The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Midseason Awards! | The Scramble

Episode Date: November 10, 2022

Sheil is joined by The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz to share their NFL award predictions at the midway point of the season. They give their picks for MVP (1:00), Offensive Player of the Year (23:00), Comeba...ck Player of the Year (37:00), and more. Finally, they close the show by answering some mailbag questions (43:00). Do you have a question for Sheil? Email TheScrambleMailbag@Gmail.com for a chance to have your question answered on the show. Host: Sheil Kapadia Guest: Steven Ruiz Associate Producer: Mike Wargon Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, my name is Kevin Clark. I'm the host of a new football podcast called Slow Newsday. I want to tell you about it. On Mondays, Lindsay Jones and I will recap the weekend in football that was, as well as look ahead to what's next. On Wednesday, the normal Slow Newsday, the thing you've been watching for years, current players, current coaches, current analysts talking about the football world. And on Friday, it's a wild card.
Starting point is 00:00:21 Could be some college football. Could be more pro stuff. It's a video podcast so you can watch it on Spotify or listen to it wherever you get your podcasts. Follow on Spotify. It's Slow Newsday. Welcome to the Scramble. I'm Sheila Kapadia. Coming to you on the Ringer NFL feed every Thursday with the guest.
Starting point is 00:00:51 And today, we get a special one. First time, first time guest to the Scramble, I think the Ringer's very own Stephen. How we doing, my friend? I'm feeling good. I'm feeling good with that introduction, too. This is a special episode with me coming on. Am I a special guest? Yeah, I don't know how we haven't done one.
Starting point is 00:01:08 I think they try to keep us apart, you know? I don't know. It's too long. It's what, week nine. week 10. But I think, you know, we tried a couple weeks ago, and there was a little rearrangement, I think, because of the trade deadline there. They did the special trade deadline show. So, we got bumped back a little bit, but that's okay, because today we get to do a little midseason awards. You know, now that we're nine weeks in, we get the official. All right, this is the
Starting point is 00:01:32 halfway point of the season. You did some great superlatives on the ringer.com earlier this week. These are going to be a little more boring, a little more basic. I don't have your creativity. So we're just going to do the main ones. But I'm excited because you aren't outside the box thinker. You're not afraid to let some takes fly. So I feel like you might surprise me with some of these. That's right. I grew up on Taco Bell and they told us to think outside the butt.
Starting point is 00:01:55 And I've carried that over to my NFL analysis. There you go. You and me both. I've said for years, you know, vegetarians, which the Capadias were, Taco Bell was like the first, you know, fast food chain that was accommodating to us. So it always holds a special place in the Capadia's heart for Sure. All right. Let's start out with the big one. The obvious one. MVP through nine weeks of the season, Stephen Ruiz, who do you got? I think I know who you got, but you tell us. I got Patrick Mahomes, man. I got Patrick Mahomes. I think he's the best quarterback in the league, and I think he's the most valuable right now. The one person that, the one quarterback that I will give that kind of credit to is Lamar Jackson, who I think is asked to do more. And I think he raises the floor.
Starting point is 00:02:41 on his offense and his supporting cast more than Patrick Mahomes does. But I think Patrick Mahomes gets the most out of his supporting cast. He like reaches the ceiling and raises the ceiling on what his supporting cast could be. And I don't know if Lamar Jackson does that for his receivers necessarily. And I will add in that Greg Roman has a hand in that. And I've been very critical of him. But for the reason why I'm picking Mahomes is I think that the key to Kansas City's offensive success this year, and we weren't worried about the offense a little bit because
Starting point is 00:03:11 of Tyree Kill being in Miami and the problems they had last year, obviously, those didn't just go away. The league is still playing those two high coverages that gave him problems. But I think Mahomes has raised his game even beyond how he raised his game last year. We talked so much in the second half about how he was taking the layups and he was taking the checkdowns. He was throwing short underneath the coverages, the deeper coverages. This year, I think he's figured out a way to still do that while also adding just a remarkable
Starting point is 00:03:38 mid-range game that we had. never really seen because he had never had to be that type of quarterback in Kansas City because he always did have Tyree Kill or he had Travis Kelsey just running isolation routes. I think that this offense looks different. And I know in the past that we have given him, or not given him, taken away credit a little bit because he has had Andy Reid, who is this, one of the smartest offensive minds we've seen over the last quarter century and beyond that, actually. But I would argue that Andy Reid isn't really doing him a lot of favors this year.
Starting point is 00:04:14 Like when you turn on the film, it's not like you're seeing these creative play designs that are like leading to wide open receivers downfield. Now, in the red zone, you still see that creativity in short yard situations. They still get awfully creative. But I'm talking down to down the meat and potatoes downs. The ones that actually matter outside the red zone, like in between the 20s, it's all Patrick Mahomes right now.
Starting point is 00:04:37 all Patrick Mahomes. A little bit of Travis Kelsey, but mostly Patrick Malmonds. Yeah, he's my pick also. And honestly, it wasn't that hard. I didn't need to spend too much time on it. You can look at it statistically. And the top four QBs in EPA per pass play are Tua,
Starting point is 00:04:54 Mahomes, Allen, and Hertz. And so you can say, well, you know, why not one of those other guys? It's to me, and I think you tweeted something out to this effect, and it's really how I like to think about it, if you're debating between two guys and looking at the stats or whatever, just swap them, you know, in your head, put one in the other situation and put the other in the first guy's
Starting point is 00:05:14 situation and ask yourself, would the offense be as good, better or worse, in each spot? And like, if you put Patrick Mahomes in that Dolphins offense right now, does anyone really think that they would not be as good? I mean, I would be shocked to hear anyone go on the record and say that. And then you say, well, you put two in that chiefs offense right now, would they be as good? And I would say no. And it's the same thing with the Eagles and Jail and Hurt. So it's what you said.
Starting point is 00:05:39 I mean, we probably take for granted that the chiefs just have these like evolutions it feels like in different versions of themselves every offseason almost. I mean, they lose in the Super Bowl. They come back, totally remake their whole offensive line, which generally you're like not able to do, but they were able to do it. And I think part of that is because of Patrick Mahomes. And then they trade Tyree Kiel. Then they miss Juju Smith-Schuster and it's MVS and it's a different cast of characters.
Starting point is 00:06:04 and we all say, all right, is it really going to be as good? Well, it might take some time. And here we are at the halfway point of the season. And they have the best offense in the NFL statistically. And so he is the reason why. And you mentioned the Andy Reed thing. And as long as they kind of have those two, you sort of feel like not that everything else is interchangeable,
Starting point is 00:06:24 but they have such a better chance of success when they're trying to make some changes in the offseason. And so I have my homes also as one. Now, would you have, Lamar as number two? Like I don't even know how the MVP voting works. Whether, do people put in like five? Do they put in three?
Starting point is 00:06:42 Yeah, I don't know. They should let us run. We're not asked to do it, obviously. I think they just do one, right? Because Tony Dungey famously gave Bobby Wagner the MVP vote that one year. So I'm assuming that it's just one vote. Yeah, I think I would have Lamar, although it's pretty hard to split Lamar and Alan. I think it's easier to look at Allen's mistakes over the last two weeks.
Starting point is 00:07:03 he'd be like, oh, well, now, especially last week when he cost them the, when he may have cost them the game, he admitted to himself, like, he's the reason they lost to the Jets. But Lamar has also had some games where he's kind of thrown, like the Giants game could be put on Lamar. Right. That just happened a month ago instead of last week, so it's not fresh in our minds. So I think it's hard to split hairs between those two, even though Allen does have the better supporting cast, obviously, but he also has significantly better passing numbers.
Starting point is 00:07:30 That's why I don't use the supporting cast argument there. I would with Mahomes versus Hertz and Tua. So they're 2A, 2A, 2B for me. And just to give some credit to Jalen Hertz and Tua, like they play a very integral role in their offenses. And they're part of the reason why they're so successful. Like Jalen Hertz throws a beautiful deep ball. And that puts a lot of constraints on the defense.
Starting point is 00:07:53 He is a force in the run game. He does the RPO stuff on early downs. And then you go to Tua and he's getting the ball out quickly. He's doing the RPO stuff. He's creating passing lanes. Like obviously McDaniels giving them a lot of help with the play designs, but he's also creating passing lanes on his own with his eyes, with the no look passes,
Starting point is 00:08:11 the lookoffs. The thing, the problem is everything I just said about Hertz and Tua applies to Patrick Mahomes. He does the know. He does the lookoffs. He gets involved in the run game. He creates outside of structure of the offense. He throws a beautiful deep ball too.
Starting point is 00:08:26 He does all of those things those guys are doing. Plus he's Patrick Moans. It does all the Patrick Mahomes things that they're not doing. Yeah. No, I agree. Yeah, those guys have had great seasons, and they've certainly exceeded my expectations for both of them. They've got among the best offenses in the NFL statistically.
Starting point is 00:08:41 They're there. And so you don't want to, you know, a lot of quarterbacks have a good supporting cast, and they do a, you know, and they don't do as good of a job. And so they've really maximized the potential of those offenses. I just think I would have Allen number two. I'm with you. I think there's a recency bias probably because of the last couple games for him. But if we're looking at the first half of the season,
Starting point is 00:09:02 He's just had moments, games, possessions, whatever, where he's just, it's felt like he's put the entire team on his back and led them to victory. All right. Number two, coach of the year. And I want to do this one a little different, Stephen. So I wrote down like a bunch of names here that I feel like, you know, you could make a case for all of these guys. And so I'm going to read them out to you. And you tell me after this first round, who do I 100% need to cross off? And then we'll kind of go process of a little mission.
Starting point is 00:09:30 I like it. I like it. Okay. Here are the guys I think you can make the case for. Mike McDaniel, Nick Siriani, Brian Daibald, Kevin O'Connell, Pete Carroll, Mike Ravel, Robert Sala, Sean McDermott, Andy Reed. That's how many did I say. 11.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. I think I said 9.
Starting point is 00:09:55 I'm surprised you didn't say Nathaniel Hackett, you named so many coaches. You know, there was a moment here. I was doing this this morning, and I looked at Mike McCarthy, and I go, well, we can have a fun conversation. You know, the record is good. They won some games without Cooper Rush, but I sort of felt like I knew how that conversation was going to go. Out of the guys I just mentioned, who are the ones in your head?
Starting point is 00:10:18 You're going, you know, get the hell out of here. Sheel, what are you talking about? How is that guy on this list? I'm crossing Andy Reid off. Okay. Just because he has Patrick Mahomes. And, like, it's impressive how they've remade the offense, but I don't think it's all that different, honestly, like on tape.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Like, I think the concepts are mostly the same. Personnel grouping's a little different. So, I mean, Andy Reid's a contender every year, but it's one of those things. Like, the voters aren't going to pick him. Sean McDermott, I don't think, I just don't think it's the year for him just because, like, the defense with the injuries, I don't think, at the end of the year, I don't think we're going to look back and be like, oh, this was like a dominant defense where we're giving Sean McDermott a lot of credit.
Starting point is 00:10:56 I think a lot of the credit's going to just get steered to Josh Allen for that. like he's going to get the MVP love and that might take away from Sean McDermott's coach of the year love. And honestly, after that, it's so hard for me because like there's so many different ways to look at it. Traditionally, if you look back at past winners, this award has been mostly about how much you've exceeded preseason expectations. And based on that standard, you would think Kevin O'Connell is the favorite because we were not expecting the Vikings to be seven and one. I know you were very high on the Vikings and you're looking very smart. for your preseason prediction, but I don't even think you predicted seven and one.
Starting point is 00:11:34 No, and we'll get to the Vikings in the mailbag. It's not like a seven and one where you're, you know, I know Vikings fans are probably tired of hearing this, but it's not like they are a dominant top five team and seven and one. So yeah, that's why I'm not, I'm not honking too much about that preseason prediction because, yeah, I didn't think they're going to be seven and one and kind of get lucky in the way they've gotten lucky. But you're right. I mean, with McDermin and Reed, like they've been good coaches before and so they would almost have like read to win it
Starting point is 00:12:03 they would almost have to either just be undefeated or like Mahomes would have to go down with an injury and they would have to like win the AFC West with Chen any or something like that. They're in that Belichick zone right? Like Belichick never wins the award because it's expected. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:18 Yeah, you expect them. They need to do something exceptional where it's like they've been in the league. We all acknowledge they're really good coaches but they're not doing you know anything specific this year. All right. So that leaves us with Mike McDaniel, Nick Siriani, Brian. Did I say Brian Daiball the first time? I hope I did. Yeah, you did. Okay. Brian Daiball, Kevin O'Connell, Pete, Pete, and Robert Salah. So we've cut it down to- All right. I'm taking Pete. I'm taking Pete. I'm taking Pete. As much as it pains me to take Pete, I think the Seahawks thing is more of a, I don't know how to put it. I think it's more of like, an award where we should reward them for like executive of the year for john schneider i think also you could put p carroll and like those two works so hand in hand that i think you give it to both of them
Starting point is 00:13:07 i'd be more willing to give them that award than coach of the year award because of what they did in the off season and i think that's had more to do with their success than i think like oh they're out coaching and out scheming other teams i just think they had they managed to put together a roster that we didn't realize was as good as it is i think there's a depth to it and a depth to the X's and O's. I just don't think that Carol is going to get enough credit for that, mostly because we are seeing like the offense carry the load, at least we did early on. Maybe if the defense continues on this recent track and like, it takes it to another level in the second act, maybe Carol gets into that discussion for me. But I don't know. I think it's another
Starting point is 00:13:51 thing where Carol's been around for a long time. The success of this team is kind of just, it's like hard to pick out why they've been so successful outside of Gino Smith, obviously. And then compared to the other guys, I don't think the results are as surprising. Like, we're surprised that the Giants are where they are. We're kind of surprised that the Jets are where they're at. We're really surprised about the Vikings. I don't think Pete has that going for him. It's so funny because this has to do with kind of what you just mentioned.
Starting point is 00:14:20 It's like, in your own head, what were your expectations for a team going into the season? Like, that's really what it comes down to. And so you're like, I think we had very different expectations for the Seahawks. I remember listening to you in Solack on a preseason pod and you're both. I think the Seahawks offense can be better than everyone expects. And I was like, all right, I either have to tweet at these guys or they're on the pod with them and tell them they're nuts. And boy, was I wrong. So Pete Carroll's actually my choice for the coach of the year at the halfway point.
Starting point is 00:14:49 So what you said is true about, you know, separating it from, well, were these players just better than anyone thought? or did they develop them? I mean, I could easily make the case. No, yeah. A guy like Euchenna Nuwosu, anybody could have had him in free agency, and he goes to Seattle, and you're like, all right, that's a nice signing.
Starting point is 00:15:07 I don't know if it's a great signing, and he's been fantastic for him. I mean, to start two rookie offensive tackles, and then to start rookie cornerbacks, and to be six and three, I mean, at those positions, like, that doesn't happen in the NFL, where you're just like these premium positions,
Starting point is 00:15:21 plug in rookies, and they're going to be good right away. And so I have to give the coaching staff credit for that, for developing those young players at such key spots. And if that didn't happen, then they wouldn't be this good. And then the Gino Smith thing, I mean, I was laughing at them with the Gino Smith Drewlock quarterback competition. You saw it more than you and Greg Rosenthal, the leader. But not like this. I'm not taking this much credit. Okay. All right. Yeah, this is, I don't know. I mean, it's really on another level. And one thing I love about watching Gino now is
Starting point is 00:15:51 like how many quarterbacks does it feel like the quarterback has like this, this type of understanding of exactly what's supposed to happen on every play in the offense they play for. He knows the answers. It feels like every snap. And so I think he deserves credit for that, but the coaching deserves credit for it too. And so young players improving. I mean, the defense is so much better now than it was the first two, three weeks of the season. I think that's coaching. I think the culture where like, you know, not, not, I joke with Solek that I don't know if I'm supposed to say vibes on every ringer pot or not. I feel too old, but the vibes are there with the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:16:28 I mean, they're fun to watch. Yeah, yeah, every week, it just feels like the feeling there is good. And so they're legit. I mean, they're six and three. They're fifth in DVOA. You look at any of the advanced metrics, like it's not fluky at all what's going on there. And so to trade Russell Wilson, lean on Gino Smith and do the job he's done, he is actually my choice.
Starting point is 00:16:48 But I understand your point then. Now, what was your point for crossing off Rable? I just think the second half isn't going to go as well for the Titans. There's a lot of underlying numbers that suggest that their record is a fluke, unlike Seattle's. And I think we might see that play out over the course of the season. Now, I'm not taking anything away from Vrable. I think Vrable is one of the more impressive coaches over the last couple of years now. And when you watch that defense play every week, like, I say this about Bill Belichick.
Starting point is 00:17:17 Like, I think I know a little bit about football, but like I'm not, I don't have a coach's understanding of it. like I can't watch a game plan and always know why they're calling certain plays. But I think with the best coaches, you can do that. You can see what the plan is. You could see why they are calling that play. And I think with the Titans, I don't want to give all the credit to Mike Frable. I think Jim Schwartz and Shane Bowen have obviously have a hand in this. But I think when you watch their defense, like all of their play calls are just, you could see the rhyme or reason.
Starting point is 00:17:47 You could see why they're calling it. And they usually work. And I think that what they're doing with this collection of talent, which I don't think is very impressive, is amazing. This is the Patriots dynasty, but instead of an elite quarterback, you have an elite running back, and that's the difference in, like, postseason results.
Starting point is 00:18:03 But regular season results, it's the same as the Patriots. You always know they're going to get the most out of their talent. They're going to win games that they're just going to let other teams give away games that they're going to take advantage because they're going to always do the smart thing. That's great coaching. It's just that that type of coaching doesn't always get rewarded by this process.
Starting point is 00:18:22 And admittedly, when I'm answering this question, I'm trying to get into the mind of voters. Like, I think Pete deserves that consideration you gave him. My pick for this award, though, is Mike McDaniel. Okay. He was two on my list. And I know there has been some pushback because when Tua was out of the out with a concussion, the offense wasn't there. They were losing games. They lost all the games.
Starting point is 00:18:43 He didn't finish. But that, it's, I think that's harsh to hold that against Mike McDaniel because you look back at that stretch. Tua starts the first game doesn't finish the second game or doesn't finish the game. So Mike and Daniel crafted this game plan to attack a team with having a certain quarterback in mind. That quarterback goes out. He has to throw that game plan out on the fly. I'm not going to take away from him for that for losing that Bengals game. Next week he loses a quarter, he loses Teddy Bridgewater on what was it like the first play, first attempt.
Starting point is 00:19:13 Yeah. And now he has to call, he put together a game plan for Teddy Bridgewater, which is vastly different from the game plan you put together for Tua. But now he has to. the call plays for Skyler Thompson, a rookie, that's going to be a totally different game plan. And then the next week, Skyler Thompson, he crafts a game plan for him. He goes out early. Now it's Teddy Bridgewater again. Another court.
Starting point is 00:19:31 Like, I'm not taking credit away from him for that. And then you look at the film of these games. I know, like, Dolphins fans are going to accuse me of steering credit away from Tua. But my God, the windows are unlike anything I've ever seen. And I think the thing that he doesn't get credit for, Mike McDaniel, I'm talking about, is how wide open the pockets are. People have talked about the separation with the receivers, but look at those pockets. Tua is throwing from a parking lot, like a stadium parking lot at times.
Starting point is 00:20:01 It really reminds me of Derek Carr's quote unquote MVP season in I think it was 2016, where the Raiders' offensive line was just so dominant. And he had all the time in the world that it hid his main problem. What's Derek Carr's main problem? Creating under pressure. What's Tua's main problem, at least in my opinion, based off of like last year's film. We haven't really seen it this year is creating under pressure. And when the pocket is tight around him, he panics. We haven't had to worry about it in part because of the offensive
Starting point is 00:20:29 design. Now, Tua has played a role in that. He gets rid of the ball quickly before the pressure can get home. But I think it's hard to avoid pressure and create as big of pockets that he's enjoyed without schematic help. And I think McDaniel has influenced every single aspect of that offense and gotten the most out of all of the talent. Yeah, absolutely. I had him as number two, like I said, and it wasn't a clear cut with Carol, but it's for all the reasons you said,
Starting point is 00:20:57 like if you can get a coach who just has the offensive, like knows how to maximize the potential of the offensive pieces he has, that's one of the most valuable things in the NFL. And I was crushing that Tyreek Hill trade. I was, you know, another thing I was very wrong about in the preseason. I was like, yeah, Tyreek Hill is going to leave Mahomes and Andy Reed, and he's going to be a better player. Okay, I'll believe it when I see it.
Starting point is 00:21:20 And guess what? Tyree Kill left Mahomes and Reed and he's been a better player. I mean, Tua is first, like I said, in EPA per pass play, they have a top five offense with all those quarterback injuries that you just mentioned that are like in-game type things where it's not, hey, we get a week to build a game playing around this guy and help him get practice reps. It's happening on the fly and they still have a top five offense. And so I think McDaniel absolutely is in the running and he might be the front runner right now, given what we talked about voters and hey, it's a first time head coach and team that surpasses
Starting point is 00:21:52 expectation. So I had Carol one, McDaniel two, and then I think there's a strong case for Siriani and Dayball. I mean, Seriani, they're just 8-0. A lot of the stuff that applies to McDaniel is probably similar to Siriani, although he's got, you know, probably more talent just when you look at the offensive line, but still 8-0 is 8-0 and they pass every advanced metric where it's not fluky. And then dayball, it's just, Like, you know, no one expected this team to be six and two. They've maximized the talent offensively, even though it's not a great offense. They've run Daniel Jones more.
Starting point is 00:22:26 They've done more stuff to give themselves a shot in some of these games. And so I think he deserves credit. And then O'Connell, seven and one. And even Sala. I mean, Sala is a defensive-minded head coach. Their defense sucked last year. They were crushed by injuries. We went into this season saying, all right, you have some talent now.
Starting point is 00:22:42 What's it going to look like? And the defense has been very good. And they've been six and three. Have they printed out? like are there is there like jets off you know second hand merchandise that just says like receipts or like Robert receipts or something I mean I feel like I would even I'm not a Jets fan I feel like I would buy some of those and by the way if you if you are a Jets fan get on that now before like the regression hits because I think the regression is eventually going to hit so you want to sell them
Starting point is 00:23:05 now because you're not going to be able to sell them in December listen as a fellow that could come back to bite me that could come back to bite me as a fellow bald man like Robert Salah. If you get me his shiny bald head on a t-shirt, Robert receipts, and it's a night, you know, I like the soft material for the t-shirt. I'm absolutely buying it right now. Maybe you should do it. By the way, that's not a, that's not a, like, I'm not saying anything about Sala. I think Sala has been really good this year with that defense. That's a Zach Wilson comment I just made. There you go. You, you certainly could be right there. I like giving people ideas and work to do, Stephen, I don't like doing it.
Starting point is 00:23:44 You're an ideas, man. Yeah, I'm an ideas, man. So, all right, let's get to, that was a good coach of the year discussion. All right, let's move on. Offensive player of the year, I don't know what this really is. I don't know that anyone really knows what this is.
Starting point is 00:23:57 Who do you have for this award? My answer is kind of contingent on like, what happens with Lamar Jackson? Because if Lamar Jackson wins MVP, then I give this award to Tyree Hill. But if Lamar Jackson doesn't get MVP, I would make the argument that he is offensive player of the year. I think he's a one-man-on-old.
Starting point is 00:24:13 offense. He's the only reason that Baltimore offense, which is doing pretty well in like the advanced metrics is even viable, much less thriving, if you can call it that. I do think the advanced metrics are little, I don't think they're really representing the offense's true talent level. Like if you, if that offense had four minutes to go get a touchdown in the fourth quarter, would I trust it to go get that touchdown? No, I would not because the passing game. Good point. But, The results are there, and I think they're holy, wholly, wholly contingent on Lamar Jackson. Like, everything that works with that offense has to do with Lamar Jackson. That game on Monday night, it was one of the more impressive.
Starting point is 00:24:55 I know the stats didn't necessarily show it, but it was one of the more impressive quarterback performances I've ever seen. Like, everything was hard. The run game wasn't working unless Lamar Jackson was reading a defender. The passing game, every pass seemed tightly contested or Lamar had to move around to create angles. I think he's the offensive player of the year every year. Honestly, he's the only one-man offense in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:25:18 But Tyree kills, I mean, the record-breaking numbers, I think he's a shoe-in for this award, which has basically become the best non-quarterback, basically is what it's become, the non-MVPs, whoever, like, second. And he deserves that. Like, he's altered this. He alters what defenses can do against you. We saw that in Kansas City when he was there.
Starting point is 00:25:38 I think he's taking it to another level. Thanks to McDaniel, thanks to Tua's quick release and his ability to operate the RPO's. But I would argue, like, even with these record-breaking numbers, he probably should have even better numbers with, like, the underthrows he's dealt with, not just with TWA, but with the other quarterbacks. And I know people want to say, oh, yeah, the offense wasn't doing so hot without Tua, and they obviously lost the games. Tyree Kill had 177 receiving yards against the Vikings,
Starting point is 00:26:09 and Tua did not play in that game. That was a mixture of Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson, and he went for 177. I think that's his second biggest total of the season. I don't think this is contingent on quarterback play. That was the big concern, right, when they made the trade. Oh, he's going from Patrick Mahomes to, it depends on your view of Tua.
Starting point is 00:26:30 An average quarterback was how he was probably viewed by the most optimistic people during the offseason. and look what he's done. He's done even better. He's on pace to Shatter Records. Just an amazing player. And I would have no problem giving him this award over Lamar Jackson even. And I think if there's one MVP candidate on the Miami roster,
Starting point is 00:26:51 I think it's him over to it, to be honest. I agree with that. Yeah, I think Tyree Kill, you look at, I mean, he's on pace for 2085 receiving yards. He has 237 more receiving yards than any other player. So sometimes you look at it and you're like, well, is it just a weird season where there's a lot of, no, he is like outpacing some really good wide receivers. He's carrying that offense. He's my pick. I think he's the overwhelming favorite to win that award. Like unless he just has some major drop-off or injury or Tua goes down or something weird happens with the dolphins, I think he's going to win that award. Your point about Lamar is a good one. I mean, his rushing numbers this year are ridiculous. I mean, he's eight. He's eight. He's eight. in the NFL with 635 rushing yards, but he's averaging 7.4 yards per carry. And so I looked in True Media's database. It goes back to 2000. There have been 1,311 players who have had at least
Starting point is 00:27:50 75 rushes in a season. Among that group, Lamar's current season ranks fourth in yards per carry, 7.4 yards per carry. I don't know if you saw my tweet or not. Do you want to guess any of the players in front of it. I did see the tweet. So I would be, I would be cheating. Okay. I know Michael Vicks looked real smart. I could have just lied and made myself look smarter, but I saw the tweet. I never log off. What kind of question is that? Of course, I saw the tweet. I see all the tweets. I see all the tweets. I should, I should know. I hope you don't check it while we're doing a pod like Solac does. I mean, I have to yell at it. No, I don't. I've seen Solac tweet during a pod before. I was just like mid mid-rant too sometimes. It's amazing. You have some common courtesy, some common
Starting point is 00:28:32 respect for your fellow podcaster, which I appreciate it. And I would add to that to that stat. Like, it's not like, I feel like quarterback rushing stats tend to get inflated because they usually come on scrambles. But Lamar is like, he's, a lot of his carries are design runs. Yes. And then I'll also add, it was kind of funny like earlier in the year. We talked about, and Greg Roman talked about it actually, adding new layers to the
Starting point is 00:28:54 offense and how they worked on that during the off season. And one of the things they added early on, at least, was the under center stuff, which we had never seen in the past. They tried to do the under center stuff. They couldn't run the under center stuff. Why couldn't they run from under center? Because Lamar Jackson was not a threat to keep the ball on the option. I know we give so much credit to Greg Roman for designing this run game,
Starting point is 00:29:15 but I really think it's all dependent on Lamar Jackson. You put Tyrod Taylor back there. It's a little more mediocre like we saw in Buffalo when that offensive line fell off. Yeah, there's no doubt. For those who do sign off of Twitter or don't have Twitter, more respect to you, Michael Vic has the top three seasons in yards per, yards per carry. So Michael Vick still, you know, ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:29:36 Go, go, young listeners. Go, go watch the YouTube highlights. He was still getting it done. All right. Defensive player of the year. Stephen, who do you got? I'm going Michael Parsons. I feel like that's the chalk pick.
Starting point is 00:29:50 That's the obvious pick. But I think it's the obvious pick for a reason. And I would say that, like, Dan Quinn is getting head coached love, which he deserves. and he's getting a lot of like, he's getting celebrated for this scheme that he's put together. I don't think it's like all that complex. Like,
Starting point is 00:30:05 I think there's an illusion of complexity because Michael Parsons is a guy that you could move to different positions. You're like, oh, he's moving around Michael Parsons. That's, that's pretty innovative. But no,
Starting point is 00:30:14 they're playing like cover three and cover one. And then they're mixing in Tampa two more often this year. Like, it's not like this. This is like a regular NFL defense. And they're using a lot of stunts to help the pass rush. This is like a regular defense. that looks a lot better and looks a lot more exotic just because Michael Parsons.
Starting point is 00:30:31 And I think for that alone, including the production, makes him the favorite for me. But then you also consider where he's making an impact. He's a pass rusher. But when he drops into coverage, he's not like bad at it. He's pretty good at it. So he's contributing to the two most important phases of defense. Maybe he's not the run defender that you'd want him to be at this point. But he is probably the most disruptive past defender in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:30:57 right now. Now, I will say, Aaron Donald can win this award any year he plays, but I think that his production is kind of being stunted by his defensive coordinator and how the Rams are playing, choosing to play defense this year. And if they made a switch, I would
Starting point is 00:31:15 pick Aaron Donald to win this award because I think he deserves it. I think he deserves it every single time because he is the most dominant force in the NFL. Rahe-Morris is just kind of hiding it right now. The top five favorites right now for fan duel just in terms of the gambling odds, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Matthew, Judon, and Aaron Donald. So the top four, I guess, are those for you. I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:31:38 I have Parsons. I mean, he is top five in sacks, hits, pressures. Brandon Thorne has a terrific substack trench warfare where he watches every sack on film and kind of grades them. And Parsons is first. In Sacks score, he is the most high-quality sack. So Matthew Judon is leading the NFL with 11 and a half sacks, but he doesn't have the same high quality ones. His are sometimes cleanup sacks or cover sacks.
Starting point is 00:32:04 And, you know, I don't think anyone would say you swap those two out and, you know, or any team would really want Judon over Parsons just based on this season. So I think. Shout out Chris Jones. Chris Jones. I feel like he deserves a little more love. I think he's giving Kansas City exactly what they need in the interior of that pass. like he's providing pass rush. I think he has six sacks.
Starting point is 00:32:27 He's providing really good run defense, which wasn't always a thing with him early in his career. Like, I would put him on that list ahead of like a Matthew Judon even. And maybe even, maybe even like Miles Garrett. Because I think what he's been to that defense is really important. And I would give Quinn and Williams,
Starting point is 00:32:46 my shout out. Oh, yeah, another one. Yeah. Similar reason. Yeah. I mean, I think those guys deserve recognition. And if you were going not, defensive. What about a Pat Sertan? I mean, they're not getting a lot of love, but is, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:33:00 or would you say, well, is he better than Jalen Ramsey usage, those things? But I think he's having a phenomenal season as well. Yeah, I would put Jalen Ramsey in that same category as Aaron Donald, where playing quarters every, every snap isn't going to highlight his strengths. Okay. There you go. All right. Let's zoom through these last three because I've, I've been spending too much time on these categories. Offensive rookie of the year, it feels like it's a two-horse race between Damien Pierce and Kenneth Walker,
Starting point is 00:33:31 or do you have somebody off the board? I'm going off board. I think it's Chris Olave. I think Chris Olivae has been the best rookie, but I understand why those two are getting the love over Chris Olive, just because what's going on with the Saints. It's going to end up being Kenneth Walker, I think. I think the Seahawks offense has created an environment
Starting point is 00:33:49 for him to thrive, and I think he's a special player, Like the way he moves just looks different. He stands out when you watch them on film or just when you're watching the games on Sundays. He's a deserving candidate. I would still give it to Chris Olavé. I think he's the best player on this list. I think he's performed at a high level.
Starting point is 00:34:08 If you look at like the per route metrics, he's like already a top 10 receiver. I would give it to him, but I think the voters are going to go to the two running backs. And if I had a pick between those two, both great players. I'm not taking anything away from Pierce. but Walker has the narrative. Yeah, I went with Pierce, you're right. It's very close. I mean, even statistically,
Starting point is 00:34:27 it's very close between those two, regardless of what you look at rushing yards, yards per carry. Pierce has like a higher success rate, but Walker is more of a home run hitter. They both produce explosive plays. I feel like the Texans just deserve something. You know,
Starting point is 00:34:42 they haven't really had a reason to watch or pay attention to their team. And he's a fun player. Damien Pierce is a really fun player. I think we all knew that when he came out of the draft. It was just a matter of, well, he didn't, you know, carry a big workload in college. Will he do so in the NFL? But I like watching him play a lot.
Starting point is 00:34:58 Walker is a really fun player also and has saved them in some respects with Rashad Penny going down and him just stepping in and being awesome right away. So I think those are all good choices. Defensive rookie of the air. You got to be going sauce, right? Oh, yeah. No, I'm going sauce. I'm going sauce.
Starting point is 00:35:16 Just a complete football player. I tweeted out on Sunday. I think it was Sunday. I think he's already a top 20 defender in this league. And it's not just because of the coverage stuff. I think he's a willing and able tackler in the run game, which matters a lot when you're playing zone defense. And if you're playing some cover two,
Starting point is 00:35:33 you're like the quarterback needs to tackle. That's a big deal. Like with how defenses are going now where teams are playing more too high, that means teams are going to be attacking the edge with the run game and your corners better be able to tackle. Sauce Gardner can do that and has been doing it for the Jets. I think he's a huge, huge reason. maybe the biggest reason outside of Quinn and Williams
Starting point is 00:35:52 why the Jets defense has been so good. Yeah, honestly, you could probably, I mean, that defensive player of the year conversation, like if someone, you know, if you wanted to get some views, I know where you're going, just say it. On your video, I mean, you could put Sauce Gardner in that conversation right now, I think. I mean, he has been a shutdown, like you mentioned,
Starting point is 00:36:14 complete number one cornerback for a top five defense in the NFL. So I don't think that would be crazy to have that conversation that he deserves at least a mention in there. Yeah. And like Tariq Wulin obviously has had a fantastic year and has kind of come out of nowhere, although he did have a strong preseason. I think the highs are a lot higher. The highlight real is just because of his athleticism are going to be more impressive. But I think there are some down-to-down mistakes that you're not seen if you're not watching the film. I think he's he's learning.
Starting point is 00:36:47 He's a raw player. he's being molded by Pete Carroll, which is a fantastic coach to have when you're a DB. I just think down-to-down sauce has been a better player. I think Woolen might have a higher ceiling. I don't know if he's going to reach it, but that's the tiebreaker between those two players, is down-to-down consistency and then work in the run game.
Starting point is 00:37:09 Yeah, makes sense. All right. Last one, comeback player of the year. Who do you have? I mean, I think Gino is the favorite. the odds on favorite, but like, what is Gino coming back from NFL racial bias, not giving him a chance to play quarterback? I don't know what he's coming back, but if he qualifies, I think he's the obvious pick.
Starting point is 00:37:30 I would also put Sacon up there. I know he's a running back and the nerds are going to be up in arms, positional value. But man, it's just been fun to watch. And sometimes football is about like having fun watching it. And Sakeon, he's been amazing. He's been what we thought he would be when he came out and what we never. really saw when he didn't have the best offensive coordinators, mind you.
Starting point is 00:37:53 It's a little easier for your talents to be highlighted when Jason Garrett isn't calling your plays in 2021. But he's also been like kind of the key to that offense and the offense, while not great, not good, even, has still, you know, participated. They've done their part in the games. They've done their part in the wins. They've played they've played football that complements the defense. So I'm willing to give Sequin some love if you want to come up with a different definition for the award. I don't think, I don't know if Gino qualifies under what my definition would be, but if he qualifies under what the voters think the award is for, then it's, it's got to be Gino. That's why it's so weird.
Starting point is 00:38:33 Yeah, I'm with you. I have no idea what people are coming back from. Like, I remember doing the preseason show and it was like Alan Robinson. Like, what is Alan Robinson coming back from terrible quarterback play? And now it looks like, well, that wasn't really the issue. issue, but I don't know how you define what someone's coming back from. I agree with you. Those were the two names I had written down, but I had a different choice. And I don't know if I'm missing something, and I probably am because I was looking at FanDuel and this guy wasn't even listed.
Starting point is 00:38:59 Why isn't Sedarius Smith the comeback player of the year? I mean, he played, is it because, so he played in one regular, he played in week one last year. And then he came back and he played in one playoff game. So I don't know if that disqualifies him. Like he already came back for that one playoff game for the Packers before he became a free agent. But Zadarius Smith has been awesome this season. He's got eight and a half sacks. He's top five quarterback hits. He's number one in pressures. He's top five in Brandon Thorne's sack score. He's got more high quality sacks than anyone except for Michael Parsons. Am I missing something? Do you think it's because he came back for the playoffs that he doesn't qualify? Do you think our friends at Fanduals? Just, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:39 no one mentions Daria Smith. And by the time we finish this podcast, he'll be up there. What's going on with that? I think it's the second one. I honestly think I think it's just playing with the Vikings. They've kind of been, they're seven and one, but they've been anonymous, kind of. There's like the most anonymous seven and one team that I've ever seen. And maybe I'm just not paying attention to the Vikings. And honestly, I don't, I don't make it a point to tune into the Vikings games every Sundays. I'm not going to lie. But that's the only explanation because I'm right there with you. Like, obviously, he was a big loss for the Packers last year. I remember when he went down or when it was like, was like, this is going to be a long-term injury. That was a big deal.
Starting point is 00:40:13 The year before, obviously there was, there was like the controversy or whatever where he didn't get, what was it, a Pro Bowl and he had the message on his shirt after he got the sack. Yeah. I think he should be up there. I don't know why. I think it's a narrative thing. And I don't necessarily put that on Fandul or the odds makers. I just think it's like media coverage. He's not getting it.
Starting point is 00:40:33 He's not going to get the votes. There you go. The scramble on the Ringer NFL feed is putting Zadarius Smith on the radar for a comeback player of the year. It's an interesting what if, too, that. You remember the Ravens thought they had him, and then there was some misunderstanding in the offseason, and then he signed with the Vikings. Man, you had Zedarius Smith, the way he's playing now to that defense. It really, they could be even better, but obviously he's helping that Vikings defense.
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Starting point is 00:43:06 1,800-5-22-4-70-0 in Wyoming, or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Question number one, Stephen, this one doesn't even have a name because when I put the tweet out that said, hey, Stephen Ruiz is joining the show and what mailbag questions do you have for him. As you might guess, I have a lot of Eagles followers, and there were just all these questions about why does Stephen hate Jalen Hertz? What did Jalen Hertz do to Stephen? And we actually talked about this on the Ringers Philly Special, Solac, and I, because we got
Starting point is 00:43:45 questions about Hertz. And so I pulled up your rankings to be this week. And I said, all right, you know, he must have really been clowning Jailen Hertz. And he was 10. And I'm like, 10 seems kind of where about where he should be. So I'm sure you've heard the, you know, Eagles fans, they're not afraid to speak their minds. What kind of feedback have you heard about Hertz? Where do you, you know, you have him 10th? Did you think about having him higher or lower? Do you think some of the critiques you've received are fair? Or is it just irrational people tweeting at you. I don't want to call them
Starting point is 00:44:16 irrational. I think they're just fans. Like I say, I get why you would have this reaction to it. I understand it. And I just think that I try to do my quarterback rankings
Starting point is 00:44:27 a little differently than other people. I'm not saying it's like the better way to do it. It's just like my quarterback rankings, which I don't hide. Like I explain the methodology is based on not necessarily how they're playing,
Starting point is 00:44:40 but what I think their individual skill set is. And I, do, in order for there to be movement week to week, I do take into account how they are playing, like what form they're in. And I think that's the difference. So they see Jalen Hertz. I think I was higher on Jalen Hertz than most people coming into the season. So I think he started higher. So the climb hasn't been as dramatic or as obvious for me, just because I already started started with a higher opinion of him. So this isn't necessarily a surprise that he's doing this. But my explanation for why he isn't higher, why he's in like the top five, which is the main
Starting point is 00:45:16 argument I get is he should be in the top five. Look at his production. They are eight and no. He's an MVP candidate, all that. I mean, I watch the film every week and I see issues. I see ball placement issues. I see him missing receivers downfield. I don't think he sees the field as well as he will be able to see it when he gets more experience. I just don't, I think he's a top, top ten quarterback is very good. And when you put a top 10 quarterback in that type of offense, that type of environment, I think these are the results you should expect. I don't know what to tell you. I don't think he's a better quarterback than Dak Prescott.
Starting point is 00:45:50 I don't think he's a better quarterback than Aaron Rogers. Don't think he's better than Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Justin Hurd. I think if you polled NFL GMs and asked them which quarterback they would want, they would take those guys way ahead of him, maybe not like Tom Brady because he's 45. But in a one-off situation, I just think those guys are better quarterbacks. They're just in different situations. Yeah, I looked at the rankings. And so I, you know, we, we ranked them ourselves.
Starting point is 00:46:14 And I made the case you could probably, I think you could bump him up like a couple spots. Like if someone had him at eighth, I feel like that would be reasonable. I think you're a little higher on like I feel. So are you sure that if you swapped Lamar Jackson with Jalen Hertz in this offense, that the offense would be better? The Eagles offense? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:33 Oh, yeah. I think the punter might have only punted five times this season. If Lamar Jackson's on that offense, that running game would might be historic with him. I know their offensive line has kind of been like shuffled, shuffled around, but like when healthy, it's good. But we've never seen Lamar Jackson with these types of receivers.
Starting point is 00:46:49 And I think these, I think people get some things wrong about how supporting casts and how quarterbacks kind of get reactions out of defenses. Like, like, for instance, last year, a lot of people were talking about Lamar getting blitzed a lot. And they were like,
Starting point is 00:47:02 well, Lamar has to figure this out. He has to become, be able to beat those blitzes. They weren't blitzing Lamar because of Lamar. They were blitzing Lamar because they didn't have to worry about anybody on the outside beating them when I won. You're not going to be like, oh, I'm not going to send the zero blitz because
Starting point is 00:47:17 Devin Duvernais out there. What are we going to do about Devin Duverne? And I think, like, what Jalen hurts is he has all these protections built into the offense, into the personnel, into the scheme even, that kind of hide his weaknesses. But if you are watching the film with a discerning eye, they jump off the screen. It's not even like I'm cherry picking here. I go back to the first drive against the Steelers. I don't know if he threw a good pass that first drive. And he went like, what, like four for six for like 60 yards and a touchdown on it?
Starting point is 00:47:49 I think that's emblematic of Jalen Hertz's production as a season. Very good player. Helps the scheme a little bit with his mobility. But he is the product of what's around him more so, or like his production is the product of what's around him, more so than his own individual talent. But that said, I think he's an average quarterback above average. which is a lot better than people expected even coming into the season. I think I could make the case that with this offense,
Starting point is 00:48:15 Jalen Hertz throws a more accurate and a better deep ball, like those go balls you're mentioning, when you just take the one-on-ones on the outside, he obviously has better options than Lamar Jackson. And I think you could make the case that this year, he's missed fewer throws than Lamar Jackson, just in terms of accuracy. Like, I think Lamar, like, processes and knows where to go with the ball,
Starting point is 00:48:36 but even in that game Monday night, like he will just miss some. throws where I think with Hertz, it's probably more he leaves, plays on the field. He does miss throws, but I think his accuracy has been better than Lamar this year. And the other thing is, I feel like Hertz when he decides to, you know, you mentioned the thing with Jackson and a lot of his runs, his production has been off design runs, option runs, which is true. I think Hertz, in terms of the passing game, what he brings you as a scrambler. Like when he decides he's taking off, and you might say, oh, look, look at the film, there's somebody here. He could
Starting point is 00:49:06 have gotten rid of the ball. He could have pulled the trigger. But when he's, he's very decisive. Like, Lamar is more creative and brings those highlight plays where he might turn around or spin around and make two people miss. And then you're like, oh my gosh, I've never seen anybody do that. Hurt. It's more just like, all right, I don't see it. I'm off seven yards. And I feel like that's been a big advantage to the Eagles offense. So I'm not sure. I'm not sure that the Eagles offense would be better or significantly better if you swap them out this year. But I do 100% agree with your assessment that Hurt is in a much better. situation, support and cast, all those things, then Lamar Jackson this year. So my bottom line is
Starting point is 00:49:44 I didn't have an issue with your ranking. I think that is perfectly fair. I think, you know, anywhere between like seven and 12, you can probably make the case. I mean, I was looking at your rankings going, if Trevor Lawrence was in this offense, are we sure it wouldn't be as good? I mean, you could probably make the case that it would be as good this year. So my favorite thing has been getting pushback from Eagles fans. And then they like tag Solac in the push in the, in the reply to me. And I'm like, I'm higher on the Eagles than Solek. I don't know if you guys realize this or if you guys are listening to what are you saying. He was, he's not high on Jalen Hurty. I don't think he's that high. He bet on the Jaguars against his team. He bet on the Jaguars.
Starting point is 00:50:21 I bet on the Eagles. I'm higher on the Eagles fan Ben Solac. Stop coming after me. Eagles fans. Go after your own. Yeah. Yeah. Solex said he would have him at 11. So there you go. Case and point. You have you, it's on the record. He said it on the ringers Philly special. He had him at 11. and you had him at 10. So you are higher on him than so. All right. Question number two from Stephen. Stephen says,
Starting point is 00:50:43 you broke my heart today. Shield is from our last episode. As a Minnesotan, Minnesota, Minnesotaian, I don't really know how you say that, sorry. And lifelong Vikings fan, I can confirm your hypothesis. Everyone here still assumes that the season will end in embarrassing fashion
Starting point is 00:50:57 to fight my own innate pessimism after each Vikings win. I've been reading and listening to all the smartest NFL writers and podcasters, hoping just one of them will believe in us. as a real Super Bowl contender, and maybe I was high off the Hawkinson news, but I thought maybe you'd be the first to do it today.
Starting point is 00:51:13 I was wrong. So for the mailback, while I'm excited about Hawkinson, I think any hope the Vikings have to win the NFC will come from adjustments made by O'Connell and Donatelle, as well as the player's increased familiarity with their systems. Because it's still year one with this staff, is it reasonable to expect continuous improvement throughout the season such that we could be looking dangerous come playoff time?
Starting point is 00:51:36 please say yes, give me something to believe in. Stephen, I know you said, the Vikings are not appointment viewing for you, and I think I understand that. I mean, there's seven and one. How do you kind of view them the rest of the way? Like, how is the season, how's the second half of the season going to play out for them?
Starting point is 00:51:53 What's the most likely scenario in the playoffs? And is there any scenario where you're like, you know what, they have a higher ceiling than I thought, and they get to the Super Bowl from the NFC? To start, I'm going to say I'm not going to make Stephen happy here. I don't think they're a Super Bowl contender. And shockingly, I don't think T.J. Hawkinson is the one is the missing piece that turns them into one.
Starting point is 00:52:18 But I do think that, I do think that Hawkinson gives them another layer to the office. I think one of the problems they've had, and they, I know they're seven and one, but the offensive results aren't as good as they were a year ago by EPA. And Kirk's not actually isn't playing as well by EPA. And I think the big difference is that they're seeing more too high. They're not seeing cover three. Like Kirk was seeing cover three at a ridiculous rate. It wasn't at a high rate.
Starting point is 00:52:45 It was like a rate that was much higher than most quarterbacks. And then now on early downs specifically, they're seeing a lot more cover four. They're seeing a lot more cover two. And obviously, Davin Cook's presence, I think in the past, the run game and how they ran outside zone kind of forced teams out of those looks. But now we're not seen. and I think bringing in Hawkinson, another tight end gives them more
Starting point is 00:53:09 formational and personnel flexibility, and maybe they can figure out a way to get defenses back into cover three and get that play action passing game working at a higher level than it has this year. My one concern with what the mailback question, yes, I think we can assume that the scheme and the players being in it more
Starting point is 00:53:32 will lead to better results here's the problem. Every other, that's the same, that's true for every other coach and every other team. They're all coaching in the second half. They all get time. I don't, why is that exclusive to Kevin O'Connell? And yes, I guess he's saying first year, because he's maybe because he's a first year. It's still football.
Starting point is 00:53:49 It's still football. Like, he's not like installing a new offense even. Like, the offense is new, obviously, new. But it comes from the same coaching tree. So I don't think that it's all that different than what they've run in the past. Yeah, I was looking. I was trying to help. help you, Stephen, you know, I'm not in on the Vikings, but I was like, let me find something
Starting point is 00:54:08 that gives him hope. And man, it's hard to find, honestly. Like, I did this exercise this week where I just looked at every individual, every team's game performance, offensive performance in every game this year. Because I wanted to see, like, do which teams have high ceilings? Like, maybe their overall EPA or DVOA or whatever is bad, but man, they've had three games that are just ridiculous. And so I sorted them and looked at how many offensive performances rank in the 75th percentile or better in terms of EPA per drive for every team. The Vikings have won. It was week five against the bears.
Starting point is 00:54:46 So that high-cealing game, the other teams that have won for a point of reference are the Colts, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Titans, the Bears, and the Rams. That's not the group you necessarily want to be with. teams have zero, the Steelers, commanders, Panthers, and Texans. And then if you look at the teams that have the most, it's the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs, each have five. And so those numbers suggest to me that this is really a high floor, low ceiling offense. Like we have not, we've seen a high ceiling from them in one game this entire year, which is not what you want to see. So there's
Starting point is 00:55:22 not a lot of evidence that they have that other gear to get to. They're four and no in one score games. They're 18th in DVOA. They're 16th in offense, 19th on defense. You mentioned it, Stephen. I didn't realize. I was just looking up Kirk Cousin's numbers before the pod to answer this question. His EPA per pass play is worse than last year. It's tied for his worst as a Viking since he got there for a full season. So like, you know, if there's a narrative that, hey, you know, he's elevated his play or he looks more comfortable in Kevin O'Connell's system or anything like that, like there's no real statistical, analytical film, in my opinion, you know, evidence that that's happening. And so I don't see it with them. I think kind of the conventional
Starting point is 00:56:04 wisdom that they're not as good as their record says there is is actually accurate. In this case, now, having said that, they're seven and one. They're over under for wins now is 11 and a half. So I would just say to Vikings fans, enjoy it. Yeah, enjoy it. You know, this is by you. looking ahead to the Super Bowl. You're seven and one. That's why that's my question with fans. Why isn't just good? Why isn't it never good enough? Like, why do we have to say two is the greatest quarterback of all time in an MVP? Why can't we just be like, oh, two is playing well. This offense is amazing. Why can't we say the Vikings are seven and one and they're exceeding expectations and Kevin O'Connell's doing a good job? Why do we have to go, no, they're Super Bowl contenders?
Starting point is 00:56:42 I don't understand. I'm with you. I have to say, I think you have the, you share the same mindset I do. Like, I think we, you know, if you're a sports fan, I think we overrate championships and underrate, like, don't, I just want like, when I'm watching a team, like, I'm a Phillies fan or, you know, whatever team you watch Sixers. Like, I just want for those two and a half, three hours, hey, I'm glad I spent my time with that team. That was pretty fun. Maybe I got together with friends or family. I like, there's a likeability to the team. Like, it doesn't always have to be about a championship. It's more like, are you happy you're spending time with them, you know, you know, you know. You're investing your financial, emotional resources in the team. Is it worth your while? This Vikings team is worth your while. They're 7-1.
Starting point is 00:57:24 They've won a lot of games. They've won some exciting games. They're going to be in the playoffs. They're probably going to have a top three seed. You get to watch the Packers kind of go down the tubes this year. You're going to win the division. Just enjoy it. You're not going to win the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:57:37 You're probably not going to get to the Super Bowl. But that's okay. You agree, right? Yeah, of course. It could be a lot worse. You could be looking up Sam Darnold injury news, hoping for him to come back. sooner rather than later if you're a Panthers fan.
Starting point is 00:57:49 Trust me, you get a lot worse. There you go. All right. Last one. Garrett asks, who is the most surprising team that has overperformed and the most disappointing team that has underperformed? Who do you have for those till? I was going to say, like, the Vikings are the easy pick,
Starting point is 00:58:06 but I'm going to say the Titans. And we talked about earlier, we talked about this coaching staff. Like, I thought this was going to be the worst team in the NFL. And part of that was the receiving core. And I know, like, Tanna Hill has played well. And then now with Malikin, they haven't, I don't, they didn't even complete a pass to a receiver last game. But that had been an issue even before Malik came in. I don't think that was a Malik issue.
Starting point is 00:58:30 Like, they had the least amount of yards by receivers in the NFL. Like, it was like historic almost. But they just know how to win football games. They know how to do the things that you have to do to win a game. And I don't think they're concerned about, like, maximizing offensive. efficiency. I feel like, and this might be fan fiction and me filling in gaps that aren't really there, but it feels like they treat every individual game as its own thing. And they're like, what do we have to do to win this game? Do we have to run Derek Henry under center 20 times, even though we have a quarterback we can run an option with against Houston?
Starting point is 00:59:06 Sure, we're going to do it any. We're going to do the thing that we think is going to help us win. And then on defense, I've already talked about, like, every pitch is perfect. They're really, there's scheming everyone up. So I'm going to say the Titans. I did not see this coming out anywhere. They're five and three. I don't think it's going to last. I actually think the Jaguars have a chance of coming back and winning that division because they do have two more matchups with the Titans. But five and even five and three so far, my hats off. Like amazing. I'm very surprised that it happened. Yeah, that's a good one. The other teams I had written down jets, dolphins, giants, Vikings and Seahawks. The Jets and Seahawks, I thought were going to be among the worst teams
Starting point is 00:59:43 in the NFL. I thought the Jets defense could be frisky, but I didn't think they'd be able to overcome it on offense. And we'll see if that happens in the second half of the season. It's not like their offense has been good, but, you know, their defense has been good enough to win games. And I mentioned Seahawks are the thing I was most wrong about in the NFL this year. For underperform, the teams I wrote down were the Rams, Bucks, Packers, Broncos, and Colts. I know you were down on the Broncos. You had that nailed. I thought they were going to be a wildcard team. That's not the case. But I would probably go with the Rams if I had to choose one. I mean, I had just had more faith in McVeigh. You know,
Starting point is 01:00:18 he had a top 10 offense in three of four years with Jared Gough. Like, I thought regardless that the offense was going to have a pretty high floor. That hasn't been the case. I mean, they've had a bottom five, bottom 10 offense this season, their margin of victory. They've been outscored by 42 points. That ranks 27th. Like, they've been legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL. And I just thought they were going to have a higher floor than that, even if they weren't a great team this year. Who did you have for the underperforming team? I think the Rams are a good pick
Starting point is 01:00:49 although I was kind of low on them coming in because of the issues with the offensive line and I didn't think Alan Robinson was made sense as a Odell replacement. I didn't think he was like at the part of his career where he would be able to even like replicate the production. I'm going to go with the
Starting point is 01:01:05 bucks actually. They're four and five they're still first place in the division. They're probably going to make the playoffs. But I thought this would be a Super Bowl Super Bowl contender again. I thought I knew the offensive line issues would be a problem, but I thought Tom Brady, if any quarterback's able to overcome offensive line
Starting point is 01:01:21 issues, it's them. I think the receivers haven't been as good as we all expected. We all looked at that receiver depth chart before the season. We're like, holy cow, like, this is one of the deepest receiving cores in the league, even after losing Gronk and Antonio Brown. But
Starting point is 01:01:35 the coaching staff for me has been a massive disappointment. I thought Todd Bowles would have the defense playing better. The defense has It doesn't take in a massive step back, but it's just, it's like not the same experience when you play the Bucks defense as it used to be. The Bucks defense just was scary. The prospect of running on them on first and second down just it didn't make sense. But now you can run on them. I think the secondary without Antoine Winfield doesn't look as good. I don't think Byron Lefich is doing enough to help out Tom Brady in that receiving court, which has been kind of banged up and there's got been guys in and out of the lineup. But really, I think the biggest problem is losing gronk. And I did not realize that it was going to be this big of an issue coming in. But like, it's not just the catches over the middle, which I think have kind of dried up. And that was really where they like hurt teams in the past. But in the run game, he was such a key part of that blocking scheme. They like to run a lot of duo and the tight end plays a big role in
Starting point is 01:02:34 that. Chris Godwin also plays a big role in that as a blocker. And he's been kind of banged up. He's obviously coming back from the ACL. I thought it would look a lot better. the pieces are there, the names are there. This is a roster that looks similar, at least, to the one that made the playoffs last year and won the Super Bowl the year before. But it's like everyone took a step back and is like 5% worse. And we've seen like how that's affected the big picture. And this team is not nearly as good as I thought it would be.
Starting point is 01:03:03 Yeah, bucks are a good one. I had the bucks going to the Super Bowl from the NFC. The Grog point is a good one. I mean, he was their answer not only in the ways you mentioned, but Red Zone, high leverage situation. the trust factor, big games, like all those things, he seemed to have answers for him. And now there are those like three or four snaps a game where it feels like Tom Brady and Mike Evans never played together and just met like in the parking lot five minutes
Starting point is 01:03:25 before kickoff. And, you know, you're going, all right, who was wrong there? They weren't on the same page. And then I thought they'd be able to overcome the offensive line injuries as well. But that's been a factor. So we'll see what they do in the second half of the season. All right. That's going to wrap it up.
Starting point is 01:03:41 Stephen, thank you for joining me. How was your first scramble experience? It was everything I thought it would be. I got to talk about Jalen Hertz in my quarterback rankings. I love talking about Jalen Hertz and my quarterback rankings. I never get a chance to do it on Twitter. Never. There you go.
Starting point is 01:03:57 I mean, do you have anything you want to plug? You have like 400 different things going on, but anything specific that you want the listeners need to check out or you'll be on tomorrow's pod, right? The preview pod. Yeah, check out the preview pod. We're having a lot of fun on the preview pod. it's a blast. And I, you know, we talk X's and O's.
Starting point is 01:04:14 I think if you like football, it's a, it's the pod for you. There you go. The preview pod, the recap pod. He was on the power rankers pod. He's got everything on the ringer.com. And of course, as he said, he never logs off of Twitter. So if you have a question, just fire it his way. I'm sure he would welcome more back and forth, more replies, more mentioned specifically.
Starting point is 01:04:32 I need more that in my life. Specifically about those quarterback rankings. All right. Thanks to Stephen for joining me. That was awesome. Thanks to Mike Wargon for Produce. additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna, Ram Gopal.
Starting point is 01:04:45 Remember, if you want to get a mailbag question in, the scramble mailbag at gmail.com. Send it there, and we will get to it in one of the weeks ahead. Stay tuned tomorrow for Stephen on the preview show, and I will talk to everybody next week.

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