The Ringer NFL Show - MVP Tiers: Who Can Win It in 2022?

Episode Date: August 25, 2022

Sheil and Ben go through their list of NFL MVP candidates and pick their potential winners for the upcoming season. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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If you want to hit them straight out there, please check out Fairway Rowland every week, available on Spotify. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Shield Capadia here, joined by Ben Solac. We are talking MVP's today. Ben, when I last saw you, we were having a little meal in La Trobe, Pennsylvania,

at Steelers Training Camp. I thought your etiquette with the waitstaff was great there. basically how I judge every person I come across. I didn't know. That was a thing. I'm glad I passed the test. You unknowingly passed the test. So good job by you. How are we doing today? I'm well. I'm now mentally calculating how I've treated every weight staff I've seen over the last like seven days and hoping that I would have passed Yocopatia's character benchmark in the event that he was there watching. I'm good. I was in Indy. Now I'm in CINC and the Rams are also in CINC. Me and Sean McVe, two major celebrities that Seth Wickersham has profiled.

here in lovely southeast in Ohio. And then, yeah, after Sincy, I've done. This is officially a wrap on training camps here for me this season. I know you're pretty much done. We're getting to the point in the Jersey countdowns where we've left the defensive backs, and we've gotten into like the quarterbacks and the receivers. It's how you know the door is knocking, baby.

We're in the teens. That's right. I am ready for the season to start, and today's conversation is going to be a good jump into this season. So here's how we're going to do it. We've broken the MVP's candidates into three tiers. And this is basically, you know, the fan dual odds. This was the easiest way to do it.

So the first tier, we have the favorites. The second tier, we have the tweeners. They're not quite favorites, but you know, you're not going to be shocked if one of these guys wins MVP. And then we have the sleepers, which I'm excited to see what you came up with there. So we're just going to pick one guy who we like from each of these three categories and try to figure out who is going to win the MVP this season. So let's start it with the favorites. So these are guys who have odds that are plus 1,000 or better again. And this is just a good framework to put into context who the favorites are.

The five candidates from this group, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rogers. Ben, who do you like? Who is your pick from this group to win the MVP? I think everybody wants to pick Justin Herbert, right? And maybe that's a, I'm ringer-pilled thing. I'm ring-er-versed. But I think everybody wants to pick Justin Herbert. When it comes to the top group, you're not going to find an argument that, like, works

for one that doesn't work for another besides the like the shiny new thing is fun and Herbert is the one in the group who has not yet won the award which makes it just like especially in a game of like offseason predictions all the more tempting to pick him. We typically see from MVP winners extremely high rankings in EPA,

total EPA, we see division winners. We typically see guys who also achieve a first round buy. That number is a little bit skewed now because obviously it's won fewer first round by than there was But we're typically talking about top two seed team finish. And we're seeing a guy with high touchdown totals. All of these quarterbacks can fit that argument. If you're looking for the really strong Herbert case,

it's if they win the division, it'll be very hard to give someone else MVP because it means that Herbert beat Mahomes. Not like actually, but that's how MVP voters will think about it, right, in terms of if they're winning the division, which they must do in order to get one of these top seats, then he out-dued Mahomes. He out-class Mahomes and Russell,

Wilson ex-MvP, yada, yada, yada, kind of whatever. And as we know, this is a narrative award. It's a counting award. Herbert's also got a really good case for passing touchdowns, because they let him throw it a lot in the red zone and the low red zone. It's also how they built their team, right? Look at the Chargers receiving core. They're not fast, but they are big,

and they can separate and they can test the ball. So they are built to throw the ball into the end zone. The only thing you're worried about is how much he gets to throw the football relative to the other guys, because this Chargers team does look for some balance in terms of the way they try to distribute the football. Herbert tends to throw it a little bit shorter than some of these other guys. So the counting numbers might not get up there.

But to me, if I'm like splitting hairs between the top guys, I think the newness and excitement of Herbert relative to like, oh, let's give it to Mahomes again, that matters when it comes to discussing this award. And so, like, Herbert, to me, gets the edge in the top contenders group. Yeah, I think you hit it with the profile. there. And if you look at it, the last nine, and I only did nine, because if he go 10, Adrian Peterson gets

in there, and that feels like a whole different world. Yeah, I forgot to even put that in at the top. The other qualifiers that a quarterback wins the award, period. If you bet on a non-quarterback to win MVP, I'm out. I mean, I can't even imagine the outrage if a running back won the MVP in the year

2022, the discussions and the conversations that would be going on. So yeah, I think it's going to be... Never mind. I'm back in. Running back should win MVP. Give me something to do. Jonathan Taylor, there you go. So on average, these quarterbacks, the last nine MVPs, their teams have won 12.9 games. So it goes to what you're saying,

where it doesn't necessarily have to be the number one seed. But man, you have to be absolutely team success matters. You have to be one of the best teams in the NFL. The only MVP in the last nine years, whose team won fewer than 12 games was Matt Ryan in 2016, and they won 11 games, and they were the two seats. So that is a good framework to look at the same. And like which of these teams can win 12 games.

And honestly, all the guys we've mentioned, they probably fit that profile. I mean, Josh Allen, the bills I think have the highest over under win total. I have them winning 12 or 13 games. He's capable of just putting up silly numbers, both just passing and rushing. So I don't, you know, I think he's the favorite for a reason. I went with Herbert to it. I know people get sick of the Chargers love year in and year out from the national media. But like you're seeing a little bit of can he just win a playoff game before we

crown him, I just think that's going to look so silly. That's going to look terrible by the time his career is over. You know, Herb, they had a top five offense last year. He was a top five quarterback. He threw for over 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. I look this up. The players who've hit those marks in a single season, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, and Matthew Stafford. So you have like five, you know, first ballot Hall of Famers, and then Matthew Stafford in that group. Herbert is 24 years old. I mean, they didn't. didn't have team success last year because their defense sucked and their special team sucked. It had nothing to do with Justin Herbert.

Like figuring out why the Chargers didn't win games is not difficult. You watch Herbert and then you watch the other players. Like, aha, I get it now. Yes, absolutely. And so if the defense is even going to be mediocre this year, if the special teams is not going to be a complete train wreck, I mean, these feel like pretty low bars to clear here with the Chargers. I've got the Chargers winning the AFC West.

I think they're an 11 or 12 win team. And so I picked Herbert too. Maybe we both did get, what did you call it? Ringer Pilled here. Maybe we both did get ringer pilled here and went with the shining new toy in Justin Herbert. But I like him in that category. I think Alan was the other guy. You can't tell me that doesn't matter in terms of when the hairs do get split.

And I can prove this to you because last season, Brady should have won MVP over Rogers. However, nobody wants to give the MVP award to Tom Brady. We just don't want to do it. Now, it's boring, and we're over it. Even, like, Rogers, who's also been around, who won MVP the year previous, is still, like, has enough of, like, shiny newness that he gets the award.

Or this was, this was he going to me two years ago for him. Obviously, last year we had, what, was it Stafford last year? I don't remember. But when, okay. Rogers, yeah. Rogers won back to back. Yep. Rogers won back to back.

Okay. I don't know. I remember now what the confusion was. Because Stafford was really high in total EPA, and we thought he was going to win the award, but then he didn't. But the new, of players, right? We had that run

with, like, Lamar and with Mahomes, everybody was like, second year quarterbacks, are just going to win it forever. When somebody is new onto the scene, that matters. This is also me setting up by argument for the long shot later down this podcast. We'll get to that when we get to that. Okay, well, let's get to the tweener. So these are guys, their odds are between,

you know, greater than plus 1,000, and plus 2,000, or lower. So here are the names in this category. Joe Burrow, Russell, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. Who do you like from this group? Lamar.

If we are going, yeah, if we, everybody here is fun. Everybody here is a good bet, I think makes sense. The resurgence of Lamar gives me some pause because while it's always fun to like try to buy low on a guy for MVP, you also have to acknowledge that means you're technically buying him for a comeback player of the year. which is not the award,

and he will not win the bet in the event that he wins comeback player of the year. But you have to watch out for that with Lamar. He's coming off of injury. And so if he's one of two guys, if it's him and Herbert,

they can very easily give the award to Herbert, and then Lamarge gets a comeback player of the year, and you kind of just feel better about that. And so that introduces some danger. However, if we are looking at, again, potential division winners and a 12-win team, the Ravens are going to improve drastically on defense

because of injury luck. They, I think, have improved along the, offensive line with the addition of Tyler Linderbaum and the presumed return of Ronnie Stanley. I think they're going to change what they do offensively a little bit as well. I think you saw with Marquis Brown being traded away, with the kind of emphasis now in training camp on honor center and some of this play action stuff, that they're going to be a passing team more between the numbers instead of deep vertical down the field. And if you go back and look at what Lamar throws really well, it's that intermediate hole.

It's that kind of that between the numbers, 10 to 20 yards, he was graded it in college, he's been good at in the pros. I think they're going to redistribute their targets to be there. And then you're going to get a really good passing season from Lamar accordingly. You get J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back in the backfield. You should be able to rely on the running game a little more. They should all look more like it did during Lamar's first MVP season. And then, in the event that they are winning the division,

they're doing it over Joe Burrough. They're doing it over the Bengals, which is a very big deal because the Bengals were the AFC contender. They were the AFC representative last year in the Super Bowl. Like if Lamar wins the division with 12 wins and Dak wins the division with 12 wins, it feels like winning the AFC North matters a little bit more in that regard, especially because the AFC is just generally going to be so competitive.

So in that second tier, like, Kyler would be really fun. I think it would be awesome to make a Kyler MVP case after everything that this past season has been. But I think Lamar is probably the smartest guy to take from that group. I need more from you on why this offense is going, you know,

I look at their weapons. I'm not in love with them. The offensive line, I think the best case scenario is that it's like, you know, slightly above average. I don't think it's like an elite group. And so, you know, the changes you mentioned that they could have schematically, the coaching staff is the same. Greg Roman is still the play caller.

Like, I looked at that and said, I just don't think the offense is going to be like a top five offense. And the supporting cast isn't great. And I don't see the path to them getting back to that 2019 level or really anywhere close. I mean, I have them outside the top 10 when I'm ranking the offenses. So give me more on why you think like this year, those scheme changes, the under center play action are coming and what they can do to get him in that conversation. So to me, it's all pendulum swings, right?

Like Lamar offense arrived and everybody was like we have no idea what to, like, the defense has just had their pants down for like weeks, right? There was no idea how to react to this. You and I might use the analogy of the 2017 Eagles with the RPO, right? Like, they started running the RPO in the season during 2017. And as they went week after week, they're like, oh, defense has really done what to do with this. It just became more and more and more of the offense, right? So now your pendulum is swinging.

So when Lamar arrives and it's like, okay, nobody taught these guys how to fit like GT counter, right? You got two pullers. It's a shotgun run. It's a college run. Nobody knows how to fit this, John. I just keep doing it until they figure it out. Like, that was great. And then the pendulum swings and defense has started to get an answer.

Like, I think you look back on what a lot of the Bengals defensive performances have been, especially with Lou Aniruma there, against the Ravens. And you start to see, you know, there is no blueprint. Remember last year when, like, the Lions held the Ravens, like, 19 points? Everybody was like, people are calling Aaron Glenn, asking what the blueprint is. And then, like, Lamar scored 30 in the next three weeks. There's no blueprint because he's ludicrously talented. But you're starting to see defenses get, like, coached specifically over the course of the summer,

of course of multiple weeks, like, hey, when we get Lamar, at a mesh point, like putting the ball in the belly of the running back and reading out and end, this is how we're going to behave. It's starting to become indoctrinated. It's starting to become normalized, starting to become a part of the habit, especially for teams in the AFC North. So I think you start to see the pendulum swing back towards defenses. They start to figure out, okay, this is not actually a give. Lamar's always keeping it. We can play it like this, and they start to cheese around the edges. I think this season is the season you start to see the pendulum swing back to the Ravens. Firstly, because they've had a couple of seasons

now to look at it. You get time is just going to help you figure out what works for us and what doesn't. Secondly, they've made personnel changes that belie, not belie, but indicate schematic changes. All they did every single offseason was talking about, we have to throw the ball deep down the field, we have to be deep passing team. The morning he's better, be a better deep passer. And then they traded away Marquis Brown's past off season, which is not what you would do if you were still prioritizing that. Markis Brown is a largely overrated deep catcher because he cannot track or catch a football. But like, still, that's a body you need in

the room. You need the speed. They grabbed Tyler Lenderbomb. Great pick in terms of, like, you know, values, kind of like fell into their lap outside the 20s. He does not make sense to the way they used to run the football, right? They needed, they had Patrick McCarrey, ex-Cal left tackle playing center, 320 pounds. When they were running this, this Oklahoma-style offense, right?

I think about the Oklahoma offices with Jaylon Hertz and with Kyle Emeritus of how they ran the football. They got a little bit smaller. They traded away Orlando Brown. They are, I think, telling you with their offensive personnel moves that a change is coming. And I'll put it to you this way. I think if Greg Roman came to John Harbaugh,

who fired Don Martindale last year, let him walk because schematically they needed to do different things, I think if Greg Roman had walked up to John Harbaugh and said, yeah, I'm going to run the same stuff next year. I don't think Greg Roman would still have the job. So to me, something has changed because Greg Roman is still there.

And if we're just doing the Greg Roman stuff, Greg Roman would not be there. So it's tea leave reading. But I think the Ravens are telling us, like, you know, I tweeted, something about under center play action and a couple of Ravens. They've run it a lot in the preseason.

I think the T leaves are there that the Ravens are going to change what they do offensively and they're changing what they do defensively a little bit with Martindale there or with Martin Dale gone, excuse me, McDonald there. And I generally trust that coaching staff and I trust the talent of Lamar. So it's prognostication, but that's what the podcast episode is. All right. I like it. You made a good argument.

I mean, if that happens, if they're like a top 10 offense, if Lamar is even in the discussion for MVP, I mean, that's a Super Bowl contender because I think their defense is going to be really good. They're going to have the best special teams in the NFL. And I think Harbaugh, in terms of game management, is probably the best coach in the NFL. So they've got a lot of those edges. I just need to believe it, you know, see it to believe it with their offense.

All right, I'm going with, and I guess this is sort of on brand. I know we talked a little bit about this in our last episode. I'm planning my flag on the Bengals. They're going to stave off regression this year. And Joe Burroughs going to be a monster. We're going to talk about this a lot during the season, brother. You know what? The, I understand.

all the arguments against it. I get all of those. I feel like there are enough factors swinging the other way. I mean, this guy had a bottom five offensive line last year and threw for over 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns. I mean, you know, a 5,000 yard 40 touchdown season that's absolutely in play with somebody like Joe Burroughs. It's just going to take two very simple things.

One, Zach Taylor, do not be running that football on second and long, my friend. Let's just let's put the ball in this player's hands. You're going to pay him a lot of money. He's the franchise. You can throw the football more. You don't have to be as balanced, which they were striving for through the first, what, 12, 13, 14 weeks of last season.

And number two, it's the offensive line. I know they didn't sign any all pros. I know it's on the top five offensive line. But again, you go from like 30th to like 21st with the offensive line. I mean, this is a player who took 51 sacks last year. Let's just cut that number down at least a little bit. He just fits my aesthetic for quarterback in terms of

option number one, push the ball downfield at all costs. Yes, I like that. That's how I like to watch football. Always give your receivers a chance. Trust them. I don't care if they're covered. You can make a great throw. They can make a great catch. He does that. And the third thing, and this is probably the biggest thing, I feel like he's going to be able to solve problems. You know, like single high defenses, he's going to chuck it outside. They're going to be a problem on the outside. Now, I hear this and he mentioned this earlier this off season. Hey, teams are going to play more too high against us. They're not going to and give up those explosive plays. I mean, Burroughs like the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. He is built to beat that type of defense.

Now, he's got to be a little bit more patient. And mentally, that could be a little bit of a struggle like it was with Patrick Mahomes at times last year. But I think he's easily going to be able to figure that out. And so I'm in on Burrow. I mean, he was coming off a knee injury last year. You factor all these things in. O-line, play-calling, healthier this year. He still got the weapons.

and I just feel like, regardless of whether you think the Bengals are going to win the AFC North or not, I feel like he's built to put up monster numbers. And if they do win the AFC North and win like 11 games or so, then I think he's firmly in the discussion and probably belongs, in my opinion, you know, with that first group of guys we mentioned. What if, but here's, okay, that's all fine. It's great. Whatever.

Congratulations. He has to be better than last year to win the MVP award. He can't be as good as last year to win the MVP awards. He didn't win the MVP awards. last year. So if you do the same thing you did the year you didn't win the MVP award, you don't win the MVP award.

So 70% completion percentage with that huge depth of target that you're talking about, 34 touchdowns. But like, okay, what were the issues for Burrough last year? Because statistically is amazing.

There's only one big problem on his counting stat sheet, which is what MVP voters care about. It's a sacks. So Burrough's going to win the award because he took like 15 less sacks. That's basically the argument. Because he has to be better

than he was last. year in order to win the award. That is a conditional on MVP science, the pseudoscience of MVP voting. I don't see how he completes like 75% of his passes for like 10 yards in attempts. This is a season that's never existed in history. Well, he doesn't necessarily have to throw for more yards. I mean, he could throw for 4,600 yards. That would be in the MVP conversation. Maybe he does take fewer sacks and that gets a little bit of a bump. It could come down to, you know, I know his touchdown rate was pretty high. I don't remember if it's unsustainable or not.

6.5%. How about it touched it? Okay. A touch on one of every 16 throws. Okay. He can throw for 40 touchdowns this year, Joe Burrow. Because he's going to have more attempts. That's the big thing that, you know, he's going to have more attempts.

So you keep a lot of the, even if the rate stuff comes down a little bit, I think they're going to throw the football more than they threw last year. Now, I don't have in front of me how many attempts he had last year. So if you tell me, like, led the. league in attempts, and I'm probably out of reasons. I don't think that he did because they were, they were so balanced. But to me, it's just the ball, the football is going to be in his hands more this year. I still think, you know, if he completed 70% of his passes again this year, that would not shock me at all, especially if they've got to throw the football shorter and he

can't push the ball downfield as much. And then, listen, whoever wins the MVP, you're getting lucky with the touchdown rate. And so I'm not telling you that it's going to be, you know, much better than last year. But could he throw for 5,040 touchdowns? Yeah, he could do that this year. Why not? All right. You're looking something up.

I'm scared. I am. So Joe Burrow was 15th in the league last year in, in total passing attempt. He should be top five. He should be top five in that. Come on. 15th, very famously, above average in a 32 team league. All right.

I want to find what line would you set right now for Joe Burroughs passing attempts as the coming season? Total passing attempts. Oh, my gosh. I don't even know. you have to like give me the bar. I don't even know what like the average is. Can you throw like who led the league last year?

It was probably what, around like 600 or something? 625. No, Brady led it. 400 was, no, Brady led was, okay, first see, Burrow had 520.

I told you he was 15th. So 400 leading the league is just not going to work. Yeah, 625. Well, you were giving me a weird look. So you had me second guessing myself. No,

the real look is because Brady led a league was 719. Oh, 1719. Yes. Because right, Brady, Brady's season. you're like Brady was 44 and he led a league

and like passing attempts, passing completions, passing touchdowns. Every counting stat that we have, Brady was like, yes, I'm a middle-aged man, I do this more than everybody else. But like 719, Herbert 672, Mahomes, 658, Josh Allen, 646. So that's kind of like the, you know, the range you're looking for.

Yeah, Joe Burrow. 650 attempts get me for Joe Burrow. Okay, 650, that's the line you're setting. Yeah. All right. What is your, what's your Wawa Hogi order? Well, as you know, from our meal together, I'm a vegetarian. So I do, they have a nice cheese and veggie hoagie that I do with, you know, the fix-ins,

little salt pepper, oregano on that at the end. I'm more of a shorty man. As you get old like me, you know, you can't go with the classic. It's kind of too much on the body. I'll need like an afternoon nap. So, yeah. That's great. I was willing to bet your order.

I was going to bet I'll buy you a sandwich if he gets over $6.50. I didn't realize at the time. I forgot this is going to be a no-meat shorties. This is an incredibly easy bet for me. That's a good deal for you. You get it while. Yeah. It's a good deal.

All right. Sandwich bet on the line. I'm saying Burley comes in under 650 attempts. I would be, I would be... All right. So that's a referendum on Zach Taylor more than anything, right? Yeah. We're in MVP.

We're not just looking at the quarterback's vibe. Look at the environment. All right. Are you in college practiced yet? Sorry, whatever. Now, listen, I am not afraid to crush Zach Taylor in situations where I feel like he's doing Joe Burrow wrong. So if it's like week six and it's looking like you're going to win this bet,

I'm going to be all over him. But yeah, I'll take that. And I'll get you the hoagie if I lose. All right. We already got a hoagie bet on the board. All right. Good discussion. Let's get to the sleepers.

I'm, you know, and I like Lamar. I think the Ravens are going to be good. But come on. Let's settle down on the Joe Burrow regression nerds. Calm down. He's going to have a good year. All right. The sleepers, this is fun.

This is a fun category. These are guys whose odds are plus 2,500 or worse. And so you can pick anyone on this list. I'll just run through some of the names on here. Derek Carr, Trey Lance, Jalen Hertz, Matt Ryan, Tua, Trevor Lawrence. I mean, those are just some of the ones that I wrote down. Ben, who do you like from this group? This is a fun one.

To me, it came down to two guys. So I'm curious to see who you came up with. Great group. And it's worth emphasizing, like you said, these guys are all 25 to 1. well last season Rogers preseason coming in was the second favor to win the award. He was 10 to 1. Before that,

five of the previous six winners have been 25 to 1 or longer, including Rogers coming into his 2020 season. Lamar was like 40 to 1. Mahomes was like 35 to 1. These guys were second year quarterbacks, right? They were surprises. And so not unreasonable.

It is unreasonable. Don't waste your money. But not unreasonable to take some flyers on these guys, right? Just for fun because it's a fun thing to do. I've talked about high passing volume. I've talked about division winners. Another thing is a high touchdown volume as well.

We typically see the touchdown leaders just in terms of counting stats are guys who are in the contention of war, if not winning the MVP award. I've talked about EPA. I would like an efficient quarterback who throws the ball a lot on a team that ends up winning their division.

So, Trevor Lawrence is 75 to 1 to win the MVP. Wow, yes. when it comes to divisions that are legit open the AFC South is I think one of the first that comes to mind. It's like it's the AFC South and then it's the NFC South.

The NFC South has Brady, excuse me. The what's the NFC East? I literally forgot what division the Eagles were in for like 10 seconds. When it comes to divisions that are open, you have the AFC South and you have the NFC East.

Then the NFC East is a little bit more of like a two horse race. You're choosing between Hertz and choosing between DAC. I think Hertz is also a fun bet, reasonable bet. And then I think there's an instinct to go to the AFC South and say, okay, you have the Titans who won the division each the last couple years, and you have the Colts who have always been a good team. They've always been around.

And now they have Matt Ryan. I think that framework grossly underestimates just how deleterious Urban Meyer was to this football team last year. Yeah. They were. Like, I don't think I can emphasize enough. how much of a wash last year is in terms of like, people like, oh, Lawrence didn't look good at his rookie year.

I could not care less because I cannot conceive of an environment in which anybody would have looked worse than that environment, an environment that would have been that detrimental to like a rookie quarterback and just the general professionalism of a guy in his first year in the league. And Lawrence was incredible in terms of like handling it,

but the team itself was dreadful. That's number one. The other thing that I think pulls people away from the Jaguars is the fact that they did overpay for many of the players that they now have. Christian Kirk probably got too big of a contract or bigger than a contract he was going to get elsewhere. Same thing with Zay Jones comes from the Raiders. You know, we have the franchise tag on Cam Robinson. Don't think a lot of teams are going to hop around franchising tagging Cam Robinson. Foli Folli Folli Folli-a-A-Lu-Luac-Con big contract, so on and so forth.

while the spending maybe isn't good, objectively the players are better. And that's what matters when come week one. Foli Fadikasi, you know, the boy side of a luicon making, you know, $50 million over five years. It doesn't matter once he's tackling people, right? If he's making place, he's making place, period.

And he is clearly an improvement upon what they had. And they did that on all three levels of the defense, and they did that in pretty much every area of the offense. They also introduced a guy who you and I know is very important, which is Doug Peterson. Peterson is a wonderful coach when it comes to quarterback development. He is a pass-happy coach who makes things easy on his quarterback. He uses his quarterback in the red zone.

I don't think the Jaguars are going to win the division. But I do think that Lawrence at 75 to 1 implies they have like no shot. And that is inaccurate. I know that because they split with the Colts last year. All they got to do is go like 3 and 3 and 4 and 2 in this division and then beat the jets, be the Giants, beat the lions. All of a sudden you're at 500. and now it's a matter of

are you stealing a couple from the good teams? Which, once again, we know they did last year because they beat the bills. This team has actual talent. You put this roster against the Titans roster. I think this roster is better. And they're not being priced as such. Second year quarterback run is kind of done.

Like the whole Mahomes-Lamar thing, we got everything excited. But in terms of shiny newness, the NFL's wanted to crown Lawrence since his freshman year at Clemson. And if the Jags are 10 and 7 winning the division, it's not great. But they have the window to crown Lawrence there,

I think they'll take it. So in terms of like MVP bets that I have entering the season, right now my biggest position is on Trevor Lawrence, quarterback. Wow. Awesome. And I know that's a little bit sick, but basically it's,

like, you should bet Jaguars over six and a half wins. I think that's going to happen. You should bet Jaguars will win the division at like plus five 50. I think it's going to happen. But these things imply that 75 to 1 is a horrible price. And so might as well take it. I like it.

Yeah, I was surprised he was so far down the list because of the reasons you mentioned now. It's hard to see like a ceiling for them that is really high. But like you mentioned, yeah, they could win that division. I think that, you know, worst division probably in the NFL. We almost always have every season a first to worst or worst to first division team, which is important to remember, right? Somebody somewhere is going to win the division. We don't expect them to.

The Ravens like would qualify this year, but the Jaguars also are one of those eight teams. Yeah, Peterson replacing a train wreck. I think your point about the offseason was great as I was analyzing every move. I'm going, what are you doing? This is ridiculous. What are you doing? But you know what? It's your Doug Peterson. You go to training camp. Hey, my roster looks a lot better than it did in January. I don't care what it's going to mean for us, you know, two, three years down the road. And so I feel like they can definitely achieve that like eight win, you know, eight win category. And if, you know, if you get some injury luck, if you get some one score games that go your way,

then that can all of a sudden become 10 wins. So I like that one. The last two guys I wanted to talk about here. these were the two I was debating between one of them you mentioned and we'll probably do more on Jalen Hertz in a future episode. I figured you know hurts. Yeah. We can table that, but great offensive line, excellent weapons with AJ Brown. Second easiest schedule in the NFL. If they win the NFC East and he runs for like 900 yards and his passing numbers are passable, then maybe he gets in the conversation. Here's the guy who I have and really the team that I'm having the hardest time coming up with an opinion that I believe in going into the. this season and so I need your help. And that's Tray Lance. No, no, no, I have an opinion on Tua, which I've shared in the Dolphins, which I've shared previously. Tray Lance and the Niners, I can't figure out. I think there's such a high variance team. I'm looking at this NFC and I'm going,

it's screaming for a sleeper. It's screaming for a sleeper to just get to the, get to the Super Bowl. And I'm trying to figure out what team that is. I'm looking at their offense under Shanahan. And there's this, I think, idea that it was good regardless. It wasn't good regardless. It was good when Jimmy G. It worked when Jimmy G was the quarterback. It didn't work when he wasn't the quarterback. I mean, they had three years with Shanahan where they were below average in terms of offensive DVOA. And that's because their quarterback stunk. So there is kind of a lower floor, I think, than people realize. What do you think of trade? You know, I wanted to go into the summer and read reports out of San Francisco that like, oh my gosh, Trey Lancet just carving up this 49ers defense. And man, he probably should have been playing last year. He's made this huge leap.

And you can't have really seen that. It's sort of been like, okay. a good day, he had a bad day, it's been up and down. I think Shanahan's been a little, you know, back and forth with kind of Lance's progress. And so I don't know what to expect for him and this team. I think they have a high ceiling. Where are you right now with your Trey Lance expectations? Yeah, it's such a good foil to talking about the Doug effect on Lawrence, because what we have seen from Shanahan is that when young players come into the building, their development is

very herky jerky. It can be all over the place, right? can be like incredible peak games and then in the doghouse three weeks later. And Niners fans hate when I talk about this. I think it's unfair to Shanahan. But it's just what happens with when young players come into San Francisco.

I don't know what you want for me. So I think Lance is going to have an extremely up and down season. I think it's going to be so visually evident why they drafted him, what he does to the offense, and how it's going to help. I think it's also going to be clear

that the one-year starter at the FCS level who's thrown like one pass in the last 954 days, whatever the heck the stat is. He started one game in the last, like, legit, like two and a half years. Yeah. I think it's going to be clear why that guy is not yet ready to lead the contending team.

And that's the thing that really gives me pause with Lance. Like, I think, like, there are some Lance overs that makes sense. I think Lance give a better season than people expect. But I do think it's hard for him to win MVP because I think it's hard for the Niners to have a better season than they had last year, right? It goes back to my, like, Joe Burrow, you have to get better sort of a thing, right?

Like, the Niners win the end of the championship game. They obviously didn't win the division, but they were in the NFC championship game. This team was really, really good at the end of the year. And so if, like, the Niners make the playoffs again, right? Because I don't think they would be like, maybe they will be like a top two seed coming out. That'd be surprising, but like even then, I don't know if it's going to be so obvious. Like, oh, it's because of Trey Lance. I think we're going to watch it and be like, yeah, it's because of the defense, which was amazing last year.

Because of the running game and because of Debo, all of which were amazing last year. There's not a lot of room for Lance to like earn a piece of the pie. unless he's totally lights out. Would you be sick? I just don't see it happen. It's a good point because with Garoppolo, they had what, like a top five, top eight offense just by the efficiency stats,

and no one ever talked about Garoppel being the reason for that. It was Shanahan. And so the offense would have to be top two or three. It would have to be Lamar walking into the Baltimore offense where it's like, oh, this entire offense has changed, and this is the greatest player since sliced Red. He is the MVP. It has to be that plain as a nose on your face,

which I think is really tough to ask. It's a good point. Thank you for talking me through that. All right, this was good. We agreed on some. We disagreed on some. That was fun. We will be back with the Ringer NFL show tomorrow. Thanks to producer Stefan Anderson. Additional production supervision from Arjuna Ramgapal and Connor Nevins. Ben, enjoy Cincinnati. We'll talk to you soon.