The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 10 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

Sheil and Ben are back to discuss the Week 10 action, which is loaded with some big matchups. There’s a big AFC North matchup between the Ravens and the Browns. Who will come out on top? Will the Lions get back on track as NFC darlings? Plus, Monday morning headlines, bets of the week, long shots, and more! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifitz and Danny Kelly, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Morning. Taking Shield Kapati here, joined by Ben Solac. Week 10, the start of the second half of the NFL season. We're talking about what we're watching this weekend. We're making some picks. We're making some predictions, some long shots, some props, all of that. Solex got his Eagles hoodie on. He's like take advantage of the bye week. You know, you're going to be feeling good about your team this weekend.

I'm the Eagles fan. You feel good about your team every weekend, man. I don't got to worry about that. It's been a nice, nice year, a nice couple of years. There's just the top hoodie in the pile. We were in hoodie season. We were in grab hoodies and go. And today, this was the top one just so happened to be Super Bowl championship Philadelphia Eagles hoodie. What can I say? You know, Eduardo Ocampo's doing a great job with the videos for the show. I feel like there might be a show where we need to get dressed up a little bit. You know, I'll shave, we'll put on a nice shirt or something, and we'll make the videos look good one week. You look disgusted at the thought of that.

I'm just, I think if we do our usual gags while wearing nice clothes, it will look peculiar. These are hats and hoodie behavior. This is a hats and hoodie pot. That's home base. That's where we stand. That's probably true. All right, let's get into it. Let's get into what we're watching here in week 10 in the NFL season.

As always, we start with the headliner. Solac, what is your headliner for this week's slate? Ravens Browns rematch I'm so excited for. I think this is the headlining game for me. There's a couple of good games, a couple of interesting games. But if you remember, Ravens and Browns played in week four, and in that game, the Browns defense was coming off of performance against the Joe Burrow, one-and-a-quarter-calf Bengals coming against the,

early season, no Deonti Johnson Steelers, and coming against the Ryan Tanhill Titans. Those are their first three games of the Browns defense. And they were on pace to put up historic, historic numbers. After three weeks, you had a tweet show where you were like, the three best single game defensive performances this year are all from the Cleveland Browns. Like, they are legitimately pace setting right now defensively. And then they ran into Lamar Jackson and this Ravens team. And what you saw in that game, which I thought was a really important film for both teams, was that the Browns run defense, which, okay, like Jim Schwartz, we're going to put a defensive lineman in one gap.

We're going to put linebackers in every gap. We're going to have at least a body in the box for every single gap, and we're going to play aggressive downhill ball. Well, they started to run into the problem of mobile quarterbacks, how they changed the math, right? And they force you to play option football, and they have to play in space a little bit. You have to worry about the threat of Lamar Jackson.

And when you're playing with those one-gap defensive linemen, you become really liable to double teams. And this Ravens' offensive line sends that game from the entire season has been so good to getting two guys on one guys uprooting a defensive lineman and moving them up field. So they just started to lose on the interior to double teams and lose on the outside to Lamar Jackson. And I thought that was a huge sign for the Ravens' offense, which as we know has really, really blossomed since the beginning of the season. Todd Monk, in the new offensive coordinator, comes in for Greg Roman, we're going to pass the

football, we're going to run with three receivers. And there was a belief, a worry that maybe this would affect the Ravens running game. It would limit the versatility of what they could do. It could take away some of the option stuff just by virtue of not having Those extra tight ends, those unique formations. Against this Brown's team in particular, they did such a good job using preset motion and using players in creative ways to still get to this highly versatile rushing attack. They were 60% defensive success rate, the Browns were against the Ravens. While they were previously, like 75, 80 against the teams they were playing previously,

this game was the first game where somebody got on the Brown's defense. And the Brown's defense has generally like circled the wagons and played well. They've obviously had other tough offense that they've faced. but this was the first team that got him. And when that's a divisional opponent, and it's a quarterback that you used to seeing in Lamar Jackson, and when you were feeling like you were the best thing since sliced bread, and you get embarrassed a little bit, you remember that.

You absolutely do. They got embarrassed at home as well. So that sticks with you. And now the Ravens are leading this division, and the Browns, the entire time, have been staying afloat, staying above 500 on the back of their defense. I think we're going to see a really, really, really emphatic Browns' defensive performance

in this game. I think they're going to come out with a ton of juice, with a ton of aggressiveness, and try to kind of correct the ills of week four where Baltimore got on top of them. In that game, if you remember, Dorian Thompson Robinson was the starter for the Browns. They started the rookie instead of PJ Walker. They wanted to kind of see what he had. A lot of turnovers, short fields, Ravens got ahead, game got out of the Brown's hands. Now it's Deshawn, which obviously Deshawn's not playing well.

But if he's not committing the same turnovers that DTR did, you can keep this thing a slobner and keep it close. I think the Browns want to win a game that way. I think you're going to see the Browns come out with a ton of juice in this rematch against the Ravens. It's a huge game for the Browns. I mean, the Browns here have the Ravens and then they've got the Steelers next week. Like their season could be defined by what they do in the next two weeks. I mean, there's still a long way to go.

It might not be. But I do feel like this is a big stretch for them. Like you said, they've got Watson healthy back on the field. You know, in that game, I didn't think, like, I thought the Brown's defense sort of held their own. Like, it wasn't perfect. I thought that was a Lamar Jackson game. to me. Like that wasn't, and I think we talked about it at the time. Like it wasn't a Todd Munkin game to me. It was like, wow, like if everything's not working that you game plan, that you

schemed during the week, you still have this guy at quarterback that can just create, that can make big plays. And I remember after that game thinking, like, that was more the quarterback than any of the offseason stuff we talked about. I mean, the Ravens had 16 first downs, 296 yards in that game. Now, to your point, like comparatively what the Browns are doing to a lot of other. teams, you know, that's not bad. You don't complain about that for sure. But I didn't think, you know, necessarily they got lit up there. But this is going to be different. I mean, I think now, like in many cases, the Ravens defense is probably better than the Browns defense at this point in time. Now, maybe some of that will get decided this week. They might be the top two defenses

in the NFL. And so I think the other side of the ball is equally as interesting to me. I mean, when you look at what the rapids have done to very well-schemed, well-thought-out offenses at home in the Seahawks and the Lions over the last month of the season, where those teams are just basically out of the game in the middle of the second quarter. And now you look at this Browns offense that, you know, it's okay. Maybe they showed some signs of life last week against the Cardinals. They certainly haven't had any sustained stretches of offensive efficiency. Like, are the Browns going to be able to avoid mistake? stakes on offense and be able to move the football enough to stay in this game.

Not only Deshawn Watts, I think it's a big game for Deshawn Watson. Like if you make that Deshawn Watson trade, now we've debated that at length. But if you're the Browns, you make that trade for a game like this. Like elite defense, big division game on the road. By the way, they lost Jedrick Wills. They're starting left tackle last week. DeWan Jones, they're starting right tackle as of this recording. It has not practiced this week.

You were talking about potentially two backup tackles going to Baltimore against that defense with the Sean Watson. DeWant was only starting because Jack Conklin was out, right? Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Which I like, it's absolutely true. Deshawn's got to play with backup tackles in. Like, oh, that's a big deal.

It absolutely is. Let's not forget that the Browns lost to the Seattle Seahawks when the Seattle Seahawks were playing Jason Peters at left tackle, right? This is good quarterbacks get around this sort of an issue. And that's why, like, Deshawn, you paid him the money. he's got to be good in this game independent of the offensive line problems. This is what good quarterbacks do is they work around, they color in the gaps.

Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to touch on there. There's certain aspects of this game. Maybe you could tell from my tone there that I like that I'll get to later when we make some props, some picks here. Do you have anything later in the show on this game?

Are you leaning one side or the other with a pick here? I'm sorry, I'm nothing in the show. I have Ravens tease down to a pick-um in a few different legs this week. I think that, again, I think you can see this be low scoring, one score the whole way. I agree with you that a lot of week four was a like a Lamar game. To me, that was largely in the passing game.

In the running game, like they had Gus Edwards getting contacted for the first time, like six yards, bass line of scrimmage. I think you're going to see the Ravens run this football a lot. They've got a nice three-headed backfield now. I think it's going to stay low scoring. I think it's going to be slow-paced game. And so six and a half I worry about, but I do think Ravens just are going to be able to control this thing,

trenches-wise, controls thing talent-wise. So teaser-wise, I have the Ravens did a lot of stuff. I'm leaning Ravens as well. I don't have a third lock of the week. It's one of those weeks where I'm going to pick it on the fly. And this game is in the mix there. So I do like the, I know it scares me with as good as the Brown's defense is, that number being six and a half division game.

At the same time, this game screams to me like Ravens are going to get like a defensive touchdown or a turnover in a key spot that's that's really going to help them against that Brown's offense. But we'll talk a little bit more about that game later. All right, my headliner. I'm glad you chose that one. We didn't discuss beforehand, but I had a different one for my headliner. I've got 49ers at Jaguars.

Who knew? This would be, you know, such a big game here in week 10. This is a fun one for many different reasons. I mean, one is you look at the 49ers offense against that Jaguar's defense. Jaguars defense, maybe the unit that I was most wrong about. You know, you were giving me flowers for my Brown's defensive ranking on the show Monday, which, of course, I appreciate. but don't look at where I had the Jaguars in that ranking.

Ben, I think I had a 20-set. They were bottom five for me because I looked at it. That defense stunk last year, and they didn't do anything in the off-season. They literally added nothing to the defensive side of that roster, and they kept the same defensive coordinator. So I was looking at it going, what is the path for this defense to be better this season? Well, one thing that I need to remind myself of every summer

is that younger players can get better. And that's kind of what you're saying with this Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are third in defensive DVOA right now, which I think, like, you have to double check it 10 times to be like, wait a minute. Is that true? Josh Allen has nine sacks in eight games. Tyson Campbell had a good season last year. He's still a high-quality corner. They have Andre Sisko.

So it's like this blend of those younger players. And then like the, you know, the foyer luacons are still out there for the Jaguars. of these like veterans is the name for me where like yeah i don't want to have to sign the devon lloyd apology for him it's pretty vocally anti-devin lloyd i'm getting close to having to sign the devon loyton apology for him he's he's played better ball especially in coverage uh the this season than he did in year one he's the guy who like foyer lewokin takes up all the tackles lloyd is the guy's more impactful linebacker for me there yeah so it it's sort of a weird blend of players but they're getting it done now are they for real i think this is a a big test i think

that Niners offense, you know, has obviously taken some heat. They've scored, I think, 17 points in each of the last three games. I still think they're really freaking good. I mean, you look at it like their first in DVOA. You look at this 49ers offense compared to previous versions, and this has been a theme for us all season. I mean, it's the best version of the 49ers offense we've seen. They've had a bunch of turnovers.

They've had seven turnovers during this three-game losing streak. They're still moving the football. They're still a good offense. So that's interesting to me. And then the other side of the ball, Steve Wilkes has taken some heat in San Francisco. He's doing my... This is one of my most fun things of the year.

So, like, is the coordinators moving to the field? The Matt Canada move, baby. It worked for him. Everybody, get your coordinators out of the booth. I've said it before and I'll say it again. If your coordinators in the booth, he's coached and scared. I don't trust it. I don't buy it.

Get him on the field. There are obviously exceptions to every rule. Todd Munkins up in the booth, calling great games for the Ravens. But in general, if your coordinator's up in the booth, red flag. Get that man on the field. Fangio's in the booth, right? He's a booth guy, I believe. He is now. Yeah, yeah, he is. Which, worst defense we've seen Fangio put out. No, it's not

worst defense. They've been banked up. Get down on the sideline, man. Be with the players. I do. There's nothing I enjoy more than a frustrated coach in a booth, though. Like, when they get that shot, it's the weird angle. I don't even know where the camera is. And the guy's going nuts in the booth. That is very fun to me. But Steve Wilkes is moving from the booth to the field there. They're 15th in defensive DVOA. They're having issues stopping the run. They're having coverage bus, communication issues in the back end.

That defense has not played well. I would say the Jaguars offense has underachieved. And I think you and I have been pretty consistent about this. Like, we just want to see more. I thought this is going to be a top five offense coming into the season. They've had a bunch of turnovers, eight turnovers in opponent's territory for the Jaguars tied for most in the NFL. But even without the turnovers,

just on like a series-to-series, basis, I feel like they've kind of lacked a consistency. Chase Young's debut. So I'm just spitting out like 50 different things. There are a lot of fun storylines in this game. I can't wait to watch it. Yeah. So I have this game involved in a segment later than the show.

So I went to my whole year. But this is, there is no bigger heat check litmus test. What are you really moment than this Niners offense against this Jaguars defense? Jaguars defense numbers wise, great. Jaguars defense in terms of how I've always felt. about the players. Now I feel about the scheme. I have some doubts. I have some suspicion. I agree. I'm not all there with them either. I'm with yeah. And especially uh, uh, with how you've seen teams be successful against Purdy and successful against the Niners in

recent stretches where they've been able to dial it up on him a little bit more. Purdy's one of the most blitzed quarterbacks in the league. Uh, and this is a defense that likes to be able to blitz and send pressure. It's what Mike called well as a Todd Bulls disciple. It's kind of you, you formulate this defense on getting to third and long and getting into pressure looks. All right. Well, like this guy's getting blitzed a lot and it's been struggling against it in recent weeks. You've been good at blitzing. Like, this should be a good matchup for you. Why do I feel the way that I do?

Why do I feel like maybe it's not so much? Nyder's coming off of a buy as well as a big deal. And so Jaguar's home game against like a true blue blood contender. Like win this thing. You'll buy a lot of legitimacy in the eyes of extra point taken. It's just you got to get the hay in the bar in there a little bit. I'm not sure they will. They'll be set.

They would be seven and two with a win. You know, you're right in the mix for a one seat if you win this game. if you win this game. If you're Jacksonville, the Niners, I feel like the way the NFC is set up, they can kind of lose this game and still be okay in terms of, like, I think they're going to make the playoffs regardless. But in terms of the NFC West, you obviously would lose a game to the Seattle Seahawks. All right.

Next up, Monday morning storyline. What do you got? I think one of the biggest storylines is going to be the Detroit offense getting back to full health. Detroit's coming off of their by. They're playing the Chargers this week, a 4 o'clock game. It's in L.A. by the way, I didn't realize this.

This was brought to my attention during the Lions by week. Lions are two lost team, right? They got, what is it, eight games left, eight games left, nine games left in the season, eight games. Jared Goff plays not a dome in one of those games. They are. Really? Wow. They have an away game in Soldier Field, all right?

And so that is a game where you potentially look at maybe Lions team total under. Maybe we buy a little fade, but they have the Saints on the road. so they're in the Super Dome. They have the Vikings on the road, so they're in whatever that dome is called, and they have the Cowboys on the road. So they're in AT&T Stadium. And then the rest of the games are at home.

So cold weather Jared ain't coming out anytime soon. We're going to get one peek at him, and then it's playoff time. I am so ready to get way over indexed on this lion's offense, and then get immediately punished the second they have to play outside in January. Anyway, I... Well, hold on.

There's a chance they wouldn't have to play outside in January. This team could get the one seat. I mean, the Eagles have to play outside in January. I mean, the Eagles have a much tougher schedule than them the rest of the way. If they can stack wins in those indoor stadiums, like, the road to the Super Bowl could go through Detroit. So we, I was on Bill's show on Thursday yesterday, and we were doing like season-long futures and whatever. And Bill brought up Lions' best record in the NFL 10 to 1. And I was like, yeah, I also have looked at that because the Lions are very heavily incentivized to just win as many games they can.

And also, Lions haven't been this good a while. Like, you can't tell me, Dan Campbell in Week 17 is going to be put in. Teddy Bridgewater and Craig Reynolds out there. No chance. No chance they're resting. They are winning football games. So this is far-reaching Lions. Well, match the Lions this week is they're going up against a really poor Chargers defense. Chargers' defense has been better against the run, and we had a listener remind us to that. I appreciate that. But in general, a Chargers defense that can get got by these top offenses. They're getting David Montgomery back from injury. They're getting Jonah Jackson back from injury, left guard. Frank Ragnos coming back from

missing a game. They have Graham Glasgow now set at right guard. He wasn't tend to the starter, but he is now because Vita's not healthy. They are pretty much 11 for 11 on offensive health at this point. Donovan People's Jones, their trade acquisition might not play this week, just he's coming back from injury and he's onboarding onto the team. But in general, full strength unit in the middle of the season, awesome. Really, really nice thing to have. Critically, the absence of David Montgomery, who was playing really good ball for them

early in the season, allowed for just a wonderful emergence of Jemir Gibbs, their first round picket running back, who was a guy that, wait, wait, wait, you're shaking. your head at me? No, like his last game was incredible. Yeah, I was like, oh my god. I was like, he had like 200 scrimaturge. Yeah. As much as I would like, as much as much as I like to argue in favor, yeah, I can't argue this. No, Jemir Gibbs incredible. So Jameer Gibbs, right, they were, they were struggling to get him the volume and get him the experience. You kind of get his sea legs under him early. They always had this like wonderful plan for him and whatever. But against the Raiders, yeah, 26 carries, 152.

yards and a touchdown. He had another 50 receipt or he had another five receptions. An excellent, excellent day. That now you have to balance that with Montgomery returning. Montgomery is still a valuable player and good between the tackles. But now that you've gotten Gibbs confident, you've obviously had Laporta now prove that he's like a very legitimate guy. I think we're going to start to see for the Lions over the next few weeks what this offense actually looks like. It was envisioned to look like when they brought in these rookies and it took a little bit of time to onboard them. And if that offense is good, if that offense really like, all right, they have legit weapons outside of Amman Ross, St. Brown, Gibbs is like a game breaker. If that, that sort of

caliber, that's really impactful for the Lions as we start talking about them as like a legitimate playoff team in the NFC. And so this game up coming against the Chargers, I'm really excited to see this line's offense off of the buy at full strength, see how they handle that two-headed running back field. I'm interested in that. That could be another game. I may be may or may not be considering for lock of the week. We, we shall say, uh, yeah, I agree with, uh, with, uh, with everything you said. I mean, I really like this. When people ask me, like, are the, you know, name your contenders, are the Lions a real contender? I think there's no team that it varies based on what seed they finish with more so for me than the Lions. If they're

the, if they get that by and home field, then I'm going to say, of course, yes, they can get to the Super Bowl. If you're telling me they have to go to Philly or Dallas or San Francisco or something and win an NFC championship game, I mean, anything can happen. That, I think is going to be a tough task when you just look at, you know, Jared Golf is a different quarterback in those spots. Yeah. As someone who lives in Michigan, convincing these Detroit fans to believe in this team is tough, man. Like, this is a scarred, broken,

oh, yeah. Like, I just had a doctor's appointment this morning. Doctors a Lions fan. They're like, oh, Eagles are doing good. Yeah, I said, yeah, lions are going to be, they're settling in him. It's going to be a good run. He was like, ah, we'll see. I was like, you have two losses. You're going to win the division. It's like, I don't know, these lions. Like, they are broken people up here. They are

going to believe until they see it. Let me ask you this, then, Shio. Next week, you get the schedule makers let you change the whole schedule. You get to set up whatever games you like. And we bring Philadelphia to Detroit. We play a home game in Detroit. Eagles are visiting in Detroit. What do you make the line? Eagles, I think the Eagles would be favored in that game. I think they would probably, two and a half, Eagles, two and a half. I think it would be, I think it would be three or less. What do you think it would be? So you said Eagles would be favored. I'm not positive they would be. I think that that that game's probably going to be like yeah so like I'm

unpredictable our favorite site right which I have a lot of our yeah I'm looking at it now too I think I'm wrong yeah my points favored on a neutral field the eagles are plus 5.3 and the lions are plus 4.5 so so long as a court like along the lion's home field is worth at least a point they would have the lions that's favored I think that probably eagles are going to be about two points better than the lines in a lot of models and so if you're given a full three points home field the lines are favorite if not you're probably making it to pick them. but in general, I think right now, given how those teams are power rated

and obviously of injuries in Philadelphia and Dallas Goddard and Kobe Dean, like they're dealing with more banged up stuff than the Lions are. I do think that like Lions hosting a game in Detroit tomorrow, I'd probably make that, yeah, like Lions minus 1. I think it would be what I would expect it to land on. Now, we'll see what happens in January

because I think if that game is played tomorrow, it's Lions minus 1. If we're in January football, I think the Eagles are more likely to have a little bit more juice because they've just been around, right? that you trust them a little bit more. Dan Campbell, you don't necessarily know how well that team's going to perform. The Lions are a young team.

But in general, Lions home field is very, very meaningful. And the health stuff is a good point. I mean, that's kind of going in somewhat opposite directions. Eagles lose Dallas Scottard. Jalen Hertz is playing injured. And like you said, lions are getting healthy. All right, before we move on, it's time for a special part of today's episode presented by State Farm.

There's a lot of things that are good together, and one of them might be Ben Solac. Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins. My Monday morning storyline this week is we're going to get a chorus of fan bases, reporters saying, how could our team have passed on Will Levis? Because I think Will Levis is going to Tampa, and he's going to play well,

and he's going to put up big numbers, and I think he's going to put up big numbers with D'Andre Hopkins. Again, dynamic duo. Those two have looked good so far this season. Levis has looked good so far in these two games. So far when he throws to D'Andre Hopkins, eight catches, I think, for 188 yards

for D'Andre Hopkins in two games, I believe, with Will Levis. So those two, Levis is not afraid to air it out. We've seen that. He's going to stand in there. He's going to let it rip. He's big. he's strong, he has a cannon. I mean, I don't know how many guys have a stronger arm than Will Leves in the NFL.

He can flick the rest in the Senate. Does he have the strongest arm in the NFL right now? I don't think so. I think like Alan and Mahomes and Herbert are still guys that are up there. He's right there. I don't know. So I mean, like I, that touchdown he had against the Falcons a couple weeks ago where he threw it across his body, Nick Westbrook or Kina right on that, that shot play.

I went like through like data to find plays where, okay, the quarterback is on the right numbers and he's throwing it outside of the left numbers 40 yards down the field. And there's like six of them in the last three years, right? Like Herbert did it. Zach Wilson did one, right? Aaron Rogers tried one and under threw it dramatically and threw a pick. CJ Bethard threw one, which was weird. So it can kind of be like a bit of like a one-off play.

But in general, you don't see quarterbacks successfully complete that pass away Levis did. Yeah, I mean, listen, it's a small sample. Rookie quarterbacks go through ups and downs. But he can definitely make the high-level throws that you will. want to see from a young quarterback Titans announced this week that Levis is going to be their starter the rest of the way. So my Monday morning storyline, you know, is like Falcons fans, Raiders fans, Patriots fans, maybe Vikings fans, maybe Seahawks fans. There's going to be a lot of talk about how could Will Levis last till the 33rd pick? What's wrong with quarterback evaluation

in the NFL? Why can't we get this right? And then you maybe get the classics, which is my favorite, the little leaks of, well, you know, T-Mex really liked Levis, but, you know, he's, you know, he got taken just before they were going to play. It's so weird how that always happens. Those leaks always happen there. So like Levis a lot in Tampa this weekend. Yeah. And for people who follow Ringer's coverage for the draft process,

folks will know, like I was high on Levis's relative to like media consensus. And I definitely thought it was going to be a first round pick. And a lot of the word on the street, February and March, was like, this guy's going to go round one. He's going to go early. If I could truth serum the NFL, one of the early things I would ask would be, hey, like, what happened on the Levis fall?

Because, like, it very much felt like it was like, someone is worried about his personality. And so maybe I'm worried about his personality now, sort of a thing. And fundamentally, guy on the field works, right? Like, I don't think he's a revolutionary game-changing quarterback. But big, boy, big arm, tough in pocket, will play every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I mean, that's just that model has worked and it's worked for a long time.

And so I like what I've seen from Levis. It makes sense to me, right? he's succeeding the way he succeeded in college. It feels sustainable in the sense that he can keep doing it. It's a volatile play style, but it's still sustainable to keep doing it that way. For Panthers fans, man, it's one thing to watch CJ Stroud, who went two,

and Anthony Richardson who went four and be like, okay, well, those guys are good. Like, you know, they were early picks, whatever we missed. It'd be another thing of Levis is good. It's another thing if the guy went 33 can also play. That's real tough. I like this a lot. I think that the Buccaneers have been a very,

vulnerable past defense in recent weeks. And you look at what wide receiver ones have done to this team. Noah Brown, he's not wide receiver one, but he went six for six, one hundred fifty three yards. Montrose, St. Brown, 12 for 12, 24 on 15 targets. Khalil Shakir went six for six, 92 on this team. Stefan Diggs, nine for 70. Like, they have just been bleeding to receivers this year.

So Levis and Hopkins. So I expect a big week from those two. Yeah, I like that. We have a reason to watch the Titans here. Now the, you know, they were kind of stuck in that like, Yeah. You know, I don't need to get to this game quite so quickly on a Monday if I missed it. On a Sunday, now I'm like, oh, this team has some juice.

I'm excited to watch them here. So Levis and DeAndre Hopkins in Tampa, keep an eye on that dynamic duo. You know what else is better together? Home and Auto Insurance, and with the State Farm Personal Price Plan, bundling home and auto is just another way to save. It's a pro move when it comes to saving money, letting you call the place so you can choose the coverage that fits your needs at a price you can afford. talk to a state farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan.

Like a good neighbor, state farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. All right, let's take a quick break. We'll come back on extra point taken, and we will get to our props, long shots, and picks of the week. Score early this NFL season with Fandwell, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 money line bet wins. This week, on my locks of the week, I have the Vikings plus three against the Saints.

I have the Niners, minus three against the Jags and the Lions, minus three against the chargers. If you've been thinking about joining Fandall, there's no better time to get in on the action. Yeah, but so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet. Live same game parlays. Finding bets in the new Explorer tab, diving into the parlay hub, the best way to find popular parlays, and so much more. So visit fandal.com slash rigor NFL and kickoff the NFL season, Fandul and official partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus and present in select states $5 pregame money line wager required. First online real money wager only $10.1st deposit required. Bonus issue does not withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fandul.com.

All right. We are back on extra point. Take it. It's time for the competition portion of the week. Solek, give us an update. Where are we at? After nine weeks, halfway point of the end. Oh, by the way, I was going to ask you, we're doing this competition into the playoffs, right? Like we're just rolling it on every round. Same deal, right? Because I definitely stopped betting in the playoffs, you 100%.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no doubt. We'll come up with the actual terms, whether we just, I think maybe we just do every game. We have to pick every game in the playoffs rather than just pick three. But we'll figure it out when time. I just wanted to make sure, you know, I don't want any hijinks.

You're leading after, you know, week 18, and you're like, no, you never. said this was playoff so just wanted to make sure all right give us the update all right it's tied again 27 27 uh we were tied two weeks ago then i had a five point a week when she'll had a two point week and then this past week i had a two point week and she'll had a five point week now if you're wondering how could how could it be tied so like i mean the way you painted it last week i was down by like 50 i had no chance you bounced back i didn't bounce back at all my i was struggling and just in one a week I tied it. Wow, that's interesting.

All right. Do you want to know where righteousness has gone, where justice has fled to, what dark corner of the earth goodness has left to? Because I, Cheel, I was on Falcons minus three and a half against the Vikings and I was on Texas

minus three against the bucks. And if football games were 59 minutes and 30 seconds long, I was getting about 30 seconds, 59 minutes. I was 2.0. And then the Texans drive down the field, score a game-winning touchdown. They're up by two. And then they go to kick the extra point.

But no, wait. Kajemi Fairbairn is hurt. Backup kicker slash running back Dario Gumbawale is in. He's already hit a fuel goal in this game, but they don't want to risk a block in a return because it would be worth two points. So they just kneel it on the extra point try and only win by two.

I was personally, I was on minus two and a half. Like for my purposes, for the competition I was on three. So that's a loss. Then Falcons minus three and a half. I thought I was fading Jaron Hall. Lo and behold, Hall goes down in the first quarter, Josh Dobbs comes in,

and Josh Dobbs shreds the Falcons, game-winning drive to Brandon Powell to win by three when the Falcons were winning by four, and they would have covered. So I had two of just the dumbest losses you've ever seen last week. The Falcons, you deserve to lose. The Texans, I would agree with you.

The Falcons, I did not deserve to lose at all. I was fading a rookie. The rookie went down. the field on him before he got a concussion. In this competition, I have like faded Bejant on his first career start. I faded like Jared Hall on his first career start. Bejent had, they covered,

they had a great performance, they were successful, and then since then they've been dreadful. I'm missing these rookie quarterback windows, regardless. I had under our Travis Kelsey Yards, that hit. I had the Browns cover against the Cardinals.

Fading Clay in tune, that hit. And then my Zach Moss, Jonathan Taylor parley looked great in the first half. And then the Colston had no drives. Colson didn't get the ball because it was all pick sixes from Bryce Young. So that one lost for you on the week.

Eagles cover against the Cowboys, definitely one you deserve to win. Definitely a high quality bet. Yeah, really honorable win there. I agree. They were up by 11. Chiefs cover against the dolphins.

Yeah, not like the dolphins were also driving to tie it up in the fourth quarter. Yeah, the game was over at half time. The teams that you're fading, they can't finish the fourth quarter drives. Mine are great on the fourth quarter drives.

And then you have the panthers on the road. That was a loss. Over 66-hour. Receiving yards from Adam Thieland was a loss. but the money ball, the Dolan Kincaid bet, which I loved Kincaid bet a very good night against the Bengals. 50 plus receiving yards gives you three points on the long shot, five on the week.

We're now tied at 27. If you look against the spread where we're trying to be above 56%, we are not collectively above 49% at this time. So while our long shots and our props keep saving us, man, against the spread, we've got to get a little bit better over here. We've got to improve tied to 27 on the week. This is wild. How are we tied?

After nine weeks, tied exactly after nine weeks of the season. We're not just doing this for content. You know, I would kind of, you know, rank the numbers if they were good for content. This is actually what's happening. It's wild. So, yeah, here's what we do. We do the prop of the week. That's got to be minus 130 or higher odds.

That's worth one point. Our locks of the week are straight against the spread. Those are each worth one. So that's a total of four. And then the long shot plus 150 or higher odds. That's worth three. Do you want to know why we're tied? seven points. Do I know why we're tied? I'll tell why we're tied.

Because I was eight and one against the spread over a three week stretch. And you were making a big deal about it. And I told you not to make a big deal about it. I told you was bad luck. I'm three and twelve cents. All right. So this is not, no, no, no. You didn't tell me that to make a big deal. I, this is you. I think you tweeted something out. I remember there was a morning of. And you said, like, this isn't going to last. But here's what I am. You can't, you brought this on to yourself. I would never do that. Because you were on the pod. Like, you got to talk about this. You got to share this. Why are you not share this. this. I was like, don't do this to me, Sheel?

Preparensible. Scurrilous tactics, shameful. Anything to win. That's how I'm operating with this competition. All right, let's get to it. Prop of the week. Now, this is weird. So, like, because you're, you know, you're online. I like your bit where you do keys to the game for, like, every football game basically played the entire season, and you give your props. It's every prime time game, yeah. Every prime time game. And you're, what, five over, I believe? Is that right? something like I'm like barely about 500 again I was like to start the season I was like 24 and 11

and since then I'm like 7 and 13 or something yeah but a cold stretch gotcha okay but and I'm not like a big prop guy this is like turning me into more of a prop guy they're fine I've had more success on the props you've had more success uh on the locks all right what do you have for your prop this week so we talked about that titans passing game brought up uh Dejadjohns hopkins brought up the downfield ball from will levis the other thing that the titans are doing quite a bit uh with will levis and is have thrown a lot of screens. And you've seen Derek Henry get more involved in the passing game. I like Derek Henry have over 13 and a half receiving yards against the Buccaneers. Like I said, the Buccaneers have been a big pass funnel defense.

Really, really, really bad. The bottom ranked against the pass over the last four weeks. We're still quite good defense against the run. You know the Titans are going to try to involve Derek Henry. He's one of their foundational pieces. And I think that this is a game where they're going to obviously ram their head into the wall a little bit. You have to do that. You have to take a look at it. But they're also going to try to get him involved in the passing game. And because of the threat that Henry is as a guy in space, to get over 13 and a half, we really need one good screen. We need one good catch and run.

He breaks a tackle on a corner. We're getting home. And the two games that Levis has started, Henry's got four, caught four of four targets for 21 yards, and then caught three or four targets for 27 yards. When you go and you look at those plays, it's like, you know, first target minus two yards, second target, one yard, third target, 26 yards. Like that's what we're kind of looking at here. Taijay Spears is the third down back for the.

the Titans, it can feel tempting to take him because he's the guy that runs more routes. But we're not looking for route volume because those like underneath patterns and Levis doesn't really throw those as much. He throws him out of the line of scrimmage. We're looking for more of that screen game, that designed catch game, which they've used a lot to protect Levis to kind of find cheap yards without asking him to process. Henry, over 13 and a half receiving yards like it quite a bit. All right. I like it, Henry. I, you really dig deep with these 13 and a half receiving yards. I like that because it's taking me the fourth quarter and the guy can have no targets. You know, just throw one screen. Just throw one screen.

And then you get it right there. So that's a nice one. I've got George Pickens over. Now, I was saying to myself, Sheal, you are not allowed to pick anything related to the Steelers. You should not do that. This is stupid. You haven't had any sort of feel for them all season long,

but I couldn't help myself. Again, it was good for content. George Pickens, over 41 and a half receiving yards. Screeky wheel? Yes, Pickens was frustrated last week. You know, reporter said he wasn't celebrating the Deontay Johnson touchdown. he unfollowed the Steelers on Instagram. He had a since deleted post IG story that said,

Free Me, which I love. Mike Tomlin was asked about this. Great thing to tweet after the trade deadline, too. Like that way it's very clear what you want. Free me before the deadline? Concerning. Free me after the deadline? He just wants more volume.

Mike Tomlin called it, but a pebble in my show, which is probably how, you know, when I need a Solac a little bit, probably how he describes me to, you know, when he's offline to people in his life. But these shields but a pebble in my shoe. I do love that quote.

That's awesome. So George Pickens, like Ben said, maybe this little squeaky wheel gets the grease here. I think Talbot knows what he's doing with player relations. So if he feels like, let's get him a couple touches early, he's going to get a couple touches early. Maybe more importantly, I think Kenny Pickett knows, hey, I would like a good relationship with George Pickens

if I'm going to have like a nice career in Pittsburgh. I'm going to throw the football his way early on because he is a very good football player. So I think they get him the ball early. Jayaeer Alexander. The Steelers are playing the Packers, by the way. Jaya Alexander did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. They, of course, traded Russell Douglas a couple of weeks ago.

So, you know, they're a little underman there in the secondary. And Pickens, like, if you look at his numbers, you know, he's had like a quiet couple of weeks. On the season, he's averaging 65 receiving yards per game. Like, he's gone over this 41 and a half number four times this season. So listen, this is bound to go terribly for me. I should not do anything related to the Steelers, but I've got Pickens over 41 and a half receiving yards. Yeah, you're a big fan of the squeaky wheel bets.

I got to, I have to introduce you to Fandalls. With receivers, yeah. Yeah, I have to introduce you to Fandalls to catch a drive on the first pass, a pass on the first drive bet. Very fun one, all right? A.J. Brown, after he complained in week one, Juan Jennings, when Dibo went down.

It's a very nice market, very, very, very friendly market. Love it from Fandle. Keep putting that up. But yeah, pickings to get that early volume, to get that intentional volume, I definitely think is a chance. This Packer-Steeler's game is a game that I have a bet on it for my long shot. I wanted to get even more ambitious with it. I stopped myself for the sake of not getting the odds too high. But I do think that Packer-Steers is going to be just disgusting football.

I think it's just going to be reprehensible. Just Panthers bears with like a little bit more honor, but not too much. So hopefully if it stays close And you're in the you're in the Piggins window the whole time Right? The Steelers are in a position where they're still throwing the football They're stolen script All Steelers overs though are forever terrifying

And the presence of Deontay Johnson does worry me With like any Pickens bet Because I think it's very clear Who Pickett prefers to throw the ball to Oh there's no worse feeling than having something Having a pick on the Steelers Anything related to the Steelers offense Or the Steelers in general

It's a miserable experience on a Sunday afternoon Speaking from experience Yeah from experience. All right. Long shot of the week. Here we go. It's the money ball. I got to be plus 150 or better. This baby's worth three points. You can screw up all the rest of your picks. You hit this. You still have a three point week. That's not bad. What do you have? Benny Soles. Yeah. So two unders this week that I like quite a bit are the under 40 and a half points in Saints Vikings and the under in 39 and a half points for Packers Steelers. Those are low numbers.

Yeah. Now, unders have been very good, have been very good to the point this season. It's generally just been a down year for scoring overall. On these particular teams, we're looking at Saints' defense and Vikings defense that are top 10, top 12 in most metrics. And then we're looking at Derek Carr-led offense

and Josh Dobbs-led offense. I think particularly what Brian Flores is going to be able to do to Derek Carr is going to be a fun thing to see. This Flores defense, through four weeks of the season, it was cute. It was like, look at this.

this is fun. They're blitzing a ton and then drop an eight. Like how cool, kitchen sink defense. Check everything at the wall. See what sticks. We're nine weeks in. This might be real, man. What the frick?

This is awesome. I don't think it's something that you see consistently work against top quarterbacks, like the Vikings faced the chiefs and Mahomes had, you know, for grading on the scale of just Mahomes this season, he had success against this past defense. But in general, this hassles bad quarterbacks. This stress is. them out. And I do think that against Carr, a player can be flustered on the Blitz. You're going to see Florida's have a lot of advantages. And then Packers, Steelers, we're looking at the Packers who are

the worst first quarter offense in the league and the Steelers who are the fifth worst first quarter offense in the league. I really wanted to get like under first half total under first quarter total, like no score first quarter. But like I was either doing like plus 110 or like plus 300. I couldn't get it up plus 150. So I just took the overall the under 41 and a half. If you partly those together, under 42 and a half for Saints Vikings, under 41 and a half for Steelers, Packers, then you get plus 167. I think you're going to see an extremely slow scoring game, extremely methodical game early for Packers Steelers, would not be surprised if we walk into the half at 6-0, 6-0,

7-0-7-3. I think it's going to be super, super, super stuck in the mud in the first half. And then both these teams tend to be better in the second half, pick things up. But they're also teams that don't have quick scoring drives in them that often. You've seen like, you know, oh, 75-yard catch-run Calvin Austin, oh, 40-yard catch-and-run, Christian Watson, you've seen that, but it's just not consistent for either team. I don't think they're going to be able to get into like a shootout mode second half where they're actually scoring consistently on one another.

Then you're going to see turnovers. You're going to see sacks. You're going to see puns. You're going to see long drives. Do not think we're getting a lot of points in this one. So 42 and a half for the Saints, 4.1.5 for Packers, under on both, plus 167. Now did you take into account the, I mean, that was a Matt Canada in the booth world you're describing.

Matt Canada on the sideline, they're going up and down the field on the first possession for a touchdown. Just something to keep in mind if you're taking so like that. You have to sideline adjust. I forgot to sideline adjust the numbers. That's on me. Rerun it in your model and let us know if you want to keep it or not. All right.

My long shot of the week is a direct result of we had a little extra time before recording today. And I was just going through, I was just going through Fandall left and right. What if I add this and this? Because I like just having what my preference is to just have a team I think is going to win big. Do the adjusted line. Get it to plus 150. have a player who I think is going to perform well, bump it up a little, the alternate receiving yards or rushing yards or passing yards,

bump it up, get it to plus 150. None of those were speaking to me. So instead, we got creative. I don't know if this is like a Ben Solex special or not. I usually don't delve into this territory. Here's what we're doing. We're doing Ravens Money Line. This is a three-legged, okay?

First line, first leg is Ravens Money Line. Just have to beat the Browns. They're minus six and a half. I like the Ravens in that game there at home. I don't think we have a juggernaut in the NFL this year. If we do, it might be the Ravens based on the way they blow out some of these teams. That's one. Then we're sticking with that game and we're taking Deshawn Watson under 193.5 passing yards.

It's a low number. I was like, oh, that's a low number shield. Do you want to take that? If he has one long pass, you might be screwed there. I just believe in this Ravens defense. I don't believe in this Brown's offense. They've got injuries, again, at offensive, both offensive tackle spots. I feel like they're going to be able to fluster Deshawn Watson quite a bit in this game.

Maybe he makes some plays with his legs. I don't think he's going to have a big passing game. Now, again, if he has one or two out of structure plays for 30 yards, then I'm probably going to lose this one. But you know what? I'm going to go ahead and take the risk. So I had those two. I think it was like plus 138 or something.

I'm like, all right, I need to add just a little taste to something here. And I went to Cowboys Giants. Yes. How low can I keep this line and just bump it over 150? Cowboys alternate spread versus the Giants minus two and a half gets me to plus 150. Let's go. So they're 16 and a half, or are they up to 17 now? 17 and a half.

17 and a half, yep. So listen, I'm taking it all the way down to minus two and a half. So three legs, Ravens Money Line over the Browns. Deshawn Watson under 193 and a half, which is the passing yards, which is the part I'm most nervous about here. And then Cowboys alternate spread minus two and a half against the Giants. That gets me two plus 151. Again, this is a direct result of me having a little extra time,

just poking around, adding stuff to that great Fandul calculator, and seeing what I could come up with. So there you go. How am I going to lose this? I did look at... The Watson thing? I did look at Cowboys alternate lines to try to find just a straight plus 150 on like Cowboys minus 21 and a half.

I have my nonsense prediction is about this game. Watson I'm worried about because of garbage time, right? Like that's your main concern. It's just like volume-wise. They're going to be thrown on the ball, I think, quite a bit in this game. Ravens are not as good at sitting on the ball as they should be, and so they give up a lot of second half drives. That's what I'm worried about.

Ravens Browns, like I said, like I have Ravens money line. A lot of teasers. I like you there. And then, yeah, Cowboys minus two and a half. If you lose that, you weren't meant to win it. I don't know. That would be the funniest doubt. come if I get the first two and lose that one. It's a four o'clock game too. So you'd be like, all right,

that's going to hit. I can forget about it. Nice. And then how of a sudden it turns out you're sweating it late. All right. So there you go. That is my long shot of the week. All right, nonsense prediction. Now this one's not part of the contest, but I will say, you know, our wonderful colleague, Lindsay Jones messaged me and she's like, you should get credit for your nonsense prediction, which last week I said there's going to be some IG video coming out of the Raiders Slotker room afterwards. And that was, that was, like the most fun part of week nine is all the victory cigars in the raiders locker room so you don't get credit for those but you know what i'm going to soup my own horn for that one devante adams

had a great quote where people were asking him like you guys are smoking victory cigars after like a win against the giants like what's going on and he was like if you guys don't know why we weren't if why we were if we were smoking victory cigars after like what happened this week then you guys just don't understand like football like you guys just like don't get it like you guys have like oh i didn't see that right which shield predicted this beforehand so shield gets it like that's that It's an emphatic stamp of getting it, understanding the team, understanding the dynamics, to know beforehand that it's coming. Well done.

You know what? I do my, like every couple of years, I do my rules for hiring an NFL coach. One of them should definitely needs to be like, if you fire this candidate, will the, you know, will the players be smoking victory cigars in celebration? Because they're so happy. Yeah, you don't want that. And if you're an NFL coaching candidate, like, think about that. When you're relating to players, be like, how happy are these players going to be if I get fired?

You don't, that's not the relationship you want. You want them to be kind of sad or at least like neutral that you get fired. My nonsense was we were going to get a Germany named play in Chiefs Dolvin. Yes, people were into that. Into the lateral and some very intrepid listeners tried to get the Frankfurt fumble rusky going, but nobody picked it up. I appreciate the effort, though. It was very kind.

Yeah. People did enjoy that. People also did point out that there was a Germany game the previous year. Which blew my mind. These listeners are incredible. I was doing that. I was like there's no way there was a Germany game. I was astonished that there was a Germany game before Chiefs stuff.

I had completely erased it from memory. All right. What do you got this week? What's the nonsense prediction? The Giants are going to score, which already sounds like a nonsense prediction in and of itself. Yeah, that's it. On a drive that is entirely Sequin Barkley Wildcat. So if you remember, in 2022, Daniel Jones went down with an injury against the Chicago Bears.

And then Tyrod Taylor went into the game, was concussed, and the Bears had to, excuse me, the Giants had to finish the game against the Bears in the Wildcat. Sequin Barclay was their emergency quarterback. Barclay was running the Wildcat. They were having a good time. Barclays do the Wildcat a lot at Penn State. We've also seen the Giants under Daibled deploy the Wildcat for like short yardage stuff and a goal line stuff. It's a very dabley thing to do. Like, oh, like we have this cool wildcat package.

The Giants do not want to be starting Tommy DeVito in this game. They are at a horrible place. This is a very sad, depressing place. They might move out from Barta to Stratmer at some point. We'll all pretend that that's better, even though it really isn't. But for the reality that you have now, where you're going up against the Cowboys team, this is a juggernaut of a team, you're in a terrible spot, 6 and 17. 5 point line, you're in trouble.

What are you going to do? You got to do stuff that they don't expect, right? This is prime, like, fake punt territory, you know, prime double reverse the first time we crossed the 50, you know, Hail Mary throw back to Tommy DeVito nonsense. I wouldn't be surprised if we get like a, a, Cowboys turn over. Like, oh, snap, fumble, recover. Giants get the ball at the 45.

And they walk out and just immediately go Wildcat. And just try to, okay, surprise them, get a couple positive runs, get inside of the 30. Now we know we can kick a field goal. We're going to have our Wildcat drive. So the Giants will run Wildcat for at least a full drive, and they will score on that drive. And then everyone will be like, should they keep doing this?

And then it won't work the next drive. It'll be funny. I like it. Yeah, they're kind of out of options that they got caught with something. We're going to see it, baby. We're going to see, we're going to see, we're going to see Sechle and Barclay attempt to pass. I'm thrilled.

I like it. All right. Now, I'm debating between two here. Do you want a Falcons Cardinals one or do you want a Patriots one? You tell me which one to go with here. All that's disgusting. Patriots Colts that they're going to leave Bill Belichick in Germany and fire him on the Leltenza air strip. Not exactly.

I mean, you're not totally like off base. All right. Let's hear it. Let's go with that. I think there's going to be some type of like either a cold. player altercation or like an anonymous quote or two about the Patriots coaching staff from players after the Patriots lose this game to the cold. So if you thought the Patriots hit rock bottom like a month ago, they have not.

I mean, I don't know how many people are still even paying attention to them. But last week, starting cornerbacks Jack Jones and J.C. Jackson were benched to start the game. The Athletics Chad Graff wrote an excellent piece about this. and Jackson's not making the trip to Germany this week. And by the way, last week, after the game, this is from Chad Graff, after the game Jones liked to tweet since removed,

saying that he should have pled guilty, presumably to the charges he faced for bringing loaded guns to the airport at the outset of this season, implying that the alternative is better than this current situation with the Patriots. I look at to read that passage over three times. Like, wait, what is...

Oh my goodness, so things are going bad there. Mac Jones was frustrated after the last game. They are, they're dogs in this game, right? The Colts are minus one and a half, I believe. Yep. In this game, yeah, Colts are minus one and a half in this game in Germany against the Patriots. It feels like things are kind of reaching a boiling point there. So listen, maybe it's somebody coming off the field and yelling at Steve Belichick.

Maybe it's just some quotes afterwards that are like, you know, these guys don't know what they're doing. They've lost the locker room. whatever, but it seems to me like we're reaching that point in the season where those players are like, you know what, this is not a, you know, I play football because it's fun and I make money and this is not a fun season. And we're going to let some things rip here now that our season is over. So there you go. That's my Patriots Colts prediction. I would like it more if I didn't think the Patriots are going to win this game, which I do. And so at that point, then you feel better about it.

The Colts are such a weird team to calibrate too, though. These are the two toughest teams I think the league to like figure out what they're going to do in any given week. So my gut says Patriots. I'm nowhere on my head. I could see, I was going to say like, oh, like Patriots leaks, like not for a Bill Belichick team, but this team does so many non-Billelichick things that they might as well also start having leaks in drama and whatever. I've seen like, you know, like, oh, Belichick's can get five midseason. I don't think that's going to happen. I think that like the, there were suggestions. There were suggestions this week that like if he could even beat the Colts, like that was going to be the final straw. And it's like, I don't know. It's the cults in Germany.

Like, I don't think they're going to like, you know, on the flight home, like 11 hours be like, Bill, let's have a conversation and then all sit in this. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I don't think so. But the frustrations are like a lot more evident in New England than they usually are. And that's already like a weird sign. All right. Let's take one more break. We'll come back. We will finish with our locks of the week. All right, we are back on extra point taking. I've got two locks that I like, and then I just, I have a list of like seven games where I'm like,

I guess I got to pick one of these for my third one. Where are you? Do you have three solid ones that you like? Are you debating any? I have four that I like, and then I know for sure I'm doing two and the last two I got to figure out.

All right, so man, I would love to record this pod later on Friday when we got Friday injured reports. It would be so handy. My first pick is nine is minus three on the road against the Jags. We've talked on this pod where like, Jags are six and two. They won five games in a row.

You and I are both invested in the Jags being good. You and I are both big preseason on the Jags. So if we thought this were like a really solid, you know, rock steady, winning as expected, winning in a sustainable way team, we would be cashing in on those receipts. I think both you and I are kind of still holding them because we're trying to figure out exactly what this team is. They've not looked as consistent on offense as you'd like for them to,

defensively it feels like they're punching above their weight. The 49ers provide for them a really good test. Kyle Shanahan has historically had a really good Niners team post-bye. Last year, they were four and four before the buy, nine and no afterward. Season previous, they were, I want to say, two and three before the buy, and then eight and two afterwards. They tend to be really, really strong coming out of the break. Debo Samuel expected back for this game as well, being a big deal for the 49ers. Trent Williams is a question mark.

No practice on Wednesday. Limited practice on Thursday, we'll see. But just the return of Debo, I think it's really important to this team. I also think it's a huge McCaffrey day. Jaguars tend to be one of the worst defenses against running backs catching the ball, and Christian McAfrey tends to be, you know, the best running back at catching the ball.

So this, I think, is a nice matcher for the Niners offense. I think that even in Jacksonville, on the road, traveling to the East Coast, I like the Niners' ability to cover this at three. So congrats to the Niners for winning by two. This was a tough one. I picked Jaguars for my column. My gut was telling me, like,

I still believe in the Niners, and the Niners need this. One more, I generally, Doug Peterson, an underdog role. I like him there. I felt like there was probably going to be a lot of public backing on the Niners because it makes sense. They still have a great offense. And again, they've lost three in a row.

Like, are they going to lose four in a row? So I went with the Jaguars. I understand your reasoning. I think it's valid. I will stay looking at the spreadsheet here when your locks of the week now overlap with my picks from my weekly column. Those are at 61%. This doesn't fall into that category, but list for the listeners.

keep that in mind when we have the overlap. Maybe we can actually pick a game right this season. So that's something to keep in mind here. All right, my first one. I'm sticking with the bills, baby. Bills minus seven against the Broncos. We talked about them on Monday. Listen, I'm just picked the bills every week.

Is this Sunday night football? This is Monday night football. Monday, okay. Yeah, so we'll be talking about this game on Monday. We both said on the Monday show last week, we're not ready to bury the bills. I thought we got a great, this was a tweet. I was going to say email.

It was actually a tweet, Ben, from Jen Demarki, because she saw our video. She responded to the video, and she said, I think what Solac and others fail to take into account about Bill's fans is the absolutely crushing psychological damage this franchise, especially 13 seconds, which hurts worse now, has done to us. We feel the window close with every loss. Everything is out of proportion because of it.

Like, I just want to say, celebrate a Super Bowl with my dad, man. He'll be 67 next year. You know, you know me. I'm not like an emotional guy. Few things touch me. I really don't feel much in life. I thought that was so well said.

Like you and I can debate, you know, yeah, we have like a long devout, you know, EPA and film and success rate. And it's like, there's a lot of like baggage with that, with a lot of fan bases and with fandom in general. But with that Bill's fan base, particularly, in particular, you know, they're five and four. They've already lost war games this year. than they did last year. And I kind of feel like her sentiment, like that's not just a fan thing.

I kind of feel like that's a bill spray. Like Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, Sean McDermott. Like 2020, their one win away from the Super Bowl. 2021, 13 seconds. 2022, Damar Hamlin in the last month of the season. And now all of a sudden, they're five and four, and they're looking around. And Latavius Murray is calling players-only meetings. And they're like, what has happened to our team?

Did we just, like, blow this window? Yeah, go ahead. I went to Buffalo for training camps this year, and the piece that I wrote off of that, and the reason I went was just like walk around and be like, how's everybody doing? We okay? Like, because this, there's nothing harder in the NFL.

It is so much easier to be 500 than it is to be close, but not quite. Because the NFL is brutal in that way, right? Other sports seven game series, right? Long seasons, ton of games. If you don't get it done, it's because you didn't get it done. The NFL is a 17-game regular season, and it's one-off, one and done in the playoffs. That's brutal.

That's mean. So when you are as good as the bills have been, which the bills have been unequivocally, the second best offense, I would say probably the second best team over the last three years, but it just never actually like really, really taste the promised land.

That wears on a team and it absolutely wears on a fan base, especially a Jim Kelly four straight Super Bowl's fan base. Like it's just, I mean, it's tough to be a Bill's fan. I absolutely acknowledge that. Yeah, so that was, so we'll see. I mean, you were, you were, you know,

joke with me on Twitter. they had the players only meeting. Generally, my feeling on players only meeting is like, oh, no, this thing's about to downward spiral upcoming. They have no answers. They had the players only meeting this week. This is the bill's last opportunity for a pallet cleanse, right? If you look schedule-wise, they have Broncos and then they have jets, which jets aren't even

like that much of a pallet cleanse. The bill should know they lost them in week one. But Broncos, Jets win those games because after that you have Eagles, Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys in consecutive weeks. Ooh. This is it. If you don't write the ship here, you're going into stormy waters. Like, this is the opportunity.

I think, like, bills might win by 90 in this game just to make everything feel right. It's going to go one way or the other. I mean, it certainly could downward spiral, but you know what? I believe in the quarterback. I believe in the offense. I sort of believe in the infrastructure there. There's some cracks right now, but they're not out of it. I think the talent is still there.

I think they're going to turn around. You know what? I'll go ahead. I think Josh Allen, is going to have a monster second half of the season and win the MVP. How about that? I'm going to go on the record with that right here because their defense is not going to do it. Like he is going to have to be the best player in football or close to it for them to turn this thing around. So for this game specifically, Broncos defense has played much better, but I'm not, you know, buying them. It's home. It's Monday night in Buffalo. The fan base is going to be fired up. I think they have a convincing win that kind of resets their season on Monday night. Again, that line is minus seven. Bill's by seven. Yeah, no, I, I, I, Josh Allen's got the advanced metrics that an MVP quarterback typically has.

So it's like, all right, like, just keep doing what you're doing. And as long as the team success follows, then you should be in the conversation. It's the team success that you're worried about. But I, I don't disagree at all. Like, in terms of how they played, Allen's been a top five MVP candidate for me the entire season. He's playing outside of his mind. It's just his, his mistakes are magnified now because the defense can't, can't,

can't make up for a lot of the errors that they used to make up for him, right? They're not the same talent. Second game for me, Vikings plus three at home against the Saints. If I like the under- Oh, we got the same game. If I like the under in a game, I'm typically just going to like the dog just by virtue of the math. I especially like an opportunity where I think there's going to be a lot of turnovers.

There's going to be a lot of chaos opportunity for defensive touchdowns here. I also think that it'd be wrong to say, oh, well, Josh Dobbs was so good when he didn't know anybody. So imagine how good he be when he knows everybody. That's kind of like an oversimplification. but you have KJ Osborne returning from a concussion, limited practice on Thursday. They're hoping they can get him.

You have T.J. Hawkinson expected to play. Christian Derrissau is still a question mark. I don't think Justin Jefferson is going to play. But in general, the offensive reinforcements feel like they can be coming from Minnesota. We've already seen them coach around the fact that they don't have those guys. And Kevin O'Connell, we talked about in the Monday pot, is on a really, really good job making chicken salad out of what's available to him on the offense. So I like for their ability to present new things, to get the jump on the Saints,

to have Dobbs be successful within the offense, even if they aren't back to full health, if I get them with some surprising availability to get them at greater health, then all the better for it. I like the matchup for them, especially on defense, where I think that they're going to cause a lot of problems

for Derek Carter and for this Saints passing attack. So Vikings plus three, I think it's a fun look this week. That was my second pick too. So this is why Luke is so good with the spreadsheet. This has happened three times this season. We're two for three when Ben and Shield picked the same locker

the week, can we make it? Three for four with the Vikings plus three. You laid out the case well. To me, this is almost, this is like a buy-in on the vibes of the Vikings and fading the Saints, specifically the Saints offense against that Flores defense, which is all the way up to 10th in DVOA. So the duplicates, the duplicates this year I went and found them. We had Jets plus two against the Broncos in week five, which weird.

So long ago. Why did we do that? Very odd. Stupid. We had the Patriots minus two and a half against the Jets in week three, which was, I think that was Bill Belichick versus Zach Wilson, plug and chug, baby. We believed and we were right. And then we lost on Broncos minus three and a half at home against the commanders,

which is when they had like a 20-something point lead in the second half and they tossed it. Do you remember this? Horrible. Yes. Oh my gosh. Wow, we picked some terrible teams in those games. Broncos, Jets Patriots, Jets, Patriots, and now Viking Saints. Oh, gross.

There's something wrong with us. Now, listen, maybe we're getting suckered into the Dobbs, Minnesota story, but I don't know. Kevin O'Connell's done a really good job. Flores has done a really good job. Derek Carr, by the way, against the spread favored by three points or more in his career, 8, 25, and 2. That's from the Action Network. So I generally like to fade Derek Carr as a favorite there.

So I'm with you. All right, what do you have? Now, I've got this list here for my third one. So if you pick one of these, I'm not going to pick it because I don't want to have two that are the same as yours. So you tell me what you've got. I'll go with something else. So here are the two that I'm looking at. I'm looking at lines minus three on the road against the Chargers.

Talked about this previously. I was looking at that bad boy. I was looking at that alternate spread, baby, for my long shot. Minus six and a half, I think, gets you to plus 150. Yeah. And now I'm very curious, we haven't really talked about this game. I'm fascinated by this game. I'm thrilled by this game.

This is Texans of Bengals. I'm excited for this matchup a lot. I very much lean Texans plus six and a half with the absence of T. Higgins. Now, the Texans had about 40 players in the injury report on Thursday. And it feels like they had like an estimated injury report Wednesday and then an actual injury report Thursday where like a ton of guys were limited. So it feels like they're just resting dudes. The read that I get is that Nico Collins actually did tweak his calf during the week.

And accordingly, like, he's not going to play. Damien Pierce also might still be out, but like Laramie Tunsell could play. Derek Stanley could be back. Like there's good talent coming for the Texans. And with no T. Higgins, like I do. think of this as a game where the Texas are going to be able to get a couple of stops defensively, not a ton, they're going to be behind the whole game.

But we know that Stroud throws the football really well. I wouldn't be surprised that they're down by 10 in the fourth quarter pushing their way back in and they back door this. So I like Texas plus six and a half. But I also like, it's a rookie quarterback versus Lou. It goes against my core beliefs, the dogma of Ben Solac to take Texas plus six and a half. So I want to take Lions minus three.

That's what I want to do. But I'm curious what you think. Well, I've got, I like the best. Bengals, minus six and a half. So if you want to have a pickoff and you want to do the Texans and I'll do the Bengals, we could do that. Bengals, mine is,

that's a tough one. I went back and forth for a while. In the end, I'm like, maybe, you know, the CJ Strout's coming off that monster performance, like you said, but now going up against Captain Lou on the road.

Is he ready? Stop calling him that. Stop. Stop. Stop. Stop, stop. And then, you know, I'm looking at Baker Mayfield,

went down the field on that defense with that big dryer at the end of the game what's Joe Burrow going to do here? So the number felt a little high to me but ultimately I settled on the Bengals. So you know what? Looking at it and yeah, I had Lions minus 3 at Chargers

as one I was looking at. I had Ravens, but I already have a pick on them earlier in there. The Titans and the Raiders I like a little bit. Oh, you like the Raiders. I like the Jets. I was like, you know, okay.

Yeah, I was like, I'm on the Jets in that game. Because it's usually, the Jets makes sense, because usually you get the new coach bump, and then you want to fade the new coach bump the second week. But I was like, this new coach bump was so exciting for them that maybe it carries over to the second game. And also I just watched Zach Wilson play football on Monday night.

But I'm thinking about that Jets defense against Inde O'Connell, and it's making me feel a certain sort of way. Yeah, so Jemar Chase expected to play. There's too much uncertainty in Texans, Bengals. You brought up Titans, Buccaneers. I have Titans in Teasers at plus seven and a half. I have Texans and Teasers and Teasers. is a plus 12 and a half.

I'll take the Lions minus three. I just, if I knew more about this injury report, I'd be willing to go in on the Texans thing. But this is a, this is a game where if I, if I, if I take it straight against the spread,

I'll probably take it closer to kick off and we know who's playing and who isn't. Lions, charge, we talked about this a little bit. I think the Lions offense dramatically outclasses the Chargers defense. I think they're going to be able to run the ball

against this team because of the strength of their offensive line. And now Dave Montgomery back, they pretty much running against everybody. And then in the passing game, I mean, this is the sort of varied passing attack with a slot receiver threatened about at russain brown at tight end and sam lapporte and a back in jameer

gibbs that just causes you matchup headaches and the chargers do so much work to try to hide guys right try to hide kenneth murray try to hide eric kendrix who's just like a little bit old you know alohy gilman they play him deep when he's got to be in coverage he's just not the quickest guy and so they have so many dudes that they try to work around in in that back seven and there's just there's just too much matchup potential uh with what the lions have i think you're going to see jerry golf have a really really successful day throwing the ball. I looked at like Jared Gough over 273, 300 plus alternates when I was thinking of bets for this. I think the lines are going to outpace that offense.

And then for the Chargers, I cannot trust this pass protection. I've just seen it too much at this point. The right side of the line is such an issue for them where even if like I think, oh, matchup-wise, this Detroit secondary is getable, I don't think Herbert's going to have time in the pocket. He's taking an ungodly amount of hits this year. I don't trust that offense. I like lines minus three. Yeah, I like that.

I mean, they're a better coach team. They're healthier. The matchup is good for them. That Chargers offense, I know it was the Jets defense, but my gosh, that was hard to watch that Chargers offense earlier this week. And I'm never going to really buy into the Chargers defense unless they, like, I need a sustained run of success. Like, you're not going up against Zach Wilson.

Like, this baby's going to be schemed up. I looked at those overs too. I'm on Ross St. Brown. Sam Laporte. I was looking at those when I was doing props of the week as well. Didn't settle on any of them. But I agree with you, Lyons. should be able to move the football hard.

You take the Lions minus three. I'll go ahead and stick with the Bengals. Bengals minus six and a half at home. Right after I say too many injuries in this game for me, she was like, yeah, I'm going for it. Yeah, I mean, what am I going to do? Titans plus one and a half? Am I going to feel better about that on Sunday afternoon

when I'm sitting there and, you know, they're in Tampa and the pilot ship? I don't know. Maybe. I will not. I will take Bengals minus six and a half. I win by a touchdown and I go ahead and I cover that one. All right. decides. If those guys are injured, I get a little Andre

Yoshavos, you know, tear it up and have three touchdowns in that game. All over. Charlie Jones also healthy. We just have a day for Bengals. If T doesn't play, and then for whatever reason, Jemar can't play, they expect him to play, let's say he can't. And Burrow walks out there and just shreds it up with Tyler Boyd, Charlie Jones, and Andre Osavas. That's headline the Monday. I can see that. 100%. This is a... sample, yeah. Burrow,

Burrow, doing such a good season for Burrow politically in terms of setting expectations. Burrow walked down in week one was playing like he is playing right now.

We'd all be like, Joe Burroughs good, we all knew it, great, looking awesome. The first few weeks, lower that bar, calf injury, ugly offense,

horrible. This last month, Burrow, the best he's ever liked. He's incredible. It's all just relative measures. He's playing great ball. He's fun to watch.

It's a great life lesson. You all, like, lower people's expectations of you. And it's easier to outperform those. Don't set the bar high. Why do people think we're below 50% against the spread right now?

It's the first half of the season. Yeah, a little lower. And then second half of the season, look at how they fit. It's so strong. Whoa, figuring out the league, incredible. Listen, as I tweeted out, the color guy for the 76ers during my youth, Steve Mix used to say first half for show, second half for dough. There you go.

Second half, baby, we're making a comeback on extra point taken. All right. Give us the recap for your picks this week. What do you got? Derek Henry, at least 14 receiving yards against the Buccaneers is my prop of the week. For my long shot of the week, we're taking Saints of Vikings under 42 and a half. We're taking, or wait, I have those numbers wrong. Excuse me.

We're taking Saints Vikings. I clicked out of it, of course I did. Where's my dock? There it is. I can go here. Saints Vikings under 42 and a half. Packer still is under 41 and a half. The problem is I have to take a screenshot of it because I need to make sure it's plus 150 at the time,

it changes. So under 42 and a half Saints, Vikings, under 41 and a half Steelers, Packers, and then my locks of the week, Niners minus three on the road against the Jags, Lions minus three on the road against the Chargers, and Vikings plus three at home against the Saints. All right, I've got my prop of the week, the squeaky wheel prop. George Pickens, over 41.5 receiving yards, any wide receiver who complains, I'm taking the over the following week. Long shot of the week. Let's call this the shield steals a line from the Solek playbook. Long shot of the week. Ravens Money Line, Deshawn Watson, under 193.5 passing yards. Cowboys alternate spread minus two and a half against the Giants. That gets you to plus 151 in long shot territory.

And then the locks of the week, bills minus seven, home against the Broncos. I cannot give up on the bill. This is the week they get right, right? The players only meeting. They're going to be good. Vikings plus three against the Saints. So Lex got that one also. And then I'm sticking with Bengals minus six and a half. against the Texans. There you go. Those are the picks of the week. Let's see what the spreadsheet. Oh, hello.

Leave it in. Of course, we don't edit here. The spreadsheet looks like this week. There's a psalm that gets read in services often where the phraseology is like, he shall sit. And whenever I was reading it growing up, shall sit is a tough one. He shall sit, he shall sit, he shall sit, he shall sit. It was real challenging.

And all of a sudden you get it wrong. And that was down the tough one in church. That one never went well. Well, listen, if we both go over seven this week, it won't be a spreadsheet. It'll be what I accidentally said there. But let's hope that that's not the case. Thank you to Ben Soak.

Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampa putting out these awesome videos. You can find them on all the Ringer NFL social media channels from this show. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday night. recapping all of the week 10 games. Be sure to check that out. Solek and I will be back Monday night after Bill's Bengals will recap that game

and talk about everything else we saw. All right. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend and we will talk to you next week. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem? Call 100 gambler or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia.

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