The Ringer NFL Show - NFC South Offseason Grades

Episode Date: June 24, 2025

Sheil, Steven, and Diante use their expertise to analyze the NFC South division and discuss each team's offseason moves to determine what their level of success could be in the upcoming NFL season. T...ampa Bay BucsAtlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia, Steven Ruiz, and Diante LeeProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera GivensProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Folks, it's Jay Kyle Mann from The Ringer, and as always, basketball is so freaking, freaking good. It's so good, in fact, that the Ringer's NBA draft show is finally back just in time for a ramp up to June. We've got you covered every week as we take an in-depth look at who's got next for the NBA's future. We'll talk the rising and falling stocks of the best and the brightest prospects in the 2025 NBA draft class. From Cooper Flagg to Dylan Harper, the BJ Edgecom, and more. tap in with me on the Ringer NBA Draft show every Wednesday and make sure that you follow, subscribe, and hit us
Starting point is 00:00:35 with those five-star ratings. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Shield Capadia here with Stephen Ruiz and Deonté Lee. One more. One more preview. One, they're chanting. They're chanting in the streets here.
Starting point is 00:01:04 It's the NFC South, the only one we haven't done yet. Deonté Ruiz and I were talking before we came on that this is our last pod before vacation. I think that may be true for you as well. So I expect this to have kind of a last day of school, loopy feel here before we bid farewell for a little bit. The way that we've designed this has been perfect, like for people who don't know,
Starting point is 00:01:27 we've been recording some of these a little ahead of time because vacation has been coming for some of my coworkers here. This is literally my son's last day of school. Perfect. I've been catching up on TV shows, getting back in the gym. So I'm like, all right, from here until the end of July, this six weeks is for me to lock in and do all the things that you can't do
Starting point is 00:01:46 during the football season. It's also perfect to just get off your hottest takes because if you're just, you know, you're logging out for vacation. Exactly. Don't you have to deal with you. What are you going to do? Yell at me, I'm never going to hear you. That's right.
Starting point is 00:01:56 Delete the apps from your phone. Pay no attention. And then when you get back, oh, okay, that was kind of mean. But who cares? Training camp's right around the corner here. So if you've been listening, hopefully you have. You know what we're doing here.
Starting point is 00:02:08 We go team by team. We grade the off season. We say our. Are they going to be better or worse than last year and why? And then a way too early prediction. So we've got the NFC South. I wouldn't say these are, you know, the most talented teams in the NFL, the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the NFL. But there's at least a little bit of mystery about who's going to win the division.
Starting point is 00:02:33 Is there a sneaky surprise playoff team in here? Those kinds of things. So let's start with the reigning champs, that Tampa Bay Buccaneers. they are plus 100 to win the division minus 152 to make the playoffs. And they have the eighth best odds to come out of the NFC, which is kind of interesting. So the seven teams with the best Super Bowl, there are seven teams and all the other divisions that have better Super Bowl odds
Starting point is 00:02:58 than any team in the NFC South here. So to put that into context, their Super Bowl odds are sandwiched between the Vikings and the Cowboys. So likely to make the playoffs, yes, legit contender. At least the Fanduil odds would say no, but who knows? They're over under for wins is nine and a half. So let's start with their offseason. They had the funny thing with Liam Cohen where, all right, he interviews with the Jaguars.
Starting point is 00:03:23 He's coming back. They're telling everybody, anybody who will listen, they're calling random people, we cannot find Liam Cohen. Where is Liam Cohen? Liam Cohen goes to the Jaguars. All of a sudden, they have an OC opening. They replace him with Josh Grisard, who was already. on staff. He is their new
Starting point is 00:03:43 offensive coordinator. Personnel wise, they draft Emeka Egbuka, the wide receiver, in the first round. And defensively, they shuffle some pieces around. I would say most of the core of the defense is still there. And of course, they bring back Chris Godwin,
Starting point is 00:03:59 who was scheduled to be a pretty high price free agent, and they get him back. He doesn't test the market. It seems like a Mike Evans situation there, where they'll just, they just want to keep both those guys in box uniforms for as long as possible. All right, Deonti, you add it all up, the Tampa Bay box. How do you assess their offseason?
Starting point is 00:04:17 I ended up giving them a C-minus. I felt like that was kind of as lukewarm. I think that's an accurate representation of what their off-season was. You keep Chris Godwin, which I think is valuable for them. You lose Liam Cohen, and then you're promoting from within. So that does kind of raise some questions of like, who is Grisard as a play caller? What is it actually going to look like? Are you going to be able to borrow from the same infrastructure that's been built there?
Starting point is 00:04:40 with Dave Canales to Liam Cohen and go beyond from there. And you look at the draft, there's really not much to write home about, right? Emeka Igbuka is kind of going to be a very specific role player. And I think his ceiling is a high value role player because I think he can take a large target share, even if he's not the most explosive player, not the most explosive receiver to come out in the draft. But the defense is intact, like you said. I don't know if anything has really changed floor or ceiling for this team. I think that they're basically in the exact same position that we saw them in when they lost
Starting point is 00:05:10 in the playoff last year. Yeah, that's kind of how I feel about the offseason. It's just that I didn't see real evolution. I think it is commendable to keep your roster together. There is plenty of talent on this roster. But I think we do need to see some evolution from the defense. And Todd Bowles' approach to playing in this modern NFL where I feel like it's either boom or bust with them.
Starting point is 00:05:31 Like sometimes they get the right matchup and they just put the clamps on an offense and you watch it and you're like, Todd Bull still has it. And then other weeks he goes up against another, an offense that's usually like well-coached that can do different things in the run game. And that's when they really get burned. And it seems like they can't get a stop. And I don't see how that's meaningfully changed.
Starting point is 00:05:49 Unless it's on Reddit just like rediscovers his form from a few years ago and is able to effectively replace Shaq Barrett, who I feel like Tampa Bay has been trying to replace since that Super Bowl season. If they can get like a pass rush that is viable, which is four rushers, then I think you could see some evolution that allows this team to take a step forward. and that's also ignoring the question marks about losing your OC. But I do think if you are making an offensive coordinator change,
Starting point is 00:06:16 we can compare this to Detroit. They are not only replacing Ben Johnson, but they're replacing the heart of their offensive line, the interior of their offensive line. That's not necessarily an issue with Tampa Bay, where I think they had one of the more underrated offensive lines in the NFL last year. So I have more optimism about this offensive coordinator change,
Starting point is 00:06:34 even if I do think that Liam Cohn did a fantastic job last year in Tampa. Yeah, I gave him a B. I was a little higher on their offseason than you guys. Just because of the last thing you said there, Ruiz, I feel like their offense really played well last year. I mean, look at all the numbers. Third and success rate, fifth in EPAPE, A per drive, seventh in DVOA. And they're bringing back the entire offense.
Starting point is 00:06:57 And maybe you get better injury luck with someone like Chris Godwin. And you added Bucca who profiles as a guy who should be able to come in and play right away. Like Deonti said, he might not have 1,200 yards or lead all rookies. but it feels like that should be an upgrade there for your third receiving option. And if you have injuries to Evans or Godwin, you have a little bit more depth there. I kind of like the Redick signing. You know, OVE, I thought it was a good sort of reasonable, low-ish-risk flyer on a guy who's still only 31 years old. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to work out, but I thought that was a reasonable move.
Starting point is 00:07:28 You mentioned Godwin. So the big thing to me is the OC change. I think you're right. I think Liam Cohen did an awesome job last year. I mean, you can really make the case that if we just went through which coordinator, did it feel like had the biggest impact or did the best job with the talent at their disposable disposal. It's hard to make the argument that another OC would have done better than Liam Cohen last year. And that was like, I felt like that's all over the numbers.
Starting point is 00:07:50 That's all over the tape that this is. No, he's finding a way to maximize the pieces on offense here. So that does concern me. That's why I don't have them higher. And there's a little bit of a big question mark, I should say, with the first time offensive coordinator. But from a personnel standpoint, I didn't hate it for the box. better or worse than last year is the next question.
Starting point is 00:08:11 So they were 10 and 7 plus 117 point differential, sixth in the entire NFL, which I may have forgotten that it was that good. They had a couple games that they were running teams off the field. Yeah. Like Stephen was saying, they have some games where they can really get after you, even good teams in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:08:28 It's not just beating up on the poor teams in the NFC South. Yeah, that's the other thing. You look at who they beat. Now, some of these teams had injuries at the time, but they beat the commanders and the Eagles. the two teams in the NFC championship game. They beat the Lions, one of only two teams to do that all year. They beat the Chargers, you know, who were a playoff team in the AFC.
Starting point is 00:08:48 So they had some good wins. It wasn't just beating up on bad teams there. So they lose to the commanders in the wild card round. Now you look at it, Ruiz. Are they positioned to be better, worse, or I guess you can say the same as last year? I think it's the same. And I know that's like the easy cop-out answer, but it's, just goes back to DeAndi and I, in my analysis of their offseason,
Starting point is 00:09:13 I just don't feel like there is meaningful change. So I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same. I think one area where you could get some progression is Baker Mayfield, just getting more reps. And I think he's at a formative part of his career right now, which people I think underestimate how often quarterbacks grow in their late 20s, early 30s, and maybe fill in some of the gaps in their game, especially like the smaller detail things.
Starting point is 00:09:36 I think Baker Mayfield still has a lot of room to grow in that area in terms of timing, how he works the pocket. And I don't necessarily think we saw the ceiling of this offense last year. And a lot of that may depend on the offense coordinator. We have no way of judge. Like, Gryard could come in and be better than Liam Cohen. Cohen was better than Dave Conallis. And I don't think anyone expected him to be better than a guy that got a head coaching job, especially in year one. So I do think there are areas where they can grow, but it's not based on what they did during the offseason.
Starting point is 00:10:04 and it's just based on in-house progression. And I think Baker Mayfield is at the heart of that. Like when Baker Mayfield is delivering the ball on time and it's coming out and he's like making the throws down field, the ambitious throws down field, this offense looks like world beaters when he's getting shaky in the pocket and getting happy feet, which he's still, you know, that still happens from time to time. It's mitigated by a good offense line. But if he can eliminate those games from his game,
Starting point is 00:10:29 then I think they have a chance of being better on offense in terms of, not in terms of production, but in terms of reliability. and when they get to the playoffs. Yeah, that was the old Pete Carroll rule. He's like, year six, year seven. That's when a quarterback finally kind of figure, you know, that's when they become a finished product where it's like, oh, I've seen this before.
Starting point is 00:10:48 Okay, let me work on the little nuances of playing the position. I remember he used to say that in Seattle quite a bit. Deonti, what do you think? 10 and 7 last year, better or worse in 2025? I think that they'll be better. I just don't, it's going to be interesting, I think, to hear everybody's, take on what this season is ultimately going to play out like for Tampa Bay because I don't
Starting point is 00:11:10 expect anybody else in the NFC South to compete with them. I don't know if the record necessarily is going to take a big leap from 10 wins to 12 or 13, right? That would be a major outlier in terms of progression. But I think that they'll be better because the one thing the Bucks have proven over the last half decade or so is that they might be the best franchise in the NFL in terms of getting their players to above average level play. They've struggled with finding stars. And part of that is the fact that they've been competitive now for a half decade plus. So it's just difficult to get yourself in position to be able to go get those top tier players without having to do something painful in terms of trades or maybe overspending or putting yourself
Starting point is 00:11:50 in a bad spot in terms of cap space mechanics. But I think that they do a really good job of just getting guys to a certain base level. And when you look at their depth chart, there really there really aren't holes. There's never been a matter of them having big holes. the worst was the interior of the offensive line a couple of years ago, and they've made so many leaps and bounds now in that respect. Having Tristan Werf's healthy last year was also a big deal for them, both in the run and the past game. And I think that all those things are going to continue to lead them forward.
Starting point is 00:12:17 So again, even if John Gazzard is not the greatest play caller of this era with Baker-Mayfield at quarterback, he has so many things that he can choose from in terms of getting the ball to playmakers. You look at their wide receiver depth chart, even if Chris Godwin needs to be on a pitch count coming off of this injury. You have Jaylen McMillan who was really productive in the back half of last year. You have a Mecca, who I mentioned can be a high target, high volume type of guy. You still have Mike Evans who can roll out of bed and get you 1,000 yards in the season, no matter how old he is.
Starting point is 00:12:46 I feel really bullish about this team being a legitimate playoff team, basically wire to wire next year. It's going to be really difficult for me to see them fall way off. And I think that they took maybe one of the better measured gambles early in the draft and taking Benjamin Morrison. Obviously, the hip injuries is a big issue. You have to have questions about what his long-term viability is going to look like in the league for a guy who's had multiple hip surgeries. But if he could be anything like what we saw at Notre Dame, I mean, he could have been the number one corner in college football before the injuries really started stacking up. And the tape looked good when he was on the field. And maybe he can come in and compete in the slot.
Starting point is 00:13:23 You know, he might not have the top end speed to play outside. But that's a good tackler. That's a guy that makes plays on the ball. Really aggressive guy. and they're kind of missing that piece at the corner position. It's a lot of guys who are above replacement level, but not really difference makers. So adding something like that can be a big difference for them.
Starting point is 00:13:39 But I do think overall, in the aggregate, they're going to be better, even if they have not necessarily identified a superstar level player on either side of the ball. I'm trying to decide if you talked me into it, Deante. I had them as slightly worse. You were making compelling arguments. I feel like I would be surprised
Starting point is 00:13:56 if their offense took a step forward this year. I just feel like there's too much uncertainty there around the new play caller. But Ruiz's point is right. We don't know anything about this guy. Maybe he'll be awesome. He might be in that. Maybe he's in the head coaching conversation next off season. Like there is a wide range of outcomes there.
Starting point is 00:14:14 But again, I just think Liam Cohen, the way they schemed up sort of that short passing game and making plays after the can, not creating a lot of tight window throws. Not that Baker Mayfield can't do that. But I do feel like there were some good easy buttons with this offense last year that are a bit of a question mark here. Now, the other point in Deonte's favor, though, is Godwin and Mike Evans combined for 21 of a possible
Starting point is 00:14:37 34 games last year. So if they're just a little bit healthier, now all of a sudden there is a path to your passing attack being a little more potent, being a little bit more explosive there. So we'll see if their offense is better, takes a minor step back. If I had to guess,
Starting point is 00:14:53 I would say minor step back. And then the defense to Deontes point, yeah, if the rookies come in and play well, maybe you got to chance. It looks pretty mediocre to me just on paper. You know, if I had to, if I had to suggest, hey, what's the most likely outcome? It would be mediocre defense, above average offense, but maybe not as good as last year. And to your point, that easily could win the NFC South and mean that they're a playoff team. All right, way too early prediction. Deontay, what do you got? This one's tough. This one's really tough. It was hard. Because the range of
Starting point is 00:15:26 outcomes feels kind of tight even for a team that has been successful year over year because they're very firmly not a contender in the NFC, at least not the way that I visualize them, right? I think that a lot of things would have to go wrong in Detroit in Minnesota, for Philadelphia, for Washington, for us to consider them a true contender in the NFC. So I really went with, I ended up going with Tampa Bay being top five in DVOA on office. I think that they'll be really good offensively. I think the running game was maybe the biggest development last season.
Starting point is 00:15:56 And they did not take any steps back in that regard. And if they're able to recreate that this season and really able to build a play action passing game with all the guys that they have in the wide receiver room, I think it's entirely possible that they could be really explosive, both in the run game and in the passing game. So, yeah, I would say a top five DVO in terms of the past game. And then you look at their schedule and there should be plenty of opportunities to do so, seeing the NFC South.
Starting point is 00:16:20 They see Miami's defense, which is projecting to be one of the worst in the league. the Patriots defense still needs to show them to prove, even though they spent a lot of money on that side of the ball. So I think that there's going to be a lot of opportunities for them to kind of run up to score on some teams, especially when they're playing within the division. Yeah, eighth easiest schedule overall when you look at Super Bowl. So to your point, you know, if you say,
Starting point is 00:16:42 hey, they could win 10, 11 games like that. There is a path to that for them this year. If you look at all the other metrics we usually look at, nothing was really fluky last year. It's not like they, you know, feasted on turnovers or really. healthy or they were only two and five in one score games. So there is a path for them to win more games, more than 10 games this year.
Starting point is 00:17:03 All right. My way too early prediction about we'll stick with Hassan Reddick as double digit sacks. Maybe I'm just thinking Hassan Reddick with the Eagles. Those two years. It has been a weird run for my guy, Hassan Reddick, Camden's own, Temple's own. I mean, he's awesome for the Eagles for two years. They can't get on the same page with a contract. They trade him to the Jets.
Starting point is 00:17:25 The Jets somehow trade for him without having a resolution to the contract. Finally, he shows up. He plays 10 games, which I forgot because he didn't do anything. One sack in 10 games. And now he signs with the box. And I'm like, all right, how old Sasan Redick? He's got to be what, 34, 35? No, he's 31 years old.
Starting point is 00:17:44 What a weird career when you go back to like the Cardinals days. It feels like last season aged him by like three years, isn't it? Yeah. But remember the days when he's playing offball linebacker? And it's like, no, let this guy rush the pass there. So I just feel like there's a double-digit sack season here for Hassan Redick. I think Todd Bowles, when Reddick wasn't showing up to the offseason stuff, Todd Bowles has been around the game a long time. I think he'll be like, that's cool.
Starting point is 00:18:09 Week one, go rush the passer. We'll be good here with Hassan Redick. And they need it to Ruiz's point. They need that pass rush from this unit. So I'm predicting a little bit of a bounce back season, 10 plus sacks for Hassan Reddick. All right, Ruiz. what do you have for your way too early prediction? I think if Hassan Reddit gets 10 plus acts,
Starting point is 00:18:28 I think the bucks might go to the Super Bowl. I do think there's like a scenario where they have this random year where Todd Bowles is back and they have a top five defense. They have talent on defense, and I think they'll be a good team at that point. But I don't necessarily think that's going to happen,
Starting point is 00:18:42 but I do think they're going to run away with the division. I think they'll win the NFC South by mid-December. And I would say earlier, but they play a lot of their divisional games in the month of December. Yeah. They play the Panthers twice.
Starting point is 00:18:54 They play the Falcons and the Saints back-to-back weeks in December. But I think by then the division will already be decided. Because I think there's a large gap between what they can be and what the rest of these teams can be. All right. The Tampa Bay Bucks once again, Ruiz says NFC South champs very early in the calendar. All right, let's take a break. We come back. Falcons, Panthers, and Saints.
Starting point is 00:19:19 All right. We are back on the Ringer NFL show, a team that. has we've talked about quite a bit. Maybe not for the best reasons this offseason. The Atlanta Falcons, they are plus 2.30 to win the division plus 146 to make the playoffs and they're over
Starting point is 00:19:35 under for wins is 7.5. Their offseason recap, Kirk Cousins, still on their roster. As of this recording, they lose Senator Drew Dalman in free agency. They're handing the keys over to Michael Pennix Jr. here at quarterback. They lose
Starting point is 00:19:50 some veterans on defense. They add some veterans on defense, but I think the biggest move they made, which is one we've discussed, and I have ripped, was the trade up in the first round for James Pierce, Jr. giving up a 2026 first round pick to move up from the second round to the 20s and draft him. You know what? I'm just going to go first. I'm giving them an F. Okay. They're offseason. I mean, just the two things. Kurt Cousins is still on the roster. Guys, what was your plan here? When you, you should have had this play. planned out when you drafted Michael Pennex Jr. Hey, if Kurt Cousins is only here a year, what are we going to do in year two when we're handing the keys to Michael Penix Jr.?
Starting point is 00:20:33 Did you not consider this possibility? Are you just playing chicken and now he's still somehow on the roster? You're paying him. You've got nothing for him in return. I don't understand how this has played out that way. Is that also the best case scenario that Michael Penix, your first round pick is taking over in year two? It's not even like this is like a contingent. plan that nobody could have ever seen coming back. Right. Like this was should have been top 10. This is your top 10 quarterback.
Starting point is 00:20:59 Yeah. So that's part one. And then, listen, I'm not going to harp on it. But that trade for James Pierce, Jr. was reckless. Horrible process. Now, if he has 18 sacks this season, please come at me. I won't even say, but I was ripping the process, not the result. No, if he does that, I'll say I was wrong.
Starting point is 00:21:19 Terry Fontenow, you nailed it. I'm a dummy. Maybe I can go get an old school. Michael Vic jersey or something and wear it on the show. I will pay some kind of punishment if that ends up looking like a good trade. I promise I won't just hide behind. Well, the process was bad. So for those two reasons, I'm giving them an F.
Starting point is 00:21:36 Falcons fans, I may have something nice to say later, though. So don't just think I'm ripping your team again. All right, Ruiz, what are you great in their offseason? I'm with you. I went with D-minus, but you convince me. It's an F. It's an F. Because it's not only like the moves they made.
Starting point is 00:21:50 It's like what they've left over for the next couple of years. in terms of building out the roster. Like the cash space isn't in a great spot. The draft capital is in a great spot. We don't know how to feel about Michael Penn at this point. I think there's some optimism. I think there's some reason for pessimism.
Starting point is 00:22:05 You can find anything you want if you watch the little sample size that we saw on his tape last year. The run game is still pretty good intact and should be good again this year, but it's hard to find places to be optimistic about with this team going forward. And after two very, very, eventful and monumental off-season, it doesn't feel like they're any closer to contention than they
Starting point is 00:22:28 were before they fired Arthur Smith and gave up on that Desmond Ritter plan. So, yeah, it's got to be an effort. Deontay, are we making a three in a row or are you being a little bit nicer over there? It's an F. And really, the grade is a Y, and Y as in somebody explaining to me why any of this offseason happened. Why did you take a tweener in the top 15 of the first round? There's no guarantee that guy's going to be a quality edge rusher, and that's where you need help. Then, why did you trade to get back in the first round to take a designated pass rush guy that you have no guarantee is going to be able to play on early downs when you know that this team probably needs to be taking the view of what's going, where are we going to be positioned in 2027 and 28? Not giving away
Starting point is 00:23:15 draft capital to try to maximize what's going on right now. Why is there no cousins trade? Why was there no cousins, contract reworking. Why are we still in the exact same position in June going into July as we were in January and February when it was clear that you guys were ready to hand the reins off to Michael Pennix Jr.? The only thing that has happened this offseason that I like was drafting Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman as safeties. And neither of those guys are probably going to be on the field because the other thing that I hated about this offseason is that this is basically like the washed up Rams reunion
Starting point is 00:23:49 on that defensive depth chart with what they did in free agency. Morgan Fox. I haven't really heard about positive Morgan Fox snaps since the Super Bowl run. And those positive Morgan Fox snaps were basically first downs only when it was him and the other big D tackles and it would get into those five down fronts to stop the run on first down. And he was swiftly brought off the field after that. You have Leonard Floyd, who was a great utility player.
Starting point is 00:24:12 I will say, like, that was one of my favorite, like, underrated NFL players to watch on film because the production never matched the value. He was so much more valuable than what you would see in the box score stats. And there's Jordan Fuller, who really has not provided, like, plus value at maybe, like, not heavily above replacement value at the safety spot for a while. I don't know where this team is going. If anybody can point me in the direction of where this is supposed to go,
Starting point is 00:24:39 if Terry Fontenough in detail to me why I'm supposed to take this team any seriously now, like Steven said, then what it was when Arthur Smith was a head coach, than what it was after Kyle Shanahan left in 2016, and they had to weigh through the Steve Sartesian one year and all of the mediocrity that came after before they parted ways with Dan Quinn. This team has been moored in the exact same spot since that Super Bowl loss,
Starting point is 00:25:04 and I don't think that this year got them any closer to being able to dig themselves out of this hole. Yeah, this all season really was like a Brandon Staley fever dream. Like you mentioned the Rams players, but also like Easton Stick is here, Storm Norton is here, Morgan Fox is also on those Chargers teams. It's like they did this to troll the Saints defensive coordinator,
Starting point is 00:25:22 which like maybe that's a good move for them. That's all the fan base seems to care about it now is beating the Saints twice a year. Yeah. The names are different. But I mean, they finished 29th and defensive DVOA last year until you're looking at the depth chart being like, all right, these guys weren't here. All right, they lost Justin Simmons, Grady Jarrett, Matthew Judon. And then to Deontes point, you take a step back and they're like, wait, are they better than they were last year?
Starting point is 00:25:45 I mean, it all comes down to whether you. you think these rookies can make an impact? I mean, they only had five draft picks. Sorry, that was the other reason why I was giving them an F. They made five draft picks, four on the defensive side of the ball. So maybe, you know, if those guys come in and play well right away, you got a chance to be a little bit better, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome when you're counting on rookies. And to Deontes point, some rookies who are actually blocked. And so unless there's an injury, are they even going to get on the field there? All right, This is actually, I think, interesting, better or worse than last year.
Starting point is 00:26:16 So they were eight and nine last year, where if you would have asked me before we prep for this pot, hey, Sheila, what was the Falcons record from last year? I would have gone lower. I forgot they were in it. They kind of had a chance there to pull up. They kind of took it all the way to the end for. They were going to look like they were going to be able to take it to the end for a little bit. Yep, they did.
Starting point is 00:26:33 So I forgot about that. Kurt Cousin started 14 games. Michael Pennix started three games. They were six and five in one score games. So nothing really out of the. norm there. They were 23rd and turnover EPA. Not a lot there. Fourth in adjusted games law. So they were the fourth healthiest team in the NFL. Is that going to happen again here or will their depth be tested more in 2025? That's the question. One thing working in their favor, and it really
Starting point is 00:27:00 works in the favor of every NFC South team is they have the sixth easiest schedule in the NFL. So, Ruiz, you look at all those things. Eight and nine last year is their hope for them to be better this year? Are you confident they're going to be worse? Or do you see them right around an eight-win team once again? I think they're going to be a little bit worse. I think the defense is going to be worse. I don't see where they improved. And I think a lot of their issues last year, namely on early down stopping the run and stopping like play action passes is there's still going to be a problem. Even with the draft picks, I don't think they really, they were targeted at their specific weaknesses, which I don't
Starting point is 00:27:36 necessarily think you should do with draft picks. But if we're talking about improvement, I don't think those draft picks, which are really their defensive, reinforcements for this year are going to improve in the area where they need it the most improvement. So I see them struggling on defense again. Offense is a tricky question because their run game was like sneaky good last year, like almost historically good in the modern context. And if they can replicate that and they can build upon that with a passing game that takes advantage of that in the ways they couldn't last year because Kirk Cousins couldn't move and they couldn't really run play action, I think there's a chance that their offense could be a little
Starting point is 00:28:07 bit better, but I think the defense just being either the same or worse is going to make things a lot more difficult for Michael Pennix, who could find himself in some bad game scripts, where he is not being asked to be a young quarterback. He's asked to grow up quickly and kind of lead this team and score a lot of points. We kind of saw it in the last game against Carolina when they wanted that win, and they ended up giving up 44 points. And it's just harder for a young quarterback to keep up with that. So I don't think it's necessary a context that Michael Pennix is going to thrive, and just because of what the pressure the defense is going to put on.
Starting point is 00:28:39 What do you think, Deontay? It's so funny looking at this one from a better or worse perspective because I think they'll be better, but I can't imagine there's like a less relevant better to be than where Atlanta is going, coming from to where they could be going because they were so aggressively mediocre at everything other than running the ball. Right?
Starting point is 00:28:56 Their early down passing, their early down passing had all these different fits and starts. It looked like a mess early in the season because they didn't want to run play action because of Kirk Cousins, you know, and trying to get more acclimated to the offense. They didn't know if they wanted to be a pistol team, more of a gun team, more an under-center team.
Starting point is 00:29:13 So it took them a while to kind of figure out exactly how to marry up what they could do in the run game with what they maybe would have wanted to do with Zach Robinson as a play caller in the passing game. And then later in the season, and once they handed the reins off, he started to see a little bit more of something that might be viable. In terms of early down passing, a lot of that is screens. A lot of that is yak stuff, moving Drake London inside to get him the ball, quickly and allowing him to go create after the catch.
Starting point is 00:29:38 So I do think that they'll be able to replicate that. I think the running game is going to be as dangerous as any in the NFL because of just how dynamic Bijjan Robinson is. The issue really is just the defense. And I mean, in any efficiency metric, you look up defensively, they are somewhere between like 21st and 28th. I don't know if anything happened that's going to make them better in that regard. The only thing that they've done really well is not giving up explosive plays.
Starting point is 00:30:02 And I was always the thing with Rahim Morris because you know you're going to get those soft zone shells. And there comes a point where there are diminishing returns. We've talked about that with Brandon Staley. This is also applied to Rahim Morris' defense. Even the year they won the Super Bowl, you really kind of had to dig to find the ways in which what they were doing defensively was valuable besides just cutting Aaron Donald loose
Starting point is 00:30:21 and hoping that he caused enough havoc on first or second down to put an offense into an obvious passing situation. There's nothing there that's that disruptive of force to be able to get them off the field when they need to get off the field. or to put them, put offenses behind the chains when they need that to happen. I don't think that this defense is going to be good enough. I think that the passing game will continue to grow. And ultimately, they'll be better,
Starting point is 00:30:45 but I don't think that it's going to be in a way that is easily identifiable based on what we see on a week-by-week basis for them. All right, I'm going to break character a little bit and say maybe they'll be a little bit better this year. Let me be clear. I do not trust the infrastructure. I think they make terrible decisions. However, I think there are some pieces on offense here that at least interest me, you know,
Starting point is 00:31:08 that you guys alluded to here. They were 14th in offensive DVOA last year. They were top 10 in rushing. They were 11th in EPA per drive. They were eighth in success rate. So the offensive metrics from last year would suggest above average offense. Now, that was with Kurt Cousins. So I will remind people, there was a little stretch there.
Starting point is 00:31:26 Kirk Cousins had some good games in there. He was not terrible the entire time. but I do think the one thing was you were a little limited in what you, a lot limited in what you could do with Kirk Cousin. So I do feel like getting a new quarterback in there who got his feet wet last year. It's not like, you know, he got three starts. So all right, you learn some things from that. I think their offense has a chance, you know, do they have a chance to be like a top 12 offense this year? I think it's in play with the run game with the offensive line.
Starting point is 00:31:55 It doesn't mean it's definitely going to happen. Like you guys said, Pennix is largely an unknown. we have, what, 113 dropbacks from him, and there were some ups and downs in there for sure. But I think their offense at least has a little bit of a chance. And defensively, I guess I don't know if we mentioned the coordinator change or not. Jeff Holbrook, tumultuous start to the, you know. Not a good start.
Starting point is 00:32:15 The prank call with the son's prank called tumultuous start to the defensive coordinator reign there in Atlanta. But I'm just like, they can't really be that much worse. You know, that's my argument. I'm not going to tell you they're going to be good. but it's like how much worse could they possibly be? They were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. And defense can be weird. You know, maybe you get a couple of young guys.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Maybe you get some turnovers. Maybe you face some bad quarterbacks. I don't know. Can you get up to like 25th? That would actually be an improvement this year. And maybe your offense is a little bit better. And again, that schedule is a little bit easier. So I'm going to say a little bit better.
Starting point is 00:32:51 And I'll follow up with my way too early prediction. Now, do I actually believe this? Probably not. But it's June. And this is why you do way too early prediction. So I'm taking this prediction for a test drive for six weeks or so. And then I'll come back and let you know if I'm sticking with it. How about the Falcons win the division?
Starting point is 00:33:09 I mean, were they that much. They were eight and nine last year. The bucks were 10 and 7. One thing goes one team's way this year. There's a chance. Panics could be kind of an exciting player. Would it be that crazy? You know, I was looking at the division odds.
Starting point is 00:33:23 They have around the same division odds for the NFC South. as the commanders do for the NFC East and as the Packers do for the NFC North. So this is not as crazy as maybe one would think. So there you go, Falcons fans. It's crazy. Come on now. It's crazy.
Starting point is 00:33:38 Like, yes, they were two only... Nine and eight? Nine and eight could win the division. They were only two games back in the bucks, but they were like 150 points back in terms of point differential. Like these are two separate. And that's counting the two wins they had over the bucks. That over the bucks, right?
Starting point is 00:33:51 Which was really just Kirk Cousins blacking out. Guess what? Kirk Cousins, I guess he could be walking too bad. Do you throw him in the roster? the box. How about that? He says you can't do that. You know, be innovative. That's a good idea there.
Starting point is 00:34:02 I think it comes down to how you Michael Pennix in his ceiling. I think it's, I do take your point where you're saying like having a more mobile quarterback in theory is better than having what Kirk, like having Kirk Cousins back there and trying to run this offense. But Michael Penningson isn't the most
Starting point is 00:34:18 mobile guy. Like when you watch him on the film, I know he ran like a 4-4-40, but I haven't seen that on film and he doesn't move a lot in the pocket and he's not a guy who throws on the move too much. So it remains to be seen what his fit is in this particular style of offense. And if he can capitalize on those looks that they're going to get from the defense because of their run game.
Starting point is 00:34:38 All right. I'm test driving it. It's a good thing to test. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. Because I do think the ceiling for this offense is very high because there's a good chance that maybe Michael Pennix does fit in the offense way better than I do. And the pieces around him are good.
Starting point is 00:34:52 And I think the biggest cheat code for any young quarterback is having a reliable run game. that can get you into second and six reliably, which I think he's going to have. From there, it's just, is he good enough? Can he reach, like, a certain bar? We can have the conversation about sealing, but I think this is an offense where if a quarterback reaches a certain bar, that's enough for them to be successful.
Starting point is 00:35:12 We shall say. All right, Deont, your way too early prediction. What do you got? This one's a little bit more specific. I will say that Bijon Robinson joined the club that has only been joined twice since 2000, and that's a running back with more than 900 receiving yards. that was Charlie Garner in Oakland. I think that that was in the John Gruden era.
Starting point is 00:35:30 And then you had obviously Christian McCaffrey. I love to watch Charlie Garner. Just as an older than a kid. Played in Philly for a little while. Yeah. Kind of do it all guys, small guy. Ahead of his time. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:35:42 1,000 percent. Yeah. One thousand percent. So, no, I mean, that's my more team take. I thought my first take was that he was going to join the Roger Craig and Christian McCaffrey Club being the thousand thousand running backs. I don't know if that's going to work out. that way because I still have to see what this passing game looks like in obvious situations.
Starting point is 00:36:00 But I do think that B. John Robinson is going to get that Sequin, Barclay, Derek Henry, type of workload where you're going to get 400 touches because that's the best way to try to keep our offense out of trouble. It's going to be a lot of screens, a lot of design, like swings, a lot of empty stuff to get the ball. A lot of Michael Pennicks his hands quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets over 1,000 yards. But for now, I'll say that he joins Charlie Garner and CMC as a only running back since 2000 with 9. 900 yards receiving. I was just looking up, as you were saying that, you know, back in the day, this is when
Starting point is 00:36:32 you would buy the old fantasy football magazine. Now, I'm not at a really old Charlie Gardner and buying fantasy football magazines, but that was the way what you would do. You would start to get excited in June. The magazines would come out. Of course, now we have the great ringer fantasy guide online that you can check out. But I was just looking up, where is Bijan Robinson going in fantasy drafts? And it looks like he's sort of a top three pick.
Starting point is 00:36:54 He'd have to be a top three pick, right? Yeah. It looks like Sequin or Bejan Robinson. I guess if you're banking on the Sequin injury or just coming off that heavy workload. 2025, the safer bet's probably Bejohn because he's not coming off a Super Bowl run where you get 400 plus touches. Yeah, but then you risk like if Seekwon is awesome again. But you're the bozo, right? I can't believe I didn't draft that guy.
Starting point is 00:37:19 You risk being the bozo if you draft overall. and Sequin gets to Thanksgiving and he's got 1,300 yards rushing all right. Yeah, they're on national TV. He's just breaking off 50-yard runs. You're like, well, I didn't even think that. And you're Joe Shane. You don't want to be Joe Shane. Yeah, yeah, no, you don't.
Starting point is 00:37:37 That is a good sort of football life rule. You don't want to be Joe. I was going to say a life rule. That felt very mean. Life rule, Joe Shane is doing fine. A football life rule, you don't want to be Joseon. All right, Ruiz. What do you got?
Starting point is 00:37:50 Way too early prediction. I think this is the best early down offense in the NFL by ETA success rate, whatever. You're with me a little bit like you know? Yeah, I think things fall apart on third down, which limits the ceiling for the offense. But I do think this could be a good run team. I like the pieces on the offense.
Starting point is 00:38:07 I think Pennix can do well in an early down situation. I think he's going to have more struggles as a dropback passer. But yeah, I see this going well. I see the season working out a lot like it did last season, basically. I think there just hasn't been a lot of changes. in Atlanta. So I think we're going to see it. And maybe they're still in the divisional race in late November, but I think they'll fall off
Starting point is 00:38:27 eventually. There's too many flaws on this team for me to be optimistic about them, even though I am excited about the offense and Bejohn Robinson in particular. Yeah, I mean, success for them is really measured by what do you think of Michael Pennix, Jr. at the end of the season? If their defense
Starting point is 00:38:43 is 32nd, who cares, you know, like all the other stuff is secondary. If it's like, hey, this looks like a pretty interesting quarterback to keep on the roster maybe build around in years ahead. And it's not like you're starting from scratch. Like you said, they have nice pieces around him. If you can now build other areas of the roster, that's how.
Starting point is 00:39:01 And I'm excited to watch him, Michael Pennix, Jr. He pulls off some good throws. It's a lot. They're different quarterbacks, obviously, but there's a lot of, like, Sam Darnel to it where, like, if you keep the pocket clean and give him a clean platform, like, he's going to, wow, rip the throw that you ask him to throw. Yeah. The question is what happens when the pocket, you know, collapses or makes you move.
Starting point is 00:39:19 I think that's when you have your question marks about him. That's why he had to wait to hear his name, despite his production at Washington. The throws are there. The one thing I will say this, this is a bone I have to pick. The one throw that everyone posts, the Michael Pennix,
Starting point is 00:39:33 the sideline throw, I think it was against the Panthers, where he wasn't even aiming at that receiver, and everyone was like, oh my God, he fitted in a tight window. He was thrown to the guy running the outbreaking route. Stop commending him for that throw. It was not a good throw.
Starting point is 00:39:45 I have to say, I'm thrilled to have no idea what you're talking about right now. At all. I mean, at all. It's the same service. Search Michael Pennix on Twitter. No, thank you. Do a video search.
Starting point is 00:39:57 It's the throw that everyone brings up. And it's a sideline throw where it's like a three-level route. There's a guy running like an intermediate sale route. You know what, Sheel? I know what this is. There's a guy running a brawl. This is a Super Bowl 57. This is a Super Bowl 57 take that he's bringing back up now where he was really upset about how much credit the Jalen Hertz got for that sideline throw.
Starting point is 00:40:20 Yeah. That was anti-sideline throws that guys make acrobatic catches on. And then the quarterback gets a credit for it. To be fair to Jalen Hertz, Jalen Hertz actually meant to throw to the guy who caught the pass. The problem with the Jalen Hertz play was he got fooled by the coverage and made a bad decision. But it worked out. Michael Pettig wasn't even aiming for that guy.
Starting point is 00:40:39 And the other thing is like Michael Penning says a lot of other good throws that he put on tape last year. Like let's celebrate those throws that he meant to him. All right. There you go. I love it. Michael Pennix, the clip. I don't know. I'm not going to look it up.
Starting point is 00:40:49 It's okay. We'll revisit in August. All right. Let's take a break. We come back. We got the Panthers and the Saints. The cream of the crop in the NFL. Panthers and Saints will be back. All right. We're back on the Ringer NFL show the Carolina Panthers. Plus 2.35 to make the playoffs. Only teams with worse odds in the entire NFC are the Saints and the Giants.
Starting point is 00:41:14 They're over under for wins is six and a half. Some optimism, although Ruiz. you know, will tell us whether the optimism is warranted. Some optimism around the way Bryce Young finished last season. They drafted at McMillan in the first round. They add some running back depth with Rico Dowdell and drafting Trevor ETN. Reshaped some pieces on defense. You know, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:41:39 I think they were going after Milton Williams. All the reports in Carolina were that they were making an aggressive offer, but they weren't willing to go to where the Patriots went. Maybe that'll end up looking smart. Who knows? But a few different offensive linemen. They draft Nick Squorton there in the second round, the edge rusher. And they sign Travon Merrig, the Raiders safety in free agency.
Starting point is 00:42:02 Also, J.C. Horn, a four-year, $100 million deal, making him the second highest-paid corner in the NFL. But I think if you look at the big moves, it really was drafting Ted McMillan and signing Merrig, the safety. Were there two big moves, Ruiz? how do you assess the Panthers offseason? I'm going to give them a B plus. I really like, I mean, they didn't make enough moves on defense, but I really like their approach in the draft. I like the T draft pick specifically,
Starting point is 00:42:29 because I think it fits what Bryce Young does, and I don't know if you should be necessarily, like, basing your draft picks on him, but I thought they needed a receiver. And I think him and Bryce Young, like his ability to win 50-50 balls on the outside. That's what Bryce did best last year was throwing, giving his guys an opportunity to catch those.
Starting point is 00:42:44 I think that could be a good partnership. And I just think being able to keep this offense, of line together, keep this offense intact, is probably a positive for them. I think their run game was underrated last year, and I think there's a chance that it's very strong this year. And that will make life easier on Bryce Young. The defense is where I can't give them an A.
Starting point is 00:43:02 I can't get too optimistic because this defense on paper looks like it could be the worst in the NFL. And I just don't see how it's materially better than it was last year. Yeah, I think that's why I gave him a C. I kind of looked around and was like, oh, yeah, I like the McMillan pick. I was, I don't know, when I was like,
Starting point is 00:43:18 looking at the depth chart, I was expecting to see a much different team than the one that went five and 12 last year. And I saw some different names, but I wasn't like, ooh, they got better here, here and here. I understand why you give J.C. Horn that extension. Yeah, I mean, I have to point out that he's played 37 games in four seasons and you just gave him $25 million for you. I'm not saying, like, I understand if you feel like he's talented and you feel like he's going to be reliable, then you pay him now. You don't wait until later. But it's also worth pointing out that there is some risk to being that aggressive for a guy who hasn't been able to stay on the field.
Starting point is 00:43:50 So I thought it was okay. That's why it's not a C minus. It's just kind of okay. I will say this about the J.C. Hort thing. Like, I consider that a win as a Panthers fan because usually these guys, they get to their second contract and they go away. They get rid of. Like, that's, it's refreshing.
Starting point is 00:44:06 And they don't play their best year somewhere else. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit for that, but like, I'm giving them credit for it because it's not something we've been able to rely on as Panthers fan. So, yeah. Yeah, I understand where you're coming from, though. And I think there's an alternate universe where maybe they do splash a lot of cash in free agency, because that was a lot of the top going into free agency. It was like, oh, they got money to spend.
Starting point is 00:44:25 And I don't think they did that. I think they resisted that urge, which a lot of teams that saw their second year quarterback, who was drafted first overall, have a promising second half of the year, might have jumped at the opportunity and be like, we've got to capitalize that's build up for Bryce and make sure that he has everything he needs to be great next year. And they kind of handicapped themselves going forward. and I don't think Carolina did that. I think this is a smart, measured approach
Starting point is 00:44:48 to how they're building up the roster. Yeah. Deontae, what did you think for the Panthers offseason? I gave them a C plus. I felt short of B of anything like a B or an A. Like Stephen was saying, there's not high impact. I'm not. I'm not. I will say, I mean, but for me,
Starting point is 00:45:04 I mean, a lot of myself is kind of falling in this range of C, C minus. I gave them a C plus, and I think that I may be more bullish than the grade suggests because I'm always a fan of an organization, that takes big problems and find simple solutions. One of their issues defensively is that they were too small, too light, too weak up front. So you go and you bring in a Patrick Jones, 260-pound edge rusher, Tresher, Treshaun, 280-pound guy that you can move around.
Starting point is 00:45:30 Bobby Brown is 330 pounds. You're bringing Chavon Merrick, who's a bigger safety. He's not Cam Chancellor, but he's a bigger safety. And then in drafting, Nick Scowardon, you know, you get another guy who's going to give you a little bit of size on the edge. And even Princeley, who's a little bit more kind of like you're kind of mix it up, speed guy who's going to try to be more finesse. He's over 240 pounds.
Starting point is 00:45:51 So they're not going to be small up front. And I think that that's the right way to approach your defensive front seven. If you can't go get high impact guys, at least don't have guys that are clearly not fit to be setting edges or take on double teams. And you know you're going to get a lot of downhill run in this division. And then if Tesoroa-Rae McMillan can give you anything early as a receiver, there is an opportunity now for Bryce Young to be more effective as a passer. I think that for as warm as the feelings were down the back half, and rightfully so,
Starting point is 00:46:20 he still had a sub 40% success rate as a passer last year. Some of that is biased by just like rough start to the year, took a while to kind of get him back in the mix. And then once he was there, you started to see a little bit more flashes of what he was at Alabama. But I think giving him a true number one or potential number one receiver will help him in that regard. and I think if this run game continues to grow now, like Stephen has been saying, you've given him a backstop
Starting point is 00:46:45 where he does not have to be a hero, you don't have to stick him in these obvious passing situations in the gun, where you know teams are going to be bearing down on them in the pocket. And if you can just get him more clean pockets, I think that you'll continue to see that progression. So C plus because it's not enough here to really wow me, but I think they handled the offseason exactly how you would want Dan Morgan in this front office to do so.
Starting point is 00:47:06 All right, better or worse than last year, five and 12 last year. Bryce Young started 12 games. They were four and eight in those games. Andy Dalton started five games. They were one and four. In those games, they were four and three in one score games. One of the most injured teams in the NFL, third worst injury luck in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:47:27 And one other thing, again, NFC South, face the fifth easiest schedule. When you get to face the other teams in the division, two times each, it leads to a pretty easy schedule here. So Ruiz, better or worse than last year and how much different do you expect them to look? I think they're better than last year, like in the aggregate, but I think they're essentially the same team they were down the stretch of last year in the second half, where they were a little bit more feisty, but you could see the clear things holding them back, whether it's the defense, whether it's when the run game isn't working, how the passing game looks off of that.
Starting point is 00:48:00 Like, I think that was one of the more underrated things about Bryce's turnaround was the run game was just really good. And they didn't have to use them as a dropback passer as much. and they got to hide his warts a little more. But I think those warts are still there, and I think the optimism, it's weird to talk about a first overall pick like this this soon into his career. Like, the bar for him is in hell.
Starting point is 00:48:22 So anytime he clears it, it's like, oh, he's really better than he's not. Like, if you just look at his stats, and Sheila, you'll appreciate this is your favorite stat, success rate. 59 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round since I think it's 2000. I think that's what True Media's error goes back to you.
Starting point is 00:48:41 He is 53rd in successory after two years. The names around him, Kyle Bowler, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Cade McNaught, Alex Smith, who is probably the best case scenario, Zach Wilson, Blaine Gabbard, Josh Allen, Achilles Smith, that's the end of the list. Like, in the sample size, the two-year sample size, he's been one of the worst first-round picks we've ever seen.
Starting point is 00:49:01 And I do think he showed improvement, but I thought he got back to his pre-drafts, scouting report where you still have those same concerns about his size, the ceiling, what his elite trade is. I do think he beat the, this guy can't play in the league allegations, which is, I guess a win for Carolina, but I can't be optimistic about the first overall pick when I can, I can talk about those numbers in terms of like who's, who's his company around it.
Starting point is 00:49:26 It's just not good. Like, I don't know how to be optimistic about that. And then the tape, like, I get that you could put together a highlight reel, a big time throws and you can cite PFF stats. But a lot of these throws are, are deep throws on the perimeter, which we know are the most volatile plays in football. And then you're talking about a small
Starting point is 00:49:45 sample size. You're talking about like a nine-week sample size. This is a tweet from 2003. And this probably sounds like what a lot of people are saying about Bryce Young right now. A tweet from 2003? Just come with me on this journey. From week 12 to week 18, quarterback X was first in PFF passing grade,
Starting point is 00:50:02 fourth and big time throw rate, first in PFF's deep passing grade. seventh in EPA per play. Do you know what that quarterback was? It was Kenny Pickett. People were making the same arguments in year two about Kenny Pickett that they're making about Bryce Young. And I think the analysis isn't that different.
Starting point is 00:50:16 The guy is not comfortable in a tight pocket. He can maybe make some throws to the perimeter. But outside of that, how do you build an offense with a guy who has to throw blind over the middle of the field? And when you watch Bryce Young's tape, there are a lot of blind throws over the middle of the field where he's throwing wide receivers into hits. So that's why I have paused with all this Bryce Young Opt.
Starting point is 00:50:35 Because there's not a lot of merit to it. I don't know what like small sample size theater. Sure. Yeah, you can make the case. But when you step back and look at the aggregate of his performance, it's very depressing. You had me on a journey there, 2003. And then Kenny Pickett, and I'm like, wait, all right, 2023. I'm just preemptively arguing against all the arguments that are going to come against
Starting point is 00:50:55 because I know people are going to be like, week nine on, you know, you had a lot of big time throws. Well, let's stick with because I do think the success rate thing is pretty interesting. So for those who are who I think most of you, if you listen to the show, you know what we're talking about. But success rate just measures how often it's a positive play for the offense. So it's like a 10-yard completion is treated the same as a 50-yard completion. So you don't get credit for the explosives. And if you have a few turnovers, that's not going to kill you. That's treated the same as incompletions.
Starting point is 00:51:26 Whereas the other one, you'll remember, you'll probably hear a lot as EPA per play. And so EPA per play, Bryce Young, in his last 10. starts was solid. It would have ranked as like the 15th best starter. What about 11 starts? What about 12? Like, why 10? Why 10 starts?
Starting point is 00:51:43 Well, if you make the argument that he was a mess in the beginning of the season, he needed some time off. He comes back and when he comes back, that's a kind of a different run that we're talking about. Then you could say, you know, he performed like the 15th best quarterback. However, to Ruiz's point, you really got to be careful with that. I mean, it's a small sample and the success. I was even just doing it game by game because I wanted to see.
Starting point is 00:52:07 I didn't want, because when the samples that small, one amazing game can really, statistically can really be an outlier. Only two games all last year was his success rate above league average, meaning they were producing a positive play when he dropped back to pass more than just the league average. That only happened twice in a game last year, week 14 and week 18. So a lot of it is already had 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, so he didn't have the, you He didn't have the turnovers.
Starting point is 00:52:36 Maybe he connected on some plays downfield. But there definitely is some noise there to Ruiz's point that, like, slow down some of the, if you dig a little deeper, it probably wasn't. And I'm someone who like, I like Bryce Young more than Ruiz. I hope he plays well. I want him to play well. I liked him coming out of college. But as someone who likes him and is rooting for him, I also will point out that Ruiz is right.
Starting point is 00:52:59 There is some noise there with the numbers for sure. He's fint and fourth in EPA for drop back over that same. the two-year same aside. Oh, yeah. The whole career is, yeah, there's no other way to frame it other than one of the worst starting quarterbacks. Starts to a career, yeah. Yeah, we've seen.
Starting point is 00:53:15 But that's why the discussion is so difficult with him because I feel like he's being judged on the bar that we said after he got benched, when really the bar should be, this is a first overall pick. Like, if you want to build a franchise around this guy, you can't be excited that he's the 20th best quarterback in the NFL in year three. Like, that's tough for me as a fan to be excited, especially in a league where I have to beat Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert. The list goes on and on with these quarterbacks. And I just don't know if he can ever get to that point.
Starting point is 00:53:47 Yeah, the context is important, like you're saying. And it's different if you're a fan of the Panthers verse just looking at it. Because, yeah, I mean, after those first three games, it was like, is he ever going to be a starter in the NFL again? So now, and I'm not saying everybody should believe this, but if you believe, hey, he could be the, 15th best starter for an entire season. That's different than it was. But you're right. If you would have said that when you're drafting the guy first overall,
Starting point is 00:54:12 you would have been like, what? He can be the 15th best starter. Who cares? That's not why we're drafting Bryce Young. So yeah, the context is very important with him. Deonté, when you look at the team overall, in addition to Bryce Young, better or worse than last year? I think it's better and it's funny.
Starting point is 00:54:29 The way you framed it kind of changed the way I was going to explain. I was going to say, better once you remove. If you can look at this the way, I think that Dan Morgan and the Panthers should be looking at this. Whatever is happening with this franchise is totally independent to Bryce Young.
Starting point is 00:54:44 That's kind of like its own project to try to get him to passable level quarterback. And if that happens, I don't want to call it a miracle, right? I don't want to be unfair to the guy, but just based on the statistics, based on the production,
Starting point is 00:54:55 that's about as long of odds as the Panthers becoming a playoff team in one off season, right? Like, if not longer odds. But I do think, like I said, they addressed some of the things that they needed to do outside of the quarterback position. You bring in a guy that can lead your wide receiver room. You continue to fortify this running back room. I really wanted Jonathan Taylor, I think, who was a – or Jonathan Brooks, I should say, the running back from Texas to be a guy for them.
Starting point is 00:55:21 I think that his recovery process is really slow. They've had all these different fits and starts. So it is kind of concerning to see that they take in Trevor 18, RICO Dattle. So maybe that's not going to work out. but I think that in making those moves now, you really have a balanced backfield around Chuba Hubbard now. And this offensive line looked really good. Obviously, you know, we talked about this
Starting point is 00:55:40 after the disaster of a win that Philadelphia had over Carolina where they were really able to kind of control the line of scrimmage in the first half, even going into the third quarter, being able to run the ball on early downs and keep their quarterback out of trouble. If they were able to continue to build upon that, this can at least look like a passable NFL offense. And then to me defensively,
Starting point is 00:56:01 I just need to see a pulse, right? Like, I don't want to put too much on Derek Brown, who has been a revelation for me in terms of a player because I really didn't like him coming out of Auburn. And early in his career, he kind of struggled a bit. He wasn't a complete player. He looks much closer to being a complete player now, and they didn't have them for much of last year because he got hurt.
Starting point is 00:56:19 So if this kind of reconfigured defensive front seven looks a little bit better around him, maybe they do have a pulse. The only issue there to me is that they've only really got a couple starters that are older than 28. they are impossibly young on defense. And in a lot of ways, maybe you turn out to be like what the Rams were over the last two years where these young guys, you throw a bunch of snaps at them, and maybe two of them pop.
Starting point is 00:56:43 And all they needed was exposure to kind of speed up their development process. But that could also mean that you've got a lot of 22, 23, 24-year-old guys whose heads are spinning. It's a Giro Eever-O, you know, so you're going to get an aggressive defense that's really not going to take a lot off of your plate at any level. of the defense. So these guys are going to be asked to step up big time and maybe that does not go so well. So I'll say better in the aggregate, but there are a lot of like critical mass points for this team where you could easily look up and see that they're just as bad by midseason as they were last year. Yeah, the defensive line investment has to pay off for that to happen, I think. If the defensive line investment in the offseason, it wasn't like sizable at all and
Starting point is 00:57:23 they're getting Derek Brown back, but like Tashon Warden, Bobby Brown, if these guys can play and be serviceable and I think get them to third and more often than they were last year, because this was the worst run defense on early downs based on success rate and EPA. So basically, you were given to putting teams in second and advantageous reliably, which is going to make your past defense a lot worse than it actually is. But you look at the depth started in the past defense's the secondary, and you're kind of concerned about it.
Starting point is 00:57:50 So, yeah, I don't know what this defense looks like, but I don't think it looks good. I can't envision a scenario where it's a top 20 defense, and I think that's where they have to get. I do think the offense, even in spite of my Bryce Young's skepticism, I do think Bryce has gotten to a point where he could play well in a well-designed offense. And we saw it with the run game, the run game could be productive. And what can you do off of that? Last year, I don't think he necessarily took advantage of how good the run game was. Like you look at his early down pass splits and they weren't great.
Starting point is 00:58:20 If they could figure out a way to carve out an early down pass game that allows Bryce Young to be successful, then I think there's a decent chance. like a fringe top 10 offense at the end of the year. If 10 is good if he is what I think he's going to be. Yeah, I have him as better. You had a wide receiver to that group. That's got to help the passing offense. And then we can't overstate, to your guy's point,
Starting point is 00:58:45 just how bad the defense was last year. I mean, I was looking up just EPA per drive the last three seasons. This was the worst defense in the NFL, any one season over the last three years. So they were crushed by injuries, the Derek Brown injury, and I look at the depth chart, I'm with you guys. I'm not like, oh, they solved their problems, but it's just like, is there a floor of a little bit of more competency here with this defense?
Starting point is 00:59:09 It almost cannot be worse than it was last year. So I've got better, but not by much. Way too early prediction. Ruiz, was that your way too early prediction? That either they're inching towards top 10 or you got something else. No, just because I think it's going to be hard for them to find that early down passing game. Okay. If Bryce can take a step forward in Quick Game specifically,
Starting point is 00:59:29 then I think you find it and then you have it. Then you have another option instead of just running into heavy boxes. But it's tough with him just because of the physical limitations. I think Everero ends up, it doesn't last the year. That's my way too early prediction. I think it's been a while since he's been up, since he's looked apart of a promising defensive coordinator. I feel like he's still living off that first half in his first season with the Broncos.
Starting point is 00:59:51 And since then, it's been a low-key disaster. like that was not a well-coordinated defense. And it hasn't been since he's been there. He was held over from the previous staff, the Frank Reichstag. And I mean, it's hard to justify at this point, in my opinion.
Starting point is 01:00:08 Deonté Agiro Everro in that scenario, Eagles consultant for the playoffs, potentially, under his boy, Vigangio, you know? Look, I mean, if you want to rehab the image a little bit, show up.
Starting point is 01:00:19 That's a good place to go. You're able to stop the run for some turnovers. Hey, man, I just came in to do much. couple ideas in the mix. You know, Vick so co-signs me. Don't you want to hire me again? Get someone to write the feature in February, you know, how Agiro Evaro spent his last seven weeks of the year and you get some Fangio quotes in there. And you're in Philadelphia, so you know you're going to be in a big market.
Starting point is 01:00:40 You're going to get coverage if you want your name out there. Yeah. I should have been the prediction. That's a way better prediction, that's a way better prediction, that's okay. We built on it. All right, Deonté, what do you got? Way too early prediction for the Panthers. This seems kind of lofty because you can just see, I can 1,000% see a scenario where this goes in the exact opposite direction, and this dude is just getting dunked on every Monday after a rough Sunday's performance. But I think the Tessoroa McMillan can get over 1,000 yards receiving,
Starting point is 01:01:08 because the way that Bryce Young has been successful, has been so much of just like, given his wide receivers a chance out on the perimeter. And I will say for all the flaws that are clearly, we're clearly there coming out of Arizona for a T-MAC in terms of dealing with press, dealing with more physical guys at the, you know, at the release point. He can win at the top of the route. I think that he knows how to use his body.
Starting point is 01:01:29 You kind of see that volleyball, kind of basketball type of frame, working out for him late in the route. So maybe that's how he's able to win. But I do think you're going to get a lot of fade opportunities. You're going to get a lot of blitzes. I mean, teams have just been blitzing the hell out of Carolina over the last two years with Bryce Young at quarterback. So there are going to be a lot of one-on-one chances for him out there.
Starting point is 01:01:48 So Young can just catch a snap and just let it fly out there. I can see them getting some cheap explosive plays from Team Mac going over the top. I think he's going to be a big-time target threat in the red zone because they really don't have 20 other guys that can separate or go win in tight coverage in those situations either. So I would say 1,000 yards. I wouldn't bank on a bunch of touchdowns because he's the only guy that defenses have to pay attention to out on the perimeter, but I do think he's going to get a large target share
Starting point is 01:02:15 and he'll end up being one of the higher-performing rookies that we've had over the last half decade or so. All right. I'm going to go, Bryce Young. Ruiz is going to make fun of me because of the low bar here. But finishes better than league average. Let's get nerdy. An EPA per pass play.
Starting point is 01:02:33 Take your success rate and stuff it. We're doing EPA per pass play for this. I wonder why. Just hit Ted McMillan on some deep passes down the sideline. Don't worry, Bryce. I'll give you credit. Don't turn the football over. And let's just sneak up there to number 15.
Starting point is 01:02:50 in EPA. What a prediction. I don't think this one's going to make social. Bryce Young EPA for best play. The average league. Okay, let's ask this question because it is year three. So next year would be contract talk time. It would be fifth year option time.
Starting point is 01:03:04 Let's say he is 16th in EPA for dropback. What the hell does that contract? You can't pick it up. You can't pick up the fifth year option, I don't think. What do you do? No, look at what Sam Darno just got for competent quarterback play. I think the, The sample side, there's just going to be so many sample size issues there for me.
Starting point is 01:03:24 Like, at least for me, if I'm Dan Morgan, there's no way I am extending my window of being beholden to anything Bryce Young after these first war guaranteed years. Yeah. That's not to say that I can't bring them back at all. Like, maybe you work out a cheap, prove it deal. If Jordan, again, can't find another guy. That's what Jordan Love got in Green Bang. Like, yeah, like, I just can't see it. I feel like, yeah, I don't see the long.
Starting point is 01:03:50 term commitment. I don't know how you reasonably make a long-term commitment. Just because what Deontes laying out, he didn't, Dan Morgan didn't draft him. And I, I couldn't imagine, like, tying my career to Bryce Young and how he develops with a guy that I didn't even draft. And you're, like, you are essentially tying yourself to him by giving him a contract. Like, you might as well have been the guy that traded the pick for him. So, yeah, that's a tough one. I don't know what I would do if I was done. I guess it depends on how it looks. To me, if I'm Dan Morgan, I do want to give him a shot to prove himself, but as much as possible, I want to make sure that we create some distance. Because the thing that I can't have is David Tepperfall in love with this guy because he wins a couple games at home.
Starting point is 01:04:32 Yeah. I need to be planting the seeds as much as possible. Like, hey, first overall, we trade it to go get them. You got to give him a spare shake. But anytime you get me behind closed doors, I am letting a media member know. I am letting ownership know. Hey, we've got an opportunity to get real bad, real quick. Let's see if we can just shuffle them out.
Starting point is 01:04:52 Maybe he has a good year and you're able to trade them. We talked about that at the end of the season in 2024. Is that, hey, if you maybe feel like you can position yourself to go take a chance at quarterback, maybe you move on from Bryce Young, get a mid-round pick, and you're able to kind of put together a trade package that way, or you can recoup some draft capital if you decide to do so in terms of making an aggressive move-up. But, yeah, if I'm Dan Morgan, man, this is just a walk to the end. And as soon as we get to the end of this season, I'm hitting the athletic.
Starting point is 01:05:19 I'm in CBS Sports. I'm hitting ESPN. Everybody's going to know how much we love this quarterback class. How long we've been scouting Garrett Nussmeyer, how long we've been scouting Lenora Sellers, who's right down the road at the University of South Carolina, and we're ready to take a chance I find it a new QB1 for this franchise.
Starting point is 01:05:37 So he's under contract through 2026. So the fifth year option would be for 2027. I don't know. I think you guys might be, underrating what teams do to get competent quarterback play. I think if he's the 15th best quarterback, and it's just one year and you're just saying, sign me up for 2027, that's not a big,
Starting point is 01:06:00 you know, I don't know what that number is, to be honest, but whatever that number is, you're signing up for one more year, for him to get an actual long-term, legit deal. I mean, yeah, that would be malpractice. He would have to be like one of the stories of the NFL this year. I mean, top 10 quarterback, they're making the playoffs.
Starting point is 01:06:15 You feel great about it. It's almost hard to even envision that scenario. happening. But I think fifth year option, that's a great question. Yeah, what's the bar he has to clear for them to pick up the fifth year option? I think it's maybe a little bit lower than you guys do. I think they might get creative with it like the Packers did, although that was a different situation. They just really hadn't seen Jordan Love play football like live reps and games. But yeah, I could see them getting creative and maybe like giving him a tacking on a fifth year to the contract. That's not the fifth year option. And,
Starting point is 01:06:48 Maybe it's a team option where they can move on still. Yes, I would say that. Incentives or something. Yeah. I think that's more likely. But I agree with Deonté. You can't fall in love with him clearing a load. The bar has to be high for him.
Starting point is 01:07:00 He's the first overall. I have to keep repeating this. He's the first overall pick. And you gave up future draft capital to acquire the guy. This was not just a regular pick. You mortgaged a lot to go make this happen. Yeah. Which if ownership does get involved, they don't want that to look
Starting point is 01:07:18 like a stupid decision. It might be incentivized to build them up even a little bit more. Let's see. Bryce Young, don't want to. I haven't given up on you. What Ruiz says is fair. Let's see what it looks like here for a full season.
Starting point is 01:07:32 You got another wide receiver in there. You return your offensive line. Let's see what it looks like here with Dave Canales. All right. We end with the New Orleans Saints. Plus 1,100 to Whitman. If you're in the NFC South and your eyes to win the division or plus 1100, that is not good.
Starting point is 01:07:49 Plus 710 to make the playoffs. The only teams in the NFL with worse odds to make the playoffs are the Browns and the Giants. They're over under for wins is five and a half. I'm going to surprise you guys by grading their offseason here. I'm going to give them a B because Derek Carr just, I mean, get out of jail free card by retiring there. Unbelievable. You know, if that doesn't happen, they're paying him whether he plays or he doesn't play. So that in and of itself, to me, gives them a B.
Starting point is 01:08:21 Now, what else did they do? They fired Dennis Allen. They replaced him with Kellyn Moore. They draft Tyler Shug in the second round, the quarterback. They draft Kelvin Banks, the offensive lineman in the first round. Defensively, add Justin Reed, make some other moves with veterans there as well. But really, this comes down to, I guess, Kellyn Moore, Tyler Shug, and then see what you're doing at quarterback maybe. after the season. But again, just for Derek Carr retiring and not saying, nope, I'm not retiring.
Starting point is 01:08:53 You're paying me. Like, to be honest, that's probably what I would have done. So, you know, shout out to, I know he's made a lot of money, but still, Derek Carr leaving some of that money on the table, the Saints get a B for me. Deante, what do you got for the New Orleans Saints? Truthfully, they'll never get a C for as long as Mickey Ruma's to still the GM here because the track record is so rough. The same every offseason, yeah. It's a D plus. It's a D plus for me. The only move that I really liked was taking a chance on Kelvin Banks Jr. being able to fill in that left tackle. And I think that to me, this is more, again, you're going to be banking a lot more on what's happening in-house than what you were going to do in terms of acquisitions this offseason. You're banking on Eric McCoy and Caesar Ruiz staying healthy for a season and giving you that into your offensive line that allows you to run the ball in the way they were able to do in the first couple weeks of the season.
Starting point is 01:09:44 you're banking on outside of that, you're really banking on Tyler Shuck being something. And I can't give it more than a D plus at the end of the day because of how I feel about Kevin Moore. And you guys know this based on how we were talking about the Eagles offense last season. And a lot of that still falls upon the shoulders of Jalen Hertz and the decisions that he was and was not making in the pocket. But you look at the design of the offense.
Starting point is 01:10:07 It wasn't inspiring then. It was not inspiring with Justin Herbert. It was not inspiring the last year with Dak Prescott. I don't know if I trust him with the quarterback that's not as physically gifted as any of the three guys that I just mentioned, in my opinion, even though Shuck can move a little bit when he's healthy. You're talking about a guy that's older, more injured. So there's a lot of question marks there. And I love Brandon Saley when I loved him in 2020. But man, the defenses since then have not been a whole lot of fun to watch.
Starting point is 01:10:36 They have been in between worlds schematically and philosophically, this rigid adherence to never giving up experience. explosive plays have led to them being one of the least efficient defenses when Brandon Staley's calling it on a play-by-play basis. And you look at all the things that were in trouble for them with Dennis Allen, who is aggressive, who was really good at putting together week-by-week game plans for offenses. And this team has continued to deal with the Trishin up front. Unless he gets the absolute best out of Chase Young and the absolute best out of Justin Reed, what else is happening with this defense that's going to inspire a bunch of confidence,
Starting point is 01:11:11 both upfront and on the back end. So a lot of questions, way more questions and answers for me. And this is definitely going to be a D plus off season when I'll put in the final grade. I don't know. How did I give them a B, Ruiz? That was ridiculous. What am I doing here? You gave him way too much credit for the Derek Carthage.
Starting point is 01:11:27 Yeah, I got way too soft there. Maybe the coffee was wearing off at that point when I was doing my notes. I'm changing it right now. I'll give you a C maybe just for the Derek Car thing. That can't be above average. What's wrong with me? All right, Ruiz. And then we got to be consistent.
Starting point is 01:11:41 We gave Detroit, or we didn't take points away from Detroit because they lost their offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, and they couldn't control that. The Saints couldn't control their car retiring. Yeah, that's true. I don't know. I'm going to give him a gift. Yeah, that was a gift for that. So I'm going to give him a C minus just because I don't know.
Starting point is 01:11:57 Like, who cares? Like, that's the thing. Yeah. And it's not the Saints fault. It's the GM's fault with how he was running the team for the past decade or whatever, past half decade, whatever time frame you want to look at. I just don't know what they could have done better. so that's why I'm going to give him a C-C-minus.
Starting point is 01:12:13 But I think you guys haven't mentioned Spencer Rattler, who I think is going to play more quarterback than Tyler Shuck this year. So we'll see what happens there. Yeah, I just think he's going to be further ahead in terms of knowing the offense. I guess not because they're both in the first year. But I just think he's a better quarterback. I thought he was a better prospect of me now, but we'll see what happens. I do think Chuck is a little underrated physical tools.
Starting point is 01:12:32 I would say he might be a better thrower of the football that Jayland Hertz is, like his arm. There's an argument for that. More armed talent. Yeah, not a great thing in a vacuum. but like yeah the guy can throw like 70 yards on the run so Tyler Shug Spencer Rattler and Jay Kainer that's your quarterback's bad for
Starting point is 01:12:50 It's nasty there's something there with Rattler I'm not giving up on Rattler I'm not selling my stock in the rat man Okay the rat man I like it better or worse than last year 5 and 12 last year Derek Carr started 10 games Spencer Rattler started six games jay Kainer started one game don't one game don't ask me what happened in that game, I couldn't tell you. They were two and five in one score games.
Starting point is 01:13:14 They were very injured. 29th in adjusted games loss. So the fourth most injured team in the NFL. And again, repeating myself, the third easiest schedule in the NFL this year, Deonté, better or worse than the five and 12 team from last year? I think they're worse, honestly. I think they're worse. Even for all of the frustrations that Derek Carr gives you at quarterback, he certainly,
Starting point is 01:13:39 I think he would be an easier bet to be competent right out the gate than banking on Spencer Rattler taking a step forward in that regard to Tyler Shuck being able to step right into the league and prove that he's that. I think that they're all in a lot of ways of like the opposite of the bucks, right? At least the things I give the butts credit for, they're great at getting the players that they acquire the players, they draft the players that they identify a free agency to an above average level. They just don't identify stars.
Starting point is 01:14:05 The Saints can kind of find star level potential. like Chris Olavay, you know, when you set the health aside and you look at the explosive production, you look at what he's been able to do for them as a wide receiver, the star potential is there. Rashid Chaheed, when he's on the field, the speed is obviously potentially game-breaking. They're really good at identifying stuff like that. They've just been awful basically since that 2018 draft or that 2017 draft of getting players from mediocre to good, good to great, great to elite.
Starting point is 01:14:36 They have not done a good job at developing the people they've done. brought into this building over the last decade or so outside of that draft class. And you look at this depth chart and it is just like a long list of failures in that regard. And the reasons why they've had to bring in veterans or because the guys that they do find and have had star potential, they have not retained for multiple contracts, basically outside of DeMario Davis. So I don't know how they're going to get better. Again, maybe Chase Young is able to be productive again.
Starting point is 01:15:03 But even in that, that was more so him being a B minus B level edge. than him being a true like blue chip pro bowl all pro level player i don't see any of that potential coming forth from the rest of the guys they brought in even though i like just in rita kansas city i think that the infrastructure is going to be worse here i think he's going to be asked to do a whole lot more not that he's incapable but just that he's going to have to paper over a lot more issues than necessarily being used in ways that make him the best version of himself i don't see i don't see positive progression here you've got alvin cameron the backfield.
Starting point is 01:15:39 Maybe you get a good start to the year the way you had in 2024, but that's an aging guy. And you saw as the season went on and other pieces fell off and they were really leaning upon him. His body was not able to hold up. So I'm feeling really, really pessimistic. Maybe the most pessimistic of any team that we've covered so far in the preview process. Yeah. I've got worse too.
Starting point is 01:15:59 I'm with you. Most likely scenarios that their quarterback play is worse this year. I don't, I need to see it to believe it, that Kellyn Moore is going to get something out of this group that isn't there when you just look at the pieces on offense specifically at quarterback and some of the other question marks. And then defensively, I don't think it's a, I don't think it's a great group. It's not the most talented
Starting point is 01:16:21 group. Now, maybe Brandon Staley has a great this would be what, a third chapter. I was going to say second chapter. Maybe he's got a great third chapter. Fourth. What did I meant? What was the third chapter? Rams, Chargers, 49ers last year in Saints. Okay. I don't know what he was doing. I'm going to give a little. I'm going to give a Mulligan in San Francisco because I don't know exactly how much control he had over the process there. But maybe, yeah, I don't know.
Starting point is 01:16:46 Okay. So hard to have to have to. But I will say, Sheel, I think you made a really important point about this staff. And that's that with both Moore and with Staley, we don't actually have any evidence of them being coordinators that get more out of less. No. Staley was in L.A. when they had all the guys. But he didn't get more out of that defense than.
Starting point is 01:17:08 Rayne Morris got with the same group the next year. I don't know if I... They were number one in every... Like every statistical category in 2020. But before he got there, they were pretty good with Wade Phillips. They were good. They fell off. They fell out at the end.
Starting point is 01:17:21 It was a one year, though. Right? One year... That's what we're doing. You're talking about a one year... You're talking about a one-year sample. And again, I do think that there were some very specific circumstances with the depth of that defensive backfield in L.A.
Starting point is 01:17:34 They did just kind of start losing pieces. John Johnson was gone after Staley left. if I remember right. So there were some pieces that were there with Staley that weren't there with Morris. And I think that was more, you look at all the places he's been, he basically had the best offensive infrastructure that DAC has had in Dallas. That was when he was called a place. You're playing with the Monstars in Philadelphia.
Starting point is 01:17:54 So it's not like you had the highest bar to clear there. And he didn't put up the most productive offense that they've had in that time. And the most productive offense that they had in 2022 did not have Seekoine Barkley. So, you know, you're not talking about a guy that is. necessarily maximize what he's been around. The same exists for Staley. So, yeah, there are a lot of questions about what they're going to be in a position where the only way this is viable at all is if you were able to kind of, you know,
Starting point is 01:18:19 turn chicken to make chicken salad out of chicken, you know what? So the only thing I'll say about at all on Staley, and I can say this because I am an old guy who looks old is you look at, I was looking at their coaching staff and seeing the headshots, man, my guys got the Obama, you know, entering office and leaving office. going there. Man, yeah, the life in the NFL, the hours, the lack of sleep, who knows. Now I look back and I'm like, you shouldn't have been making fun of him for doing the yoga stretches on the field.
Starting point is 01:18:50 I mean, he, listen, he was trying to get ahead of it. Yeah, we're trying to get ahead of it. So leave my man alone in terms of doing that this year. All right, Ruiz, better or worse, the Saints this year? What do you got? I think they're slightly better. And by better, I mean six wins instead of five wins. I think they were probably better than the five.
Starting point is 01:19:07 wins they had last year, like point differential-wise, they were minus 60. Carolina was minus 193, and they finished with the same record. But I will say that was, a lot of that was patted by those first two weeks. You remember those first two weeks? I know every same fan wants to go back to those first two weeks. Feverdream. Yeah. And everyone else saw that it was going to come crashing down, and it did the next week.
Starting point is 01:19:27 But I do, I'm a little more optimistic about the offense, just because I think this is, I do think the wide receivers and the skill group, there's like some. real star power in the skill group. If Alvin Camara can replicate what he did in early 2024, and Alave can stay healthy, he could stay healthy. Like, there are some good pieces here. It's a lot of conditions, man. It's a lot of conditions.
Starting point is 01:19:50 But the bar is really low. They finished 25th last year in offensive D.V. Our offensive DPA. So I just think they're a little improved on offense. And I don't know, the defense wasn't good last year. I think it was good for the most part throughout Dennis Allen's tenure there. But it wasn't good last year. So I think that probably stays stagnant.
Starting point is 01:20:06 So I think they're around what they were last year with maybe a little better, a better schedule and some more luck. All right. I've got my way too early prediction. I disagree. I think they're going to stink. I got them with a top three pick in next year's draft. I think I already gave the Giants Arch Manning in this exercise. I think I gave the Browns, Nussmeyer.
Starting point is 01:20:26 So I don't know who that leaves the Saints with in that Kellynmore offense, but whichever quarterback they like the most after that, I think. You're out on show. He's second, second. Well, he hasn't played. That's kind of mean. Well, yeah, he's got to show something right away, I guess, at his age. You know, you can't be waiting three years for this. But, yeah, I think they're going to be drafting a quarterback next year and picking in the top three.
Starting point is 01:20:52 So that's my way too early prediction. Deontay, what do you got? So I'll actually kind of borrow off of yours and make the slight variation off of it. I think we get the first OCQB father-son combo after the 2026 draft. I think that I think the Nussmire will stick around. I think that they'll be drafting in the top three and they end up bringing in, they end up bringing in Garrett Nussmeyer
Starting point is 01:21:13 and you get that father-son duo there. And then after that, I can't imagine anybody there I'll be coaching a whole lot longer because it's probably going to be after an awful season. But I don't think that, I don't think Mickey Loomis is helped by firing guys early. So I expect these guys to at least get a two-year window to try to get this thing right.
Starting point is 01:21:30 There you go. Doug Nussmeyer went with Kellyn Moore from Philadelphia to New Orleans, and watch his son play in Baton Rouge this year. And like Deante said, maybe he'll just be coaching him next year. Who knows? All right, Ruiz, way too early prediction. This has to be Spencer Rattler.
Starting point is 01:21:46 It is. You knew where I was going. Spencer Rattler, 26, starting QB. They don't go with Nussmeyer. They're not driving the top team. They're not taking the quarterback. To tough pause for Tyler Shug there, you know? I don't even hate Tyler Shugge.
Starting point is 01:21:59 I liked watching him play. I just don't think, I don't know. I just don't think he has it in the football. pocket. I think there's a lot of them. Unmoved. Derek Carr situation where the tighter of the pocket, the more shakier he looks. But the guy can't throw a beautiful ball and you can throw
Starting point is 01:22:13 on the run, which I think will help in this style of offense. But, Radler, there's just something to Radler that I'm excited about. Okay. You can't give up. That's good. You know, sometimes we have our guys. We all got our things. Everybody has their things. Okay. Yeah. No apologies necessary here.
Starting point is 01:22:29 All right. I mean, I just pick the Falcons to win the division. You don't have to apologize to me. All right. That's the NFC South. That concludes our division by division. Offseason previews. Look-aheads. Way too early predictions.
Starting point is 01:22:44 If you've missed any of them, they're all in the feed. Great way to get ready for the upcoming season a little bit early, you know, before training camp start a good review of where each team is, what the expectations are, what the big storylines are. So check all those out. Thank you to Deonté Lee and Stephen Ruiz. Thank you to Christopher. Sutton for producing, Kiera Givens on social, and additional production supervision by Connor
Starting point is 01:23:11 Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. I'm Chil Kapadia. We will talk to you next time on the Ringer NFL shop. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Helpshelp.com. Call 1-888-789-77-7-7-7 or visit CCC.C. pg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit MD gamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline, ma.org or call 800-32750-50 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 18778 Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.