The Ringer NFL Show - MVP, Comeback Player of the Year, and More Season Long Awards Predictions | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: August 19, 2020

We predict the comeback player of the year (4:02), defensive player of the year (8:50), offensive (13:23) and defensive rookie of the year (17:56), coach of the year (23:46), first head coach fired (28:58), dark horse MVP (39:13), and MVP (47:55). Host: Kevin Clark Guests: Nora Princiotti, Danny Kelly, and Kaelen Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Don't miss the action, the drama, and the glory of your favorite players and teams. Stream every match live on CBS All Access. Go to CBS.com slash UCL to sign up now for your free trial today. It's the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark. Fun show today. Noor Prince Yaddy, Kaelin Jones, and Danny Kelly join me for awards for the 2020 season. Get into not only some of the more basic awards, but also first coach fired,

Dark Horse MVP candidate. There's some Josh Allen hype thrown in there. A couple, actually, a little bit of Bill's hype in here for the 20s. 2020 season. Okay, I want to talk first about the fact that our friend Robert Mays is moving on to a new chapter. Mays has been a great teammate, pod co-host, friends since we started working together in 2016. When we first turned on the microphones that year, I had not been on a podcast for more than about five minutes. And his presence and friendship throughout that period and throughout the last five seasons has made a huge impact on me professionally and personally. He is a huge

huge part of building the NFL wing at the ringer, and that will always be true. Everyone here is going to miss him. I'm personally quite excited to see what's next for him in his journey. The first time we ever really hung out was we went to a Metallica concert, and he did the all-time Metallica guy move, which was he left before Enter Samman because, quote, he'd heard it so many times. He just wanted to bail. And that was the start of a really cool partnership that I'm going to miss working with him.

Happy Trails to Mays. And let's get to the awards. Okay. Awards prediction time. Joining me, a fearsome, foursome. Caitlin Jones, Danny Kelly, Nora Preciati. Danny asked me specifically not to say how you doing, guys, and then to open it up to the floor. So I'll start with you, Danny.

How you doing, buddy? I'm doing excellent. And thank you for just placating me on that one. My organizational mind, that's just how I work. Yeah. I know. It's a beautiful mind. So you found out, we'll start with this.

You found out you were to doppelganger on the C- Seahawks today. Yeah. Are you a little bit on tilt? A little bit. So he, I've already, people have already told me. Will Disley tied in for the Seahawks. I've already had people tell me that I look like him.

Today I heard his voice in oppressor and it was, it legitimately made me double take. It was creepy. So I'm going to just lower my voice a few octaves on this podcast. And so we want to have to like think about that too much. One of the hopes now is that the Seahawks make the Super Bowl during his career and we can get a little photo you guys. Or maybe he can. blend in as a ringer staffer. Do you remember, was it you who was around Jason Gallagher definitely was when the Eagles kicker took off his credential and started walking around with us to

pretend to be a media member so nobody, nobody would ask him questions. He just pretended to be a ringer employee. We can, we can do that now with Will. All right. Very simple, straightforward episode awards predictions. That's it. All the major ones, we'll get into sort of subcategories, if warranted, but it's going to be pretty straightforward. Kaelan, we will start with you. Comeback Player of the Year. boy um i'm gonna go with cam newton you know obviously i i mean i feel like that's a semi obvious choice i think the the other people i listed were like baker mayfield and talk early but when you really consider like what newton went through in his final season that carolina if we can even call it a

season um the fact that you know he's got this chance to kind of rebirth himself with bill belichick and the patriots i think that he's got a real shot at winning it yeah i think that that is probably going to be a very popular pick. He is the, he is tied for first in odds with Ben Rothesberger. JJ Watt and Matthew Stafford are just behind. Rob Gruncowski's in that mix as well. I'm interested to see what the other folks think. Nora, Cam Newton or somebody else? I don't know if he's eligible, but if Alex Smith like makes that roster or plays a single down of football? If he plays a snap, they're going to name the award after him. Yeah, I mean, I've seen six square inches of that man's tibia on.

cable television. So if he's a candidate, he wins. Way to bring the mood down very quickly in this whole thing. Danny started with high energy talking about his doppelganger. Now we got Alex Smith's tibia. No, no, no. I'm just giving you shit. It's a happy story, sort of.

It's an amazing story. I am, and maybe you guys agree with me, I am terrified every time I seem to do anything. I'm just so worried because I, again, I've seen the same footage you have, Nora, where I am just, I'm like, please don't, nobody touch his leg. And if he starts playing, God bless him. It's an incredible, maybe one of the best comeback stories we've ever seen from a health perspective. But I'm going to be nervous the whole time watching it.

But I'm just so happy that he's able to get back, clear football activities, all that. I agree with you. The bar is very low for him to win this award. Do you think he wins? Do you think he gets out there and wins? Yeah. Okay. Yeah.

I mean, I think maybe I'll amend my selection to say that I think, Alex Smith wins the award and the rest of us win co-awards for not passing out every time we see him on a football field out of nervousness because I certainly share that concern. But I mean, he was wearing pads today. Yeah. It's amazing. It's unbelievable. It's amazing. And it'll be interesting to see, you know, if he can get back there, let's just say he doesn't play this year or whatever. We know for a fact how good he is in the quarterback room, in the facility, to be there every day, to be on the field. We've heard the stories about Patrick Mahomes and how Alex Smith was so instrumental in the development there, along with Mike Kafka and a couple other chiefs people.

But I think that if you can get Dwayne Haskins a year of standing next to Alex Smith in the football field, even if Alex Smith doesn't come back and start, even if he doesn't even play it down, this year. He is such a valuable person to have a round that even even if this is the comeback and he's just going to be on the field and he's not going to play it down. He has a huge, huge comeback and a huge football factor for the Washington football team. Danny Kelly, come back player of the year. I think it's going to be Ben Rothesberger. I mean, if you just look at the history of what those offenses have done with Rothesberger under center over the last few years and then they went from, you know, like one of the top five offense in 2018 to literally the worst offense in the NFL last year with him out.

if he can get back in there, stay healthy, keep his, you know, keep his elbow healthy and all that, I think he has a really strong chance to do it because I think that that offense will turn back into a really, really strong, maybe top five even offense in the NFL. So I like Cam Newton. The Cam Newton one is definitely really, really, I almost went with Cam Newton, but I just think the Steelers' offense is going to be overall a lot better. And like, it's going to be a more drastic change for the Steelers. So that's why I want with Rothsberg.

I am in agreement with you. Ralthusberger is my pick. He's plus 300 on the odds. I do want to briefly discuss some of the folks in the mix here for odds. Plus 4,400, Mr. Joe Flacco, which made me laugh. And I guess laugh is the right reaction when I saw that. I'm just glad that he's in there. Alex Smith is plus 1,200, by the way, Nora.

A.J. Green is in the mix. Miles Garrett is in the mix. Andy Dalton is kind of a weird one. Matthew Stafford, I think, again, Again, the bar is a little bit lower for him because he had that injury. And it's probably, if he's a full health, I think that people are going to kind of want to default to that narrative that he is, he's all the way back. And he doesn't have to, the expectations are not exactly sky high for the lions this

year. So I think he's in the mix here. But I think Routherstber is going to be really good. I think that Steelers team is going to be really good. I think they're going to fly to a playoff spot. I don't think they'll win the division because of the Ravens. But I think it's be pretty easy to give Rathesberger this award. All right.

Defensive player of the year. Danny Kelly, we'll start with you. All right. So I kind of looked at the history of this award and tried to break it down based on what's happened in the past. So seven out of the last nine years has been a pass rusher for defensive player of the year. Donald twice, Kalilmak, J.J. Watt three times. Terrell Suggs.

And then every defensive player of the year winner in the last 13 years has been on a first place team or 12 plus win team. The last defensive player of the year who was on a quote bad team was Jason Taylor in 2006. So looking at those variables and assuming it holds, which it might not, it could not. I'm going with Nick Bosa, the 49ers. I think it's going to be an elite defense. I think it's going to be an elite defense still. I think he's going to be double-digit sack guy, the leader of that front line, obviously.

And then, yeah, I just think all those variables together. I think Nick Bosa, to me, is the best choice. I completely agree with you. I think that this is a mixture of narrative and just pure dominance. I think like with Jason Taylor, like you said, there's a way to become relevant in this discussion, even if your team is middling. I think the best way is to be a dominant defensive player on a team that's winning games.

To me, that's Nick Bosa. Nora. So I went with Miles Garrett. Ooh. And, you know, this is a little bit of a narrative tightrope. We're walking here. Right. over in my home by making Miles Garrett the selection here because, you know,

let's not pretend that storylines don't feed into these awards and how you feel about Miles Garrett, I think has a lot to do with perception of the reason that he did not play a full season last year. Despite that, in 10 games, he had 10 sacks, 29 pressures. really, you know, elite pass rushing stats in an incomplete season on a Browns team that did not go where a lot of people thought they would. I think that if he puts together similar numbers on a per snap basis over the course of an entire season and obviously he has to stay healthy, I think that and the Browns are better than they were last year. I just think there's going to be a lot

a hype around him. And I think that, you know, he was such a highly thought of player coming into the league. And there hasn't really been like a coronation moment for him. And I think there's a possibility it could happen this year. I totally agree with you. I mean, I really like that Browns team. And unfortunately, I have more picks that include the Browns. And I can't believe we're doing this again. We're calling this post hype week, by the way, because of how much we hyped up the Browns last year and we're trying to get away from that. And I'm just veering right off the road back into a Brown's a Brown's hype selection. Kaelin Jones. Go ahead. So I came down the two Steelers for me because I'm really tempted to pick meek of Fitzpatrick. But I think I'm going to go with T.J. Watt.

And again, I think when you look at the history like Danny saying of the award, the fact that, you know, past rushers are valued so much. And I think T.J. Watt is really starting to break into, I mean, he broke into that elite realm last season, but we're really starting to see the full product. I think last year was his first year as an all pro. He had 14 and a half sacks, which was fourth in the league last year. I definitely think that he can continue what he did last year.

And again, if the Steelers start producing some victories with Ben Rathlisberger back in the fold, I think that he's going to be a really strong contender for it. Yeah, no, and I like the Steelers team too. I think that that Micka Fitzpatrick, it's really interesting to me. And I've said this a couple times

in this podcast. this this offseason basically that my default for a number of years was anytime a first round pick was given an exchange for a player I defaulted towards thinking that the team that got the pick won the trade and that was pretty universal and a big value guy all that stuff if you if you want to call it analytics you can but you see a player like make it Fitzpatrick or you see a player like a marie cooper and it's like well I don't know like if you're the dolphins wouldn't you want to have a guy like make it Fitzpatrick going forward forward in the rebuild.

Like, he can do anything. That's a guy you want back there in that secondary. Even if you have to pay him eventually or whatever. I am in love with makeup of Patrick. I think he can do it all. I'm really, I'm in on the Stewart's defense. I'm generally in on the Steelers team.

All right. Offensive rookie of the year, Nora Principia. Okay. So I went with 49ers receiver, Brandon Ayyuk. It's Danny Kelly. Were you going to go with that one?

No, but I like that one a lot. You were all, you were the first person I know. to hype up Iuke. That's, that's all. I just want to make sure Nora didn't take your Nora. Norah, go ahead. So while I certainly would make a pick just to make Danny Kelly happy, um, I made this pick one because I think Kyle Shanahan is very happy to have Iook on his roster. Um, the Niners moved up six spots to draft him, you know, particularly at a position where I think it's hard for rookies to get up to speed really quickly. And in this year where they're going to have

even less practice time. I like choosing a guy who's in a spot where I think his coach has thought, you know, a lot about how to use him last year at Arizona State. 18.3 yards per reception last year, 11 of those coming after the catch. I totally trust that offensive staff to get him in space and just sort of be salivating it at what he can do for them. And I also think there's a nice combination of opportunity to get snaps and to get targets without being, you know, a top focal point. So I trust that there's a plan. I trust that he'll be able to get open. I trust that he'll be able to make some real highlight plays. And, you know, they're on national television a lot. Plus, it makes Danny Kelly happy. Does make Danny Kelly happy.

All right, Danny. Yeah. So I love that pick. I think he's going to, I think, like, picture what they did with Devo last year. And since Devo's hurt, you know, they could even expand what he's going to do. He's, he's so good off after the catch. But, yeah, so I love that pick. My two, the two that came down to for me were Clyde Edwards-Hillair for the Chiefs and Joe Burrow of the Bengals.

And again, I looked at the history of the award in the last 20 years. It's been eight quarterbacks, nine running backs, and three receivers. Um, so I kind of came down like, is it going to be a running back or a quarterback? I just think people like to side with the quarterback because it's, it's the sexier position. It's the higher profile position. It's probably, you know, it is by far the more difficult position. So I think Joe Burrow, you know, even if his numbers aren't totally, totally out of this world, I think he's still going to be, um, a very good quarterback in year one and is going to run away with this one just because, you know, top pick.

lots of fanfare, and I think he's a very, very good player. So I'm in agreement with you. Those are the final two that I narrowed it down to. But I'm actually going with Clyde Edwards, hilarious because I think that Burrow does not have the infrastructure yet. I think he's going to have some really good games this year, and I really like what they're starting to build around him. But I just don't think he's going to get there from,

oh, my God, he looks like he does at LSU kind of way immediately. I think the chiefs are going to be really freaking good, and they're not going to miss a step. and I think that he's going to maybe run away with this thing. Kaelin Jones. Okay, so if I wasn't going with Clyde Edwards-Layer, who I'd probably pick. I'd go with Jonathan Taylor. The dude ran a 4-3 at the 40, looked really good and called.

I think he's one of the most underappreciated college athletes that we've had come out in recent years. And I think when you look at, you know, the structure of the Colts offense right now, obviously they have Philip Rivers who is a veteran, still acclimating to a new system, some younger receivers outside of TY Hilton. I think that Taylor can make an immediate impact in the running game for Indianapolis, and I think that they'll end up winning some games this year too. That is a very good pick.

I think that it's going to be, again, Nora, you've written about this. I've talked to people about it. Weird year for rookies. And it's a weird year to come in and be a young player trying to make it on the fringe, and we've discussed that. But it's also a weird year for, a highly touted rookie who is going to have eye expectations.

And so I'm intrigued to see how that develops. We've talked about it on this podcast. Jous and 11 rookie class was unbelievable. They didn't have an offseason either, but they had more of a normal training camp. They had more practices and pads than these guys do. But you had Cam Newton and AJ Green and dozens of other guys were still making an impact in the NFL, JJ Watt.

And it can be done. It's just going to be a very interesting thing to watch. All right. Defensive rookie of the year, Kaelin. This was harder for me. I came down to Isaiah Simmons and Ashton Davis of the Jets. And I think I'm going to go with Simmons just because, again, when you look at the versatility that he has, the way that they're going to be able to use him within that defense and use him as a chess piece,

kind of within that defense. And when you consider the other star players are already on that roster, I think that Simmons's talent is going to be able to shine a lot. I don't know how many games are going to end up winning. But I think just because of the environment that he's, or the system that he's stepping into and the talent around him, Chandler Jones, Patrick Peterson, Buda Baker. Like, there's a, there's a lot of talent. I think Isaiah Simmons is really going to shine for Arizona this year. It depends, from my perspective, it depends on how Arizona uses him.

Because I think Arizona is going to be much improved this year. I'm intrigued to see if, again, it's kind of like what you said, what the chess game looks like with him or whether or not they just try to drill him down into one spot. Isaiah Simmons is a top 10 Sunday ticket guy for me where I want to see what he's doing. And it'll be, I'm fascinated. So this one I actually found pretty simple. I went with Chase Young.

I think he's going to have a real easy opportunity to make a big impact. You know, I love Isaiah Simmons. I think just if you're a coverage linebacker, it's a little bit of a taller task to generate the kind of buzz that usually goes with these kinds of awards, although I do like, you know, I think the rookie awards tend to be the ones where they can go to guys

who aren't on double-digit wins, teams, which, you know, I think that probably going to wind up playing into Chase Young's favor here. He was the highest, greatest graded college defender ever by PFF. I just like taking a pass rusher here. He's going to make a lot of splashy plays. They don't have a roster that's, you know, going to make him wait to get snaps. It's a relatively simple role to just rush the passer. demolish people. Yeah, don't need a full training camp

to run the intricacies of just pinning your ears back and destroying quarterbacks. Right. Yes. Not exactly hard to do. I think it's interesting, you know, Caitlin, I'd like to pick your brain on this a little bit. Do you think that Isaiah Simmons

would have more of a chance to be kind of a jack of all trade superstar in his first year if there was a real training camp or if there were OTAs? Do you think that that's going to harm him a little bit? Oh, yeah. I think it'll hurt him a little bit, but absolutely to your point.

point about, you know, having a full offseason. I mean, you get acclimated into an entirely new system, especially at the NFL, you hear so often about players talking about the difference in terms of the speed of the game. I think that, you know, especially when you talk about the modern intricacies of NFL offenses, I think that would have been like a lot better for him to have a full offseason slate. I definitely agree with the Chase Young pick. Like, don't get me wrong, like, it's much simpler tasks you go rush the pastor and just say, you know, do what you do best. But I think that Simmons is a, you know, he's a different breed. He's a very, very, you know, good playmaker and I think that there's just

there's going to be opportunity for him to make plays this year. I'm on the fence. I've picked Simmons in my head and I've picked Chase Young on my head. Danny Kelly, you go before I give my pick. I went with Young and I didn't think about it for too long. I just think he's just such a, he's going to be a dominant

pass rusher from the get-go. You know, there's people that would say that he's better than Nick Bosa coming out. So obviously a really high bar, but I think he could definitely reach that. I think he's already a pretty good technician as a pass rusher, like the way he uses his hands.

Obviously, he's explosive, big, physical, looks apart in terms of an elite pass rush guy, but he's also a technician. So I think it's going to be young. But that being said, in the last 20 years, I found this interesting. It's been defensive rookie of the year. It's been nine pass rushers,

so defensive end or defensive tackle. And then nine inside line packers. I think for some reason, I guess maybe tackle numbers is something that voters look at. I just thought that was interesting, but ultimately I think Chase Young is going to be the guy here. And on that defensive line with already so much talent, he's going to have an opportunity to really just get after it. So, yeah, I like Young. Yeah, I guess I'm going to go Young here, just to sort of stay consistent on my offseason, my offseason preaching.

I would also say that Patrick Queen has a nice chance, just because, you know, He's going to be a dependable, sturdy guy on a really good team that's winning a lot of games. It's not going to take much to be a key part of that defense and get a lot of love from national broadcast. So I think Patrick Queen is in the next year. Why only watch one Sunday out of market game when you can watch all of them? Catch it all with NFL Sundayticket.tv. Good news, NFL fans. Direct TV has expanded the service.

If you live in an apartment or big city where direct TV service is not available, you can now get NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite. You see if you're eligible, go online to NFL Sundayticket.com. And stream every NFL Sunday ticket game this season to follow your favorite team no matter where you live. Use promo code The Ringer at checkout to save 15%. This episode is brought to you by CBS All Access. Live sports are finally back. And CBS All Access is letting you cheer on the world's best players for the world's most prestigious tournament in Waifa Champions League.

Relive the action, the drama, and the glory of your favorite players. players and teams all from the comfort of your home. Get it on the action and stream every match live on CBS All Access. To learn more and start rooting from the sidelines, head to CBS.com slash UCL to sign up for your free trial now. You won't want to miss this. Okay. We're going to do two awards.

We're going to do Coach of the Year and then we're going to do First Coach Fired. First Coach Fired, not an official award, but we're going to make it one. We might have the same option for all of them. We'll start with you, Nora. Coach of the Year. So I went with Sean McDermott. And this is sort of, there's a built-in projection that the bills are going to win the AFC East. And if you dethrone Belichick, I think you win Coach of the Year.

It's a great roster. I'm expecting a jump for Josh Allen. And, you know, there's already a lot of good buzz for Sean McDermott, but I think he's just going to keep getting the love. Yep. I love Sean McDermott. I think he's definitely in the mix here. I don't know. They were so, this is such a narrative award.

And I know I keep saying that, but that's what the NFL is. It's a narrative league, and that's how we view things. And there are huge changes in perception from one year to the next. I think because the AFC East was competitive last year, it's going to be really hard to jump into that conversation. In a weird way, if he was taking over the Jets right now from Adam Gay, he'd have a better chance. And as far as the AFC East coach goes. Speaking of which. Speaking of which.

I got to do that. Hold on. Wait, wait, hold on. We got to go through Coach of the year first and bring up the positive vibes before we start getting into Adam Gays and after just getting fired. Danny Kelly. I'm going with Mike Tomlin. I am predicting and I've been kind of on this bandwagon that the Steelers are going to bounce back really, really strong this year. Their defense is a lot better. It got a lot better over the course of last season.

I think their offense is going to get back to being top 10, top five group. And overall, I think they're just going to be. a really strong team across the board. I think what Tomlin's done, you know, his record clearly speaks for itself, but finally I think he's going to get some of the recognition that he deserves

for, you know, his tenure in Pittsburgh. The fewest games, coach of the year has won in the last 20 years is 10. I think you could pretty easily put the Steelers as a 10 plus win team, so I felt comfortable doing that. Kaelin? Yeah, I agree with Danny.

Like, I was going to pick Mike Tomlin. Like he's saying, like I think there's going to be a bounce back for the Steelers, especially with Ben Rothensberger back in the fold. And again, like, he's been kind of underappreciated as a head coach, especially the job that he did last season. I can see this team, you know, sneaking into the playoffs with 10 plus wins this year, too.

Yeah, I think that's a great, that's a great option there. I think that there's two types of coaches of the year. There's the crappy coach who is able to eke out double-digit wins with his team. Jason Garrett in 2016, went 13 and 3. And, you know, everyone gave him credit for DAC and all that stuff. I don't think Jason Gareth's a very good coach. There were other factors in that season. Matt Nagy, I don't think he's a very good coach.

He won 12 games in 2018 and then kind of came back down to Earth in 2019. But then there's John Harbaugh, who went 14 and 2 last year because he built, and along with Lamar Jackson, the best, one of the best most dominant offenses we've ever seen and one of the best rushing offenses in the history of the modern game. Sean McVeigh in 2017, great coach, instantly identifiable. So there's two kind of big broad strokes when you're looking. at this award, if I had to guess, I'd say that Mike McCarthy is an option because I think he will get credit for coming in and being not Jason Garrett when they win 11 or 12 games or maybe

more. I mean, there's been a couple people from on the show and pick them to win the Super Bowl, including Evan Silva. And I think Kevin Stefansky's in that mix because he's not Freddie Kitchens. And there will be an uptick and wins almost immediately. I think Baker will be better. He'll get credit for fixing Baker. So those. are my 1A and 1B as far as the narrative of it all. If I had to guess because I think it's going to be a better team, I'm going Mike McCarthy. Plus, you get the whole thing where he studied analytics last year at his house with Jim Haslett. Yeah. Which I think people just love bringing up. Everybody should do that just to like check the box so you can tell people and up your your coach

of the year odds every off season. It's tough now because you can't get everybody in the same house now. Mike McCarthy struck while the iron was hot. Could go on Zoom, I guess. Yeah. I get who's the week who is the week 12 coach we find out has been just zooming with other fired coaches the entire year. It's not Matt Patricia. It's not Matt Patricia. I'm trying to think about who that might be where we're just like the guy's been out of football for a couple of years and we just find out he's been cranking out tape on Zoom

with a bunch of fired linebacker coaches. We'll look into it. Wait, someone who's out of the league now or like like like Mike McCarthy last year where we find out that they've just been watching film with a bunch of fired offensive line coaches. Jeff Fisher. We'll put a panel. Oh, I love that. If we find out that Jeff Fisher has been cranking analytics for the past three years in a business, I will.

Jeff Fisher's like learned all sorts of stuff about how to use Excel tables. That's, that would be amazing. In between hunts. He would be my 2021 coach of the year frontrunner. If we just find out he's been in a basement with Warren Sharp and, uh, and Sam Monson, just finding out how numbers work. He would be, we would need to do, I mean, let's make him commissioner if that happens. All right. First coach fired. Norah, you really wanted to say your first coach fired earlier. Let's get to it. Okay. Um, so this is probably, I know there are other guys up there. I have a feeling a lot of people when they make picks here. The first two guys that came to my mind were Adam Gase and Matt Patricia, um, just because there seems to be, uh, an ongoing competition between their former players of who can just say meaner things about them in public. Um,

And if that continues to pick up steam, I think that that could be a contributing factor here. What pushed me over the edge for gays is that I'm just going to read you, I'm going to read you a headline in the New York Daily News from a couple weeks ago. Mike Lubbocka. Woody Johnson can't buy the Jets a Super Bowl just like he can't write a check to clean up his mess in the UK. So what I'm opening the door to is there's a possibility. We don't need to get into the myriad factors that could go into why this possibility could be realized. But there's a chance that sometime in November, Woody Johnson comes back from across the pond and things have not been going well.

And he'd like to make some changes. There's a lot to unpack there. I will be unpacking none of it. let's just leave it there. Yeah, this is just, we're just going to move on. We're just going to leave that there. It's a moment in time. But that is a very, very good pick.

Danny Kelly, do you agree? I wanted, yeah, I would say that Gase is the worst coach, but I don't think he's going to get fired first for whatever reason. I just feel like, I don't know why they are. This is a hard award to pick because, again, the worst coach doesn't always get fired. Yeah. No, this is a pick that is about owners in a lot of ways. than it is about coaches.

Ultimately, I went with Doug Morone. I feel that the lions are going to be better than people think they are. So I don't think Patricia is going to get fired first. He might get fired eventually, but I'm going with Marone just because I think the Jags are slated to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they lose a few games early on in the season.

Things start to snowball a little bit. I think it's it's it would be understandable and it wouldn't be like a big move for them to like kind of shift things and move on with that. And so I think a lot of people were surprised he wasn't already fired. And it's kind of one of those things where it's it makes it easier on the front office to be like, okay, we'll make a change now. Yes. Interim head coach Jay Gruden. There you go. Oh man. Jay Gruden popped up on my Facebook suggested friends the other day. I'm not sure what that says about me or anybody. It was really him. I don't really understand. I'm just, I'm not going to unpack that. Caleb? Look, I'm going to go with Doug Morone too. Like for all the reasons that

Danny mentioned, I think, you know, Detroit, like Danny mentioned, it's going to bounce back at least a little bit. I don't know if they're going to be a winning team, if they'll have a winning record. But I think there will be enough time saved, you know, for Matt Patricia's job, you know, to be decided on at the end of year or towards the end of the year. And I think Morone, when you look again, the Jaguar's roster in comparison to where they were, you know, just a few seasons ago on the precipice of, you know, pushing for, you know, a Super Bowl bit. And now, you know, everything's kind of gone the complete opposite way to put it nicely. And I just don't see how. Yeah. I just, I don't know how Morone survives this year. And I think he ends up being the first one.

Doug Maroon has been like hamming it up on Zoom with their local reporters, though. That's, he does like a bit where he forgot to unmute. Don't you? I don't know. I think that's got to count for something. Yeah, there was that picture of him where he like makes his, you know, he leaned way too far into the camera like, oh, I don't know how to use it. Very charming. I think that's a great point. Doug Marone is savvy. He's going to figure out a way. Okay.

I think that my hot take on this is that of the three people we're talking about, Doug Marone, Adam Gase, now Patricia. Doug Maron is by far the best coach of those three. And that's why I like him to stick around a little bit. it. I also think that if you look at the first four games, let's just take this with Gase here. At Bill's loss, this is the Jets, at Bill's loss, home against the Niners, uh-oh, at Indianapolis. This isn't good. And then you have three teams, Broncos, Cardinals, chargers that I also, that I think are winnable, but at the same time, I think all three of these teams are better than the Jets. So it's funny to me because I keep looking at the schedule and being like, well, they might start one and seven or whatever.

But like, I don't, I can't figure out which games they're going to win. I'm sure they'll win three or four or five or whatever. But I just, when I look at the schedule, they've got a nice little tasty chiefs, patriots back to back in November that I feel like we could just really easily lead to a firing here. I will say this. So this is November for them. Chiefs on the first, Patriots on the 9th, dolphins on the 15th, and the by. I think you're looking at the firing at Miami.

They'll leave him in Miami. His old team, he probably still has a place there. He probably has some friends there. We'll leave him in Miami on November 15th that were the Jets. Adam Gais. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah. The funny thing is whenever you say that a game is winnable,

the flip side of it is that it's also loseable. And with the Jets, most games are loseable. Kevin, the other thing that I think it factors into this, and we've talked about this in the past, is the Darnold question. They're just losing time to figure out if Darnold is the guy. And if Darnold starts slow this year,

I think there would be a lot of pressure from above and from the fans and from the media to be like, all right, Gase is clearly not the guy that's going to develop Darnold. And if we wait any longer, I mean, I feel like this should have happened before. It should have happened. But I think you get, like you said, you get into November and there's not a clear, clear improvement. Because he's been getting some pretty good hype so far in training camp, you know, whatever training camp is right now. But yeah, I don't know.

I just think if he stumbles out of the gates, they got to make a move. Like, they're just wasting time at this point. So I want to unpack that for a second because I think with the Jets in particular, they've made a handful of mistakes that have led to Darnold being put in a very bad situation. Because what is a contract like for Sam Darnold right now if they were a sit down? I've got no idea, quite frankly. I hope that they do. They let Mike McHagden have one more draft than he should have had. They brought in Joe Douglas in the summer.

Joe Douglas is a really good GM. I've really liked his drafts. I really liked his moves and his understanding of value. And I start to think that I wish there was an alternate scenario in which Joe Douglas had Sam Darnold for his entire career. And they had the infrastructure and they made a good coaching hire. Brain Gase back is not solving anything. So I'm with you, Danny.

Like people are going to get really mad at the lack of development. If Darnold doesn't just totally show out. If he does, maybe Gase saves his job. Yeah. But I'm just saying that the Darnold thing puts him in real risk of being first coach fired. I think the stakes are a little bit lower because I think that people view Stafford as sort of independent of Matt Patricia because he's not a quarterback whisperer. They hired Daryl Bevel for that, your buddy, Daryl Bevel.

Danny Kelly. And then I think, you know, the expectations are just not nearly as high for Gardner Minshu in Jacksonville. So it, the coach and quarterback marriage there is really, really important. I think it's worth watching. Fan dual sportsbook has an amazing NBA playoffs offer for all new customers, plus 2,000 on any team in the playoffs to make the NBA finals. Doesn't matter if it's the bucks, Lakers, or Nets. Plus 2,000 on everyone. They don't even have to win. Download the Fan Dual Sportsbook app to get started and be sure to sign up with promo code ringer NFL so they know I sent you. I'd also like to tell you about the new Ultimate Hoops Ringer contest. There is a Fandual contest every day there are playoff games, only $5 entry fee per contest.

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Okay, before we get to MVP, we have to do Dark Horse MVP. This is the MVP award that no one's talking about, no one's got it on the radar. Kaelin. Oh, man.

Like, my thing is, I feel like Kyler Murray is that guy, but I feel like enough people are saying Kyler Murray is going to be great this season, where I don't feel like it is a Dark Horse MVP candidate. I would say, like, it would be more surprising if the Cardinals are good enough for him to be, you know, considered an MVP candidate. But that's my pick. Yeah. So that is, I have talked about this where I think the Kyler Murray is going to have an MVP type season.

But I don't think that team is good enough to. to be, you know, the last two years, we've had guys who have just come on the scene from year one to year two and become absolute superstars, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The difference in both those situations is that the team was better. I really like Cook Kingsbury, but let's be honest, Andy Reed and John Harbaugh are better coaches. And I just think that they're just not ready to do the 13, 14, 12 win thing in Arizona. So even if Kylo-Mory just becomes a superstar, it's possible that he just doesn't get enough wins to be the MVP. So I, I think it's really intriguing there. Nora, Dark Horse MVP.

Josh Allen. So, which I think this is like a, this is like a, uh, uh, uh, sort of, I mean, it's a medium roast horse MVP pick, you know, um, so the one thing Josh Allen needs to, well, it's not the one thing. There's a, there's a few things on that list. But the biggest thing that Josh Allen needs to do to be a better quarterback is to be a more consistent deep ball passer. They went and got him Stefan Diggs, who is a great deep ball receiver, which he needs very badly. He has been getting more efficient over the middle. So football outsider says that he threw short in the short middle of the field, 21% of the time last year, which was up from 13% as a rookie. And when he did that more often, he went from dead last in DVOA to 10th.

So he's already increased his efficiency when he's doing that. And if he can couple that with better downfield passing, I really do think that he can take another step forward. And then you add that to his rushing ability. You add that to the fact that he's in a great situation with great coaching, great defense. I would predict that they can be a double-digit win team, which you pretty much need to be to win MVP. And the sort of narrative power, again, of winning the AFC East as not the Patriots, of a quarterback who a lot of people, including myself, have had some not kind things to say about, you know, ascending not into an elite passer necessarily, but someone who you can really be competitive with. I think the reason I feel like you can call him a dark horse candidate is because I've heard a lot of people talk about the possibility. as sort of, oh, ha, ha, ha, yeah, Josh Allen, maybe.

We'll see. I mean, it's probably going to be still throwing balls into the stands. I'm here to say that we should take it seriously. Yes. He's not my pick, obviously, but I think we should take him seriously as a possibility for the award. Nora, I want to examine this a little deeper. How many games are the Buffalo Bills going to win in 2020? 11.

Okay. I thought the way you've talked up some folks here, I thought maybe you were we're going to go a little bolder and say like 13. But 11 is fine. That seems, that seems, that seems fine. 11 is, I mean, 11 is a medium. Now, they have a really hard schedule too. Just go like our buddy Colin Coward.

Just go 16 and out. Like he does. They're going to 16 and no. The bills are going to run away to the Super Bowl. All right. Danny Kelly. I'm choosing Josh Allen also. She stole my answer.

She stole a lot of my points too. But I'm going to, when you were talking to her up. I want the listener to know something before we go on. When Nora picked it, I raised my hand. celebration and started fist pumping. And then Danny, when you did it, Nora had the same reaction I had. We are really excited about these Josh Allen picks. Danny Kelly. When Nora was talking about sort of the variables around Josh Allen with him improving in the intermediate,

short and intermediate area, also deep throws and then also rushing. It just kind of made me think of Cam Newton in his 2015 season. Newton, I was just looking at his stats. I mean, obviously the Panthers were unstoppable that year, won 15 games. but Newton completed 59% of his passes that season. So he wasn't necessarily like the most efficient passer in the NFL or anything, but he did, you know, contribute a lot as a rusher. And that was obviously really, really important and a big part of his game. You know, Josh Allen, I think, has scored eight and nine rushing touchdowns

in his first two seasons in the league. So, you know, you could see him do that again. If the bills can take that jump, obviously, I think their defense is good enough to make them You know, they were, let's see, six last year in DVOA, defensive DVOA. They were second the year before that. So this is a, you know, this is a team that could have an elite defense. And then if we get Josh Allen doing the stuff that we can, in theory, picture him doing, I think this could be like a 13-win team.

12 of 13 years, the NFL MVP has been a quarterback and all but one has been a first-place team. So I think, you know, there's a, these are the things that I was looking at when I was trying to pick my dark horse. And I think the bills could be a first place team. And I think Alan has the tools, at least, to make the jump and all that. So like Nora, I'm not predicting this is going to happen. But at 500 to 1, I think that's pretty damn good odds. And you might as well, you know, throw a dart at that. Throw a dart at that because, I don't know, there's just some of the pieces that are there.

It's interesting you made the Cam Newton comparison because obviously Sean McDermott was the DC on that team. Brandon Bean was in the front office. So there is a Carolina blueprint, so to speak, with this. And obviously the way they're building their team is a little bit similar as far as defense. And I think Cam Newton was transcendent that year. And it's hard for me to see that sort of jump with Josh Allen, but I think Josh Allen would be much improved. I think they win that division. He's not my pick here, but I applaud you guys for doing it.

My pick has much worse odds than Josh Allen, although he's been a much better player of his career. my pick is Philip Rivers. I think that you don't need much in that Colts team. I think that they're going to be much improved. I think that Frank Reich is an incredible offensive coach. I think that they've got a really talented roster. And if you were to bet at plus 4,000, I would take a flyer on that.

And those are the odds right now. He's tied with Jimmy Garoppolo behind Drew Locke, who I mean, I don't understand. Are Broncos fans, is it because they're close to Vegas that they can just kind of go down there and I'll bet on Drew Locke and then the Broncos win the Super Bowl? Because their odds have been much higher than they probably should be. Yeah. I think there's like some like search like SEO genius who's a huge Broncos fan who's figured out how to like just get that into the water stream somehow because there is not, you know, I'm not trying to like totally crap on the guy. but there is no logical reason for the Drew Locke hype to be where the Drewlock hype is.

It's wild. Again, I like Drew Locke as a good young quarterback, but it's just too much, guys. No one, if you Google Drew Locke, you're not seeing like, Drewlock is a good young quarterback. You're saying like John L.A. Drew Locke, ascendant. Yeah. Would you rather have Mahomes or Drew Locke? Like, that's, that's, I don't think.

My guess is if you Googled that, you would get that discussion. And, you know, I saw some people, I legitimately saw some people on Twitter. And I was joking about the Malmstang thing. I saw some people on Twitter, Broncos fans. I got deep into the weeds on this when I first got ripped by Broncos fans for being anti-Drewlock, even though I'm not. I did see some people saying that they'd rather have Drewlock than Joe Burrow. I can't believe.

I'm going to be, like, baited by this conversation into going on Broncos Reddit. I don't think it was, it was more Twitter, I think. I'll look it up. I'll look into it. I remember saying that. And I was like a fringe part of the Broncos community, but I was just kind of like, this is where they're at. And listen, I understand why you need to be excited about a quarterback. I get it, but a little much on the Drewlock thing. Anyway, Philip Irv is my Dark Horse candidate. MVP, actual MVP. Kalan, you have this war. I'm going to go with Lamar Jackson. I know that, you know, it's super rare for people to repeat.

I can't remember where I read it. I didn't do my research like Danny. and I want to say it was like 2008, 2009 Manning. I mean, when you consider again, like, Kevin, you've mentioned it over and over again. Like, this year is going to be about continuity. And I feel like the Ravens just have so much of that, plus the additional weapons that they have surrounding him. I mean, they added J.K. Dobbins is off season. And I don't see how the Ravens don't, you know, repeat in the same dominant way that they did before.

I think you're run into a bit more trouble in division when you talk about the Browns and the Steelers. but as far as their offensive craziness that was Lamar Jackson last year I can see that being repeated So I'm fact checking you by the way No he's right he's right 2009 Also if you go back to 97

Farve won at three years in a row 97 97 We shared it with various Anders one year That's random And then Montana won it back to that 89 90s Yes Danny Kelly There you go Lamar Jackson or somebody else

I'm going with Mahomes. I felt like that was a really lame answer, I guess, maybe, just because he's the best player in football, I think. And he's at, you know, at the helm of the reigning Super Bowl champs. So I think him getting back to full health, having that offense be closer to full health this year. I mean, in theory, and then, you know, they have a lot of continuity. I think that will help a lot, you know, in an extraordinary offseason. So, yeah, I just, my home's just because. I think he has the opportunity to kind of go scorched earth again like he did in 2018 with,

you know, 45, 50 touchdowns, maybe something like that. So can't wait to watch that. I am with you. I think that, again, if I preach continuity all offseason, I can't go with anything other than the two best players in football on the two best teams in football. And that would be the quarterback of the Ravens and the Chiefs. I'm picking the Chiefs only, and Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Holmes, only because I've just, I just, he throws unguardable passes and, and less.

aside from health, which was obviously a problem for him in the regular season last year, which ended up not matter income playoff time, you don't need a lot for Patrick Mahomes to be the most dominant player in the field every single week. Lamar Jackson is as extraordinary a player as ever seen from a rushing perspective. I think the deep ball takes a step forward this year. This is something John Harbaugh said all offseason, where the next step is because he puts the stress in that defense, that defenses are so stretched thin that he's going to be able to,

to even though he was an incredible passer last year, to even take that next step and become a better passer. I think that there's no wrong answer, but I'm going with Patrick Mahomes this year. Nora. Okay. So this is a little too cute by half. I think the real answer,

if I really had to bet on it, my answer would be Patrick Mahomes because he's Patrick Mahomes. However, just for the sake of debate for spicing it up a little bit. I went with Deshawn Watson. Yeah. And I'm going to tell you why. one, he's a great quarterback.

And I think that we have gotten into a place where the Texans are a little bit undervalued, funnily enough, because of the ways in which they have screwed up their roster and mismanaged their roster. Other than that, though, it's fine. Right, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, those are all valid.

However, I still think that the Texans are going to be a good team, a good enough team this year, is important because so 97, Barry Sanders rushes for 2,000 yards, Lions go 9 and 7, he wins MVP. That's the last time a player on a sub 10 win team won this award. So it hinges on them doing that well.

I am not trying to tell you that losing DeAndre Hopkins is a good thing because it is a bad thing. But what I'm wondering is if there's a possibility that they will have to look at they have on offense and say, we need to stop doing this thing that we've been doing where we just ask these incredibly special talented players to just Houdini us out of terrible spots all the time. They were 23rd in DVOA on first downs last year, 14th on second downs, and eighth on third

downs, which is just like on a on a snap to snap basis, the Texans offense was just saying how bad of a situation can we put ourselves in and then have these incredible players on our roster get us out of? If they can find a way to manufacture some easier, quicker throws from Watson, which I think Bill O'Brien is capable of doing and maybe forced to do a little bit more this year because there's just less talent available without Hopkins, I think Watson will be able to thrive in that. they've put so many resources into their offensive line that have a lot of the time not really

paid off. But if they did focus on efficiency a little bit more on offense, you could potentially see those results in a more obvious way. And if they get there, I think there's going to be a lot of power in the idea. Again, these are narrative awards that the deck. was kind of stacked against them and particularly against Watson. And if he just again proves himself to be the transient player that we know he is, I think he's got a really good shot to win this award, particularly because everybody just loves the guy. I like it. I agree with that.

I totally agree with that. Having said all that would be great to have DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah, it would be. If only there was a way. It would be nice. Just there was, so there was a piece. Tyler Dunn wrote it this week where. David Johnson went at quote, the blue check mark, blue checks, I think he called them,

people who are just dunking on David Johnson. I want to clarify something because obviously I dunk on that trade all the time. I didn't, David Johnson was sort of incidental to that whole thing. Like the problem was just giving up DeAndre Hopkins for nothing. Like no one, there was, it wasn't a huge, like, even though David Johnson is not what he was. Like, the reaction to that trade was more like, you're giving up DeAndre Hopkins for what? Not David Johnson is washed.

It was just like, if you're going to give up DeAndre Hopkins, make it for huge value. It wasn't even if it was like a one-to-one, even if people thought David Johnson was still good, that's still not enough to give up DeAndre Hopkins. It's like a running back on a huge contract. Anyway, I'm not going to argue with David Johnson, but come on, man. I don't think David Johnson is going to be very good this year, by the way. He is not my pick for MVP. He is not anyone's pick for MVP.

But I agree with you, DeCon Watson is incredible. and something I've been saying a lot is that we've now underrated Bill O'Brien as an offensive head coach because of how much keeps screwing everything up from roster perspective. And I hope that one day that gets figured out. And the Deshaun Watson and Bill O'Brien have a great marriage between quarterback and coach going forward because I think that Bill O'Brien can be a good coach. So I'm with you. It's going to be a good team.

I think they're probably going to win double-digit games. And I think that you could probably make a case for MVP. All right. Anything else you guys want to unpack? Are we done? and in their awards. You should give an award to Alex Smith just for being able to avoid his son.

Like in that video, like, oh, yeah, ducking his son and moving out the way. I was like, what are you doing? But,

okay, he's in pads. Just don't hurt him. Please. I will click on any and all Alex Smith content this year. What about? Which was not true last year when it was all gross. What about the Kevin Clark?

showing up for a podcast after a big Orlando Magic win. Yeah. No, it was gritty. It was gritty. I wasn't even able to drink any champagne. I've been drinking pounding, pounding coffee. So yeah, I will now send this podcast and then FaceTime everyone I've ever known in Orlando for four or four hours. One last one last. I was going to say one last PS for me. I said Josh Allen's odds were 500 to 1. It's actually 50 to 1. I got a little excited. but that's okay. You can probably find someone to give you 500 to go to roam around Las Vegas until it happens. I got a little too excited about my pick. This has been the Ringer NFL show and Render Podcast.

Thanks guys.