, this is our last midweek show of 2023. And committed listeners will recall that before the season,

Stephen and I did some time capsule takes. They have not worked out particularly well. So we thought that we would revisit them even though they're a little bit embarrassing for us.

Wait, do we say one thing in our defense? They were meant to be bold predictions. I just want to say that. Yes. predict the 49ers would win the NFC West. Okay, I just want to lay that out there. They were meant to be out there.

Yeah, but they're kind of, yeah. But they're still bad. They're a little tough. But let's just start things off. Would you, your first one, I think we should, is a good place to start. You predicted that Trevor Lawrence would be a top five quarterback. How are you feeling about this one? I'm wrong, obviously.

I think there was a time in the season when he, he did look like a top five quarterback. I think his highest ranking in my rankings was fifth at one point. But I mean, the last month. So you could claim victory if you really wanted to. At one point, Trevor Lawrence was a top five. If we would have done this pod a month ago, I would have, if we would have done it a couple of weeks ago,

I would have felt a lot better about my predictions. But, yeah, he hasn't, I don't think he's, I don't think he has taken the next step that I thought he would. And I would say that the offense has taken a step back that I wasn't expecting. The offense is worse than it was last year in some respects. And I didn't see that coming with them, adding Ridley to the receiving core, obviously. So I think it's a combination. I think it's so hard to judge Trevor's last month just because of what he's been dealing with.

He's been hurt, obviously. The offensive line isn't playing well. The play calling has been questioned all season long with Press Taylor calling the plays. So it's kind of been rough. He hasn't had the best environment. but just individually looking at him, I think he's improved over last year when he was a top-end quarterback,

but I still think he's kind of caught in between those two worlds of being like a top guy, top five guy that we talk about, maybe being elite, and then being an obvious top-ten guy. He's like around seventh or eight for me. He still does seem like he makes mistakes that he should be too experienced to make.

There was obviously the throw short of the end zone before the half last week, some of the fumbling issues. You just wonder when he's going to sort of work that stuff out of his game. Obviously, Trevor Lawrence is a great quarterback, but hasn't quite panned out. My first one was that Justin Jefferson was going to break the receiving record and hit 2,000 yards receiving. Obviously, this has not worked out very well because Justin Jefferson has played in seven games.

He also was not on pace to do this even when he was playing. no partial credit. Tyree Kill still has a chance to do this. Obviously, that wasn't my take. But he has 15, 1,542 yards in 13 games played. So there's three more. Obviously, he didn't play last week. We'll see if he comes in if he's ready to play for the last three.

if he does, it is actually kind of interesting because then there will be a head-to-head comparison historically because Calvin Johnson's receiving yards record of 1,964 was set over 16 games. Obviously, most of the

historical records happened over 16 games. So that would provide kind of an apples-to-apples look at what he's done. it is a tough road because in order to get to the record, in order to break Calvin Johnson's record, Tyree Kill would need to average 141 receiving yards over the final three games of the season. He has done that six times this year.

So that kind of production is not terribly unusual for him. he would need to average 152.6 yards per game to get to 2000. He has passed that threshold five times. The caveat there is that those games were against the chargers, the giants, the Panthers, the commanders, and the Broncos, back when the Broncos defense had not exactly rounded into form. and the Dolphins have the Cowboys, the Ravens, and the Bills left. So the caliber of defense that he has done this against, it's far weaker than what he would have to do it against

in order to get there before the end of the year. But it's still possible. So definitely an L for me on the Justin Jefferson prediction. Just want to flag that it is, we still could see a receiver do it, which will be an interesting thing to watch. I also disagree. I don't think this is an L for you.

He got hurt. And the, and Kirk Cousins got hurt. He was like, he was playing really well and he was, we were talking about him possibly getting two thousand hours. Again, Steven,

this is like, I'm like, I have to, if I'm going to say that Brock Purdy's results matter, then my results matter too. And it didn't happen. This must be why I like Justin Herbert so much. As always,

Windsor not a team staff. All right, what's your next one? Was my next one the Packers winning the NFC North? Oh, yes. Okay. I was wrong. Like, vibes-wise. Right.

Like, I was, the spirit is right. I feel like the spirit has been right so far with all of our picks. But, yeah, that obviously hasn't happened. And I will say this. Is Trevor Lawrence a top five quarterback in spirit? No. No, that's a good point. No, but he was at one point.

I'm moving the goal post here. I should have went with my other one, but my third one kind of looked good at the time that Trevor Lawrence looked like a top five quarterback too. But no, I will say this. At the time, I did have some concern about Joe Barry, and that has played out on the field. I don't think that wasn't a bold take whatsoever that Joe Barry might be bad. But I think that's the main reason why they have no shot at this point of winning the division.

like two weeks ago, it seemed like they had a shot because the offense was playing so well. Jordan Love was playing well. And overall, like, I don't know. I would take this just as much as I would take an NFC North title if I was a Packers fan. Like, you have a quarterback who looks like

you'd be something going forward. Like, that's success. But obviously, bad prediction. The lines are going to win the North. I'm just playing, just getting picked apart by Baker Mayfield, getting in the way of your dreams.

This one, I'm curious if you'll make a similar prediction when we get to next season. Maybe never wrong, just early. Okay, so my next one was that Sam Darnold would win a start, which has not happened yet, obviously. He has played in seven games, but he does not have a start, and he therefore has not won one.

I will say there's still a chance because the 49ers could actually clinch the number one seed this week. It is unlikely but technically possible. They would have to beat the Ravens and then the lions would have to lose to the Vikings. The Eagles would have to lose to the giants

and the cowboys would have to lose to the dolphins. All of that is looking a little bit more possible right now than it would have a few weeks ago, but still pretty unlikely that that happened. but if they win this week against the Ravens and next week against the commanders, they're at 13 wins, they clinch.

The Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions right now all have 10 wins, so they would have to win out to get to 13. If the 49s, Niners do that, they will have 13 men, and they own the head-to-head against the Cowboys and the Eagles and have a better record against common opponents than the lions. So they would be all good. They would have clinched the number one seed in the NFC.

They would have a first round by before week 18 when they play the Rams. I don't know if they would make the decision to start Sam Darnold in week 18 if that were the case, but I can definitely see Kyle Shanahan doing it. Again, this is someone who is very cautious about playing starters in the preseason, definitely tries to preserve starters from injury risk. So Sam Darnold could very well start that week 18 game.

The question would be how many other starters would rest? Because Sam Darnold, with the full compliment of Christian McAfrey and Debo Samuel and their offensive line and their defense and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. He could beat the Rams, and the Rams are good.

but that that operation I think would absolutely have a chance in that game even if they didn't have anything to play for that said I think if purdy is resting so is everybody else who really matters and then it gets a little shakier so narrow path but I will say I'm not declaring defeat on this one yet and mine's related so I have I don't have to declare defeat yet either I have love it someone other than Brock Bertie with star Martin win a playoff game for the 49ers. But I'm going to say this. It's an L. I'm taking my L. Because the spirit wasn't. Yeah, because that, because, you know, and that would only, that feels like something that would only happen with an injury and we cannot, no, we're not. Right.

Yeah, I'm not rooting for that. Like, I want to see Brock Purdy play this out. I want to see how this sense. Like, I'm not rooting against. Like, when Brock Ferddy went out on Sunday, I was kind of bummed. I was like, I want to see him continue to play. I want to see how this plays out. But, like, even the Sam Darnold starts, when we made this prediction, it wasn't

oh, the 49ers are going to be resting starters in week 18 and Sam Darnold. Like, that's not a bold prediction at all. But, yeah. I think it counts. My predictions. I was so clam a win on this. Our prediction was based on him getting benched. And very clearly, he has not been close to getting benched.

I don't recall. He has not. So I was wrong. I was completely wrong. This was my prediction was based on the notion that he would be a reckless player. Like we kind of saw him be when he played last year. I think he's cut that out of his game for the most part. It's still in him.

He still got it in him. And I think he has improved in areas that I didn't think he would improve it. So that one's like I'm not even going to try to defend that one. The other ones I think in spirit, I was right about the Packers. I still feel like Trevor Lawrence was, I don't know. That was outside of his control, really. But this one I'm wrong about. I'll take my out.

All right. I think I have to take a pretty clear L on my last one, although there's something in me that's tempted to try to make case. my final prediction was that Tom Brady would unretire. He should have. He really should have. I mean, and here's the thing.

Every week, there's some headline about him talking, like going on his podcast and being like, the quarterback play is so bad. Last week it was like, he was really critical of Gardner Minchew throwing too many hospital balls. Yeah.

He is like, he's clearly watching every week. He's clearly just, like, sitting there on his couch going, these guys suck. They can't do anything right. Which leads me to say, come on, Tom. Like, why not? Lace him up. I've had him in the rankings all year long.

I think he's like 13th right now. He's like right behind Jaylen Hurts. He's lingering. Yeah. By the way, the hospital ball comment. Saying that while Rob Grancowski walks around with two knees that don't work. All right, Tom. Let's calm down, buddy.

Oh, goodness. Yeah. He, like, posted on Instagram about it, too. He was really upset. He's really like, it's really getting to him. He doesn't like watching it. You know what that is? And there's only, there's one way to change it, Tom. It's his way of pushing back against the Peyton Manning thing. Because Peyton Manning was notorious for throwing, like, slot receivers into big hits. Yeah. That's what it is. All right. So I think we have, that was all, that was, that was it then, because you had Trevor Lawrence top five, somebody other than Purney would start to win a playoff game for the 49. Niners and the Packers would win the NFC North. And then I had Justin Jefferson hitting 2,000 receiving yards,

Sam Darnold winning a start, and Tom Brady, I'm retiring. Still a chance. Nailed it. We'll try to do better in 2024. All right, this has been dual threat. I'm Norprudziati. He's Stephen Ruiz. Thank you, as always, to Stefan Anderson for production on this episode.

Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo and Kara Givens for their work on video. and socials and to Connor Evans and Arjuna Ramboe Paul for their additional production supervision. Extra point taken, we'll be back later this week and Stephen and I will be back on Sunday night. Have a happy holidays, everybody.

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