The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Awards Predictions for the 2024-25 Season

Episode Date: August 30, 2024

Sheil, Steven, and Diante get together to share, analyze, and debate their picks to win each of the major individual awards at the end of the upcoming NFL season. Offensive Rookie of the Year (2:00) Defensive Rookie of the Year (11:43) Offensive Player of the Year (25:03) Defensive Player of the Year (42:19) Coach of the Year (55:30) MVP (1:04:52) The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia, Steven Ruiz, and Diante Lee Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Danny Haif. It's here to remind you that it's never too early to start thinking about football. Join me with Danny Kelly and Craig Korbeck on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show all offseason. As we dive into the biggest news and topics are in the 2024 NFL season. Also, we probably get into really stupid arguments too. That's the Ringer Fantasy football show on Spotify. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show, Shield Capati here with my friend Stephen Ruiz and Deonté Lee. We've gone on record with so much. Playoff picks, Super Bowl picks.

What else could there be? Just let the games get here. But no, we have not done a full awards show. Deante, Nora, and I, we did some MVP talk in an episode a few weeks ago. But now we're doing all of them. All the awards, at least the ones I can think of, you guys can remind me if I screwed anything up and forgot about something. But we're going to make our actual pick and then a sleeper pick in each category.

We'll see where we agree and disagree. But, guys, as we record this, I mean, we got a full slate of college football games. This weekend, we've got Ravens Chiefs a week from now and the full NFL slate next weekend. Stephen Ruiz, are you ready? Are you just ready for everything to be here? I didn't realize I was ready until I watched Florida State blow that game against Georgia Tech. And once you see Florida State blow a winnable game, you know it's football season. So yeah, I'm ready. Deonti, you've been in the thick of it coaching already.

So you're probably like, what are you talking about it starting now? You're like in midseason form. Absolutely. The team we see on Friday put up 77 points last week. week. So if Stephen's wondering why I haven't been so active in the group chat, it's because I've been crunch and film. Are you playing the dolphins next week? I don't know if I'm playing the dolphins as much as maybe the team that they played against was closer to Denver defensively in that game. Yeah. Well, listen, we'll find out one way or the other, I guess in a couple days. It's one or the other for Deante. All right, here we go. We got all these. We're going to build up to the biggest

award. So we're going to start with the rookies. of the year. We'll start with offensive rookie of the year. Caleb Williams is the favorite, big favorite at plus 120, then Jaden Daniels at plus 600, then Marvin Harrison Jr. at plus 650. Deonti,

what do you think? You're going with the favorite, or is there another name on this list that you like more than Caleb Williams? So I lined up a dark horse or somebody that if I was a betting man, where I might put my money for each of these categories, but I'm going with the favorite here. I'm picking Caleb Williams

to win rookie of the year. And it has, it's just as much to do with Caleb as it is, the other quarterback situations for the rookies, right? Like, I don't, I obviously don't expect Drake made him play enough. I think that New England is probably going to try to hold on to Jacoby Brouset as a starter for as long as it's feasible. And it may not be long, right? You know, watching the last preseason game announcers are talking about like,

hey, you know, this offensive line, you know, obviously they've got some things to work on, but it might not be as bad as you think it is. And then the dude just gets body slam. like the very next snap and he's hurt. So who knows how long it'll take for Drake May, but I think behind that offensive line and obviously with them trying to incubate him a bit, I don't expect him to produce enough.

And then the other quarterback, Jaden Daniels, I just don't see enough with the commanders at all. And I think that there's an opportunity there where that guy's going to have a lot of turnovers because they're going to ask him to do a lot as a rookie quarterback. I think that Caleb is the one guy who can produce a bunch and his team will likely be competitive in winning enough games.

And that obviously has a big thing to do with how these awards get meted out is how team success works. So I think for those reasons, I would go, Caleb, as my offensive rookie of the year. Ruiz, before you get to your pick, I feel like we haven't talked a lot about Jaden Daniels on this podcast. And I like Jaden Daniels as a prospect for sure. I'm excited to watch him play. When I was doing my offensive rankings, though, I think I had the commanders in like the

bottom three because I looked at the same. I said this might, you know, the Patriots offensive lines getting roasted. Look at that commander's offensive line. It's terrible wide receivers. Terry McLaren and not much else. Cliff Kingsbury is not my favorite offensive coordinator. And I've had this sort of thing in the back of my head since then. Like, I don't know, though.

Could Jaden Daniels just like make up for a lot of these things and not, you know, have the greatest rookie season of all time, but be pretty exciting even with those other factors? What's sort of your expectation, Ruiz, for Daniels, given those other factors he's dealing with? Yeah. if you were asked me to pick this based on who I think is going to have the best career and who has the best pro prospects, I would go with Caleb Williams. But I do think there's like a

scenario where Jaden Daniels can win this, where Clips' offense is just fake enough where he could put up like the efficiency numbers, where if you're not watching, you're like, whoa, this guy's, you know, he's really in control of it. He's got a high completion percentage. He's averaging over, I don't know, like six and a half yards per attempt.

I just, I don't think the bar for winning rookie of the year as a quarterback is that high. and I think Jayden Daniels the way he plays where and who knows how he's going to play in the NFL I'm basing this off of how he played at LSU where he's going to have the rushing production. We know Clif's going to use him as a runner.

So you're going to get that. You're going to tick that box off. If he's writing a bunch of RPO and he does have that high completion percentage and he doesn't throw interceptions, which I don't expect to happen if he's not like executing a heavy dropback menu of passes, I think he's going to be able to keep turnovers down. I really do think there's a way

a way in which he doesn't outplay Caleb and like anybody who's watching the film is like oh yeah Caleb's the one but you know Jaden Daniels has the better number and might appeal to a more casual voter which is what you get with

rookie of the year voting like I would compare it to Trevor Lawrence's rookie year although that's a bad comparison because he was in a terrible situation with Urban Meyer but he didn't put up good stats but if you watch the film you're like

okay this guy's gonna be good and then if you watch Davis Mills's film that same year you look at his stats you're like Oh, Davis Mills, 22 years old, he could turn into something. But if you watch the film, you're like, no, this is empty calories. Like, this is empty production. I think you can get a similar situation.

The problem with Washington is I don't think they're going to get the wins. The bad football team, I don't trust the coaching staff. But let's say they win six, seven games. Let's say the Bears kind of disappoint and maybe only win five, six games or win a similar number of games. I think the expectations might be enough where Jaden gets a few extra rookie of the votes that he would not have gotten if, let's say he was put in a real offense where his numbers are more in line with how he's actually playing. So actually, Jaden Daniels is my bet based on odds. Like, I think that's the best value if you're betting.

Ruiz is in mid-season form, Deonti, just crushing Cliff Kingsbury before he's even, you know, coach the game with the commander's just like four shots in there. I don't really disagree, you know, with any of the things you said there. Yeah. If he, if the numbers are similar, There will definitely be an argument from, you know, commanders fans. And look at what he's working with compared to what Caleb Williams is working with. And I think that will probably be fair. He'll have to do more for, you know, the commanders to be respectable. I didn't overthink it.

This was probably the most, you know, boring one for me of all the ones we did. I just went with Caleb Williams field. We've talked about it. He's set up best to succeed. I've got the bears making the playoffs. If that happens, he's probably going to win offensive rookie of the year. All right. We also chose a sleeper.

I'll start with the sleeper. I've got Malik Neighbors as my sleeper. He's at plus 1,500. And so I was looking at kind of the names in that range. I love Neighbors just as a prospect coming out of LSU. Maybe I'm influenced by the offseason hard knocks where Brian Daibald like 50% of his quotes on that show where neighbors is a dog. Hey, Neighbors is a dog. He just kept saying.

So I'm like, all right, he wants to get Malik Neighbors to football. He was on board with that draft pick. if you're designing an offense and you see what he has to work with, like, yes, Malik neighbors, you should be funneling targets to him over and over and over again. And we know he has that big playability to take it to the house from anywhere. So I think if he puts up some big time numbers and maybe the quarterbacks aren't as impressive, he would be a name to watch for me. Deonti, what do you got in terms of your sleeper?

So my door course is actually probably longer odds than yours. I went with wide receiver lab McCunky. Oh, whoa, oh, you stole mine. You stole mine. Can we tag team? This is like last episode all over again with the Ravens Bill. Let's make sure we have some different picks here, all right? So plus 3,700 on FanDuel.

And I think the pick for this one, the argument I will make for this one, is that Justin Herbert is an equal opportunity distributor of the ball. I think Lab McCona. And because of that, I think Lab McConkey is going to get a high volume of targets, maybe like an outsized volume of targets given the fact that he is a rookie. He's probably going to be their best, by far their best number two option. like the gap between him and whatever else is behind him in terms of target share is pretty massive. And I don't think that he's that far away from being a Josh Palmer level of receiver and producer.

And for that reason, I think third downs, red zone, the things where you get the big time production where we're going to be paying attention as casual fans. Like, oh, okay, this guy's got seven receiving touchdowns, eight receiving touchdowns as a rookie. And a lot of it is just because he's running those whip routes and, you know, hook routes over the middle of the field where he's right in Justin Herbert's vision. I think this is going to be a really good year for Lab McConkey for that reason. So if I were a better man, that's where I would probably drop $100 if I wanted to get the most out of the most bank for my buck, most value for a pick. Ruiz, you're on the McConkey bandwagon as well. Yeah, I can see him having like one of those seasons where he has just like disgusting number of catches but a really low receiving yards number. Like 80 catches for like 600 yards because every yard per target is going to be gross.

Yeah, I mean, just look at the depth chart. Look at like who else does Justin Herbert have to throw to? DJ Chart is not someone who's going to steal targets away from the rookie. Joshua Palmer, a good player, but not that type of player, not like a number one, even though he's the holdover from last year's receiving core. And then Quentin Johnson, I'm just, I don't know, I haven't heard any preseason hype and you expect to hear some preseason hype out of him after what happened during his rookie season. A backup pick, I would go Keon Coleman for the same reason.

I think he could have one of those receiving stats that really jumps off the page. I could see him catching eight or nine touchdowns all of like Chase Claypool, his rookie year, where the touchdown production is there, but the rest of the game may not be there, but you don't really notice it because he's on your fantasy team and he's getting you points every week. So I can see one of those receivers stealing the award

because I would not be surprised if this is a 2021 situation with the quarterbacks where they have all this hype and it's maybe a little too much hype, and they don't have sure things around them. I know Chicago has a really good roster, but we haven't seen Chicago win games I could see a season where those three or four quarterbacks who are up for this award have bad years. And one of these receivers just puts up a crazy number in one of the stack columns.

And that would be enough to win the award. I can't get enough of the key. Some people might be sick of it. The key on Coleman's social media content, I'm all in. I mean, every clip I see when they were just naming random NBA players and he was just in the clip the entire time. He was cooking. He was ripping people for naming guys that were already said. Come on, he's too high profile.

He won six. Lou Williams, I think, goes, come on, he won six man of the year. You can't be naming Lou Williams. So, yeah, I like Likian Coleman content. Name another draft bus that had juice like this before he stepped on the field. There are none. Yeah, if you got that personality, you got to be good. I like that.

Yeah, that's a good theory there. Certainly, I'll be rooting for him. All right, those were offensive rookie of the year. Let's move on defensive rookie of the year. This one, I thought, was definitely more interesting. Layatu Latu, now the face. favorite. Indianapolis Colts edge rusher plus 400.

Dallas Turner of the Vikings, another edge rusher plus 440. And then Jared Verse, another defensive lineman there for the Los Angeles Rams plus 1,000. Ruiz, are any of those guys your picks? Or do you have someone else for defensive rookie of the air? Now, I'm going to go with one of the chalk picks.

I'm going to give the award to Dallas Turner. But on the award, it's going to have Brian Flores' name also. It's going to be crossed out. and then it's going to say Dallas Turner, because that's who I'm giving this award to. This is the Brian Flores, edge rusher who's in the right place at the right time award, because I expect the Vikings to do what they did last year

and just blitz the hell out of their opponents. And when that happens, usually you get a free rusher, and usually you get that free rusher off the edge because offensive lines protect from the inside out. So I think Turner is going to be the beneficiary here. And I mean, I do think he's a talented player, and I think he's going to take advantage of those opportunities when he's put into them.

the Vikings did not have a pass rusher who obviously they've had pass rushes in the past but I don't know if they've had one that's an edge rusher who is best at blitzing like Dallas Turner would be. And when you have a guy like that, you are more inclined to build a game plan around that and to scheme stuff up for him.

So I think, I don't think he's going to have like a big degree of difficulty here. I think even if he just has a C plus rookie year, he could end up with seven and a half sacks. And if he has like a good rookie year, I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches 10 sacks. And that's not something we typically see out of Ricky Edge Rushers. But if he gets to that number, I think this award is his to win. Yeah, they lost to Neil Hunter in the offseason. But I was looking

at their group as a whole. And I was like, I kind of might like their group as a whole better than I did last year. They signed Jonathan Grenard. They got Turner. Van Ginkle is sort of there. Hey, you know, drop or rush that fits that scheme. Are we dropping eight or are we blitzing as Brian Flores was doing all of last season? So yeah, I had a little trouble with their defense. I don't think he's just going to be able to do exactly what he did last year because it felt like that was fading towards the end. But I also trust him to have a plan B and do something different to make the most of his talent this year. Deonté, where are you at? Are you Dallas Turner or you got someone else here?

Clearly, Stephen and I have spent too much time talking balls with one another. Oh, my gosh. I'm going to have to end this group chat. This is not good for team content on the pod. You guys could trade off months. One of you has to be out of there, you know, each month. I've had my head down writing quarterback blurs. I've not been in any group chats.

I haven't even spoken to Deontes since the last time we did a pod together. So this is not collusion. This is just pure coincidence. Maybe a couple of, maybe, maybe we just know ball. Ever thought about that? Great minds think alike. There you go. I mean, my argument is the same, right?

I think this is a lot of manufacturer production. Having John Grenard is a guy who is one of those high effort past rush types, a guy that you can put on the inside to help create space for edge rushers. I think that that fits what Dallas Turner is. is going to be pretty early in his career, right? Which is just like a pure speed guy, get off, use blitzes to try to take up the attention of the protection, and then he can clean things up running around the edge. So I do think this is probably the best situation of the edge rushers for the guy to put up

the stats that you want to see if you're going to give it to an edge rusher. I think he can get that six to eight sack number, which is probably about what you want to see from a guy if you're giving him this award. The other guy that I was considering before we get to Dark Horses was Jared Verse. and I thought I really liked it. And then to the point of looking at dev charts, I started looking at dev charts. It's like, man, how many high impact snaps

is this guy actually going to have an opportunity to go make plays on? Because that defense is pretty barren when you look at the depth chart. I don't know if they're going to be able to stop the run on early downs enough for him to get those third long plays or he can kind of pin his ears back. And I don't know if we're as friendly to TFL production

outside and not instead of sacks when it comes to voting defensive rookie of the year I think that if you're looking at edge rushers you want to see the big splash plays in the passing game I don't know if he's going to get the sack production that he needs to outpace a guy like Dallas Turner so I thought about it I just don't think there's enough around him in Los Angeles

for him to make the most out of what his skill set is And you could make the argument that maybe there's too much around him just because he has another rookie on the defensive line to compete with and there's a good chance that those guys could split votes if they do have two good rookie years Yeah I had when I was doing my defensive rankings I just kept putting teams ahead of them I'm like, look at this depth chart.

And like it would be one thing if they had a veteran coordinator or something. But I'm like, now a first time defensive coordinator with this talent group with nowhere and Donald. Like, ooh, I don't know. I think that could get ugly, which if you own Matthew Stafford and fantasy or if you're like Ruiz and, you know, I heard Ruiz say maybe Stafford for MVP. We'll see if that's his official pick later in this show. But there's going to be an opportunity, I think, for those offensive guys to put up a lot of

numbers. I went different. This probably isn't the smartest pick. but I went Byron Murphy. Maybe I'm buying some of the, you know, preseason just, hey, wow, did you see that clip that just circulated? That was awesome. Byron Murphy, defensive tackle for the Seahawks.

I'm basically all in on the Seahawks being a surprise team this year. I'm all in on their defense as a whole, really being, I had them top five, but top 10, really surprising a lot of people and being good right away. So he's a guy should get a chance to play as part of that defensive line rotation. if they are one of the stories of the year, maybe he gets some pop there at plus 1,100 as a rookie making some noise. Sleeper. Deante, why don't you start us off?

Who was your sleeper for defensive rookie of the year? I was between two guys, but I ultimately landed on Nate Wiggins, I think it's over plus 3,000 on odds. And when I just watched in the preseason when he was available and healthy, you see the coverage skills. And then you start thinking about what he's playing next to you, right? Having Marlon Humphrey healthy. having Kyle Hamilton who can play deep and in the slot.

I think that being a rookie on a defensive backfield like that probably guarantees that you're going to get enough targets and coverage to where if you get any ball production, any turnovers forced, all those are going to be big pluses in his case. And then the other DB I was thinking about was Cooper DeGine in Philadelphia. You know, I'm really interested to see what his role ultimately is for this defense in Philly. But if he's that nickel guy who's blitzing off the edge, maybe gets a couple cheap sacks, you know, playing a lot of zone coverage.

If he gets his hands on the ball a couple times, he might be able to accumulate enough spash plays to be in the conversation late in the year. Yeah, I just did a Ringer-Filly special yesterday, and it's like you go through the defensive depth chart. It's like, yeah, I don't really know who's going to be out there next Friday against Green Bay. I mean, Cooper DeGine's a great example. Is he going to be on the field for them in week one? He could be the starting nickel.

He could be a rotational guy. he might not play at all. And they've got a few positions like that. So yeah, Vic Fangio will see who he decides on there when they play against Green Bay. Ruiz, what do you got? I would probably advise against taking any of these long shots, especially if, because a lot of them are cornerbacks. And that's what I ended up going with. I didn't, against all odds, I didn't pick the same answer as Deonté, though.

I almost picked Nate Williams. But I'm going to go with Terry and Arnold just because of, I think the narrative is going to be there. Like, Detroit's defense is the last missing piece. the coaches talk about how they want to play man coverage, the way that they build a team is around building man coverage. Arnold could be the key to unlocking that element this team has been missing for the last couple of years. And if that's the case, I feel like we're going to be talking about it all year long. We're going to be talking about how well he's playing.

We're going to talk about how key he is to the success of the unit. I think the coaches are going to talk about it in press conferences. I think beat reporters are going to write about it. So I think the narrative aspect could be on his side. and I expect Detroit to be very good, which we can't say for these other teams we've talked about outside of Baltimore. I like that pick for Stephen because he's going to get some high profile matchups against receivers that other people like, right? Like if he has a good day against Christian Watson or Romeo Dobbs, that's going to go a long way, especially if they're playing a bunch of man coverage. If he has a great day against Roma Dense or DJ Moore, that's going to register with people.

So I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity because they want to play a lot of man where you get that, you know, long compilation of him being writing somebody, hip pocket and batting a ball away or running a route for a guy jumping underneath it and getting an interception. And I think that would go a long way. And to Stevens point, the more production you get out of him at corner, the more it kind of confirms the narrative that Detroit is fixing this defense. And I think he'll end up getting a lot of the credit for that if he does produce. The flip side of that is the compilation where he's getting burned all the time.

Yeah. The Brandon Browner compilation. Yeah, we don't need that. But if he avoids that, 14 to 1, not bad odds. Yeah, those two teams, I mean, they're among the favorites in the NFC. And just as you were talking about, they both just tried to totally rebuild their secondary in one offseason. You know, lines taking Terry and Arnold and rake straw early in the draft and then trading for Carlta Davis and then the Eagles drafting, Quinion Mitchell and Cooper DeGine and seeing if, hey, you know, Chauncey Gardner Johnson and safety,

seeing, hey, can we fix this in one off season? So, yeah, they probably both won't be successful. One of them will see if it works out for either of them. It's hard to do that in one off season. I just went for a guy where I thought he might be able to pile up some counting stats. And that's Junior Colson of the Chargers at Plus 3,500. Had the appendectomy this summer missed a lot of time, but came back. He obviously knows the defense with Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter, so I'm not as concerned about it.

I feel like, all right, that might not be too hard of a learning curve. And if you're playing linebacker, offball linebacker, you're going to pile up some tackles for sure. So I don't know what to make it. That's another depth chart where you look at it and you're like, all right, I like some of these players have been very good at times in their career. But if you're going through the whole thing, you're not really sure. So they have an easy schedule. Maybe they're a surprisingly competitive team and maybe Junior Colson piles up some tackles. Deonti, did you like Junior Colson as a prospect or were you sort of out on?

on him or on the facts. I would say, to answer your question directly, I liked him, I would say that he was one of the few linebackers I watched that. I actually felt like if I was a GM, I would be comfortable drafting this guy.

Okay. Because he can play decently in coverage. I thought his eyes were good. I do think this is a good landing spot for him, obviously being able to play in the system that he's familiar with and having Denzel Paraman next to him as kind of like your thumper type

that allows him to kind of range a little bit. So I do think that he's going to spend a lot of time on the field. and I think that the case for him is accumulation of stats, like you were saying, and he's going to have a lot of opportunity, because there's not a ton of linebacker depth to take him off the field for in Los Angeles in the first place. But I think you can play in getting him on the field a bunch. I can see him having 100 tackle year, you know,

and if you get any TFLs or sacks or interception production, that would definitely go a long way towards help in this case. I feel like linebacker is the easiest way to kind of fake your way into a rookie of the year award. Like if you get 150 tackles, half those tackles, could be fake and like the scorekeeper is just giving you those tackles. Jordan Brooks did it. Was he one of the people stuck in the elevator? I feel like that's key information.

I don't think so. Herbert, Dan Fouts. Fouts family, Herbert. I want to say a couple. Yeah. Those Harbaugh quotes were incredible about the leadership. He's winning 10 games this year. I've never wanted to bond more than sitting staring at the elevator number waiting to get to

my floor. We got some good characters this year. We have some good new character, not all new characters. but old characters returning. I think it's going to be a good season with some of this stuff, like Jim Harbaugh quotes being circulated every Monday or whenever he gives his press conference. That's going to be a lot of fun.

All right, take a break. We come back. We did the rookies. We got offensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, coach of the year, and MVP remaining. We'll get to those in a minute on the Ringer NFL show.

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Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-help.com. All right. We're back on the ringer. NFL show. We went through the rookies. Now we get to offensive player the year, which I'm curious to hear who you guys pick, because has it morphed into the best non-quarterback? Or is that just kind of coincidence that the last four or five have been non-quarterbacks? I don't know, but Tyreek Hill is the favorite at plus 750, Christian McCaffrey second at plus 950, C.D. Lamb plus 1,100, Jamar Chase, plus 1,200, and Justin Jefferson at plus 1,200.

Ruiz, do you have any of those guys or you've got someone else as your first pick? I do. I'm going to go with C.D. Lamb at 11 to 1. And I think this is similar to our rookie of the year pick for the offensive side, where Dallas doesn't have anyone else to throw the ball to. We have Jalen Tolbert here.

We saw Brandon Cook somehow. Jake Ferguson, I think he's a decent tight end, but I don't think he's much more than that. The second round pick last year, Luke Schoonmaker did nothing. He was mostly a blocking titan in his rookie year, and I haven't heard anything about him during camp. I looked up. I googled his name last night. No news stories came up.

No one was like, oh. Googling Luke Schoonmaker. See, this is a grinder right here. He's making noise. No one was saying that. The only thing I did read one story, and they were like, here's a good sign for him. And it was just Mike McCarthy complimenting Jake Ferguson for having a second year breakout and Schooner is in his second year. So maybe he'll have a breakout. Now, that's the only optimism I could find in Dallas about this guy.

So there just aren't any other pass catchers, which is kind of what we saw last year. And Cedley Lamb basically dominated every stat category for wide receiver. He's kind of like Brock Purdy where when you look up all the stats or all the splits, like you go like versus zone, versus man, verse one high, verse two high, short, deep, inside the numbers, inside the numbers, between the hashes. He's like number one in all of them. He just stacks numbers. and I think he's going to have the volume at the end of this year,

even more so than last year. I could see him maybe having like 125 catches and having 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns, and it just feels like one of those years that you have to reward. I think that's been the case over the last four years, not necessarily the fact that this award has become the best non-quarterback award. I think we've just seen a lot of skill players have these historic years, Christian McCaffrey last year.

Like Michael Thomas a couple years ago, he broke the receptions record. I could see C.D. Lamb having a similar year. Deonti, I couldn't tell if that CD Lamb Brock Purdy comparison. Was that a knock on CD Lamb? Was that a compliment of Brock Party? Like, my mind was, I'm like,

where is Steve Ruiz landing with this? I don't know. What was going through your head as he made that comp? Knowing how Stephen feels about Brock Purdy, I feel like that is by definition damning with paint race. That's why I was thinking. I'm like, well, yeah, we have a history here. No red flags is a red flag.

There you go. Deonti, he's got C.D. Lamb. Who do you have as your offensive player of the year? This one took me a while because it informs my MVP pick, because I made an MVP pick on the pod with you, and I felt really good about it, and I was looking at Player of the Year odds, and I was like, you know what?

I think I might like Jamar Chase's chances as offensive player of the year more than I like Gerald Burroughs chances as MVP this year. So that's my pick. I think it's plus 1,400. And for me, a lot of it is just watching how his route tree has grown over the years, especially last year, not having Joe Burrell, being able to move him around a little bit more. We saw more slot targets.

You're starting to see him work a little bit more in the intermediate areas in the middle of the field more often. And that was something for me when he was coming out of LSU that I was actually most excited to see. Is this a guy that can just be a separator all up and down the route tree against mankind? coverage. And then we found out like, okay, the speed is real and he can go win despite not being a 6-3 type of wide receiver with a 45-inchvert, right? And I think that that addition of his game, versatility inside and outside, and then you add in the fact that you're going to have the quarterback that wants to get you the ball and push it downfield with you, I can see him having that 12 to 14 touchdown season with over, you know, 1,300 receiving yards. And I think

that that's going to be the reason why he ends up winning it. But you could convince me, in either direction. This is either going to be a big Joe Burrow year or a big Jamar Chase year. And I think one of those two is probably leaving this season with some kind of hardware. Yeah, Chase, this contract thing is still as someone who's most of the time,

like, it's not going to, you know, no one's going to miss game checks and it's going to be okay. It is a little strange. I mean, he comes back, he practices. Zach Taylor says, yeah, he's, you know, we expect him to be practicing going forward. Great to have him back. And then the next day, he's like, nope, I'm good here. And there's just all these

photos and videos every day. You know, he looks in good spirits. He's dapping up the security guy on his way to the field. He's not moping around. But he's also not practicing, which I don't care that much that he's not practicing. Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, is there any tandem that has more reps together throughout the course of their lives than, you know, those two guys? But it just sort of makes you wonder with some of the ways the Bengals have done business in the past. Like, is he definitely going to be on the field in week one? I forgot until this week that Chris Jones didn't play in week one last year. Remember that? He went to the game and was like in the press box with his agents. And I'm like, oh, yeah, I guess once in a while, someone is like, I'll go ahead

and miss a game check here and then go forward. So it continues to be something to watch there in Cincinnati as we near week one. All right. I'm not going with any of the high odds guys. I'm going with Garrett Wilson. Come on. If I choose him to win something every year for like the next eight years, I'm going to be right one of these years. So I'm just going to keep doing it. I was thinking about this. Like Ruiz, his feet of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Zach Wilson and that rotating cast, the most underrated feat in recent NFL memory?

I mean, that's incredible that he did that with those quarterbacks. Is it not? Yeah, it's like he doesn't get credit for it. I remember the days when DeAndre Hopkins used to do this with like Brian Hoyer and Tom Savage or whatever his name was. And we used to like give him all the credit in the world. I think Garrett Wilson is maybe the most underrated receiver in the league right now. I remember we did the wide receiver draft earlier in the offseason,

and I was stunned that he wasn't taken earlier. I could see him having a Devante Adams-esque year if Aaron Rogers is Aaron Rogers. I think he has that ability. I think he has that versatility. And I'm talking about the year that Devonte Adams had, I think it was the last year Rogers won MVP, where he was basically the entire offense. He caught the bubble screens.

He ran the digs over the middle of the field. He ran the vertical routes outside. I'd like, Garrett Wilson can do that, and he may have to do that if like a Mike Williams goes down, which is very possible. Yeah, I was thinking big volume for him in that offense, assuming Roger stays relatively healthy. They're going to funnel targets to him. I just want to watch the man get to play with a competent quarterback for the first time in his career. So he's my pick at plus 2,500. And then for my sleeper.

So this is why I started the segment with, you know, is it a quarterback or a non-quarterback? I sort of agree with what you were saying, Ruiz. I don't know that it's just totally changed. And I think this is a year where we could see it go back to a quarterback. And so my pick is Josh Allen at plus 3,500. I don't think the bills are going to be good enough or have the win total where he's going to win MVP. I'm not totally discounting it. It could happen.

But that's not my prediction. I think they're going to be around a 10-win team there in Buffalo. But what he's going to be asked to do and the narrative where we're going to be. we're all going to be going nuts on this podcast. If that offense is cooking in like week eight, like, oh my gosh, Josh Allen with this group, it's just putting everyone on his back. Like, could he have 4,500 yards passing and 800 yards rushing something like that? I think that type of season, it's not likely, but is it possible?

Yes. And there's very few quarterbacks where a season like that is even possible. So I think he's got the, he could have the narrative. He could have the numbers. He could have the thing where, no, he can't be MVP because Patrick Mahomes or someone, they're like 13 and 4 and they're having a great season so he's not going to win MVP. So I think it could line up for Josh Allen to get some recognition, but not MVP this season, Deontay. What do you think?

I'm going to reserve all my thoughts on this. Oh, okay. A little tease. I like it. We can read between the lines. But I love the take because I do think ultimately the reason why I feel so confident about Buffalo making the playoffs and continue it to be a near contender, if not just like stamped as a Super Bowl contender is because of how productive he is.

And I do think that this year is set up perfectly for him to have that 3,500 yards passing, you know, 750, 800 yards rushing over 40 total touchdowns. And I think that, you know, as the more I think we get comfortable with just saying, like, Josh Allen is clearly the second best quarterback in the league, the less time we have to spend talking about the turnovers and the more we can just acknowledge, like, this guy's being asked to be a superhero every single week. every third down, he's got to solve all these problems. And now that there's no Stefan Diggs there and its young wide receivers,

unproven commodities, that production, I think, is just going to be so much more impactful, not just on the field, but the way that we receive it because of the situation that they have built around them. And the offensive line is better. The offensive line is better. I think the running game will be better. And I think that that's going to allow them to maybe get back into pushing the ball vertically down the field off of play action and getting you those big explosive plays that's going

to keep Josh Allen in this. in the offensive player of the year or MVP conversation. Okay, we got to get this squared away before the season starts. Because I think we're all high on Josh Allen. I think we've all come around on this offense being good. But there's a very real possibility where it just goes to shit. And the offensive line is bad, the receiving court. Nobody steps up into the void left behind by Diggs.

Josh Allen leans into his chaotic energy and throws a bunch of interceptions. Joe Brady is the Joe Brady that was in Carolina who got fired by Matt Rule. Who are we blaming? We need a scapegoat. Is it Joe Brady? Is it that simple? Are we blaming Keon Coleman? I'm blaming Joe Brady.

Joe Brady, okay. All right. So what do you think the floor is, though? Like, because I, like, in my opinion, if Josh Allen is healthy, they're not going to finish lower than, like, 12th in offense. I mean, that would really surprise me. I would, like, you can blame Joe Brady. I would also be in for like, just, hey, look at this depth chart.

Look at what he's working with compared to other people. I mean, Mahomes last year, like, with. so little to work with, and they were eighth. So I don't think Alan is not quite Mahomes, so I'm adjusting like four spots there. And at least Mahomes had, all right, interior offensive line was awesome. Kelsey could still get you a bucket when you needed late in the year. Rishi Rice was something. But I think Alan will have like a little bit of the Rishie Rice type level of production. So I don't know. I think I would probably be more apt to be like, well, it was a reset year. They blew up the roster. It's supporting cast is bad. And that's probably

who I would blame. I would probably blame Sean McDermott, actually, if this happened and the bills imploded. Because I've been itching to blame Sean McDermott for this team's failures. But he hasn't really given me a good reason to do that so far. But I think what the floor is, it's not the same situation, not the same setup, but it kind of is, is last year's

Philadelphia Eagles. Where if you going in that year, I would have been like, this offense of line and this receiving core, like, the floor for this offense is high even if Jaylen Hertz takes a step back. But I think it's hard account for schematic

incompetence without seeing it and personnel deficiencies? Although they still finished 11th which is a you know,

it's an I mean, yeah, so I think there's a very good chance that they finished 12th in EPA or something or DVOA,

whatever your metric of choice is. Okay. But it doesn't feel like it. But it looks ugly. I mean, we could just point to Buffalo last year where they like were second in everything.

And in week 10, we were all saying, what the hell's wrong with the Buffalo offense? We have to fire the offensive coordinator. So I don't know.

I think there's a very fine line between, whoa, this bill's offense is even better than we thought. And whoa, this is not just as bad as we thought it could be. It's even worse. It's funny because of the people who were at the head of this organization. But I always think about the dip between 2015 in Carolina versus 2016. Right. And I look at this depth chart. And so much of it just kind of reminds me of after the 2015 Super Bowl run where everybody in Carolina was like,

All right, well, Cam, your MVP, this is totally your show. We're not getting you a number one wide receiver. Your running back is decent but pretty limited. The offensive line is okay, but not exactly what you want it to be. And we're resetting on defense. And that 2016 Panther team went six and ten, despite, you know, how people felt about Cam Newton and what he had to do to try to play superhero. So it is very much in play that he might have a 34 touchdown 16, 17,

interception year. And those interceptions happen to be like at the unluckiest time. And that ends up derailing the season. And then we will have to come back and talk. I'm just letting everybody know that I'm blaming Joe Brady. I'm blaming Sean McDermott. I'm blaming Brandon Bean. The one person

whose fault this can't be for 2024 is going to be Josh Allen. I just want to make sure my stance on that is clear. I'll blame Nathan Peterman before I blame Josh Allen. We found a good, yeah, this feels like a thing of the show right now. It's preemptive blame. You know, this this could be an episode in and of itself.

We've been doing that just organically with different teams so far. All right, you guys, so I went with Josh Allen as my sleeper, but I think you guys didn't give yours yet. Ruiz, who do you have as your sleeper? I was kind of thinking along the same lines as you, where I think a quarterback could win this, but I was thinking of a quarterback who doesn't get credit for doing all the quarterback things,

but maybe runs for a lot of touchdown. So I was thinking about picking Anthony Richardson, but looking back at the fact that no quarterback, Reback has won this, and I don't think Richardson is going to be efficient enough to get the award. I'm going to go with his mate in the backfield and go with Jonathan Taylor. I can see Jonathan Taylor in this offense. Let's assume the Colts have their offensive line takes a step forward. They have a top five offensive line, which I think is possible.

You have Shane Steichen pulling the strings, calling the offense, calling the run game. You have Anthony Richardson there to acting as a gravitational force for defenses. You have to account for that extra gap in the run game. you watched the Colts early tape, their offense. There were so many holes that they're running back that started. I can't remember his name, but he might have been the worst running back I've ever seen. I think he averaged one yard for Kerry last year, actually, for the Colts. But if you had just any other back in there, especially Jonathan Taylor, those runs were to win for 50 yards.

And it's because Anthony Richardson combined with Shane Steichen scheme. So I think if we get all three of those things, all three of those elements cooking together, next year. I could see a 1,500-yard season, maybe a 15-touchdown season. He's not going to do the Christian McCaffrey thing, because I don't think he's that type of threat out of the backfield as a receiver, but I could see him just stacking numbers and ending up as like the number one fantasy play running back in the league next year. Ruiz has Jonathan Taylor with the Colts Deontae. Who do you got? Who's the sleeper? I really like Jonathan Taylor. I considered him, but I'm actually going with Derek Henry here to what offensive player of the year. I think that, and I think a lot of

this is going to come down to short yardage goal line production because he'll be able to be on the field to finish drives for this team. So I do think that there's going to be an opportunity for him to get 10 to 12 touchdowns. Because Keaton Mitchell and the rest of the running back room, I think, are there for very specific reasons. We'll probably see enough of Derek Henry for him to produce. And then I just look at how effective Baltimore was on early downs in the run game last year and what the threat of Lamar Jackson as a runner gets this team in the run game,

despite seeing as many heavy boxes as they do. They were top 10 in success rate. They were top 10 in the amount of yards per rush against eight-man boxes. Like their explosive run rate is good. Everything that you would look at basic and advanced metrics tells you that this team can run the ball on early downs, basically no matter what the defense wants to do to them. And it's because of what Lamar Jackson can do. And I think that if Derek Henry is healthy and has indicted,

juice at all, we're going to see him pop some more big runs despite, you know, kind of walking towards that age cliff. So I think that we'll get one more really highly productive year out of Derek Henry and it'll come this year and that'll be my Dark Horse pick for Player of the Year. That conversation just

we just hit on like so many of the things I'm excited to either watch or get answers on, you know? Anthony Richardson, let's keep him healthy. I want to see what it looks like in this offense. Derek Henry with Lamar Jackson in the backfield. That's going to be must see TV. Josh Allen, what can you do with this supporting group? Yeah, all like some big time

storylines going into this season with that category with our sleepers for offensive player of the year. All right, defensive side of the ball, defensive player of the year. Favorites are Micah Parsons, Miles Gareth plus 600, T.J. Watt plus 700. Max Crosby plus 1,000, and Nick Bosa plus 1,000. I can start us off here because I went with a boring chalk pick. I think this is Michael Parsons here. He's finished second, second, and third in three seasons in the NFL, which is kind of wild when you think about it in terms of defensive player of the year. But he hasn't gotten it yet.

I'm excited to see what that looks like in Mike Zimmer's defense. Zimmer is so good on third down. I think they'll find ways to get Parsons loose in that defense. He's had over 13 sacks every season in the NFL. any advanced stat you want to look at. It's just like there's some of them where it's Parsons and everybody else. But at like the worst, it's like, oh, he's second or third in that past rushing stats. So it could be one of those things or if it's close between him and like a Garrett or a T.J.

Water, even a Bosa. It's like, let's give it to the little lifetime achievement, even though he's still young in Micah Parsons. And let's have him be the tiebreaker. So that's my pick. Kind of boring. But that's the one I was feeling there. Ruiz, what do you got for this one? I don't think you can help.

make a boring pick in this category because it's the same four candidates every year. It's some combination of Parsons, Garrett, Watt, and Bosa. And I went with Michael Parsons. He's the best defensive player in the NFL now that Aaron Donald is no longer in this league. And he has a new defensive coordinator who I think he's going to use them in new ways, and interesting ways that we're going to talk about. It's another narrative thing for me where I think the Cowboys defense is going to be a little bit better than people expect.

I pick them to win the NFC East because I have faith in Mike Zimmer. And part of the reason I have faith in Mike Zimmer is because he has Michael Parsons at his disposal. And he has, I think he's going to get the most out of him. I think this is going to be his best season in terms of sack totals. I think it's going to be his best season in terms of just havoc causing. It's going to be easy to watch him every week and be like, that's the best player on the field. Whereas, like a guy like Bose is going to continue to dominate, but in the same ways he's been dominant. same for Miles Garrett, same for T.J. Watt. I just don't think it's going to be new enough. And I think when you're, when you have these four great options to choose from every year and there's barely anything separating them, I think the uniqueness of how Parsons gets used this year, it's going to be the separating factor.

The possibility of a December game where the Cowboys in Zimmer's outside and he's freezing, I mean, one of my favorite just NFL images of him just with the cheeks are red and like Mike McCarthy makes some bizarre play call and like the camera pans to Zimmer and he's not even trying to hide his disgust like the fireworks that are possible. I mean, this is getting me tingling. You know, I like weird stuff about watching football. This is one of the things that has me real excited is something like that. So as you were describing that, I'm like, oh, man, it's going to be a great season.

We won't King Shame. If you like seeing Mike Zimmer with the red face in the cold, then that's a teacher. I'm a little weird. You know, we'll find that out throughout the course of the season on this show. What is, you know, getting my juices flowing versus the average football fan. I like watching Trevor Simeon play football. That's probably weirder than what you're saying. Yeah, no, that is, yeah, that's another level.

I can't get to that one. All right, Deont, we went chalk with Michael Parsons. Who do you got? I'm so glad you guys have done this. because I want to stand on this island alone and step outside of the clear top four. And not that I'm going deep into long odds here. My pick is Max Crosby. I think that this is going to be an excellent year for Max Crosby's production.

If you look at who he's had to play alongside and how productive he's been, despite the struggles of his teammates, he has, he's never had, or at least in the last couple seasons, he hasn't had a guy that's had more than 20 QB hits and 10 TFLs. And now you're bringing in Christian Wilkins to be your secondary pass rusher and a guy on the interior, which can really open things up for them to run twists and stunts and not ask Crosby to have to win, basically solo, out on the perimeter, play after play. I think the sack production has been there. The total pressures have been there.

I think if there's anything that would cost him, it's that he's playing for Patrick Graham, who's a little bit vanilla defensively. So you might not get as many manufactured looks where you can really kind of rack up production. in that way. But I do think that Max Crosby has kind of been teaming on the edge as an all-pro guy, somebody that I think everybody recognizes is one of the five best past rushers in the NFL. He just has not really punched that ticket of being in the same conversation as Micah, as Miles, as T.J. Watt. And I think that this is going to be a really big year for him to do so. I think we're going to get a 16-sack year. And again, another year of 20, you know, 18 to 20 TFLs. And this will be his award to win, even if they are not the best in terms of team wins this season.

It's kind of like the defensive end version of Garrett Wilson. As you were describing that, it's where you're right. There's just nobody else on that defense that offenses have had to worry about in the front. And he's just been consistently productive and disruptive year after year after year. And of course, we've talked about this before, but him and Christian Wilkins just never coming off the field. I mean, that's huge for your sort of depth when they can just play at that level and

you don't have to spell them and have. then play whatever 60% of the snaps or whatever it is. So I like that choice as well. All right, Deonti, let's stick with you. Who do you have as your sleeper then for defensive player of the year? This really doesn't count as a sleeper because I think he's the best defensive player. The best defensive player in the NFL and it's Kyle Hamilton. I think that despite losing Mike McDonald and maybe the role being changed a bit,

I think we'll probably see a little bit more of him play deep because Marlon Humphrey's back on the field, then in the slot. And still with that, I think the tackle production, the turnover production, how often he's going to be around the football, it is lined up perfectly for him to have a huge turnover season. Blitz all the time because they have even more coverage depth behind him now that everybody's healthy, you can really use him as a blitzer. You can get creative with him in the middle of the field and zone coverage.

You can match him up with tight ends. I think this will be another year of him earning that avatar nickname that they have for I'm in Baltimore, and that would be my long-shot defensive player of the year pick. I like it, Ruiz. Do you also, I know you love a Kyle Hamilton. We all love this show as very pro Kyle Hamilton. Was that your choice or you went somewhere else? Of course I have Kyle Hamilton.

Of course, me and Deonti have the same answer. You shouldn't even have asked. I do want to ask what you guys think the benchmarks are statistically for him to win this award. Because that's what it is. He could play the best safety we've ever seen. And if he doesn't get a certain number of picks or a certain number of sacks, no one will care. So I would put the number at like five and five if he has over five interceptions and five sacks.

That was going to be my baseline too. But we have seen in the past that safeties have had, or defensive backs in general, have had to get up to like eight or nine interceptions. I'm thinking about like Ed Reed or Gilmore a couple years ago. So it could be, the bar could be even higher. But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he goes crazy in one of those categories depending on how Baltimore uses him. If they do use him as mainly a coverage piece,

he's around the ball so often and he's so capable of getting around the field and getting into throwing windows that I think he could be a nine interception player. And at the same time, if they use them as a blitzer, I think he could be a seven sack player. I remember going to training camp last year and watching them do 11 on 11s.

And with one arm, he put, I think it was a backup left tackle, but he put it left tackle on his ass with one arm, with like a long arm move. He's a safety. I was like, who was that? And then I realized it was Kyle Hamilton because he looks like a pass rusher when he's standing next to those guys in the huddle.

But no, it was Kyle Hamilton. So, yeah, I think this is a good pick. I agree that it's not much of a long shot, but he does have 30 to one odds. And I think that's because how hard it is to win this award as a safety. Yeah, he had four interceptions last year, 13 passes defended, one forced fumble, three sacks, 10 tackles for loss, four quarterback hits. And that was just against the 49ers. Yeah, that was one game.

That was Week 13. Yeah, that's the biggest alliance. So he's capable of just filling that statute up in a number of ways. Also, I could see him being a guy who like when Belichick's doing his weekly stuff, you know, being like Kyle Hamilton's the best, you know, the same way you guys just said. Kyle Hamilton's the best defensive player in football right now. That kind of thing. Like he's sort of like a football savant's football player, it feels like. like where the buzz could really grow for him and then not hipster. You notice I didn't say hipster

because Hamilton's legit here. So I think the buzz definitely could, man, 22 years old last year. This guy just keep him healthy. He's going to be fun to watch for a long, long time. All right, I went deep with the sleeper. So anyone who's listened to this show or listen to Philly Special knows I have no idea what the Eagles are actually going to be this year. All my takes are all over the place. I don't feel confident about any of them. The only thing I'm confident in is that Jaylon Carter is going to be a monster this year. And you were talking about Aaron Donald's retiring. And I was sort of wondering, who's going to take the defensive tackle pelt? You know, like, does Chris Jones have another year in him? Is it Quinn and Williams? Is it Jeffrey Simmons? Is it

Dexter Lawrence? There's a lot of great defensive tackles. But the up-and-comer, who I feel like just has this ceiling to be a game wrecker, based on what I saw last year, just like eye-popping reps he had. He just got into the league in like his first six weeks. what he was doing to opposing guards and centers last year. And that was Jalen Carter. He had more pressures than any rookie defensive tackle in the last 10 years. He had six sacks. He did kind of fade down the stretch where the whole team faded.

The defense faded down the stretch. He probably wasn't used to playing that many reps. Man, he's plus 7,500. And I think he has a chance to have a big, big year for the Eagle. So that's a deep, deep sleeper. But I like Jalen Carter. Deonté, where are you with? were to Jalen Carter expectations in year two.

I mean, from all the Philly content that I've taken in from mini camp through training camp and in preparation for the season, the one consistency has been, hey, we don't really know what the defense looks like. Some days are good on coverage. Some days not as good in coverage. But the one thing that's for sure is that when we watch one-on-ones, Jalen Carter is dropping guards and tackles into the quarterback's lap, right? He's winning with speed, with power.

And that's something, again, that you said early in the year. It was very clear that like, okay, the gear that we saw him be able to tap into at Georgia is replicable in the NFL. And I think the best thing for this pick, and this is something that I'm sure that you've talked a lot about on Philly Special. I know that our pals, Bull Wolf and Zach Berman have talked a bunch about this as well. There's nothing behind him to take him off the field for. Morrow Joe Moor is not stealing any snaps. Marlon Tui-Beloto is not stealing any snaps for Jalen Carter. And it's been very clear based on the way that they built this depth chart that the expectation

is that this guy is going to have to put up Christian Wilkins' levels of availability. And if he's able to stomach that and can be productive throughout the year that way, we could see big, big time production numbers from this guy as a defensive tackle. And I think that they'll blitz enough to be able to get him the one-on-ones that he needs to be able to go beat guards on the interior. So I don't know if I would have picked him as my dark horse because that Philly defense is just so much in the air. But if there's a guy's air that can produce at that level, it would be Jalen Carter. So what's the theory on his second half kind of being slower than the first half of last year?

Because I remember the first half, like you guys said, it was just like all world stuff. And then the second half he kind of fell off. Was it just like him hitting the wall situation? Or was there an effort concerned? Like what happened there? No, I don't think it was an effort thing. Like Jordan Davis, his effort has been questioned more. And I think that might be more conditioning than anything else.

But I just think the number of snaps those guys play at Georgia. It's always a story coming out the way they rotate guys. And then you come into the NFL and you have to play. a lot more. And Matt Patricia is your defensive coordinator all of a sudden. And Noah and Hassan Reddick's looking at the sideline being like, you really want me to be doing this? It's third down. Like I'm trying to get. And it just, it was just chaos all over the place. So yes, I think conditioning has been a big theme of the summer with both Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, because we just talked about Christian Wilkins playing all those snaps with the dolphins last year.

As Deonté was saying, can Jalen Carter handle that kind of workload? Because Jordan Davis, we don't know if he's going to be on the field on third down, but Jalen Carter, it's going to be like, you're going to be playing him until you feel like you can't. Yeah, unless he needs to come off the field, he's going to be on the field. So I think that's what their expectation is going in to this season. All right. Take one more break. We come back. The two big ones, coach of the year and MVP. All right, we're back on the ringer NFL show. No odds on coach of the year. So I can't tell you who's the favorite, who's a sleeper, anything like that. So I guess we can just have our pick and then have our second pick if we want here because there's no odds to tell us who is

Sleeper is Ruiz. Who is your pick for Coach of the Year? I'm going to go with Shane Steichen, not a surprise based on the things I said earlier. I thought about doing Brian Callahan because I'm kind of buying into the Titans height now. I don't think this is going to work long term, but I can see them sneaking into the playoffs. And if they sneak into the playoffs, he's going to win the award because that's what this has become. Whoever exceeds expectations the most. It's not actually who did the best job coaching. but I wouldn't be surprised if it's one of those those AFC South teams if they do rise up and win

and I would throw Jacksonville in there. I think Doug Peterson can win it. Domego-Rines is the one coach that I don't see winning it just because of the hype last year, obviously, and then there's so much hype going into the season this year, I can't see him winning that award. But Stuyken's my pick because he's the one that I've seen call plays at this level

at a high level for multiple years recently. Doug Peterson hasn't done that, and I don't think he's going to be calling plays because Press Taylor's still around. And Brian Callahan, we haven't seen it yet. Like, he was talked up behind the scenes in Cincinnati. He was the offense coordinator, but obviously, Zach Taylor called the plays. So I don't know what to expect there. But I do think the award is going to this division, one of those three teams.

All right. Shane Steichen is Ruiz's pick. Deontae, what do you think? My pick is Amico Ryan's. Even though I agree with Stephen that I think the degree of difficulty is pretty high for him to win coach of the year. I do think the one situation where he has the best opportunity to do so as if Houston's a one seed overall in the AFC or in the NFL period. And I think that that's on the table for this team.

And obviously, if you've been listening to the ringer NFL show, you've heard me wax poetic, plenty of times about how I think Houston is going to be the best team in the AFC this year. And I think a lot of that, not only is it C.J. Stroud, Bobby Sloick, adding talent to the wide receiver room is Stefan Diggs, trying to open up the passing game on early downs more. I think this is going to be a year with the Neil Hunter playing across from Will Anderson with Derek Stingley 100% healthy where we start to see some of those premium positions

really click in the place and you can kind of start to see maybe the outlines of that San Francisco defense starts to fall into place for Damiko Ryans and if we see that and they are the one seed and they win their high profile games I can see him winning coach of the year. Yeah, he was my runner up.

Ruiz makes a good point that usually it goes to the team that stunk the last year and it's a new coach and he comes in. But I do think that they have that high ceiling where if they're winning 12 plus games, he didn't win it last year. It'd be one thing if he won it last year, but he didn't win it last year. So he's still a candidate. You know, he's going to be out there and he's a likable guy, you know, whether it's media

or player just personality-wise. I think D'Amico Rines is a likable guy. Their offense is going to be good. And if that, to your point, Deont, if that defense really gets going, he should and he will get credit for that. So I think there's a path there for D'Amico Ryan. So I had him as my runner-up. My actual pick is Mike McDonald.

I'm just staying on my Seahawks theme for every show. We do. But I think the Seahawks are making the playoffs. I think there's a chance. I'm not brave enough to pick it. But there's a chance they win the NFC West. And if he goes in there and he dethrones the San Francisco 49ers in his first year as head coach, and he's making that, Shanahan, he's keeping that 49ers defense in check.

and he's taking it to Sean McVeigh. I mean, that's going to be really, really impressive right away, replacing Pete Carroll and doing that with that roster. So I think even if that doesn't happen, if you win 10, 11 games, I think he still has a chance. Now, it's not a monster upgrade from what they won last year, so that's working against me.

But I just think there's going to be a lot of buzz. I try not to over-hype these guys, and I failed at doing that because I talked about them. I feel like every podcast we've done. but they got to go out and prove it. Sometimes you feel stupid for these takes in November. You're like, man, I really thought that coach was going to be going, what is happening here?

But I just think he's going to be real good of like the recent coaching hires who are not retreads. I feel like more confident in him from what I've heard and seen than almost any of the new guys. So there you go. Those were my two picks. Ruiz, you gave your pick. Who is your sort of second option? Well, on the last spot, I picked the Jets. I had a lot of Jets hype.

So I'm going to go with Robert Solid. Wow. I like that. We're giving the bald guy some love, by the way, with these coaching fix. Shoutouts on my brother. Yeah, you got to. But the reason why I think this is going to happen is because he's been one of the better

defensive coaches for the better part of the last half decade, I would say. Going back to his time as 49ers, D.C., he's finally going to have an offense that will allow him to win games. And then I think it's going to be easier to see the little agency gives his team. He's pushed this Jets team to seven wins the last couple of years with the worst quarterback play in the league by far. And we hear so much about how important quarterback play is in this league. But the Jets have been a competitive team, a feisty team, a team that's given good

teams problems. Like last year, at the beginning of the year, they were playing a bunch of these good quarterbacks and giving them issues. They beat the bills. They almost beat the Chiefs. They got blown out by the Cowboys, but there was another game in there, the Eagles. They beat the Eagles when they were riding high. So I could see him finally getting some flowers for the accomplishments he has.

He has the last couple of years. He has a decent resume considering everything. And I think if Aaron Rogers stays healthy, this offense, it's not going to be elite. I don't think it's going to be championship worthy, but I do think it's going to be good enough to carry this defense over the finish line and finally get solid in the playoffs. If he gets in the playoffs, he's going to get some votes, especially in New York. My one concern is expectations. Because for some reason, this is the favorite to win the AFC East, I believe. I think they have the same win total of the Buffalo Bills.

So expectations are high, but it doesn't feel like expectations are high. Yeah, I agree with that. They make the playoffs, the hype for the Jets is going to be out of control, whether that says division winners or a wildcar team. It's not going to be like, oh, they were expected to do this. It's going to be like, oh, my gosh, the Jets are actually having a moment finally. So I like that. That's a good, that's a good zag, Robert Sala.

I don't think many people would be picking him for this award, but you laid it out. There's a path there for him. Deontay, what do you have? What's your runner up? I'm staying in the AFC East here, and I'm really probably just more painting an argument than actually, like, indicating how much belief I have in this team. I'm so excited. I'm going on Mike McDaniel here.

And I think a lot of this is just going to be, if you replicate the same kind of explosive offense again, and if this team ends up winning the AFC East, and Tua looks like, okay, maybe not an MVP candidate, but all the counting stats make it look once again, like this is a guy who's in the conversation as a top 10 quarterback in the NFL, and if this defense can give them anything for as banged up as it is and after losing Christian Wilkins, I can see the argument there. I do think that the opportunity will be there because they have to see Josh Allen, because they have to see Aaron Rogers, where if they're able to win that division

and they come in as a top three seat in the AFC, I think that there's really only one place for the credit to go, and it's going to be Mike McDaniel. So it is kind of a long shot. If there were odds on this, I don't know that this will be the strongest odds play. But I do like Mike McDaniel, maybe as a dark horse pick. If it's not going to just be kind of chalky, Dan Campbell, D'Amico Ryan's, or like Stephen said, the team that outperforms expectations of most probably in the AFC. Yeah, the question with McDaniel is like, what does he have to do that he hasn't done already?

Right. Sort of. Because, yeah, it's been an impressive to, you. years. I'm with you when you look at what he's done with Tua and that offense. So are we at a point, like, do they beat some good teams this year? And you're like, all right, they're not just, you know, piling on against inferior opponents because last year they were one and six against playoff teams with a horrible point differential. And it is a regular season award. See, I feel like they would have to win the division. They would have to have like some big wins against the bills, the jets,

maybe some other playoff teams for him to finally get that bump. I think, you're feeling good if you have this ticket on like November 28th, but then starting in week 13, they go to Green Bay, then they play the Jets, then they play at Houston, then they play San Francisco, then they play at Cleveland and then at New York. It's going to be really cold. I hope those votes get in there before week 17, because after week 17, it could get ugly for this offense, and I think he might lose some of his shine. I hope he wins the award. It would be a fun season if the Dolphins offense is breaking records, and he has like some new schematic trick like the cheap motion last year.

I just don't see it maintaining throughout the year. Well, you just painted the picture that he'll have the opportunity. I mean, if they win some of those games on a big stage and finish strong and win the division, yeah. So that could help them if they come through. I'm sort of with you. I don't know that they will in that situation, but the path is there for sure. All right.

The final one, MVP. Again, we talked about this at length on a previous episode. episode. But I told Deonte at the time, I said, yes, and you have the opportunity to change this. It's early August. Once we get right before the season, if you want to change it, you can change it. Patrick Mahomes is your favorite at plus 450. Josh Allen plus 800, C.J. Stroud plus 1,000, Joe Burrow, plus 1,000, and then a bunch of other names. I can't build up the suspense and start with Ruiz. I got to go to Deonti. I think he teased it earlier, but I'm not sure. DeA. was with me on the previous episode, unbeknownst to one another. We both picked Joe Burrow.

I kind of have a feeling I might be a man on an island at this episode ends. Deontay, what do you got? I'm flipping. I'm the kid who committed in September or October. And then when signing day comes around in December, now all of a sudden I'm decommitting. I've got hats on the table that nobody thought would be there late. I'm going Josh Allen. And I'm going. And I'm I think that, you know, Stephen made a strong point about how so much kind of rides on the volatility of Buffalo's roster build and putting so much on Josh Allen's shoulders. I've just got to see it fall apart first before I'm not confident in this. So I'm going with the big production year over, you know, between 30 to 40 total touchdowns, a bunch of rushing yards because they're going to see him have to extend so often on third down for as excited as I may be for Keon Coleman and for as much as I think. that Dalton Kincaid can do even more in this offense that we saw in his rookie campaign.

At the end of the day, this is not an offense that's really built with a bunch of guys that separate against tight coverage that we've seen up to this point. They've got field stretchers. They've got some guys who can create after the catch. But I haven't seen a guy who can really win all along the route tree in this receiving group. And I think that puts a lot on Allen's shoulders. I just think that we're going to see one of those freakish scramble production years, a guy who was able to extend to push the ball down the field.

if they were able to get the kind of early down production out of the run game that they were starting to put together last year and they were able to get into the play action shot game off of it, that's where I think you can get those big, deep downfield throws to Khalil Shakir, to Kiann Coleman. And I think that'll go a long way towards his MVP case. And that's why I'm going with him instead of Joe Burrow. I like it. We parsed out who gets the blame if they fail.

If they win big, there's no doubt who's getting the credit. So there is a path there for Josh Allen. Deante flips. Ruiz, I heard you give a pick. I think it was with Simmons. I don't know if that was sort of your sleepery one or whether that was your actual pick. Who do you have winning the MVP? Bust out the Wolf of Wall Street meme. The I'm not leaving meme. I'm sticking with Matthew Stafford. It was a long shot pick. I didn't make a long shot pick in this one because my long shot is my easy pick in this one. Matthew Stafford's winning an MVP. I've convinced myself that over the past week. I think he's going to have the volume. because the Rams are going to have to throw the ball out for the reasons we talked about with their defense. I think Sean McVeigh, this could be

Sean McVeigh's best offense ever. And not because of talent. I think that 2018 team had more talent, more depth of talent, but I think he has an offensive line. He can do more stuff within the run game, and that's just going to open up more in the play-action pass game,

which I don't think they've mastered since Stafford's gotten there. Like a lot of their success on offense has been based on Stafford's ability in the drop-back passing game. I think this is the first time he's going to get to feel how it felt for Jared Gough to play in this offense while adding his own, his ability, you just give him the ball and he goes out and gets you a bucket.

He's like an ISO score in the NBA. I think my comp on Bill's pod was he's like early 2000s Alan Iverson, where maybe it's not the most efficient thing, but nobody else in the league could get the buckets he gets. The one issue is the wins. You got to win games to win this award. It's a team success award. I think the ramp sneaking into the playoffs with Stafford putting up just

monster volume would be enough, especially if other quarterbacks have down years, which I could see. I could see Lamar kind of taking a step back and also being a victim of voter fatigue. I could see Josh Allen having taken a step back because of everything we talked about with the bills. Patrick Mahomes, I feel like voter fatigue has already set in with him. I think this is Stafford's year. He almost won it when they won the Super Bowl.

I think this is the year he actually does it. And I think he plays well throughout the year and doesn't have that little stretch that he had in 2021 where he lost all his momentum to, win the award. All right. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford, will I flip as well? I was looking at it. We did all our prediction.

So I have four teams winning 12 games. I've got the Chiefs, the Packers, the Texans, and the Bengals. That leaves me with Mahomes, Love, Stroud, and Burrow. Those were the four guys. I was choosing between Mahomes. It's just, yeah, you could pick him every year and it would be a great pick. I didn't pick Mahomes. To me, it came down to Stroud and Burrough.

The Stroud was the guy I was looking at going, I'm with Deonté. I mean, I just look at supporting cast, offensive line, and guy, I think, is really, really good at playing quarterback. And it's like, yes, that's him. The numbers could be off the charts. We like a new character in our life. We got a taste of him last year. Now he ascends to another level.

Maybe the most likable quarterback in the NFL already. Any C.J. Stroud clip, I'm playing. playing it. And I'm like, oh, my guy, this guy is amazing. He loves football, great communicator, great personality, very entertaining. Don't let the NFL ruin you, C.J. Stroud, please, be yourself. We like your personality. Ultimately, I didn't make the flip. I just stuck with Burrow. Jamar Chase, listen, I don't need you practicing. Jamar Chase, I don't need you practicing. Just show up week one. Come on, don't do me dirty like this and miss game check. So, Amarius Mims, it sounds like he, you know, he didn't go on.

are, so he should be available early in the season. I think this could be one of Burroughs better offensive lines. Higgins State, Chase, Higgins, they've played different ways. He was playing in the pre-I don't know if the wrist is good. Don't come at me with the wrist. I don't know about the wrist, okay. If the wrist is bad, this is going to be a stupid pick. I'm hoping the wrist is okay, and that Burroughs going to put up big numbers.

And so he is my pick for MVP. I stuck with it. All right, Ruiz doesn't have a sleeper pick, right? You just had one. I actually do have one. I forgot. Jared Stidham, 401 odds. Apparently, it's listed on the website. It's listed on Fandle for some reason. So I decided that would be my sleeper pick since I didn't have a real one. Same odds as Fred Warner somehow.

I want to see how that season plays out. I need to see the Jared Stiddle MVP season. I think Beat reporters in New England like a couple years ago had visions of that happening. It never came to be. Oh, that was on my radar big time. Oh, my gosh. I don't even think Sean Payton would think this is. possible. And that guy is talking up Zach Wilson. Okay. So Stiddy, as they were calling him in New England,

I believe at the time. If you find a dollar under your couch, you want to throw it on Fandul, 400 to 1, according to Stephen Ruiz, to win MVP. All right, Deonté, are you also going with Jared Stidup? Can't say that I am. Can't say that I am. Coward. But I was caught between, I was caught between two other quarterbacks for my dark horse. I had a non-quarterback that is probably boring to talk about because it's kind of obvious. But the two I was caught between was Jalen Hertz and Jordan Love. And I'm going

Jalen Hertz. And the case I'm laying out is Nick Siriani has already had all the credit for whatever potential success stripped from them based on all the reporting throughout the offseason about the fractured relationship with Jalen Hertz and how much of this offense is going to belong to

Kellen Moore and Jalen Hertz saying, hey, no more Jason Kelsey means that now I'm going to be the guy said in their protections. It's going to be on me to find the open receivers when we get blitzed. And if this offense turns in, again, another top eight, top five type of performance.

And if anything goes wrong with Dallas and this team is able to run away with the NFC east and be one of the top two seeds in the NFC, Jalen Hertz is going to be the centerpiece of why Philadelphia will be considered a contender again. And if he's healthy, you get the rushing production back. And the counting stats, I think,

would be a big piece of why he would be in that conversation. So I'm going Jalen Hertz here. We're going to get a great answer of like exactly who Jalen Hertz is this year. That's what I like about it because Kellynne Moore has coordinated top five offenses with Dak Prescott and those offenses were not nearly as talented or had as good as supporting cast as this one had. Dak Prescott was awesome against the Blitz. He's awesome against the Blitz regardless of the coordinator.

So if it's like we're in week nine, it's like Hertz isn't throwing it over the middle, Hertz has been terrible against the Blitz. This offense is underachieving. We're going to have to reassess what we think of Hertz at the same time. AJ Brown and Devante Smith, man. That's a good place to be. Those are a pretty good place to be against the Blitz, non-blitz, drop eight, whatever. It's good to have those two guys.

Not a hard schedule. So not a hard division. So there's a path to winning a lot of games. So I think that's a good sleeper pick. I settled on this sleeper. And I've just, the more pods we do, the more I've talked myself into them. And that's Trevor Lawrence. And I'm not the guy driving the Trevor Lawrence. Stop yelling. Stop criticizing him. He's amazing. That has not been me historically.

That's us. That's us on the other side. Yeah. That's you. So you can do that. I've been like he's pretty good. But yeah, I would like to see a little bit more at this point. You know, he hasn't matched the expectations from the draft. But man, I've said it a million times. I just feel like the reasons why they were so bad or fell apart so much at the end of last year are explainable to me with the injuries, with the drops, with the turnover. So I don't know that everything is going to get remedied here, but man, he's behind Jared Goff, behind Tua. I just like that, that to me, I thought there was definitely some value there.

They're in the AFC South. It's not the best division. Maybe you can win some games, upset the Texans, and have a nice season for Trevor Lauren. So he's my sleeper at plus 3,000. All right. Those were the picks. Every award we just did. Thank you to Deonté Lee. Thank you to Stephen Ruiz. Christopher Sutton producing and Eduardo Ocampo on social. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ram Gopal. Everyone, have a great Labor Day weekend. When you next hear from us, it'll be game week. We will be talking about games in week one of the NFL season. Looking forward to that. Talk to you soon on the Ringer NFL show.

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