The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 11 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: November 17, 2023

Sheil and Ben set the table for Week 11 NFL action, but first address the serious injuries to Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews coming out of the Bengals-Ravens 'Thursday Night Football' matchup. Are the Bengals officially out of the playoff race? Plus, the Chiefs and Eagles are set to face-off in a rematch of last season's Super Bowl. Do the Eagles have anyone that can cover Travis Kelce? The guys also have Monday morning headlines, picks of the week, nonsense predictions, and more! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point Take and Shield Kabati here joined by Ben Solac. We just watched a bummer of a game with Joe Burrow exiting in the second quarter with what the team described as a wrist injury. Ravens win, 3420. Nice win for them. But obviously the big story is Joe Burrow with a huge impact on the AFC playoff picture,

potentially the Super Bowl picture. We'll see. We're recording this right after the game, so we don't have the full details yet. But we'll talk about that game. We'll talk about Burrow. We'll turn the page. We'll look ahead to the week 11 slate

with our usual props, locks, and predictions. Benny Souls. Was that you flying the drones around M&T Bank Stadium that Michael's found so humorous? The youths with their machines, enough for the children, ruining my sporting events.

No. The multiple drone stoppages were great. They were mostly great because it meant Al Michaels had to be like, we're stopping because of a drone. And then you could tell he just had like no sense of what really was going to ask for usual with Al Michaels. Yeah, fun, fun stoppage is there. I really like for 10 weeks, I was whining about Thursday night football. Oh, you want better games, whatever. And I'd forgotten about how you get late in the season at Thursday night football as it comes an injury fest. And I, I've forgotten. Like, I knew it academically, but I've forgotten that that was a

thing that happens. And then we get a Thursday night football game, Bengals Ravens such high stakes. And you just have star players dropping like flies left and right. Just totally sucks. It would be really nice if Thursday night football didn't come with injuries all of the time. That's still a thing. And it's horrible to remember it. And it's going to be a thing that's going to happen every week on out. Yeah, I was having bad thoughts about like it sort of happens every year where you get to this point of the season and you feel like you are, what teams are good, what teams are interesting. and all of a sudden, key players go down at this stage of the season

and it just changes everything. So we'll stay with Burrough. So for those who weren't watching the game, you know, Burrow leaves the game in the second quarter, he throws the touchdown to Joe Mixin. Then the camera goes to him and he is in obvious pain right there.

He goes to the sideline. He tries to throw the football, cannot throw the football, obviously frustrated, goes to the locker room. This is after the Bengals, you know, uh,

team account, it out a video or a photo of Joe Burrow coming off the team plane and he had some type of brace or something on his right wrist. They delete it, but come on, the year is 2023. There are screen grabs of literally every single thing on the internet. You cannot hide that. So that was circulating. So obviously this was something he was dealing with coming in here. So Bengals go to five and five. We don't know what Burroughs availability is going to be. I mean, this is huge. So like, I mean, I think I would, you know, we both had the Bengals to win the AFC North coming into the season. It was just weeks ago.

We're looking at them beating the 49ers. They're beating the bills. I'm saying, you know, like as recently as last week, I was like, I still think the Bengals are going to win the Super Bowl. They have that type of ceiling. And we're talking about what, four or five teams in the AFC that can come out of the AFC and get to the Super Bowl. So nothing was a given. But, man, I just love watching Borough play.

I love when Burrow is in big games in December. in January, those images of him after the game just having a high five with his left hand and couldn't even put the right hand out there. That was tough to see. So we'll see what happens. But I mean, this is pretty much as if he's out for even two, three weeks. I mean, you have to think it's just not the Bengals year this season. Did you see that shot of his hand when he first came off the field when they had the camera zoomed down on his throwing hand? I did not, I saw people talking about it, but I did not see it. I mean like it looked like a great, it looked, it was too big and the fingers were too small

and it was not correct. And I was like, when did he get injured? Like I missed this on Sunday, this bracing, this was crazy. And then you're watching him play and like, you know, three, four plays in. I'm like, all right, he's fine, cool. Like, he's clearly bending it for chilling. And then it reagravates the injury like after the touchdown. Oh my gosh.

Like, what would it be? What will it be? I'm like, he probably maybe come back in, he was able to play. And then they show that shot of his hand when he came off the field. And I was like, he's got a club hand. Like, you can't do anything with this. I was so surprised to see that particular shot of his hand as swollen as it appeared to be. That's like, that's got a matter.

I don't know how health works in the body, but I feel like that's not one that goes away. Bengals right now are five and five. They play the Steelers, the Jaguars, the Colts, the Vikings, the Steelers. was again the chiefs and the browns. You have what all of those teams share, Sheal? What's that? Not one of them has a losing record.

It is a tough schedule going through. And this is why that first month of the season when they were playing Burrell when he wasn't healthy was so frustrating was because it was like, all right, like, you, he might be able to get healthy faster calf-wise and feel better calf-wise if you just sit him, but they throw him out their side of the season. They begin the season one and three. They barely eat by the Rams to get like lambasted by the Titans. If you had,

if you had sat in for the first two weeks, maybe he's healthy for that Titans game. Maybe you're six and four right now. And that would matter so much more in the postseason picture. But here they are at five and five. They have a tough schedule left. I feel like we are approaching a Bengals list playoffs as crazy as it is to think of. Yeah,

looks like Zach Taylor. Oh my gosh. We have breaking bad injury news here. So like so Burrow, it looks like has a sprained right wrist, Zach Taylor, bold reporters. And then on the other side, Ravens coach John Harbaugh says Mark Andrews has a likely season-ending ankle injury. So it's on both sides here. Mark Andrews, season-ending ankle injury,

according to John Harbaugh and then Joe Burrow with a sprained right wrist. That Mark Andrews thing sucks, man. Yeah. There, ah, that blows. Yeah, I mean, they look like, all right, so let here, let's close the, let's close the book here on the Bengals and then move on to the Raven. So brain right wrist. We don't know what that means how long he's going to be out. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for sending that link in there.

If there's any other news there, we'll talk about it here. But yeah, I'm with you. I mean, I just think if Burrow misses any time, they're out of the playoffs, even if he's healthy, they face a little bit of a uphill climb. I'll never doubt them. If he is healthy and like the wrist is okay, you don't know what version of Burrow you're getting back even if he were to come back. So we'll talk about that more probably in the days ahead as we get more details. If you're a if you're a Bengals fan, hang in there. It's a bummer. It just feels like,

you know, not your season. Sometimes you have seasons like this. You still have a lot of seasons with Joe Burrow if in fact he's going to miss time here and this one is over. All right, let's move over to the Ravens, who, you know, they get to eight and three. They're in the driver's seat. If Chiefs lose on Monday night, they have the one seed. And And now all of a sudden, this news here with Mark Andrews being out for the season, according to John Harbaugh. I mean, what are your initial thoughts here? Like, what does this do in terms of the expectations, in terms of their ceiling, in terms of

the offense? Yeah, I don't know if these numbers are still accurate after this game with Andrews out, but when I was looking at props and bets before this game, Andrew is the Ravens primary target getter in the two-minute drill in the red zone and on third down. He is the trust. He's the guy that Lamar is going to be, where he is going to be. expects him to be and make the cash that he expects him to make, right? Like, like, uh, they've, they've done a lot of work at these receivers. So many reps together. I mean, think of all the

reps together. Those guys have had. It's crazy. And Lamar is a, like, Lamar likes to throw out of structure. He throws with like a little bit of weird timing. It throws with weird placement. He's always been like a very, very creative improvisational passer. And so developing that relationship takes time. It's not plug and chug. Or we put in these new receivers, they flowers, Odo Beckham Jr. And you've seen that this year, right? Uh, and, a lot of those receivers too, like Odell and Zay, of Rashad Bateman as well, tend to be a little like,

in their routes. Like, they tend to freelance a little bit as well. Andrews, who like, Andrews is liable for a bad drop himself and for like a mistake route himself. But in the world of this Ravens' passing offense, he was the stabilizing force. He was the reliable thing.

He is a very, very, very big loss to the trustworthiness of this offense. He also, because he plays tight end and because he moves him around, he presents more of a schematic challenge, Whereas if you are the, like, let's say the Miami Dolphins, right, with Jalen Ramsey back. And you have Jailen Ramsey and you have Cater Koh who in the slot, you have Zavian Howard on the outside. You line your three up against the Ravens three of three receivers and you feel pretty good about that.

Like there are now defenses. I think they can face the AFC playoff run who feel like they can just match up. And they don't really have to worry about solving schematic problems defensively in the passing game. They should play man and live. The Andrew's absence is a huge deal. You saw Isaiah likely, Lamar was a couple targets with him where they miscommunicated. Lamar's getting frustrated. He's like patting him on the back in the way back into the huddle. Likely is a good

athlete, but he is not nearly the replacement in terms of reliability that Andrews was. It's a very big deal. Yeah, there's no doubt about it, 544 yards on the season, second on the team to only Zay Flowers. And again, those guys have just played together since Lamar Jackson came into

the league. All those offenses everybody was complaining about with Greg Roman, their answer in the passing game was throw the ball to Mark Andrews over and over and over again. I did the trade value column before the season. And the only tight end I had on there at the time was Mark Andrews because I was just like, who's the guy who's the right age, who's still a dynamic pass catch. Wow, Dallas got a erasure. Yeah, that's right. Dallas. What was Dallas got it on there? I don't remember. By the way, I know it's on IR now too, man. The young tight ends, they're going.

I think that might have been in durability issue. So that is a bummer for Mark Andrews. I don't see anything yet on O'Dell Beckham Jr. I know he was, he's been coming. on. I mean, some of those slants where he starts moving after the catch now two weeks in a row, it's like, ooh, this looks like old school Odell Beckham Jr. So I don't see any updates on whether his injury was serious or not. But now you're looking at an offense. Isaiah likely steps up at tight end. Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, Rashad Bateman, Nelson Aguilar, you know, we'll see what that looks like. They'll have a very good team. They can win games in different ways. the Ravens have that going for them, whether it's offense, defense, whether it's running the

football. But that certainly is a big blow for Baltimore. Oh, man. What, what a, yeah, this is, this is a bummer. Like, I was expecting, we're going to come on and talk about this classic. Ray, I was even the first court is 10-7 after Burrow throws that touchdown. I'm like, oh, we're getting a good one here. Yeah. Yeah. And then, and now the story becomes injuries from this game. All right. What did I miss? What else do we need to get to from this game before we move on to the rest of week 11. Yeah, two things I would say would be, uh, firstly I saw Nate Tice tweet this out. The Ravens now 44 sacks through the first 11 weeks of the season. That ties the New Orleans Saints for the best, uh, I think the 2000 New Orleans Saints for the best defense since 2000

on terms of sacks through 11 games. Again, the primary sack getter on this team is Kyle Van Nuoy. I, one of the most stunning defensive achievements this year across the board is the Ravens pass rush just being like, yeah, I want to think, oh, like, Geneva Cloud and Calvin, no, I don't worry about it, we're fine. And being absolutely successful. It's so hard to be a really dominant defense

without dominant edge rushers, without dominant pass rushers, and the Ravens are absolutely that right now. So really threading a needle there. That's impressive to see. On the other side of the ball, I think it is worth mentioning. We did our defense of preseason predictions,

which is probably just the worst preseason prediction episode. I've done in my entire career at this point, where I said, hey, the Cincinnati Bengals, every top five defense. You can be able to replace the safeties that they missed. And Trey Hendrickson's a star. And Sam Hubbard is such a great second rush.

There's so many good pieces. They'll be fine. They're now the second worst defense by success rate in the league. What? Not great. They've dealt with injuries up front and that's been a part of that. But in general, that secondary has really left them in some tricky spots with the injuries with

the shaky play of rookies kind of up and down. They're just, they are liable in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. You saw the defensive pass in her, with penalties, that's been a big part of it. They also just give up a ton of completions. And then the run defense hasn't been the same. I don't know if it's because they're kind of sacrificing some integrity in the running

game to try to be more creative up front to get after the passer. I still think they're a well-schemed up defense. They often come in with the sort of game plan that you'd like to see against top opponents and specific offenses. But it really feels like they're, that run defense, they've lost a lot of their stuff. And I don't know, like players-wise, it's a lot of the same dues they've been successful with the last couple of years. so I feel like maybe they're selling out for the bass rush.

Other than that, difficult to explain. But this Bengals defense really fell off a cliff last year into this year. Departures of Von Bell and Jesse Bates thought they could get around it. Turns out losing over 2000 or snaps at safety is maybe a little bit more challenging than Ben made it up to be in August. Yeah, 29th and DVOA against the run. And they gave up the second most completions of 20 plus yards coming into the game. Like those are too bad. Yeah, they're sick against a wide receiver screen.

though. Oh, baby, they're mean. Short yard is one. They're great. Everything else not good. And like, honestly, I do feel like if they were in a playoff game, we would still be like, they've got a chance. Oh, yeah. You know what I mean? Like in a one-off scenario, and that's a lot of defenses around the NFL. Like the stats might not look good, but do you trust someone in a one-off scenario? So there you go. Last thing on the Ravens, they also have a very tough schedule. They have the second hardest schedule in the NFL remaining according to unpredictable, which looks at the betting markets. They were playing without Ronnie Stanley left tackle today.

They were playing without Marlon Humphrey, their top corner today. And now Mark Andrews is out. So, man, it is that time of year where some of these rosters are just depleted. And some of the players we love watching to play football are not going to be out there. So again, we'll continue to talk more about those teams. But let's look ahead, Benjamin Solac to the rest of week 11. I think the obvious big headliner game. We don't need a lot of mystery for this one.

We got a Super Bowl rematch on Monday night. Eagles go to Duke, Kansas City to take on the chief. So what is your, you know, you're an eagle. I'm sure everybody's asking you about your thoughts on the game. What are like the main things about this game that make you most excited or that you want to see or that you have questions about or that you're going to be watching? Like what aspects of this game have your attention? Every single one of them. Like seriously.

There are a lot. Yeah. When the Eagles hold the ball, you have a Jalen Hertz last time he saw the Steve Spagnolo defense. He lit it up like a Christmas tree, right? Most successful, most prolific passing performance, quarterback performance of a losing quarterback in Super Bowl history, right? Well, guess what? It's your mama, Steve Spagnolo defense. This is a lot different of a unit and it was last year, a lot more successful of a unit. Now, the Chiefs are liable in the running game, 23rd right now and rush defense success rates. So for as good as this unit that has been, that's what's been holding them back. I think it's an enormous DeAndre Swift game. I think it's an enormous carry

game. I think it's a 12 play, 13 play, salt the clock, eat the clock, sort of drive. Similar to what you saw the Eagles try to deploy against Miami, where even when they are passing the football, they're not so much oriented on let's rip off some chunks. They're saying, right, we'll take them if you give them to us, but in general, we want to possess this football. So I think a big Swift day, then a big Jalen Hurst carries the football day as well. Hertz obviously has had the knee. He's been banged up. He's been wearing a brace. He's been limping. He's off the by. And so, very interested to see what his health looks like with that knee injury, but it's probably going to be better now than it's been at any point in the last month,

month or a half because of the extra week of rest. And so I think that you could see Hertz get really involved in the game of his legs as well. So you have that. You also have, again, when the Eagles possess the football, the aspect of Jalen Hertz against the Blitz, the fourth most blitz quarterback in the league right now. Hertz has historically been a shakier quarterback against the Blitz over the course of his career. This season, pretty okay, pretty good.

but also if you go and you delve into the numbers, like six 90-yard AJ Brown completions are doing a lot of work there, right? Where hurts against the blitz tends to be an extremely polar figure, right? If he can get that one-on-one and put the ball up in the air, it can be a six-point play. Otherwise, when you muddy the pocket for him, which the best thing Steve Fagnolo does is to create muddy pockets,

you'll see him shut down a little bit. You'll see his eyes drop, see his hands drop, and he leaves that world as a thrower and becomes a runner. becomes a scrambler, and that's where you can, I think, be successful and get him. And so Hurts against the Blitz has always been something that has mattered over the course of his career matters this year as well. That's Eagles offense. When the Chiefs offense holds the football, it's what does this unit continue to look like, right?

You have getable matchups for the Eagles. If they have Bradley Roe be available for this game in the nickel, then they're technically at full strength in the secondary. But in general, this is a secondary that you've been able to pick on over the course of this season. Travis Kelsey in particular. Eagles, one of the worst defense in the league success rate-wise against tight-end targets, known to Kobe Dean in this game.

He's been knocked out on injured reserve. So it's going to be the safety tight-end or, excuse me, safety linebacker collective of Nicholas Morrow, Zach Cunningham, Reed, Blankenship, Sidney Brown, and Kevin Byard covering Travis Kelsey. I would throw the ball at Travis Kelsey. And I think the Eagles' lack of answers for Travis Kelsey could be a deciding factor in this game. So every way, no matter who is holding. of the ball and what they're doing when they're holding it. I mean, there's an interesting

through line in this game for sure. Yeah, Hertz is knee and like, I want to see what he looks like athletically. I mean, I watched the film in the Super Bowl this week for the ringers Philly special and man, Hertz is making plays with his legs all over the way. Looks a little quicker. You can just, I mean, it just was like, oh yeah, okay, I remember what it looked like when he looked like that. And the truth is, we don't know. Like, is, you know, a bi-week enough to make that knee injury feel a lot better to the point where he looks like that again? Or is this just something he has to deal with the rest of the season? So I think we're going to get answers to that for sure in this game. It's funny looking at that Super Bowl matchup with like Hertz for, you know,

versus Spagnolo's defense. I actually thought like Spagnolo won the like on the chalkboard matchup there. Like I thought that Hertz was just incredible in the game. AJ Brown was incredible in the game. Devante Smith was incredible in the game. There weren't a lot of like, oh, you know, Eagle scheme that up. And wow, they really, you know, ate bags this lunch there. Like, I didn't, you know, that's not how I viewed it. I thought it was incredible individual offensive performances in that game. So, yeah, I think it will be fun to see, like, how does it look different here in this game now that they meet again?

And then, yeah, the other side of the ball, listen, Eagles defense, last time we saw them, Dak Prescott was absolutely dissecting them, tearing them apart. they got a couple big sacks at the end. But other than that, man, he was going up and down the field against them. And they just don't have a lot of answers. You know, they make that trade for Kevin Byrd. So, like, I didn't realize this until I was looking at up today. Kevin Byard has not touched a football in the air this season.

Like, he doesn't have a pass breakup. He doesn't have an interception. He's played over 500 snaps of defense. And if you watch that Cowboys game, man, they were sure looking to get like a Jake Ferguson on Kevin Byer in man coverage and just, you know, hunting him over and over again. Now, he was in a tough spot. He joined the Eagles in the middle part.

You know, he joined the Eagles via in-season trade from the Titans. He's out there playing 100 snaps right away. So that's the other thing. They're coming off a buy. What does it look like with him? He's actually, I think, a key player for this Eagles defense in the second half of the season. And against Kelsey, like, this is a game where this is the ultimate, don't let that guy beat you game.

And I think most defenses go into playing the Chiefs now just like that. like Rashi Rice, all right, you know, Marquez Beldes, Gantling, okay, don't let Travis Kelsey be the guy who's just going to beat you over and over and over again. Now, you could have said that when the Eagles played the Cowboys a couple weeks ago, and C.D. Liam had what, 190 yards or something?

So easier for me to say than for them to execute. The Eagles regularly flaunt the rules of the don't let that guy beat you, adage, and then also win the game. They are, they're like kind of the one that's immune to it. The first prop I went to look for for the head in the show was Travis Kelsey for the over. I think that they do not have personnel answers for Kelsey. And then I also

don't think they have structural answers for Kelsey. Like if you if you want to double a tight end, go ahead. They're just going to hide them in the core of the formation and they're going to screw with you in terms of like throwing wide receiver screens and and running the ball and just like you can try to do it. Because you're going to your numbers wise, it's really, really hard to double someone who's in the core of the formation like Kelsey will line up. And so they can try it. But I, uh, no. Fandle line posted for Travis Kelsey receiving yards. And accordingly, a no

Travis Kelsey bet for Ben later in the show. But that's the player if you're the Chiefs where if you get Kelsey activated, which from what I understand, Taylor Swift will be attending this game and that's something that matters and so he'll perform well. That, you get him activated. You feel like you're going to succeed

on offense. I'm very interested to see, we talked about Travis Kelsey. I'm very excited to see what Rishie Rice looks like in this game. As we typically know, rookie players, especially rookie skill position players, will get a bump after the buy because there's a internal evaluation that happens on the staff. You look back and you say, okay, where do we like her guys?

Who do we like? And for this Chiefs team, Rishi Rice has remarkably been the most reliable receiver that they've had. Three of the last four games, had at least four targets, at least 55 yards, and all of those. He plays on the outside. He can win contested catch. He can also win after the catch, and they've been using him as a design touch player, was very quiet against the dolphins, had the touchdown, but only two receptions.

I would not be surprised if we see a high volume Rashid Rice game as well as they decide, okay, now we're moving into the back half of the season where we're going to give the rookie the trust that he's earned and make him kind of our primary target at receiver while Kelsey continues to dominate a tight end. That's the other big story. I think I have more concerns about this Chiefs offense than you do, just watching them through the first, whatever it was 10 weeks of the season statistically nowhere near what we're used to seeing with the Chiefs at the same time.

Are they still top five, top eight in every statistical category? Yes, but now Andy Reid has the buy. Did you hear this story? Like Andy Reid told Nick Siriani that like during the buy in Philadelphia every year, he would take his wife to like New York, stay at this specific hotel and like go see a Broadway show. And now like Nick Siriani is doing the exact same thing that Andy Reid did when he was the coach of the Eagles. In terms of like perceived friends, we have one of the greatest matchups Navy in history of like Andy Reid off a bye. There's 31 and 6 and his career off the buy versus Nick Siriani in a juice spot, right?

Which like we don't have data yet on Nick Sirriani in a juice spot. But Nick Seriani like last year against the Colts said screaming, this is for Frank Reich on the Colts sideline if they fired him Jeff Saturday. Like Nick Seriani loves a billboard item. Anything you put up on the bulletin board. Revenge, yes. Yeah, anything. It's the Chiefs after a Super Bowl loss. Like, Sirianic, I'm praying the Eagles social team gets a camera somewhere into a locker room

pregame so I can get just a glimpse of what Sirianna's got going on. But this is truly like Andy at his pinnacle off a week rest in New York hanging out with the wife and Sirianna at his pinnacle with like a clear juice spot. This is unstoppable force and removable object. Very excited to see it. Yeah, I don't know if Andy's. still does the New York thing or if that was Philadelphia only. You might have a different routine in case he still wins after the buy every week.

But don't you just, I just picture him like out at dinner with his wife and like, you know, drawing something on a nap. Oh yeah, okay, drawn some scheme up on a napkin like, oh, we'll just do this when I get back. And all of a sudden they're going to come back and their offense is going to be scoring 35 points a game or something. So I'm curious to see what he comes up with now that he's had some time to sit back and figure out what the issues are.

Last thing I'll say about this game, winning QB, probably the MVP for Frontrunner, I think, in this game. I think right now, Mahomes is one. And just in fan dual odds, I think Mahomes was one and Hertz was two actually right now. And you and I, the one thing we did, you know, at least analyzed correctly, maybe the only thing before the season was that like, the MVP is very predictable. It's the one or the two seed. It's the quarterback of the one or the two seed in one of the conferences. And Eagles win this game.

They're going to have still be in the driver's seat for the one seat in the NFC. and same thing for the Chiefs in the AFC. So still a lot of time left, but I think both those guys are certainly going to be in the mix down the stretch along with Lamar and I don't know. Who am I missing now?

I just went to pull up the odds and I think the market is shut right now. I suppose the burrow injury and the Lamar injury has just Fandall taking the market down at this point. I definitely agree that winner of that game will probably be in pole position. I'm still of the camp that, like,

I watch Lamar play and I'm like, this is what it looks like. I still think that he's, my leading horse in the race. But absolutely, winner of this game is going to get big, big bump in the polls, for sure. Big bum. All right. Let's take a break. We come back.

We'll talk about what we think the Monday morning storyline is going to be this week. And then we will get to some of our picks for week 11. All right. We are back on extra point taking. I feel like I need a deep breath

after, you know, the recap of the red. We're just such a bummer. Such a bummer. Hopefully, who knows? We'll see. We'll see what the updates are. All right. Looking ahead, Monday morning, Benjamin Solac. What are we talking about around the NFL? What do you got?

I think we're talking about new OC, same problems for the Buffalo Bills. And that's because the offense wasn't the problem, man. Ken Dorsey's office coordinator of Buffalo Bills. What would I sound like if I got as excited as you in any aspect of my... I'm going to try... I should go for you as Halloween next. year and just do a show where I'm just like very excited about. Because I like when you get excited. I like to go to the excitement zoo. I just don't like to be excited myself. I have one major piece of

advice and it's just make sure you lean away from the mic when you do the gag. Otherwise, the producers, they don't like you as much. They definitely don't like me, period. I know Cliffs on here being like every time Ben screams, I got to write it down on a notepad so I know go to lower the gain. I get it. I still think the producers also slow me down when I'm talking. Separate conversation. Ken Dorsey's fired by the as the office coordinator of the Buffalo Bills. Sheel and I talked about this Bills team a lot. We talked about it before they played the Bengals.

We talked about them really after they played the Bengals. He and I are both to the opinion that the offense was not really an issue for this team. The problem was how many turnovers they had, some of which is noise, right? Fumbles is always going to be a luck thing. The coaches wanted to be a coaching thing. It tends to be a luck thing. And then interceptions, which Josh Allen has always been an aggressive thrower.

He's always been a high interception thrower. this year has been PFF Sam Monson tweeted out the highest interception number of his career is rookie season while also the lowest turnover-worthy play percentage season says the rookie season. It's just bad luck.

The ones that he's throwing are getting caught by the DBSs. They've been on the Jugs machine. It's just, it's been that nature to it. The problem is, is that when you're Sean McDermott and your team hasn't been successful in the postseason and you moved on from your defensive coordinator to fix that unit, and then you get into this season and the defense isn't fixed because of injuries and your 500, you have the

office coordinator, that way something might change and you might get better and you might get the playoffs so that way you get to keep your job. Number two job, Sheal, is to win the games. The number one job, keep the job. The Sean McDermott is holding down the fort as best he can. Dorsey's out. Joe Brady is in. For those who are like, Joe Brady, where do I know that name before? When Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers went on their unbelievable historic offensive run in college football. Joe Brady was that offensive coordinator. He opted to the league. He's now the quarterback's coach of the bill's

interim offensive coordinator. I think they'll do a couple of different things, creative things. I think that they'll have a good time. They're playing the Jets this weekend. And so I don't think that their offensive performance will be incredible because the Jets' defense is just going to kind of hold things down. So long as they avoid the three interception performance they got from Allen in week one, I think they'll play

well enough to score enough points and win and beat Zach Wilson. But I don't think we're going to watch this Bill's team, drop 40 on the Jets, win by 20 and look like the juggernaut they once did, they're going to look like roughly the same team, a team with defensive liabilities because of injuries, and volatile offensive performance because of their turnover prone nature.

And so different O.C., same result. Yeah, we did that show Monday night, right? And then he got in, and then, I mean, I didn't even think it was in the realm of possibilities. But because just, I mean, you look at that game on Monday night. It's like a ball goes through. Gabe Davis's hands, you know, there was another one. It's like some of that stuff is just not, I don't know, that's not on the coordinator.

It's like your defense. Ken Dorsey called the drop play from the booth. You can never call the drop play. It's a very bad play to call. That's my knowledge here, my tip to you. And then you're, you know, as you called McDermott out for during that show, I mean, you're going zero blitz. The second time in a row, the first time was good.

Second time, that was bad. And you're getting a pass interference. and then you're not getting the right people on the field for the field goal at the end. Like if you have 11 people on field goal, there at the end and they miss the field goal, Ken Dorsey is still the offensive coordinator. Think of how stupid that is.

Yes. Think of how stupid that is. Welcome to the NFL. Little stuff like that, but it's true. That's absolutely true. They win that game, missed field goal.

They spin it into, well, you know, we did what it took to win. We got, yeah, whatever. And we're having a totally, different conversation here. So that's a good one. Certainly, I'm with you. Like, I don't know. I'm just tired of being hurt by the bills. I feel like I've come on here, you know, since the start of the show last season and just been like, no, no, no, bills are good. No, no, trust me. Bills are going to be okay.

No, no, don't worry about the bills. Now I'm just like, all right, I like wash my hands of it. You know, if the Jets just like put them out of their misery this week, that's fine with me. because they just have all the signs of a, and I do think the one thing we got right on Monday is they lack a steady hand. You know, it doesn't feel stable. Players only meeting, firing the OC, fire the defensive coordinator after last season late.

You know, Stefan Diggs is answering his brother's tweeting, and so he's answering questions about that. It's like, what is happening with this team? Is there anyone who can just be like everyone, take a deep breath? We're good. We still have a chance here. It doesn't feel like that. And Sean McDermott is a very important.

tense, serious coach. Like he's done, you know, for the most part, they've won a lot of games, certainly more games than coaches had won there in a while in Buffalo. But, man, at this point, maybe after hearing that message over and over again, it just feels like, you know, they're in a tough spot emotionally.

All right, my Monday morning storyline kind of jumps off that. I think we're going to be talking about how wide open this AFC wildcard races. I mean, the events of the last two weeks here you got the bills falling apart you have the Sean Watson injury now you have the Joe Burrow injury

we're going to have one seven win wildcard team it'll be either the Steelers of the Browns whoever wins that game then Ben we will have we could have a scenario where nine teams have five or six wins in the AFC nine teams battling for two

wildcard spots I'm talking about the Browns the Texans the Bengals who still you know they're five and five the Colts The bills, you know, they get an impressive win, then people, oh, well, they're still, okay, they're still right there in it. The Raiders who are somehow, who somehow have an interim coach.

Antonio Pierce, baby. And they're starting a rookie quarterback. It was just a little too early on the AFC West teams. That's right. A little bit mid-season was the move. Yeah, they got Antonio Pierce coaching Aiden O'Connell, and they're somehow 500. If the Chargers beat the Packers, they're going to have five wins. They're favorite in that game.

If the Broncos beat the Vikings. They're going to have five wins. They're favorite in that games. Jets, if they beat the bills, again, not likely, but they could have five wins. So you could have one, two, again, three, four, nine teams with five or six wins. And I think we very well could be coming on here on Monday night for extra point taken and having a kind of call hour shots. Hey, here are, you know, here are the two teams that are going to win the wildcard spots in the

AFC because you really could go in a number of different directions. So there you go. That's my Monday morning. storyline. I love that that's your Monday morning storyline because after the Bengals lost this game, I got a text from a football buddy that was like, all right, AFC playoffs are finally clear. Pretty obvious now. Like, Bengals are going to be out. Bills are going to be out. Bill's going to be out. Like, we're all good. And no one knows what's going on in the AFC. The AFC is a total, in a total complete mess. I have the idea that I, I am positive that whoever

you think the seven teams, I want everybody to respond to this podcast. Email me, respond to the tweet with the exact seven teams that are going to make the AFC playoffs. I promise you none of you are going to be correct. It's too chaotic. Nobody knows. The Dorian Thompson-Robbins and Browns are going to make it. The Antonio Pierce Raiders are going to make it. The Broncos are going to be weird. Nobody knows.

It's a mess and I love it. Broncos aren't dead yet. All right. I do it. Your Texans one is looking very, very attractive. Yeah. Listen. Texans getting in it. If we want to say something to make fun of

Ben because Ben shouldn't say it because it doesn't matter because it's bad and it's bad to look at it. I did check the Chargers playoff percentage chance earlier this week. And it's like 30. Like everybody's live, dude. It's a mess of a conference. Everybody's alive. All right. Speaking of which, are we alive? It's time to get to the pick section of extra point taken. All right. So like where are we after last week? What happened last week. I blacked out. I don't even know. Shail, after week seven, or excuse me, after week six, we were tied.

And then after week seven, which was our nothing burger week, where we both totally blanked, we were still tied. And then in week eight, I went five points, you went two points. But then in the following week, I went two points, you went five points. We were tied after week nine. After week ten, we are tied. It's all for content. We're doing this on purpose. How? How do we tied?

This is wild. Precisely windowing a neck-to-neck finish. To keep the listeners engaged, baby, keep you locked in. Keep you looking at the sheet. Keep you listening to the shows. I scored two points. You scored two points. I had two of my locks of the week hit.

That was the 49ers on the road against the Jags and the Vikings at home against the Saints. I had Lions minus three against the Chargers and it pushed, but for the way that we keep scored in this particular contest, wins only. The push is a loss. So if there's a tie all the way at the end of the season, then I will count myself as winning because of the push.

Personally, I had Lions minus two and a half, so we're fine, to worry about that. that. You won Vikings plus three at home against the Saints, which means once again the consensus for Ben and Shield, the duplicate. Nice and strong. Maybe we'll have one this week, too. And then over 41.5 receiving yards for George Pickens came in, I think at 44 yards by the hair on his chin-e-chin-chin. We, yeah, so we had two points for each. We're 29 points each on the season. I'm hitting locks at 53%. You're hitting locks at 47% right now, so we're at 48% total. We still have plenty of season to get up to where we want to be. But we do need to get to.

get this wagon moving. You didn't sound very confident. We've been floating around it. We've never been lower than 52%. And so, excuse me, I've never been lower than 52%. We've never been lower than 40%. Yeah. And so we just got to settle in.

You have to stop hitting props because that's useless for us. Turn that energy into lock. We have the same percentage on long shots. We both hit three. And then you're hitting the locks at a higher rate. And I'm hitting the props at a high rate. at a higher rate. And here we are. So, yeah, that's where we're at. And we're coming into this week. And whatever happens to the day, this week will be tied or something else stupid will happen.

It'll be great. I can't believe we're tied after 10. What are the odds of that? I mean, very, very low. All right. All right. So for those of you who are new to the contest, we each choose a prop of the week. And then we have three locks of the week, which are just picks against the spread. Each of those are worth one point. And then we have a long shot. Now, people who are getting out of saying, don't call it a long shot, it's only plus 150. Should we change the name to like, you know, they were saying maybe should change the rules and get two points. I'm like, we can't change the rules in the middle of the thing.

Should we call just call it the bunny ball, pick of the week? I don't like you're about to fire a packet people. What if somebody misses this episode and then they come in next week? That's true. I just think it all right. Listen, if we did like plus 250, we would never hit and nothing would happen. We're grading on a scale here. Plus 150.

We've missed plenty, all right? Plus 150 implies like 40% chance And neither one of us is at that So don't worry It's a long shot for Shil and I It's a long shot for us I like that It's a long shot for us

We're going to keep calling it a long shot It might not be a long shot In exact gambling terms All right What do you have Benjamin Solak for your prop of the week this week? It has to be minus 130 or higher I'm doing plus 101 8

All right because I live on the edge Oh Aaron Jones have at least three and a half catches against the Los Angeles Chargers. Green Bay Packers, facing the Chargers. They're at home. The Packers are three-point underdogs.

I might be talking about that more later. As it is, Aaron Jones, in the last four games that he's played, five targets, five targets, six targets, six targets. He's had three, four, four, and four receptions. We are looking at a Chargers defense that is bottom six in success rate against backs in terms of passing plays. When the back is targeted,

the Chargers are one of the weakest defense. defenses in the league. That's the nature of their linebacker, the nature of the players that go and go and, uh, and go to cover those backs out of the backfield. Jones in particular gets used with design, it gets used with intention. They will call plays for Jones to catch the football where he is the primary target getter. And they do that to kind of protect Jordan Love and help this offense move incrementally down the field. I looked at like Rush Plus reception yards. Maybe they're going to use him a ton as a ball carrier. Chargers run defense has been better this season. So I don't if I want to go that direction. Receiving yards at 24 and a half. I tend to like to take receptions

of receiving yards for backs because you never know. They get that target two yards behind the line of scrimmage. They get tackled. You know, all of a sudden, you're looking for an explosive game for a back. So over three and a half receptions at plus one away, I'm still going to take. He's going to get a lot of high percentage targets. I think the Packers are going to be in a dropback game script in this game. And so I like the idea of Jones. If the Packers hold the ball during a two-minute drill at some point, Jones getting two catches. And I'm feeling like we're already halfway there. So Aaron Jones, over three and a half receptions of Packers against Chargers. All right.

Our prop is in the same game. So we're going to be locked in to Packer's Chargers. I think this, I think you will agree this belongs in my. Sheel says this is the, what do I say? The stupidest bet. Stupidest bet of the week where that's somewhere on this spreadsheet where Luke actually Charmed. Stupidest bet of the season, Shield's three for four. When I say that it's the stupidest bed of the season, I'm over one.

All right. I think you're actually going to agree this is the stupidest bad of the season. I'm going Christian Watson over 37 and a half receiving yards in this game. So I'm building off my thought process from last week. You remember last week, George Pickens, it was the squeaky wheel. I'm going to find a second year, second round receiver who's tall and long and fast. And that's going to be my whole method from here on now.

Last week, George Pickens, it was the squeaky wheel gets the grease. You know, you got to feed him a little bit, and he hit the over. So this week, in Green Bay, this Jordan Love, Christian Watson story is like a big deal. I mean, I was reading all the beat writers coverage this week, and this was like the biggest story of the week. So last week, Jordan Love targets Christian Watson seven times, completes two of those passes, also throws two interceptions on those seven targets on this season. This is from ESPN, stats and information. Watson has caught 42% of his targets from Jordan Love.

That's the worst catch rate for a wide receiver targeted at least 30 times this season. You're saying, shield. You're not really, you know, making me pumped about taking the over for Christian Watson. No one's going to take this side. You always want to be on the side. No one's going to take. Who else besides me would be dumb enough after that, after those numbers, to take Christian Watson over 37 and a half.

So some of your, you know, reasoning for Aaron Jones applies here. Chargers have just given up the second most passing yards in the NFL. They're 27th in defensive DVOA. They're 25th against the past. They've allowed the fourth most completions of 20 plus yards. So maybe I can just get this bad boy on the first drive. Just launch one out there. Get me a nice 38-yarder.

And let's just be able to relax and enjoy a nice NFL Sunday for once. Please, Matt LaFleur, dial that bad boy up. So there you go. That's my pick. Christian Watson over 37 and a half receiving it. This is so funny because it's going to be, Aaron Jones has three catches. Watson has like four yards.

It's going to be a play in the fourth quarter, like designed shot play where Jones leeks out in the flat and is wide open. And meanwhile, Watson's streaking down the field and you're watching at home like, Watson, Watson, Watson, I'm watching, I'm like, check it out, check it out, check it out. It's all going to come down to that one play. That's my bonus nonsense prediction of the week.

Yeah, I Watson is not a player that I love super much coming out of the draft and the way that he's played in Green Bay has kind of been as I expect him to play out in North Dakota State. Big, but I'm playing big. Fast, but isn't great at using it down the field.

Like, it's Marquezvada scantling stuff and they spent pick 34 overall to go get him. Justice Mosqueda, who's my favorite Packers follow, tweeted out a chart that he took of all the Packers primary targets at this point, Jada Reed, Donatavian, Wicks, Musgrave, Romeo Dobbs, and Justin Watson, or Christian Watson, excuse me. The catch rate is, like you said, super low.

He's got one touchdown to five interceptions, Jordan Love does, while targeting Christian Watson. Otherwise, he is 12 touchdowns for four interceptions for his other fast catcher. I don't know how much longer. The disaster. I don't know how much long. I know you think Christian Watson gets fed at least one more week. I'm not sure Christian Watson's getting fed at least one more week.

Is that why? Well, I mean, he's had over 37 and a half like once this season. Again, no one is going to take this bad. That makes me feel so much better about it. I thought about Christian. I thought about like Christian McCaffrey. And I'm like, come on. Christian McCaffrey, everybody wants to take over.

No, I might come back to that in one of the later ones. But for this, Christian Watson, just check one up to him. By the way, I thought Jordan Love played like his best game last week. All right, two interceptions, bad in the red zone. Okay, we start here. Two receptions is bad. We start that. He looked more comfortable.

he was making throws. They were moving the football pretty consistently against that Steelers' defense. They had two drives inside the red zone in the fourth quarter where if they score on one of those,

again, I know they ended at interceptions, but if they score on one of those, they win that game and the narrative this week is a little bit different. So I just wanted to mention that as well, some signs of life, at least. Yeah, this is like a good, like,

let's get a take out. That's not big enough to be a take on the show, but also like we've been thinking about it. This, like, the more I watch Jordan Love, the more I realize how dramatic the recalibration from Aaron Rogers to Jordan Love was. I don't think there's two more different quarterbacks in the league than Aaron Rogers, who's like exactness.

Let me control everything. Let me know where everybody is. If you're off by one step, I'm going to throw it inaccurately just to point out to you that you were wrong. To Jordan Love, who's just like, you want to see me throw this ball 40 yards across my body. Like, Jordan Love really, I didn't understand until I see enough games and some games with downfield throws and underneath throws. like, you know, different defenses. Jordan loves really, like, he is a dude perfect trick shot artist out there.

He's just yuck into the thing. He is very much living on adjusted platforms and weird arm angles and challenging throws out of structure stuff. Such that, like, you can see why Matliflor's got steam coming out of his ears because it has taken them literally two months to figure out, like, okay, this is how we were used to doing offense. But this cat is so different than Rogers that, like, every single week is like a reimagination or readjustment down, okay, how is this offense going to work with their quarterback?

play style. It is day and night in terms of how they play. And so it's not surprising me. Packers are, we're in week 11. They're the youngest offense in the league by adjusted age per snap. They are still figuring stuff out. They are still at the stage of like, I wonder if we do this. We are that far into the season, but that's how much of a difference it's been from last year to this year. Yeah, I remember us talking about that in like the first three, three weeks of the season, that that might be how it goes. By the way, nice jump. Matt. I saw Matt LaFlor like explained what happened on a specific interception and good detail. coaches. We talk about Doug Peterson.

On Monday night, you're allowed to do it. You know, you're not going to get stung by a B or something. If you explain what happened on a play, the player's feelings aren't going to be hurt. You're telling them in the film room anyway. It leads to less confusion among the media, among the fans. Everybody appreciates it. So, nice

job, Matt LaFlor. All right. Long shot of the week. I have a doozy here. I might have been affected by the fact that that Bengals Ravens game wasn't competitive in the fourth quarter and I had time to go on Fandul a little bit Again, this is the Capadia and Solac long shot. It might not be a long shot for you.

It's a long shot for us. We're not doing very good at this. It has to be plus 150 or better. What do you got? All right. We're parliads, John. All right. Dolphins money line, minus 820, whatever.

We're getting that one in there. Dolphins are playing the Raiders this week. Dallas money line, minus 670, playing the Panthers this week. All of that to get the Steelers money line from plus 100 to plus $1.5. 54 total. Steelers win, dolphins win, Cowboys win, all of that together is plus 154 total. The Steelers are currently dogs to the Browns. I think wild. That's wrong. Here's why I think that wild. I don't know. Listen, I'm not going to sit here and explain to you why the Steelers win games, because that can't be done. I'm just going to say that they do as, you know, the sun rises in

the east and sets in the West so the Steelers end up with more points than the other team when the clock at zero. They get Dorian Thompson Robinson this week, who I understand that, oh, the last time he started, he kind of got thrown in there, and he didn't know he was going to start, and this is going to be better. I watched a lot of DTR at UCLA. I watched DTR in the league. I don't think that he can manage the offense the way they need him to. I don't think he can avoid the mistakes they need him to. I think he's going to be very liable for sacks against the Steelers pass rush with the offensive tackle situation as dire as it is in Cleveland. I don't think Cleveland can successfully chugged the ball away in the ground game as they did when they had Nick Chubb.

You're not seeing that level of consistency from Jerome Ford and from Kareem Hunt. I think it's going to be a real tough day for the Browns moving the football. And so Steelers plus one and a half will be showing up for me later in this pod. But for a long shot of the week, I do have Steelers, Cowboys and Dolphins all to win at plus one. I am not allowed to touch the Steelers in any of my any locks of the week for the rest of the season. So I will not be. The one guy, the one guy in all of sports media who is two to two, to, two, to, resting in the Steelers and is getting burned for it.

Incredible. I picked them to make the playoffs. They make the playoffs. Actually, it's not true. You're not the only guy. They'll have them to be first seen in the AFC. Honestly, at this rate, they're going to be. You're going to be 14 and 3 with like a minus 2,000-yard differential.

The home field advantage first round by. I was in on the Steelers future week to week. I have no idea what's happening there. That game just scares me. I'm looking at it. Like, wait, they're, like you said, they're underdogs. A rookie quarter. If it was a rookie quarter, if they had their tackle,

if they had Nick Chubb, like I could probably talk myself into it. I'm like, wait a minute, they're banged up on the offensive line. They don't have Chub out. I don't know. They'll probably do something. Have you, do you know what the total is for that game off the top of your head? No, let me guess. Is it, it's got to be under, like 39 and a half?

Take a whole touchdown away and you'd be right. What? It's 32 and a half. Oh my God. It's Iowa Northwestern total. All right, we heard an dire strait. I was going to say 36. And then I'm like, is that too low?

32 and a half. Oh, my gosh. All right. At first I thought we might have similar ones here. So, okay, so here's what I did. I teased earlier how the Christian McCaffrey one would be too much of a square pick. But you know what? For a long shot, I'm going to get it in there.

So I've got Christian McCaffrey over 66 and a half rushing yards as the first leg of this bad boy. There will be two more legs. But the 49ers play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last year, these two teams played, Christian McCaffrey had 14 carries for 119 yards. It's not a bad run defense, but last week we saw McCaffrey did to the Jaguars, who were a good run defense coming in, and he still had 95 yards against them. So I thought about just making it a straight. What's the number I need to get to to get to plus 150 for McCaffrey?

And it was like 90 yards, and then it ended up being like plus 200 or something. So I'm like, well, don't do that, chill. You don't need to like, you know, cheat yourself there. Instead, I'm doing over 66.6 and a half rushing yards. Then we're going to the same two games, Soak went to. Well, we're doing a little alternate spread because I need to get them down a little. We're taking dolphins minus two and a half versus the Raiders. They don't have to cover that 12 and a half, just cover two and a half.

Mike McDaniel. And then Cowboys cover one and a half at Carolina. That's it. So we think those. You and I both go into those two games to just get the number where we want it to be. is very, Cowboys fans and Dolph's fans are listening to this like, oh God, no. If you are listening to this,

go right now to Fandul and parlay, Panthers Money Line with the Raiders Money Line and, you know, treat yourself to a nice holiday bonus here because that is definitely bound to happen. So there you go. Christian McCaffrey, over 66.5 rushing yards. Dolphins alternate, this is, I mean, this is true degenerate behavior here.

Dolphins alternate spread minus two and a half first of Raiders, Cowboys alternate spread minus one and a half at Carolina those three things add up to plus 151 qualifies for the long

shot of the week I'm so proud of you that you're like you did this to me you did this to me he was starting out with like instead of Bengals minus three and a half

no I'll tell you exactly no it wasn't even that week one you know what it was what? Rams money line that's it that was the bet and it hit

by the way. Says plus 150. Perfect. Now I'm like, okay, so three legs adjusted lines. I'm so proud of you. Like a father to his son.

It's beautiful. Oh my gosh. This is not good. All right. Nonsense prediction of the week before we get to our locks. What do you got? Panthers offensive play caller will change at half time.

Why not? I'm so dumb with this. So for those who didn't follow it, Panthers head coach Frank Reich was the play call. caller for the team entering the season. His offensive coordinator was Thomas Brown, who's not a guy that he worked with. He came off of the Rams, coach, his staff, coach running backs, coach tight ends.

He's kind of like a new voice in the building, right? Well, you know, you all been watching. The Panthers were terrible. So the first six weeks of the season, it's not going super great. Frank Wright gives up play calling. Always great to give up play calling in October, right? That's the sign of a healthy team. And gave it to Thomas Brown.

They come out of the bi-week, win against the Texans, the playoff-bound Texans, 16 to 15 or 15 to 12, whatever it was. Oh, incredible. Like, offense is solved. And then the last couple of weeks, turns out the offense still looks pretty rough. And so earlier this week, Frank Reich was asked, play-call the situation, what's it going to be?

And he said, we're still evaluating. We don't know. We had kind of a long week, played the Bears on Thursday night. We might make a change. And then earlier today is the recording on Thursday, revealed I will be taking play-calling back. Thomas Brown got three weeks to try play-calling,

and now Frank Reich's going to do it again. Sure. I mean, like, again, number one job is to keep the job. You're trying to do what you can to show offensive improvement to maybe keep the Panthers coaching staff in place for next season. I think we're all kind of dancing around the real reason why the Panthers offense isn't so good, that quarterback. But this is what you can't really change the fact that this is your guy and you have the guys around that you do and you need to improve the roster. Absolutely. This is really the only thing you can change midseason. so they're making these changes. I would not be surprised if at all,

because like Frank Wreck talked about evaluating the process and whatever, that we get to the end of the game against the Cowboys, they got beat 43 to 9. And he's up at the podium being like, well, actually, we did a collaborative play calling where I called first and second down and Thomas Brown called third down. And then when we got into third and 12 plus,

Parks Fraser, the passing game corner, like it's give me some sort of nonsense, you know, three headset, red zone, magical division of labor, whatever. the Panthers play caller situation to me is a sign of a coaching staff that knows they're a little bit dead in the water and an offense that is absolutely no direction. You know, this isn't good.

We're on the same page for too many things. Oh, yeah? Also, I have a Panthers one as well. Like, how we're not going to, we're not touching like half the games on this slate. That's one. Yeah. Well, there are a lot of bad games on this slate. So I don't have any that I feel too bad about here. All right. So my prediction is that David Tepper's name, will be, you know, on ESPN.com, they got the headline stack there on the right. That's like prime territory. You know, you got to be big news to get in there. David Tepper's name will be in there for something on Monday morning because I'm kind of with you. Like, this is a clear sign that a team has no answers and that he like Frank Reich has to show basically that he can get something going in the

right direction with Bryce Young for the remainder of the season to keep his job. I mean, that is just absolutely what it feels like here. To go back and forth within three weeks. I mean, they had the whole thing after they beat the Texans in the locker room. Like, you know, give it up for Thomas Brown. Like, first leg, like, oh, man, it just, yeah, it does not have a good smell around whatever is happening there. So David Tepper is watching this saying, I hired Frank Reich.

I hired this staff, which I think I was reading Joe Person and the athletic made the point like a very well-compensated staff. He threw in there, which, you know, that's interesting. Rich guys don't like to just be, you know, throwing their money around for teams that are... I mean, Dave Pepper's just been chucking money at Kat since the day he had... Yeah. Panthers, man, it's something. And they can't do anything.

So he's watching Bryce Young look like this. He's watching C.J. Stroud look like that. He's watching the supporting cast. It's all piling up. And so I don't know what the headline's going to be. It could be, you know, Reich has long closed door meeting. Tepper holds long closed door meeting with Reich after I'm. embarrassing loss to Cowboys. It could be, you know, Tepper is, says he'll evaluate everything,

you know, after big, I don't know. It could be, I wouldn't even be surprised if this was like a Sunday morning, you know, Jay Glazer coming out to David Tepper has already started, you know, vetting potential replacements for Frank. Right. It just feels like the way it's going to go. I mean, this game, Panthers Cowboys, are we going to have a bigger talent disparity just in terms of like the players on the field all season long? they're going to get like it the idea that like this is a critical performance for the offensive coaching staff and it's against the cowboy's defense is just laughable they have no chance the best six players on the field when the panthers offense lines up against the cowboy's defense

will be Dallas Cowboys players yeah what are you gonna do man I mean like there's only so much scheming gets you you know this is going to drive me nuts because last year the broncos should have fired Nate Hackett and let Jiro Evereux the team and they didn't and then he finally left and Jerry Roseberg got the job. And then this year, Giro Evers, the DC of the Panthers. And they're going to go, they're going to fire Frank Reich and like, you know, Duce Duce Daly is going to do it. Which like, Duce would be great. I love Duce, like, his assistant head coach. He's the running backs coach right now. Duce has been an assistant head coached for like, he deserves a shot to be like on the interim mic for a while. But I'm just going to be

screaming like, just somebody let Jero Evereux a team. I think he might be a genius. And I don't think they're going to let him do it. You're driving me crazy. A Jiro. Whatever at Jiro's agent is, hit me up. We got to have a chat. I want to do more for you. I want to get this guy in the headset. He should be the interim. Where can he go? Where will,

where might there be? Maybe he'll go to Baltimore. Next year, Mike McDonald. Who knows? Mike McDonald, head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, Jiro Everwood, D.C. the Ravens. Oh, all right. Listen.

We have a lot of takes to get off the rest of the way. Do not waste them in like that, like the one hour mark here. All right, let's take one more break. We'll come back with our locks at the week. All right, we are back with our locks of the week. All right, Benny Sol.

So I've got, let's see, I've got two that I'm definitely going with. And then I've got two that I'm picking between for my third one. So we'll see how this goes. I've been struggling. I'm a volume shooter, as I've told you. All right. What do you got for your first one? Yeah, I like this slate a lot.

I have more on spreads this week than I typically do. There's two that I'm for sure I'm taking this week for. for our contest. One is Steelers plus one and a half. Like I said, I like them to straight up win that game. I think that the Dorian Thompson-Robinson disadvantage is a big one.

I don't think the Browns, I'm assuming you have the Steelers, by the way. I don't have it, but have you taken the Steelers in this contest? Because it is not fun when Kenny, when that offense has the football

and you have the Steelers. I'm just telling you that. I don't need to be invested in the Steelers in this contest for me to say it's not fun and not have a good time. Let's see. In terms of Steelers' bets, I've taken them on the road

against the Raiders and they've covered. I've taken the Ravens on the road against them and they didn't cover. That was the multiple defensive touch-shund. Oh, I hate these Steelers, man. You've taken either them or their opponent four times, I want to say, and you've lost every single.

Five times. You've lost every single one. Is that right? See, I told you. I'm not allowed to take them anymore. Loss. Week four, Steelers to cover against the Texans on the road. Loss.

All right. this is just mean. We don't need to go. Rams at home against the Steelers loss. Week eight, Steelers at home against the Jaguars, loss. Four times. Four times.

You've taken the Steelers, a game with the Steelers four times loss of the week and you're over for. I am telling you, I am not allowed to pick them in this contest the rest of the season. Done. I'll pick them in the column.

You can read the ringer.com. You can read it there. I'm not allowed to pick them in this column. The Steelers plus one and a half is definitely one of mine. Okay. Dolphins minus 12 and a half against the Raiders at home is another one that I like a lot. Dolphins are coming off of the buy. This offense, people talk about winning records, losing records.

When this offense runs into a bad defense, they tend to just absolutely steamroll them. Even when they want to take their foot off the gas, they can't because they just have so much team speed. Critically running back Devon A. Shane expected to be back for this game. I think that's huge for this team. He's there. He's running between the tackles. That's still going to be Rahim Moster. A. Shane is a trick shot guy.

He's a constraint play guy, but he is legitimately one of the top three, top five home run hitters in the league where he gets that reverse and it's going to be a 14-yard gain and then all of a sudden it's a 70-yard touchdown. That's meaningful, even for this offense with all the talent it has. Also worthy of note, Dolphins defense, Jalen Ramsey back, Jalen Phillips back. They've been improving week over week. They've been getting better as they've settled into the system. You got a rookie quarterback in Aden O'Connell. I think it should be really tough for the Raiders to move the football. So Dolphins minus 12 and a half is the other one that I like.

And then, like I said, third one, I have a bunch. that I'm thinking through. You want me to one through them now or you want to talk to yours? No, let me tell you the two that I'm doing because one of them, I'm on the dolphins too. So here we go. We're what, three for four when we're on the same side? Yeah. Okay, we're three for four when we're on the same side. Minus 12 and a half against the Raiders. I like that one too. By the way, my favorite part of that Raiders game last week was like, they went to Melissa Stark like three different times. And every time she had a story from Josh Jacobs about like what he didn't like about Josh McDeer. I'm like, even I'm kind of thinking this is like me to this one, but it was kind of hilarious. They had the one clip where he was like,

every week they would ask me what runs I wanted, and then I would tell them, and then they wouldn't do any of them. And then this, the flattering that Tonyo Pierce was the first week it's ever happened. I was so happy for him. That's great for you, man. Yeah, that was, uh, that was something there. So, uh, this Raiders team, they've won two in a row, but man, this, this Dolphins offense is a different animal.

Like you said, Ben, Dolphins at home, four no this year. And all four wins have been by. at least 14 points. And I agree with your point about the defense. That defense has been coming on. They are a lot better now than they were early in the season, which is probably to be expected with a Vic Pangeo coach team. So I don't think that Raiders offense is going to be very successful. And the Dolphins, it's like, I like taking the dolphins because they can turn it over on like their first three possessions. And I'll still be like, all right, I think I'm in okay shape that they're going to cut. They're a very fun team to take. Now, they'll probably lose this one after I said.

said that. But so far the season, they've been a very fun team to me. All right. Other one I'm definitely taking Titans plus seven at the Jacksonville. We have spent a lot of time talking about the Jacksonville. I just, listen, maybe the Jaguars get it together and they blow them out of the water. I could see that, but I haven't seen enough from this Jaguars team to trust them to cover seven at home against this Titans team. I mean, I gave the stat out earlier this week that Trevor Lawrence, the pressures are turning into sacks at a very high rate compared to previous years. They've turned the football over an opponent's territory more than any other team in the NFL, the offense.

There are schematic issues that you laid out well on that Monday show. And then defensively, I think we're both in the same boat going into, like, the numbers are really good on the Jaguar's defense. Do you trust the Jaguars defense? Because I don't. And I'm still in that boat. So I know the Titans offense didn't look good last week against the Bucks, but we'll see what it looks like this week against Jacksonville. I just feel like it's a big number.

It's a division game. Mike Rabel as an underdog. I like being on that side. So I've got Titans plus seven as my other guaranteed lock. Yeah. Now, Titans are one of my liens as well. I, this Jaguars team is a tricky team to figure out. Titans, man, I do not like what I saw in offense against the Buccaneers. Super, super disjointed. That was a game where I like I had the Derek Henry prop in this conversation in this show. I had Will Levis passing over as I mentioned and they were just so, so, so

unable to get any planes off the ground. That's what it looks like when you're in a high volatility passing offense. Sometimes you're just like, all right, we're nowhere right now passing the football. I think against Jacksonville should be a little bit easier, but we'll see.

I mean, like Levis behind this offensive line when you can pressure him, it gets pretty ugly, pretty quick. Titans, I like, I don't think I'm going to take them. There are two teams that are tough for me to figure out right now. All right. I've got two more.

I'm debating between, I feel like one of them is definitely one year thinking about. I don't know if the other one is. So I'll just tell you. The two I'm thinking about are Chargers minus three at Green Bay, which I should probably have the Chargers on that Steelers list, where I just stay away, shield. Do not get sucked in, but I do like that one.

Quite a bit. I mean, their offense looked awesome last week against Detroit. These scored touchdowns on their final five possessions. The week before, I was like, you know what? Justin Herbert is turned into a boring quarterback. And then they come out in that game. And it's like, okay, he's not boring anymore. He's still got this in him.

He's throwing fireball after fireball in that game. Keenan Allen, I think is injured, but he's expected to play in this game. So I like that one. Then the other one I'm looking at is the game we mentioned earlier. Cowboys minus 10.5 at the Panthers. Big number for a road favorite. But like I said earlier, I just don't know that there's a bigger talent disparity in a game this season than in that game.

And the Cowboys are generally pretty good as front runners, as favorite. with Dak Prescott. They poured on and I just, I watched that Panthers offense. And in my head, I like can't envision a scenario where they're stringing together two scoring drives with like multiple first downs. Now, you get that thought in your head and then you sit down Sunday and something different happens. But those are the two I'm thinking about.

What do you got? Yeah. Cowboys Panthers is the thing I'm really worried about there is just a panther super tryhard back door, which they've hit at points in the season where they're just doing everything they can to produce as much offensive as possible even when the game is as away. I think the cowboys are well suited to drop a lot on that team, but I do think like the Cowboys aren't so much the Dolphins and how easily they drop points on bad teams. We just kind of think they are because they play the Giants twice. So we're like, oh, when the Cowboys are going, they score 40.

Not really. Like actually, it's just they get that Giants team and they've been really good against that giant's defense. And so that's one where like I lean cowboys. That's not particularly on my list. Chargers minus three absolutely is. If you take it, I won't take it. I'll do another one. I checked.

I'm three one on one. Ben Chargers games for our contest at this point. This is such a great charger spot because they want to establish the run and have attempted to do so. And they've tried to be a balanced team. They've generally been really bad running the football. But when you face the Joe Barry defense, you're automatically good at running the football.

And when you run the football well for this Chargers team, and you don't have to be behind the sticks, and Herbert doesn't have to protect, and he can just shoot, shoot from the pocket. I mean, like, Herbert,

this Herbert season is, it's so good. He's throwing the ball so well, even with the wide receiver injuries. It feels like they're going to put a ton of points on the Packers. So charges minus three is a look for me for sure. All right. I'm taking it.

You gave me the offer. Go for it. I know who I want my number three. I've got Chargers minus three versus Packers, Dolphins minus 12 and a half versus Raiders and Titans plus seven at Jackson Room. I feel good. I feel good about these three this week.

I'm bouncing back. Just give me a two and one. I'm not even asking for a three and a hour. Just give me a two and one. All right, what are you going with? Now that you so generously in the holiday season gave me charges minus three. I'm going to take the Rams at home plus one

against the Seahawks. Now, this line opened. Look ahead was more than a field goal. When it reopened after Sunday, it was a little bit less than a fueled goal. And so line-wise, like there were better prices and that's that's what I have in pocket for me. But even at plus one, I'm still, I'm still willing to take it.

Matthew Stafford's going to play in this game. Pooka and Akua, who is a limited participant on Wednesday, but a full participant on Thursday is expected to play in this game. The Rams are in a spot where they have their triumbrate. They have cut Puka and Stafford. And when they've had that this year, they've been extremely frisky bordering on, you know, runaway potential, like offensive shootout potential. They can just put points and put points on you.

We've seen the Seahawks now be liable to giving up those games against opposing quarterbacks. They're not a bad pass defense by any stretch. They're generally they're good against the numbers. But this is just a secondary where like Rik Wallen has been getable over the course of this career, of course of the season, Jamal Adams has been banged up. He's going to play potentially, but you can get Jamal Adams in coverage as well. Tyler Lockett, not practice Wednesday, didn't practice on Thursday,

essentially out for this game. Plus you in a spot where it's D.K. Metcalf is having a weird season. Jackson Smith and Jigba, who they kind of have to facilitate touches from the slot to get him going. Jake Bobo, who's awesome, but also like two targets a game, and then the tight ends. And like I said, when we talked to Steelers Rams, this, this Rams team, I like your ability to get their defense when you can win your outside matchups with your wide receivers. Otherwise, they've actually been like a surprisingly stout defense. They've been better against tight ends of running backs and in the pass rush.

And if there's no Tyler Lockett with the way that Metcalf has played and, Gino and him haven't been on the same page. I honestly don't really like the Seahawks' ability to kind of move the ball at will the way you'd expect. I still think it's going to be decently high points. You're going to see some explosives. You can see that ground game get going for the Seahawks. But I do feel like these teams are fairly evenly matched.

I get home field for the Rams. I get Stafford coming back healthy. I like Los Angeles to cover. I'm on that side too in my column and I'm looking at the spreadsheet. When Solek has a lock that coincides with my pick and the picks column, hit 60% of the time. That's nice.

Both of his picks, Steelers and Rams, coincide with my picks column, and I didn't pick them. So maybe that's the sweet spot. I'm too dumb to pick the right picks for this contest, but I have them somewhere in the Ringer universe. So there you go. And I agree with pretty much everything you said there.

I know someone asked us about our Monday show. You were talking about the hierarchy in the NFC, and we didn't mention the Seahawks. And someone was like, how could you go through that? I don't have the Cs. I don't have the Seahawks in that class right now with the with the Lions, Cowboys, Niners, and Eagles. I think they are a step down. I still need to see more from them.

Dan Al with that, you know, drive at the end there. I don't know. It's just been a little bit uneven for me. I think they're a good team. I don't know that they're a great team. And I like the Rams in this spot, assuming that like Matt Stafford can, you know, accurately throw a football with that thumb. That makes me a little bit nervous coming off a thumb injury.

But yeah, when he's healthy with those with those past. catching options. I like that passing game quite a bit. All right. They lost to the Rams in week one, right? And to address the, you know, the Seahawks contention point, it took a pick six to get to overtime to beat the Lions, right? And then one score game against the Bengals, one score game that they lost, excuse me, one score game late against the Browns that they tried to throw away, hugely demolished by the Ravens, one score game against the commanders, they tried to throw away. Like, you want to be considered a good team, beat some good teams and beat them resoundingly, right? Shut me up with the performance. They have

Rams, Niners, Cowboys, Niners, Eagles is their next five. The Seahawks are legit. If the Seahawks are legit, she'll and I will be the first to let you know. All right, we will tell you. Because they're both picked them to win the NFC West. Yeah, and, and they're about to play the games that are going to show us what exactly they got, what they're made of. And so, uh, I would love for the Seahawks to be legit. I'm a big, you know, guy. I think the job Pete's doing up there is unbelievable. Pakes Seahawks win the division. But we're about to test the medal of this team over the next month. I'm excited to see it. It's so weird. The two things that you and I agreed on before the season that appear to be the most right are probably the Jaguars and the Seahawks.

And me and you everywhere are like, no, we don't really buy them. I, um, yeah, I listen, I, there are two things that I believed this preseason. I believed in Lamar. I believed in the Dolphins two in the division. And I'm just going to ride those and ignore every other preseason prediction. Those are my two big ones. And we're feeling. I'm good so far. I only had one that the Browns were going to have a good defense. I didn't say anything about any other team. All right.

Don't look it up. To recap, I've got my prop of the week, Christian Watson, over 37.5 receiving yards. My long shot of the week. Christian McCaffrey, over 66.5 rushing yards. Dolphins alternate spread minus two and a half first raiders. Cowboys alternate spread minus one and a half at Carolina. Those three get you to plus 151. and my locks of the week, Titans plus seven at Jacksonville,

dolphins minus 12.5 first, the Raiders, and the Chargers minus three at Green Bay. What do you got? Yeah, I'm going to take Aaron Jones to have over three and a half catches from my prop of the week. And for my long shot of the week, I need the Steelers, the Cowboys, and the Dolphins all to just win outright. Against the Fred, I am taking the Steelers plus one and a half.

The Dolphins minus 12 and a half. And my last one was the Rams, plus one at home against the Steelers. Doubling up on Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada. could go wrong. Doubling up on not Doreon Thompson. That's what we're doubling up on. All right. Thank you to Benjamin Solek.

Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thanks to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ram Gopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday night recapping all of the week 11 games. Be sure to check that out. All right.

Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend. And we will talk to you next week. One extra point. Must be 21 plus and present. select states. Fandwell's offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 100, Next Step, 2,3,3, 3rd, 2 in Arizona.

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