The Ringer NFL Show - MVP Front-runners and the Quarterback Stat-Padding Era | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 315)

Episode Date: October 4, 2018

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark link up to discuss the leading MVP candidates at the quarter mark of the NFL season and list three things they are sure of so far (3:45). Then, they question whether the AFC North is the best division in football and whether the Packers are actually good on this week's Take Shop (26:30) before previewing the biggest games headed into Week 5 (37:45). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I think the scariest part was that he doesn't die at the end. So when you're 10, it's like, that guy's still out there. We gotta get him. To the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin Clark. Kevin, how you doing, buddy?

I'm doing great. You're on assignment. I'm in Los Angeles. Yeah, I'm on assignment. I'm currently in Jacksonville, Florida. We are recording this a little bit early because we're a little bit busy on Thursday, especially me, doing some reporting. So it's currently Wednesday evening. I am very sad about the Cubs.

I'm very excited to do the show, and that's kind of where we sit. I definitely understand the MLB playoff structure and I'm not constantly confused and consulting Wikipedia about it. Yeah, I don't want to get into it. Just a number of different play in games. Yeah, the Cubs play two in two days. And I'm emotionally exhausted.

I'm not super into watching 162 game baseball season and then apparently making the playoffs with the tied for the best record in the NL and then playing one game and no longer being in the playoffs. That's because of Ryan O'Hanlin, my editor here at the Ringer, has a theory that if baseball were played

just once a week it would be the most popular sport in America. Where are you on that one? Because I feel like the one game playoffs are pretty good. The one game playoffs are pretty good, but I am not in on that whatsoever. Baseball for all its...

drama and all the tension in a game like that is not a, like, visually appealing sport in terms of aesthetics. I like baseball, but... If every sport played once a week, everything would be almost the exact same. Football would be more popular because football is perfect for television.

That's all that matters. Football is really, really fun on television. That's it. Yeah, that's why it became the most popular sport in America. It's perfect for TV. It's also the best sport. Yeah. FYI.

And meanwhile, that's why we're here. Welcome to our football podcast. We're talking about the best sport. We're talking about the best sport. We usually start off the Thursday show, the three of them we've done, when I say usually, with the headlines of the week. Instead of doing that this week, because it's four games in where the quarter mark of the season.

You know, quarter pole doesn't mean a quarter of the way through? Did you know this? I haven't given much thought to it, but tell me about this. I said quarter pole in my starting 11 this week, and somebody corrected me on the internet. They're like, you know, the quarter pole and horse racing means you have a quarter mile left. It's not the quartermark of the race. And I was like, no, I did not know that.

But thank you for telling me because I will not use it anymore. So thank you, Internet, for teaching me something new every day outside of people or dick How have we gone this long because I feel like it's a fairly standard sports thing? Like you're doing your power range. Well, we're at the quarter pole. Yeah, I feel like we've really been way off on this. I guess that's not how it works. But we're at the quarter mark of this NFL season.

And as a result of that, we are going to break down some of the MVP race so far. Who do you think is MVP through the quarter of the way through the season? Maybe some other awards. We're also going to talk about three things through four games. games that we know just in our bones to be true. And I think that we could probably pick out several of those, despite how much more season we still have ahead of us. So let's start with just very simply,

who do you think is the MVP of the NFL through four games? Okay. So let's talk about the odds for a second. Mahomes is 4 to 1. He is the favorite. Gough, 5 to 1, Breeze, Brady, Rogers, Gurley, Kamara, 20 to 1, this is the last one I'll name, Joe Flacco. Wow!

That's amazing. I love that. Why? Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Ryan have the same odds. 33 to 1. Ezeka Elliott 40 to 1. And Cleo Mac. Cleolmac and Trubisky have the same odds,

which I think is fascinating. Phil River's 25 to 1. I don't know why that's there. And I'm not exactly buying 25 to 1 Carson Wentz. All right. So even though they have the worst odds, would you just say that Mahomes is

or even though he does, would you say that Mahomes is just the pick right now? Yeah, I'd say some combination of Mahomes and Gough remember my pick was Drew Brees based on narrative because he has not won the award. Six to one. He's six to one. He's lingering there and I think that if Mahomes and Gough have some

sort of, you know, struggle in the second half, any of that, I feel like Breeze could win a narrative award here. Having said that, Mahomes has 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Like, there's also the chance he just absolutely runs away with this. The throat he made across his body

on Monday night I seriously he was just blown it away by it. What about the left-handed throw? Well that was just a good that's a good presence of mind thing in the moment but just the physical ability to make that across the field throw is like holy shit this guy is good.

The golf thing is fun. I mean we talked about this before the season I picked Gurley just because I didn't think that golf would have the type of numbers to win the MVP even though I felt like the Rams would own the year. I still feel like they're going but he certainly has the type of numbers to win the MVP. Yeah, and remember what I say,

I mean, golf and Gurley, I think, would split votes. Yes, I think that's tough. If the Rams are like 15 and one, and the number one team in the NFC, and Mahomes is Mahomes for the rest of the year, I think Mahomes gets it, even if golf just absolutely destroys the rest of the NFC. And also, by the way, these two teams play in Mexico City.

I know. That's really exciting. I'm very much forward to that. I feel like there's going to be a week of, like, who's getting the MVP that week, And then we judge a lot of it based on that. I'm so mad. I didn't put money on Mahomis before the year.

Me and my buddy, Ryan, the day before the season started, we were sitting there at a bar in Los Angeles, going over the records for every team. We do this every year. We usually do it over email, but he happens to live in L.A. now. We're sitting there at the corner of the bar, and we're going over MVP odds.

And I was like, Mahomes is 33 to 1. Should we just pool some money and bet on Mahomes to win the MVP? And we were like, no, it's still, it's too far-fatch. I know that it could happen and just based on everything we think that offense is going to be but come on MVP now he's 4 to 1

I'm just so mad about this There is a four week span Are you aware of this four week golf span Or the four week ram span From late October and November? No, I'm definitely not I don't know what you're talking about So I'm not aware of it

Four week span I don't want the quarterback wins people angry at me The people get really mad when you say That's matchups between two quarterbacks I don't want them coming after me, but I don't care. Rogers versus Gough on October 28th. Clash of the Titans. Gough versus Breeze the next week,

then the Seahawks, whatever, who cares? The week after that, Chiefs Ramps. Wow. That's fun, man. I got to tell you, and this speaks a little bit to the depth of the league, as far as quarterbacks goes right now. So they have Rogers, Breeze, Wilson, obviously,

then Mahomes, then Stafford, then Mitchell Trubisky, and then Carson Wentz. They play those quarterbacks in order. And then they have the Arizona Cardinals, which, I mean, Riosin might be right there with them by that point. I'm going to be in Los Angeles for the Breeze game,

which is fun. It's exciting. It's in New Orleans, but... Oh, okay. Are you going to go to a bar or something? I don't know. Do you want to watch the games together that day? Sure.

We could. Sure. I'll be there. Okay. All right. Let's move on to the three things we feel like we already know, just based on this season. My number one is just Patrick Mahomes is for real.

I mean, I feel like we just touched on that. I mean, the Chief's offense is just a pleasure to watch. And he is 100% like entrenched as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I feel good about that. Yeah, I mean, I don't think, I think we've seen a couple of young quarterback sort of rise and fall. And I don't know, first of all, I think a lot of this stuff is Mahomes' talent. That's 85% of it. But then you get into Andy Reid schemes, the amount of why he wouldn't passes.

He's getting the windows, Tyreek Hill, Kreme Hunt, those guys, there's weapons, Travis Kelsey. So it is slightly systematic, but then there's just a lot of talent that he has. And I think that the supporting cast and the Reed thing is going to keep him from maybe the deep regression, some of the other young quarterbacks have had. I think he is the future of the NFL. You know, when we did the podcast with Rissillo and Simmons, we talked about the best quarterback in three years. I said, whence, I still believe that.

But the one caveat I said at the time was that if Patrick Mahomes looks like this through November, I will change my answer. And at this point, I would buy him looking like this through November, and I would buy me changing my answer. I'm not going to do it yet because it's only been four games. But I'm starting to, I always believe the hype. and I'm starting to think that maybe he's going to exceed

the already incredible hype. Yeah, he really could. I mean, it's unbelievable what's happening right now. And even on games where they're not clicking necessarily, they went on the road and beat Denver. And they were not fire on all cylinders for that entire four quarters,

but by the end, they just went out. It's like the same thing we discussed with the Saints on Sunday show. Eventually, just the talent wins out. You can only keep him at bay for so long. long. That's just how I feel about the chiefs right now. I mean, it's just incredible. You know, my first thing is related to this. And it's that offense is a sustainable way to win the NFL right now. I saw a stat the other day. The top five scoring offenses in the league, doesn't matter anything else.

The top five scoring offenses in the league right now are 17 and 3. That seems important. Yeah. I mean, and that's just, that's just, that's the future. Is it's, it's, going to be basketball-esque. It's the same sort of revolution that happened in basketball. Teams have figured out efficiency. They've figured out offense. They figured out ways to get these guys open. Now, a couple of the, I do think there will be some regression.

And here's why. I think that some of the schemes, especially the spread stuff, I don't think anyone realized they spent so much time on RPO's. And I talked to coaches about it over the summer. They spent a lot of times just trying to decipher the RPO stuff that I think they lost sight of the bigger picture, which was, you know, some of these just very basic spread concepts that have been popular in college for years have now made it as sort of primary plays in the NFL. Jet motion. Yeah, jet motion, those sort of things. Things have been bubbling to the surface for maybe a

couple of years in the NFL, but now they're everywhere. And I feel like NFL defenses will at some point adjust, but I do think the shotgun offense, the jet motion stuff, I mean, I do think that for a couple of years at least, offense will have a major, major schematic advantage over the defense. Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, you just see everything and how many teams are using this stuff well. How many teams are using very similar concepts? You know that one play that teams are running now where they'll line up with a slot receiver to the right and they'll fake a pitch.

Like the movement of the offensive line and the running back would be such that you think it's a pitch to the right. And in reality, the slot receiver coming back to the left catches it. I've seen like six teams do that. I've seen six teams do that little flip pass to a guy coming in motion on jet motion. I mean, it's like all these teams are doing very similar things. And as we've seen the homogeneity of the league kind of rise to this point and the transfer of information is so fast, we just see so many teams stealing from one another. And that's what I tweeted this during the Rams game. But I said, there is no reason for your team to not be creative and fun.

and forward thinking anymore because of how easy it is to steal from the smart coaches. If you're not being good, you are just not trying. So I said this over the summer and I want to repeat it because there was a story

a couple of months ago about how many coaches have called Lincoln Riley and picked his brain about offensive schemes. And I'm one of those people I called Lincoln Riley and picked his brain

and I wrote a story about it for the ringer last week. But if I'm an owner, the first thing I'm doing when I read something like that is I call my coach I say, hey, who from our staff called Lincoln Riley? And if the answer is no one,

fire everyone. Fire everybody. Fire the quality control guy. I don't know, fire the athletic trainer who didn't think of calling Lincoln Riley. I mean, if you're not, things move so quickly now. Things move so quickly. And as I wrote last week, I mean, you know, this, this, the website, Huddle, YouTube,

all of these things, quality control guys at every level are looking at these plays and stealing them. And it's not just, So the story is that Press Taylor, the now quarterbacks coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, saw the Philly Special online. That's his job, right?

Well, the Ravens have a guy, Matt Weiss that they told me about. He does that. If you don't have a guy... If you don't have a guy... If you don't have a guy, you need a guy, and if you don't want a guy,

you should be fired. Yes. It makes no sense that you can get an army of dudes making, you know, $42,000 a year to do this shit. Like it just, I don't understand how these teams that print money and have this unbelievably blow to television deal don't have 10 guys.

You know what I would do? I would do this for their jobs. I would just hire one of these Twitter guys who just goes around looking at Oklahoma State plays and just and play him $40,000 a year. Stick him in an office down the hall. And every couple days, I go, hey, what do you got? Well, hey, look at this Montana play. There's no reason not to. There's literally no reason.

And that's why, so my second thing is I feel like we can firmly say that Sean McVeigh is the best play caller in the NFL. And the reason for that and the reason why it's so defined to me is this exact type of thing. Just this willingness to say, all right, that looks cool. How do I do that? You know, them stealing that Kareem Hunt play from week one of the Chiefs game last year against New England, them using it against Dallas, just like wholesale being like, we're just going to steal this. I don't care. You know who else stole that play?

The New England Patriots. The Chiefs ran that play against the Patriots, and the Patriots stole it. And then everybody stole it. I'm writing about McVeigh for today, I guess. This podcast will come out Thursday.

The story's coming out on Thursday. So you guys hopefully can go read that. But Andrew Whitworth told me something so interesting at the end of last season. And he was just talking about the exchange of information in the Rams building and how McVeigh does such a great job of talking to his guys

about what they're comfortable with and what they're not. And I asked, Whitworth, I was like, when do you guys have these conversations? Is there like a set time? Do you guys have a meeting that's designed for these sort of, you know, gripes and grievances?

He goes, it's all the time. He said, I don't think there a day goes by that Sean doesn't talk to every single member of the starting offense. That's remarkable. That, and to say, like, well, isn't that how every team does it? No. That is not how every team does it. Every team does not have this idea of, well, you know, tell me what you think about this. And that's what is so remarkable about McVeigh is that what we're told me, he said he's the smartest guy in the room and he knows it, but he's also the most empathetic guy in the room. And striking that balance with the egos at play in the NFL coaching world is virtually impossible. And his ability to kind of,

of teach this stuff and teach it on such a baseline level and such a fundamental level. And then when his guys say, well, I don't know. And it's the littlest things. It's the idea of if you're, let's say you're trying to devise a pressure or a protection package, which Goff told me is the thing that McVeigh did just with a deafness that was unbelievable at the beginning. Just how much he simplified things while also keeping them so complicated. He's like, this guy's just different. And Whitworth told me, he said, so we're running these, we're putting in these protections and we'll devise it as such that there are moments where I know based on a certain look that I'm going to have a read that makes me make a bear, like a terrible decision, an unenviable decision. And I'll just tell Sean, this is not good.

What this makes me do is not conducive to success and they'll change it. Or at least he's willing to listen to why they should change it. And again, if you think that is the norm in the NFL, you do not talk to a lot of NFL people. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting to me because it kind of goes back to what we talked about earlier, which is just how quickly information can travel up. And the first person, I've said this before, the first person to ever tell me what was coming was in 2013, I want to say, and it was Mike Shanahan. And who was Mike Shanahan in charge of at that point?

Well, Sean McVeigh is one of them, Kyle Shanahan's the other. Correct. And I think that that staff now, and by the way, by the way, Robert Griffin, when he had his little explosion in 2012, guess what he was doing? He was running Baylor's Playbook. Yes. And that was a sign of things to come. Taking ideas from anywhere. It's about fluidity.

It's about malleability. I mean, we've known this forever, but it's just, we have to keep hammering it over and over again because people seem to forget this. It's just about a willingness to understand that if you are, you're, you know, you're. If you have just this ability and this feeling for taking in information and processing it and not blocking it out for the sake of doing it, it's going to make you a better football team. It's going to make you a better football coach. Good ideas come from anywhere. All right.

My next thing, it's actually, I'm just going to tee you up for it. I may not even talk, even though it's my thing. The Bears can win if Mitch Trubisky isn't good. And if he is good, they can content. Don't make me do this, please. It's not very nice of you. I'm not talking. It's really fun, dude.

I'm not talking. It's really fun. Do you agree with the first part? Do you agree with the first part? Yeah, I do. Can they win the NFC North if Mitch Trubisky is a average quarterback? 100% that can. I agree.

I agree. Every other element of what they're doing right now lends to that possibility and that reality. So what happens? I'm not saying he's putting up the Aaron Rogers type numbers who's playing against a Bucks. The Bucks, by the way, that was kind of a low-grade version of what happened with the Vikings against the bills,

where they just forgot how to play defense momentarily. So there was just a lot of just randomly open people. The defense is for real. We've discussed this. Mack was my third thing. The fact that,

oh my God, Khalil Mack is amazing. So we might as well just discuss it now. Let's do it. What he has done for them is just, holy shit.

It was it. It was the one element they needed to just unlock this unit that has so much talent on it. It's made Akeem Hicks better. It's made Leonard Floyd better. It's made the secondary better. Those corners are pretty good.

They did not have Prince of Mukumaro last week, and they were fine. Bryce Callahan's been excellent in the slide. It's just an 11 deep defense without any weaknesses. Now the Mac is there. Yep. And you watch what Tim Trevathan was doing on, you know, seam routes to OJ Howard and almost picking passes off. Aaron Lynch has been really good when he's been given a shot.

It's just the defense is so excellent. and it's a recipe that is sustainable. It is not smoke in mirrors, and that's the most impressive and the most encouraging part about their success thus far. We see these defenses when it's like, oh, man, these guys look pretty good,

but it's just, it's a blitz here and it's a blitz there, and they're getting pressure in all these manufactured ways, and when defenses figure out how to stop that, how to attack it, it's never going to work

over a long period of time. The Bears blitz 11% of the time. It's the, lowest rate in football. And they had the most pressures. And they have the most sacks. I mean, it's unbelievable. I don't want to overstate this, but that's the type of defense.

That's how you win the Super Bowl. That's exactly right. And again, let's see how good it can be. That's the type of defense wins Super Bowl. I'm not saying the Bears are winning the Super Bowl. I'm just saying that's the profile. And we talked about it on Sunday night. How many defenses have 18 sacks through four games?

We talked about it Sunday night. I mean, it's an incredible list, including last year's Jaguars. I am not overstating this. The Bears don't have a below-average starter on their defense. I agree with that. You can't... This is literally a health thing. If everyone stays healthy,

they're going to be extremely good all-season, and they, from the looks of things, look like they can probably win the division. Yes. I think they absolutely can contend to win the division. And it's about the right guys getting hurt or the right guys staying healthy, right? So let's, for example, say that Leonard Floyd is out for the season.

Then Aaron Lynch comes in and you don't lose a ton. Let's, for example, say that one of the defensive linemen that's not Hicks or Kahl Mac gets hurt. Bullard goes down, then Robertson Harris steps in and he's been playing very well. Ballard Nichols, the rookie, is very good. I mean, that's a group that has a ton of depth right now. Let's say Trevathan gets hurt. Then Quiet Koski comes in.

he's a pretty solid player, even though it's a slight downgrade. They have a lot of depth at the right spots. I think safety, you're going to need those guys healthy. They'd be done because both of those guys are so good. Hey, I have a question. That would be a huge thing. But again, it's just, that's true for almost every defense. There's so few groups that can't, that can afford injuries.

Right now, it reminds me of the jags in terms of how complete they are across the board. Hey, Robert. What's up, buddy? What if they had an injury at quarterback? Then that would be bad because even as bad as, Chase Daniel? Yeah. If Chase Daniel...

No, let's talk about this. If Chase Daniel were the Bears quarterback for the next... Let's say, just hypothetically, Trebisky gets hurt in game five. So you have 11 more games. Do they make the place of Chase Daniel? No.

Okay. I think the offense is just so bad. I have so much faith in the scheme. I have so much faith in the past catchers. I believe they're second in the league and drop rate. I think they've dropped like one. 1.2% of their passes. You know, that group of receivers, I said coming into the season,

had a chance to be one of the best in the league. I absolutely believe that it has been. And Anthony Miller hasn't even played very much, considering he's been hurt. Every other element of this team is really well put together. And that's the kind of optimist my head coming into the year, and they've rewarded it. All right, what's your third way?

Wait, hold on. What is going to happen more for the rest of the year? Bears wins or John Gruden saying something incredibly unself-aware. about Colonna. John Gurdon is saying something incredibly unselfaware because the Bears

only have 12 games left even if they win them all. John Gruden just did you hear it? He's like Columack another strip sack unbelievable.

I know. Did you read that story? Yeah. I don't know. I like Mike Silver a lot. I understand what John Gurd is an object of fascination. I just don't like

we're really like John Grewd, I tweeted this John Gurdens celebrating beating the Browns and he didn't really beat them. And also he's like, The reps gave them the game. Well, he's also just like, well, we haven't solved anything yet, which is what you say, like, when you're riding high.

Okay, listen. Third one very quickly. Yours is Colomack. Yeah, we already talked about it. Mine extremely quick, extremely quickly. My number three thing I know is they win the Patriots are just going to win the division. Yes. Yes.

We did this whole... Dog and a Pony show. Bill made me put the Patriots on worst picks the week, and I'm... Yeah, no, they're going to win the... the division, probably made the AFC championship game. They're going to play the Chiefs and they're going to beat the Chiefs. Probably. Yeah, that's just how it's always going to go.

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Use promo code Ringer NFL, and they'll match your first deposit 100%. That's promo code Ringer NFL. You play, you win, you get paid. Now, I'm back to the show. All right, let's move on. Let's get to this week's Take Shop. Why don't you kick us off? Yeah.

Hey, Robert. Is the AFC North the best division in football? I think it is. Wow. Yeah. Wow, because I'm there. I think the AirC North can give it a run. I think what it comes down to.

And this is what we talked about when I unveiled this take shop to you off air. The pre-take shop, if you will. Pre-take shop, yeah. It comes down to how you feel right now about the NFC North teams. And we'll talk about

the teams you want to talk about in a second because it's sort of related, but I pick the Vikings to make the Super Bowl. I have no idea what the hell is going on with the Vikings right now. The Packers, I'm ready to believe anything. I mean, the Packers right now are 2-1-1. The Vikings, the Packers tie.

That's such a strange situation there. But the Packers, dismantled the bills. Like, that's exactly what we expected. Did they, though? We'll get to this. They won by 22 points. 22 points is not a lot against the bills when Josh Allen plays like you play.

The Vikings got blown the fuck out by them. That's fair, but the Vikings seem like they're in a little bit of hot water right now. I totally agree. But listen, so the Bears are 3 and 1. Their one loss is a very strange loss to the Green Bay Packers, which was just, that was just sort of a miracle deal.

And I don't really know what to glean from that it was early in the season. So it comes down to what you believe As far as those teams go NFC South kind of intriguing But the Bucks and the Falcons at this point Are not huge threats The NFC East is the NFC East

Don't care AFC South I have no idea what the hell is going on there I mean I will say that the Titans and the Jaguars do look really good But the Texans and the Colts do not AFC West Eh And then the AFC East is just another Another Dolphins win

So the worst team right now by, I'm trying to look here. Yeah, by point differential, the worst team in the NFL, and the AFC North is Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah, that's crazy. I mean, this is more about how I feel about the Browns. I mean, I put them at 16 in the preseason power rankings. I feel like they could go 8 and 8.

They probably should be on track to be even better than that right now. Despite all the late game craziness and just the frustrating head-scratching decisions that have been made, that team has a lot of talent on it. And with Baker, I just think that they're going to be a pain in the ass for teams throughout the entire season. The Bengals, I'm impressed with their offense. I feel like their ability to protect Dalton just a little bit, just a little bit more, has allowed them to be pretty good. The past catchers are solid.

Boy, it's gotten better. And Baltimore is playing better than I thought they would on offense. I mean, that division right now has no easy outs. So I don't mind you saying that at all. Again, the take shots are takes we're not necessarily ready to throw out there. But we're starting to get there. We're workshopping them. Absolutely.

All right. So here's mine with that same thought. Let's do this. And I hesitate to even do this because I know it's going to come back to get me. Are the Packers good? Do we think the Packers are good? Talk me out of this, I guess is what I'll ask you. Talk you out of the Packers being bad?

Yeah. Air Rogers, is that where it ends? Yeah. And Kenny Clark is the second best player on defense in football, according to Pro Bowl Focus right now. He's been awesome. I think you're looking at, some individual pieces of talent.

And I would put, until last week, I would have put the Seahawks in the same category, which is really good players in a number of positions and it coming down to whether or not the other guys can be average enough. That's probably true, but I just, God, there aren't that many of the good players. I mean, ha ha ha's been good.

Kenny Clark's been really good. David Bactiari is just on a level right now. That dude is amazing. watching him week in, week out, he has just figured it out. I think right now he's the best pass blocking left tackle in football with Tyron Smith's kind of up and down issues with the new position coach and his lingering help problems and whatever. Bakhtiari is so fucking good.

But their past catchers have a lot to be desired. I don't really like the guys they have on the edge. I mean, Clay Matthews is taking such a tumble. The secondary is very young. The safeties they have outside of, ha-ha, do not scare me whatsoever. linebackers are fine. I guess we just play this game all the time with Green Bay where it's like, oh, well, they're not that good, but Rogers is Rogers and they'll be fine.

And I just think that that is so stark this year considering how just forgettable and replaceable so much of the talent on the roster seems to be. You know what's strange to me? We're playing flag football right now. If you're not passing 488, 400 yards a game, Blake Borda's had 388 yards last. week. If you're not passing for 400 yards a game, you're just basically being left behind. And the two guys who have not really been able to take advantage of it and maybe the way they should. Are Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers?

Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers. Yeah, it's weird. Aaron Rogers completed 55% of his passes against the freaking bills. They did not blow that team out. Well, they did with the score. 22 points is not that much against a really, really bad team. 76 rating hasn't broken 300 I'm looking at the last three games did he break 300 yards against the bear I believe he seems like something you would have done

because he torched them no he did not no he did not no he did not 26 and Ryan Fitzpatrick is throwing 400 yards a game and is no longer a starter that's where we're at with his league right now and Rogers average 9.53 yards also Ryan Fitzpatrick's not a quarterback but I'm just saying Aaron Rogers

Statistically, Aaron Rogers average 9.05-3-3-yard. Statistically both both Rogers and Brady, if they were in a vintage year right now, would be throwing for 850 yards in a half. Do you know what Aaron Rogers' career quarterback rating is? It's the highest in history. 103.6.

But as many people have pointed out, like nine quarterbacks are above that this year, or they were going into last week. And guess who's not? Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers. who is at 97.4, which is his worst every year was 92.

Yeah, before his, yeah, since he became the starter. 1.4. So, let's, one more thing I want to complain about here. The Packers are joining the Lions as the teams that are frustrating me a lot with the usage of their running backs. Okay. The Lions just refuse to make Carry On Johnson the guy, even though he's clearly the best running back on the team.

And the Packers just. refuse to give the ball to Aaron Jones, even though he is so much better than the other two guys they have. I know pass protection and whatever. He's a fine pass protector. I don't know if Jamal Williams is like Marshall Falk in 2000. Like, I don't understand why we need Jamal Williams snaps because he's so good in past protection. You've arguably the best pass blocking offensive line in the NFL. I'm not sure that tiny gap in past protection quality between Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones is precluding you from putting your best running back on the field who's averaging like seven yards of carry. It just NFL coaches and their decision making will always confound

me. So, Kerry on Johnson leads the Lions in Attempts. You're taking issue with LaGarrett Blunt 35 attempts this year? Yeah, it's very close. Do you know what LaGarrett Blunt's yards per attempt is? Like 3.8? Oh, you wish. 2.7. Jesus. Okay. Good Lord. 35, 35 attempts for 95 yards. You're doing a nice job. Carriand Johnson at 100 yards in one game. It's a nice job. Caron Johnson 5.7 yards per cent.

And it's not. I feel like you're going to see a little bit more with that. They also have Theo Riddick in the backfield. But that's the thing, right? So when you have a running back that's clearly the best running back and he's not getting the work you think he should. The reason is almost always because that guy is not that good in past protection

and because you don't want to be predictable. Legerre Blount is terrible in past protection. He is not a passing down back. There is no reason to have him in the game right now over Carryon Johnson, except for maybe spelling him every couple series so he doesn't get tired. It's the only reason. The fact that their carries are 50-50 right now, there is nothing rooted in logic that would lend that to be true.

Nothing. What did you learn? Because I did not learn it until fairly recently that Luke John's, Luke, excuse me, Luke Wilson was on the Lions. Oh, I had no idea. Absolutely zero idea. I feel like we should give an award

for the person who's a veteran that is on a team that we found out the latest in the year. Ooh, what would we call that? For me, it's Luke Wilson. You think it's the Luke Wilson Award? No, I would actually say, so first of all,

I did not know Trevor Simeon played for the Vikings until I saw Trevor Simeon in the Vikings practice. Yep, Kirk Cousins told me. That's the only reason I knew. I literally saw Trevor Simeon. I'm like, what are you doing here? I didn't say that, but that was my thought. But, you know, funny enough, that also happened the year before with Case Keenum.

And look where that got us. I actually laughed when I saw Case Kinnam in practice and then he fucking dunked on me. Then he came on Slow Newsday. For me, it's, uh, this happened today. I was in the Jaguars locker room and I saw James O'Shaughnessy and I was like, oh, I forgot James O'Shaunsonson. But he was there last year. He was there last year, but it's for me, it's like those third tight ends.

It's like, what team is a Mercedes-Louis on right now? Yeah. Do you know? Mercedes-Lewis is on is he on the Packers? He is on the Packers. Well done. Yes.

But it's those guys. It's the blocking tight ends. It's like, who is the third Steelers tight end forever? Oh, Matt Spath is exactly who I'm thinking of. Like, it's the Matt Spath Award for guys who you do not know which team they're on. You know what the other thing about the third tight end? Is either they're either the best guy on the team or they're just quietly a massive asshole. Yes, it's one of the other.

It's so true. Because sometimes you assume that because of the third tight end, they're a great guy. And then they're like, no, that guy's the biggest jackass on the team. It's one or the other. The third tight end has never been an okay guy. He's either like the chairman of the local boys and girls club or he hasn't spoken to the media and doesn't know his teammates' names.

That's so true. Do you know what? It's always a fun thing when you're in a locker room and you talk to a guy from the first time. You've never talked to him. And you're like, that guy's awesome. That's one of my favorite experience. as an NFL reporter. Did that happen today?

I'm doing a story and I talked to Abrey Jones. You know, Avery Jones is the guy he's been there forever in Jacksonville. It's like the third defensive tackle. I talked to him for 10 minutes. I walked away.

I was like, man, that guy's great. And it's just, it's always such a fun experience. There are a lot of the opposite of those in NFL locker rooms, but when you get one of those, it's always fun. Yeah.

I mean, and it's, the vast majority of players are just decent. And they give you what you mean. 100%. 100%. But then there's, there's a,

extreme cases one way or the other. Absolutely. All right. Let's move on to our biggest three games of the week. Got some good ones this week. Let's stick on the Jags at first. We almost forgot this one. I'll take the blame for that,

which is when we kind of run through the schedule very quickly, sometimes this happens. But the Chiefs play the Jaguars this week, man. The Chief's offense against the Jags defense is one hell of a thing to watch. So this is a extremely complex matchup for me. because I sort of see AJ Boy is not giving up a touchdown reception in I think

7505 snaps did you see that stat no that's amazing though it was from PFF I need to make sure that it's right because I wrote it down it's ludicrous regular season stats but I mean I just don't I don't even know that's possible

okay Jalen Ramsey's Jalen Ramsey and I just this defense is exactly what you want to see Mahomes you want to see Mahomes go against this defense. It's a phenomenon. And I don't know. I mean, we're about to find out

if the Mahomes' experience is defense proof. This is how you find out. Marcel Daria said something very funny to me today. He was talking about just the defense in general and how in Buffalo when they were really good, the defensive line was really good. And they kind of controlled everything and they made everything go. He said, here it's just complete.

He said there's nothing that's more enjoyable to me than standing there and looking across the line and just being able to dance and say, you can't do shit. It was amazing. And it was hilarious. And it's so true. I mean, just that group in general is just flawless.

They have no weaknesses. And that's the biggest issue. And I'll be so curious to see how the chiefs go about attacking them. The Jags are 17th in DVOA against tight ends. I would assume that there's going to be a lot of Travis Kelsey in this game. outside of that, they don't really give up much to anybody else. So I don't know what the correct approach is

if you're Andy Reid. Well, here's what we found out. We found out that Patrick Mahomes can throw across his body, unlike anybody else in league. We found they can throw left-handed. So I think that this is the kind of game where you just see... You can make them throw left-handed every play?

So there's an old, there's an NFL thing. You know, Hope is not a strategy. It's what they say in the league office. And I feel like in this situation, hope is a strategy because you just sort of let Mahomes do his thing and good things will happen. That does not seem like a scientifically prudent thing, but I'm buying into it 100%. Mahomes can make things happen. He's almost like a basketball player. I mean, he really is a bad.

I mean, you know, Bill made the comparison. Many people have made the comparison to Steph Curry. And I just kind of believe he has this sort of basketball mindset. And I know that, you know, I remember Derek Carr talking about this a little bit with his. fourth quarter comebacks. And there are some players who just really enjoy the improvisation part of it. And obviously, cars come back down to Earth a little bit. That's what happens when you don't have the best offensive line in the NFL anymore.

But I just feel like Mahomes, sorry, he can make things happen. I know it's a cliche, but he can make things happen. Fun thing to watch in this one, too, just on a more granular level. Mitchell Schwartz is playing out of his mind right now. You shut down Von Miller, just like, again, like a shutout on Monday. night and he's just playing so, so well. He started a hundred straight game. Mitchell Schwartz, Calais Campbell, Sunday, 1 p.m. Eastern, tune in on your television. I mean, that is one hell of a matchup in a game that has plenty of great individual ones. Jalen Ramsey, Tyree

Hill, whatever those linebackers do against Kelsey. I mean, this is just, it does not get any better than that defense against that offense. All right, let's move on. Let's get to our second one. a couple of NFC contenders. I would say before the season, maybe two of the three most complete rosters in the league, you would have said, kind of floundering right now, the Eagles and the Vikings.

Is this a loser-leaves-town match? No, get out of here with that. No. Okay, so Paul Domovich does a great job. He has a stat. Last year, the Eagles offense converted an NFL high 33% of their third and eights or more.

Yep. Okay? that's incredible. Seven touchdowns for Wentz in those situations on third and eight. That's how you have an efficient offense. Convert those types of things, have incredible play calls.

So that's 33%. This year it's 15.4%. That sort of shows you that they are not in the same place they were last year as far as conversions, as far as efficiency. It's only four games,

much smaller sample size, but man, last year you could count on the Eagles offensive. to do anything. And at this point, it hasn't really worked out like that. So I wrote about the Eagles on Monday after watching them play on Sunday against Tennessee. And I wrote that it's not as if there's this disaster happening in Philadelphia. You know, they're not falling apart by any stretch.

And their talent for the most part is the same as it was. I thought Wenz played fairly well on Sunday. But you just see these little cracks in the foundation of what they were last season. And they're small, but they matter. And one of those things is that third down conversion rate and their ability to just continue and sustain drives. So in that game against Tennessee, they were giving up a lot of pressure on the inside. And then Lane Johnson got beat a couple times by Harold Landry. And it's like, this is not the same team.

The guys are the same, the uniforms are the same, but they do not look the same. And every, it's just tiny incremental falloffs by each individual guy. you know, Brandon Brooks getting kind of beat up by Jarrell Casey on the inside last week. And Lane Johnson losing to Harold Landry a couple times. The Corey Graham downgrade from Roddy McLeod and the Titans' ability to take advantage of that. You know, when Corey Davis scored that game winning touchdown, he was working against Avanti Maddox, the fourth round pick who's only really playing because Roddy McLeod isn't there. The corners have not been very good this year.

So again, a lot of the same guys, a lot of the same schematic stuff, of guys running open. I mean, you could say that losing Frank Reich and John Di Filippo, you know, do they have the same sort of creativity on offense? I believe they do. It's just they don't have the time to get the ball to those guys and guys were dropping passes. Nelson Aguilar dropped a couple passes. Jordan Matthews is dropping the ball. So you're just seeing a different version of that Eagles team that won the Super Bowl last year, even if so much a bit of it was the same. Yeah. You know, one thing I want to clarify, you know, when I joked about this being a loser leaves town match, it's, it's not necessarily, if the Eagles lose this game, they're two and three. That's not the end of

the world record-wise. But there's a lot of elite units in the NFL right now, a lot. And if you don't have one, I think that's the barrier for entry into being a Super Bowl competitor, Super Bowl contender. And right now, from either of these teams, I'm not seeing a unit that is dominant that's going to get you where you need to be. That's all. I totally agree. And at some point, they got to show it soon. Because I'm not saying,

I mean, the Vikings defense, I have no idea what the hell happened. Zimmer said something really interesting. And he said that, is it ever some Griffin thing? Yeah,

no, not that. I mean, that part of it is, that's just something, that's very strange, and I don't want to get into that. I mean,

that's just... Definitely not. And so, yeah, we can talk about that at another time, but he said he might be overcoaching them, which,

Seems like coach speak and seems dumb, but when you consider how complicated that defense is and how complex it can be, you can understand that there might be a little bit too much information getting thrown at those guys because they're trying to be so complex. So I just think they still have a lot of the same talent and they're very good on that side of the ball.

But I feel like they could probably just get back to basics a little bit and be a much better unit than we've seen so far. You know, one of the coaching points I wish she had made was that the Vikings should cover Bill's players. Yeah. That would have been a good teaching moment for them. Okay. Redskins Saints.

Redskins Saints. I want to chat about this just because I feel like we should probably hit on Breeze breaking the passing record. I mean, he's going to do it. And we've talked about this a lot in the last couple months. I mean, we've taken to win the MVP coming in, everything else. I don't think we appreciate Drew Breese enough. Like, I legitimately don't think so. Yeah, I don't.

Yes, we don't. He's never won an MVP award. He should this year. I mean, it's unbelievable what he's doing this year again. He wasn't very good against the Giants, but goddamn he was good in the first three games. What they've been able to do with him and just, I don't know, he's such a joy to watch. That defense, I mean, there has been no more consistent unit in the NFL, maybe outside of the Patriots offense, than the Saints offense over the last 10 years. Yeah, I totally agree with you.

I saw a stat the other day. Scott Katzmer tweeted that. out. Let's assume Andrew Luck and Drew Breeze throw for an equal amount of yards for the rest of 2018. Luck could throw for 5,000 yards for the next 10 years and he wouldn't break Breeze's career mark. Think about that. That's insane. I mean, that's absolutely insane. Just efficiency. And I know some of it, I know some of those years, especially when he broke the record for passing yards one time. I know some of them were sort of weird seasons where they were down a lot and they weren't exactly, you know, contending for a Super Bowl. It doesn't matter. It's really hard to pick up those

sort of yards in the NFL. He really did. He really did, especially in that 2011 season, he really did change the game and changed the way we looked at maybe past first offense. Yeah, absolutely. He did. What they've been able to do year and year out and different versions of it, that's been the coolest part is that we've had all these different iterations of who their offense has been. And now you have the company. Amara Ingram thing and just their willingness to feed Michael Thomas in a way they've never fed a single receiver just because he's playing so well. I'm very interested in this game specifically. I'm really interested in looking at how that offensive line plays against a very underrated Washington front.

With Duran Payne and Jonathan Allen, they have such a good front. They have a very good pass rush. That's a really fun matchup to watch this week. And I also am curious to see what the workload is like with Ingram coming back. Because we discuss this a little bit on Sunday show. the boxes Kamara was running into were so stacked because he's now in in different scenarios that he was in last season. And I think that was hurting his rushing efficiency. So we'll see if Ingram gets those heavy look rushes and Kamara kind of goes back to the role he filled last season.

I think that's just something to watch. I don't know how it's going to work out. It's as much for fantasy as it is for anything. But that's an unknown to me as we go into this game. Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, I don't know. I'm ready to believe anything from the Reds. I mean, I just don't like the NFC East that much.

Do you? No, I absolutely do not. I like Alex. That's why I'm not worried about the Eagles. That's why you don't worry about the Eagles. It's because there's just no one who's going to run away and hide in that division. I agree with that. I agree with that.

I don't think the Super Bowl container is coming out of the NFC East this year. As much as I love the Eagles, obviously. Yeah, I totally agree. I absolutely agree. I think the Eagles will be there, but I just don't think any of those other teams scare me whatsoever. Yep. Let's move on. Let's get to this week's version of May's Geeks Out and Kevin Sneaky Truth.

Mine's actually player specific this week. Watching that Eagles game back again early in the week, I was just so interested in watching that front. And we know Deroa Casey's a good player, Dacon Jones played well, but a guy that just blew me away watching that game again, Harold Landry is going to be really good, man. He's going to be really, really good.

So if you happen to catch that Titans, game this week. They're playing against the Bills and Jordan Mills is not a very good right tackle. This isn't like a quality of matchup thing. This is a Harold Lantry could absolutely destroy this game and get on the train now because I think that guy's

going to be an absolute stud as we move forward here over the next few years and I think that this week could be his coming out party. You know, two, three sacks, him really just taking it to that Buffalo team. Yeah, so it's funny because we talk a lot at the ringer about whether or not college football fans

should just scout for teams. And I don't buy into that as much as maybe some college football fans do. I mean, that's like a big Deshawn Watson thing, right? Like, hey, college football fans, good to tell you. Deshaunson's really good. Okay. But Harold Lynch is a good example of a guy who two, three years ago, people were talking about him as a future elite player from Boston College.

There were a lot of stories about him being the next great defensive lineman. His stock drops for, I'm not even sure why. It was health a little bit. weren't there some health problems? Yeah, there was some health concerns. Yeah, and I think his production fell off a little bit in his last year in college. Sure, right. But his Mike Vrabble's son plays at Boston College.

There's a lot of connections between obviously the New England area and the Tennessee Titans at this point. And so the fact that he dropped to the 41st pick, I think, surprised a lot of people, especially in college football. And so I just, this is the player we thought he was maybe two years ago. Yeah, I totally agree. He's been so fun. They have so much talent up front there. And I really do think it's going to help them control games. I think that defense is for real.

I think they're going to destroy the bills on Sunday. And I think that Titans team is maybe not a contender in the AFC, but I absolutely think that they're having an inside track shot at making the playoffs. Absolutely. Yeah, no, definitely. What's your sneaky truth this week? So I want to talk about this. I gave you the Andrew Luck Nugget.

And on Sunday, there were five 400-yard passing games. Okay? there have been 12 through the first month of the season. There were eight total 10 years ago. That's where we're at, okay? The quarterback pass-a-rating. Aaron Rogers has the highest in history at 103. Mitch Trubiskees at 101 this year.

Kirk Cousins has the same rating through four games. Kirk Cousins, by the way, Vikings have not set the road on fire. Kirk Cousins has the same exact mark as Aaron Rogers' career mark. Ryan Tannhill, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Patrick, Mahomes, golf, and Breeze obviously are higher. So there's Aaron Rogers' career passer rating, the highest in NFL history, would be eighth this season, ninth this season among passers. That's where we're at. And I think we need to start looking at the fact that the NFL record books are about to look very, very stupid.

Breeze is going to set the mark this year for passerating but I think you're you know how you ever hear the whole thing about how like someone alive right now or someone who's born this year is just going to like live to be 200 years old you ever heard that stuff? Of course. Of course. The number is right?

Someone who's coming into the league in 2017 or 2018 is going to have all of the records and it might be like five guys. Yeah, I totally agree. I mean how many yards is Mahomes going to throw for? Yeah. Like in his life. Yeah.

It's absolutely unbelievable. Jared Goff? Yeah. No, I totally agree. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who, you know, has 15 years left in him of just doing this again? Yeah. I mean, it's crazy. And we're just going to see some astronomical numbers.

I totally agree. What's going to happen? I've talked to this before, and I've talked to Hall of Fame voters. What are we going to do with the Hall of Fame? It's going to be really interesting. And obviously, I mean, this is the juiced ball era of football. what are we going to do with Matthew Stafford when he owns tons of records and he put up some of the best passing number of his era and let's assume he doesn't win a Super Bowl? What do we do with Matthew Stafford and his career when we look back on it? I'm really fascinated to see how this develops. Yeah. One of the answers, one of the answers is just sort of the anti-analytic thing, which is the numbers become so inflated. Okay, even if you look at an era, like it's hard to judge this. So we just go, based on how much you won, how much, how many Super Bowls you won,

which would be kind of a bad way to look at things, but it might be the way it goes because it's going to be really hard to judge this era of offensive statistics. Yeah, there's almost no way to do it properly. I mean, because we have just nothing to compare it to. I'm with you here. I totally agree. All right, that's my sneaky truth.

It's going to sneak up on us. It's going to sneak up on us, and one day we're going to be trying to put Matthew Stafford in the Hall of Fame. All right. very quickly, quick pick for Thursday night football. The Colts at the Patriots. All I want to say here is that I think the Colts defense is very under read. Me too.

And I don't know if Darius Leonard is going to be playing this week. He's a little banged up. If he is not, that is a concern because they absolutely need him against the, just the schematic kind of elements of what the Patriots are with the running backs and everything else. But I think this group up front is playing extremely well. They're second in the league in sacks with a similarly low like blitz percentage to the one that the bears have. So I think that Chris Bauer has done a super underrated job of putting this team together over the last year. Patriots by 10.

Yep, that's all you need to say. Yeah, exactly. For all of the optimism moving forward, you may have about the Colts, Patriots by 10. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you so much as always. We sincerely appreciate you listening to the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network. We'll be back on Sunday night.